Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Mihaela Mircea
UTVALAMB-AIR, National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129, Bologna, Italy
Outlines
Conclusions
What is the history of air pollution in London? It is often assumed that air pollution in London is a recent phenomenon, however, legislation attempting to control air pollution was enacted as early as 1306. Coal smoke and its associated problems remained a matter of concern in London up until the late 20th century with the famous smogs of the 1950s and 60s.
http://www.londonair.org.uk/LondonAir/guide/LondonHistory.aspx
1273 Use of coal prohibited in London as being "prejudicial to health". 1306 - Royal Proclamation: Prohibiting artificers (craftsmen) from using sea-coal (a soft coal) in their furnaces.
http://www.air-quality.org.uk
1272 - King Edward I of England bans use of sea coal 1377 1399 - Richard II restricts use of coal 1413 1422 - Henry V regulates/restricts use of coal
Acid deposition occurs all the time, even on sunny days. Sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides combine with water in the atmosphere to create acid rain. Acid rain acidifies the soils and waters where it falls, killing off plants. Many industrial processes produce large quantities of pollutants including sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide.
EUTROFIZZAZIONE
Eutrophication is when the environment becomes enriched with nutrients. This can be a problem in marine habitats such as lakes as it can cause algal blooms. The algae may use up all the oxygen in the water, leaving none for other marine life.
This results in the death of many aquatic organisms such as fish, which need the oxygen in the water to live. The bloom of algae may also block sunlight from photosynthetic marine plants under the water surface. Some algae even produce toxins that are harmful to higher forms of life.
The spatial coverage of monitoring is usually limited. Modelling can potentially provide complete spatial coverage of air quality. Modelling can be applied prognostically. I.e. it can be used to predict the air quality as a result of changes in emissions or meteorological conditions. Modelling provides an improved understanding of the sources, causes and processes that determine air quality. Modelling is an important tool on which to base action plans, both short and long term.
(Guidance on the use of models for the European Air Quality Directive , ETC/ACC report)
What is a model?
It is a simple representation of the world.
This is achieved via application of the processes like:
Generalization: The process of treating different entities as if they were the same for the sake of simplifying the description.
Distortion: The process of changing the representation for the sake of simplifying the description, e.g., treat two serial reactions as if they were one. Deletion:
The process where by entities or processes are omitted from the description to simplify the description. Nescience:
The unintended process whereby entities or processes are omitted from the system because of lack of knowledge. ETC
Gaussian plume model: This model was applied for the main purpose of calculating the maximum ground level impact of plumes and the distance of maximum impact from the source.
Lagrangian model: an air parcel (or puff) is followed along a trajectory, and it is assumed to keep its identity during its path.
Eulerian model: the area under investigation is divided into grid cells, both in vertical and horizontal directions.
Model input
Model components Transport and dispersion Removal Chemical and physical transformations
Gaussian models
- they perform optimally when the stability is in the range of stable to unstable. Highly stable or
approximation
STILT ( Lin et al., 2003) ATTILA (Reithmeier and Sausen, 2002) STOCHEM (Collins et al., 1997)
NO2 guidance document http://fairmode.ew.eea.europa.eu/guidance-use-models-wg1
Eulerian model
The Eulerian grid model uses a fixed coordinate system with respect to the ground while Lagrangian trajectory model employs a moving frame of reference . The three-dimensional Eulerian grid modeling has the ability to better and more fully characterize physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere. These models often are referred to by other names, including chemical transport models (CTM), air quality models, photochemical air quality models, air pollution models, emissionbased models, source-based models, sourceoriented models, source models, firstprinciples models, and comprehensive models.
