Population key facts

A demographic profile of the Tower Hamlets population

Summary of key findings
The Tower Hamlets resident population at mid-2010
was 237,900 this is the latest estimate from the
Office for National Statistics.

Tower Hamlets is the third most densely populated
borough in England with an average of 12,034
residents per square kilometre.

Tower Hamlets is a fast growing borough. During
2001-2010, the population increased by 36,800 - a rise
of 18 per cent - three times faster than the rate
nationally. Tower Hamlets is the third fastest growing
area in England, after Westminster and the City of
London.

a high level of population turnover
0 the rate of change was 237 per
- 11
Tower Hamlets has
and churn. In 2009/1
1000 population
th
highest in England.

Consistent with these high levels of population
y, Tower Hamlets has a young population:
37 per cent of the boroughs population is aged
with 20 per cent in England.
mobilit
20-34 compared

Tower Hamlets has the lowest percentage of
ioners in England: seven per cent of the
boroughs population are aged 65 and over,
compared with 16 per cent in England.
pens

One fifth of the boroughs population are aged
under 16 - similar to the percentage in London
d England. However, there are significant
differences by ethnicity: the boroughs
Bangladeshi population has a far higher
proportion of children than the White population.
an
Research Briefing 2011-06
August 2011
CONTENTS

About this report 3

Population size and change
Counting the population 4
Population size 5
Population density 6
Population change 2001-2010 7
Drivers of population change 8
Migration 9
Population turnover and churn 10

Population composition
Age 12
Ethnicity 14
Country of birth 16
Faith 18
Ethnicity and age 19
Gender 21

Population growth
Growth 2011-2026 22
Population growth by age 22
Population growth by ethnicity 24

Appendices
A: Further information 26
B: Data tables 28


Summary Page 2
GLA estimates for 2011 show that 47 per cent of the boroughs population are from BME
groups. This is high compared to the London average (34 per cent) and is the fifth highest
in London, after Newham (70 per cent), Brent (58 per cent), Harrow (53 per cent) and
Redbridge (49 per cent).

Within the boroughs BME population, the largest ethnic group is the Bangladeshi
population, who make up 30 per cent of all residents. Tower Hamlets has by far the
largest Bangladeshi population in both London and England.

The boroughs BME population has a younger age profile than that of the White population.
Of all residents aged under 20 in the borough - 77 per cent are from BME groups (55 per
cent from Bangladeshi groups and 22 per cent from other BME groups).

Estimates for 2007-09 show that around four out of every ten Tower Hamlets residents
were born outside the UK, just above the average for Inner London (41 vs. 39 per cent).
The 2001 Census identified borough residents from over 130 different countries.

The boroughs largest faith groups are Christian and Muslim. At the time of the 2001
Census, 39 per cent of residents identified themselves as Christian and over one third of
residents said they were Muslim (36 per cent), the majority of whom were Bangladeshi.

In 2010, the gender split in the population is 51 per cent male and 49 per cent female, or
expressed another way, 105 males for every 100 females.

The Tower Hamlets population is expected to grow significantly in the future. Projections
from the GLA predict that the boroughs population will rise from 254,200 (the current
estimate for 2011) up to 326,100 by 2026. This would be a 28 per cent increase, more than
double the rate of expected increase across London (11 per cent). If realised, it would
make Tower Hamlets one of the fastest growing areas in the capital, alongside Greenwich.

The boroughs population is expected to grow across all age groups, but growth is
strongest in the older age groups, especially among the 50-64 age group which is expected
to grow by 67 per cent between 2011-2026. The number of children (under 16s) is also
expected to grow though less rapidly at 26 per cent. Overall, these changes mean the
Tower Hamlets population will get older over the period.

Over the same period the broad ethnic composition of the population is expected to remain
stable, though the percentage of the population of Bangladeshi origin is expected to fall
slightly from 30 to 28 per cent.
Further information: This Briefing was produced by the Councils Corporate Research Unit
(Chief Executives Directorate). Research briefings provide timely and in-depth analysis of
data about Tower Hamlets and are designed to improve the use and sharing of data across
the Partnership. For more information about this Briefing please contact: Lorna Spence
(Research Officer).

Analysis Page 3
About this report
This briefing presents a demographic profile of the Tower Hamlets population, based on
nationally and regionally produced statistics. The analysis has been designed to help deal
with frequently asked questions about the size and composition of the Tower Hamlets
population.

Content and Structure
The report covers the following topics:

Counting the population: issues
Population size and density
Population change
Drivers of population change: migration and natural change
Population turnover and churn
Population composition by age
Population by ethnicity, country of birth and faith
Population by ethnicity and age
Population by gender
Population growth 2011-2026
Population growth by age
Population growth by ethnicity

Appendix A provides further information on: the data sources that underpin the analyses;
advice on their appropriate application; and web-links for those who would like access to the
full datasets.

Appendix B provides a set of data tables that give additional detail for reference purposes.

Copyright and acknowledgments
ONS data presented in this briefing have been reproduced with the permission of the
controller of Her Majestys Stationery Office and are Crown Copyright (2011). GLA
population projections data that are reproduced here are also subject to copyright (
Greater London Authority, 2011).

Note on definitions used in this report
BME: Throughout this report the term BME is used to refer to residents from Black and
minority ethnic groups (ie all ethnic groups except White groups).

Inner/Outer London: The definitions of Inner and Outer London adopted here are based on
the European Statistical areas (NUTS)
1
which are extensively used by ONS. These may
differ from other definitions of Inner and Outer London used (eg by CLG for local
government finance purposes). Appendix table B1 shows which boroughs fall into Inner and
Outer London using this definition.

1
Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) was created by the European Office for Statistics
(Eurostat) as a single hierarchical classification of areas used for statistical reporting across the EU.

Analysis Page 4
Counting the population - issues
The issue of exactly how many residents there are living in Tower Hamlets is not a
straightforward one. There are a wide range of different population estimates and
projections available. Indeed, figures relating to the size of the Tower Hamlets population
can vary from 196,106 up to 254,200 depending on the particular data source used, and
importantly, the year which the data relate to (Table 1).

Table 1 Population figures compared - Tower Hamlets
ONS: Census population estimate for 2001 196,106
ONS: Latest ONS mid-year estimate for 2010 237,900
ONS: Population projection for 2011 237,200
GLA: Population projection for 2011 254,200
Source: Office for National Statistics, Greater London Authority (2010 Round Demographic Projections).

Available data include official census and population estimates from the Office for National
Statistics (ONS), as well as independent estimates, such as the Greater London Authority
(GLA)s demographic projections which are widely used across London.

GLA vs. ONS population projections
In the case of Tower Hamlets, independent estimates tend to be higher than official
estimates. Indeed, the GLAs population projection for Tower Hamlets for 2011 is 254,200,
considerably higher than the ONS projection for the same year (237,200). This is because
ONS projections are trend based (ie they assume past trends continue) and do not take
account of planned development or the capacity of different London boroughs to
accommodate population growth. In the case of Tower Hamlets, ONS projections data are
thought to significantly understate the future size of the population. In contrast, GLA
projections take on board development data supplied by London boroughs and,
consequently, are thought to provide a more reliable guide to future population growth. For
this reason, GLA projections are used here in preference to ONS projections.

Data used in this briefing
In addition to GLA projections, this report also draws on a range of other population data
sources including the ONS mid-year estimates, the Annual Population Survey and the 2001
Census - which while less timely, is still the best source of data for some subjects.

In practice, no single data source emerges as entirely comprehensive, and the analysis
presented here has been designed to use the best data from each source to build a profile
of the boroughs resident population. As data are drawn from different sources and, in some
cases, relate to different years, the borough population totals shown on different tables and
charts may vary.

Appendix A provides further information on the different population data sources available
and comments on their strengths and limitations.







Analysis Page 5
Population size
The ONS 2010 mid-year population estimate for Tower Hamlets is 237,900. This relates to
the population usually resident in the borough
2
. In terms of population size this makes the
borough about average for London, ranking 15
th
out of 33 areas when ranked by size (figure
1).

