Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Russell Goyder
THE PAST, PRESENT AND
FUTURE OF CURVES
TECHNICAL PAPER
The Past, Present and Future of Curves | iii
The Past, Present and Future of Curves
1 Introduction 1
2 The curve-building problem 2
2.1 Curve-building vs calibration 2
3 A brief history of curve-building 4
3.1 1980's approximations 4
3.2 1990's developments 8
3.2.1 Funding spread 8
3.2.3 Tenor basis swaps 12
3.2.4 Real swaps 12
3.3 Current challenges 13
3.3.1 OIS discounting 15
3.3.2 Choice of collateral currency 16
3.3.3 Multiple discounting methods 17
4 Future-proof curve-building 20
4.1 Model 20
4.2 Calibration Target 21
4.3 Instrument strategy 22
4.4 Optimizer 23
4.5 Source valuation approach 24
4.6 Target valuation approach 24
4.7 Calibration showcase 25
5 Example: Simple dual-curve OIS discounting bootstrap 26
5.1 Discount curve 26
5.2 LIBOR curve 28
5.3 Market data 28
5.4 Round trip 30
6 Example: Multi-currency CSA 35
7 Conclusion 38
Bibliography 39
About FINCAD 40
About the Authors 40
1 | The Past, Present and Future of Curves
1 INTRODUCTION
Reading about OIS discounting in the nancial press in recent months, it is hard to avoid the
following impression:
interest rate modeling for vanilla instruments was simple and well understood before the
credit crisis of 2008,
since the crisis, everything needs to be rethought from rst principles, resulting in a
paradigm shift in how swaps and other vanilla interest rate instruments are valued and how
curves are built, and
institutions around the globe are scrambling to update legacy valuation and risk
management systems to cope with this modeling revolution.
This position is only reinforced by an examination of recent press releases in the analytics
vendor space, which proudly announce the advent of dual curve bootstrapping capabilities
and list asset classes that can now be priced with the new approach, after a new software
release.
In general, this is not a bad approximation of reality. Many institutions around the world are
indeed expending considerable effort to update legacy systems to cope with the post-crisis
market. Many market participants are indeed having to throw out their existing understanding of
how vanilla rates derivatives are priced and learn a more sophisticated approach. But the notion
that these ideas and techniques themselves are new, dating to the aftermath of the 2008 credit
crisis, is false.
In fact, several market participants have taken the change comfortably in their stride, requiring
only minimal modication of their conceptual and software frameworks to cope with OIS
discounting and related effects. A truer characterization of the credit crisis effect is one of
popularizing this knowledge, hitherto conned to sophisticated trading operations only.
In this article, after a brief description of the curve-building problem (Sec. 2), we give a brief
history of the development of the ideas that now form the basis of modern curve-building (Sec. 3).
In doing so, we identify the key concepts and abstractions that are present in the problem, which
in turn form the basis of any generic curve-building system (Sec. 4). We nish the article with two
examples of building curves in F3, an analytics platform whose architecture predates the credit
crisis, but which has required no changes to keep pace with the recent revolution in interest
rate modeling. Our conclusion is given in Sec. 7.
The Past, Present and Future of Curves | 2
2 THE CURVE-BUILDING PROBLEM
Before describing the history of curve-building, it is useful to establish a clear denition of the
problem we are trying to solve. This is achieved most readily with a concrete example, after
which we generalize the concepts of a curve and curve-building in Sec. 2.1.
In order to calculate a price for many vanilla rates derivative securities, we must build a small
collection of curves. The archetypal example is a discount curve D(t), giving the current, t = 0,
price of one unit of currency paid at time t. Armed with such a curve, we can readily calculate
the value of a set of xed payments, such as the xed leg of a vanilla interest swap, given by
where N is the notional amount of the swap, c is the xed coupon and
i
is the accrual fraction
associated with the i
th
payment of a total of n, made at time t
i
. In such a vanilla swap, a xed leg
is typically exchanged for a oating leg that pays a variable rate whose value can be established
(observed) without ambiguity, when its value is required to determine a payment amount. In order
to calculate the value of such a oating leg, an additional curve is required. The leg value is given
by
where the additional curve is L(t). f
i
is the time at which an observation of the oating rate is
made in order to determine the amount paid at time t
i
and r is a margin, typically zero in a vanilla
xed-for-oating swap, but non-zero in oating-for-oating contracts such as tenor basis swaps.
The total number of payments m depends on the payment schedule and in general differs from n.
