SOCIAL TYPES IN POSTCOMMUNIST TRANSITION: REFORM AND MIGRATION ATTITUDES

DUMITRU SANDU University o f Bucharest

The post communist double transition to market economy and democracy1 has both a "hard", institutional component, and a "soft", socio-cultural one. So it implies projecting new institutional forms and creating socio-cultural mechanisms of integrating institutions and behaviours. The cultural models of sustaining institutions may be considered as normative structures - norms, roles etc. - or by reporting them to social agents. In the series of this last perspective we find, too, the one of social types. The post communist transition, in the line o f this perspective, also implies a social building process o f new social types. Of course, "new" in the given social context and not in the absolute mode. The entrepreneur, the privatised, the politician in a multi-party system, are social types which have an innovation character in the context o f post communist transition. And, accordingly, their spreading has, to a large degree, the features o f the diffusion o f social innovation. The emergence of the new social types is an answer to the specific challenge which the societal restructuring formulates2. We are talking, on one hand, about the challenge of transition objectives defined through market economy and democracy. On the other hand, the challenge comes from the side o f social problems, associated not only with achieving these objectives but also with gaps, tensions and communist period inertia. Trying to follow the process generating of new social types, we started from two attitudes of maximum social relevance: the attitude towards market and democracy, on the one hand, and the attitude towards migration, on the other hand. The marketisation and democratisation are central processes in the context of changes induced by the East-European revolutions in 1989. Migration is a total social
1The phrase double transition is already present in the synthesis materials on the analyses o f post-communist transition (Centeno, 1994). O f course, democratisation and marketisation are processes o f maximum visibility o f this transition. It is a question if not useful to in clude as a distinct third component o f the postcommunist transition the change in the allo cation process: from a politically conditioned alocation, marked by equalitarian ideology, to performance and equity allocation. A whole series o f social movements in the former communist societies are basically related to this allocation change. 2 Data collection survey was organised for the research project Social Atlas o f Romania, direct ed by Dumitru Sandu at the Center for Urban and Regional Sociology in 1991. For details on the sample see Sandu, De Jong. 1994 ROM. JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY, VI, 1, p. 47-63, 1995, BUCHAREST

48

Dumitru Saudu

phenomenon, comparable as social relevance with the gift (Mauss, 1993). And, as there is empirical evidence of the fact that migration intention is determined also by values o f democracy and free market economy (Sandu, De Jong, 1994) we considered as base hypotheses o f the study the following statements: 1. pro-reform and migration attitudes represent essential dimensions o f probable social types, relevant for structuring society in the postcommunist transition period; 2. the degree o f structuring and significance of socio-territorial types associated with these dimensions are different, function of urban or rural location, level of regional social problems and local cultural profile. We are going ot try checking these hypotheses, starting from a data set produced by a national representative survey in Romania, 1991. The data were collected using a random sample with stratification in the first stage. The hypothesis o f socio-territorial types of transition was initially formulated as an instrument for interpreting a path analysis of the migration intentions in Romania (Sandu, De Jong, 1994 : 20-21). Starting from the same data we use for this study, there was formulated the hypothesis of the existence o f four socio territorial types: innovation or transition migrants, with a strong pro reform orientation, traditional stable migrants, residentiaily stable innovators with pro reform orientation and stable conservatives. In the present study we are trying to pass from a simple interpretative hypothesis to its substantiation and specification. Another difference from the typology proposed in 1994 is the interest o f the present study for the attitude towards migration, different from the intention o f migration. It is probable that the attitude towards reform is associated to a greater degree with the attitude towards migration than with the intention of migration. For validating the typology, we used the discriminant analysis and log-linear models. Discriminant analysis allows for generating some dimensions or functions which differentiate the predetermined groups, starting from a set o f predictors. The discriminant functions are linear combinations of the discriminant variables. The validity o f a classification is sustained both by a high percentage o f correct predictions and by the interpretability o f the dimensions.

