***IMPACT DEFENSE

a lot of the impacts (i.e. warming hegemon! econom!" were not wor#e$ on %eca&se there is
s&fficient $efense in other files
Colin Gahungu
Danny Hensel
Ali Jamal
Morgan Murphy
Melanie Johnson
AI' P())*TI(N
Alt Ca&ses
Too man! alt ca&ses to sol+e , can-t to&ch the .&als of this car$
/roo# et al 0 (Robert D., MD, Associate Professor at the Department of nternal Me!icine, "ni#ersity of
Michigan $A%D &arry A. 'ran(lin, PhD, Director of the Car!iac Rehabilitation Program an! )*ercise
+aboratories, ,illiam &eaumont Hospital, Professor of Physiology, ,ayne -tate "ni#ersity, -chool of
Me!icine, $A%D ,ayne Cascio, MD, 'ormer Director of Car!io#ascular Research at the Center for
)n#ironmental Me!icine, Asthma an! +ung &iology at "%C Chapel Hill, 'ormer Me!ical Director of the
Clinical )lectrocar!iography +aboratory at the "ni#ersity of %orth Carolina Hospitals, $A%D .uling Hong,
MD, PhD, Associate Director for -cience, Di#ision for Heart Disease an! -tro(e Pre#ention, %ational nstitutes
of Health, $A%D George Ho/ar!, PhD, Department of &iostatistics, -chool of Public Health, "ni#ersity of
Alabama0&irmingham, $A%D Michael +ipsett, MD, Chief of the )n#ironmental Health n#estigations &ranch,
California Department of Public Health, $A%D Russell +uep(er, MD, Mayo Professor of Public Health, Di#ision
of )pi!emiology an! Community Health, -chool of Public Health, "ni#ersity of Minnesota, $A%D Murray
Mittleman, MD, -cD, Associate Professor in the Department of )pi!emiology, -chool of Public Health,
Har#ar! "ni#ersity, $A%D Jonathan -amet, MD, foun!ing !irector of the "-C nstitute for Global Health,
'lora +. 1hornton Chair of the Department of Pre#enti#e Me!icine of the 2ec( -chool of Me!icine, "ni#ersity
of -outhern California, $A%D -i!ney C. -mith Jr, MD, professor of me!icine an! !irector of the Aca!emic
Center for Car!io#ascular Disease, "ni#ersity of %orth Carolina, $A%D ra 1ager, MD, Professor of
)pi!emiology, -chool of Public Health, Di#ision of )pi!emiology, "ni#ersity of California &er(eley, June 3,
4556, 7Air Pollution an! Car!io#ascular Disease,8 American Heart Association,
http9::circ.aha;ournals.org:content:35<:43:4=>>.full, Hensel?
A brief !escription of se#eral in!i#i!ual air pollutants is pro#i!e! first for bac(groun!. A complete !iscussion is beyon! the scope of this statement, an!
intereste! rea!ers may fin! a more comprehensi#e re#ie/ on this sub;ect else/here.4= Particulate Matter Airborne PM consists of a heterogeneous
mi*ture of soli! an! li@ui! particles suspen!e! in air, continually #arying in siAe an! chemical composition in space an! time ('igure 3?. Primary
particles are emitte! !irectly into the atmosphere, such as !iesel soot, /hereas secon!ary particles are create! through physicochemical transformation
of gases, such as nitrate an! sulfate formation from gaseous nitric aci! an! sulfur !io*i!e (-B4?, respecti#ely. The n&mero&s natural an!
anthropogenic so&rces of PM inclu!e motor #ehicle emissions, tire fragmentation an! resuspension of roa! !ust,
po/er generation an! other in!ustrial combustion, smelting an! other metal processing, agriculture,
construction an! !emolition acti#ities, resi!ential /oo! burning, /in!blo/n soil, pollens an! mol!s, forest
fires an! combustion of agricultural !ebris, #olcanic emissions, an! sea spray. Although there are thousan!s of chemicals
that ha#e been !etecte! in PM in !ifferent locations, some of the more common constituents inclu!e nitrates, sulfates, elemental an! organic carbon,
organic compoun!s (eg, polycyclic aromatic hy!rocarbons?, biological compoun!s (eg, en!oto*in, cell fragments?, an! a #ariety of metals (eg, iron,
copper, nic(el, Ainc, an! #ana!ium?.
)ots of alt ca&ses
'ani et al 11 (&ina, Department of )ngineering Chemistry an! )n#ironmental )ngineering, Poornima
College of )ngineering, $A%D "pma -ingh, -chool of Applie! -cience, Gautam &u!!ha "ni#ersity, $A%D RaaA
Mahesh/ari, Department of Chemistry, "ni#ersity of Ra;asthan, June 4533, 7Menace of Air Pollution
,orl!/i!e,8 A!#ances in &ioresearch, Col. 4 D3E, http9::///.soeagra.com:abrF#ol44533:3.p!f, Hensel?
%atural sources G D&st from natural sources , usually large areas of lan! /ith little or no #egetation G Methane , emitte! by
the !igestion of foo! by animals, for e*ample cattle G 'a$on gas from ra$ioacti+e $eca! /ithin the )arthHs
crust. Ra!on is a colorless, o!orless, naturally occurring, ra!ioacti#e noble gas that is forme! from the !ecay of ra!ium. t is consi!ere! to be
a health haAar!. Ra!on gas from natural sources can accumulate in buil!ings, especially in confine! areas such as the
basement an! it is the secon! most fre@uent cause of lung cancer, after cigarette smo(ing G Smo#e an! car%on
mono2i$e from /il!fires G 3egetation, in some regions, emits en#ironmentally significant amounts of CBCs on
/armer !ays. 1hese CBCs react /ith primary anthropogenic pollutantsIspecifically, %B*, -B4, an! anthropogenic organic
carbon compoun!sIto pro!uce a seasonal haAe of secon!ary pollutants. D=E G 3olcanic acti+it! , /hich pro!uce
sulfur, chlorine, an! ash particulates

Ine+ita%le
Air poll&tion-s ine+ita%le , other co&ntries- poll&tion cancels o&t an! impro+ement we ma#e
4atson 56 (1raci 0 "-A 1o!ay staff /riter, citing Da#i! Parrish, %ational Bceanic an! Atmospheric
A!ministration, citing Daniel Jacob, Casco McCoy 'amily Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry an!
)n#ironmental )ngineering, Center for the )n#ironment, Har#ar! "ni#ersity, citing Da#i! -treets,
en#ironmental scientist at Argonne %ational +aboratory, citing Daniel Jaffe, Professor of Atmospheric an!
)n#ironmental Chemistry at the "ni#ersity of ,ashingtonJ&othell, March 36, 455>, 7Air pollution from other
countries !rifts into "-A,8 "-A 1o!ay, http9::///.usato!ay.com:ne/s:nation:455>J5KJ3KJpollutionJF*.htm,
Hensel?
Americans !ri#e importe! cars, /ear importe! clothes an! chug importe! beers. %o/ scientists are !isco#ering another, less /elcome import into the
"-A9 air pollution. Mercury from China, !ust from Africa, smog from Me*ico I all of it !rifts freely across ".-. bor!ers
an! contaminates the air millions of Americans breathe, accor!ing to recent research from Har#ar! "ni#ersity, the
"ni#ersity of ,ashington an! many other institutions /here scientists are stu!ying air pollution. 1here are no boun!aries
in the s(y to stop such pollution, no &or!er Patrol agents to capture it. Pollution /afting into the "-A accounts for K5L of
the nationHs oAone, an important component of smog, says researcher Da#i! Parrish of the %ational Bceanic an! Atmospheric A!ministration. &y
the year 4545, Har#ar! "ni#ersityHs Daniel Jacob says, importe! pollution /ill be the primary factor !egra!ing #isibility in our
national par(s. ,hile the "nite! -tates is cutting its o/n emissions, some nations, especially China, are belching out
more an! more !irty air. As a result, o+erseas poll&tion coul! partly cancel o&t impro+ements in *.S. air
.&alit! that ha#e cost billions of !ollars. Among the efforts that coul! be un!ermine!9 the )n#ironmental Protection AgencyHs ne/ !ri#e to cut po/er
plantsH emissions of oAoneJforming chemicals an! particle pollution, spec(s of chemicals that !amage health. 1he )PA finaliAe! the rule 1hurs!ay. 1he
)PA /ill announce limits 1ues!ay on mercury emitte! by ".-. po/er plants. &ut the agency estimates that 65L of the mercury that
sin(s out of the air an! lan!s in the "-A comes from o#erseas. MA number of things are getting here that /eHre /orrie! about,M
says Da#i! -treets, an en#ironmental scientist at Argonne %ational +aboratory in Chicago. M-ome of these (pollutants? are not easy to
control. ... I $on7t e2pect things to get %etter in the ne*t 35 years or so, an! some things /ill get /orse.M Almost e#ery place
in the "-A has suffere! from the effects of importe! air pollution, at least occasionally. -ome of the most serious impacts9 N Mercury emitte! by po/er
plants an! factories in China, 2orea an! other parts of Asia /afts o#er to the "-A an! settles into the nationHs la(es an! streams, /here it contributes to
pollution that ma(es fish unsafe to eat. N Dust from AfricaHs -ahara Desert blo/s /est across the Atlantic Bcean an! helps raise particle le#els abo#e
fe!eral health stan!ar!s in Miami an! other -outhern cities. N HaAe an! oAone from factories, po/er plants an! fires in Asia an! Me*ico infiltrate
/il!erness spots such as CaliforniaHs -e@uoia %ational Par( an! 1e*asH &ig &en! %ational Par(, clou!ing #ie/s an! ma(ing the air less healthy.
-cientists /ho stu!y air @uality ha#e long (no/n that air pollution seeps into the "-A from abroa!. &ut only recently ha#e they realiAe! that
the problem has an enormo&s reach I an i!ea that at first met /ith resistance. MA lot of scientists /ere s(eptical,M says Daniel Jaffe of
the "ni#ersity of ,ashington at &othell, recalling the reaction to his early fin!ings. M1here /as a lot of, HBh, come on no/.H M &ut aerial an!
groun!Jbase! sensors that !etecte! the chemical fingerprints of pollutants floating across oceans helpe! erase !oubts. -o !i!
ne/ satellites that in the last 35 years ga#e scientists a bir!HsJeye #ie/ of clou!s of pollution !rifting from continent to
continent.
No E2tinction
Air poll&tion $oesn-t ca&se e2tinction , empirics
)om%org 51 (&;orn, a!;unct professor at the Copenhagen &usiness -chool, !irector of the Copenhagen
Consensus Centre, former !irector of the )n#ironmental Assessment nstitute in Copenhagen, August 36, 4553,
71a(e a !eep breath...air @uality is getting better,8 1he Guar!ian,
http9::///.guar!ian.co.u(:en#ironment:4553:aug:3>:physicalsciences.global/arming, Hensel?
Bf all the !ifferent types of pollution affecting human health, by far the most important is air pollution. Bf all the ma;or "-
)n#ironmental Protection Agency statute areas (air, /ater, pestici!es, conser#ation, !rin(ing /ater, to*ic control, liability?, an! e#en by the agencyHs o/n
rec(oning, O=J<=L of all social benefits stem from the regulation of air pollution. ,e often assume that air pollution is a mo!ern phenomenon, an! that
it has got /orse in recent times. Ho/e#er, air pollution has been a ma8or n&isance for most of ci+ilisation , an! the air
of the /estern /orl! has not been as clean as it is no/ for a long time. n ancient Rome, the statesman -eneca complaine!
about Mthe stin(, soot an! hea#y airM in the city. n 34>P, /hen Henry Hs /ife #isite! %ottingham, she foun! the stench of smo(e from coal burning so
intolerable that she left for fear of her life, an! in 34O> +on!onHs air /as so pollute! that )!/ar! establishe! the /orl!Hs first air pollution commission.
-helley /rote9 MHell must be much li(e +on!on, a smo(y an! populous city.M 'or +on!on, the conse@uences /ere !ire. n the 3Oth century it ha! 45 foggy
!ays a year, but this ha! increase! to almost =5 by the en! of the 3<th century9 this meant that +on!on got 65L less sunshine than the surroun!ing
to/ns, an! the number of thun!erstorms !ouble! in +on!on from the earlyJ3Oth to the lateJ3<th century. ,e ha#e !ata for air pollution in +on!on since
3>O>, estimate! from coal imports till 3<K> >an! a!;uste! to measure! pollution from the 3<45s till to!ay. 1his sho/s ho/ le+els of smo#e
an$ s&lph&r poll&tion increase$ $ramaticall! o+er the 955 !ears from 3>O>, reaching a ma*imum in
the late 3<th century , only to ha#e !roppe! e#en faster e#er since, such that the le#els of the 3<O5s an! 3<<5s /ere
belo/ the le#els of the late 3=th century. An! !espite increasing traffic, particulate emissions in the "2 are
e*pecte! to !ecrease o#er the ne*t 35 years by K5L. -mo(e an! particles are probably by far the most !angerous
pollutant, an! +on!onHs air has not been so free of them since the mi!!le ages.
It $oesn-t e+en ca&se $eath:at all:
Schwart; 59 (Joel, a!;unct scholar at the Competiti#e )nterprise nstitute, April 455K, 7Particulate Air
Pollution9 ,eighing the Ris(s,8 Competiti#e )nterprise nstitute, http9::cei.org:sites:!efault:files:Joel
L45-ch/artAL45JL45ParticulateL45AirL45PollutionL45,eighingL45theL45Ris(s.p!f, Hensel?
%onetheless, both the &ush A!ministration an! congressional Democrats ha#e propose! s/eeping ne/ measures to further crac( !o/n
on po/er plant emissions. 1he A!ministrationQs Clear -(ies nitiati#e an! a more stringent Democratic alternati#e are largely ;ustifie! by claims that
current le#els of particulate matter (PM? pose a serious public health threat. -upporters of these bills promise substantial benefits from a!!itional PM
re!uctions. %e#ertheless, the benefit claims for PM re!uctions rest on a wea# fo&n$ation . )PA base! its ne/ annual fine PM
(PM4.>? stan!ar! on a stu!y (no/n as the American Cancer -ociety (AC-? stu!y of PM an! mortality, /hich assesse! the association
bet/een the ris( of !eath bet/een 3<O4 an! 3<<O /ith PM4.> le#els in !oAens of American cities. Although the AC- stu!y reporte! an
association bet/een PM an! mortality, some o!! features of the AC- results suggest that PM is not the c&lprit . 'or e*ample,
accor!ing to the AC- results, PM increase! mortality in men, but not /omenR in those /ith no more than a high school
!egree, but not those /ith at least some college e!ucationR in former smo(ers, but not currentJ or ne#erJ
smo(ersR an! in those /ho sai! they /ere mo!erately acti#e, but not those /ho sai! they /ere #ery acti#e or
se!entary. 1hese o!! #ariations in the relationship bet/een PM4.> an! mortality seem %iologicall!
impla&si%le. )#en more surprising, the AC- stu!y reporte! that higher PM4.> le#els /ere not associate! /ith an
increase! ris( of mortality !ue to respiratory !iseaseR a surprising fin!ing, gi#en that PM /oul! be e*pecte! to e*ert its effects
through the respiratory system. )PA also ignore! the results of another epi!emiologic stu!y that foun! no effect of
PM4.> on mortalit! in a cohort of #eterans /ith high bloo! pressure, e#en though this relati#ely unhealthy cohort shoul! ha#e been more
susceptible to the effects of pollution than the general population. The e+i$ence therefore suggests that the e*isting annual
stan!ar! for PM4.> is unnecessarily stringent. Attaining the stan!ar! /ill be e*pensi#e, but is &nli#el! to impro+e
p&%lic health.
AI' P(4E'
Doesn-t Sol+e Terror
Nope
4S< 1= (,all -treet Journal, April K5, 4534, 7Airpo/er Alone ,onHt ,in 1errorism ,ar,8
http9::online./s;.com:article:-&355536465>4P54K56O33K56>PPK=O4>KPOO=KK5=6.html, AJ?
Gen. John Michael +ohHs proposal to Mstop terrorists /ith more airpo/erM (+etters, April 4=? is &nrealistic an$ simplistic .
He argues that airpo/er alone can achie#e significant national security an! military ob;ecti#es. Counterterrorism
(C1? operations are not sol#e! from a coc(pit at 45,555 feet, nor from a !rone /hose operator sits thousan!s of
miles a/ay. 1hey in#ol#e comple* coor!ination an! informationJsharing /ith our allies an! regional partners,
specially traine! groun!Jbase! C1 operators an! a host of legal authorities an! specific rules of engagement. 1he
Mthousan!s of groun! forcesM /hom Gen. +oh mista(enly belie#es are con!ucting C1 operations are in reality con!ucting
counterJinsurgency operations, /hich are significantly !ifferent from C1 operations. Proposing that
airpower alone can $efeat terrorism is a $angero&s proposition that implies C1 can be e*ecute!
cheaply an! from afar, /hen in reality itHs a !irty, !angerous an! timeJconsuming business. Airpo/er can (an!
!oes? certainly support comple* C1 operations, but as one facet of the o#erall approach. Gen. +ohHs belief in the precision,
efficacy an! economy of airpo/er is not s&pporte$ %! the mass of historical or c&rrent e+i$ence .
Despite impressi#e successes against al Sae!a lea!ers, suici!e bombers continue to stri(e effecti#ely in Afghanistan, Pa(istan an! other Mi!!le )ast
locations. .es, mo!ern !rone aircraft pro#i!e a highly effecti#e means of con!ucting targete! assassinations, but
such selecti#e (illing canHt !isable terrorist organiAations li(e the 1aliban or Hamas that are !eeply embe!!e!
/ithin a supporti#e host society.
>igh Now
Air s&premac! is &nchallenge$
4eit; 11 (Richar!, -enior 'ello/ an! Director of the Center for PoliticalJMilitary Analysis, Hu!son nstitute,
-eptember 4, 4533, 7".-. Air -uperiority Remains -afe,8 China "- 'ocus,
http9::///.chinausfocus.com:sli!er:uJsJairJsuperiorityJremainsJsafe:, AJ?
n any case, the PentagonQs report on the Chinese military ma(es clear that ChinaQs air force an! !efense aerospace sector still lags
consi$era%l! %ehin$ that of the *nite! States. Accor!ing to the ".-. Department of Defense, the PeopleQs +iberation Army Air
'orce (P+AA'? has ma!e consi!erable progress in its efforts to e*pan! its role from its tra!itional focus on
homelan! air !efense to encompass e*traJterritorial missions such as antiJaccess an! airJ!enial operations
!esigne! to pre#ent the ".-. military from inter#ening in battles along ChinaQs periphery. 1he P+AA' has also
!emonstrate! a limite! ability to operate e#en further from China, at least in terms of participating in military e*ercises in
Central Asia an! 1ur(ey last year or helping to e#acuate Chinese nationals from the Mi!!le )ast. .et, most Chinese military aircrafts are
at least one generation %ehin$ those a#ailable to the " nite! -tates. 1he P+AQs air !efense systems comprise
mostly -o#ietJera surfaceJtoJair missile launchers purchase! from Russia (such as the -AJ35 an! -AJ45 PM"3:PM"4? an!
Chinese systems base! on these -JK55 #airants (e.g., the HSJ<?. 1he P+AA'Qs best fighter planes, li(e those in the P+A
%a#yQs air component, also originate from -o#ietJera technology (e.g., -uJ4P:'J33, -uJK5 #ariants, an! the 'J35?, /hile the P+AA'Qs longJ
range bomber force relies on e#en more obsolete -o#iet technology. ChinaQs unmanne! aerial #ehicles an! early /arning aircraft
also ha#e inferior e.&ipment compare! to those in the %A1B or Russian fleets . B#erall, the Pentagon assesses
only about oneJ@uarter of ChinaQs military aircraft as being mo!ern combat planes e@ui#alent to /hat one fin!s
in ,estern fleets. As for the Cheng!u JJ45, the PentagonQs China military po/er report says that 7the Defense Department !oes not
e*pect the JJ45 to achie#e an effecti#e operational capability prior to 453O.8 1he report ac(no/le!ges that the JJ45 7/ill
e#entually gi#e the P+A Air 'orce a platform capable of long range, penetrating stri(es into comple* air !efense en#ironments.8 &ut this #ery language
suggests that the JJ45 /ill ser#e primarily as a tactical stri(e plane, such as the original ".-. 'J33P %ightHa/( that initiate! the air campaigns against
ra@ an! in 2oso#o, rather than as a fighter that /ill compete /ith the latest ".-. stealth planes, the 'J44 an! 'JK>, for air superiority. n this role, the
plane /ill simply complement ChinaQs offensi#e surfaceJtoJsurface missiles by 7impro#eDingE the P+AHs ability
to stri(e regional air bases, logistical facilities, an! other groun!Jbase! infrastructure.8 'urthermore, the report
shares the ambiguous ;u!gment of many analysts regar!ing /hether the JJ45 really is a fifthJgeneration
aircraft on par /ith these ".-. planes. t states that the JJ45 Mhighlights ChinaHs ambition to pro!uce a fighter
aircraft that incorporates stealth attributes, a!#ance! a#ionics, an! superJcruise capable engines o#er the ne*t
se#eral years.MDitalics a!!e!E 1he report further notes that 7China faces se+eral h&r$les as it mo+es towar$ <?=5
pro$&ction , inclu!ing the mastery of high performance ;et engine pro!uction .8 n!ee!, although the impro#ing
@uality of ChinaQs !efense in!ustry has resulte! in the PRCQs en!ing its pre#ious billionJ!ollar annual
purchases of -o#ietJera /eapons from the Russian 'e!eration, China still must use Russian engines for its
most a!#ance! /arplanes.
Air power is high an$ ca&ses ci+ilian cas&alties , Ira. an$ Afghanistan
4ashington Post 5@ (Josh ,hite 0 staff /riter, January 3P, 455O, 7".-. &oosts ts "se of Airstri(es in
ra@,8 http9::///./ashingtonpost.com:/pJ!yn:content:article:455O:53:3=:AR455O533=5636O.html, AJ?
1he ".-. military con!ucte! more than fi#e times as many airstri(es in ra@ last year as it !i! in 455=, targeting alJ
Sae!a safe houses, insurgent bombma(ing facilities an! /eapons stoc(piles in an aggressi#e strategy aime$ at s&pporting the *.S.
troop increase %! o+erwhelming enemies with air power. 1op comman!ers sai! that better intelligenceJgathering
allo/s them to i!entify an! hit e*tremist stronghol!s /ith bombs an! missiles, an! they pre!icte! that e*tensi#e airstri#es will
contin&e this !ear as the " nite! -tates see(s to flush insurgents out of ha#ens in an! aroun! &agh!a! an! to the north in
Diyala pro#ince. 1he ".-.Jle! coalition !roppe! 3,66P bombs on ra@ last year, an a#erage of nearly four a !ay, compare! /ith 44<
bombs, or about four each /ee(, in 455=. M1he core reason /hy /e see the increase in stri(es is the offensi#e strategy ta(en
by General DDa#i! H.E Petraeus,M sai! Air 'orce Col. Gary Cro/!er, comman!er of the =5<th Combine! Air Bperations Center in -outh/est Asia.
&ecause the "nite! -tates has sent more troops into areas rife /ith insurgent acti#ity, he sai!, M/e integrate! more airstri(es into those
operations.M 1he greater reliance on air po/er has raise$ concerns from h&man rights gro&ps , /hich
say that >55Jpoun! an! 4,555Jpoun! munitions threaten ci#ilians, especially /hen !roppe! in resi!ential
neighborhoo!s /here insurgents mi* /ith the population. 1he military assures that the precision attac(s are !esigne! to minimiAe
ci#ilian casualties JJ particularly as PetraeusHs counterinsurgency strategy emphasiAes mo#ing more troops into local communities an! /inning o#er the
ra@i population JJ but rights groups say bombings carry an especially high ris(. M1he Ira.i pop&lation remains at
ris# of harm !uring these operations ,M sai! )liane %abaa, a spo(es/oman for the ".%. Assistance Mission for ra@. M1he presence
of in!i#i!ual combatants among a great number of ci#ilians !oes not alter the ci#ilian character of an area.M
"%AM estimates that more than 455 ci#ilian !eaths resulte! from ".-. airstri(es in ra@ from the beginning of April
to the en! of last year, /hen ".-. forces began to significantly increase the stri(es to coor!inate /ith the
e*pansion of groun! troops. 1he strategy /as e#i!ent last /ee(, as ".-. forces launche! airstri(es across ra@ as part of
Bperation Phantom Phoeni*. Bn 1hurs!ay morning in Arab Jabour, southeast of &agh!a!, the ".-. military $roppe$ 9@
%om%s with 05555 po&n$s of e2plosi+es in 15 min&tes, one of the largest stri(es since the 455K in#asion. ".-. forces
north of &agh!a! employe! bombs totaling more than 3=,>55 poun!s o#er ;ust a fe/ !ays last /ee(, accor!ing to officers there. M1he purpose of
these particular stri(es /as to shape the battlefiel! an! ta(e out (no/n threats before our groun! troops mo#e
in,M Army Col. 1erry 'errell, comman!er of the 4n! &riga!e, Kr! nfantry Di#ision, sai! at a ne/s conference in &agh!a! last 'ri!ay, !escribing the
Arab Jabour attac(s. MBur aim /as to neutraliAe any a!#antage the enemy coul! claim /ith the use of )Ds an! other
/eapons,M he sai!, referring to impro#ise! e*plosi#e !e#ices. Counterinsurgency e*perts sai! the greater use of airstri(es meshes /ith ".-.
strategy, /hich calls for coalition troops to clear hostile areas before hol!ing an! then rebuil!ing them. ".-. forces ha#e put the ne/
counterinsurgency efforts into play by using their increase! numbers to home in on insurgent stronghol!s. Colin 2ahl, a professor of security stu!ies at
Georgeto/n "ni#ersity /ho stu!ies the ra@ /ar, sai! airstri(es rose in 455P because of a combination of increase! ".-. operations an! a realiAation that
air po/er can ha#e a strong psychological effect on the enemy. MPart of this is announcing our presence to the a!#ersary,M sai! 2ahl, /ho recently
returne! from a trip to the air operations center. MAcross this calen!ar year you /ill see a re!uction in ".-. forces, so there /ill be fe/er troops to support
ra@i forces. Bne /oul! e*pect a continue! le#el of airstri(es because of offensi#e operations, an! as ".-. forces
begin to !ra/ !o/n you may see e#en more airstri(es.M n Afghanistan, /here ".-. an! %A1B bombings pic(e! up in the
mi!!le of 455=, coalition airstri(es reache! K,>P4 last year, more than !ouble the total for 455= an! more than 45
times the number in 455>. Many of the stri(es ha#e targete! the 1aliban an! other e*tremists in Helman! pro#ince, an!
military officials sai! they ha#e been able to use air po/er to support small -pecial 'orces units that engage the enemy in remote locations. Human
rights groups estimate that Afghan ci#ilian casualties cause! by airstri(es triple! to more than K55 in 455P,
fueling fears that such aggressi#e bombar!ment coul! be catastrophic for the innocent. Marc Garlasco, a military analyst at Human Rights ,atch /ho
trac(s airstri(es in ra@ an! Afghanistan, sai! the stri(es carry uni@ue ris(s. MMy ma;or concern /ith /hatHs going on in ra@
is massi#e population !ensity,M he sai!. M.ou ha#e the potential for +er! high ci+ilian cas&alties , so you nee!
really granular intelligence on /hat youHre going to hit. &ut !onHt thin( theyHre being careless.M n preparation for last /ee(Hs ma;or
airstri(es near &agh!a!, %orth sai!, he met t/o /ee(s ago /ith Army Ma;. Gen. Ric( +ynch, comman!er of the Kr! nfantry Di#ision an! ".-. forces in
&agh!a!, to /al( through the plans. M,hat youHre seeing in the last fe/ !ays is a #ery !eliberate process hone! by intelligence, targete! an! aligne! to
get the !esire! effect in a particular area,M %orth sai!. Comman!ers also sai! they are using air po/er more creati#ely, in
some cases !ropping bombs that e*plo!e in the air to !etonate insurgent roa!si!e bombs. Bther ".-.
munitions ha#e cut off small bri!ges or roa!s to isolate insurgent mo#ement. As seen in Air 'orce #i!eos, some attac(s ha#e
been e*tremely precise, such as /hen a Pre!ator unmanne! aircraft fire! an AGMJ336P Hellfire missile to (ill three e*tremists /ho /ere setting up a
mortar attac( on %o#. P in &ala!. %orth sai! the Air 'orce has use! concreteJfille! bombs to !etonate )D sites an! is using 4>5Jpoun! G&"JK< smallJ
!iameter bombs to ma(e blasts safer for ci#ilians. Comman!ers also ha#e been using airstri(es on houses suspecte! to be rigge! /ith e*plosi#es, calle!
MhouseJborne )Ds.M -uch a stri(e occurre! Jan. =, /hen sol!iers /ith the 4n! &attalion, 3st Ca#alry Regiment, 6th -try(er &riga!e Combat 1eam
spotte! fi#e suspecte! insurgents /ith roc(etJpropelle! grena!es an! A2J6P rifles apparently rigging a house /ith e*plosi#es near 2han &ani -aa!,
northeast of &agh!a!. +t. Col. -tuart Pettis, air liaison officer for Multinational Di#ision %orth, sai! the unit as(e! for airstri(es. MAfter !oing a sho/ of
force to get ci#ilians out of the area, they engage! the house an! the fighters /ith a >55Jpoun! bomb,M he sai! of the attac( by t/o &ritish 1orna!o GR6
;ets. M1hey too( the fighters out.M
More e+i$ence
M&eller 15 (2arl P., senior political scientist at RA%D Corporation, a!;unct associate professor in the
-ecurity -tu!ies Program, Georgeto/n "ni#ersity, 4535, 7Air Po/er,8 RA%D Corporation,
http9::///.ran!.org:pubs:reprints:4535:RA%DFRP3634.p!f, AJ?
'or some => years the "nite! -tates has been the /orl!Qs lea!ing aerial po/er, an! to!ay its preeminence is in
man! respects greater than e+er follo/ing t/o !eca!es of Russian air po/er !ecline an! !ramatic
contractions in military in#estment by many ,estern states, most of /hich anticipate con!ucting highJ
intensity air campaigns only as part of a "-Jle! coalition (Posen 455KR see also -e#ers(y 3<64?. 1his is not merely, an! arguably
not e#en primarily, !ue to the @uantity an! @uality of the "- arme! forcesQ combat aircraft an! aircre/, but is also a function of years of
massi#e, &nri+ale$ *S in+estment in Aena%lingB capa%ilities inclu!ing airlift, aerial refueling,
comman! an! control, intelligence, sur#eillance an! reconnaissance (-R?, communications, an! basing that ma(e possible
the sustaine! generation an! coor!ination of large numbers of sorties, often o#er long ranges an! far from the
"nite! -tates itself (+ambeth 4555?.
Ineffecti+e
Air power ineffecti+e , empirics
M&eller 15 (2arl P., senior political scientist at RA%D Corporation, a!;unct associate professor in the
-ecurity -tu!ies Program, Georgeto/n "ni#ersity, 4535, 7Air Po/er,8 RA%D Corporation,
http9::///.ran!.org:pubs:reprints:4535:RA%DFRP3634.p!f, AJ?
Strategic %om%ing campaigns faile$ to pro$&ce the sort of rapi$ $ecisi+e res&lts originall!
en+isione$ by many of their proponents. Populations sub;ecte! to terror bombing !i! not rise up against
their go#ernments, !eman!ing capitulation in or!er to stop the carnage as Douhet ha! pre!icte!. 1he &ritish an! German /ar
economies pro#e! to be resilient un!er attac(, the latter finally collapsing only late in the /ar /hen Allie!
planners /ho ha! been o#erly influence! by the mo!els of their o/n economies finally /or(e! out /hich target
sets truly represente! its (ey #ulnerabilities (&ro!ie 3<><R MierAe;e/s(i 3<OO?. .et ultimately economic collapse !i! come
in both Germany an! Japan, through the combine! effects of bombing, bloc(a!e, losses on the battlefiel!, an!
A*is economic mismanagement (&ernstein 3<<>R 1ooAe 455P?. n a!!ition to punishment, Pape !eclares that !enial strategies base!
on bombing /ar pro!uction !o not /or(, nor !o !ecapitation or 7strategic paralysis8 strategies, such as those
inspire! by the theories of ,ar!en (3<O<? an! John &oy! (Bsinga 455=?. He conclu!es therefore that strategic %om%ing as a whole is
ineffecti+e , an! a!#ises that air po/er in#estment shoul! concentrate on pro#i!ing capabilities for inter!iction,
close air support, an! other missions to !efeat enemy military forces. Attac#s against enem! lea$ers ha+e in$ee$ faile$
with remar#a%le fre.&enc! to pro!uce their !esire! results (Hosmer 4553b?, /hile strategic paralysis has
pro#e! to be an elusi#e goal 0 an! one that in some cases, such as the 455K in#asion of ra@, might ha#e been
counterpro!ucti#e in any e#ent (Hosmer 455P?. 1he situation is mur(ier /ith respect to !enial campaigns against
/ar in!ustry 0 for e*ample, PapeQs claim that this /as ineffecti#e in the German case !epen!s on classifying the !estruction of the German
petroleum in!ustry as something other than strategic attac( because its principal effect /as to cripple German tactical an! operational mobility, an! he
!oes not a!!ress the possibility that the ultimate collapse of the German /ar machine coul! ha#e been achie#e! earlier if !ifferent targeting choices ha!
been ma!e. Ho/e#er, it is true that bombing enemy military pro!uction /ill be irrele#ant to !enial e*cept in prolonge!
conflicts against states that are consuming their /ar materiel an! cannot import more of it. n the en!, ho/e#er,
/hether strategic bombing can be !ecisi#e is less important than /hether particular types of strategies are li(ely to succee! or fail, particularly since the
aircraft an! /eapons use! for strategic attac( to!ay are in many respects not fun!amentally !ifferent from those nee!e! for other types of air campaigns.
SC Sol+es , AirSea /attle
S.&o sol+es the Air Force emerging threats hegemon! an$ the econom!???AirSea /attle
(7'o&r#e DE10 4534, $Ronal! BHRour(e9 -pecialist in %a#al Affairs, 7China %a#al Mo!erniAation9 mplications for ".-. %a#y CapabilitiesI
&ac(groun! an! ssues for Congress,8 Congressional Research -er#ice, http9::///.fas.org:sgp:crs:ro/:R+KK3>K.p!f, AJ
DBD has been !e#eloping a ne/ AirJ-ea &attle (A-&? concept that is inten!e! to increase the ;oint operating
effecti#eness ".-. na#al an! Air 'orce units, particularly in operations for countering antiJaccess forces. 1he A-&
!e#elopment effort /as announce! in the 4535 Sua!rennial Defense Re#ie/. DBD has establishe! an AirJ-ea &attle Bffice to gui!e the implementation
of the concept.335 Although DBD officials state that the A-& concept is not !irecte! at any particular a!#ersary, many obser#ers belie#e it is focuse! to a
large !egree, if not principally, on countering Chinese an! ranian antiJaccess forces. Appreciating the nee! to a!!ress the gro/ing
challenge pose! by the emerging A4:AD en#ironment, the -ecretary of Defense !irecte! the Department of the
Air 'orce an! the Department of the %a#y to !e#elop an AirJ-ea &attle Concept. n response, the ser#ices !esigne!
an operational concept, focuse! on the /ays an! means necessary to neutraliAe current an! anticipate! A4:AD
threats, to ensure our Joint force maintains the ability to pro8ect power an$ protect *.S. national
interests . 1he AirJ-ea &attle Concept centers on net/or(e!, integrate!, attac(JinJ!epth to !isrupt, !estroy
an! !efeat (%AJDK? A4:AD threats. 1his approach e*ploits an! impro#es upon the a!#antage ".-. forces ha#e
across the air, maritime, lan!, space an! cyberspace !omains, an! is essential to !efeat increasingly capable
intelligence gathering systems an! sophisticate! /eapons systems use! by a!#ersaries employing A4:AD
systems. Bffensi#e an! !efensi#e tas(s in AirJ-ea &attle are tightly coor!inate! in real time by net/or(s able to
comman! an! control air an! na#al forces in a conteste! en#ironment. 1he air an! na#al forces are organiAe!
by mission an! net/or(e! to con!uct integrate! operations across all !omains. 1he concept organiAes these integrate!
tas(s into three lines of effort, /herein air an! na#al forces attac(JinJ!epth to !isrupt the a!#ersaryQs intelligence
collection an! comman! an! control use! to employ A4:AD /eapons systemsR !estroy or neutraliAe A4:AD
/eapons systems /ithin effecti#e range of ".-. forcesR an! !efeat an a!#ersaryQs employe! /eapons to preser#e
essential ".-. Joint forces an! their enablers. 1hrough %AJDK, air an! na#al forces achie#e integrate! effects across
multiple !omains, using multiple paths to increase the resilience, agility, spee! an! effecti#eness of the force. AirJ-ea &attle
is a limite! operational concept !esigne! to a!!ress an a!#ersaryQs A4:AD capabilities. t is not a concept aime! at any particular potential a!#ersary,
nor a campaign plan !esigne! to accomplish a specific national ob;ecti#e. nstea!, it is a concept that /ill spar( inno#ation an! !e#elopment of the
means to support future operations. 1he AirJ-ea &attle Concept i!entifies the actions nee!e! to !efeat A4:AD threats an! the materiel an! nonJmateriel
solutions re@uire! to e*ecute those actions. Regar!less of anticipate! a!#ancements in A4:AD threats, implementation of the AirJ-ea &attle
Concept /ill ensure the ".-. can gain access an! pro;ect po/er in !efense of ".-. interests an! those of our
allies an! partners.3P3 ,ith AirJ-ea &attle, /e are rein#igorating the historic partnership bet/een our t/o !epartments to protect the free!om of
the commons an! ensure operational access for the Joint 'orce. AirJ-ea &attle pro#i!es the concepts, capabilities an!
in#estments nee!e! to o+ercome the challenges pose$ %! emerging threats to access li(e ballistic an!
cruise missiles, a!#ance! submarines an! fighters, electronic /arfare an! mines. &y better countering these military
threats, AirJ-ea &attle /ill impro#e the cre!ibility an! effecti#eness of the entire Joint force as a (ey element of Joint
Bperational Access Concept implementation !irecte! in the ne/ !efense gui!ance. AirJ-ea &attle relies on highly integrate! an! tightly coor!inate!
operations across /arfighting !omainsIfor e*ample, using cyber metho!ologies to !efeat threats to aircraft, or using aircraft to !efeat threats on an!
un!er the sea. 1his le#el of integration re@uires that the %a#y an! the Air 'orce not only restore an!
institutionaliAe their close inter!epen!ence in the fiel! but also support Joint efforts to better integrate the
processes they use to !e#elop, manage an! prepare forces for !eployment. 1hose processes, in turn, must translate into
effecti#e organiAational, operational an! ac@uisition strategies. Clearly, for ".-. military forces to continue protecting the free!om of international
/aters, s(ies an! cyberspace /e must buil! on our collecti#e ser#ice histories an! share! #alues to foster a more permanent an! /ellJinstitutionaliAe!
partnership bet/een the !epartments. AirJ-ea &attle !oes e*actly that. Preser#ing ".-. global free!om of action is increasingly
importantR American interests remain e*pansi#e, e#en as American resources become more constraine!.
Autocratic states an! groups see(ing to sub#ert the pre#ailing political an! economic or!er are alrea!y
le#eraging their geographic a!#antages to employ arme! coercion an! political action to counter American
presence an! po/er pro;ection, as /ell as to !isrupt free access to (ey areas in the air an! maritime commons.
As these re#isionist strategies a!#ance, AmericaQs frien!s /ill increasingly see( the security an! stability pro#i!e! by comprehensi#e ".-. national po/er.
f America appears unable or un/illing to counter an a!#ersaryQs antiJaccess military capabilities, its frien!s
an! allies may fin! ".-. security assurances less cre!ible, lea!ing some of them to see( accommo!ation /ith aggressors
or alternate means of selfJ !efense, inclu!ing weapons of mass $estr&ction. )ither course of action coul! lea! to !angerous regional
security competitions. Mean/hile, !o/n/ar! pressure on ".-. national !efense spen!ing complicates !efense planning an! /eapon system
recapitaliAation. 1hrough the AirJ-ea &attle concept an! its man!ate for impro#e! Air 'orce an! %a#y integration, /e aim to help a!!ress these
challenges. 1hese e*amples typify past Air 'orce an! %a#y integration efforts, /hich ten!e! to be episo!ic an! a! hoc. Bnce the specific threat abate!,
the partnership !issol#e! almost as @uic(ly as it ha! forme!. 1o!ay, ho/e#er, /e face a range of increasingly comple* threats that
!eman! a more en!uring, more !eeply institutionaliAe! approach. AirJ-ea &attle mitigates access challenges
by mo#ing beyon! simply !eJconflicting operations in each /arfighting !omain, to/ar! creating the le#el of
!omain integration necessary to !efeat increasingly #arie! an! sophisticate! threats. As these historical e*amples
illustrate, this integration nee!s to occur in the fiel!Ibut it also nee!s to occur institutionally in our ser#ice efforts to organiAe, train an! e@uip the
current an! future force. 1he imperati#e behin! AirJ-ea &attle, as /e ha#e argue!, stems from the importance of our
nationQs military capacity for protecting allies an! partners as /ell as ensuring free!om of access to (ey areas of
international air, sea, space an! cyberspace. Bur militaryQs po/er pro;ection ability also allo/s ".-. statesmen
to better manage the ris(s an! uncertainties associate! /ith changes in the !istribution of po/er, especially
/hen those changes empo/er states /ho challenge important international norms. 'ree access to the ungo#erne!
7commons8 of air, maritime, cyberspace an! space is the foun!ation of the global mar(etplace. More than t/o billion passengers an!
more than K> percent of international tra!e by #alue transit international airspace annually. Ninet! percent
of glo%al tra$e %! +ol&me tra+els %! sea , an! 4> percent of that, appro*imately >5,555 #essels a year,
tra#els through a 3.PJmileJ/i!e sli#er of ocean at the -trait of Malacca. 'inancial tra!ers aroun! the /orl!
con!uct secure ban(ing transactions in#ol#ing more than T6 trillion per !ay using intercontinental
communications tra#eling through un!er/ater cables an! precise timing signals from the spaceJbase! Global
Positioning -ystem. nterconnecte! systems of tra!e, finance, information an! security enable global
prosperity an! ha#e helpe! lift almost a billion people out of po#erty since ,orl! ,ar . &ut this
interconnecte!ness also ma(es the global economy more susceptible to !isruption. 1he fragility of cho(epoints
in air, space, cyberspace an! on the sea enable an increasing number of entities, states an! nonJstate actors
ali(e to !isrupt the global economy /ith small numbers of /ellJplace!, precise attac(s. 1o!ay, for e*ample,
Iran reg&larl! threatens transit access through the -trait of HormuA in response to international
sanctions. Moreo#er, these strategies an! the /eapons that support them are also no longer the e*clusi#e pro#ince of large states. Pirates
terrorists an$ ins&rgents are increasingl! a%le to $isr&pt free transit in the air on lan$ an$ at
sea . 1he " nite! -tates must be prepare! to respon! to these contingencies, to !efen! ".-. interests abroa! an! to
preser+e the free$om an$ sec&rit! of the glo%al commons in this rapi$l! changing en+ironment.
,hen the -o#iet "nion !issol#e!, so !i! the pre!ictability that gui!e! ".-. force !e#elopment an! force posture for !eca!es. Bur pre!ecessors
recogniAe!, ho/e#er, that ne/ a!#ersaries /oul! ine#itably rise to challenge our national interests. 1hey !e#elope! an
impro#e! mo!el of e*pe!itionary /arfare !emonstrate! in Desert -torm, one that capitaliAe! on an! sustaine! American free!om of action. 1han(s to
their foresight an! effort, the ".-. military to!ay can surge aircraft, ships, troops an! supplies from locations /ithin
the "nite! -tates an! across the globe to any region of concern. f conflict erupts an! if calle! on by the ".-.
national lea!ership, the ".-. military can seiAe air, maritime an! space superiority, an! e*ploit that a!#antage
in follo/Jon operations. AirJ-ea &attle is !esigne! to sustain AmericaQs free!om of action in the face of these
!e#elopments. Although AirJ-ea &attle aims to create a more cre!ible fighting force, our #ision shoul! not be mista(en for a oneJ!imensional combat
plan against specific a!#ersaries. AirJ-ea &attleQs purpose is to gui!e our ser#icesQ efforts to organiAe, train an! e@uip
our forces by !escribing ho/ to ensure free!om of action for the entire Joint 'orce. Bperational plans buil!ing on the AirJ
-ea &attle concept /ill not be !e#elope! in the Pentagon but by the combatant comman!ers themsel#es. Bur focus is on ho/ to pro#i!e combatant
comman!ers the capabilities nee!e! to gain an! maintain access as part of their plans. 1he first steps to implement AirJ-ea &attle are
alrea!y un!er/ay here at the Pentagon. n our '. 4534 an! '. 453K bu!gets /e increase! in#estment in the
systems an! capabilities /e nee! to !efeat access threats. ,e also establishe! a ne/ AirJ-ea &attle Bffice to impro#e integration
an! interJser#ice communication. nstitutionaliAing these arrangements is a (ey to fostering persistent an! sustainable progress in AirJ-ea &attle
implementation an! to engen!er the 7culture of change8 highlighte! in the ne/ strategic gui!ance to the Department of Defense. Much as Air+an! &attle
an! its 7K3 nitiati#es8 influence! a generation of airmen an! sol!iers, /e /ant AirJ-ea &attle to shape a ne/ generation of airmen
an! sailors. Acti#e collaboration bet/een our ser#ices /ill re#eal untappe! synergies in (ey areas such as
intelligence, sur#eillance an! reconnaissanceR electronic /arfareR comman! an! controlR an! buil!ing an!
sustaining fruitful international partnerships /ith ".-. allies, partners an! frien!s. 7%et/or(e!89 &y establishing
resilient communications net/or(s an! reinforcing the lin(s bet/een people an! organiAations, air an! na#al
forces /ill maintain !ecision a!#antage an! effecti#e crossJ!omain operations !espite an a!#ersaryQs antiJ
access an! areaJ!enial efforts. N 7ntegrate!89 Air an! na#al forces /ill tightly coor!inate their operations across
each !omain to !efeat antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial threats. 1his /ill re@uire ne/ mo!els for comman! an! control to allo/, for
e*ample, cyber or un!ersea operations to !efeat air !efense systems or air attac(s to eliminate submarine or mine threats. Air an! na#al force
integration /ill also capitaliAe on multiple attac( path/ays to increase combat efficiency an! hol! targets at
ris( that /oul! other/ise be immune from attac(. N 7Attac(JinJDepth89 n tra!itional attrition mo!els of /arfare, forces attac( the
outer layer of an enemyQs !efenses an! !eliberately fight their /ay in. n contrast, un!er AirJ -ea &attle, forces /ill attac( a!#ersary
systems /here#er nee!e! to gain access to conteste! areas nee!e! to achie#e operational ob;ecti#es. "sing
7%et/or(e!, ntegrate! Attac(JinJDepth8, American air an! na#al forces /ill con!uct operations along three main lines of
effort9 N Disrupt. 1his category inclu!es offensi#e operations to !ecei#e or !eny a!#ersary battle net/or(s,
particularly intelligence, sur#eillance an! reconnaissance (-R? an! comman! an! control (C4? systems. 1his re!uces the effecti#e
!ensity of a!#ersary antiJaccess systems by forcing attac(s against false targets, causing a!#ersary hesitation in
the face of poor information, an! pre#enting the cueing of a!#ersary ships, missiles, electronic /arfare systems
an! aircraft. NDestroy. Bffensi#e operations to neutraliAe a!#ersary /eapon !eli#ery platforms such as ships,
submarines, aircraft an! missile launchers fall into this category. 1his also pre#ents the a!#ersary from
e*ten!ing the range of the !enie! area, an! re!uces the !ensity of antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial attac(s. N Defeat.
Defensi#e operations to protect ;oint forces an! their enablers from /eapons launche! by an a!#ersary are
important to the AirJ-ea &attle concept. Bur efforts to !isrupt the enemyQs C4 an! -R /ill re!uce the !ensity
of attac(s to enhance the effecti#eness of our !efensi#e systems. The Air?Sea /attle operational concept
will g&i$e o&r efforts to train an$ prepare air an$ na+al forces for com%at. ,e alrea!y train together an!
share ;oint !octrine. "n!er AirJ-ea &attle, /e /ill ta(e 7;ointness8 to a ne/ le#el, /or(ing together to establish more
integrate! e*ercises against more realistic threats. Bur people /ill practice coor!inate! operations combining stealthy submarines,
stealthy aircraft an! remotely pilote! #ehicles. ,e /ill learn to !eli#er fullJmotion #i!eo !irectly from Air 'orce remotely pilote! aircraft to %a#y ships
transiting highJthreat regions. ,e /ill coor!inate bet/een Air 'orce an! %a#y operations centers to create seamless
an! resilient comman! an! control net/or(s. ,e /ill learn ho/ to integrate na#al forces into airfiel! !efense,
an! /e /ill train our Air 'orce aircre/s to !efen! ships at sea. 1o i!entify an! e*ploit these synergies,
comman!ers /ill promulgate promising i!eas across the ser#ices, an! /e /ill incorporate them into our
bu!geting, ac@uisition, an! !e#elopment of !octrine an! tactics. 1hese efforts /ill sustain American military
cre!ibility, enhance the e*pe!itionary cre!ibility of groun! forces an! bolster international trust in critical
areas /here ".-. po/er pro;ection capabilities un!erpin regional stability an! security. ,e /ill also use AirJ-ea
&attle to gui!e collaborati#e efforts to !e#elop an! mo!erniAe our air an! na#al forces. ,e ha#e historically built
magnificent platforms an! capabilities tailore! to ser#iceJspecific re@uirements, /ith the Air 'orce focusing on pre#ailing in the air an! space, an! the
%a#y in the maritime !omains. Ho/e#er, mo!ern technology has blurre! the historical !istinction bet/een the ser#icesQ tra!itional realms. Ha#ing a
strong Air 'orce no longer guarantees control of the air, an! ha#ing a strong %a#y no longer guarantees control
of the seas. Bur respecti#e /arfighting !omains ha#e become intert/ine! such that the ability to control an!
e*ploit one increasingly !epen!s on control in the others. ,e ha#e alrea!y begun this collaboration /ith our
/or( on the Global Ha/( an! &roa! Area Maritime -ur#eillance aircraft, the 'JK> +ightning , an! a range of
sensor, net/or( an! /eapon systems. )#en /ithout AirJ-ea &attle, the Air 'orce an! %a#y /oul! surely ha#e
trie! to ans/er the antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial challenge. &ut they /oul! ha#e !one so through separate ac@uisition programs,
tactics an! proce!ure !e#elopment, an! organiAational changes. Discrete %a#y an! Air 'orce partnerships might ha#e forme!, but the result /oul! ha#e
been an array of competing efforts /ith little cohesion, pursue! energetically but inefficiently. 1hese tra!itional approaches /ill not /or(
anymore. Constraine! !efense bu!gets, aging har!/are an! accelerating antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial threats
!eman! a more effecti#e mo!el of !e#eloping an! fiel!ing capabilities. ,e cannot simply buy our /ay out of this pre!icament
by in#esting in ne/ technologies. 1o meet the !eman!s of the Presi!entQs strategic !irection to the Department of Defense an! respon! to the e#ol#ing
security en#ironment, /e must brea( bureaucratic chains, set asi!e parochialism an! get !o/n to the business of collaborati#ely !e#eloping po/er
pro;ection capabilities for this ne/ era. ,hile pursuing AirJ-ea &attle seems li(e common sense, the /ay ahea! /ill be challenging. -ome /ithin the
Pentagon may #ie/ our initiati#es as e*istential threats to core ser#ice i!entities an! beliefs, heritages an! tra!itions. ,e !o not see it that /ay. Rather
than threatening ser#ice i!entities, /e see AirJ-ea &attle as strengthening them. %obo!y !oes sea control li(e the ".-.
%a#y, an! the Air 'orce shoul! collaborate /ith the %a#y to enhance American sea po/er. -imilarly, no one !oes
air an! space control li(e the ".-. Air 'orce, an! the %a#y shoul! partner /ith its sister ser#ice to enhance
those capabilitiesR all /ithin a larger ;oint an! combine! po/er pro;ection conte*t. n a changing /orl! that !eman!s
continue! ".-. lea!ership, AirJ-ea &attle is an essential part of sustaining AmericaQs military free!om of action an!
ability to pro;ect po/er. ,e /ill institutionaliAe our !e#elopment of !octrine, organiAation, training, personnel, lea!ership an! facilities, an!
ensure that AirJ-ea &attle sur#i#es contact /ith the s(eptics an! entrenche! bureaucracy. AirJ-ea &attle is not a sil#erJbullet solution to our security
challenges, but it is a critical line of effort that /e must pursue to sustain AmericaQs military a!#antage, an! /ith it,
our security an! prosperity.3P4 An April 4534 press report that pro#i!es a historical account of the A-& concept states9 7n truth, the Air
-ea &attle Concept is the culmination of a strategy fight that began nearly t/o !eca!es ago insi!e the Pentagon
an! ".-. go#ernment at large o#er ho/ to !eal /ith a single actor9 the PeopleQs Republic of China.83PK A %o#ember
35, 4533, press report states9 Military officials from the three ser#ices tol! reporters !uring a D%o#ember <, 4533, DBDE bac(groun! briefing that the
concept is not !irecte! at a single country. &ut they !i! not ans/er /hen as(e! /hat country other than China has !e#elope! a!#ance! antiJaccess arms.
A senior Bbama a!ministration official /as more blunt, saying the ne/ concept is a significant milestone signaling a ne/ Col! ,arJstyle approach to
China. 7Air -ea &attle is to China /hat the D".-. %a#yQs mi!J3<O5sE maritime strategy /as to the -o#iet "nion,8 the official sai!. During the Col! ,ar,
".-. na#al forces aroun! the /orl! use! a strategy of glo%al presence an$ shows of force to $eter
Moscow-s a$+ances. 7t is a #ery for/ar!J!eploye!, asserti#e strategy that says /e /ill not sit bac( an! be punishe!,8 the senior official sai!.
7,e /ill initiate.8 1he concept, accor!ing to !efense officials, gre/ out of concerns that ChinaQs ne/ precisionJ stri(e /eapons threaten
free!om of na#igation in strategic /ater/ays an! other global commons. Defense officials familiar /ith the concept sai!
among the i!eas un!er consi!eration are9 N &uil!ing a ne/ longJrange bomber. N Con!ucting ;oint submarine an! stealth aircraft operations. N %e/
;ointly operate!, longJrange unmanne! stri(e aircraft /ith up to 3,555Jmile ranges. N "sing Air 'orce forces to protect na#al bases an! !eploye! na#al
forces. N Con!ucting ;oint %a#y, Marine Corps an! Air 'orce stri(es insi!e China. N "sing Air 'orce aircraft to !eploy sea mines. N Joint Air
'orce an! %a#y attac(s against Chinese antiJsatellite missiles insi!e China. ncreasing the mobility of satellites to ma(e attac(s more !ifficult. +aunching
;oint %a#y an! Air 'orce cyberJattac(s on Chinese antiJaccess forces.3P6
More e+i$ence???AirSea %attle sol+es
For%es 1= K:O, $Rep. J. Ran!y 'orbes, RJCa., is chairman of the House Arme! -er#ices Rea!iness -ubcommittee an! foun!er an! coJchairman of
the Congressional China Caucus, 7AmericaQs Pacific AirJ-ea &attle Cision,8 http9::the!iplomat.com:4534:5K:5O:americasJpacificJairJseaJbattleJ#ision:,
AJ
1he ".-. must stop ta(ing an 7instant pu!!ing8 #ie/ of military planning. 1he AirJ-ea &attle plan is the best hope to ensure
security in the Pacific. n the late summer of 4533, ".-. -ecretary of Defense +eon Panetta signe! the AirJ-ea &attle (A-&?
operational concept into effect, an! shortly thereafter stoo! up the AirJ-ea &attle Bffice at the Pentagon to help
implement its core tenets. 1his effort, accor!ing to Gen. %orton A. -ch/artA, Chief of -taff of the Air 'orce, an! A!m. Jonathan ,.
Greenert, Chief of %a#al Bperations, /ill help the ser#ices better organiAe, train, an! e@uip themsel#es to pro#i!e ".-.
Combatant Comman!ers /ith the capabilities necessary to maintain operational access in sophisticate! antiJ
access:areaJ!enial (A4:AD? en#ironments. 1his /ill be of particular importance in the /estern Pacific Bcean, /here
China is %&il$ing its own A=EAD capa%ilities in an effort to $en! the *.S. entr! in its near?seas.
1hroughout the last si* !eca!es, AmericaQs military strength has helpe! preser#e a relati#ely stable geoJstrategic
en#ironment in the AsiaJPacific. Ho/e#er, in the past !eca!e China has rapi$l! mo$erni;e$ its militar! ,
inclu!ing another !ouble !igit military increase ne*t year, /ith aspirations of supplanting the ".-. position. f
present tren!s continue, the regional balance of po/er coul! tilt in &ei;ingQs fa#or as it is increasingly able to !eter
".-. forces from entering the region, coerce neighboring states, or 0 shoul! conflict ensue 0 /in a rapi! #ictory.
n response, the "nite! -tates must /or( to simultaneously sustain a le#el of cre!ible !eterrence in the region /hile
reassuring allies, inclu!ing Japan, the Republic of 2orea, the Philippines, Australia, an! strategic partners li(e
-ingapore. AirJ-ea &attle is no/ at the center of this effort. n short, the AirJ-ea &attle Bffice aims to !efine
initiati#es to !e#elop the capabilities an! integration necessary to help Combatant Comman!ers con!uct
integrate!, crossJ!omain operations in A4:AD en#ironments. Accor!ing to -ch/artA an! Greenert, AirJ Sea /attle
see#s to &se ANetwor#e$ Integrate$ Attac#?in?DepthB to A$isr&pt $estro! an$ $efeat 8 (%AJDK?
a!#ersary capabilities. More specifically, the ;oint force (integrate! air, groun!, an! na#al forces? arme! /ith
resilient communications (net/or(e!? aims to stri(e at multiple no!es of an enemyQs system (attac(JinJ!epth? along
three lines of effort. f /e can consi!er these lines in terms of an enemy archer, one coul! choose to blin! the archer (!isrupt?, (ill
the archer (!estroy?, or stop his arro/ (!efeat?. &alance! capabilities geare! to/ar!s e*ecuting all three /ill be
re@uire!.
Air s&periorit! is high
Schan; 11 Bctober 4533, $Marc C. -chanA9 -enior )!itor, Air 'orce MagaAine, 7Air-ea &attleHs 1urbulent .ear,8 http9::///.airforceJ
magaAine.com:MagaAineArchi#e:Pages:4533:BctoberL454533:3533airsea.asp*, AJ
Air-ea &attle, the operational concept recently assemble! by the Air 'orce an! %a#y, is an ambitious effort /ith great implications
for ho/ the air an$ sea ser+ices plan for e.&ip an$ prepare to fight f&t&re high?intensit!
conflicts . A-& is born out of a nee! for the "- military to a!!ress percei#e! threats an! strategic concerns
across the globe, in en#ironments far !ifferent from the t/o largely Mlo/ intensityM /ars fought o#er the last
!eca!e. At its core, a finaliAe! AirSea /attle concept will protect America-s a%ilit! to pro8ect power an$
sec&re areas of the Fglo%al commonsFGthe sea an$ air lanes +ital to the nation-s interests I/hile
relying hea#ily on air an! sea superiority. MB#er the last se#eral !eca!es, the "- military has !e#elope! an! maintaine!
an &nri+ale$ a%ilit! to esta%lish an$ maintain air s&periorit! an$ sea control ,M sai! Air 'orce Chief of -taff
Gen. %orton A. -ch/artA in an a!!ress at the %ational Defense "ni#ersity in December 4535. 1he "- has been so successful in
pro;ecting e*pe!itionary po/er, both from long !istances an! from for/ar! bases, that its a%ilit! to $o so has %een
largel! &nchallenge$, -ch/artA a!!e!. Despite the lac( of information, there is some e#i!ence "-A' an! the %a#y are
alrea!y coor!inating their e*ercise an! e*perimentation plans to match up /ith A-& concepts. 1he Air 'orceQs
Joint )*pe!itionary 'orce )*periment franchise, a series of li#e, #irtual, an! constructe! e*periments run by the Air 'orce Comman!
an! Control ntegration Center, plans on focusing on Air-ea &attle concepts /ith the %a#y in 'iscal 4534.
ATH /&$get C&ts
Doesn-t affect air power
'&m%a&gh 1= 3:=, $Russell Rumbaugh is coJ!irector of the -timson CenterHs &u!geting for 'oreign Affairs an! Defense program. 1he -timson
Center is a nonprofit organiAation that see(s to strengthen institutions for peace an! security, buil! regional security an! re!uce /eapons of mass
!estruction an! transnational threats. Rumbaugh is a former Democratic staff member on the -enate &u!get Committee, 7BbamaHs !efense cuts are too
timi!,8 http9::///.cnn.com:4534:53:5=:opinion:rumbaughJ!efenseJcutbac(s:in!e*.html, AJ
1he biggest change is a smaller Army I reports suggest troop numbers !o/n to le#els last seen in the late 3<<5s. 1his change is ;ustifie! by
the strategyHs !eJemphasis of stability operations li(e ra@ an! Afghanistan an! rene/e! focus on Asia, /here
na+al an$ air forces are the main tool. f the strategyHs blueprint is follo/e!, /e coul! see a fun!amental change to
our force structure an! military postureI more airpower an$ na+al , an! fe/er groun! forces. 1hese
statements !onHt soun! li(e an o#erhaul in the Defense Department is imminent to reflect this ne/ strategy. Rather, the
a!ministration /ill more li(ely ma(e some marginal changes to meet the ne/ bu!get realities. 1he Army /ill
still prepare to fight highJintensity lan! campaigns. 1he Air 'orce /ill still prepare to achie#e air superiority.
1he %a#y /ill still prepare to maintain a presence on the seas. An! the Marines /ill still prepare to lan! on the
beaches. ,e may be at an inflection point, as the presi!ent sai!, but it is &nli#el! that inflection will affect the Pentagon
that m&ch .
AI')INE IND*ST'I
Alt Ca&se , F&el Prices
Alt ca&se , airline in$&str! will ine+ita%l! %e +&lnera%le $&e to f&el price +olatilit!
FAA =511 ('e!eral A#iation A!ministration, 71he )conomic mpact of Ci#il A#iation on the ".-. )conomy8, August,
http9::///.faa.go#:airFtraffic:publications:me!ia:'AAF)conomicFmpactFRptF4533.p!f? Megan
The highl! +olatile price of f&el contin&es to %e a ma8or concern for the airline in$&str! an$
o+erall econom! . n the summer of 455O, ;etJfuel prices spi(e! to recor! highs, follo/e! @uic(ly by a
precipitous !rop in the autumn ('igure 6?. Bil mar(et speculators !ro#e the increase as !i! flat ".-. cru!e petroleum fiel! pro!uction, cuts in ".-.
refining capacity, !eclines in -trategic Petroleum Reser#e stoc(s, !ecreases in BrganiAation of Petroleum )*porting Countries (BP)C? pro!uction
targets, an! political uncertainty in the Persian Gulf, CeneAuela, Algeria an! %igeria.3K Prices subse@uently fell !uring the remaining months of 455O to
T>K per barrel in 'ebruary 455<Ia =O percent !ecline. 1his !ecrease /as mainly !ue to the !elaye! impact of falling o#erall !eman! for oil as a result of
the recession.36 4ith the &pt&rn in the econom! the price of 8et f&el has slowl! risen. n January 4533, the
price of ;et fuel a#erage! T335 per barrel. Recent political turmoil in %orth Africa an! the Mi!!le )ast has le! to further price increases. ,hile many
analysts belie#e that the oil mar(et /ill return to more familiar patterns, it shoul! be note! that the increase$ $eman$ from China
In$ia /ra;il an$ other emerging economies will li#el! place &pwar$ press&re on the price of
energ! face$ %! airlines an$ %! their c&stomers. Moreo#er, as in all forecasts, some e#ents cannot be foreseen. 'ecent
&nrest in the Mi$$le East an$ Africa has create$ more &ncertaint! for all transportation?
relate$ ser+ices an$ $ampene$ economic e2pectations. 'rom December K3, 4535, through March 6, 4533, the spot price
of ".-. Gulf Coast ;et fuel, accor!ing to the ".-. )nergy nformation A!ministration, rose =K cents per gallon to TK.3K, #ersus an increase of 64 cents per
gallon for all of 4535.
Alt cause 0 rising oil prices
Da#ison 34 0 financial planner (Craig Da+ison A'ising oil prices affecting airlinesJ ma! ca&se fare
increaseB = April =51= The News an$ A$+ance http9::///4.ne/sa!#ance.com:ne/s:4534:apr:54:risingJoilJpricesJ
affectingJairlinesJmayJcauseJfarJarJ3O3KP63:?::'2
Dri#ers are concerne! as gas prices creep near four buc(s a gallon. &ut rising oil prices also are a!!ing millions of !ollars in
e*penses each !ay for airlines. 1he tren! coul! lea! to airfare price increases. t also coul! cause airlines to
re!uce the number of flights or use smaller crafts /ith fe/er a#ailable seats, sai! Mar( Courtney, !irector of +ynchburg
Regional Airport. Higher fuel prices put more pressure on airlines to pro!uce higher re#enues per flight to offset the
a!!itional losses, he sai!. 'uel is the largest single cost to airlines an! accounts for about K> percent of e*penses,
accor!ing to Airlines 'or America, an in!ustry tra!e organiAation. As the busier summer months approach, airlines are /aiting to see ho/ much
more fuel prices /ill increase, Courtney sai!. 71he biggest !eterminate there, in my opinion, is the uncertainty,8 he sai!. 7t ten!s to force
the airlines in a /aitJan!Jsee mo!e.8 Airfare costs ha#e been on the rise recently. &et/een January 4533 an! January 4534,
the a#erage fare rose < percent, A'A reporte!. 'uel prices are e*pecte! to stay high. +ast month, the nternational Air 1ransport
AssociationQs outloo( for the global airline in!ustry increase! its e*pectations for fuel costs in 4534. 1hat organiAation initially e*pecte!
fuel to a#erage T<< a barrel this year. %o/, it pre!icts it /ill cost an a#erage of T33>, a number that coul! go higher if
tensions in the Mi!!le )ast /orsen. Bperations in +ynchburg /ill stay the same for the time being, accor!ing to "- Air/ays, /hich has si* !eparting an!
si* incoming flights bet/een the city an! Charlotte, %.C., a "- Air/ays hub /ith connections to more than 3K5 !estinations. 7,eQre not loo(ing at
cutting flights at this time !ue to fuel prices,8 sai! spo(esman 1o!! +ehmacher, although he note! the company remains concerne! about fuel costs.
+ocal airfare prices ha#e increase! o#er the past t/o years, Courtney sai!, but prices in 4535 /ere 7roc( bottom8 !ue to lo/ !eman! !uring the !epths of
the recession. 1he a#erage roun!trip fare to the 4< most popular !estinations from +ynchburg Regional Airport /as T4O< as of March 45, he sai!. n
Bctober 4535, the lo/est leisure tra#eler roun!Jtrip flight to +as Cegas cost T3<O an! lo/estJprice! trip to -an 'rancisco cost T43O, he sai!. More than
;ust fuel prices helpe! set those fares. Deman! /as lo/er than from leisure an! business passengers, Courtney e*plaine!, forcing airlines to lo/er rates
to attract more tra#elers. Airfare price increases ten! to come from airlines across the boar!, he sai!. Bne company may try an increase in price, but if
the other companies !onQt mo#e, the increase! price is often rescin!e! to stay competiti#e, he sai!. ,hile costs ha#e gone up at +ynchburg airport, the
fares staye! competiti#e /ith other regional airports, Courtney sai!. ,hile +ynchburg a#erages T4O< per roun!Jtrip, Roano(e Regional AirportQs most
recent a#erage roun!trip airfare /as TKK4, he sai!. 1his rise in fuel prices comes at a time /hen fuel efficiency for airlines has greatly increase! o#er the
past fe/ years, re!ucing the amount of fuel use!, accor!ing to Airlines for America. n 455>, airlines use! about >6.P million gallons of fuel a !ay. n
4533, it /as 6O.K million. 1he increase in costs uppe! the amount spent on fuel. Airlines spent TKK.4 billion in 455>
on fuel, accor!ing to !ata from A'A. &y 4533, that increase! to T>5.> billion. n recent years, the spi(e in fuel prices cut airlinesQ profits. n 4535,
American passenger airlines recor!e! a net profit of T4.P billion. n 4533, that number !roppe! to TK<5 million. &et/een 4535 an! 4533,
operating re#enue gre/ 34.= percent but e*penses increase! 3>.>. 'uel costs rose K= percent, accor!ing to A'A.
Courtney sai! the airport /ill continue to promote its competiti#e fare structure an! to /or( /ith "- Air/ays to benefit the airline an! the airport. He
sai! the airport nee!s to gi#e the best possible air ser#ice for the best possible airfare, /hile remaining profitable for "- Air/ays. 7tQs a balancing act,8 he
sai!. 7,e ha#e to satisfy the airlines an! /e ha#e to satisfy the community.8
Airline sector collapse ine+ita%le , rising f&el prices an$ reorgani;ation costs
Smith 1= 0 staff /riter(Aaron, 7American Airlines loses another T3.P billion8, C%%Money, 3< April 4534,
http9::money.cnn.com:4534:56:3<:ne/s:companies:americanJairlines:in!e*.htm?::'2
%), .BR2 (C%%Money? JJ 1he parent of American Airlines, /hich /ent into ban(ruptcy last year, announce! a
@uarterly net loss of T3.P billion on Th&rs$a! slamme! by reorganiAation costs an! rising fuel prices. 1he
loss /as more than @ua!ruple the carrierHs loss from a year earlier, when AM' Corp. reporte$ a net loss
of K056 million in the first @uarter of 4533. AMR sai! the part of the loss stemme! from T3.6 billion in reorganiAation costs in the latest @uarter.
1he company sai! the costs /ere relate! to its ban(ruptcy filing from last %o#. 4<. The largest ch&n# of those costs ?? some K1
%illion ? is relate$ to the re8ection of eight aircraft leases an$ eight aircraft engine leases an$
the mo$ification of 16@ aircraft leases the airline sai$. Merger hango#er continues to pain "nite! American /as
also hit by rising fuel prices. The compan! sai$ that it pai! TK.46 per gallon of ;et fuel in the first @uarter of
4534, a 3PL increase from K=.LD in the yearJearlier @uarter. 1he airline sai! this e@uate! to an increase in
costs of TK4> million. ,hile American Airlines !i!nHt specifically mention ;ob cuts in its @uarterly report, the carrier sai$ in
Fe%r&ar! that it was c&tting 19555 positions from its o#erall staff of OO,555. +ayoffs, especially /hen they happen en masse,
typically cost a lot of money for the company thatHs han!ing out the se#erance pac(ages.
'esilient
Airlines in$&str! resilient , statistics pro+e
'ice 11 0 staff /riter (2atie, 7BAG 'in!s Airlines Resilient in 'ace of K5 .ears of Crises8, 1ra#el Pulse, O -eptember 33,
http9::///.tra#elpulse.com:oagJfin!sJairlinesJresilientJinJfaceJofJK5JyearsJofJcrises.html?::'2
BAG, /hich pro#i!es !etaile! !ata about the airline in!ustry, is reporting in its BAG ,orl! Crisis Analysis that the airline in!ustry
has sho/n surprising resilience gi#en the crises it has ha! to !eal /ith o#er the past K5 years. 1hese inclu!e terrorism,
pan!emics an! natural !isasters. Despite that, accor!ing to the report, global airline capacity has gro/n on a#erage K.3 percent per
year since 3<P<. BAG also fin!s that air tra#el is largely immune to regionaliAe! e#ents such as natural
!isasters, conflicts an! fuel price spi(es. n fact, in the #ast ma;ority of crises, there /as a negligible impact in global airline capacityR
regional le#el capacity !roppe! less than 6 percent an! reco#ere! /ithin three months. 'rom 3<P< to -ept. 33, 4553, /orl! airline capacity /as
stea!ily increasing at an a#erage of > percent, or <6 million seats, per year. -ince the <:33 terrorist attac(s on %e/ .or( an!
,ashington, D.C., /orl! capacity has gro/n an a#erage of 4.= percent, or O3 million seats, per year. 1he ,orl! 1ra!e Center attac(s in 4553 an! the
Global &an(ing crisis of 455OJ455< are the only t/o e#ents since 3<P< that cause! significant !ecreases in global air capacity, a#eraging a K percent an!
< percent !rop in capacity an! reco#ering /ithin K= months an! 46 months, respecti#ely. RegionaliAe! e#ents such as the Gulf ,ars, s/ine flu an!
#olcanic eruptions cause! on a#erage less than a 6 percent !rop in regional airline capacity that reco#ere! /ithin three months or less, /ith a negligible
impact on global capacity. &raAil, Russia, n!ia, n!onesia, Mi!!le )ast an! China, /here gro/th of the mi!!le class an! personal /ealth is contributing
to increase! air tra#el !eman!, are !ri#ing continue! air capacity gro/th. 7Bne /oul! ha#e thought that tragic e#ents in recent years /oul! ha#e
!ramatically affecte! air tra#el capacity for long perio!s of time, but that simply has not been the case, /ith only the ,orl! 1ra!e Center attac(s an!
Global &an(ing crises causing ma;or !isruptions,8 sai! Mario Har!y, #ice presi!entJAsia Pacific for "&M A#iation. 7Difficult lessons learne!
from past trage!ies ha#e been ta(en to heart an! put to goo! use by the a#iation in!ustry, /hich is poise! to
continue gro/ing for the foreseeable future.8
Airline in$&str! resilient
Chan$ler 11 0 a/ar!J/inning a#iation an! tra#el /riter(Jerry, 7Ho/ resilient are airlinesU BAG says #ery8 Cheapflights 1ra#el &log, 34 -eptember
4533, http9::ne/s.cheapflights.com:ho/JresilientJareJairlinesJoagJsaysJ#ery:?::'2
'rom the goo! ne/s, ba! ne/s file thereQs this9 BAG asserts airlines the /orl! o#er are surprisingly resilient in the face of
terrorist attac(s, !isease an! natural !isasters. Matter of fact, seating capacity has gro/n an annual rate of K.3 percent since 3<P<. 1hatQs
goo! for fliers in search of cheap flights. 1here may be more seats out there, but that !oesnQt necessarily mean thereQs more competition. 7 !onQt thin(
the in!ustryQs been that resilient,8 says Joe &rancatelli, the respecte! foun!er of Joe-entMe.com. 7-ince 3<PO ;ust the !omestic ".-.
DairlineE in!ustry has lost perhaps T355 billion. 1hatQs resilienceU8 &rancatelli says /hen the airline in!ustry
!eregulate! in the late 3<P5s, there /ere some K5 airlines in the "nite! -tates. 1o!ay there is a han!ful. Gone are
names such as Pan Am, 1,A, &raniff, ,estern, )astern, P-A, Pie!mont an! others. Continental is merging /ith "nite! as /e spea(. &rancatelli
conten!s since 3<P< ;ust t/o really perennially competiti#e ne/comers ha#e emerge!9 !iscount airlines -outh/est an! Jet&lue. ,hile there may be
fe/er airlines out there, the BAG ,orl! Crisis Analysis maintains, 7air tra#el is largely immune to regionalise! e#ents such as
natural !isasters, conflicts, an! fuel prices hi(es8 0 immune, that is, from all but the -ept. 33 attac(s an! the global ban(ing crisis.
"&M A#iation C)B Peter #on Molt(e says the analysis 7sho/s ho/ @uic(ly the a#iation in!ustry respon!s an! a!apts in the
face of almost any !isaster, /hich is reassuring forVin!ustries that !epen! on a#iation.8 1ourism is one of
those in!ustries. Suic( bounceJbac(s by airlines mean carriers can reJforge connections to #acation !estinations comparati#ely @uic(ly 0 come
hurricanes, earth@ua(es, or #olcanic ash, or high /ater. &rancatelli says, ho/e#er, that some of those connections can be less competiti#e 0 simply
because there are fe/er players. ,hatQs your ta(eU Are there enough seats for sale to /here youQre hea!e!, an! enough competition aloft to ma(e the trip
affor!ableU 1ell us /hat you thin(.
ASIAN EC(N(MI
'esilient
Asian economies are resilient
/loom%erg DE19E1= (An!re/ -harp, economic /riter for &loomberg in 1o(yo, 7Asia -ho/s Resilience As
)urope Debt Concerns Mount8 httpHEEwww.%loom%erg.comEnewsE=51=?5D?19E8apan?
machine?or$ers?rose?more?than?forecast?on?reconstr&ction.html"EE CM
JapanQs machinery or!ers increase! more than economists e*pecte! an! -outh 2oreaQs unemployment fell as Asian economies
sho/ resilience in the face of )uropeQs so#ereignJ!ebt crisis. &oo(ings, an in!icator of capital spen!ing, rose >.P percent in April
from March, the Cabinet Bffice sai! in 1o(yo. 1hat compare! /ith analystsQ me!ian estimate of a 3.= percent gain. -outh 2oreaQs ;obless rate !ecline! to
K.4 percent in May from K.6 percent in April. -ri +an(a (ept interest rates on hol! to!ay as central ban( Go#ernor A;ith %i#ar! Cabraal tol!
&loomberg 1ele#ision that his nationQs economy can gro/ more than P percent this year. -painQs borro/ing costs climbing to a recor!
yester!ay, un!erscoring the threat of so#ereign bailouts that /oul! stretch )uropean "nion finances to their limit. 7Asian economies are
pro#ing pretty resilient,8 Matthe/ Circosta, an economist at Moo!yQs Analytics in -y!ney sai!. 7,e are certainly
seeing some stabiliAation in gro/th across Asia,8 he sai!, a!!ing that fiscal an! monetary stimulus in China /ill
support the region. 1he M-C Asia Pacific n!e* /as little unchange! as of 34936 p.m. in 1o(yo before a bon! sale in taly that may sho/ /hether
in#estorsQ concerns about -pain are sprea!ing to the larger economy. Reconstruction Deman! 7n the imme!iate term, tensions emanating from the euro
area are the most serious potential ris( for !e#eloping countries,8 the ,orl! &an( sai! in a t/iceJyearly report yester!ay. -ri +an(aQs Cabraal sai! to!ay
that gro/th momentum /as sustaine! in the first @uarter an! the economy can e*pan! P.4 percent this year
7unless something !ramatic happens in the thir! or fourth @uarters, /hich may not be that li(ely.8 1he !ecision to (eep interest rates unchange! sho/e!
that officials /ant to shiel! gro/th from /ea(ness in e*ports e#en as a slump in the rupee fans inflation. 1he central ban( left the re#erse repurchase rate
at <.P> percent an! the repurchase rate at P.P> percent. 1he &an( of 1hailan! /ill also (eep borro/ing costs unchange! to!ay,
accor!ing to a sur#ey of economists by &loomberg %e/s. n Australia, central ban( Go#ernor Glenn -te#ens to!ay !escribe! the benefits of a strong
Australian !ollar, saying that it benefits consumers an! probably /ill be sustaine! as mining in#estment intensifies. 7tQs a test of a!aptability,8 -te#ens
tol! business, union an! community lea!ers to!ay in the northern city of &risbane. 7,hile Qm #ery conscious that a number of sectors are really
struggling /ith the e*change rate /here it is, /e shoul!nQt /ish too @uic(ly for a lo/ e*change rate.8 Japanese Manufacturing n Japan, a
45 trillion yen (T4>4 billion? pac(age for rebuil!ing areas !e#astate! by last yearQs earth@ua(e pro#i!es
manufacturers a cushion against slo/ing o#erseas !eman!, /hile ser#ice in!ustry hiring is ai!ing the labor
mar(et in -outh 2orea. 7Asian economies are resilient, but the pace of the reco#ery o#erall is slo/ing,8 sai! 2iichi
Murashima, chief economist at Citigroup Global Mar(ets Japan nc. in 1o(yo. 7-ome e*ports numbers are loo(ing !ull, meaning there is some impact
from a!#ance! countriesQ economies, especially )urope.8 n a sign of constraints on the ".-. reco#ery, the Commerce Department is forecast to report
that retail sales fell in May for the first time in a year, economists sur#eye! by &loomberg %e/s pre!ict. 'rance, Germany an! -pain may report
consumer prices fell in May, accor!ing to &loomberg %e/s sur#eys before announcements to!ay. n!ustrial pro!uction in the euro region probably
contracte! in April, accor!ing to a separate sur#ey. Rising Br!ers Machinery or!ers in Japan /ere PO< billion yen (T<.< billion? in April, the highest le#el
since Bctober 455O, after a 4.O percent fall the pre#ious month. 1he timing of ma;or or!ers can cause the results to be #olatile. A /aning impact from
postJ@ua(e reconstruction is pro;ecte! to curb the JapanQs gro/th rate after gross !omestic pro!uct ;umpe! at an annualiAe! 6.P percent pace in
JanuaryJtoJMarch. 1he e*pansion is forecast at 4 percent this @uarter, accor!ing to the me!ian estimate of analysts sur#eye! by &loomberg %e/s. 1he
slo/!o/n is at ris( of /orsening shoul! )uropeQs trauma !eepen after Gree( elections on June 3P that may !etermine /hether that country remains in
the euro region. 'inance Minister Jun AAumi tol! Group of -e#en counterparts June > that the yenQs appreciation is causing 7serious !amage8 to the
economy. -outh 2orea a!!e! 6P4,555 ne/ ;obs in May as retailers, social /elfare, health care, an! e!ucation
ser#ices hire! more /or(ers, -tatistics 2orea sai! to!ay in G/acheon, south of -eoul. Presi!ent +ee Myung &a( sai! on June 33 that the
country isnQt planning a supplementary fiscal program an! /hile the year /ill be 7#ery !ifficult,8 the economy /ill probably gro/ more than K percent.