Strictly, the curves D(t) and L(t) are model parameters. They are not observable in the market
at the inception of a swap - only prices are available as market data. For swaps, the prices are
encoded as par rates - the value s of the xed coupon c that results in a swap having zero value
at inception
giving
Under a set of modeling assumptions such as those outlined above, it is straightforward to
calculate the price or par rate of a swap, given the curves D(t) and L(t). It is also possible,
although more challenging, to invert this calculation, nding the curves D(t) and L(t) that are
implied by market prices. It is this procedure that is termed curve-building and is the focus of this
article.
2.1 CURVE-BUILDING VS CALIBRATION
Curve-building is a special case of calibration. There are no rigorous denitions that distinguish
the two terms, but a key element of what most people regard as building curves is that curve
values are based only on derivatives for which we can construct a static hedge for the payoff; a
hedge can be constructed at trade inception and can be left untouched throughout the life of the
deal. In the vernacular, it can be priced off a curve (or curves).
3 | The Past, Present and Future of Curves
A static hedge can be constructed for any contract that only depends on todays expectation
of future events. An equivalent statement is that its payoff can be written as a linear function
of its underlyings. The most common non-linear payoff is that of an option - a swaptions value
today depends on the expected value as seen at the time the swaption expires of the swap into
which the holder may choose to exercise. Hedges for such contracts are dynamic; they must
be adjusted throughout the lifetime of the traded contract and their pricing requires a model for
the dynamics of the underlyings. The term calibration is typically used to refer to the process
of implying values of the parameters of such dynamical models from relevant market quotes,
typically European option prices, encoded as implied volatilities in the Black model ([1]).
In curve-building problems, the curves are indeed one-dimensional real-valued functions,
typically of time. They therefore match the usual notion of curve. In calibration problems,
however, the relevant curves are often two- or three-dimensional functions, or even constant
values, which can be regarded as zero-dimensional functions (functions of no arguments, or
nullary functions). Indeed, some valuations are based on objects which do not neatly t into the
mould of mathematical function at all - a manager of foreign exchange rates which enforces
correct handling of settlement conventions and consistent cross rates would be one example.
A crucial aspect of a truly generic calibration architecture is the set of abstractions in which it
is expressed. Identifying the right set of abstractions rests on nding the common link among
seemingly disparate concepts. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the common link here is not the
function-like (or otherwise) nature of the relevant objects, but the fact that they are all the
parameters of a pricing model. In turn, one of the most essential features of pricing model
parameters is that they form a dependency tree which must be managed if our valuations are
to be efcient, consistent and arbitrage-free. This concept of model parameter manager has
been termed Model and described in more detail in [2], which presents an exposition of the
essential concepts that underpin the design of modern analytics platforms.
We can now go further and dene a new concept related to that of Model:
We have chosen to label this concept as Curve because curves, in the conventional sense of
one-dimensional mathematical functions are the canonical example of pricing model parameters
that most of us meet. However, it is important to note that in the above denition, we have
stripped away all but the most essential and fundamental aspects of the notion of curve, as
it pertains to the problem of generic calibration. This hijacking of an established term may
prompt some controversy, but it is our belief that the rewards of a generic and exible calibration
system, that is exible enough to cope with changes that have necessitated comprehensive
reworking of other systems throughout the nancial industry, make the need to adjust to a more
general denition of the word curve worthwhile.
With this denition of Curve, although the examples in this article are based on vanilla interest
rate instruments and the corresponding one-dimensional function curves, the concepts
introduced in Sec. 4 cover all types of calibration and are not constrained to simple vanilla rates
securities at all. Indeed, a key point we make is that, with the correct architecture, a calibration
framework can be truly generic, coping easily with any curve-building problem seen to date in
the market and any that the future might hold.
Denition 1. The Curve Concept
A node in the dependency tree of pricing model parameters managed by a Model.
The Past, Present and Future of Curves | 4
3 A BRIEF HISTORY OF CURVE-BUILDING
In this section, we review the history of common curve-building practice, from the relatively early
days of derivatives trading in the 1980s through to the present. We then, in Sec. 4, consider the
collection of concepts relevant to any and all curve-building (and calibration) problems and apply
an embodiment of those ideas to two examples.
3.1 1980'S APPROXIMATIONS
Curve-building lived its early childhood in the 1980s. A good description of common market
practice at the time can be found in [3]. The then common assumption was that L(t) in Eq. (2)
could be expressed as the rate implicit in the curve D(t), via
where
(
t
a
, t
b
) is the day-count fraction between the times t
a
and t
b
dening the period
associated with the rate xed on t
f
.
