Assessing the sustainability of harvest of Pterocarpus angolensis
in Rukwa Region, Tanzania
M.W. Schwartz a,* , T.M. Caro b , T. Banda-Sakala c a Division of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA b Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA c Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Received 5 July 2001 Abstract Pterocarpus angolensis is being cut for construction and medicinal purposes through much of southern Africa. To assess the sustainability of this offtake, we estimated current harvest practice, population size structure, growth rates and seed production in protected and unprotected areas of Rukwa Region, western Tanzania. Results showed that adult P. angolensis are being removed very rapidly given its slow growth rate as determined from tree ring data, and that regeneration both inside and outside the protected area is very low. A simple model indicates that current harvest is unsustainable raising serious concerns about the long-term viability of this important hardwood species in miombo woodland. # 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Katavi National Park; Miombo; Pterocarpus angolensis; Tree harvest 1. Introduction African miombo is a dominant vegetation type over much of south central Africa. It covers 2.7 million km 2 (Millington et al., 1986) extending from Tanzania and southern Zaire in the north to the northern provinces of South Africa, and across the continent from Angola through Zambia to Malawi and Mozambique (Chidu- mayo, 1994). Over most of its range, mature undis- turbed miombo is deciduous woodland, i.e. classied with savanna ecosystems but grades into seasonal closed dry forest (Frost, 1996). Miombo woodlands are characteristically dominated by the genera Brachystegia, Isoberlinia and Julbernadia, all of the family Leguminosae (Chidumayo, 1994). One of these hardwood tree species, Pterocarpus angolensis, is a commercially important canopy tree that grows from sea level in the Mozambican coast, up to 1650 m above sea level (Jeffers and Boaler, 1966; Stahle et al., 1999). In Tanzania, P. angolenesis wood is widely utilized for furniture, veneer, carving and general purpose timber (Monela et al., 1993). In South Africa, the sap is used traditionally for treatment of ringworms and ulcers (Van der Reit et al., 1998), eye treatment against cataracts, malaria, blackwater fever and skin inammation (Palgrave, 1981; Watt and Breyer-Brandwijk, 1962), and urinary schistosomiasis (Ndamba et al., 1994; Nyazema et al., 1994). Van Daalen (1991a) observed that P. angolensis regenerated sparsely in South Africa, while Boaler (1966) estimated that only 2% of fruits produced by this species germinated in the eld in Tanzania. With Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 * Corresponding author. Tel.: 1-530-752-0671; fax: 1-530-752-3350. E-mail address: mwschwartz@ucdavis.edu (M.W. Schwartz). 0378-1127/02/$ see front matter # 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S0 3 7 8 - 1 1 2 7 ( 0 1 ) 0 0 7 7 4 - 5 observations of low recruitment success, the growing stock of P. angolensis may be diminishing across its distribution naturally. The growing stock is further diminishing as logging pressure increases in an attempt to satisfy an expanding market demand. Documentation of cubic meters of wood volume harvested is lacking, making it difcult to assess the extent of the problem. However, the mining industry has used timber and poles in Zambia (Chidumayo, 1993), and between 1937 and 1961 about 127,000 ha of miombo were selectively harvested for these purposes (Lees, 1962). In South Africa, a partial estimate that does not include local timber use, values P. angolensis harvest at over R5 million ($646,663) (Van Daalen, 1991a). There are currently no data for Tanzania. In this paper, we survey populations of P. angolensis inside and outside a protected area in western Tanza- nia to predict the future population status for P. angolensis in this location under current management practices. We believe that this example is a good test case of the likely outcome of logging since the meth- ods of logging are inefcient and utilize little modern technology. Trees are hand cut, rolled to sawpits, sawn into logs and then removed by truck to a train depot more 50 km distant. If under these labor intensive logging practices, loggers can selectively cut P. ango- lensis to economic extinction, then we presume this to be the case wherever transportation corridors are available. Specically, our goal is to estimate current harvest patterns, population size structure, growth rates, and seed production in our study site in order to construct a model with which to predict future stand population under current harvest regimes. 