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Prepared by:
Dr Iraj Abedian: Group Economist
Mr Francis Antonie: Senior Economist
Standard Bank Group, Johannesburg, South Africa
TH
To be presented at CSAEs 4 Annual Conference, Development Policy in Africa: Public and Private
Perspectives, 30/31 March 2001, The Centre for the Study of African Economies in the
Department of Economics, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Introduction
One of the problems facing any discourse about business is a definitional one. This would be true for
business anywhere in the world. Issues such as its SMME status, the size in terms of market capitalization or
turnover or staff complement of the business concerned, its market share, its national, regional global reach,
etc., are important. Two issues are, however, peculiar to business history and practice in South Africa, which
further complicate the issue. The first concerns the particular periodisation of South Africa capitalism and the
extraordinary influence which mining capital played and continues to play in business practice, organization and
policy this notwithstanding the fact that more than 65% of South Africas GDP now comes from the tertiary
sector. The second relates to the persistence of race as the significant social indicator of ownership and control
of the economy. While black empowerment initiatives have made progress in terms of distribution of assets to
an ascendant elite, their status as redistributive vehicles is controversial. (See Appendix.)
Given the questions of size, history and race, business in South Africa is a contested category. This was
nowhere more clearly seen than in the T.R.C. hearings on business and apartheid where the relationship
between business and the state came under scrutiny. Suffice to say that even on this occasion it was difficult to
theorize about business as an identifiable category with a specific social agenda. (Simkins 1998; Antonie
1999.) Some commentators suggested that the most that could be said is that business lacks a coherent
strategy beyond profit maximization or returns to shareholders. (Bernstein 1998.)
2
The first feature noted was the shift in the composition of output (gross value
added) from goods to services (see graph 1). Goods here mean the products of the
primary and secondary sectors of the economy (agriculture, forestry and fishing,
mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water, construction) and
services refer to the output of the tertiary sector (wholesale and retail commerce,
catering and accommodation, transport, storage and communication, financial intermediation, insurance, real estate and business services, community, social and
G ra p h 1: C o n trib u tio n to g ro s s va lu e a d d e d
A verage of annual figures by decade (current prices)
P rim ary S ector
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 95 0 s'
1 96 0 s'
1 97 0 s'
1 98 0 s'
1 99 0 s'
1 99 9
S o urc e : S A R es erv e B an k
personal services).
calculation of gold mining output in real terms, standard figures report zero growth
for the primary sector as a whole during the 1990s (See table 1).
Table 1: Major sector growth rates decade average of annual growth rates in
real gross value added (1995 prices)
Period
Primary (%)
Secondary (%)
Tertiary (%)
Total (%)
1950s
5.6
5.8
3.7
4.8
1960s
3.7
8.2
5.2
5.4
1970s
0.1
5.0
4.0
3.2
1980s
0.9
1.4
3.0
2.1
1990s
0.0
0.4
1.9
1.2
Strong growth by the secondary sector during the first three decades after the
Second World War with average growth rates of at least 5% p.a. which reached
8% p.a. during the 1960s suggested the emergence of a new leading sector with
the potential to sustain high growth. This promise faded however: by the 1980s and
1990s average annual growth rate in this sector had fallen to 1,4% p.a. and 0,4%
p.a. and the sectoral share had fallen below its peak and was heading downwards.
Some of this decline probably relates to the opening of this relatively protected
sector to international competition.
sector relates to disadvantages of location (distance from major markets) and small
local-market size.
The most important aspect of the sectoral changes is the relative growth of the
tertiary sector. Its share of total value added averaged just under 50% in the 1950s,
stayed in that region though rising slightly for the next three decades, and then
5
by growing fast in the slow-growth decades increased its share substantially from
an average of 50,8% in the 1980s to 61,0% in the 1990s (heading to 65,5% by
1999). Most of this recent increase took place in two sub-sectors: (i) financial, real
estate and business services and (ii) community, social and personal services
which has general government as its main component.
recent and since it partly involves a change in the government share of activity
during a decade in which the private sector grew very slowly, it is perhaps
premature to make a lot of this shift, but unwise to ignore it.
