IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FUTURE OF INDIA

AAKASH PARIHAR BITS Pilani

Indias climate is both diverse and changing. Throughout the twenty first century India is projected to experience warming above the global mean. India will also begin to experience greater seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in winter than in summer[1]. The longevity of heat waves across India have extended in recent years, leading to warmer temperature at night and hotter days-this trend is set to continue[2]. This will lead to increased variability in summer monsoon precipitation, with drastic effects on the agriculture sector in India [3]. In this essay we will touch upon the effects of climate change on various sectors in India.

AGRICULTURE
Agriculture contributes only 21 percent of Indias GDP. Small farms in the country are dependent on timely and sufficient rainfall during monsoon for high crop yields. However, with the climate changing rainfall patterns have become erratic leaving farmers exposed too many risks including droughts, floods, disease of both crops and animals and unpredictable market irregularities [4]. Recently the country saw unexpected dry regions in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra and floods in Orissa [5]. Also it is estimated that every 1oC increase rise in temperature is likely to lead to a 5-10 percent reduction in yields of some crops [6].

BIODIVERSITY
The changes in the climatic conditions are already felt by the biodiversity and wildlife habitats across the world. Many plant and animal species are eventually becoming extinct as a result of the climatic changes. Some of the plant and animal species are unable to adapt to the changing climate. While some of the mammals have already reached the suitable places, appropriate for their survival. Green houses gases are the main reason for the climatic change which in turn posses the threat to the vast biodiversity. Furthermore the redistribution of life on the earth's surface is increasing at an alarming fast pace. The tremendous change in the climatic conditions can be best felt at mountains, where due to the excessive heat, trees have started growing on the much higher elevations. Another example that apt to explain the impact of climate change is in the great Rann of Kutch, where the population of Lesser Florican and Indian Ass is plummeting sharply. As the global warming causes the rise in the sea level, it is expected that the marshes and mudlands of the Kutch will be submerged. Climate change not only influence the animal behavior but also slash the genetic diversity of the animals.

HEALTH AND DISEASES

As the climate changes, there is going to be an increasing impact on human health. Increased frequency of heat waves will lead to increased incidences of illness and death in India. Also population migration will perpetuate levels of disease and infection due to unsuitable living conditions with limited sanitation facilities and access to clean water and food[7]. Below are some examples of health implications that can be linked with climate change. 3a.Bacterial infection: rates of diarrhea, cholera and bacterial diseases are set to rise as temperatures rise. The occurrence of salmonella and e.coli amongst other food poisoning are further known to be associated with rises in ambient air temperature[8].

VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE

Warmer and wetter climes would enable malarial mosquitoes to spread their range and survive longer, leading to increased rates of dengue fever and schistosmiasis [9]. Also projections by NIMR, Delhi indicated that malaria could spread to districts in three states it is currently absent from-Uttrakhand, Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir-during next 20 years.

RESPIRATORY DISEASES
The quality of air is likely to decrease as surface ozone concentrations begin to rise with increasing temperatures. This will leads to an increasing incidence of asthma and other respiratory diseases [10].

UNDER NUTRITION
Rising temperatures and variable rainfall will ultimately lead to an increase in crop failures. Poorest regions will be most affected and rates of under nutrition will begin to rise [11].

INCREASED FREQUENCY OF EXTREME EVENTS

Recent studies have shown that cyclones originating from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea have been noted to decrease since 1970 but the intensity has increased [12]. It has been observed that climate change has led to increase in extreme rains in north-west during summer monsoon recent decades. There has also been lower number of rainy days along east coast [13]. There has already been an increase in droughts and floods in the country. There were consecutive droughts in 1999 and 2000 in north-western India which led to sharp decline in water tables[14].

WATER RESOURCES
Over exploitation of ground water in India has resulted in a drop in its level, leading to ingress of sea water in coastal areas making the sub-surface water saline[15]. Also the gross per capita availability in India will decline from about 1820 m3/year in 2001, to as low as about 1140m3/year in 2050[16]. India will reach a state of water stress before 2005, when the availability falls below 1000m3 per capita[17].

POPULATION MIGRATION
As the temperature rises the rate of melting of glaciers and the ice cap will increase which will lead to the rise in sea level. This in turn will lead to flooding of coastal regions and hence migration of population from coastal regions. Further adding to this is the ever-increasing population which has already reached 1.2 billion. It has been estimated that by 2050, the population would have increased by another 500 million[18]. This will undoubtedly lead to excessive strain on agriculture thus leading to greater migration from rural to urban areas, further worsening the condition of resources in these centers[19]. The term 'environment refugee' has now been coined for those people who are displaced by environmental events. REFERENCES 1 Christensen et. Al. 2007 2 Cruz et. Al. 2007 3 Bhadwal 2003 4 Venkateshwarlu 2009 5 World bank report on climate change impacts in drought and flood affected areas, 2009 6 Pachauri 2009 7 Mc Michael et. Al. 2004

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Fluery et. Al. 2006 Battacharya et. Al. 2006 Liggins 2008 Cohen et. Al. 2008 Lal 2001 Kriplani et. Al 1996; Singh and Sontakke 2002; Lal 2003 Webster et al 1998; India meteorological department, 2006 Han et. Al. 1999 16. Gupta and Deshpande 2004 17. CWC 2001 18. UN 2008 19. Liggins 2008