THE THEORETICAL MODEL

The socio-territorial types relevant for the post communist transition represent specific com binations o f attitudes towards reform and m igration. These combinations are finally determined function o f the socio demographic status of the person and o f the cultural and developing characteristics of the region in which the person lives (see fig. 1). The social development is considered from the perspective o f social problems. The greater the infant mortality, unemployment, long distance out-migration and housing density, the greater the seriousness of the

Reform and migration attitudes

49

Fig. 1. - Theoretical model o f generating territorial social types

local social problems. The effects of location in a certain region are mainly o f a cultural nature (fig. 1) as far as one controls for local social problems. The regional profile and the socio-demographic status influence the pro reform attitudes and the attitudes towards migration through a set of subjective variables. These can be grouped in three blocks: personal satisfaction and perception of community problems, value orientation and cultural preferences3. The personal satisfaction is understood as satisfaction related to family, dwelling space, profession, neighbours, food supply, long use assets they own, the locality they live in and satisfaction with life in general. The perception of the community problems implies evaluations on the seriousness o f local problems under the aspect of jobs, housing, public transportation, food, supply, pollution, medical services, school infrastructure and crime. Among the multiple values which can influence the attitudes towards migration and reform, the ones towards family and work were considered as being of maximum relevance. By considering the value o f family greater than the value of profession and friends is expected to stimulate an orientation against migration and reform, by its load o f tradition. By considering work more valuable as a factor of social success, comparative to luck or chance is probable to favour the active attitude of entrepreneurial type, the pro reform orientation. Referring to the information resources the individual disposes of, we consider as relevant the mass-media exposure, the use of books, theatre, sports ("elite culture exposure"), and the number o f non-answers given to opinion questions in the questionnaire used for the survey. The greater the number of non-answers, the smaller the stock of information the interviewed person disposes of. It is expected that old persons, women, villagers,
3We did not include in the set of intermediate variables measures of institutional and inter personal trust. The reason is that proreform orientation is very closely related to institutional trust. And this fact could have generated collinearity effects for discriminant analysis.

50

Dumitru Sandu

persons with a low level of instruction and persons from areas with high level of social problems give a greater number of non-answers. O f course, in determining non-answers there also interfere other factors linked to the interviewer. These were considered, though to have a normal distribution4.

DATA AND METHOD

For measuring different latent variables there were built indexes o f personal dominant opinion (IPDO). For each group o f items referring to the same attitude we distinguish among positive answers (P), negative answers of rejection (N) and neutral answers, the non-answers included (0). The number of items for the index is marked k. IPDO = N) * (K - O) _ 1()0

K2 IPDO has the minimal value - 100 (maximum negative attitude) and the maximum 100 (extreme positive attitude). IPDO represents an adaptation for the individual level of measuring the majority opinion index, used at aggregated level (Hofstatter index). Measuring the attitude towards migration was realised starting from the base o f a projective question: "Where do you think it would be better for a young person who now starts his/her life to live?" (interviewer read the variants): 1. in this locality 2. in another rural-locality 3. in another urban-locality 4. in another country The values 2, 3 and 4 were considered as relevant for a positive attitude towards migration and were recoded with the score 1. Those who opted for stability or did not answer were located in the same group of stable persons, marked with 0. In this recoded form, the variable appears in analysis as MIGRATION. The projective type formulation of the question has the advantage of making the subject formulate an opinion in the hypothesis of no personal constrains given by age, education, work-place, etc. The statistical correlation with the migration intention ("Are you thinking about moving out o f this locality? 1. no; 2. yes, but I'm undecided; 3. yes") is significant for the validity o f this measurement o f the attitude towards migration and is equal with 0.27 and significant for p < 0.0015. The second central variable for the typology construction which we propose is market and democracy orientation (REFORM). The index used for its measuring,
4 Non-answer are dependent o f status variables. Using the data set for this paper the beta coefficients are: NONANSWERS = 0.22*AGE - O.I2*EDUCATION - 20*MALE + 0.09*PROBLEMS. All the coefficients are significant for p < 0.05. Using a different data set for Romania, based on a national representative sample, directed by SOCIOBIT in 1994 for The Research Office o f USIA, resulted a significant correlation between migration attitude and intention r = 0.25, p < 0.001. The questions used for the measurement of the migration attitude and intentions have been identical in the two surveys.

Reform and migration attitudes

51

fait of historical i egion

fait of the Central-West vs. South-East fOld Kmgdom'lpatts of fee country Fig. 2. - Historical regions o f Romania