The conventions for calculating the day-count fraction, together with the calculation of the times
t
a
and t
b
for a given xing time t
f
are part of the published denition of the rate. A widely-used
reference rate is LIBOR (see www.bbalibor.com). While the precise details are often moderately
complex, typically t
a
follows t
f
by a couple of days and t
b
follows t
a
by the tenor of the rate. The
rate is then paid at a time t
p
which is usually very close to t
b
. If it is not, then the rate is not paid at
its natural time and an accurate calculation of its value requires a timing convexity adjustment.
LIBOR in arrears is a common special case where t
p
~
t
a
, so that the rate is paid at the beginning
of its period. In this article we deal with vanilla swaps where such convexity effects (although
strictly present whenever the payment time does not precisely coincide with t
b
) are so small that
they are universally ignored by market participants.
Fig. 1 shows the collection of four distinct dates on which each payment of LIBOR is based in the
oating leg of a typical interest rate swap.
Fig. 1. The times relevant to a payment of LIBOR in a typical vanilla interest rate swap
Note that while t
a
t
f
, t
p
may precede t
b
.
In addition to the above assumption, there is another group of assumptions that were often
bundled with the rst. Namely that
1. the rates day-count convention matched exactly that of the trade and
2. the rates accrual period dened by t
a
and t
b
matched exactly the trades payment schedule,
so that for the i
th
payment period, t
i
=
t
b
and t
i1
=
t
a
, for all i.
~ 2 days
t
f
t
a
t
f
t
p
~ t
b
t
b
t
a
rate tenor
LIBOR period boundaries LIBOR xing time Payment time
time
t
p
5 | The Past, Present and Future of Curves
In other words, the dates in the trade line up with the dates in the rate. If these conditions are
met, the sum in Eq. (2) telescopes, with intermediate discount factors canceling, to yield the
simple form
If, in addition, we ignore any settlement delay that results in t
1
differing from the day on which the
swap is traded, and by implication valued, then we can simplify further to obtain
The motivation behind making these simplifying assumptions is that we can now solve Eq. (3) for
D(t
n
) in terms of { D(t
i
) i < n } and the market quote s to give
Given Eq. (6), it was common practice to implement a bootstrap calculation to solve for the full
set of { D(t
i
) }. In general, a bootstrap calculation is one where a curve C(t) is determined
sequentially by constraining the point at t
i
, C(t
i
), with a calculation that depends on previous
points in the curve, { C(t
j
) j < i }. This is illustrated in Fig. 2.
The Past, Present and Future of Curves | 6
Fig. 2. Schematic illustration of the bootstrapping concept.
To illustrate this bootstrap approach in the context of Eq. (6), assume (for now) that the frequency
of coupon payments matches that of the quotes, for example an annual xed coupon with quotes
for maturities which are separated by one year. Denote the quotes and corresponding maturity
times by {s
i
} i = 1 ... n and {t
i
} i = 1 ... n. The approach would then proceed as follows:
Initialize the t = 0 point on the discount curve to 1, D(0) = 1
Solve for D(t
1
):
1
D(t)
1
D(t)
D(1)
t
t
t
D(1)
D(2)
1y
1y 2y 3y
1y 2y
Together with the xed point
D(0) = 1, a point at 1 year,
with an interpolation scheme,
determines an entire curve.
D(1) is found by pricing a 1
year swap to par.
To nd D(2), we price a
2 year swap to par, using
a curve which remains
unchanged for all previous
maturities (in this case 1
year) but which varies with
each trial value of D(2)
explored by the algorithm.
Similarly, D(3) and
subsequent (D(t
i
)) points
are determined by pricing
instruments of increasing
maturity to par, based on a
curve whose earlier parts
have been xed by earlier
instruments, and whose last
section varies according to
each value of D(t
i
) explored
by the algorithm.
D(1)
D(2)
D(3)
7 | The Past, Present and Future of Curves
Solve for D(t
2
) in terms of D(t
1
):
Continue to iterate through the quotes until all are consumed and each point in the discount
curve is known in terms of earlier discount curve values and the given swap rates.