Figure 1 Mid-2010 population estimates, London Boroughs ranked by size
11,700
169,000
169,500
169,700
179,700
190,900
194,100
194,200
208,800
219,200
225,000
227,100
228,000
228,500
230,100
235,400
236,100
236,800
237,900
240,100
253,100
256,600
266,100
266,500
270,500
284,500
287,000
289,600
294,900
312,400
318,500
345,600
348,200
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
City of London
Kingston Upon Thames
Kensington & Chelsea
Hammersmith & Fulham
Barking and Dagenham
Richmond Upon Thames
Islington
Sutton
Merton
Hackney
Haringey
Waltham Forest
Bexley
Greenwich
Harrow
Camden
Havering
Hounslow
Tower Hamlets
Newham
Westminster
Brent
Hillingdon
Lewisham
Redbridge
Lambeth
Southwark
Wandsworth
Enfield
Bromley
Ealing
Croydon
Barnet
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2010 mid-year estimates of population (released June 2011)
Greater London = 7.825m
Inner London = 3.083m
Outer London = 4.742m

2
The usually resident population includes long-term international migrants (defined as those who
express an intention to stay more than a year) but excludes short-term migrants (defined as those who
expect to stay less than a year).



Analysis Page 6
Population density
In common with most Inner London boroughs, the borough has a very high population
density reflecting the fact that it is small in terms of geographical area relative to the size of
the population it holds.

In Tower Hamlets, there were 12,034 residents per square kilometre, more than twice than
as high as the density across London (4,978 residents per km
2
), and considerably above the
population density across England (401 residents per km
2
).

Tower Hamlets has the 3rd highest population density of all local authority areas in England,
after Kensington & Chelsea and Islington (figure 2).

Appendix table B1 provides further information on population density for London boroughs.

Figure 2 Population density, London Boroughs ranked by size, 2010
2,080
2,103
2,300
3,325
3,648
3,764
3,994
4,014
4,029
4,229
4,429
4,536
4,558
4,795
4,826
4,980
5,552
5,736
5,852
5,934
6,629
7,580
7,605
8,451
9,948
10,345
10,606
10,798
11,499
11,784
12,034
13,061
13,973
0 5,000 10,000 15,000
Bromley
Havering
Hillingdon
Richmond upon Thames
Enfield
Bexley
Croydon
Barnet
City of London
Hounslow
Sutton
Kingston upon Thames
Harrow
Redbridge
Greenwich
Barking and Dagenham
Merton
Ealing
Waltham Forest
Brent
Newham
Lewisham
Haringey
Wandsworth
Southwark
Hammersmith and Fulham
Lambeth
Camden
Hackney
Westminster
Tower Hamlets
Islington
Kensington and Chelsea
Source: Office for National Statistics
Persons per square kilometre

Analysis Page 7
Population change 2001-2010
During 2001-2010, Tower Hamlets was the third fastest growing area in England, after
Westminster and the City of London. Over this period, the boroughs population increased
by 36,800 a rise of 18 per cent. This is three times faster than the rate of growth nationally
(6 per cent) and more than double the London rate (7 per cent).

Over the last year, the boroughs population has risen by 3,100 - a rise of 1.3 per cent.

Table 2: ONS mid-year population estimates for Tower Hamlets 2001-2010

Population
estimate
Increase from
previous year % increase
2001 201,100 4,000 2.0
2002 207,300 6,300 3.0
2003 209,200 1,800 0.9
2004 212,000 2,800 1.3
2005 214,100 2,100 1.0
2006 217,200 3,100 1.4
2007 221,800 4,600 2.1
2008 226,800 5,000 2.2
2009 234,800 7,900 3.4
2010 237,900 3,100 1.3

2001-2010 36,800 18.3
Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2010 (Released June 2011)
Notes: Following ONS convention, all data are rounded to nearest 100.



Figure 3 Change in population 2001-2010, Tower Hamlets, London and England



18
6
6
10
15
20
8
7
0
Tower Hamlets Inner London Outer London Greater London England
5
Percentage increase (%), 2001-2010
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates 2001-2010

Analysis Page 8
Drivers of population chan
Two main factors drive population natural change whi cess of births
o aths; and migration which et flow of population d out of the bor h.
M on flows include people mo een Tower Hamlets e rest of the UK
( l migration) and people mo een Tower Hamlets e rest of the wo
( tional migration).

Last years population increase of ents in the Boroug driven by natur
chan ring 2009-10, there wer hs and around 1,0 a which led to a
n ase in ulation of 3,500. Migration was marg eg e as mo
p (-300). Overall, these
c
igure 4 shows drivers of change since 2001 and illustrates how variable migration flows are
e
of this
e level of
and a
Tower


ge
change: ch is the ex
ver de is the n into an oug
igrati ving betw and th
interna ving betw and th rld
interna
3,100 resid
e 4,50
h was
00 d
al
ge. Du 0 birt e ths
ativ atural incre the pop inally n re
eople left the borough than moved in giving a net outflow of
3
hanges led to the population rise of 3,100 (rounded) .

F
over time. Last year, international immigration caused most of the population growth in th
borough, whereas this year natural change has driven growth.

Looking at the period 2001-2010 as a whole, the population increased by 36,800
increase, almost three quarters (72 per cent) was caused by natural change. Th
natural change has also increased over the period, reflecting an increase in births
decrease in deaths. Data on live births show that there were 4,500 live births in
Hamlets during 2009-10 the highest number recorded over this period.
Figure 4 Components of population change in Tower Hamlets, 2001-2010
2,500 2,600
2,800 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,100
3,500
3,800
-700 -700
200
1,600
1,900
4,800
-300
(0)
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Net migration & other changes
Natural change
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-year population estimates 2002-2010 (components of change
l i )
Population change


3
All data are rounded to the nearest hundred, which is why the 3,500-300 outflow does not equate exactly
to the net increase of 3,100.

Analysis Page 9
Internal and international migration
f
e
al
lting
he international flows were smaller in size than the internal flows, and more residents left to
igure 5 International and internal migration flows, Tower Hamlets, 2009-2010

Caveats about the quality of ONS migration data
ONS data on international migration refer to long-term migrants (ie people who enter or
leave the UK for a period of at least one year). Short-term migrants are not included, and are
also excluded from the mid-year estimate of population. ONS hopes to publish separate
estimates of short term migrants shortly.

More generally, caution is required in relation to interpretation of ONS migration data. Unlike
births and deaths data, migration data are difficult to estimate. ONS use complex modelling
techniques (which draw in various survey and administrative data) to generate the figures,
and there is some concern over their accuracy at local authority level, especially in London.
Net migration figures disguise the significant size of the population flows in and out of the
borough. Figure 5 breaks the figures down for 2009-10. Over the year, ONS estimate that
there was an inflow of population into Tower Hamlets of around 28,000 which was
completely cancelled out by an outflow of 28,300 giving the marginal migration outflow o
300.

As figure 5 illustrates - three-quarters of all population flows relate to internal migration (i
the population that moves in and out of borough to and from the rest of the UK). The intern
inflows and outflows of around 22 and 21 thousand almost cancel each other out resu
in a small net inflow of 1,000 from the rest of the UK.

T
go overseas (-7,900) than the number who arrived from overseas (+6,500) resulting in a net
outflow of -1,400 international migrants.

F
The data are presented here because they are the only data available on migration flows at
borough level, but staff should bear in mind they are estimates not precise measures.
21,500
6,500
-20,500
-7,900
-28,300
1,000
-1,400
-300
-40,000
-20,000
0
Internal migration (within UK) International migration All migration
28,000
40,000
20,000
Inflow Outflow Net change
Population change
Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-year population estimates 2009-2010 (components of change analysis)

Analysis Page 10
Population turnover and churn
The extent to which people move around both in and out of an area, and also within area
has important implications for service planning and delivery. This is especially true across
Inner London where migration flows are high. These flows can be measured by pop
turnover rates. Definitions of population turnover and/or churn can vary. Here, two
measu
s,
ulation
res are explored:
ear estimates. While timely, the main
limitation of these rates is that they do not capture the movement of people within areas.
ndard measure, but also include within borough
moves (churn) based on 2001 Census migration figures
5
. The main limitation of this
2001.


ONS population turnover rates (standard measure)
ONS population turnover rates relate the sum of an areas population inflows and
outflows to the size of its resident population (on a per 1000 population basis). ONS
publishes these figures annually alongside the mid-y

Total turnover rates - including within borough churn (wider measure)
These rates
4
are based on the ONS sta
measure is it assumes that the level of churn has remained similar to patterns as at

Table 3 shows both measures for all the London boroughs, ranked by highest to lowest, on
the basis of the first measure (ONS turnover rates).

The ONS population turnover rate for Tower Hamlets (2009/10) is 237 per 1000 population.
Three quarters of this population turnover comes from internal migration flows which
account for 176 per 1000 population. International flows account for 61 per 1000 population.