2. Methods 2.1. The study site The study site was in and immediately south of Katavi National Park (KNP), latitude 6845 0 7805 0 S, longitude 30845 0 31825 0 E at the north end of Rukwa Valley in Rukwa Region, western Tanzania. The area is low elevation characterized by sandy soils and 600 1500 mm rainfall per year that falls between Novem- ber and April. The study site consisted of two legally designated areas (Fig. 1). KNP consists largely of miombo woodland, a dry deciduous forest character- ized by Acacia, Combretum, Grewia, Kigelia, Pter- ocarpus and Terminalia tree species (Rodgers, 1996) but also encompasses two seasonally inundated ood- plains, Lakes Katavi and Chada (Caro, 1999a). No temporary or permanent settlements are allowed aside from Park headquarters and two outlying ranger posts; no livestock, beekeeping, hunting, shing or timber extractions are tolerated. Tanzania National Park ran- gers conducting vehicle and foot patrols enforce these laws. The second area, Msaginia Forest Reserve (MFR), adjacent and north east of the Park, supports miombo woodland and is dominated by mixed stands of Bra- chystegia spiciformis, B. boehmii, Afzelia quanzensis, P. angolensis and Erythrophleum africanum. Settle- ments and cattle grazing are forbidden in the Forest Reserve but selective harvest of P. angolensis is carried out under license. In practice, most tree cutters spend months in the Forest Reserve and illegally hunt mammals there. The study was conducted in August and September 2000 during the middle of the dry season. 2.2. Demographic estimates 2.2.1. Population density and size structure In 50 m20 m (0.1 ha) plots, we recorded the identity of all individual trees at 14 sites in KNP and ve in MFR. In each plot, we measured the exact diameter at breast height (dbh) of trees >2 cm dbh. Separately, tree density estimates of P. angolensis in MFR were estimated by walking three transects 1 km in length and counting all live trees and cut stumps 25 m on either side of the observer (15 ha sampled). The distribution of live and harvested P. angolensis tree sizes in MFR were characterized by measuring all trees N 87 encountered on sampling transects conducted in the vicinity of on-going tree harvest. Size was measured as dbh for all live trees; for cut trees we measured the basal diameter, given that dbh did not exist. These trees do not strongly buttress, however, and basal diameter is only slightly larger than dbh measurements. The size structure of trees in KNP was measured from trees encountered in vegeta- tion sampling plots as well as trees outside of plots that were sampled in order to characterize seed production by tree size. 260 M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 2.2.2. Seed production Two researchers counted ground and canopy diaspores for each P. angolensis tree. Diaspores are large (1015 cm diameter) and readily visible by their prominent circular wing that contains a single central seed. Diaspores were counted during the dry season when the canopy was leaess, making visibility very high, and before most had dispersed from trees. Bare ground during the dry season made counting diaspores that had fallen relatively easy. Despite a large wing, most diaspores fall within 15 m of the parent tree so we restricted our estimates to isolated trees so as to reduce confusion with diaspores dispersed from neighboring individuals. Despite these favorable attributes, our estimates must be considered minimal estimates of total seed production. For each tree, we used the maximum value of diaspores counted on the ground summed with the average value of diaspores counted in the canopy. Our rationale for this is that all canopy diaspores were apparent and could be counted. Sources of error in canopy counts arise from uncertain numbers of diaspores held in clusters on branches. As a result, over-counting is possible. In contrast, diaspores on the ground are not easily over-counted. Fig. 1. Map of KNP and MFR showing the location of 14, 0.1 ha plots inside the Park and ve inside the Reserve (marked as squares). Legal boundaries are dotted lines, dirt roads are dashed lines. The town of Sitalike and villages of Mirumba, Manga and Kibaoni are also shown. Insert shows the location of KNP in Tanzania. M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 261 It is more likely that differences in ground counts arose from the different observers encountering patches missed by the other. 