The end goal here is to obtain the curve D(t) which can be used to provide a discount factor for
a cash ow at an arbitrary time t, not just the { t
i
}. This is achieved by interpolation according
to a prescribed method. A common method for interpolating a discount curve is log-linear, which
results in exponential decay between the curve points { t
i
, D(t
i
)}:
Before a nished curve was obtained however, interpolation would usually be required as
part of the bootstrap, whenever the swaps' coupon period was smaller than the time between
quoted swap maturities, as for example in the case of swaps paying a coupon semi-annually or
quarterly. Fig. 3 illustrates the case of a one year, semi-annual swap:
Fig. 3. Setup used in a historical approach to bootstrapping a discount curve from a one year
swap quote, with semi-annual coupons and log-linear interpolation
The discount factor needed to value the rst coupon (paid at six months) is determined by the
one year discount factor together with a chosen interpolation method. Eq. (7) would then be
modied to give
D(t)
6 months 1 year
(swap maturity)
oating leg of swap
has 2 payments
Each discount curve
value at swap maturity,
plus log-linear
interpolation from (0,1),
denes a potential
discount curve.
xed leg of swap has
2 coupons
1
t
D(0.5)
D(1)
Swap valuation also requires that D(t) is evaluated at t = 0.5. D(0.5) is determined by D(1) together with an
interpolation rule.
If that rule is log-linear, then D(0.5) = D(1).
The Past, Present and Future of Curves | 8
With an explicit approach like this, changing from one interpolation method to another requires
signicant code changes. Instead of the closed-form Eq. (8), a numerical root-nding algorithm
can be applied to nd the { D(t
i
) }, which allows an arbitrary choice of interpolation method.
This is our rst example of generalizing a very bespoke calculation in order to improve its ability
to cope with changing requirements.
3.2 1990'S DEVELOPMENTS
As we shall see shortly in Sec. 3.2.1, Eq. (4) makes an implicit statement about the cost of funding
future cash ows, and by implication also about an institution's credit quality. In the early 90s,
an increasing number of market participants began to be aware of this and take it into account
in their curve-building. As the 90s progressed, it also became apparent that Eq. (4) was unable
to yield consistent pricing calculations across multiple currencies. While a given collection of
domestic swap markets could be matched with that approach, the resulting curves were unable
to price cross-currency basis swaps between them. This is explored in Sec. 3.2.2. In addition, it
became apparent that the additional assumptions of Sec. 3.1 were not necessary to construct a
bootstrap calculation. Instead of curves based on idealized swaps, real swaps (as described in
Sec. 3.2.4) began to be used.
3.2.1 FUNDING SPREAD
The discount curve D(t) is not observable in any market. There is no absolute notion of
"the time value of money" or "the risk free" rate - they are modeling constructs, the latter
appearing essentially in academic treatments. The only reality is the market; quoted prices for
traded assets. When using these quotes to imply a curve D(t), we are really asking what the
effective time value of money is for us, if we participate in that market, and hedge our position
with instruments funded at the rate implicit in D(t). In other words, the appropriate rate for
discounting cash ows in valuations such as Eq. (3) is the rate at which we can borrow (and
lend) in order to hedge our position.
Eq. (4) says that this rate is LIBOR, which is almost certainly not true. As is now almost common
knowledge on the high street in light of press coverage of recent scandals, LIBOR is just the
average (and topped and tailed) rate at which a representative of each of a collection of London
banks say they think the bank can borrow from another. Reality will be different. If a bank is
unusually creditworthy, its borrowing rate will be lower than LIBOR, and higher if otherwise. This
can be modeled readily by adjusting Eq. (4) to become
where S(t) is a spread curve, which encodes the extra creditworthiness (or the converse) of a
given market participant. With S(t) known (or assumed), we are left with just one unknown curve,
D(t), which can be found by the bootstrapping techniques described in Subsec. 3.1.
Simpler still is a at spread S(t) = s which allows the approach of Eq. (6) to be maintained, with
the modication s s s. Due to this approximation, an approach to bootstrapping based on the
approximations that led to Eq. (6) persists even today in many systems. It was only with increased
liquidity in the cross-currency swap market that this simple approach broke down, as described
in Sec. 3.2.2, and the same techniques used to match the cross-currency and tenor basis swap
markets were used in the higher-delity treatment necessary to capture some features of real
swaps, as described in Sec. 3.2.4.
9 | The Past, Present and Future of Curves
3.2.2 CROSS-CURRENCY SWAPS
At about the same time, it became apparent that the assumption in Eq. (4) was unable to yield
consistent pricing calculations across multiple currencies. While a given collection of domestic
swap markets could be matched with that approach, the resulting curves were unable to price
cross-currency basis swaps between them.
