Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
By
Matthew R. Simmons
Chairman Emeritus
Simmons & Company International
We Have Come A Long Way
Since 1st ASPO
* Trust, but Verify was a signature phrase of Ronald Reagan. He used it in public,
although he was not the first person known to use it. When Reagan used this phrase, he
was usually discussing relations with the Soviet Union and he almost always presented it as
a translation of the Russian proverb "doveryai, no proveryai" (Russian: Доверяй, но
проверяй) - Trust, but Verify
Global Data Reform Would Be
Easy To Implement
■ G-20 leaders must demand
key field-by-field audits.
■ Enact transparency fines
(≈$20 - $40/Bbl for oil
F
pr ield
od -b
uc y f
imported into G-20 from tio ield
n
da
ta
non-transparent producers).
■ This would force producers
into transparency within
30 days or create an
enormous rainy day fund
within 24 – 36 months.
billions of barrels
■ Results are not perfect, but 300
250
enough for most juries to reach 200
a verdict when properly 150
presented.
Pre-1930s
100
1940s
1930s
1950s
1970s
1960s
1980s
1990s
50
0
■ ASPO has done a remarkable Worldwide Oil Discoveries by Decade
job of assembling the key dots
(by experts with no axe to
grind).
Here Are Some Key Data Points
1000
up by same nitrogen injection
will soon also collapse. 500
0
■ This will end Mexico‟s long
era as an oil exporter.
Too Many Other Key Oil-Producing
Countries In Irreversible Decline
■ List is long and too important to ignore:
1998 2003 2008 Est. 2009
--------------- MM B/D ---------------
Nigeria 2.11 2.15 1.95 N/A
Venezuela 3.12 2.36 2.35 N/A
United States 8.37 7.83 7.52 7.90
Mexico 3.50 3.79 3.16 2.94
United Kingdom 2.84 2.28 1.56 1.49
Norway 3.14 3.26 2.46 2.28
Australia 0.71 0.67 0.55 0.56
Indonesia 1.55 1.71 1.03 1.02
Argentina 0.90 0.83 0.75 0.74
Colombia 0.82 0.55 0.59 0.66
Oman 0.90 0.82 0.75 0.79
Yemen 0.40 0.45 0.31 0.27
Syria 0.57 0.53 0.39 0.36
Gabon 0.35 0.25 0.21 0.23
Egypt 0.87 0.71 0.65 0.63
Total 30.15 28.19 24.23 19.87
Items on my list:
– Iran‟s Twitter revolution finally shutting down oil system
– Nigeria‟s MEND morphs into civil war
– Venezuela‟s upheavals collapse PDVSA‟s oil flow
– Violence in Amazon jungles (Ecuador/USA tipping point)
– Terrorists finally strike oil system anywhere, particularly Abqaiq,
Straits of Malacca or entrance to Galveston Bay
The Enduring Risk List Is
Aging of Key Reservoirs
■ But, solid data argues that global gas flows have also
probably peaked:
– Western Siberian gas
– North Sea gas
– Indonesian gas All in irreversible decline
– Conventional U.S./Canadian gas
■ On October 6, 2009,
Exxon announced
agreement to purchase
24% of Ghana‟s Jubilee
oil field being developed
for $4 billion.
■ Production system
just beginning to be
built.
■ Projected peak oil is 120,000 b/d.
■ Exxon paid $200,000/peak barrel for a tiny extra supply.
Easy Oil And Gas Additions Died Years Ago
- 000 B/D -
2009 Khurais 1,200
Hawijah 300
IGD Habshan 270
■ None are easy.
Shaybah 250
2010 Hassi Messaoud EOR 200 ■ All might never
2011 Pazflor Block 17 200 reach full potential.
2012 None
2013 Egina 200
2014 Manifa 900
Kashagan 220
Most Recent Large Oil Field Additions
Failed To Make Target*
■ Number of start-up sizeable
oil fields which hit targeted
outflow were few.
■ Their forecast peak lasted
briefly.
■ Of 100 fields, only eight hit or
exceeded design capacity.
■ On average, 100 fields hit
54% in year two, 56% in
year three, and were down
to 47% in year four.
*For additional information please refer to closing slide for contact information
regarding form major project performance and statistics.
Peak Oil And Gas Is True Threat
To Sustainable Society
■ Global oil peaked in 2005.
■ We probably peaked in global gas
soon thereafter.
■ How rapidly flows ebb is unsolved
mystery.
■ Absent data reform, no one
can make an educated guess.
■ Best case by 2020:
– Global crude flow 55 – 60 MMB/day
– Global gas flows fall faster
– Oil and gas shocks become
prevalent over next decade Source: EIA Monthly Energy Report – March 2008
Thus Far, 2005 Set Record For
Global Crude Flows
■ Four years have elapsed since global crude output set
all-time record of 73,728,000 b/d.
■ How many added years of falling supply need to happen
before we accept that oil peaked?
September 2009 EIA
Monthly Energy Review
------ „000 B/D ------
2003 69,433
2004 72,481
2005 73,728 [Record production]
2006 73,446
2007 72,989
2008 73,706 [Assumes Saudi Arabia produced 9,281]
2009 71,723* [*6 month average]
Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review - September 2009
SIMMONS & COMPANY
INTERNATIONAL
Investment Bankers
to the
Energy
Industry
For information and/or copies regarding this presentation, please contact us at (713) 236-9999 or lrussell@simmonsco-intl.com. This presentation
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