In common with many Inner London boroughs, Tower Hamlets has a high population
turnover rate compared to other local authority areas across England. Tower Hamlets ranks
11
th
out of 354 English local authority areas
6
and 8
th
highest in London. Inner London
boroughs and university towns, such as Oxford and Cambridge, top the list of high
population turnover areas.

Once within borough moves are also considered, overall population turnover in Tower
Hamlets rises to 289 per 1000 population (ie around 29 per cent of the borough population
moved in a year
7
). On this measure, Tower Hamlets is also ranked 8
th
highest out of 33 in
London.







4
These rates are based on GLA methodology which has been replicated here using the latest ONS
rnover data for 2009-10 and 2001 Census data. tu
5
2001 Census figures provide an estimate of the number of borough residents who lived elsewhere in the
borough one year prior to the Census date, this figure is expressed as a proportion of the Census
population at that time to produce a within borough movers per 1000 population. Total turnover is
calculated by adding this figure to the ONS population turnover figure.
6
Local authority rankings are based on district/unitary areas in place prior to the 2009 re-organisation of
English local government.
7
This total turnover figure is an approximation of the proportion of the population who have moved in a
year.

Analysis Page 11

Table 3 Population turnover and churn, London boroughs, 2009-10

ONS population
turnover rates 09-10
Ranked in order of
Sum of all
Turnover
Within
borough
Total
population
turnover
highest to lowest total
Mid 2010
population
flows in
and out of
per 1000
population
movers per
1000 pop
(2001)
rates
(including
churn), per
1000 pop.
turnover
estimate
area
H 343 ammersmith & Fulham 169,700 49,500 292
51
City of London 11,700 3,200 273 22 295
Islington 194,100 52,400 270 41 311
Wandsworth 289,600 77,700 268 63 332
Camden 235,400 61,800 262 55 318
Westminster 253,100 62,200 246 52 298
Lambeth 284,500 69,600 245 48 292
Tower Hamlets 237,900 56,400 237 53 289
Haringey 225,000 52,200 232 50 282
Kensington & Chelsea 169,500 37,100 219 46 265
Southwark 287,000 61,300 214 48 261
Hackney 219,200 44,500 203 48 251
Newham 240,100 48,600 203 51 254
Brent 256,600 50,700 198 50 248
Ealing 318,500 60,000 188 50 239
Merton 208,800 38,700 185 42 227
Hounslow 236,800 43,500 184 48 232
Greenwich 228,500 40,700 178 52 230
Lewisham 266,500 47,400 178 52 229
Kingston upon Thames 169,000 29,400 174 57 230
Waltham Forest 227,100 39,400 173 53 226
Richmond upon Thames 190,900 31,000 162 51 213
Barnet 348,200 52,500 151 48 199
Redbridge 270,500 40,100 148 38 186
Harrow 230,100 33,500 146 41 187
Barking & Dagenham 179,700 25,800 144 42 185
Hillingdon 266,100 37,000 139 52 192
Enfield 294,900 39,800 135 51 186
Croydon 345,600 43,600 126 54 180
Sutton 194,200 21,500 111 49 160
Bromley 312,400 32,900 105 44 150
Bexley 228,000 21,600 95 39 134
Havering 236,100 19,900 84
37
121
Source: ONS 2010 mid-year estimates change analysis; 2001 Census (theme table T33 on migration)


Analysis Page 12
Population by age
C relatively young
population. Figures 6 and 7 illustrate the distinct e Tower Hamlets pop
in comparison to London and England.

T a very entrat side dult a
( of m at 20 red r
c ndon, and 20 pe d. This is also significantly the In
L 32 . Towe ets has the third highest proportion o
r age group in d after ty of Lon and Cam ge.

onsistent with its high levels of population mobility, Tower Hamlets has a
age profile of th ulation
ge group
with 26 pe
ner
ower Hamlets has
ie 20-34): 37 per cent
ent in Lo
high conc
the Tower H
r cent in Englan
ion of re
lets popul
nts within
ion is aged
the young a
-34 compa a
above
ondon average (37 vs. per cent) r Haml f
esidents in this Englan , the Ci don brid
Table 4 Population comp age r Hamlets, London & land, 201
Per age totals
osition by , Towe Eng 0
cent (%)

Tower
Hamlets
Inner
ndon Lo
O
Lon
Greater
Lon Engla
uter
don don nd
ALL AGES (=100%) 1 100 100 100 100 00

Summary age groups
0-15 20 18 20 20 19
16-64 73 73 66 69 65
65 and over 7 9 13 12 16

0-19 24 22 25 24 24
20-34 37 32 22 26 20
35-59 29 33 35 34 34
60 and over 9 13 18 16 22

Base population 237,900 3,08 4,741, 7,825,200 52,234,0 3,300 900 00
Source: ONS Mid-Year Estima R leas ) tes 2010 ( e ed June 2011

C ely, Tower Hamlets l st n of pe ners acro ll local
a land: f th gh population are age nd over
c d with 12 per cent on per cent in England.

T tion of children a 16 in rough po tion is 20 - similar to
that of London and England 1 per spective hough the borough doe
h htly larger popula er 5 cent) than in London (7 per cent) an
E (6 per cent).

T e however significa n es b city across the age profile of Tower
H The boroughs Ba opu as a high rtion of children com d
t s
at follow.

Appendix tables B2 and B3 provide further data on the population by age and gender.
onvers has the owe proportio nsio ss a
uthority areas in Eng 7 per cent o e borou d 65 a
ompare across Lond and 16
he propor ged under the bo pula per cent
(20 and 9 cent re ly), t s
ave a slig tion of und s (8 per d
ngland
here ar nt differe c y ethni
amlets. ngladeshi p lation h propo pare
o a relatively low proportion in the White population. This is explored further in the section
th

Analysis Page 13
Figure 6 Population by age, Tower Hamlets compared with England, 2010
20 15 10 5 0 10 15 20
5-9
-19
-24
25-29
40-44
75-79
5
0-4
10-14
15
20
30-34
35-39
80-84
85+
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
Tower Ha lets m England
ercentage of p ation (%)
Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2010 (Released June 2011)



Figure 7 Population by age, To Hamlets compared w London, 2

P opul
wer ith 010
20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20
0-4
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
Tower Hamlets London Percentage of population (%)
Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2010 (Released June 2011)

Analysis Page 14
Population by ethnicity
GLA population projections provide useful inter-censal estimates of the population by ethnic
group. Estimates presented below relate to projected population figures for 2011.

J ust under half of the boroughs population are from Black and minority ethnic (BME) groups
8
.
Tower Hamlets has the fifth highest percentage of BME residents in London (47 per cent) -
after Newham (70 per cent), Brent (58 per cent), Harrow (53 per cent) and Redbridge (49 per
cent) compared to a London average of 34 per cent.

Figure 8 Percentage of population from BME groups, London Boroughs, 2011

8
BME is used to refer to residents from Black and minority ethnic groups (ie all ethnic groups except White
groups).
8
12
13
14
17
22
22
23
24
24
26
28
29
30
31
31
32
33
36
38
40
40
42
42
43
46
47
49
53
58
70
0 20 40 60 80
Havering
Richmond upon Thames
Bromley
Bexley
Sutton
Wandsworth
Kensington and Chelsea
Kingston upon Thames
Hammersmith and Fulham
City of London
Islington
Westminster
Camden
Merton
Barking and Dagenham
Hillingdon
Enfield
Barnet
Lambeth
Southwark
Hackney
Lewisham
Croydon
Waltham Forest
Hounslow
Ealing
Tower Hamlets
Redbridge
Harrow
Brent
Newham
Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections
(SHLAA scenario released Feb 2011)
Inner London =36%
Outer London =33%
Greater London =34%
34
35
Greenwich
Haringey

Analysis Page 15
Within the boroughs BME population, the largest single ethnic group is the Bangladeshi
am
here Bangladeshi residents account for 11 per cent of the population. Bangladeshi
ze (ie numbers) and the percentage of
e population that were Bangladeshi . In 2001, 23 per cent of the Bangladeshi population



population, who account for 30 per cent of all residents. Tower Hamlets has by far the
largest Bangladeshi population in London; the second largest population is in Newh
w
residents in Tower Hamlets make up 40 per cent of the Bangladeshi population in London
9
.

