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Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

Shipping Statistics
and Market Review
Market Review
Analytical Focus
Volume 56 No 1/2 - 2012
World Merchant Fleet
World Bulk Carrier Market
World Tanker Market
World Container and General Cargo Shipping
World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns
World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/
ISL Cruise Fleet Register
World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders
Major Shipping Nations
World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffc
ISL Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics, Bremen, 2012
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Comment - World merchant fleet
SSMR January/February 2012
www.isl.org




This short comment is an excerpt from the Analytical Comment published in the
ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 1/2 2012.


The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the analytical focus
and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review).
For more information compare attached contents
























If you are interested in the complete publication covering all
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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
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editors.
ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL
Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the Short
Comment) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their
consequences.
Shipping Statistics
and Market Review
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics
World Merchant Fleet
ISL Comment ...........................................................
ISL InfoLine Special .................................................
ISL Statistical Tables ................................................
Market Review
Economic Indicators .................................................
World Merchant Fleet ..................................................
Freight and Charter Market .......................................
Shipping Prices and Costs .........................................
World Shipbuilding ...................................................
World Port Traffic .....................................................
9
13
18
51
54
57
69
70
72
Volume 56 (2012)
ISSN 0947 - 0220
published 9 times per year
Analytical Focus
(double issues Jan./Feb., May/ June.
and Sept./ Oct.)
No 1/2 - 2012
Abbreviations/Symbols www.isl.org
SSMR January/February 2012
Abbreviations
ARA Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam range
AWES Association of West European Shipbuilders
b/d Barrels per day
BHP Brake horsepower
cgt Compensated gross tonnage
cif Cost, insurance, freight
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
COD Country of Domicile
CPE Centrally-planned Economies
CPI Consumer price index
cST Centi Stokes
cu.m Cubic metres (also m3)
DB Double bottom
DC Developing Countries
DH Double hull
DIS Danish International Ship Register
DME Developed market economies
DS Double sides
dwt Deadweight tons
d/y Day/year
ECB European Central Bank
EMEs Emerging Market Economies
EU European Union
FY Fiscal year
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
fio Free in and out
fob Free on board
FT Freight tons
ft Foot
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
gt Gross tonnage
HP Horsepower
HT Harbour ton
ibf Intermediate bunker fuel
IEA International Energy Agency
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMO International Maritime Organization
in. Inch
ITF International Transport Workers Federation
km Kilometre
loa Length overall
lbs Pounds
LDT Light displacement tons
LDC Less Developed Countries
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
LT Long ton
m Metre
mbd Million barrel per day
mdo Marine diesel oil
MED Mediterranean
MfA Marine fishing area
mill Million
M/T Motor tanker
MT Metric tons
mtd per ton fob delivered
mth Month
mtw Per ton ex wharf
n.a. Not available
NDRF National Defence Reserve Fleet
n.e.c. Not elsewhere classified
neg. Negligible
NIS Norwegian International Ship Register
no Number
NODC Non-oil Producing Developing Countries
nrt Net register tonnage
nt Net tonnage
NWE,NW Northwest Europe
o.a. Over all
OBO Ore/bulk/oil carrier
OECD Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development
O/O Ore/oil carrier
OPEC Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries
OR Ordinary Register
P/C Products carrier
Pr/OBO Product/ore-bulk-oil carrier
r Revised
Ro/ro Roll-on/roll-off
RT Revenue ton
SAR Special administration region
SBT Ship segregated ballast tanks
SDR Special drawing rights
SSMR ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review
ST Short ton
t Ton/tonne
TB Tug/barge
TEU Twenty feet equivalent unit
TKB Tanker barge
T/S Tanker/steam
T/T Tanker/turbine
ULCC Ultra large crude carrier
USAC United States Atlantic Coast
USD US Dollar
VLCC Very large crude carrier
WS Worldscale
WTO World Trade Organization
YR, YRS Year, Years


Symbols
... Data not available
- Nil
0/0.0 Less than half of unit employed
1995-2004 From 1995 to 2004 inclusive
2002/03 Crop year, fiscal year etc., beginning
in 2002 and terminating in 2003

Billions means a thousand million
Detailed items in tables do not necessarily add to totals
because of rounding






For further explanation (e.g. Glossary)
please visit: www.isl.org/infoline

Contents Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org
SSMR January/February 2012 3
Page
ISL Comment World merchant fleet