The second structural change that research points to is the increased average skill
levels required by the economy and presumably to some extent supplied to it (see
Table 2 ). As noted earlier, the percentage of the labour force, which is classified
as skilled and highly skilled, has increased from 38% in 1970 to close to 57% in
1997/98, and the percentage who are unskilled has declined correspondingly. Of
course, it is unlikely that either these categories or the classifications made in terms
of them are uncontroversial, but the reported change is so substantial that it would
be naive to challenge it. Some industries or sub-sectors were more skill-intensive
than others in 1976 (when some of our data begins).
instance, services were (and are) more skill-intensive than the primary or secondary
sectors. The overall change to greater skill-intensity is the result of (1) increases in
the shares of the total labour force employed in more skill-intensive sectors or subsectors and (2) increases in the skill-intensities of most sub-sectors. The tertiary
sector expanded employment during 1976-1999 whereas both the primary and
secondary sectors (with their lower skill-intensities) experienced substantial
declines in their employment totals. At the same time the skill levels in these
declining employment sectors increased: 12,8% of mining workers were highly
skilled or skilled in 1970, whereas 19,5% were in 1997-98.
Table 2: Breakdown of skills based on Sector Education and Training Authority (SETA) categories
Note: For each given year the share of each of the three skill categories adds up to 100%. Shares can be added horizontally
but not vertically.
Total
Share of highly skilled (%)
Share of skilled (%)
Share of unskilled (%)
%
change
Broadly defined
19701997199719971970
1980
1970 1980
1970
1980
sectors
98
98
98
98
Primary sectors
Forest Industries
1.61
2.68
3.38
5.54
21.98
22.56
26.99
75.35
74.06
67.47
Mining
-0.46
1.46
1.77
4.13
11.33
12.06
15.43
87.21
87.17
80.44
Secondary sectors
Chemical Industries
1.29
6.38
9.78
18
24.27
27.81
34.29
69.34
62.41
47.74
Clothing, Textile,
0.65
2.11
2.24
4.52
12.01
13.65
14.7
85.88
84.12
80.78
Footwear and Leather
Manufacturing,
Engineering and
1.22
4.78
6.4
12.6
25.55
27.65
27.42
69.66
65.94
59.95
Related Services
Food and Beverages
Manufacturing
1.05
2.89
3.46
7.26
18.28
21.62
38.14
78.83
74.91
54.61
Industry
Construction
0.22
1.66
2.84
5.46
19.83
21.37
21.79
78.51
75.79
72.75
Education and
Training
Energy Sector
2.27
3.55
6.8
24.6
20.11
26.78
34.32
76.34
66.42
41.05
Tertiary sectors
Wholesale & Retail
1.1
7.53
11.4
14.5
55.54
56.6
60.72
36.93
32.01
24.76
Sector
Tourism and
0.66
4.76
7.2
9.18
69.61
70.93
76.09
25.63
21.87
14.73
Hospitality
Transport
-0.75
2.92
3.81
8.81
57.43
63.46
59.47
39.65
32.74
31.73
Information Systems,
Electronics and
1.76
18.42
25.7
12.53
51.94
43.59
65.38
29.63
30.17
22.1
Telecommunication
Technology
Banking, Financial
3.66
12.8
14.17
23.88
79.4
78.33
73.91
7.81
7.5
2.2
and Accounting
Insurance Sector
3.41
9.48
10.3
17.4
85.11
84.69
81.14
5.4
4.98
1.43
Services Sector
3.89
15.53
16.93
28.56
74.67
73.77
68.68
9.79
9.3
2.76
Local Government,
3.37
27.67
31.93
36.66
32.17
26.2
43.86
40.16
31.87
19.48
Water and related
Services
Health and Welfare
3.2
28.47
32.4
36.87
33.41
37.07
44.5
38.11
30.53
18.63
Media, Advertising,
Publishing, Printing
1.93
10.37
11.55
19.7
46.49
48.33
58.09
43.14
40.12
22.21
and Packaging
Personal care
-0.2
2.28
3.05
4.73
12.43
13.92
16.58
85.29
83.02
78.68
Sports, arts, culture
2.16
35.59
36.82
40.01
51.33
52.85
57.65
1.31
10.3
2.34
and entertainment
Diplomacy,
Intelligence, Defence
3.26
28.05
32.18
36.73
32.36
36.29
43.92
29.59
31.53
19.36
and Trade & Public
Service
Education, Training
and Development &
Police, Private
3.21
28.37
32.34
36.83
33.15
36.87
44.35
38.49
30.79
18.82
Security, legal and
Correctional Services
TOTAL
1.1
7.64
10.8
17.1
30.28
33.78
39.71
62.08
55.41
43.17
Source: Bhorat, H. (2000).
