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Week 1 Analysis of
Operation Rah-e-Nijat
By Reza Jan and Charlie Szrom
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Background
• August 6, 2008: Pakistan begins a military operation in Bajaur Agency
• April 28, 2009: Pakistan begins operation in Swat to clear militants led by Maulana
Fazlullah, low-level violence continues up to present after initial clearing
• May 17: President Ali Asif Zardari declares, “We’re going to go into Waziristan.”
• June 28: Hafiz Gul Bahadur, Taliban commander in North Waziristan, ambushes convoy
and September 2006 truce
• July 16: Infantry and armor arrives in Miranshah , North Waziristan and Tank district
• August 5: Beitullah Mehsud killed in drone strike near Makin, South Waziristan
• August 22: Hakimullah Mehsud declared TTP Leader
• September 22: Large clashes between militants and security forces in North Waziristan
• October 5: TTP attacks UNWFP office in Islamabad
• October 9: Car bomb explodes in Peshawar’s Khyber bazaar
• October 10: General Headquarters (GHQ) of the Pakistani military attacked
• October 15: Simultaneous attacks on law enforcement facilities in Lahore
• October 16: Government meets and decides to launch operation at behest of Pakistani
military head General Ashfeq Parvez Kayani, who urges the commencement to respond to
recent terror attacks
• October 17: Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path to Deliverance) begins 2
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Pakistani Forces in Area of Operations
Ground Forces
Total: 36,000-40,000 soldiers
Regulars: 28,000-30,000 men – two divisions from XI Corps, which is based in
Peshawar and commanded by Lt. Gen. Mohammad Masood Aslam
7th Infantry Division, operating in North Waziristan and commanded by Maj.
Gen. Naweed Zaman; home base is Mardan (NWFP, NW of Islamabad)
Likely involved in the northern front of the operation, between Razmak and
Makin
9th Infantry Division, operating in South Waziristan and commanded by Maj.
Gen. Khalid Rabbani; home base is Kohat (NWFP, not far from N. Waziristan)
Likely split between the two southern fronts of the operation, on the west
side at Wana / Shanai north to Sharwangi and on the east side at Jandola
north to Spinkai Raghzai, Kotkai and Sara Rogha
Frontier Corps (FC): 8,000-10,000 men – two “corps” (3,000-5,000 each) likely drawn
from local units. Frontier Corps headquartered in Peshawar and commanded by Maj.
Gen. Tariq Khan.
Special Forces: 500 commandos from the Special Services Group (SSG)
Aviation: 31st and 32nd Army Aviation Squadron (helicopters), whose home base is in3
Mardan; portion based in Miranshah (26 miles from theater) www.irantracker.org
Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Hakimullah Mehsud
• Declared leader of the TTP on August 22; was close friend of Beitullah Mehsud, who
founded the TTP in December 2007 and was killed in an August 5 drone strike
• An infamous Taliban operational commander who masterminded a 2007 kidnapping of
300+ Pakistani soldiers, a 2008 campaign targeting convoys supplying NATO forces, and
a March 2009 attack against the Sri Lanka cricket team, among other actions
• Reported to remain in area commanding Taliban forces
Qari Hussain
• TTP suicide bomber trainer; was considered possible successor to Beitullah Mehsud
• Military has specifically targeted him in recent operation, with the military press
service singling out Kotkai as Hussain’s hometown in the battle for the town
• Reported to be in conflict zone commanding Taliban forces
Wali-ur Rehman
• Administers TTP finances; was considered possible successor to Beitullah Mehsud
TTP Regional
Commanders
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Waziristan
North Waziristan
South Waziristan
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Initial Situation
Makin
Sara Rogha
Ladha
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Initial Situation
Triangle represents center of TTP
Makin leadership and control and area
where insurgency is most virulent
Ladha
Sara Rogha
Makin, Ladha and
Sara Rogha: Main TTP
strongholds
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Initial Situation
Razmak
Wana
Jandola
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Operation Timeline Days 1-3
•October 17, Day 1: Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path to Deliverance) begins as Pakistani
forces move into the Mehsud heartland in South Waziristan that forms the Tehrik-i
Taliban Pakistan (TTP) stronghold; forces move in three directions: 1) south from
Razmak in North Waziristan across the border towards Makin (the northern front); 2)
northeast from the Shakai Valley and Wana towards Tiarza and Sharwangi (the
western front); and 3) northwest from Jandola towards Spinkai Raghzai and Kotkai (the
eastern front).