2.2.3. Tree growth rate The phenology of P. angolensis is strongly deciduous and is tightly synchronized with precipita- tion: owering and leaf ush occur during August December and leaves are shed in May and June. That leaf fall begins early and is more complete and prolonged than most other species affords P. ango- lensis one of the strongest deciduous habits of trees in the dry forests of south tropical Africa (Stahle et al., 1999); annual rings are present on P. angolensis, although they are often difcult to discern (Stahle et al., 1999). We wanted to gain a rough estimate of the time required for adult trees to pass fromone 5 cmsize class to the next in order to facilitate a prediction of the rate at which trees are currently being harvested to extinction. As such, we present a simple estimate of average ring width for trees in this region, but do not attempt a full reconstruction of size by growth patterns. Increment cores (5 mm) were collected from 10 adult trees, were mounted in wood, sanded smooth and measured with a binocular microscope. Average ring width values were used to estimate annual diameter increment growth. We compare these growth increments to published estimates of growth (Van Daalen, 1991b; Van Daalen et al., 1992; Stahle et al., 1999). 2.2.4. Tree harvest selection We interviewed loggers in Kiswahili in order to determine reasons for not cutting trees within size classes of trees otherwise cut (>25 cm dbh). Primary reasons given for not harvesting trees were bent trunks and hollow trunks such that boards could not be cut from the trunk. The larger a tree, the more likely it was to be harvested as larger trunks produced more boards per trunk. All boards were hand sawn in sawpits on location by the individuals who harvested the trees. 2.3. Modeling the consequences of logging To forecast the status of P. angolensis within the MFR, we constructed a matrix projection model to create scenarios for future forest stocking rates under different harvest scenarios. Our model uses 11 size classes of trees in 5 cmintervals from15 to 65 cmdbh, encompassing all size classes currently observed within MFR. Our model projects populations in time steps that correspond to the length of time it takes for a tree to pass from one 5 cm dbh size class to the next. We estimate that these time steps to be approximately 50 years (see Section 3). Population projections pre- sented here are deterministic and result in a single forecast of future population. It is notable that we observed no trees smaller than 15 cmdbh although it is possible that these trees existed as one of our eld recognition signs was seed in the canopy. While small trees, lacking seeds, might have been easy to overlook, the characteristic bark of P. angolensis made this relatively unlikely. The rst step of our model was to construct a stable stage distribution (SSD) of a hypothetical population. At SSD the proportion of individuals in each stage class is constant. To do this, we used 90% survivorship of adult trees per time step, roughly corresponding to estimated tree mortality rates for P. angolensis (Des- met et al., 1996) and typical of tree life table values (Harcombe, 1987). For fecundity, we used our empiri- cal estimate of the relative contributions of trees in different size classes to total seed production and set total seed production values to obtain a stable popula- tion size l 1 at SSD. When l 1, the population neither increases nor decreases in number. Projecting a population using values at SSD is deterministic and stationary. To project future populations, we modeled a popu- lation beginning at SSD. We then allow harvest of trees based on our observed probabilities of trees in different size classes being harvested. In other words, we reduced survivorship of adult trees making survi- vorship less likely with larger size, corresponding to observations of the sizes of cut and uncut stems. In this manner, the persistence likelihood of a small tree is very high, as few of these are cut, and the likelihood of persistence of a large tree is very low, as all of these that we observed had been felled. Like the previous model, this projection is deterministic, but now is not stationary. We compared the current size structure of the population to various time steps in the modeled population with harvest. We use two variations of this model to project future populations under logging scenarios. These models vary in their assumptions regarding logger behavior. In 262 M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 our rst harvest, model we use the distribution of cut and uncut trees within size classes as an estimate of the likelihood of a tree surviving into the next size class. In this model, the probability of tree mortality (harvest plus natural mortality factors) is xed for the entire projection (Table 1). In the