The third structural change is that behind both the sectoral shifts in output and
employment and the intra-sectoral changes in skill requirements are pervasive
changes of technology and the effects of increased integration into the world
economy. These in general require an increased use of capital goods embodying
the new technologies, and increased skills to work productively with the increasingly
sophisticated equipment. As mentioned earlier, these changes show up in
increases in the statistical series showing the amount of capital per workers in
various industries, and also in the output (or gross value added) per worker. Of
course these trends are not uniform across sectors and industries as graphs 2 and
3 indicate.
Graph 2: Index of capital/labour ratios (1976 = 100)
450
350
250
150
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Transport
Mining
Electricity
Wholesale & retail trade
Financial
250
200
150
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
50
76
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
50
2.1
What are the implications of these structural changes? Clearly, there are wide
ranging issues that a fundamental transformation of this nature brings about. While
an exhaustive discussion of these issues is beyond the scope of this paper, we
attempt to highlight some of the most important ones.
In the first place, the supply of skills of various types has lagged behind the demand
for them in recent decades and contributed to the slowing of economic growth that
we have experienced. Thus a major effort will be required from the society in the
field of education and training if we are in future to reverse the slow-growth trend of
recent decades. It also follows that immigration becomes a crucially important
source of skills. For some time policy has been responsible for creating obstacles
to such recruitment. The recent undertaking that this matter is soon to be reviewed
is encouraging, albeit long overdue.
A second implication is that if the economy continues to experience the kind of
structural change described, then for any given rate of growth of the labour force
(and it does not change rapidly under normal circumstances) the GDP will need to
grow faster to absorb the annual supply of new work-seekers on the assumption
that they will increasingly have the requisite skills.
A third implication is that the impact of technological change and development will
constitute a defining feature of the rate of growth of the South African economy.
This, in turn, will influence the nature and the extent of our participation in the global
economy; in short it could determine the level of our integration or the level of our
marginalisation.
Last, but by no means least, economic governance is substantially influenced by
economic structure. We submit that a tertiary sector economy is far more
leadership-intensive than otherwise.
Nattrass (1998) argues that business acts collectively for a variety of different
reasons. She quotes Windmuller (1984:1) to the effect that business organizations
attempt to:
regulate matters of trade and competition by mutual agreement; to seek statutory
protection in matters of trade, particularly with regard to imported goods; to provide
services in labour relations and personnel administration; and to contest the
passage of social and labour legislation.
What
is
apparent
about
South
African
business
organizations
is
that,
initiatives.
Recent
hesitant
steps
to
integrate
black
and
present in South Africa where employers associations are fragmented by sector (in
keeping with industrial level collective bargaining) and trade associations which are
fragmented by region, sector, language and race. Our focus in this paper will be on
the trade associations for two reasons: one historical, the other political.
The current dispensation of business associations can be traced back to 1958
when ten key employers and trade associations constituted an umbrella body called
the South African Consultative Committee on Labour Affairs (SACCOLA). Given its
limited support base, lack of mandating procedures, its focus on international public
affairs, and crucially, its racial nature, SACCOLA could hardly represent or
articulate business interests, especially during the tumultuous years beginning with
the 1976 Soweto uprising. That watershed event led to the formation of the Urban
Foundation. Dekker (1995:45) has described this initiative as a courageous step
in that it was a qualitative move beyond social responsibility programmes which
up to then had been criticized by those employers who felt business should not
become involved in social issues.
Likewise, the emergence in 1988 of the Consultative Business Movement (CBM)
was a response to the growing legitimacy crisis within South Africa. Again, the
objective of the CBM was to alert business of the growing crisis in both the
economy and wider society which the introduction of a tri-cameral parliament
which effectively and permanently excluded Africans from the central political
process had brought about.
