Image source: http://tti.tamu.edu/wp/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/v44n4_rail.

jpg


Hunter Geosystems Presents:


















Niagara Transportation
Corridor Hazard and
Vulnerability Analysis
Prepared for Sean Bertleff: Associate Director of Niagara
Region Emergency Planning

Progress Report

May 26, 2014
Project ID: 201213-01


Sean Bertleff
Associate Director, Regional Emergency Planning
Niagara Region
2201 St. Davids Rd. West
Thorold, ON
L2V 4T7
Dear Mr. Bertleff,
RE: Progress Report Niagara Transporation Corridor Hazard and Vulnerability
Analysis
Please accept this letter as a formal submission of the project progress report for Niagara Transpiration
Corridor Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis prepared for the Niagara Region.

This document outlines the progress of work completed for each task upon the proposed schedule for the
project, including the challenges incurred as well as potential solutions to remedy these challenges. The
report discussed the work remaining as well as the project findings to-date. There has not been any
hazardous material (HAZMAT) shipment data received at this point, and open-source research has been
unsuccessful due to a limited availability of data relative to this study. Hunter Geosystems has proposed
solutions to remedy the challenges of open-source data availability such as the development of a mock-up
project to analyze community vulnerability to HAZMAT transport through the Niagara Region. The
project is 31% complete and the project status is currently behind schedule.

The initial budget required to successfully complete this project has been revised to accommodate for the
challenges to date. The revised final budget is $35, 732 with a 10% contingency to compensate for any
unforeseen challenges that may arise throughout development of this project. Hunter Geosystems is
confident that this project will be completed for the absolute deadline of June 13, 2014.

If you have any questions regarding these documents or the assignment in general, please feel free to
email me or call 905-375-9219 at your convenience. Thank you.

Sincerely,



Konrad Hunter B.A.
Project Manager: Hunter Geosystems
GIS-GM Certificate Candidate
K.H


Enclosures:
i) Project Progress Report Niagara Transportation Corridor hazard and Vulnerability Analysis
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Executive Summary

Hunter Geosystems, in association with Niagara College, has been provided the opportunity to take part
in a nine-month project which will examine community vulnerability to the transportation of dangerous
goods through the Niagara Region. The client, Sean Bertleff of the Niagara Region Emergency Planning
office, has outlined the expectations and requirements which will serve as the framework for carrying
out the project.
The goal of this project is to provide an assessment of community vulnerability to the transportation of
dangerous goods (TDG) over road, rail and marine transport through the Niagara Region. Many
communities (both residential and commercial) are located within close proximity to these
transportation routes. This presents an increased risk of community exposure to volatile substances in
the event of an accident involving TDG. The findings of this project will be applied to the development of
mitigation strategies to increase the preparedness of local emergency services, thus minimizing the
potential impacts of an accident involving TDG.
It was originally proposed that open-source data regarding TDG throughout the Niagara Region would
be available. However, extensive research has not provided applicable data for this study, which has
significantly impacted the in-depth analysis of community vulnerability. The data which is to be provided
by CN Rail has not been received and the date for acquisition has been revised to April, 2014. Hunter
Geosystems has developed potential solutions to remedy the future challenges regarding the acquisition
of HAZMAT shipment data, such as the development of a generalized mock-up project.
Hunter Geosystems has completed 93.5 hours of work on the project to-date which brings the status of
completion to 31%. The final budget has been revised to $35, 732 (with applicable taxes), which has
remained within the proposed contingency 10% from the initial budget.

The successful completion of this project will benefit the Niagara Region by providing a comprehensive
analysis of community vulnerability to the transportation of dangerous goods through the Niagara
transportation corridor. These findings will be applied to the Niagara Regions Hazard and Mitigation
Strategy and Plan set for a 2014 launch.

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Table of Contents

1.0 Project Overview ............................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Project Issue .................................................................................................................................. 1
1.2. Client Overview ............................................................................................................................. 2
1.3. Study Area ..................................................................................................................................... 2
2.0 Project Goals and Objectives ............................................................................................................ 5
2.1 Project Deliverables ...................................................................................................................... 5
3.0 Summary of Progress To-Date .......................................................................................................... 8
3.1 Project Management .................................................................................................................. 11
3.2 Understanding the Project .......................................................................................................... 12
3.3 Collecting/Analyzing HAZMAT Data ............................................................................................ 13
3.4 Assemble Geodatabases for Hazardous Materials Transported by Road, Rail and Marine Freight
14
3.5 Prepare Maps of Processed Data to Display Community Vulnerability in Niagara Region ........ 15
4.0 Analysis of Budget To-Date ............................................................................................................. 16
4.1 Budget by Major Task ................................................................................................................. 18
5.0 Revised Final Budget ....................................................................................................................... 20
6.0 Project Challenges ........................................................................................................................... 20
6.1 Provided HAZMAT Shipment Data .............................................................................................. 20
6.2 Open-source HAZMAT Shipment Data ....................................................................................... 21
7.0 Potential Solutions .......................................................................................................................... 22
8.0 Remaining Work .............................................................................................................................. 23
9.0 Findings and Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 25
10.0 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 28
Works Cited ................................................................................................................................................. 29