In$ia an$ china pro+e Asian econ is resilient
/loom%erg /&sinesswee# 1= ("nni 2rishnan is a reporter for &loomberg %e/s. 8n!ia, China )conomies
-ho/ Asia Resilient as )urope 'alters8 httpHEEwww.%&sinesswee#.comEnewsE=51=?51?
59Ein$ia?china?economies?show?asia?resilient?as?e&rope?falters.htmlNp1"EE CM
Jan. K (&loomberg? JJ Manufacturing in n!ia an! China impro#e! in December, a sign the /orl!Qs fastestJgro/ing
ma;or economies are /ithstan!ing )uropeQs !ebt crisis. 1he Purchasing ManagersQ n!e* in n!ia rose to >6.4,
the most in si* months, from >3 in %o#ember, H-&C Hol!ings Plc an! Mar(it )conomics sai! in an eJmaile! statement yester!ay. n
China, the in!e* /as at >5.K from 6< in %o#ember, the &ei;ingJ base! logistics fe!eration sai! in a statement
on Jan. 3. A number abo#e >5 in!icates e*pansion. n another positi#e sign, a Chinese in!e* for nonJ manufacturing in!ustries rose to!ay. )uropeQs
crisis may still cap !eman! for goo!s from Asia /ith an in!e* for Chinese e*port or!ers in!icating a thir! month of contraction in December. n!iaQs
economic gro/th /ill be constraine! by higher borro/ing costs an! global economic /ea(ness, H-&C an! Mar(it sai!. 7Asian economies are hol!ing up
as of no/ !espite the turmoil in o#erseas mar(ets,8 sai! Ma!an -abna#is, chief economist at MumbaiJbase! Cre!it Analysis W Research +t!.
7)uropeQs !ebt /oes though /ill (eep !eman! for Asian goo!s sub!ue! in the coming months.8 A Chinese nonJ
manufacturing PM ;umpe! to >= in December from 6<.P in %o#ember, the logistics fe!eration an! statistics
bureau sai! to!ay. Bptimism in Asia Asian stoc(s rose on optimism the regionQs economies /ill /ithstan!
)uropeQs crisis. 1he M-C Asia Pacific )*clu!ing Japan n!e* gaine! 3.K percent as of <9KK a.m. in Hong 2ong. n the euro area, /here lea!ers
return to /or( this /ee( see(ing to rescue the single currency from fragmentation, a contraction in the manufacturing sector ease! from %o#ember as an
in!icator of output in Germany, the regionQs largest economy, reache! a t/oJmonth high. A manufacturing gauge base!
on a sur#ey of purchasing managers in the 3PJnation euro region rose to 6=.< from 6=.6 in %o#ember, +on!onJ
base! Mar(it )conomics sai! yester!ay. n China, the 7festi#al effects8 of /estern an! Chinese %e/ .ear celebrations helpe! to boost the manufacturing
PM, sai! the logistics fe!eration, /hich releases the !ata /ith the statistics bureau. China has also un/oun! some tightening
measures to spur gro/th, cutting ban(sQ reser#e re@uirements in %o#ember for the first time since 455O. Chinese
-toc(s 1he -hanghai Composite n!e* tumble! 44 percent last year, the most since 455O, on concern that monetary tightening an! efforts to rein in
property prices in big cities /ill limit gro/th. 1he in!e*Qs KK percent !rop since 455< ma(es it the /orst performer among the /orl!Qs 3> biggest
mar(ets. n the Chinese manufacturing PM, an in!e* of e*port or!ers /as at 6O.= from 6>.= in %o#ember, still belo/ >5, the !i#i!ing line bet/een
contraction an! e*pansion. A measure of output ;umpe! to >K.6 from >5.<. A Chinese manufacturing in!e* release! by H-&C an! Mar(it on Dec. K5
in!icate! that manufacturing contracte! for a secon! month. At the same time, H-&C sai! that 7the pace of ChinaQs slo/!o/n is starting
to stabiliAe.8 n!iaQs 7manufacturing acti#ity reboun!e! on the bac( of increases in output an! ne/ or!ers,8 +eif )s(esen, a -ingaporeJ base!
economist at H-&C, sai! in the statement yester!ay. 7nflationary pressures remain firm lea#ing no room for the R& to ease its tight monetary policy
stance in the near term.8 n n!iaQs PM !ata, measures of output, employment, or!ers, an! e*port or!ers all rose, H-&C sai!. n!iaQs central ban( on
Dec. 3= (ept rates unchange! for the first time in eight meetings after the economy e*pan!e! in the three months through -eptember at the /ea(est pace
in more than t/o years. Car -ales 1he -ociety of n!ian Automobile Manufacturers may cut its annual !omestic passengerJcar sales target as higher rates
an! fuel prices sap !eman! for Maruti -uAu(i n!ia +t!. an! Hon!a Motor Co. #ehicles, -ugato -en, a senior !irector for the group, sai! last month. 1he
Reser#e &an( of n!iaQs repurchase rate is O.> percent after 3K increases since mi!JMarch 4535. 1he ne*t policy !ecision is sche!ule! to be announce! on
Jan. 46. n!iaQs central ban( may re#erse its rate increases to boost gro/th as inflation is sho/ing signs of easing, the &ritish &roa!casting Corp.
reporte! citing Go#ernor Du##uri -ubbarao. 1he central ban(Qs approach to managing inflation an! gro/th /ill be !ifferent in 4534, the &&C @uote!
-ubbarao in an inter#ie/ poste! on its /ebsite yester!ay. n!iaQs benchmar( /holesaleJprice inflation slo/e! to a oneJyear lo/ of <.33 percent in
%o#ember from <.PK percent in Bctober. n!iaQs inflation rea!ings in December /ere 7not encouraging,8 accor!ing to the statement from H-&C an!
Mar(it. nput price increases remaine! 7/ell abo#e historical le#els8 an! the in!e* of output prices rose to >=.4 from >>.6 in %o#ember, the statement
sho/e!. Asian Proliferation
The Asian econom! can han$le economic $ownt&rn
Asian societ! no $ate (7QResilientH Asia -houl! ,eather )conomic CrisisQ8 accesse! P:4:34
httpHEEasiasociet!.orgE%&sinessEeconomic?tren$sEresilient?asia?sho&l$?weather?
economic?crisis" EE CM
%), .BR2 J 1he Presi!ent of the Asian De#elopment &an( !escribe! Asia as /ell positione! to /eather the
current /orl! economic !o/nturn an$ sai$ the region sho&l$ Fa+oi$ a f&ll?fle$ge$ financial crisis.M -pea(ing at Asia -ociety
Hea!@uarters in %e/ .or(, Haruhi(o 2uro!a, a former -pecial A!#isor to Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro 2oiAumi, !iscusse! the impact of the
global financial crisis on Asia an! recommen!e! strategies that may help Asian countries /eather these challenging times. 2uro!a ac(no/le!ge! the
recent significant slo/!o/n in AsiaHs economic gro/th an! pre!icte! further !eterioration. Ho/e#er, he emphasiAe! that Asia to!ay is more
resilient to e*ternal shoc(s than it /as a !eca!e agoIan! cite! three reasons in support of his argument. 'irst, he sai!, Asia
to!ay has better Me*ternal positionsM an! large international reser#es. -econ!, the regionQs financial institutions
ha#e little !irect e*posure to "- prime mortgages an! structure! cre!it pro!ucts, the root causes of the current
turmoil. 1hir!, more pru!ent economic policies implemente! in most Asian countries since the 3<<P crisis
shoul! help mitigate the impact of e*ternal shoc(s. 2uro!a conclu!e! his remar(s by encouraging national an! regional collaboration
in Asia an! stressing the importance of multilateral ban(s to the region. As AsiaQs economy becomes more integrate!, he pre!icte!,
tra!e, !irect in#estment, an! social e*change /ill only increase, /hich in turn /ill be crucial for ensuring AsiaHs
continue! gro/th !uring a !ifficult perio!.
More e+
Oinh&a news 5P (4535J5OJ3< 3>94>933 7Asian economies resilient ami! crisis9 AD& report8
http9::ne/s.*inhuanet.com:english4535:business:4535J5O:3<:cF3K6>4>36.htm? :: CG
MA%+A, Aug. 3< (Xinhua? JJ Asian economies pro#e! to be resilient, posting mo!est gro/th e#en ami! last yearHs
global slo/!o/n, the Asian De#elopment &an( (AD&? sai! 1hurs!ay. Accor!ing to the 2ey n!icators for Asia an! the Pacific 4535,
AD&Hs flagship annual statistical publication, /hile gross !omestic pro!uct (GDP? gro/th rates /ere broa!ly lo/er across the region in 455<, larger
economies such as China an! n!ia still manage! to post healthy economic e*pansions. 1he AD& sai! go#ernment
stimulus spen!ing offset losses from !eclining e*ports. China, /hich is no/ the /orl!Hs secon! largest economy, poste! a <.3
percent gro/th in 455<. Another Asian po/erhouse, n!ia, poste! a P.6 percent GDP gro/th rate. Bther strong
performers inclu!e &angla!esh /ith a gro/th rate of >.P percent, Cietnam /ith >.K percent, an! n!onesia /ith
6.> percent. 1he AD& sai! that output in the region is !ominate! by ;ust three countries. China, n!ia, an!
Japan collecti#ely pro!uce P5 percent of the total. Mn terms of capital formation, China an! n!ia lea! the /ay, an! in the long run
this shoul! see them continuing to gro/ at faster rates than other large economies in the region, M AD& sai!. 1he ManilaJbase! len!er sai! pri#ate
consumption as a percentage of GDP in !e#eloping Asia remains relati#ely lo/ compare! to in!ustrialiAe! countries. Househol! sa#ings rates, ho/e#er,
are generally high. 1he AD& propose! that go#ernments in the region can encourage !omestic consumption by
promoting more social protection schemes. ncrease! !omestic spen!ing /ill cut !epen!ence on e*ports,
helping to rebalance gro/th, accor!ing to the AD&.
ASIAN 4A'
No 4ar
No ris# of Asian war , sta%ilit! now
Des#er @ =:4>, $&arry Des(er9 !ean of the -. Ra;aratnam -chool of nternational -tu!ies, %1" an! /rites for 1he -trait 1imes, 7,hy /ar is
unli(ely in Asia,8 http9::///.asiaone.com:%e/s:theL4&-traitsL4&1imes:-tory:A3-tory455O5=4>JP4P3=.html, AJ
1H) AsiaJPacific region is both a Aone of relati#e insecurity as /ell as one of relati#e stability. Bn the one han!, it
contains some of the /orl!Hs most significant flashpoints9 the 2orean peninsula, the 1ai/an -trait, the -iachen glacier. 1ensions bet/een nations at
these points coul! escalate into ma;or /ars. 1he region is also replete /ith bor!er issues, acts of terrorism an! o#erlapping maritime claims. t is a
strategically significant area, sitting astri!e (ey sea lines of communication an! important cho(eJpoints. %e#ertheless, the region is more stable
than one might belie#e. -eparatism remains a challenge, but the brea(Jup of states is unli(ely. 1he %orth
2orean nuclear issue, /hile not fully resol#e!, is mo#ing to/ar!s a conclusion /ith the li(ely !enuclearisation of the
peninsula. 1ensions bet/een China an! 1ai/an seem unli(ely to erupt into conflict, especially after the recent
#ictories of the 2uomintang in 1ai/an. 1he region also possesses significant multilateral structures such as the
AsiaJPacific )conomic Cooperation forum, the -hanghai Cooperation Brganisation, the nascent -i*JParty 1al(s
forum an!, in particular, Asean. &ut the rise of China $oes not a&tomaticall! mean that conflict is
li#el!. 'irst, a more asserti#e China !oes not mean a more aggressi#e China. &ei;ing appears content to press its
claims peacefully (if forcefully? through e*isting a#enues an! institutions. -econ!, /hen /e e*amine the Chinese
military buil!up, /e fin! that there may be less there than some might ha#e us belie#e. The Chinese war
machine is not .&ite as threatening J although still /orrisome J as some fear. nstea! of ,ashingtonHs perspecti#es shaping AsiaJ
Pacific affairs coerci#ely, the rise of China is li(ely to see a ne/ para!igm in international affairs. 1he nascent H&ei;ing ConsensusH, for /ant of a better
term, /oul! consist of the follo/ing attributes9 1he lea!ership role of the authoritarian state, a technocratic approach to
go#ernance, an emphasis on social rights an! obligations o#er in!i#i!ual rights, a reassertion of the principles
of national so#ereignty an! nonJinterference, support for freer mar(ets an! stronger regional an! international
institutions. 1he argument that there is an emerging H&ei;ing ConsensusH is not premise! on the rise of the H)astH an! !ecline of the H,estH, as
sometimes seeme! to be the subJte*t of the earlier 3<<5s HAsian #aluesH !ebate. &ut li(e the pre#ious !ebate, this ne/ !ebate /ill reflect alternati#e
philosophical tra!itions. At issue is the appropriate balance bet/een the rights of the in!i#i!ual an! those of the
state. 1his !ebate /ill highlight the #alues China an! other states in the region share. &y contrast, one con#entional
American #ie/ is that -inoJAmerican competition /ill result in Hintense security competition /ith consi!erable potential for /arH in /hich most of
ChinaHs neighbours H/ill ;oin /ith the "nite! -tates to contain ChinaHs po/erH. AsiaHs share! #alues are li(ely to re!uce the ris( of
such conflict an! result in regional pressure for an accommo!ation of an! engagement /ith China, rather than
a confrontation /ith it. n its interactions /ith the region, China itself is beginning to be intereste! in issues of
proper go#ernance, the !e#elopment of !omestic institutions an! the strengthening of regional institutions.
%or is Chinese policy unchanging, e#en on the issue of so#ereignty. 'or e*ample, there has been an e#olution in
Chinese thin(ing on the @uestion of free!om of passage through the straits of Malacca an! -ingapore. China
supporte! the claims of the littoral states to so#ereign control o#er the straits /hen the +a/ of the -ea
Con#ention /as conclu!e! in 3<O4. &ut its increasing !epen!ence on importe! oil shippe! through the straits
has le! to a shift in fa#our of bur!enJsharing, the recognition of the rights of user states an! the nee! for
cooperation bet/een littoral states an! user states. China has also re+ise$ its earlier a$+ocac! of strict
non?inter+ention an$ non?interference . ts support for global initiati#es such as peace(eeping an!
nuclear nonJproliferation J as /ell as its restraine! use of its #eto in the "% -ecurity Council an! its acti#e role in the
,orl! 1ra!e Brganisation J in!icates it is a/are that responsible participation in global institutions can shape
perceptions of a rising China. &ei;ing has also greatl! lowere$ the tone an$ rhetoric of its strategic
competition with the *S . 1his is significant as most -outhJeast Asian states prefer not to ha#e to choose
bet/een the "- an! China, an! ha#e a!opte! Hhe!gingH strategies in their relationships /ith the t/o po/ers. 1he
PeopleHs +iberation Army (P+A? is certainly in the mi!st of the most ambitious upgra!ing of its combat capabilities
since the early 3<=5s. ts current !efence !octrine is centre! on the ability to fight H+imite! +ocal ,arsH. 1he
emphasis is on preJemption, surprise an! shoc( #alue, gi#en that the earliest stages of conflict may be crucial to
the outcome of a /ar. 1hus the P+A has pursue! the ac@uisition of /eapons for asymmetric /arfare. t mimics the "- military in
terms of the ambition an! scope of its transformational efforts J an! therefore challenges the "- military at its
o/n game. %e#ertheless, China is still at least t/o !eca!es behin! the "- in terms of its !efence capabilities. t is
certainly ac@uiring ne/ an! better e@uipment, but its current military buil!up is in!icati#e of an e#olutionary,
stea!yJstate an! sustaining J rather than !isrupti#e or re#olutionary J inno#ation an! change. 4ar in the
Asia?Pacific is &nli#el!. &ut the emergence of )ast Asia, especially China, /ill re@uire a!;ustments by the ,est, ;ust as Asian societies ha!
to a!;ust to ,estern norms an! #alues !uring the American century.
/I(DI3E'SITI
Alt Ca&se
Deforestation ma#es %io$i+ersit! loss ine+ita%le
Car$illo 5D (Marcel, Di#ision of &iology, mperial College +on!on, 455=, 7Disappearing forests an!
bio!i#ersity loss9 /hich areas shoul! /e protectU,8 International Forestry Review Colume O, ssue 4,
http9::///.tempoan!mo!e.com:/pJcontent:uploa!s:455O:5P:intJforestryJre#ie/J;uneJ455=Jcar!illo.p!f,
Hensel?
The $estr&ction of forests an$ other ha%itats is the single most important ca&se of %io$i+ersit!
loss ("C% 4556?, an! it is ine#itable that the massi#e loss of forests that /ill occur o#er the ne*t fe/ !eca!es /ill result in
/i!esprea! e*tinctions. 1he magnitu!e of this impen!ing e*tinction e#ent can be estimate!, roughly, using the
speciesJarea relationship. 1he speciesJarea relationship !escribes the increase in species richness (-? /ith area of habitat (A?, /hich can usually
be mo!elle! as a po/er function of the form - Y cAA, the #alue of A in!icating the slope of the increase. 1he e*pecte! loss of species from time t to tZ3 can
therefore be estimate! as a function of habitat loss, using the e@uation -tZ3:-t Y (AtZ3:At?A. "sing this metho! it has been pre!icte!, for
e*ample, that en!emic mammal species richness in the &raAilian AmaAon coul! be re!uce! by >3OL un!er
!ifferent mo!elle! scenarios of forest loss to 4545 (Grelle 455>?.
/io$i+ersit! collapse is ine+ita%le , m&ltiple %arriers
E&ropean Commission 5@ (July 3P, 455O, 7Planning for the ine#itable9 the impact of climate change on
bio!i#ersity,8 http9::ec.europa.eu:en#ironment:integration:research:ne/salert:p!f:33=na=.p!f, Hensel?
Many scientific reports suggest that una#oi!able changes in climate /ill happen o#er the ne*t 65J>5 years as a
result of past emissions. Areas seen as most #ulnerable to climate change inclu!e the Me!iterranean an! southern )urope, mountain an! subJ
arctic areas, an! !ensely occupie! floo!plains an! coastal Aones. Annual temperatures coul! increase by 4.5J=.K !egrees
centigra!e by 4355. Rainfall coul! also increase by 3J4 per cent per !eca!e for northern )urope an! !ecrease by 3 per cent in
southern )urope. )#ents affecting habitats an! bio!i#ersity /ill inclu!e heat /a#es, !roughts, storms an! rising sea
le#els. 1he impact may cause species to mo#e to/ar!s the north an! an increase in e2tinction rates . Mitigation remains the
(ey focus of climate change policy, /ith less attention gi#en to un!erstan!ing ho/ to a!apt to ine#itable rising temperatures. 1he pressures of
climate change present a ma;or challenge, not ;ust for bio!i#ersity policy, but also for lan! use policy, /hich affects bio!i#ersity.
1he )"Qs 455= &io!i#ersity Communication an! its Action Plan set an agen!a for action to halt the loss of bio!i#ersity by 4535, as agree! in the
Gothenburg summit, 4553. Ho/e#er, bio!i#ersity continues to !ecline un!er pressure from lan! use change an!
!e#elopment. 'or e*ample, as /ater supplies for urban populations shrin(, buil!ing ne/ infrastructures may place stress on e*isting groun! an!
surface /ater systems an! the flora an! fauna that rely on it. 1he research 3 re#ie/e! lan! use plans an! policy in three countries9 'rance, the
%etherlan!s an! the "2. t loo(e! at their use of natural resources, management of /ater an! coastal Aones, plans for !esignate! sites an! case stu!ies
on urban, rural, inlan! an! coastal sites. 1he policies /ere e*amine! for their ability to account for bio!i#ersity a!aptation to climate change an! to
i!entify /ays of integrating [spatial planningQ an! bio!i#ersity policy. -patial planning has a broa!er sense than [lan! useQ, in that it accounts for all
acti#ities an! interests that concern a particular area. 1he authors foun! that although !ynamic bio!i#ersity is becoming more fully realise! in spatial
planning policy, e*isting )" !irecti#es such as the &ir!s Directi#e (C)C 3<P<?, the Habitats Directi#e (C)C 3<<4?, an! the %atura 4555 net/or( set up to
create a net/or( of protecte! sites, by themsel#es cannot fully protect lan!scape features necessary to support bio!i#ersity un!er a perio! of prolonge!
climate change. 1hey recommen! [climateJproofingQ plans through the use of )n#ironmental mpact Assessment an! -trategic )n#ironmental
Assessment. +an! use plans shoul! be integrate! /ith the a!option of common ob;ecti#es, time horiAons an! boun!aries. 1he stu!y also highlighte! the
nee! for more fle*ible responses to climate change, /ith sta(ehol!ers safeguar!ing habitats in bet/een protecte! areas. 1his /oul! result in more robust
conser#ation planning across /hole lan!scapes, re!ucing fragmentation of sites an! creating corri!ors an! net/or(s for /il!life. nternational
cooperation /as also foun! to be critical, as /il!life mo#es across national boun!aries. ntegration /ith agriculture, transport an! /ater sectors /oul!
also lea! to a better capacity to a!apt to climate change. &arriers to putting a fully effecti#e policy in place inclu!e9 planning timeJ
scales that are too short, a lac( of consensus on inter#ention measures, uncertainty on the actual impact of
climate change impacts, conflicts of interest an! public opinion /hich is sensiti#e to change, especially in treasure!
lan!scapes.
A&thor In$ict
Io&r a&thors- metho$s of calc&lating %io$i+ersit! fails
>a%er 5@ (,olfgang, Professor )meritus of ecology, 1echnische "ni#ersit\t M]nchen (Munich "ni#ersity of
1echnology?, 455O, 7&iological Di#ersity 0 a Concept Going AstrayU,8 GAA 3P:-3(455O?9 <30 <=,
ngentaConnect, Hensel?
The species approach to %io$i+ersit! hits &pon se+eral f&n$amental o%stacles. About t/o thir!s of
all species concern tiny animals, algae an! fungi that only a fe/ specialists can i!entify. Many other groups of
organisms, in particular the numerous, eco logically in!ispensable fungi an! microorganisms, e#en !efy a !istinction of species. -till
/orse9 the biological sub!isciplines of systematics an! ta*onomy, the only ones capable to in#estigate, i!entify an! classify the
huge !i#ersity of organisms 0 they ha#e, since +innaeusQ times, ne#er recei#e! sufficient personal an! financial means to comply
/ith these necessities (Glaubrecht 455P?, an! to!ay suffer from further re!uctions an! e#en closures. >ow man!
species ha+e e2iste$ an$ still e2ist on earth will ne+er %e #nownJ there are onl! spec&lati+e
estimates. 1heir number, ho/e#er, !epen!s on the species concept 0 a mental construct /ith /hich scientists are
al/ays grappling. +i#ing nature consists of innumerable in!i#i!ual organisms that ta*onomists compare /ith
each other for similarity of essential properties in or!er to assign them to 7species8. Rather easy as this may be /ith most
higher plants an! animals, it becomes e#er more !ifficult /ith lo/er an! smaller organisms li(e flies or mites. Depen!ing on choice an! /eight of criteria
for assigning an in!i#i!ual to a species, ta*onomists may create from 35 555 in!i#i!uals of flies or mites bet/een, for e*ample, >5 an! 3O55 species.
This alone is reason eno&gh to re8ect species n&m%ers as meas&res of %io$i+ersit!. .ou often rea! or
hear that bet/een K5 an! 455 species (the numbers #ary consi!erably? become e*tinct e#ery !ay. al/ays as( the authors of such statements to gi#e me
the names of at least fi#e to ten of those species, an! to e*plain their importance for the ecosystems /here they li#e 0 ne#er got an ans/er. &ut such
unsoun! an! erroneous argumentation for bio!i#ersity continues in spite of serious /arnings of scientists^
Di+ersit! isn-t Qe!
Dominant species are more important to ecolog! than $i+ersit!
Mo#ani et al 5@ (2arel, -chool of &otany an! _oology, Australia %ational "ni#ersity, $A%D Julian Ash,
-chool of &otany an! _oology, Australia %ational "ni#ersity, $A%D -tephen Ro*burgh, &ushfire Cooperati#e
Research Centre, -chool of &iological, )arth, an! )n#ironmental -ciences, "ni#ersity of %e/ -outh ,ales an!
)%--, May P, 455O, 7'unctional i!entity is more important than !i#ersity in influencing ecosystem processes
in a temperate nati#e grasslan!,8 Journal of )cology Colume <=, ssue >, ,iley, Hensel?
n conclusion, the results from our stu!y suggest that the traits of the $ominant species are of primar!
importance in $etermining the effect of the %iota on ecos!stem processes , supporting GrimeQs (3<<O?
mass ratio h!pothesis. 'unctional !i#ersity /as also important in some instances, in!icating that complementarity may
influence ecosystem processes, but not al/ays positi#ely. n contrast, /e foun! species richness to be relati#ely poor at
e*plaining #ariation in ecosystem processes. 1he results /e present suggest that changes in community !ominance
hierarchies !eser#e the greatest attention /hen managing communities for the maintenance of ecosystem
processes.
Di+ersit! $oesn-t affect ecolog!
Mo#ani et al 5@ (2arel, -chool of &otany an! _oology, Australia %ational "ni#ersity, $A%D Julian Ash,
-chool of &otany an! _oology, Australia %ational "ni#ersity, $A%D -tephen Ro*burgh, &ushfire Cooperati#e
Research Centre, -chool of &iological, )arth, an! )n#ironmental -ciences, "ni#ersity of %e/ -outh ,ales an!
)%--, May P, 455O, 7'unctional i!entity is more important than !i#ersity in influencing ecosystem processes
in a temperate nati#e grasslan!,8 Journal of )cology Colume <=, ssue >, ,iley, Hensel?
n contrast, tra!itional measures of community !i#ersity (i.e. richness, e#enness, -impsonQs !i#ersity? generally e*plaine! #ery
little #ariation in ecosystem processes ('ig. 3R 1able 4a,b?. (f partic&lar interest are the wea# relationships
%etween species richness an$ ecos!stem processes. -pecies richness has been a core focus of most early stu!ies e*amining
the interaction bet/een bio!i#ersity an! ecosystem processes, /ith much empirical research an! mechanistic theory !e#ote! to un!erstan!ing ho/ the
number of species in a community may influence ecosystem processes (-chmi! 4554R Hooper et al. 455>?. 1he /ea( relationships /e
obser#e! bet/een richness an! ecosystem processes suggest that the number of species present in a
community is li(ely to ha#e little !irect impact on ecosystem processes, an! that changes in the i!entity an!
abun!ance of the most !ominant species /ill be of far greater importance.
Traits $etermine the sta%ilit! of ecolog! not $i+ersit!
Mo#ani et al 5@ (2arel, -chool of &otany an! _oology, Australia %ational "ni#ersity, $A%D Julian Ash,
-chool of &otany an! _oology, Australia %ational "ni#ersity, $A%D -tephen Ro*burgh, &ushfire Cooperati#e
Research Centre, -chool of &iological, )arth, an! )n#ironmental -ciences, "ni#ersity of %e/ -outh ,ales an!
)%--, May P, 455O, 7'unctional i!entity is more important than !i#ersity in influencing ecosystem processes
in a temperate nati#e grasslan!,8 Journal of )cology Colume <=, ssue >, ,iley, Hensel?
Bur results in!icate that the mass ratio hypothesis (Grime 3<<O? pro#i!es a more appropriate frame/or( for e*plaining
ho/ the biota influences (ey ecosystem processes in comparison to the !i#ersity hypothesis, for the nati#e grasslan!
stu!ie!. Mean trait #alues best e*plaine! #ariation in fi#e of the eight ecosystem processes (1able 4a,bR 'ig. 3?, supporting GrimeQs (3<<O? hypothesis that
it is the traits of the most abun!ant species /hich largely !etermine ecosystem processes. Bur results correspon!
/ith pre#ious research !emonstrating the po/er of mean trait #alues to e*plain #ariation in (ey ecosystem processes (Garnier et al. 4556R Cile et
al. 455=?. 1he traitJbase! functional !i#ersity in!ices (especially 'D, 'DS an! 'D#ar? also performe! /ell, often approaching an!
occasionally e*cee!ing mean trait #alues in their e*planatory po/er (1able 4a,b?. Most notable of the functional !i#ersity in!ices
/as 'D#ar (Mason et al. 455K?, /hich e*plaine! more #ariation than any other !i#ersity measure for se#en of the eight ecosystem processes, an! ha! the
highest r4 #alues of all the !i#ersity:trait in!ices for three of the ecosystem processes (green shoot biomass, root biomass, soil moisture? (1able 4a,b?.
'unctional !i#ersity in!ices /hich /eigh the traits of species by the abun!ances of those species (namely 'RB, 'DS
an! 'D#ar? are essentially fusing elements of both the !i#ersity hypothesis an! the mass ratio hypothesis. mplicit in
these in!ices is the assumption that the !i#ersity of traits is important, but is relati#e to the abun!ances of the species possessing those traits (Ricotta
455>?. 1he fact that these !i#ersity measures ('RB, 'DS, 'D#ar? ten! to perform interme!iately bet/een the pure
!i#ersity in!ices (e.g. species richness? an! mean trait #alues supports our suggestion that it is the traits of the
abun!ant species that are most important in influencing ecosystem processes.
No E2tinction
No e2tinction
The Economist 5P (1he )conomist, January 3>, 455<, 7-econ! life9 &iologists !ebate the scale of e*tinction
in the /orl!Qs tropical forests,8 http9::///.economist.com:no!e:34<4=564, Hensel?
A RAR) piece of goo! ne/s from the /orl! of conser#ation9 the global e*tinction crisis may ha#e been o#erstate!. 1he /orl! is
unli(ely to lose 355 species a !ay, or half of all species in the lifetime of people no/ ali#e, as some ha#e claime!. 1he ba!
ne/s, though, is that the luc(y sur#i#ors are tiny tropical insects that fe/ people care about. 1he species that are being lost rapi!ly are the large
#ertebrates that conser#ationists /ere /orrie! about in the first place. 1his ne/ #ie/ of the prospects for bio!i#ersity emerge! from a
symposium hel! this /ee( at the -mithsonian nstitution in ,ashington, DC, but the contro#ersy o#er ho/ ba! things really are has
been bre/ing since 455=. 1hat /as /hen Joseph ,right of the -mithsonian 1ropical Research nstitute in Panama an! Helene MullerJ+an!au of the
"ni#ersity of Minnesota first suggeste! that the !amage might not be as grim as some feare!. 1hey reasone! that because population gro/th
is slo/ing in many tropical countries, an! people are mo#ing to cities, the pressure to cut !o/n primary
rainforest is falling an! agriculturally marginal lan! is being aban!one!, allo/ing trees to gro/. 1his regro/n
7secon!ary8 forest is crucial to the pairQs analysis. ,ithin a fe/ !eca!es of lan! being aban!one!, half of the original biomass
has returne!. Depen!ing on /hat else is nearby, these ne/ forests may then be colonise! by animals an! a!!itional
plants, an! thus support many of the species foun! in the original forest. Dr ,right an! Dr MullerJ+an!au therefore rec(on that in
45K5 reasonably unbro(en tropical forest /ill still co#er more than a thir! of its natural range, an! after that !ate its
areaIat least in +atin America an! AsiaIcoul! increase. Much of this /oo!lan! /ill be secon!ary forest, but e#en so they suggest that in Africa only 3=J
K>L of tropicalJforest species /ill become e*tinct by 45K5, in Asia, 43J46L an!, in +atin America, fe/er still. Bnce forest co#er !oes start
increasing, the rate of e2tinction sho&l$ $win$le .
Stat&s .&o technologies sol+e the impact
Carpenter 11 (Janet )., nformation -ystems for &iotechnology, Cirginia 1ech "ni#ersity, June 4533,
7mpacts of G) Crops on &io!i#ersity,8 -& %e/s Report, http9::///.isb.#t.e!u:ne/s:4533:Jun:mpactsJG)J
CropsJ&io!i#ersity.p!f, Hensel?
2no/le!ge gaine! o#er the past 3> years that G) crops ha#e been gro/n commercially in!icates that the impacts on %io$i+ersit!
are positi+e on %alance. &y increasing yiel!s, !ecreasing insectici!e use, increasing use of more
en#ironmentally frien!ly herbici!es, an! facilitating a!option of conser#ation tillage, G) crops ha#e
contribute! to increasing agricultural sustainability. Pre#ious re#ie/s ha#e also reache! the general conclusion that
G) crops ha#e ha! little to no negati#e impact on the en#ironment. Most recently, the ".-. %ational Research
Council release! a comprehensi#e assessment of the effect of G) crop a!option on farm sustainability in the ".-. that conclu!e!, 7DgEenerally,
DG)E crops ha#e ha! fe/er a!#erse effects on the en#ironment than nonJDG)E crops pro!uce! con#entionally8 P .
G) crops can continue to !ecrease pressure on bio!i#ersity as global agricultural systems e*pan! to fee! a /orl!
population that is e*pecte! to continue to increase for the ne*t K5 to 65 years. Due to higher income elasticities of !eman! an!
population gro/th, these pressures /ill be greater in !e#eloping countries. &oth current an! pipeline technology hol! great potential in this regar!. 1he
potential of currently commercialiAe! G) crops to increase yiel!s, !ecrease pestici!e use, an! facilitate the a!option of conser#ation tillage has yet to be
realiAe!, as there continue to be countries /here there is a goo! technological fit, but they ha#e not yet appro#e! these technologies for
commercialiAation. n a!!ition to the potential benefits of e*pan!e! a!option of current technology, se+eral pipeline technologies
offer a$$itional promise of alle+iating the impacts of agric&lt&re on %io$i+ersit!. Continue! yiel!
impro#ements in crops such as rice an! /heat are e*pecte! /ith insect resistant an! herbici!e tolerant traits
that are alrea!y commercialiAe! in other crops. 1echnologies such as !rought tolerance an! salinity tolerance
/oul! alle#iate the pressure to con#ert high bio!i#ersity areas into agricultural use by enabling crop pro!uction
on suboptimal soils. Drought tolerance technology, /hich allo/s crops to /ithstan! prolonge! perio!s of lo/ soil moisture, is anticipate! to be
commercialiAe! /ithin fi#e years. 1he technology has particular rele#ance for areas li(e subJ-aharan Africa, /here !rought is a common occurrence an!
access to irrigation is limite!. -alt tolerance a!!resses the increasing problem of salt/ater encroachment on fresh/ater resources. %itrogen use
efficiency technology is also un!er !e#elopment, /hich can re!uce runJoff of nitrogen fertiliAer into surface
/aters. 1he technology promises to !ecrease the use of fertiliAers /hile maintaining yiel!s, or increase yiel!s
achie#able /ith re!uce! fertiliAer rates /here access to fertiliAer inputs is limite!. 1he technology is slate! to be
commercialiAe! /ithin the ne*t 35 years.

/I(TE''('
Can-t *se Them
No %ioterrorism an$ no impact???m&ltiple o%stacles
Stolar D Bctober 455=, $Ale* -tolar9 Research Bfficer, nstitute of Peace an! Conflict -tu!ies, 7&B1)RRBR-M A%D "- PB+C. R)-PB%-)-
A--)--%G 1H) 1HR)A1 B' MA-- CA-"A+1.,8 http9::///.ipcs.org:p!fFfile:issue:3=><>==>43PC-J-pecialJReportJK3.p!f, AJ
)ach of these steps presents significant h&r$les for terrorists . Ac@uiring a strain of a Category A agent /hich
is significantly robust for storage, repro!uction, transport, an! !ispersal, an! /hich has the #irulence to infect
large numbers to inflict mass cas&alties is +er! $iffic&lt . +i(e/ise, gro/ing, storing, an! transporting
biological agents re.&ires s&%stantial financial logistical an$ technological reso&rces , as /ell as
highly traine! scientists an! technicians. Most of all, accor!ing to ,illiam Patric( of the "- Army &iological ,arfare +aboratories,
$issemination is the largest h&r$le for bioterrorism .6 n!ee!, after !e#oting billions of !ollars an! years of
research, !ispersal is still a challenge before "- an! Russian biological /eapons scientists. It is &nli#el! , at
this stage, that terrorists /ill ha#e the means, sophistication, logistics, or moti#ation to carry out a bioterrorist
attac(. Preparing biological agents for an attac( is +er! har$ an$ costl! . Despite spen!ing millions of
!ollars, an! se#eral years of /or(, the Aum -hinri(yo cult /as unable to !e#elop an effecti#e biological /eapon. +i(e/ise, the
4553 Anthra* attac(s in the "nite! -tates in#ol#e! #ery #irulent Anthra* spores, but only fi#e persons /ere (ille!.
More sophisticate! spores an! !ispersal metho!s /oul! be re@uire! for a mass causalty attac(. As Professor Milton
+eitenberg notes, apart from the Ra;neeshee cult attac( in 3<O6, /hich sic(ene! many, but (ille! none, 7there is apparently no other
[terroristQ group that is (no/n to ha#e successfully culture! any pathogen.8> Moreo#er, a lingering @uestion is, /hy /oul!
terrorists use bio/eapons in an attac(U )*ecuting a %iological weapon attac# is $iffic&lt an$ e2pensi+e ,
an! !oes not suit the mo!us operan!i of the sole group /ith the means to pursue bioterrorism, Al Sae!a. At present,
Al Sae!a fa#ors simple attac(s that generate great fear. <:33 /as e*ecute! /ith bo* cuttersR the Ma!ri! train attac(s
/ith !ynamite purchase! from petty criminals=R the +on!on P:P bombings utiliAe! simple e*plosi#es that coul! be fashione!
/ith easily a#ailable materials an! little e*pertisePR an! the terrorists in the recent plot to bomb flights from
+on!on to the "- inten!e! to use nail polish remo#er an! hair bleach.O Al Sae!a fa#ors creating great fear at
little cost . ,hy /oul! it stray from this effecti#e formula to bioterrorism /hich is e*pensi#e an! of
@uestionable reliabilityU< 1he una#oi!able conclusion is that only a nationJstate coul! con!uct a bio/eapon
attac(. Ho/e#er, a ta%oo against &sing %iological weapons e2ists Inot since ,orl! ,ar has one state
attac(e! another /ith biological /eapons. +i(e nonJstate actors, states seem to prefer the lo/er costs an! high
reliability of con#entional /eapons or e#en chemical /eapons. Accor!ingly, it seems the threat of %ioterrorism
in the near f&t&re is low . %either terrorists nor states seem li(ely to use bio/eapons for attac( . 1herefore,
though possible, it $oes not seem pro%a%le that a mass cas&alt! %ioterrorist attac# will occ&r o#er the
ne*t fi#e to ten years. t is unli(ely that states /ill use bio/eapons against other states. t is e@ually unli(ely
that states /ill use a terrorist organiAation as a con!uit to attac( another state. Bnly terrorist organiAations,
operating alone /ithin a /ea( or faile! state, /oul! !e#elop bio/eapons for an attac( against a state. Ho/e#er, terrorist
organiAations li(e Al Sae!a presently lac( the e*pertise, logistics, an! e@uipment for a bioterror attac(. n the ne*t
fi#e years, it is unli(ely that terrorists /ill ac@uire such capabilities. &eyon! that time frame, /hat stan!s bet/een terrorists an! potent bio/eapons are
the policies of in!i#i!ual states an! multilateral bio/eapon nonJproliferation regimes. f the policies of states an! the rele#ant
international regimes are robust, terrorists /ill be unable to mount bioterror attac(s. f, on the other han!, these policies
an! regimes are feeble, or e#en counterpro!ucti#e, the threat of bioterrorism /ill be real an! gra#e. 1he present circumstances pro#i!e
great reason for optimism. "nli(e nuclear terrorism, there is no imminent threat of %iological terrorism .
1houghtful an! effecti#e strategies implemente! to!ay can eliminate this threat. Ho/ often is this case true in
international securityU Ho/ often can strategists say, this threat coul! be !angerous in a !eca!e, but is not !angerous
no/, an! can be pre#ente! fore#er if the right steps are ta(enU Bne /oul! thin( that the /orl!, an! the "- in particular, /oul! seiAe this
opportunity to pre#ent this future threatR unfortunately, ho/e#er, AmericaQs bio!efense policies since <:33 are hurting rather than helping
efforts to minimiAe bioterrorism ris(s. &ioterrorism presents a gra#e, but not imminent threat to America an! the /orl!.
American lea!ership is nee!e! to ma(e sure terrorists ne#er ac@uire the ability to e*ecute a mass casualty
bioattac(. "nfortunately, AmericaQs bio!efense strategies are currently increasing the ris(s of bioterrorism. n the years ahea!, those American
lea!ers responsible for protecting the "- against bioterrorism shoul! hee! the ma*im /hich has ser#e! so many !octors so /ell for so long9 Primum non
nocere.
Io&r st&$ies are wrong
CACNP 15 3:4=, $C)%1)R 'BR ARM- CB%1RB+ A%D %B%JPRB+')RA1B%9 -C)%1-1- ,BR2%G GRB"P B% &B+BGCA+ A%D
CH)MCA+ ,)APB%-, 7&B+BGCA+ 1HR)A1-9 A MA11)R B' &A+A%C),8 http9::armscontrolcenter.org:policy:biochem:articles:&iological
L451hreatsL45JL45AL45MatterL45ofL45&alance.p!f, AJ
1he %ioterrorist threat has %een greatl! e2aggerate$ . %e/ bio/eapons assessments are nee!e! that
ta(e into account the comple* set of social an! technical issues that shape bio/eapons !e#elopment an! use by
state an! nonJstate actors, an! that focus on more plausible threats than the /orstJcase scenarios that ha#e
largely !ri#en !iscussion to !ate. Bffensi#e, inclu!ing terrorist, use of biological agents presents ma8or
technical pro%lems . 1his is /hy the -o#iet "nion, " nite! -tates, "nite! 2ing!om an! others nee!e! to spen! #ast
sums for !eca!es in or!er to research an! !e#elop biological /eapons. )#en then the results /ere consi!ere!
an unreliable form of /arfare, an! there /as little opposition to their elimination by international agreement (in!ee! the "- unilaterally
eliminate! its biological /eapons stoc(piles?. 1he effects of using biological materials, /hether on a large scale or a smaller
terrorist scale, are highl! &ncertain . Although the 4553 anthra* letters create! panic an! ha! a significant economic impact,
the n&m%er of $eaths an$ serio&s illnesses was +er! small . )*isting bio/eapons assessments focus on
a narro/ set of assumptions about potential a!#ersaries an! their technical capabilities. %e/ bio/eapons threat
assessments are nee$e$ that ta#e into acco&nt the more comple2 set of social an$ technical
iss&es that shape bio/eapons capabilities of state an! nonJstate actors an! that critically e*amine e*isting assumptions.
No %ioweapons &se???%arriers o+erwhelm
(&agrham?Mormle! 1= -onia &en BuagrhamJGormley is Assistant Professor in the &io!efense Program at George Mason "ni#ersity,
7&arriers to &io/eapons9 ntangible Bbstacles to Proliferation,8 nternational -ecurity, Colume K=, %umber 6, -pring 4534, pp. O5J336, p!f, AJ
1his article challenges the con#entional /is!om by sho/ing that the success of a %ioweapons program also $epen$s on
Aintangi%le factors ,8 such as /or( organiAation, program management, structural organiAation, an! social
en#ironment, that affect the ac@uisition an! efacient use of scientiac (no/le!ge. nJ!epth stu!ies of past /eapons
programs, inclu!ing the former -o#iet an! ".-. bio/eapons programs !escribe! in this article, re#eal that intangible factors can either
a!#ance or !egra!e a programQs progress. n a!!ition, the impact of these factors is felt more strongly /ithin clan!estine programs,
because their co#ertness imposes a!!itional restrictions on the use an! transfer of (no/le!ge, /hich more often than not frustrates progress. 1herefore,
focusing only on tangible !eterminants of proliferation can lea! to go#ernment policies that respon! ina!e@uately to the threat. 1o more accurately
i!entify the nature an! e#aluate the pace an! scope of future proliferation threats, an! conse@uently !e#elop more efacient nonproliferation an!
counterproliferation policies, scholars an! policyma(ers must inclu!e the intangible !imension of proliferation in their assessments. 1hey must also
un!erstan! the factors that !etermine the mechanisms an! the con!itions un!er /hich scientiac !ata an! (no/le!ge can be efaciently e*ploite!. n
455O the ,orl! at Ris(, an inouential report /ritten by a bipartisan commisJ sion chartere! by Congress to assess ".-. efforts in pre#enting /eapons of
mass !estruction (,MD? proliferation an! terrorism, pre!icte! that a bioterrorism e#ent /oul! li(ely ta(e place by 453K.6 ,ithout !o/nplaying the nuJ
clear threat, the report conclu!e! that a bio/eapons attac( /as more li(ely than a nuclear e#ent gi#en the a#ailability of material, e@uipment, an! (no/J
ho/ re@uire! to pro!uce bio/eapons. -ince 4553 a number of scientiac feats seem to illustrate the gro/ing ease /ith /hich potentially harmful
biomaterial can be pro!uce!. 1hese inclu!e the ina!#ertent creation of a lethal mousepo* #irus by Australian scientists in 4553R> the synthesis of the
polio#irus in 4554 by a team of scientists at the -tate "ni#ersity of %e/ .or( at -tonybroo(R= the construction in 455K of a bacteriophage (phiX? using
synthetic oligonucleoti!es by the Center nstitute, locate! in Roc(#ille, Marylan!R an! the synthesis of the arst selfJreplicating cell calle! Mycoplasma
mycoi!es JCCJsyn3.5 in May 4535.P 'urther pushing the scientiac en#elop, /or( begun in 455K by the synthetic biJ ology scientiac community to
pro!uce stan!ar!iAe! short pieces of D%A may promise a future in /hich biological agents can be assemble! much li(e +ego pieces for #arious purposesR
in a!!ition, synthetic D%A se@uences are no/ commercially a#ailable, an! the cost an! time re@uire! to pro!uce biomaterial ha#e !ecrease! sharply in
recent years. 'inally, /ith the automation of #arious processes, ne/ technologies ha#e the potential to simplify scientiac /or( an! re!uce the nee! for
s(ille! personnel.O Another challenge in using othersQ scientiac !ata is that tacit #nowle$ge $oes not transfer
easil!. t re@uires pro*imity to the original source(s? an! an e*ten!e! masterJapprentice relationship.3< -cientiac an! technical
(no/le!ge is also highly local9 it is !e#elope! /ithin a speciac infrastructure, using a speciac (no/le!ge base,
an! at a speciac location. -ome stu!ies ha#e sho/n that the use of !ata an! technology in a ne/ en#ironment fre@uently
re@uires a!aption to the ne/ site.45 -uccessful a!aptation often re@uires the in#ol#ement of the original scientiac author(s? to gui!e the
a!;ustment. 'or instance, some of the problems encountere! !uring the pro!uction of the -o#iet anthra* /eapon /ere
sol#e! only after the authors of the /eapon in Russia tra#ele! to 2aAa(hstan to assist their colleagues. 1hese
in!i#i!uals traine! their colleagues, transferring their tacit (no/le!ge in the process, an! helpe! a!;ust the
technical protocols to the 2aAa(h infrastructure, /hich /as substantially !ifferent from that of the Russian facility. )#en /ith the
presence of these original authors, a#e years /ere nee!e! to complete the process of successful transfer an! use of bio/eapons technology.43 A
further complication is that tacit (no/le!ge can !ecay o#er time an! may !isappear if not use! or transferre!.
-tu!ies ha#e sho/n that trying to reJcreate lost (no/le!ge can be !ifacult, if not impossible.44 'inally, (no/le!ge
an! technology !e#elopment, particularly in comple* technological pro;ects, is rarely the /or( of one e*pert.
nstea! it re@uires the cumulati#e an! cooperati#e /or( of teams of in!i#i!uals /ith speciac s(ills. 1his is
particularly true in /eapons programs, /hich pose a #ariety of problems spanning many !isciplines. 'or e*ample,
biological /eapons !e#elopment can in#ol#e mechanical an! electrical engineering, chemistry, statistics,
aerobiology, an! microbiology, !eman!ing large inter!isciplinary teams of scientists, engineers, an!
technicians. A successful /eapon, therefore, is not the pro!uct of an in!i#i!ual scientist /or(ing alone, but that of
the collecti#e /or( of those in#ol#e! in the research, !esign, an! testing of the /eapon.4K n this conte*t, the efacient
use of /ritten technical !ata /oul! re@uire access to or reJcreation of the collecti#e e*plicit an! tacit (no/le!ge of those in#ol#e! in its !e#elopment,
ma(ing the repro!ucibility of an e*periment or ob;ect particularly challenging. )*ternal factors can also interfere /ith the use an!
transfer of (no/le!ge. n the biological sciences, the properties of reagents an! other materials use! in scientiac e*periments may !iffer from
one location to another an! may #ary seasonally. An e*periment con!ucte! successfully in one location may not be repro!ucible in another because of
the #arying properties of the material use!, e#en /hen the same in!i#i!ual con!ucts the e*periment.46 Bther e*ternal factors that cannot
be easily i!entiae! or @uantiae! can also interfere /ith an e*periment, e#en /hen the tas( is performe! by an
e*perience! scientist or technician /ho has ha! pre#ious successes in performing the tas(.4> 'or e*amJ ple, /ithin the
".-. bio/eapons program, the pro!uction an! scaling up of biJ ological material /ere routinely sub;ect to
&ne2plaine$ fail&res whene+er pro$&ction was interr&pte$ to ser+ice or $econtaminate the
e.&ipment. Bn these occasions, plant technicians at 'ort Detric(Ithe main facility of the ".-. bio/eapons programIe*perience!, on a#erage,
three /ee(s of unsuitable pro!uction. 1he scientiac staff coul! not i!entify the causes of such routine failures an! coul! only assume that either a
contaminant ha! been intro!uce! !uring the ser#ice or cleanup, or that the technicians change! the /ay they /ere !oing things an! unconsciously
correcte! the problem only after se#eral /ee(s.4= 1he case of the -o#iet bio/eapons program !emonstrates that co#ertness imJ poses huge constraints
on (no/le!ge management an! has important impliJ cations for the e#aluation of state an! terrorist clan!estine efforts to pro!uce bio/eapons. Bne may
/on!er, ho/e#er, /hether the lessons learne! from the historical analysis of the ".-. an! -o#iet programs apply to current co#ert proJ grams. -tates
an! terrorist groups coul! arguably limit their biological en!ea#ors to pro!ucing a small number of /eapons
base! on a small number of pathogens. n a!!ition, they coul! beneat from recent technological a!#ances, /hich, by automating #arious
tas(s, sharply re!uce the nee! for s(ille! perJ sonnel, as /ell as the time an! cost re@uire! to complete scientiac /or(. PubJ licly a#ailable !ata
regar!ing recent terrorist an! state biological /eapons programs, ho/e#er, suggest that e#en at a lo/er scale,
biological /eapons en!ea#ors are highly inouence! by some of the same intangible factors that affecte! the
".-. an! -o#iet programs. n a!!ition, stu!ies on the use of ne/ automate! e@uipment in microbiology, as /ell as analyses of recent e*periJ
ments that seemingly illustrate the ease an! spee! /ith /hich biological !eJ #elopments can be achie#e!, ha#e sho/n that these too are sub;ect to the
cumulati#e an! cooperati#e /or( of scientists an! re@uire the creation of ne/ s(ills. &elo/, assess the role of intangible factors in t/o cases9 the
bio/eapJ ons programs of the terrorist group Aum -hinri(yo an! -outh Africa. then !iscuss the !ifaculties associate! /ith the use of ne/ technology
an! the hi!J !en contingencies of recent scientiac e*periments. 1he ".-. an! -o#iet bio/eapons programs offer #aluable insights
for assessing future bio/eapons proliferation threats. Certainly, the globaliAation of the pharmaceutical an!
biotechnology in!ustries has enable! an increasingly /i!esprea! !iffusion of information, materials, an!
e@uipment that coul! pro#e beneacial to states or terrorist groups intereste! in !e#eloping biological /eapons.
&ut although such inputs are necessary, they are har$l! s&facient to pro$&ce a signiacant weapons
capa%ilit!. As !emonstrate! in the ".-. an! -o#iet cases, such intangible factors as organiAational ma(eup an! manageJ
ment style greatly affect the use of ac@uire! (no/le!ge, the creation of tacit (no/le!ge, an! its transfer /ithin
the organiAation to enable ultimate success. mportantly, these intangible elements are local in character an!
cannot be easJ ily transferre! among in!i#i!uals or from one place to another. Although the effects of intangible factors are
more pronounce! in largeJscale bio/eapons programs, gi#en the increasing comple*ity intro!uce! by the nee! to pro!uce a
teste! /eapon /ith repeatable results, they also affect smallerJscale state an! terrorist group programs, as
illustrate! by -outh AfricaQs an! Aum -hinri(yoQs programs. )#en programs /ith more mo!est ambitions nee! to ac@uire the
e*J pertise re@uire! to han!le, manipulate, an! !isseminate the agents selecte!, create an en#ironment
con!uci#e to team/or( an! learning, integrate the acJ @uire! (no/le!ge into the e*isting (no/le!ge base, an!
a!apt the technology to their en#ironment. 1hese are comple* an! timeJconsuming tas(s for proJ grams
operating in a stable en#ironment. 'or co#ert programs fearful of !etecJ tion, the tas( is ma!e more challenging as the
imperati#es of maintaining co#ertness !irectly contra!ict the re@uirement of efacient (no/le!ge use an!
pro!uction. 1he re#olution in biotechnology has not re!uce! the importance of the inJ tangible factors that shape
bio/eapons program outcomes. Although ne/ brea(throughs in biotechnology can fre@uently accelerate
progress in laboraJ tory /or(, these ne/ techni@ues still !epen! hea#ily on teams of scientists an! technicians
!e#eloping ne/ sets of s(ills through e*tensi#e e*perimenJ tation. Bnly in this /ay can they !emonstrate the utility of these ne/
brea(throughs for particular applications. 1hus, by ta(ing into account the inJ tangible !imension of proliferation, intelligence an! policy
ofacials can un!erJ stan! more holistically ho/ a state or terrorist group can actually use the tangible resources
they may ha#e ac@uire!. !eally, !e#eloping a more thorJ ough un!erstan!ing of a programQs e*isting research an!
(no/le!ge base, as /ell as ho/ the program is organiAe! an! manage!, /ill pro#i!e intelligence an! policy ofacials /ith a
better analytical basis for !etermining the time reJ @uire! for the program to achie#e its goal. 1his in turn /ill
help policyma(ers fashion inter#entions that are most appropriate to respon! to speciac threats. Gathering
information about these intangible factors is !epen!ent on intelliJ gence efforts, an! this article pro#i!es
insights into ho/ better collection an! analysis on ,MD threats might be accomplishe!. Ho/e#er, actions against a
suspecte! program can beneacially be implemente! e#en in the absence of !eJ taile! information about its (no/le!ge base an! organiAational ma(eup. A
policy aime! at frustrating the ac@uisition of s(ills, the collecti#e interpretation an! integration of !ata an! in!i#i!ual
(no/le!ge, an! the accumulation of (no/le!ge can !elay progress in a suspecte! program an! possibly cause
its failure. M&ch wor# still nee$s to %e $one to f&rther ill&minate the mechanics of weapons
$e+elopment. t is important, for instance, to gain a better un!erJ stan!ing of the inner /or(ings of past state bio/eapons programs an! to
i!entify the role that sociotechnical an! organiAational factors ha#e playe! in inouencing these programsQ achie#ements. Past an! suspecte! terrorist
proJ grams shoul! also be re#isite! to in#estigate the impact of organiAational factors on their ability to !e#elop /eapons. t is also essential to more
systemJ atically i!entify the contingencies associate! /ith ne/ technologies an! other laboratory techni@ues to better un!erstan! the con!itions of their
use an! the mechanism of their transfer to a ne/ location or for a !ifferent use. 1he role of ne/ technologies in such e*periments
shoul! also be systematically stu!ie! to !etermine /hether they actually eliminate the nee! for specialiAe!
s(ills or /hether they re@uire the !e#elopment of ne/ s(ills. 1his ne/ line of in@uiry coul! help political science an! policy
scholars further e*ten! counterproliferJ ation an! counterterrorism scholarship in ne/ !irections an! support the !e#elopment of more effecti#e /ays to
target an! !isrupt co#ert bio/eapons programs.
E+en if terrorists ha+e %ioweapons the! can-t possi%l! $isperse them
Smithson 56 Amy )., PhD, pro;ect !irector for biological /eapons at the Henry +. -timson Center.( 7+i(elihoo! of 1errorists
Ac@uiring an! "sing Chemical or &iological ,eapons8. http9::///.stimson.org:cb/:U-%YC&45533434><?::M-B
Terrorists cannot co&nt on ;ust filling the $eli+er! s!stem with agent pointing the $e+ice an$
flipping the switch to acti+ate it. Facets that m&st %e $eciphere$ incl&$e the concentration of
agent in the !eli#ery system, the wa!s in which the $eli+er! s!stem $egra$es the potenc! of the agent,
an! the right $osage to incapacitate or #ill human or animal targets. For open-air delivery, the meteorological
con$itions m&st %e ta#en into acco&nt. /iological agents ha+e e2treme sensiti+it! to s&nlight
h&mi$it! poll&tants in the atmosphere temperat&re an$ e+en e2pos&re to o2!gen all of which
can #ill the micro%es. &iological agents can be !isperse! in either !ry or /et forms. "sing a !ry agent can boost effecti#eness
because !rying an! milling the agent can ma(e the particles #ery fine, a (ey factor since particles must range bet/een 3 to 35 ten
microns, i!eally to 3 to >, to be breathe! into the lungs. Dr!ing an agent ho/e#er, is $one thro&gh a comple2 an$
challenging process that re.&ires a sophistication of e.&ipment an$ #now?how that terrorist
organi;ations are &nli#el! to possess. The alternati+e is to $e+elop a wet sl&rr!, /hich is much easier
to pro!uce but a great $eal har$er to $isperse effecti+el!. ,et slurries can clog sprayers an! un!ergo mechanical stresses that
can (ill <> percent or more of the microorganisms.
Too man! technical %arriers to terrorists $ispersing %ioweapons
4ashington Post 50 J John MintA, staff /riter, 71echnical Hur!les -eparate 1errorists 'rom &io/arfare
http9::///./ashingtonpost.com:/pJ!yn:articles:AK>533J4556Dec4<.html?::M-B
n =55= a panel of bio/arfare e*perts conclu!e! in a report coJpublishe! by the %ational Defense "ni#ersity (%D"" that /hile
terrorists coul! mount some smallJscale bioattac(s, larger assaults /oul! re@uire them to o#ercome many
technical hur!les. -ome (ey biotechnologies /oul! be achie#able only three to four years from then, the panel foun!. M,hen /e sent out the report
for re#ie/ to Dhan!sJonE bench scientists, /e got the response, H,hat !o you mean /e canHt !o thisU ,eHre !oing it no/,H M sai! Raymon! _ilins(as, a coJ
author of the report /ho hea!s bio/arfare stu!ies at the Center for %onproliferation -tu!ies, a California thin( tan(. Mt sho/s ho/ fast the fiel! is
mo#ing.M 1hose s(eptical of the prospect of largeJscale bioattac(s cite the tiny number of biological stri(es in
recent !eca!es. Members of the Ra;neeshee cult sic(ene! P>5 people in 3<O6 /hen they contaminate! sala! bars in 35 Bregon restaurants /ith
salmonella. Among the fe/ others /ere the 4553 anthra* attac(s through the ".-. mail that (ille! fi#e people. Bne reason for the small
number of attac(s is that nearly e#ery aspect of a bioterroristHs ;ob is !ifficult. The best chance of acquiring the anthrax
bacterium, &acillus anthracis is either from commercial culture collections in countries with lax security controls, or by digging in soil where livestock
recently died of the disease JJ a tactic Aum -hinri(yo trie! unsuccessfully in the Australian Butbac(. Once virulent stocks of anthrax
have been cultured it is no tri#ial tas( to propagate pathogens /ith the re@uire! attributes for an
aerosoliAe! /eapon9 the har!iness to sur#i#e in an enclose! container an! upon release into the atmosphere,
the ability to lo!ge in the lungs, an! the to*icity to (ill. 1he particlesH siAe is crucial9 f they are too big, they fall
to the groun!, an! if they are too small, they are e*hale! from the bo!y. f they are improperly ma!e, static
electricity can cause them to clump. Ma(ing a bug that !efeats antibiotics, a !esire! goal for any bio/eaponeer, is relati#ely
simple but can require laborious trial and error, because conferring antibiotic resistance often re!uces
a bio/eaponHs (illing po/er. 'iel!Jtesting germ /eapons is necessary e#en for e*perience! /eapons ma(ers, an! that is li(ely to re@uire open
spaces /here animals or e#en people can be e*perimentally infecte!. )ach bioagent !eman!s specific /eather con!itions an!
re@uires unforgi#ing specifications for the spraying !e#ice employed. "Dry" anthrax is harder to make it requires special
equipment, and scientists must perform the dangerous !ob of milling particles to the right si"e. "#et" anthrax is easier to produce but not as easily
dispersed. )*perts agree that anthrax is the potential masscasualty agent most accessible to terrorists. 1he anthra* letter sent in 4553 to thenJ-enate
Minority +ea!er 1homas A. Daschle (DJ-.D.? containe! one gram of anthra*, or 3 trillion spores.
SC Sol+es
S.&o sol+es???new efforts
Mottron R Shea 11 4:O, $'ran( Gottron an! $$Dana A. -hea are -pecialists in -cience an! 1echnology, Congressional Research -er#ice,
7'e!eral )fforts to A!!ress the 1hreat of &ioterrorism9 -electe! ssues an! Bptions for Congress,8 http9::///.fas.org:sgp:crs:terror:R6334K.p!f, AJ
1he fe$eral go+ernment-s %io$efense efforts span man! agencies an$ +ar! wi$el! in their
resources, scope, an! approach. 'or e*ample, the Departments of -tate an! Defense ha#e cooperate! /ith foreign
go#ernments an! nongo#ernmental organiAations to engage in nonproliferation, counterproliferation, an!
foreign !isease outbrea( !etection efforts.P 1he Departments of -tate an! Commerce ha#e strengthene! e*port
controls of materials that coul! be use! for bioterrorism.O 1he Department of Health an! Human -er#ices (HH-? has ma!e
in#estments in public health prepare!nessR response planningR< foreign !isease outbrea( !etectionR35 an!
research, !e#elopment, an! procurement of me!ical countermeasures against biological terrorism agents (see
7Me!ical Countermeasures8 belo/?.33 1he intelligence community has engage! in intelligence gathering an! sharing
regar!ing bioterrorism.34 1he Department of Justice performs bac(groun! chec(s on people /ho /ant to
possess certain !angerous pathogens.3K 1he Department of Homelan! -ecurity (DH-? has engage! in prepare!ness,
response, an! reco#eryJrelate! acti#ities,36 !e#elope! increase! capabilities in en#ironmental biosur#eillance
(see 7&iosur#eillance8 belo/?, an! in#este! in e*pan!ing !omestic bioforensics capabilities.3> 1he )n#ironmental Protection Agency ()PA? has
e*plore! postJe#ent infrastructure !econtamination.3= Many agencies, ;ointly or separately, ha#e in#este! in
e*pan!e! bio!efense infrastructure, inclu!ing public an! pri#ate highJcontainment laboratories for research,
!iagnostic, an! forensics purposes.3P +astly, the )*ecuti#e Bffice of the Presi!ent an! other e*ecuti#e branch
coor!inating groups ha#e engage! in ris( assessment an! strategic planning e*ercises to coor!inate an!
optimiAe fe!eral in#estment against bioterrorism an! response capabilities.3O -ome scientists ha#e criticiAe! the fe!eral
in#estment in bio!efense countermeasures. 1hey claim that the relati+e threat of %ioterrorism $oes not
8&stif! the large in+estment in %io$efense an! that these efforts /oul! pro#i!e greater benefits if
!irecte! to other areas of research an! !e#elopment, such as more con#entional public health threats.>P A!!itionally, Congress has
@uestione! the balance of in#estment among the #arious stages of research an! !e#elopment, i!entifying fun!ing gaps that may pose barriers to the
con#ersion of research results into !eployable countermeasures. Congress also i!entifie! !eficiencies in e*ecuti#e branch management of the
countermeasure !e#elopment process. 1hese obser#ations le! Congress to establishDe!E &ARDA to fun! an! coor!inate the
con#ersion of promising research results into !eployable pro!ucts.>O As a single entity, the fe$eral go+ernment is
%! far the largest proc&rer of %ioterrorism me!ical countermeasures. t stoc(piles countermeasures an!
(eeps them rea!y for !eployment to respon! to a bioterrorism e#ent.=4 1he relati#ely small mar(et for most bioterrorism
countermeasures pro#i!es little incenti#e for companies to in#est in !e#eloping a countermeasure /hen compare! /ith the larger potential mar(et of
other pro!ucts of the same in!ustry, such as antiJcholesterol !rugs. 1he fe!eral go#ernment has e*perience! !ifficulties in obtaining !esire!
countermeasures because of this relati#ely small mar(et. 1he e*ecuti#e branch an! Congress ha#e ta(en se#eral steps to encourage companies to enter
the me!ical countermeasure fiel!. 1hese acti#ities inclu!e pro#i!ing liability protection to companies !e#eloping me!ical countermeasures,
guaranteeing a go#ernment mar(et for countermeasures, an! more clearly communicating the go#ernmentQs countermeasure nee!s an! priorities.=K
1hese efforts ha#e met /ith mi*e! success.=6 n the face of a nee! for me!ical countermeasures against emerging natural threats, such as pan!emic
influenAa, HH- has also in#este! in me!ical countermeasure infrastructure to pro#i!e a more rapi! response.=> 1he
HH- has also planne! a publicJpri#ate partnership that /oul! create fle*ible manufacturing infrastructure to
lo/er barriers to !esire! countermeasure manufacture.==
CCP INSTA/I)ITI
No Collapse
Past reforms ma#e Chinese sta%ilit! ine+ita%le
China Dail! 11 (7China is stable, confi!ent.8 K:43. http9::///.china!aily.com.cn:opinion:4533J5K:43:contentF34455>6>.htm?
-ocial an! political turbulence is roc(ing some Mi!!le )ast an! %orth African countries, ma(ing many international obser#ers speculate about the
situation in China. ChinaHs political an! social lan!scape is stable because of three !eca!es of reform an! openingJup, says an article in PeopleHs Daily.
)*cerpts9 1he Communist Party of China (CPC? has been committe! to transforming the countryHs lea!ership,
impro#ing go#ernance accor!ing to the nee!s of the people at the time e#er since launching reform an!
openingJup. 1han(s to the lessons from history, the CPC has been ta(ing measures since the 3<O5s to reform the
lea!ership system, an! establish a retirement, succession, an! collecti#e lea!ership system. 1he (ey to maintaining
political stability is in#iting all the people to participate in politics. 1he CPC an! the go#ernment (no/ that if people are barre!
from participating in politics, their #oices /ill not be hear! an! interests not safeguar!e!, an! that coul! lea!
to turbulence. 1he CPC an! the go#ernment lea!ers are committe! to guaranteeing peopleHs participation in
politics by perfecting the electoral systems of the %ational PeopleHs Congress an! Chinese PeopleHs Political
Consultati#e Conference. n fact, they are reforming the entire political system an! ma(ing themsel#es open to
super#ision by the public an! the me!ia, promoting innerJparty !emocracy an! accor!ing priority to public opinion. China has been
un!ergoing mar(etJoriente! economic reform o#er the past three !eca!es. n 3<<4, China formally ma!e the mar(et the
basic mechanism for resources allocation an! #o/e! to buil! a #ibrant socialist mar(et economy. t is committe! to opening up to the
outsi!e /orl!, an! its accession to the ,orl! 1ra!e BrganiAation further accelerate! its integration into the /orl! economy. 1han(s to the
reform, longJterm economic gro/th has greatly enhance! ChinaHs national strength. t no/ has enough
financial resources to buil! a social security system co#ering the entire population, impro#e the social security, health an!
e!ucation systems, an! allocate more fun!s for the !e#elopment of poor areas. 1here is no !oubt that Chinese people /ant stability,
to cash in on the historic opportunity for !e#elopment, !e#elop the economy, impro#e the li#ing stan!ar!s of the people an! enhance national strength.
mplementing these reforms is not easy. &ut the CPC an! the go#ernment are confi!ent of !oing so /ith the total support of
the people. 1hough many of the changes the lea!ership has brought /ere seen as impossible in the beginning, they are a reality to!ay. -ome
international obser#ers, ho/e#er, are still not a/are of that reality, or simply !o not /ant to accept that China has ma!e great progress in economic an!
political fiel!s. China may face many !ifficulties, e#en setbac(s, in implementing many of the reforms. &ut the CPC an! the go#ernment are
confi!ent of o#ercoming them on the /ay to buil!ing a socialist, harmonious society. 1he abo#e facts sho/ that the
situation in China is totally !ifferent from that in some of the Mi!!le )ast an! %orth African countries. China has chosen an inclusi#e path
of reform, an! economic, social an! political !e#elopment. Reform an! openingJup an! the rapi! pace of
!e#elopment ha#e built a soli! institutional foun!ation an! infrastructure, /hich pro#i!e economic, social an!
political stability.
CCP will ne+er collapse? the regime contin&all! a$apts.
>s& @ (-AuJchienJ0 Assistant Research 'ello/, nstitute of Political -cience at Aca!emia -inica, )!ite! by .uan, 7Crossstrait at the 1urning Point,8
Chapter P, Pg 364J366, http9::iir.nccu.e!u.t/:attachments:research:publication:crossstraitFatFtheFturningFpoint:chP.p!f? RA
t is un!eniable that the CCP regime has in recent years a!opte! many ne/ political reforms to strengthen its
ruling capacity an! legitimacy, such as allo/ing a competiti#e election at the grassroots le#el, rationaliAing
a!ministrati#e structure, strengthening party an! a!ministrati#e super#ision, or e#en allo/ing citiAens to be
in#ol#e! in certain participatory channels to influence policy ma(ing an! local lea!ing official nomination. 1he
a!apti#e, fle*ible, an! e#en responsi#e nature of these reforms has change! the e#aluation of ,estern scholars on the sustainability, stability, or e#en
legitimacy of the CCP regime. An!re/ %athan has characteriAe! the CCP regime as achie#ing 7authoritarian resilience8 /hich he hel! /ill not
!emocratiAe but /ill not be immune from challenges for its sur#i#al either. << Regar!ing ho/ the regime enhances its legitimacy by institutionaliAing
more channels for input, %athan i!entifie! four ma;or institutions e*cept for the much mentione! competiti#e #illage election9 the 7A!ministrati#e
+itigation +a/,8 the 7lettersJan!J#isits8 (*infang?, the PeopleQs Congress an! "nite! 'ront, an! the me!ia as tribunes of the people. 355 &ruce Dic(son
!etecte! that the CCP regime has been a!apti#e in creating ne/ inclusi#e institutions such as coJoptional an!
corporatist arrangements for ne/ economic an! social elites /hile maintaining e*clusi#e measures for
unsanctione! social elements so that the political monopoly of its +eninist PartyJ-tate can en!ure. 353 Da#i!
-hambaugh belie#e! that, although the CCP regime is both e*periencing 7atrophy8 an! a!opting 7a!aptation8 at the
same time, so far the CCP regime has !one fairly effecti#ely in its a!aptation to cope /ith the challenges of
atrophy, 354 an! /ill e#entually e#ol#e incrementally into a ne/ (in! of partyJstate, the 7eclectic state.8 35K -usan -hir( also foun! the CCP
regime has been surprisingly resilient in ma(ing use of these measures to stall the threat from public unrest,
an! may be capable of sur#i#ing for years to come as long as the economy continues to gro/. 356 Dali .ang
offere! a more optimistic #ie/. As obser#e! by him, the CCP regime has ma!e a /i!e range of go#ernance
reforms inclu!ing a!ministrati#e rationaliAation, !i#estiture of businesses operate! by the military, an! the buil!ing of anticorruption mechanisms, to
strengthen the capacity to cope /ith unruly mar(ets, curb corruption, an! bring about a regulate! economic or!er. 35> 1hese efforts ha#e
helpe! CCP regime to impro#e its go#ernance @uality, /hich /as inten!e! to (eep its monopoly of political
po/er instea! of regime transition, an! probably /ill succee! in !oing so in the interme!iate term, accor!ing
to .ang. 35= As -tephen ,hite once pointe! out, those communist regimes that a!opte! consultati#e or
7fee!bac(8 capacities of their systems ten! to allo/ their lea!erships to re!uce the ris( of popular !iscontent
an! earn legitimacy. 35P -uch an enhance! legitimacy of the communist regime has been !etecte! in China. -hi
1ian;ian an! Chen Jie both obser#e! in their sur#ey that the CCP regime en;oys relati#ely high public support. 35O A recent Pe/ sur#ey also sho/s that
O=L of the sur#eye! Chinese population is satisfie! /ith the !irection of the country, /hich ran(s number one
among all the sur#eye! 46 countries. 35<
China is politicall! sta%le? recent reforms an$ politicians want sta%ilit!
Patil 11J D Reshma PatilR staff /ritierR ,en !eclares China is stable Reshma Patil, Hin!ustan 1imes &ei;ing, March 3>, 4533
http9::///.hin!ustantimes.com:/orl!Jne/s:RestBfAsia:,enJ!eclaresJChinaJisJstable:Article3J=PK>56.asp*E
,a#ing a re! pencil, Premier ,en Jiabao on Mon!ay rule! out comparisons bet/een China an! countries battling
re#olts against authoritarian regimes. &ut min!ful of issues sto(ing !omestic !iscontent, the populist face of the politburo promise! a
turnaroun! in &ei;ingQs economic planning to no longer [/orship GDPQ but see( balance! gro/th an! greater inno#ation insi!e the /orl!Qs number t/o
economy. 7,e ha#e follo/e! closely the political turbulence in some countries in ,est Asia an! %orth Africa,QQ ,en sai! in his annual me!ia conference.
7t is not right to !ra/ an analogy bet/een China an! those countries.8 ,en sai! that the Chinese citiAens are a/are that the last
three !eca!es of economic reform mar(e!ly impro#e! their li#es. 7China is still ta(ing e*ploratory steps in
reform,QQ he sai!, a!!ing that the Chinese !e#elopment path is Hnot a mo!elH. He /as spea(ing after the Chinese legislature
appro#e! a fi#eJyear plan focuse! on a P per cent annual GDP goal (compare! to the a#erage P.>JO per cent target? aiming at
greener an! more balance! !e#elopment. China routinely e*cee!s its annual singleJ!igit GDP target for brea(nec( !oubleJ!igit
e*pansion. ,hile assuring that economic restructuring /oul! be a [priorityQ, he /arne! of the challenges of controlling inflation, income ine@ualities,
housing prices an! creating ;obs in the /orl!Qs most populous !e#eloping nation. 7-e#en per cent is not a lo/ target,QQ he sai!. 7t /ill not be an easy
tas(.8 -pea(ing in measure! /or!s JJJ [inflation is li(e a tiger that once set free cannot be cage!Q JJJ the Premier sai! he ha! a [hea#y
agen!aQ that inclu!e! political reforms before he retires in t/o years. 7 belie#e reform is an eternal theme of history,QQ he sai!.
7,ithout political restructuring, the achie#ements ma!e in economic restructuring may be lostVBnly an open an!
inclusi#e society can be strongV,e must gi#e full play to peopleQs in!epen!ent thin(ing an! creati#ity.QQ +ast year, ,en ma!e
similar remar(s on political reformR some /ere censore! /ithin the Communist PartyJrun me!ia. 1his time, he ma!e it clear that any political reform
/oul! be un!erta(en [in an or!erly manner un!er the Party lea!ership,Q ruling out ma;or changes in go#ernance or e*pan!ing !irect elections beyon!
#illages. +ast /ee(, top legislator ,u &angguo also ma!e it clear in more emphatic terms that China /ill not a!opt a
multiJparty system to a#oi! chaos an! an Habyss of internal !isor!erH. )conomic reform /ill also mo#e on
ChinaQs terms. 1he Chinese currency renminbi /ill not appreciate as rapi!ly as the /orl! !esires because a gra!ual appreciation, sai! ,en, suits
the interests of Chinese businesses an! [social stabilityQ.
No Impact
No impact to CCP insta%ilit! , there-s h&ge room for growth an$ reform
'achman 9E1P Gi!eon Rachman, chief foreignJaffairs columnist at the 'inancial 1imes. 7A political crisis /ill not stop China,8
http9::///.ft.com:intl:cms:s:5:O<<6cfc=JP3b>J33e3JbO>KJ55366feab6<a.html`a*AA3plphCb-2 Accesse! =:46:34 &JM
My boo(Jshel#es in +on!on groan /ith titles such as )clipse9 +i#ing n the -ha!o/ of ChinaQs )conomic Dominance an! ,hen China Rules the ,orl!.
&ut tra#el to China itself, an! you /ill fin! plenty of people /ho are sceptical about the notion that the country is a rising superpo/er. 1he sceptics are
not ;ust ;aun!ice! /estern e*pats or frustrate! Chinese liberals. ,en Jiabao, the countryQs prime minister, !oes a pretty goo!
;ob of tal(ing !o/n the Chinese miracle. He has calle! the countryQs economic gro/th 7unbalance! an!
unsustainable8. +ast /ee(, he /arne! that if China !oes not push ahea! /ith political reform, it is #ulnerable to
another 7cultural re#olution8 that coul! s/eep a/ay its economic gains. Mr ,enQs comments /ere s/iftly follo/e! by the fall
from grace of &o Xilai, the contro#ersial Communist party boss in Chong@ing. 1his outbrea( of highJle#el political infighting has been seiAe! upon by
ChinaJsceptics as further e#i!ence that the countryQs muchJ#aunte! stability is a myth. -o /ho is rightU 1he people /ho thin( China is a rising
superpo/er, or those /ho insist that it is a !eeply unstable countryU B!!ly enough, they are both correct. t is clearly true that China has
enormous political an! economic challenges ahea!. .et future instability is highly unli(ely to !erail the rise of
China. ,hate#er the /ishful thin(ing of some in the /est, /e are not su!!enly going to /a(e up an! !isco#er that the
Chinese miracle /as, in fact, a mirage. My o/n scepticism about China is tempere! by the (no/le!ge that analysts in the /est
ha#e been pre!icting the en! of the Chinese boom almost since it began. n the mi!J3<<5s, as the Asia e!itor of 1he
)conomist, /as perpetually running stories about the inherent instability of China 0 /hether it /as !ire pre!ictions about the fragility of the ban(ing
system, or reports of sa#age infighting at the top of the Communist party. n 455K, purchase! a muchJacclaime! boo(, Gor!on ChangQs, 1he Coming
Collapse of China 0 /hich pre!icte! that the Chinese miracle ha! fi#e years to run, at most. -o no/, /hen rea! that ChinaQs ban(s are near collapse,
that the countrysi!e is in a ferment of unrest, that the cities are on the brin( of en#ironmental !isaster an! that the mi!!leJclasses are in re#olt, am
tempte! to ya/n an! turn the page. really ha#e hear! it all before. .et, it is e@ually har! to belie#e that either the Chinese economic or political systems
can continue along the same lines in!efinitely. Rapi!, e*portJ!ri#en gro/th of OJ< per cent a year is not sustainable fore#er.
An! ChinaQs political system loo(s increasingly anachronistic, as !eman!s for !emocracy sprea! aroun! the
/orl!. Mr ,en /as probably implying as much last /ee(, /hen he sai! that the Arab peopleQs !eman! for !emocracy 7must be respecte! an! cannot
be hel! bac( by any force8. t is clearly true that China has #ery !ifficult political an! economic transitions ahea!. 1here are, ho/e#er,
encouraging prece!ents from the rest of Asia. -outh 2orea an! 1ai/an ha#e both mo#e! from fairly brutal oneJ
party states to functioning !emocracies 0 an! from lo/Jcost manufacturing to highJtech consumerism. 1he sheer scale of China 0 an! its
uni@uely traumatic history 0 /ill ma(e the countryQs political an! economic transformation that much har!er. n particular, if China /ere to mo#e
to/ar!s free elections, it /oul! almost certainly see the rise of separatist mo#ements in 1ibet an! Xin;iang. Gi#en the !epth of Chinese nationalism, it is
unli(ely that these /oul! be treate! /ith subtlety or sensiti#ity. As /ell as struggling to preser#e the countryQs territorial integrity, a more !emocratic
China /oul! fin! itself coping /ith all sorts of barelyJsuppresse! social tensions 0 particularly if it scraps restrictions on mo#ement bet/een the
countrysi!e an! cities. .et e#en if one en#isages the #eryJ/orst case scenario 0 the outbrea( of a ci#il /ar 0 that nee! not mean
that China /ill fail to ma(e it to superpo/er status. f you !oubt it, consi!er the rise of the last emerging
superpo/er to sha(e the /orl!. 1he "- fought a ci#il /ar in the 3O=5s 0 an! yet /as the /orl!Qs largest
economy by the 3OO5s. Br ta(e Germany an! Japan9 countries that /ere !efeate! an! !e#astate! in a /orl! /ar 0 yet /hich s/iftly resume!
their positions among the /orl!Qs lea!ing economies. ,hat the "-, Germany an! Japan ha! in common is that they ha!
!isco#ere! the formula for a successful in!ustrial economy 0 something that seems to be able to sur#i#e any
amount of turmoil. After more than K5 years of rapi! economic gro/th, it is clear that China too has mastere! the formula. -ome China sceptics
prefer to compare the countryQs rapi! gro/th to that of the -o#iet "nion or to Japan in the 3<O5s. &ut the "--RQs inefficiency /as !isguise! because it
ne#er compete! on /orl! mar(ets9 China, by contrast, is alrea!y the /orl!Qs largest e*porter. As for the Japanese bubble, that burst /hen the country
/as alrea!y far richer on a perJcapita basis than China is no/. 1he Chinese economy, because it is relati#ely poor, still has huge
scope for mo!ernisation. n politics, as in economics, ChinaQs /ea(nesses also hint at untappe! potential. As last /ee(Qs
infighting illustrate!, the country is still bur!ene! /ith an immature political system. f an! /hen China achie#es the
7fifth mo!ernisation8, as the !issi!ent ,ei Jingsheng once calle! !emocracy, it /ill ha#e surmounte! the biggest
remaining obstacle to superpo/er status.