based on the formula IPDO is built o f the items: "it is better to have a small but safe salary than a large but unsafe income", 1it is a good thing that there are more political parties", "the privatisation is a good thing and rejecting the opinion "it was better before the December 1989 revolution " 6. We now present the list of indexes used in the statistical analysis and the wav of building them. J PROBLEMS-aggregated measure, at department level, built as factor score o f the items: rate o f infant mortality, rate o f unemployment, rate o f temporary out* n ^ er departments and the living floor area per person (values for 1992 for all indicators). SUBJECTIVE-index o f perception o f the degree of the seriousness o f local social problems. For building, there were used the answers to eight questions o f the typeHow serious the problems referring to... are in your locality?" The evaluation was requested on work-places, housing, public transportation, food supply, pollution medical services, nurseries-kindergartens-schools and crimes (IPDO index). FAMILY-orientation towards family life more than towards profession and friends There were used for this index the answers to the questions; "How do you best like to spend your leisure time, with your family or with your friends?" and "What is more important in your life, your family or your work?" (IPDO index). The list o f scales made up of a single item:
Using the same items and a Likert aggregation procedure for the scale, one could get an alpha ot 0.55. And, if included in a factor analysis the four items group in the same factor with the loadings 0 80 for privatisation, 0.71 for multi-party orientation, -0.67 for the opinion it was better before 1989 and -0.36 for the opinion it is better having a low and sure salary than a high but insure income. 6

52

Dumitru Sandu

CENTWEST-the person living in Transylvania, Banat or Criana-Maramure (code 1) versus persons living in other historical regions (provinces); AGE-the age of the person; EDUCATION- the level of school education: 1. primary 2. elementary 3. secondary 4. post-secondary 5. university. INCOME - self evaluation of income: "How do you appreciate your situation under the aspect of income? 1. very bad 2. bad 3. normal 4. good 5. very good". RELATIONS-the value of luck and relations compared with work: "Do you think that luck and relations are more important in life than work?" (scale of 4 points). NON-ANSWER - the number of non-answers given by the person to questions of satisfaction, trust and evaluation from the questionnaire.

DESCRIPTION

At the research moment, in September 1991, the population was clearly divided. The optimists and pessimists, the supporters and the critics of the politicaleconomic reform had a relative equal weight in population (table 1). Surprisingly great (20 %) seems the weight o f the mobile innovators, o f the ones who positively appreciated the course and the importance o f reform, but positively valued the migration. This is the population category which supports the reform but, implicitly, it also supports the point of view according to which the life chances are very low at the local level. According to them, the migration out of the locality of the young people is a legitimate life strategy. The opposite type is the stable conservative. For him, neither the societal change nor the migration o f the young people are desirable. The types o f the stable innovator and the mobile conservative are intermediary. The stable innovator could be the social type o f the local change actor, the one who supports the views reform is necessary and positive and life could be successfully lived at the local level. For the mobile conservative, the reform does not represent an attraction but migration is a solution for the ones who can achieve it, for the young people.
Table 1 Socio territorial types o f transition and their weight in the sample MIGRATION REFORM ATTITUDE ATTITUDE positive negative positive mobile innovator 20 mobile conservative 17 negative stabile innovator 30 stable conservative 33 50 50

37 63 10

The innovators, whether stable or mobile, are to a greater extent present in the urban areas and zones with reduced social problems (table 2). The conservatives sustaining migration are to be found especially in the rural areas and zones with serious social problems. The differences between The Old Kingdom area (historical

Reform and migration attitudes

53

regions of Moldova, Muntenia, Dobrogea and Oltenia) and the provinces beyond The Carpathians don't seem to be considerable at the level o f this frequency analysis. The greatest difference under this aspect seems to be associated with the conservative supporters of migration, located to a greater extent in The Old Kingdom than in Transylvania. Function of age, the socio territorial types are strongly differentiated. Young people under 30 years old are well represented by the category of the mobile innovators. The mobile conservatives are to be found especially among very old persons. The social types of mobile and stable innovators are more frequent among youth, persons with a high level of instruction, men, inhabitants o f towns and areas with a low level of social problems.
Table 2 Social types by regional location and socio-demographic status SOCIAL TYPES stable Residential community 36 rural urban low level medium level 31 29 36 Local problems (PROBLEMS) 11 18 26 20 14 11 11 11 20 23 22 30 29 20 15 9 15 20 17 34 31 22 29 32 17 32 35 29 28 28 16 22 26 31 37 33 26 30 26 16 17 21 17 33 24 20 19 19 15 14 10 15 19 33 22 17 20 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Conservative mobile 25 10 Innovator stable 23 36 mobile 16 23 100 Total j 1 ! : i

loo

35 high level Macroarea (CENTWEST) 'Old kingdom' Transylvania AGE - 20 years 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 70+ EDUCATION elementary gymnasium high school university GENDER male female TOTAL 30 36 33 38 39 35 21 31 38 39 32 33 32 31 35 40