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List of Figures
Figure 1 Niagara Region Study Area Boundary ............................................................................................. 3
Figure 2 Niagara Region Transportation Networks ...................................................................................... 4
Figure 3 Work Breakdown Structure ............................................................................................................ 7
Figure 4 Cost Breakdown by task (estimated) .............................................................................................. 9
Figure 5 Percentage of Work Complete to Date ......................................................................................... 10
Figure 6 Earned Value Over Time ............................................................................................................... 17
Figure 7 Project Budget to Date by Task ..................................................................................................... 19
Figure 8 City of St. Catharines Land use with Transportation Networks .................................................... 26
List of Tables
Table 1 Project Deliverables ......................................................................................................................... 6
Table 2 Project Management ...................................................................................................................... 11
Table 3 Understanding the Project ............................................................................................................. 12
Table 4 Collect/Analyze HAZMAT Data ....................................................................................................... 13
Table 5 Assemble Geodatabases ................................................................................................................ 14
Table 6 Prepare Maps of Processed Data ................................................................................................... 15
Table 7 Project Budget Overview................................................................................................................ 16
Table 8 Schedule of Key Deliverables and Dates ........................................................................................ 24


List of Appendices
Appendix A Original Request for Proposal ................................................................................................. A
Appendix B Project Overview Statement ................................................................................................... D
Appendix C Niagara Transportation Corridor Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis Gantt Chart ..................H

Proposal Report
December 9, 2013

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1.0 Project Overview

The Niagara Region represents a major transportation corridor in Southern Ontario. Highways such as
the QEW, numerous railway lines and extensive shipping via the Welland Canal define how goods move
through the area. As industrial development in Canada increases in the wake of our booming energy
sector, the transportation of hazardous materials and dangerous goods increased as a result. This has
raised much concern over the safety and wellbeing of the general public as well as the natural
environment, considering the major impacts that occur in the event of an accident involving hazardous
materials in transport. The Niagara Region represents a unique area for transportation due to a close
proximity to the United States border, as well as providing the infrastructure to support all forms of
transportation. Therefore, this region provides an ideal location for implementing a hazard and
vulnerability analysis using Geospatial technologies.
As Niagara Region begins plans to implement a Hazard Mitigation Strategy and Plan in 2014, assessing
community vulnerability is essential. This project is progressing, but has experienced significant
challenges in the acquisition of data and has fallen behind schedule. The research of open-source
shipment data has required more work than estimated, resulting in the work-to-date to exceed the
initial budget. Revisions have been made to the project schedule as well as the final budget to
accommodate these challenges. Potential solutions have been developed to remedy future challenges if
they are to arise. Research remains on-going and data provided by the client is expected in April, 2014.
Once the data is received, Hunter Geosystems will be able to produce an accurate analysis of community
vulnerability to the transportation of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) through the Niagara Region. Our
team is confident that the project will be complete for June 13, 2014.

1.1. Project Issue

A study by the McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics (2011) revealed that, in Canada,
there are upwards of 30 million hazardous good shipments per year. The problem remains that many of
these transportation routes are located in close proximity to communities. This presents a major risk of
community exposure to volatile substances following a disaster involving TDG. Recent accidents
involving the transportation of dangerous goods (TDG) have served as a reminder to significant risk
involved with such activity. Most notably the derailment in Lac Magnetic, Quebec of a 74-car train
carrying petroleum crude oil resulted in a massive explosion and devastating fire, which leveled 30
buildings and caused 47 fatalities on July 6, 2013 (Blatchford, 2013). This event, as well as others like it,
provides important insight into the significant risks involved with transporting hazardous goods through
communities, regardless of the mode of transportation.
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There has not been a significant assessment of community vulnerability to the TDG over road, rail and
marine transport throughout the Niagara Region. Many communities (both residential and Commercial)
are located within close proximity to these transportation routes, thus presenting a risk of community
exposure to volatile substances in the event of an accident. The Niagara Region provides the necessary
infrastructure to support all modes of transportation. Instances of hazardous good transportation are
wide spread in this area, therefore the likelihood that a disaster involving hazardous goods in transport
is potentially high. Investigating community vulnerability will be critical for implementing future
mitigation strategies for the Niagara Region Emergency Planning department, as well as increase the
preparedness of local emergency services.