At the time of the 2001 Census, Tower Hamlets also had the largest Bangladeshi population
in England and Wales in terms of both population si
10
th
in England and Wales lived in Tower Hamlets.
Table 5 Population by ethnic group, Tower Hamlets and London, 2011
Tower Hamlets Greater London

Number of
residents % total
Number of
residents % total
All ethnic groups 254,200 100 7,900,500 100
White 135,500 53 5,188,400 66
Bangladeshi 75,300 30 188,700 2
Indian 5,500 2 529,900 7
Pakistani 1,600 1 192,100 2
Other Asian 4,600 2 264,700 3
Chinese 8,400 3 115,500 1
Black Caribbean 4,700 2 371,200 5
Black African 7,200 3 509,800 6
Black Other 3,900 2 218,200 3
Other 7,500 3 321,900 4

All BME groups 118,700 47 2,712,100 34
Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections
Indian, Pakistani and other Asian ethnic groups - together - comprise 5 per cent of the
population and Chinese groups make up 3 per cent of the population. Residents from Black
ethnic groups make up 6 per cent of the population. GLA ethnicity data do not identify Somali
residents separately. However, a review of different estimates carried out by the Councils
Strategy and Performance team in 2010, suggests that the size of the Somali population in
Tower Hamlets is likely to be somewhere between 2-3 per cent of the population
11
.
Residents from White ethnic groups comprise 53 per cent of residents. No further breakdown
of the White population is available from GLA data but the 2001 Census, while less timely, is
able to provide some intelligence on this. In 2001, White groups made up just over 51 per cent
of the Tower Hamlets population: 43 per cent were from White British groups, 2 per cent were
White Irish and 7 per cent were from other White groups. More detailed data on the size of
different ethnic groups in Tower Hamlets will be available in 2012 when the 2011 Census
results emerge.

GLA Ethnic Group Population Projections for 2011 (2010 Round, SHLAA).
9
10
GLA, Bangladeshis in London, DMAG Briefing 2004/16.
rofile of the population (25.10.10).
11
LBTH, Strategy and Performance team: The Somali population in Tower Hamlets: estimating the size
and age p

Analysis Page 16
Population by country of birth
To complement data on ethnicity, information on country of birth provides further detail on
diversity within the boroughs population. Estimates from the Annual Population Survey
(2007-2009), show that around one in every three Londoners were born outside the U
This group is hugely diverse and includes older residents who migrated to London years
K.
go, alongside more recent arrivals.
ent and Newham top the list in each of
ese boroughs, just over half the population were born outside the UK.
igure 9 Percentage of population bo London borou
a

In Tower Hamlets, 41 per cent of borough residents were born outside the UK, just above
the average for Inner London (39 per cent). Tower Hamlets is ranked 8
th
highest out of the
32 boroughs
12
on this measure. Westminster, Br
th

F rn outside UK by gh, 2007-2009


12
Estimates are not available for the City of London.
9
11
13
16
23
0 20 40 60
Havering
Bexley
Bromley
Sutton
Richmond upon Thames
Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey, 2007-2009. To improve reliability of the
survey estimate
Inner London =39%
Outer London =30%
Greater London =33%
25
26
26
27
27
30
30
33
32
Kingston upon Thames
Greenwich
Croydon
Hillingdon
Barking and Dagenham
Islington
Lewisham
Barnet
33
34
3
3
36
36
37
38
39
40
41
41
4
5
44
44
53
Southwark
orth
Enfield
Redbri e
Merton
Lambeth
Hackney
Fulham
ounslow
Haringey
er Hamlets
Camden
Harrow
Ealing
and Chelsea
Newham
Brent
inster
% of res lation bor K
s, three year averages were used, based on survey data for the periods: 2007 (Jan-Dec), 2008
(Jan-Dec), 2009 (Sept 08-Oct 09).
46
51
53
Waltham Forest
Wandsw
dg
Hammersmith and
H
Tow
Kensington
Westm
ident popu n outside the U

Analysis Page 17
2001 Census data, while less timely, remain the best source for detailed data on the size of

ge of countries with significant populations from Asia,
urope and Africa. In total, the Census counted at least 130 different migrant populations
individual migrant populations in the borough (Table 6). Residents from Bangladesh are, by
far, the largest single migrant group who comprised just over half (53 per cent) of the
boroughs migrant population in 2001.

The other half were from a diverse ran
E
resident in the borough (ie populations of ten or more people born in one country).

Table 6 Population by country of birth, Tower Hamlets, 2001
Population % total
All residents 196,103 100

Born in UK 128,127 65
England 122,230 62
Scotland 2,934 1
Wales 1,834 1
Northern Ireland 983 1
UK (not specified) 146 0

Born outside UK: by area 67,976 35
Europe 9,717 5
Africa 7,148 4
Asia 43,250 22
North America 3,622 2
South America 712 0
Oceania & other 3,527 2

Born outside UK: top 20 countries
Bangladesh 35,820 18
Republic of Ireland 2,692 1
Australia 1,568 1
Somalia 1,353 1
New Zealand 1,213 1
Vietnam 1,147 1
South Africa 1,146 1
India 1,091 1
Nigeria 1,012 1
Germany 1,005 1
Hong Kong 857 <1
France 851 <1
Pakistan 827 <1
U.S.A 820 <1
J amaica 746 <1
Italy 733 <1
Ghana 696 <1
Cyprus 558 <1
China 514 <1
St Lucia 500 <1
Other countries of birth 12,545 6
Source: 2001 Census (commissioned table C0413 & standard table ST102).


Analysis Page 18
Migrant populations that numbered more than one thousand residents included those born
in: Ireland, Australia, Somalia, New Zealand, Vietnam, South Africa, India, Nigeria, and
Germany.

Census figures relate to a snapshot of the population in 2001, and may understate the

t update
f the size and profile of the boroughs newer migrant populations.

Population by faith
C the ethnic profile of the population hs largest faith e
Chr lim. At the time of the 2001 Censu e ent of residents id tified
t Christian and over one third of resid Muslim per cent).

1 of residents said they had no religion, an r cent did not answe e Census
q (which was voluntary) so their faith is unkno

O presented in the borough include: dhists, J ews, Hindus and Sikhs
who together accounted for 3 per cent of the population. Sm ler faith groups were not
i ensus data.

current size of some populations in the borough, especially groups whose migration patterns
have changed markedly since 2001 (eg those from countries such as Poland or Somalia).
2011 Census data are expected in Summer 2012 and these will provide an importan
o
onsistent with
istian and Mus
, the boroug
s, 39 p
groups ar
en r c
hemselves as ents said they were (36
4 per cent d 7 pe r th
uestion wn.
ther faith groups re Bud
al
dentified separately by the C
Table 7 Population by faith, Tower Hamlets, 2001 Census
Number % total
All persons 196,106 100
Christian 75,783 39
Muslim 71,389 36
No Religion 27,823 14
Religion not stated 14,591 7
Buddhist 1,938 1
J ewish 1,831 1
Hindu 1,544 1
Sikh 682 ~0
Any other religion 525 ~0
Source: Census 2001 (table ST103). Note: The Census qu as voluntary and the wording estion w
was: What is your religion?

A f the Census, Tower Hamlets had by far - the highest concentration of Muslim
r gland and Wales
13
. Newham had the s highest percenta t 24 per
c

In terms of population numbers, Tower Hamlets had th largest Muslim p lation in
E d Wales, following Birmingham and Bradfo whose Muslim pop ons were
l number, but represented a smaller proportion sidents (14 and 16 cent
r ly).

In Tower e is a close relationship betwee d ethnicity - in 1, the
m ts (87 per cent) were Ban i.
t the time o
esidents in En econd ge a
ent.
e third opu
ngland an rd ulati
arger in of re per
espective
Hamlets, ther n faith an 200
ajority of Muslim residen gladesh

13
Greater London Authority, Muslims in London, DMAG Briefing 2004-19.

Analysis Page 19
Population by ethnicity and age
To fully understand the demography of Tower Hamlets, it is important to explore the
characteristics of the White and Bangladeshi populations in more detail.

Overall, the boroughs BME population is far younger than the White population, and,
consequently, the majority of children in Tower Hamlets are from BME groups (Table 8).