54

Dumitru Sandu THE PREDICTION OF THE SOCIO-TERRITORIAL TYPES

We can consider that the four types have a more consistent socio-cultural significance if they can be derived, generated on the base of some prediction relations. The more efficient the prediction relations work, the greater the chance of obtaining, by the theoretical and statistical construction, real social types and not simple statistical artefacts. The discriminant analysis allows achieving such a validation of the proposed typology. Starting from the theoretical model introduced in fig. 1, we determined the main discriminant functions (= linear combinations of manifest variables with role o f latent, directly unmeasurable predictor) which permit predicting the membership of each person of the sample to one of the four social types (Tabaclmick and Fideli. 989). A first conclusion o f the discriminant analysis is that the predictability and the socio-territorial structuring are considerably greater for villages than for cities. By operating with the same set of 10 discriminant variables we obtained a correct prediction o f the membership to a certain type for 50% of the cases in the rural subsample and for 46% in the urban subsample. The same conclusion is supported by the comparative values o f the proportional reduction in error or tau coefficients (Klecka 1980:51): the classification based on discriminating variables made 32% fewer errors than expected by random assignm ent for rural subsam ple and 23% for the urban subsam ple. The discriminant dimensions o f the four types are more meaningful in the case of the rural subsample than in the case o f the urban one. The shortage o f materialinformation resources, the extra-family orientation and the status traditionalism are the dimensions which significantly differentiate the four social types of transition in the rural area (table 3). The resources shortage which operates in this case is multiple, signifying location in areas with high social problems, reduced level o f self evaluated incomes and information resources. These last ones are measured through the radio, TV and press exposure and through the number o f non-answers given by the person to the opinion questions in the questionnaire. The second significant dimension for differentiating rural social types is extra-family orientation. This means preferring friends and job to family, preferring relations and luck to work as factors of social success. To the same dimension, it associates a perception o f local social problems as serious. Finally, we interpreted the third dimension as "status " traditionalism: the old persons, with a low level o f instruction and located in villages in the Old Kingdom are the probable bearers o f such a traditionalism, to a greater extent than the young villagers, with a high level of instruction, in areas of Transylvania.

Reform and migration attitudes Table 3 Correlations between discriminant variables and functions. Rural subsample (n = 616)

55

Discriminant variable

SHORTAGE OF MATERIAL and INFORMATION RESOURCES 0.57 0.42 -0.36 -0.32 0.11 0.46 0.09 0.23 -0.24 -0.03 0.47

Discriminant functions o f social types j STATUS | EXTRAFAMILY TRADITIONALISM | ORIENTATION

PROBLEMS NONANSWERS INCOME TVRJ FAMILY SUBJECTIVE RELATIONS AGE EDUCATION CENTWEST Canonical correlation Eigenvalue

0.04 -0.12 0.01 -0.09 -0.65 0.56 0.48 0.17 -0.01 -0.21 0.31 24.44

0.21 -0.08 0.29 0.05 0.48 -0.01 -0.09 0.61 -0.53 -0.43
......................... ............

-1

0.20 9.97

65.59

Technical specifications on the discriminant analysis shown in the table 3: The canonic correlation between predictors and social classes or types, in this case, is signifi cantly different from 0 (x2 = 235.7, for 30 degrees o f freedom). The association between pre dictors and classes continues to be significant also after eliminating the first function (p < 0.00) and also after eliminating the second discriminant function (p < 0.00). The probabilities o f belonging to each type were considered initially as equal to the relative weight o f the types. Without using discriminant analysis, in a random way, there would have been correctly classi fied 27% o f the cases. By using this analysis with the set o f predictors mentioned in die table we obtain a correct classification for 50% o f the subjects. The F test for the unidimensional analysis o f variance indicates significant differentiation power for each variable, individually considered, function o f the four socio-territorial types considered as predictors.

The four rural social types are characterised in the terms of these statistically and interpretatively-built dimensions. The ideal type o f the mobile innovator is characterised by the fa ct that he disposes o f considerably greater resources than the conservatives, is extra-family oriented more than any other social type and has the highest score o f modernity (table 4). Although he lives in relatively developed areas, with a low level of social problems, the mobile innovator is at the same time unsatisfied o f the locality he lives in. His profile may be opposed in the first place to the one of the stable innovator. The latter also has a good situation under the aspect of resources but, unlike the mobile innovator has a high status traditionalism (he is older, with a low education level and predominantly located in the provinces of the Old Kingdom).