second iteration, we allow loggers to change their behavior such that they begin harvest with the largest trees in the early time steps and decrease the size of harvestable trees as they deplete the larger size classes until they reach the pattern of timber harvest currently observed. Inter- views with loggers suggest that it is not feasible to cut trees much smaller than they do at the present time. Thus we xed logging behavior at current patterns and did not allow them to continue to harvest even smaller trees. In this sense, our model is conservative. Both of these models result in nearly the same projections, so we restrict our presentation to the conceptually sim- pler rst model of constant logger behavior cutting trees down to currently observed sizes. A third scenario, where loggers continue to return to the forest and harvest smaller and smaller trees results in a simple and rapid extinction of the species: the result is self-evident and does not require presentation. We project the size class distribution of trees using this model into the future assuming that a further decrease in harvestable tree size is impossible. We also present our forecast of tree population, along with a prediction of former population size based on tree densities. We used the most closely similar model time step to the current distribution of trees in the different size classes in order to estimate absolute tree density. Based on current stand density, we backtracked model time steps in order to estimate pre-logging tree den- sities. These represent very rough estimates of past tree density. We also projected future tree densities based on current stand densities. These latter stand density estimates are likely to be more robust. Table 1 Transition matrix models used to: (a) establish an SSD; (b) simulate harvest at a constant level a Size class (cm dbh) 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 (a) SSD, no population growth 15 0 0 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.22 20 0.9 0 25 0.9 0 30 0.9 0 35 0.9 0 40 0.9 0 45 0.9 0 50 0.9 0 55 0.9 0 60 0.9 0 65 0.9 0 (b) Constant harvest schedule 15 0 0 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.22 20 0.9 0 25 0.83 0 30 0.81 0 35 0.5 0 40 0.25 0 45 0.25 0 50 0.2 0 55 0.2 0 60 0.2 0 65 0.2 0 a In each case, the probability of remaining within a size class across time steps is 0, reecting a time step that is sufcient for trees to increase by 5 cm diameter increment. Adult survival is high in the absence of logging. Recruitment values are apportioned by actual seed production estimates and scaled so that the total population growth rate is 0 l 1:0. M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 263 3. Results 3.1. Current populations The distribution of P. angolensis sizes show that KNP trees are very much larger than cut or uncut trees in MFR (Fig. 2). We attribute this rst to the fact that selective logging in the Forest Reserve has been on- going for 30 years and that large trees in MFR have long since been felled. Second, the population within KNP has had virtually no P. angolensis recruitment for some period of time. As a result, there are virtually no small trees within the Park. Note, however, that it is not just small P. angolensis that are lacking in KNP: there are few small trees of any species in the Park compared to the MFR (Table 2). The distribution of size classes of cut and uncut P. angolensis trees in MFR demonstrates that loggers, as expected, are cutting the largest of the remaining P. angolensis. Nonetheless, the current round of selective logging results in loggers leaving some seed produ- cing trees. The tree density transects yielded a total count of 171 trees in 15 ha surveyed (11.4 trees/ha). Of these 171 trees, just 55 (32%) were alive, yielding an estimate of 3.67 live trees/ha at the present time. The relationship between tree size and seed production was highly signicant (seed production 22:576dbh 525:17; r 2 0:5935; p < 0:0001, Fig. 3). The majority of the error associated with this estimate is associated with large trees; small trees (<40 cm dbh) show considerably less variation in Fig. 2. Size class distribution of trees in the MFR and KNP, disting- uishing live and cut trees. Proportion of population, not density. Table 2 Estimated mean number of trees per hectare (standard deviation) by size class of all species within KNP (N 14 plots) compared to the MFR (N 5 plots) a Location Size class (cm dbh) 25 510 1025 >25 KNP 7.4 (7.8) 6.8 (7.3) 7.3 (7.4) 7.1 (4.6) MFR 20.8 (9.4) 34.2 (19.4) 26.0 (11.6) 6.4 (4.6) t-Value 1.94 1.84 2.13 0.11 p-Value 0.069 0.083 0.047 0.91 a Density estimates are based on trees sampled in 0.1 ha plots. Differences in density within size class were tested using a t-test. Fig. 3. The relationship between tree size and seed production for P. angolensis in and around KNP, Tanzania, y 22:576x 525:17; r 2 0:59; n 31; p < 0:001. The signicant positive relationship pertains with or without the inclusion of any or all of the three outlying points represented by the largest trees sampled in this population. 