C>INA D())A' D*MPINM
No Dollar D&mping
China won-t $ollar $&mp
C/S 5P (Charles ,allace, senior staff /riter, April < 455< 7,hy China ,onHt Dump the Dollar Any 1ime
-oon8 httpHEEwww.c%snews.comE@951?6561=9S1D=?9DL05=51Ewh!?china?wont?
$&mp?the?$ollar?an!?time?soonE" EE CM
1hereHs been a lot of tal( lately about ho/ unhappy China has become about its financial !epen!ence on the ".-. Chinese Premier ,en Jibao
sai! he /as a Mlittle bit /orrie!M about ChinaHs huge in#estments in the ".-., an! the Chinese central ban( e#en suggeste! that it
might be a goo! i!ea if the ".-. !ollar /as no longer the international reser#e currency. .ou may be /on!ering /hat e#ents >,555 miles a/ay might ha#e
to !o /ith the American consumer. As it turns out, there are t/o big /ays in /hich Chinese actions coul! hit Americans in the poc(etboo(9 'irst, an!
most ob#ious, are the repercussions shoul! the !ollar fall significantly against the Chinese yuan. 1hat /oul! mean higher prices in stores li(e ,alJMart
an! 1arget, /hich import lots of goo!s from China. -econ!, an! potentially much more serious, China coul! gro/ so concerne! about its
in#estments in ".-. 1reasury bon!s that it might stop buying them JJ an! coul! e#en start selling. 1hat /oul! force
up ".-. interest rates, hobbling the go#ernmentHs efforts to stimulate the economy /hile also ma(ing car loans an! cre!it car! interest much more
e*pensi#e. 1hat too coul! lea! to a !ecline in the #alue of the !ollar, causing inflation in the ".-. to spi(e up/ar!. HereHs /hy !onHt thin( either
scenario seems li(ely. 1he first is the Chinese ha#e huge reser#es of ".-. in#estments. Accor!ing to &ra! -etser, an aca!emic /ho closely follo/s /hat
the Chinese !o /ith their money, the Chinese o/n about TP>5 billion in ".-. 1reasuries, /i!ely consi!ere! the safest form of !ebt, T>55 billion /orth of
bon!s from go#ernmentJcontrolle! mortgage len!ers 're!!ie Mac an! 'annie Mae, T3>5 billion of ".-. corporate bon!s an! T355 billion in American
stoc(s. f China let the yuan rise against the !ollar, all those in#estments /oul! be /orth less in ChinaHs o/n currency. %ee!less to say, thatHs not
e*actly in ChinaHs best interest. Ho/e#er, li(e e#ery in#estor in America, the Chinese ha#e recently /atche! their ".-. bon! an! stoc(
hol!ings !ecline sharply in #alue. 1hose losses, in fact, /ere probably /hat ,en ha! in min! /hen he opene! his mouth, not ".-. 1reasuries. Anyone
/ith large hol!ings of ".-. 1reasuries luc(e! out this year, as they /ere among the /orl!Hs best performing assets. ,hile some pun!its ha#e e*presse!
the #ie/ that the Chinese ha#e fallen in a !ollar trap in /hich the Chinese ha#e no choice but to maintain their ".-. in#estments,
thin( they ma!e an e*tremely goo! in#estment !ecision. ,as this an acci!ent by &ei;ingU 1he Chinese li(ely un!erstoo! that there
/as some ris( in their !ollar in#estments, especially those #olatile stoc(s, an! ha#e since scale! bac( those in#estments (li(e many American in#estors?,
accor!ing to -etAer. &ut China also (no/s that hol!ing all those !ollars is goo! policy because that props the #alue of
the !ollar against the Chinese currency. A strong !ollar ma(es Chinese e*ports cheap for American consumers. As a result, a huge
e*port boom lifte! the Chinese economy o#er the past three !eca!es. 1hatHs also /hy the Chinese are unli(ely
to shift out of !ollars into another reser#e currency. ,hat /oul! it beU 1he Chinese plan, outline! by the countryHs central ban(
go#ernor, _hou Xiaochuan, suggeste! replacing the !ollar /ith special !ra/ing rights, or -DRs, a hypothetical currency use! by the nternational
Monetary 'un!. -DRs are basically a bas(et of currencies JJ !ollars, yen, &ritish poun!s, an! euros. ,hile -DRs ha#e most fallen out of fa#or, thereHs
nothing to stop the Chinese from !i#ersifying their huge reser#es into these other three currencies. &ut they ha#enHt. nstea! they ha#e opene! soJcalle!
s/ap arrangements /ith a fe/ countries li(e Argentina, n!onesia an! Malaysia. "n!er these !eals, China has lent an estimate! T355 billion /orth of
yuan to these countriesH central ban(s so that importers in those places can buy !irectly from China /ithout using !ollars. tHs an early sign the Chinese
are trying to !i#ersify a/ay from !ollarJ!enominate! tra!e an! bears /atching. &ut so far they in#ol#e only a tiny component of ChinaHs e*port mar(et,
/hich continues to !epen! hea#ily on the ".-. an! )urope. +i(e in#estors /orl!/i!e, the Chinese remain afrai! that the ".-. /ill !e#alue the !ollar #ia
inflation JJ in essence, by printing of trillions of !ollars to pay for huge bu!get !eficits. Perhaps itHs not suprising that they shoul! e*press a Mlittle /orryM
about their massi#e !ollar hol!ings. f the ".-. !ollar !eclines, theyHll be among the first to be impacte!. Despite those /orries, though, China is
increasing its ".-. 1reasury hol!ings, a sign that they still ha#e confi!ence in the ".-. go#ernment an! its
ability to repay its !ebts. %o other currency is so /i!ely use! in tra!e, an! all ma;or commo!ities are still price!
in !ollars. As a result, itHs still in ChinaHs best interest to maintain a ma;ority of its assets in !ollars.
China-s econom! $epen$s on the $ollar which means the! won-t $ollar $&mp
'e&ters LE6E1= (_hou Xin an! Alan ,heatley 7China /onHt !ump ".-. 1reasuries or pile into gol!8
httpHEEwww.re&ters.comEarticleE=515E5LE5LE&s?china?econom!?reser+es?
i$*ST'EDDD53C=5155L5L"EE CM
n the thir! in a series of statements e*plaining its /or( to the Chinese public, the -tate A!ministration of 'oreign )*change sought to allay concerns in
the outsi!e /orl! that arise /hene#er &ei;ing shifts its hol!ings of ".-. go#ernment !ebt. MAny increase or !ecrease in our hol!ings of
".-. 1reasuries is a normal in#estment operation,M -A'), the arm of the central ban( that manages ChinaHs official currency reser#es,
sai!. t sai! it constantly a!;usts its portfolio to ma*imimiAe returns, an! any changes to its ".-. 1reasury
portfolio shoul! be seen in that light an! not interprete! politically. n a series of @uestions an! ans/ers poste!
on its /ebsite, ///.safe.go#.cn, -A') as(e! rhetorically /hether China /oul! use its T4.6> trillion stoc(pile of
reser#es, the /orl!Hs largest, as a Mnuclear /eapon.M -A') sai! such concerns /ere completely un/arrante!.
M1he ".-. 1reasury mar(et is the /orl!Hs largest go#ernment bon! mar(et, an! ".-. 1reasury bon!s !eli#er fair goo! security, li@ui!ity an! mar(et
!epth /ith lo/ transaction costs. M1he ".-. 1reasury mar(et is a #ery important mar(et for China,M the agency sai!. China hel!
T<55.4 billion in ".-. 1reasuries at the en! of April, accor!ing to ".-. 1reasury !ata release! on June 3>. &an(ers say ChinaHs total hol!ings of
!ollarJ!enominate! assets are much greater, accounting for perhaps t/oJthir!s of its reser#es.
C>INA ENC'(AC>MENT (N 'FE
No Attac#
China will ne+er attac# the '&ssian Far East,it wo&l$ %e $iplomatic an$ militar! s&ici$e
MEN(N =559 (Ra;an, Monroe J. Rathbone Professor of nternational Relations at +ehigh "ni#ersity, 1he %ational nterest, 'all?
&y contrast, ChinaHs military, /hich /as @uite recently a giant hor!e of foot sol!iers, is mo!erniAing stea!ilyJchiefly /ith Russian
/eaponry, much of it supplie! from cashJstar#e! military in!ustries in 2habaro#s(, 2omsomolHs( an! Cla!i#osto(. t may lag far behin! the "nite!
-tates, but in force pro;ection, spee!, accuracy an! lethality it is a /holly !ifferent force than it /as a !eca!e ago, than(s to Russian fighter ;ets,
submarines, tan(s an! missiles, many of them built in the Russian 'ar )ast. .et the chances that China /ill attempt to con@uer
RussiaHs 'ar )ast are slim. -uch a braAen po/er play /oul! !amage ChinaHs /i!er interests. 1ai/an might
recoil in terror an! treat &ei;ingHs proposals for a negotiate! reunification /ith e#en greater s(epticism an!
/ariness. 1he pre#ailing ,estern rationale for economic engagement /ith ChinaJthat commerce /ill transform an! coJopt
that countryJ/oul! be shre!!e!. China /oul! li(ely face a counterbalancing, encircling coalition of the "nite!
-tates, n!ia, Japan, Russia an! Cietnam. ,oul! such setbac(s ;ustify the bur!ens of ruling the #ast, problemJinfeste! Russian 'ar )astU
1he Chinese lea!ers (no/ their -un 1Au9 /hat they see( from the Russian 'ar )ast (access to resources an! a benign northern front?
can be ha! by means of sil(Jglo#e! hegemony. Chinese interests can be ser#e! /ithout its formal occupation of
the territory. n!ee!, /hat may emerge coul! be a Mre#erse ManchurianM scenario, /here the Russian 'ar )ast
remains a titular part of Russia but is increasingly integrate! into &ei;ingHs sphere of influence. 1hat is precisely /hat
the conspiracy among geography, !emography, po/er an! time may create in RussiaHs 'ar )ast.
C>INA >EMEM(NI
Peacef&l
China rise will %e peacef&l? empirics
/ha#al 1=(MaitreyaJ 'reelance ,riter at A&-A- -olutions P#t. +t!. 7'i#e reasons /hy China /ill not in#a!e 1ai/an, an! an analysis of CrossJ
strait Relation.8 http9::in!iaschinablog.blogspot.com:4533:5O:analysingJcrossJstraitJrelationsJan!J>.html?
China is one of the fe/ rising po/ers in the /hole of human history to announce peaceful intentions an! no
!esire to rule or establish hegemony o#er the /orl!. n /hat might come as a shoc( to most people /ho consi!er me!ia reports as a
te*tboo( for Chinese foreign policy, China has, on the /hole, been a peaceful nation an! has not engage! in military
action unless pro#o(e!. An! the military action that it has been in#ol#e! in in its mo!ern history has been
e*tremely limite! in its !uration an! ob;ecti#es. &arring a misa!#enture /ith Cietnam in 3<P< (/hich /as also @uite limite!?, China
has only use! /ar as a last resort, /hen it /as left /ith no other alternati#e. Resolutions of boun!ary !isputes
can be generally consi!ere! as a fun!amental in!ication /hether a country is pursuing e*pansionist or peaceful
policies (/hich is one reason /hy a thorough analysis of ChinaQs bor!er !isputes has been neglecte! by almost all /estern me!ia outlets an! analysts?.
China has ha! the highest number of bor!er !isputes of any country in the /orl! an! /ith no intention of
li#ing in an unfrien!ly atmosphere o#er a peace of lan!, has successfully han!le! an! offere! substantial
compromises (this is the other reason? in most of them. China bor!ers 36 countries by lan!R an! as a result of territorial !ismemberment an!
une@ual treaties, the PRC go#ernment, /hen it came into po/er, foun! itself in#ol#e! in territorial !isputes /ith all of them. 1he /ay in /hich
China resol#e! those !isputes stan!s as testimony to its !esire of peace at any cost an! ser#es as an e*ample to other
countries. China has, in the interests of peace an! stability on its bor!ers, a!opte! a negotiation tactic fa#orable to
ri#al claimants that other countries /oul! !o /ell to emulate. Many of these claimants /ere countries much /ea(er than China.
China /as un!er no obligation to offer such substantial compromises. 1he portion of lan! that China recei#e! in bor!er settlements /ith #arious
neighbouring countries is as follo/s. Afghanistan J 5L 1a;i(istan 0 6L %epal 0 =L &urma 0 3OL 2aAa(hstan 0 44L Mongolia 0 4<L 2yrgyAstan 0 K4L
%orth 2orea 0 65L +aos 0 >5L Cietnam 0 >5L Russia 0 >5L Pa(istan 0 >6L -ome of this lan! /as strategically important (such as the ,a(han
corri!or that /as !ispute! /ith Afghanistan? an! e*tremely rich in resources (such as the Pamir mountain range in case of 1a;i(istan?. China has also
not reiterate! its claims on a ma;ority of the territory /hich /as seiAe! from it by the une@ual treaties (e#en if it meant being cut off from the strategic
-ea of Japan?. n the map belo/, the gray area /as part of China /hen the Sing !ynasty /as at its height, an! then /as snatche! a/ay from it !ue to
une@ual treaties. China has pursue! claims on no more than PL of these territories. China has generally been (no/n to attac( /hen it
has been ta(en a!#antage of or construe! as /ea(, or /hen the enemy /as at its #ery !oorstep, such as !uring the 2orean /ar. 1he
-inoJn!ian /ar of 3<=4 stan!s as a te*tboo( e*ample of this strategy. %ehru, the then n!ian PM, re;ecting all Chinese offers for negotiations,
constitute! a 7'or/ar! Policy8 of pushing for/ar! to enemy lines an! ma!e belligerent statements about China (7 ha#e or!ere! the army to thro/ the
Chinese out8?, implicitly announcing n!ian intentions to attac(. -ome of the n!ian outposts establishe! un!er this policy /ent e#en further then
Chinese ones. China, correctly interpreting these actions as hostile an! #ie/ing n!ia through the prism of &ritish imperialist intentions on 1ibet (as
n!ia ha! ma!e itself the &ritish successor in all matters regar!ing 1ibet an! China?, ma!e multiple !iplomatic protests against the 'or/ar! Policy, but
%ehru ignore! them an! ne#er thought that China /oul! ha#e the guts to attac(. After China finally !i! attac( an! occupie! the !ispute! areas, it
!eclare! a unilateral ceasefire an! /ith!ra/ to preJ/ar status @uo bor!ers /ithout occupying an inch of territory. Hence, Chinese intentions /ere ;ust to
;ust n!ia a lesson. t ha! no interest in occupying any territory.
C>INA?INDIA 4A'
No 4ar
No In$ia?China war
Tri%&ne 11 34:3, $1ribune %e/s -er#ice, 7n!iaJChina /ar unli(ely, says e*pert 2anti &a;pai,8
http9::///.tribunein!ia.com:4533:45333454:mainK.htm, AJ
+isting possible reasons, Professor 2anti &a;pai, a scholar on international relations, has claime! that a /ar bet/een n!ia an! China is
unli(ely unless one country gets highly pro#ocati#e. -pea(ing at the nstitute of Defence -tu!ies an! Analyses (D-A? last e#ening, he
buttresse! his argument saying there are at least four reasons /hich /ill hol! bac( the t/o neighbours on their respecti#e si!e of the Himalayas. &a;pai
sai! though /ar is al/ays a possibility, it seems &nli#el! %etween In$ia an$ China . 1here are least four reasons that
/ill hol! bac( the either si!e. 1hey are9 &oth si!es are e@uippe! /ith nuclear /eapons, meaning thereby that they /ill
ha#e to e2ercise e2treme ca&tion R &oth si!es ha#e air po/er that /ill ma(e a con#entional /ar of any
$&ration an$ $ecisi+eness +er! $iffic&lt R China has the a!#antage of the heights on the 1ibetan plateau,
but its ability to sen! large forces into n!ia in this sector is limite$ %! geographical constraints an!
China /ill not be able to hol! bac( a counter attac( by the A' as its supply routes can be easily inter!icte!.
+astly, 1ibetan instability /ill pre#ent China from opting for /arfare against n!ia. 1he t/o countries ha#e
/or(e! consistently since 3<OO to put in place a !iplomatic, political, military, an! economic system to
maintain stability an! lay the foun!ation for a bor!er settlement. He stresse! that the system has four components J
%or$er negotiations high?le+el s&mmits confi$ence?%&il$ing meas&res an$ %ilateral tra$e J an!
referre! to them as pillars. -ince 3<OO, there ha#e been more summits bet/een the presi!ents, PMs an! foreign ministers than in the pre#ious
65 years. %% Cohra, Go#ernor of JW2 an! a former Defence -ecretary an! Home -ecretary, chaire! the session an! suggeste! that the lea!ership
of n!ia an! China shoul! put together an approach /hich is, among other things, harmonious /ith the n!iaJ
China !efence strategy an! e*ternal affairs. This will strengthen the relationship %etween the two
nations . &oth si!es ha#e nuclear /eapons, meaning thereby that they /ill ha#e to e*ercise e*treme caution.
&oth ha#e air po/er that /ill ma(e a con#entional /ar of any !uration an! !ecisi#eness #ery !ifficult. China
has the a!#antage of height on the 1ibetan plateau, but its ability to sen! large forces into n!ia in this sector is
limite! by geographical constraints. 1ibetan instability /ill pre#ent China from opting for /arfare against
n!ia.
C>INA?<APAN 4A'
No 4ar
No China?<apan war
/&siness P&n$it 15 <:3K, 7,hy ChinaJJapan -pat ,onQt +ea! to ,ar,8 http9::///.businesspun!it.com:/hyJchinaJ;apanJspatJ/ontJlea!JtoJ
/ar:, AJ
+ast 1ues!ay, a Chinese fishing boat colli!e! /ith Japanese coast guar! boats near the tiny Diaoyutai slan!s (as
theyQre (no/n to 1ai/an. China calls them the Diaoyu. Japan calls them the -en(a(u. All three countries claim them as their o/n.? Japan too( the
captain an! cre/ of the fishing boat hostage. t release! the cre/ to!ay, but the captain an! boat remain in custo!y, pen!ing a Japanese
in#estigation. 1he arrests un!erline an ongoing po/er struggle bet/een the t/o Asian superpo/ers, /ith China increasingly on the offensi#e. &ut,
accor!ing to the Global PostQs Jonathan A!ams, China an! Japan are too economicall! inter$epen$ent to ris# a f&ll?
scale conflict9 &ut a serious military sho/!o/n is unli(ely, for many reasons. Perhaps the most important is the
unprece!ente! economic ties bet/een )ast AsiaQs t/o big po/ers. n 455P, China s&rpasse$ the *.S. as
<apan-s top economic partner. -ince then, the t/o countries ha#enQt loo(e! bac(9 1/oJ/ay tra!e hit a recor!
of nearly T365 billion in the first half of this year, a K6.> percent ;ump from the same perio! last year,
accor!ing to Japanese go#ernment figures. JapanQs e*ports to China are rising e#en faster than its imports, !ue
to rising Chinese consumption that sho/s ChinaQs increase! importance as a mar(et, not ;ust the /orl!Qs
factory. All of /hich suggests that <apan has a strong interest in resol+ing the c&rrent spat .&ic#l!, an!, to the
e*tent possible, to &ei;ingQs satisfaction.
C>INA P())*TI(N
China-s Fi2ing Now
China is committe$ to controlling poll&tion now? r&ral areas
Oinh&a 9?1=?1= DRural Chinese pollution to be monitore! soon )nglish.ne/s.cn 4534J5KJ34 5<966944
http9::ne/s.*inhuanet.com:english:china:4534J5K:34:cF3K36=3466.htmE
China aims to finish buil!ing a nation/i!e net/or( to monitor air @uality in its #ast rural areas by the en! of
the year, an en#ironmental researcher sai!. 1he construction of the net/or( sho/s China is e*ten!ing its
pollutionJbusting !ri#e to rural #illages, /here en#ironmental protection a/areness is /ea(est, sai! ,en Xiangcai, of
the China %ational )n#ironmental Monitoring Center. ,en, also a member of the countryHs top political a!#isory bo!y, sai! China ha! alrea!y
begun to choose one rural spot in each pro#ince, municipality an! autonomous region for the settingJup of air
monitoring stations. M1hrough the stations, /e /ill collect the !ata that forms the basis for pollution
pre#ention an! control,M ,en sai!, a!!ing that all stations /ill be set up before the en! of 4534. As China is strengthening
pollution control in cities, some small, hea#ily polluting enterprises /ill shift to rural areas, bringing much
pressure to the en#ironment of ChinaHs countrysi!e, accor!ing to ,en. A nation/i!e pollution sur#ey con!ucte! by the
Ministry of )n#ironment Protection in 4533 sho/e! that rural areas account for 6K percent of the nationHs chemical o*ygen
!eman! !ischarges, >P percent of its nitrogen !ischarges an! =P percent of its phosphorus !ischarges. M&ringing pollution in rural
areas un!er control is a pressing tas(,M ,en sai!. 1he central go#ernment has in recent years beefe! up measures
to control pollution in rural areas. ts fun!ing for such initiati#es ;umpe! from >55 million yuan (P<.K= million ".-.
!ollars? in 455O to <.> billion yuan in 4533. 1he ne*t step, sai! ,en, is to Mtrain more en#ironmental professionals to
strengthen technical sur#eillance an! e*pan! a!#ertisements about en#ironmental protection.M
China imposing strict en+ironmental controls now
Oinh&a 11-[China sets 2011 pollution control goal, warns of challenges English.news.cn 2011-01-1
21!00!10 "http!##news.$inhuanet.com#english2010#china#2011-01#1#c%1&'(&0(.htm)
1he Chinese go#ernment has set its 4533 target to re!uce the emission of four ma;or pollutants, cutting them
by 3.> percent year on year. 1hese main pollutants are Chemical B*ygen Deman! (CBD?, sulfur !io*i!e, ammonia nitrogen, an! nitrogen
o*i!e. Ammonia nitrogen an! nitrogen o*i!e /ere ne/ly a!!e! to the countryHs ma;or pollutants monitoring list
in accor!ance /ith its en#ironmental protection plan from 4533 to 453>. _hou -heng*ian, minister of en#ironmental
protection, sai! 1hurs!ay at a national meeting on 4535 en#ironmental protection that /hile e*periencing @uic( economic !e#elopment, the country is
also facing increasing energy consumption an! rising hea#y metal, soil, !angerous /aste an! chemical pollution. Accor!ing to _hou, China /ill
impose higher pollutant emission stan!ar!s for paperJma(ing, te*tiles, leather, chemical plants an! other
hea#yJpolluting in!ustries. More efforts /ill also be ma!e to control emissions of motor #ehicles, buil! se/age
processing plants at the county le#el an! continue research on !e#eloping technology to remo#e sulfur,
saltpeter, nitrogen an! other polluting materials !uring in!ustrial manufacturing. n a!!ition, the country /ill
also issue more policies, such as pro#i!ing financial support for processing pollutants an! collecting charges
o#er emissions from motor #ehicles on a trial basis, _hou sai!.
No poll&tion? china is press&ring reg&lations now
Oinh&a 0?=5?1= DChina #o/s more transparency in pollution controlR )nglish.ne/s.cn 4534J56J45 5593>946Ra
http9::ne/s.*inhuanet.com:english:china:4534J56:45:cF3K3>KO<K3.htmbE
ChinaHs en#ironmental /atch!og sai! on 1hurs!ay that it /ill /or( to promote the prompt !isclosure of air
@uality reports an! monitoring results for other types of pollution. 1he !isclosure of information on ma;or
pollution sources an! ra!iation le#els /ill also be impro#e! this year, accor!ing to a statement from the Ministry of
)n#ironmental Protection (M)P?. 1he ministry also ple!ge! to buil! an nternetJbase! en#ironmental information
platform by 453> to facilitate the countryHs en#ironmental protection !ri#e, it a!!e!. Chinese citiAens #oice!
significant concerns about air pollution in late 4533 follo/ing !ays of hea#y smog in cities inclu!ing &ei;ing. Public !eman!
mounte! for an official air @uality report that /oul! inclu!e PM4.>, an air @uality stan!ar! that allo/s for the !etection of
particulate matter /ith a !iameter of 4.> microns or less. 1he go#ernment respon!e! by promising to start using the PM4.>
stan!ar! in se#eral ma;or regions an! cities in 4534, a!!ing that it /ill e*pan! the use of the stan!ar! to all cities at or abo#e the
prefecture le#el by 453>. A number of regions an! cities, inclu!ing &ei;ing, 1ian;in an! the Pearl Ri#er !elta in Guang!ong Pro#ince, ma!e efforts earlier
this year to inclu!e PM4.> rea!ings in their air @uality measurements.
Poll&tion on the top of the agen$a
Oinh&a News 5DJDXinhua %e/s Agency 'ebruary 3>, 455=R Pollution Control 1op Priority
http9::///.china.org.cn:english:455=:'eb:3>O55P.htmE
1he Chinese go#ernment has un#eile! a plan to combat en#ironmental !egra!ation in the country o#er the ne*t
3> years, /ith pollution control high on the agen!a. M1he mo#e is aime! at protecting the longJterm interests of
China an! its people, an! lea#ing a goo! li#ing an! !e#elopment space for future generations,M the -tate Council sai!.
1he plan stipulates that by 4535, the en#ironmental @uality of hea#ily pollute! regions an! cities shoul! be impro#e! an! the tren! of en#ironmental
!egra!ation chec(e!. An! up to 4545, significant impro#ements to the countryHs general en#ironmental @uality an!
ecological status shoul! ha#e been ma!e. 1o realiAe the goal, the Chinese go#ernment has outline! se#en ma;or
tas(s, /ith fi#e focuse! on air, /ater an! soil pollution control. 1he plan comes in the /a(e of the -onghua Ri#er pollution
inci!ent in %o#ember last year, an e#ent that stunne! the nation an! soun!e! alarm bells about the countryHs /orsening en#ironment. Bfficial statistics
in!icate that most of the ma;or ri#ers in the country are pollute! an! o#er oneJthir! of ChinaHs lan! mass has been ra#age! by aci! rain. Most city
resi!ents breathe !irty air, an! more than K55 million rural resi!ents !o not ha#e access to clean /ater. 1he go#ernment ac(no/le!ge! that !espite its
efforts to (eep a chec( on pollution o#er the years, the situation is Mstill #ery se#ereM. Ma;or problems cite! inclu!e aci! rain, pollute! soil, organic
pollutants, the potential ris(s pose! by nuclear facilities, an! a !ecline of bio!i#ersity. n the ne*t 3> years, the fight against pollution
/ill become e#en more ar!uous, as the nationHs economy is e*pecte! to @ua!ruple !uring this time. M1he /orst is yet
to come, ;u!ging by the increase! fre@uency of serious pollution inci!ents,M accor!ing to _hou -heng*ian, !irector of the -tate )n#ironmental Protection
A!ministration (-)PA?. M1he issue of pollution has become a Hblasting fuseH of social instability,M he tol! Xinhua, citing the many cases of mass unrest
because of pollution. &ut this is also ChinaHs gol!en opportunity to tac(le its en#ironmental issues, he sai!. M1he central go#ernment has pai!
an unprece!ente! amount of attention to the issue, /hich is important political support for pollution control
efforts,M he sai!. Mean/hile, the plan also suggests the establishment of a longJterm mechanism for
en#ironmental protection, inclu!ing !rafting la/s on soil an! chemical pollution as /ell as compensation for
en#ironmental !amage. t also !eman!s the strict enforcement of en#ironment la/s an! se#ere punishment for those responsible for pollution,
inclu!ing go#ernmental officials. 1he plan also re@uires go#ernmental !epartments an! localities to formulate
preferential economic policies in relation to en#ironmental protection, particularly in the areas of ta*
collection, cre!it, tra!e, lan! use an! go#ernment purchases. M1he most urgent tas( for us is to chec( /ater pollution to ensure
the safety of !rin(ing /ater, an! /e must /in the battle,M _hou sai!.
C>INA 'E)ATI(NS
Cooperation Ine+ita%leE'esilient
Domestic iss&es ma#e cooperation impossi%le
3(A News 0E=6 ([Domestic ssuesQ Cutting -hort -outh -u!anese Presi!entQs China 1rip. 4534. http9::blogs.#oane/s.com:brea(ingJ
ne/s:4534:56:4>:!omesticJissuesJcuttingJshortJsouthJsu!aneseJpresi!entsJchinaJtrip:?
-outh -u!anHs Presi!ent -al#a 2iir is cutting short a trip to China because of /hat a Chinese official calle!
7!omestic issues.8 Mr. 2iir ha! planne! to remain in the country until -atur!ay. He met ,e!nes!ay /ith ,u &angguo,
chairman of the %ational PeopleHs Congress, /ho sai! it /as unfortunate the -outh -u!anese lea!er /oul! be lea#ing an! canceling a trip to -hanghai. t
/as not clear /hen Mr. 2iir /ill !epart China. He hel! tal(s 1ues!ay /ith Chinese Presi!ent Hu Jintao, an! sai! -u!anHs bombings of southern territory
amount to a !eclaration of /ar against his country. China has urge! both si!es to settle their issues through peaceful
negotiations, an! sai! ,e!nes!ay it is sen!ing an en#oy to the region to promote tal(s.
'elations resilient? %oth si$e recogni;e the importance
Oinh&a News DE=D(7China, ".-. to forge ne/ military relations8 4534. http9::ne/s.*inhuanet.com:english:china:4534J
5=:4=:cF34KKK65O3.htm?
&)J%G, June 4= (Xinhua? JJ Chinese Defense Minister +iang Guanglie met here on 1ues!ay /ith -amuel +oc(lear,
hea! of the ".-. Pacific Comman!, #o/ing to forge a ne/ type of military ties. ChinaJ"nite! -tates relations
ha#e (ept mo#ing for/ar! in the past 65 years !espite ups an! !o/ns, sai! +iang, noting that the main reason has been the
broa! common interests share! by the t/o si!es. Healthy, stable !e#elopment of ChinaJ"nite! -tates relations
is not only in the interests of the t/o countries, but also con!uci#e to the peace, stability an! prosperity of the
AsiaJPacific region an! the /orl!, he a!!e!. China an! the "nite! -tates both ha#e important !omestic political agen!as this year an! ha#e
to concentrate on economic reco#ery, !e#elopment an! reform, so it is a common nee! of both si!es to maintain the stea!y !e#elopment of bilateral ties,
accor!ing to the !efense minister. Chinese Presi!ent Hu Jintao raise! a fourJpoint proposal on forging a ne/ mo!el of
relations bet/een the t/o /orl! po/ers !uring his meeting /ith ".-. Presi!ent &arac( Bbama in Me*ico last
/ee(, /hich has pointe! out the !irection for bilateral relations, he note!. +iang calle! on the t/o arme! forces to
establish a rapport base! on e@uality, mutual benefit an! /inJ/in cooperation, /hich is correspon!ing to the
ne/ mo!el of bilateral relations. He also re#ie/e! his meeting /ith ".-. -ecretary of Defence +eon Panetta in May, noting that China is
rea!y to /or( /ith the "nite! -tates to beef up highJle#el military e*changes, !eepen cooperation in nonJ
tra!itional security, an! !e#elop bilateral military ties.
'elations resilient , SED (-trategic )conomic Dialogue? resol+ing all short term tensions
Pa&lson 5@(Henry M.J ".-. -ecretary of the 1reasury. 7A -trategic )conomic )ngagement9 -trengthening ".-.JChinese 1ies.8 Foreign Affairs.
-eptember:Bctober.?
An! rightly so. -ince ,ashington steppe! up its economic engagement /ith &ei;ing through the -)D t/o years ago,
the ".-.JChinese relationship has !eepene! an! e*pan!e!. &y encouraging topJle#el !iscussions of the t/o countriesH longJterm
strategic priorities, the -)D has foun! effecti#e /ays to manage shortJterm tensions surroun!ing tra!e !isputes. t
has alle#iate! a comple* set of concerns in the ".-. Congress in a /ay that has le! to a significant appreciation
of the renminbi an! forestalle! !angerous protectionist legislation. At the same time that ".-. consumers /ere gro/ing !eeply
concerne! about pro!uct safety, the -)D !e#elope! a comprehensi#e plan for impro#ing the @uality an! regulatory o#ersight of foo!s an! !rugs
importe! from China (the effort coul! e#en ser#e as a global mo!el for pro!uct safety?. An! as the /orl! /as becoming more eager to re!uce its
!epen!ence on oil, the -)D initiate! the 1en .ear )nergy an! )n#ironment Cooperation 'rame/or( to help e*pe!ite the "nite! -tatesH an! ChinaHs
efforts to increase their energy efficiency. 1he -)D has enable! progress on significant noneconomic issues an! more
progress on economic issues than other/ise /oul! ha#e occurre!. 1hese successes ha#e create! a foun!ation of
mutual un!erstan!ing an! trust an! a platform for further progress. History has sho/n that the ties bet/een the
"nite! -tates an! China ha#e been most stable an! mutually beneficial /hen a common interest has unite!
lea!ers in ,ashington an! &ei;ing. During the Col! ,ar, balancing the -o#iet "nionHs po/er in Asia /as that share! interest. t generate!
trust for a #ery young ".-.JChinese relationship an! facilitate! substantial bilateral cooperation. %o/, the -)D has reoriente! ".-.JChinese relations
base! on the strategic rationale of sustaining global economic gro/th. 1his unifying theme /ill moti#ate policyma(ers in both
countries an! offers the chance to re!efine the terms of the t/o countriesH relationship from simple cooperation
to ;oint management an!, perhaps e#entually, e#en genuine partnership. -uch a recasting /ill be an in#itation to China to participate in global
affairs as an e@ualJa position that &ei;ing co#ets.
'elations resilient? new militar! ties impro+e all aspects of relationship
Shengnan an$ M&ang8in DE=L(_hao an! ChengJ staff /riters. 7Chinese military ple!ges to strengthen ties /ith "-.8
http9::///.stripes.com:ne/s:pacific:chineseJmilitaryJple!gesJtoJstrengthenJtiesJ/ithJusJ3.3O36O<?
&ei;ing 0 1op Chinese military officials yester!ay ple!ge! to strengthen communication an! cooperation /ith the
"nite! -tates, but also calle! for proper resolution of the issue of "- sur#eillance flights near China. Defence
Minister +iang Guanglie an! Deputy Chief of the General -taff Ma Xiaotian of the Chinese PeopleQs +iberation Army ma!e the remar(s !uring meetings
/ith #isiting Comman!er of "- Pacific Comman! -amuel +oc(lear. 1his #isit comes one !ay before the largestJe#er Rim of the Pacific na#al e*ercises,
sche!ule! from to!ay to Aug P in Ha/aii. t in#ol#es 44 nations, inclu!ing the "-, n!ia an! Australia, but not China, /hich /as not in#ite! to
participate or obser#e. C hinaJ"- military ties ha#e great potential as o#erall bilateral relations ha#e been !e#elope!
in a stable manner, +iang sai!, a!!ing that establishing ne/, e@ual an! mutually beneficial military relations is the
ine#itable nee! of both militaries an! the common e*pectation from the international community. China /oul!
li(e to boost military e*changes /ith the "- an! !eepen cooperation in the fiel!s of nonJtra!itional security,
sai! Ma. 71his is in the best interest of both peoples, as /ell as the region an! the /hole /orl!.8 1he t/o Chinese officers e*presse!
concerns o#er the "- strategic shift to the AsiaJPacific region an! its fre@uent military sur#eillance close to ChinaQs coast. 1hey urge! the "- to resol#e
relate! issues as soon as possible. As a Pacific country, the "- hopes to impro#e cooperation /ith all AsiaJPacific countries,
inclu!ing China, sai! +oc(lear, an! he calle! for more !ialogue an! less misun!erstan!ing. Despite !ifferences o#er some issues,
China an! the "- share common interests in many fiel!s, an! the t/o militaries shoul! enhance e*changes an!
cooperation to safeguar! such interests an! buil! a safe international en#ironment, he sai!.
Cooperation Impossi%le
Cooperation impossi%le? China has too man! $omestic pro%lems
Qissinger 1= (Henry A. hair of 2issinger Associates an! a former ".-. -ecretary of -tate an! %ational -ecurity A!#iser. 71he 'uture of ".-.J
Chinese Relations9 Conflict s a Choice, %ot a %ecessity.8 March:April Foreign Affiairs?
Another reason for Chinese restraint in at least the me!ium term is the !omestic a!aptation the country faces.
1he gap in Chinese society bet/een the largely !e#elope! coastal regions an! the un!e#elope! /estern regions
has ma!e HuHs ob;ecti#e of a Mharmonious societyM both compelling an! elusi#e. Cultural changes compoun! the
challenge. 1he ne*t !eca!es /ill /itness, for the first time, the full impact of oneJchil! families on a!ult Chinese
society. 1his is boun! to mo!ify cultural patterns in a society in /hich large families ha#e tra!itionally ta(en
care of the age! an! the han!icappe!. ,hen four gran!parents compete for the attention of one chil! an! in#est him /ith the aspirations
heretofore sprea! across many offspring, a ne/ pattern of insistent achie#ement an! #ast, perhaps unfulfillable,
e*pectations may arise. All these !e#elopments /ill further complicate the challenges of ChinaHs go#ernmental
transition starting in 4534, in /hich the presi!encyR the #iceJpresi!encyR the consi!erable ma;ority of the positions in ChinaHs Politburo, -tate
Council, an! Central Military CommissionR an! thousan!s of other (ey national an! pro#incial posts /ill be staffe! /ith ne/ appointees. 1he ne/
lea!ership group /ill consist, for the most part, of members of the first Chinese generation in a century an! a half to
ha#e li#e! all their li#es in a country at peace. ts primary challenge /ill be fin!ing a /ay to !eal /ith a society
re#olutioniAe! by changing economic con!itions, unprece!ente! an! rapi!ly e*pan!ing technologies of communication, a tenuous
global economy, an! the migration of hun!re!s of millions of people from ChinaHs countrysi!e to its cities. 1he mo!el of go#ernment that emerges /ill
li(ely be a synthesis of mo!ern i!eas an! tra!itional Chinese political an! cultural concepts, an! the @uest for that synthesis /ill pro#i!e the ongoing
!rama of ChinaHs e#olution.
>igh Now
'elations high now? cooperation on all ma8or iss&es
Qissinger 1= (Henry A. hair of 2issinger Associates an! a former ".-. -ecretary of -tate an! %ational -ecurity A!#iser. 71he 'uture of ".-.J
Chinese Relations9 Conflict s a Choice, %ot a %ecessity.8 March:April Foreign Affiairs?
Bn January 3<, 4533, ".-. Presi!ent &arac( Bbama an! Chinese Presi!ent Hu Jintao issue! a ;oint statement at the en! of HuHs #isit to ,ashington. t
proclaime! their share! commitment to a Mpositi#e, cooperati#e, an! comprehensi#e ".-.JChina relationship.M
)ach party reassure! the other regar!ing his principal concern, announcing, M1he "nite! -tates reiterate! that it /elcomes a strong,
prosperous, an! successful China that plays a greater role in /orl! affairs. China /elcomes the "nite! -tates as
an AsiaJPacific nation that contributes to peace, stability an! prosperity in the region .M -ince then, the t/o go#ernments
ha#e set about implementing the state! ob;ecti#es. 1op American an! Chinese o:cials ha#e e*change! #isits an!
institutionaliAe! their e*changes on ma;or strategic an! economic issues. MilitaryJtoJmilitary contacts ha#e
been restarte!, opening an important channel of communication . An! at the uno:cial le#el, soJcalle! trac(Jt/o groups ha#e
e*plore! possible e#olutions of the ".-.JChinese relationship.
'elations high? recent agreements pro+e
Mwert;man 6EP (&ernar!JConsulting )!itor for Council on 'oreign Relations. 7Maturing ".-.JChina Relations.8 4534.
http9::///.cfr.org:china:maturingJusJchinaJrelations:p4O3O6?
1/o !e#elopments signal a positi#e shift in ".-.JChina relationsJJprogress in last /ee(Hs highJle#el tal(s in &ei;ing, an! the t/o si!esH efforts to cobble an
agreement that /oul! allo/ !issi!ent Chen Guangcheng to lea#e China for the "nite! -tates, says C'RHs )liAabeth C. )conomy. M&oth si!es are
clearly committe! to maintaining stability in the relationship an! /ere #ery un/illing to allo/ this one stri(ing
an! important inci!ent to cause the relationship to spiral !o/n/ar!,M says )conomy. 1he t/o si!es announce!
mo!est economic accor!s, inclu!ing an agreement that foreign ban(s /oul! be allo/e! a higher sta(e in
Chinese ban(s, an! an agreement to cut import tariffs on some consumer goo!s. Mn the conte*t of the Chen Guangcheng
situation,M says )conomy, Mthe fact that they /ere able to announce anything positi#e is a real compliment to both si!es.M Do you thin( China /ill let this
Chen !eal go throughU 1his !eal is a significant accomplishment on the part of China an! the "nite! -tates. certainly hope &ei;ing /ill follo/ through
on it. t /oul!nHt seem to be in ChinaHs interest to bloc( the !eal at this pointR the international outcry /oul! be significant. 'ran(ly, getting Chen out of
China li(ely has its benefits for &ei;ing9 t gets him off the ra!ar screen in ChinaJJparticularly on the nternet, /here his case /as follo/e! /ith some
interestJJan! minimiAes the li(elihoo! that he coul! cause trouble /hile he /as stu!ying la/ someplace in China, /hich /as promise! in the first !eal.
Bf course, there is al/ays the possibility that &ei;ing /ill renege on the !eal base! on something Chen says or !oesJJor something someone in the "nite!
-tates says or !oesJJbut the greater ris( is that &ei;ing /onHt let him bac( into the country /hen an! if he /ants to return. 1he )nglishJlanguage Chinese
press has been attac(ing the "nite! -tates for interference, but guess this is normal. Mn some respects, this strategic an! economic
!ialogue !emonstrate! as goo! an! as positi#e a state in the relationship as /eH#e seen in a /hile.M
'elations Don-t Sol+e
'elations sol+e nothing? $on-t share common interests
Feigen%a&m 11 ()#anJ /riter for Council on foreign relations. 7Does "-JChina strategic cooperation ha#e to be so har!U8 33:>.
http9::///.eastasiaforum.org:4533:35:5>:!oesJusJchinaJstrategicJcooperationJha#eJtoJbeJsoJhar!:?
'or their part, Chinese officials often #ie/ "- policies in these countries as nac#e at best, !estabilising at /orst. Many in
&ei;ing hol! the #ie/ that "- an! -outh 2orean [failuresQ ha#e cornere! %orth 2orea an! thus urge !eepene!
policies of engagement. n Central Asia, mean/hile, as Deputy Assistant -ecretary of -tate for the region in 455= an! 455P, hear! Chinese
officials argue a! infinitum that "- actions to promote political reform coul!, ultimately, !estabilise these countries. ,hatQs
going onU Does cooperation really ha#e to be so har!U 'or that matter, is coor!ination so har! because the "- an! China lac( common interestsU thin(
not. n fact, asserting so is a tooJeasy cop out because, in most cases, it /oul! be a/fully har! to !emonstrate empirically that China actually [/antsQ an
unstable Pa(istan or /oul! ;ust [lo#eQ a %orth 2orea /ith nuclear /eapons. n the countries at the heart of this C'R stu!y, /hy /oul!nQt China share
AmericaQs interest in stability, security, !e#elopment an! prosperityU %o, suspect the problem usually isnQt a lac( of common interests. tQs that
share! interests are #ery general in nature. 1urning (abstract? common interests into (concrete?
complementary policies re@uires that &ei;ing an! ,ashington o#ercome t/o #ery high hur!les9 'irst, &ei;ing
almost ne#er seems to share American threat assessments anymore. Countries li(e ran an! %orth 2orea !onQt
threaten China !irectly, so &ei;ing can probably affor! to be more rela*e! an! many Chinese analysts argue that ,ashington
o#erstates the scope an! urgency of such threats. -econ!, e#en /hen &ei;ing shares AmericaQs sense of threat, counter#ailing
interests still obstruct cooperation. n Afghanistan, for e*ample, China certainly shares AmericaQs core interest9 a stable Afghan state that
!oes not harbour, nurture or e*port terrorism. &ut Chinese !ecisionJma(ers ha#e become uncomfortable /hen tol! that the
path to #ictory may re@uire a longJterm %A1B presence on ChinaQs /estern bor!er, "- bases an! access
agreements in Central Asia, an! enhance! "- an! %A1B strategic coor!ination /ith neighbours that ha#e ha!
!ifficult relations /ith China.
C>INA?'*SSIA 4A'
Cooperation >igh
No '&ssia?Sino war???relations high
China Dail! 1= 6:4O, 7ChinaJRussia relations reach ne/ heights,8 http9::///.china!aily.com.cn:china:4534J56:4O:contentF3>3=>=63.htm, AJ
Cooperation bet/een China an! Russia has huge potential, CiceJPremier +i 2e@iang sai! in Mosco/ on 'ri!ay. M1he ChinaJ
Russia allJaroun! strategic partnership is &nprece$ente$ at the moment , an! belie#e the cooperation
bet/een the t/o countries coul! reach a ne/ high, as there is a /i!e range of areas that /e coul! ;ointly
!e#elop,M sai! +i !uring his meeting /ith Russian Prime Minister Cla!imir Putin. MBf course, the /ay ahea! is al/ays not smooth, but /e are
goo! neighbors, goo! frien!s an! goo! partners.M Bn 1hurs!ay, +i starte! his 35J!ay #isit to Russia, Hungary, &elgium an! the
hea!@uarters of the )uropean "nion to enhance tra!e an! in#estment relations. Russia is the first stop, an! +i is e*pecte! to stay in
the nation for four !ays as the t/o countries /ill !iscuss the promotion of tra!e an! in#estment an! /itness
the signing of largeJscale !eals. China is RussiaHs largest tra!e partner, an! the secon! largest e*port mar(et for
Russia. Despite )uropean !ebt /oes, China?'&ssia tra$e s&rge$ %! 0=.L percent from a year earlier to
TP<.4> billion in 4533, outperforming the gro/th of 44.> percent for ChinaHs foreign tra!e !uring the same
perio!, accor!ing to the General A!ministration of Customs. +i sai! in an article publishe! in a Russian ne/spaper on 1hurs!ay that China an!
Russia coul! reap benefits from each otherHs gro/th an! prosperity, as the t/o countries share common
economic targets an! their in!ustries are highly complementary. M1here is no !oubt that the le#el of the t/o
nationsH relationship is #ery high, reaching a historical high, as a result of the ;oint efforts,M sai! Putin. M'&ssia
an$ China cooperate closel! on the glo%al stage an$ the two nations are stri+ing to $e+elop
economic an$ tra$e relations,M Putin sai!. Bn 'ri!ay, +i also met Russian Presi!ent Dmitry Me!#e!e# an! is sche!ule! to
atten! a ChinaJRussia in#estment an! tra!e forum on -atur!ay. 1he t/o si!es are e*pecte! to /itness tra!e
an! in#estment !eals among go#ernments an! corporations in the coming !ays in agriculture, energy,
transportation, telecommunication an! highJtech. M1he priority for us is to impro#e the li#ing stan!ar!s of the
people, so /e shoul! !e#elop pragmatic cooperation in economic an! tra!e issues. hope /e coul! push
for/ar! cooperation in all aspects,M sai! Putin. n May, Putin /ill ta(e on ne/ !uties as Russian presi!ent, an! he /ill pay an official #isit to
China this June, the first such as presi!ent. MChina an! Russia ha#e political mutual trust, supplementary economies, goo!
cultural e*changes, interacti#e military ties an! /ell coor!inate! !iplomacy, /hich is not a status that can be
easily attaine!,M sai! .u -ui, a professor of Russian stu!ies /ith the &ei;ingJbase! China Center for Contemporary ,orl! -tu!ies. -uch a
relationship coul! impro#e as the t/o countries nee! each other to !e#elop their !omestic economies, sai! .u.
Putin has #o/e! to stimulate the Russian economy an! turn it into the /orl!Hs fifth largest economy from its
current 33th position by the en! of the !eca!e. M1he -inoJRussian comprehensi#e strategic partnership is base!
on a strong fo&n$ation an$ historic acc&m&lation , /hich is also the basis for the t/o countries to realiAe
further cooperation an! safeguar! their strategic interests in the future,M sai! Xing Guangcheng, a researcher on Russian
stu!ies /ith the Chinese Aca!emy of -ocial -ciences. Ho/e#er, accor!ing to 2erry &ro/n, hea! of the Asia Program at +on!onJbase! Chatham House,
Mthere is plenty of mutual suspicion, though. Russia a!mires ChinaHs strong gro/th, but /ishes to protect its global role an! maintain its !iplomatic
status.M Putin sai! the t/o nations ha#e learne! to treat each other as goo! frien!s. MDue to the large?scale cooperation bet/een
the t/o si!es, there are many issues that nee! our concerns, but there are not substantial problems bet/een
China an! Russia,M sai! Putin. +i agree! by saying that Mon the /ay to a!!ressing the problems, /e /ill try to
continuously press ahea! an! tap the potential for business cooperation /ith ;oint efforts to ma(e the
prospects for both more prosperous.M
Cooperation now
/olton P 33:4K, $2.R. &olton is a 'ello/ of the Aca!emy of -ocial W Political Research, Athens, 7Russia an! China An Approaching ConflictU8
http9::///.scrib!.com:!oc:44<66O<P:RussiaJan!JChinaJanJApproachingJConflict, AJ
Ho/e#er, in recent years Russia an! China ha#e $e+elope$ tra$e an$ $iplomatic relations . Most significantly,
Russia has been ChinaQs main supplier of arms (follo/e! by srael?. Chinese an! Russian lea!ers ha#e sought
accor!ing the face of /hat they consi!er "- global hegemony follo/ing the collapse of the -o#iet bloc.
C>INA?TAI4AN 4A'
No 4ar
No China?Taiwan war
Ste#etee @ O:3<, $M2) -1)2)1))9 %A1B%A+ A''AR- )D1BR, 7China unli(ely to go to /ar o#er 1ai/an, says !efence e*pert,8
http9::///.theaustralian.com.au:ne/s:chinaJ/ontJfightJo#erJtai/anJe*pert:storyJe=frg=t=J333333P4KK4P>, AJ
C>INA is &nli#el! to %e a militar! threat an$ the chances of a conflict o+er Taiwan are
$iminishing accor$ing to a *S $efence e2pert. M1hey see this as an ine#itable an! logical outgro/th of their economic
emergence,M Professor Pollac( sai!. M'or all the shiny ne/ systems they are ac@uiring, China has not gone to /ar for K5 years. !onHt
see them as a (in! of bu!!ing o#erlor! of )ast Asia. !onHt thin( that is the /ay they conceptualise these
things.M China has reporte! a#erage real increases in military spen!ing of <.=per cent in the 3> years to 455>R
outsi!e estimates are much higher. 1he "- Defence Department has been among those e*pressing concern about a military buil!Jup that coul! put
regional balances at ris(. Professor Pollac(, /ho has been #isiting China for K5 years, sai! he coul! not preclu!e China becoming a military
threat, but a!!e!9 M ;ust !onHt see it as terribly li(ely.M Professor Pollac( is in Australia as a guest of the Centre for nternational -ecurity
-tu!ies an! the "- -tu!ies Centre, both at -y!ney "ni#ersity. He recently #isite! 1ai/an, /hose Go#ernment, electe! this year, comprise!
realists /ho (ne/ they ha! to try to fin! a means of !ealing /ith China. M1hey ha#e to fin! a /ay to gi#e China
clear incenti#es to collaborate /ith them, hopefully in a transition to some longerJterm accommo!ation, the
terms of /hich they !onHt (no/ yet,M Professor Pollac( sai!. MAs long as you ha#e a Go#ernment in 1aipei that
is going to /or( har! to not pro#o(e the Chinese, /oul! see the pro%a%ilit! (of China &sing militar!
force against Taiwan" $iminishing, not increasing, e#en as China becomes much more capable militarily.M He
sai! the "- /as un!ergoing a reassessment of longJterm strategy follo/ing the Col! ,ar, /hich ha! been !eferre! by the
-eptember 33, 4553, terror attac(s. MA legitimate issue is /hether American foreign policy is o#erJmilitaristic,M he sai!. M,e loo( at the problems /e face
in the /orl! an! there has been a ten!ency to thin( /ay too @uic(ly about fin!ing a military solution for things for /hich there may not be a military
solution.M 1his /as true of ra@ an! probably Afghanistan, he sai!. M("- Defence -ecretary? Robert Gates has pointe! out that if you loo( at the number
of uniforme! personnel on a single %imitA aircraft carrier J about =555 J that is more than the foreign ser#ice officers in the entire -tate Department.M
No war , economies too intertwine$
/ha#al 1= (MaitreyaJ 'reelance ,riter at A&-A- -olutions P#t. +t!. 7'i#e reasons /hy China /ill not in#a!e 1ai/an, an! an analysis of CrossJ
strait Relation.8 http9::in!iaschinablog.blogspot.com:4533:5O:analysingJcrossJstraitJrelationsJan!J>.html?
China has al/ays place! economics at the forefront of most other matters. Despite the oftenJtumultuous state of -inoJn!ian
relations (an! an unresol#e! bor!er !ispute?, tra!e has touche! T=K billion. China is n!iaQs secon! largest tra!ing partner. n the -en(a(u islan!
!ispute /ith Japan, Deng Xiaoping, as soon as he came into po/er in 3<PO, propose! that China an! Japan ;ointly e*plore the oil an! gas !eposits near
the !ispute! islan!s /ithout touching on the issue of so#ereignty. China has also sought ;oint e*ploration in the resourceJrich -pratlys, a solution /hich
is the right step for/ar! an! is in fact more urgent than so#ereignty, /hich the Philippines an! Cietnam an! ha#e so far been reluctant to !o. China
!oesnQt min! /aiting an! bi!ing its time until so#ereignty issues get resol#e!. As Deng Xiaoping famously
remar(e! regar!ing the -en(a(u !ispute, 7t !oes not matter if this @uestion is shel#e! for some time, say, 35
years. Bur generation is not /ise enough to fin! common language on this @uestion. Bur ne*t generation /ill certainly be /iser. 1hey /ill certainly
fin! a solution acceptable to all8. "nli(e his pre!ecessor Jiang _emin, Hu Jintao has use! a softer approach to/ar!s 1ai/an,
promoting stronger economic an! cultural ties, highJle#el official #isits an! !irect flights in or!er to re!uce
tensions. 1his pragmatic approach is on !isplay e#en in the 1ai/an !ispute. China is 1ai/anQs largest tra!ing partner, an! 1ai/an
is ChinaQs se#enth largest. 1/oJthir!s of all 1ai/anese companies ha#e ma!e in#estments in China in recent years.
n 4535, China (inclu!ing Hong 2ong? accounte! for o#er 4<.5L of 1ai/anQs total tra!e an! 63.OL of 1ai/anQs e*ports. 1he )C'A /as hea#ily tilte! in
1ai/anQs fa#or. t cut tariffs on >K< 1ai/anese e*ports to China an! 4=P Chinese pro!ucts entering 1ai/an. "n!er the agreement, appro*imately 3=.3 L
of e*ports to China an! 35.> L of imports to China /ill be tariff free by 453K. 1ai/anese firms ha#e in#este! T455 billion in the mainlan!, an! tra!e
bet/een the t/o si!es has e*cee!e! T3>5 billion. 1ai/anese tra!e /ith China. -ource9 Reuters &oth China an! 1ai/an ha#e a lot to lose
by fighting /ith each other. Another factor to consi!er is the incalculable loss that an in#asion /ill ha#e on the
Chinese economy, not to mention scaring a/ay potential in#estors.
No war , Taiwan $oes not want
/ha#al 1= (MaitreyaJ 'reelance ,riter at A&-A- -olutions P#t. +t!. 7'i#e reasons /hy China /ill not in#a!e 1ai/an, an! an analysis of CrossJ
strait Relation.8 http9::in!iaschinablog.blogspot.com:4533:5O:analysingJcrossJstraitJrelationsJan!J>.html?
China is, @uite rightly, obsesse! /ith 7stability8, Presi!ent HuQs /atch/or!. Analysts agree that this is one of the main
reasons /hy it is not being 7tough8 on %orth 2orea 0 that it /ants a stable neighbor /ith no refugee spillo#er. ,ith hun!re!s of
protests happening in China e#ery year, it most certainly /oul!nQt /ant yet another hea!ache on its han!s an! alienate the islan!Qs inhabitants (e#en
more than they are at the moment?. 1here is #ery less support for reunification on the islan!, an! opinion polls ma(e
clear that only a tiny minority of 1ai/anese i!entify themsel#es as 7Chinese8. 1he AntiJ-ecession also e*plicitly states in
Article <9 n the e#ent of employing an! e*ecuting nonJpeaceful means an! other necessary measures as pro#i!e! for in this +a/, the state shall e*ert its
utmost to protect the li#es, property an! other legitimate rights an! interests of 1ai/an ci#ilians an! foreign nationals in 1ai/an, an! to minimiAe losses.
At the same time, the state shall protect the rights an! interests of the 1ai/an compatriots in other parts of
China in accor!ance /ith la/. A Chinese in#asion might ine#itably lea! to riots an! international
con!emnation. China /oul! thus ris( flushing !o/n the toilet many yearsQ har! /or( of patient !iplomacy (in
con#incing other countries of its 7peaceful rise8?. 1his /oul! in turn cause them to inch e#en closer to America, /ere they
/oul! be /elcome! /ith open arms.
No war , China fears *S inter+ention
/ha#al 1= (MaitreyaJ 'reelance ,riter at A&-A- -olutions P#t. +t!. 7'i#e reasons /hy China /ill not in#a!e 1ai/an, an! an analysis of CrossJ
strait Relation.8 http9::in!iaschinablog.blogspot.com:4533:5O:analysingJcrossJstraitJrelationsJan!J>.html?
1he "nite! -tates of America, the responsible superpo/er, has been engage! in more military conflicts aroun! this
/orl! than any other. -ince the -econ! ,orl! ,ar, the "- has9 Attempte! to o#erthro/ more than >5 go#ernments, most of them
!emocraticallyJelecte!. Attempte! to suppress a populist or national mo#ement in 45 countries. Grossly interfere! in !emocratic elections in at least K5
countries. Droppe! bombs on the people of more than K5 countries. Attempte! to assassinate more than >5 foreign lea!ers. Hence, the plain fact that
nee!s to be realiAe! is that the "nite! -tates is more prone to #iolent outbursts than any other country. 1he P+A !octrinal te*tboo(,
_hanyi*ue, e*plicitly states that China is not in the same league as 7a!#ance! countries8 (1he entire !ocument ne#er
mentions the "nite! -tates by name?, argues 1homas J. Christensen in ChinaQs Re#olution in Doctrinal Affairs9 Recent 1ren!s in the Bperational Art of
the Chinese PeopleQs +iberation Army (C%A, 455>?. He further states, Moreo#er, unli(e in the hea!y early !ays of the Great +eap 'or/ar!, P+A
strategists !o not en#ision China closing that o#erall gap anytime soon. 1here is no state! e*pectation of shortJcuts or
leapfrogging to great po/er military status. n other /or!s, China /ill ha#e to accept that its relati#e technological
bac(/ar!ness an! /ea(ness in po/er pro;ection /ill persist for a long time. An! then goes on to @uote the te*t of _hanyi*ue
e*plicitly9 7Bur military e@uipment has gone through ma;or upgra!ing (? in comparison /ith the past, but in comparison to a!#ance! countries,
/hether it be no/ or e#en a relati#ely long perio! from no/, there /ill still be a relati#ely large gap ( ?VVVVV.1he most prominent
ob;ecti#e reality that the P+A /ill face in fighting future campaigns is that in Dthe area ofE military e@uipment, the enemy /ill be superior an!
/e /ill be inferior.8 As is clear, Chinese policyJma(ers are realists, an! thus can be relie! upon to hea#ily /eigh
the conse@uences of a possible "- inter#ention.
No war , Taiwan will ne+er $eclare in$epen$ence
/ha#al 1= (MaitreyaJ 'reelance ,riter at A&-A- -olutions P#t. +t!. 7'i#e reasons /hy China /ill not in#a!e 1ai/an, an! an analysis of CrossJ
strait Relation.8 http9::in!iaschinablog.blogspot.com:4533:5O:analysingJcrossJstraitJrelationsJan!J>.html?
3. 1ai/an is not going to !eclare in!epen!ence9 1he most important reason /hy China has not yet consi!ere!
an in#asion. Ma has e*plicitly !eclare! that he is not see(ing in!epen!ence, an! the #oters seem to be si!ing
/ith him an! are happy /ith the status @uo. An! so is China. Chinese lea!ers ha#e a penchant for putting issues on the bac(burner.
1hey a!apt to changing situations an! are happy to !o /hat they can (business? an! lea#e for future generations
/hat they cannot (reunification?. -o /hat ne*tU Chinese lea!ers /ill be happy to a!mit 0 they !onQt (no/. As long as both si!es are
happy /ith the status @uo, there seems to be no reason to fret. As long as 1ai/an !oes not !eclare
in!epen!ence, there seems to be no reason to /orry about a military conflict. An! since a ma;ority of the
1ai/anese people are happy to be /ere they are, roc(ing the boat is the last thing lea!ers on both si!es of the
strait /oul! /ant to !o. &oth economies are gro/ing, an! people are li#ing happily on both si!es. )#ery generation of
lea!ers thus han!s o#er this problem to the ne*t one, /ith the hope that they might one !ay either sol#e it, or preser#e the status @uo an! han! the
hea!ache o#er to their successors. Hence, !iscussion of a Chinese in#asion ser#es little purpose other than to be use! by #arious 7foreignJpolicy analysts8
to ;ustify their grants an! pass their time. 1here ought to be no !oubt that a fullJblo/n in#asion /oul! be a nightmare for
China, an! it simply /oul!nQt !o it. Br, as Jim Hac(er /oul! say, 7%ot ;ust that it shoul!nQt, but it coul!nQt, an! if it coul!, it /oul!nQt, /oul! itU8
China is empiricall! peacef&l
/ha#al 1= (MaitreyaJ 'reelance ,riter at A&-A- -olutions P#t. +t!. 7'i#e reasons /hy China /ill not in#a!e 1ai/an, an! an analysis of CrossJ
strait Relation.8 http9::in!iaschinablog.blogspot.com:4533:5O:analysingJcrossJstraitJrelationsJan!J>.html?
China is one of the fe/ rising po/ers in the /hole of human history to announce peaceful intentions an! no
!esire to rule or establish hegemony o#er the /orl!. n /hat might come as a shoc( to most people /ho consi!er me!ia reports as a
te*tboo( for Chinese foreign policy, China has, on the /hole, been a peaceful nation an! has not engage! in military
action unless pro#o(e!. An! the military action that it has been in#ol#e! in in its mo!ern history has been
e*tremely limite! in its !uration an! ob;ecti#es. &arring a misa!#enture /ith Cietnam in 3<P< (/hich /as also @uite limite!?, China
has only use! /ar as a last resort, /hen it /as left /ith no other alternati#e. Resolutions of boun!ary !isputes
can be generally consi!ere! as a fun!amental in!ication /hether a country is pursuing e*pansionist or peaceful
policies (/hich is one reason /hy a thorough analysis of ChinaQs bor!er !isputes has been neglecte! by almost all /estern me!ia outlets an! analysts?.
China has ha! the highest number of bor!er !isputes of any country in the /orl! an! /ith no intention of
li#ing in an unfrien!ly atmosphere o#er a peace of lan!, has successfully han!le! an! offere! substantial
compromises (this is the other reason? in most of them. China bor!ers 36 countries by lan!R an! as a result of territorial !ismemberment an!
une@ual treaties, the PRC go#ernment, /hen it came into po/er, foun! itself in#ol#e! in territorial !isputes /ith all of them. 1he /ay in /hich
China resol#e! those !isputes stan!s as testimony to its !esire of peace at any cost an! ser#es as an e*ample to other
countries. China has, in the interests of peace an! stability on its bor!ers, a!opte! a negotiation tactic fa#orable to
ri#al claimants that other countries /oul! !o /ell to emulate. Many of these claimants /ere countries much /ea(er than China.
China /as un!er no obligation to offer such substantial compromises. 1he portion of lan! that China recei#e! in bor!er settlements /ith #arious
neighbouring countries is as follo/s. Afghanistan J 5L 1a;i(istan 0 6L %epal 0 =L &urma 0 3OL 2aAa(hstan 0 44L Mongolia 0 4<L 2yrgyAstan 0 K4L
%orth 2orea 0 65L +aos 0 >5L Cietnam 0 >5L Russia 0 >5L Pa(istan 0 >6L -ome of this lan! /as strategically important (such as the ,a(han
corri!or that /as !ispute! /ith Afghanistan? an! e*tremely rich in resources (such as the Pamir mountain range in case of 1a;i(istan?. China has also
not reiterate! its claims on a ma;ority of the territory /hich /as seiAe! from it by the une@ual treaties (e#en if it meant being cut off from the strategic
-ea of Japan?. n the map belo/, the gray area /as part of China /hen the Sing !ynasty /as at its height, an! then /as snatche! a/ay from it !ue to
une@ual treaties. China has pursue! claims on no more than PL of these territories. China has generally been (no/n to attac( /hen it
has been ta(en a!#antage of or construe! as /ea(, or /hen the enemy /as at its #ery !oorstep, such as !uring the 2orean /ar. 1he
-inoJn!ian /ar of 3<=4 stan!s as a te*tboo( e*ample of this strategy. %ehru, the then n!ian PM, re;ecting all Chinese offers for negotiations,
constitute! a 7'or/ar! Policy8 of pushing for/ar! to enemy lines an! ma!e belligerent statements about China (7 ha#e or!ere! the army to thro/ the
Chinese out8?, implicitly announcing n!ian intentions to attac(. -ome of the n!ian outposts establishe! un!er this policy /ent e#en further then
Chinese ones. China, correctly interpreting these actions as hostile an! #ie/ing n!ia through the prism of &ritish imperialist intentions on 1ibet (as
n!ia ha! ma!e itself the &ritish successor in all matters regar!ing 1ibet an! China?, ma!e multiple !iplomatic protests against the 'or/ar! Policy, but
%ehru ignore! them an! ne#er thought that China /oul! ha#e the guts to attac(. After China finally !i! attac( an! occupie! the !ispute! areas, it
!eclare! a unilateral ceasefire an! /ith!ra/ to preJ/ar status @uo bor!ers /ithout occupying an inch of territory. Hence, Chinese intentions /ere ;ust to
;ust n!ia a lesson. t ha! no interest in occupying any territory.
C>INA?*S 4A'
Cooperation >igh
No war? relations high an$ too man! economic ties
'o%erge an$ )ee 5P (Michal an! .ou(yungJ /riters for the Council on 'oreign Relations. 7ChinaJ1ai/an Relations.8 O:33.
http9::///.cfr.org:china:chinaJtai/anJrelations:p<44K?
Despite intermittent !iplomatic friction, the crossJstrait economic relationship has blossome!. China entere! the
,orl! 1ra!e BrganiAation (,1B? in 4553 an!, /ithin a month, 1ai/an entere! as MChinese 1aipei.M &ilateral tra!e bet/een China an!
1ai/an in 455P reache! T354 billion, up from TO billion in 3<<3 (PD'? . China is 1ai/anHs largest tra!ing partnerR in 455P,
K5 percent of 1ai/anHs e*ports /ere sol! to China. +i(e/ise, 1ai/an ran(s in the top ten of ChinaHs tra!ing partners. 1ai/anese
businesses ha#e in#este! an estimate! T3>5 billion in the mainlan! since 3<OO. n 455<, 1ai/an opene! up one hun!re! of its in!ustries to mainlan!
in#estments. China an! 1ai/an ha#e also agree! to allo/ ban(s, insurers, an! other financial ser#ice pro#i!ers to in#est an! /or( in both mar(ets.
%egotiations bet/een the t/o for an )conomic Cooperation 'rame/or( Agreement that /ill ease tra!e
restrictions e#en further are sche!ule! for late 455<. 1he year 455< also mar(e! the increase of !irect flights bet/een China an! 1ai/an to 4P5 per
/ee( from 35O. Moreo#er, 1ai/an increase! its !aily @uota of #isitors from China to three thousan!, a tenJfol!
increase. -ignificance of the Rapprochement n another mo#e signaling the more placi! relations bet/een China an! 1ai/an, in May 455< the
Chinese go#ernment !i! not ob;ect to 1ai/anHs participation as an obser#er at the ,orl! Health Assembly, the
go#erning bo!y of the ,orl! Health BrganiAation, albeit un!er the name MChinese 1aipei.M 1his mar(e! the first time 1ai/an /as grante! obser#er
status at a "nite! %ations bo!y since it lost its seat to China in 3<P3. Continuing the conciliatory tren!, Presi!ent Ma has calle! for
increase! cultural an! e!ucational e*changes /ith China. He also continues to #o/ that 1ai/an /ill not mo#e
to/ar! political unification /ith China, /hile at the same time insisting that 1ai/an /ill not !eclare in!epen!ence. MaHs course is in line
/ith public sentimentR polls suggest P> to O5 percent of people in 1ai/an /ant their go#ernment to preser#e the status @uo ('oreign Policy?. Bn the
mainlan!, Chinese Presi!ent Hu Jintao has bac(e! a/ay from the aggressi#e language of his pre!ecessors. ,hile
unification remains the ultimate goal, Presi!ent Hu has tone! !o/n !eman!s for 1ai/anHs return an! seems satisfie! to
continue on the current path of increase! economic an! cultural integration, say e*perts. 1ai/an e*pert Raymon!
&urghar!t says Mboth si!es ha#e essentially agree! to !eal /ith the easy issues first such as tra!e an! transportation, an! lea#e the har! stuff such as
1ai/anHs international representation for later.M &urghar!t pre!icts the current rapprochement /ill continue but /ill not procee! into the poltical realm
to/ar! unification /ith China or in!epen!ence for 1ai/an.
No 4ar
4ar is &nli#el!
Mlo%al Times 11 33:3>, 7-inoJ"- /ar unli(ely but not impossible,8 http9::///.globaltimes.cn:%),-:tabi!:<<:D:=O6534:-inoJ"-J/arJ
unli(elyJbutJnotJimpossible.asp*, AJ
A recent report release! by the RA%D Corporation, a "- thin( tan( specialiAing in military stu!ies, e*amine! the
prospect of China an! the "- going to /ar, but conclu!e! it improbable. ,hat is the ultimate re! line for a ma;or military
conflict bet/een the t/o po/ersU ,ill the "- bac( other Asian countries in pro#o(ing ChinaU Global 1imes (G1? reporter ,ang ,en/en tal(e! to Ma;or
General +uo .uan (+uo?, !eputy secretaryJgeneral of the P+A Aca!emy of Military -ciences, an! Robert M. 'arley ('arley?, a professor at the Patterson
-chool of Diplomacy an! nternational Commerce in the "ni#ersity of 2entuc(y, on these issues. +uo9 At the current stage, %oth
co&ntries $on7t ha+e the $esire to start a war nor $o the! ha+e the capa%ilit!. Ho/e#er, if ChinaHs core
interests such as its so#ereignty, national security an! unity are intru!e! on, a military conflict /ill be una#oi!able. 'arley9 thin( that /ar is
unli(ely, but not impossible. &oth countries ha#e a lot to lose, both from the conflict itself an! the o#erall
fallout. f /ar !oes occur, suspect that the trigger /ill be a miscalculation o#er 1ai/an, or possibly %orth 2orea. -ome in the "- might feel compelle!
to !efen! 1ai/an follo/ing a !eclaration of in!epen!enceR a %orth 2orean collapse /ill lea! to competition o#er the ne/ structure of politics on the
2orean Peninsula. +uo9 1he "- is a pragmatic country. t /ill try to trigger a /ar in other countries or regions to
!eplete their po/ers /hile maintaining its o/n safety. The *S will not reall! get in+ol+e$ into a war if
the harm is greater than the %enefits . )#en if it !oes get in#ol#e!, it /onHt sacrifice itself for its allies .
'arley9 !oubt that the "- /ill become engage! in the -outh China -ea in any but a supporting role. Ho/e#er, the
1ai/an situation is ripe for miscalculation by all the parties in#ol#e!. Hm a bit less /orrie! about either n!ia or %orth 2orea.
,hile the "- an! n!ia ha#e been buil!ing a goo! relationship, the focus of n!ian foreign policy remains on
Pa(istan, an! pre#ious n!oJPa(istani /ars ha+en7t $ragge$ either China or the *S in . n %orth 2orea,
Hm optimistic that $iplomats will %e a%le to wor# o&t the ma8or iss&es witho&t war .
No war , cooperation sol+es
(7'o&r#e DE10 4534, $Ronal! BHRour(e9 -pecialist in %a#al Affairs, 7China %a#al Mo!erniAation9 mplications for ".-. %a#y CapabilitiesI
&ac(groun! an! ssues for Congress,8 Congressional Research -er#ice, http9::///.fas.org:sgp:crs:ro/:R+KK3>K.p!f, AJ
1he maintenance of peace, stability, the free flo/ of commerce, an! of ".-. influence in this !ynamic region
/ill !epen! in part on an un!erlying balance of military capability an! presence. B#er the long term, ChinaQs
emergence as a regional po/er /ill ha#e the potential to affect the ".-. economy an! our security in a #ariety of
/ays. Bur t/o countries ha#e a strong sta#e in peace an$ sta%ilit! in East Asia an$ an interest in
%&il$ing a cooperati+e %ilateral relationship. Ho/e#er, the gro/th of ChinaQs military po/er must be
accompanie! by greater clarity of its strategic intentions in or!er to a#oi! causing friction in the region. 1he
"nite! -tates /ill continue to ma(e the necessary in#estments to ensure that /e maintain regional access an! the
ability to operate freely in (eeping /ith our treaty obligations an! /ith international la/. ,or(ing closely /ith
our net/or( of allies an! partners, /e /ill continue to promote a r&les?%ase$ international or$er that
ens&res &n$erl!ing sta%ilit! an$ enco&rages the peacef&l rise of new powers , economic !ynamism,
an! constructi#e !efense cooperation....
More e+i$ence
>arper 11 July 4533, $+ieutenant Comman!er Matthe/ Harper9 "- %a#y, 7Chinese Missiles an! the ,almart 'actor,8
http9::///.usni.org:magaAines:procee!ings:4533J5P:chineseJmissilesJan!J/almartJfactor, AJ
&ut fear of ChinaQs percei#e! martial intentions is both o+er%lown an$ &npro$&cti+e for the " nite! -tates an!
its military. 'ocusing solely on Chinese military capabilities clou!s the critical challenge of pre#enting a
catastrophic -inoJAmerican conflict. 'urthermore, this !istraction obscures the real /or( of gui!ing ChinaQs rise as
an open, selfJconfi!ent, fully integrate! member of the /orl! community. ".-. concern o#er ChinaQs antiJaccess capabilities
primarily center on a ChinaJ1ai/an scenario. A number of military options are open to China in respon!ing to a 1ai/an crisis. 1he Department of
Defense report, Military an! -ecurity De#elopments n#ol#ing the PeopleQs Republic of China 4535 , e*amine! four con#entional military metho!s China
coul! use to force 1ai/anQs ac@uiescence9 bloc(a!e, limite! force or coerci#e option, air an! missile campaign, or in#asion. Ho/e#er, all of these
options re@uire, at minimum, some preparation if for no other reason than to fuel ships, assemble sol!iers, an!
prepare roc(ets. 1here is no feasi%le wa! to imme$iatel! attac# or in+a$e Taiwan o+ernight .
No war , SED (-trategic )conomic Dialogue? resol+ing all short term tensions
Pa&lson 5@ (Henry M.J ".-. -ecretary of the 1reasury. 7A -trategic )conomic )ngagement9 -trengthening ".-.JChinese 1ies.8 Foreign Affairs.
-eptember:Bctober.?
An! rightly so. -ince ,ashington steppe! up its economic engagement /ith &ei;ing through the -)D t/o years ago,
the ".-.JChinese relationship has !eepene! an! e*pan!e!. &y encouraging topJle#el !iscussions of the t/o countriesH longJterm
strategic priorities, the -)D has foun! effecti#e /ays to manage shortJterm tensions surroun!ing tra!e !isputes. t
has alle#iate! a comple* set of concerns in the ".-. Congress in a /ay that has le! to a significant appreciation
of the renminbi an! forestalle! !angerous protectionist legislation. At the same time that ".-. consumers /ere gro/ing !eeply
concerne! about pro!uct safety, the -)D !e#elope! a comprehensi#e plan for impro#ing the @uality an! regulatory o#ersight of foo!s an! !rugs
importe! from China (the effort coul! e#en ser#e as a global mo!el for pro!uct safety?. An! as the /orl! /as becoming more eager to re!uce its
!epen!ence on oil, the -)D initiate! the 1en .ear )nergy an! )n#ironment Cooperation 'rame/or( to help e*pe!ite the "nite! -tatesH an! ChinaHs
efforts to increase their energy efficiency. 1he -)D has enable! progress on significant noneconomic issues an! more
progress on economic issues than other/ise /oul! ha#e occurre!. 1hese successes ha#e create! a foun!ation of
mutual un!erstan!ing an! trust an! a platform for further progress. History has sho/n that the ties bet/een the
"nite! -tates an! China ha#e been most stable an! mutually beneficial /hen a common interest has unite!
lea!ers in ,ashington an! &ei;ing. During the Col! ,ar, balancing the -o#iet "nionHs po/er in Asia /as that share! interest. t generate!
trust for a #ery young ".-.JChinese relationship an! facilitate! substantial bilateral cooperation. %o/, the -)D has reoriente! ".-.JChinese relations
base! on the strategic rationale of sustaining global economic gro/th. 1his unifying theme /ill moti#ate policyma(ers in both
countries an! offers the chance to re!efine the terms of the t/o countriesH relationship from simple cooperation
to ;oint management an!, perhaps e#entually, e#en genuine partnership. -uch a recasting /ill be an in#itation to China to participate in global
affairs as an e@ualJa position that &ei;ing co#ets.
No war? *S an$ china wo&l$ ne+er first stri#e each other war wo&l$ %e too har$ to prep for
an$ economies too intertwine$
Qissinger 1= (Henry A. hair of 2issinger Associates an! a former ".-. -ecretary of -tate an! %ational -ecurity A!#iser. 71he 'uture of ".-.J
Chinese Relations9 Conflict s a Choice, %ot a %ecessity.8 March:April Foreign Affiairs?
s there, then, a point in the @uest for a cooperati#e ".-.JChinese relationship an! in policies !esigne! to achie#e itU 1o be sure, the rise of po/ers
has historically often le! to conflict /ith establishe! countries. &ut con!itions ha#e change!. t is !oubtful that the
lea!ers /ho /ent so blithely into a /orl! /ar in 3<36 /oul! ha#e !one so ha! they (no/n /hat the /orl! /oul! be li(e at its en!. Contemporary
lea!ers can ha#e no such illusions. A ma;or /ar bet/een !e#elope! nuclear countries must bring casualties an!
uphea#als impossible to relate to calculable ob;ecti#es. Preemption is all but e*clu!e!, especially for a
pluralistic !emocracy such as the "nite! -tates. f challenge!, the "nite! -tates /ill !o /hat it must to preser#e its security. &ut it
shoul! not a!opt confrontation as a strategy of choice. n China, the "nite! -tates /oul! encounter an a!#ersary s(ille! o#er the centuries in using
prolonge! conflict as a strategy an! /hose !octrine emphasiAes the psychological e*haustion of the opponent. n an actual conflict, both si!es possess
the capabilities an! the ingenuity to inflict catastrophic !amage on each other. &y the time any such hypothetical conflagration !re/
to a close, all participants /oul! be left e*hauste! an! !ebilitate!. 1hey /oul! then be oblige! to face ane/ the #ery tas( that
confronts them to!ay9 the construction of an international or!er in /hich both countries are significant components. 1he blueprints for containment
!ra/n from Col! ,ar strategies use! by both si!es against an e*pansionist -o#iet "nion !o not apply to current con!itions. 1he economy of the -o#iet
"nion /as /ea( (e*cept for military pro!uction? an! !i! not affect the global economy. Bnce China bro(e off ties an! e;ecte! -o#iet a!#isers, fe/
countries e*cept those forcibly absorbe! into the -o#iet orbit ha! a ma;or sta(e in their economic relationship /ith Mosco/. Contemporary China, by
contrast, is a !ynamic factor in the /orl! economy. t is a principal tra!ing partner of all its neighbors an! most
of the ,estern in!ustrial po/ers, inclu!ing the "nite! -tates. A prolonge! confrontation bet/een China an!
the "nite! -tates /oul! alter the /orl! economy /ith unsettling conse@uences for all.
No war? economic ties an$ other allies in the region ma#e it too ris#!
>s& 11 (JeremyJstaff /riter. 7)conomic 1ies Coul! Help Pre#ent "-JChina ,ar.8 33:3.
http9::///.msnbc.msn.com:i!:6>34>45<:ns:technologyFan!FscienceJinno#ation:t:economicJtiesJcoul!JhelpJpre#entJusJchinaJ/ar:?
1he Ran! CorporationHs analysts put lo/ o!!s on a ChinaJ".-. military conflict ta(ing place, but still lay out !anger
scenarios /here the ".-. an! China face greater ris(s of stumbling into an un/ante! /ar /ith one another. 1hey point to the economic
co!epen!ence of both countries as the best bet against open conflict, similar to ho/ nuclear /eapons ensure! mutually assure!