56

Dumitru Sandu Table 4 The mean values o f the discriminant scores for each rural social type Discriminant functions Social types SHORTAGE OF MATERIALINFORMATION RESOURCES 0.10 0.76 -0.60 -0.54 EXTRAFAMILY ORIENTATION STATUS TRADITIONALISM

10

stable conservative mobile conservative stable innovator mobile innovator

-0.37 0.26 -0.04 0.47

-0.13

0.11
0.29 -0.29
i

The highest deficit of resources shows in the case of the mobile conservative (the medium score of the first discriminant function equal to 0.76), This suggests the hypothesis of the existence of a segment of population which is pessimistic about the reform processes but favourable to migration and especially because of the resources constrains. The stable conservatives, the ones that don't support neither reform nor migration as life strategy make themselves remarked especially by family-type orientation. The prediction model applied to the rural subsample has a differentiated validity for each social type. The best prediction, function o f the 10 variables in table 3 is realised for the stable conservatives ,'68% correct predictions out o f the total of the category). The lowest performance appears in the case of the mobile innovators (22% correct predictions out of the total o f the category). For the stable innovators and the mobile conservatives the percentage o f correct predictions are o f 48% and 45%. The dimensions of prediction for the urban types are differently structured (table 5). Among the three extracted discriminant functions, just the first two are significant. The first is crystallised around the school education, including massmedia exposure and the number of non-answers given to opinion questions as indicators of information the person disposes of. The second factor is a location one: the persons from Transilvania, Banat and Criana Maramure, more than persons from provinces of the Old Kingdom seem to be characterised by family orientation, community satisfaction and relatively high level o f incomes. The third factor indicates a relatively positive relation between valuing chance and relations more in the case of persons in areas with problems than persons in areas without special problems. Its association with social types is, though an insignificant one. Education clearly differentiates the conservativesfrom the innovators in the urban areas. The highest level of the average score for this classification factor is registered for the mobile innovators (0.45) and the most reduced for the stable conservatives (-0.57). The cultural complex o f satisfaction and family orientation, named TRANSYLVANIA, has a maximum score for the stable innovators and a minimum score for the mobile conservatives (table 6).

11

Reform and migration attitudes Table 5 Correlations between discriminant variables and discriminant functions Urban subsamples (n = 668) Discriminant functions o f the urban social types VALUATING TRANSYLVANIA EDUCATION RELATIONS -0.31 -0.16 0.66 0.57 -0.55 -0.28 -0.06 -0.32 0.32 0.31 0.25 -0.03 0.40 % 79.1 0.26 -0.35 -0.07 0.64 0.45 -0.41 0.37 -0.29 -0.12 0.21 18.4

57

Discriminant variables EDUCATION TVRJ NONANSWER AGE CENTWEST FAMILY SUBJECTIVE INCOME RELATIONS PROBLEMS Canonical correlation Eigenvalue

0.00
0.35

-0.19 0.19 -0.20 -0.12 0.10 0.75 0.17 0.08 2.4

___________________

Technical specifications on the discriminant analysis shown in the table 5: The canonical correlation between predictors and social classes or types, in this case, is significantly different from 0: % 2 = 147.6, p < 0.001 for 30 degrees o f freedom. The association between predictors and classes remains significant after eliminating the first function (p < 0.02) but not after eliminating the second discriminant function (p < 0.87). The probabilities o f belonging to each type were considered equal to the relative size o f types. In a random, without using the discriminant analysis, there would have ben correctly classified 29% o f the cases. By using this analysis with the set o f predictors mentioned in the table we obtain a correct classification for 46% o f the subjects. The F test for the unidim ensional variant analysis indicates a significant differentiation o f each variable, individually considered, function of the four socio-territorial types. The only exception, when the observed F is samaller than the critic one, for p = 0.05 is PROBLEMS. Table 6 Mean values o f discriminant scores for each urban social type Social types Discriminant functions o f the urban social types VALUATING Transylvania EDUCATION RELATIONS -0.57 -0.36 0.28 0.45 0.07 -0.40 0.20 -0.22 -0.05 0.16 0.05 -0.07

