i
= 0 i = 1, ..., nc (1)
dT = 0 (2)
where
i
chemical mole potential of i component,
F
i
= M
i
g gravity force effecting every ith component,
g gravity acceleration constant,
M
i
molecular mass of i component,
or for one dimension (vertical) (isothermal (dT = 0), Gibbs sedimentation equation):
0 1,...,
i
i
d
M g i nc
dz
m
  = = (3)
The eq. (4) allows to describe the change of partial molar fugacity, under isothermal
conditions in the presence of gravity force, and it takes the form:
1 1 0 1 1
( )
( , ( ), ,..., ) ( , ( ), ,..., )exp
( )
i o
i nc i o onc
M g z z
f T p z x x f T p z x x
RT
 
 
=
(4)
where
x
0
(x
01
, x
02
,, x
0nc1
) composition of uid at the z
0
level,
x(x
1
, x
2
,, x
nc1
) composition of uid at the z level,
For isothermal conditions, the chemical potential is the function of pressure and
composition:
1
. ,
( )
j i
nc
i i
i T j
j
j
T P x
grad grad p grad x
p x
m m
m
=
= +
(5)
and for one vertical direction becomes:
1
( )
nc
j
i i i
T
j
j
dx
dp
z p dz x dz
m m m
=
= +
. ,
j i
T P x
(6)
713
By substitution of hydrostatic gradient:
( )
dp
z g
dz
r =  (7)
and using relation that
i
i
T
v
p
m
=
, (where v
i
partial molar specic volume of i com
ponent),
we can write:
1
nc
j
i
i i
j
j
dx
M g v g
x dz
m
r
=
 =  +
,
j i
T P x
,
(8)
or
1
, ,
1
( ) ( )
j
nc
j
i
P T x i i
j
j
dx
g v M
x dz
m
r

=
= 
(9)
The eg. (9) is valid for multicomponent isothermal system in presence of hydrostatic
gradient and it can be written in the matrix form:
A
.
X = C (10)
where:
1 1
i
ij
j
nc x nc
x
m
 
A
1 1
j
j
x nc
dx
dz

=
X
[ ]
1 1
( )
i i i x nc
g v M r

=  C
The eqs. (1), (2) and (7) allow to evaluate equilibrium conditions of multicomponent
system in the presence of gravity force with the absence of capillary forces. It means
that vertical thermal gradient in the reservoir is negligible. Details how use of set of eq.
(9), its limitations, singularity may be found in Firoozabadi (1998), Hoeier & Whitson
(2001) Nagy (2003). The eg. (9) may be also derived using denition of molar chemical
potential in nc + 2 space (nc components plus pressure and temperature) with neglect
ing thermal gradient. In real situation eq. (9) may be solved for X
j
using correction
of temperature by the geothermal gradient at next computation step with composition
data and reference pressure and temperature taken from starting point. To illustrate this
714
problem possible variation of change of saturation pressure in vertical prole (Nagy,
2003) computed using PR TsaiChen EOS (Tsai & Chen 1998) based upon reference
data from Smith et al. (2000) has been presented in Fig. 1.
Fig. 1. Change of saturation pressure in vertical prole (Nagy, 2003) reference data
from Smith et al. (2000) (Maximum saturation pressure at the GasOil Contact)
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
250 300 350 400 450 500
Saturation pressure [bar]
D
e
p
t
h
[
m
]
3. Geologic Reserves of Natural Gas & Black Oil Reservoirs
During analysis of petroleum reserves we must keep in mind that:
a) petroleum reserves denitions are not static and will be revised as additional geo
logic or engineering data become available or as economic conditions change,
b) reserves may be attributed to either natural energy or improved recovery met
hods,
c) reserves depend upon several parameters:
complexity of geology
stage of development of project
degree of depletion of the reservoirs
quality and amount of available data
present economic and regulatory conditions.