1.2. Client Overview

The Niagara Region Emergency Management division manages the corporate emergency readiness
functions in preparation for any large scale threat to public health and safety and ensures compliance
with the mandatory legislated requirements of the Emergency Management Act. This includes
responsibility for the Regional Emergency Management Plan, Program Advisory Committee, Emergency
Operations Centre, Training and Exercise Strategy, Emergency Recovery Strategy and Emergency
Information Strategy. The Niagara Region works with area municipal emergency coordinators,
emergency response services, the provincial emergency management agency as well as cross border
partners to ensure joint response capabilities and promote disaster resilient communities (Niagara
Region Emergency Management, 2013).
1.3. Study Area

The Niagara transportation corridor represents a large region, covering the majority of the Niagara
Peninsula. This project will examine the extensive transportation networks which define the flow of
goods to, from and throughout the area. Specifically, this project will examine the road, rail and shipping
networks and the associated hazardous good transport that each mode of transportation predominately
carries. Figure 1 displays the study area boundary for this project. The major transportation networks
that will be analyzed for this project are displayed in Figure 2.




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Figure 1 Niagara Region Study Area Boundary
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Figure 2 Niagara Region Transportation Networks
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2.0 Project Goals and Objectives

The goal of this project is to develop a vulnerability and risk assessment of communities (both
residential and commercial) located within close proximity of transportation networks known to
transport hazardous materials. These communities are at risk of exposure to hazardous materials given
an accident occurs during HAZMAT transportation in the Niagara Region. This project will provide
valuable information on community vulnerability that will be incorporated into the hazard mitigation
planning process developed by Niagara Regions Emergency Management department. The information
produced in the findings of this project will help increase the preparedness of local emergency services,
thus working to effectively minimize the potential impacts of an accident involving hazardous materials
in transport within the Niagara Region.

2.1 Project Deliverables

The project deliverables have been divided into three phases which consist of various tasks to achieve
the successful completion of each milestone. To-date, phase one has been completed on schedule and
within budget. Hunter Geosystems has also made significant progress with the second phase of the
project, having completed the project progress presentation and report on time with the exception of
bi-weekly status updates which remain on-going. The deliverables for this project are outlined in Table 1
Project Deliverablesbelow.










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Table 1 Project Deliverables
Phase 1: Project Proposal

Deliverable 1.1: Project Overview Statement
Deliverable 1.2: Project Proposal Presentation
Deliverable 1.3: Proposal Report
Phase 2: Progress Report

Deliverable 2.1: Progress Report
Deliverable 2.2: Progress Report Presentation
Deliverable 2.3: Bi-Weekly Status updates
Phase 3: Final Report

Deliverable 3.1: Prepare maps of hazardous material transportation by road
Deliverable 3.2: Prepare maps of hazardous material transportation by rail
Deliverable 3.3: Prepare maps of hazardous material transportation by marine freight
Deliverable 3.4: Prepare maps of vulnerable communities within Niagara Region
Deliverable 3.5: Final report and presentation




Tasks Complete
Tasks Complete
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A Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), which divides the project phases according to major tasks and
subtasks, was developed to provide a layout of the various tasks associated with completing the Niagara
Transportation Corridor Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis. The successful analysis of community
vulnerability in the Niagara Region to the transportation of dangerous goods will be reliant on the
completion of each structured task. At this phase of the project, Hunter Geosystems has completed task
1.1 Project Management and 1.2 Project Understanding, with the exception of the meetings which
remain ongoing. The most critical aspects of this project will be completing tasks 1.3 1.5. This includes
the data collection, organization and analysis, thus enabling the development of final maps and report
analysis. The project will conclude with a final report and presentation of the findings to the client.
Figure 3 displays the project WBS, indicating the tasks completed to date.

Figure 3 Work Breakdown Structure
Tasks Completed
Tasks Remaining
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3.0 Summary of Progress To-Date

In reference to the WBS (Figure 3), Hunter Geosystems has divided the project into 5 major tasks with
corresponding subtasks. This section will outline the progress of each task to-date, analyzing the
proposed start and end dates, the estimated work required (in hours) along with estimated cost and
compares these values to the actual start and end date as well as the actual work completed and the
corresponding costs incurred. Project Management and Understanding the Project have progressed on
schedule and within budget. Collecting/Analyzing HAZMAT data, Assembling Geodatabases and the
Preparation of Final Maps/GIS Analysis have not progressed on schedule due to various challenges
which have impacted the ability for Hunter Geosystems to complete certain tasks at this point. These
challenges will be discussed later in this report. Revisions have been made to accommodate the
schedule and budget changes. A significant amount of work remains for the final three tasks. Figure 4
displays the estimated budget for each of the major tasks. Figure 5 (next page) displays the percentage
of work completed to date for each major task.