!estruction for the ".-. an! -o#iet "nion !uring the Col! ,ar. Mt is often sai! that a strong economy is the basis of a strong
!efense,M the Ran! report says. Mn the case of China, a strong ".-. economy is not ;ust the basis for a strong !efense, it is
itself perhaps the best !efense against an a!#enturous China.M -uch Mmutually assure! economic !estructionM
/oul! !e#astate both the ".-. an! China, gi#en ho/ China represents AmericaHs main cre!itor an!
manufacturer. 1he economic fallout coul! lea! to a global recession /orse than that cause! by the financial crisis of 455OJ455<. 1he ".-. still
spen!s more than fi#e times on !efense compare! /ith China, but Ran! analysts suggest that ChinaHs !efense bu!get coul!
outstrip that of the ".-. /ithin the ne*t 45 years. 1he ".-. Air 'orce an! %a#yHs current e!ge in the Pacific has also begun to shrin( as China !e#elops
aircraft, ships, submarines an! missiles capable of stri(ing farther out from its coast. )*isting ".-. a!#antages in cyber/ar an! antiJsatellite capabilities
also !onHt offset the fact that the ".-. military !epen!s far more hea#ily on computer net/or(s an! satellites than ChinaHs military. 1hat ma(es a fullJout
cyber/ar or satellite attac(s too ris(y for the ".-., but perhaps also for China. M1here are no li#es lost I ;ust e*tensi#e harm, heightene! antagonism, an!
loss of confi!ence in net/or( security,M Ran! analysts say. M1here /oul! be no H/inner.HM Bpen military conflict bet/een China an! the ".-. coul! also
ha#e Mhistorically unparallele!M economic conse@uences e#en if neither country acti#ely engages in economic /arfare, Ran! analysts say. 1he ".-.
coul! both boost !irect !efense in the unli(ely case of /ar an! re!uce the ris( of escalation by strengthening
ChinaHs neighbors. -uch neighbors, inclu!ing n!ia, -outh 2orea, Japan an! 1ai/an, also represent possible
flashpoints for ChinaJ".-. conflict in the scenarios lai! out by the Ran! report.
No war? China has too man! $omestic pro%lems
Qissinger 1= (Henry A., chair of 2issinger Associates an! a former ".-. -ecretary of -tate an! %ational
-ecurity A!#iser. 71he 'uture of ".-.JChinese Relations9 Conflict s a Choice, %ot a %ecessity.8 March:April
Foreign Affairs?
Another reason for Chinese restraint in at least the me!ium term is the !omestic a!aptation the country faces.
1he gap in Chinese society bet/een the largely !e#elope! coastal regions an! the un!e#elope! /estern regions
has ma!e HuHs ob;ecti#e of a Mharmonious societyM both compelling an! elusi#e. Cultural changes compoun! the
challenge. 1he ne*t !eca!es /ill /itness, for the first time, the full impact of oneJchil! families on a!ult Chinese
society. 1his is boun! to mo!ify cultural patterns in a society in /hich large families ha#e tra!itionally ta(en
care of the age! an! the han!icappe!. ,hen four gran!parents compete for the attention of one chil! an! in#est him /ith the aspirations
heretofore sprea! across many offspring, a ne/ pattern of insistent achie#ement an! #ast, perhaps unfulfillable,
e*pectations may arise. All these !e#elopments /ill further complicate the challenges of ChinaHs go#ernmental
transition starting in 4534, in /hich the presi!encyR the #iceJpresi!encyR the consi!erable ma;ority of the positions in ChinaHs Politburo, -tate
Council, an! Central Military CommissionR an! thousan!s of other (ey national an! pro#incial posts /ill be staffe! /ith ne/ appointees. 1he ne/
lea!ership group /ill consist, for the most part, of members of the first Chinese generation in a century an! a half to
ha#e li#e! all their li#es in a country at peace. ts primary challenge /ill be fin!ing a /ay to !eal /ith a society
re#olutioniAe! by changing economic con!itions, unprece!ente! an! rapi!ly e*pan!ing technologies of communication, a tenuous
global economy, an! the migration of hun!re!s of millions of people from ChinaHs countrysi!e to its cities. 1he mo!el of go#ernment that emerges /ill
li(ely be a synthesis of mo!ern i!eas an! tra!itional Chinese political an! cultural concepts, an! the @uest for that synthesis /ill pro#i!e the ongoing
!rama of ChinaHs e#olution.
C(NMESTI(N
A&thor In$ict
Aff st&$ies are inacc&rate an$ flawe$ , their a&thors e2aggerate the economic impact of
congestion
Qlai%er 11 0 -enior Program Associate, -pecial nitiati#es, Metropolitan Policy Program at the &roo(ings nstitution (Julia 2laiber, 74535 "MR
Remains a 'la/e! an! Mislea!ing Gui!e to "rban 1ransportation8, C)Bs for Cities, 3:45:33, http9::///.ceosforcities.org:blog:4535JumrJremainsJaJ
fla/e!Jan!Jmislea!ingJgui!eJtoJurbanJtransportation d A2?
Chicago, January 45, 4533 J 1he 4535 "rban Mobility Report release! to!ay by the 1e*as 1ransportation nstitute !oes
nothing to correct the problems i!entifie! in an in!epen!ent analysis of the report release! last year by Joe
Cortright for C)Bs for Cities. t continues to present an e*aggerate! an! incorrect picture of the e*tent an! causes of
urban transportation problems an! their solutions, an! it fails to recogniAe the ma;or contribution lan! use
ma(es to time spent in traffic. A !etaile! criti@ue of the metho!ology an! results of pre#ious "rban Mobility Reports release!
by C)Bs for Cities last Bctober i!entifie! a series of fla/s in the !ata an! analysis in the "MR an! outline! a series of
impro#ements an! alternati#e measures that can be use! to assess urban transportation systems. A first re#ie/ of
the 4535 "MR re#eals the follo/ing concerns about its accuracy an! usefulness9 Continues to rely on the 1ra#el 1ime n!e*,
/hich is built on the unrealistic baseline assumption that tra#el times shoul! (an! coul!? be no longer !uring
pea( perio!s as !uring nonJpea( perio!s an! obscures the effect of lan! use patterns in creating longer tra#el
!istances. )liminates references to a misinterprete! 3<O3 stu!y of fuel economy that /as the basis of earlier fuel
consumption estimates, but !oesnQt e*plain ho/ ne/ numbers are generate! an! !oesnQt allo/ for the fact that some
spee! re!uctions associate! /ith traffic actually lo/er fuel consumption. Replaces its inaccurate, mo!elJbase!
estimates of traffic le#els /ith real /orl! !ata from %RX, but continues to rely on inaccurate spee! #olume
mo!els an! has not correcte! earlier o#erJestimate! traffic congestion an! associate! economic costs. Most
importantly, by ignoring 0 an! thereby concealing 0 the effects of longer tra#el !istances in some cities, the "MR continues to get the ran(ing of cities
/ith the /orst tra#el problems /rong. 'or e*ample, consi!er %ash#ille an! Portlan!. Accor!ing to the "MR, Portlan! has a /orse traffic problem than
%ash#ille, /ith a 1ra#el 1ime n!e* of 3.4K. an! K= hours of !elay per year per tra#eler, compare! to %ash#ille, /hich has a 1ra#el 1ime n!e* of 3.3> an!
K> hours of !elay. &ut these !ata also mean that the a#erage pea( tra#eler in %ash#ille has to spen! a total of 4=O hours per year commuting compare! to
the commuter in Portlan! /ho tra#els only 3<K hours per year. -o the commuter in Portlan! tra#els P> fe/er hours annually because of shorter tra#el
!istance, !ue in large part to less spra/ling !e#elopment patterns. Consistent /ith conclusions presente! in Dri#en Apart, the
"MR completely misses the importance of lan! use planning as a (ey to re!ucing the bur!en of pea( perio!
tra#el.
Their st&$ies are erroneo&s an$ contain metho$ological inacc&racies
Alpert 11 0 'oun!er an! )!itorJinJChief of Greater Greater ,ashington, he has ha! a lifelong interest in great cities an! great communities. He
/or(e! as a Pro!uct Manager for Google for si* years an! has li#e! in the &oston, -an 'rancisco, an! %e/ .or( metro areas in a!!ition to ,ashington,
DC (Da#i! Alpert, 7Congestion report pushes spra/l through fla/e! analysis8, Greater Greater ,ashington, 3:45:33,
http9::greatergreater/ashington.org:post:O<5P:congestionJreportJpushesJspra/lJthroughJfla/e!Janalysis: d A2?
1he 1e*as 1ransportation nstitute to!ay release! the final #ersion of their report on congestion, /hich ran(s the DC
area tie! for first /ith Chicago in hours /aste! in traffic. "nfortunately, the reportHs metho!ology completely mislea!s as to the
seriousness of traffic, an! 11 is pushing the /rong policy solutions. 1he 11 report narro/ly loo(s at only one
factor9 ho/ fast traffic mo#es. Consi!er t/o hypothetical cities. n Denseopolis, people li#e /ithin 4 miles of /or( on a#erage, but the roa!s
are fairly clogge! an! !ri#ers can only go about 45 miles per hour. Ho/e#er, it only ta(es an a#erage of = minutes to get to /or(, /hich isnHt ba!. Bn the
other han!, in -pra/l#ille, people li#e about K5 miles from /or( on a#erage, but there are lots an! lots of fastJmo#ing free/ays, so people can !ri#e =5
mph. 1hat means it ta(es K5 minutes to get to /or(. ,hich city is more congeste!U &y 11Hs metho!s, itHs Denseopolis. &ut itHs the people of -pra/l#ille
/ho spen! more time commuting, an! thus ha#e less time to be /ith their families an! for recreation. -a!ly, !espite C)Bs for Cities pointing
out these metho!ological problems last year, 11 /ent ahea! an! finaliAe! its report /ithout fi*ing them (PD's?.
11 ran(s Portlan! as /orse than %ash#ille, /ith a 1ra#el 1ime n!e* (11? of 3.4K 3.3> for %ash#ille an! 3.3> 3.4K for Portlan!. Ho/e#er, because of
greater spra/l, %ash#ille commuters spen! an a#erage of 4=O hours per year commuting, /hile the a#erage Portlan! commuter spen!s 3<K hours per
year. ,hat !oes this mean for public policy an! the ,ashington regionU 11Hs !ata is often use! to ;ustify spen!ing money on ne/
free/ay capacity, since congestion soun!s ba!. 11 e#en promotes this approach. 1im +oma*, a coJauthor of the report,
tol! the PostHs Ashley Halsey , M.ou can !o little things li(e stagger /or( hours, fi* trafficJlight timing an! clear /rec(s faster, but in the en!, thereHs a
nee! for more capacity.M M1hat /e are congeste! is not ne/s, but 11Hs report !oes tremen!ous !amage, because they fail to recogniAe
the primary cause of our congestion an! imply that /e coul! simply /i!en roa!s to buil! our /ay out of the problem,M sai!
-te/art -ch/artA, )*ecuti#e Director of the Coalition for -marter Gro/th. ,hat +oma* !i!nHt say, an! /hich Halsey !i!nHt print e#en though he shoul!
(no/ better, is that there are other approaches besi!es those Mlittle things.M ,hat you can !o is concentrate future gro/th aroun! e*isting hubs /ith
more resi!ents, ;obs, an! multimo!al transportation. 1hatHs /hat the Metropolitan ,ashington Council of Go#ernments (CBG? is trying to push /ith its
Region 'or/ar! plan an! the relate! M,hat ,oul! t 1a(eUM scenario (PD'?. 1hese in#ol#e focusing !e#elopment in places li(e 1ysons Corner an! the
Route 3 corri!or in 'airfa*, aroun! un!erutiliAe! Metro stations in Prince GeorgeHs, future ones in +ou!oun, an! MARC an! CR) hubs in Marylan! an!
Cirginia. Arlington achie#e! substantial ;ob an! resi!ent gro/th in its RosslynJ&allston corri!or /ithout a!!ing
to traffic congestion, as has Montgomery /ith gro/th in -il#er -pring an! &ethes!a an! DC !e#elopment in places li(e %oMA an! the Capitol
Ri#erfront area. Regional lea!ers shoul! be less concerne! /ith spee!ing up e*isting cars, /hich ;ust lea!s to spra/l farther
out, an! in#est more in fin!ing /ays to gro/ the region /ithout a!!ing traffic. n fact, thatHs ;ust /hat the DC region has !one. Another, better part of
11Hs analysis measures the amount of time sa#ings that come from each regionHs transitR DC is Kr! best. 1hat metric still !oesnHt account
for the #alue of people li#ing nearer to their ;obs, ho/e#er. &et/een better location an! transit, to page >5, congestion has not
increase! since 3<<< e#en on 11Hs fla/e! scale. 1hat means our region has been successfully gro/ing /ithout a!!ing traffic. nstea! of M,ashington
area tie! /ith Chicago for traffic congestion, stu!y fin!s,M this morningHs Post hea!line this morning coul! ha#e rea!, M,ashington areaHs traffic hasnHt
gotten /orse in a !eca!e than(s to smart gro/th.M tHs more than a little baffling, though, that Halsey !i!nHt ma(e any reference to the C)Bs for Cities
report or the CBG /or(. He also /rote, MResearchers sai! the !epth of the !ata use! in this yearHs stu!y far surpasse! the @uality of information use! in
past years, gi#ing the results an unprece!ente! !egree of accuracy.M -o, the researchers at this suppose!ly #ery highly regar!e!
institute say that their !ata is super great, but they an! the reporters ignore! the /i!elyJpubliciAe! criti@ues of
their metho!ology. Maybe itHs time for 11 to stop being so highly regar!e!.
Aff st&$ies are flawe$ , congestion is not nearl! as %a$ as their a&thors posit
)itman 11 0 e*ecuti#e !irector of the Cictoria 1ransport Policy nstitute (1o!! +itman, 71hreats of Gri!loc( are Greatly )*aggerate!8, PlanetiAen,
K:<:33, http9::///.planetiAen.com:no!e:6O6>3 d A2?
A fe/ /ee(s ago the 1e*as 1ransportation nstitute (11? release! its latest "rban Mobility Report, an! yester!ay %RX release! its %ational 1raffic
-corecar! 4535 Annual Report. &oth paint a grim picture of roa!/ay con!itions. 7America is bac( on the roa! to gri!loc(,8 /arns
%RX. 7Congestion costs continue to rise9 measure! in constant 455< !ollars, the cost of congestion has risen from T46
billion in 3<O4 to T33> billion in 455<,8 /arns 11. &e afrai!^ &e #ery afrai!^ &e afrai! of the hyperbole. 1hese
stu!ies greatly e*aggerate estimate! congestion costs. +etQs put this into perspecti#e. %RXQs analysis in!icates that
congestion !elays a!! about 35L !uration to an a#erage urbanJpea( free/ay trip. 11 analysis in!icates that
congestion !elays an! traffic inci!ents a!! about 45L !uration to urbanJpea( free/ay an! arterial trips. 'or
e*ample, a typical urban automobile commute, 4:K of /hich is on arterials an! free/ays, that ta(es K5 minutes un!er uncongeste! con!itions /ill ta(e
K4JK6 minutes !uring pea( perio!s. -ince only about 3>L of total #ehicle tra#el occurs un!er these con!itions, this
in!icates that traffic congestion a!!s 3JKL to total motor #ehicle tra#el times. 1his is har!ly a crisis. 1he 11
an! %RX metho!ologies greatly e*aggerate true congestion costs. As !iscusse! in economist Joe Cortright report, Dri#en
Apart9 Ho/ -pra/l is +engthening Bur Commutes an! ,hy Mislea!ing Mobility Measures are Ma(ing 1hings ,orse these stu!ies assume that
freeflo/ tra#el is optimal although that /oul! be economically inefficientR use e*cessi#ely high tra#el time
#aluesR e*aggerate the increase! fuel consumption cause! by congestionR an! ignore the increase!
transportation costs resulting from more !isperse! lan! !e#elopment. 1hese metho!ologies actually imply that
increases in uncongeste! high/ay !ri#ing, for e*ample !ue to spra/l, re!uce congestion costs because !elays
are !i#i!e! by more total miles !ri#en. A more rational metho! for calculating congestion costs is to test
consumersH /illingnessJtoJpay for re!uce! !elay. 1his approach usually results in much smaller congestion
cost #alues. Despite all the complaining about congestion, a recent public sur#ey foun! that, although Americans consi!er transportation
infrastructure impro#ements important, they strongly oppose ne/ fuel ta*es, roa! tolls or CM1 fees to re!uce this problem. )#en %e/ .or( City has
faile! to implement congestion tolls. 1hat users are un/illing to pay for re!uce! congestion in!icate that the 11 cost
estimates are greatly e*aggerate!. "nfortunately, the 1e*as 1ransportation nstitute has so far ignore! this criticism. %either their reports
nor their /ebsite ac(no/le!ge CortrightQs report or other criti@ues of their metho!ologies. Most users of this information ha#e no i!ea
of the biases an! !istortions in these stu!ies. 1he truth is, traffic congestion ten!s to maintain e@uilibrium9 it
gets ba! enough consumers shift some pea( perio! !ri#ing to other times, mo!es or !estinations. -imply
e*pan!ing roa!/ays cannot re!uce congestion o#er the longJrun since generate! traffic e#entually fills the
a!!e! capacity, often /ithin months or a fe/ years. 1ruly re!ucing congestion re@uires impro#ing tra#el alternati#es, such as gra!eJseparate!
public transit, an! more efficient roa! an! par(ing pricing. People sometimes e*trapolate traffic gro/th tren!s, an! /arn that
roa!s /ill soon reach gri!loc( unless some action is ta(en. -uch claims ignore traffic congestionQs ten!ency
to/ar! e@uilibrium. Gri!loc( is a specific con!ition that occurs /hen bac(ups in a street net/or( bloc( intersections, stopping traffic flo/.
Gri!loc( can be a#oi!e! /ith proper intersection !esign an! traffic la/ enforcement. ncreasing regional high/ay
capacity ten!s to increase this ris( by a!!ing more traffic to surface streets /here gri!loc( occurs.
Their a&thors- mo$els are inacc&rate
)itman 1= 0 e*ecuti#e !irector of the Cictoria 1ransport Policy nstitute (1o!! +itman, 7-mart Congestion Relief Comprehensi#e Analysis Bf
1raffic Congestion Costs an! Congestion Re!uction &enefits8, Cictoria 1ransport Policy nstitute, >:4>:34, http9::///.#tpi.org:congFrelief.p!f d A2?
1hese e*amples illustrate ho/ congestion e#aluation practices can affect planning !ecisions. Different assumptions an! e#aluation
metho!s can result in #ery !ifferent conclusions about the magnitu!e of congestion costs an! the effecti#eness
of specific congestion re!uction strategies. Current metho!s ten! to measure congestion intensity, /hich ten!s
to fa#or roa!/ay e*pansion. )#aluation metho!s that measure congestion impacts per capita ten! to fa#or
other congestion re!uction strategies because they recogniAe the congestion a#oi!e! by shifts to alternati#e mo!es an! more accessible
lan! use !e#elopment. 1his is not to !eny that traffic congestion imposes significant costs an! !eser#es serious consi!eration in planning, but it is
possible to e*aggerate congestion costs compare! /ith other transport costs, an! to e*aggerate roa!/ay e*pansion benefits
compare! /ith other transport system impro#ements. Current e#aluation practices focus on the costs of insufficient roa!/ay
capacity but lac( a comparable #ocabulary to !escribe the costs of e*cessi#e roa!/ay capacity, ina!e@uate
tra#el options, an! un!erprice! roa! use. Although most mo!ern transport planning !oes recogniAe other impacts an! ob;ecti#es,
congestion continues to !ominate. 1his emphasis occurs, in part, because stan!ar! metho!s e*ist for
measuring congestion impacts, /hich creates an impression of greater confi!ence an! importance than other
impacts. .et, this confi!ence is misplace!, as !iscusse! in this report. t is important that !ecisionJma(ers un!erstan!
the omissions an! biases in current congestion costing metho!s /hen they use the results of such analysis. 1o
the !egree that congestion costs an! roa!/ay e*pansion benefits are e*aggerate!, an! alternati#e transport system
impro#ement un!er#alue!, the transport planning process /ill fail to implement the most cost effecti#e options. t can create selfJfulfilling
prophecies /ith uninten!e! conse@uences. Congestion re!uction efforts often in#ol#e choosing bet/een mutually e*clusi#e options9
either e*pan! roa!/ays or create more compact, multiJmo!al communities. -uch !ecisions can ha#e !i#erse economic, social an!
en#ironmental impacts. 1his is a timely issue !ue to changes in transport !eman!s an! planning ob;ecti#es.
Congestion $oesn-t collapse the econom!Gtheir a&thors conf&se correlation with ca&sation
D&m%a&gh PhD =51=Iassociate professor an! interim !irector at the -chool of "rban an! Regional Planning at 'lori!a Atlantic
"ni#ersity, Ph.D. in Ci#il an! )n#ironmental )ngineering from Georgia 1ech, ()ric, 7Rethin(ing the )conomics of 1raffic Congestion8, 1he Atlantic
Cities, June 3
st
, 4534, http9::///.theatlanticcities.com:commute:4534:5=:!efenseJcongestion:433O:?::chm
,ith a fe/ notable e*ceptions, transportation planning practice in the "nite! -tates is focuse! on managing or eliminating
traffic congestion. Regar!less of /hether planners are a!#ocating for high/ay infrastructure to impro#e le#elJofJser#ice, or transit pro;ects
inten!e! to 7get cars off the roa!,8 the un!erlying assumption is that congestion relief is an unmitigate! goo!. -uch
arguments are often base! on the i!ea that traffic congestion an! #ehicle !elay are ba! for the economy. Accor!ing to
the 1e*as 1ransportation nstitute, #ehicle !elay costs Americans T33> billion in /aste! fuel an! time each year. 1he common interpretation of such
statistics is that our cities an! regions /oul! be so much more economically pro!ucti#e if only /e coul! eliminate the congestion that occurs on urban
streets. As Jane Jacobs has obser#e!, city economies generate the resources nee!e! to sol#e city problems. &ut this begs the @uestion9 is traffic
congestion really a !rag on the economyU )conomies are measure! not in terms of #ehicle !elay or the amount of tra#el that
people !o, but in terms of the !ollar #alue of the goo!s an! ser#ices that they pro!uce. f it is true that congestion is
!etrimental to a regionQs economy, then one /oul! e*pect that people li#ing in areas /ith lo/ le#els of traffic
congestion /oul! be more economically pro!ucti#e, on a per capita basis, than those in areas /ith high le#els of congestion. 1his is
a testable assertion. ,ith the help of my research assistant ,enhao +i, sought to !etermine /hether #ehicle !elay ha! a negati#e effect on urban
economies. combine! 11Qs !ata on traffic !elay per capita /ith estimates of regional GDP per capita, ac@uire! from
the ".-. &ureau of )conomic Analysis. use! 4535 !ata for both #ariables, con#erte! them to their natural logs, an! mo!ele! them using regression
analysis. An! /hat !i! fin!T As per capita $ela! went &p so $i$ MDP per capita. )#ery 35 percent increase in traffic !elay
per person /as associate! /ith a K.6 percent increase in per capita GDP. 'or those intereste! in statistics, the relationship /as significant at the 5.555
le#el, an! the mo!el ha! an R4 of 5.KP>. n laymanQs terms, this /as statisticallyJmeaningful relationship. -uch a fin!ing seems
counterintuiti#e on its surface. Ho/ coul! being stuc( in traffic lea! people to be more pro!ucti#eU 1he relationship is almost certainly not
causal. nstea!, regional GDP an! traffic congestion are tie! to a common mo!erating #ariable J the presence of a
#ibrant, economicallyJpro!ucti#e city. An! as city economies gro/, so too !oes the !eman! for tra#el. People tra#el for /or( an! meetings,
for shopping an! recreation. 1hey pro!uce an! !eman! goo!s an! ser#ices, /hich further increases tra#el !eman!. An!
/hen the streets become congeste! an! !ri#ing incon#enient, people mo#e to more accessible areas, rebuil! at higher !ensities, tra#el shorter !istances,
an! shift tra#el mo!es. -tate! another /ay, people a!apt to congeste! en#ironments. &ecause cities pro#i!e greater access to
;ob opportunities than !o rural areas, as /ell as /ages that are more than K5 percent higher than their nonJ
metropolitan counterparts they ha#e a po/erful economic incenti#e to !o so. 'ortunately for our cities an! their economies, urban
en#ironments are precisely /hat is sought by the millennial generation. OO percent of millennials report that they /oul!
prefer to li#e in urban en#ironments, an! they are alrea!y !ri#ing less an! ri!ing transit more than their Gen X an! boomer counterparts.
n!ee!, many millennials #ie/ !ri#ing as a #ice, /ith >> percent in!icating that they ha#e ma!e a !eliberate effort to re!uce the amount of !ri#ing that
they !o. 1hey are also lea!ing a surge in cycling in cities li(e -eattle, Minneapolis, Den#er, an! ,ashington, D.C., all of /hich ha#e seen their share of
bi(e commuting !ouble o#er the last !eca!e. 1hese tren!s are of great concern to the auto in!ustry. ,hile beha#ioral a!aptations an! changes in
consumer preferences ha#e alrea!y begun to a!!ress the issue of personal transportation in congeste! en#ironments, a secon! issue remains
unans/ere!9 ho/ !o congeste! areas !eal /ith freight an! goo!s mo#ementU A common argument is that if a
regionQs roa!/ays are congeste!, goo!s /ill be unable to get to mar(et an! its economy /ill falter. .et e#en the
most casual glance at our most congeste! regions J %e/ .or(, +os Angeles, an! -an 'rancisco to name three J @uic(ly !ispels
this i!ea. 1hese are not places /here consumer choices are limite!, nor are they areas /ith stagnant economies.
Suite the contrary. 1hey are precisely the areas /here one fin!s not only the most #ibrant economies, but also the
greatest #ariety of goo!s an! ser#ices. Ho/ is this possibleU t is important to recogniAe that ma;or manufacturing
an! freight acti#ities rarely occur in congeste! city centers, /here lan! #alues are too high to ma(e these acti#ities economically
#iable. +i(e/ise, longJhaul truc( !ri#ers, /ho are pai! on a perJmile tra#elle! basis, ha#e a po/erful economic incenti#e to
a#oi! tra#eling through urban areas !uring congeste! time perio!s, /hich re!uces the number of miles per
hour they can tra#el, an! thus the number of !ollars per hour they recei#e for their time. "rban economies naturally
encourage these acti#ities to mo#e a/ay from congeste! areas an! time perio!s.
No Impact
No impact to congestion , no ca&sal relationship with economic $etriment
D&m%a&gh 1= 0 associate professor an! interim !irector at the -chool of "rban an! Regional Planning at 'lori!a Atlantic "ni#ersity ()ric
Dumbaugh, 7Rethin(ing the )conomics of 1raffic Congestion8, 1he Atlantic Cities, =:3:34,
http9::///.theatlanticcities.com:commute:4534:5=:!efenseJcongestion:433O: d A2?
,ith a fe/ notable e*ceptions, transportation planning practice in the "nite! -tates is focuse! on managing or eliminating
traffic congestion. Regar!less of /hether planners are a!#ocating for high/ay infrastructure to impro#e le#elJofJser#ice, or transit pro;ects
inten!e! to 7get cars off the roa!,8 the un!erlying assumption is that congestion relief is an unmitigate! goo!. -uch
arguments are often base! on the i!ea that traffic congestion an! #ehicle !elay are ba! for the economy.
Accor!ing to the 1e*as 1ransportation nstitute, #ehicle !elay costs Americans T33> billion in /aste! fuel an! time each year. 1he common
interpretation of such statistics is that our cities an! regions /oul! be so much more economically pro!ucti#e if only
/e coul! eliminate the congestion that occurs on urban streets. &ut this begs the @uestion9 is traffic congestion really a
!rag on the economyU )conomies are measure! not in terms of #ehicle !elay or the amount of tra#el that
people !o, but in terms of the !ollar #alue of the goo!s an! ser#ices that they pro!uce. f it is true that
congestion is !etrimental to a regionQs economy, then one /oul! e*pect that people li#ing in areas /ith lo/
le#els of traffic congestion /oul! be more economically pro!ucti#e, on a per capita basis, than those in areas
/ith high le#els of congestion. 1his is a testable assertion. ,ith the help of my research assistant ,enhao +i, sought to !etermine /hether
#ehicle !elay ha! a negati#e effect on urban economies. combine! 11Qs !ata on traffic !elay per capita /ith estimates of regional GDP per capita,
ac@uire! from the ".-. &ureau of )conomic Analysis. use! 4535 !ata for both #ariables, con#erte! them to their natural logs, an! mo!ele! them using
regression analysis. An! /hat !i! fin!U As per capita !elay /ent up, so !i! GDP per capita. )#ery 35 percent increase in
traffic !elay per person /as associate! /ith a K.6 percent increase in per capita GDP. 'or those intereste! in statistics, the
relationship /as significant at the 5.555 le#el, an! the mo!el ha! an R4 of 5.KP>. n laymanQs terms, this /as statisticallyJmeaningful
relationship. -uch a fin!ing seems counterintuiti#e on its surface. Ho/ coul! being stuc( in traffic lea! people to be more pro!ucti#eU 1he
relationship is almost certainly not causal. nstea!, regional GDP an! traffic congestion are tie! to a common
mo!erating #ariable J the presence of a #ibrant, economicallyJpro!ucti#e city. An! as city economies gro/, so
too !oes the !eman! for tra#el. People tra#el for /or( an! meetings, for shopping an! recreation. 1hey
pro!uce an! !eman! goo!s an! ser#ices, /hich further increases tra#el !eman!. An! /hen the streets become
congeste! an! !ri#ing incon#enient, people mo#e to more accessible areas, rebuil! at higher !ensities, tra#el
shorter !istances, an! shift tra#el mo!es. -tate! another /ay, people a!apt to congeste! en#ironments. &ecause
cities pro#i!e greater access to ;ob opportunities than !o rural areas, as /ell as /ages that are more than K5
percent higher than their nonJmetropolitan counterparts they ha#e a po/erful economic incenti#e to !o so. 'ortunately for our
cities an! their economies, urban en#ironments are precisely /hat is sought by the millennial generation. OO percent of millennials report that they
/oul! prefer to li#e in urban en#ironments, an! they are alrea!y !ri#ing less an! ri!ing transit more than their Gen X an! boomer counterparts. n!ee!,
many millennials #ie/ !ri#ing as a #ice, /ith >> percent in!icating that they ha#e ma!e a !eliberate effort to re!uce the amount of !ri#ing that they !o.
1hey are also lea!ing a surge in cycling in cities li(e -eattle, Minneapolis, Den#er, an! ,ashington, D.C., all of /hich ha#e seen their share of bi(e
commuting !ouble o#er the last !eca!e. 1hese tren!s are of great concern to the auto in!ustry. ,hile beha#ioral a!aptations an! changes in consumer
preferences ha#e alrea!y begun to a!!ress the issue of personal transportation in congeste! en#ironments, a secon! issue remains unans/ere!9 ho/ !o
congeste! areas !eal /ith freight an! goo!s mo#ementU A common argument is that if a regionQs roa!/ays are congeste!,
goo!s /ill be unable to get to mar(et an! its economy /ill falter. .et e#en the most casual glance at our most
congeste! regions J %e/ .or(, +os Angeles, an! -an 'rancisco to name three J @uic(ly !ispels this i!ea. 1hese
are not places /here consumer choices are limite!, nor are they areas /ith stagnant economies. Suite the contrary.
1hey are precisely the areas /here one fin!s not only the most #ibrant economies, but also the greatest #ariety
of goo!s an! ser#ices. Ho/ is this possibleU t is important to recogniAe that ma;or manufacturing an! freight acti#ities rarely occur in congeste!
city centers, /here lan! #alues are too high to ma(e these acti#ities economically #iable. +i(e/ise, longJhaul truc( !ri#ers, /ho are pai! on a perJmile
tra#elle! basis, ha#e a po/erful economic incenti#e to a#oi! tra#eling through urban areas !uring congeste! time perio!s, /hich re!uces the number of
miles per hour they can tra#el, an! thus the number of !ollars per hour they recei#e for their time. "rban economies naturally encourage
these acti#ities to mo#e a/ay from congeste! areas an! time perio!s. t is ne#ertheless true that goo!s mo#ement is gro/ing in
the "nite! -tates, ma(ing it a transportation issue that cannot be !ismisse! lightly. -houl! a region !isco#er that it nee!s a!!itional capacity for freight
traffic, plenty of capacity can be foun! by con#erting a 7free8 high/ay lane into a truc(Jonly toll lane, /hich not only allocates high/ay capacity for goo!s
mo#ement, but /hich also generates the re#enues nee!e! to pay for the high/ayQs maintenance. Gi#en that high/ay infrastructure in the "nite! -tates is
aging an! in gro/ing nee! of repair, an! that the ongoing !ecline of fe!eral gas ta* re#enues has ma!e it !ifficult for many state an! local go#ernments
to fun! basic high/ay maintenance, such solutions are li(ely to loo( increasingly attracti#e in the future. ,ithin cities themsel#es, the rele#ant
issue is neither manufacturing nor longJhaul transport, but the mo#ement of goo!s !estine! for local mar(ets. 1his is
currently a!!resse! through a #ariety of strategies, inclu!ing the sche!uling of !eli#eries to offJpea( perio!s an! the use
of bicycle couriers in highlyJcongeste! areas. t has also le! to the !e#elopment of more technologicallyJ
sophisticate! solutions, such as the use of GP-Jbase! fleet management systems that permit !ynamic trip
sche!uling an! routing, allo/ing !ri#ers to bypass localiAe! poc(ets of traffic congestion. 1his is a gro/th
in!ustry that is pro;ecte! to generate more than T< billion in annual re#enues by 453>. As Jane Jacobs has obser#e!,
city economies generate the resources nee!e! to sol#e city problems. %one of this is to suggest that there is no benefit in ha#ing
our transportation system operate efficiently. &ut automobile congestion, #ehicle !elay, an! their pro*y, le#elJofJser#ice, are
not measures of system efficiency. %or are they measures of economic #itality. 1hey are nothing more or less
than measures of ho/ con#enient it is to !ri#e an automobile.
Congestion is e2aggerate$ , it has a minimal effect on the econom!
Mallett L 0 Analyst in 1ransportation Policy Resources, -cience, an! n!ustry Di#ision (,illiam John Mallett, 7-urface 1ransportation Congestion9
Policy an! ssues8, CR- Report 'or Congress, >:35:5P, http9::///./s!ot./a.go#:%R:r!onlyres:K)>><'>AJ<<>OJ6'5>JO3=CJ
3)C545=<&A)K:5:-urface1ransportationCongestionPolicyan!ssuesCR-.p!f d A2?
t is commonplace these !ays to attempt to @uantify the costs of congestion an! a!! them together to arri#e at
a total cost of congestion to the economy, sometimes e*presse! as a share of GDP. 1his approach is particularly
common in accounting for the costs of roa! traffic congestion, as 11 !oes in terms of e*tra time an! fuel, an! other researchers
ha#e attempte! to calculate more comprehensi#ely. 3>> 1here are, ho/e#er, some problems /ith this approach. 1hese cost
estimates are often base! on the premise of 7freeJflo/ing traffic,8 /hich, as !iscusse! abo#e, ten!s to
e*aggerate the amount of congestion e*perience!. 'urthermore, total cost estimates suggest that there is a
monetary /in!fall /aiting to be !istribute! to e#ery househol!, /hen in reality, eliminating congestion, if it
/ere possible, /oul! only sa#e most tra#elers a fe/ minutes on pea(Jperio! trips. 3>= Conse@uently, a number of
e*perts @uestion the calculation of total costs an! suggest that /hat matters in practical terms is the change in
the cost of congestion brought about by a specific feasible pro;ects or act of policy.... As economists /oul! say, /e nee!
to change our thin(ing from total costs to marginal costs. 3>
CI/E' 4A'
No 4ar
No c!%er war???ass&mes !o&r warrants
Fo2 11 P:4, $-tuart 'o*9 Assistant )!itor, nno#ation %e/s Daily, 7,hy Cyber/ar s "nli(ely,8 http9::///.securityne/s!aily.com:OK5Jcyber/arJ
unli(elyJ!eterrenceJcyberJ/ar.html, AJ
)#en as more an! more countries in#est in the i!ea of cyber/arfare, c!%erspace remains largel! peacef&l
insofar as actual /ar is concerne!. n the t/o !eca!es since cyber/ar first became possible, there hasnHt been a
single e#ent that politicians, generals an! security e*perts agree on as ha#ing passe! the threshol! for strategic
cyber/ar. n fact, the attac(s that ha#e occurre! ha#e fallen so far short of a proper cyber/ar that many ha#e
%eg&n to $o&%t that c!%erwarfare is e+en possi%le . 1he reluctance to engage in strategic cyber/arfare
stems mostly from the uncertain results such a conflict /oul! bring, the lac( of moti#ation on the part of the
possible combatants an! their share! inability to !efen! against counterattac(s. Many of the systems that an
aggressi#e cyberattac( /oul! !amage are actually as #aluable to any potential attac(er as they /oul! be to the
#ictim. 1he fi#e countries capable of largeJscale cyber/ar (srael, the ".-., the ".2., Russia an! China? ha#e more to lose if a
cyber/ar /ere to escalate into a shooting /ar than they /oul! gain from a successful cyberattac(. M1he halfJ
!oAen countries that ha#e cyber capability are $eterre$ from c!%erwar %eca&se of the fear of the
American response . %obo!y /ants this to spiral out of control ,M sai! James +e/is, senior fello/ an! !irector of technology
an! public policy at the Center for -trategic an! nternational -tu!ies in ,ashington, D.C. M1he countries that are capable of !oing this
!onHt ha#e a reason to,M +e/is a!!e!. MChinese officials ha#e sai! to me, H,hy /oul! /e bring !o/n ,all -treet
/hen /e o/n so much of itUH 1hey li(e money almost as much as /e !o.M Deterrence pla!s a ma8or factor
in pre+enting c!%erwar . Attac(s across the nternet /oul! fa#or the aggressor so hea#ily that no country
has !e#elope! an effecti#e !efense. -houl! one country initiate a cyberattac(, the #ictim coul! @uic(ly counterJattac(,
lea#ing both countries e@ually !egra!e!, +e/is tol! nno#ation%e/sDaily. )#en if an attac(er /ere to o#ercome his fear
of retaliation, the lo/ rate of success /oul! naturally gi#e him pause. Any cyberattac( /oul! target the types of
comple* systems that coul! collapse on their o/n, such as electrical systems or ban(ing net/or(s. &ut
e*perience gaine! in fi*ing !ayJtoJ!ay problems on those systems /oul! allo/ the engineers /ho maintain
them to @uic(ly un!o !amage cause! by e#en the most comple* cyberattac(, sai! George -mith, a senior fello/ at
Globalsecurity.org in Ale*an!ria, Ca. M.ou mean to tell me that the people /ho /or( the electrical system 46 hours a !ay !onHt respon! to problemsU
,hat pre#ents people from turning the lights right bac( onUM -mith tol! -ecurity%e/sDaily. MAn! attac(s on the financial system ha#e al/ays been a
nonJstarter for me. mean, Din 455OE the financial system attac(e! the ".-.^M Bf course, ;ust because political, technological an!
economic concerns ha#e pre#ente! cyber/ar thus far !oes not mean the situation cannot change. -ome
analysts belie#e that the cost of getting caught flatfoote! by a cyberattac( more than ;ustifies in#esting in
protection against future threats. M1he situation coul! change,M sai! -ami -ay!;ari, chairman of Professionals for Cyber Defense, a
organiAation forme! to Ma!#ocate, a!#ise an! a!#ance soun! cyber !efense policy for the "nite! -tates of America.M M'or e*ample, if /e en!e! up in a
shooting /ar /ith China, for /hate#er reason, they ha#e a capability to ta(e out our infrastructure,M -ay!;ari sai!. M,e !onHt /ant them to be able to !o
that. ,e !onHt /ant our enemies to e#en ha#e the potential to !o that, e#en if they currently ha#e no incenti#e to !o so.M An! then thereHs the issue of
terrorism. "n!eterre! by possible counterattac( an! unencumbere! by economic an! political ties, terrorist
groups ma(e the most feare! attac(ers in a hypothetical cyber/ar. MBne !ay /eHre going to /a(e up an! fin! that Al Sae!a or
one of these more e*treme groups /ill get this capability. 1hatHs /hat /orry about,M +e/is sai!. M1hey !onHt ha#e this capability no/.
1hereQs some in!ication that they (no/ about the blac( mar(et. &ut itHs li(e them trying to ac@uire any other
a!#ance! /eapon system.M &ut so far, there7s no e+i$ence that an! terrorist gro&p plans on
la&nching a c!%erattac# against the *.S. n fact, thereHs not really any e#i!ence that any country plans on
initiating cyber/ar against any other country in the near future. 'or the last 45 years, an! into the foreseeable
future, itHs remaine! all @uiet in the cyber front. M /oul! gi#e people /ho say thereHs an enormous cyber threat
the benefit of the !oubt. &ut H#e been hearing this for close to t/enty years no/,M sai! Martin +ibic(i, a senior policy
analyst in cyber issues for the RA%D Corporation in -anta Monica, Calif. M1/enty years after 2itty Ha/(, airplanes /ere an integral part of /arfare,M
+ibic(i sai!. M&y comparison, cyber/ar hasnHt a!#ance! nearly as @uic(ly.M
It-s all h!pe$ nonsense
)ie%owit; 11 3:43, $Matt +iebo/itA9 -ecurity %e/s Daily -taff ,riter, 7Cyber/ar B#erhype! an! "nli(ely, Report -ays,8
http9::///.securityne/s!aily.com:KKPJcyber/arJo#erhype!Jan!Junli(elyJreportJsays.html, AJ
1he threat of 7cyber/ar,8 an! in fact the term itself, is o+erh!pe$ an$ &nli#el! , accor!ing to a pair of &ritish researchers.
Contrary to popular beliefs spurre! by current fears, c!%ercriminals ha+e little power to carr! o&t large?scale
$e+astating attac#s, argue Dr. an &ro/n of the B*for! nternet nstitute an! Prof. Peter -ommer of the +on!on -chool of )conomics. 7f
you loo( at the /ay it is co#ere!, the computer scare story of the /ee(, you might get the sense that such a
!isaster is ;ust aroun! the corner,8 -ommer tol! the %e/ .or( 1imes. 7It is &nli#el! that there will e+er %e a tr&e
c!%erwar.8 1he report, release! Mon!ay, /as commissione! for the BrganiAation for )conomic Cooperation an! De#elopment. -ommer
!o/nplaye! recent security crises that ha#e gotten lots of press, inclu!ing the ,i(i+ea(s !iplomaticJcable release an! cyberattac(s on ,i(i+ea(sQ behalf
by the 7hac(ti#ist8 group Anonymous, /hich he li(ene! to Greenpeace. -ommer sai! future conflicts bet/een nations /ere boun!
to ha#e a cyberspace component, but they /ill be ;ust a part of the battle, not the entire /ar. n an inter#ie/ /ith the
&ritish computer magaAine PC Pro, &ro/n supporte! -ommerQs stance. 7&et/een /ellJe@uippe! states, li(e the ".-., China, ".2. an! so on, certain
cyber/eaponry /oul! li(ely be a part of any future /ar,8 sai! &ro/n. 7+ess capable states an! subJstate actors, li(e
terrorist groups an! in!i#i!ual hac(ers, will not %e a%le to ha+e an e.&i+alent $amaging effect &sing
c!%erattac#s.8 &ro/n sai! 7cyber/eaponry8 has probably alrea!y been by the ".-. !uring the in#asions of ra@ an! Afghanistan. 7,e !onQt
help oursel#es using [cyber/arQ to !escribe espionage or hac(ti#ists bloc(a!ing or !efacing of /ebsites, as
recently seen in reaction to ,i(i+ea(s,8 -ommer tol! 1he Guar!ian. 7%or is it helpful to group tri#ially a#oi!able
inci!ents li(e #iruses an! frau!s /ith !etermine! attempts to !isrupt national infrastructure.8 Bn the other si!e of
the coin, &ro/n an! -ommer belie#e online attac(s are not going to slo/ !o/n an! a!#ise! go#ernments to
secure their infrastructures to !efen! against targete! attac(s. 7Critical systems that are controlling po/er
gri!s I they shoul! not be connecte! to the nternet at all. 1hey really are running a great ris( by !oing that,8
&ro/n tol! PC Pro. He argue! that systems that control the po/er, /ater an! telecommunication gri!s shoul! be set up to
ensure that soft/are is (ept up to !ate an! that if a system fails, there is a bac(up that can imme!iately ta(e its
place. n a relate! !e#elopment, a former Pentagon official on 1ues!ay, spea(ing at the &lac( Hat D.C. hac(ersQ conference, calle! for the creation of a
7s(un( /or(s,8 a loosely organiAe! group of e*perts from the technological an! political fiel!s. 7,e nee! to bring policyma(ers li(e me an! techies li(e
you together in a /on(Jgee( coalition,8 sai! 'ran(lin 2ramer, former Assistant -ecretary of Defense for nternational -ecurity Affairs un!er Presi!ent
Clinton, !uring his (eynote a!!ress to the assemble! hac(ers.
More e+i$ence
Fo2 11 P:4, $-tuart 'o*9 Assistant )!itor, nno#ation %e/s Daily, 7Cyber/ar9 Definition, Hype W Reality,8 http9::///.securityne/s!aily.com:O4OJ
cyber/arJ!efinitionJcyberJ/ar.html, AJ
.et !espite /orrying military thin(ers for o#er 45 years, c!%erwar remains a rarel! practice$ poorl! $efine$ an$
wi$el! mis&n$erstoo$ form of conflict. "nli(e con#entional /arfare, the ability to cause !estruction /ith nothing
more than 3Hs an! 5Hs remains beyon! the reach of most countries, an! outsi!e the interest of many more. 1here are more
countries that possess nuclear /eapons than there are that ha#e the robust offensi#e cyber/ar capabilities
nee!e! to cause serious harm, e#en though cyberattac(s re@uire far less technical e*pertise an! financial in#estment than atomic bombs. )#en among
e*perts, the +er! $efinition of c!%erwar +aries wi$el! . Richar! Clar(e, the former special a!#isor to the presi!ent on
cybersecurity, has broa!ly claime! that any attempt to penetrate a nationHs computer systems constitutes cyber/ar. &ut
Ho/ar! -chmi!t, the current cybersecurity cAar, has gone as far as saying that cyber/ar !oes not e*ist 0 since
!igital attac(s fall short of any reasonable !efinition of /ar. MCyber/ar has to meet the same threshol! /eH!
hol! any other /ar to,M sai! James +e/is, senior fello/ an! !irector of technology an! public policy at the Center for -trategic an! nternational
-tu!ies in ,ashington, D.C. M-o if someone sprayJpainte! a go#ernment buil!ing /ith graffiti, /e /oul!nHt call that an attac(. An! if someone is caught
spying, that isnHt /ar.M M1here has to be physical !estruction, an! there ha#e to be casualties,M +e/is a!!e!. Mf there arenHt, it
isnHt an attac(, an! it isnHt /ar.M 1his !isagreement o#er /hat !oes or !oes not constitute cyber/ar stems in part from
the ambiguous policies of the countries that practice it. &y (eeping the line bet/een cyberespionage an!
cyber/arfare some/hat fuAAy, countries preser#e their ability to ;ustify retaliation at the time of their choosing
0 /hile simultaneously a#oi!ing any rigi! commitments that coul! escalate a conflict into something more
!angerous.
No impact
Fo2 11 P:4, $-tuart 'o*9 Assistant )!itor, nno#ation %e/s Daily, 7,hat Cyber/ar ,oul! +oo( +i(e,8 http9::///.securityne/s!aily.com:O4<J/hatJ
cyber/arJ/oul!Jloo(Jli(eJcyberJ/arJattac(Jscenario.html, AJ
Perhaps the most stri(ing feature of cyber/ar is how $i+orce$ it is from people7s e+er!$a! li+es . An attac(
that shuts off a po/er plant, !isables a military comman! center or alters sensiti#e financial !ata coul! #ery
/ell go unnotice! by most Americans. )#en if you /ere to notice a change, it /oul! be in!istinguishable from
the regular systemic failures that lea! to blac(outs or ban(ing trouble. 1hatHs because of the t/o possible fla#ors of
cyber/ar, one /oul! occur alongsi!e con#entional hostilities, ma(ing it simply M/ar,M an! the other /oul!
happen so subtly that e#en its #ictims might ta(e some time to !isco#er it. -trategic cyber/ar, consi!ere! by most as a
theoretical acti#ity, /oul! occur in!epen!ently of other military hostilities an! target #ital infrastructure such as a countryHs
electrical gri!s an! financial systems. n practice, strategic cyber/ar /oul! probably fall far short of the $ooms$a!
scenarios that en+ision complete societal collapse in the absence of computerJcontrolle! ser#ices . An!
tactical cyber/ar /oul! not constitute a ne/ form of attac(, but /oul! instea! merely augment the electronic
/arfare alrea!y practice! by mo!ern militaries. M1hey /oul! try to get into our infrastructure, but they /oul!
only succee! in scattere! /ays. ,e might not e#en notice,M sai! Martin +ibic(i, a senior policy analyst in cyber issues for the RA%D
Corporation in -anta Monica, Calif. MDDB- D!istribute! !enialJofJser#iceE attac(s D/oul! occurE, almost certainly,M +ibic(i e*plaine!.
MAnother possible form of attac( /oul! be against the !omain naming ser#ice an! the routing of traffic, so the
nternet may not beha#e /ell for a /hile. M&ut if AmaAon.com !oesnHt loa!, or you !onHt ha#e cable access for four hours, thatHs not
the first time a cable company scre/e! up or a /ebsite /ent !o/n. -o you /onHt assume itHs cyber/ar.M
Tactical c!%erwar has $efinitel! occ&rre$ at least twice , an! possibly a number of times more . As of yet,
no country has launche! an attac( that /oul! @ualify as strategic cyber/ar. Ho/e#er, e#en if an attac(er /ere to
cause a /i!esprea! blac(out, the res&lts wo&l$n7t cripple the nation . MPeople shoul! /orry about this , an!
ta(e serious action, but they shoul!nHt /orry about some of these !ooms!ay scenarios,M &rito tol! -ecurity%e/sDaily. MThe!
sho&l$n7t worr! a%o&t some sort of c!%er Pearl >ar%or , /ith planes falling out of the s(y an! po/er
plants going !o/n all in the span of fifteen minutes.M M,eH#e ha! a couple of these (in!s of attac(s alrea!y, an!
most people !i!nHt notice them,M -mith a!!e!. M-o thatHs a !ifferent stan!ar! of /ar.M
DEM(C'ACI
A&thor In$ict
Io&r e+i$ence is circ&mstantial
4alt PP (-te#en M., Professor of Political -cience, Master of the -ocial -cience Collegiate Di#ision, "ni#ersity
of Chicago, January:'ebruary 3<<<, 7 %e#er -ay %e#er9 ,ishful 1hin(ing on Democracy an! ,ar,8 'oreign
Affairs, http9::///.foreignaffairs.com:articles:>6=63:stephenJmJ/alt:ne#erJsayJne#erJ/ishfulJthin(ingJonJ
!emocracyJan!J/ar, Hensel?
Critics of the !emocraticJpeace hypothesis ma(e t/o main counterarguments. 1heir first line of attac( hol!s that the apparent pacifism
bet/een !emocracies may be a statistical artifact9 because !emocracies ha#e been relati#ely rare throughout
history, the absence of /ars bet/een them may be !ue largely to chance. )#i!ence for a !emocratic peace also
!epen!s on the time perio!s one e*amines an! on ho/ one interprets bor!erline cases li(e the ,ar of 3O34 or
the American Ci#il ,ar. Critics also note that strong statistical support for the proposition is limite! to the perio! after
,orl! ,ar , /hen both the ".-.Jle! alliance system an! the -o#iet threat to ,estern )uropeHs !emocracies !iscourage! conflict bet/een
republics.
Doesn-t Sol+e 4ar
Democracies go to war , Israel an$ In$ia %oth pro+e
Shaw 55 (Martin, Professor of nternational Relations an! Politics, "ni#ersity of -usse*, 4555, 7Democracy
an! peace in the global re#olution,8 http9::///.susse*.ac.u(:"sers:hafaK:!emocracy.htm, Hensel?
n the global era, establishe! liberalJ!emocratic states !o not fight each other. &ut once again, it ob#ious that this is not simply
%eca&se the! are $emocracies, but because they are embe!!e! in the raft of common ,estern an! global
state institutions. n!ee! it is not ;ust liberal !emocracies /hich !o not fight each other9 the ma;or nonJ,estern states (Russia, China,
n!ia, &raAil, etc.?, /hether !emocratic or not, are not li(ely to fight /ith the !ominant ,estern po/ers. Butsi!e the
,estern core of global state po/er, ho/e#er, national centres are more /ea(ly integrate! /ith its institutional structures,
an! regional institutions /hich might inhibit local conflicts are much /ea(er than they are in the core. n the Col!
,ar era, interstate ri#alries bet/een ma;or regional po/ers J such as bet/een Russia an! China, n!ia an! Pa(istan an! China, n!onesia an! Malaysia,
ran an! ra@, srael an! the Arab states J le! to /ars an! bor!er inci!ents. ,hile the integrati#e ten!encies in the emerging global
polity, inclu!ing the !emocratisation tren!s, may increasingly inhibit /ars, it clearly remains possi%le that s&ch
interstate ri+alries will generate new wars . t is clear that !emocratisation in itself is not a guarantee of /arJ
a#oi!ance in such conficts. srael, the only internally !emocratic state in the Mi!!le )ast, has also been the most
belligerentR n!ian !emocracy has been @uite compatible /ith bellicosity to/ar!s Pa(istan. Democratic as /ell as
military go#ernments may see /ar, so long as it can be (ept limite! an! relati#ely costJfree, as a means of boosting popularity. 1hus .eltsinQs Russia
sought a military solution in the brea(a/ay republic of Chechnya, !espite the lessons of the lateJ-o#iet failure in Afghanistan. Bnly in !efeat !i! RussiaQs
/ea( !emocracy penalise the regime for the ne/ !isaster, an! then not !ecisi#ely.
Democrac! $oesn-t sol+e +iolence within states , empirics
Ferg&son 5D (%iall, +aurence A. 1isch Professor of History at Har#ar! "ni#ersity, senior fello/ at the
Hoo#er nstitution, -tanfor! "ni#ersity, 455=, The War of the World: Historys Age of Hatred, p. ***#iii,
Hensel?
Di! it matter ho/ states /ere go#erne!U t has become fashionable among political scientists to posit a correlation bet/een !emocracy an! peace, on the
groun! that !emocracies ten! not to go to /ar /ith one another. Bn that basis, of course, the longJrun rise of !emocracy !uring the t/entieth century
shoul! ha#e re!uce! the inci!ence of /ar. t may ha#e re!uce! the inci!ence of /ar bet/een statesR there is, ho/e#er, at least some e#i!ence
that /a#es of !emocratiAation in the 3<45s, 3<=5s, an! 3<O5s /ere follo/e! by increases in the number of ci#il
/ars an! /ars of secession. 1his brings us to a central point. 1o consi!er t/entiethJcentury conflict purely in terms of
/arfare bet/een states is to o#erloo( the importance of organiAe! #iolence within states . 1he most notorious
e*ample is, of course, the /ar /age! by the %aAis an! their collaborators against the Je/s, nearly si* million of
/hom perishe!. 1he %aAis simultaneously sought to annihilate a #ariety of other social groups !eeme! to be [un/orthy of lifeQ, notably mentally ill
an! homose*ual Germans, the social elite of occupie! Polan! an! the -inti an! Roma peoples. n all, more than three million people from these other
groups /ere mur!ere!. Prior to these e#ents, -talin ha! perpetrate! comparable acts of #iolence against national minorities
/ithin the -o#iet "nion as /ell as e*ecuting or incarcerating millions of Russians guilty or merely suspecte! of
political !issi!ence. Bf aroun! four million nonJRussians /ho /ere !eporte! to -iberia an! Central Asia, at least 3.= million are estimate! to ha#e
!ie! as a result of the har!ships inflicte! on them. A minimum estimate for the total #ictims of all political #iolence in the -o#iet "nion bet/een 3<4O
an! 3<>K is t/entyJone million. .et genoci!e pre!ate! totalitarianism. As /e shall see, the policies of force! resettlement an!
!eliberate mur!er !irecte! against Christian minorities in the last years of the Bttoman )mpire amounte! to
genoci!e accor!ing to the 3<6O !efinition of the term.
DISEASE

Alt Ca&se
4arming-s an alt ca&se to $isease
Morse 50 (-tephen, PhD, !irector of the Center for Public Health Prepare!ness, at the Mailman -chool of
Public Health of Columbia "ni#ersity, May 4556, 7)merging an! Reemerging nfectious Diseases9 A Global
Problem,8 http9::///.actionbioscience.org:ne/frontiers:morse.html, Hensel?
Morse9 thin( that global /arming is a concern in part because goo! science sho/s that increasing greenhouse gases, li(e
carbon !io*i!e, seem to ha#e the effect of lea!ing to /arming. At the same time, there is a lot of !iscussion about /hat e*actly the
scenario /ill be. 1he !iseases that occur, /here they occur, /hat impacts they ha#e, /ill be #ery !epen!ent on temperature changes
an! /here they occur. A temperature change of se#eral !egrees may ma(e temperate Aones more hospitable to
malaria, for e*ample. An!, actually, /e use! to ha#e malaria in many parts of the ".-. taly ha! malaria until after ,orl! ,ar , /hen it /as
era!icate!. &ut itQs ob#iously chilling to thin( of the possibility of tropical !iseases being intro!uce! or reintro!uce!
/ith much more serious effects into ne/ areas. At the same time, tropical areas may become less hospitable to some of the same
!iseases. tQs #ery har! to say e*actly ho/ things /ill be, but, generally, itQs of concern.
A&thor In$ict
The me$ia e2aggerates the ris# , $isease won-t ca&se e2tinction
)in$ 11 (Michael, Policy Director of the )conomic Gro/th Program at the %e/ America 'oun!ation,
March:April 4533, 7-o +ong, Chic(en +ittle,8 'oreign Policy,
http9::///.foreignpolicy.com:articles:4533:54:44:soFlongFchic(enFlittleUpageY5,>, Hensel?
1hereHs nothing li(e a goo! plague to get ;ournalists an! pun!its in a frenAy. Although the threat of global pan!emics is
real, itHs all too often e*aggerate!. n the last fe/ years, the /orl! has e*perience! t/o such pan!emics, the a#ian flu (H>%3? an!
s/ine flu (H3%3?. &oth fell far short of the apocalyptic #ision of a ne/ &lac( Death cutting huge s/aths of mortality /ith its
remorseless scythe. But of a global population of more than = billion people, O,P=O are estimate! to ha#e !ie! from s/ine flu, K5= from a#ian flu. An! yet
it /as not ;ust the &&C ominously informing us that Mthe !ea!ly s/ine flu V cannot be containe!.M +i(e /arnings
about the proliferation of nuclear /eapons, the goo! !one by mobiliAing people to a!!ress the problem must be /eighe!
against the !anger of apocalypse fatigue on the part of a public sub;ecte! to en!less Chic(en +ittle scares.
Doesn-t Sprea$EQill
Diseases %&rn o&t , no sprea$
Morse 50 (-tephen, PhD, !irector of the Center for Public Health Prepare!ness, at the Mailman -chool of
Public Health of Columbia "ni#ersity, May 4556, 7)merging an! Reemerging nfectious Diseases9 A Global
Problem,8 http9::///.actionbioscience.org:ne/frontiers:morse.html, Hensel?
Morse9 A pan!emic is a #ery big epi!emic. t re@uires a number of things. 1here are many infections that get intro!uce! from time to time in the
human population an!, li(e )bola, burn themsel#es out because they (ill too @uic(ly or they !onQt ha#e a /ay to get from
person to person. 1hey are a terrible trage!y, but also, in a sense, it is a luc(y thing that they !onQt ha#e an efficient means of
transmission. n some cases, /e may ina!#ertently create path/ays to allo/ transmission of infections that may be poorly transmissible, for
e*ample, sprea!ing HC through nee!le sharing, the bloo! supply, an!, of course, initially through the commercial se* tra!e. 1he !isease is not easily
transmitte!, but /e pro#i!e!, /ithout realiAing it, means for it to sprea!. t is no/ pan!emic in spite of its relati#ely inefficient transmission. ,e also get
complacent an! !o not ta(e steps to pre#ent its sprea!.
Satellites monitor en+ironmental factors , that pre+ents sprea$
4alter?'ange an$ <ohn 15 (Micah, Research Analyst for the -pace 'oun!ation $A%D Mariel, research
analyst for the -pace 'oun!ation, -eptember 3, 4535, 7Disease an! Pan!emic )arly ,arning,8 -pace
'oun!ation,
http9::///.spacefoun!ation.org:sites:!efault:files:!o/nloa!s:-olutionsFfromF-paceFDiseaseFan!FPan!e
micF)arlyF,arningF5.p!f, Hensel?
Remote sensing satellites cannot !irectly !etect !isease outbrea(s but they are able to !etect a /i!e range of en#ironmental
factors, such as groun! /ater, #egetation, or floo!ing. 3 &efore a mo!el can be !e#elope!, an association must be foun!
bet/een en#ironmental factors an! the ecology of the !isease agent or host. 1his is usually possible for #ectorJborne
!iseases, in /hich a thir! party, or #ector, is necessary to transmit the !isease. Malaria, /hich is sprea! by mos@uitoes,
pro#i!es a goo! e*ample. Mos@uitoes bree! in /ater, so they are often more pre#alent /hen there is a greater amount of surface /ater.
ncrease! amounts of surface /ater or rainfall, /hich can be !etecte! by remote sensing satellites, represent a possible pre!ictor for an outbrea( of
malaria in regions /here the !isease is (no/n to e*ist. 4 1hese mo!els are more effecti#e /hen they integrate other !ata sources
that help to i!entify multiple lin(s bet/een en#ironmental factors an! a !isease. n a!!ition, some mo!els
incorporate the biological process of susceptibility, e*posure, infection, an! reco#ery. 1his re@uires an un!erstan!ing of
/hat causes people to be particularly #ulnerable to a particular !isease, the /ays in /hich people come into contact /ith the !isease, the process by
/hich the infection affects the bo!y, an! the process of reco#ery. K t is also important for these mo!els to inclu!e information
about the region being stu!ie!, often referre! to as geospatial information. 'or e*ample, pre!ictions of areas at ris( of outbrea( shoul! ta(e
into account the population !ensity throughout the region. f an area li(ely to ha#e many mos@uitoes is also near a #illage, there is a higher ris( of a
malaria outbrea( than /oul! be the case for a #ery sparsely populate! area. Bnce these associations ha#e been i!entifie!, historical
!ata is use! to !emonstrate that there is a correlation bet/een the en#ironmental factors an! !isease
outbrea(s. n a!!ition to the satellite imagery an! population !ata, it is necessary to gather epi!emiological !ata, inclu!ing
information about /hen an! /here outbrea(s ha#e occurre! in the past, in or!er to #ali!ate the connection. 1his !ata can be !ifficult to ac@uire,
particularly for rural areas or in !e#eloping countries. &ecause of the /i!e range of en#ironmental factors that coul! affect the sprea! of !isease in
!ifferent areas, it is necessary to ha#e !ata representing as much of the area of interest as possible. 1his first step, /hich inclu!es i!entifying an!
#ali!ating lin(s bet/een !iseases an! en#ironmental factors, is usually carrie! out by researchers either in aca!emia or go#ernment. >
/&rno&t pre+ents sprea$
The M&ar$ian 59 (Da#e &irch 0 staff /riter, -eptember 46, 455K, 7-econ! sight,8
http9::///.guar!ian.co.u(:technology:455K:sep:4>:comment.comment, Hensel?
1he parallel /ith the natural /orl! is illustrati#e. 1a(e the case of e#eryoneHs fa#ourite e#il #irus, )bola. 1his is so #irulent that it (ills up to
<5L of infecte! hosts /ithin one to t/o /ee(s. 1here is no (no/n cure. -o ho/ come the entire population
hasnHt !roppe! !ea! from haemorrhaging, shoc( or renal failureU 1he MorganismM is ;ust too !ea!ly9 it (ills too
@uic(ly an! has too short an incubation perio!, so the pool of infecte! people !oesnHt gro/. n fact, it shrin(s
rather rapi!ly. Ha#ing terrible conse@uences !oesnHt ma(e a #irus successful. f a parasite (ills its hosts too
@uic(ly, then it !estroys its o/n ecosystem9 a lesson from nature here, surely. A cle#er #irus /oul! lea#e PCs largely unaffecte! through
its incubation perio!. &ut /hat if a /orm, #irus or tro;an horse /as create! by people /ho /ere really cle#erU ,hat (in! of things /oul! this eber/orm
!oU t is fun, if not irresponsible, to speculate.
M&ltiple meas&res pre+ent sprea$
Time 5P (Douglas A. Mcntyre 0 staff /riter, April 4P, 455<, 7-/ine 'lu "nli(ely to Affect the )conomy,8
http9::///.time.com:time:business:article:5,O><<,3O<65>4,55.html, Hensel?
-ince that pan!emic more than 65 years ago, there ha#e been no ma;or e#ents in#ol#ing the global sprea! of lethal flu
infections. 1here ha#e been cases of !angerous a#ian flu outbrea(s in Asia for a !eca!e /hich has cause! the !eaths of a small
number of people. -ince these flu infections ha#e not sprea! globally /arnings an! concerns about pan!emics ha#e not been much seen in the
me!ia. At the start of this /ee(en! ho/e#er the me!ia has been #ery in#ol#e! in transmitting the latest information from all the public health
organiAations an! specialists in !isease trac(ing. M,e are #ery, #ery concerne!,M ,orl! Health BrganiAation spo(esman 1homas Abraham sai!. M,e
ha#e /hat appears to be a no#el #irus an! it has sprea! from human to human ... tHs all han!s on !ec( at the moment.M 1/o critical factors shoul!
pre#ent the current outbrea( from sprea!ing much further. 1he first is the sophisticate! monitoring systems set up
by the CDC in the "nite! -tates, similar authorities in other countries, an! the ,HB on a global basis. 1he -AR- outbrea( in 4554
en!e! up (illing less than O55 people, in part because of a near shut!o/n of /orl! tra#el an! minuteJbyJminute
trac(ing of the progress of the !isease aroun! the /orl!. -econ!ly, there are se#eral theories about /hy flu #iruses
!o not sprea! /ith the rapi!ity an! scale that they once !i!. Bne of the probable reasons is is that flu #accines
!iminish the sprea! of the !isease in general by cutting !o/n on the sprea! of specific strains. 1his e#en e*ten!s
to the #accinations of animals that are the primary carriers of the infectious #iruses. n a!!ition, the CDC sai! that t/o ma;or flu
!rugs, 1amiflu an! RelenAa, appear li(ely to !iminish the se#erity of symptoms for the ne/ strain, if ta(en in the first 6OJ
hours of this -/ine flu infection. 1hat may be one of the reasons that public health officials, epi!emiologists, an! infectious
!isease specialists ha#e in!icate! that people shoul! not be o#erly concerne!. Bne e*pert tol! %PR, M,eH#e seen s/ine
influenAa in humans o#er the past se#eral years, an! in most cases, itHs come from !irect pig contact. 1his seems to be !ifferent,M sai! Dr. Arnol! Monto,
from the "ni#ersity of Michigan. M thin( /e nee! to be careful an! not apprehensi#e, but certainly paying attention to ne/ !e#elopments as they
procee!.M 1he o!!s that tens of thousan!s of people /ill !ie from the flu are lo/. A!#ances in me!icine an! public
health policy ha#e ma!e a big !ifference in the ability to monitor emerging serious illnesses. 1he fact that the
ne/ !isease seems not to be terribly #irulent outsi!e of Me*ico is another factor that supports the opinion that
this /ill not be a ma;or epi!emic. Ho/e#er, in the min!s of some analysts, the /orl! can still loo( for/ar! to trillions of !ollars in financial
losses an! an economic !epression.
Diseases e+ol+e to %e less $angero&s , no impact
Achen%ach 59 (Joel, ,ashington Post staff /riter, %o#ember 455K, 7Bur 'rien!, the Plague,8 %ational
Geographic, http9::ngm.nationalgeographic.com:ngm:5K33:resourcesF/ho.html, Hensel?
,hene#er a ne/ !isease appears some/here on our planet, e*perts in#ariably pop up on 1C /ith gra#e
summations of the problem, usually along the lines of, M,eHre in a /ar against the microbesMIpause for !ramatic effect IMan! the microbes
are /inning.M ,ar, ho/e#er, is a ri!iculously o#eruse! metaphor an! probably shoul! be bombe! bac( to the -tone Age. Paul )/al!, a biologist at the
"ni#ersity of +ouis#ille, a!#ocates a !ifferent approach to lethal microbes. 'orget trying to obliterate them, he says, an! focus
instea! on ho/ they coJe#ol#e /ith humans. Ma(e them mutate in the right !irection. Get the po/ers of e#olution
on our si!e. Disease organisms can, in fact, %ecome less +ir&lent o+er time. ,hen it /as first recogniAe! in )urope
aroun! 36<>, syphilis (ille! its human hosts /ithin months. 1he @uic( progression of the !iseaseIfrom infection to !eathI
limite! the ability of syphilis to sprea!. -o a ne/ form e#ol#e!, one that ga#e carriers years to infect others. 'or the same reason, the
common col! has become less !angerous. Mil!er strains of the #irusIsprea! by people out an! about, touching things, an!
sha(ing han!sIha#e an e#olutionary a!#antage o#er more !ebilitating strains. .ou canHt sprea! a col! #ery easily if
youHre incapable of rolling out of be!.
EC(N(MI
Alt Ca&se , Cre$it /&st
Econ collapse ine+ita%le , mass cre$it %&st coming
/owman 11 0 hea! of research at A!am -mith nstitute (-am, O:4K:33 7Mises on the causes of the crisis8 a
http9::///.a!amsmith.org:blog:ta*Jan!Jeconomy:misesJonJtheJcausesJofJtheJcrisisb::A&?
1he e*citement about toppling Col Ga!affi is un!erstan!able, but a !istraction from our real troubles. ha#e significant reser#ations about the
inter#ention, but he /as a brute an! itHs goo! to see the en! of him. n the long run, though, the ongoing financial crisis /ill probably pro#e to be much
more important to our li#es. ,e shoul!nHt lose sight of it. ,e may be witnessing the start of a $o&%le?$ip recession , or
e#en the en! of the %eginning of another Mreat Depression . ,hat happene!U 1he Mises nstitute blog has poste! a
fabulous speech by +u!/ig #on Mises this /ee(. Gi#en in 3<K3, Mises spo(e on M1he Causes of the )conomic CrisisM (PD', pp. 3>>03O4?. 1hen, as
no/, a secon$ar! economic crash p&she$ the worl$ $eeper into recession . t was a+oi$a%le , but
not %! the time it %ecame apparent to the /orl! . -ometimes you cannot un!o the mista(es of the past. Massi+e
malin+estments ca&se$ %! central %an#s F&n$er%i$$ing interest rates M (in MisesHs terms? can only
be un!one through %&siness fail&re , ho/e#er painful. &ailing businesses out simply prolongs the pain. As usual, Mises is on the
money here9 1he se+ere con+&lsions of the econom! are the ine+ita%le result of policies /hich hamper
mar(et acti#ity, the regulator of capitalistic pro!uction. f e#erything possible is !one to pre#ent the mar(et from fulfilling its
function of bringing supply an! !eman! into balance, it shoul! come as no surprise that a serious !isproportionality bet/een supply
an! !eman! persists, that commo$ities remain &nsol$ factories stan$ i$le man! millions are
&nemplo!e$ !estitution an! misery are gro/ing an! that finally, in the /a(e of all these, $estr&cti+e
ra$icalism is rampant in politics. 1he perio!ically returning crises of cyclical changes in business con!itions are the effect of
attempts, un!erta(en repeate!ly, to un!erbi! the interest rates /hich !e#elop on the unhampere! mar(et. 1hese attempts to un!erbi! unhampere!
mar(et interest rates are ma!e through the inter#ention of ban(ing policyIby cre!it e*pansion through the a!!itional creation of unco#ere! notes an!
chec(ing !epositsIin or!er to bring about a boom. 1he crisis un!er /hich /e are no/ suffering is of this type, too. Ho/e#er, it goes beyon! the typical
business cycle !epression, not only in scale but also in characterIbecause the inter#entions /ith mar(et processes /hich e#o(e! the crisis /ere not
limite! only to influencing the rate of interest. 1he inter#entions ha#e !irectly affecte! /age rates an! commo!ity prices, too. . . . All attempts to
emerge from the crisis by ne/ inter#entionist measures are completely misgui!e!. 1here is only one /ay out of the crisis9
'orgo e#ery attempt to pre#ent the impact of mar(et prices on pro!uction. Gi#e up the pursuit of policies /hich see( to establish interest rates, /age
rates an! commo!ity prices !ifferent from those the mar(et in!icates. 1his may contra!ict the pre#ailing #ie/. t certainly is not popular. 1o!ay all
go#ernments an! political parties ha#e full confi!ence in inter#entionism an! it is not li(ely that they /ill
aban!on their program. Ho/e#er, it is perhaps not too optimistic to assume that those go#ernments an! parties /hose policies ha#e le! to this
crisis /ill some !ay !isappear from the stage an! ma(e /ay for men /hose economic program lea!s, not to !estruction an! chaos, but to economic
!e#elopment an! progress. 1reating too much !ebt /ith more !ebt or gi#ing rec(less ban(s a bailout is economic homeopathy. 1hereHs no postJhoc cure
to longJterm foolishness. )#entually, you ha#e to pay the piper, an! resol#e to ta(e the steps necessary to a#oi! that situation in future. 1he only
solution to our current crisis is to /eather the storm. 1here may be certain types of monetary central planning that are less ba! than
others, but all are still leastJba! /ays of !oing something the go#ernment shoul! ha#e no in#ol#ement in. f /eHre serious about a#oi!ing a repeat in a
couple of years, /e nee! to start thin(ing seriously about ho/ to abolish central ban(s. t isnHt the symptoms /e nee! to fight, itHs the !isease.
Alt Ca&se , De%t
Econom! collapse ine+ita%le? $e%t is too massi+e for a reco+er!
4illiams 6E=P 0 Professor of economics at George Mason "ni#ersity (,alter )., 7Bur %ationQs 'uture8 >:4<:34
http9::le/roc(/ell.com:/illiamsJ/:/J/illiams34=.html::A&?
Bur nation is rapi$l! approaching a point from which there7s little chance to a+oi$ a financial
collapse. 1he heart of our problem can be seen as a trage$! of the commons . 1hatHs a set of circumstances /hen
something is commonly o/ne! an! in!i#i!uals acting rationally in their o/n selfJinterest pro!uce a set of results thatHs inimical to e#eryoneHs longJterm
interest. +etHs loo( at an e*ample of the trage!y of the commons phenomenon an! then apply it to our national problem. magine there are 355
cattlemen all ha#ing an e@ual right to graAe their her!s on 3,555 acres of commonly o/ne! grasslan!. 1he rational selfJintereste! response of each
cattleman is to ha#e the largest her! that he can affor!. )ach cattleman pursing similar selfJinterests /ill pro!uce results not in any of the cattlemenHs
longJterm interest 0 o#ergraAing, soil erosion an! !estruction of the lan!Hs usefulness. )#en if they all recogniAe the !angers, !oes it pay for any one
cattleman to cut the siAe of his her!U 1he short ans/er is no because he /oul! bear the cost of ha#ing a smaller her! /hile the other cattlemen gain at his
e*pense. n the long term, they all lose because the lan! /ill be o#ergraAe! an! ma!e useless. ,e can thin( of the fe!e ral %&$get as a
commons to which each of o&r 696 congressmen an$ the presi$ent ha+e access . +i(e the
cattlemen, each congressman an! the presi!ent /ant to get as much out of the fe!eral bu!get as possible for
their constituents. Political s&ccess $epen$s &pon F%ringing home the %acon.F -pen!ing is popular, but ta*es
to finance the spen!ing are not. 1he ten!ency is for spen!ing to rise an! its financing to be conceale! through
borro/ing an! inflation. Does it pay for an in!i#i!ual congressman to say, M1his spen!ing is unconstitutional
an! ruining our nation, an! Hll ha#e no part of itR /ill refuse a T>55 million fe!eral grant to my congressional
!istrictMU 1he ans/er is no because he /oul! gain little or nothing, plus the fe!eral bu!get /oul!nHt be re!uce! by T>55 million. Bther congressmen
/oul! benefit by ha#ing T>55 million more for their !istricts. ,hat about the constituents of a principle! congressmanU f their congressman refuses
unconstitutional spen!ing, it !oesnHt mean that they pay lo/er fe!eral income ta*es. All that it means is constituents of some other congressmen get the
money /hile the nation spirals to/ar! financial ruin, an! they /oul!nHt be spare! from that ruin because their congressman refuse! to participate in
unconstitutional spen!ing. ,hat /eHre /itnessing in Greece, taly, relan!, Portugal an! other parts of )urope is a
!irect result of their massi#e spen!ing to accommo!ate the /elfare state. A greater number of people are li#ing
off go#ernment /elfare programs than are paying ta*es. Go#ernment !ebt in Greece is 3=5 percent of gross !omestic pro!uct. 1he
other percentages of GDP are 345 in taly, 356 in relan! an! 35= in Portugal. As a result of this !ebt an! the improbability of their e#er paying it, their
cre!it ratings either ha#e reache! or are close to reaching ;un( bon! status. >ere7s the .&estion for &sH Is the *.S. mo+ing in
a $irection towar$ or awa! from the tro&%le$ E* nationsT It t&rns o&t that o&r national $e%t
which was 96 percent of MDP $&ring the 1PL5s is now 15D percent of MDP a le#el not seen since ,orl! ,ar
Hs 344 percent. 1hat !ebt, plus our more than T355 trillion in unfun!e! liabilities, has le! -tan!ar! W PoorHs to !o/ngra!e our cre!it rating from AAA
to AAZ, an! the agency is (eeping the outloo( at Mnegati#eM as a result of its ha#ing little confi!ence that Congress /ill ta(e on the politically sensiti#e ;ob
of tac(ling the same type of entitlement that has turne! )urope into a bas(et case. am all too afrai! that &en;amin 'ran(lin correctly sa/ our nationHs
!estiny /hen he sai!, M,hen the people fin! that they can #ote themsel#es money, that /ill heral! the en! of the republic.M
Alt Ca&se , E&ro;one
Alt ca&se ? E&ro;one collapse ine+ita%le
T/T DE=1 , )nglish %e/spaper publishe! since 3<P= (1he &usiness 1imes, =:43:34, 71he )uroAone nee!s "rgent Action 0 Again8, 1he &usiness
1imes, +e*is?::&/ang
1H) t/ists an! turns in the euroAone are becoming /earily familiar. At first, Greece !i!nHt nee! any help from strangersR then
it nee!e! ;ust a fe/ billion euros of spare change to pay the bills an! (eep the lights on until fic(le bon! in#estors came to their senses an! began len!ing
it money again. 1hat turne! out to be /il!ly o#erJoptimisticR Greece can no longer preten! that anything short of a fullJblo/n
rescue is nee!e!. %o/ itHs -painHs turn to insist that it !oesnHt nee! a bailout, ;ust a loan of a hun!re! billion euros or so to shore
up its ban(s /hile it restructures its finances an! economy J but nobo!y belie#es that any longer. -oaring bon!
yiel!s suggest that both -pain an! taly are at ris( of losing access to the bon! mar(ets soon, !espite the latest attempts by
)uropean lea!ers to pre#ent the crisis from sprea!ing beyon! Greece. Bn -atur!ay, euroAone finance ministers agree! to len!
-pain as much as 355 billion euros to prop up its ban(s, /hich face the t/in !angers of mounting ba! !ebts an! !/in!ling !eposits. An! on -un!ay,
Gree( #oters electe! ne/ lea!ers /illing to accept harsh public spen!ing cuts an! s/eeping changes to its economy in e*change for financial ai!. 1he
#ery ne*t !ay, the yiel! on 35Jyear -panish go#ernment bon!s rose to more than P per cent, /hile the 35Jyear talian go#ernment bon! yiel! toppe! =
per cent. As their cost of borro/ing spirals higher, -pain an! taly J respecti#ely the fourth an! thir! biggest economies in the
euroAone J are trappe! in a #icious circle of rising !ebt an! falling cre!itJ/orthiness that ma(es it increasingly
e*pensi#e an! !ifficult for them to roll o#er their !ebt. 1his threatens to crush their economies, unless
outsi!ers come to their rescue. At 3.5P trillion euros, -painHs economic output is nearly fi#e times that of Greece, base! on 4533 economic
!ata compile! by the nternational Monetary 'un!R talyHs economy is bigger yet, at 3.>O trillion euros. 1ogether, -pain an! taly account for 4O per cent
of the euroAoneHs <.64JtrillionJeuro economy. The collapse of %oth economies wo&l$ %e $isastro&s for E&rope ?
an$ the rest of the worl$. 1hat !oesnHt seem lost on the rest of )uropeHs lea!ers. Germany has been hea#ily criticise! for
opposing more !rastic measures to contain the crisis, such as selling bon!s ;ointly bac(e! by all 3P euroAone member countries to
help its /ea(er members. &ut German Chancellor Angela Mer(el is un!er se#ere political pressure at home from German #oters not to spen! their
money rescuing /hat they see as profligate neighbours. As the Gree(s sho/e! /hen they force! out former prime minister George Papan!reou late last
year, popular sentiment cannot be easily !ismisse!. -till, ne/s reports from the GJ45 summit in Me*ico yester!ay suggeste! that Germany may soon
soften its stance, allo/ing its hea#ily in!ebte! neighbours to borro/ !irectly from the euroAoneHs bailout fun!. &y fits
an! starts, )uropeHs lea!ers are again struggling to contain the crisis. &efore long, it may be too late.
