time June 2, 2014 00

K
E
V
I
N

F
R
A
Y
E
R

G
E
T
T
Y

I
M
A
G
E
S
ften fiery and
intermittently
reasonable,
sometimes banal
but occasionally
innovative, Narendra Modis
statements on foreign policy
over the past few years have
been so meager and uneven
that they cannot readily serve
as a guide for how he will act
as Indias Prime Minister.
Wonks call him a realist.
Political admirers and critics
both say hes hard-line. But
the specics of what he might
do in ofce are unclear.
In the past, Modi has be-
rated the Manmohan Singh
government for being weak
in its dealings with Pakistan
and China, two of Indias most
important neighbors. Dur-
ing the election campaign,
however, he was careful not
to paint himself into a corner.
In his rst major foreign
policy speech, he gave pride
of place to a corny slogan
Terrorism divides, tourism
unitesbut also showed a
capacity for out-of-the-box
thinking, saying India should
convene a global summit
with countries interested in
developing solar power as a
major source of future energy.
While there is likely to be
continuity in many aspects
of Indias foreign policyits
stand on major international
issues, its bilateral and multi-
lateral partnershipsModis
tenure will be dened by
how he responds to four
specic challenges.
The rst is economic, where
everything depends on his
ability to boost growth. Besides
strengthening Indias econom-
ic partnerships with the U.S.,
Europe and Asia, a stronger
economy will give the country
the heft it needs to play a larger
role on the world stage.
Politically, the big chal-
lenge for Modi will be to
move away from his Bharati-
ya Janata Partys rhetoric of
Hindu nationalism and
nd ways of forging closer
ties with Indias two Islamic
neighbors, Bangladesh and
Pakistan. In opposition, the
BJP attacked Singh for his ini-
tiatives on this front. During
the campaign, Modi played
on the sentiment of Hindus
living near Bangladesh, de-
scribing Muslim migrants as
inltrators out to destroy
India. The reality is more
complex. While there are
large numbers of Bangladeshi
migrants in India, many Indi-
ans work in Bangladesh and
send back nearly two-thirds
of the amount of money that
Bangladeshis in India trans-
mit out of the country every
year, according to the World
Bank. Closer ties with Dhaka,
and Islamabad, are clearly in
New Delhis interest. Inviting
neighboring leaders, includ-
ing Pakistans Nawaz Sharif,
to his inauguration is a good
rst step by Modi.
On the strategic front,
the shifting geopolitics of
the wider Asian region will
present Modi with difcult
choices. His instincts may lead
him to seek closer ties with a
more assertive Japan and a U.S.
ofcially committed to the
Asia pivot. But the economic
pragmatist in him will be
wary of fanning Chinese fears
about encirclement. As chief
minister of Gujarat, Modi vis-
ited China several times, and
Chinas President Xi Jinping is
due to visit New Delhi in the
fall. The Shinzo Abe govern-
ment is keen for Modi to visit
Tokyo before that, and the new
PM will meet with President
Barack Obama in New York
City in September. Striking
a balance between the three
will require great dexterity.
When it comes to Wash-
ington, much has been made
of the denial of a U.S. visa to
Modi when he was chief min-
ister. In campaign interviews,
the Prime Ministerelect
chose to strike a philosophical
tone, saying one should look
forward and not back. And
although the chances that
Modi and Obama will hit it off
are close to zero, both leaders
know the stakes are too high
to let feelings come in the way.
The greatestand most
immediateforeign policy
challenge for Modi is likely to
be on the crisis-management
front. What happens if
Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda or
other Pakistan-based terrorist
outts stage an attack against
India? Modi would come un-
der enormous pressure from
his partys rank and le to
react in a muscular manner,
though the countrys diplo-
matic and security establish-
ment is likely to drive home
the absence of any neat mili-
tary options. A crisis may also
come up on the Chinese side if
there is a repeat of the kind of
intrusions Chinese military
patrols have engaged in along
the yet-to-be-settled inter-
national boundary between
the two countries. Vague as
Modis positions have been
thus far, he will have to get
very specic, very quickly. n
Varadarajan is a senior fellow at
the Center for Public Affairs and
Critical Theory at New Delhis
Shiv Nadar University
Modi and the World
A crisis could force the hand of Indias new
leader as he navigates Asias shifing geopolitics
VIEWPOINT
Siddharth Varadarajan
O
Looking out A Modi supporter takes a picture of a map of India
bearing the image of the countrys next Prime Minister