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Figure 4 Cost Breakdown by task (estimated)
$9,900.00
$4,250.00
$1,758.00
$3,825.00
$11,985.00
Cost Breakdown by Task (Revised)
Project Management
Understanding the Project
Collect/Analyze GIS data
Assemble Geodatabases
Prepare Maps of Processed Data/
Analysis
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69%
100%
46%
1%
31%
54%
100%
99%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Project
Management
Understanding the
Project
Collect/Analyze
HAZMAT data
Assemble
Geodatabases
Prepare Maps of
Processed Data/
Analysis
Percentage of Work Complete to Date
% Remaining
% Complete
Figure 5 Percentage of Work Complete to Date
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3.1 Project Management

The first task has been defined as Project Management, which includes on-going meetings with the
client and academic advisor as well as the bi-weekly status updates. This task included planning out the
project to gain an understanding of the project scope and required materials. This information was used
to develop a Project Overview Statement which was presented to the client upon approval from the
academic advisor. The Project Management task remains on budget and on schedule, with only the on-
going tasks remaining to be completed as the project progresses. At this stage, the Project Management
task is 69% complete and should remain on schedule for the duration of the project.
Table 2 Project Managementdisplays information regarding the Project Management task, providing an
overview of the proposed start and end dates, estimated work and estimated costs and compares them
to the actual work completed and the actual costs associated with this task to date.
Table 2 Project Management
Project Management
Proposed Start Date: Thurs 9/26/13
Proposed End Date: Fri 6/13/14
Estimated Work (hours): 39.5
Estimated Cost: $9,522
Actual Start Date: Thurs 9/26/13
Actual Finish Date: On-going until project is complete
Actual Work (hours): 29
Actual Cost: $6,214
Percentage Complete: 69%
Budget Discrepancy: $3,308
Deliverables: Project Overview Statement, Bi-weekly Status
Updates
On Schedule








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3.2 Understanding the Project

Understanding the project was essential for Hunter Geosystems to determine how to accurately
produce an analysis of community vulnerability to the transportation of dangerous goods throughout
the Niagara Region. This task included extensive background research and literature reviews of similar
projects. This information along with recommendations from the client allowed Hunter Geosystems to
identify the project objectives as well as to define the project deliverables. This task included the
preparation of a proposal report and presentation, which was approved by the academic advisor and
submitted to the client. This task is now 100% complete and remained within budget.
Table 3 examines this task, providing an overview of the proposed start and end dates, estimated work
and estimated costs and compares them to the actual work completed and the actual costs associated
with this task to date.

Table 3 Understanding the Project
Understanding the Project
Proposed Start Date: Thurs 9/26/13
Proposed End Date: Fri 1/31/14
Estimated Work (hours): 47
Estimated Cost: $3,995
Actual Start Date: Thurs 9/26/13
Actual Finish Date: Fri 12/13/13
Actual Work (hours): 45
Actual Cost: $3,825
Percentage Complete: 100%
Budget Discrepancy: $170
Deliverables: Proposal Presentation, Proposal Report
Task Complete







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3.3 Collecting/Analyzing HAZMAT Data

Data acquisition and analysis will be critical for a successful investigation of community vulnerability to
the transportation of hazardous goods through the Niagara Region. As recommended by the client, data
regarding the hazardous materials transported over Road, Rail and Marine networks will be investigated
using open-source resources. Unfortunately, there have been significant challenges associated with
obtaining open-source HAZMAT shipment data, which has ultimately inhibited the progress of the
project. Hunter Geosystems has signed a confidentiality agreement with CN to gain access to (HAZMAT)
shipment data for the Niagara Region. However, the date of acquisition has been revised and is
expected sometime in April 2014. Access to confidential data is a significant constraint which will
determine success of this project. Hunter Geosystems has been in contact with the Ontario Ministry of
Transportation as well as the St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation in attempts to gain access
to HAZMAT shipment data. However, various circumstances regarding have prevented the release of
this information to Hunter Geosystems. These challenges will be discussed in detail later in this report.
To date, this task is 46% complete and has fallen behind schedule due to the various challenges incurred
thus far. Undertaking extensive research has caused the project to progress over the budget at this
point, as a significant amount of work remains. The project progress presentation and progress report
have been completed on schedule, representing the major deliverables associated with this task. Table 4
outlines the proposed start and end dates, estimated work and estimated costs and compares them to
the actual work completed and the actual costs associated with this task to date.
Table 4 Collect/Analyze HAZMAT Data
Collect/Analyze HAZMAT Data
Proposed Start Date: Mon 2/3/14
Proposed End Date: Wed 3/19/14
Estimated Work (hours): 23
Estimated Cost: $1,955
Actual Start Date: Thurs 2/9/14
Revised Finish Date: Tues 4/15/14
Actual Work (hours): 15
Actual Cost: $1,311
Percentage Complete: 46%
Budget Discrepancy: $644
Deliverables: Progress Presentation, Progress Report
Behind Schedule, Over Budget



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3.4 Assemble Geodatabases for Hazardous Materials Transported by
Road, Rail and Marine Freight

