Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
DECEMBER 2008
“
The ‘adaptation is local’ mantra is no longer valid. Climate impacts are pervasive, inevitably
crossing geographic and political boundaries. And they will be severe. Some top scientists now
say we should prepare for a rise in global mean surface temperature of 4 °C – even though most
impact and adaptation research is based on 2 °C. What will this mean for adaptation?
We need to move far beyond measures like National Adaptation Plans of Action. The
ramifications of this new scenario are much more than physical and biological: there are
”
significant socioeconomic and geopolitical implications on a par with those of mitigation.
Adaptation must be understood, negotiated and financed in that light.
In 1992, adaptation was a lower priority than mitigation In this context, adaptation cannot be contained within
because it was assumed that the impacts of climate national boundaries: the impacts of climate change
change would arise slowly over time and could be dealt will be serious and widespread, demanding adaptive
with piecemeal, as they emerged. It was also assumed measures to match. In essence, this strategic approach
that adaptation was largely local and could thus be to adaptation will be a radical departure from short-term,
managed at national level or lower, with some financial project-oriented methods such as National Adaptation
assistance for the most vulnerable countries. Programmes of Action (NAPAs). Two examples, from
Bangladesh and Canada, show the need for the long view
Both these assumptions are now recognised as too
and a genuinely collaborative strategic approach.
limited. Climate change has been swifter than initially
anticipated. Impacts are already being observed,
Before the deluge: Bangladeshi plans
while the projections imply a significantly more rapid
The recently issued Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy
emergence of enhanced climate risks.
and Action Plan 2008 (BCCSAP), covering 2009-2018,
Moreover, progress in reducing emissions of carbon marks a substantial achievement in adaptation planning.
Ian Burton is an dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and stabilising It advances well beyond the country’s NAPA, and covers
IIED Visiting Fellow
concentrations, has been minimal. The planet now both mitigation and adaptation.
and co-chair of
the Ontario Expert faces the reality of substantial and no longer avoidable
The BCCSAP provides for the incorporation of climate
Advisory Panel on climate change. Most global impact and adaptation
Climate Change risks into development activities, and proposes relevant
research is predicated on a global mean surface
Adaptation. programmes and projects. A range of ministries and
temperature increase of plus 2 degrees Celsius. But
agencies are to implement these, facilitated by a
two top UK scientists are among those questioning
Bangladesh Ministry of Environment and Forests. 2008. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008.
MoEF, Dhaka, Bangladesh. n Lemmen, D.S., Warren, F.J., Lacroix, J., and Bush, E. (eds) 2008. From Impacts
to Adaptation: Canada in a changing climate 2007. Government of Canada, Ottawa. n Randerson, J. 7 August
2008. Climate change: prepare for global temperature rise of 4C, warns top scientist. See www.guardian.co.uk/
environment/2008/aug/06/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange. n Refugee Studies Centre. 31 October 2008.
International
International
Forced Migration Review special issue: Climate Change and Displacement. University of Oxford. See www.fmreview.org. Institute for
Environment
Institute forand
For more information and pdf: www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=17046IIED Development
Environment and
Development