(1) WORLD TONNAGE SUPPLY
1.1 Ship Type Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ............................................................ 5
1.2 Age and Size Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ........................................................ 6
1.3 Ownership Patterns of the World Merchant Fleet ......................................................... 7
(2) MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
2.1 World Seaborne Trade ............................................................................................ 8
2.2 Rates and Prices .................................................................................................... 9
(3) FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY
3.1 Tankers ............................................................................................................... 10
3.2 Bulk Carriers ......................................................................................................... 10
3.3 General Cargo and Container Ships ......................................................................... 10
(4) WORLD SHIPBUILDING -
FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY
4.1 Total Order Book by Ship Type ................................................................................ 11
4.2 Outlook impact of the crisis .................................................................................. 12
SUMMARY TABLES - COMMENT
Tab. 1 World Merchant Fleets Reductions by Major Ship Types 2008 - 2011 ............................ 5
Tab. 2 World Merchant Fleet's Newbuilding Additions by Major Ship Types 2008 - 2011 ............. 5
Tab. 3 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type 2007 and 2011 ..................................................... 6
Tab. 4 Largest Ships by Ship type per Ship Type Category 2011 ............................................. 7
Tab. 5 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type and National and Foreign Flag 2008, 2011 and 2012 ... 7
Tab. 6 Development of Major Open Registry Flags 2008-2012 ................................................ 7
Tab. 7 Newbuilding Additions of the Top 5 Countries of Domicile by National and Foreign Flag 2011 8
Tab. 8 Total World Merchant Fleet (Registered and Controlled) by Region 2012 ........................ 8
Tab. 9 Ship Type Contribution for Selected OECD Countries (Controlled Fleet) 2012 .................. 8
Tab. 10 Controlled Fleets of Major Shipping Nations 2008-2012 ............................................... 9
Tab. 11 End-year Rate Level for Benchmark Tanker Trades 12/2009-12/2011 ............................ 10
Tab. 12 Total Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Country of Build 2012 .................................... 11
Tab. 13 New Orders by Major Ship Types during 2007 2011 ................................................. 11
Tab. 14 Total Order Book by Major Ship Types 2008-2012 ...................................................... 12
Tab. 15 Major Shipbuilding Countries Order Book and cgt per Cent-Shares of Total Order Book ..... 12
FIGURES - COMMENT
Fig. 1 World Merchant Fleet Annual Tonnage Changes 20002012 ...................................... 5
Fig. 2 World Tonnage Additions and Reductions 2000-2012 .................................................. 5
Fig. 3 World Merchant Fleet Age Structure by Major Ship Types 2012 .................................. 6
Fig. 4 World Merchant Fleet Ship Size Development of Selected Ship Types 1991-2012 .......... 6
Fig. 5 Total World Merchant Fleet by National and Foreign Registries 20008-2012 .................... 7
Fig. 6 Country Groups Fleets Share on Ship Types of the World Merchant Fleet 2012 ............... 8
Fig. 7 Controlled Fleet Development of Major Shipping Nations 2008-2012 .............................. 8
Fig. 8 Monthly Development of Baltic Indices 2008-2011 ...................................................... 9
Fig. 9 Monthly HARPEX Container Charter Rate Index up to December 20010 .......................... 9
Fig. 10 Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Merchant Fleets by Type 2000-2012 ......... 10
Fig. 11 Tanker Fleet - Development of New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011 ................. 10
Fig. 12 Bulk fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011 ........................................ 10
Fig. 13 General Cargo Fleet New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, 2006-2011, quarterly ............. 10
Fig. 14 Container Ships - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011, quarterly ................. 11
Fig. 15 World Order Book Quarterly Development by Major Ship Types 2006-2011 .................... 11
Fig. 16 Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries as of January 1
st
, 2012 ............ 12