11
This crisis only began to be resolved after the unbanning of the proscribed
organizations in 1991. In 1992, under the auspices of the Norwegian government,
SACCOLA and two black business associations, the Foundation for African
Business and Consumer Services (FABCOS) and the National African Federated
Chambers of Commerce (NAFCOC), agreed to work together to establish a
representative structure, the FNS. This initiative in turn gave way to the tripartite
National Economic Forum (NEF) and the business caucus, including FNS
representatives, believed that the time was ripe for a national business grouping,
Business South Africa (BSA), which would encompass both black and white
organizations including the Afrikaner-based Afrikaanse Handelsinstituut (AHI).
By 1984 BSA represented South African business at the International Organization
of Employers, and subsequently in 1995 was the principal business representative
at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC), the
successor to the NEF. NAFCOC in the meantime had withdrawn from BSA and
currently represents its own members at NEDLAC. Attempts to integrate with the
South African Chamber of Business (SACOB), an affiliate of BSA, are currently
underway.
This brief historical overview of South African business organizations suggests that
the organizations emerged in response to particular social and political crises in our
recent history and that their concerns were focused on finding a satisfactory modus
operandi with the changing patterns of political and social developments within
South African society.
While no doubt these developments were also the consequences of shifts, often
undetected by business, or changes in economic trends, it appears that business
organizations have by and large failed to consider these changes and to address
them in a coherent and strategic fashion. This is in part understandable, given the
nature of the social turmoil that was unleashed after 1976. Nevertheless, changes
in the South African economy which began to emerge long before 1976, coupled
with South Africas more recent integration into the global economy, make it
12
It is evident that globalization has not only changed the environment for doing
business in South Africa, but also exposed quite dramatically the inherent fault-lines
in business organizations in the country. Some ad hoc initiatives have been
introduced to address some of the obvious problems. The launch of the Business
Trust in 1999 by the South Africa Foundation was, in itself, an explicit recognition of
the human capital deficit, which is part and parcel of the apartheid legacy. (The
Trust seeks in part to address the skills and education crisis and, in part, to create
employment opportunities in the tourism sector). Nevertheless, it would be true to
say that the current defining features of the business associations generally
resemble those, which dominated business pre-1994. In this regard, much remains
to be done. Given the speed of economic integration globally, the pace of reform of
business organizations leaves much to be desired. To the extent that business
organizations are controlled by vested interests, and to the extent that these may
thwart structural and organizational changes, is a challenge which business
organization must face up to.
Meanwhile, government
This institutional
Offe (1985:190) has suggested that most of the central life interests of capital are
either resolved beneath the level of association (within the individual firm) or above
the level of association (within the state apparatus).
While this thesis has the immediate and beguiling appeal which most
instrumentalist arguments concerning the relationship between state and capital
have, in a globalizing world it becomes necessary (paradoxically) to develop a
national capability so as to complement the capacity of the state in ongoing,
increasingly more complex trade and industrial relations.
Contrary to common
The history of business associations in South Africa strongly suggests that they
react to situations only after they develop into crises. The current challenge is to
14
persuade them and the social partners to be proactive in engaging with the global
economy. This would enable business to flourish, and its enormous capacity to be
fully utilized in the service of sustainable growth and development for the broader
society.
- End -
15
Appendix
Business Map (March 2001) calculates that for the year ended February 2001,
black companies accounted for 4.9 per cent of the JSEs total market capitalization.
For a discussion of changing racial patterns of income distribution see Pienaar
(2000), and van Wyk (2001).
No of firms
Market cap bn
JSE %
Sep 95
11
4.6
Feb 96
12
7.5
1.5
June 96
13
7.1
1.2
Sep 96
13
10.6
Jan 97
17
26.4
2.9
Apr 97
18
33.4
2.9
July 97
18
38
Oct 97
17
37
Nov 97
26
52
Feb 98
27
55
4.8
July 98
28
68
5.6
Sep 98
28
48
Nov 98
33
66
6.8
Jan 99
35
59
5.5
Apr 99
35
67
Aug 99
38
53
4.2
Nov 99
36
42
3.1
Feb 00
36
61
3.8
May 00
32
37
2.7
Aug 00
33
98
5.9
Nov 00
34
78
5.2
Feb 01
33
73
4.9
16
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17