264 M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 seed production. The coefcient of variation in seed production for trees <40 cm dbh was 0.242, roughly half of that of the entire data set (0.475). Based on our tree density estimate of 3.67 live trees/ ha and the distribution of size classes (Fig. 2), we predict that the current forest produces 613 seeds/ha (Table 3). Current seed production is estimated to be 15.6% of the seeds that would have been produced by the trees currently represented in the forest as stumps (Table 2), and equivalent to that predicted from a single 50 cm dbh tree. Our observed mean tree ring width was 0.49 mm (Fig. 4). This estimated growth rate is slower than that of Stahle et al. (1999), resulting in a predicted residence time of approximately 50 years within each 5 cm size class. We use this estimate to calculate the rate at which remaining trees will reach harvestable size using our population model. 3.2. Population model Our population projection model allows us to accomplish three tasks. First, we compare the distri- bution of trees (live plus recently cut) to the distribu- tion of trees at SSD to assess the degree to which the model appears to capture current logging behavior. Second, we standardize SSD stand densities by the current densities in order to estimate pre-logging population size. Finally, we use additional time steps to estimate the trajectory of the future population of P. angolensis in our study region. By assuming that prior to the current bout of cutting in the area there was no anthropogenic loss of size classes 46 (3045 cm trees), we can standardize SSD densities in these size classes to equal observed den- sities (Fig. 5). Observations of recently cut stumps shows that current logging efforts are focused on the 3045 cm sized trees (Fig. 2). Most trees larger than 45 cm are already cut, thus the current population of trees and stumps contains far fewer large trees than the SSD predicts (Fig. 5). We expect this pattern, as we know larger trees have been extracted from the stand. We have no evidence that the population was at SSD prior to commencement of logging practices in the region in the 1970s; we simply chose this as starting point. Nonetheless, it is reassuring to the veracity of our model that the three size classes that are currently being cut t the distribution of densities that we expect based on SSD (Fig. 5). We observe fewer small trees in the current stand than in SSD(Fig. 5). The paucity of small trees may be Table 3 Total estimated annual seed production from remaining live trees within the MFR Size class (cm dbh) Live trees/ha Estimated seed production/tree Seeds/ha 1519.9 0.26 0 0 2024.9 0.84 10.5 8.8 2529.9 1.35 142.4 192.5 3034.9 0.90 274.2 247.1 3539.9 0.13 406.0 52.3 4044.9 0.13 537.8 69.3 4549.9 0.06 669.7 43.1 Total 613.1 Fig. 4. The distribution of tree ring widths in millimeter based on a sample of 302 tree rings measured from 10 trees (dbh 4767 cm) from KNP. M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 265 explained by one of two reasons. Harvest of large trees would dramatically reduce total stand seed production (Table 3) and hence is likely to be reducing recruit- ment. However, given that transition from one size class to the next requires up to 50 years, based on tree ring widths, we predict that all trees >15 cm dbh predate the onset of logging. Thus, we hypothesize that some secondary factor resulted in the reduction of recruitment in P. angolensis prior to the onset of logging in the past 30 years. Mechanism aside, these data suggest that recent recruitment in this forest falls far short of that required for a sustainable population. This observation is con- sistent with observations of tree recruitment immedi- ately under existing trees and paired stumps, which demonstrated no increased recruitment of any tree species as a result of logging (Schwartz and Caro, unpublished data). The simulation projection of constant logging efforts predicts a continued rapid decline of harvest- able trees (Fig. 6). Standardizing model size distribu- tions to current actual densities of live plus recently cut trees in the 3045 cm size classes, we predict that the density of trees >15 cm dbh at SSD was 27.8 trees/ ha. The logging model time step 4 predicts tree densities of 9.4 trees/ha, close to the current densities of live plus cut trees (11. 