715
The most classical approach for estimation of GasCondensate Systems was pre
sented in Craft & Hawkins (1959) and Arps (1962) and was rather deterministic with
the use of single average para me ter estimation. Two main equations for volumetric
reserve estimation are:
(1 ) /
HC w
N V NTG S FVF f =  (11)
(1 ) /
HC w g
G V NTG S B f = 
(12)
where V
HC
reservoir volume with hydrocarbon saturation (above OWC or GWC where
exist gas only), effective porosity fraction, S
w
water saturation fraction, NTG Net
to Gross coefcient, FVF, BgFormation Volume Factor for oil and for gas. The more
complicated equations are related to gascondensate system (Craft & Hawkins, 1959;
http://www.spe.org; Siemek et al., 1987).
4. Probabilistic Methods Applied to the Grading Phenomena
in GasCondensate and Volatile Oils Fields
For methods can be used for volumetric estimation of the reserves. They are:
parametric methods (Davidson & Cooper 1994), Monte Carlo (Newendorp, 1975), PIP
(Murtha, 1994) and Bootstrap (Mishra, 1998). Stochastic reservoir model for oil (or gas)
reserves can be evaluated expression:
( , , ) /
R w
D
N I x y z NTG S FVF dxdydz f =  ( , , ) x y z ( , , ) x y z 1 ( , , ) x y z ( )/ , , ) x y z (
(13)
where
D domain covering the reservoir,
I
R
(x, y, z) = 1 inside reservoir and
I
R
(x, y, z) = 0 outside reservoir,
NTG(x, y, z) net to gross ratio,
(x, y, z) porosity,
S
w
(x, y, z) water saturation,
FVF(x, y, z) volume formation factor.
5. Sensitivity Analysis
There are several uncertain factors related to denitions of reserves in the gas/conden
sate/oil systems. In generally there is not taken into consideration grading compositional
effect or nonrepresentative sampling of hydrocarbon uid or compositional grading
(CG) . In grading case the uncertainty of FVF may rise up to 50%.
716
5.1. Reserve Volume Estimation
According to Arps (1962) reserve volume may be evaluated by planimetering or
numerical integration (Simpson, trapezoidal, pyramidal) of horizontal and vertical
slices. The real porous model systems are much more complicated. The layer is usu
ally nonhorizontal (slope) with anisotropy and heterogeneity. Also discontinuity may
change shape of the reservoir. The properties of rock may be spatially varied vertically
or laterally. Considering uncertainties in the structure and reservoir volume minimum
three scenarios can be proposed: pessimistic (minimum value, most likely and optimistic
(highest value). These values will be used in the Monte Carlo reserves simulation.
5.2. Sensitivity to Porosity and Effective Pay Thickness
(Net to Gross)
The parameters like porosity and effective pay thickness depend on type of geologi
cal heterogeneity of rocks. There are three different types of heterogeneity in sandstones
(different depositional units in the same reservoir, lateral & multiple reservoirs appar
ently blanket sands, shale breaks of indeterminate aerial extends) and two types in
carbonate reservoirs.
5.3. Sensitivity to Water Saturation
The water saturation is usually computed from well logs using some of simply
formulas (eg. Archie, Humble, etc.).It is possible to determine characteristic of distribu
tion (vertical/lateral) or estimate triangular distribution with minimal, most likely and
maximum water saturation based on the computed logs and cores data.
5.4. Sensitivity to FVF
The following phenomena may be important for sensitivity evaluation of Formation
Volume Fluid (FVF): capillary/adsorption phenomena (in the tight rocks), non repre
sentative sample (in appraisal well), grading composition of uid. In case of improper
sampling of gas condensate system (e.g. with non stable GOR) the PVT properties may
mask current estimation of HCIIP. The errors of estimation can be as high as 50% or
more. The thermodynamic analyses together with the accu mula tion/generation factors
are the most important for xing the present uid conguration. The gravity force plays
also important role in the vertical segregation of uid. It is observed that the lightest and
heaviest components are moving into the deepest and shallowest place in the reservoir.