Assembling geodatabases according to hazardous material shipments by mode of transportation will be
important for data organization as well as data analysis. This task cannot begin until HAZMAT data is
collected and/or receive. It is important for Hunter Geosystems to determine the most common types of
hazardous goods transported through the Niagara Region by road, marine and rail transport. This
information will be further analyzed to develop a probabilistic risk assessment of community
vulnerability. Efficient data organization will improve this analysis as well as the creation of final maps
used to display the findings of the project. Unfortunately, no progress has been made with the assembly
of geodatabases due to the overall lack of HAZMAT transportation for the Niagara Region specifically.
Once the data is received and/or provided via open-source resources, this task will be initiated. It has
been estimated that this task will take 45 hours and cost $3,825. However revisions will be made if there
are discrepancies regarding the actual work and actual cost associated with this task.
Table 5 examines the proposed start and end dates, estimated work and estimated costs and compares
them to the actual work completed and the actual costs associated with this task to date.
Table 5 Assemble Geodatabases
Assemble Geodatabases
Proposed Start Date: Mon 2/4/14
Proposed End Date: Wed 5/13/14
Estimated Work (hours): 45
Estimated Cost: $3,825
Actual Start Date: TBD
Revised Finish Date: Wed 5/13/14
Actual Work (hours): 0
Actual Cost: $0
Percentage Complete: 0%
Budget Discrepancy: $3,825
Behind Schedule






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3.5 Prepare Maps of Processed Data to Display Community
Vulnerability in Niagara Region

The preparation and creation of final maps will be one of the most critical components of this project, as
this will provide a visual overview of community vulnerability in the Niagara Region. All maps will be
created using ArcMap 10.1. The evaluation of community vulnerability will require the application of
proximity buffers and possible plume analysis to reflect the area of exposure resulting from an accident.
The exact number of maps that will be required for a full analysis of HAZMAT transport as well as
community vulnerability is yet to be determined. This task has had no significant progress, with the
exception of a few maps created for the purpose of this report and the corresponding presentation. The
majority of the project budget has been allocated to the work required for this task, with the estimated
total work required to complete this task being set to approximately 141 hours. An overall lack of data
has prevented the progress of this task. The major deliverables associated with this task are the final
presentation and final report, which will commence no later than June 13, 2014.
Table 6 examines the proposed start and end dates, estimated work and estimated costs and compares
them to the actual work completed and the actual costs associated with this task to date.
Table 6 Prepare Maps of Processed Data
Prepare Maps of Processed Data/GIS Analysis
Proposed Start Date: Tue 4/22/14
Proposed End Date: Fri 5/30/14
Estimated Work (hours): 141
Estimated Cost: $11,985
Actual Start Date: TBD
Revised Finish Date: Mon 6/2/14
Actual Work (hours): 2.25
Actual Cost: $191
Percentage Complete: 1%
Budget Discrepancy: $11,794
Deliverables: Final Presentation, Final Report
Behind Schedule




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4.0 Analysis of Budget To-Date

NOTE: This project budget has been prepared for learning purposes only and in no way is the client
expected to compensate for these proposed costs. The value of this project is being donated to the
client by the student consultant, Niagara College and the advisory staff.
An analysis of the project budget provides an understanding of how the project is progressing. Microsoft
Project was utilized to track the amount of work done for each task and subtask (in hours) as well as the
costs associated with the work completed to date. At this phase in the project schedule, the Planned
Value (PV) to date was calculated to be $15,649. This exceeded the Actual Cost (AC) of work completed,
which was $11,675 and considered the work complete for all tasks to date. Calculations reveal that the
Earned Value (EV) of the project is $11,158. The Cost Variance (CV) was calculated to determine if the
project is progressing on budget. The calculations reveal that the project is actually over budget at this
point, with a CV of -$517. This is supported by the Cost Performance Index (CPI) ratio of 0.98, which
indicates that for every dollar spent there was $0.98 of work completed. Schedule Variance (SV) will
indicate the difference between EV and PV (Booz, Allen, & Hamilton). The SV was calculated as -$4,534,
which indicates that the project is behind schedule. This calculation is further supported by the
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) of 0.71. Table 7 below displays the project budget overview.
Table 7 Project Budget Overview

Due to unforeseen challenges regarding the data collection and subsequent analysis, the project has
fallen behind schedule. Although some tasks have been executed within budget and on schedule, with
major deliverables such as the proposal report and presentation as well as the progress report and
presentation completed on time, the remaining tasks have not experienced the amount of work that
Project Budget Overview
Planned Value (PV): $ 15,694
Actual Cost (AC): $ 11,675
Earned Value (EV): $ 11,158
Cost Variance (CV): ($ 517)
Over Budget
Schedule Variance (SV): ($ 4,534)
Behind Schedule
Cost Performance Index (CPI): 0.98
Schedule Performance Index (SPI): 0.71
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Earned Value Over Time Report
Earned Value Planned Value AC
was expected at this stage of the project. Figure 6 provides a visual representation comparing EV, PV
and AC and indicates how this has progressed over the duration of the project. The graph supports the
project status, indicating that the project is slightly over budget and behind schedule.