stable conservative mobile conservative stable innovator mobile innovator

58

Dumitru Sandu SOCIAL TYPES AS DEPENDENT VARIABLES

12

Each social type could be considered as a dependent variable in logistic re gression models specified for the two rural and urban subsample. Tables 7 and 8 present the causal profiles for the social types generated by the logistic models. The contrast between PROBLEMS and EDUCATION is obvious. PROB LEMS is an efficient predictor for the rural types. EDUCATION is especially relevant for urban social types. CENTWEST and PROBLEMS are ecological pre dictors. They are clearly more relevant for rural than for urban social types. The causal profile of mobile innovators are very similar for urban and rural communities: the innovators are mainly located in the historical regions of the Old Kingdom, have high information resources and are extra-family oriented. Loca tion in areas of low social problems is specific for the rural type and being young is specific for the urban type. Stable innovators have similar causal profiles in villages and cities. They differ from mobile innovators especially by their low education and high mass media exposure. The causal profile of the rural stable conservatives is very rich and, to a certain degree, intriguing. The persons in that category are located in areas of the CENTralWEST part of the country, marked by high social problems. Their men tality is dominated by family and work orientation, high community satisfaction and low information resources. Unexpectedly, they are young.
Table 7 Logistic regressions with rural social types as dependent variables Social types as dependent variables conservative Predictors PROBLEMS CENTWEST EDUCATION TVRJ NONANSWERS AGE SUBJECTIVE INCOME RELATIONS FAMILY 1.05 .98 .99 .79 1.01 .99 1.01 .78 stable 1.27 1.83 mobile 1.89 2.30 .68 stable .47 .26 .78 innovative mobile .49 .45

1.00
.91 .92

The cell values are significant exp (B) o f the logistic regression models for p < 0.05. The empty cells are for the insignificant coefficients. The mobile conservatives from the villages are located in the same areas as stable conservatives. The difference is that the conservative mobiles, more than the stable conservatives, have a low level education and income and a high dissatisfaction.

13

Reform and migration attitudes

59

The same low education and high dissatisfaction is characteristic for the urban conservative mobiles. This category o f persons is low resources and highly dissat isfied of their local community.
Table 8 Logistic regressions with urban social types as dependent variables Predictors stable PROBLEMS CENTWEST EDUCATION TVRJ NONANSWERS AGE SUBJECTIVE INCOME RELATIONS FAMILY 1.01 .81 .99 .74 Social types as dependent variables conservative mobile stable 1.62 .84 1.01 .92 .98 .99 .76 .99 .94 .98 innovative mobile .64

The cell values are significant exp (B) of the logistic regression models for p < 0.05. The empty cells are for the insignificant coefficients
DISCUSSION

1. One of the major differences between urban and rural social types is iden tified in connection with the most important predictor in the first discriminant factor for each o f the subsamples. From this point o f view one can say that for the rural context, the level o f local problems (PROBLEMS) is the most important predictor o f the social type (see table 3). The same role goes to education for the urban types. Logistic regression results are consistent with this conclusion. Starting from this finding, the more general hypothesis o f the centrality ofsocial problems fo r the rural mentality and the school education centrality fo r the urban mentality, seems to be legitimate. 2. Regional location influences reform and migration mentality by its social problems component and by its cultural component The first is measured by PROB LEMS and the second by CENTWEST. Both of these components are highly rel evant for the causal profile of the rural mentality types. The urban mentality is influenced more by the culture than by the problem component o f the location. And this influence is limited to the innovators. Stable urban innovators are located mainly in the developed area of Transylvania and mobile innovators are more frequent in the less developed area of the Old Kingdom. The cultural component of the location is very specific as a causal factor for urban and rural social types. Logistic models give a clear proof for the idea that

60

Dumitru Sandu

14

social types are deeply rooted in the cultural ecology of the country. Central-West areas compared to the south-east ones (Old Kingdom) are more heterogeneous from the ethnical point of view, more urbanised and have a higher education stock of the population. As far as one controls for the problem component o f the loca tion, CENTralWEST location is relevant for a cultural complex that could be called CENTRAL-WESTcultural complex. And the statement of a cultural dichotomy central-west vs. south-east has got empirical evidence even for demographic pat terns, generally (Sandu 1986) and for mortality patterns, particularly (Mihaila 1995). Synthetically, our four social types are related to the CENTRAL-WEST cultural complex in the following way:
Box: Regional and rural-urban location o f the social types + high frequency o f the social type - low frequency o f the social type 0 insignificant relation between location and social type CENTRAL-WEST location Social type stable conservative conservative mobile stable innovator mobile innovator [ rural + + urban rural SOUTH-EAST location urban

0 0
+ -

|0 1 11 l+

I ;

