Uniqueness: Kerry is heavily investing in the Ukraine crisis and

sincerely believes that it could escalate

Lee and Solomon, 3/12/14 (thats yesterday)

The U.S. launched a last-ditch effort Wednesday to avert a potentially costly
diplomatic crisis with Moscow ahead of a vote Sunday in Crimea on whether the
region should leave Ukraine and return to Russia. Top Obama administration
officials sought to ramp up the pressure on Moscow even as they braced for a
possible diplomatic failure. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russia "may
well" end up annexing the restive region, and began to focus on steps Moscow
could take to slow the process. The mood in Washington had an 11th-hour feel.
Mr. Kerry planned a hasty diplomatic trip to London to meet his Russian
counterpart on Fridaytwo days before the fateful referendumwhile the
administration's warnings took on an even more dire tone. Mr. Kerry told
lawmakers that if Russia made the wrong decisions and the West turned to
punitive sanctions, things could "get ugly fast" and "in multiple directions.''

Link: The plan would shift Kerrys focus from the terse situation in
Ukraine, which is one that requires huge amounts of diplomatic
capital
BBC 3/12/14 (thats yesterday as well)

The US secretary of state has rejected an offer of talks with President Vladimir
Putin until Russia engages with US proposals on Ukraine's crisis. John Kerry told
his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov that Moscow's military intervention in
Crimea had made any negotiations extremely difficult. US officials say there will
be little to discuss if the referendum on whether Crimea should join Russia goes
ahead.

Brink: A lack of involvement from Kerry will lead to civil war in the
Ukraine, a situation that favors terroristic activity
Lally, 3/11 (thats Tuesday)

Ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych on Tuesday backed up Russias
version of the situation in his country, saying a junta in Kiev had provoked
Crimea to secede by spreading lawlessness and refusing to protect civilians from
violence.The cities are being patrolled by masked gunmen, Yanukovych said in
a statement to the press in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. This
new government is firing officers from the army, those officers who dont want
lawlessness committed against civilians. They want civil war to break out.
Yanukovych, who read from a statement in Russian and did not take questions,
accused the West and the United States of backing fascists in Ukraine
another regular allegation being made by Russian authorities. There is a gang of
ultranationalists and fascists operating the government, he said. I would like to
ask those who cover for these dark forces in the West: Are you blind? Have you
forgotten what fascism is?
Terrorists can get nukes- they exploit security gaps and have incentive
Brill and Luongo 12 (KENNETH C. BRILL and KENNETH N. LUONGO, March 15,
2012, Kenneth C. Brill is a former U.S. ambassador to the I.A.E.A.Kenneth N. Luongo
is president of the Partnership for Global Security. Both are members of the Fissile
Material Working Group, a nonpartisan nongovernmental organization. Nuclear
Terrorism: A Clear Danger
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/16/opinion/nuclear-terrorism-a-clear-
danger.html?_r=0 MB )
Terrorists exploit gaps in security. The current global regime for protecting the
nuclear materials that terrorists desire for their ultimate weapon is far from
seamless. It is based largely on unaccountable, voluntary arrangements that are
inconsistent across borders. Its weak links make it dangerous and inadequate to
prevent nuclear terrorism. Later this month in Seoul, the more than 50 world leaders who will gather for the
second Nuclear Security Summit need to seize the opportunity to start developing an accountable regime to prevent nuclear
terrorism. There is a consensus among international leaders that the threat of nuclear terrorism is real, not a
Hollywood confection. President Obama, the leaders of 46 other nations, the heads of the
International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations, and numerous experts
have called nuclear terrorism one of the most serious threats to global security and
stability. It is also preventable with more aggressive action. At least four terrorist
groups, including Al Qaeda, have demonstrated interest in using a nuclear device.
These groups operate in or near states with histories of questionable nuclear security
practices. Terrorists do not need to steal a nuclear weapon. It is quite possible to make an
improvised nuclear device from highly enriched uranium or plutonium being used
for civilian purposes. And there is a black market in such material. There have been 18
confirmed thefts or loss of weapons-usable nuclear material . In 2011, the Moldovan police
broke up part of a smuggling ring attempting to sell highly enriched uranium; one
member is thought to remain at large with a kilogram of this material. A terrorist
nuclear explosion could kill hundreds of thousands, create billions of dollars in
damages and undermine the global economy. Former Secretary General Kofi Annan of the United Nations
said that an act of nuclear terrorism would thrust tens of millions of people into dire
poverty and create a second death toll throughout the developing world. Surely after
such an event, global leaders would produce a strong global system to ensure nuclear security. There is no reason to wait for a
catastrophe to build such a system. The conventional wisdom is that domestic regulations, U.N. Security Council resolutions, G-
8 initiatives, I.A.E.A. activities and other voluntary efforts will prevent nuclear terrorism. But existing global
arrangements for nuclear security lack uniformity and coherence.

Impact: Nuclear terrorism escalates to global nuclear war, ensures extinction
Morgan 09

In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question Is
Nuclear War Inevitable?? [10].4 In Section 1, Moore points out what most
terrorists obviously already know about the nuclear tensions between powerful
countries. No doubt, theyve figured out that the best way to escalate these
tensions into nuclear war is to set off a nuclear exchange . As Moore points
out, all that militant terrorists would have to do is get their hands on one
small nuclear bomb and explode it on either Moscow or Israel. Because of
the Russian dead hand system, where regional nuclear commanders
would be given full powers should Moscow be destroyed, it is likely that any
attack would be blamed on the United States [10]. Israeli leaders and
Zionist supporters have, likewise, stated for years that if Israel were to suffer a
nuclear attack , whether from terrorists or a nation state , it would retaliate
with the suicidal Samson option against all major Muslim cities in the
Middle East . Furthermore, the Israeli Samson option would also include
attacks on Russia and even anti-Semitic European cities [10]. In that
case, of course, Russia would retaliate, and the U.S. would then retaliate
against Russia. China would probably be involved as well , as thousands, if
not[u] tens of thousands, of nuclear warheads, many of them much more
powerful than those used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, would rain upon most of
the major cities in the Northern Hemisphere. Afterwards[u/], for years to come,
[u]massive radioactive clouds would drift throughout the Earth in the nuclear
fallout, bringing death or else radiation disease that would be genetically
transmitted to future generations in a nuclear winter that could last as long as a
100 years, taking a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as
well.[u/]