THE FIELD POLL

Release #2464 By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation

601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline

Release Date: Thursday, April 10, 2014 IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

CALIFORNIA VOTER VIEWS OF THE STATE LEGISLATURE TURN NEGATIVE AFTER ARREST OF STATE SENATOR LELAND YEE.

In the aftermath of the corruption scandals now affecting three State Senators, California voters have changed their views about the performance of the legislature. The Field Poll was in the midst of updating voter opinions of the state legislature when news broke on March 26 of the arrest of Democratic State Senator Leland Yee. On that date the F.B.I along with dozens of local and state police arrested Yee for trafficking in Philippine arms and taking bribes from undercover F.B.I. agents. A comparison of the Polls interviews conducted prior to Yees arrest to those completed after his arrest shows a public reappraisal of the legislatures overall performance. During the week immediately prior to Yees arrest, 46% of voters approved and 40% disapproved of the legislature's performance, a finding that showed continuing improvement from previous Field Polls conducted over the past two years. However, following Yees arrest, voter sentiment of the legislature has turned negative. The proportion of voters expressing disapproval jumped six points from 40% to 46%, and now is greater than the proportion approving (43%), which declined three points. Thus, voter opinions of the legislature swung a net nine points in the negative direction in the days following news of Yee's arrest. Yees arrest followed scandals plaguing two other Democratic State Senators, Ron Calderon and Rod Wright, earlier in the year. In January, a Los Angeles jury found Wright guilty of lying about whether the location of his home was within the district he was running for office in the 2008 election. In February Calderon was indicted on charges that he accepted $100,000 in bribes and gifts. While these two prior cases were well-reported in the press, the extraordinary coverage given Yees arrest refocused media attention to the Calderon and Wright scandals. The cumulative effect of these scandals has damaged the standing of the legislature in the publics eyes, especially among Republican and non-partisan voters. Among these two voter segments, majorities now view the legislature negatively, with Republicans holding a 65% to 26% negative
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view. By contrast, rank-and-file Democrats continue to approve of the Democratically-controlled legislature by a two-to-one margin (58% to 29%). Table 1 Trend of voter appraisals of the job the state legislature is doing (among registered voters) March 27-April 5, 2014 (after news of Yee arrest) March 18-26, 2014 (before news of Yee arrest) December 2013 February 2013 September 2012 July 2012 Late May 2012 February 2012 November 2011 September 2011 June 2011 March 2011 September 2010 July 2010 March 2010 January 2010 October 2009 April 2009 March 2009 September 2008 July 2008 May 2008 2007 (average) 2006 (average) 2005 (average) 2004 (average) 2003 (average) 2002 (average) 2001 (average) 2000 (average) 1999 (average) 1998 (average) 1997 (average) 1996 (average) 1995 (average) 1993 (average) 1992 (average) 1990 (average) 1988 (average) 1983 (average) Party registration (after news of Yee arrest) Democrats Republican No party preference/other* Approve 43% 46% 40% 36% 25% 23% 19% 22% 22% 20% 23% 16% 10% 16% 13% 16% 13% 14% 18% 15% 27% 30% 38% 30% 28% 28% 25% 40% 43% 48% 45% 45% 38% 41% 34% 28% 32% 45% 57% 43% 58% 26% 38% Disapprove 46 40 44 51 56 64 64 64 62 65 64 70 80 74 78 72 78 74 72 73 57 57 43 50 55 53 59 40 37 25 28 33 40 49 59 64 64 48 36 49 29 65 52 No opinion 11 14 16 13 19 13 17 14 16 15 13 14 10 10 9 12 9 12 10 12 16 13 19 20 17 19 16 20 20 27 27 22 22 10 7 8 4 7 7 8 13 9 10

Note: Surveys prior to 1996 were conducted among all adults. In addition, response scales from these surveys were converted from their original five-point scale to the current two-point approve/disapprove scales for comparative purposes. * Small sample base.