Table 8 Composition of the population by ethnic group, Tower Hamlets, 2011
Percentage totals (%)
White BME Bangla-
% of age
group from BME
TOTAL groups groups deshi groups
All ages=100% 100 100 100 100 47
0-19 24 11 40 45 77
20-34 37 46 27 25 34
35-49 22 24 20 18 42
50-64 9 11 8 7 39
65+ 7 9 5 5 34

Population (base) 254,200 135,500 118,700 75,300
Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAA
scenario released February 2011)

O m BME groups (55 per cent
from Bangladeshi groups and 22 per cent from other BME g At the oth f the
a n, White residents predominate and account for two thirds of the bo hs
p d 65 and over.

F trates these patterns further by contrasting the ofile of the Bangladeshi
a ns in the borough - who together - account for 83 per cent of th
p .

Figure 10 Population by age, White & Bangladeshi group er Hamlets, 2011

f all residents aged 0 to 19 in the borough 77 per cent are fro
roups). er end o
ge distributio
age
roug
opulation
igure 10 illus age pr
nd White populatio e
opulation
s, Tow
20 15 10 5 5 10 15 20
15 - 19
54
59
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 -
55 -
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 and over
White population Bangladeshi population
Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAA scenario released February 2011)
lling into each age group Percentage of population (%) fa
Age groups

Analysis Page 20
The Bangladeshi population has a far younger age profile than the White population: 45 per
t of the
nd over,
ompared with nine per cent of the White population.
atterns and fertility rates. GLA analysis of historical Census data suggests that the most
s tent with
the current age structure (as many migrants ty dults and go on to
have families of their own). In addition, Ban desh en te
larger families than Whit ts
15

W hite and B deshi p h a stron sentation of res
w e young adult age gr s (typical of Inner Lo n) - this c ntration is part rly
p d in the White pop ion. Com ed with don, the wer Hamlets Whit
p has a distinctive p e that is ily conc trated in the 9 age group re
t 7 per cent) of the Tower Haml White population is a d 0-39 compared with
3 r cent across Lo

cent of the Bangladeshi population are aged under 20 compared with only 11 per cen
White population. Five per cent of the Bangladeshi population is aged 65 a
c

The young age structure of the Bangladeshi population is likely to reflect both migration
14
p
ignificant migrant flow from Bangladesh to London was during the 1980s, consis
pically move as young
ents wit
a
ildr gla i resid h ch nd to have
e residen .
hile both the W angla opulations ave g repre idents
ithin th
ronounce
oup ndo con e icula
ulat par Lon To e
opulation rofil heav en 20-3 : mo
han h
pe
alf (5 ets ge 2
7 ndon.
Table 9 Age profile of e p , T mlets compared with the Whit opulation ower Ha
London, 2011
Tower
Hamlets London London London
TOTAL (=100%) 100 100 100 100
Inner Outer Greater
Age 0-19 11 16 21 19
Age 20-39 57 47 31 37
Age 40-59 21 22 26 25
Age 60 and over 12 14 22 19

Base population:
white residents 135,500 2,034,000 3,154,400 5,188,400
Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections
(SHLAA scenario released February 2011)

Similarly, the boroughs White population has proportionately fewer children and older
residents compared to the London average. This - in part reflects the typical age profile of
the White population in Inner London which is skewed towards the young adult age gr
(Table 9).

As was shown earlier, the overall percentage of children in the boroughs population is
similar to that in London, and in England. This is because the relatively low proportion of
children in the White population is offset by the high proportion of children in the
Bangladeshi population. The figures emphasise the importance of considering data on
ethnicity when profiling the boroughs population as aggregate data often mask
considerable differences between groups and potential service users for different public
services. Appendix table B4 provides further detail on GLA population projections data for
2011 split by ethnic group and age.

oups

14
Greater London Authority, The World in a City, DMAG Briefing 2005/06
15
Greater London Authority, Bangladeshis in London, DMAG Briefing 2004/16.

Analysis Page 21
Population by gender
The ONS mid-year estimates for 2010 show that the gender split of the Tower Hamlets
population is 51.2% male to 48.8% female or expressed another way, 105 males f
100 females. This is unusual as most areas have a gen
or every
der ratio that slightly favours women
r one that is balanced; across England, the gender ratio is 97 males per 100 females.
ets, Inner London and England, 2010
o

On the males per 100 females measure, Tower Hamlets ranks 11th highest across 354
local authority areas across England. The City of London has the highest male to female
rate at 121 males per 100 females.

Figure 11 Gender ratio by age, Tower Haml
120
140
160
Tower Hamlets
Inner London
England
Males per 100 females
0
20
40
60
80
100
0-4 5-9 10-14 1 20-24 25-29 30-34 40-44 45-49 5 55-59 60-64 65-6 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Source: ONS mid-year estimates of population (2010)
5-19 35-39 0-54 9
Age group

T ups.
N
arly thirties, after which the balance changes to a female surplus which increases with age.
re
mlets, patterns are quite different as the male surplus runs to much higher ages
nd there is far more volatility in the ratio. In the borough, men outnumber females
,
9
oups
ct the gender and age profile of the Inner London
population, where men also outnumber women in the 30-44 age group. However, as the
chart shows these patterns are much more pronounced in Tower Hamlets.
here are some significant differences in the gender balance across different age g
ationally, males tend to outnumber females at birth and maintain this advantage till the
ro
e
This is illustrated by the fairly smooth curve in the gender ratio for England by age (figu
11).

In Tower Ha
a
significantly within the 35-54 age group. For example, among the population aged 40-44
there are 138 males for every 100 women.

Conversely, women outnumber men among the 20-24 age group, and again in the 65-6
age group. In common with most areas, women also outnumber men in the 80+age gr
though in Tower Hamlets this happens to a lesser extent.

These patterns in some part refle


Analysis Page 22
Population growth 2011-2026
te
ower Hamlets population will grow from 254,200 in 2011 up to 326,100 in 2026, a rise of
e expected increase across London (11 per cent), and if
alised, would make Tower Hamlets the fastest growing area in the capital alongside

Figure 12 GLA population projections for Tower Hamlets 2011-2026
Tower Hamlets has seen rapid population growth in recent years, and projections indica
that the pace of growth is expected to continue.

The latest population projections from the Greater London Authority
16
, suggest that the
T
71,900 and a percentage increase of 28 per cent (figure 12).

This is more than twice as fast as th
re
Greenwich (Appendix table B5 shows the projections at borough level).
254,200
283,800
312,400
326,100
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2011 2016 2021 2026
Source: Greater London Authority: 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)
% growth 2011-2026
Tower Hamlets =28%
Inner London =14%
Greater London =11%


Population growth by age
In terms of numbers, the boroughs population is expected to grow across all age groups,
but growth is strongest in the older age groups, especially among those aged 50-64. This
population is expected to increase in size from 24,100 up to 40,200 over the period 2011-
026 - a percentage increase of 67 per cent. Over the same period, the 35-49 age group
significantly over the period though less fast:
e number of under 16s is predicted to rise from 51,500 up to 65,100 between 2011 and
y
ehind these analyses.

2
and the over 65s group are also expected to show strong growth (45 per cent and 35 per
cent respectively).

The child population is also expected to rise
th
2026 a percentage increase of 26 per cent. Figures 13 and 14 illustrate these changes b
showing the rise in population across each age group, in terms of both numbers and the
percentage increase. Appendix table B6 provides the data b




Greater London Authority: 2010 Round Demographic Projections, SHLAA (released February 2011).
16

Analysis Page 23

Figure 13 Population growth by age (numbers), Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026




Figure 14 Population growth by age (% increase), Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: Greater London Authority; 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)
Age 35-49
Age 25-34
Age 0-15
Age 50-64
Age 16-24
Age 65 and over
28
45
35
67
40
60
26
0
80
nd
over
8
12
0
All persons Age 0-15 Age 16-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-49 Age 50-64 Age 65 a
2
% increase in population: 2011-2026
S ce: Greater London Authority; 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)
%
our

Analysis Page 24
These changes by age group mean that, overall, the Tower Hamlets population is expected
gh

to get older over the next fifteen years. Figure 15 shows the percentage of the borou
population falling into each age group in 2011 and in 2026. This shows the ageing on of the
population as the peak of residents currently in their late twenties and early thirties reach
their forties and fifties by 2026.

Figure 15 Tower Hamlets population profile by age, 2011 and 2026
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
2011 2026
Percentage of population (%) in each age group
Source: Greater London Authority; 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February
Age (single year of age)
Population growth by ethnicity
As the boroughs population grows, the broad ethnic composition of the population is
expected to remain fairly stable (Figure 16 and Table 11). Over the period 2011-2026, the
White population is expected to rise by 38,700 a rise of 29 per cent. The percentage of the
borough population who belong to White groups is expected to remain the same over the
period (at just over half - 53 per cent).The Bangladeshi population is expected to grow by
15,800 during 2011 to 2026 a percentage increase of 21 per cent. The percentage of the
boroughs population who are Bangladeshi is expected to fall from 30 to 28 per cent.