ISL InfoLine Special World merchant fleet
ISL Statistical Tables World merchant fleet
(1) WORLD MERCHANT FLEET
1.1 Keyfigures as of January 1
st
, 2012 ............................................................................ 16
1.2 Ranking by Flag as of January 1
st
, 2011 and 2012 ...................................................... 17
1.3 By Major Flags and Ship Type as of January 1
st
, 2012 .............................................. 20
1.4 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Regions and Ship Type 2012 ..... 22
1.5 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Country Groups/Ship Type 2012 23
1.6 Fleet Development by Ship Type 2008, 2010-2012 ..................................................... 24
1.7 By Division of Age and Ship Type as of January 1
st
, 2012 ............................................. 27
1.8 By Size Class and Ship Type as of January 1
st
, 2012 ................................................... 28
1.9 By Summer Draught and Ship Type as of January 1
st
, 2012 No of Ships ...................... 30
1.10 By Country of Domicile as of January 1
st
, 2012 ........................................................... 31
1.11 Top Ten Countries of Domicile by Major Ship Types as of January 1
st
, 2008, 2011 and 2012 32
13
18-43
5-16
4 SSMR January/February 2012
ISL Statistical Tables World merchant fleet (continued)
(2) BROKEN-UP MERCHANT SHIPS
(YEARLY ANALYSIS)
2.1 Broken-up Ships by Type 2001 - 2011 ...................................................................... 33
2.2 Average Age of Broken-up Ships by Type 2001-2011 .................................................. 33
2.3 Broken-up Ships by Major Flags and Type January December 2011 ......................... 34
2.4 Broken-up ships by Country Groups of Registration and Type January December 2011 .. 34
2.5 Broken-up ships by Year of Build and Ship Type January December 2011 .................... 35
2.6 Broken-up ships by Size Class and Type January December 2011 ............................... 35
(3) DEVELOPMENT OF
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE
3.1 Seaborne Trade Volume in Tonnes 1990-2011 ........................................................... 36
(4) WORLD ORDER BOOK -
FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY
4.1 Ships on Order by Type as of January 1st, 2011 and 2012 ........................................... 37
4.2 Ships on Order by Major Types and Country of Build as of January 1st, 2011 and 2012 .... 37
4.3 Ships on Order by Type and Major Shipyards as of January 1st, 2012 ............................ 38
4.4 Ships on Order by Ship Type and Delivery Schedule as of January 1st, 2012 .................. 38
4.5 Ships on Order by Country of Build and Delivery Schedule as of January 1st, 2012 .......... 39
4.6 Ships on Order by Type and DWT-Size Class as of January 1
st
, 2012 ............................. 39
4.7 Additions to Order Book by Ship Type and Major Countries of Build 20082011 ............... 40
FIGURES STATISTICAL TABLES
Fig. 1 Tankers and Dry Cargo Ships Broken-up 1990 - 2011 ................................................. 33
Fig. 2 Cargo Carried by World Fleet 1990 - 2011 ................................................................. 37
Fig. 4 Total World Order Book by Major ship types 2001-2012 .............................................. 38



New ISL Publication ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2011


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yearbook for many years as a source for market
analysis.
The various development indicators are presented
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The Shipping Market
Shipbuilding
Ports and Sea Canals
Moreover the Yearbook comprises an indepth
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The ISL Yearbook is a unique, worldwide distributed
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18-43
Comment - World merchant fleet
SSMR January/February 2012
www.isl.org
5
1 FLEET DEVELOPMENT 2011
Global shipping experienced a turbulent year due to a
combination of falling freight rates, ship oversupply and
tighter bank lending.
As regards charter and freight rates, the year 2011 was
rather mixed. It started well for ship owners with freight
rates similar to those at the end of 2010. In container
shipping, rates even increased during the first half, but
almost all markets were on a downward trend towards the
end of 2011.
The year also brought a lot of change to the world
merchant fleet. Never in the past had so much capacity
been added to the fleet within one year. At the same time,
ship breakers were busier than during the crisis year 2009.
Fleet
The world merchant fleet continues to expand rapidly.
After 146 million dwt of new capacity added in 2010, at
least 2,775 newbuildings with a combined tonnage of 164
million dwt were delivered in 2011, resulting in an 8.4 per
cent growth of the world merchant fleet. The capacity of
ships delivered in 2011 was 12.2 per cent higher than in
the already exceptional year 2010. Bulk carriers
contributed nearly two thirds to the tonnage delivered in
2011.
At the beginning of 2012, the total world merchant fleet
comprised 48,197 ships with 1.46 billion dwt and 15.3
million TEU. With a plus of 14.7 per cent, the dry bulk
sector again witnessed the largest year-on-year increase
(after 17 per cent one year earlier). The fully cellular
container fleet grew by 8.7 per cent (TEU). Both fleets
have almost doubled since 2005.
Newbuildings
About 110 million dwt were reported as new orders
during 2011. The volume of orders placed has been falling
since 2007. With a volume of 344 million dwt at the start
of 2012, the world order book was 42% smaller than in
2008.
During 2011 more than 700 merchant vessel orders were
cancelled, i.e. removed from the order book. Though the
order book has shrunk in all segments, all sectors will see
large volumes of new tonnage in the short term. At the
beginning of 2012, the total order book still represents
around 24 per cent of existing fleet capacity. Especially in
the bulk carrier segment we see an oversized order book
(32 per cent of the existing fleet). With view to other ship
types, these shares stood at 26 per cent for container
ships, 15 per cent for tankers and 13 per cent for general
cargo vessels.
In 2011, Chinese, Korean and Japanese yards accounted
for close to 95% of world deliveries, Chinese shipbuilders
delivering over 1,000 vessels for the second year in a row
the largest ever by one nation in a single year.
Demolition market
Since the beginning of the economic crisis, ship breaking
experienced a revival. After 33 million dwt in 2009 and 29
million dwt in 2010, the volume of the reported broken-up
tonnage reached a peak with nearly 41 million dwt in 2011.
It was the third highest demolition level ever (1,516
merchant vessels). Compared to 2010, bulk carrier
Fig. 1: World merchant fleet Annual tonnage changes 1999
2012 (dwt- per cent)