Figure 6 Earned Value Over Time
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4.1 Budget by Major Task

Evaluating the cost associated with each task provides an understanding of how the work required for
each is allocated in regards to the project budget. The major tasks Project Management and
Understanding the Project have accounted for the majority of the project budget to date.
Collecting/Analyzing HAZAMT has required a significant amount of labour and is exceeding the
proposed budget for this task due to the extensive research that has occurred. This task is expected to
require more hours of work than originally proposed due to the lack of data actually obtained as a result
of the numerous challenges experienced to date. The assembly of geodatabases and preparation of final
maps have experienced a very minimal amount work, therefore have not accounted for much of the
project budget to date. It is expected that these tasks will require a significant amount of work once
data is received. Figure 7 displays the baseline cost estimated for each task and compares these values
to the actual cost associated and the corresponding variance
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12000
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Baseline Cost Actual Cost Variance
Figure 7 Project Budget to Date by Task
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5.0 Revised Final Budget

The final budget for this project has been revised since the project proposal. The initial budget was
calculated to be $35,391 (including HST), which included the hardware, software, transportation and
personnel costs. Upon updating the actual work and costs associated with the project tasks completed
to date, the final budget was revised to $35,732 (including HST) with a contingency of +/- 10%. The
revised final budget remains within the original contingency calculated for the project proposal.

Revised Final Budget with HST (+13%):
$35, 732
Contingency (+/- 10%):
$3, 573

6.0 Project Challenges

The project has experienced significant challenges in gaining access to HAZMAT shipment data regarding
road, marine and rail transport throughout the Niagara Region. The client has suggested that Hunter
Geosystems investigate open-source data resources to obtain the required information for this project.
This has resulted in extensive research using online resources as well as cold calling and emailing various
corporations to request access to HAZMAT shipment data. The overall lack of data provided to Hunter
Geosystems has significantly set the project behind schedule due to the inability to begin an accurate
analysis of community vulnerability to the transportation of HAZMAT through the Niagara Region. The
following section will examine the challenges to-date in detail.
6.1 Provided HAZMAT Shipment Data

Hunter Geosystems has signed a confidentiality agreement with CN Rail to obtain their shipment data
for HAZMAT through the Niagara Region. This was facilitated by the client in the early stages of the
project, allowing Hunter Geosystems to develop the project schedule in terms of the progression of
major tasks. The date for which this data would be received by Hunter Geosystems was to be
determined in the first quarter of 2014. Unfortunately, there has been a delay in the acquisition of the
CN Rail data and Hunter Geosystems has yet to receive this information to begin analyzing the impact of
HAZMAT rail shipments through the Niagara Region. The client has indicated that the CN Rail data is
expected to be available in April of 2014. This is critical for the successful progression of the project.
Looking forward, it is important to consider the timeline constraint of finishing the project no later than
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June 13, 2014. If the rail data is not received by April, it could jeopardize the successful outcome of this
project.
6.2 Open-source HAZMAT Shipment Data

As suggested by the client, Hunter Geosystems has investigated numerous open-source resources in
attempts to obtain HAZMAT shipment data for dangerous goods transported through the Niagara
Region by road and marine transport. Extensive online research has been executed, in attempts to find
current data regarding the transportation of dangerous goods throughout the Niagara Region. This has
proved to be a difficult task, as most corporations do not provide HAZMAT shipment information to the
public due to issues of confidentiality. Also, it has been difficult to find HAZMAT shipment data for the
Niagara Region specifically, which is crucial for an accurate assessment of community vulnerability.
There have been numerous efforts made to contact the St. Lawrence Seaway as well as the Ministry of
Transportation Ontario (MTO), requesting access to any HAZMAT transportation information.
Unfortunately, MTO has declined our request for information claiming they do not have such
information or are simply unable to release it. Hunter Geosystems was able to contact a few employees
of the St. Lawrence Seaway with a request for HAZMAT shipment data for the Welland Canal. However,
these individuals were not permitted to release the shipment data and referred me to their superiors.
However, the many attempts to contact these individuals were unsuccessful as most simply did not
respond to email or phone messages left by Hunter Geosystems.
It is clear how challenging data acquisition can be for a GIS project of this caliber. The issue of
confidentiality regarding HAZMAT shipment data has significantly impacted our research, proving that
not all information is available via open-sources such as the internet. Corporations do not see a benefit
from the findings of this project; therefore they are reluctant to provide confidential information such as
HAZMAT shipment data. There are also concerns with the accuracy of open-source data, as it could
present information that is out-of-date or no longer relevant to the study area. Accurate information is
critical for an effective analysis of community vulnerability to the transportation of dangerous goods
throughout the Niagara Region.
Looking forward, we will continue to research any possible sources for HAZMAT shipment data specific
to the Niagara Region in hopes to find relevant information for this project. We have developed some
possible solutions which will be discussed in the following section.