Empirics
P9 crises pro+e no war
Miller U55 (Morris, )conomist, A!;unct Professor in the 'aculty of A!ministration 0 "ni#ersity of Btta/a, 'ormer )*ecuti#e Director an! -enior
)conomist 0 ,orl! &an(, 7Po#erty as a Cause of ,arsU8, nter!isciplinary -cience Re#ie/s, ,inter, p. 4PK?
1he @uestion may be reformulate!. Do wars spring from a popular reaction to a su!!en economic crisis that
e*acerbates po#erty an! gro/ing !isparities in /ealth an! incomesU Perhaps one coul! argue, as some scholars !o, that it is some !ramatic e#ent or
se@uence of such e#ents lea!ing to the e*acerbation of po#erty that, in turn, lea!s to this !eplorable !enouement. 1his e*ogenous factor might act as a
catalyst for a #iolent reaction on the part of the people or on the part of the political lea!ership /ho /oul! then possibly be tempte! to see( a !i#ersion
by fin!ing or, if nee! be, fabricating an enemy an! setting in train the process lea!ing to /ar. Accor!ing to a stu!y un!erta(en by Min*in
Pei an! Ariel A!esni( of the Carnegie )n!o/ment for nternational Peace, there /oul! not appear to be any
merit in this hypothesis . After stu!ying ninetyJthree episo!es of economic crisi s in t/entyJt/o countries in +atin America
an! Asia in the years since the -econ! ,orl! ,ar the! concl&$e$ that93< Much of the con+entional wis$om about the political
impact of economic crises ma! %e wrong ... The se+erit! of economic crisis 0 as measure! in terms of inflation an! negati#e
gro/th J %ore no relationship to the collapse of regimes ... (or, in !emocratic states, rarely? to an o&t%rea# of +iolence ... n
the cases of !ictatorships an! semi!emocracies, the ruling elites respon!e! to crises by increasing repression (thereby using one form of #iolence to
abort another?.
No 4ar
No impact? econ $ecline $oesn-t ca&se war
/arnett UP (1homas P.M. &arnett, senior managing !irector of )nterra -olutions ++C, 71he %e/ Rules9 -ecurity Remains -table Ami! 'inancial
Crisis,8 O:4>:455<?
,hen the global financial crisis struc( roughly a year ago, the blogosphere /as ablaAe /ith all sorts of scary
pre!ictions of, an! commentary regar!ing, ensuing conflict an! /ars JJ a rerun of the Great Depression lea!ing to /orl! /ar,
as it /ere. %o/, as global economic ne/s brightens an! reco#ery JJ surprisingly le! by China an! emerging mar(ets JJ is the tal( of the !ay, itHs
interesting to loo( bac( o#er the past year an! realiAe ho/ globaliAationHs first tr&l! worl$wi$e recession has ha! #irtually no
impact /hatsoe#er on the international security lan$scape . %one of the more than threeJ!oAen ongoing conflicts
liste! by Global-ecurity.org can be clearly attribute! to the global recession. n!ee!, the last ne/ entry (ci#il conflict bet/een Hamas
an! 'atah in the Palestine? pre!ates the economic crisis by a year, an! three @uarters of the chronic struggles began in the last century. Ditto for the 3>
lo/Jintensity conflicts liste! by ,i(ipe!ia (/here the latest entry is the Me*ican M!rug /arM begun in 455=?. Certainly, the RussiaJGeorgia conflict last
August /as specifically time!, but by most accounts the opening ceremony of the &ei;ing Blympics /as the most important e*ternal trigger (follo/e! by
the ".-. presi!ential campaign? for that su!!en spi(e in an almost t/oJ!eca!e long struggle bet/een Georgia an! its t/o brea(a/ay regions. +oo(ing
o#er the #arious !atabases, then, /e see a most familiar picture9 the usual mi* of ci#il conflicts, insurgencies, an! liberationJtheme! terrorist
mo#ements. &esi!es the recent RussiaJGeorgia !ustJup, the only t/o potential stateJonJstate /ars (%orth #. -outh 2orea, srael #. ran? are both tie! to
one si!e ac@uiring a nuclear /eapon capacity JJ a process /holly unrelate! to global economic tren!s. An! /ith the "nite! -tates effecti#ely
tie! !o/n by its t/o ongoing ma;or inter#entions (ra@ an! AfghanistanJblee!ingJintoJPa(istan?, our in#ol#ement
else/here aroun! the planet has been @uite mo!est, both lea!ing up to an! follo/ing the onset of the economic crisis9 e.g., the usual
counterJ!rug efforts in +atin America, the usual military e*ercises /ith allies across Asia, mi*ing it up /ith pirates off -omaliaHs coast?. )#ery/here else
/e fin! serious instability /e pretty much let it burn, occasionally pressing the Chinese JJ unsuccessfully JJ to !o something. Bur ne/ Africa Comman!,
for e*ample, hasnHt le! us to anything beyon! a!#ising an! training local forces. -o, to sum up9 $ %o significant uptic( in mass #iolence or unrest
(remember the smattering of urban riots last year in places li(e Greece, Mol!o#a an! +at#iaU?R $ 1he usual fre@uency maintaine! in ci#il conflicts (in all
the usual places?R $ %ot a single stateJonJstate /ar !irectly cause! (an! no greatJpo/erJonJgreatJpo/er crises e#en triggere!?R $ %o great impro#ement
or !isruption in greatJpo/er cooperation regar!ing the emergence of ne/ nuclear po/ers (!espite all that !iplomacy?R $ A mo!est scaling bac( of
international policing efforts by the systemHs ac(no/le!ge! +e#iathan po/er (ine#itable gi#en the strain?R an! $ %o serious efforts by any rising great
po/er to challenge that +e#iathan or supplant its role. (1he /orst things /e can cite are Mosco/Hs occasional !eployments of strategic assets to the
,estern hemisphere an! its /ea( efforts to outbi! the "nite! -tates on basing rights in 2yrgyAstanR but the best inclu!e China an! n!ia stepping up
their ai! an! in#estments in Afghanistan an! ra@.? -ure, /eH#e finally seen global !efense spen!ing surpass the pre#ious /orl!
recor! set in the late 3<O5s, but e#en thatHs li(ely to /ane gi#en the stress on public bu!gets create! by all this
unprece!ente! MstimulusM spen!ing. f anything, the frien!ly cooperation on such stimulus pac(aging /as the
most notable greatJpo/er !ynamic cause! by the crisis. Can /e say that the /orl! has suffere! a !istinct shift to political ra!icalism
as a result of the economic crisisU n!ee!, no. 1he /orl!Hs ma;or economies remain go#erne! by centerJleft or centerJright
political factions that remain !eci!e!ly frien!ly to both mar(ets an! tra!e. n the short run, there /ere attempts
across the boar! to insulate economies from imme!iate !amage (in effect, as much protectionism as allo/e! un!er current tra!e
rules?, but there /as no great sli!e into Mtra!e /ars.M nstea!, the ,orl! 1ra!e BrganiAation is functioning as it /as
!esigne! to function, an! regional efforts to/ar! freeJtra!e agreements ha#e not slo/e!. Can /e say slamic ra!icalism
/as inflame! by the economic crisisU f it /as, that shift /as clearly o#er/helme! by the slamic /orl!Hs gro/ing !isenchantment /ith the brutality
!isplaye! by #iolent e*tremist groups such as alJSai!a. An! loo(ing for/ar!, austere economic times are ;ust as li(ely to bree! connecting
e#angelicalism as !isconnecting fun!amentalism. At the en! of the !ay, the economic crisis !i! not pro#e to be sufficiently frightening to pro#o(e ma;or
economies into establishing global regulatory schemes, e#en as it has spar(e! a spirite! JJ an! much nee!e!, as argue! last /ee( JJ !iscussion of the
continuing #iability of the ".-. !ollar as the /orl!Hs primary reser#e currency. %aturally, plenty of e*perts an! pun!its ha#e attache! great significance to
this !ebate, seeing in it the beginning of Meconomic /arfareM an! the li(e bet/een Mfa!ingM America an! MrisingM China. An! yet, in a /orl! of
globally integrate! pro!uction chains an! interconnecte! financial mar(ets, such M!i#erging interestsM har!ly
constitute signposts for /ars up ahea!. 'ran(ly, !onHt /elcome a /orl! in /hich AmericaHs fiscal profligacy goes un!iscipline!, so bring it
on JJ please^ A!! it all up an! itHs fair to say that this global financial crisis has pro#en the great resilience of AmericaHs postJ
,orl! ,ar international liberal tra!e or!er.
Co&ntries t&rn inwar$ , no fighting
+loy! $eMa&se !irector of 1he nstitute for Psychohistory, 7%uclear ,ar as an AntiJ-e*ual Group 'antasy8 "p!ate! December 3O
th
=55=
http9::///.geocities.com:(i!history:;a:nucse*.htm
1he nation Mturns in/ar!M !uring this !epresse! phase of the c!cle. )mpirical stu!ies ha+e clearly
!emonstrate $ that ma8or economic !o/ns/ings are accompanie! by Mintro#erte!M foreign policy moo!s,
characteriAe! by fe/er arme! e*pe!itions less interest in foreign affairs in the speeches of lea$ers
re!uce! military e*pen!itures, etc . (2lingberg, 3<>4R Holmes, 3<O>?. Just as !epresse! people e*perience little conscious rageJJfeeling M
!eser#e to be (ille!M rather than M /ant to (ill othersM ('enichel, 3<6>, p. K<K?J? interest in military a!#entures $&ring the
$epresse$ phase wanes arms e2pe$it&res !ecrease an! peace treaties multiply .
No ca&sal relationship , ignores other +aria%les
%iall Ferg&son (+aurence A. 1isch Professor of History at Har#ar! "ni#ersity an! a -enior 'ello/ at the Hoo#er nstitution at -tanfor! "ni#ersity?
=55D 'oreign Affairs, -eptember:Bctober, Col. O>, ssue >
Nor can economic crises e2plain the %loo$she$. 4hat ma! %e the most familiar causal chain in
mo$ern historiograph! lin(s the Mreat Depression to the rise of fascism an$ the outbrea( of 4orl$
,ar II. /&t that simple story lea#es too much out . %aAi Merman! starte$ the war in )urope only after its
econom! ha$ reco+ere$. %ot all the countries affecte! %! the Mreat Depression /ere ta(en o#er by
fascist regimes, nor !i! all such regimes start /ars of aggression. n fact, no general relationship bet/een
economics an! conflict is !iscernible for the century as a /hole. -ome /ars came after perio!s of gro/th,
others /ere the causes rather than the conse@uences of economic catastrophe an$ some se#ere economic
crises /ere not follo/e! by /ars .
Econ collapse $oesn-t ca&se war
/a;;i an$ /lattman 11 (-amuel &aAAi (Department of )conomics at "ni#ersity of California -an Diego? an! Christopher &lattman
(assistant professor of political science an! economics at .ale "ni#ersity? %o#ember 4533 7)conomic -hoc(s an! Conflict9 1he (Absence ofU? )#i!ence
from Commo!ity Prices8 http9::///.chrisblattman.com:!ocuments:research:4533.)conomic-hoc(sAn!Conflict.p!fU<!Pb!6?
C. Discussion an! conclusions A. mplications for our theories of political instability an! conflict 1he state is not a priAeUI,arlor! politics an! the state
priAe logic lie at the center of the most influential mo!els of conflict, state !e#elopment, an! political transitions in economics an! political science. .et
/e see no e#i!ence for this i!ea in economic shoc(s, e#en /hen loo(ing at the frien!liest cases9 fragile an!
unconstraine! states !ominate! by e*tracti#e commo!ity re#enues. n!ee!, /e see the opposite correlation9 if
anything, higher rents from commo!ity prices /ea(ly 44 lo/er the ris( an! length of conflict. Perhaps shoc(s are the
/rong test. -toc(s of resources coul! matter more than price shoc(s (especially if shoc(s are transitory?. &ut combine! /ith emerging e#i!ence that /ar
onset is no more li(ely e#en /ith rapi! increases in (no/n oil reser#es (Humphreys 455>R Cotet an! 1sui 4535? /e regar! the state priAe logic of /ar
/ith s(epticism.3P Bur main political economy mo!els may nee! a ne/ engine. %aturally, an absence of e#i!ence cannot be ta(en
for e#i!ence of absence. Many of our conflict onset an! en!ing results inclu!e siAeable positi#e an! negati#e effects.3O )#en so, commo!ity price shoc(s
are highly influential in income an! shoul! pro#i!e a rich source of i!entifiable #ariation in instability. t is !ifficult to fin! a betterJmeasure!, more
abun!ant, an! plausibly e*ogenous in!epen!ent #ariable than price #olatility. Moreo#er, other timeJ#arying #ariables, li(e rainfall an!
foreign ai!, e*hibit robust correlations /ith conflict in spite of suffering similar empirical !ra/bac(s an!
generally smaller sample siAes (Miguel et al. 4556R %ielsen et al. 4533?. 1hus /e ta(e the absence of e#i!ence seriously. Do
resource re#enues !ri#e state capacityUI-tate priAe mo!els assume that rising re#enues raise the #alue of the capturing the state, but ha#e ignore! or
!o/nplaye! the effect of re#enues on selfJ!efense. ,e sa/ that a gro/ing empirical political science literature ta(es ;ust such a re#enueJcentere!
approach, illustrating that resource boom times permit both payoffs an! repression, an! that stoc(s of lootable or e*tracti#e resources can bring political
or!er an! stability. 1his counter#ailing effect is most li(ely /ith transitory shoc(s, as current re#enues are affecte! /hile long term #alue is not. Bur
fin!ings are partly consistent /ith this state capacity effect. 'or e*ample, conflict intensity is most sensiti#e to changes in the e*tracti#e commo!ities
rather than the annual agricultural crops that affect househol! incomes more !irectly. 1he relationship only hol!s for conflict intensity, ho/e#er, an! is
some/hat fragile. ,e !o not see a large, consistent or robust !ecline in conflict or coup ris( /hen prices fall. A reasonable interpretation is that the state
priAe an! state capacity effects are either small or ten! to cancel one another out. Bpportunity cost9 Cictory by !efaultUI'inally, the in#erse relationship
bet/een prices an! /ar intensity is consistent /ith opportunity cost accounts, but not e*clusi#ely so. As /e note! abo#e, the relationship bet/een
intensity an! e*tracti#e commo!ity prices is more consistent /ith the state capacity #ie/. Moreo#er, /e shoul!nQt mista(e an in#erse relation bet/een
in!i#i!ual aggression an! incomes as e#i!ence for the opportunity cost mechanism. 1he same correlation is consistent /ith psychological theories of
stress an! aggression (&er(o/itA 3<<K? an! sociological an! political theories of relati#e !epri#ation an! anomie (Merton 3<KOR Gurr 3<P3?.
Microempirical /or( /ill be nee!e! to !istinguish bet/een these mechanisms. Bther reasons for a null result.I"ltimately, ho/e#er, the fact that
commo!ity price shoc(s ha#e no !iscernible effect on ne/ conflict onsets, but some effect on ongoing conflict, suggests that
political stability might be less sensiti#e to income or temporary shoc(s than generally belie#e!. Bne possibility is
that successfully mounting an insurgency is no easy tas(. t comes /ith consi!erable ris(, costs, an! coor!ination challenges. Another possibility is that
the counterfactual is still conflict onset. n poor an! fragile nations, income shoc(s of one type or another are ubi@uitous. f a nation is so fragile
that a change in prices coul! lea! to /ar, then other shoc(s may trigger /ar e#en in the absence of a price
shoc(. 1he same argument has been ma!e in !ebun(ing the myth that price shoc(s le! to fiscal collapse an! lo/ gro/th in !e#eloping nations in the
3<O5s.3< &. A general problem of publication biasU More generally, these fin!ings shoul! heighten our concern /ith publication
bias in the conflict literature. Bur results run against a number of publishe! results on commo!ity shoc(s an!
conflict, mainly because of select samples, misspecification, an! sensiti#ity to mo!el assumptions, an!, most
importantly, alternati#e measures of instability. Across the social an! har! sciences, there is a concern that the ma;ority of publishe!
research fin!ings are false (e.g. Gerber et al. 4553?. oanni!is (455>? !emonstrates that a publishe! fin!ing is less li(ely to be true
/hen there is a greater number an! lesser preJselection of teste! relationshipsR there is greater fle*ibility in
!esigns, !efinitions, outcomes, an! mo!elsR an! /hen more teams are in#ol#e! in the chase of statistical
significance. 1he crossJnational stu!y of conflict is an e*treme case of all these. Most /orryingly, almost no paper
loo(s at alternati#e !epen!ent #ariables or publishes systematic robustness chec(s. Hegre an! -ambanis (455=? ha#e
sho/n that the ma;ority of publishe! conflict results are fragile, though they focus on timein#ariant regressors an! not the timeJ#arying shoc(s that ha#e
gro/n in popularity. ,e are also concerne! there is a 7file !ra/er problem8 (Rosenthal 3<P<?. Consi!er this !ecision rule9 scholars that !isco#er robust
results that fit a theoretical intuition pursue the resultsR but if results are not robust the scholar (or referees? /orry about problems /ith the !ata or
empirical strategy, an! i!entify a!!itional /or( to be !one. f further analysis pro!uces a robust result, it is publishe!. f not, bac( to the file !ra/er. n
the aggregate, the conse@uences are !ire9 a lo/er threshol! of e#i!ence for initially significant results than
ambiguous ones.45
'esilient
Econ resilient
'aree! Va#aria (e!itor of %e/s/ee( nternational? December =55P 71he -ecrets of -tability,8 http9::///.ne/s/ee(.com:i!:44=64>:page:4E
Bne year ago, the /orl! seeme! as if it might be coming apart. 1he global financial system, /hich ha! fuele! a great
e*pansion of capitalism an! tra!e across the /orl!, /as crumbling. All the certainties of the age of globaliAationIabout the #irtues of free mar(ets,
tra!e, an! technologyI/ere being calle! into @uestion. 'aith in the American mo!el ha! collapse!. 1he financial in!ustry ha! crumble!. BnceJroaring
emerging mar(ets li(e China, n!ia, an! &raAil /ere sin(ing. ,orl!/i!e tra!e /as shrin(ing to a !egree not seen since the 3<K5s. Pun!its /hose
bearishness ha! been #in!icate! pre!ict e! /e /ere !oome! to a long, painful bust, /ith casca!ing failures in sector
after sector, country after country . n a /i!ely cite! essay that appeare! in 1he Atlantic n this May, -imon Johnson, former chief economist
of the nternational Monetary 'un!, /rote9 M1he con#entional /is!om among the elite is still that the current slump Hcannot be as ba! as the Great
Depression.H 1his #ie/ is /rong. ,hat /e face no/ coul!, in fact, be /orse than the Great Depression.M Bthers pre!icte! that these
economic shoc(s /oul! lea! to political instability an! #iolence in the /orstJhit countries. At his confirmation hearing in
'ebruary, the ne/ ".-. !irector of national intelligence, A!m. Dennis &lair, cautione! the -enate that Mthe financial crisis an! global recession are li(ely
to pro!uce a /a#e of economic crises in emergingJmar(et nations o#er the ne*t year.M Hillary Clinton en!orse! this grim #ie/. An! she /as har!ly alone.
'oreign Policy ran a co#er story pre!icting serious unrest in se#eral emerging mar(ets. Bf one thing e#eryone /as sure9 nothing /oul! e#er be the same
again. %ot the financial in!ustry, not capitalism, not globaliAation. Bne year later, ho/ much has the /orl! really change!U ,ell,
,all -treet is home to t/o fe/er in#estment ban(s (three, if you count Merrill +ynch?. -ome regional ban(s ha#e gone bust. 1here /as some turmoil in
Mol!o#a an! (entirely unrelate! to the financial crisis? in ran. -e#ere problems remain, li(e high unemployment in the ,est, an! /e face ne/ problems
cause! by responses to the crisisIsoaring !ebt an! fears of inflation. &ut o#erall, things loo( nothing li(e they !i! in the 3<K5s.
1he pre!ictions of economic an! political collapse ha#e not materialiAe! at all . A (ey measure of fear an! fragility is the
ability of poor an! unstable countries to borro/ money on the !ebt mar(ets. -o consi!er this9 the so#ereign bon!s of tottering Pa(istan ha#e returne!
3=O percent so far this year. All this !oesnHt a!! up to a reco#ery yet, but it !oes reflect a return to some le#el of normalcy. An! that reboun! has been so
rapi! that e#en the shre/!est obser#ers remain puAAle!. M1he @uestion ha#e at the bac( of my hea! is Hs that itUH M says Charles 2aye, the coJhea! of
,arburg Pincus. M,e ha! this huge crisis, an! no/ /eHre bac( to business as usualUM1his re#i#al !i! not happen because mar(ets manage! to
stabiliAe themsel#es on their o/n. Rather, go#ernments, ha#ing learne! the lessons of the Great Depression, /ere !etermine! not to repeat
the same mista(es once this crisis hit. &y massi#ely e*pan!ing state support for the economyIthrough central ban(s an! national
treasuriesIthey buffere! the /orst of the !amage. (,hether they ma!e ne/ mista(es in the process remains to be seen.? 1he e*tensi#e
social safety nets that ha#e been establishe! across the in!ustrialiAe! /orl! also cushione! the pain felt by many. 1imes are still tough, but things are
no/here near as ba! as in the 3<K5s, /hen go#ernments playe! a tiny role in national economies. tHs true that the massi#e state inter#entions of the past
year may be fueling some ne/ bubbles9 the cheap cash an! go#ernment guarantees pro#i!e! to ban(s, companies, an! consumers ha#e fuele! some
irrational e*uberance in stoc( an! bon! mar(ets. .et these rallies also !emonstrate the return of confi!ence, an! confi!ence is a #ery po/erful economic
force. ,hen John Maynar! 2eynes !escribe! his o/n prescriptions for economic gro/th, he belie#e! go#ernment action coul! pro#i!e only a temporary
fi* until the real motor of the economy starte! cran(ing againIthe animal spirits of in#estors, consumers, an! companies see(ing ris( an! profit. &eyon!
all this, though, belie#e thereHs a fun!amental reason /hy /e ha#e not face! global collapse in the last year. t is the same
reason that /e /eathere! the stoc(Jmar(et crash of 3<OP, the recession of 3<<4, the Asian crisis of 3<<P, the
Russian !efault of 3<<O, an! the techJbubble collapse of 4555. 1he current global economic system is
inherently more resilient than /e thin( . 1he /orl! to!ay is characteriAe! by three ma;or forces for stability, each
reinforcing the other an! each historical in nature.
(ther e+en %igger crises pro+e resilience
S#o&sen 59 (Mar( -(ousen. M,hat ha#e /e learne!,M 'orecasts W -trategies. 4 Jun. 455K. http9::///.mar(s(ousen.com:article.phpUi!Y35<=?
1he secon! lesson is that the global economy is far more resilient than anyone imagine!. During the past 45 years, /e ha#e
suffere! through t/o ma;or energy crises, !ouble !igit inflation, stoc( mar(et an! real estate crashes in the
".-. an! Japan, an unprece!ente! cre!it crunch, mammoth fe!eral !eficits, the AD- crisis, se#eral ma;or
/ars, terrorist attac(s, the collapse of the -o#iet "nion an! many other miniJpanics, an! yet /e continue to sur#i#e an! e#en
prosper. ,e are not !epressionJproof, but /e are surprisingly !epressionJresistant . Armage!!on has again been postpone.
Economic instit&tions ens&re %o&nce?%ac# e+en if there is a total melt$own
Somer+ille 5@ (Glenn -omer#ille. MPaulson9 )conomy resilient but 'e! mo#e helpful.M Reuters. 44 Jan. 455O.
http9::ne/s.yahoo.com:s:nm:455O5344:bsFnm:usaFeconomyFpaulsonF!c?
1reasury -ecretary Henry Paulson sai! on 1ues!ay he /as confi!ent the ".-. an! global economies /ere resilient but /elcome! an
emergency rate cut by the 'e!eral Reser#e as a helpful mo#e. ADC)R1-)M)%1 1he ".-. central ban( cut benchmar( ".-. interest rates by a steep
threeJ@uarters of a percentage point /hile Paulson /hile still ans/ering @uestions after a!!ressing a Chamber of Commerce brea(fast meeting. Paulson
ha! earlier ac(no/le!ge! the ".-. economy has slo/e! MmateriallyM in recent /ee(s but, !espite a melt!o/n in global stoc( prices, insiste! that
the global economy ha! Mun!erlying resiliencyM that /oul! let it /eather the storm. 1he ".-. 1reasury chief initially
loo(e! surprise! /hen a Chamber of Commerce official sai! the 'e! ha! ;ust cut rates in a relati#ely rare mo#e bet/een meetings of its policyJsetting
'e!eral Bpen Mar(et Committee, but praise! the action. M1his is #ery constructi#e an! thin( it sho/s this country an! the rest of the /orl! that our
central ban( is nimble an! can mo#e @uic(ly in response to mar(et con!itions,M Paulson sai!. 1he ".-. 1reasury chief, /ho
hea!e! ,all -treet giant Gol!man -achs before ta(ing o#er 1reasury in 455=, sai! the T36>Jbillion shortJterm stimulus pac(age that Presi!ent George
,. &ush /as as(ing Congress to /or( on /as nee!e! to minimiAe the impact of a ".-. economic slo/!o/n. M,e nee! to !o something no/, because
shortJterm ris(s are clearly to the !o/nsi!e, an! the potential benefits of @uic( action to support our economy ha#e become clear,M Paulson sai!. &ut
early signs /ere that &ushHs call for bipartisan action JJ an! a relati#ely positi#e Congressional response to it JJ /ere not calming financial mar(ets but
might actually be fanning fears that the economy /as at greater ris( of toppling into recession than officially ac(no/le!ge!. -toc( mar(ets aroun! the
/orl! san( sharply on Mon!ay, /hen ".-. mar(ets /ere close! for the holi!ay in obser#ance of slain ci#il rights lea!er Martin +uther 2ingHs birth!ay.
Paulson trie! to reassure that there /as reason to feel confi!ent in the ".-. economyHs longJterm prospects, not/ithstan!ing se#ere problems in the
housing sector an! other cre!itJmar(et strains. M1he ".-. economy is resilient an! !i#erse ,M he sai!. MtHs been remar(ably
robust an ! it /ill be again.M He a!!e!9 M1he unemployment rate remains lo/ an! ;ob creation continues, albeit at a mo!est pace. 1he
structure of our economy is soun! an! our long term economic fun!amentals are healthy .M
*S Not Qe!
*S not #e!
The Economist L (%o#ember 4K, 7AmericaQs Culnerable )conomy8, pg. 3K?
1he best hope that global gro/th can stay strong lies instea! /ith emerging economies. A !eca!e ago, the thought that
so much !epen!e! on these crisisJprone places /oul! ha#e been terrifying. .et than(s largely to economic reforms, their annual gro/th rate has surge!
to aroun! PL. 1his year they /ill contribute half of the globeHs GDP gro/th, measure! at mar(et e*change rates,
o#er three times as much as America. n the past, emerging economies ha#e often nee!e! bailing out by the rich /orl!. 1his time
they coul! be the rescuers. Bf course, a recession in America /oul! re!uce emerging economiesH e*ports, but they are less #ulnerable than they
use! to be. AmericaHs importance as an engine of global gro/th has been e*aggerate!. -ince 4555 its share of
/orl! imports has !roppe! from 3<L to 36L. ts #ast currentJaccount !eficit has starte! to shrin(, meaning that
America is no longer pulling along the rest of the /orl!. .et gro/th in emerging economies has @uic(ene!, partly than(s to !eman!
at home. n the first half of this year the increase in consumer spen!ing (in actual !ollar terms? in China an! n!ia a!!e! more to global GDP gro/th
than that in America. Most emerging economies are in healthier shape than e#er (see article?. 1hey are no longer financially !epen!ent on the rest of the
/orl!, but ha#e large foreignJe*change reser#esIno less than threeJ@uarters of the global total. 1hough there are some notable e*ceptions, most of them
ha#e small bu!get !eficits (another change from the past?, so they can boost spen!ing to offset /ea(er e*ports if nee! be.
E&rope an$ China are more #e!
Espo DE= (Da#i!, =:4:4534, 7"- economy souring, so /hatHs a Democrat to !oU8 http9::///.seattlepi.com:ne/s:article:"-JeconomyJsouringJsoJ
/hatJsJaJDemocratJtoJ!oJK=564=P.php, JMP?
Compoun!ing the uncertainty, another significant threat to the reco#ery is /ell beyon! the reach of the a!ministration
an! Congress. Mar( _an!i, chief economist at Moo!yHs Analytics, sai! the officials /ith the %iggest infl&ence
o+er the short?term fate of the econom! are in )urope, struggling /ith a !ebt crisis an! in China,
struggling /ith a slo/!o/n. M1he )uropeans ha#e to figure out a /ay to (eep Greece in the euroAone, at least for the ne*t si* to 34 months,M he
sai!. 1he /orry is that a !isor!erly Gree( e*it from the euroAone coul! cause a loss of in#estor confi!ence an! ris( a sprea! of /ea(ness to -pain. M1he
-panish ban(s ha#e announce! more loan losses an! it is clear they !onHt ha#e sufficient capital reser#es to co#er those losses an! it is not clear /here
they are going to get that capital,M _an!i sai!. 1he ris( is a crisis a(in to the one that froAe the ".-. ban(ing system in 455O,
fee!ing the /orst economic !o/nturn since the Great Depression.
EMP ATTACQ
No EMP
No EMP attac#???m&ltiple warrants
Stewart R >&ghes 15 <:<, $-cott -te/art an! $$%ate Hughes /rite for -1RA1'BR Global ntelligence, 7Gauging the 1hreat of an
)lectromagnetic Pulse ()MP? Attac(,8 http9::///.stratfor.com:/ee(ly:45355<5OFgaugingFthreatFelectromagneticFpulseFempFattac(, AJ
Ho/e#er, there are significant $eterrents to the &se of n&clear weapons in a H)MP attac( against the
"nite! -tates, an! nuclear /eapons ha#e not been use! in an attac( any/here since 3<6>. Despite some theoriAing that a
H)MP attac( might be someho/ less !estructi#e an! therefore less li(ely to pro#o(e a !e#astating retaliatory
response, such an attac( against the "nite! -tates /oul! inherently an! necessarily represent a nuclear attac( on
the ".-. homelan! an! the i!ea that the "nite! -tates /oul! not respon! in (in! is absur!. 1he "nite! -tates
continues to maintain the most cre$i%le an$ s&r+i+a%le n&clear $eterrent in the /orl!, an! any actor
contemplating a H)MP attac( /oul! ha#e to assume not that they might e*perience some limite! reprisal but
that the ".-. reprisal /oul! be full, s/ift an! !e#astating. ,hen /e consi!er this scenario, /e must first ac(no/le!ge
that it faces the same obstacles as any other nuclear /eapon employe! in a terrorist attac(. t is &nli#el! that
a terrorist gro&p li#e al Cae$a or >e;%ollah can $e+elop its own n&clear weapons program . t is
also highly unli(ely that a nation that has !e#ote! significant effort an! treasure to !e#elop a nuclear /eapon
/oul! entrust such a /eapon to an outsi!e organiAation. Any use of a nuclear /eapon /oul! be #igorously
in#estigate! an! the nation that pro!uce! the /eapon /oul! be i!entifie! an! /oul! pay a hea#y price for such
an attac( (there has been a large in#estment in the last !eca!e in nuclear forensics?. +astly, as note! abo#e, a nuclear /eapon is seen as a
!eterrent by countries such as %orth 2orea or ran, /hich see( such /eapons to protect themsel#es from in#asion, not
to use them offensi#ely. ,hile a group li(e al Sae!a /oul! li(ely use a nuclear !e#ice if it coul! obtain one, /e
!oubt that other groups such as HeAbollah /oul!. HeAbollah has a (no/n base of operations in +ebanon that
coul! be hit in a counterstri(e an! /oul! therefore be less /illing to ris( an attac( that coul! be trace! bac( to
it. Also, such a scenario /oul! re@uire not a cru!e nuclear !e#ice but a sophisticate! nuclear /arhea! capable of
being mate! /ith a ballistic missile. 1here are consi!erable technical %arriers that separate a cr&$e
n&clear $e+ice from a sophisticate! nuclear /arhea!. 1he engineering e*pertise re@uire! to construct such a
/arhea! is far greater than that re@uire! to construct a cru!e !e#ice. A /arhea! must be far more compact
than a primiti#e !e#ice. t must also ha#e a trigger mechanism an! electronics an! physics pac(ages capable of /ithstan!ing the force of an
C&M launch, the ;ourney into the col! #acuum of space an! the heat an! force of reJentering the atmosphere JJ an! still function as !esigne!.
Designing a functional /arhea! ta(es consi!erable a!#ances in se#eral fiel!s of science, inclu!ing physics,
electronics, engineering, metallurgy an! e*plosi#es technology, an! o#erseeing it all must be a highJen! @uality
assurance capability. &ecause of this, it is our estimation that it /oul! be far simpler for a terrorist group loo(ing to
con!uct a nuclear attac( to !o so using a cru!e !e#ice than it /oul! be using a sophisticate! /arhea! JJ although
/e assess the ris( of any nonJstate actor obtaining a nuclear capability of any (in!, cru!e or sophisticate!, as
e2traor$inaril! &nli#el!. &ut e#en if a terrorist organiAation /ere someho/ able to obtain a functional
/arhea! an! compatible fissile core, the challenges of mating the /arhea! to a missile it /as not !esigne! for an! then
getting it to launch an! !etonate properly /oul! be far more !aunting than it /oul! appear at first glance.
A!!itionally, the process of fueling a li@ui!Jfuele! ballistic missile at sea an! then launching it from a ship using an
impro#ise! launcher /oul! also be #ery challenging. (%orth 2orea, ran an! Pa(istan all rely hea#ily on -cu! technology, /hich uses
#olatile, corrosi#e an! to*ic fuels.? -uch a scenario is challenging enough, e#en before the uncertainty of achie#ing the
!esire! H)MP effect is ta(en into account. 1his is ;ust the (in! of comple*ity an! uncertainty that /ellJtraine!
terrorist operati#es see( to a#oi! in an operation. &esi!es, a groun!Jle#el nuclear !etonation in a city such as %e/ .or( or
,ashington /oul! be more li(ely to cause the type of terror, !eath an! physical !estruction that is sought in a
terrorist attac( than coul! be achie#e! by generally nonJlethal )MP. Ma(e no mista(e9 )MP is real. Mo!ern ci#iliAation
!epen!s hea#ily on electronics an! the electrical gri! for a /i!e range of #ital functions, an! this is truer in the "nite! -tates than in most other
countries. &ecause of this, a H)MP attac( or a substantial geomagnetic storm coul! ha#e a !ramatic impact on mo!ern life in the affecte! area. Ho/e#er,
as /eH#e !iscusse!, the EMP threat has %een aro&n$ for more than half a cent&r! an$ there are a
n&m%er of technical an$ practical +aria%les that ma#e a >EMP attac# &sing a n&clear warhea$
highl! &nli#el!.
More e+i$ence
/&tt 15 4:3, $.ousaf M. &utt /rites for 1he -pace Re#ie/, 71he )MP threat9 fact, fiction, an! response (part 4?,8
http9::///.thespacere#ie/.com:article:3>>K:3, AJ
1hus, it is not at all a simple matter, e#en for countries /ith consi!erable resources an! focuse! !eca!esJlong
effort, to buil! such /eapons, let alone pair them to reliable !eli#ery systems. As carefully argue! by John Mueller in his
ne/ boo(, Atomic Bbsession, it is +irt&all! impossi%le for a terrorist cell to o%tain the raw materials
nee$e$ for a nuclear !e#ice an! assemble it correctly themsel#es DRef 44, p. 3P403<OE. )#en a 7cru!e8 "Jtype !e#ice is not all
that 7cru!e8 an! re@uires the concerte! effort of s(ille! scientists an! engineers. Any /eapon pro!uce! by a terrorist cell /oul! li(ely
be a one of a (in! an! /oul! ha#e to remain unteste!. 'or a terrorist group to then mate this /eapon to a
ballistic missile an! successfully carry out an )MP stri(e beggars belief. As John Pi(e, !irector of Global-ecurity.org has sai!,
7t is ;ust +er! $iffic&lt to imagine ho/ terrorists are going to be able to lay han!s on a nuclearJtippe!
missile, an! launch it an! reprogram it in such a /ay that it /oul! be a highJaltitu!e burst li(e that.8 A state
/oul! be highly unli(ely to launch an )MP stri(e from their o/n territory because the roc(et coul! be trace! to
the country of origin an! /oul! probably result in nuclear or massi#e con#entional retaliation by the "-. 1he
)MP commission also consi!ers a!#ersarial nations carrying out a shipborne )MP attac( that /oul! be less traceable. Ho/e#er, e#en so, there /oul!
some small ris( of traceJbac( that /oul! gi#e the lea!ership in such nations pause. ,hile nuclear forensics are not /ell enough !e#elope! to assure!ly
ascribe the origin of a nuclear e*plosion, e#en their current state of !e#elopment /oul!, in some measure, !issua!e the
lea!ers of a nation from seriously contemplating such an attac(. 'urthermore, the "- certainly has !ata, #ia its D-P
satellites, on the infrare! (R? signatures of the roc(et e*hausts from the missiles of #arious countries. 1hough
these signatures are probably #irtually i!entical for the -cu!:-hahab:%oJ!ong family of missiles, the nations /hich may entertain such attac(s !o not
necessarily (no/ /hether, e.g., the D-P !ata can !iscriminate bet/een a %2 %o!ong #ersus an ranian -hahabs, perhaps !ue to !ifferences in fuel
an!:or subtle !esign i!iosyncrasies. 1his is !ata only the "- has, an! it has an inherent !eterrent #alue to nations thin(ing about launching an )MP
stri(e #ia a shipJlaunche! ballistic missile. 1his is almost certainly the case if, say, ran /ere to use its soli! roc(et motor technology to launch such a
stri(eIif an! /hen ran obtains nuclear /eapons, of course. n such a case, the burn timeJprofile an! soli!Jmotor R signatures coul! probably be use!
to tie the missile to a nation. ,hat about an a!#ersarial nation 7subJcontracting8 its !irty /or( to a terrorist cellU Again, there /oul! be substantial !oubt
in the nationQs lea!ership as to /hether or not forensic e#i!ence (/hether the !e#ice e*plo!e! or not? coul! tie them to the /eapon. n any case, as
argue! by Mueller DRef 44, p. 3=KE it is highly unli(ely that a nation /oul! gi#e one of its cro/n ;e/els to an
unpre!ictable terrorist cell. At least in the case of ran, this #ie/ is supporte! by inJ!epth research !one by
authors at the %ational Defense "ni#ersity, /ho conclu!e, 7D,Ee ;u!ge, an! nearly all e*perts consulte! agree, that ran
/oul! not, as a matter of state policy, gi#e up its control of such /eapons to terrorist organiAations an! ris(
!irect ".-. or sraeli retribution.8 1hough they possess the technological (no/Jho/ to fabricate a po/erful
)MP !e#ice, the possi%ilit! of China or '&ssia carr!ing o&t s&ch an attac# is +irt&all! nil . %ot only
for the regular military !eterrent reasons but also, postJCol! ,ar, our economies are intimately lin(e!, /hich
amounts to an inherent economic !eterrent. 1he latter is li(ely the more rele#ant !eterrent DRef. 44, p. =>E. ,e o/e
China tremen!ous sums of money, they nee! us as a mar(et, an! both the "- an! China re@uire Russian oil #ia
intert/ine! /orl! mar(ets. Although the )MP commissioners ha#e offere! a ChineseJlanguage Po/erPoint presentation outlining the effects
of )MP !e#ices as e#i!ence that China has an interest in such /eapons, this presentation is actually of 1ai/anese origin D7)lectromagnetic Pulse Attac(
an! Defense8, by Dr. Chien ChungE, an! it is not pertinent to any official Chinese military !octrine. +astly, General Robert 1. Marsh, former Chairman of
the Presi!entQs Commission on Critical nfrastructure Protection conclu!e! (in 3<<P? that he $i$ not Asee an! e+i$ence that
s&ggests capa%ilities serio&sl! threatening o&r critical infrastr&ct&re V 1here are many easier, less
costly, an! more !ramatic /ays for terrorists to use nuclear /eapons than !eli#ery to a high altitu!e. S&ch an
e+ent is so &nli#el! an$ $iffic&lt to achie+e that I $o not %elie+e it warrants serio&s concern at
this time.8
No ris# of an EMP attac# an$ no impact an!wa!s???their a&thors ha+e an incenti+e to lie
Farle! P 35:3=, $Robert 'arley is an assistant professor at the "ni#ersity of 2entuc(yQs Patterson -chool of Diplomacy an! nternational Commerce
an! a contributor to PRAQs Right ,eb, 71he )MP 1hreat9 +ots of Hype, +ittle 1raction,8 http9::///.right/eb.ircJ
online.org:articles:!isplay:theFempFthreatFlotsFofFhypeFlittleFtraction, AJ
"ncertainty regar!ing the effect of )MP has fe! alarmist pre$ictions about o#erall impact. 'or e*ample, although there is
agreement that highJaltitu!e nuclear !etonations can cause /i!esprea! !amage to the electric gri! an! to electronic an! !igital e@uipment, there is
little agreement on the siAe of the nuclear /eapon necessary to cause significant, longJlasting !estruction. 1he test
that !amage! electronic e@uipment in Ha/aii measure! 3.6 megatons, roughly one hun!re! times larger than the most po/erful nuclear test attribute!
to %orth 2orea. Ho/e#er, numerous )MP a/areness a!#ocates (an! some members of the )MP Commission? ha#e argue! that a much smaller /arhea!
coul! !estroy electronics from the )ast Coast to the Mi!/est. n the absence of conclusi#e research an! testing, the e*act siAe of
the e*plosion necessary to create a !e#astating )MP remains un(no/n. Man! weapons e2perts $o&%t that
an EMP attac# co&l$ ca&se lasting or irre+ersi%le $amage . -tephen .ounger , former senior fello/ at +os Alamos
%ational +ab an! !irector at the Defense 1hreat Re!uction Agency, argues that /hile an )MP might create problems in the short
term, it is &nli#el! to ca&se long?term $e+astation . -imilarly, obser#ers ha#e @uestione! the capacity of
%orth 2orea or ran, much less a terrorist organiAation, to !e#elop a /arhea! sophisticate! enough to cause
/i!esprea! )MP !amage. %ic( -ch/ellenbach, a former researcher at Pro;ect on Go#ernment B#ersight, suggests that the i!ea of a
small, )MPJoptimiAe! /arhea! is absur!9 M.ou ha#e a lot of points of failure in or!er to get to a /arhea! that is
)MP optimiAe!. V D.Eou nee! specialiAe! machine tools, you nee! capital, but to create a /eapon that creates
the secon!ary effect that youHre tal(ing about, thatHs something e#en /e canHt !o right no/.8 D<E At this point, neither Iran
nor North Qorea possess a missile capa%le of $eli+ering an EMP attac# against the " nite! -tates.
Ho/e#er, Graham, as /ell as Peter Pry, the presi!ent of )MPAC1 America an! former senior staffer /ith the )MP Commission, ha#e argue! in
Congressional testimony that ran coul! launch a me!iumJrange ballistic missile from an offshore barge or freighter, thus gi#ing the slamic Republic
firstJstri(e capability. Moreo#er, )MP a/areness a!#ocates ha#e argue! that if terrorists ac@uire! a ballistic missile an! a nuclear /arhea!, they coul!
con!uct the same (in! of offshore attac(. 1he strategic logic of an )MP attac( on the "nite! -tates remains unclear, an!
s(epticsQ !oubts mostly focus on the strategic implausibility of such attac(s. "n!er the most aggressi#e assumptions, a firstJ
stri(e )MP attac( might cause /i!esprea! economic !amage. Ho/e#er, un!er no scenario /oul! the attac( eliminate the ability of
the ".-. military to respon!. Al Mauroni of the !efense contractor -cience Applications nternational Corporation argues that 7the
national comman! authority /oul! be able to i!entify /here a missile came from, !etermine the effects of such
an attac(, an! respon! /ith nuclear /eaponsInot necessarily ;ust for an )MP effectIagainst the a!#ersarial
nation.8 D35E 'ormer Rep. Curt ,el!on, /ho ga#e the )MPAC1 conferenceQs opening a!!ress, argue! bac( in 3<<P that it /oul! be politically !ifficult
for the "nite! -tates to respon! to such an attac(, as no cities /ill ha#e been !estroye! an! no li#es lost (at least initially?, a claim /hich other )MP
a/areness a!#ocates ha#e echoe!. Ho/e#er, that the "nite! -tates /oul! not respon! /ith o#er/helming military force to a successful )MP attac(
strains cre!ulity. )MP a/areness a!#ocates ha#e thus far faile! to offer a con#incing moti#e for /hy a rogue state
/oul! use its scarce nuclear /eapons in a firstJstri(e that might not /or(, an! that /oul! in any case lea#e the
attac(er open to a !e#astating counterattac(. )MP as a secon!Jstri(e !eterrent fares no betterR the strategic
logic of !eterrence !eman!s that any retaliatory stri(e be as lethal an! as secure as possible, an! it is highly
unli(ely that any state /oul! rely on unpro#en /eaponry of uncertain lethality to !issua!e an attac(. ,hile
terrorists may ha#e !ifferent incenti#es, the roa! to a functional )MP capability is much roc(ier for a terrorist
group than a state. At a minimum, the terrorist group /oul! nee! to ac@uire an! master the operation of a nuclear
/eapon an! a ballistic missile, t/o steps further than any (no/n group has gone. The central political p&rpose
of the EMP awareness mo+ement appears to %e a$+ancement of the ca&se of missile $efense .
1he most e*treme estimates of the effect of )MP restore the Col! ,arJera e*istential fears of nuclear /ar. -ch/ellenbach
argues M/hatHs !ri#ing it is the political global conte*tIit gi#es the right an issue that allo/s them to ;ustify
ha/(ish beha#ior. t is almost a perfect solution to any argument against missile !efenseI%orth 2orea an!
ran.8 D33E 1he <5 percent casualty estimate a!#ance! by EMP awareness a$+ocates h!pes the notion that
the "nite! -tates faces potential annihilation at the han!s of its enemies, an! goes a step farther9 e#en the
smallest nuclear po/er can !estroy the "nite! -tates /ith a small number of /arhea!s. 1his, in turn, reaffirms
the nee! for both a secure missile !efense shiel! (inclu!ing spaceJbase! interceptor /eapons? an! a gran! strategy of
pre#enti#e /ar against potential nuclear an! ballistic missile proliferators. Almost all )MP a/areness
a!#ocatesIinclu!ing Gaffney, Gingrich, an! Huc(abeeIcall for increase! spen!ing on missile !efense. Gaffney an! Gingrich ha#e
also calle! for a 7robust8 policy of preempti#e /ar, inclu!ing attac(s on ranian an! %orth 2orean missiles on their launching pa!s. The fact that
EMP is poorl! researche$ an$ not well &n$erstoo$ wor#s in its fa+or as a scare tactic . -ince
e#i!ence of )MPQs allege!ly lasting impact is p&rel! theoretical , )MP a/areness a!#ocates can ma(e
outlan!ish claims regar!ing the threat that e#en the smallest nuclear arsenal poses. 1hey can also point to
allegations ma!e by the official )MP Commission, ignoring the fact that many outsi!e e*perts !ispute its
fin!ings. 1he %iagara conferenceQs emphasis on strategic an! policy consi!erations sho/s that alarmist pre!ictions about )MP attac(s
ser#e as fo!!er for promotion of a larger nuclear /eapons stoc(pile, for missile !efense, an! for pre#enti#e
attac(s. Despite the effort that conser#ati#es ha#e !e#ote! to this cause, it appears to ha#e gaine$ little traction in the
mainstream me$ia. 1he %e/ .or( 1imes, the ,ashington Post, C%%, 'o* %e/s, an! other ma;or tele#ision ne/s organiAations !ecline! to
co#er the )MPAC1 conference. n!ee!, e#en the neoconser#ati#e ,ee(ly -tan!ar!, /hich seems perpetually on the loo(out for /ays to plug purporte!
e*istential threats to the homelan!, staye! a/ay from %iagara. Bne -tan!ar! e!itor sai! in an inter#ie/ /ith the author, 7 !onHt go for
that )MP stuff. 2in! of more intereste! in !angerous scenarios that might actually happen.8 D34E %e#ertheless, the
presence of Huc(abee an! Gingrich at the conference in!icates that some ma;or Republican Party politicians
see )MP either as a splen!i! political opportunity, or as their latest conser#ati#e litmus test.
EN3I'(NMENT

No E2tinction
En+ironmental collapse won-t ca&se e2tinction
Easter%roo# 59 (Gregg, -enior )!itor of the %e/ Republic, July 455K, 7,eHre All Gonna Die^,8 ,ire!
MagaAine, http9::///./ire!.com:/ire!:archi#e:33.5P:!ooms!ay.html, Hensel?
f /eHre tal(ing about !ooms!ay J the en! of human ci#iliAation J many scenarios simply !onHt measure up. A single nuclear
bomb ignite! by terrorists, for e*ample, /oul! be a/ful beyon! /or!s, but life /oul! go on. People an! machines might con#erge in /ays that you an!
/oul! fin! ghastly, but from the stan!point of the future, they /oul! probably represent an a!aptation. )n#ironmental collapse might
ma(e parts of the globe unpleasant, but consi!ering that the biosphere has sur#i#e! ice ages , it wo&l$n7t %e
the final c&rtain. Depression, /hich has become 35 times more pre#alent in ,estern nations in the post/ar era, might gro/ so /i!esprea! that
#ast numbers of people /oul! refuse to get out of be!, a possibility that Petrane( suggeste! in a !ooms!ay tal( at the 1echnology )ntertainment Design
conference in 4554. &ut Marcel Proust, as miserable as he /as, /rote Remembrance of 1hings Past /hile lying in be!.
'esilient
The en+ironment-s stronger than Ch&c# Norris , it-s s&r+i+e$ e+er!thing
Easter%roo# P6 (Gregg, -enior )!itor of the %e/ Republic, 3<<>, A Moment on Earth, p. 4>, Hensel?
n the aftermath of e#ents such as +o#e Canal or the )**on Cal!eA oil spill, e#ery reference to the en#ironment is preface! /ith the a!;ecti#e Mfragile.M
M'ragile en#ironmentM has become a /el!e! phrase of the mo!ern le*icon, li(e Maging hippieM or Mfugiti#e financier.M &ut the notion of a
fragile en+ironment is profo&n$l! wrong. n!i#i!ual animals, plants, an! people are !istressingly fragile. 1he
en#ironment that contains them is close to in!estructible. 1he li#ing en#ironment of )arth has sur#i#e! ice agesR
bombar!ments of cosmic ra!iation more !ea!ly than atomic falloutR solar ra!iation more po/erful than the /orstJcase pro;ection for oAone
!epletionR thousan!Jyear perio!s of intense #olcanism releasing global air pollution far /orse than that ma!e by any factoryR re#ersals of
the planetHs magnetic polesR the rearrangement of continentsR transformation of plains into mountain ranges an! of seas into
plainsR fluctuations of ocean currents an! the ;et streamR K55Jfoot #acillations in sea le#elsR shortening an!
lengthening of the seasons cause! by shifts in the planetary a*isR collisions of asteroi!s an! comets bearing far more
force than manHs nuclear arsenalsR an! the years /ithout summer that follo/e! these impacts. .et hearts beat on, an! petals unfol! still.
,ere the en#ironment fragile it /oul! ha#e e*pire! many eons before the a!#ent of the in!ustrial affronts of the !reaming ape. Human assaults
on the en#ironment, though mischie#ous, are pinpric#s compare$ to forces of the magnit&$e nat&re is
acc&stome$ to resisting.
Time Frame
There-s a long time frame
Qa! 51 (Jane, staff /riter for the -an 'rancisco Chronicle, July 4=, 4553, 7-tu!y ta(es historical pee( at plight
of ocean ecosystems,8 -an 'rancisco Chronicle, http9::///.sfgate.com:green:article:-tu!yJta(esJhistoricalJ
pee(JatJplightJofJoceanJ4O<>436.php, Hensel?
1he collapse of ecosystems often occur o#er a long perio$ . n one e*ample, /hen Aleut hunters (ille! the Alas(an
sea otter about =655 !ears ago, the population of their natural prey, the sea urchin, gre/ larger than its normal
siAe. n turn, the urchins graAe! !o/n the (elp forests, important habitat for a /hole host of ocean life. 1hen, /hen fur tra!ers in the
3O55s hunte! the otters an! sea co/s almost to e*tinction, the (elp forests !isappeare! an! !i!nHt start to regenerate until the
fe!eral go#ernment protecte! the sea otters in the 45th century. n California, the !i#ersity of spiny lobsters, sheephea! fish an! abalone
(ept !o/n the urchin numbers. At present in Alas(a, the (elp be!s are !eclining again in areas /here (iller /hales are preying on sea otters.
&iologists thin( the (iller /hales s/itche! to otters for foo! because there are fe/er seals an! sea lions to eat.
FAMINE
Alt Ca&se
Agric&lt&re fails %eca&se essential gro&n$ n&trients are lost when har+esting crops
Drechsel Q&n;e an$ Penning $e 3ries 51 DPay Drechsel, -enior -cientist ()n#ironmental an! -oil
-cience? an! ,MHs -ubregional Director for ,est Africa , Dagmar 2unAe, 'AB Regional Bffice for Africa
(RA'?, 'rits Penning !e Cries, /as Principal Researcher an! Douglas Merrey /as Director for Africa, 7-oil
nutrient !epletion an! population gro/th in subJ-aharan Africa9 A Malthusian ne*usU8 Population an!
)n#ironment. %e/ .or(9 Mar 4553. Col. 44, ss. 6R pg. 633, pro@uestE:: CG
n comparison /ith erosion, nutrient leaching appears to be a minor contributor to % an! 2 !epletion an! is negligible
in #ie/ of P, but may become substantial /ith respect to other nutrients such as Mg (Pieri, 3<<4R Poss W -aragoni,
3<<4?. f /e calculate scenarios for uplan! --A an! assume Aero erosion, runoff, an! leaching (an! a#oi! relate!
assessment errors?, /e still get a negati#e % an! 2 balance on a#erage. 1he reason is that the amount of nutrients lost
/ith the har#este! crop an! its resi!ues is not balance! through the current le#el of inputs (fertiliAer, manure?. 1his
means although the control of soil erosion is crucial, it can only re!uce the spee! of nutrient !epletion un!er
the current le#el of inputs, /hich correspon!s /ith empirical e#i!ence (Drechsel W Penning !e Cries, in press?.

)imiting an$ %anning e2ports ha+e ma$e it har$er for impo+erishe$ co&ntries to affor$ foo$
/ra$sher an$ Martin 5O (2eith &ra!sher an! An!re/ Martin June K5, 455O D7Hoar!ing %ations Dri#e
'oo! Costs )#er Higher8 1he %e/ .or( 1imes
http9::///.nytimes.com:455O:5=:K5:business:/orl!business:K5tra!e.htmlU
FrY3WpartnerYrssnytWemcYrssWorefYsloginE:: CG
&A%G2B2 I At least 4< countries ha#e sharply curbe! foo! e*ports in recent months, to ensure that their o/n
people ha#e enough to eat, at affor!able prices. ,hen it comes to rice, n!ia, Cietnam, China an! 33 other countries ha#e limite! or
banne! e*ports. 'ifteen countries, inclu!ing Pa(istan an! &oli#ia, ha#e cappe! or halte! /heat e*ports. More than a !oAen ha#e limite! corn e*ports.
2aAa(hstan has restricte! e*ports of sunflo/er see!s. 1he restrictions are ma(ing it har!er for impo#erishe! importing countries to affor! the foo! they
nee!. 1he e*port limits are forcing some of the most #ulnerable people, those /ho rely on relief agencies, to go
hungry. 7tQs ob#ious that these e*port restrictions fuel the fire of price increases,8 sai! Pascal +amy, the !irector general
of the ,orl! 1ra!e BrganiAation. An! by increasing perceptions of shortages, the restrictions ha#e le! to hoar!ing
aroun! the /orl!, by farmers, tra!ers an! consumers. 7People are in a panic, so they are buying more an! more
I at least, those /ho ha#e money are buying,8 sai! Conching Cas@ueA, a >=JyearJol! rice #en!or /ho sat one recent morning among
piles of rice at her large stall in +os &afos, in the Philippines, the /orl!Qs largest rice importer. Her customers buy O,555 poun!s of rice a !ay, up from
>,>55 poun!s a year ago.
New tech means farmers will alwa!s pro$&ce more foo$
V&%rin 11 (Dr. Robert _ubrin, presi!ent of Pioneer Astronautics, -enior 'ello/ /ith the Center for -ecurity
Policy 7,H. 1Q- ,RB%G 1B AGR)) ,1H 1H) MA+1H"-A%- A&B"1 )1HA%B+8 May 3K,
4533httpHEEwww.ilcorn.orgE$ail!?&p$ateE1@=?wh!?it?rs.&o?s?wrong?to?agree?
with?the?malth&sians?a%o&t?ethanolE"EE CM
n an opJe! article printe! in the Den#er Post May O, e!itorial columnist Cince Carroll en!orse! the #ie/ of population control a!#ocate +ester &ro/n
that the ".-. corn ethanol program is threatening the /orl!Qs poor /ith star#ation. 1his en!orsement is especially remar(able in #ie/ of the fact that, as
the other/ise generally astute Mr. Carroll has correctly note! many times in the past, all of +ester &ro/nQs many pre#ious limite!Jresources
!ooms!ay pre!ictions ha#e pro#en /il!ly incorrect. n fact, +ester &ro/n is /rong about the allege! famineJin!ucing potential of the
ethanol program for e*actly the same reason he has been repeate!ly /rong about the allege! famineJin!ucing potential of population gro/th. 1here is
not a fi*e! amount of grain in the /orl!. 'armers pro!uce in response to !eman!. 1he more customers, the
more grain. %ot only that, but the larger the potential mar(et, the greater the moti#ation for in#estment in
impro#e! techni@ues. 1his is /hy, !espite the fact that the /orl! population has in!ee! !ouble! since +ester
&ro/n, Paul )hrlich, an! the other population control Aealots first publishe! their manifestos !uring the
3<=5s, people /orl!/i!e are eating much better to!ay than they /ere then. n the case of AmericaQs corn gro/ing in!ustry,
the beneficial effect of a gro/ing mar(et has been especially pronounce!, /ith corn yiel!s per acre in 4535 (3=> bushels per acre? being KP percent higher
than they /ere in 4554 (345 bushels per acres? an! more than four times as great as they /ere in 3<=5 (65 bushels per acre.? %ot only that, but in
part because of the impetus of the e*pan!e! ethanol program, another !oubling of yiel! is no/ in sight, as the
best farms ha#e pushe! yiel!s abo#e K55 bushels per acre. As a result, in 4535, the state of o/a alone pro!uce! more corn than
the entire "nite! -tates !i! in 3<6P. Bf our entire corn crop, only 4 percent is actually eaten by Americans as corn, or 34 percent if one inclu!es pro!ucts
li(e corn chips an! corn syrup. 1hese a!#ances in pro!ucti#ity !o not only benefit the "nite! -tates. AmericaQs farmers are the #anguar! for their
counterparts /orl!/i!e. %e/ see! strains an! other techni@ues first !emonstrate! on our most a!#ance! farms,
subse@uently sprea! to a#erage farms, an! then go global, thereby raising crop yiel!s e#ery/here.
FEDE'A)ISM
No Mo$eling
No international mo$eling of fe$eralism
Mora+csi# 56 (An!re/, 7Dream Bn America8, %e/s/ee(, 3:K3, http9::///.msnbc.msn.com:i!:=O>PKOP:site:ne/s/ee(:?
%ot long ago, the American !ream /as a global fantasy. %ot only Americans sa/ themsel#es as a beacon unto nations. -o !i! much of the rest of the
/orl!. )ast )uropeans tune! into Ra!io 'ree )urope. Chinese stu!ents erecte! a replica of the -tatue of +iberty in 1iananmen -@uare.
%ot long ago, the American !ream /as a global fantasy. %ot only Americans sa/ themsel#es as a beacon unto nations. -o !i! much of the rest of the
/orl!. )ast )uropeans tune! into Ra!io 'ree )urope. Chinese stu!ents erecte! a replica of the -tatue of +iberty in 1iananmen -@uare. .ou ha! only to
listen to George ,. &ushHs naugural A!!ress last /ee( (in#o(ing Mfree!omM an! MlibertyM 6< times? to appreciate ;ust ho/ !eeply Americans still belie#e
in this foun!ing myth. 'or many in the /orl!, the presi!entHs rhetoric confirme! their /orst fears of an imperial America relentlessly pursuing its narro/
national interests. &ut the greater !anger may be a !elusional AmericaIone that belie#es, !espite all e#i!ence to the
contrary, that the American Dream li#es on, that America remains a mo!el for the /orl!, one /hose mission is to sprea! the /or!.
1he gulf bet/een ho/ Americans #ie/ themsel#es an! ho/ the /orl! #ie/s them /as summe! up in a poll last /ee( by the &&C. 'ully P3 percent of
Americans see the "nite! -tates as a source of goo! in the /orl!. More than half #ie/ &ushHs election as positi#e for global security. Bther stu!ies report
that P5 percent ha#e faith in their !omestic institutions an! nearly O5 percent belie#e MAmerican i!eas an! customsM shoul! sprea! globally. 'oreigners
ta(e an entirely !ifferent #ie/9 >O percent in the &&C poll see &ushHs reJelection as a threat to /orl! peace. Among AmericaHs tra!itional allies, the figure
is stri(ingly higher9 PP percent in Germany, =6 percent in &ritain an! O4 percent in 1ur(ey. Among the 3.K billion members of the slamic /orl!, public
support for the "nite! -tates is measure! in single !igits. Bnly Polan!, the Philippines an! n!ia #ie/e! &ushHs secon! naugural positi#ely. 1ellingly,
the antiJ&ushism of the presi!entHs first term is gi#ing /ay to a more general antiJAmericanism. A plurality of #oters (the a#erage is P5 percent? in each
of the 43 countries sur#eye! by the &&C oppose sen!ing any troops to ra@, inclu!ing those in most of the countries that ha#e !one so. Bnly one thir!,
!isproportionately in the poorest an! most !ictatorial countries, /oul! li(e to see American #alues sprea! in their country. -ays Doug Miller of
Globe-can, /hich con!ucte! the &&C report9 MPresi!ent &ush has further isolate! America from the /orl!. "nless the a!ministration changes its
approach, it /ill continue to ero!e AmericaHs goo! name, an! hence its ability to effecti#ely influence /orl! affairs.M 'ormer &raAilian presi!ent Jose
-arney e*presse! the sentiments of the PO percent of his countrymen /ho see America as a threat9 M%o/ that &ush has been reJelecte!, all can say is,
Go! bless the rest of the /orl!.M 1he truth is that Americans are li#ing in a !ream /orl!. %ot only !o others not share AmericaHs selfJregar!, they no
longer aspire to emulate the countryHs social an! economic achie#ements. 1he loss of faith in the American Dream goes
beyon! this s/aggering a!ministration an! its /ar in ra@. A Presi!ent 2erry /oul! ha#e ha! to confront a similar !isaffection, for it gro/s from the
success of something America hol!s !ear9 the sprea! of !emocracy, free mar(ets an! international institutionsIglobaliAation, in a /or!. Countries
to!ay ha#e !oAens of political, economic an! social mo!els to choose from. AntiJAmericanism is especially #irulent in )urope
an! +atin America, /here countries ha#e establishe! their o/n !istincti#e /aysInone ma!e in America. 'uturologist Jeremy Rif(in, in his recent boo(
M1he )uropean Dream,M hails an emerging )uropean "nion base! on generous social /elfare, cultural !i#ersity an! respect for international la/Ia
mo!el thatHs caught on @uic(ly across the former nations of )astern )urope an! the &altics. n Asia, the rise of autocratic capitalism in China or
-ingapore is as much a Mmo!elM for !e#elopment as AmericaHs scan!alJri!!en corporate culture. M'irst /e emulate,M one Chinese businessman recently
tol! the boar! of one ".-. multinational, Mthen /e o#erta(e.M Many are tempte! to /rite off the ne/ antiJAmericanism as a temporary perturbation, or
mere resentment. &lin!e! by its o/n myth, America has gro/n incapable of recogniAing its fla/s. 'or there is much about the American Dream to fault.
f the rest of the /orl! has lost faith in the American mo!elIpolitical, economic, !iplomaticIitHs partly for the #ery goo! reason that it !oesnHt /or( as
/ell anymore. AM)RCA% D)MBCRAC.9 Bnce upon a time, the ".-. Constitution /as a re#olutionary !ocument, full of epochal inno#ationsIfree
elections, ;u!icial re#ie/, chec(s an! balances, fe!eralism an!, perhaps most important, a &ill of Rights. n the 3<th an! 45th centuries, countries aroun!
the /orl! copie! the !ocument, not least in +atin America. -o !i! Germany an! Japan after ,orl! ,ar . 1o!ayU ,hen nations /rite a
ne/ constitution, as !oAens ha#e in the past t/o !eca!es, they sel!om loo( to the American mo!el. ,hen the so#iets
/ith!re/ from Central )urope, ".-. constitutional e*perts rushe! in. 1hey got a polite hearing, an! /ere sent
home. Jiri Pehe, a!#iser to former presi!ent Cacla# Ha#el, recalls the CAechsH firm !ecision to a!opt a )uropeanJstyle parliamentary system /ith strict
limits on campaigning. M'or )uropeans, money tal(s too much in American !emocracy. tHs #ery prone to certain (in!s of
corruption, or at least influence from po/erful lobbies,M he says. M)uropeans /oul! not /ant to follo/ that route.M 1hey also sought to limit the
!ominance of tele#ision, unli(e in American campaigns /here, Pehe says, M1C !ebates an! photogenic loo(s go#ern election #ictories.M -o it is else/here.
After American planes an! bombs free! the country, 2oso#o opte! for a )uropean constitution. Drafting a postJaparthei! constitution, -outh Africa
re;ecte! AmericanJstyle fe!eralism in fa#or of a German mo!el, /hich lea!ers !eeme! appropriate for the socialJ/elfare state
they hope! to construct. %o/ fle!gling African !emocracies loo( to -outh Africa as their inspiration, says John -tremlau, a former
".-. -tate Department official /ho currently hea!s the international relations !epartment at the "ni#ersity of ,it/atersran! in Johannesburg9 M,e
canHt rely on the Americans.M 1he ne/ !emocracies are loo(ing for a constitution /ritten in mo!ern times an! reflecting their progressi#e concerns about
racial an! social e@uality, he e*plains. M1o borro/ +incolnHs phrase, -outh Africa is no/ AfricaHs Hlast great hopeH.M Much in American la/ an! society
troubles the /orl! these !ays. %early all countries re;ect the "nite! -tatesH right to bear arms as a @uir(y an! !angerous anachronism. 1hey abhor the
!eath penalty an! !eman! broa!er pri#acy protections. Abo#e all, once most foreign systems reach a reasonable le#el of affluence, they follo/ the
)uropeans in treating the pro#ision of a!e@uate social /elfare is a basic right. All this, says &ruce Ac(erman at .ale "ni#ersity +a/ -chool, contributes
to the gro/ing sense that American la/, once the /orl! stan!ar!, has become Mpro#incial.M 1he "nite! -tatesH
refusal to apply the Gene#a Con#entions to certain terrorist suspects, to ratify global humanJrights treaties such
as the innocuous Con#ention on the Rights of the Chil! or to en!orse the nternational Criminal Court (couple! /ith the abuses at Abu
Ghraib an! Guantanamo? only reinforces the con#iction that AmericaHs Constitution an! legal system are out of step
/ith the rest of the /orl!.
F((D P'ICES
)ow
Foo$ prices non &ni.&e
/loom%erg DELE1= (Ru!y Ruitenberg 7Global 'oo! Prices 'all Most n 4 .ears Bn Dairy Plunge8 Jun P, 4534
P9K3 AM )1 httpHEEwww.%loom%erg.comEnewsE=51=?5D?5LEgol%al?foo$?prices?fell?
most?in?=?!ears?in?ma!?on?grains.html" EE CM
Global foo! prices ha! their biggest !rop in more than t/o years in May as the cost of !airy pro!ucts slumpe!
on increase! supply, easing strain on househol! bu!gets. An in!e* of >> foo! items trac(e! by the "nite! %ationsQ 'oo! W
Agriculture BrganiAation fell 6.4 percent to 45K.< points from 43K points in April, the RomeJbase! agency reporte! on its /ebsite. 1hat /as the
biggest percentage !rop since March 4535. A stronger ".-. !ollar may /ea(en the effect of falling prices on importersQ foo! bills,
Ab!olreAa Abbassian, an 'AB economist, sai! by phone from Rome. 1he ".-. Dollar n!e*, /hich trac(s the
e*change rate against ma;or /orl! currencies, ;umpe! >.6 percent in May, the biggest monthly gain since
-eptember. 71he !ollar has strengthene! tremen!ously, so if youQre an importing country an! you ha#e to pay
in !ollars, youQre not really getting the full impact of these sli!ing prices,8 Abbassian sai!. 7.ouQre not getting
the full effect.8 Meat prices may fall in coming months, mirroring a price correction for !airy, accor!ing to Abbassian.
1he 'AB Dairy Price n!e* slumpe! 34 percent to 3=6.3 points, the biggest !rop since January 455< , /hile the meat in!e* slippe!
5.> percent to 3PO.O points. 71he !airy !ecline is from a #ery high le#el ,8 Abbassian sai!. 7 tQs a !elaye!
correction. t /oul! not surprise me to see the same for meat.8 Freight *ates +orld mil, production is forecast to clim- 2.. percent this
year to ./0.1 million metric tons, accelerating from last year0s 2. percent increase, the F12 has forecast. 'alling agriculturalJcommo!ity prices
an! 7really lo/8 freight rates help foo!Jimporting countries, the 'AB economist sai! . 3,rainian consumer prices fell for the
first time in more than nine years in 4ay, led -y a 0.' percent month-on-month drop for food and -everages. 5ur,ish inflation last month slowed the most since 6anuary
200 as the central -an, tightened lending and food prices slumped. 78nternational prices for most commodities wea,ened in recent wee,s on generally favora-le
supply prospects amid growing economic uncertainties and a strengthening 3.9. dollar,: the F12 wrote. Cereals ;rop 5he F12 Cereals <rice 8nde$ dropped for a
second month, slipping 1.1 percent to 220.( points. Corn futures fell 12 percent in Chicago last month amid e$pectations for record world production after 3.9. farmers
increased planting. +heat slipped 1.& percent in Chicago, while soy-ean futures declined 11 percent. 5he F12, in a separate report, raised its outloo, for world grain
production in 2012-1 to 2.=2 -illion metric tons from 2.. -illion tons previously. 5he forecast for the harvest of coarse grains, which includes corn, was lifted to 1.2/
-illion tons from 1.21 -illion tons. 7A lot of the prospects of goo! supplies still hinge on har#est results, /hich are still a
couple of months ahea!, 8 1--assian said. 7 ,e are no/ in a mar(et /here any ba! ne/s on /eather coul! mo#e
prices up sharply.8
Foo$ prices ha$ the %iggest $rop in = !ears
/loom%erg LELE1= (7Global 'oo! Prices 'all Most n 4 .ears Bn Dairy Plunge8 Jun P, 4534 P9K3 AM )1
http9::///.bloomberg.com:ne/s:4534J5=J5P:golbalJfoo!JpricesJfellJmostJinJ4JyearsJinJmayJonJ
grains.html? :: CG
Drops most in 4 years on !airy plunge PAR- I Global foo! prices ha! their biggest !rop in more than t/o years in May as
the cost of !airy pro!ucts slumpe! on increase! supply, easing strain on househol! bu!gets. An in!e* of >> foo! items
trac(e! by the "nite! %ationsQ 'oo! an! Agriculture BrganiAation fell 6.4 percent to 45K.< points from 43K points in April, the RomeJbase! agency
reporte! on its /ebsite. 1hat /as the biggest percentage !rop since March 4535. A stronger !ollar may /ea(en the effect of falling
prices on importersQ foo! bills, Ab!olreAa Abbassian, an 'AB economist, sai! by phone from Rome. 1he ".-. Dollar n!e*, /hich trac(s the
e*change rate against ma;or /orl! currencies, ;umpe! >.6 percent in May, the biggest monthly gain since
-eptember. 71he !ollar has strengthene! tremen!ously, so if youQre an importing country an! you ha#e to pay in !ollars, youQre not really getting the
full impact of these sli!ing prices,8 Abbassian sai!. 7.ouQre not getting the full effect.8 Meat prices may fall in coming months,
mirroring a price correction for !airy, accor!ing to Abbassian. 1he 'AB Dairy Price n!e* slumpe! 34 percent to 3=6.3 points, the
biggest !rop since January 455<, /hile the meat in!e* slippe! 5.> percent to 3PO.O points. 71he !airy !ecline is from a #ery high le#el,8 Abbassian sai!.
7tQs a !elaye! correction. t /oul! not surprise me to see the same for meat.8 ,orl! mil( pro!uction is forecast to climb 4.P
percent this year to P>5.3 million metric tons, accelerating from last yearQs 4.K percent increase, the 'AB has forecast. 'alling agriculturalJ
commo!ity prices an! 7really lo/8 freight rates help foo!Jimporting countries, the 'AB economist sai!. "(rainian
consumer prices fell for the first time in more than nine years in May, le! by a 5.O percent monthJonJmonth !rop for foo! an! be#erages. 1ur(ish
inflation last month slo/e! the most since January 455K as the central ban( tightene! len!ing an! foo! prices slumpe!. 7nternational prices for most
commo!ities /ea(ene! in recent /ee(s on generally fa#orable supply prospects ami! gro/ing economic uncertainties an! a strengthening ".-. !ollar,8
the 'AB /rote. 1he 'AB Cereals Price n!e* !roppe! for a secon! month, slipping 3.3 percent to 445.< points. Corn
futures fell 34 percent in Chicago last month ami! e*pectations for recor! /orl! pro!uction after ".-. farmers
increase! planting. ,heat slippe! 3.= percent in Chicago, /hile soybean futures !ecline! 33 percent. 1he 'AB, in a
separate report, raise! its outloo( for /orl! grain pro!uction in 4534J3K to 4.64 billion metric tons from 4.KP billion tons pre#iously. 1he forecast for the
har#est of coarse grains, /hich inclu!es corn, /as lifte! to 3.4> billion tons from 3.43 billion tons. 7A lot of the prospects of goo! supplies still hinge on
har#est results, /hich are still a couple of months ahea!,8 Abbassian sai!. 7,e are no/ in a mar(et /here any ba! ne/s on /eather coul! mo#e prices up
sharply.8
>EMEM(NI
)i%eral International Norms Sol+e
E+en if the *S $eclines li%eral international norms will s&r+i+e ? sol+es the impact
IQEN/E''I 11 0 (May:June issue of 'oreign Affairs, G. John, PhD, Albert G. Milban( Professor of Politics an! nternational Affairs at
Princeton "ni#ersity in the Department of Politics an! the ,oo!ro/ ,ilson -chool of Public an! nternational Affairs, 71he 'uture of the +iberal ,orl!
Br!er,8 http9::///.foreignaffairs.com:
articles:=PPK5:gJ;ohnJi(enberry:theJfutureJofJtheJliberalJ/orl!Jor!erUpageYsho/?
'or all these reasons, many obser#ers ha#e conclu!e! that /orl! politics is e*periencing not ;ust a changing of the
guar! but also a transition in the i!eas an! principles that un!erlie the global or!er. 1he ;ournalist Gi!eon Rachman, for
e*ample, says that a cluster of liberal internationalist i!eas JJ such as faith in !emocratiAation, confi!ence in free mar(ets, an! the acceptability of ".-.
military po/er JJ are all being calle! into @uestion. Accor!ing to this /orl!#ie/, the future of international or!er /ill be
shape! abo#e all by China, /hich /ill use its gro/ing po/er an! /ealth to push /orl! politics in an illiberal !irection. Pointing out that China
an! other nonJ,estern states ha#e /eathere! the recent financial crisis better than their ,estern counterparts, pessimists argue that an
authoritarian capitalist alternati#e to ,estern neoliberal i!eas has alrea!y emerge!. Accor!ing to the scholar -tefan
Halper, emergingJmar(et states Mare learning to combine mar(et economics /ith tra!itional autocratic or semiautocratic politics in a process that signals
an intellectual re;ection of the ,estern economic mo!el.M 1o!ayHs international or!er is not really American or ,esternJJe#en if it initially appeare! that
/ay. &ut this panic(e! narrati#e misses a !eeper reality9 although the "nite! -tatesH position in the global
system is changing, the liberal international or!er is ali#e an! /ell. 1he struggle o#er international or!er to!ay is not
about fun!amental principles. China an! other emerging great po/ers !o not /ant to contest the basic rules an!
principles of the liberal international or!erR they /ish to gain more authority an! lea!ership /ithin it. n!ee!, to!ayHs
po/er transition represents not the $efeat of the li%eral or$er %&t its &ltimate ascen$ance . &raAil,
China, an! n!ia ha#e all become more prosperous an! capable by operating insi!e the e*isting international
or!er JJ benefiting from its rules, practices, an! institutions, inclu!ing the ,orl! 1ra!e BrganiAation (,1B? an! the ne/ly organiAe! GJ45. 1heir
economic success an! gro/ing influence are tie! to the liberal internationalist organiAation of /orl! politics,
an! they ha#e !eep interests in preser#ing that system. n the meantime, alternati#es to an open an! ruleJbase!
or!er ha#e yet to crystalliAe. )#en though the last !eca!e has brought remar(able uphea#als in the global
system JJ the emergence of ne/ po/ers, bitter !isputes among ,estern allies o#er the "nite! -tatesH unipolar ambitions, an! a global financial crisis
an! recession JJ the liberal international or!er has no competitors. Bn the contrary, the rise of nonJ,estern po/ers an! the gro/th of
economic an! security inter!epen!ence are creating ne/ constituencies for it. 1o be sure, as /ealth an! po/er become less
concentrate! in the "nite! -tatesH han!s, the country /ill be less able to shape /orl! politics. &ut the
un!erlying foun!ations of the liberal international or!er /ill sur#i#e an! thri#e. n!ee!, no/ may be the best time for the
"nite! -tates an! its !emocratic partners to up!ate the liberal or!er for a ne/ era, ensuring that it continues to pro#i!e the benefits of security an!
prosperity that it has pro#i!e! since the mi!!le of the t/entieth century.
Pre$ictions Fail
Pre$ictions &n$erestimate loc#ing mechanisms to heg
N('')(F -15 J an Associate Professor in the Department of Political -cience at the "ni#ersity of 1oronto (Carla, 7 AmericaQs Global A!#antage
"- Hegemony an! nternational Cooperation8 p. 3J4?
,e ha#e seen erroneous pre!ictions of American !ecline before. n the 3<P5s, the combination of high inflation, high interest
rates, high unemployment, the Cietnam ,ar, political an! military challenges from China an! the -o#iet "nion, an! the economic rise of Japan le! to
eerily similar forecasts. Pessimists then, as to!ay, un!erestimate! the longe#ity of American po/er. 1he main reason the "nite!
-tates has continue! to occupy a uni@ue place in the international system is because a sufficient number of ma;or an! lesser po/ers
ha#e a strong interest in maintaining America at the top of the hierarchy. 1o bring America !o/n /oul! ta(e a
!eliberate, coor!inate! strategy on the part of others an! this is simply not plausible. As much as the "nite! -tates
benefits from the space it has car#e! out for itself in the current /orl! or!er, its ability to reap une@ual gains /ill remain unless an! until allies start to
incur hea#y losses un!er American !ominance. )#en that, by itself, /ill not be sufficient to sin( American hegemony. A strong alternati#e to American
rule /ill ha#e to come into #ie/ for things to fun!amentally change. At present, no cre!ible alternati#e is in sight. 1he "nite! -tates is not
in#incible but its !ominance is currently stea!y. 1hose /ho are incline! to thin( that American hegemony /ill persist 0 at least for a /hile 0 ten! to
!/ell on the claim that the "nite! -tates is pro#i!ing a range of public goo!s to the benefit of all at its o/n e*pense. 1his is a chimera. 1he "nite! -tates
is selfJintereste!, not altruistic. 1he illusion of bene#olence has meant that #ery little attention has been gi#en to unco#ering the
mechanism through /hich the "nite! -tates gains $isproportionatel! from supplying a large open mar(et,
the /orl!Qs reser#e currency, an! a military machine capable of sto(ing or foiling !ea!ly !isputes. 1his boo( e*poses
the mechanism through /hich the "nite! -tates reaps une@ual gains an! sho/s that the current /orl! system, an! the
!istribution of po/er that supports it, has builtJin stabiliAers that strengthen American po/er follo/ing bouts of !ecline.
Although all !ominant po/ers must e#entually !ecline, /ill sho/ that the !o/n/ar! progression nee! not be linear /hen mutually reinforcing
ten!encies across #arious po/er !imensions are at play. -pecifically, /ill !emonstrate ho/ the "nite! -tatesQ reser#e currency status pro!uces
!isproportionate commercial gainsR ho/ commercial po/er gi#es a!!e! fle*ibility in monetary affairsR an!, finally, ho/ military prepon!erance creates
a!#antages in both monetary an! tra!e affairs.
IND(?PAQ 4A'
Cooperation
In$ia an$ Pa#istan are increasing cooperation
)i+e Mint 1= (Eli;a%eth 'oche )i+e Mint 1= Th& <&l 6 =51=. AIn$ia Pa#istan agree to #eep
$ialog&e process on trac#B httpHEEwww.li+emint.comE=51=E5LE561==D5=EIn$ia?
Pa#istan?agree?to?#eep.htmlThWA1"EE CM
%e/ Delhi9 Despite the ob#ious !ifferences on ho/ to !eal /ith terrorism an! on the probe into the 455O Mumbai terrorist attac(s, n!ia an!