http://www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/Model-Inventory.5554.0.html
of
an
Eulerian
model
Radiation
Aerosols
FARM
AERO3 (Binkowski and Roselle, 2003) ISORROPIA (Nenes et al., 1998) SORGAM (Schell et al., 2001)
n u cl e a ti o n
condensation/evaporation
coagulation
Modal
Ni, Dpgi,
Aerosol models
Aerosol dynamics Sea salt models MADE -Ackerman, Atm Env 1998, ECHAM4 Dust models MADRID -Zhang, JGR 2004, CMAQ M7 -Vignati, JGR 2004, ECHAM5, Stier, ACP 2005 GLOMAP -Spracklen, ACP 2005 MAM -Sartelet, Sportise, AerSciTechn 2006 HYDN -Feng, JGR 2007 ORISAM -Guillaume, Tellus B 2007 Secondary organic aerosol models MOSAIC -Zaveri, JGR 2008 SORGAM (Schell et al., 2001) MATRIX -Bauer, ACP 2008 AERO3 Binkowski et al. (, 1995, 2003) SOAP (Strader et al., 1998) VBS based models in North America (Robinson et al., 2007; Lane et al., 2008; Shrivastava et al., 2008; Murphy Thermodynamic equilibrium models and Pandis, 2009), ISORROPIA - Nenes et al. (1998) and very recently in Europe (Simpson et AIM http://www.aim.env.uea.ac.uk al., 2009; Fountoukis et al., 2011) MARS Saxena et al., (1986) UHAERO (Amundson et al., 2006)
Ra - the aerodynamic resistance Rb - the quasi-laminar sublayer resistance above the canopy Rc - the overall canopy resistance (Rc). Rc= Rst+ Rns Rst - stomatal resistance with its associated mesophyll resistance (Rm) Rns - non-stomatal resistance.
Rns can be further decomposed into resistance to soil uptake, which includes in-canopy aerodynamic resistance (R ac) and the subsequent soil resistance (Rg), as well as resistance to cuticle uptake (Rcut).
Wet deposition refers to processes by which pollutants are scavenged by atmospheric hydrometeors (cloud and fog drops, rains).
Model evaluation
Operational evaluation How do the predicted concentrations compare to observed concentration data: determine errors and biases?
Dynamical evaluation Diagnostic evaluation Are error/biases due to model input or Can the model capture changes related to meteorological events or variations? modelled processes? Can the responsible process(es) be Can the model capture changes related to emission reductions? isolated?
Operational Evaluation
Determine errors and biases by means of statistical scores From FAIRMODE: http://fairmode.ew.eea.europa.eu/
Correlation coefficient Root Mean Square Error Index Of Agreement
Operational Evaluation
Meteorological data from Trisaia campaign: - data from VAISALAMAWS00 - humidity and temperature profiler HATPRO
Credits: Lina Vitali
The model has the appropriate spatial and temporal resolution for the intended application. The model is adequately validated for the particular application and well documented. The model contains the relevant physical and chemical processes suitable for the type of application, the scale and the pollutant for which it is applied.
The relevant emission sources for the application are adequately represented. Suitable meteorological data is available.
Model guidance (v6.2, FAIRMODE WG1) in support to application of the European Air Quality Directive (50/2008)
Model guidance (v6.2, FAIRMODE WG1) in support to application of the European Air Quality Directive (50/2008)
Model guidance (v6.2, FAIRMODE WG1) in support to application of the European Air Quality Directive (50/2008)
Model guidance (v6.2, FAIRMODE WG1) in support to application of the European Air Quality Directive (50/2008)
RAMS, LAPS
Sottosistema METEO
SURFPRO
Emission Manager
Meteo
Sottosistema EMISSIVO
Emissioni
Parametri di turbolenza
Campi EMEP IC e BC
FARM
Concentrazioni e Deposizioni
Sottosistema CHIMICO-FISICO
Transport + diffusion
Meteorolog y
Dry and wet gas deposition
Emission model: BVOC
Aerosol emissions
Gas emissions
EMISSIONI:
-antropiche: ISPRA inventario nazionale top-down + EMEP -biogeniche: ISPRA2005 per Italia e Guenther et al. (2005) per gli altri paesi comprese nel
2003
2007
20 km
4 km
g/m3
2003
2007
20 km
4 km
g/m3
Ozono (O3)
Media annuale del valore medio massimo giornaliero su 8 ore sulla base delle medie consecutive di 8 ore.
2005
2007
20 km
4 km
g/m3
2005
2007
20 km
4 km
g/m3
2005
2007
20 km
4 km
g/m3
2005
2007
20 km
4 km
g/m3
O3: correlazione
2003
2005
2007
Laumento della risoluzione spaziale delle simulazioni migliora laccordo tra le concentrazioni simulate e osservate alle stazioni di monitoraggio, e produce mappe di concentrazione pi accurate per stimare lesposizione della popolazione agli inquinanti atmosferici nocivi.
I risultati del modello sono in linea con i risultati degli altri modelli utilizzati in Europa, USA e Canada.
http://www.va.minambiente.it/condivisione/datiminni.aspx
Conclusions
Only an air quality/atmospheric scientist may offer problem-specific advice on how to best incorporate model output into the health problems and what model structure/model input may be suited to a specific research initiative. Only an air quality model can describe the chemical and physical state of the whole atmosphere at any time. Only an air quality model can predict the effect of emissions changes on future pollution.