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1. Khuynh h n! "# $%n! T&'n"()*&" )&+n ,-) ,./h )0/h h%1 (Transistors Per Integrated Circuit Trends)

2. Khuynh h n! h. !(3 )h4nh "5n 1h6, (Product Cost Trends)

The integrated circuit industry has an incredible record of cost reductions. Since the 1970 the integrated circuit industry has been reducing costs by 35% per year and this trend has continued through 003! This trend is illustrated in figure 1.

7(!u&8 1. IC C*") T&8n9". "n figure 1# fi$e trends are illustrated The first trend is the cost per one %illion bits of &'() %e%ory * green circles# the second is cost per one %illion instructions per second of "ntel processor po+er * blue s,uares# the third is the cost per one %illion transistors for the industry as a +hole * orange triangles# the fourth is the cost of one %illion instructions per second of Te-as "nstru%ents &S. po+er * purple dia%onds# and finally the cost of one %illion /ilin- 0.1( gates * redish bro+n circles.

:. C3/ ;huynh h n! <= $> ?OS @*!(/ (MOS Logic Process Trends)

A. C3/ ;huynh h n! V( <= $> (Microprocessor trends)

Cell Construction Layers Line Transis Die Process Mask Proc/ u Year Product width tors size Clock "olta#e Cache type layers s Poly Metal (mm) (m) (M) (M!z) (") ($ its) ( its) 1971 1972 1974 1976 1978 1979 1982 4004 8008 8080 8085 8086 8088 80286 PMOS PMOS NMOS NMOS NMOS NMOS CMOS 10 10 6.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.0023 0.0035 0.006 0.0065 0.029 0.029 0.134 0.275 1.2 1.2 3.1 1.6 5.5 7.5 19 28 20 16 19 21 --------------10 12 --18 4 8 8 8 16 16/8 16 32 32 32 32/64 32 32/64 32/64 32/64 32/64 0.108 0.2 2 0.37 5-10 5-8 6-12 16-33 25-50 50-66 60-66 75-100 150200 233300 300333 500733 12 12 12 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3.3 2.8 --1.65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 128 256 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3Al 3Al 4Al 4Al 5Al 6Al 310 209 140 13.5 15.2 20.0 20.0 28.6 28.6 68.7 104 163 81 264

1985 80386DX CMOS 1989 80486DX CMOS 1992 80486DX CMOS 2 80486DX CMOS 4

1993 Pentium BiCMOS 0.8 1994 1995 0.5

Pentium BiCMOS 0.35 P! 0.35 0.25 0.18

1997 Pentium "" CMOS 1998 Cele !n 1999 Pentium """ CMOS CMOS

2000 Pentium 4 CMOS 2001 Pentium 4 CMOS 2001 "t$nium CMOS

0.18 0.13 0.18 0.13 0.13 0.09

42 55 25 55 220 %55

21 23 21 23 23 25

32/64 32/64 64/64 32/64 64/64

1#4002#000 2#0002#200 733800 2#0003#000 9001#000

1.7 1.5 1.5 1.2

256 512 96 512 256/1#50 0 %512

1 1 1 1 1 1

6Al 6Cu 6Al 6Cu 6Al 7Cu

224 146 131 421 -

2002 Pentium 4 CMOS 2002 "t$nium "" CMOS 2003 Pentium 4 CMOS

32/64 %3#000

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C. C3/ ;huynh h n! $uD) "# ,E )&*n! /Fn! n!h(G1 ,./h )0/h h%1 (Exponential Trends in the Integrated Circuit Industry)
C.1 ?**&8H" @'I "n 1925# 1ordon )oore# director of research and de$elop%ent at 0airchild Se%iconductor +rote a paper for 3lectronics entitled 45ra%%ing %ore co%ponents onto integrated circuits6. "n the paper )oore obser$ed that 4The co%ple-ity for %ini%u% co%ponent cost has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of t+o per year6. This obser$ation beca%e 7no+n as )oore8s la+. )oore8s la+ +as later a%ended to# the nu%ber of co%ponents per "5 doubles e$ery 19 * : %onths.

C.2 R8J8nu8 &ri$en by )oore;s la+ and the continually increasing po+er of the integrated circuit# the +orld+ide re$enue for se%iconductors has gro+n at o$er 1:% per year.

C.: @(n8I(9)h" <ne of the 7ey dri$ers behind the industries ability to double transistor counts e$ery 19 to : %onths# is the continuous reduction in line+idths. Shrin7ing line+idths not only enables %ore co%ponents to fit onto an "5 =typically - per line+idth generation> but also lo+er costs =typically 30% per line+idth generation>.

C.A K(8 "(L8 Shrin7ing line+idths ha$e slo+ed the rate of gro+th in die si?e to 1.1:- per year $ersus 1.39 to 1.59- per year for transistor counts# and since the %id nineties accelerating line+idth shrin7s ha$e halted and e$en re$ersed the gro+th in die si?es.

C.B Th8 1&(/8 *M "h&(n;(n! $(n8I(9)h" 1 P&*/8"" C*,1$8<()y @ Shrin7ing line+idths isn;t free. Aine+idth shrin7s re,uire process %odifications to deal +ith a $ariety of issues that co%e up fro% shrin7ing the de$ices * leading to increasing co%ple-ity in the processes being used.

C.C Th8 1&(/8 *M "h&(n;(n! $(n8I(9)h" 2 NOu(1,8n) C*") @ .rinting e$er s%aller line+idths re,uires e,uip%ent of e$er increasing precision dri$ing the cost of the e,uip%ent up. 3-posure syste% costs ha$e risen for% ten of thousands of dollars# to o$er ten %illion dollars +ith no end in sight.

C.P. Th8 1&(/8 *M "h&(n;(n! $(n8I(9)h" : 7'/)*&y C*") @ The cost of a se%iconductor +afer fab has risen fro% less than ten %illion dollars in 1970 to o$er t+o billions dollars today. Bo+e$er# +hen producti$ity i%pro$e%ents such as shrin7ing line+idths# larger capacity factories and larger +afer si?es are accounted for# the cost per unit*out has fallen!

C.Q K8M8/) 98n"()(8" "n$est%ents in ne+ e,uip%ent and technology ha$e dri$en do+n defect densities and Clti%ately i%pro$ed yields.

C.R P&*9u/) 1&(/(n! The e-ponential increase in transistors per die +hile shrin7ing line+idths and die si?es and i%pro$ing yields and factory producti$ity ha$e all enabled product pricing to decline 35% per year +hile %aintaining gross %argins!

P. K(8 S(L8 T&8n9"

9. K8M8/) K8n"()y T&8n9"

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