Pa(istan on 1hurs!ay agree! that progress ha! been ma!e in their yearJol! !ialogueIresume! after being halte! by the
%o#ember 455O terrorist attac(s in Mumbai that left 3== people !ea!. &oth si!es also agree! to (eep their !ialogue process on trac( /ith n!iaQs foreign
minister -.M. 2rishna e*pecte! to tra#el to Pa(istan in the first half of -eptember for !iscussions /ith his Pa(istani counterpart Hina Rabbani 2har.
7,hile /e might not agree on all issues, /e !o agree that relations bet/een our t/o countries ha#e to be
normaliAe!.8 n!ian foreign secretary Ran;an Mathai tol! reporters at the en! of the t/oJ!ay tal(s /ith his Pa(istani counterpart Jalil Abbas Jilani.
71here is a !etermination on both si!es to ta(e for/ar! our !ialogue /ith an open min! an! a constructi#e spirit.8 1hough the /ay for/ar! /as not easy,
7the #ery fact that both si!es are !etermine! to sit across the table an! resol#e all outstan!ing issues through a
!ialogue in a peaceful manner is a positi#e step in the right !irection.8 Mathai sai!. Bne of the (ey areas of
!i#ergence /as terrorism. 7 emphasiAe! that terrorism is the biggest threat to peace an! security in the region, an! that bringing the guilty to
;ustice in the Mumbai terror attac(s /oul! be the biggest confi!ence buil!ing measure of all,8 Mathai sai!. He /as referring to the threeJ!ay rampage by
35 slamist militants belonging to the Pa(istanJbase! +ash(arJeJ1aiba militant group /ho targete! some prominent Mumbai lan!mar(s in the attac(
that starte! on the night of 4= %o#ember 455O. 1he n!ian go#ernment belie#es that gi#en the scale of the attac(s, the
militants ha! the support of some sections of the Pa(istani establishment. n!iaQs arguments ha#e been strengthene! by the
re#elations of Abu Jun!al, an allege! han!ler of the Mumbai attac(ers, /ho /as arreste! last month. n!ia has been pressing Pa(istan for a spee!y trial
of the perpetrators of the Mumbai attac(s, but Pa(istan has repeate!ly state! that n!ia has not gi#en a!e@uate e#i!ence to con#ict anyone. Bn
1hurs!ay, Mathai sai! he ha! !iscusse! the information gleane! from Jun!al an! share! it /ith Jilani. Jilani, on his part, sai! he 7strongly8 re;ecte!
7any insinuation of any in#ol#ement of any state agency in acts of terrorism in n!ia8. 7,e ha#e o#er the years impro#e! our le#el of
cooperation. An! in case there are certain gaps that nee! to be fille!, thin( /e shoul! fill those gaps in a spirit
of cooperation,8 Jilani sai!, a!!ing that terrorism /as a common threat facing both n!ia an! Pa(istan. Mutual recriminations /ill be
counterpro!ucti#e, he sai!, a!!ing that n!ia shoul! supply Pa(istan /ith all the e#i!ence it has on the Mumbai attac(s an! 7/e /ill in#estigate this
matter. ,e /ill e#en be /illing to offer ;oint in#estigation into the /hole affair,8 Jilani sai!. &oth the foreign secretaries agree! that tra!e /as an area
/here consi!erable progress ha! been ma!e. 7 thin( the for/ar! mo#ement on economic an! commercial cooperation
bet/een n!ia an! Pa(istan is really a /elcome !e#elopment. An! /e see it as a /inJ/in proposition for both
the si!es. )nhance! economic cooperation contributes to economic gro/th an! !e#elopment in our t/o
countries /hich is the primary ob;ecti#e on both si!es,8 Mathai sai!. mpro#e! economic ties ha#e been the !ri#er of the current
phase of the peace !ialogue, /ith Pa(istan announcing that it /as loo(ing at normaliAing tra!e /ith n!ia by e*pan!ing the list of items that can be
importe! from n!ia by more than threefol!. &oth the countries also opene! a ne/ chec(post through /hich goo!s can be tra!e! at the ,agahJAttari
bor!er crossing. 1he Pa(istani foreign secretary sai! he an! Mathai ha! also !iscusse! impro#ing contacts bet/een the t/o regions of 2ashmir that
n!ia an! Pa(istan a!minister. 7,e ha#e agree! to con#ene a meeting of the ;oint /or(ing group on crossJline of control confi!ence buil!ing measures
an! to streamline an! strengthen tra#el an! tra!e arrangements,8 he sai!. n 455O, n!ia an! Pa(istan operationaliAe! tra!e bet/een the t/o regions of
2ashmir. &ut reports say local 2ashmiris are see(ing a broa!ening of the tra!e list, besi!es !eman!ing a!e@uate ban(ing an! communications systems,
in the absence of /hich tra!e is restricte! to basic bartering. 2ashmir /as also !iscusse!, a ;oint statement sai!. 1he e*change on 2ashmir /as
comprehensi#e an! both the si!es agree! to carry on the !ialogue to fin! a peaceful solution to the problem, it sai!. 7 !ontQ see both si!es arri#ing at
solutions to the issues that are !ea!loc(e!I2ashmir an! terrorism,M sai! 2alim &aha!ur, former professor of -outh Asian -tu!ies at Ja/aharlal %ehru
"ni#ersity. 7&ut ha#ing a !ialogue, (eeping a !ialogue on trac( is better than ha#ing /ar or tense relations.8
No Escalation
In$oEPa# war will not go n&clearGno one wants to stri#e first an$ fear of *S in+ol+ement
En$ers -5= (Da+i$ En$ers the Dail! News e$itor AE2perts sa! n&clear war still
&nli#el!B <an&ar! 95
th
2002, DA: 7/26/10, httpHEEwww.michigan$ail!.comEcontentEe2perts?
sa!?n&clear?war?still?&nli#el!TpageW55"EECG
"ni#ersity political science Prof. Ashutosh Carshney becomes animate! /hen as(e! about the li(elihoo! of nuclear /ar bet/een n!ia an! Pa(istan.
MB!!s are close to Aero,M Carshney sai! forcefully, stan!ing up to pace a little bit in his office. M1he assumption that n!ia
an! Pa(istan cannot manage their nuclear arsenals as /ell as the ".-.-.R. an! ".-. or Russia an! China
conce!es less to the intellect of lea!ers in both n!ia an! Pa(istan than /oul! be /arrante!.8 1he /orl!Ms t/o
youngest nuclear po/ers first teste! /eapons in 3<<O, spar(ing fear of subcontinental nuclear /ar a fear Carshney fin!s ri!iculous. M1he !ecision ma(ers
are a/are of /hat nuclear /eapons are, e#en if the masses are not,M he sai!. M,atching the e#ening ne/s, C%%, thin( they ha#e #astly
o#erstate! the threat of nuclear /ar,M political science Prof. Paul Huth sai!. Carshney a!!e! that there are numerous factors
/or(ing against the possibility of nuclear /ar. Mn!ia is committe! to a noJfirstJstri(e policy,M Carshney sai!. Mt is
#irtually impossible for Pa(istan to go for a first stri(e, because the retaliation /oul! be gra#ely !angerous.M
Political science Prof. 2enneth +ieberthal, a former special assistant to Presi!ent Clinton at the %ational -ecurity Council, agree!. M"sually a
country that is in the position that Pa(istan is in /oul! not shift to a le#el that /oul! ensure their total
!estruction,M +ieberthal sai!, ma(ing note of n!iaMs consi!erably larger nuclear arsenal. MAmerican inter#ention is another reason
not to e*pect nuclear /ar,M Carshney sai!. Mf anything has happene! since -eptember 33, it is that the comman! control system has
strengthene!. 1he trigger is in #ery safe han!s.M
No 4ar
No war or escalation???MAD chec#s
Economic Times 11 >:3P, 7%o chance of n!oJPa( nuclear /ar !espite Hsabre rattlingH9 Pa( nuclear scientist A S 2han,8
http9::articles.economictimes.in!iatimes.com:4533J5>J3P:ne/s:4<>>4536F3FnuclearJblac(mailJnuclearJsecretsJin!iaJan!Jpa(istan, AJ
%), .BR29 Pa(istanHs !isgrace! nuclear scientist A S 2han has sai! that !espite Msabre rattlingM bet/een slamaba! an! %e/
Delhi, there is no chance of a n&clear war %etween the two neigh%o&rs . 2han, /ho has been accuse! of selling
nuclear secrets to ran, +ibya an! -yria, /rote in %e/s/ee( magaAine that nuclear /eapons in both countries ha! pre+ente$ war
for the last 05 !ears . Mn!ia !oesnHt nee! more than fi#e /eapons to hurt us ba!ly, an! /e /oul!nHt nee!
more than 35 to return the fa#our,M he sai!. M1hat is /hy there has been no /ar bet/een us for the past 65 years.M
Mn!ia an$ Pa#istan &n$erstan$ the ol$ principle that ens&re$ peace in the Col$ 4arH m&t&all!
ass&re$ $estr&ction,M he sai!. M1he t/o (n!ia an! Pa(istan? canHt affor! a nuclear /ar, an! !espite our sabre
rattling, there is no chance of a nuclear /ar that /oul! sen! us both bac( to the -tone Age,M he sai!. He claime! that
Pa(istan ha! to in#est in a nuclear programme Mto /ar! off nuclear blac(mail from n!iaM. M /oul! li(e to ma(e it clear that it /as an n!ian nuclear
e*plosion in May 3<P6 that prompte! our nuclear program, moti#ating me to return to Pa(istan to help create a cre!ible nuclear !eterrent an! sa#e my
country from n!ian nuclear blac(mail,M he sai!. M,e are force! to maintain this !eterrence until our !ifferences /ith n!ia
are resol#e!. 1hat /oul! lea! to a ne/ era of peace for both countries,M 2han /rote. M hope li#e to see Pa(istan an! n!ia
li#ing harmoniously in the same /ay as the once bitter enemies Germany an! 'rance li#e to!ay,M he sai!. 2han blaste! #arious go#ernments in Pa(istan
as /ell as Msuccessi#e incompetent an! ignorant rulersM for not engaging in basic !e#elopment of the country, an! raising the peopleHs stan!ar! of li#ing.
M,e are far /orse off no/ than /e /ere 45, or e#en 65, years ago /hen /e /ere sub;ecte! to embargoes,M he sai!.
IN3ASI3E SPECIES
No E2tinction
In+asi+e species won-t ca&se e2tinctionGlong term effects are increases in %io$i+ersit!
Craig 15GDepartment of Marine Sciences *ni+ersit! of P&erto 'ico DMatthe/ 1, 7Patter Cersus Process9
&roa!ening the Cie/ of Marine n#asi#e -pecies,8 ,eb, 35:35, Marine &iology, Pro@uest, =:43:34E
1he patterns obser#e! as results of in#asi#e species often e#o(e strong emotional responses as in the short term seemingly
catastrophic changes occur. Ho/e#er, in ta(ing a broa!er loo( at the processes un!erlying species in#asions an! their longJterm
ecological interactions, /e see that they may be a fun!amental contributor to the generation of ne/ !i#ersity through
&riggsH A- mechanism. 1a(e for e*ample, the Great 1rans Arctic &iotic nterchange (&riggs 3<<>?. 1he opening of the &erring
-traight !uring the CenoAoic allo/e! for the e*change of hun!re!s of species bet/een the %orth Atlantic an!
the %orth Pacific Bceans. Among the Atlantic species of molluscs /ith Pacific ancestors, nearly 6PL e#ol#e! into !istinct species (Cermei;
455>?.
In+asi+e species won-t lea$ to e2tinctionGmarine ecos!stems resilient
Craig 15GDepartment of Marine Sciences *ni+ersit! of P&erto 'ico DMatthe/ 1, 7Patter Cersus Process9
&roa!ening the Cie/ of Marine n#asi#e -pecies,8 ,eb, 35:35, Marine &iology, Pro@uest, =:43:34E
,hile in#asi#e species un!oubte!ly ha#e the ten!ency to alter ecosystems, the resiliency of marine ecosystems allo/s
the in#a!er to be accommo!ate! through small to large shifts in niche occupancy of nati#e species. Rather than cause
e*tinctions, per se, this accommo!ation increases ecological interactions among species, /hich o#er e#olutionary
time scales may result in ecological speciation. &riggs thus argues that a threeJstep process, in#asion, accommo!ation, an! speciation (the
A- mechanism?, pro#i!es a plausible mechanism for in#asi#e species to actually cause an increase in bio!i#ersity.
I'AN P'()IFE'ATI(N
No 4eapons
Iran $oesn-t ha+e n&clear weapons
INET 1= 4:46, $srael ,orl! %e/s, 7"- belie#es ran not trying to buil! nuclear bomb,8 http9::///.ynetne/s.com:articles:5,PK65,+J
63<6K5P,55.html, AJ
+A 1imes report claims 1D *S intelligence agencies agree that /hile ran is pursuing nuclear research it has not
so&ght to %&il$ weapon, strengthening !isagreement /ith srael o#er military stri(e. A highly classifie! "- intelligence
assessment circulate! among policyma(ers early last year largely affirms the #ie/, originally ma!e in 455P. &oth
reports, (no/n as national intelligence estimates, conclu!e that ran halte$ efforts to $e+elop an$ %&il$ a
n&clear warhea$ in =559. 1he +A 1imes goes on to claim that the most recent report, /hich represents the consensus of 3= "-
intelligence agencies, in!icates that ran is pursuing research that coul! put it in a position to buil! a /eapon, but that it has not
sought to !o so. An! /hile ran continues to enrich &rani&m at low le+els , "- officials say they ha#e not
seen e#i!ence that has cause! them to significantly re#ise that ;u!gment.
More e+i$ence
'isen R Ma;;etti 1= 4:4>, $JAM)- R-)% an! $$MAR2 MA__)119 1he %e/ .or( 1imes, 7".-. Agencies -ee %o Mo#e by ran to &uil! a
&omb,8 http9::///.postJgaAette.com:pg:345>=:3434=<PJO4.stm, AJ
,A-H%G1B% JJ )#en as the "nite! %ationsH nuclear /atch!og sai! in a ne/ report 'ri!ay that ran has accelerate! its uranium enrichment program,
American intelligence analysts continue to belie#e that there is no har$ e+i$ence that Iran has $eci$e$ to
%&il$ a n&clear %om%. 'ecent assessments %! American sp! agencies are broa!ly consistent /ith a
455P intelligence fin!ing that conclu!e! that ran ha! aban!one! its nuclear /eapons program years earlier, accor!ing to
current an! former American officials. 1he officials sai! that assessment /as largely reaffirme! in a 4535 %ational ntelligence
)stimate, an! that it remains the consensus #ie/ of AmericaHs 3= intelligence agencies. At the center of the !ebate is the
mur(y @uestion of the ultimate ambitions of the lea!ers in 1ehran. 1here is no !ispute among American, sraeli an! )uropean intelligence officials that
ran has been enriching nuclear fuel an! !e#eloping some necessary infrastructure to become a nuclear po/er. &ut the
Central ntelligence Agency an! other intelligence agencies belie#e that ran has yet to !eci!e /hether to resume a parallel
program to !esign a nuclear /arhea! JJ a program they belie#e /as essentially halte! in 455K an! /hich /oul! be
necessary for ran to buil! a nuclear bomb. ranian officials maintain that their nuclear program is for ci#ilian purposes. M
thin( the ranians /ant the capability, but not a stoc#pile ,M sai! 2enneth C. &rill, a former "nite! -tates ambassa!or to the
nternational Atomic )nergy Agency /ho also ser#e! as !irector of the intelligence communityHs %ational Counterproliferation Center from 455> until
455<. A!!e! a former intelligence official9 M1he n!ians /ere a scre/!ri#er turn a/ay from ha#ing a bomb for many years. 1he ranians are not
that close.M ranHs efforts to hi!e its nuclear facilities an! to !ecei#e the ,est about its acti#ities ha#e also
intensifie! !oubts. &ut some American analysts /arn that such beha#ior is not necessaril! proof of a weapons
program. 1hey say that one mista(e the C..A. ma!e before the /ar in ra@ /as to assume that because -a!!am Hussein resiste! /eapons
inspections JJacting as if he /ere hi!ing something JJ it meant that he ha! a /eapons program.
Iran $oesn-t want n&#es
Afrasia%i LE0 4534, $2a#eh + Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After 2homeini9 %e/ Directions in ranHs 'oreign Policy (,est#ie/ Press?, 7,hy
ran !oes not /ant the bomb,8 Asia 1imes, http9::///.atimes.com:atimes:Mi!!leF)ast:%G56A(56.html, AJ
,altA is /rong to assume that ran has been moti#ate! to go fully nuclear as a result of the percei#e! threat of
sraelHs arsenal. Contrary to /hat ,altA says, Iran7s lea$ers ha+e repeate$l! pointe$ to the F&selessnessF an$
Ff&tilit!F of Israel7s arsenal, reflecte! in the absence of its utility in the #arious sraeli /ars /ith its Arab neighbors. 1he i!ea of
Mnuclear blac(mailM by srael may be highly important to Arab lea!ers, but there is no e#i!ence that it figures
prominently among the ranian lea!ership. 'or the moment, ho/e#er, Iran is fairl! content /ith its nuclear
progress, /hich has brought it to the latent brea(out capability, per the a!mission of Hossein Mousa#ian, a former ranian
nuclear negotiator, an! yet /ithout any sign that ran has any intention of turning that latent po/er into a nuclearJ
/eapons regime. Bne of the reasons Iran is &nintereste$ in going f&ll! n&clear , ignore! by ,altA, is that this
/oul! trigger a reciprocal nucleariAation on the part of -au!i Arabia, ranHs main ri#al in the region, an! thus
intro!uce a costly an! structural competition in the Persian Gulf, both !raining the precious economic resources an!
institutionaliAing the ranJ-au!i ri#alry. n!ee!, that is the nub of the problem in ,altAHs article, the fact that it is
sraelJcentric an! o#erloo(s the regional !ynamic that at present e*ists in the Persian Gulf region, by simply ma(ing
a%stract generali;ations a%o&t the %roa$er Mi$$le East.
The! won-t $e+elop n&#es
>eller R )&%ell 1= 6:4>, $Jeffrey Heller an! $$Maayan +ubell /rite for Reuters, 7sraelHs top general says ran unli(ely to ma(e bomb,8
http9::///.reuters.com:article:4534:56:4>:usJisraelJiranJi!"-&R)OKB5C>4534564>, AJ
(Reuters? J sraelHs military chief sai! he $oes not %elie+e Iran will $eci$e to %&il$ an atomic %om% an$
calle$ its lea$ers F+er! rationalM J comments that clashe! /ith Prime Minister &en;amin %etanyahuHs assessment. +ieutenantJGeneral
&enny GantAHs remar(s, in an inter#ie/ publishe! on ,e!nes!ay in the leftJ/ing HaaretA ne/spaper, !re/ little attention in srael on its annual
remembrance !ay for fallen sol!iers, /hen political !iscourse is suspen!e!. &ut they /ill a!! fuel to an internal !ebate on the
prospects of ran /eaponiAing its uranium enrichment program an! the /is!om an! ris(s of any sraeli
military stri(e to try to pre#ent 1ehran from becoming a nuclear po/er. Mran is mo#ing stepJbyJstep to/ar!s a
point /here it /ill be able to !eci!e if it /ants to ma(e a nuclear bomb. t has not !eci!e! yet /hether to go the
e*tra mile,M GantA sai!. &ut, he sai!, ranian -upreme +ea!er Ayatollah Ali 2hamenei coul! opt to pro!uce nuclear /eapons
shoul! be belie#e that ran /oul! not face reprisal. Mn my opinion, he /ill be ma(ing a huge mista(e if he !oes
that an! !onHt thin( he /ill /ant to go the e*tra mile,M GantA sai!. M thin( the ranian lea!ership is comprise! of #ery rational
people. &ut agree that such a capability in the han!s of slamic fun!amentalists, /ho at some moments may ma(e !ifferent calculations, is a
!angerous thing.M srael, belie#e! to ha#e the Mi!!le )astHs only nuclear arsenal, has not rule! out military
action against ran shoul! economic sanctions fail to curb its nuclear program, saying all options /ere on the
table. Bnly last /ee(, in a speech !uring sraelHs Holocaust remembrance !ay, %etanyahu sai!9 M1o!ay, the regime in ran openly calls an!
!etermine!ly /or(s for our !estruction. An! it is fe#erishly /or(ing to !e#elop atomic /eapons to achie#e that goal.M 1ehran !enies see(ing
the bomb, saying it is enriching &rani&m onl! for peacef&l energ! p&rposes an! that its nuclear
program is a threat to no one. -pea(ing on C%% on 1ues!ay, %etanyahu sai! he /oul! not /ant to bet Mthe security of the /orl! on ranHs
rational beha#iorM. A Mmilitant slamic regimeM, he sai!, Mcan put their i!eology before their sur#i#alM. 1he portrayal of ran as irrational J /illing to
attac( srael /ith a nuclear /eapon e#en if it means the !estruction of the slamic Republic in retaliatory stri(es J coul! bolster a case for preJempti#e
bombing to ta(e out its atomic facilities. %etanyahu ha! alrea!y been stung at home by his former spymaster, Meir
Dagan, /ho sai! that such an sraeli stri(e on ran /oul! be a Mri!iculousM i!ea. -hannon 2ile, a nuclear proliferation
e*pert at the -toc(holm nternational Peace Research nstitute, sai! GantAHs !escription of ranian lea!ers as rational /as M@uite an interesting
turnaboutM. MHopefully, it is going to re!uce the incenti#es for any sort of preJempti#e or pre#enti#e military
action, at least for the time being,M 2ile sai!. 1he "nite! -tates has also not rule! out military action as a last resort.
&ut many allies of ,ashington, an! e#en some senior ".-. officials, fear such an attac( coul! ignite a broa!er /ar an! only
temporarily halt ranHs nuclear a!#ances. GantAHs assessment appeare! to be in step /ith the #ie/ of the top
".-. military officer, General Martin Dempsey. He sai! in a C%% inter#ie/ in 'ebruary he belie#e! Iran was a Frational actorF
an$ it wo&l$ %e premat&re to ta#e militar! action against it. sraeli political sources sai! at the time that the remar(s
by Dempsey J /ho also suggeste! sraelHs arme! forces coul! not !eli#er lasting !amage to ranian nuclear sites J ha! angere! %etanyahu. sraeli
Defence Minister )hu! &ara( raise! international concern about a possible sraeli stri(e se#eral months ago
/hen he spo(e about time running out for effecti#e sraeli military action against ranian nuclear sites burie!
!eep un!ergroun!. An! %etanyahu, /hile noting that Iran has ma$e no apparent $ecision to %egin
constr&cting a %om%, has #oice! impatience /ith the pace of nuclear tal(s that began this month bet/een 1ehran an! si* /orl! po/ers, the
first such negotiations in more than a year. M)ither ran ta(es its nuclear program to a ci#ilian footing only, or the /orl!, perhaps us too, /ill ha#e to !o
something. ,eHre closer to the en! of the !iscussions than the mi!!le,M GantA sai!. Ho/e#er, he also sai! international press&re on
Iran Fis %eginning to bear fruit, both on the !iplomatic le#el an! on the economic sanctions le#el M.
No proliferation
Coo# 1= 6:4, $-te#en A. Coo( is the Hasib J. -abbagh -enior 'ello/ for Mi!!le )astern -tu!ies at the Council on 'oreign Relations, 7DonHt 'ear a
%uclear Arms Race in the Mi!!le )ast,8 http9::///.foreignpolicy.com:articles:4534:56:54:!onFtFfearFaFnuclearFarmsFraceUpageY5,5, AJ
1he con#entional /is!om has it /rong9 ranQs !e#elopment of a nuclear /eapon /onQt spur its neighbors to get the bomb.
Bn March 43, HaaretA correspon!ent Ari -ha#it /rote a po/erful opJe! in the %e/ .or( 1imes that began /ith this star( an! stunning claim9 MAn
ranian atom bomb /ill force -au!i Arabia, 1ur(ey, an! )gypt to ac@uire their o/n atom bombs.M n!ee!, it has become a*iomatic among Mi!!le )ast
/atchers, nonproliferation e*perts, sraelHs national security establishment, an! a /i!e array of ".-. go#ernment officials that ranian proliferation /ill
lea! to a nuclear arms race in the Mi!!le )ast. Presi!ent &arac( Bbama himself, in a speech to the American srael Public Affairs Committee (APAC?
last month, sai! that if ran /ent nuclear, it /as Malmost certain that others in the region /oul! feel compelle! to get their o/n nuclear /eapon.M
Multiple nuclear po/ers on a hair trigger in the Mi!!le )ast JJ the most #olatile region on earth, an! one that is un!ergoing massi#e political change JJ is
a nightmare scenario for ".-. an! other security planners, /ho ha#e ne#er before confronte! a challenge of such magnitu!e. &ut than(fully, all the
!ire /arnings about uncontrolle! proliferation are JJ if not e2actl! science fiction ?? f&rther from realit!
than -ha#it an! Bbama in!icate. 1here are #ery goo! reasons for the international community to meet the
challenge that ran represents, but Mi!!le )astern nuclear !ominoes are not one of them. 1heorists of
international politics, /hen pon!ering the !ecisionJma(ing process of states confronte! by nuclearJarme! neighbors, ha#e long raise!
the fears of asymmetric po/er relations an! potential for nuclear blac(mail to e*plain /hy these states /oul! be force! to
proliferate themsel#es. 1his logic /as un!oubte!ly at /or( /hen Pa(istan embar(e! on a nuclear program in 3<P4 to
match n!iaHs nuclear !e#elopment program. .et for all its tribulations, the present?$a! Mi$$le East is not the tin$er%o2
that So&th Asia was in the mi$$le of the =5th cent&r! . Pa(istanHs perception of the threat pose! by
n!ia JJ a state /ith /hich it has fought four /ars since 3<6P JJ is far more ac&te than how either Eg!pt or T&r#e!
percei+e the Iranian challenge . An! /hile ran is closer to home for the -au!is, the security situation in
the Persian Gulf is not as se#ere as the one along the 3,O55Jmile n!oJPa(istani bor!er. Most important to
un!erstan!ing /hy the Mi!!le )ast /ill not %e a ;one of &nrestraine$ proliferation is the significant
$ifference %etween $esiring n&#es an$ the act&al capacit! to ac.&ire them. Bf all three states that -ha#it
mentione!, the one on #irtually e#eryoneHs list for possible nuclear proliferation in response to ran is 1ur(ey. &ut the 1ur(ish Republic is
alrea!y un!er a nuclear umbrella9 An(ara safeguar!s roughly <5 of the "nite! -tatesH finest &=3 gra#ity bombs at ncirli( airbase, near the
city of A!ana. 1hese /eapons are there because 1ur(ey is a %A1B member, an! ,ashingtonHs e*ten!e! !eterrence
can be e*pecte! to at least partially mitigate 1ur(eyHs incenti#es for proliferation. &ut e#en if the 1ur(s /ante!
their o/n bomb, they ha#e almost no capacity to !e#elop nuclear /eapons technology. n!ee!, 1ur(ey !oes not
e#en possess the capability to !eli#er the 65 &=3 bombs at ncirli( that are allocate! to 1ur(ish forces in the e#ent of an attac(,
accor!ing to a report release! by the Carnegie )n!o/ment for nternational Peace. Gi#en the changes in 1ur(eyHs foreign policy an!
its !ri#e for global influence, it is concei#able that it /ill /ant to !e#elop a 1ur(ish #ersion of 'ranceHs force !e
frappe. Ho/e#er, An(ara /oul! literally be starting from scratch9 1ur(ey has no fissile material, cannot mine or enrich
uranium, an! !oes not possess the technology to reprocess spent fuel, all of /hich are re@uire! for nuclear
/eapons !e#elopment. 1his !oes not mean that 1ur(ey is not intereste! in nuclear technology. .et An(araHs efforts, to the e*tent that they e*ist
beyon! the t/o smallJscale facilities in An(ara an! 2ucu(ce(mece, are !irectly relate! to the countryHs pre!icte! energy shortfall resulting from the
combination of a booming economy an! gro/ing population. 1he 1ur(ish go#ernment has announce! plans for ci#ilian nuclear
po/er to pro#i!e a @uarter of 1ur(eyHs electricity nee!s by 4565. &ut e#en this threeJ!eca!e timeline seems
o#erly optimistic gi#en the inchoate nature of 1ur(eyHs nuclear research. 1he )gyptians are /ay ahea! of the
1ur(s in !e#eloping nuclear infrastructure, but !onHt e*pect to see the rise of a nuclear po/er on the %ile
anytime soon. )gyptHs nuclear program is actually ol!er than n!iaHs, an! /as establishe! only three years after srael foun!e!
its Atomic )nergy Commission. 1he )gyptian Atomic )nergy Commission, /hich Gamal Ab!el %asser establishe! in 3<>>, /as
e*clusi#ely !e!icate! to the !e#elopment of peaceful atomic energy, though there /ere suspicions to the contrary. 1he 3<>=
nuclear cooperation agreement /ith the -o#iet "nion transferre! to )gypt a 4Jmega/att light /ater reactor
that only pro!uce! small amounts of plutonium. )#en after Mubara(Hs son Gamal triumphantly !eclare! at the ruling
partyHs 455= con#ention that )gypt /as going to ramp up its nuclear !e#elopment program, it is har! to belie#e
that )gyptians e#er really too( him seriously. Mubara( spent T3=5 million on consultants to tell him /here to
buil! 35 planne! nuclear po/er plants, an! selecte! a location along the Me!iterranean for the first one. &ut
each of the po/er plants comes /ith a price tag of T3.> billion JJ an! this is a country that in the last 3> months
has spent appro*imately T4= billion of its TK= billion foreign currency reser#es ;ust to stay afloat. Bne has to /on!er
about the pun!itsH /arning of an )gyptian bomb9 Ha#e they e#en been to )gypt latelyU f so, they might ha#e a better grasp
of )gyptHs ramshac(le infrastructure an! the !ire state of its economy, neither of /hich can support a nuclear
program. ,hat about -au!i Arabia, then, the -unni po/er that is on the tip of most analystsH tongues /hen it comes to -hiite ran getting the bombU
-au!i Arabia has the cash to ma(e largeJscale in#estments in nuclear technology. n!ee!, the only factor that ma(es
/arnings about -au!i proliferation JJ such as that !eli#ere! by former Ambassa!or the "nite! -tates Prince 1ur(i alJ'aisal last year JJ
e#en remotely cre!ible is the resources the -au!is can muster to buy a nuclear program. .et, /hile Riya!h can
outfit itself /ith nuclear facilities /ith ease, it !oes not ha#e the capacity to manage them. Mohame! 2hile/i, a former
-au!i !iplomat, claims that the (ing!om has been !e#eloping a nuclear arsenal to counter srael since the mi!J
3<P5s JJ but he offers no substantiate! e#i!ence to support these claims. n fact, the country has no nuclear
facilities an! no scientific infrastructure to support them. tHs possible that -au!i Arabia coul! import Pa(istanis to
!o the /or( for them. &ut /hile -au!is feel comfortable /ith Pa(istanis piloting some of their /arplanes an!
;oining their groun! forces, setting up a nuclear program subcontracte! /ith Pa(istani (no/Jho/ JJ or e#en
ac@uiring a nuclear !e#ice !irectly from slamaba! JJ poses a range of political ris(s for the House of -au!. %o
!oubt there /oul! be consi!erable international opprobrium. Certainly ,ashington, /hich implicitly e*ten!s its nuclear umbrella to -au!i Arabia,
/oul! ha#e a ;aun!ice! #ie/ of a nuclear !eal bet/een Riya!h an! slamaba!. Moreo#er, itHs one thing to han! the (eys to an 'J3> o#er
to a foreigner, but letting them run your nuclear program is another matter altogether. 1he concern about
-au!i proliferation stems from fears that the (ing!om /oul! be force! to act if both ran an! srael possesse! a
nuclear arsenal. M,e cannot li#e in a situation /here ran has nuclear /eapons an! /e !onHt,M an unname! -au!i
official !eclare! to the Guar!ian on the si!elines of a meeting bet/een Prince 1ur(i al 'aisal an! %A1B officials in June 4533. MtHs as simple as
that. f ran !e#elops a nuclear /eapon, that /ill be unacceptable to us an! /e /ill ha#e to follo/ suit.M .et gi#en
the fact that the -au!is ha#e #ery little nuclear infrastructure to spea( of, this (in! of statement is little more
than posturing !esigne! to force the ".-. han! on ran. "nli(e similar /arnings by srael, /hich has the
capacity to follo/ through on its threat to attac( ranHs nuclear sites, Riya!hHs rhetoric about ac@uiring nuclear
/eapons is empty. ,hat is amaAing is ho/ many people ta(e the -au!is seriously. f 2hile/i ha! been telling the truth,
no/ /oul! seem li(e a goo! time for the Riya!h to gi#e 1ehran a loo( at /hat the royal family has been hi!ing in the palace basement all these years JJ
but so far, /e ha#e only hear! cric(ets. Despite its flimsiness, it is har! to ignore the utility of the Mi!!le )astHs nuclear
!ominoes theory. 'or those /ho a!#ocate a pre#enti#e military stri(e on ran, it pro+i$es a sweeping
geopolitical rationale for a $angero&s operation. &ut the e#i!ence !oesnHt bear this argument out9 f ,ashington
!eci!es it has no other option than an attac(, it shoul! !o so because ran is a threat in its o/n right, an! not
because it beli#es it /ill th/art ine#itable proliferation in places li(e 1ur(ey, )gypt, an! -au!i Arabia. t /onHt, for the
simple reason that there is no reason to %elie+e these co&ntries represent a proliferation ris# in the
first place.
I'AN ST'IQES
No Stri#es
No Israel stri#e on Iran???e+en if it happens no impact
CNN 11 34:<, 7srael remains unli(ely to stri(e ran,8 http9::globalpublics@uare.blogs.cnn.com:4533:34:5<:israeliJremainsJunli(elyJtoJstri(eJiran:,
AJ
ncrease! international pressure on ran follo/ing last monthQs nternational Atomic )nergy Agency (A)A? report has
re$&ce$ the li#elihoo$ of an! imminent Israeli attac# on Iran7s n&clear program . 1he o#erall ris(
of an attac( occurring before ne*t yearHs ".-. presi!ential #ote remains lo/. Ho/e#er, the rene/e! prospect of
unilateral sraeli action has raise! concerns about the start of a ne/ conflict at a time of heightene! Mi!!le
)ast instability. 1he A)A report containe! the agencyQs strongest /arning to !ate of possible military
!imensions to ranHs nuclear programR it suggeste! that ran is no/ close to Hbrea(outH J the point at /hich it
ac@uires all the s(ills an! parts nee!e! to buil! a nuclear /eapon @uic(ly. 1he A)A suggeste! that ran coul! obtain
the crucial missing component (/eaponsJgra!e, highlyJenriche! uranium? fairly rea!ily through further enrichment of its
lo/Jgra!e stoc(piles. 1he issue of a preJempti#e stri(e returne! to sraelQs !omestic agen!a ahea! of the A)A report.
Defence Minister )hu! &ara( hinte! that srael might nee! to ta(e unilateral actionR me!ia reports suggeste! that he /as /or(ing /ith Prime Minister
&en;amin %etanyahu to /in cabinet bac(ing for this. 1he report !i! little to change the sraeli go#ernmentHs #ie/ of the ran
threat. ,hat the report !i! !o /as fee! into sraeli !ebates about the timing of any action. sraeli proponents of an
early attac( argue that sanctions an! co#ert action ha#e run their course, an! that the /in!o/ of opportunity
for an effecti#e attac( is closing. %etanyahu an! &ara( ha#e both sai! that gi#en recent ranian mo#es (inclu!ing to insulate
facilities an! !efen! them from aerial attac(?, srael may only ha#e months left to carry out an effecti#e attac( on ranian
nuclear facilities. Bpponents of this #ie/ inclu!e former !efence an! intelligence chiefs, /ho argue that containment an! !eterrence
metho!s ha#e not yet been e*hauste!. 'or this group, a stri(e must remain a last resort, gi#en the li(elihoo! that
srael /oul! suffer hea#y blo/bac( /hile gaining possibly no more than a threeJyear setbac( to ranHs nuclear
capabilities. ncrease! international pressure on ran has re!uce! sraelQs sense of isolation. &efore the A)A
report, it sa/ itself as stan!ing alone in its estimates of ranian progress to/ar!s a !eployable nuclear /eapon.
Israel now sees the 4est acting with a greater sense of &rgenc!. Presi!ent Bbama yester!ay reiterate! that
the ".-. /oul! /or( /ith srael an! others to pre#ent ran ac@uiring a nuclear /eapon. 1he ".-., "nite!
2ing!om an! Cana!a respon!e! to the A)A report by intro!ucing ne/ sanctions on ranHs central ban( an! oil in!ustry. 1he )"
a!!e! a further K< people an! 363 companies to its sanctions list, an! is consi!ering an oil embargo. The rein+igorate$ international
campaign has re$&ce$ the li#elihoo$ of an imminent stri#e , strengthening the case of those insi!e
srael fa#oring !elaying action for no/. Despite this, sraelHs lea!ership has continue! to assert the possibility of
ta(ing unilateral action. Bn December >, %etanyahu hinte! that an attac( /as still un!er consi!eration. t remains
possible, but unli(ely, that he /oul! or!er a stri(e before the ".-. presi!ential election, gam%ling on a .&ic#
an$ s&ccessf&l stri#e with limite$ conse.&ences, as happene! after the 455P attac( on a -yrian nuclear site. 1he more
probable scenario is that he /ill !elay a !ecision until after %o#ember ne*t year. At home, %etanyahu faces possible early general
elections in 4534, a social protest mo#ement an! threats to his coalition. 1hus, e#en if he !eci!es against an attac(, he may maintain
his rhetoric about one in or!er to strengthen his !omestic position. 1his coul! bac(fire9 ran is increasingly isolate!
an! preoccupie! /ith its o/n internal struggles. A strategic misstep by players in 1ehran coul! !ramatically
escalate the situation, forcing %etanyahu to carry out his threat ahea! of sche!ule. ,hat is clear is that
!omestic political factors in both srael an! ran /ill ha#e a !ecisi#e influence on the timing of any sraeli
stri(e.
Israel won-t stri#e
INET 1= K:P, $srael ,orl! %e/s, 71hin(Jtan(9 sraeli attac( on ran unli(ely this year,8 http9::///.ynetne/s.com:articles:5,PK65,+J
63<<<5O,55.html, AJ
nternational nstitute for -trategic -tu!ies (--? hea! John Chipman sai! an sraeli attac( against ran /as &nli#el! this
!ear following *S ass&rances this /ee( to srael that it /oul! not rule out military action . 'urthermore, a preJ
empti#e sraeli stri(e coul! bac(fire because it is li(ely to push the 1ehran regime to accelerate its nuclear
ambitions, /arne! the -- !irectorJgeneral at the release of its annual 7Military &alance8 report. 7My ;u!gment is that an sraeli attac( on
ran of an o#ert (in! is unli(ely this year,8 Chipman tol! a ne/s conference on the annual assessment of the global military po/er
balance. Chipman sai! that in tal(s this /ee( in ,ashington, sraeli Prime Minister &en;amin %etanyahu recei#e! an assurance from "-
Presi!ent &arac( Bbama. 1he promise /as 7in effect, that if srael too( "- a!#ice an! !i! not attac( prematurely,
that /hen the threat mature!, the "nite! -tates /oul!, if all other options faile!, use the military option.8 7-o my
;u!gment is that it is unli(ely that there /oul! be an attac( this year.8 He a!!e!9 7,ashington has appeale! for
patience, on the groun!s that ran is not on the #erge of pro!ucing nuclear /eapons, that sraeli air stri(es
/oul! set bac( ranQs program by only a couple of years, an! that sanctions are no/ ha#ing a real impact on
ran.8 ran coul! carry out its threat to close the -trait of HormuA by mining the (ey shipping channel an! using antiJship
missiles, torpe!oes or roc(ets, Chipman sai!. 7,hile these capabilities coul! !isrupt shipping temporarily, the *S an$ its
allies maintain significant maritime assets in the region an$ wo&l$ soon %e a%le to reopen the
strait,8 he sai!.
No militar! action on Iran???elections
/ennett 1= >:36, $John 1. &ennett co#ers national security an! foreign policy for ".-. %e/s W ,orl! Report, 7'ormer Bfficials9 4534 ".-., srael
Attac( on ran "nli(ely,8 http9::///.usne/s.com:ne/s:blogs:!otmil:4534:5>:36:formerJofficialsJ4534JusJisraelJattac(JonJiranJunli(ely, AJ
A ".-. or sraeli military stri(e on ranHs allege! nuclear /eapons facilities is &nli#el! this !ear , but coul! happen
as soon as 453K, say se#eral former senior American officials. Election?!ear politics an$ the time?cons&ming nat&re of
contin&e$ m&ltination tal#s with Tehran will p&sh into ne2t !ear final !eliberations about /hether
to ta(e out facilities /here the !efiant slamic regime is belie#e! to be buil!ing atomic /eapons, the formerJJan!
li(ely futureJJ".-. officials say. M1here is no chance the ".-. /ill ta(e military action before the presi!ential election Din
%o#emberE,M says -tephen Ra!ema(er, assistant secretary of state un!er George ,. &ush no/ /ith the Po!esta Group. A!!ressing the soonest
a ".-. or sraeli stri(e /oul! occur, %icholas &urns, un!ersecretary of state un!er &ush, sai! bluntly9 MtHs 453K.M 1he nature
of !iplomacy is one reason the former officials belie#e a preJempti#e attac( is unli(ely this year. -oJcalle! P>Z3JJthe
fi#e ".%. -ecurity Council permanent members plus GermanyJJtal(s /ith ranian officials (ic(e! off last month in 1ur(eyR a secon! session is set for
ne*t /ee( in &agh!a!. MA serious attempt at !iplomacy shoul! ta(e us into the summer an! the fall,M &urns sai!. Dennis
Ross, a senior ".-. !iplomat an! presi!ential a!#iser un!er &ush, &ill Clinton, an! &arac( Bbama, /arne! that lea!ers in 1ehran Mflimflam us all the
time.M +i(e a professional bas(etball coach /ill use his full allotment of time outs in the final minutes to e*ten! a close game, 1ehranJJli(e %orth
2oreaJJoften uses !iplomatic negotiations as a /ay to !elay military action or the enactment of stiff economic
sanctions.
Iran won-t first stri#e
Capaccio 1= 4:3P, $1ony Capaccio /rites for &loomberg &usiness/ee(, 7ran "nli(ely to -tri(e 'irst, ".-. ntelligence Bfficial -ays,8
http9::///.business/ee(.com:ne/s:4534J54J3P:iranJunli(elyJtoJstri(eJfirstJuJsJintelligenceJofficialJsays.html, AJ
'eb. 3= (&loomberg? JJ 1he ranian military is &nli#el! to intentionall! pro+o#e a conflict /ith the ,est, the
top ".-. military intelligence official sai! to!ay. +ieutenant General Ronal! &urgess, !irector of the Defense ntelligence Agency, sai!
ran probably has the ability to 7temporarily close the -trait of HormuA /ith its na#al forces,8 as some ranian officials
ha#e threatene! to !o if attac(e! or in response to sanctions on its oil e*ports by the ".-. an! )uropean "nion. 7ran has also threatene! to
launch missiles against the "nite! -tates an! our allies in the region in response to an attac(,8 &urgess sai! in testimony prepare! for a hearing
to!ay of the -enate Arme! -er#ices Committee. 7t coul! also employ its terrorist surrogates /orl!/i!e. Ho/e#er, it is &nli#el! to
initiate or intentionall! pro+o#e a conflict or la&nch a preempti+e attac#.8 ranQs Cice Presi!ent Mohamma!
ReAa Rahimi sai! on Dec. 4P that his nation may close the -trait of HormuA, the passage/ay for about oneJfifth of
globally tra!e! oil, if the ".-. an! its allies impose stricter economic sanctions in an effort to halt his countryQs
nuclear research. ".-. officials, inclu!ing Pentagon spo(esman George +ittle, ha#e sai! since that threat that
the! ha+en-t seen an! Iranian mo+es to close the /ater/ay. 7Bur #ie/ on this is that itQs not terribly ne/
an! itQs not terribly impressi#e,8 ".-. -tate Department spo(es/oman Cictoria %ulan! tol! reporters in ,ashington yester!ay. 1he
announcement /as 7hype!8 for a !omestic au!ience, she sai!.
More e+i$ence
C/S 1= 4:3=, 7General9 ran unli(ely to stri(e unless hit,8 http9::///.cbsne/s.com:OK53J454F3=4J>PKP<4PO:generalJiranJunli(elyJtoJstri(eJ
unlessJhit:, AJ
1estifying before the -enate Arme! -er#ices Committee, Defense ntelligence Agency chief +t. Gen. Ronal! &urgess sai! Iran is &nli#el! to
initiate or intentionall! pro+o#e a conflict . His comments came ami! gro/ing international fears that
srael /oul! launch military stri(es against ran to th/art its nuclear ambitions an! counter recent !iplomatic attac(s in
1hailan!, n!ia an! Georgia. srael has accuse! ran of trying to (ill its !iplomats. &urgess an! Director of %ational ntelligence James Clapper sai!
the! $o not %elie+e that Israel has $eci$e$ to stri#e Iran. Bn the other si!e of the Capitol, Defense -ecretary +eon
Panetta sai! intelligence sho/s that ran is continuing to enrich uranium but that 1ehran has not ma!e a
!ecision to procee! /ith !e#eloping a nuclear /eapon. 1he former CA !irector sai! the "nite! -tates is open to
negotiations /ith ran to fin! a !iplomatic solution, but he sai! the ".-. (eeps all options on the table to ensure
that 1ehran !oes not ac@uire a nuclear /eapon. Clapper sai! itHs Mtechnically feasibleM that 1ehran coul! pro!uce a
nuclear /eapon in one or t/o years, if its lea!ers !eci!e to buil! one, Mbut practicall! not li#el! .M 1heir
testimony came as many in Congress are pressing the Bbama a!ministration to ta(e tough steps against ran, @uestioning /hether !iplomatic an!
economic sanctions ha#e ta(en a toll on the regime. 1his issue of ran has unite! Republicans an! Democrats, /ho ha#e clamore! for harsh penalties.
+ast year, the -enate #ote! 355J5 to impose penalties on ranHs Central &an(, an! Presi!ent &arac( Bbama signe! the s/eeping !efense bill containing
the sanctions on Dec. K3. -pea(ing /ith reporters, House -pea(er John &oehner, RJBhio, sai! that for the sa(e of srael an! mo!erate Arab nations,
M,e nee! to ta(e further action.M M,e ga#e the presi!ent a lot of tools to use,M he sai!, referring to the ran -anctions Act.
MHeHs use! some of them, but there are more tools a#ailable to the presi!ent to try to bring ran into the /orl! community.M &oehner sai! it is
Mtotally unacceptableM for ran to !e#elop nuclear /eapons an! sai! he agrees /ith Bbama that M/e shoul! ta(e
no options off the table.M M1here has to be some resolution to this issue,M &oehner tol! reporters. M1his issue is escalating. 1hat causes me great
concern.M
No war an$ it won-t escalate???cooperation an$ no n&clear capa%ilit!
Mel% 1= 4:46, $+eslie H. Gelb9 Presi!ent )meritus an! &oar! -enior 'ello/, 7+eslie H. Gelb9 1he ranJ,ashington ConspiracyU8
http9::///.the!ailybeast.com:articles:4534:54:46:leslieJhJgelbJtheJiranJ/ashingtonJconspiracy.html, AJ
1ehran an! ,ashington ha#e !isco#ere! a surprising common bon!9 to preten! that they might be hea!ing
towar$ serio&s negotiations to c&r% Iran-s n&clear capacit!. ,hatQs more, they are preten!ing for the
same reason9 to war$ off an Israeli attac# on Iran . 1heir mo#es are barely noticeableI#ague !iplomatic pronouncements, opJ
e!s, lots of behin!JtheJscenes orchestration by Russia. 1hey !onQt /ant much attentionI;ust enough to pers&a$e Israel to
wait on militar! action, to buy time. 1he American line is that the economic sanctions are /or(ing an! /ea(ening
1ehranQs /ill. ranQs line is /eQre /illing to compromise, but /eQre not going to be pusho#ers. Bf course, there is no actual collusion
bet/een ran an! the "nite! -tatesR they !onQt trust each other. &ut both ha#e reache! the conclusion that /ar is /orse than
continue! uncertaintyIat least for the time being, as far as the "nite! -tates is concerne!. Russian 'oreign Minister -ergei +a#ro# has been
!ri#ing the process. Mosco/ is one of 1ehranQs last reliable frien!s, /hich ma(es '&ssia agreea%le to Iran , but
suspect in the ,est. %onetheless, +a#ro# has presente! ran /ith an unpublishe!, an! perhaps #ague, stepJbyJstep proposal /ith reciprocity at each
step. 1he i!ea is for both si!es to mo#e gra!ually to/ar! ranQs limiting (not eliminating? its nuclear capacity, plus
e*tensi#e inspections an! the ,estQs lifting economic sanctions against ran plus gi#ing security guarantees. ".-. officials an!
other sources claim a brea(through occurre! in the RussianJranian tal(s last month. 1he big concessions, they sai!, /ere ma!e by 1ehran. Iran
wo&l$ hol$ its &rani&m enrichment to 6 percent well %elow the threshol$ nee$e$ to ma#e
n&clear weapons maintain onl! one &rani&m facilit! an$ allow e2tensi+e inspections. 1hese
!iplomatic mumblings /ere ne#er spelle! out in an official !ocument. nstea!, they /ere follo/e! by a general an! short letter sent from -aee! Jalili,
hea! of ranQs -upreme %ational -ecurity Council. 1he a!!ressee /as )" foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, posting officer for the PJ>Z3 (the fi#e
permanent members of the ".%. -ecurity Council plus Germany?.
Iran co&l$n-t close the Strait???*S militar!
C&eenann 1= 3:K, $Ga#riel Sueenann is a /riter for the sraeli %ational %e/s,
http9::///.israelnationalne/s.com:%e/s:%e/s.asp*:3>3K=O`.15hh@XB6+Cp, 7s ran 'ollo/ing in Sa!!afiHs 'ootstepsU8 AJ
1he -trait of HormuA is K6 miles /i!e at its narro/est point. "n!er international maritime la/ nations may not claim more than
34 miles of coastal /aters as their o/n. Analysts say any !ecision by 1ehran to close the -trait of HormuA to
foreign #essels of any type /oul! li(ely be a calc&late$ $ecision %! Iran aime$ at testing American
will. 1he "nite! -tates 'ifth 'leet, base! in &ahrain, has sai! any attempt to close the -trait of HormuA, through /hich 65L of
the /orl!Hs oil supplies flo/, /oul! be a Man act of war .M n 3<O3 late +ibyan Dictator Muammar Sa!!afi attempte! to claim the
entire Gulf of -i!re as +ibyan national /aters an! began !eploying /arplanes to harass "- /arships con!ucting e*ercises there. 1he
confrontation en!e! /ith t/o +ibyan /arplanes shot !o/n after they fire! a on a "- %a#y 'J36 1omcat. n the spring of 3<O=,
the ".-. %a#y !eploye! three aircraft carrier tas( force groups, "-- America, "-- Coral -ea an! "-- -aratoga from the -i*th
'leet /ith 44> aircraft an! some K5 /arships across Sa!affiQs soJcalle! M+ine of DeathM an! into the !ispute! Gulf of -i!ra. After a !ay of arme! conflict,
the operation /as terminate! after an un(no/n number of human an! materiel losses to the +ibyan si!e an! no losses
to the American si!e. Military analysts note that /hile ran has the capacity to close the -trait of HormuA if unchallenge!, the "nite! -tates has an
as!mmetrical militar! a$+antage that wo&l$ ren$er #eeping the strait close$ impossi%le for
Iran /ere the "- to act. 1he "nite! -tates currently has three carrier gro&ps 0 as /ell as other elements of the 'ifth fleet 0 n
stri(ing range of the -trait of HormuA. t /oul! also li(ely ha#e access to the air%ases of its Gulf Arab allies, as /ell as the
support of their air forces, /ere ran to force the issue. 1he threat to close the strategic /ater/ay to military traffic is only the latest of ranHs
bombastic threats to rattle the /orl! economy by cho(ing off oil supplies.
Militar! will pre+ail
Ento&s R /arnes 1= 4:46, $ADAM )%1B"- an! $$J"+A% ). &AR%)-9 Mi!!le )ast %e/s ,riters for ,-J, 7".-. &ul(s "p ran Defenses,8
http9::online./s;.com:article:-&355536465>4<P5456PPO=56>PP46K=653KPP46655.html, AJ
1he Pentagon is %eefing &p *.S. sea? an$ lan$?%ase$ $efenses in the Persian M&lf to co&nter an!
attempt %! Iran to close the Strait of >orm&; . 1he ".-. military has notifie! Congress of plans to
preposition ne/ mine?$etection an$ clearing e.&ipment an$ e2pan$ s&r+eillance capa%ilities in an!
aroun! the strait, accor!ing to !efense officials briefe! on the re@uests, inclu!ing one submitte! earlier this month. 1he military also /ants to
@uic(ly mo!ify /eapons systems on ships so they coul! be use! against ranian fastJattac( boats, as /ell as shoreJ
launche! cruise missiles, the !efense officials sai!. 1he changes put a spotlight on /hat officials ha#e single! out as potential ".-. shortcomings in the
e#ent of conflict /ith ran. 1he hea! of Central Comman!, Marine Gen. James Mattis, as(e! for the e@uipment upgra!es after
re#ie/s by /ar planners last spring an! fall e*pose! MgapsM in ".-. !efense capabilities an! military prepare!ness shoul! 1ehran close the -trait
of HormuA, officials sai!. 1he Central Comman! re#ie/s, in particular, ha#e fuele! concerns about the ".-. militaryHs
ability to respon! s/iftly shoul! ran mine the strait, through /hich nearly 45L of the /orl!Hs tra!e! oil passes. n a!!ition, ".-.
specialJoperations teams statione! in the "nite! Arab )mirates /oul! ta(e part in any military action in the strait shoul! ran attempt to close it,
!efense officials sai!. A military official sai! these forces ha#e been /or(ing to train elite local forces in Gulf nations
inclu!ing the ".A.)., &ahrain an! 2u/ait, but a!!e!9 M1hey /oul! be use! in the e#ent of acti#e operations.M Accor!ing to !efense
officials, the Pentagon submitte! a re@uest to Congress on 'eb. P on behalf of Central Comman! see(ing to reallocate K155
million in $efense f&n$ing to Mbri!ge nearJterm capability gapsM in the Persian Gulf. 1he ne/ money comes on top of changes ma!e last
summer that pro#i!e! Central Comman! /ith about T455 million for a!!itional upgra!es, some of /hich coul! be use! in areas outsi!e the Persian
Gulf, !efense officials sai!. 1he earlier re@uest, /hich inclu!e! money for a torpe!o !efense system, airborne antimine /eapons an! ne/ cyberJ/eapons,
/as ma!e by !efense officials an! bac(e! /ithout fanfare by Congress. 1hat re@uest also inclu!e! a!!itional !eployments of the -ea'o* un!er/ater
!rone, /hich is launche! from a helicopter an! uses a /arhea! to !estroy mines. 1he system /as !eeme! Man urgent operational nee!M by the ".-. 'ifth
'leet, accor!ing to %a#y officials. 1he Pentagon an! other ".-. agencies generally submit such reprogramming re@uests /hen they canHt /ait until the
ne*t fiscal year. 1he Pentagon starte! ma(ing some a!;ustments as early as a year ago, but those !i!nHt re@uire reprogramming. 1he Pentagon
tol! Congress that some of the ne/ money /oul! be use! to mo!ify e*isting /eapons systems to be use!
against sea%orne threats in the Persian Gulf an!, specifically, the -trait of HormuA. Antitan( /eapons are being
reconfigure! for use against s/arms of these boats that coul! threaten ".-. /arships, the Pentagon tol! Congress.
-imilarly, rapi!Jfire machine guns !esigne! to shoot !o/n missiles are being teste! for use against small boats. Pentagon /ar
planners belie#e the a!!ition of smallerJcaliber guns /oul! @uic(ly ma(e ".-. !estroyers, /hich /ere !esigne! mainly to fight other
large ships, more effecti+e against the Iranian craft . M,e are using capabilities /e alrea!y ha#e in a
!ifferent /ay,M a senior !efense official sai!.
Na+! will cr&sh them
<ohnson 1= 4:36, $Robert Johnson is a /riter for the &usiness nsi!er specialiAing in the Military W Defense, 7ran Has Prepare! -uici!e &oats
An! s -ha!o/ing 1he "-- Abraham +incoln 1hrough 1he -trait Bf HormuA,8 http9::articles.businessinsi!er.com:4534J54J
36:ne/s:K35>P>P6F3Fsuici!eJattac(JhormuAJstrait, AJ
tHs getting !ifficult to !istinguish bet/een bluster, rhetoric, an! potential conflict in the -trait of HormuA anymore. Perhaps the only thing thatHs
certain is tensions continue to climb, an! there appears to be no resolution in sight. 1he &&CHs Jonathan &eale /as aboar!
the ".-. aircraft carrier Abraham +incoln to!ay as it ma!e its /ay through the -trait of HormuA an! reports that ranian
#essels s(irte! /ithin t/o miles of the con#oy. 1he +incoln is part of Carrier -tri(e Group %ine, that consists of the flagship "-- Abraham
+incoln, embar(e! Carrier Air ,ing 4, -an DiegoJbase! gui!e!Jmissile cruiser "-- Cape -t. George, an! the embar(e! Destroyer -@ua!ron <. ,hile itHs
unli(ely the con#oy /as in any imme!iate !anger, the announcement by the comman!er of ".-. na#al forces in the Persian Gulf
this /ee( must ha#e been on most sailorsH min!s. -pea(ing at a press conference -un!ay, Cice A!m. Mar( . 'o* sai! that ran has
increase! its number of subs an! attac( craft in the area, an! pac(e! small attac( boats /ith e*plosi#es for use in
suici!e attac(s. t /as a suici!e attac( from a small craft that ble/ a hole in the "-- Cole at a .emeni port in 4555, (illing 3P
American sailors. 1hough the nternational nstitute 'or -trategic -tu!ies (--? bac(s up 'o*Hs comments, the &ritish thin(Jtan( says there is no
wa! Iran can act&all! close the Strait of >orm&; . ,ith ;ust si2 poorl! e.&ippe$ cor+ettes , --
says itHs nearl! impossi%le for the Iranians to compete with the *.S. Na+! . 1heir reports says that in the e#ent of
attac(, ho/e#er, ran /oul! employ mines, torpe!oes, roc(ets an! antiJship missiles /hile trying to a#oi! !irect conflict /ith ".-. ships.
More e+i$ence
>&ff Post 11 34:3O, 7ran9 -trait Bf HormuA, 2ey Bil -upply Route, )asily Close!,8 http9::///.huffingtonpost.com:4533:34:4O:iranJstraitJofJ
hormuAFnF33P4K43.html, AJ
M1his is not ;ust an important issue for security an! stability in the region, but is an economic lifeline for countries
in the Gulf, to inclu!e ran,M Pentagon press secretary George +ittle sai!. Mnterference /ith the transit or passage of #essels
through the -trait of HormuA /ill not be tolerate!.M -eparately, &ahrainJbase! ".-. %a#y >th 'leet spo(es/oman +t. Rebecca
Rebarich sai! the Na+! is Falwa!s rea$! to co&nter male+olent actions to ensure free!om of na#igation. M
Rebarich !ecline! to say /hether the ".-. force ha! a$8&ste$ its presence or rea$iness in the Gulf in response to
ranHs comments, but sai! the Na+! Fmaintains a ro%&st presence in the region to $eter or co&nter
$esta%ili;ing acti+ities while safeg&ar$ing the region7s +ital lin#s to the international
comm&nit!.M
Q('EAN 4A'
No 4ar
No Qorean war
Asian Correspon$ent 15 34:<, 71ensions high in 2oreas, but allJout /ar unli(ely,8 http9::asiancorrespon!ent.com:6K6<6:tensionsJhighJ
inJ(oreasJbutJallJoutJ/arJunli(ely:, AJ
1/o /ee(s after %orth 2orea shelle! a -outh 2orean islan!, the ri#als are still tra!ing threats of attac(s an! counterattac(s. 1ensions remain at their
highest in more than a !eca!e, an! though neither si!e is bac(ing !o/n, allJout /ar is unli(ely. 71he fact that both %orth an! -outh are ha#ing
to pro#e themsel#es militarily an! con!uct li#eJfire tests #ery close to each otherQs bor!ers ;ust increases the li(elihoo! that there coul! be an errant shell
or ;ust a /ar of ner#es that coul! lea! to crossing the line once again,8 sai! Peter &ec(, a research fello/ at 2eio "ni#ersity in 1o(yo. 7%o/ that the
%orth has !one it once, itQs not going to surprise me if they !o it again.8 -till, the $ooms$a! scenario of all?
o&t war across the worl$-s most militari;e$ %or$er is &nli#el! , he an! other e*perts sai!. -outh
2oreaQs mo#es to bolster its military rea!iness since the attac( re!uce the ris( of the outbrea( of a fullJfle!ge!
/ar, sai! Daniel Pin(ston, a -eoulJbase! analyst /ith the nternational Crisis Group thin( tan(. %orth 2orea is rich in manpo/er but
poor in har!/are an!, he sai!, it (no/s that 7 f&rther pro+ocation will come at a cost .8 1he %orthQs game
has al/ays been to pro#o(e ;ust enough to be able to e*tract /hat it nee!s from the -outh an! the rest of the
/orl!. -ince 455K, P!ong!ang ha$ %een engage$ in negotiations /ith fi#e other nations to !ismantle its
nuclear program in e*change for fuel oil an! other concessions. After bac(ing out of that !eal last year, %orth 2orea I
struggling to fee! its people, slappe! /ith sanctions I has been loo(ing for a /ay bac( to the negotiating table. -eoul an!
,ashington, ho/e#er, say gi#ing into PyongyangQs ploys /oul! only re/ar! ba! beha#ior an! ha#e resiste!
restarting the tal(s. Complicating matters is that %orth 2orea is han!ling a sensiti#e transfer of po/er from
lea!er 2im Jong l to his young, unteste! son. ,hile that uncertainly may ma(e %orth 2orea more
unpre!ictable, it also means it cra+es sta%ilit! more than e#er .
MIDD)E EAST INSTA/I)ITI
Ine+ita%le
Mi$$le east war is ine+ita%le for fo&r reasons?lac# of hope go+ernment policies power +ac&&m
an$ no inter+ention
Perthes 15 (Col(er Perthes, Chairman an! Director of -tiftung ,issenschaft un! Politi(, the German
nstitute for nternational an! -ecurity Affairs, &erlin 7s Mi!!le )ast ,ar ne#itableU8
P:4O:35httpHEEwww.pro8ect?s!n$icate.orgEcommentar!EperthesDEEnglishE"EE CM
'ua! -iniora, +ebanonQs former prime minister, is a thoughtful man /ith !eep e*perience in Mi!!le )astern
politics. -o /hen he spea(s of 7trains /ith no !ri#ers that seem to be on a collision course,8 as he recently !i! at a pri#ate meeting in &erlin, intereste!
parties shoul! probably prepare for un/ante! !e#elopments. Bf course, no one in the region is calling for /ar. &ut a preJ/ar moo! is
gro/ing. 'our factors, none of them ne/ but each !estabiliAing on its o/n, are compoun!ing one another9 lac(
of hope, !angerous go#ernmental policies, a regional po/er #acuum, an! the absence of acti#e e*ternal
me!iation. t may be reassuring that most Palestinians an! sraelis still fa#or a t/oJstate solution. t is less reassuring that most sraelis an! a large
ma;ority of Palestinians ha#e lost hope that such a solution /ill e#er materialiAe. A!! to this that by -eptember, the partial
settlement freeAe, /hich sraelQs go#ernment has accepte!, /ill e*pire, an! that the perio! set by the Arab
+eague for the soJcalle! pro*imity tal(s bet/een the Palestinians an! sraelis, /hich ha#e not seriously begun,
/ill also be o#er. -erious !irect negotiations are unli(ely to begin /ithout a freeAe on settlement buil!ing, /hich sraelQs Prime Minister %etanyahu
is unli(ely to announce or implement, gi#en resistance /ithin his coalition go#ernment. -yria, /hich until the en! of 455O /as engage! in its o/n
1ur(ishJme!iate! pro*imity tal(s /ith srael, !oes not e*pect a resumption of tal(s /ith srael anytime soon. 1his may be one reason /hy -yrian
Presi!ent &ashar alJAssa! mentions /ar as an option, as he recently !i! in Ma!ri!.Moreo#er, sraelis an! people close to HeAbollah in +ebanon are
tal(ing about 7another roun!,8 /hile many pun!its in the Mi!!le )ast belie#e that a limite! /ar coul! unbloc( a stagnant political situation. 1heir point
of reference is the 3<PK /ar, /hich helpe! to bring about peace bet/een )gypt an! srael. &ut the /ars that follo/e!, an! the latest /ars in the region 0
the +ebanon /ar of 455= an! the GaAa /ar of December 455O:January 455< 0 !o not support this rec(less theory. Iran whose infl&ence
in the )e+ant is not so m&ch the ca&se of &nresol+e$ pro%lems in the Mi$$le East as the res&lt
of them contin&es to $ef! the imposition of new sanctions %! the *nite$ Nations Sec&rit! Co&ncil.
Iranian r&lers ha+e as little tr&st in the 4est as the 4est has in them an$ the! contin&e to
increase international s&spicion %! their wor$s an$ actions. 'epeate$ calls %! ranian Presi!ent
Mahmou! Ahma$ine8a$ a%o&t Israel-s e+ent&al $isappearance pla! into the han$s of those in Israel
who arg&e that Iran-s n&clear program m&st %e en$e$ militaril!.Some of the Mi$$le East-s most
important pla!ers are increasing the ris#s of confrontation %eca&se the! ha+e either lost a
proper feeling for their regional an$ international en+ironment or see# to increase their own
political power thro&gh pro+ocation an$ %rin#manship. %etanyahuQs shortJsighte! reluctance to gi#e up settlements
an! occupie! territory threatens sraelQs longJterm interest to reach a fair settlement /ith the Palestinians. n its !ea!ly assault on the GaAa flotilla in
May, %etanyahuQs go#ernment !emonstrate! a (in! of political autism in its inability to realiAe that e#en sraelQs best frien!s no longer /ish to accept the
humanitarian conse@uences of the GaAa bloc(a!e. In the Ara% worl$ there is c&rrentl! no $ominant power a%le to
pro8ect sta%ilit! %e!on$ its own national %or$ers. t /ill ta(e time before ra@ /ill play a regional role again. 1he -au!i
reform agen!a mainly concerns !omestic issues. )gyptQs political stagnation has re!uce! its regional influence. Satar o#erJestimates its o/n
strength.The onl! regional power in the Mi$$le East to$a! is Iran %&t it is not a sta%ili;ing force. 1he
Arab states are a/are of this. Much as they !isli(e it, they are also fearful of a /ar bet/een srael or the "nite! -tates an! ran, (no/ing that they /oul!
ha#e little influence o#er e#ents. n!ee!, intraJregional !ynamics in the Mi!!le )ast to!ay are !ri#en by three states, none of /hich is Arab9 srael, ran,
an!, increasingly, 1ur(ey. In recent !ears T&r#e! trie$ to me$iate %etween Israel an$ S!ria Israel an$
>amas opposing factions in )e%anon an$ latel! %etween Iran an$ the fi+e permanent
mem%ers of the *N Sec&rit! Co&ncil pl&s Merman!.T&r#e! sho&l$ contin&e to pla! this role.
/&t the T&r#ish go+ernment has increasingl! allowe$ itself to %e $ragge$ into Mi$$le East
conflicts rather than f&nctioning as an honest %ro#er.The (%ama a$ministration has ha$ a
strong start with respect to the Mi$$le East. /&t a !ear an$ a half after his ina&g&ration
(%ama-s Ao&tstretche$ han$B to Iran has t&rne$ into a fist an$ his attempts to enco&rage
Israeli?Palestinian negotiations seem st&c#. Domestic iss&es are li#el! to preocc&p! (%ama an$
his team at least &p &ntil the mi$?term elections this No+em%er th&s precl&$ing acti+e
$iplomac! $&ring the critical months ahea$. An$ the E&ropean *nionT There has not %een
m&ch acti+e crisis?pre+ention $iplomac! from /r&ssels or from E&rope-s national capitals.
None of the lea$ing E* states- foreign ministers seems e+en to ha+e ma$e an attempt to
me$iate %etween E&rope-s two closest Me$iterranean partners Israel an$ T&r#e!.1/enty years ago, in
the /ee(s that prece!e! ra@Qs in#asion of 2u/ait, many obser#ers sa/ signs of a looming crisis. &ut Arab an! ,estern players someho/ manage! to
con#ince themsel#es that things /oul! not get out of han!.That crisis an$ others %efore an$ since showe$ that
tensions in the Mi$$le East rarel! $issol+e with the passage of time. Sometimes the! are
resol+e$ thro&gh acti+e $iplomatic inter+ention %! regional or international pla!ers. An$
sometimes the! are release$ +iolentl!.
Mi$$le Eastern co&ntries ha+e incenti+es to not escalate insta%ilit!
Malone! an$ Ta#e!h L D-usan Maloney an! Ray 1a(eyh, =:4O:455P. -enior fello/ for Mi!!le )ast Policy at
the -aban Center for Mi!!le )ast -tu!ies at the &roo(ings nstitution an! senior fello/ for Mi!!le )ast -tu!ies
at the Council on 'oreign Relations. 7,hy the ra@ ,ar ,onQt )ngulf the Mi!east,8 nternational Heral!
1ribune, http9::///.broo(ings.e!u:opinions:455P:5=4Oira@Fmaloney.asp*E.EE CM
.et, the Sa&$is Iranians <or$anians S!rians an$ others are +er! &nli#el! to go to war either to
protect their o/n sect or ethnic group or to pre#ent one country from gaining the upper han! in ra@. 1he reasons are fairly straightfor/ar!. 'irst,
Mi$$le Eastern lea$ers, li(e politicians e#ery/here, are primaril! intereste$ in one thing9 selfJpreser#ation.
Committing forces to ra@ is an inherently ris(y proposition, /hich, if the conflict /ent ba!ly, coul! threaten
!omestic political stability. Moreo#er, most Arab armies are geare! to/ar! regime protection rather than
pro;ecting po/er an! thus ha#e little capability for sen!ing troops to ra@. -econ!, there is cause for concern
about the soJcalle! blo/bac( scenario in /hich ;iha!is returning from ra@ !estabiliAe their home countries,
plunging the region into conflict. Mi!!le )astern lea!ers are preparing for this possibility. *nli#e in the 1PP5s /hen Arab fighters in the
Afghan ;iha! against the -o#iet "nion returne! to Algeria, )gypt an! -au!i Arabia an! became a source of instability, Ara% sec&rit! ser+ices
are %eing +igilant a%o&t who is coming in an$ going from their co&ntries. n the last month, the -au!i
go#ernment has arreste! appro*imately 455 people suspecte! of ties /ith militants. Riya!h is also buil!ing a P55 (ilometer /all along part of its frontier
/ith ra@ in or!er to (eep militants out of the (ing!om. 'inally, there is no prece$ent for Ara% lea$ers to commit forces
to conflicts in which the! are not $irectl! in+ol+e$. 1he ra@is an! the -au!is !i! sen! small contingents to fight the
sraelis in 3<6O an! 3<=P, but they /ere either ineffecti#e or ne#er ma!e it. n the 3<P5s an! 3<O5s, Arab countries other than -yria, /hich ha! a
compelling interest in establishing its hegemony o#er +ebanon, ne#er committe! forces either to protect the +ebanese from the sraelis or from other
+ebanese. The ci+il war in )e%anon was regar$e$ as someone else7s fight. n!ee!, this is the /ay many lea!ers #ie/
the current situation in ra@. 1o Cairo, Amman an! Riya!h, the situation in ra@ is /orrisome, but in the en! it is an ra@i an! American fight. As far as
ranian mullahs are concerne!, they ha#e long preferre! to press their interests through pro*ies as oppose! to !irect engagement. At a time /hen 1ehran
has access an! influence o#er po/erful -hiite militias, a massi#e crossJbor!er incursion is both unli(ely an! unnecessary. -o ra@is /ill remain loc(e! in
a sectarian an! ethnic struggle that outsi!e po/ers may abet, but /ill remain /ithin the bor!ers of ra@. The Mi$$le East is a region
%oth prone an$ acc&stome$ to ci+il wars. /&t gi+en its e2perience with am%ig&o&s conflicts the
region has also $e+elope$ an int&iti+e a%ilit! to contain its ci+il strife an$ pre+ent local conflicts
from en+eloping the entire Mi$$le East.
NAN(TEC>
No Impact
Scientific cooperation is ine+ita%le an$ sol+es nanotech
Potocni# 5D (JaneA, )uropean Commissioner for -cience an! Research, 3AC Article,
K:P:455=. 7&et/een cooperation an! Competition J -cience an! Research as a 1ransatlantic
&ri!ge &uil!er8, http9::///.iterfan.org:in!e*.phpU
optionYcomFcontentWtas(Y#ie/Wi!Y3K<Wtemi!Y4?::CG
Cooperation shortens the path lea!ing from science to inno#ation an! from (no/le!ge to solutions in areas such as
nanotech, biotech, en#ironment, climate an! cybersecurity. n all these areas, an! in many more, /e share information, (no/le!ge,
practices an! results. n nanotechnology, for e*ample, the Commission /or(s together /ith the %ational
-cience 'oun!ation to e*change information an! organise seminars an! /or(shops. Coor!inate! calls for ;oint )"J"-
research proposals ha#e been launche! since 3<<<, to !ra/ on the best e*pertise on both si!e of the Atlantic. ,e /or( together because /e
realise that it is in the interest of both )urope an! the "- to !o so. An! often, of course, it is also in the interest of many other countries
aroun! the globe, /hether they are !irectly in#ol#e! in the cooperation, or not. &ut 0 of course 0 /e also cooperate simply because that is
/hat scientists !o. %aturally, spontaneously an!, often, effecti#ely. -cientists are, by the mere nature of their /or(, mobile an! out/ar! loo(ing.
Research !oes not (no/ of any national frontiers an! scientists simply /or( /here an! /ith those that offer
the best opportunities. &ut perhaps e#en more important for our transatlantic lin(s is the !ynamism an! creati#ity that competition brings.
Competition is part of our natural !isposition as social in!i#i!uals, an! also an imperati#e of the societies /e li#e in. ,hether itQs the mar(et share of our
companies that /e ha#e at heart, or the /ellbeing of our people, or the ne*t brea(through in science an! technology, or J in!ee!, all of the abo#e J
competition is the name of the game. ,e compete because /e (no/ that to!ayQs !isco#eries /ill most probably un!erpin tomorro/Qs economic
achie#ements. An! /e compete because 0 in the "- as much as in )urope 0 /e !ra/ healthy stimuli an! encouragement from comparing our respecti#e
figures. %umbers of science an! engineering gra!uates, researchers as percentage of the /or(force, figures for RWD in#estment, numbers of publications
an! patents an! so on... 1his mi* of cooperation an! competition is a (ey engine of progress. 1hatQs ho/ /e !isco#er
an! a!#ance. Ho/ /e set an! reach ob;ecti#es, impro#e performances an! achie#e results. &y fin!ing the right mi* or the right balance bet/een
cooperation an! competition. &e it bet/een in!i#i!uals, organisations, economies or societies. An! isnQt this also /hat scientists spontaneously !oU 1hey
compete for e*cellence, for recognition, for results an! for fun!s. 1hey stri#e to be the first to publish or to patent. &ut they also learn from one
another. 1hey compare an! e*change an! they ;oin forces aiming for common achie#ements. 1he same is true for
companies an! other organisations, for /hich a balance! mi* of cooperation an! competition is often the (ey to performance an! achie#ement.
NA3A) P(4E'
Alt Ca&se
De%t is a massi+e alt ca&se
/enci+enga 15 DJim &enci#enga is a former teacher an! Monitor staffer, 7,ill "- na#al po/er
sin(U8http9::///.csmonitor.com:Commentary:Bpinion:4535:354>:,illJ"-Jna#alJpo/erJsin(,
1hatHs a mista(e, because our commitment to na#al po/er to!ay /ill affect AmericaHs stan!ing in the /orl! 0 an! its ability to contain an
increasingly aggressi#e China 0 for the ne*t half century. .et this commitment is on sha#! gro&n$ gi#en the outJofJcontrol national $e%t.
An! the ruling party has fe/ han!s on !ec( to meet this national challenge. Bne gauge of a great po/erHs military stature is the rea!iness of its fleet
#ersus that of its li(ely foes. Deterring an aggressi#e China Accor!ing to a 455< Pentagon report, China has an estimate! 4=5 na#al #essels, all
concentrate! in )ast Asia. 1he "nite! -tates has 4OO battleJforce ships /ith 33 carrier tas( forces an! !oAens of nuclear submarines as the cro/n ;e/els.
1he "- fleet patrols /orl!/i!e. ChinaHs fleet has been concentrate! in its home /aters, but its range is rapi!ly e*ten!ing to as far as the Mi!!le )ast.
MChina see(s !omination of the -outh China -ea to be the !ominant po/er in much of the )astern Hemisphere,M !efense e*pert Robert D. 2aplan has
/ritten. As Mr. 2aplan notes, the -outh China -ea is a #ital route for much of AsiaHs commercial traffic an! energy nee!s. 1he "- an! other nations
consi!er it an international passage/ay. China calls it a Mcore interest.M 1o maintain na#al strength, re!uce !ebt 1o (eep the "-
blueJ/ater fleet the best in the /orl! costs billions. A debtor nation eventually cuts defense spending, an!
bigJtic(et items li(e ne/ ships are the first to go. 1hat is /hy maritime !efense is the sleeper issue of these elections. 1he party that
re!uces national !ebt can maintain na#al strength. 1he party that !oesnHt allo/s "- na#al prominence to sin(.
Instit&tional alt ca&ses o&tweigh
Cropse! 15 J -enior 'ello/ at the Hu!son nstitute, ,ashington, DC He ser#e! as %a#al Bfficer from 3<O> to 4556 an! as !eputy senior un!er
secretary of the %a#y in the a!ministrations of Ronal! Reagan an! George H. &ush. (-eth, 71he "- %a#y in Distress,8 -trategic Analysis Col. K6 %o. 3,
January 4535, pgs K>J6>, http9::///.hu!son.org:files:publications:CropseyF"-F%a#yFnFDistress.p!f?::aberg
n 'ebruary 455< , the 1icon!erogaJclass gui!e! missile cruiser U... !ort Royal ran agroun! about a half mile south of
the Honolulu airport. 1he %a#yQs in#estigation foun! that the shipQs na#igational gear /as bro(en an! that the
shipQs fathometer /asnQt functioning. n simple terms the bri!ge !i!nQt (no/ /here the ship /as. 1he in#estigation
subse@uently !isco#ere! that the comman!ing officer /as e*hauste!, sleepJ!epri#e!, an! that sailors /ho /ere
nominally assigne! to stan! /atch against such inci!ents /ere assigne! else/here in the ship to co#er manning
shortages. 1/o months later the %a#yQs ironJ/ille! &oar! of nspection an! -ur#ey !etermine! that problems /ith corrosion, steering,
surface shipsQ firefighting systems, an! anchoring /ere /i!esprea! throughout the %a#y. As(e! by "efense #ews to
comment on these fin!ings fi#e former comman!ing officers agree! that smaller cre/s, re!uce! bu!gets, an! fe/er realJlife
training opportunities for o#erJ/or(e! cre/s /ere important causes for this catalogue of affliction. tQs har!ly a
surprise. 1he %a#y reporte! last year that 33,K55 sailors /ere supporting groun! forces in ra@ an! Afghanistan. Re!uce! bu!gets, efforts to
sa#e money by cutting the siAe of cre/s, schemes to ta(e up the slac( /ith shore ser#ices, an! all manner of
[laborJsa#ingQ !e#ices parallel an! reflect the %a#yQs increasingly !istresse! fortunes since the en! of the Col! ,ar. 1he "- %a#y has not been as
small as it is to!ay since the a!ministration of ,illiam Ho/ar! 1aft /hen the Royal %a#y fille! the international role that AmericaQs na#al forces
e#entually inherite! an! currently possess. As suggeste! by the past t/o !eca!es of !eclining na#y procurement, the rising cost of ships, hints from the
PentagonQs Sua!rennial Re#ie/ no/ un!er/ay that pre#ious goals for fleet siAe are open to @uestion, an! the publicQs focus on the nationQs lan! /ars in
the Mi!!le )ast, chances are that "- na#al shrin(age /ill continue. 1he li(elihoo! of a much !iminishe! na#y coinci!es in time
/ith e#ery current pre!iction of large global strategic change in the foreseeable future. Among %ational ntelligence
Council estimates, Joint Bperating )n#ironment forecasts, the PentagonQs Bffice of %et AssessmentQs stu!ies, the "2 Defence MinistryQs De#elopment,
Concepts, an! Doctrine Centre as /ell as similar pre!icti#e efforts un!erta(en by 'rench an! German national security e*perts, there is a general
consensus. Proliferation, resource scarcity, en#ironmental change, the emergence of ne/ international po/er
centres inclu!ing nonJstate actors, significant changes in relati#e "- po/er, faile! states, an! !emographic
change point to an increasingly unstable future an! challenging international strategic en#ironment. 1he common
!enominator in managing these problems is maritime po/er9 force that can be applie! to the shore from the sea, use! to protect against missileJborne as
/ell as stealthier oceanJborne ,eapons of Mass Destruction (,MD?, marshale! to alle#iate the causes of massi#e immigration, an! !isplaye! to
reassure allies an! !issua!e enemies. ,ars in ra@ an! Afghanistan ha#e suc(e! the o*ygen out of any serious effort to
un!erstan! the connection bet/een the large changes that strategic planners see in the future, AmericansQ
e*pectations that they /ill retain their ability to /iel! global influence, the %a#yQs role in maintaining such
influence, an! the "- fleetQs slo/ e#anescence. %o attempt to connect fleet shape an! siAe to the unfol!ing strategic en#ironment e*ists
as a referent for public !ebate. n!ee!, ci#ilian an! military lea!ership maintains in the face of gro/ing !eman! for ships
to !efen! against relati#ely lo/ threats 0 li(e piracy 0 as /ell as #ery !angerous ones 0 li(e the possibility of smuggle! ,MD reaching our
shores 0 that [capabilityQ rather than number of ships is (ey to accurately measuring our na#al po/er. ,ith #ery fe/ e*ceptions political
lea!ers in both parties !o not as( fun!amental @uestions. ,hat role !oes na#al po/er ha#e in preser#ing
AmericaQs position as the /orl!Qs great po/er in the mi!!le of a flui! an! troubling strategic en#ironmentU )#en
/ith Congress an! a!ministration support ho/ can the nationQs current maritime strategy achie#e its o/n goals, to say nothing of the global ob;ecti#es
that 1heo!ore Roose#elt sa/ so clearlyU 1he cooperati#e arrangements /ith foreign na#ies en#isione! by the %a#yQs current maritime strategy may
perhaps mo!erate problems of failing states an! terror. &ut is this enough to manage other challengesU s the %a#yQs current organiAation capable of
a!!ressing both con#entional an! asymmetric threatsU Can to!ayQs highly structure! an! infle*ible system for !esigning an! buil!ing ships a!apt
@uic(ly an! costJeffecti#ely to changes in the strategic en#ironmentU ,hat, for e*ample, !o globaliAation, the gro/ing !epen!ence
of the "nite! -tates on seaJborne transit for strategic resources an! minerals, an! the li(elihoo! of more !islocations such as
continue from -omali piracy mean for the future of "- national securityU
M&ltiple alt ca&ses , lea$ership contention s&%marine warfare an$ *A3s
/ennett 15 0 (John 1. 7Gates9 ".-. Must Rethin( )*pensi#e ,arships, Carriers, )'C8 May K, 4535
http9::///.!efensene/s.com:article:45355>5K:D)'-)C15K:>5K5K54:GatesJ"J-JMustJRethin(J)*pensi#eJ,arshipsJCarriersJ)'C?::aberg
Pentagon an! na#al officials must !eci!e /hether to (eep buying multibillionJ!ollar /arships, since the %a#yHs
shipbuil!ing bu!get is unli(ely to gro/ ami! economic uncertainty an! t/o /ars, ".-. Defense -ecretary Robert Gates sai! May K. Gates raise!
eyebro/s at a %a#y +eagueJsponsore! conference in %ational Harbor, M!., by @uestioning, among other things, /hether the
"nite! -tates /ill nee! 33 carrier stri(e groups /hen no other nation has more than one. MAt the en! of the !ay, /e
ha#e to as( /hether the nation can really affor! a %a#y that relies on TK DbillionE to T= billion !estroyers, TP billion
submarines an! T33 billion carriers.M the secretary sai!. MMar( my /or!s, the %a#y an! Marine Corps must be /illing to
ree*amine an! @uestion basic assumptions in light of e#ol#ing technologies, ne/ threats an! bu!get realities.