A (resetting) cross-currency basis swap quote measures the difference between corresponding
LIBOR rates in a pair of currencies, which we term here the asset and numeraire currencies
and , such that the exchange rate X(t) gives the value in the numeraire currency of a payment
at time t of one unit of asset currency. In other words, X(t) converts from to . Although its
expected value will be given by interest rate parity later in Eq. (12), the following development
prior to that point holds for any exchange rate dynamics, because we are expressing only
contract terms, not making modeling statements.
We seek an expression for the price in the numeraire currency of such a swap, in order to solve
for curve values that result in a par valuation. In order to arrive at such an expression, we need
to account for some subtle structure in such instruments whose net effect is to isolate exposure
to the difference between the LIBOR rate in each currency from exposure to X(t). The structure
of a resetting cross currency swap is illustrated in Fig. 4. In addition to interest rate payments,
the swap's principal is exchanged on each roll. Note that the amount of principal paid and
received on each roll in the numeraire currency is the notional N scaled by the exchange rate at
the start of the period.
Fig. 4. The structure of a cross-currency swap
0 2
In the asset currency :
In the numeraire currency :
front-and-back payments of the
Z-worth of the notional amount N in
currency , at the start of the period.
time
time
1
N
N
NX
0
N
NX
1
NX
0
NX
1
L
1
L
1
m
L
2
m
L
2
N
The Past, Present and Future of Curves | 10
Translating the asset currency cash ows into the numeraire currency and combining all the
ows into one diagram, we can see how some of them cancel, in Fig. 5.
Fig. 5. Cross-currency swap cash ows expressed in the numeraire currency
Fig. 6 shows the net ows of principal, which when subtracted from the initial principal result
in an amortizing principal structure, where the notional amount on which LIBOR is paid in each
currency is exactly that required to isolate exposure to changes in the LIBOR rates and not the
exchange rate.
Fig. 6. Cross-currency swap cash ow cancellation
In light of the above analysis, the value in the numeraire currency of such a swap's coupons can
be written as
for asset currency notional N, where the asset currency's LIBOR rate L
i
is paid at time t
j
in
the numeraire currency and where the corresponding rate in the numeraire currency, L
j
is
combined with a spread m before being paid at time t
j
.
i
and
j
are the associated accrual
fractions and we have now labeled the discount curves with and to distinguish between
the two currencies. The times at which each LIBOR and exchange rate are observed are to be
determined using the relevant market conventions in the given currencies.
NX
1
L
1
X
1
NX
1
In the numeraire currency :
convert each payment at i
using X
i
time
NX
0
NX
0
NX
1
NX
2
NX
0
NX
1
L
1
L
2
X
2
m
L
2
m
Net notional ows in currency :
Remaining notional amounts:
Resulting swap structure:
N(X
2
X
1
) N(X
1
X
0
)
NX
0
+ N(X
1
X
0
)
= NX
1
NX
1
+ N(X
2
X
1
)
= NX
2
0
NX
0
L
1
NX
1
m
L
2
NX
2
m
L
1
X
1
N
NX
i
(L
i
L
i
m)
V =
i = 1
I
L
2
X
2
N
11 | The Past, Present and Future of Curves
As we have seen, this expression merely encodes the value in one currency of such a swap
and the mechanics of a typical real swap are considerably different, involving payments in
each currency of the interest earned by each leg, plus payments based on the exchange rate
X(t) in order to isolate pure interest rate risk from foreign exchange (FX) exposure. While the
appearance of the FX rate X(t) in the rst term of Eq. (10) comes from converting payments made
in the asset currency to the numeraire currency, the same FX rate in the second term embodies
the net effect of exchanging the swap's notional amount N on each roll of the swap in such a
manner that the effective notional for the numeraire currency leg is NX(t).
In the approximation where we suppose that the two legs' schedules and accrual fractions
match (as in Fig. 6), then we may write Eq. (10) as
where the effective rate L'(t) is dened as
Eq. (11) clearly shows how a cross-currency swap exposes the holder to the difference between
two LIBOR rates, one in each of the currencies it spans.
Imposing the absence of arbitrage via the interest rate parity condition that
we arrive at a condition that must be met by the four curves D
(t), L
(t), D
(t) and L
(t), namely
for each quoted margin m, if they are to result in a model that yields market-consistent pricing.
If the two numeraire currency curves D
(t) and L
(t), L
(t
i
) and L
(t
i
f
) to nd, where t
i
f
is the LIBOR xing time for a payment at t
i
. We
now have a well-posed problem, which therefore has a well-dened solution, although it is no
longer possible to derive a simple formula like Eq. (6) that allows the two unknown curves D
(t)
and L