The mechanism of thermal diffusion in critical region has not been yet recognized,
esp. for intermediate component in the condensate system (Hoeier & Whitson, 2001).
717
The component based method will take into account vertical changes of hydrocarbon
fraction of each component. Instead of average volume thermodynamic properties, eq.
may be written:
top
bottom
h
nc
ST i w
i 1
h
G f { (h) A(h) NTG(h) (h)[1 S (h)]} dh
=
= r f 
(14)
where
f
ST
Standard condition for gas (or Stock Tank for oil) coefcient,
A(h) vertical function of reservoir area,
NTG(h) net to gross function of depth (related to nonproductive layers),
(h) effective porosity function of depth,
S
w
(h) water saturation function vs depth.
Reserves in the grading system depend not only on vertical prole of PVT and other
parameters, but also on the shape of trap.
6. Examples of calculation
Sensitivity analysis of traditional (average) composition to improper sampling and
to grading composition process of reservoir uid in estimation OIIP/GIIP has been per
formed. The isothermal case without in the depth range (TVD) 3162m3241m has been
examined rst. The computation has been done using modied and translated PengRob
inson Equation of State (VTTP, see Nagy, 2002; Nagy & Olajossy, 2007, 2008). The con
stants and formulas needed to calculation may be found in the original work (TsaiChen
(1998) except of formula for fugacity which is may be taken from Nagy (2002). In the Fig.
1 there is located saturated GasOilContact, in the depth position when maximum satura
tion pressure is given. The sampling data of Jarmillo & Barrufet (2001) have been used to
evaluate Initial Hydrocarbon Volume in the compositional grading system (a) and when
GC is not included (1 volatile oil, 2 Gas Condensate, 3 Two Phase reservoir), which
is shown in the Fig. 3. The Distribution of reservoir parameters used in Monte Carlo simu
lation is presented in the Table 2 and in the Fig. 2. The sensitivity of improper sampling
of grading oil on proven, possible and probable reserves (based on data from Jarmillo
& Barrufet, 2001) has been presented in the Fig. 4.
718
TABLE 1
Distribution of reservoir parameters used in Monte Carlo simulation for IHV in: 1 Oil, 2 Gas
Condensate, 3 Two Phase reservoir sampling data Jarmillo & Barrufet (2001)
Parameter Min Most likely Max
Vhc [m
3
] 1.0 10
6
1.210
6
1.4510
6
Phi [] 0.09 0.11 0.14
Sw [] 0.75 0.80 0.82
FVF [m
3
/m
3
] 0.5413 0.5415 0.5418
NTG [] 0.8 0.92 0.93
Fig. 2. Distribution of reservoir parameters used in Monte Carlo simulation (units as in Table 1)
Fig. 3. Comparison of Initial Hydrocarbon Volume (relative to GC case) in the compositional grading
system (a) and when GC is not included (1 volatile oil, 2 Gas Condensate, 3 Two Phase reservoir)
(based on data of Jarmillo & Barrufet, 2001)
Vhc Phi Sw NTG
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Parameter
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e
v
a
l
u
e
(
m
i
n
,
m
a
x
,
m
o
s
t
l
i
k
e
l
y
)
1a 2a 3a 1b 2b 2b
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
I
n
i
t
i
a
l
H
C
V
o
l
u
m
e
[
%
]
719
TABLE 3
Example of parameter distribution used as example of calculation
Parameter Min. Most likely Max.
Volume [10
8
m
3
] 1.800 2.00 2.200
NTG [] 0.810 0.90 0.990
PHI [] 0.135 0.15 0.165
SW [] 0.270 0.30 0.330
OilFVF [m
3
/m
3
] 11.35 18.98 25.26
GasFVF [m
3
/m
3
] 0.0057 0.0058 0.0060
TABLE 4
Example of computation of reserves P90,P50 &P10 for two distribution (crisp, triangular)
Condensate reserves
[10
6
Sm
3
]
Gas reserves
[10
9
Sm
3
]
Type of reserves
Crisp Triangular Crisp
8.33 9.085 29.73 29.74 P90
9.94 9.932 32.28 32.51 P50
17.7 12.15 39.15 39.77 P10
Based upon triangular presented in the table 2 MC simulation has been performed.