The percentage of the boroughs population who belong to other BME
17
groups is expected
to rise from 17 to 19 per cent. Within this group, there is considerable variation in the rate of
population growth across ethnic groups. The Chinese population has the fastest growth rate
and is expected to grow from 8,400 up to 13,900 (a percentage rise of 67 per cent) over the
period. In contrast, the boroughs Black Caribbean population, which has a much older age
profile, has the lowest growth rate of only 7 per cent.

The difference in population growth rates reflects differences in age structures, fertility rates
and migration patterns across ethnic groups - all of which feed into the GLAs predictions.

17
In this context, Other BME groups refers to all Black and minority ethnic groups except the
Bangladeshi group.
2011)

Analysis Page 25
Figure 16 Ethnic composition of the population, Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026
White ethnic groups Bangladeshi ethnic groups Other BME groups Population
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAA scenario released February 2011)
Year



Table 11 Population projections by ethnic group, Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026
Projected
tion
Composition
(% totals)
Population growth
2011-2026 popula
2011 2026 2011 2026 Number increase
%
All groups 254,200 326,100 100 100 71,900 28

White groups 135,500 174,300 53 53 38,700 29
All BME groups 118,700 151,800 47 47 33,100 28
- Bangladeshi 75,300 91,100 30 28 15,800 21
- Other BME groups: 43,400 60,700 17 19 17,300 40
Indian 5,500 7,900 2 2 2,400 45
Pakistani 1,600 2,000 1 1 300 19
Other Asian 4,600 6,500 2 2 1,900 43
Black African 7,200 8,800 3 3 1,600 22
Black Caribbean 4,700 5,100 2 2 300 7
Black Other 3,900 5,000 2 2 1,100 27
Chinese 8,400 13,900 3 4 5,600 67
Other 7,500 11,600 3 4 4,100 54
Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAA
scenario released February 2011)




Appendices Page 26
Appendix A: Further information about population data


Figure A1 A GUIDE TO DATA SOURCES ON POPULATION FOR TOWER HAMLETS
Source and description Frequency & latest
data (as at July 2011)
Uses / Pros and Cons
Census/population estimates
Census of population
Detailed small area data on the
demographic and socio-
economic characteristics of the
population.
The Census is carried
out every ten years.
2001 Census data are
latest available; 2011
data are expected
2012.
Key benchmark for ONS population estimation.
Inform decisions about public sector funding.
Used for local service planning.
Pros: Good for small area analyses and for
exploring detailed population characteristics
Cons: out of date
ONS mid-year estimates
(MYEs)
* Official estimates of resident
population for local authorities,
available by age and gender.

Frequency: annual.
Latest data are the
2010 MYE. Data are
usually released in
Summer and relate to
the population as at the
previous year.
Used for statistical returns to government &
input to calculation of some PIs.
Population denominator for rates where
comparator data needed for other LAs.
Pros: Useful for comparing Tower Hamlets with
rest of England.
Cons: some controversy over accuracy,
particularly of migration components.
Population projections*
ONS sub-nati
p
onal
rojections (SNPP)
Official ONS projections, by
a
2033, for all LAs in England.
Frequency: usually
every two years.
Latest available: 2008-
cover year

Used by CLG and other government
departments for funding allocation.
Pros: none (from LA perspective).
ount is
d develop
y opulati
Ham commended.
*
ge and gender. From 2008 to based SNPP which Cons: SNPP are trend based and no acc
s 2008-2033 taken of expecte
understates likel
lets - not re
ment, significantly
on growth in Tower p
G A population projections
* r boroughs by age and
g .
* ta by ward, ethnic group,
l ousehold.
*
d
Freq
Late Ro
trat ic
A t.
x ly y L ugh
g urpo y G
s ic ing.
nly so e of ethn roup projections.
Pr od o parin Hamlets to
ot orou , or iling.
Co t e for ondo
L
Fo
ender, to 2031
Da
abour force and h
Takes account of
evelopment data.
uency: Ann
st: 2010
ual.
und
Projections consistent
with the S eg
Housing Land
Availability
ssessmen
Used e
service
tensive
plannin
b
p
ondon boro
ses, and b
s for
LA for
trateg plann
O urc ic g
os: go for c m g Tower
her b ghs and f ethnic prof
ns: No availabl areas outside L n.
T
C Model
* tailed
p ets,
d g
l
M ntl
re w o
exp te 2
De d se e annin he borough
Ba on ti velop rmation.
Pro ailore m ly analy le for sm
area and lin service ing.
Con data n lable y, gende
for a as ou e ower H
ower Hamlets Population
hange and Growth
Designed to provide de
rojections for Tower Haml
own to local area level usin
atest development data.
odel curre
v
y under
iew ne utputs
ected la 011.
taile
s
rvic
m
pl g within t .
ed ely de ment info
s s: t
s
d/ti
ked
e
to
es possib
plann
all
s: ot avai by ethnicit r or
re tsid T amlets.
* Population projections are quite dis po estimate while u tion estimates take on boar
aths and d mi p tterns, ojectio ke ass s about th
n of these tre e f
tinct from pulation s: pop la d
actual changes in births, de estimate gration a pr ns ma umption e
likely scale and directio nds in th uture.
Further information
Further information Page 27
Web-links and contacts for further information

The ONS Mid-year estimates
The latest MYEs (2010) for local authorities are available via the ONS website:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15106

Also, ONS has produced a useful spreadsheet based tool that provides ability to produce
useful summary tables and charts for different areas, and importantly, access to single year
of age data (not published as part of the standard outputs):
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14060&More=N

GLA projections
The GLA makes its population projections available on the GLA datastore website. Outputs
include a customised excel spreadsheet, which can be use to produce tables for different
age groups, as well as access to a variety of summary reports.
http://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/package/gla-demographic-projections

ONS sub-national population projections
The Office for National Statistics produces population projections for local authority areas
but these are not widely used (in the case of Tower Hamlets they are thought to understate
future population growth) see Figure A1. While ONS projections are not generally
recommended, they are sometimes required for official returns or monitoring. They can be
downloaded from the ONS website:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=997&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=272

Tower Hamlets Planning for Population Change and Growth (PPCG) model
Within Tower Hamlets, the Partnership has also developed its own projections model which
generates tailored data for more detailed service planning at a local level. The model uses
the most up to date development data and provides very timely estimates. The model is
currently under review so is not covered in this report. Future outputs are expected to be
available later in 2011. For more information about the PPCG model and current outputs,
please contact marissa.hernandez@towerhamlets.gov.uk in the Strategic Planning team.

For more information about the pros and cons on using different population data, see
Research briefing 2010-03 A guide to population data.
http://towernet/Intranet/staff_services/business_planning/corporate_policy/corporate_research_briefings.aspx


Appendices Page 28

ppendix B: Data tables A

B1. Population size and population density, London Boroughs and England, 2010
3. Population by age, Tower Hamlets, London and England, 2010
ifferent years,
tion totals shown on different tables may differ.
B2 Population by age and gender, Tower Hamlets, 2010
B
B4. GLA population projections by age and ethnicity for 2011
B5. GLA projections for London Boroughs, 2011-2026
B6. GLA population projections by age group, Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026

ote: As data are drawn from different sources, and in some cases, relate to d N
the borough popula


Appendices Page 29

B1 Population size and density, London Boroughs and England, 2010
Population
sq. km
30,279 401
estimate 2010 Area (sq km) People per
England 52,234,000 1

Greater London 7,825,200 1,572 4,978

Inner London 3,083,300 319 9,656
Camden 235,400 22 10,798
City of London 11,700 3 4,029
Hackney 219,200 19 11,499
Hammersmith and Fulham 169,700 16 10,345
Haringey 225,000 30 7,605
Islington 194,100 15 13,061
Kensington and Chelsea 169,500 12 13,973
Lambeth 284,500 27 10,606
Lewisham 266,500 35 7,580
Newham 240,100 36 6,629
Southwark 287,000 29 9,948
Tower Hamlets 237,900 20 12,034
Wandsworth 289,600 34 8,451
Westminster 253,100 21 11,784

Outer London 4,741,900 1,253 3,785
Barking and Dagenham 179,700 36 4,980
Barnet 348,200 87 4,014
Bexley 228,000 61 3,764
Brent 256,600 43 5,934
Bromley 312,400 150 2,080
Croydon 345,600 87 3,994
Ealing 318,500 56 5,736
Enfield 294,900 81 3,648
Greenwich 228,500 47 4,826
Harrow 230,100 50 4,558
Havering 236,100 112 2,103
Hillingdon 266,100 116 2,300
Hounslow 236,800 56 4,229
Kingston upon Thames 169,000 37 4,536
Merton 208,800 38 5,552
Redbridge 270,500 56 4,795
Richmond upon Thames 190,900 57 3,325
Sutton 194,200 44 4,429
Waltham Forest 227,100 39 5,852
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2010 mid-year estimates of population (released June 2011)
Notes: Definitions of Inner and Outer London used here relate to European Statistical areas (NUTS
areas) and may differ from other definitions of Inner and Outer London.