• October 18, Day 2: Forces on northern and western fronts meet strong resistance
while eastern front troops advance relatively quickly; forces on the western front
bypass TTP-held town of Khaisura; military destroys six 12.7mm anti-aircraft batteries
that had been harassing helicopters.
•October 19, Day 3: On the eastern front, Pakistani forces surround Kotkai, the alleged
hometown of Qari Hussain, by seizing peaks around the valley; on the western front,
Pakistani jets bomb ammunition caches in caves between Makin and Kaniguram; on
the northern front, Pakistani forces secure the heights south and southwest of
Razmak.
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Operation Timeline Days 4-6
• October 20, Day 4: On the eastern front, progress slows as the TTP recapture town of
Kotkai, previously held by the military; some military units bypass Kotkai to move
further up the road towards Sara Rogha; on the western front, forces consolidate
control of Sharwangi and clear Khaisura; on the northern front, the army clears
Nawazkhot and moves toward Makin.
•October 21, Day 5: Forces secure more villages around Kotkai - where homes of
Hakimullah and Qari Hussain are destroyed - while resistance continues there; heavy
clashes near Makin and Razmak; helicopters and artillery attack TTP forces near
Afghan border and near Makin and Ladha; IDPs fleeing the fighting are trapped
between the TTP and Pakistani forces.
•October 22, Day 6: Pakistani military takes rocket fire at Razmak as it secures
positions on the edge of Makin; military extends its perimeter past Sharwangi, sets up
checkpoint at Torwam; Tor Ghundai hill secured, heavy clashes between military and
TTP forces forcing TTP withdrawal from hill-top positions
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Axes of advance
Razmak
Razmak
offensive
Makin
Sara Rogha
Ladha
Shakai
Wana/Shakai
offensive
Jandola
offensive Jandola
Wana
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Western Front: Wana/Shakai – Sharwangi
Days 1-3
October 17, Day 1:
•From the southwest through Tiarza and Shakai, fighting reported in Tiarza, Sharwangi
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Western Front: Wana/Shakai – Sharwangi
October 20, Day 4:
Days 4-6
•On the Shakai-Ladha Axis the security forces are still consolidating positions at
Sharwangi but are extending their control. They are also clearing the village of
Khasura which was bypassed on day 2 of the operation
Boya Narai
Kaniguram
Sharwangi
Shakai
Wuzi Sar
Khaisura
Tiarza
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Advance towards Ladha
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Advance towards Ladha
Day 1: October 17
Wuzi Sar
Gurgura Sar
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Advance towards Ladha
Day 2: October 18
Boya Narai
Wuzi Sar
2
1
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Advance towards Ladha
Day 3: October 19
Boya Narai
Sharwangi
Wuzi Sar
Gurgura Sar
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Advance towards Ladha
Day 4: October 20
Sharwangi
Wuzi Sar
Gurgura Sar
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Advance towards Ladha
Day 5: October 21
Boya Narai
Sharwangi
Wuzi Sar
Gurgura Sar
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Advance towards Ladha
Day 6: October 22
Forces begin extending perimeter north of
Sharwangi having secured Gurgura Sar. Army
repulses an ambush on its position at Boya Narai.