3. The regional differences continue to have an important role in the specifi structuring rural and urban mentalities on essential dimensions like pro-reform orientation and defining migration as a life strategy. The cultural-historic areas we determined through the cluster analysis (basically using the data o f the 1992 census but also survey research data) as territorial units relevant for the present social life o f the country (Sandu 1995) also appear to be relevant for the way in which the social types of transition are distributed throughout the territory. Al though we do not dispose of representative subsamples of sufficient size for each area, the data presented in appendix 1 suggests in consistence of this hypothesis. 4. The four social types could also be interpreted as types o f cultural mentality (Sorokin. 1985:20-39). Discriminant analysis and logistic regression models showed how unevenly distributed are these mentalities in the social and in the ecological space. The roots of the transition cultural mentality are: the local social problems, the regional cultural profile rural-urban differentials personal and family information resources status traditionalism/modernity value orientations over family and work 5. Rural mentality as viewed from the perspective of transition social types is highly dependent on local and personal resources. Local social problems, income

15

Reform and migration attitudes

61

and media exposure are measures o f these resources. The rural conservatives are low resources. Rural innovators, supporting market and democracy changes are higher resources. Family and work orientation as opposed to extra-family and social connec tions orientation is a second key factor for the rural mentality. The persons favouring mobility are predominantly extra-family oriented. Residential stability goes to gether with high value for family and work. A third significant dimension for the rural mentality is what we called status traditionalism . It is factor about the polarity tradition modernity as derived from the status characteristics. The persons of high age, low education and located in the less developed area of the south-east part o f the country are bearers o f this status traditionalism. At the opposite pole o f this dimension, bearers of a status modermty, are educated and young persons located in the more developed Central-West part of the country. Stable innovators from the villages are status traditionalism oriented. Mobile innovators are status modernity oriented. This third dimension of rural discriminant analysis is relevant for the distrinction between stable and mo bile innovators. As for the urban mentality considered from the point of view of transition social types, the main structuring dimension is education. It is a particular type of resource. Comparing rural and urban mentalities one could say that location re sources are more important fo r rural mentality and personal resources are more relevant fo r the urban mentality. 6 The four social types created by crossing reform and migration attitudes are so deeply rooted in the social and cultural map of the country due to the fact that they arqparticular form o f larger social types. The innovative movers com pared to innovative stayers are more rationalistic, more critical, less satisfied and less optimistic (out of the total number of mobile innovators 60% are optimistic a ^ J5 6 ^ 01131 situation for ^ innovative stayers the corresponding figure is 69/). The first category is that o f modern reformers. The second one is formed by traditional reformers that can integrate the reform idea and a succesful local life strategy For the modem reformer there is a tension between the accepted reform idea and the personal life strategy in the given local context. Modem or critical reformers are more reluctant to power symbols than traditional reformers: 31% of the critical reformers would vote for Iliescu (the president in power in Romania since 1990) vs. 41 /0 out of the total constructive reformers. Rural modern reform ers more than the traditional ones are extrafamily oriented. Status traditionalism is high for traditional reformers and low for modem reformers (table 4). The so called Transylvania complex - including focus on family and work and high community satisfaction - is much higher for the urban traditional reformers than for the urban modem refomiers (table 6). The mobile conservatives are an illustration o f the more general social type that could be called conservative by constraint. They are low resources (see table 4 and 6) and very pessimistic. They do not like reform because they do not have resources to cope with it. The opposed category is that o f the conservative stayers. They are conservative by culture or mentality. The conservatives by constraint are less optimistic (35%) than the conservative by culture (46%). In terms of political preferences, 43% of the conservative by constraint would vote for Iliescu vs 47% out of the total conservative by mentality. Rural conservatives by culture are more family oriented than the rural conservatives by constraint (table 4).