4 trees/ha). Model time step 6 predicts tree densities of 3.2 trees/ha; live tree density is currently estimated at 3.7 trees/ha. Most of the estimated 1.25 trees/ha large enough to cut at the present time were not cut because of bends and splits in trunks. Based on these results, we predict a total of 2.1 trees/ha maturing into a harvestable size class during the next 2 time steps (100 years), or approxi- mately 1 tree/ha each 50 years. Assuming continued patterns of harvest and recruitment, this would leave 0.3 trees/ha if these trees were logged during this time. Thus, the current stock of P. angolensis is nearly completely depleted for the foreseeable future in this stand. Fig. 5. A comparison of actual tree density estimates based on live plus recently cut tree stumps in MFR to an SSD model of a generalized tree model with high adult survivorship and a zero net population growth. Model results t tree size density distributions in size classes not readily cut very well, but show that recruitment lags behind that needed to restock the current population. Fig. 6. Model projections of the density of trees in the MFR assuming constant harvest pressure. Time steps are the time it requires for an individual tree to pass through a 5 cm size class. This was estimated to be 50 years. Dark shaded regions indicate the density of trees large enough to be harvested and light shaded region are trees in smaller size classes. 266 M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 4. Discussion Our simple measurements of P. angolensis in the Rukwa Region of western Tanzania have produced three main ndings. First, in the MFR, harvest inten- sity is leading to the rapid demise of P. angolensis and evidence strongly suggests that this harvest rate is unsustainable. Loggers have recently harvested a total of 7.7 trees/ha, reducing population density from 11.4 to 3.7 trees/ha. Trees are left standing because they are not of harvestable size yet. With slow growth rates and a potential of just 2.1 trees/ha maturing into harvest- able size over the next 100 years, we predict that there currently remains far less than 1 tree/ha to harvest. We cannot predict when economic extinction will occur within this system, but we can say that the population is heading toward economic extinction rapidly. At present, trees are harvested by cutting trunks with hand saws, then rolling them to saw pits and hand sawing theminto boards. Given the weight of trunks, it is not practical to roll a log long distances, nor dig a saw pit for every tree harvested. Our model suggests that P. angolensis may be commercially extinct when this current cutting cycle is completed, at least in the portion of the MFR where we conducted our study. At present, we can predict two scenarios. First, loggers will effectively harvest to economic extinc- tion, leave the area and thus allowthe species to persist at low density because it is not worth cutting an occasional single tree or trees that are hollow or unsuitable for harvest yet still produce seeds. Result- ing saplings have a chance of entering adult age classes in the absence of large herbivores. Alterna- tively, loggers may shift harvest practice to other sympatric species, such as Swartzia madagascarensis (pers obs), and cut P. angolensis opportunistically as encountered. The latter could result in complete extir- pation of P. angolensis. Discussions with loggers suggest that they believe that there is approximately 5 years to go before they will be forced to leave the area, but that there are insufcient Swartzia in the MFR to allow them to earn a living. Thus, if we had to speculate, we would suggest that the rst hypothesis is more likely. A second conclusion that emerges from this work is that populations of P. angolensis within KNP appear to be suffering from a lack of recruitment relative to populations outside the Park. As yet, we do not understand why this is but our working hypothesis is that large herbivores are preventing recruitment of P. angolensis and many other trees into the adult population. We reached this conclusion because we noticed, in a parallel study, that recruitment was rapid and vigorous outside the Park but very limited inside despite both the areas being similarly subject to repeated dry season res (Schwartz and Caro, unpublished data). In contrast to areas outside, KNP has signicantly greater densities of large ungulates including elephant, giraffe, zebra, and impala all of which browse regenerating trees (Caro, 1999b). Herbivores live at low densities outside the Park as a result of illegal