Fig. 2: World tonnage additions and reductions 1998-2011 (in dwt)

Fig. 3: World merchant fleet Age structure by major ship types
as of January 1
st
, 2012 (No. of ships per-cent share)

Tab. 1: World merchant fleet by ship type as of January 1
st
, 2008
and 2012


Sources
If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures
concerning the world merchant fleet, special ship type features and
order book information is ISL based on HIS Fairplay, please quote
accordingly. If not indicated otherwise, merchant fleet data refer to
ships of 300 gt and over.

0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1.0
1.5
2.2
2.7
2.1
2.9
5.7
6.4
6.9 6.9
6.8
7.1
9.3
8.4
d
w
t

%
-
c
h
a
n
g
e
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
m
i
l
l

d
w
t
Additions Reductions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Tankers Bulk
carriers
Container
ships
General
cargo
Passenger
ships
%
-
s
h
a
r
e

(
N
o
.

o
f

s
h
i
p
s
)
up to 1991 1992- 2001 2002-2006 2007-2011
No of
2012 2008 2012 ships dwt TEU 2008 2012
Tankers 547.4 40.7 37.4 3.2 5.7 ... 16.7 14.5
- Oil tankers 496.7 37.1 34.0 4.1 5.6 ... 16.5 14.0
- Chemical tankers 6.3 1.0 0.4 -4.0 -9.4 ... 19.2 20.0
- Liquid gas tankers 44.5 2.7 3.0 4.4 10.2 ... 15.8 14.2
Bulk/OBO carriers 605.8 36.0 41.4 7.1 11.9 -5.3 16.0 12.4
- Bulk carriers 601.9 35.4 41.2 7.2 12.0 -4.5 15.9 12.3
- OBO carriers 3.9 0.6 0.3 -6.1 -2.5 ... 21.8 23.7
Container ships 196.9 12.7 13.5 4.1 8.0 9.2 10.6 10.4
General cargo ships 105.3 9.9 7.2 -1.2 0.6 1.4 22.4 21.2
- Single-deck ships 60.6 4.8 4.1 0.6 4.2 6.4 20.9 19.6
- Multi-deck ships 15.7 2.5 1.1 -7.9 -10.2 -7.5 28.8 30.0
- Reefer ships 5.7 0.7 0.4 -3.5 -3.9 0.0 22.8 24.7
- Special ships 17.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 5.2 1.9 19.0 16.3
- RoRo cargo ships 6.1 0.7 0.4 0.9 -2.0 -5.0 19.4 18.0
6.4 0.6 0.4 -0.4 0.8 -5.5 23.0 22.9
- Pure passenger ships 2.1 0.2 0.1 -3.0 0.1 -45.4 21.3 21.5
- Other passenger ships 4.3 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.2 -3.9 23.9 23.8
Total 1461.8 100.0 100.0 2.0 7.9 7.9 18.9 16.7
Average
age (years)
Passenger ships
Ship type
dwt-%
share of
total
Av. yearly growth
2008-2012 (%)
mill
dwt
Comment - World merchant fleet
SSMR January/February 2012
6
www.isl.org
demolition has increased fourfold to 24.4 million dwt. Bulk
carriers represented 60 per cent of the total broken-up
tonnage in 2011.
1.1 Size development
The average size of bulk carriers, container ships, cruise
vessels and to a lesser extent tankers has been
increasing steadily during the last few years (see Figure 4).
A total of 105 VLCC tankers on order range in the size
class above 300,000 dwt. About one third of all tankers on
order are in size classes above 80,000 dwt against 19 per
cent in the current fleet.
The focus of the order activity in the bulk carrier segment
has been on Capesize vessels (>85.000 dwt). The current
order book includes 516 bulk carriers of 85,000 dwt and
above, the average size of all bulk carriers on order is
82,000 dwt against 64,000 dwt in the active fleet.
The average size of container ships has more than
doubled in 20 years. The average size increased from
1,250 TEU (1990) to 3,064 TEU at the beginning of 2012.
In the current order book, cellular container ships have an