Triangular distribution favor the estimated maximum point taken from the model
parameter prefers any random pseudogenerated value from the variable range. The
Latin Hypercubic sampling (LHC) has been chosen, because LHC method reduces the
number of samples and variance (Rubinstein, 1981, Iman et al. 1980). One run in full
triangular distribution of all parameters (PVT1) and one additional simulation run for
crisp PVT data (PVT2) for each phase has been performed. The preparation of gas and
condensate phases has been done using ash procedure described in Nagy (1996, 2002)
Fig. 4. The sensitivity of improper sampling of grading oil on proven, possible and probable reserves
(based on data from Jarmillo & Barrufet, 2001) percent of IOiP
MID SAMPLE TOP SAMPLE BOTTOM SAMPLE
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
Proven
Possible
Probable
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
[
%
]
720
using PengRobinson(1976) equation of state (EOS) type (Tsai & Chen, 1998; Nagy,
2002) (is standard conditions). Data of gascondensate systems composition are taken
(from Walsh & Raghavan 1994). Example of parameter distribution used as example
of calculation is presented in Tab. 3. The calculations of reserves has been presented in
Fig. 5) for condensate phase. It is evident based on observation of Fig. 5, that introducing
possible inaccuracies into the Oil Formation Volume Factor based upon earlier estimation
of improper CGR estimation (40%) causes movement of true probability cumulative
curve and its scouring. The comparison of proven and possible and probable reserves
for condensate and gas phase is given in the table 4. The movement of P90 reserves is
8.3%. The effect is negligible for gas phase The errors for P10 for condensate phase are
45% and for gas phase 1.6%.
Fig. 5. Estimation of P90, P50 & P10 type of condensate reserves PVT2 true recombination sampling
PTV1 with high uncertainties in CGR
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Condensate reserve [10 Sm ]
3 3
PVT1
PVT2
P90
P50
P10
7. Technical Contribution
The improper sampling and improper PVT uid characterization has signicance
of optimization of separation and processing of gas condensate system. Specially, im
proper estimation of saturation pressure may greatly inuence on productivity of well
and may inuence on separation of uid in near well zone. This may led to decrease of
721
productivity of well as well as decrease overall gas and condensate production. Proper
identication of grading phenomena allows better designing phase of exploitation (e.g.
processing plant, gas/water injection etc.)
8. Economical Contribution
The overestimation of GIIP and/or OIIP for gascondensate/volatile oils systems
may lead to non optimal economical decision during appraisal stage of eld development
and increase of risk estimation for investment process. The underestimation condensate
rate may lead to exploitation problems related to two phase ow near well zone and
nally may kill the well.
9. Final Conclusions
1. Evaluation of uncertainties in the estimation of geological reserves based upon ver
tical compositional grading may be done be use of interval gridding technique.
Impact of grading phenomena and grading/capillarityadsorption on positioning
of GOC and GIIP/OIIP may be signicant.
2. The large impact of improper PVT on the condensate phase reserve estimation
has been observed.
3. Other uncertainties in estimation of hydrocarbon liquid reserves (for grading
reservoirs) using reservoir simulation may be caused by: data inaccuracies; data
coverage; data smoothing/interpolating; numerical solution limits.
4. Applications of presented method are restricted only to gas condensate/volatile
oils during processes of: proven reserve estimation process, developing phase of
exploitation, and separation and processing.
5. Technical and economical contributions are strictly connected with estimation
of lower and upper limit of GIIP and OIIP for gascondensate/volatile oils sys
tems. The additional important question is problem of reserves risk estimation
for investment process
6. The sensitivity to the FVF of grading system is high, when improper sampling
will be included into Monte Carlo simulation (see. Fig. 5) and can reach 50% of
correct reserve estimation in case of bottom sampling of grading gascondensate
system.
722
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