62

Dumitru Sandu

16

7. The analysis we undertook is a basis for asserting that the attitudes towards migration and reform are fundamental fo r the way in which the adult population o f the country defines its social status and the way o f structuring present mentalities. Finally, these mental patterns are normal, considering the fact that the phenomena they refer to are dependent: migration is a personal and family strategy o f life, a strategy which is elaborated closely linked to major societal changes, as political and economical reform the country is going through right now. 8. We dontt know which of the relationships and hypotheses discussed in this material have a validity beyond the moment of picking sample data. Only through the replication of the survey, an answer could be given to this problem. Anyhow, the analysis has revealed a set of relationships which we believe to be of maximum relevance for the way in which the attitudes toward migration and re form in Romania of the 1990s are linked.
Appendix 1 Migration attitude, the index o f local social problems and the index of education stock for cultural-historical areas Historical regions and cultural historical areas Moldova Botoani, Vaslui, Bacu, Neam,Suceava Vrancea Galai, Iai Muntenia Clrai, Ialomia, Teleorman Buzu, Brila, Giurgiu Arge, Dmbovia Prahova Dobrogea Oltenia Mehedini, Olt, Vlcea, Dolj, Gorj Transylvania Sibiu, Braov Alba, Hunedoara Cluj, Mure Covasna, Harghita Bistria Nsud, Salaj Banat Cri ana- Maramure Bihor, Satu Mare Maramure Arad Bucureti Index o f local social problems PROBLEMS 2.45 0.90 0.88 0.74 0.02 -0.31 0.58 0.08 -0.58 -1.21 -0.22 -0.91 -0.71 0.44 -0.94 -0.41 -1.96 -1.63 Index of education stock EDSTOCK -1.55 -0.35 -0.23 -1.70 -1.16 0.76 -0.25 0.10 1.03 1.38 0.63 0.60 -0.20 0.17 1.25 0.37 0.61 2.2 MIGRATION

67 55 32 31 38 25 43 20 52 24 42 41 22 33 41 20 28 47

name o f the historical region. Each cultural-historical area is a cluster of departments within the historical region.

17

Reform and migration attitudes

63

The PROBLEMS and MIGRATION indexes are defined in the paragraphs in the section Data and Methods EDSTOCK is built as a factor score from four indica tors: university graduates percentage o f the total population 12 years old and over, rural 1992; university graduates percentage of the total population 12 years old and over, urban 1992; primary school graduates percentage o f the total population 12 years old and over, rural 1992; primary school graduates percentage of the total of population 12 years old and over, urban 1992. The cell values are mean scores computed for the departments in the reference area. The cultural-historical areas are generated through the cluster analysis on a set of 15 indicators (Sandu, 1995). They are more homogenous than historical regions. A second variant o f classification of departments, presented in the same paper proposes groupings which exceed the limits o f historical region. PROBLEMS and EDSTOCK are objective indicators built with census data from 1992. MIGRATION is an index with limited relevance at the area level, because o f the reduced number of cases existing in the sample for certain areas. The comparisons make sense especially for the same historical region. Conside ring the Moldova historical region, the most favourable attitude for migration appears to be for the cluster Botosani-Vaslui with the maximum index o f the seriousness of social problems and with the most reduced stock of education. The opposite situa tion in the same historical region is for the cluster Iai and Galai with a minimum level of attitude towards migration and with a better situation under the aspect of education and social development. In Oltenia, the better social situation for Dolj and Gorj than the one for Vlcea, Olt and Mehedini is associated with a higher level of attitudes toward migration and reform in thefirst group compared to the second. The factors that explain the differentiated level of the two attitudes from an area to another are multiple. The data o f the previous table are only meant to emphasise the fact that both objectively and subjectively the historical regions are strongly differentiated inside. Or, at least for a sociologist, these differences must be a basis of starting in regional analyses.
REFERENCES Centeno, Miguel Angel, Between Rocky Democracies and Hard Markets: Dilemmas o f the Double Transition. Annual Review of Sociology 20:125-47, 1994. Klecka, William R., Discriminant Analysis. Series: Quantitative applications in the Social Sci ences. Sage University paper 19, 1980. Newbury Park: Sage Mauss, Marcel, Essai sur le don. Forme et raison de I'echange dans les societes archaiques Anne sociologique, 1923-1924. Vol. I, 1993. Mihaila, Valentina, Regional Analysis o f Mortality in Romania. Doctoral disertation directed by Prof. Vladimir Trebici. Academy o f Economic Studies, 1995. Sandu, Dumitru, A Demographic Typology o f the Romania's counties, Viitorul Social 2, 1986. In Romanian. Sandu, Dumitru, Gordon De Jong, Migration in Market and Democracy Transition: Migration Intentions and Behavior in Romania. Penn State Population Research Institute. Working Papers Series. 94-17 Bucharest, 1994. In Romanian. Sandu, Dumitru, Cultural areas and social problems. Revista de Cercetri Sociale, 1995. In Romanian. In print. Sorokin, Pitirim, Social and Cultural Dynamics. A study o f Change in Major Systems o f Art, Truth, Ethics, Law and Social Relationships, 1985. Transaction Books. Tabachnick, B.G. and L.S. Fideli, Using Midtivariate Statistics, 2nd ed. Harper and Row. New York, 1989. Thomas, William, On Social Organization and Social Personality. Selected Papers. Ed. by Morris Janowitz. Phoenix Books. Chicago, 1966.