Appendices Page 30

B2 Population by age and gender, Tower Hamlets, 2010
Popula tion numbers Percentage totals (%) Gender split
Persons Males Females Persons Males Females males
Males
% per 100
females
ALL AGES 237,900 121,900 100 100 105 116,000 100 51
Summary age bands:
0-15 47,200 23,700 20 20 101 23,500 19 50
16-64 174,600 90,800 73 72 108 83,800 75 52
65 & over 16,100 7,300 7 8 84 8,700 6 46
0-19 57,400 28,900 24 25 101 28,500 24 50
20-34 88,700 43,900 37 39 98 44,800 36 49
35-59 70,200 39,100 29 27 126 31,000 32 56
60 & over 21,600 10,000 9 10 86 11,600 8 46
0-15 47,200 23,700 20 20 101 23,500 19 50
16-24 34,200 16,600 14 15 94 17,600 14 49
25-34 64,700 32,400 27 28 101 32,200 27 50
35-44 41,500 23,500 17 16 130 18,000 19 57
45-54 21,700 12,200 9 8 128 9,500 10 56
55-64 12,500 6,100 5 5 96 6,400 5 49
65 & over 16,100 7,300 7 8 84 8,700 6 46
Quinary age groups:
0-4 19,200 9 00 8 8 103 ,7 9,500 8 51
5-9 14,500 7,200 6 6 98 7,300 6 50
10-14 11,500 5,700 5 5 100 5,700 5 50
15-19 12,300 6,300 5 5 103 6,100 5 51
20-24 24,000 11,400 10 11 91 12,600 9 48
25-29 33,000 16,000 14 15 94 17,000 13 49
30-34 31,600 16,400 13 13 107 15,300 13 52
35-39 24,900 13,900 10 9 126 11,000 11 56
40-44 16,600 9,600 7 6 138 7,000 8 58
45-49 12,400 7,100 5 5 133 5,300 6 57
50-54 9,400 5,100 4 4 121 4,200 4 55
55-59 7,000 3,500 3 3 100 3,500 3 50
60-64 5,500 2,600 2 2 92 2,900 2 48
65-69 4,000 1,700 2 2 72 2,400 1 42
70-74 4,100 2,100 2 2 99 2,100 2 50
75-79 3,300 1,600 1 1 94 1,700 1 48
80-84 2,500 1,100 1 1 82 1,400 1 45
85+ 2,100 900 1 1 70 1,200 1 41
Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2010 (R June 2011) eleased


Appendices Page 31

B3 Population by age, Tower Hamlets compared to London and England, 2010
Pers n ge to

Tower
Hamlets London England
Tower
Hamlets London E l
ons Perce ta tals (%)
ngand
ALL AGES ,90 , 52,234,000 0 237 0 7 825,200 100 1 0 100
Summary age groups:
0-15 47, 0 1,530,000 20 20 19 20 9,766,300
16-64 ,6 ,39 33,861,400 73 69 65 174 00 5 2,900
65 and over ,1 90 8,606,300 7 12 16 16 00 2,300
0-19 57,40 ,868 12,417,400 24 24 24 0 1 ,500
20-34 ,7 ,05 10,500,500 37 26 20 88 00 2 7,200
35-59 70,2 ,66 17,569,600 29 34 34 00 2 3,100
60 and over ,6 ,23 11,746,500 9 16 22 21 00 1 6,400
0-15 47,2 ,53 9,766,300 20 20 19 00 1 0,000
16-24 ,2 89 6,256,900 14 11 12 34 00 4,900
25-34 64,7 ,50 6,894,800 27 19 13 00 1 0,900
35-44 41,5 ,30 7,470,400 17 17 14 00 1 9,100
45-54 21,7 99 7,128,600 9 13 14 00 6,200
55-64 12,5 692 6,110,700 5 9 12 00 ,000
65 and over ,10 902 8,606,300 7 12 16 16 0 ,300
Quinary age groups
0-4 19,200 586,300 8 7 6 3,267,100
5-9 14,50 456 2,902,500 6 6 6 0 ,900
10-14 ,50 406 2,981,500 5 5 6 11 0 ,800
15-19 12,30 418 3,266,400 5 5 6 0 ,500
20-24 24,00 556 3,605,700 10 7 7 0 ,300
25-29 33,0 74 3,589,700 14 10 7 00 4,000
30-34 31,6 75 3,305,100 13 10 6 00 6,800
35-39 24,9 67 3,564,700 10 9 7 00 7,900
40-44 16,6 63 3,905,800 7 8 7 00 1,100
45-49 12,40 553 3,820,700 5 7 7 0 ,100
50-54 9,40 443 3,308,000 4 6 6 0 ,100
55-59 7,00 357 2,970,600 3 5 6 0 ,800
60-64 5,50 334 3,140,200 2 4 6 0 ,100
65-69 4,00 244 2,434,600 2 3 5 0 ,200
70-74 4,10 215 2,052,300 2 3 4 0 ,900
75-79 3,30 177 1,668,400 1 2 3 0 ,200
80-84 2,50 133 1,253,200 1 2 2 0 ,400
85+ 2,10 131 1,197,800 1 2 2 0 ,700
Source: ONS Mid-Y imates (Re J ne 2011) ear Est 2010 leased u


Appendices Page 32

B4 Persons by ethnic group and age, Tower Hamlets, 2011
Population num )
TOTAL
e
s
A Ba
T TAL
t
s
All
s
a-
hi
bers Percentage totals (%
group
Whit ll BME
groups
ngla-
deshi O
Whi e BM
group
E Bangl
group des
All Ages 254,200 135,500 118,700 75,300 100 100 100 100
0 - 4 20,100 0 8 4 6,00 14,100 9,700 12 13
5 - 9 15,900 0 6 2 3,10 12,800 9,100 11 12
10 - 14 13,100 0 5 2 9 2,10 11,000 8,300 11
15 - 19 12,500 0 5 2 8 9 3,00 9,500 6,900
20 - 24 25,000 0 10 1 8 8 15,00 10,000 6,200 1
25 - 29 37,700 0 15 9 0 9 25,90 11,800 6,700 1 1
30 - 34 31,800 0 13 6 9 8 21,20 10,700 6,000 1
35 - 39 24,300 0 10 1 8 7 14,80 9,500 5,600 1
40 - 44 18,000 0 7 7 7 6 10,10 7,900 4,600
45 - 49 13,300 0 5 5 5 4 7,40 5,800 3,100
50 - 54 10,000 0 4 4 4 3 5,70 4,300 2,300
55 - 59 7,800 0 3 4 3 2 4,80 3,000 1,800
60 - 64 6,300 0 2 3 2 1 4,20 2,100 1,100
65 - 69 4,800 0 2 2 1 1 3,10 1,700 1,000
70 - 74 4,600 2,400 2,100 1,400 2 2 2 2
75 - 79 3,600 0 1 2 1 1 2,20 1,300 900
80 - 84 2,800 0 1 2 1 1 2,10 700 400
85 - 89 1,700 0 1 1 0 0 1,40 200 100
90+ 900 0 0 1 0 0 80 100 100

Age groups - banded
0-19 61,700 0 3 24 1 0 14,30 47,400 4,100 1 4 45
20-34 94,600 0 1 37 6 7 62,10 32,500 8,900 4 2 25
35-49 55,600 0 1 22 4 0 32,40 23,200 3,300 2 2 18
50-64 24,100 0 9 8 7 14,70 9,400 5,200 11
65+ 18,300 0 7 9 5 5 12,00 6,200 3,800
Source: Greater London A , 201 thnic ulation Projections (SHLA nario
February 2011)
uthority 0 Round E Group Pop A sce
released