Boya Narai
Wuzi Sar
Gurgura Sar
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Northern Front: Razmak-Makin
Days 1-3
October 17, Day 1:
•Forces moving from the north through Razmak, fighting currently reported in Makin,
Razmak, three soldiers killed in North Waziristan near Razmak
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Northern Front: Razmak-Makin
Days 4-6
October 20, Day 4:
•The ISPR did not offer an update on forces coming in from the north in Razmak,
which were last reported as moving towards Makin
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Advance to Makin
Makin
Nawazkot
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Advance to Makin
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Advance to Makin
Day 1: October 17
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Advance to Makin
Day 2: October 18
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Advance to Makin
Day 3: October 19
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Advance to Makin
Day 4: October 20
No news update.
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Advance to Makin
Day 5: October 21
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Advance to Makin
Day 6: October 22
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Eastern Front: Jandola – Kotkai
Days 1-3
October 17, Day 1:
•Troops move towards Kotkai, Spinkai Raghzai, Sarwekai ; fighting reported in Spinkai
Raghzai and Mandana areas
•Troops reportedly capture Spinkai Raghzai and Ghazi areas and set up checkpoint on
route to Kotkai
•Aerial bombardment reported in Kotkai; one soldier dead in near Jandola in IED
attack
Kotkai
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Advance to Sara Rogha
Jandola
Spinkai Raghzai
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Advance to Sara Rogha
Day 1: October 17
Spinkai Raghzai
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Advance to Sara Rogha
Day 2: October 18
Spinkai Raghzai
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Battle for Kotkai
Day 3: October 19
Spin Ghar
Malik Shahi
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Battle for Kotkai
Day 3: October 19
Spinkai Raghzai
Tarakai
Mandana During the night of Day 3, forces Kund
enter and take Kotkai.
Spin Ghar
Malik Shahi
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Battle for Kotkai
Day 4: October 20
Spin Ghar
Malik Shahi
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Battle for Kotkai
Day 5: October 21
Security forces extend perimeter
around Spinkai Raghzai.
Spinkai Raghzai
Tarakai Military takes Malik Shahi and reports fierce
Mandana
clashes with militants in surrounding hills as Kund
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Battle for Kotkai
Day 6: October 22
Spinkai Raghzai
Tarakai
Mandana
Kund
Spin Ghar
Malik Shahi
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Current Extent of Advance
Razmak
Makin
Ladha
Sara Rogha
Shakai
Wana
Jandola
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Day 1 - 2 Day 3
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Day 4 Day 5
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Day 6 Day 7
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Internally Displaced Persons
Estimated total Mehsud population:
IDPs:
Low: 285,700
Main hubs for IDPs: Tank,
High: 333,330
Dera Ismail Khan, Miranshah,
Bannu
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Force: Population Ratio
Estimated population remaining:
85,700 to 133,330
Ratios:
Total Pakistani forces: 36,000-40,000 During Op: between 1:2 and 1:4
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Air Operations, Surveillance, and
Intelligence
• TTP 12.7mm anti-aircraft fire harassed Pakistani helicopters initially forcing the
Pakistani military to rely on air support solely from high-altitude jets. Since October
19, however, Pakistani forces have eliminated or captured numerous 12.7mm
batteries, allowing them to use helicopters more freely.
•American forces have lent surveillance drones to provide Pakistani forces with real-
time aerial surveillance of the conflict zone, as well as signal intercepts of
communications from militants in South Waziristan.
•Pakistani military has also jammed cell phone and other communication services in
much of South Waziristan and other neighboring areas.
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Information Operations
•TTP successes
• IO Actions
• Stating that the TTP is suffering few losses
• Disputing government claims of military casualties as far too low
• Says TTP has pushed back government from towns
• Factors that contribute to success narrative / win sympathy
• Retaking Kotkai, and slowing of Pakistani forces across theater
• International Islamic University bombing; closing of schools and protest following
bombing show government weakness and Taliban operational capacity despite
Operation Rah-e-Nijat
• IDP problems continue as registration centers face overload and government
response appears initially unsympathetic
• UN WFP offices in Peshawar closed on Oct 21 after Oct 9 bombing
• Reports of Qari Hussain and Hakimullah Mehsud personally commanding fight
•Government successes
•IO Actions
•Leaflets dropped with Kayani statement urging locals to turn against TTP
•NWFP governor appeals to the Mehsuds, offering aid to IDPs and stating that the
government fight was with the Taliban, not everyday Mehsuds
•Factors that contribute to success narrative
• Alleged high kills-to-losses ratio
• Initial operation phase quickly and completely surrounds TTP stronghold area
• Destruction of Hakimullah Mehsud and Qari Hussain homes 53
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Effects on War in Afghanistan
• Possibility of Afghan Taliban coming to aid the TTP with supplies, personnel, etc.