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7.0 Potential Solutions

Upon conducting extensive research online as well as discussing possible alternative options with the
team at Hunter Geosystems, we have developed some potential solutions for the challenges
experienced thus far. Due to the issue of finding open-source information, Hunter Geosystems has
devised a plan to contact local emergency services, such as fire departments, police stations, etc., to
investigate the known locations where hazardous materials are present within the Niagara Region. This
could provide and list of HAZMAT processing facilities, such as factories that use HAZMAT in the
manufacturing of goods, which could be further analyzed to determine the most common type of
HAZMAT transported through the area. This knowledge is critical to effectively analyze the potential
impact an accident involving HAZMAT in transport would have on communities within the Niagara
Region.
The transportation networks used to ship the required materials to these locations will be analyzed and
mapped accordingly to provide an understanding of how these goods move through the Niagara Region.
This information could then be utilized to produce an assessment of community vulnerability. The
locations of the facilities as well as the corresponding transportation networks could be mapped out and
further analyzed to identify the areas of high risk to the exposure of HAZMAT in transport.
Open-source resources could provide the locations of high risk areas by examining the proximity of
school zones, hospitals, retirement communities and high-density residential communities to
transportation routes used for shipping dangerous goods. This approach will provide a generalized
analysis of community vulnerability that would provide emergency services with the areas deemed of
high risk to exposure in the event of an accident involving HAZMAT in transport.
This approach will only be necessary if the challenges associated with data acquisition continue in the
coming months due to the absolute project deadline of June 13, 2014.








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8.0 Remaining Work

There remains a significant amount of work to be done for this project. As mentioned earlier in this
repot, Hunter Geosystems is yet to acquire the CN Rail shipment data to begin an analysis of community
vulnerability to the transportation of dangerous goods by rail. This data is expected to be received in
April, 2014. Our team will continue to research possible data sources using the internet as well as
continue attempts to contact corporations that transport goods through the Niagara Region.
Once Hunter Geosystems receives/acquires data, we will begin developing geodatabases to organize the
HAZMAT data by type of material and transportation method. This information will be further analyzed
to develop a probabilistic risk assessment of community vulnerability. Efficient data organization will
improve our analysis as well as the creation of final maps used to display the findings of the project.
The goal of this project is to use the acquired HAZMAT data to determine the areas in the Niagara
Region most likely to experience disaster involving hazardous materials in transport. Maps will be
created to display each of the HAMAT transportation networks (map of HAZMAT transport by road, map
of HAZMAT transport by rail and map of HAZMAT transport by marine freight). This visual analysis will
be utilized for developing regional maps which indicate the location of communities vulnerable to
exposure of HAZMAT materials in the event of a disaster while in transport.
An evaluation of community vulnerability will require the application of proximity buffers and
potentially the development of plume analysis to reflect the area of exposure resulting from an
accident. The exact number of maps that will be required for a full analysis of HAZMAT transport as well
as community vulnerability is yet to be determined.
If issues continue with the acquisition of HAZMAT shipment data, as discussed earlier in this report, the
methodology for executing this project may change to accommodate the changes in scope. This refers
to the potential development of a mock-up of community vulnerability using known location
communities or high risk areas in close proximity to transportation networks known to ship dangerous
goods through the Niagara Region. Table 8 below outlines the schedule of project milestones and the
revised dates for which these tasks will be completed.






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Table 8 Schedule of Key Deliverables and Dates






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9.0 Findings and Analysis

The Niagara Region Municipality provides land use shapefiles which can be downloaded from their
website and displayed in ArcMap 10.1. Hunter Geosystems has developed map layouts that display the
land use within the Niagara Region, providing a visual understanding of the land use is defined for
various municipalities. The transportation networks examined for the study of community vulnerability
to the transportation of dangerous goods were indicated on these maps and used to determine the
proximity of vulnerable communities (residential/commercial) to such infrastructure. The locations of
schools were indicated on the maps to provide a visual understanding of how close many of these
locations are to the transportation routes examined in this study. Schools, hospitals and retirement
communities are important to analyze because they generally represent a high number of people
concentrated at one location. Therefore, an accident involving HAZMAT in transport would have a
profound impact on these communities if they are located close to transportation networks known for
HAZMAT transport.
The locations of fire stations were also mapped to provide an analysis of response rates if an accident
involving the transportation of dangerous goods occurs at locations within close proximity to vulnerable
communities. Maps will be developed for all municipalities within the Niagara Region to indicate areas
of potential exposure given an accident occurs involving HAZMAT in transport.
For the purpose of this report, Hunter Geosystems has provided a map of St. Catharines, Ontario using
the parameters described above. St. Catharines provides an ideal case study for such an analysis
because it has the highest population of any municipality within the Niagara Region, with 131,400
residents (Population Statistics). The municipality of St. Catharines also contains all of the transportation
networks to be analyzed for this project, with major highways such as the Queen Elizabeth Way and
Highway 406, numerous CN Rail networks as well as the Welland Canal. Figure 8 below displays a map
of the City of St. Catharines land use along with the locations of fire stations, schools as well as the
transportation networks used for HAZMAT shipments.
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Figure 8 City of St. Catharines Land use with Transportation Networks
St. Catharines
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It becomes clear when examining the map (Figure 8) that numerous residential communities (defined as
yellow) as well as schools (point features) are located in close proximity to transportation routes known
for shipping dangerous goods. If an accident involving HAZMAT was to occur along transportation
routes within the municipality of St. Catharines, there are a large number of residential areas as well as
schools that are of high risk to exposure. This is important to analyze when developing a probabilistic
risk assessment of community vulnerability to the transportation of dangerous goods. The locations of
fire stations provide an understanding of potential response rates for emergency services to respond to
an accident involving HAZMAT shipments.
The Welland Canal by-passes many residential communities, suggesting that an accident along this route
involving HAZMAT has the potential to impact a large number of communities. Railways also pass
through many residential communities and a high number of schools are located in close proximity to
this infrastructure. Both the main rail line and auxiliary lines have the potential for transporting
HAZMAT, therefore it will be important to determine the status of the industrial land use in regards to
the use of dangerous goods. The highways passing through St. Catharines are also known transportation
routes for HAZMAT shipping. Figure 8 displays the location of many residential communities and schools
in close proximity to the highways, suggesting they are at risk to exposure given an accident involving
HAZMAT occurs along these routes.
It will be crucial for Hunter Geosystems to develop a list of known HAZMAT being shipped through the
Niagara Region. This information will allow for an accurate assessment of impact by applying proximity
buffers according to the type of material, as certain dangerous goods have a larger impact zone in
comparison to others. Another approach could be to examine plume analysis for each type of hazardous
material. Both options will provide an accurate analysis of community vulnerability, as locations within
the impact zones will be considered areas high risk to exposure.