Appendices Page 33

B5 Population projections (GLA), London Boroughs 2011-2026
Population projections
e
change - 2011 to:
oroughs ranked from
fastest to slowest
growing 20 20 2021 2026 20 0 6
Percentag
B
11 16 16 2 21 202
Tower Hamle ,20 3,800 2 4 6 23 8 ts 254 0 28 31 , 00 32 ,100 12 2
Greenwich ,4 2,80 6 200 8,60 13 23 8 241 00 27 0 29 , 30 0 2
City of London ,70 7 18 5 9 0 10,400 11,500 12,100 2
Barking and Dagenham ,40 9,500 3 100 1,500 11 19 3 179 0 19 21 , 22 2
Newham ,90 9,200 8 200 3,600 11 18 0 268 0 29 31 , 32 2
Barnet 334,200 5,400 4 000 8,600 12 15 9 37 38 , 39 1
Southwark ,80 2,100 4 100 2,900 8 16 9 288 0 31 33 , 34 1
Islington ,90 7,000 7 00 7,500 7 12 7 211 0 22 23 ,4 24 1
Havering ,50 7,200 1 600 7,700 5 12 4 234 0 24 26 , 26 1
Wandsworth ,200 7,800 3 00 4,100 5 10 3 303 31 33 ,3 34 1
Lambeth ,500 9,900 2 000 4,400 5 9 3 303 31 33 , 34 1
Hackney ,200 8,900 7 900 4,200 6 10 3 234 24 25 , 26 1
Lewisham ,900 2,000 9 700 6,200 6 9 1 274 29 29 , 30 1
Hammersmith & Fulham ,200 1,000 7 700 1,900 4 8 0 183 19 19 , 20 1
Waltham Fores ,700 3,800 9 900 3,500 5 7 9 t 232 24 24 , 25
Brent 283,000 6,400 3 500 5,800 5 7 8 29 30 , 30
Westminster ,100 1,400 6 500 8,600 5 7 8 221 23 23 , 23
Croydon ,000 0,700 8 900 4,000 4 6 8 347 36 36 , 37
Haringey ,200 2,500 6 200 7,600 6 7 8 239 25 25 , 25
Ealing 322,000 3,400 9 700 6,700 4 5 8 33 33 , 34
Camden ,200 0,000 4 900 8,900 3 6 7 213 22 22 , 22
Kensington & Chelsea 172,200 176,200 183,300 184,700 2 7 6
Kingston upon Thames 157,100 162,600 165,700 167,500 3 7 5
Hillingdon ,90 6,20 9 500 3,300 4 5 7 265 0 27 0 27 , 28
Redbridge ,20 0,20 4 600 5,200 3 5 5 261 0 27 0 27 , 27
Hounslow ,70 4,10 6 700 9,100 2 3 4 239 0 24 0 24 , 24
Bromley ,400 2,900 6 600 7,800 2 3 4 306 31 31 , 31
Harrow ,800 9,000 9 900 1,300 2 3 3 223 22 22 , 23
Bexley 220,200 222,000 224,500 227,400 1 2 3
Richmond upon Thames 188,500 192,400 193,700 194,000 2 3 3
Enfield 296,300 300,100 303,500 304,700 1 2 3
Merton 200,700 204,300 205,400 206,300 2 2 3
Sutton 188,000 189,600 189,700 190,000 1 1 1

Inner Boroughs 3,178,200 3,382,500 3,535,000 3,622,900 6 11 14
Outer Boroughs 4,722,300 4,932,500 5,046,800 5,122,700 4 7 8
Greater London 7,900,500 8,314,900 8,581,900 8,745,600 5 9 11
Source: Greater London Authority: 2010 Round Demographic Projections
(SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)


Appendices Page 34

B6 GLA population projections for Tower Hamlets, by age, 2011-2026
Age bands
0-15 4 2 35-4 0-64


All
persons 16-2 5-34 9 5 65+
Age
Aged
50 and
16-64


r ove
2011 254,200 51,500 35,200 55 ,10 0 ,40 42,400 69,500 ,600 24 0 18,30 184 0
2012 260,300 52,700 35,200 57 ,90 0 ,00 43,400 71,600 ,400 24 0 18,50 189 0
2013 266,200 53,800 35,300 59, ,800 0 1 ,60 44,500 73,400 100 25 18,80 93 0
2014 272,100 55,100 35,400 75,000 61 ,70 0 ,10 45,700 ,100 26 0 19,00 198 0
2015 278,000 56,300 35,400 63 ,70 0 ,40 46,900 76,200 ,100 27 0 19,30 202 0
2016 283,800 57,600 35,300 65 ,80 0 ,70 48,400 77,400 ,100 28 0 19,60 206 0
2017 289,700 58,900 35,300 67 ,00 0 2 ,90 49,900 78,700 ,000 30 0 19,90 10 0
2018 295,500 60,000 35,400 68 ,10 0 2 ,10 51,500 79,600 ,900 31 0 20,40 15 0
2019 301,200 61,100 35,700 71 ,30 0 2 ,30 53,200 80,300 ,000 32 0 20,80 19 0
2020 306,900 62,200 36,100 73 ,60 0 223,400 54,900 80,600 ,100 33 0 21,30
2021 312,400 63,200 36,400 75 ,90 0 2 ,30 56,800 80,800 ,100 34 0 21,90 27 0
2022 315,300 63,700 36,500 76 ,00 0 229,100 58,400 80,300 ,300 36 0 22,40
2023 318,000 64,10 0 77 ,10 0 231,000 60,100 0 36,70 79,700 ,500 37 0 22,90
2024 320,800 64,500 37,000 78 ,20 0 232,800 61,700 79,100 ,500 38 0 23,50
2025 323,500 64,800 37,400 79 ,20 0 234,600 63,300 78,500 ,500 39 0 24,10
2026 326,100 65,100 37,900 80 ,20 0 236,300 64,900 77,700 ,500 40 0 24,70

Population growth - numbe rs
2011-16 29,600 6,00 0 9 ,70 0 ,200 6,000 0 10 7,900 ,500 4 0 1,30 22
2011-21 58,200 11,70 0 19 ,90 0 ,900 14,500 0 1,20 11,300 ,500 10 0 3,60 42
2011-26 71,900 13,60 0 24 ,10 0 ,800 22,500 0 2,80 8,200 ,800 16 0 6,50 51

Population growth - percen ng tage cha e
2011-16 12 1 0 1 7 12 2 11 17 9 14
2011-21 23 2 3 4 0 23 3 16 35 5 2 34
2011-26 28 2 8 6 5 28 6 12 45 7 3 53

Population composition (pe o pu ling h ge g up) rcentage f total po lation fal into eac a ro
2011 100 2 7 73 0 14 27 22 9 17
2016 100 2 7 3 20 1 27 23 10 7 17
2021 100 2 7 20 1 26 24 11 73 18
2026 100 2 8 72 20 1 24 25 12 20
Source: Greater London Autho o a io nario lease rity: 2010 R und Demogr phic Project ns (SHLAA sce , re d
February 2011)


Further information
Further information
Corporate Research Unit
This Briefing was produced by the Councils Corporate Research Unit (CRU), which is
based in the Chief Executives Directorate. Research briefings provide timely and in-depth
analysis of data about Tower Hamlets and are designed to improve the use and sharing of
data across the Partnership.

Recent briefings include:
Annual Residents Survey Results 2010-11 (Research Briefing 2011/02)
Indices of Deprivation 2010 (Research Briefing 2011/03)
Welfare Reform Briefing (Research Briefing 2011/01)
Child Benefit Key Facts (Research Briefing 2010/05)
Population data: a technical guide (Research Briefing 2010/03)
A profile of residents by language (Research Briefing 2010/02)

These briefings can be downloaded on the LBTH intranet:
http://towernet/Intranet/staff_services/business_planning/corporate_policy/corporate_resear
ch_briefings.aspx


Contact details for the Corporate Research Unit are:

Shanara Matin Partnership Information Manager 020 7364 4548
J uanita Haynes Senior Research Officer 020 7364 4238
Lorna Spence Research Officer 020 7364 4014
Matthias Schneppel Research Officer 020 7364 1650
Ashraf Ali Research Officer 020 7364 0528
Ahea Hannan Research Officer 020 7364 2239

The CRU contact for enquiries relating to this briefing is: Lorna Spence.