• Possibility of TTP leadership and fighters fleeing across the border into Afghanistan.
• No reportage yet of large numbers of TTP fighters moving to Afghanistan.
• Most likely move would be into southern Paktika province, given proximity and
limited NATO force presence there. Exfiltrating to Paktika would be difficult,
however, given rough terrain between conflict area in Waziristan and the border
as well as sparse, harsh terrain in southern Paktika itself.
• NATO forces have reportedly abandoned four “posts” on Afghanistan side of the
border near South Waziristan.
• The Pakistani army has set up five bases on the border, and reports that it has “taken
control” of the Ingalmall mountain range.
•Pakistani military forces have used helicopter gunships (Cobras) to attack Taliban
positions near the Afghan border (10/21).
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Recent Drone Strikes in Waziristan
•Oct 21: Near Miranshah, North Waziristan : Three reported killed possibly including
Afghan Al-Qaeda-linked militant Abu Saeed Al-Masri
•Oct 15: Dande Darpa Khel near Miranshah, North Waziristan: Four killed
•Oct 1: Mir Ali, North Waziristan: Six dead (reportedly Arabs killed)
•Sept 24: Near Mir Ali, North Waziristan: strike reportedly targeted a Haqqani hideout:
Ten killed
•Sept 14: Khushal Tori Khail near Miranshah, North Waziristan: Eight killed
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Front Assessment
•Ground Operations:
• Northern front: Pakistani military advances up to and sets conditions just north
of TTP stronghold of Makin.
• Western front: Pakistani military seizes ground quickly, facing manageable
resistance.
• Eastern front: Pakistani military faces significant resistance at Kotkai.
• Air Operations: Pakistani military quickly achieves freedom of maneuver for both
fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft.
• Intelligence and Surveillance: Pakistani military dominance due to drones and signals
intercept lent by Americans and Pakistani jamming of communications in combat area
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Key Conclusions
• Effective Pakistani military strategy
• Methodical – slow advance with a force that outnumbers the enemy. Difficult towns
(Kotkai, Makin) are encircled through control of surrounding peaks then cleared later. Jets
with precision munitions eliminate 12.7mm anti-aircraft guns after initial TTP harassment
of helicopters, allowing close helicopter support.
• The Pakistani military has learned lessons from its 2004 incursion into Waziristan and
2008 Bajaur operation: they are seizing the high ground to control valleys.
• Pakistanis employing effective route clearance packages to limit damage from IEDs.
• TTP resistance strong
• Retook Kotkai and have managed to contest dominance over eastern front.
• Have managed to slow, or at least check, Pakistani advance on other fronts.
• TTP ability to coordinate spectacular attacks outside Waziristan remains intact (Islamabad
Int’l University, assassination of army officer in Islamabad 10/22, 10/23 Attock, Mohmand,
Peshawar attacks), although recent operations may have drained suicide bomber / attacker
pool and attacks may therefore not continue at current pace and scale, given that it will
take weeks to regenerate suicide bombers after the current force is depleted.
• IDPs could be a long-term problem if the Pakistanis adopt a counterinsurgency strategy
• At least 200,000 IDPs currently.
• Many have vacation homes in the NWFP to the east of Waziristan.
• Some IDPs unable to flee conflict zone, caught between government and TTP forces
• Government has set up IDP registration centers, which have been overloaded.
• Government has also sent conflicting messages on whether it is inflicting “collective
punishment” (which is an accepted practice in the region) on the Mehsud tribe. 57
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