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10.0 Conclusion

The project has now beyond the scheduled half-way point while maintaining an absolute finish date of
June 13, 2014. At this phase of the project, the Project Management tasks are progressing on schedule
and within budget with the majority of sub-tasks complete with the exception of on-going meetings with
the advisor and client as well as bi-weekly status reports. To-date, the Project Understanding task has
been completed on schedule and within the proposed budget. Unfortunately, there have been some
set-backs in regards to data collection due to unforeseen circumstances regarding the availability of
open-source hazardous material (HAZMAT) shipment data specifically for the Niagara Region. Extensive
research has caused the project to exceed the proposed budget due to the allocation of work to this
task.
Data which is to be provided to Hunter Geosystems by CN Rail is expected to be received in April, one
month later than initially scheduled. Therefore, the lack of HAZMAT data for the project has delayed
progress in regards to the development of geodatabases which has also hindered the preparation of
maps which will identify community vulnerability to rail, marine and road shipments of dangerous
goods.
The scope of the project may be altered to accommodate the challenges discussed in this report or if
open-source data is rendered inapplicable to the current study. However, data research will remain
ongoing. Hunter Geosystems has outlined potential solutions which could provide an assessment of
community vulnerability by executing a mock-up project to identify areas of high risk of exposure to TDG
within the Niagara Region. The revised budget has been calculated to be $35, 732 (with applicable
taxes), while maintaining a contingency of +/-10%.
Hunter Geosystems would like to formally acknowledge Mr. Sean Bertleff and the Niagara Region
Emergency Management office as well as Niagara College for providing the opportunity to participate in
this project. We are confident that the outcome of this project will benefit both the Niagara Region
Emergency Management and local emergency services as they proceed to develop a Hazard and
Mitigation Strategy and Plan in 2014.






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Works Cited

Blatchford, A. (2013). Why was Lac-Mgantic crude oil so flammable?: Authorities want closer look at
cargo from train disaster. National Post. Retrieved December 3, 2013 from

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/08/02/why-was-lac-megantic-crude-oil-so-flammable-

authorities-want-closer-look-at-cargo-from-train-disaster/

Booz, Allen, & Hamilton. (n.d.). Earned Value Management Tutorial. Retrieved March 18, 2014, from
Department of Energy:
http://www.srs.gov/general/EFCOG/04Training/DOETutorials/Mod6MetandPerfMeas.pdf

McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics. (2011). Movements of Dangerous Goods Across the
Credit Valley Conservation Watershed. Retrieved December 1, 2013 from

http://mitl.mcmaster.ca/research/documents/MITL_Credit_Valley.pdf

Niagara Region Emergency Management. (2013). Niagara Community Information Database. Retrieved
December 3, 2013 from http://niagara.cioc.ca/record/NIA0554

Populations Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved March 18, 2014, from City of St. Catharines:
http://www.stcatharines.ca/en/investin/Demographics.asp

Wallace, M. (2014 ). Project Progress Report Terms of Reference. Niagara-on-the-Lake: Niagara College.


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Appendix A Original Request for Proposal

















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Appendix B Project Overview Statement

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F



G


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Appendix C Niagara Transportation Corridor Hazard and Vulnerability
Analysis Gantt Chart

















Chart: Project Gantt Chart