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Opinions of voters' own state legislators remain more positive than negative The Poll also asked voters to assess the job performance of their own representatives in the State Senate and Assembly. The results show that voters apparently make a distinction between their views of the legislature overall and those of their own representatives. After Yee's arrest, more voters said they approved (43%) than disapproved (30%) of the performance of their own State Senator. Even so, the impact of the scandals can still be seen in their assessments, as a slightly larger proportion of voters were critical of their State Senator after Yees arrest (30%) than before (25%). Democrats offer a far more positive appraisal than Republicans, approving of the job their State Senator is doing 58% to 15%. By contrast, Republicans offer a 44% to 30% negative assessment. Table 2 Job performance rating of voters' own representative in the California STATE SENATE (among registered voters) Approve Total registered voters March 27-April 5 (after news of Yee arrest) March 18-26 (before news of Yee arrest) Party registration (after news of Yee arrest) Democrats Republicans No party preference/other 43% 44% 58% 30% 32% Disapprove 30 25 15 44 36 No opinion 27 31 27 26 32

More voters also approve than disapprove of the job performance of their Assembly representative in the legislature. Statewide 40% approve and 24% disapprove of the job their Assembly representative is doing, with 36% offering no opinion. The Poll finds no significant change in opinions toward their Assembly representative between voters interviewed prior to Yees arrest and those polled afterward.

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Table 3 Job performance rating of voters' own representative in the California STATE ASSEMBLY (among registered voters) Approve Total registered voters March 27-April 5 (after news of Yee arrest) March 18-26 (before news of Yee arrest) Party registration (after news of Yee arrest) Democrats Republicans No party preference/other Inclination to re-elect Assembly incumbents There will be elections in all eighty state Assembly districts this year. At present, Democrats hold 55 seats and Republicans 25, a greater than two to one margin. Fifty-seven of these members will be running for re-election as incumbents this year, 41 Democrats and 16 Republicans. When voters living in the districts where incumbents are running were asked whether they are inclined or not inclined to reelect their representative to the Assembly for another term, 41% are inclined, while 30% are disinclined. Another three in ten (29%) are undecided at this time. Democratic voters are much more inclined to re-elect their Assembly representative than Republicans. Statewide 54% of Democratic voters say they would vote to reelect their Assembly representative, while just 17% are not inclined and 29% are undecided. Among Republicans more (40%) are not inclined to re-elect their Assembly representative than inclined (26%). Non-partisan voters are about evenly split (38% inclined and 39% not inclined). The Poll also finds that voters living in Democratic-held districts are more inclined to reelect their Assemblyperson than are voters in Republican-held districts. This is especially true among the registered Democrats living in the Democratic-held districts. 40% 40% 54% 29% 32% Disapprove 24 25 16 34 25 No opinion 36 35 30 37 43

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Table 4 Voter inclination to re-elect their own representative to the State Assembly (among voters in Assembly districts where incumbents are running for re-election) Inclined to re-elect 41% 54% 26% 38% 45% 56% 25% 32% Not inclined to re-elect 30 17 40 39 28 15 49 33 Depends/ undecided 29 29 34 23 27 29 26 35

Total registered voters Party registration of voter Democrats Republicans No party preference/other Party of office holders Democratic-held districts Democratic voters Republican voters Republican-held districts

Note: Partisan subgroup percentages could not be shown for Republican-held districts due to small sample sizes. Results of voter inclination to re-elect their incumbent State Senator could not be examined separately due to the relatively small number of incumbent State Senators running for re-election in 2014 (10).

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Information About The Survey

Methodological Details

The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll completed March 18-April 5, 2014 among a random sample of 1,000 registered voters in California, including 444 conducted March 18-26 before news of Leland Yees arrest had been widely reported in the media, and 556 conducted March 27-April 5 after the news of Yees arrest had been widely reported. Findings of voters living in Assembly districts where incumbents are running for re-election are based on 702 registered voters statewide. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporation's central location telephone interviewing facilities in San Diego. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter from the state's registered voter rolls on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviewing was completed on either a voter's cell phone or a regular landline phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. In this survey about 59% of all voters were contacted on their cell phone, while 41% were contacted on a regular landline phone. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample was weighted to demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Survey findings prior to Yees arrest have a maximum sampling error of +/- 4.8 percentage points, while survey findings obtained after Yees arrest have a maximum sampling error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Findings of voters living in Assembly districts where incumbents are running for re-election have a maximum sampling error of +\- 3.8 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the California state legislature is doing its job? Do you approve or disapprove of the job your current representative in the State Assembly is doing? Do you approve or disapprove of the job your current representative in the State Senate is doing? If your current representative in the California state Assembly was running for re-election this year in your district and the election were being held today, would you be inclined or not inclined to vote to re-elect your representative to the State Assembly?