M,e simply cannot affor! to perpetuate a status @uo that heaps more an! more e*pensi#e technologies onto fe/er
an! fe/er platforms J thereby ris(ing a situation /here some of our greatest capital e*pen!itures go to/ar! /eapons an!
ships that coul! potentially become /asting assets,M he sai! to a silent luncheon cro/!. Gates sent a shot across the bo/ of the Marine
CorpsH trouble! )*pe!itionary 'ighting Cehicle ()'C? program, saying it is time to Mta(e a har! loo(M at the (in! of platform nee!e! for shipJtoJshore
maneu#ers, Man! ho/ many.M He also sai! Pentagon officials must @uestion /here the ".-. military might be or!ere! to carry out an amphibious
insertion un!er enemy fire. Gates note! that the ".-. %a#y is the /orl!Hs bestJe@uippe! an! most lethal, an! can position
more fighter ;ets at sea than the Mrest of the /orl! combine!.M &ut he also sai! that no other nation is intereste!
in matching the %a#y in a shipJforJship arms race. nstea!, foes J big an! small ali(e J /ill attempt to blunt
AmericaHs atJsea a!#antage Mat the lo/ en!,M using things li(e longJrange ballistic cruise missiles. M1he ".-. /ill
also face increasingly sophisticate! un!er/ater combat systems J inclu!ing numbers of stealthy subs J all of
/hich coul! en! the operational sanctuary our %a#y has en;oye! in the ,estern Pacific for the better part of si* !eca!es,M Gates sai!.
1hese ne/ tactics an! systems possesse! by potential foes mean ".-. na#al forces must Mha#e the /i!est fle*ibilityM to !eal /ith a /i!e #ariety of enemy
tactics an! potential (in!s of conflicts, Gates sai!. 1his Maltere! lan!scapeM also /ill re@uire Mmore inno#ati#e strategiesM an! M;oint approaches.M Bn the
latter, he plugge! the Air 'orceJ%a#y MairJsea battleM concept. 1he secretary also use! a large chun( of his speech to call for a!!itional resources for
capabilities that can Msee an! stri(e !eepM into hostile areas. He sai! the Pentagon plans to increase fun!ing for longJrange
unmanne! aircraft an! -R platforms. He sai! a!!itional resources are nee!e! to carry out a planne! increase
of ships for missile !efense missions. -ubmarinesH e*pan!e! roles Gates signale! submarines /ill be as(e! to !o more in
coming years. Pentagon brass see a Msubmarine force /ith e*pan!e! roles that is prepare! to con!uct more
missions !eep insi!e an enemyHs battle net/or(. M,e /ill also ha#e to increase submarine stri(e capability an!
loo( at smaller an! unmanne! un!er/ater platforms,M Gates sai!.
M&ltiple alt ca&ses to $ecline , training %&rea&crac! lac# of interest an$ aegis $ecline
Ewing 15 0 -taff ,riter for %a#y 1imes, (Phillip, 7-tu!y says Aegis ra!ar systems on the !ecline,8 July>, 4535
http9::///.na#ytimes.com:ne/s:4535:5P:na#yFaegisF5P5>35/:?::aberg
1he a!#ance! ra!ar systems aboar! cruisers an! !estroyers are in their /orst shape e#er, accor!ing to an in!epen!ent
probe into %a#y rea!iness, raising @uestions about the surface fleetQs ability to ta(e on its highJprofile ne/ mission ne*t year
!efen!ing )urope from ballistic missiles. Poor training, impenetrable bureaucracy an! cultural resignation ha#e cause! a
spi(e in the number of technical problems an! a !ip in the operational performance of the Aegis system, consi!ere! the cro/n ;e/el
of the ".-. surface force, accor!ing to members of a 7fleet re#ie/ panel8 tas(e! /ith assessing the surface fleet. An! if thatQs the situation /ith Aegis I
/hich inclu!es /arshipsQ iconic, he*agonal -P.J3 ra!ar arrays I the panel /on!ere! /hat that coul! mean for other, lo/erJprofile e@uipment. 71he
-P. ra!ar has historically been the best supporte! system in the surface %a#y, an! coinci!entally supports one
of the most critical %a#y missions to!ay9 ballisticJmissile !efense. .et -P. manpo/er, parts, training an!
performance are in !ecline.8 f thatQs the case, the report sai!, 7it can be assume! that less important systems coul! /ell be in
/orse material con!ition.8 1he panel /as con#ene! last -eptember by A!m. John Har#ey, hea! of 'leet 'orces Comman!. 1he se#enJmember
panel, /hich /as chaire! by retire! Cice A!m. Phillip &alisle an! inclu!e! t/o ser#ing a!mirals, pro!uce! a comprehensi#e in!ictment of %a#y !ecisionJ
ma(ing since the late 3<<5s9 A!miralsQ preoccupation /ith sa#ing money, /hich prompte! them to cut cre/s an!
7streamline8 training an! maintenance, le! to a force that canQt (eep ships in fighting shape. 1he panelQs report /as
obtaine! by %a#y 1imes. %a#y officials in the Pentagon !eferre! @uestions about Aegis problems to %a#al -ea -ystems Comman!, /hich ha! not
respon!e! as of late last /ee(. 1he mighty Aegis has fallen Although sailors an! other obser#ers ha#e sai! before that cuts in cre/ siAes hurt rea!iness,
&alisleQs report is the first to !etail so many problems /ith Aegis, /i!ely consi!ere! the /orl!Qs finest seagoing ra!ar an! combat system. t is so
po/erful an! a!aptable, in fact, the Bbama a!ministration is ban(ing on it to become a permanent &MD shiel! for )urope ne*t year, ta(ing the place of
groun!Jbase! sensors an! /eapons as ".-. /arships ma(e stan!ing patrols in the Me!iterranean. &ut the report sai! Aegis, li(e the rest of the fleet,
has become a #ictim of personnel cuts an! the %a#yQs labyrinthine internal organiAation. Casualty reports are
up 63 percent from fiscal 4556, an! those re@uiring technical assistance are up 6> percent. B#er the same perio!, -P.
ra!ar performance, as obser#e! by the &oar! of nspection an! -ur#ey, has stea!ily /orsene! for cruisers an! !estroyers. 1he
report inclu!es a sample of eight cruisers #isite! in the past se#eral months by n-ur#, /hose scores on Aegis rea!iness form a !istinct !o/n/ar! tren!.
1he best performers /ere Cape -t. George an! +a(e )rie, each of /hich got the ma*imum score of 3.5, /hich earns a rating of 7satisfactory8R Co/pens
an! Chosin, /ith scores bet/een 5.O an! 3.5, also earne! 7sat.8 1he /orst /ere Monterey, Chancellors#ille, -an Jacinto an! %orman!y, all of /hich got
gra!es that /oul! ha#e earne! them ratings of 7!egra!e!8 or 7unsat.8 ,hatQs causing itU 1he panel cite! many reasons9 N 1here arenQt enough @ualifie!
people in the right ;obs9 K< of >O !estroyers ha#e a secon! class fire controlman in a first class -P. maintenance billet. -e#en of 44 cruisers !onQt e#en
ha#e enough sailors to meet the minimum number of authoriAe! billets. N -ailors arenQt fully traine! on maintaining the ra!ars. N tQs too much /or(
na#igating the %a#y bureaucracy to or!er replacement parts, an!, as such, cre/s ha#e gro/n to accept 7!egra!ation,8 &alisleQs panel foun!. 'or e*ample,
ships are not or!ering replacement #oltage regulators, the report sai!, /hich -P. ra!ars nee! to help manage their pro!igious po/er consumption.
Cre/s arenQt or!ering them because technicians canQt get the money to buy spares, so comman!ers are (no/ingly ta(ing a ris( in operating their systems
/ithout replacements. 71he technicians canQt get the money to buy spare parts,8 the report sai!. 71hey ha#enQt been traine!
to the re@uirement. 1hey canQt go to their super#isor because, in the case of the DDGs, they li(ely are the super#isor.
1hey canQt repair the ra!ar through no fault of their o/n, but o#er time, the nonresponsi#eness of the %a#y system, the
acceptance of the -P. !egra!ation by the %a#y system an! their seniors, officers an! chiefs ali(e, /ill bree! Dif
not alrea!yE a culture that tolerates poor system performance. 71he fact that re@uests for technical assistance are up %a#yJ/i!e
suggests there is a !iminishe! selfJsufficiency in the surface force. -ailors are losing their sense of o/nership of their e@uipment an! are more apt to
/ant others to fi* it.8 %a#al e*pert A.D. &a(er , a retire! Bffice of %a#al ntelligence analyst an! longtime e!itor of 7Combat 'leets of the ,orl!,8
calle! the &alisle fin!ings 7utterly !amning.8 71he Aegis rea!iness shortfall is ;ust one of a #ast number of problems relate!
to pushing people too far an! not gi#ing them the training or fun!ing resources to carry out their !uties
properly,8 &a(er sai!. He sai! the reportQs fin!ings sho/e! the Defense DepartmentQs priorities for )uropean &MD ha! been misplace!. 71his /ill
significantly affect our putati#e &MD capability. 1he DPentagonQsE money is going to missile !e#elopment an! procurement, not to maintenance of the
!etection an! trac(ing system I /ithout /hich the best missiles in the /orl! /onQt be of much use.8 &alisleQs report has fe/ specific recommen!ations
for impro#ing the health of Aegis, although it /oul! li(ely benefit from the re#ie/ panelQs broa!er suggestions for a!!ing more sailors to sea an! shore
assignments. 1he panel !oes call for &ig %a#y to create a 7-P. Rea!iness Program8 an! to 7restore all aspects of -P. performance as a matter of priority,
to inclu!e manning, training, e@uipping an! maintenance.8 1he &alisle commission !oes /arn of the !angers of an 7itQs not my problem8
ethos in the surface force, /hich it sai! /ill ma(e the %a#yQs troubles, from Aegis to corrosion, all the more
!ifficult to fi*9 7'rom the most senior officers to the most ;unior petty officer, the culture re#eals itself in personal attitu!es ranging from
resignation to frustration to toleration. 1he !o/n/ar! spiral of the culture is seen throughout the ship, in the
longstan!ing acceptance of poor house(eeping, preser#ation an! corrosion control. B#er time, the ignore!
stan!ar! no/ becomes the norm. -ailors /atching their comman!ing officer, !epartment hea!, !i#ision officer
an! chief petty officer step o#er running rust, peeling nonJs(i! or se#ere structure !amage long enough
associate this acti#ity as the stan!ar!.8
Doesn-t Sol+e
Na+al capa%ilit! fails???$oesn-t sol+e terrorism
D&nn D 6:3<, $Philip Dunn /rites for phys.org, 7"- %a#yQs 'leet increasingly rrele#ant in 'ight against 1errorism an! Rogue -tates,8
http9::phys.org:ne/s=6=P4553.html, AJ
Bne of the ol!est ma*ims in /arfare is the military al/ays prepares to fight the last /ar. ,hen loo(ing at the
bul( of the "- %a#y, nothing coul! be truer. 'or the na#y, the problem is e#en /orse than for other ser#ices. %ot
because the na#y has ba! planners, but because of the high &nit cost an$ long lea$ time to %&il$ new
forces. Consi!er this9 ;ust to get an aircraft carrier afloat might ta(e t/enty years from or!ering to sha(e!o/n
cruise. 1hese floating airports cost billions of !ollars, an! once starte! canQt be stoppe!. n the /ater they ha#e
a ser#ice life of more than 45 years, huge cre/s an! e*tensi#e o#erhauls to maintain them up to !ate /ith the
latest technology. 1hey burn money li(e their ;ets burn a#iation gas 0 by the tan(er full. 1he current "- na#y has 34 aircraft carriers (CC, CC%?, 3O
nuclear arme! ballistic missile subs (--&%?, >5 attac( subs (--%? an! a host of cruisers, !estroyers, frigates, lan!ing an! comman! ships 0 about K>5
ships in all. tQs har! to see the nee! for this enormously e*pensi#e blue /ater fleet. Designe! to !uel a -o#iet blueJ
/ater fleet that no longer e*ists, /ho is it going to fightU ,orse, terrorists an$ 9r$ worl$ co&ntries ha+e
ro&tinel! $one serio&s $amage to these %illion $ollar high?tech missile magnets. n 4555, a couple of
guys in a lo/Jtech spee!boat full of e*plosi#es nearly san( the !estroyer "-- Cole at !oc( in A!en (illing 3P
sailors in the process. n 3<OP, an ra@i Mirage '3 put t/o )*ocet AMK< seaJs(imming ship (illers in to the frigate "-- -tar( /ith complete
impunity. 1he then "-Jally -a!am Hussien ha! the pilot behea!e! for his error 0 the ra@i pilot thought he /as
targeting an ranian tan(er. During the 'al(lan!s /ar the &ritish learne! first han! ho/ #ulnerable ships /ere. ArgentineanQs flying 'rench
ma!e Mirages arme! /ith )*ocets san( a frigate 0 the -heffiel! J an! a large containership 0 Atlantic Con#eyor. 1hey e#en lost se#eral ships to ungui!e!
>55lb bombs !roppe! by "- ma!e A6 -(yha/(s. A!mirals at the na#y are not stupi! 0 alrea!y plans are on the !ra/ing
boar! for ne/ types of ships better e@uippe! to !eal /ith a changing threat en#ironment. Ra!ars an! antimissile
systems are at the top of the list for ma;or impro#ements. -tealth to protect against ra!ars has also been impro#e! in the /a(e of a ne/ generation of
/ater s(imming supersonic antiship missiles. &ut the basic cheapJmissile #s. e*pensi#e, slo/ an! #ulnerableJship logic
remains. Con#entionally configure!, one -unburn coul! turn an Arliegh &ur(eJclass !estroyer in a smol!ering, sin(ing pile of scrap. 1his missile is
foun! Russian on 7-o#remennyy8 !estroyers (eight missiles each? an! on 71arantul8 (1arantula? patrol ships (four missiles each?. China recently
bought 4 -unburn arme! !estroyers to gi#e its Pacific 'leet an e!ge in any conflict /ith the "-. 1hese ne/ missiles are the primary reason carriers an!
capital ships try to stay at least 355 miles from the shore an! other ships 0 there is no (no/n !efense against them once launche!. 1he na#yQs
/orst nightmare /oul! be to ha#e to !eal /ith se#eral -unburnJarme! subs /hich coul! easily get /ithin stri(e
range of a carrier tas( force before being !etecte!.
Empirics
The impact is empiricall! $enie$ an$ their e+i$ence reflects a flawe$ &n$erstan$ing of how to
meas&re the aggregate of *S na+al power
>offman 5@ D'ran( G. Hoffman, -enior 'ello/ of the 'oreign Policy Research nstitute, 'rom Prepon!erance to Partnership9 American
Maritime Po/er in the 43st Century, http9::///.cnas.org:no!e:>4<
Bne of the most important national security challenges facing the ne*t presi!ent of the "nite! -tates /ill be preser#ing AmericaQs maritime po/er. 1he
".-. %a#y has been c&t in half since the 3<O5s, shrin(ing stea!ily from ><6 to to!ayQs 4O5 ships. 1he fleet siAe has
been cut by =5 ships !uring the &ush a!ministration alone, !espite significantly increase! Pentagon bu!gets.
-e#eral na#al analysts an! commentators, inclu!ing the obser#ant Robert 2aplan, ha#e argue! that AmericaQs present na#al fleet constitutes an
7elegant !ecline8 or outright neglect. A former Reagan a!ministration na#al official conten!s that our current maritime policy an!
in#estment le#els are 7#erging to/ar!s unilateral na#al !isarmament.8 1his is something of an o#erstatement. 1he
American na#al fleet is still substantially larger than any other, an! has &nmatche$ glo%al reach an$
en$&rance. 1he ".-. %a#yQs aggregate tonnage is the e.&i+alent of the ne2t 1L international na#ies, of
/hich 36 are ".-. allies, an! our po/er pro;ection capabilities retain a 693 a!#antage in missiles. +oo(ing simply at
o#erall na+al ship totals ma! not %e the most acc&rate meas&re of na+al power, but it is an historical stan!ar!
of measurement. &y that criterion, the ".-. %a#y has not been this siAe since ,orl! ,ar , /hen &ritainQs Royal %a#y /as the guarantor of the global
commons.
>igh Now
Chinese na+! has wea#nesses???*S can ta#e them $own
(7'o&r#e DE10 4534, $Ronal! BHRour(e9 -pecialist in %a#al Affairs, 7China %a#al Mo!erniAation9 mplications for ".-. %a#y CapabilitiesI
&ac(groun! an! ssues for Congress,8 Congressional Research -er#ice, http9::///.fas.org:sgp:crs:ro/:R+KK3>K.p!f, AJ
Although ChinaQs na#al mo!erniAation effort has substantially impro#e! ChinaQs na#al capabilities in recent
years, o%ser+ers %elie+e China-s na+! contin&es to e2hi%it limitations or wea#nesses in se+eral
areas , inclu!ing capabilities for sustaine! operations by larger formations in !istant /aters ,34 ;oint operations
/ith other parts of ChinaQs military,3K C6-R systems, antiJair /arfare (AA,?, antisubmarine /arfare (A-,?, MCM, a !epen!ence
on foreign suppliers for certain (ey ship components,36 an! a lac( of operational e*perience in combat
situations.3> 1he sufficiency of a countryQs na#al capabilities is best assesse! against that na#yQs inten!e! missions. Although ChinaQs na#y has
limitations an! /ea(nesses, it may ne#ertheless be sufficient for performing certain missions of interest to Chinese lea!ers. As ChinaQs na#y re!uces its
/ea(nesses an! limitations, it may become sufficient to perform a /i!er array of potential missions. 71he %a#y an! Air 'orce are
positione! to !o /ell Din forthcoming DBD bu!getsEIbut imagine business as usual for them /onQt be an option either,8 Dan
a!ministration officialE sai!, noting unmanne! aircraft /ill nee! to be a prominent feature for both. 1he %a#y nee!s to 7get serious8 about
unmanne! combat air #ehicles 7if they /ant to (eep carriers rele#ant8 an! the Air 'orce 7nee!s to rethin(
/hether the Dser#iceQs planne! ne/E longJrange bomber /ill be manne!,8 the official sai!.34P 1he %a#y is also
!e#eloping a number of new sensor an$ weapon technologies that might %e of +al&e in co&ntering
Chinese maritime anti?access capa%ilities , such as an electromagnetic rail gun ()MRG? /hose potential
missions inclu!e air an! missile !efense, an! highJpo/er free electron lasers (')+s? an! soli! state lasers
(--+s?, /hose potential missions also inclu!e air an! missile !efense.34O -ubmarines /ill !eploy an! operate in
con;unction /ith a family of unmanne! #ehicles an! sensors by 454> to sustain the &n$ersea $ominance
that is a clear *.S. as!mmetric a$+antage . +argeJ!isplacement unmanne! un!er/ater #ehicles (""Cs?
/ill !eploy from ships, shore, or CirginiaJclass submarine payloa! tubes to con!uct sur#eillance missions. ,ith
their range an! en!urance, large ""Cs coul! tra#el !eep into an a!#ersaryQs A4:AD en#elope to !eploy stri(e missiles,
electronic /arfare !ecoys, or mines. -maller ""Cs /ill be use! by submarines to e*ten! the reach of their
organic sensors, an! /ill operate in con;unction /ith unatten!e! sensors that can be !eploye! from surface
combatants, submarines, an! PJOA patrol aircraft. 1he resulting un!ersea net/or( /ill create a more complete an!
persistent 7common operational picture8 of the un!er/ater en#ironment /hen an! /here /e nee! it. 1his /ill
be essential to fin!ing an! engaging a!#ersary submarines, potentially the most !angerous A4:AD capability. At
present, the %a#y is !e#eloping +er! capa%le an$ elegant anti?%allistic intercept missiles that allow its
ships to $efensi+el! engage with precision at long ranges. 1he 'leet also has lessJelegant, closeJin
missileJ an! /eaponsJcapabilities. ,hat is potentially missing is an interme!iateJrange na#al gun capability that increases engagement
opportunities an! a!!s both !ensity an! !epth to layere! !efenses. ,ithin the %a#y, there are a total of 35= M2 6> >Jinch >6:=4Jcaliber guns that
can be lin(e! #ia /arship sensors for share! battleJnet/or( a/areness an! cooperati#eJengagement capability
Ione that is currently unuse!.
*S na+! is &nmatche$
S4< @ 34:3>, $-mall ,ars Journal, 7American Maritime Po/er in the 43st Century,8 http9::small/ars;ournal.com:blog:americanJmaritimeJpo/erJ
inJtheJ43stJcentury, AJ
-e#eral na#al analysts an! commentators, inclu!ing the obser#ant Robert 2aplan, ha#e argue! that AmericaHs present na#al fleet constitutes an Melegant
!eclineM or outright neglect. A former Reagan a!ministration na#al official conten!s that our current maritime policy an! in#estment le#els are
M#erging to/ar!s unilateral na#al !isarmament.M 1his is something of an o#erstatement. 1he American na#al
fleet is still s&%stantiall! larger than an! other an$ has &nmatche$ glo%al reach an$ en$&rance .
1he ".-. %a#yHs aggregate tonnage is the e@ui#alent of the ne*t 3P international na#ies, of /hich 36 are ".-.
allies, an! our po/er pro;ection capabilities retain a 693 a!#antage in missiles. +oo(ing simply at o#erall na#al
ship totals may not be the most accurate measure of na#al po/er, but it is an historical stan!ar! of measurement. &y
that criterion, the ".-. %a#y has not been this siAe since ,orl! ,ar , /hen &ritainHs Royal %a#y /as the guarantor of the global commons.
*S na+al power is high an$ &nchallenge$???!o&r a&thors are wrong
Farle! L 35:4K, $Robert 'arley is an assistant professor at the "ni#ersity of 2entuc(yQs Patterson -chool of Diplomacy an! nternational Commerce
an! a contributor to PRAQs Right ,eb, 71he 'alse Decline of the ".-. %a#y,8 1he American Prospect, http9::prospect.org:article:falseJ!eclineJusJna#y,
AJ
B#er at 1he Atlantic, Robert 2aplan is con#ince! the ".-. %a#y is in !ecline. 1oo ba! his argument ignores the
Na+!7s tr&e strategic strength an$ capa%ilities . ,e li#e in strange times. ,hile the " nite! -tates is
responsible for close to >5 percent of aggregate /orl! military e*pen!iture, an! maintains close alliances /ith
almost all of the other ma;or military po/ers, a community of !efense analysts continues to insist that /e nee!
to spen! more. n the %o#ember issue of 1he Atlantic, Robert 2aplan asserts that "nite! -tates hegemony is un!er the threat
of 7elegant !ecline,8 an! points to /hat con#entional analysts might suggest is the most secure element of
American po/erR the "nite! -tates %a#y. Despite the fact that the ".-. %a#y remains se#eral or!ers of magnitu!e more
po/erful than its nearest ri#al, 2aplan says that /e must be/areR if /e allo/ the siAe of our %a#y to further
!ecline, /e ris( repeating the e*perience of the "nite! 2ing!om in the years before ,orl! ,ar . "nfortunately, since
no actual e#i!ence of ".-. na#al !ecline e*ists, 2aplan is force! to rely on obfuscation, !istortion, an!
ten!entious historical analogies to ma(e his case. 1he centerpiece of 2aplanQs argument is a comparison of the
current ".-. %a#y to the &ritish Royal %a#y at the en! of the 3<th century. 1he !ecline of the Royal %a#y heral!e! the
collapse of &ritish hegemony, an! the !ecline of the ".-. %a#y threatens a similar fate for the "nite! -tates. 1he only problem /ith this
argument is that similarities bet/een the 43st century "nite! -tates an! the 3<th century "nite! 2ing!om are
more imagine! than real. tQs true that the relati#e strength of the Royal %a#y !ecline! at the en! of the 3<th
century, but this /as !ue entirely the rise of the "nite! -tates an! Germany. &ut the absolute strength of the Royal %a#y
increase! in the late 3<th an! early 45th centuries, as the "nite! 2ing!om stro#e to maintain na#al !ominance o#er t/o countries that possesse! larger
economies an! larger in!ustrial bases than that of Great &ritain. n other /or!s, the position of the Royal %a#y !ecline! because the position of the
"nite! 2ing!om !ecline!R in spite of this !ecline, the Royal %a#y continue! to !ominate the seas against all comers until 3<63. &ritainQs relati#e
economic !ecline prece!e! its na#al !ecline, although the efforts to (eep up /ith Germany, the "nite! -tates, an! later Japan !i! serious !amage to the
&ritish economy. 1he "nite! -tates faces a situation /hich is in no /ay similar. Returning to the present, 2aplan ta(es note of the
gro/th of se#eral foreign na#ies, inclu!ing the n!ian, Chinese, an! Japanese. He points out that the Japanese %a#y has a large number of !estroyers
an! a gro/ing number of submarines. He /arns that n!ia 7may soon ha#e the /orl!Qs thir! largest na#y8 /ithout gi#ing any in!ication of /hy that
matters. Most serious of all, he !escribes the threat of a gro/ing Chinese %a#y an! claims that, ;ust as the &attle of ,oun!e! 2nee opene! a ne/ age for
American imperialism, the con@uest of 1ai/an coul! transform China into an e*pansionist, imperial po/er. 1he curious historical analogies
asi!e, 2aplan is careful to ma(e no !irect comparisons bet/een the gro/ing na#ies of foreign countries an! the
actual strength of the "nite! -tates %a#y. 1hereQs a goo! reason for this o#ersightR there is no comparison
bet/een the ".-. %a#y an! any na#y afloat to!ay. 1he "nite! -tates %a#y currently operates ele#en aircraft
carriers. 1he ol!est an! least capable is faster, one thir! larger, an! carries three times the aircraft of A!miral
2uAnetso#, the largest carrier in the Russian %a#y. "nli(e ChinaQs only aircraft carrier, the former Russian Caryag,
American carriers ha#e engines an! are capable of selfJpropulsion. 1he only carrier in n!ian ser#ice is fifty
years ol! an! a @uarter the siAe of its American counterparts. %o na#y besi!es the "nite! -tatesH has more than
one aircraft carrier capable of flying mo!ern fi*e! /ing aircraft. 1he "nite! -tates en;oys similar !ominance in
surface combat #essels an! submarines, operating t/entyJt/o cruisers, fifty !estroyers, fiftyJfi#e nuclear attac(
submarines, an! ten amphibious assault ships (#essels roughly e@ui#alent to most foreign aircraft carriers?. In e+er! categor!
the *.S. Na+! com%ines pres&mpti+e n&merical s&periorit! with a significant ship?to?ship
a$+antage o+er an! foreign na+!. This sit&ation is &nli#el! to change an!time soon . 1he 'rench
%a#y an! the Royal %a#y /ill each e*pan! to t/o aircraft carriers o#er the ne*t !eca!e. 1he most ambitious
plans ascribe! to the PeopleQs +iberation Army %a#y call for no more than three aircraft carriers by 4545, an! e#en
that strains cre!ulity, gi#en ChinaQs ine*perience /ith carrier operations an! the construction of large military
#essels. ,hile a crash construction program might concei#ably gi#e the Chinese the ability to achie#e local
!ominance (at great cost an! for a short time?, the "nite! -tates %a#y /ill continue to !ominate the /orl!Qs
oceans an! littorals for at least the ne*t fifty years. n or!er to try to sho/ that the ".-. %a#y is insufficient in
the face of future threats, 2aplan argues that /e on are our /ay to 7a 3>5 ship na#y8 that /ill be o#er/helme! by the !eman!s of /arfighting
an! global economic maintenance. He suggests that the 73,555 -hip %a#y8 proposal, an international plan to streamline cooperation bet/een the /orl!Qs
na#ies on maritime maintenance issues such as piracy, inter!iction of !rug an! human smuggling, an! !isaster relief, is an effort at 7elegant !ecline,8
an! !eclares that the !ominance of the "nite! -tates %a#y cannot be maintaine! through collaboration /ith others. tQs true that a =55 ship
na#y can !o more than the current 4>5Jplus ship force of the current ".-. %a#y, but 2aplanQs playing a game of
bait an! s/itch. 1he %a#y has fe/er ships than it !i! t/o !eca!es ago, but the ships it has are far more capable
than those of the 3<O5s. &ecause of the collapse of its competitors, the %a#y is relati#ely more capable of
fighting an! /inning /ars no/ than it /as !uring the Reagan a!ministration. &roa!ly spea(ing, na#ies ha#e t/o missionsR
/arfighting, an! maritime maintenance. 2aplan /ants to confuse the maritime maintenance mission (/hich can be !one in
collaboration /ith others? /ith the /arfighting mission (/hich nee! not be?. A na#y can re@uire the cooperation of others
for the maintenance mission, /hile still possessing &tter militar! s&periorit! o+er an! one na+! or
an! pla&si%le com%ination of na+ies on the high seas. n!ee!, this is the situation that the "nite! -tates
%a#y currently en;oys. t cannot be e#ery/here all at once, an! !oes re@uire the cooperation of regional na#ies
for fighting piracy an! smuggling. At the same time, the *.S. Na+! can $estro! an! (an$ pro%a%l! all at the
same time" na+al challengers . 1o conflate these t/o missions is e@ual parts silly an! !ishonest. 1he %a#y
has arri#e! at an i!eal compromise bet/een the t/o, (eeping its fighting supremacy /hile lea!ing an!
facilitating cooperation aroun! the /orl! on maritime issues. 1his compromise has allo/e! the %a#y to buil!
positi#e relationships /ith the na#ies of the /orl!, a fact that 2aplan ignores. ,hile asserting the !angers pose! by a
#ariety of foreign na#ies, 2aplan ma(es a !istortion !epressingly common to those /ho /arn of the !ecline of
American hegemonyR he forgets that the "nite! -tates has allies. ,hile 2aplan can plausibly argue that gro/th in
Russian or Chinese na#al strength threatens the "nite! -tates, the same cannot reasonably be sai! of Japan,
n!ia, 'rance, or the "nite! 2ing!om. ,ith the e*ception of China an! Russia, all of the most po/erful na#ies in the /orl! belong to
American allies. "nite! -tates cooperation /ith the na#ies of %A1B, n!ia, an! Japan has tightene!, rather than
/ane! in the last ten years, an! the "nite! -tates also retains /arm relations /ith thir! tier na#ies such as those
of -outh 2orea, Australia, an! Malaysia. n any concei#able na#al confrontation the "nite! -tates /ill ha#e
frien!s, ;ust as the Royal %a#y ha! frien!s in 3<36 an! 3<63. Robert 2aplan /ants to /arn the American people of the !angers
of impen!ing na#al !ecline. "nfortunately, heQs almost entirely /rong on the facts. ,hile the reach of the "nite!
-tates %a#y may ha#e !ecline! in an absolute sense, its capacity to fight an! /in na#al /ars has, if anything,
increase! since the en! of the Col! ,ar. 1hat the "nite! -tates continues to embe! itself in a !eep set of
cooperati#e arrangements /ith other na#al po/ers only reinforces the !ominance of the ".-. %a#y on the high
seas. Analysts /ho /ant to argue for greater ".-. military spen!ing are best a!#ise! to concentrate on the fiascos in ra@ an! Afghanistan.
SC Sol+es
S.&o sol+es the Na+! emerging threats hegemon! an$ the econom!???AirSea /attle
(7'o&r#e DE10 4534, $Ronal! BHRour(e9 -pecialist in %a#al Affairs, 7China %a#al Mo!erniAation9 mplications for ".-. %a#y CapabilitiesI
&ac(groun! an! ssues for Congress,8 Congressional Research -er#ice, http9::///.fas.org:sgp:crs:ro/:R+KK3>K.p!f, AJ
DBD has been !e#eloping a ne/ AirJ-ea &attle (A-&? concept that is inten!e! to increase the ;oint operating
effecti#eness ".-. na#al an! Air 'orce units, particularly in operations for countering antiJaccess forces. 1he A-&
!e#elopment effort /as announce! in the 4535 Sua!rennial Defense Re#ie/. DBD has establishe! an AirJ-ea &attle Bffice to gui!e the implementation
of the concept.335 Although DBD officials state that the A-& concept is not !irecte! at any particular a!#ersary, many obser#ers belie#e it is focuse! to a
large !egree, if not principally, on countering Chinese an! ranian antiJaccess forces. Appreciating the nee! to a!!ress the gro/ing
challenge pose! by the emerging A4:AD en#ironment, the -ecretary of Defense !irecte! the Department of the
Air 'orce an! the Department of the %a#y to !e#elop an AirJ-ea &attle Concept. n response, the ser#ices !esigne!
an operational concept, focuse! on the /ays an! means necessary to neutraliAe current an! anticipate! A4:AD
threats, to ensure our Joint force maintains the ability to pro8ect power an$ protect *.S. national
interests . 1he AirJ-ea &attle Concept centers on net/or(e!, integrate!, attac(JinJ!epth to !isrupt, !estroy
an! !efeat (%AJDK? A4:AD threats. 1his approach e*ploits an! impro#es upon the a!#antage ".-. forces ha#e
across the air, maritime, lan!, space an! cyberspace !omains, an! is essential to !efeat increasingly capable
intelligence gathering systems an! sophisticate! /eapons systems use! by a!#ersaries employing A4:AD
systems. Bffensi#e an! !efensi#e tas(s in AirJ-ea &attle are tightly coor!inate! in real time by net/or(s able to
comman! an! control air an! na#al forces in a conteste! en#ironment. 1he air an! na#al forces are organiAe!
by mission an! net/or(e! to con!uct integrate! operations across all !omains. 1he concept organiAes these integrate!
tas(s into three lines of effort, /herein air an! na#al forces attac(JinJ!epth to !isrupt the a!#ersaryQs intelligence
collection an! comman! an! control use! to employ A4:AD /eapons systemsR !estroy or neutraliAe A4:AD
/eapons systems /ithin effecti#e range of ".-. forcesR an! !efeat an a!#ersaryQs employe! /eapons to preser#e
essential ".-. Joint forces an! their enablers. 1hrough %AJDK, air an! na#al forces achie#e integrate! effects across
multiple !omains, using multiple paths to increase the resilience, agility, spee! an! effecti#eness of the force. AirJ-ea &attle
is a limite! operational concept !esigne! to a!!ress an a!#ersaryQs A4:AD capabilities. t is not a concept aime! at any particular potential a!#ersary,
nor a campaign plan !esigne! to accomplish a specific national ob;ecti#e. nstea!, it is a concept that /ill spar( inno#ation an! !e#elopment of the
means to support future operations. 1he AirJ-ea &attle Concept i!entifies the actions nee!e! to !efeat A4:AD threats an! the materiel an! nonJmateriel
solutions re@uire! to e*ecute those actions. Regar!less of anticipate! a!#ancements in A4:AD threats, implementation of the AirJ-ea &attle
Concept /ill ensure the ".-. can gain access an! pro;ect po/er in !efense of ".-. interests an! those of our
allies an! partners.3P3 ,ith AirJ-ea &attle, /e are rein#igorating the historic partnership bet/een our t/o !epartments to protect the free!om of
the commons an! ensure operational access for the Joint 'orce. AirJ-ea &attle pro#i!es the concepts, capabilities an!
in#estments nee!e! to o+ercome the challenges pose$ %! emerging threats to access li(e ballistic an!
cruise missiles, a!#ance! submarines an! fighters, electronic /arfare an! mines. &y better countering these military
threats, AirJ-ea &attle /ill impro#e the cre!ibility an! effecti#eness of the entire Joint force as a (ey element of Joint
Bperational Access Concept implementation !irecte! in the ne/ !efense gui!ance. AirJ-ea &attle relies on highly integrate! an! tightly coor!inate!
operations across /arfighting !omainsIfor e*ample, using cyber metho!ologies to !efeat threats to aircraft, or using aircraft to !efeat threats on an!
un!er the sea. 1his le#el of integration re@uires that the %a#y an! the Air 'orce not only restore an!
institutionaliAe their close inter!epen!ence in the fiel! but also support Joint efforts to better integrate the
processes they use to !e#elop, manage an! prepare forces for !eployment. 1hose processes, in turn, must translate into
effecti#e organiAational, operational an! ac@uisition strategies. Clearly, for ".-. military forces to continue protecting the free!om of international
/aters, s(ies an! cyberspace /e must buil! on our collecti#e ser#ice histories an! share! #alues to foster a more permanent an! /ellJinstitutionaliAe!
partnership bet/een the !epartments. AirJ-ea &attle !oes e*actly that. Preser#ing ".-. global free!om of action is increasingly
importantR American interests remain e*pansi#e, e#en as American resources become more constraine!.
Autocratic states an! groups see(ing to sub#ert the pre#ailing political an! economic or!er are alrea!y
le#eraging their geographic a!#antages to employ arme! coercion an! political action to counter American
presence an! po/er pro;ection, as /ell as to !isrupt free access to (ey areas in the air an! maritime commons.
As these re#isionist strategies a!#ance, AmericaQs frien!s /ill increasingly see( the security an! stability pro#i!e! by comprehensi#e ".-. national po/er.
f America appears unable or un/illing to counter an a!#ersaryQs antiJaccess military capabilities, its frien!s
an! allies may fin! ".-. security assurances less cre!ible, lea!ing some of them to see( accommo!ation /ith aggressors
or alternate means of selfJ !efense, inclu!ing weapons of mass $estr&ction. )ither course of action coul! lea! to !angerous regional
security competitions. Mean/hile, !o/n/ar! pressure on ".-. national !efense spen!ing complicates !efense planning an! /eapon system
recapitaliAation. 1hrough the AirJ-ea &attle concept an! its man!ate for impro#e! Air 'orce an! %a#y integration, /e aim to help a!!ress these
challenges. 1hese e*amples typify past Air 'orce an! %a#y integration efforts, /hich ten!e! to be episo!ic an! a! hoc. Bnce the specific threat abate!,
the partnership !issol#e! almost as @uic(ly as it ha! forme!. 1o!ay, ho/e#er, /e face a range of increasingly comple* threats that
!eman! a more en!uring, more !eeply institutionaliAe! approach. AirJ-ea &attle mitigates access challenges
by mo#ing beyon! simply !eJconflicting operations in each /arfighting !omain, to/ar! creating the le#el of
!omain integration necessary to !efeat increasingly #arie! an! sophisticate! threats. As these historical e*amples
illustrate, this integration nee!s to occur in the fiel!Ibut it also nee!s to occur institutionally in our ser#ice efforts to organiAe, train an! e@uip the
current an! future force. 1he imperati#e behin! AirJ-ea &attle, as /e ha#e argue!, stems from the importance of our
nationQs military capacity for protecting allies an! partners as /ell as ensuring free!om of access to (ey areas of
international air, sea, space an! cyberspace. Bur militaryQs po/er pro;ection ability also allo/s ".-. statesmen
to better manage the ris(s an! uncertainties associate! /ith changes in the !istribution of po/er, especially
/hen those changes empo/er states /ho challenge important international norms. 'ree access to the ungo#erne!
7commons8 of air, maritime, cyberspace an! space is the foun!ation of the global mar(etplace. More than t/o billion passengers an!
more than K> percent of international tra!e by #alue transit international airspace annually. Ninet! percent
of glo%al tra$e %! +ol&me tra+els %! sea , an! 4> percent of that, appro*imately >5,555 #essels a year,
tra#els through a 3.PJmileJ/i!e sli#er of ocean at the -trait of Malacca. 'inancial tra!ers aroun! the /orl!
con!uct secure ban(ing transactions in#ol#ing more than T6 trillion per !ay using intercontinental
communications tra#eling through un!er/ater cables an! precise timing signals from the spaceJbase! Global
Positioning -ystem. nterconnecte! systems of tra!e, finance, information an! security enable global
prosperity an! ha#e helpe! lift almost a billion people out of po#erty since ,orl! ,ar . &ut this
interconnecte!ness also ma(es the global economy more susceptible to !isruption. 1he fragility of cho(epoints
in air, space, cyberspace an! on the sea enable an increasing number of entities, states an! nonJstate actors
ali(e to !isrupt the global economy /ith small numbers of /ellJplace!, precise attac(s. 1o!ay, for e*ample,
Iran reg&larl! threatens transit access through the -trait of HormuA in response to international
sanctions. Moreo#er, these strategies an! the /eapons that support them are also no longer the e*clusi#e pro#ince of large states. Pirates
terrorists an$ ins&rgents are increasingl! a%le to $isr&pt free transit in the air on lan$ an$ at
sea . 1he " nite! -tates must be prepare! to respon! to these contingencies, to !efen! ".-. interests abroa! an! to
preser+e the free$om an$ sec&rit! of the glo%al commons in this rapi$l! changing en+ironment.
,hen the -o#iet "nion !issol#e!, so !i! the pre!ictability that gui!e! ".-. force !e#elopment an! force posture for !eca!es. Bur pre!ecessors
recogniAe!, ho/e#er, that ne/ a!#ersaries /oul! ine#itably rise to challenge our national interests. 1hey !e#elope! an
impro#e! mo!el of e*pe!itionary /arfare !emonstrate! in Desert -torm, one that capitaliAe! on an! sustaine! American free!om of action. 1han(s to
their foresight an! effort, the ".-. military to!ay can surge aircraft, ships, troops an! supplies from locations /ithin
the "nite! -tates an! across the globe to any region of concern. f conflict erupts an! if calle! on by the ".-.
national lea!ership, the ".-. military can seiAe air, maritime an! space superiority, an! e*ploit that a!#antage
in follo/Jon operations. AirJ-ea &attle is !esigne! to sustain AmericaQs free!om of action in the face of these
!e#elopments. Although AirJ-ea &attle aims to create a more cre!ible fighting force, our #ision shoul! not be mista(en for a oneJ!imensional combat
plan against specific a!#ersaries. AirJ-ea &attleQs purpose is to gui!e our ser#icesQ efforts to organiAe, train an! e@uip
our forces by !escribing ho/ to ensure free!om of action for the entire Joint 'orce. Bperational plans buil!ing on the AirJ
-ea &attle concept /ill not be !e#elope! in the Pentagon but by the combatant comman!ers themsel#es. Bur focus is on ho/ to pro#i!e combatant
comman!ers the capabilities nee!e! to gain an! maintain access as part of their plans. 1he first steps to implement AirJ-ea &attle are
alrea!y un!er/ay here at the Pentagon. n our '. 4534 an! '. 453K bu!gets /e increase! in#estment in the
systems an! capabilities /e nee! to !efeat access threats. ,e also establishe! a ne/ AirJ-ea &attle Bffice to impro#e integration
an! interJser#ice communication. nstitutionaliAing these arrangements is a (ey to fostering persistent an! sustainable progress in AirJ-ea &attle
implementation an! to engen!er the 7culture of change8 highlighte! in the ne/ strategic gui!ance to the Department of Defense. Much as Air+an! &attle
an! its 7K3 nitiati#es8 influence! a generation of airmen an! sol!iers, /e /ant AirJ-ea &attle to shape a ne/ generation of airmen
an! sailors. Acti#e collaboration bet/een our ser#ices /ill re#eal untappe! synergies in (ey areas such as
intelligence, sur#eillance an! reconnaissanceR electronic /arfareR comman! an! controlR an! buil!ing an!
sustaining fruitful international partnerships /ith ".-. allies, partners an! frien!s. 7%et/or(e!89 &y establishing
resilient communications net/or(s an! reinforcing the lin(s bet/een people an! organiAations, air an! na#al
forces /ill maintain !ecision a!#antage an! effecti#e crossJ!omain operations !espite an a!#ersaryQs antiJ
access an! areaJ!enial efforts. N 7ntegrate!89 Air an! na#al forces /ill tightly coor!inate their operations across
each !omain to !efeat antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial threats. 1his /ill re@uire ne/ mo!els for comman! an! control to allo/, for
e*ample, cyber or un!ersea operations to !efeat air !efense systems or air attac(s to eliminate submarine or mine threats. Air an! na#al force
integration /ill also capitaliAe on multiple attac( path/ays to increase combat efficiency an! hol! targets at
ris( that /oul! other/ise be immune from attac(. N 7Attac(JinJDepth89 n tra!itional attrition mo!els of /arfare, forces attac( the
outer layer of an enemyQs !efenses an! !eliberately fight their /ay in. n contrast, un!er AirJ -ea &attle, forces /ill attac( a!#ersary
systems /here#er nee!e! to gain access to conteste! areas nee!e! to achie#e operational ob;ecti#es. "sing
7%et/or(e!, ntegrate! Attac(JinJDepth8, American air an! na#al forces /ill con!uct operations along three main lines of
effort9 N Disrupt. 1his category inclu!es offensi#e operations to !ecei#e or !eny a!#ersary battle net/or(s,
particularly intelligence, sur#eillance an! reconnaissance (-R? an! comman! an! control (C4? systems. 1his re!uces the effecti#e
!ensity of a!#ersary antiJaccess systems by forcing attac(s against false targets, causing a!#ersary hesitation in
the face of poor information, an! pre#enting the cueing of a!#ersary ships, missiles, electronic /arfare systems
an! aircraft. NDestroy. Bffensi#e operations to neutraliAe a!#ersary /eapon !eli#ery platforms such as ships,
submarines, aircraft an! missile launchers fall into this category. 1his also pre#ents the a!#ersary from
e*ten!ing the range of the !enie! area, an! re!uces the !ensity of antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial attac(s. N Defeat.
Defensi#e operations to protect ;oint forces an! their enablers from /eapons launche! by an a!#ersary are
important to the AirJ-ea &attle concept. Bur efforts to !isrupt the enemyQs C4 an! -R /ill re!uce the !ensity
of attac(s to enhance the effecti#eness of our !efensi#e systems. The Air?Sea /attle operational concept
will g&i$e o&r efforts to train an$ prepare air an$ na+al forces for com%at. ,e alrea!y train together an!
share ;oint !octrine. "n!er AirJ-ea &attle, /e /ill ta(e 7;ointness8 to a ne/ le#el, /or(ing together to establish more
integrate! e*ercises against more realistic threats. Bur people /ill practice coor!inate! operations combining stealthy submarines,
stealthy aircraft an! remotely pilote! #ehicles. ,e /ill learn to !eli#er fullJmotion #i!eo !irectly from Air 'orce remotely pilote! aircraft to %a#y ships
transiting highJthreat regions. ,e /ill coor!inate bet/een Air 'orce an! %a#y operations centers to create seamless
an! resilient comman! an! control net/or(s. ,e /ill learn ho/ to integrate na#al forces into airfiel! !efense,
an! /e /ill train our Air 'orce aircre/s to !efen! ships at sea. 1o i!entify an! e*ploit these synergies,
comman!ers /ill promulgate promising i!eas across the ser#ices, an! /e /ill incorporate them into our
bu!geting, ac@uisition, an! !e#elopment of !octrine an! tactics. 1hese efforts /ill sustain American military
cre!ibility, enhance the e*pe!itionary cre!ibility of groun! forces an! bolster international trust in critical
areas /here ".-. po/er pro;ection capabilities un!erpin regional stability an! security. ,e /ill also use AirJ-ea
&attle to gui!e collaborati#e efforts to !e#elop an! mo!erniAe our air an! na#al forces. ,e ha#e historically built
magnificent platforms an! capabilities tailore! to ser#iceJspecific re@uirements, /ith the Air 'orce focusing on pre#ailing in the air an! space, an! the
%a#y in the maritime !omains. Ho/e#er, mo!ern technology has blurre! the historical !istinction bet/een the ser#icesQ tra!itional realms. Ha#ing a
strong Air 'orce no longer guarantees control of the air, an! ha#ing a strong %a#y no longer guarantees control
of the seas. Bur respecti#e /arfighting !omains ha#e become intert/ine! such that the ability to control an!
e*ploit one increasingly !epen!s on control in the others. ,e ha#e alrea!y begun this collaboration /ith our
/or( on the Global Ha/( an! &roa! Area Maritime -ur#eillance aircraft, the 'JK> +ightning , an! a range of
sensor, net/or( an! /eapon systems. )#en /ithout AirJ-ea &attle, the Air 'orce an! %a#y /oul! surely ha#e
trie! to ans/er the antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial challenge. &ut they /oul! ha#e !one so through separate ac@uisition programs,
tactics an! proce!ure !e#elopment, an! organiAational changes. Discrete %a#y an! Air 'orce partnerships might ha#e forme!, but the result /oul! ha#e
been an array of competing efforts /ith little cohesion, pursue! energetically but inefficiently. 1hese tra!itional approaches /ill not /or(
anymore. Constraine! !efense bu!gets, aging har!/are an! accelerating antiJaccess an! areaJ!enial threats
!eman! a more effecti#e mo!el of !e#eloping an! fiel!ing capabilities. ,e cannot simply buy our /ay out of this pre!icament
by in#esting in ne/ technologies. 1o meet the !eman!s of the Presi!entQs strategic !irection to the Department of Defense an! respon! to the e#ol#ing
security en#ironment, /e must brea( bureaucratic chains, set asi!e parochialism an! get !o/n to the business of collaborati#ely !e#eloping po/er
pro;ection capabilities for this ne/ era. ,hile pursuing AirJ-ea &attle seems li(e common sense, the /ay ahea! /ill be challenging. -ome /ithin the
Pentagon may #ie/ our initiati#es as e*istential threats to core ser#ice i!entities an! beliefs, heritages an! tra!itions. ,e !o not see it that /ay. Rather
than threatening ser#ice i!entities, /e see AirJ-ea &attle as strengthening them. %obo!y !oes sea control li(e the ".-.
%a#y, an! the Air 'orce shoul! collaborate /ith the %a#y to enhance American sea po/er. -imilarly, no one !oes
air an! space control li(e the ".-. Air 'orce, an! the %a#y shoul! partner /ith its sister ser#ice to enhance
those capabilitiesR all /ithin a larger ;oint an! combine! po/er pro;ection conte*t. n a changing /orl! that !eman!s
continue! ".-. lea!ership, AirJ-ea &attle is an essential part of sustaining AmericaQs military free!om of action an!
ability to pro;ect po/er. ,e /ill institutionaliAe our !e#elopment of !octrine, organiAation, training, personnel, lea!ership an! facilities, an!
ensure that AirJ-ea &attle sur#i#es contact /ith the s(eptics an! entrenche! bureaucracy. AirJ-ea &attle is not a sil#erJbullet solution to our security
challenges, but it is a critical line of effort that /e must pursue to sustain AmericaQs military a!#antage, an! /ith it,
our security an! prosperity.3P4 An April 4534 press report that pro#i!es a historical account of the A-& concept states9 7n truth, the Air
-ea &attle Concept is the culmination of a strategy fight that began nearly t/o !eca!es ago insi!e the Pentagon
an! ".-. go#ernment at large o#er ho/ to !eal /ith a single actor9 the PeopleQs Republic of China.83PK A %o#ember
35, 4533, press report states9 Military officials from the three ser#ices tol! reporters !uring a D%o#ember <, 4533, DBDE bac(groun! briefing that the
concept is not !irecte! at a single country. &ut they !i! not ans/er /hen as(e! /hat country other than China has !e#elope! a!#ance! antiJaccess arms.
A senior Bbama a!ministration official /as more blunt, saying the ne/ concept is a significant milestone signaling a ne/ Col! ,arJstyle approach to
China. 7Air -ea &attle is to China /hat the D".-. %a#yQs mi!J3<O5sE maritime strategy /as to the -o#iet "nion,8 the official sai!. During the Col! ,ar,
".-. na#al forces aroun! the /orl! use! a strategy of glo%al presence an$ shows of force to $eter
Moscow-s a$+ances. 7t is a #ery for/ar!J!eploye!, asserti#e strategy that says /e /ill not sit bac( an! be punishe!,8 the senior official sai!.
7,e /ill initiate.8 1he concept, accor!ing to !efense officials, gre/ out of concerns that ChinaQs ne/ precisionJ stri(e /eapons threaten
free!om of na#igation in strategic /ater/ays an! other global commons. Defense officials familiar /ith the concept sai!
among the i!eas un!er consi!eration are9 N &uil!ing a ne/ longJrange bomber. N Con!ucting ;oint submarine an! stealth aircraft operations. N %e/
;ointly operate!, longJrange unmanne! stri(e aircraft /ith up to 3,555Jmile ranges. N "sing Air 'orce forces to protect na#al bases an! !eploye! na#al
forces. N Con!ucting ;oint %a#y, Marine Corps an! Air 'orce stri(es insi!e China. N "sing Air 'orce aircraft to !eploy sea mines. N Joint Air
'orce an! %a#y attac(s against Chinese antiJsatellite missiles insi!e China. ncreasing the mobility of satellites to ma(e attac(s more !ifficult. +aunching
;oint %a#y an! Air 'orce cyberJattac(s on Chinese antiJaccess forces.3P6
More e+i$ence???AirSea %attle sol+es
For%es 1= K:O, $Rep. J. Ran!y 'orbes, RJCa., is chairman of the House Arme! -er#ices Rea!iness -ubcommittee an! foun!er an! coJchairman of
the Congressional China Caucus, 7AmericaQs Pacific AirJ-ea &attle Cision,8 http9::the!iplomat.com:4534:5K:5O:americasJpacificJairJseaJbattleJ#ision:,
AJ
1he ".-. must stop ta(ing an 7instant pu!!ing8 #ie/ of military planning. 1he AirJ-ea &attle plan is the best hope to ensure
security in the Pacific. n the late summer of 4533, ".-. -ecretary of Defense +eon Panetta signe! the AirJ-ea &attle (A-&?
operational concept into effect, an! shortly thereafter stoo! up the AirJ-ea &attle Bffice at the Pentagon to help
implement its core tenets. 1his effort, accor!ing to Gen. %orton A. -ch/artA, Chief of -taff of the Air 'orce, an! A!m. Jonathan ,.
Greenert, Chief of %a#al Bperations, /ill help the ser#ices better organiAe, train, an! e@uip themsel#es to pro#i!e ".-.
Combatant Comman!ers /ith the capabilities necessary to maintain operational access in sophisticate! antiJ
access:areaJ!enial (A4:AD? en#ironments. 1his /ill be of particular importance in the /estern Pacific Bcean, /here
China is %&il$ing its own A=EAD capa%ilities in an effort to $en! the *.S. entr! in its near?seas.
1hroughout the last si* !eca!es, AmericaQs military strength has helpe! preser#e a relati#ely stable geoJstrategic
en#ironment in the AsiaJPacific. Ho/e#er, in the past !eca!e China has rapi$l! mo$erni;e$ its militar! ,
inclu!ing another !ouble !igit military increase ne*t year, /ith aspirations of supplanting the ".-. position. f
present tren!s continue, the regional balance of po/er coul! tilt in &ei;ingQs fa#or as it is increasingly able to !eter
".-. forces from entering the region, coerce neighboring states, or 0 shoul! conflict ensue 0 /in a rapi! #ictory.
n response, the "nite! -tates must /or( to simultaneously sustain a le#el of cre!ible !eterrence in the region /hile
reassuring allies, inclu!ing Japan, the Republic of 2orea, the Philippines, Australia, an! strategic partners li(e
-ingapore. AirJ-ea &attle is no/ at the center of this effort. n short, the AirJ-ea &attle Bffice aims to !efine
initiati#es to !e#elop the capabilities an! integration necessary to help Combatant Comman!ers con!uct
integrate!, crossJ!omain operations in A4:AD en#ironments. Accor!ing to -ch/artA an! Greenert, AirJ Sea /attle
see#s to &se ANetwor#e$ Integrate$ Attac#?in?DepthB to A$isr&pt $estro! an$ $efeat 8 (%AJDK?
a!#ersary capabilities. More specifically, the ;oint force (integrate! air, groun!, an! na#al forces? arme! /ith
resilient communications (net/or(e!? aims to stri(e at multiple no!es of an enemyQs system (attac(JinJ!epth? along
three lines of effort. f /e can consi!er these lines in terms of an enemy archer, one coul! choose to blin! the archer (!isrupt?, (ill
the archer (!estroy?, or stop his arro/ (!efeat?. &alance! capabilities geare! to/ar!s e*ecuting all three /ill be
re@uire!.
Na+al s&periorit! is high
Schan; 11 Bctober 4533, $Marc C. -chanA9 -enior )!itor, Air 'orce MagaAine, 7Air-ea &attleHs 1urbulent .ear,8 http9::///.airforceJ
magaAine.com:MagaAineArchi#e:Pages:4533:BctoberL454533:3533airsea.asp*, AJ
Air-ea &attle, the operational concept recently assemble! by the Air 'orce an! %a#y, is an ambitious effort /ith great implications
for ho/ the air an$ sea ser+ices plan for e.&ip an$ prepare to fight f&t&re high?intensit!
conflicts . A-& is born out of a nee! for the "- military to a!!ress percei#e! threats an! strategic concerns
across the globe, in en#ironments far !ifferent from the t/o largely Mlo/ intensityM /ars fought o#er the last
!eca!e. At its core, a finaliAe! AirSea /attle concept will protect America-s a%ilit! to pro8ect power an$
sec&re areas of the Fglo%al commonsFGthe sea an$ air lanes +ital to the nation-s interests I/hile
relying hea#ily on air an! sea superiority. MB#er the last se#eral !eca!es, the "- military has !e#elope! an! maintaine!
an &nri+ale$ a%ilit! to esta%lish an$ maintain air s&periorit! an$ sea control ,M sai! Air 'orce Chief of -taff
Gen. %orton A. -ch/artA in an a!!ress at the %ational Defense "ni#ersity in December 4535. 1he "- has been so successful in
pro;ecting e*pe!itionary po/er, both from long !istances an! from for/ar! bases, that its a%ilit! to $o so has %een
largel! &nchallenge$, -ch/artA a!!e!. Despite the lac( of information, there is some e#i!ence "-A' an! the %a#y are
alrea!y coor!inating their e*ercise an! e*perimentation plans to match up /ith A-& concepts. 1he Air 'orceQs
Joint )*pe!itionary 'orce )*periment franchise, a series of li#e, #irtual, an! constructe! e*periments run by the Air 'orce Comman!
an! Control ntegration Center, plans on focusing on Air-ea &attle concepts /ith the %a#y in 'iscal 4534.
ATH /&$get C&ts
Doesn-t affect na+al power
'&m%a&gh 1= 3:=, $Russell Rumbaugh is coJ!irector of the -timson CenterHs &u!geting for 'oreign Affairs an! Defense program. 1he -timson
Center is a nonprofit organiAation that see(s to strengthen institutions for peace an! security, buil! regional security an! re!uce /eapons of mass
!estruction an! transnational threats. Rumbaugh is a former Democratic staff member on the -enate &u!get Committee, 7BbamaHs !efense cuts are too
timi!,8 http9::///.cnn.com:4534:53:5=:opinion:rumbaughJ!efenseJcutbac(s:in!e*.html, AJ
1he biggest change is a smaller Army I reports suggest troop numbers !o/n to le#els last seen in the late 3<<5s. 1his change is ;ustifie! by
the strategyHs !eJemphasis of stability operations li(e ra@ an! Afghanistan an! rene/e! focus on Asia, /here
na+al an$ air forces are the main tool. f the strategyHs blueprint is follo/e!, /e coul! see a fun!amental change to
our force structure an! military postureI more airpower an$ na+al , an! fe/er groun! forces. 1hese
statements !onHt soun! li(e an o#erhaul in the Defense Department is imminent to reflect this ne/ strategy. Rather, the
a!ministration /ill more li(ely ma(e some marginal changes to meet the ne/ bu!get realities. 1he Army /ill
still prepare to fight highJintensity lan! campaigns. 1he Air 'orce /ill still prepare to achie#e air superiority.
1he %a#y /ill still prepare to maintain a presence on the seas. An! the Marines /ill still prepare to lan! on the
beaches. ,e may be at an inflection point, as the presi!ent sai!, but it is &nli#el! that inflection will affect the Pentagon
that m&ch .
(/ESITI
A&thor In$ict
(%esit! is a tin! health ris# , their e+i$ence is %iase$ e2aggeration
CCF @ (Center for Consumer 'ree!om, 7CDC Must Retract Bbesity Deaths -tu!y8,
http9::///.consumerfree!om.com:articleF!etail.cfm:article:3=3Un!Y3?
n the past fe/ years, the fe!eral go#ernment has /age! an all out /ar to scare Americans about our soJcalle! Mobesity
epi!emic.M 1he -urgeon General says itHs ;ust as !angerous as the threat of terrorism. A lea!ing Har#ar! e*pert compares obesity to a massi#e
tsunami hea!ing to/ar! American shores. 1he !irector of the CDC calle! it /orse than the &lac( Death. "nfortunately, trial la/yers /ho see !ollar signs
/here the rest of us see !inner ha#e seiAe! on the CDCHs 655,555 !eaths number to ;ustify their fri#olous crusa!es. %o/ /or! comes from
e*perts /ithin the CDC that e*cess /eight is about one?fifteenth as $angero&s as pre+io&sl! tho&ght, an!
has a lo/er !eath toll than !iseases li(e septicemia an! nephritis. )ach !eath is of course tragic. &ut has anyone hear! of the
septicemia Mepi!emicM or the nephritis MtsunamiMU t turns out that the P5 million Americans /ho are technically
7o#er/eight8 ha#e no increase$ mortalit! ris#. 1he real problems occur only among the small percentage of Americans /ith a
&o!y Mass n!e* of K> or more. 1o put that in perspecti#e, Mfat actressM 2irstie Alley an! Mfat a!ult actressM Anna %icole -mith both ha! a &M of K3 JJ
before they lost /eight. -hortly after the 655,555 stu!y /as publishe!, -cience magaAine reporte! on a storm /ithin CDCHs hea!@uarters. Many top
researchers /arne! a political agen$a to e2aggerate the ris# of obesity ha! trumpe! scientific concerns.
Debate /as suppresse!, an! at least one agency e*pert sai! he feare! spea(ing out /oul! cost him his ;ob. An internal in#estigation /as launche! soon
thereafter. 1he CDC burie! a summary of its fin!ings on their /ebsite, an! re@uests for the full report ha#e gone unfulfille!. &ut the o#er#ie/ !oes
ac(no/le!ge, Mthe fun!amental scientific problem centers aroun! the limitations in both the $ata an$ the
metho$olog!.M n January the CDC !isclose! that a small mathematical error ha! artificially raise! their 655,555 estimate by K>,555 !eaths.
-ome a!mission. f %A-A operate! this /ay, %eal Armstrong /oul! be lan!ing on Pluto about no/. ,hatHs the !ifference bet/een the original 655,555
statistic an! the up!ate! 4=,555 figureU Primarily, itHs that the ne/ stu!y uses more recent !ata. 1he 655,555 number too( !ata from as long ago as
3<6O an! !i!nHt a!;ust for impro#e! me!ical care. 1hose /ho /ere able to complete highJschool math an! note! this problem months ago can claim
some measure of #in!ication. "nbelie#ably, the CDC ha! the more recent !ata rea!ily a#ailable on its o/n computers. 1he CDC collects that !ata. ,hy
!i!nHt they use itU %o one is saying. %o/ a CDC scientist /ho coJauthore! the original 655,555 !eaths estimate a!mits the ne/ number is Ma step
for/ar!.M .et the agencyHs official position is that it /ill ta(e no position. 1he CDC proclaims the science is too ne/, !ebates about metho!ology M!etract
from the real issue,M an! /e shoul!nHt focus so much on obesity !eaths any/ay. 'unny. t !i!nHt ha#e any of these @uibbles /hen it announce! the
655,555 number an! sai! obesity /oul! soon become the number one cause of pre#entable !eath. tHs sai! that a lie can tra#el half/ay roun!
the /orl! /hile the truth is putting on its shoes. ,ell, the truth about obesity is finally lacing up. An! thatHs ba! ne/s for trial la/yers
pursuing obesity la/suits against foo! an! be#erage companies as /ell as the selfJappointe! !iet !ictators see(ing e*tra ta*es on foo!s they !onHt li(e.
Err Neg , there-s no scientific e+i$ence for their claims
/asham an$ )&i# D (Patric(, Director 0 Democracy nstitute, an! John, Health Policy ,riter, 7'our &ig, 'at Myths8, 1he 1elegraph, 33J4=,
http9::///.telegraph.co.u(:ne/s:u(ne/s:3>K>3P=:'ourJbig,JfatJmyths.html?
.et the obesity epi!emic is a m!th manufacture! by public health officials in concert /ith assorte! aca!emics an!
specialJinterest lobbyists. 1hese crusa!ers preach a sermon consisting of four obesity myths9 that /e an! our chil!ren are fatR that being
fat is a certain recipe for early !eathR that our fatness stems from the manufacturing an! mar(eting practices of the foo! in!ustry (hence
BfcomHs recently announce! ban on ;un( foo! a!#ertising to chil!ren?R an! that /e /ill lengthen our li#es if only /e eat less an! lose /eight. 1he
trouble is, there is no scientific e+i$ence to s&pport these m!ths. +etHs start /ith the myth of an
epi!emic of chil!hoo! obesity. 1he ;ustJpublishe! Health -ur#ey for )nglan!, 4556 !oes not sho/ a significant increase in the /eight of chil!ren
in recent years. 1he Department of Health report foun! that from 3<<> to 455K there /as only a oneJpoun! increase in chil!renHs a#erage /eight. %or
is there any e#i!ence in claims that o#er/eight an! obese chil!ren are !estine! to become o#er/eight an! obese a!ults.
1he 1housan! 'amilies -tu!y has researche! 3,555 %e/castle families since 3<>6. Res earchers ha#e foun! little connection bet/een
o#er/eight chil!ren an! a!ult obesity. n the stu!y, four out of fi#e obese people became obese as a!ults, not as chil!ren. 1here is not
e#en any compelling scientific e#i!ence to support the Go#ernmentHs claim that chil!hoo! obesity results in longJterm health
problems an! lo/ers oneHs life e*pectancy. n fact, the opposite may be true9 /e coul! be in !anger of creating a generation of chil!ren obsesse!
/ith their /eight /ith the conse@uent ris( of eating !isor!ers that really !o threaten their health. -tatistics on the numbers of chil!ren /ith eating
!isor!ers are har! to come by, but in the "- it is estimate! that 35 per cent of high school pupils suffer from them. Recent stu!ies sho/ a!ultsH attempts
to control chil!renHs eating habits result in chil!ren eating more rather than less. Parental finger /agging increases the li(elihoo! that chil!ren !e#elop
bo!yJimage problems as /ell as eating !isor!ers.
No Impact
(%esit! $oesn-t ca&se mass $eath , their st&$ies are wrong
)alas; 6 (Robert, -enior )!itor, 7,ill Rising Chil!hoo! Bbesity Decrease ".-. +ife )*pectancyU8, Population Reference &ureau, May,
http9::///.prb.org:Articles:455>:,illRisingChil!hoo!BbesityDecrease"-+ife)*pectancy.asp*UpY3?
Demographers Debate the +imits to +ife )*pectancy &ut other !emographers say the Blshans(y teamHs stu!y simplifies the comple*
interplay of factors that ha#e fuele! 45th century gains in life e*pectancy in the "nite! -tates an! other !e#elope! countries.
1hese analysts also characteriAe the stu!y as part of a !emographic para!igmIassuming a biological limit to life
e*pectancyIthat tren!s since 3<>5 ha#e cast into !oubt. MtHs a Malthusian e*ample of belief in the fi*ity of
nature,M says -amuel Preston, professor of !emography at the "ni#ersity of Pennsyl#ania an! the author of a re;oin!er to the Blshans(y stu!y in the
same issue of the %e/ )nglan! Journal of Me!icine. M1heir notion is that /e /ear out an! !ie an! thereHs nothing to be !one about it. 1he fact is
that /e ha#e been #ery successful at postponing !eath at ol!er ages, an! other countries ha#e been e#en more successful. tHs
ob#ious that /e shoul! e*pect the life e*pectancy DO4E that Japan has achie#e!.M MMany !emographers no/ accept that the %iological
ma2im&m is not so well set,M a!!s Christine Himes, a sociologist at -yracuse "ni#ersity. M1he Dsur#i#alE cur#es are no/ being
pushe! outImore people are li#ing past 355, an! more past 335. 1here may be some ma*imum, but itHs pretty far out there, past
345.M Preston ma(es three a!!itional points in !efen!ing con#entional life e*pectancy pro;ections9 that !ecreases
in the rate of !eath at ol!er ages in the "nite! -tates ha#e been constant since 3<>5, that e*trapolating from past tren!s
has pro#i!e! the best forecasts, an! that con#entional pro;ections ha#e alrea$! incorporate$ the recent rise in
obesity rates. M,e shoul! !o /hat /e can to re!uce le#els of obesity,M Preston says. M&ut there are no longJterm stu!ies of the effect
of chil!hoo! obesity on longJterm mortality. An! the claim this is going to offset all the factors /or(ing to increase life
e*pectancy an! result in a re!uction of life e*pectancy is inacc&rate.M -uch factors, he says, might inclu!e genetic engineering, a continuing
!ecline in the rates of infectious !iseases an! smo(ing, an! changes in public beha#ior, such as increasing con!om use among groups hit har!est by
HC:AD-. Blshans(y, ho/e#er, argues that future me!ical a!#ances /ill principally benefit ol!er people an! only incrementally boost life e*pectancy.
M,eH#e s@ueeAe! about as much longe#ity per person at younger ages through science as /e can,M he says. MChil! obesity /ill influence earlyJage
mortality, an! therein lies the !ifference. Any time you get one of these pulse e#entsI/ar, influenAa, obesity, AD-Iit affects earlyJage mortality
!isproportionately.M Bthers !ispute the Blshans(y st&$!7s metho$s . M-ome people ha#e trie! to forecast the future of mortality by
getting best guesses for each cause an! then trying to assemble them into an o#erall pro;ection, but that metho! has ne#er /or(e! #ery /ell,M says
Richar! -uAman, associate !irector of beha#ioral an! social research at the %ational nstitute on Aging. M1he mi* of factors at play is too large, an!
thereHs too much interrelation among them.M An! Himes, /ho stu!ies the effects of obesity on health an! functioning in later life, says the stu!y has
no empirical anal!sis of the specific effects of chil!hoo! obesity. MBlshans(yHs approach is prett! simplistic I
you canHt ;ust e*trapolate from current !eath rates by obesity status,M she says. M1hose rates aren7t 8&st %ase$ on
o%esit! alone, but on other factors as /ell.M 1he ne/ CDC stu!y has also raise! @uestions about Blshans(yHs
conclusions. ,hile it says that obesity (ille! almost 334,555 people in the "nite! -tates in 4554, it also conclu!es that being merely
o#er/eight (ha#ing a &M of 4>JK5? is associate! /ith a lo/er rate of mortality than that of un!er/eight people, especially after age
P5. &ut Blshans(y is uncon#ince! that obesity is less of a !anger, pointing out that many recent stu!ies point out /hat he calls a MstartlingM rise in
!iabetes rates.
Stat&s C&o Sol+es
The )et-s Mo+e initiati+e is helping to sol+e o%esit!
The New Ior# Time =51= (+ets Mo#e, -he -ai! 0 An! ,e Di! http9::opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com:4534:54:3K:letsJmo#eJsheJsai!J
an!J/eJha#e:?
During the first spring of the Bbama presi!ency, the 'irst +a!y bro(e groun! on a ,hite House #egetable
gar!en. 1hen, in 'ebruary 4535, she announce! the +etQs Mo#e initiati#e, a campaign to change the /ay
AmericaQs chil!ren eat an! e*ercise, /ith the goal of en!ing chil!hoo! obesity in a generation. n the years since, /hat
has Michelle BbamaQs /or( accomplishe!, besi!es (an! can say this from e*perience? the har#esting of some !elicious lettuce, green beans an! honeyU
1he ans/er is9 a lot. Bne of the most important results has been increasing public a/areness of the importance of
obesity. n 455O, o#er t/oJthir!s of a!ults an! a thir! of a!olescents an! chil!ren in the "nite! -tates /ere obese or o#er/eight. Although most
Americans alrea!y sa/ obesity as a ma;or problem, a ma;ority oppose! increasing fe!eral spen!ing to combat it. 1his attitu!e has begun to change. &y
4533, a Pe/ sur#ey foun! that most Americans belie#e the go#ernment shoul! play a significant role in re!ucing obesity among chil!ren. 1o!ay, O5
percent of Americans ac(no/le!ge that chil!hoo! obesity is a serious problem. Mrs. BbamaQs campaign has also le! to
impro#ements in the access to an! content of school meals I /hich are /here many chil!ren get the bul( of
their calories an! nutrition. n late 4535, the lameJ!uc( Congress passe! the Healthy, HungerJ'ree 2i!s Act
/hich, for the first time in K5 years, increase! fun!ing for school brea(fasts an! lunches abo#e the inflation
rate. 1he act also gi#es the Agriculture Department authority to set health stan!ar!s for all foo!s sol! on school
property I inclu!ing those in #en!ing machines. &est of all, it re!uce! go#ernment paper/or( to establish
eligibility for free or re!uce!Jprice school meals, ensuring that tens of thousan!s more chil!ren /ill get healthy
foo! they nee!.
(CEANS
A&thor In$ict
Io&r a&thors are pai$ off an$ $on-t &se goo$ $ata , oceans are resilient
'i$le! 15 (Matt, PhD, _oology, #isiting professor at Col! -pring Harbor +aboratory, June 3>, 4535, 71hreat
'rom Bcean Aci!ification Greatly )*aggerate!,8 http9::///.theg/pf.org:theJobser#atory:335=JmattJri!leyJ
threatJfromJoceanJaci!ificationJgreatlyJe*aggerate!.html, Hensel?
+est my critics still accuse me of cherryJpic(ing stu!ies, let me refer them also to the results of Hen!ri(set al. (4535, )stuarine, Coastal an! -helf -cience
O=93>P?. 'ar from being a cherryJpic(e! stu!y, this is a massi#e metaJanalysis. 1he authors obser#e! that [/arnings that ocean
aci!ification is a ma;or threat to marine bio!i#ersity are largely base! on the analysis of pre!icte! changes in
ocean chemical fiel!sQ rather than empirical !ata. -o they constructe! a !atabase of KP4 stu!ies in /hich the responses
of 66 !ifferent marine species to ocean aci!ification in!uce! by e@uilibrating sea/ater /ith CB4Jenriche! air ha! been actually measure!. 1hey foun!
that only a minority of stu!ies !emonstrate! [significant responses to aci!ificationQ an! there /as no significant
mean effect e#en in these stu!ies. 1hey conclu!e! that the worl$7s marine %iota are Umore resistant to ocean
aci$ification than s&ggeste$ %! pessimistic pre$ictions i$entif!ing ocean aci$ification as a
ma8or threat to marine %io$i+ersit!- an$ that ocean aci$ification Uma! not %e the wi$esprea$
pro%lem con8&re$ into the =1st cent&r!:/iological processes can pro+i$e homeostasis against
changes in p> in %&l# waters of the range pre$icte$ $&ring the =1st cent&r!.Q 1his important paper alone
contra!icts HoeghJGu!lbergQs assertion that [the #ast bul( of scientific e#i!ence sho/s that calcifiersV are being hea#ily impacte! alrea!yQ. n
conclusion, rest my case. My fi#e critics ha#e not only faile! to contra!ict, but ha#e e*plicitly confirme! the truth of e#ery single one of my factual
statements. ,e !iffer only in ho/ /e interpret the facts. t is har!ly surprising that my opinion is not share! by fi#e scientists /hose
research grants !epen! on fun!ing agencies being persua!e! that there /ill be a se#ere an! rapi! impact of
carbon !io*i!e emissions on coral reefs in coming !eca!es. merely report accurately that the latest empirical an! theoretical
research suggests that the li(ely impact has been e*aggerate!.
'esilient
(ceans are resilient , /P oil spill pro+es
National Meographic 11 (&rian Han!/er( 0 staff /riter, April 3<, 4533, 7Gulf Bil -pill Anni#ersary9
Resilience Ami! "n(no/ns,8 http9::ne/s.nationalgeographic.com:ne/s:4533:56:335645JgulfJoilJspillJ
anni#ersaryJyearJlaterJscienceJnationJen#ironment:, Hensel?
Bn the first anni#ersary of the Gulf oil spill, scientists caution that it coul! ta(e years to un!erstan! the full scope of the
!isaster. &ut many are encourage! because the !amage coul! ha#e been far /orseIan! nat&re is alrea$! showing signs of
resilience. Bn April 45, 4535, a massi#e e*plosion roc(e! the 1ransocean oil rig Deep/ater HoriAon, a stateJofJthe art mobile offshore !rilling
platform at /or( on a /ell in the Gulf of Me*ico. )le#en /or(ers /ere (ille! by the blast an! sur#i#ors ha! ;ust minutes to flee an inferno that /oul!
soon burn an! sin( the rig. 1he acci!ent unleashe! a torrent of oil that began roaring from an un!ergroun! Macon!o reser#oir into the Gulf /aters.
During the first fe/ frantic !ays of the &P crisis that became the /orst oil spill in ".-. history, e*perts ha! a har! time !etermining /hat /as happening
Imuch less /hat the spillHs ultimate en#ironmental an! economic conse@uences might be. As people aroun! the /orl! fi*ate! on oil spe/ing from a pipe
3 mile (3.= (ilometers? beneath the GulfHs surface, scientists clambere! to !iscern ;ust ho/ much /as gushing out. )stimates climbe! from 3,555 barrels
a !ay to 34,555 barrels to =4,555 barrels a !ay. )#en less certain /as ho/ the !amage! /ellhea! /oul! finally be plugge!Ian! for a /hile, people
feare! the lea( coul! continue for years. Authorities finally cappe! it in July. A spill that starte! /ith the tragic loss of life soon
/rought ma;or en#ironmental !e#astation o#er huge region of the Gulf. Disturbing images appeare! !aily of
oile! /il!life, iri!escent surface slic(s, o#er/helme! cleanup /or(ers, foule! beaches, burning oil fires, an!
blac(ene! /etlan!s. 1he !amage from nearly fi#e million barrels of oil /as #ery real, yet many e*pert pre!ictions misse! their
mar(s. Hurricanes !i!nHt !ri#e enormous @uantities of oil ashore, giant !ea! Aones !i!nHt materialiAe, an! oil
!i!nHt roun! the tip of 'lori!a to roc(et up the )ast Coast #ia the Gulf -tream. 'isheries no/ appear poise! to
reboun! instea! of suffering the barren years or !eca!es some feare!. An! Mother %ature ha! her o/n
surprises in store, sho/casing an ability to fight bac( against the spill an!, later, to bounce bac( from the
!amageIat least in the shortJterm.
(ceans are resilient , the! a%sor% C(=
'e$(r%it 5@ (Re!Brbit, citing -te#e Rintoul, PhD in Physical Bceanography, Common/ealth -cientific an!
n!ustrial Research Brganisation fello/, %o#ember 46, 455O, 7-outhern Bcean Resilient Against Global
,arming,8
http9::///.re!orbit.com:ne/s:science:3=54>4O:southernFoceanFresilientFagainstFglobalF/arming:,
Hensel?