hunting. In short, in an area of miombo legally protected from tree harvest, and where enforcement is diligent, there is an absence of recruitment into the adult P. angolensis population. In addition, there has not been compensatory recruit- ment of trees in logged areas that would allow for continued logging with increased canopy tree cycling, or for recovery of the P. angolensis. The literature suggests that P. angolensis might be characterized by bouts of recruitment (e.g., Chidumayo, 1994). Given that there is no seed dormancy, the potential to take advantage of the right conditions for recruitment is severely hindered by logging. A persistent seedling, known in the literature as a suffrutex (Boaler and Sciwale, 1966) provides the potential for advanced recruitment in the forest. If there is a large population of seedlings in the eld at present, these could form the next generation of canopy trees. Most areas we surveyed during the course of this study were burned, and all P. angolensis had lost their leaves during our study. As a result, we were not able to census seedlings during the dry season. Thus, we cannot comment on the role of seedlings for potential future recruitment in these stands at this juncture. At the very least, recruit- ment will be a slow process since few seed producing trees are available. In conclusion, we are concerned about loss of P. angolensis in this Forest Reserve and others under similar cutting pressure in the Rukwa Region of Tanzania. We acknowledge that these Forest Reserves provide a refuge for many forest resources at the expense of a few harvested species: were Forest Reserves not in place, many of the trees would already have been removed completely for rewood. Thus, the forest remains, at the expense of P. angolensis. We are M.W. Schwartz et al. / Forest Ecology and Management 170 (2002) 259269 267 also concerned that the species is being lost fromKNP. If it is a general phenomenon that P. angolensis cannot regenerate in areas of high ungulate biomass, then it is not safe within heavily protected National Parks in the miombo region of southern Africa. In short, lack of regeneration within heavily protected areas, unsus- tainable harvest in lightly protected areas, and whole- sale removal of forest in areas that enjoy no legal protection paint a very disturbing picture for this, and possibly other, hardwood species in this area of Africa. Our study area, in western Tanzania is an economically depressed region with little ability to rapidly exploit forest resources: there are no chain saws, few trucks and few loggers. If people here are able to cut a hardwood species to economic extinction, then we fear that hardwood populations are in jeopardy in this part of Africa. Efforts to grow P. angolensis commercially as a forestry species are underway in South Africa but face problems of low recruitment success and slow growth (Stahle et al., 1999; Munyanziza and Oldeman, 1995). To understand the impacts of logging on the global distribution of P. angolensis, additional information is required on the extent of forests under different levels of protection, regional differences in the methods and intensity of harvest, and the relationship between transportation corridors and harvest in the different countries within the species distribution. To under- stand better the population dynamics of P. angolensis within our particular study region, we need rst to census seedlings and estimate the likelihood of seedling recruitment into a juvenile tree. Second, we need to comprehend the role of re management and high herbivore densities on seedling recruitment within the National Park. Given that this is likely to be the sole refuge for these trees under intensifying logging pressure, experiments need to be conducted as to whether alternative re management regimes or herbivore exclosures may facilitate healthy recruit- ment within the Park. Acknowledgements We thank the Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute and Tanzania National Parks for permission to conduct research, the University of California Faculty Research Grant Program for funding, the people of Kibaoni for their hospitality, and two anonymous reviewers for thoughtful comments on an earlier draft. References Boaler, S.B., 1966. The ecology of Pterocarpus angolensis DC. in Tanzania. Ministry of Overseas Development, London. Over- seas Research and Publication No. 12, 128 pp. Boaler, S.B., Sciwale, K.C., 1966. Ecology of a miombo site, LupaNorth Forest Reserve, Tanzania. III. Effects on the vegetation of local cultivation practices. J. Ecol. 54, 577587. Caro, T.M., 1999a. 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