average size of 6,900 TEU. At the start of 2012, 111
container ships in service had capacities of 10,000 TEU
and above against 165 container ships on order in this size
class. Meanwhile, Maersk Line has ordered 20 container
ships in a new size class, each able to transport 18,000
TEU.
Cruise vessels also tend to larger sizes. The average size
for cruise vessels on order is 100,000 gt. There are now 47
ships in the world cruise fleet larger than 100,000 gt with
an average capacity of 3,700 berths.
1.2 Ownership patterns of the world merchant fleet
World merchant fleet by flag
The flag-related ownership analysis shows the increasing
concentration on open registry flags. At the beginning of
2012, 940 million dwt equal to 70 per cent of the total
merchant fleet tonnage were registered under foreign flags
mainly open registry flags.
Tonnage registered under the top ten open registry flags
totalled 809 million dwt. The leading open registry flag is
Panama with 320 million dwt (21.9 per cent of the world
tonnage), followed by Liberia with 183 million dwt (12.5
per cent) and the Marshall Islands with 116 million dwt
(7.9 per cent).
World merchant fleet by country of domicile of owner
The country-by-country analysis underlines that the world
shipping scene is controlled by a few shipping countries.
At the beginning of 2012, about 70 per cent of the total
deadweight tonnage of the world merchant fleet was
controlled by only ten countries (excl. tonnage for ships of
which the parent company is unknown).
Greece is still the leading shipping nation in terms of
deadweight tonnage with a controlled tonnage of 217
million dwt (16.4 per cent) followed by Japan with 210
million dwt (15.8 per cent) and Germany with 125 million
dwt (9.5 per cent). Greek ship owners increased their
tonnage on average by 5.4 per cent per year in the period
2008-2012. Within the top shipping nations, the highest
Fig. 4: World merchant fleet Ship size development of selected
ship types as of January 1
st
, 1990 2012 (average dwt)


Fig. 5: Total world merchant fleet by national and foreign registries
as of January 1
st
, 1995 2012 (dwt index 1995 = 100)


Fig. 6: Country groups controlled fleets share on ship types of the
world merchant fleet as of January 1
st
, 2012 (dwt-%-share)


Fig. 7: Controlled fleet development of major shipping nations as
of January 1
st
, 2008-2012


Additions/reductions:
Additions (newbuildings) and reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to
the fleet data of the respective year.
Single shipping markets:
In-depth analyses will be presented in the next SSMR issues, namely in
No 2 (Tanker fleet), No 3 (Bulk fleet), No 5/6 (General cargo and
container shipping) and No 7 (Passenger/Cruise fleet)
Explanatory note
Country of domicile indicating where the controlling interest of the
fleet is located in terms of the parent company. This information is only
available for merchant ships of 1,000 gt and over. As of January 1
st
,
2012, the country of domicile information was attributable to 33,373
merchant ships with a total tonnage of 1.33 billion dwt, whereas for
5,751 ships with 126.0 mill dwt this information was unknown.
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
s
h
i
p

s
i
z
e

(
a
v
.

d
w
t
)
Oil tankers Bulk carriers Container ships
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
National flag Foreign flag
217.1
209.8
125.5
115.6
54.5
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5
m
i
l
l

d
w
t
average annual dwt growth in %
Germany
China, PR of
Korea, Rep.of
Japan Greece
Comment - World merchant fleet
SSMR January/February 2012
7
www.isl.org
tonnage growth in this period was reached by Korea (10.4
per cent), the UK (11.3 per cent) and China (8.6 per cent).
2 MARKET FUNDAMENTALS IN 2010/2011
2.1 World seaborne trade
From a total of 8.8 billion tonnes of seaborne trade in 2011,
about 35.0 per cent are attributable to liquid bulks. Due to
the low growth of global oil trade compared with other
commodities and due to increasing pipeline transport
volumes, this share decreased from 40 per cent in 1990 to
the current value. As the growing supply of dry bulk
tonnage suggests, the share of major dry bulk volumes still
increases. In 2011, 28.0 per cent of the total seaborne trade
were attributable to iron ore, coal and grain. According to
Clarkson Research, containerised cargo had a share of 17
per cent in total seaborne trade in 2011.
During the course of 2011, especially the increase of
container trade (+9.7 per cent), Bauxite (+8.9 per cent) and
the group of minor bulks (+ 4.9 per cent), which includes
the so-called noble earths, reveal the economic recovery.
Crude oil and products shipments increased by 2.4 per cent,
and 3.0 per cent respectively between 2010 and 2011.
During the same period, LNG-transport by sea increased by
only 1.3 per cent (see also table 3.1 Seaborne Trade on page
36).
2.2 Rates and prices
Ship owners nowadays have to pay the price for the vast
ordering activities of the past five years. Deliveries to the
active fleet with a combined capacity of 165 million dwt
have set rates under an enormous pressure (see table 1.1 on
page 16). As a consequence, ship builders will probably not
be able to sustain the relatively stable prices they were
earning so far.
In this regard the tendency to order bigger vessels widens
the gap between supply and demand not only in the bulk
and container market, but also in the tanker market (see
Table 4 above).
Tanker market
Compared to bulk and container markets, the tanker sector
was particularly struck by the ongoing conflicts in Northern
Africa in 2011. Moreover, rates weakened significantly
primarily due to an oversupply of vessels relative to
demand. Additionally, the release of some 60 million barrels
of crude oil from several governmental stockpiles and some
oilfield outages impeded the tanker demand during the last
twelve month.
All in all, it can be stated that the bigger the tanker, the
sharper the dip of the charter rates. Since the ridge of the
rate levels in early 2010, tanker spot World Scales (WS) on
the Arabian Gulf to Europe trade, for example, are nearly
20 per cent lower on average than in 2010. The Average WS
for VLCC tankers was around 38 versus WS 49.2 in 2010,
with peaks during winter times. Consequently, the main
market for oil shipments is still weak.
Bulk carrier market
It is obvious that the bulk sector still has difficulties to
absorb the armada of new ships ordered in the pre-crisis
era. This sets the rate development under high pressure.
Fig. 8: Share of selected commodity groups on world seaborne
trade in 2011 and 1990 (% of total volume)

Fig. 9: Monthly development of Baltic indices 2007-2012

ISL Bremen 2012; based on Baltic Exchange

Fig. 10: Time charter rates for tankers 2007 - 2012

ISL Bremen 2012; based on Fearnleys Weekly

Fig. 11: Monthly HARPEX Container charter rate index up to
December 2012

ISL Bremen 2012; based on Harper Petersen & Co., Hamburg

Fig. 12: Share of the ordered tonnage on the existing merchant fleets
by type as of January 1
st
, 2007-2012 (dwt-%)





Major dry
bulks
28%
Minor
bulks
11%
Container
17%
Liquid
bulk
35%
Others
9%
2011
Major dry
bulks
23%
Minor
bulks
16%
Container
6%
Liquid
bulk
40%
Others
15%
1990
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Baltic Dry Index
Baltic Panmax Index
Baltic Capesize Index
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1
0
0
0

U
S

$
/
d
a
y
VLCC (modern)
SUEZMAX (modern)
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
Jan. 07 Jul Jan. 08 Jul Jan. 09 Jul Jan. 10 Jul Jan. 11 Jul Jan. 12
H
A
R
P
E
X

I
n
d
e
x
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Tanker Bulk carrier Container General Cargo
40.4
24.7
42.1
12.5
28.9
60.4
32.8
19.3
15.2
32.3
26.0
13.0
d
w
t

-
%

s
h
a
r
e

o
f

o
r
d
e
r
b
o
o
k

o
n

f
l
e
e
t

Comment - World merchant fleet
SSMR January/February 2012
8
www.isl.org
Consequently, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), during 2010 on
the way up, fell to ranges of around 1400, not far away from
the low point at the end of 2008, but picked up 40 per cent
up to 1900 points at the turn of the year. This upswing was
mostly limited to the Capesize class while the Panamax
sector stagnated.
On the demand side, heavy rain and floods in Australia
severely disrupted coal and iron ore trade in early 2011.
Weather conditions are again expected to hit the dry bulk
trades in 2012. As a result of La Nina, the US Gulf is
expected to experience significant drought in first quarter
2012, affecting grain exports.
Container charter rates
Until mid-2011, the charter rates have benefited from the
market recovery. In the second half the rates have fallen
back to the level of mid-2009. The large number of
additions to the fleet in the upper size segment has
accelerated the cascade effect, creating pressure on rates in
all size segments and crowding out smaller units. At the
same time, the slowdown of growth in many industrialised
countries led to a deceleration of demand for capacity.
At the end of 2011, the downward trend in charter rates of
recent months continued. An annual comparison shows
that the low rates now varied between one and two thirds of
the previous years figures. Howe Robinson published a
level of around 476 points for the weighted container index
(HRCI) at the end of December 2011, a decrease of 30.7
per cent compared to December 2010.
Demolition and newbuilding prices
As stated above, it is not unlikely that newbuilding prices
may weaken as yards have to fill their order books in
times of observant markets. At the turn of the year, the
values for all ship types move marginally down. Bulk
carrier newbuilding prices, especially for larger vessels,
were around 2 per cent lower than at the end of 2010, of
course a reaction of the high amount of newbuildings.
Correspondingly the level of newbuilding prices was
relatively low. According to industry sources, namely
Fearnleys and Platou, the second hand values for tankers
were relatively low in the crude sector and more or less
stable regarding the products tankers.
3 FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY
The economic recovery since 2010 also revives global
shipbuilding. At least 2,042 merchant vessels with nearly
39 million cgt were reported as new orders during 2011.
However due to many deliveries and removals the
order book for merchant ships has decreased in all
segments. The global order book at the start of 2012
comprised 5,301 ships with 108 million cgt, 16.9 per cent
less than a year ago and 41.3 per cent less than five years
ago.
3.1 Tankers
During 2011 tanker deliveries consisted of 640 units with
44.4 million dwt, thereof 531 oil tankers and 74 liquid gas
tankers. In the same period 433 new orders with 18.1
million dwt were placed, 220 units were removed from the
order book, and 249 units with 9.0 million dwt were
reported to be broken up. At the beginning of 2012, 1,138
Fig. 13: Tanker fleet - quarterly development of new orders and
broken-up tonnage 2005 2011 (in dwt)

Fig. 14: Bulk fleet - quarterly development of new orders and broken-
up tonnage 2005 2011 (in dwt)


Fig. 15: General cargo fleet quarterly development of new orders
and broken-up tonnage, 2005 2011 (mill dwt)


Fig. 16: Container ships - quarterly development of new orders and
broken-up tonnage 2005 2011 (mill dwt)











5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III 10/I 10/III 11/I 11/III
m
i
l
l

d
w
t
Broken-up
New orders
20.0
10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III 10/I 10/III 11/I 11/III
m
i
l
l

d
w
t
Broken-up
New orders
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
05/IV 06/II 06/IV 07/II 07/IV 08/II 08/IV 09/II 09/IV 10/II 10/IV 11/II 11/IV
m
i
l
l

d
w
t
Broken-up
New orders
3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
05/IV 06/II 06/IV 07/II 07/IV 08/II 08/IV 09/II 09/IV 10/II 10/IV 11/II 11/IV
m
i
l
l

d
w
t
Broken-up
New orders
Comment - World merchant fleet
SSMR January/February 2012
9
www.isl.org
tankers with 25.2 million cgt (83 million dwt) were on
order. The total tanker order book corresponded to 15 per
cent of the total tanker fleet, compared with 24 per cent
one year earlier. More than half of this tonnage volume is
scheduled until end of 2012.
3.2 Bulk carriers
At the start of 2012, we still see a huge oversupply of
vessels in the bulk carrier segment. The future
supply/demand balance in the bulk market is determined
by a surprisingly high contracting of newbuildings: 941
new orders totalling 16.9 million cgt (68 million dwt) were
ordered. At the same time, 431 bulk carriers with 24
million dwt were reported as demolitions and more than
320 vessels were removed from the order book during
2011.
At the beginning of 2012, the order book for bulk carriers
comprised 2,397 carriers with 45.6 million cgt (195 million
dwt). This would increase the bulk carrier fleet by almost
one third in the years to come.
3.3 Container ships and General cargo vessels
In 2011, a total of 253 container ships with a combined
capacity of 1.8 million TEU were ordered worldwide, up
from 0.7 million TEU one year earlier. At the beginning of
2012 the order book for container ships comprised 631
ships with 23.3 million cgt (4.4 mill TEU). The container
ship order book at the beginning of 2012 represented a
TEU ratio of 28.5 per cent in relation to the existing
container fleet.
Based on the current order book the container fleet
capacity will increase by 10.2 per cent in 2012 and about 9
per cent in 2013 if ships are delivered as planned.
A noticeable 165 container ships on order had capacities
of 10,000 TEU and above, of which 134 ships with more
than 12,000 TEU.
New orders for general cargo ships (incl. various ship
types such as ro-ro cargo ships, car carriers or heavy-lift
vessels) amounted to 345 vessels with 2.7 million cgt (3.4
million dwt) in 2011, a decrease of 26.5 per cent
compared with 2010. The order book as of January 1
st
,
2012 comprised 1,004 general cargo ships with 10.2
million cgt and 13.7 million dwt, respectively. The general
cargo ship order book at the beginning of 2012
represented a dwt ratio of 13.0 per cent in relation to the
existing general cargo fleet.
3.4 Passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo vessels
During 2011, 105 passenger and ro-ro cargo/passenger
ships (1.3 million cgt) left the order book after completion,
while 70 new orders with 1.0 million cgt were reported.
As of January 1
st
, 2012, the total order book was composed
of 24 cruise vessels with 2.7 million cgt, 36 passenger ships
(0.02 mill cgt) and 71 passenger/ro-ro cargo ships with 0.7
million cgt. It includes 16 cruise vessels with capacities of
100,000 gt and over. Total passenger tonnage under
construction now represents 9.2 per cent of the fleet in
service (cgt), down from 10.2 per cent one year earlier.
Fig. 17: World order book - quarterly development by major ship
types 2007 - 2012 (mill cgt)


Tab. 2: Total order book by major ship types as of
January 1
st
, 2008, 2011 and 2012


Fig. 18: Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries
as of January 1
st
, 2012 (cgt - %)



Guide to relevant market information:
Shipping & Shipbuilding Market
Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com
Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:
www.brs-paris.com
Simpson Spence & Young: SSY World Oil-Tanker Trend:
www.ssyonline.com
Clarkson: Container Intelligence Monthly, Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook:
www.clarksons.co.uk
Statistical details World Shipbuilding
Ships on order by type p. 45
By major types and country of build p. 45
By type and major shipyards p. 46
By country of build and delivery schedule p. 47
By ship type and delivery schedule p. 47
Explanatory note
The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by
shipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working
Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate
measure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross
ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross
tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a
coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a
particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is
necessary to build a given ship.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Tanker Bulk carrier Container Others
07/I 07/I 07/I 07/I 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1
m
i
l
l

c
g
t
cgt-%
No of mill No of mill No of mill change
ships cgt ships cgt ships cgt '11/'12
Tankers 2935 63.7 1543 33.1 1138 25.2 -23.6
Bulk carriers 2790 54.0 2944 57.6 2397 45.6 -20.8
Container ships 1518 41.5 606 21.1 631 23.3 10.7
General cargo ships 1421 17.5 1295 14.4 1004 10.3 -29.0
Passenger ships 223 7.4 137 3.9 131 3.6 -6.8
Total 8887 184.0 6525 130.0 5301 108.0 -16.9
Ship type
2008 2012 2011
CESA
4.1%
China, PR of
38.2%
Kora, Rep. of
32.5%
Japan
15.5%
Others
9.8%
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