A recent stu!y has foun! that the -outhern Bcean has pro#e! more resilient to global /arming than pre#iously thought
an! remains a ma;or store of man(in!Hs planetJ/arming carbon !io*i!e. Bceans act as a bra(e on climate
change by absorbing large portions of the e*tra CB4 release! by man(in! through burning fossil fuels or !eforestation
an! e*perts say the -outhern Bcean is the largest of these Mcarbon sin(s.M Researchers in the past ha#e suggeste! the #ast ocean
bet/een Australia an! Antarctica /as losing its potency because climate change ha! affecte! its currents an! increase! po/erful /esterly /in!s. 1he
analysis bet/een shipJbase! measurements of the ocean since the 3<=5s an! more recent !ata from hun!re!s
of robotic floats sho/s the -outhern Bcean has maintaine! its ability to soa( up e*cess carbon !espite changes
to currents an! /in! spee!s. MtHs a positi#e thing. tHs one thing it loo(s li(e /e !onHt ha#e to /orry about as much as /e thought,M sai! -te#e
Rintoul of the Center for Australian ,eather an! Climate Research, part of a team researchers that also inclu!e! scientists from the nstitute for Marine
Research at the "ni#ersity of 2iel in Germany. 1he ne/ !ata as /ell as pre#ious stu!ies sho/e! the -outhern Bcean /as
becoming /armer, an! also fresher, Rintoul sai!. 1he stu!y /as publishe! this /ee( in %ature Geoscience. 1he !ata on salinity an!
temperature allo/e! the team to measure the !ensity of sea/ater an! ho/ that !ensity change! from one place to another in relation to ho/ fast /ater
/as mo#ing bet/een t/o places. M&y loo(ing at the !ensity /e coul! say something about the /ay the ma;or currents /ere or /ere not changing. MAn!
this /as the surprise. ,e foun! that the currents ha! not change!. 1hey ha! shifte! their position, theyH! shifte! closer to
Antarctica but not become stronger or /ea(er.M
(ceans are resilient
IT(PF 15 (nternational 1an(er B/ners 'e!eration +t!., 'ebruary 4535, 7Reco#ery,8
http9::///.itopf.com:marineJspills:effects:reco#ery:, Hensel?
Marine organisms ha#e #arying !egrees of nat&ral resilience to changes in their habitats . 1he natural a!aptations
of populations of animals an! plants to cope /ith en#ironmental stress, combine! /ith their bree!ing strategies,
pro#i!e important mechanisms for coping /ith the !aily an! seasonal fluctuations in their habitats an! for reco#ering
from pre!ation an! other stochastic e#ents. -ome natural phenomena can be highly !estructi#e. 1he shortJterm po/er of hurricanes
an! tsunamis can easily be appreciate!, as can the !amage they cause. 1he cyclical )l %ifo phenomenon has ma;or longJterm conse@uences for marine
organisms, seabir!s an! marine mammals throughout the entire Pacific Bcean. Brganisms suffer un!er such onslaughts, but after /hat is
often se#ere !isruption an! /i!esprea! mortality, the marine populations reJestablish themsel#es o#er a perio! of time an!
this process constitutes natural reco#ery. An important repro!ucti#e strategy for many marine organisms is
the pro!uction of #ast numbers of eggs an! lar#ae /hich are release! into the plan(ton an! are /i!ely
!istribute! by currents. 1his mechanism has e#ol#e! to ta(e ma*imum a!#antage of a#ailable space an!
resources in marine habitats an! to !eal /ith e.g. pre!ation. n some cases, only one or t/o in!i#i!uals in a million actually
sur#i#e through to a!ulthoo!. A less common repro!ucti#e strategy that is generally restricte! to longJli#e! species that !o not reach se*ual maturity for
many years is to pro!uce relati#ely fe/, /ellJ!e#elope!, offspring. 1hese species are better a!apte! to stable habitats an! en#ironments an! as a result,
their populations are li(ely to ta(e much longer to reco#er from the pressures of localise! mortality e.g. the effects of an oil spill. ,hilst there may be
consi!erable !ebate o#er /hat constitutes reco#ery, there is a /i!esprea! acceptance that natural #ariability in systems
ma(es getting bac( to the e*act preJspill con!ition unli(ely, an! most current !efinitions of reco#ery focus on
the reJestablishment of a community of plants an! animals /hich are characteristic of the habitat an! are
functioning normally in terms of bio!i#ersity an! pro!ucti#ity.
Forests sol+e oceans
Swanson 5P (2ent, 455<, 735 -teps to a Healthy Bcean9 Protecting our Bceans from Pollution,8 Practical
)n#ironmentalist, http9::///.practicalen#ironmentalist.com:gar!ening:35JstepsJtoJaJhealthyJoceanJ
protectingJourJoceansJfromJpollution.htm, Hensel?
&iosystems are natureQs utilities 0 they !esalinate /ater, absorb carbon, liberate nutrients from the groun!, an! pro#i!e other ser#ices free of charge.
1he plants an! animals that ma(e up these systems are often treate! as commo!ities, but (illing the goose that lays gol!en eggs /ill only put foo! on the
table for a !ay. Protecting biosystems can pay !i#i!en!s for years to come. Forests are an essential %&ffer for the oceans. Bl!
gro/th trees neutraliAe the pH of rain an! absorb harmful chemicals before they reach the ocean. 1rees that
gro/ in estuaries an! along ri#er/ays are especially important, but those areas also face increase! !e#elopment pressure an! they are
easy for loggers to access. -horeline habitat is being !estroye! to buil! giant shrimp farms an! resort hotels. +uc(ily, there are no/ sustainable
forestry an! a@uaculture options a#ailable. -ustainable logging allo/s limite! har#esting of resources /ithout !estroying the natural
processes that /e benefit from. 1he ne*t time you buy lumber or lan!, !o some research an! chec( for certifications of sustainability.

(I) DEPENDENCEES>(CQS
No Depen$ence , *C
*S is $ecreasing foreign oil $epen$ence
See#ing Alpha 1= >:4>, 7A -urprising An! Promising 1ren! n 1he ".-. )conomy9 -harply Declining Bil mports,8
http9::see(ingalpha.com:article:=3PKP3JaJsurprisingJan!JpromisingJtren!JinJtheJuJsJeconomyJsharplyJ!ecliningJoilJimports, AJ
,eH#e all been hearing about all (in!s of ominous !e#elopments, an! certainly the last fe/ /ee(s ha#e not been fertile groun! for optimism. /as,
therefore, surprise! on going through energy statistics /hen !isco#ere! the po/erful tren! that has recently emerge! in the "nite!
-tates economy9 (il imports are going $own at a stea$! pace . n fact, oil imports ha#e plummete!. %et
imports of oil an! refine! pro!ucts (total imports of cru!e an! refine! pro!ucts minus e*ports of cru!e an! refine! pro!ucts? ha#e
!ecline! from 34.K=K million barrels per !ay in January an! 'ebruary 455= to P.PO6 million barrels per !ay in
the same t/o months of 4534. ,hile net import figures are not a#ailable for more recent time perio!s, other !ata suggests that the tren! is
continuing. During this same time perio!, net imports from Cana!a ha#e actually been increasing from 4.44P million barrels per !ay in 455= to 4.=K<
barrels per !ay in 4534. As a result, net imports from the rest of the /orl! e* Cana!a ha#e been cut almost in half from 35.KK= million barrels per !ay in
455= to >.>=P million barrels per !ay in 4534. 1here are a fe/ complicate! mo#ing parts behin! these numbers. 1here has been a huge
increase (roughly a tripling? in the e*port of refine! pro!ucts from the "nite! -tates. Apparently /hat has happene! is that,
as !omestic !eman! for gasoline an! !istillate has !ecline!, the ".-. refinery in!ustry has more refinery capacity than is
necessary for the ".-. mar(et an! is no/ refining cru!e oil in or!er to supply refine! pro!ucts to the e*port
mar(et. ,hile total imports are !o/n some/hat, net imports are !o/n much more because of the large increase in e*ports
of refine! pro!ucts. &ehin! this tren! are se#eral (ey !e#elopments. Domestic oil pro$&ction has increase$ more
than 1 million %arrels per !ay !uring this time perio! (this increase in !omestic oil pro!uction is an
important part of the increase! real GDP !uring this time perio!?. n a!!ition, !espite the fact that real GDP
has increase!, !omestic consumption of petroleum an! petroleum pro!ucts has $ecrease$ %! more than 9 million
%arrels per $a! !uring the same time perio!. 1his appears to be partly !ue to increase! pro!uction of
ethanol (/hich !isplaces gasoline?, increase! #ehicle mileage (as more fuel efficient ne/ cars enter the mar(et?, less !ri#ing, relati#ely /arm /inters,
an! some !isplacement of oil by natural gas in the heating an! transportation mar(ets. 1hese tren!s seem to be continuing an!, /hile /e still import a
tremen!ous amount of oil, the strategic an! economic #ulnerability of the "nite! -tates to the /orl! oil mar(et may be
on the !ecline. ,hat are the implications of this !e#elopment for in#estors an! for the country in generalU 'irst of all, it may pro!uce a
change in the nature of the business cycle. n the past, #irtually e#ery recession coinci!e! /ith a run up in oil
prices. >igher oil prices s&c#e$ $ollars o&t of the *.S. econom! an!, at the same, create! inflationary
pressures /hich le! to monetary tightening ;ust as consumers ha! less money to spen! because of higher
gasoline prices. ,hile ".-. gasoline prices /ill still be !ri#en by /orl! oil prices, a price increase /ill not suc(
as much money out of the !omestic economy an! /ill lea!, instea!, to a shifting aroun! of /ealth an! economic
acti#ity /ithin the "nite! -tates (an! its #ery economically integrate! neighbor, Cana!a?. -econ!ly, national security policy may be
sub;ect to a change in emphasis. 1o the !egree that the "nite! -tates is less #ulnerable to an interruption in oil
imports, /e may see the use of the -trategic Petroleum Reser#e as a price stabiliAer rather than a true strategic bac(stop. n a!!ition, the "nite!
-tates may pursue other goals in Mi!!le )astern policy /ith more !etermination. Bf course, other countries are importing
more an! more oil all the time an! /e may come to a point at /hich China becomes a ma;or player in the Mi!!le )ast. 'ourth an! most importantly,
thin( that the tren! illustrates the beginnings of a longJterm !isplacement of petroleum by natural gas in the
transportation mar(et /hich /ill probably start in the more a!#ance! economies. Nat&ral gas has alrea$!
$isplace$ some 655555 %arrels of oil per month in the transportation mar(et . 1his is a pro#erbial M!rop in the
buc(etM, but the tren! is stea!y an! po/erful an! companies li(e Clean )nergy 'uels (C+%)? are poise! to ta(e a!#antage of the tren! as it accelerates.
)ach economic reco#ery an! e*pansion emphasiAes certain sectors of the economy J tech in the 3<<5s, housing
in the 4555s. t is li(ely that a renaissance in the ".-. energy in!ustry /ill be an important part of an!
f&rther leg &p in the *.S. econom!. Pic(ing /inners an! losers /ithin the in!ustry is still !ifficult although the ma;ors, inclu!ing
)**on (XBM? an! Conoco (CBP?, loo( #ery cheap at these price le#els.
No Econom! Impact
No impact on the econom!
Qha$$&ri 11 (,ali!, M))- Consultant, former Mi!!le )ast )conomic -ur#ey )!itorJinJChief, August 4K,
4533, 7,ali! 2ha!!uri9 1he impact of rising oil prices on the economies of importing nations,8 Al Arabiya
%e/s, http9::english.alarabiya.net:#ie/s:4533:5O:4K:3=K><5.html, Hensel?
,hat is the impact of oil price shoc(s on the economies of importing nationsU At first glance, there appears to be largeJscale
an! e*tremely a!#erse repercussions for rising oil prices. Ho/e#er, a stu!y publishe! this month by researchers in the M' ,or(ing
Paper group suggests a !ifferent picture altogether (it is /orth mentioning that the M' has not en!orse! its fin!ings.? 1he stu!y (1obias
%. Rasmussen W Agustin Roitman, MBil -hoc(s in a Global Perspecti#e9 Are 1hey Really 1hat &a!UM, M' ,or(ing Paper, August 4533? mentions that
7"sing a comprehensi+e glo%al $ataset DVE /e fin! that the impact of higher oil prices on oilJimporting
economies is generally small9 a 4> percent increase in oil prices typically causes GDP to fall by about half of one
percent or less.8 1he stu!y elaborates on this by stating that this impact !iffers from one country to another, !epen!ing on the siAe of oilJimports,
as 7oil price shoc(s are not al/ays costly for oilJimporting countries9 although higher oil prices increase the import bill, there are
partly offsetting increases in e2ternal receipts Drepresente! in ne/ an! a!!itional e*pen!itures borne by both oilJe*porting
an! oilJimporting countriesE8. n other /or!s, the more oil prices increase, benefiting e*porting countries, the more these
new re+en&es are rec!cle$, for e*ample through the gro/th in !eman! for ne/ ser#ices, labor, an! commo!ity
imports. 1he researchers argue that the series of oil price rallies (in 3<OK, 3<<=, 455>, an! 455<? ha#e playe! an important role in recessions in the
"nite! -tates. Ho/e#er, Rasmussen an! Roitman state at the same time that significant changes in the *.S.
econom! in the pre#ious perio! (the appearance of combine! elements, such as impro#ements in monetary policy, the
institution of a labor mar(et more fle*ible than before an! a relati#ely smaller usage of oil in the ".-. economy? has
greatl! mitigate$ the negati+e effects of oil prices on the ".-. economy . A 35 percent rise in oil prices before
3<O6, for instance, use! to lo/er the ".-. GDP by about 5.P percent o#er t/o to three years, /hile this figure starte!
shrin(ing to no more than 5.4> percent after 3<O6, o/ing to these accumulate! economic changes. 1his means that /hile oil price shoc(s
continue to a!#ersely impact the ".-. economy, the latter has manage!, as a result of the changes that transpire! follo/ing the first shoc( in
the se#enties, to o#ercome these shoc(s, an! subse@uently, the impact of oil price shoc(s has become e2tremel!
limite$ compare! to pre#ious perio!s.
Prefer o&r e+i$ence , o&r st&$ies are the most acc&rate an$ comprehensi+e
Qha$$&ri 11 (,ali!, M))- Consultant, former Mi!!le )ast )conomic -ur#ey )!itorJinJChief, August 4K,
4533, 7,ali! 2ha!!uri9 1he impact of rising oil prices on the economies of importing nations,8 Al Arabiya
%e/s, http9::english.alarabiya.net:#ie/s:4533:5O:4K:3=K><5.html, Hensel?
1he significance of this stu!y lies in its in#estigation of the impact of rising oil prices worl$wi$e , especially in
!e#eloping countries, in contrast /ith the limite$ foc&s on the *nite$ States or the ,estern in!ustrialiAe! countries in
other similar a#ailable literature. 1hus, the researchers !raft a comprehensi+e glo%al portrait of the
intert/ine! relationship bet/een cru!e oil prices on the one han!, an! economic pro!uction an! international
tra!e on the other. 1hey thus conclu!e that 7the results sho/ that these correlations ha#e, across the /orl!, usually been
positi+e. High oil prices ha#e generally coinci!e! /ith goo$ times for the worl$ econom! , especially in recent years.8
No 4ar
No oil war
Elan$ 11 34:43, $#an )lan! is -enior 'ello/ an! Director of the Center on Peace W +iberty at 1he n!epen!ent nstitute, 7%o ,ar for Bil9 "-
Depen!ency an! the Mi!!le )ast,8 http9::original.anti/ar.com:elan!:4533:34:45:noJ/arJforJoilJusJ!epen!encyJan!JtheJmi!!leJeast:, AJ
1he one prominent issue that both American political parties can seemingly agree on is that the ".-. shoul! be
less !epen!ent on foreign oil. An! -anta Claus has apparently listene! an! grante! their /ish. 1he "nite! -tates is in the mi!st of a
miniJoil boom, /hich has re#erse!, at least temporarily, the countryQs increasing !epen!ence on foreign
sources of oil. Bil e*tracte! from shale !eposits in %orth Da(ota, Montana, an! 1e*as has re#erse! years of
!ecreasing American oil pro!uction, lea$ing to increase$ $omestic e2traction an$ th&s re$&cing
$epen$ence on o+erseas oil from D5 percent of ".-. consumption in 455> to a little less than half no/.
A!! to this the e*ports from Cana!a of oil from tar san!s for refining in ".-. refineries (some of /hich /ill come through
the future 2eystone pipeline?, an! the "nite! -tates /ill be, for the first time since 3<6<, a net e*porter of petroleum pro!ucts,
such as ;et fuel, gasoline, !iesel fuel, an! heating oil. -houl!nQt the t/o parties pat themsel#es on the bac(U After all, un!er their
ste/ar!ship, arenQt /e re!ucing !epen!ence on the terrorist nations an! !ictatorships of the Persian GulfU %ot really. Depen!ence on foreign
oil is not the problem that con#entional /is!om ma(es it out to be. As a corollary, all the /ars /e ha#e fought
o#er oil I for e*ample, t/o /ith ra@ an! the threat of such /ith ran I ha#e been largely unnecessary an!
immensely e*pensi#e. Bf the less than half of ".-. petroleum consume! that is importe!, about half of that
comes from the ,estern Hemisphere. (nl! a%o&t 1@ percent of imports originate from the Persian
M&lf. &ut it /oul! not matter much if the "nite! -tates pro!uce! 355 percent of /hat it consume! or /hether it all
came from the Persian Gulf, because the price at the pump is !etermine! by the /orl!/i!e oil mar(et. f more
oil is put on mar(et from any/here aroun! the globe, the price /ill go !o/nR similarly, if oil pro$&ction is
c&t an!where in the worl$ an$ not offset %! increases elsewhere the price will go &p. 1hus, this
American miniJboom /ill not li(ely ma(e much of a !ifference in /hat the ".-. consumer pays for gasoline,
!iesel fuel, or heating oil. &ut at least /e !onQt ha#e to buy as much oil or petroleum pro!ucts from Persian Gulf
autocracies or terroristJsponsoring nations, rightU Maybe so, but it !oesnQt re!uce our imports from those nations that much.
Also, if the "nite! -tates is no/ a net e*porter of petroleum pro!ucts, shoul!nQt /e stanch this flo/ an! buy from the Persian Gulf
e#en lessU %o. )#en if nations such as ran an! -au!i Arabia !i!nQt sell to the "nite! -tates (come to thin( of it, the ".-. hasnQt
bought oil from ran in !eca!es?, the! wo&l$ simpl! sell to other , more than /illing buyers. 1he rapi!ly gro/ing
countries in the !e#eloping /orl! I such as China an! n!ia I care a lot less about the political nature of the
countries supplying their oil than !o the "nite! -tates an! )urope. -o embargoes, boycotts, an! efforts at becoming oilJ
in!epen!ent ha#e little effect. -upplies ;ust reor!er aroun! obstacles in the /orl! mar(et. &ut !i!nQt /orl! oil
pro!uction pea( in 455=, as the nternational )nergy Agency conclu!e! probably occurre!U DoesnQt this con!emn the /orl! to fighting more future /ars
o#er !/in!ling petroleum resourcesU %o. 'irst of all, 7e2pertsB ha+e %een repeate$l! pre$icting the $epletion of the
worl$-s oil reser+es since the late 1@55s %&t it ne+er seems to happen . %e/ technologies an!
perio!ic higher prices ma(e pre#iously uneconomic !eposits #iable I such as the tar san!s an! shale oil that
ha#e recently become economic I thus sustaining /orl! pro!uction. -econ!, aca!emic research has in!icate!
that conflicts are much more li(ely o#er allocation of money recei#e! from abun!ant natural resources (for
e*ample, fighting in %igeria o#er /ho gets procee!s from oil e*ports? than conflict o#er scarce resources that can be price! in a
mar(et. 1hat is, it is cheaper to pa! the mar#et price than to go to war . -o if that is true I an! it has been true
since the classical economists !isco#ere! in the late 3P55s that empire !i!nQt pay I then /hy has the ".-. military, o#er the years,
essentially become an oilJprotection forceU Coul! it be that the ".-. is not aggressi#ely employing military
po/er to ensure that it has oil supplies I as the mperial Japanese !i! before an! !uring ,orl! ,ar I but
is instea! using the threat of arme! force to (eep a thumb on the oil lifelines of other nations (for e*ample,
China?U
So&th American an$ SP' Sol+e
So&th America an$ the SP' sol+e the impact
Singh 1= (Michael, managing !irector of the ,ashington nstitute, January K, 4534, 71he real ranian threat
in the Gulf,8 'oreign Policy,
http9::sha!o/.foreignpolicy.com:posts:4534:53:5K:theFrealFiranianFthreatFinFtheFgulfU
hi!ecommentsYyes, Hensel?
ranHs bellicose rhetoric an! Gulf /argames in recent !ays ha#e gi#en rise to the @uestion of /hether 1ehran coul! close the -trait of
HormuA. As many analysts ha#e obser#e!, the ans/er is no JJ not for a meaningful perio! of time. +ess fre@uently a!!resse!,
ho/e#er, is /hether ran /oul! e#en try. 1he ans/er to that @uestion is also MnoM JJ e#en the attempt /oul! ha#e !e#astating strategic
conse@uences for ran. 1he presumable target of an ranian effort to close the -trait /oul! be the "nite! -tates. Ho/e#er, /hile /e /oul! of
course be affecte! by any resulting rise in global oil prices, the *.S. gets little of o&r petrole&m from the M&lf. 1he ".-.
imports only about 6< percent of the petroleum /e consume, an! o#er half of those imports come from the
4estern >emisphere. +ess than 4> percent of ".-. imports came from all the Gulf countries combine! in
Bctober 4533 JJ far less than is a#ailable in the *.S. Strategic Petrole&m 'eser+e , /ere Gulf supplies to be interrupte!.
SC Sol+es
S.&o sol+es???clean tech in$&str! sol+es the econom! offshoring competiti+eness
en+ironmental pro%lems an$ oil $epen$ence
>all DE=5 4534, $Cha! Hall is a foun!er an! #ice presi!ent of sales at o*us, nc., focusing on )uropean sales. He also /rites for )n#ironmental W
)nergy Management %e/s, 7Cleantech n!ustry Po/ers "- )conomy /ith Job Creation,8
http9::///.en#ironmentallea!er.com:4534:5=:45:cleantechJin!ustryJpo/ersJusJeconomyJ/ithJ;obJcreation:, AJ
Mreen technolog! not onl! helps to s&stain the en+ironment %&t it also helps to s&stain the *S
econom! %! pro+i$ing new 8o%s. A &roo(ings nstitution report estimates that bet/een 455O an! 4533, the number of green
;obs in the "- gre/ 4=5 percent from P>5,555 to 4.P million. Much of this ;ob creation stems from the
increase! a/areness of, an! !eman! for, green technology by the consuming public. ,ith an increase! focus on
;ob creation !uring this election year, one particular sector has seen ongoing gro/th9 manufacturing. Accor!ing to the "-
&ureau of +abor -tatisticsQ April 4534 )mployment -ituation -ummary, the manufacturing in!ustry a!!e! 6O<,555 ;obs in the "-
since January 4535. ,ith the high !eman! for green technology an! sustainable energy solutions comes the
gro/th of ;obs in the cleantech manufacturing in!ustry. 1he &roo(ings nstitution also reports more ;obs in the
green technology an! rene/able energy in!ustries than in the fossil fuel sector, /ith 4= percent of cleantech
;obs being in manufacturing. An increase in ;ob creation /ill !irectly impact the !omestic economy an! ;ob
mar(etIso long as /e ma(e manufacturing a!#ancements in the "- an! create an! sustain the ;obs.
De#eloping an! manufacturing energy storage technology !omestically results in national profit from cost
sa#ings, en#ironmental benefits, increase! ;ob a#ailability an! national competiti+e a$+antage . Accor!ing to a
recent report by the "- -mall &usiness A!ministration, small businesses outperforme! large companies in net ;ob creation by about P> percent from
3<<4J4535. 1his gro/th couple! /ith the nationQs entrepreneurial spirit contributes to the "nite! -tatesQ competiti#e
a!#antage by inno#ating, creating ;obs an! stimulating economic reco#ery. Another stu!y by the "- -mall &usiness
A!ministration fin!s small businesses responsible for much of the green technology inno#ation. -mall businesses hol! 36 percent of all "- green
technology patents. Gi#en the ;ob creation by small businesses couple! /ith the inno#ation /ithin the green
technology space, it only ma(es sense that opportunities /ith small businesses in green technologies /ill
aboun!. n a!!ition to creating ne/ ;obs in the clean technology manufacturing space, we-re also witnessing increases in
American companies reshoring an$ %ringing 8o%s %ac# home . ,hile offshoring /as once popular !ue
to the re!uce! operational costs in o#erseas mar(ets, reshoring has a gro/ing appeal !ue to such factors as high fuel prices
raising shipping an! transport costs. A sur#ey con!ucte! by engineering professor an! supplyJchain e*pert, Da#i! -imchiJ+e#i of the
Massachusetts nstitute of 1echnology, foun! that K< percent of ".-. manufacturers /ere contemplating mo#ing some of
their manufacturing operations bac( to the "-. &y reshoring #arious business operations an! not ;ust manufacturing ;obs,
companies not only help the American ;ob mar(et, but also gain better @uality control. 1here is #alue an! pri!e
in ha#ing a pro!uct labele! as both a green technology an! 7ma!e in America.8 Domestic manufacturing of
clean technology impro#es a companyQs image /ith both internal an! e*ternal sta(ehol!ers, creating pri!e
among employees an! a strong reputation /ith the public an! customers. %ot only that, but it taps into a sense of
patriotism for ha#ing impacte! the ".-. economy by pro!ucing more e*ports an! more !omestic ;obs. f the "-
fails to ta(e the initiati#e to !esign an! manufacture inno#ations in rene/able energy, /e /ill miss out, an! our foreign
competitors /ill reap the benefits. ,e /ill mo#e from a !epen!ency on foreign oil to a !epen!ency on foreign
energy storage. Presi!ent Bbama echoe! this sentiment in his -tate of the "nion a!!ress in January, proposing ta* incenti#es for companies
bringing their operations bac( to the ".-. an! ta* penalties for those /ho !o not. He !eclare!, 7tQs time to stop re/ar!ing businesses
that ship ;obs o#erseas, an! start re/ar!ing companies that create ;obs right here in America.8 Cleantech
man&fact&ring pro+i$es the necessar! s&pport to increase the nation-s renewa%le energ!
o&tp&t . CostJefficiency, sa#ings an! a greater number of ;obs are great per(s resulting from the gro/th of the
cleantech in!ustry, but the main goal of clean technolog! remains the wi$esprea$ a$option of
renewa%le energ! applications for a cleaner more s&staina%le en+ironment.
(3E'P(P*)ATI(N
No Escalation
Pop&lation growth sol+es itself thro&gh inno+ation
M&lligan P (Casey &., Prof. of )conomics g "Chicago, -eptember 4K, http9::economi*.blogs.nytimes.com:455<:5<:4K:theJmoreJtheJmerrierJ
populationJgro/thJpromotesJinno#ation:?
A recent stu!y reiterate! the conclusion that population gro/th ought to be controlle! in or!er to combat global /arming, an! other /orl!
problems. beg to !iffer. 1he authors of stu!ies li(e these ha#e e*aggerate! the benefits of population control,
because they ignore some of the significant economic benefits of large populations. -tuart sett for 1he %e/ .or(
1imes Rush hour in a -hanghai sub/ay. 1he !irectorJgeneral of "nicef has been @uote! as saying, 7'amily planning coul! bring more
benefits to more people at less cost than any other single technology no/ a#ailable to the human race.8 An!
one of the benefits of re!uce! population, it is claime!, is re!uce! carbon emissions an! therefore mitigation of climate change. 1his statement
ta(es technology for grante!, yet technology itself !epen!s on population. )specially important among the sources of technical
progress I !isco#eries I are trial an! error, an! incenti#es. Reasonable people can !isagree about the relati#e importance of these t/o, but both are
stimulate! by population. 1he more people on earth, the greater the chance that one of them has an i!ea of ho/ to
impro#e alternati#e energies, or to mitigate the climate effects of carbon emissions. t ta(es only one person
to ha#e an i!ea that can benefit many. Plus, the more people on earth, the larger are the mar(ets for ne/
inno#ations. 1hus, e#en if the brilliant inno#ators /oul! be born regar!less of population control, their
incenti#es to !e#ote effort to/ar! fin!ing ne/ !isco#eries an! bringing them to the mar(etplace !epen! on
the siAe of that mar(etplace. An! itQs clear that incenti#es matter for inno#ati#e acti#ity9 1hatQs /hy /e ha#e a patent system that helps
inno#ators obtain financial re/ar!s for their in#entions. %ot surprisingly, research has sho/n that mar(et siAe stimulates inno#ati#e acti#ity, as in
the case of pharmaceutical research that is especially intense for con!itions that ha#e more #ictims. t may ta(e a long time for
population gro/th to either gi#e birth to an in#entor brilliant enough, or moti#ate enough incenti#es, to
ha#e an impact on the climate. &ut thatQs not a reason to turn to population control, because it also ta(es a
long time for population controlQs impact to be noticeable. Although the calculations are inherently uncertain, the #alue of
the a!!itional inno#ation stimulate! by a!!itional population may be significant. n my aca!emic /or( ha#e
calculate! that the #alue, to the entire mar(etplace through this channel, of an a!!itional person may be on the same or!er of magnitu!e of the #alue
that person places on his o/n life. 'or e*ample, a person /ho can earn T4 million in his o/n lifetime may, by his presence in the /orl!/i!e
mar(etplace, stimulate inno#ati#e acti#ity that is /orth a fe/ hun!re! thousan! !ollars. 1he role of technical change has been
repeate!ly un!erestimate!. 'or e*ample, someone a century ago /ho claime! that the earth coul! ha#e
enough foo! to support nine billion people (population control a!#ocates no/ thin( that the earthQs
population can easily get there? /oul! ha#e been consi!ere! craAy. &ut /ith to!ayQs technology it is easy to
see ho/ many billions can be fe!. -ome of the important solutions to climate change /ill also come from
technological progress.
No Impact
(+erpop&lation $oesn-t lea$ to war or star+ation an$ ca&ses technological growth
)e#gotla 15 (-taff, March 4O, http9::le(gotlame!iane/s.co.Aa:/eb:4535:5K:o#erpopulationJinJfactJmoreJafricansJmeansJmoreJinno#ationJan!J
gro/th:?
)ntrepreneur, philanthropist an! #isionary Mo brahim belie#e AfricaQs increasing population /ill ser#e as a blessing, not a
curse, /hen it comes to the rising numbers of people on the continent. %umerous economists agree. ,ith an increase!
population come greater number of consumers, pro!ucers an! inno#ati#e min!s. ,hile the common response by
many to population increases is concern, particularly o#er the a#ailability of resources such as foo! an! fresh /ater, a #ariety of e*perts belie#e
there is no o#erpopulation threat to the continent. Bn the contrary many, li(e 2athleen 2asun in the "-, say AfricaQs threat is not an
increase in the number of her people, but rather the le#els of free!om the continentQs chil!ren can en;oy. n her /i!ely cite! /or(, 1he Myths of
B#erpopulation, 2asun notes that as it is, Africa is the /orl!Qs least population continent. -tar#ation an! hunger ha#e been cause! by faile!
economic policy an! go#ernments that un!ermine liberty, as oppose! to the notion that there is a nee! to re!uce the number of Africans in or!er to
help Africa. n!ianJborn %obel PriAe /inner Amartya -en famously pointe! out that no !emocracy has e#er e*perience! a famine, a
sure in!icator of the relationship bet/een free institutions an! national /ellbeing. 2asun notes that problems
commonly blame! on 7o#erpopulation8 are the result of ba! economic policy. 7'or e*ample, ,estern ;ournalists blame!
the )thiopian famine on 7o#erpopulation,8 but that /as simply not true. 1he )thiopian go#ernment cause! it by confiscating the foo! stoc(s of
tra!ers an! farmers an! e*porting them to buy arms. 1hat countryQs leftist regime, not its population, cause! the trage!y.8 7n fact, Africa, beset /ith
problems often blame! on 7o#erpopulation,8 has only oneJfifth the population !ensity of )urope, an! has an une*ploite! foo!Jraising potential that
coul! fee! t/ice the present population of the /orl!, accor!ing to estimates by Roger Re#elle of Har#ar! an! the "ni#ersity of -an Diego.
)conomists /riting for the nternational Monetary 'un! in 3<<6 sai! that African economic problems result from e*cessi#e go#ernment spen!ing,
high ta*es on farmers, inflation, restrictions on tra!e, too much go#ernment o/nership, an! o#erregulation of pri#ate economic acti#ity. 1here /as
no mention of o#erpopulation.8 2asun a!!s that as the 7most /arJtorn continent on earth (Africa? is also one of the least
!ensely populate!, /ith about half as many people per s@uare mile as in the /orl! as a /hole.8
Pop&lation growth is &nrelate$ to war or warming
/roc#wa! P (-an!i, 'reelance ,riter, January 4>, http9::///.transitionto/nsca.org:profiles:blogs:35JreasonsJtoJrethin(?
Population gro/th is not the !ri#ing force behin! en#ironmental !egra!ation. &laming en#ironmental
!egra!ation on o#erpopulation lets the real culprits off the hoo(. 1he richest fifth of the /orl!Hs people
consume == times as many resources as the poorest fifth. 1he ".-., /ith a lo/ fertility rate, is the largest emitter of greenhouse
gases responsible for global /arming. >. P opulation pressure is not a root cause of political insecurity an! conflict.
)specially since <:33, conflict in the Mi!!le )ast has been lin(e! to a Hyouth bulgeH of too many young men /hose
numbers suppose!ly ma(e them prone to #iolence. &laming population pressure for instability ta(es the onus off po/erful
actors an! political choices.
*C , /irth 'ates )ow
/irth rates low , we-re 8&st e2periencing the lag
)e#gotla 15 (-taff, July 4K, http9::le(gotlame!iane/s.co.Aa:/eb:4535:5P:!ontJblameJtheJbabies:?
1he !isaster !u ;our /as the threat of o#erpopulation. -o, it /as /ith interest that rea! a column recently on the
en#ironmentalist /ebsite, Grist, /hich referre! to o#erpopulation as a 7green myth8 an! 7!angerous
nonsense8. 1he author, 're! Pearce, also remembers 7being scare!8 by 7the population bombV 65 years ago as a
school(i!8, but notes that, since then, the total fertility rate for the planetQs a#erage /oman has !roppe! by more than
half. 1his, he says, 7is a stunning change8 but not one /e often hear about because 7it !oesnQt fit the
!ooms!ay agen!a8. ,hat fascinates me about this a!mission is that sai! the same thing fifteen years ago /hen /rote )*plo!ing Population
Myths for publication by 1he 'ree Mar(et 'oun!ation. Pearce says that there is a lag in birth rates an! that 7the huge numbers
of young /omen born !uring the baby boom yearsV remain fertile.8 &ut as they age birth rates are going to
!rop at an e#en faster pace. Pearce is correct. n a!!ition he says, as argue! in 3<<>, much of the /orl!Qs population increase isnQt the
result of high birth rates but because there has been a huge !ecline in !eath rates. Bne en#ironmentalist of the !ay, in a scathing report on my boo(,
a!mitte! that !eath rates may /ell be !o/n, but con!emne! me because !i!nQt ha#e a solution to 7the problem8. a!mit !i!nQt, an! still !onQt.
ha#e trouble seeing lo/er !eath rates as a problem. Robert ,al(er, of the !ooms!ayJoriente! Population nstitute, has attac(e!
PearceQs essay by, among other things, suggesting that hunger is the result of too many babies being born. n a tele#ision !ebate, after the launch of
)*plo!ing Population Myths, sai! that many of the problems attribute! to population gro/th /ere cause! by
7bureaucrats not babies, by politicians not people.8 My term /as not meant to imply that politicians are not people, but that
political controls resulte! in the problems attribute! to population gro/th. -ince 3<<>, there ha#e been se#eral compelling cases to illustrate this
(V(NE
Alt Ca&se
Nitro&s o2i$e $epletes the o;one la!er
Science Dail! P O:4P, 7%itrous B*i!e %o/ 1op BAoneJDepleting )mission,8
http9::///.science!aily.com:releases:455<:5O:5<5O4P363K66.htm, AJ
%itrous o*i!e has no/ become the largest o;one?$epleting s&%stance emitte$ thro&gh h&man
acti+ities an$ is e2pecte$ to remain the largest thro&gho&t the =1st cent&r! , %BAA scientists say in
a ne/ stu!y. 'or the first time, this stu!y has e#aluate! nitrous o*i!e emissions from human acti#ities in terms of their potential impact on )arthHs oAone
layer. As chlorofluorocarbons (C'Cs?, /hich ha#e been phase! out by international agreement, ebb in the atmosphere,
nitrous o*i!e /ill remain a significant oAoneJ!estroyer, the stu!y foun!. 1o!ay, nitrous o*i!e emissions from human
acti#ities are more than twice as high as the ne2t lea$ing o;one?$epleting gas . %itrous o*i!e is emitte!
from natural sources an! as a bypro!uct of agricultural fertiliAation an! other in!ustrial processes. Calculating the
effect on the oAone layer no/ an! in the future, %BAA researchers foun! that emissions of nitrous o*i!e from human acti#ities
ero!e the oAone layer an! /ill continue to !o so for many !eca!es. 1he stu!y, authore! by A.R. Ra#ishan(ara, J.-. Daniel an!
Robert ,. Portmann of the %BAA )arth -ystem Research +aboratory ()-R+? chemical sciences !i#ision, appears online to!ay in the ;ournal -cience.
)-R+ trac(s the thic(ness of the oAone layer, as /ell as the bur!en of oAoneJ!epleting compoun!s in the
atmosphere. t maintains a large portion of the /orl! air sampling an! measurement net/or(. %BAA scientists
also con!uct fun!amental stu!ies of the atmosphere an! atmospheric processes to impro#e un!erstan!ing of
oAone !epletion an! of the potential for reco#ery the oAone layer. M1he !ramatic re!uction in C'Cs o#er the last
45 years is an en#ironmental success story. &ut manma!e nitrous o*i!e is no/ the elephant in the room among
oAoneJ!epleting substances,M sai! Ra#ishan(ara, lea! author of the stu!y an! !irector of the )-R+ Chemical -ciences Di#ision in &oul!er,
Colo. 1he oAone layer ser#es to shiel! plants, animals an! people from e*cessi#e ultra#iolet light from the sun. 1hinning of the oAone layer allo/s more
ultra#iolet light to reach the )arthHs surface /here it can !amage crops an! a@uatic life an! harm human health. 1hough the role of nitrous
o*i!e in oAone !epletion has been (no/n for se#eral !eca!es, the ne/ stu!y is the first to e*plicitly calculate
that role using the same measures that ha#e been applie! to C'Cs, halons an! other chlorineJ an! bromineJ
containing oAoneJ!epleting substances. ,ith C'Cs an! certain other oAoneJ!epleting gases coming in chec( as a result of the 3<OP
Montreal Protocol, the international treaty that phase! out oAoneJ!estroying compoun!s, manma!e nitrous o*i!e is becoming an increasingly larger
fraction of the emissions of oAoneJ!epleting substances. %itrous o*i!e is not reg&late$ %! the Montreal Protocol .
%itrous o*i!e is also a greenhouse gas, so re!ucing its emission from manma!e sources /oul! be goo! for both
the oAone layer an! climate, the scientists sai!. n a!!ition to soil fertiliAation, nitrous o*i!e is emitte! from li#estoc(
manure, se/age treatment, combustion an! certain other in!ustrial processes. Dentists use it as a se!ati#e (soJcalle!
Mlaughing gasM?. n nature, bacteria in soil an! the oceans brea( !o/n nitrogenJcontaining compoun!s, releasing
nitrous o*i!e. About oneJthir! of global nitrous o*i!e emissions are from human acti#ities. %itrous o*i!e, li(e
C'Cs, is stable /hen emitte! at groun! le#el, but brea(s !o/n /hen it reaches the stratosphere to form other
gases, calle! nitrogen o*i!es, that trigger o;one?$estro!ing reactions .
'eco+ering Now
(;one reco+ering now
4oollacott 15 <:45, $)mma ,oollacott is a /riter at 1G Daily9 1echnology, -cience, )ntertainment, an! &usiness %e/s, 7BAone layer is
reco#ering, says "%,8 http9::///.tg!aily.com:sustainabilityJfeatures:>3=3<JoAoneJlayerJisJreco#eringJsaysJun, AJ
1he o;one la!er is regenerating an$ co&l$ %e %ac# &p to strength %! the mi$$le of the cent&r! ,
accor!ing to a "% report. t conclu!es that international efforts s&ch as the Montreal Protocol are
s&ccessf&ll! protecting the o;one la!er , /hich protects life on )arth from harmful le#els of ultra#iolet
rays. 1he report, title! -cientific Assessment of BAone Depletion 4535, /as /ritten an! re+iewe$ %! aro&n$ 955
scientists an! is the first comprehensi#e up!ate in four years. 1he Montreal Protocol, it says, is /or(ing. Mt
has protecte! the stratospheric oAone layer from much higher le#els of !epletion by phasing out pro!uction
an! consumption of oAone !epleting substances,M says the report. Almost 355 substances once use! in refrigerators,
aerosols an! other pro!ucts ha#e been phase! out. M,ithout the Montreal Protocol an! its associate! Cienna
Con#ention atmospheric le#els of oAoneJ!epleting substances coul! ha#e increase! tenfol! by 45>5,M sai! Achim
-teiner, "% un!erJsecretary general an! "%)P e*ecuti#e !irector. M1his in turn coul! ha#e le! to up to 45 million more cases of s(in cancer an! 3K5
million more cases of eye cataracts, not to spea( of !amage to human immune systems, /il!life an! agriculture.M Gi#en that many substances
that !eplete the oAone layer are also potent greenhouse gases, the report says that the Montreal Protocol has
Mpro#i!e! substantial coJbenefits by re$&cing climate change .M n 4535, the Protocol le! to a re!uction of
oAoneJ!epleting substances that /as fi#e times larger than the 455OJ4534 re!uction resulting from the 2yoto
Protocol, the greenhouse emissions re!uction treaty. 1he report says that an important challenge /hich still remains is to e*amine
the comple* lin(ages bet/een oAone an! climate change. Changes in climate are e*pecte! to ha#e an increasing influence on
stratospheric oAone in the coming !eca!es, it says. 1he changes !eri#e mainly from the emissions of longJli#e!
greenhouse gases, mainly carbon !io*i!e, associate! /ith human acti#ities.
More e+i$ence
Crow 11 >:3=, $James Mitchell Cro/ is a science /riter for %ature %e/s an! PhD in Chemistry from 1he Australian %ational "ni#ersity, 7'irst signs
of oAoneJhole reco#ery spotte!,8 http9::///.nature.com:ne/s:4533:335>3=:full:ne/s.4533.4<K.html, AJ
1he hole in the oAone layer o#er Antarctica is starting to heal , say researchers in Australia. 1he team is the first to
!etect a reco#ery in baseline a#erage springtime oAone le#els in the region, 44 years after the Montreal Protocol
to ban chlorofluorocarbons (C'Cs? an! relate! oAoneJ!estroying chemicals came into force. )ach spring, those
chlorineJ an! bromineJreleasing chemicals eat a hole in the oAone layer abo#e the Antarctic. 1han(s to the
Montreal agreement, le+els of anthropogenic o;one $epleters $etecte$ in the region7s stratosphere
ha+e %een falling since aro&n$ the t&rn of the millenni&m. Ho/e#er, !etecting any correspon!ing oAone
reco#ery has been !ifficult. 1hat !ifficulty is !o/n to significant natural #ariations in a#erage Antarctic
stratospheric springtime oAone le#els from year to year, /hich mean that the hole can be small one year an!
large the ne*t. -cientists !i! not e*pect to be able to !etect the gra!ual reco#ery of oAone for !eca!es, mas(e! as it
is by these !ramatic s/ings. 1he teamHs brea(through /as in sho/ing that annual s/ings in a#erage springtime oAone
le#els are lin(e! to changes in a particular pattern of stratospheric /eather (no/n as !ynamical forcing. n years
in /hich this phenomenon is strong !uring the /inter, more col! air is trappe! abo#e the pole. As a result, there are more ice crystals in the atmosphere.
1hese crystals form the surface on /hich chlorine !estroys oAone, catalyse! by sunlight returning to the Antarctic !uring the spring. M thin( this is
the first con#incing obser#ationallyJ!eri#e! e#i!ence of the oAone reboun!,M says A!rian McDonal!, an
atmospheric scientist at the "ni#ersity of Canterbury in Christchurch, %e/ _ealan!. MtHs the first /here the statistical
significance is high enough, an! you can see the pattern /ell enough, that you feel comfortable in belie#ing it.M
-albyHs results re#eal a fast !ecline in oAone le#els until the late 3<<5s, then a slo/ reboun! that closely
matches /hat theoretical calculations ha! pre!icte!, says Da#i! 2aroly, a climate scientist at the "ni#ersity of Melbourne, Australia.
Mt is the sort of result that /as e*pecte!, but is the first to pro#i!e !etection of an increase in Antarctic oAone
le#els,M he says. A!!ing /eight to -albyHs argument, the increase in oAone le#els re#eale! by the calculations closely mirror
the !ecrease in the le#els of anthropogenic chlorine in the region. M'or no/, they agree pretty /ell,M says -alby. MMy
feeling is that as time goes on /e /ill start to see other influences on the systematic e#olution of oAone le#el besi!e chlorine.M Bne such influence is li(ely
to be the increasing concentration of carbon !io*i!e in the atmosphere. -albyHs !ata re#eal that a#erage springtime Antarctic oAone le#els ha#e
alrea!y reco#ere! by 3>L since the late 3<<5s. Ho/e#er, pro;ecting for/ar!, natural /eatherJrelate! fluctuations mean that e#en as late
as 45O>, oAone /ill still !rop belo/ 3<O5 le#els for at least one year in e#ery ten. A complicating factor in that pre!iction is the influence of climate
change, says 2aroly. M)#en /hen C'Cs are remo#e!, oAone le#els /ill be !ifferent in the future than they /ere in the 3<=5s, because of changes in
temperature in the stratosphere.M tHs a relationship that goes both /ays, ho/e#er. Mn the past four or fi#e years it has become #ery
clear that the o;one hole seems to ha+e hel$ %ac# climate change o#er Antarctica ,M says McDonal!. BAone
absorbs sunlight, so less oAone means the stratosphere heats up less. 1his has cause! a change in circulation
patterns aroun! the Antarctic, /hich has trappe! more col! air o#er the pole. As the oAone hole reco#ers, its future impact
on Antarctic climate, an! so on melting ice caps an! global seaJle#el rise, is un!er !ebate. M-ome people are saying that, once the oAone hole totally
reco#ers, because it has so far ha! a bra(ing effect, maybe /hen that bra(e gets ta(en off then /eHll ha#e rapi! change o#er the Antarctic. &ut there are
many comple*ities in the system, an! so other people are saying that it might not ha#e #ery much effect. 1hat is !efinitely /or( to be !one by the
climateJscience community.M n the more imme!iate term, the strong correlation bet/een /inter /eather patterns an!
springtime oAone le#els means that the intensity of the oAone hole can no/ be forecast, says -alby. 1hat is important
because, at the en! of each spring, the oAoneJ!eplete! air is release! across the mi!Jlatitu!es of the southern hemisphere, affecting ma;or population
centres !uring the summer months by allo/ing increase! le#els of ultra#iolet light to reach )arthHs surface. Mf you (no/ /hat the stratospheric forcing
is !uring the /inter, you can pre!ict rather accurately the oAone le#el for the follo/ing spring,M says -alby.
PEAQ (I)


A&thor In$ict
Io&r a&thors are terri%le , no pea# oil
4illiams 59 (&ob, former )*ecuti#e )!itor of $il % &as 'o(rnal, citing 1homas Ahlbran!t, /orl! energy
pro;ect chief, "- Geological -ur#ey, citing -arah )merson, Managing Director of )nergy -ecurity Analysis, nc.,
July 36, 455K, 7Debate o#er pea(Joil issue boiling o#er, /ith ma;or implications for in!ustry, society,8 $il %
&as 'o(rnal) ProSuest, Hensel?
A number of prominent energy consultants, economists, an! petroleum scientist ha#e ta(en issue /ith the notion
that the /orl! a/aits an imminent pea( in oil pro!uction. 1homas Ahlbran!t, /orl! energy pro;ect chief /ith the "- Geological
-ur#ey in Den#er, ob;ects to the concept un!erlying the Hubbert cur#e. Ms there an imminent oil pea(U The short answer is
no ,M he sai!. M belie#e in the plateau concept, /hich reconciles the nee! for a!!itional resources /ithin the constraints of infrastructure an! capital
in#estment. 71he symmetric rise an! fall of oil pro!uction is not technically supportable, as Hubber, +aherrere, an! others
ha#e publishe!, although generally not recogniAe! by (Colin? Campbell, (2enneth? Deffeyes, an! others /ho ha#e been ma(ing !raconian
en!JofJci#iliAation claims since 3<O< an! e#ery year since. ,hy is there no accountability for these faile! forecasts either by
Hubbert or !isciples such as Campbell, +aherrere, etc.UM nstea!, Ahlbran!t an! others point to e#en mature areas such as the "2 %orth -ea,
/hich in the past =5 !ears has repeate$l! $efie$ forecasts of a %ell?c&r+e?st!le $ecline ('igs. =JP?. An!
pea(Joil critics also note! the surge in !isco#eries in areas !eeme! critical for future supply, such as the !eep/ater
Gulf of Me*ico ('ig. O?. -arah )merson, managing !irector, )nergy -ecurity Analysis nc., ,a(efiel!, Mass., is one of many energy economists /ho
conten! that the Hubbert mo!elers !isregar! the roles of oil supply, !eman!, an! prices as /ell political an!
regulatory impacts. M !o not belie#e the pea( in global oil pro!uction is imminent,M she tol! BGJ.8 1he geologists
/ho present the resource scarcity argument ten! to ignore changes in the economic conte*t. 'or e*ample, foreign
in#estment la/s can change in countries /ith large reser#es an! limite! access to capital or technology. 1his
means places /here /e ne#er e*pecte! !e#elopment (or e*pecte! slo/ !e#elopment? su!!enly open up. A list
of the countries /ho ha#e opene! up to foreign in#estment is an impressi#e /hoHs /ho of pro!ucers9 Russia,
AAerbai;an, 2aAa(hstan, CeneAuela, no/ ra@, an! maybe e#en some!ay 2u/ait an! -au!i Arabia. %e/Jfoun! access to capital an! technology re@uires a
total reappraisal of resource !e#elopment.M -he conten!s that the global oil in!ustry an! mar(et is Mincre!ibly !ynamic,
constantly changing as it respon!s to regulation an! inno#ation. MThe >&%%ert c&r+e anal!sis is far too
static to stan! as a gui!ing assessment of the future of global oil supply . As /ith any Hmo!elH results, it shoul! be one input
into a broa!er, more comprehensi#e mar(et analysis.M
)ong Time Frame
Pea# oil-s not happening an! time soon
3oice of America 5P (citing Michael )conomi!es, professor at the Cullen College of )ngineering, "ni#ersity
of Houston, Bctober 4P, 455<, 7s the ,orl! Running But of BilU,8 http9::///.#oane/s.com:content:aJ3KJ
455OJ5KJ5>J#oaPJ==O3543P:KP63<=.html, Hensel?
-ome analysts maintain that after large oil fiel!s are e*plore!, it becomes har!er an! more e*pensi#e to !rill !eeper for increasingly smaller amounts of
oil. &ut chemical an! bioJmolecular engineer Michael )conomi!es of the "ni#ersity of Houston says oil /ill not run out anytime soon.
M1he first time that people sai! /e /ere running out of oil /as in 3O==, four years after the first purposeful /ell /as !rille! in
Pennsyl#ania. 1he /hole concept that /e are running out of oil has been repeate! on at least si* ma;or occasions in
the last 3>5Jsome years. Pea( /ill happen,M says )conomi!es. M&ut my calculations suggest that pea( oil may happen
aroun! 4565, perhaps 45>5. An! then after that, it /ill linger on for !eca!es JJ perhaps t/o, three centuries. ,e are still
going to be pro!ucing commercial @uantities of oil.M 1echnology to the RescueU )conomi!es says technology an! ne/
!rilling techni@ues ha#e e*ten!e! the /orl!Hs (no/n oil reser#es. As a result, many e*perts say estimates for oil
reser#es ha#e been rising, /ith this yearHs global reser#es estimate! at oneJan!JaJthir! trillion barrels. M1he
intro!uction of mo!ern geoJsciences has probably a!!e! 45 percent Dmore oilE to the "nite! -tatesH reser#es. 'ifteen years
ago, it /as a goo! stri(e if /e !rille! ten /ells an! one /ell /as goo!. 1o!ay, se#en out of ten !rille! /ells are commercial successes. All of that is
because of technology,M says )conomi!es. M,e ha#e gone belo/ 35Jthousan! feet of /ater, /hich /oul! ha#e been unthin(able 3> years ago. -o all of
these things e*ten! reser#es an! /orl! pro!uction capacity.M
No Pea# (il
Technolog! an$ h&man ingen&it! sol+e
The Telegraph 1= (Garry ,hite 0 staff /riter, April 3, 4534, 7Pea( oil !oomsayers ignore human ingenuity,8
1he 1elegraph, http9::///.telegraph.co.u(:finance:commo!ities:<3P<454:Pea(JoilJ!oomsayersJignoreJ
humanJingenuity.html, Hensel?
Many pea( oil !isciples use the theory to paint pictures of !ooms!ay scenarios. As oil pro!uction falls an! it gets scarcer the
cost /ill rise an! rise /ith !isastrous conse@uences for the global economy an! e#eryoneQs /ealth. 1here /ill be a time /here energy /ill get so e*pensi#e
that all but the #ery richest /ill not be able to tra#el as the cost becomes prohibiti#e. ,e /ill be less mobile an! localise! /ith foo! sourcing an!
manufacturing. A globalise! /orl! /ill en!, a!#ocates argue. Ho/e#er, theories of a looming resource crunch ha#e stal(e! popular
imaginations for centuries J an! technology has al/ays rolle! bac( any looming apocalypse. n the seminal 3P<O
pamphlet entitle! An )ssay on the Principle of Population, Re#eren! 1homas Malthus argue! that population gro/th /oul! ha#e to stop as the /orl!
/oul! no longer fee! its fastJgro/ing population. Ho/e#er, this Malthusian catastrophe has not happene! because of the
technology !e#elope! an! applie! in the 7green re#olution8. 1he 45th Century green re#olution sa/ a series of
!e#elopments that booste! intensi#e farming techni@ues, irrigation an! the use of highJyiel!ing crops. -o, it /as
a technologyJle! process the stoppe! Malthusians in their trac(s 0 or (ic(e! the can further into the future. &ut technology
an! human ingenuity ha#e al/ays been one step ahea!. A similar process is happening in energy. 1here has
been a re#olution in po/er pro!uction o#er the last !eca!e, one that has been !ri#en by engineering an!
science. 1he proliferation of hy!raulic fracturing, or frac(ing, means that the "- /ill be the /orl!Qs secon! largest gas
pro!ucer by 45K>, /ith its output !/arfe! only by Russia, accor!ing to the nternational )nergy Agency. 1he "- currently has recor!
lo/ gas prices because the ne/ technology has create! a glut of natural gas. tQs not ;ust ne/ technologies in gas pro!uction
that are ta(ing up the slac( from oil, but ne/ !e#elopments in /in!, solar an! ti!al generation are also pro#i!ing
alternati#es. Bnce again, ne/ technology is pro#i!ing the solution /e nee!, albeit at a slo/ pace. Ho/e#er, oil prices ha#e
continue! to rise an!, /ith &rent cru!e prices staying abo#e T355 a barrel since January 4533 (bar a fe/ !ays aroun! Bctober /hen it !ippe! to T<>?.
&ut this is more to !o /ith supply issues from the Mi!!le )ast an! /orries about a conflict /ith ran. 1he price is also supporte! by the moneyJprinting
acti#ities of central ban(s as they increase li@ui!ity in the system. &ecause oil is a finite resource, pea( oil theory has to be true. %e/ oil is !ifficult to fin!,
being locate! in the froAen arctic regions or !eep un!er the oceans, /hich guarantees the price /ill remain ele#ate!. Ho/e#er, as /ith the green
re#olution an! agriculture, so an energy re#olution is alrea!y un!er/ay /ith shale gas J a technology that /as
#irtually unhear! of a !eca!e ago in the #anguar!. Cast amounts of money are being spent on !e#eloping ne*tJ
generation biofuels, hy!rogen cells an! e#en thorium molten salt reactors, /hich are nuclear reactors that
pro!uce less ra!ioacti#e material than those that use uranium as a fuel. -o, in the en!, it is li#el! that h&man
ingen&it! will pre+ail.
Pea# (il theor! is 8&st wrong , 6 warrants an$ in$icts !o&r a&thors
Asia Times 5@ (smael HosseinJ_a!eh, June 4>, 455O, 7Are they really oil /arsU,8
http9::///.atimes.com:atimes:GlobalF)conomy:J'4>D;5>.html, Hensel?
Pea( Bil theory is base! on a number of assumptions an! omissions that ma(e it less than reliable. 1o begin /ith, it
!iscounts or !isregar!s the fact that energyJsa#ing technologies ha#e !rastically impro#e! (an! /ill continue to further
impro#e? the efficiency of oil consumption. )#i!ence sho/s that, for e*ample, Mo#er a perio! of fi#e years (3<<6J<<?, "- GDP e*pan!e! o#er
45L /hile oil usage rose by only <L. &efore the 3<PK oil shoc(, the ratio /as about one to one.M D6E -econ!, Pea( Bil theory pays scant
attention to the !rastically enabling ne/ technologies that ha#e ma!e (an! /ill continue to ma(e? possible !isco#ery
an! e*traction of oil reser#es that /ere inaccessible only a short time ago. Bne of the results of the more efficient means of
research an! !e#elopment has been a far higher success rate in fin!ing ne/ oil fiel!s. 1he success rate has risen in 45 years from
less than P5L to o#er O5L. Computers ha#e helpe! to re!uce the number of !ry holes. HoriAontal !rilling has booste!
e*traction. Another important !e#elopment has been !eepJ/ater offshore !rilling, /hich the ne/ technologies no/
permit. Goo! e*amples are the %orth -ea, the Gulf of Me*ico, an! more recently, the promising offshore oil fiel!s of ,est Africa. D>E 1hir!, Pea( Bil
theory also pays short shrift to /hat is sometimes calle! nonJcon#entional oil. 1hese inclu!e Cana!aHs giant reser#es
of e*traJhea#y bitumen that can be processe! to pro!uce con#entional oil. Although this /as originally consi!ere! cost
inefficient, e*perts /or(ing in this area no/ claim that they ha#e brought !o/n the cost from o#er "-T45 a barrel
to TO per barrel. -imilar !e#elopments are ta(ing place in CeneAuela. t is than(s to !e#elopments li(e these that since 3<P5, /orl! oil reser#es
ha#e more than !ouble!, !espite the e*traction of hun!re!s of millions of barrels. D=E 'ourth, Pea( Bil thesis pays insufficient attention
to energy sources other than oil. 1hese inclu!e solar, /in!, nonJfoo! bioJfuel, an! nuclear energies. 1hey also inclu!e
natural gas. Gas is no/ about 4>L of energy !eman! /orl!/i!e. t is estimate! that by 45>5 it /ill be the main source of energy in
the /orl!. A number of American, )uropean, an! Japanese firms are in#esting hea#ily in !e#eloping fuel cells for cars an!
other #ehicles that /oul! significantly re!uce gasoline consumption. DPE 'ifth, proponents of Pea( Bil ten! to
e*aggerate the impact of the increase! oil !eman! coming from China an! n!ia on both the amount an! the
price of oil in global mar(ets. 1he allege! !isparity bet/een supply an! !eman! is sai! to be !ue to the rapi!ly
gro/ing !eman! coming from China an! n!ia. &ut that rapi! gro/th in !eman! is largely offset by a number of
counterbalancing factors. 1hese inclu!e slo/er gro/th in "- !eman! !ue to its slo/er economic gro/th, efficient
energy utiliAation in in!ustrially a!#ance! countries, an! increases in oil pro!uction by members of the
BrganiAation of Petroleum )*porting Countries, Russia, an! others. 'inally, an! perhaps more importantly, claims of Mpea(e! an!
!/in!lingM oil are refute! by the a#ailable facts an! figures on global oil supply. -tatistical e#i!ence sho/s that
there is absolutely no supplyJ!eman! imbalance in global oil mar(ets. Contrary to the claims of the proponents of Pea( Bil an!
champions of /ar an! militarism, the current oil price shoc(s are a !irect conse@uence of the !estabiliAing /ars an!
geopolitical insecurity in the Mi!!le )ast, not oil shortages. 1hese inclu!e not only the /ars in ra@ an! Afghanistan, but also the
threat of a looming /ar against ran. 1he recor! of soaring oil prices sho/s that anytime there is a rene/e! "- military threat against ran, fuel prices
mo#e up se#eral notches.

'ES(*'CE 4A'S
Alt Ca&se , Mo+ernance
Mo+ernance is the root ca&se of reso&rce conflicts
3ictor 5L (Da#i! G., Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts nstitute of 1echnology, professor at
the Gra!uate -chool of nternational Relations an! Pacific -tu!ies at the "ni#ersity of California, -an Diego,
%o#ember:December 455P, 7,hat Resource ,arsU,8 1he %ational nterest, ssue <4R pg. 6O, Hensel?
Rising energy prices an! mounting concerns about en#ironmental !epletion ha#e animate! fears that the /orl! may be hea!e! for a spate of
Mresource /arsMJ hot conflicts triggere! by a struggle to grab #aluable resources. -uch fears come in many stripes, but the threat in!ustry has
soun!e! the alarm bells especially lou!ly in three areas. 'irst is the rise of China, /hich is poorly en!o/e! /ith many of the resources it nee!sJsuch as
oil, gas, timber an! most mineralsJan! has alrea!y Mgone outM to the /orl! /ith the goal of securing /hat it /ants. Ciolent conflicts may follo/ as the
country shunts others asi!e. A secon! potential path !o/n the roa! to resource /ars starts /ith all the money no/ flo/ing into poorly go#erne! but
resourceJrich countries. Money can fun! ci#il /ars an! other hostilities, e#en lea(ing into the han!s of terrorists. An! thir! is global climate change,
/hich coul! multiply stresses on natural resources an! trigger /ater /ars, catalyAe the sprea! of !isease or bring about mass migrations. Most of this
is bun(, an! nearly all of it has focuse! on the wrong lessons for polic! . Classic resource /ars are goo! material
for Holly/oo! screen/riters. The! rarel! occ&r in the real worl$. 1o be sure, resource money can magnify an! prolong
some conflicts, but the root causes of those hostilities &s&all! lie elsewhere . 'i*ing them re@uires focusing on the
&n$erl!ing instit&tions that go+ern how reso&rces are &se$ an! largely !etermine /hether stress
e*plo!es into #iolence. ,hen conflicts !o arise, the /ea( lin( isnHt a !earth in resources but a $earth in go+ernance .
The ca&se for conflicts o+er reso&rces lies elsewhere
3ictor 5L (Da#i! G., Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts nstitute of 1echnology, professor at
the Gra!uate -chool of nternational Relations an! Pacific -tu!ies at the "ni#ersity of California, -an Diego,
%o#ember:December 455P, 7,hat Resource ,arsU,8 1he %ational nterest, ssue <4R pg. 6O, Hensel?
,hile there are many reasons to fear global /arming, the ris( that such !angers coul! cause #iolent conflict ran(s e*tremely lo/ on the list because it is
highly unli(ely to materialiAe. Despite !eca!es of /arnings about /ater /ars, /hat is stri(ing is that water wars $on7t happenJusually
because countries that share /ater resources ha#e a lot more at sta(e an! arme! conflict rarely fi*es the
problem. -ome analysts ha#e pointe! to conflicts o#er resources, inclu!ing /ater an! #aluable lan!, as a cause in the R/an!an genoci!e, for e*ample.
Recently, the "% secretaryJgeneral suggeste! that climate change /as alrea!y e*acerbating the conflicts in -u!an. &ut none of these suppose!
causal chains stay lin(e! un!er close scrutinyJthe conflicts o#er resources are usually symptomatic of !eeper
failures in go#ernance an! other primal forces for conflicts, such as ethnic tensions, income ine@ualities an!
other unsettle! grie#ances. Climate is ;ust one of many factors that contribute to tension. 1he same is true for scenarios of climate refugees,
/here the moni(er MclimateM con#eniently obscures the !eeper causal forces.
Comple2 factors ma#e sol+ing reso&rce wars impossi%le , the! empiricall! $on-t happen
an!wa!
3ictor 5L (Da#i! G., Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts nstitute of 1echnology, professor at
the Gra!uate -chool of nternational Relations an! Pacific -tu!ies at the "ni#ersity of California, -an Diego,
%o#ember:December 455P, 7,hat Resource ,arsU,8 1he %ational nterest, ssue <4R pg. 6O, Hensel?
f reso&rce wars are actually rareJan! /hen they !o e*ist, they are part of a comple2 of ca&sal factors Jthen
much of the con#entional /is!om about resource policies nee!s fresh scrutiny. A fullJblo/n ne/ strategy is beyon! this
mo!est essay, but here in the "nite! -tates, at least three lines of ne/ thin(ing are nee!e!. 'irst, the "nite! -tates nee!s to thin( !ifferently about the
!eman!s that countries /ith e*plo!ing gro/th are ma(ing on the /orl!Hs resources. t must (eep their rise in perspecti#e, as their nee! for resources is
still, on a per capita basis, much smaller than typical ,estern appetites. An! /hat matters most is that the "nite! -tates must focus on ho/ to
accommo!ate these countriesH peaceful rise an! their ine#itable nee! for resources. Applie! to China, this means getting the Chinese go#ernment to #ie/
efficient mar(ets as the best /ay to obtain resourcesJnot only because such an approach lea!s to correct pricing (/hich encourages energy efficiency as
resources become more !ear?, but also because it transforms all essential resources into commo!ities, /hich ma(es their particular physical location less
important than the o#erall functioning of the commo!ity mar(et. All that /ill, in turn, ma(e resource /ars e#en less li(ely because it /ill create common
interests among all the countries /ith the greatest !eman! for resources. t /ill transform the resource problem from a AeroJsum struggle to the common
tas( of managing mar(ets. Most policyma(ers agree /ith such general statements, but the actual practice of ".-. policy has largely un!ercut this goal.
-aberJrattling about C%BBCH- attempt to buy "nocalJalong /ith similar fearJmongering aroun! foreign control of ports an! ne/ rules that seem
!esigne! to trigger re#ie/s by the Committee on 'oreign n#estment in the "nite! -tates /hen foreigners try to buy AmericanJo/ne! assetsJsen!s the
signal that going out /ill also be the American approach, rather than letting mar(ets function freely. +i(e/ise, one of the most important actions in the
oil mar(et is to engage China an! other emerging countries fully in the nternational )nergy AgencyJ/hich is the /orl!Hs only institution for managing
the oil commo!ity mar(ets in times of crisisJyet !espite /i!e bipartisan consensus on that goal, nearly nothing is e#er !one to e*ecute such a policy.
Getting China to source commo!ities through mar(ets rather than mercantilism /ill be relati#ely easy because Chinese policyma(ers, as /ell as the
lea!ership of state enterprises that in#est in natural resource pro;ects, alrea!y increasingly thin( that /ay. The sweep of histor! points
against classic resource /ars. ,hereas colonialism create! long, oppressi#e an! often /arJprone supply chains for resources such as oil an!
rubber, most resources to!ay are f&ngi%le commo$ities . 1hat means it is almost al/ays cheaper an! more reliable
to buy them in mar(ets.
A&thor In$ict
Io&r lit %ase is rigge$ to come to the concl&sion that scarcit! lea$s to conflict , prefer o&r
e+i$ence
3ictor 5@ (Da#i! G. Cictor, A!;unct -enior 'ello/ for -cience an! 1echnology professor of la/ at -tanfor! +a/ -chool an! the !irector of the
Program on )nergy an! -ustainable De#elopment. He is also a senior fello/ at the Council on 'oreign Relations 3J4J5O -mo(e an! Mirrors 1he %ational
nterest?
%early all of the #ast literature that HomerJDi*on applau!s suffers from the affliction of se#ere selection bias an! failure to assign proper /eights to
causal factors. <ut a microscope on any -ig conflict loo,ing for resources, and you0re sure to find e$actly what you0re
loo,ing for . %obo!y !oubts that causation is comple$R the !ispute is on the central forces. An! to 2lareQs point about metho!ology, my article
focuses narro/ly on hot conflictIthat is, 7/ar8Ibecause the best /ay to get causation right usually re@uires starting narro/ly. >owe+er
technological change an$ economic shifts awa! from reso&rce?intensi+e in$&stries an$ the
glo%ali;ation of most reso&rces into commo$ities implies that a %roa$er +ersion of m!
h!pothesis pro%a%l! also hol$sG natural resources matter less and thus are less important for conflict e2cept
where loota%le reso&rces coinci$e with e2ceptionall! poor go+ernance.
Ca&ses Cooperation
Co&ntries will negotiate o+er reso&rces not fight
Mol$stone 5= (Jac( A., Cirginia ). an! John 1. HaAel Jr. Professor at the George Mason -chool of Public
Policy, 'all 4554, 7Population an! -ecurity9 Ho/ Demographic Change Can +ea! to Ciolent Conflict,8 'o(rnal
of International Affairs, 'all 4554, #ol. >=, no. 3, http9::///.efi(o.org:material:PopulationL45an!
L45-ecurityJL45Ho/L45!emographicL45ChangeL45canL45+ea!L45toL45CiolentL45ConflictL45Jac(
L45A.L45Gol!stone.p!f, Hensel?
-houl! /e therefore !ismiss the en#ironment as a cause of conflictU %o, although belie#e we can %e free of the fear that
en+ironmental $eca! will &nleash wars an$ re+ol&tions across the glo%e. Rather, /hat research has
sho/n is that although en#ironmental issues !o cause international an! !omestic conflicts, they are of the (in!
that are generally settle! by negotiation an! compromise an! !o not lea! to ta(ing up arms. 1he reason for that is
straightfor/ar!. ,here the problem face! by t/o groups, or t/o nations, is o#er the !egra!ation or !epletion of an
en#ironmental resource, /ar neither sol#es the problem (it cannot ma(e more of the resource? nor is it an economically
efficient /ay to re!istribute the resource (the costs of /ar almost in#ariably far out/eigh the cost of gaining alternati#e resources or
paying more for a share of the resource?. 'or e*ample, if t/o nations ha#e a conflict o#er sharing ri#er /aterIsuch as n!ia an! &angla!esh o#er the
Ganges, *i srael an! Jor!an o#er the ri#er Jor!an *ii or Hungary an! -lo#a(ia o#er the Danube *iiiIthey may threaten #iolence but in fact are most
li(ely to pro!uce nonJ#iolent resolution through negotiation or arbitration rather than /ar (an! in!ee! all of these conflicts le! to treaties or
international arbitration *i#?.
Empirics
Empirics pro+e , no reso&rce wars
Saleh!an 5L (!ean, Associate Professor of Political -cience at the "ni#ersity of %orth 1e*as, August 36,
455P, 71he %e/ Myth About Climate Change,8 'oreign Policy,
http9::///.foreignpolicy.com:articles:455P:5O:3K:theFne/FmythFaboutFclimateFchange, Hensel?
1hese claims generally boil !o/n to an argument about resource scarcity. Desertification, seaJle#el rise, moreJfre@uent se#ere /eather e#ents, an
increase! geographical range of tropical !isease, an! shortages of fresh/ater /ill lea! to #iolence o#er scarce necessities. 'riction bet/een ha#es an!
ha#eJnots /ill increase, an! go#ernments /ill be har!Jpresse! to pro#i!e e#en the most basic ser#ices. n some scenarios, mass migration /ill ensue,
/hether !ue to !esertification, natural !isasters, an! rising sea le#els, or as a conse@uence of resource /ars. )n#ironmental refugees /ill in turn spar(
political #iolence in recei#ing areas, an! countries in the global %orth /ill erect e#er higher barriers to (eep culturally un/elcome an! hungry foreigners
out. 1he number of faile! states, mean/hile, /ill increase as go#ernments collapse in the face of resource /ars an! /ea(ene! state capabilities, an!
transnational terrorists an! criminal net/or(s /ill mo#e in. nternational /ars o#er !eplete! /ater an! energy supplies /ill also intensify. 1he basic
nee! for sur#i#al /ill supplant nationalism, religion, or i!eology as the fun!amental root of conflict. Dire scenarios li(e these may soun! con#incing, but
they are mislea!ing. )#en /orse, they are irresponsible, for they shift liability for /ars an! human rights abuses a/ay from oppressi#e, corrupt
go#ernments. A!!itionally, focusing on climate change as a security threat that re@uires a military response !i#erts attention a/ay from pru!ent
a!aptation mechanisms an! ne/ technologies that can pre#ent the /orst catastrophes. 'irst, asi!e from a fe/ anec!otes, there is little
s!stematic empirical e+i$ence that resource scarcity an! changing en#ironmental con!itions lea! to conflict. n fact,
se#eral stu!ies ha#e sho/n that an abun!ance of natural resources is more li(ely to contribute to conflict.
Moreo#er, e#en as the planet has /arme!, the number of ci#il /ars an! insurgencies has !ecrease! !ramatically.
Data collecte! by researchers at "ppsala "ni#ersity an! the nternational Peace Research nstitute, Bslo sho/s a steep !ecline in the
number of arme! conflicts aroun! the /orl!. &et/een 3<O< an! 4554, some 355 arme! conflicts came to an en!, inclu!ing the /ars in
MoAambi@ue, %icaragua, an! Cambo!ia. f global /arming causes conflict, /e shoul! not be /itnessing this !o/n/ar!
tren!. 'urthermore, if famine an! !rought le! to the crisis in Darfur, /hy ha#e scores of en#ironmental
catastrophes faile! to set off arme! conflict else/hereU 'or instance, the ".%. ,orl! 'oo! Programme /arns that > million people in
Mala/i ha#e been e*periencing chronic foo! shortages for se#eral years. &ut famineJ/rac(e! Mala/i has yet to e*perience a ma;or
ci#il /ar. -imilarly, the Asian tsunami in 4556 (ille! hun!re!s of thousan!s of people, generate! millions of en#ironmental refugees, an!
le! to se#ere shortages of shelter, foo!, clean /ater, an! electricity. .et the tsunami, one of the most e*treme catastrophes in
recent history, !i! not lea! to an outbrea( of resource /ars. Clearly then, there is m&ch more to arme$ conflict
than reso&rce scarcit! an! natural !isasters.
No conflict o+er reso&rces , for e+er! e2ample to pro+e reso&rce wars e2ist there are se+eral
e2amples that $ispro+e it.
Dal%! 5D (-imon, Dept. Bf Geography, Carleton "ni#ersity, 455= M-ecurity an! en#ironment lin(ages re#isite!M in Globalisation an!
)n#ironmental Challenges9 Reconceptualising -ecurity in the 43st Century, ///.ntu.e!u.sg:i!ss:publications:---:---553.p!f?
n parallel /ith the focus on human security as a necessity in the face of both natural an! artificial forms of #ulnerability, recent literature has
emphasise! the opportunities that en+ironmental management presents for political cooperation
bet/een states an! other political actors, on both largescale infrastructure pro;ects as /ell as more tra!itional matters of /il!life an! ne/ concerns /ith
bio!i#ersity preser#ation (Matthe/:Halle:-/itAer 4554?. -imultaneously, the !iscussion on /ater /ars, an! in particular the (ey fin!ing the
share! resources fre.&entl! stimulate cooperation rather than conflict, shifte$ foc&s from conflict to the
possi%ilities of en+ironmental action as a mo$e of peacema#ing. &oth at the international le+el in
terms of en+ironmental $iplomac! an! institution buil!ing, there is consi!erable e#i!ence of cooperati#e action
on the part of many states (Conca:Dabel(o 4554?. Case stu!ies from man! parts of the worl$ s&ggest that
cooperation an! !iplomatic arrangements can facilitate peaceful responses to the en#ironmental !ifficulties in
contrast to the pessimism of the 3<<5Qs /here the focus /as on the potential for conflicts. Bne recent e*ample of the
attempts to resol#e !ifficulties in the case of +a(e Cictoria suggests a !ramatic alternati#e to the resource /ar scenarios. 1he nee! to curtail o#erJfishing
in the la(e an! the importance of reme!iation has encourage! cooperationR scarcities lea!ing to conflict arguments ha#e not been common in the region,
an! they ha#e not influence! policy prescriptions (Canter:%!eg/a 4554?. Many conflicts o#er the allocations of /ater use rights continue aroun! the
/orl! but most of them are /ithin states an! international !isputes simply !o not ha#e a history of lea!ing to /ars.
>&man A$aption Sol+es
A$aptions in the mar#et sol+e the impact , this car$ smo#es !o&r a&thors- metho$s
National Post 5@ (%ational Post, April 4=, 455O, 7DonHt panic,8 %ational Post, 'acti#a, Hensel?
1he trouble /ith !oomJan!Jgloom pre!ictions JJ /hether they be about oil shortages, foo! scarcity, /ater /ars or population e*plosions JJis
that most are %ase$ on the linear e2trapolation of short?term tren$s . f, say, rice prices rise, alarmists assume
they /ill (eep rising in!efinitely at the same rate JJ an! then pro!uce scaryJloo(ing graphs that sho/ tren! lines
#eering up into the /il!Jeye! blue yon!er. &ut history sho/s that human a!aptation in#ariably inter#enes JJespecially in
parts of the /orl! that ha#e the benefit of a mar(et economy. -carcity !ri#es inno#ations that pull the /orl! bac( from the
brin(. Consumers ta(e high prices as their cue to consume lessR pro!ucers ta(e the same cue to pro!uce more. A ne/
e@uilibrium is reache!, ;ust as college microeconomics te*tboo(s J/oul! pre!ict. 1hatHs /hy /e arenHt losing any sleep o#er the latest pre!ictions
from Cana!ian mperial &an( of Commerce chief economist Jeffrey Rubin, /hich /ere fronte! prominently on 'ri!ayHs %ational Post. %e/
in#entions, ne/ oil !isco#eries an! impro#ements in e*isting technologies /ill conspire to spare us Mr. RubinHs
para!e of horribles, /hich inclu!e T4.4>JaJlitre gasoline an! tens of thousan!s of ;ob losses in the autoJma(ing sector. n a report entitle! 1he Age of
-carcity, release! on 1hurs!ay, Mr. Rubin pre!icts that by 4534, !eman! for oil, gas an! !iesel in the rest of the /orl! /ill e*cee! that in B)CD
countries. As !e#eloping nations get richer, they /ill begin competing /ith the current in!ustrialiAe! /orl! for !iminishing resources. 1his /ill !ri#e up
the cost of e#erything from energy to foo! to computer components. Mr. Rubin pre!icts this /ill lea! to the biggest economic !isruption in %orth
America since the 3<PK oil crisis. &ut that same historical comparison suggests a reason Cana!ians shoul! be suspicious of this ominous forecast9
,hile the oil shortages of the 3<P5s !isplace! millions of assemblyJline /or(ers an! le! to a temporary
slo/!o/n of the %orth American economy, the a!aptations they spurre! ultimately ma!e in!ustry more
efficient an! or!inary people more prosperous. %orth American manufacturing is far more pro!ucti#e an!
energyJefficient no/ than it /as K5 years ago, as /ell as pro!ucing far less pollution. (Many Cana!ians un!er K5, /ho
ha#e been reare! on a constant !iet of !ire en#ironmental claims, may ha#e trouble belie#ing this, but !espite the rapi! gro/th of our economy in the
last three !eca!es, smog is actually less to*ic an! our /aters less pollute! than in 3<P5.? n an inter#ie/ /ith the %ational Post, Mr. Rubin fell into a
common trap9 He assume! gro/th is a AeroJsum game, /hereby someone must lose groun! e#ery time someone else gains it. M thin( there
/ill be fe/er people on the roa! in %orth America in fi#e years than there is right no/,M Mr. Rubin sai! on 1hurs!ay. M'or e#erybo!y /hoHs about to get
on the roa! by buying a ne/ 1ata or a Chery car in the !e#eloping /orl!, someoneHs going to ha#e to get off the roa! in this part of the /orl!. 1hereHs ;ust
not enough gasoline to go aroun!.M Anyone tempte! to buy into this line of thin(ing /oul! !o /ell to remember the famous bet bet/een Paul R. )hrlich,
author of the apocalyptic 3<=O boo( 1he Population &omb, an! economist Julian -imon. Mr. )rlich pre!icte! that by the late 3<P5s, the /orl! /oul!
begin to run out of oil an! metals, an! that M/i!eJscale famine cause! by !eclining foo! pro!uctionM /oul! cause hun!re!s of millions of !eaths
annually. Mr. -imon, on the other han! conten!e!, that Mnatural resources are not finite in any serious /ayR they are create! by the intellect of man, an
al/ays rene/able resource.M n 3<O5, he bet Mr. )hrlich T3,555 that by 3<<5 a bas(et of any fi#e commo!ities of his choosing /oul! cost less than it ha!
35 years earlier. &y the en!JisJnigh thin(ing embrace! by Mr. )hrlich (an!, to a lesser e*tent, Mr. Rubin?, he shoul! ha#e /on easily. nstea!, Mr. -imon
/on. 1he fi#e commo!ities chosen /ere, after inflation, 65L cheaper in 3<<5 than they ha! been a !eca!e before. 1he same pattern is beginning to
unfol! in 455O. n ;ust a fe/ short months, rising prices for fuel ha#e prompte! the sort of mar(etJ!ri#en energy efficiencies an! en#ironmental
solutions that the green mo#ement has faile! to achie#e through years of hectoring, regulating an! legislating. 'ullJsiAe! -"C sales ha#e plummete!,
home buil!ers are !esigning smaller, lo/Jconsumption houses, airlines an! rail/ays are s/itching to more efficient planes an! engines an! car ma(ers
are scrambling to lighten their mo!els. 1han(s to ;ust a K5L increase in pump prices, the automobile sector is li(ely to raise fleet fuel efficiency more
than all the la/s !eman!ing higher stan!ar!s passe! in the past K> years combine!. 1here is no !oubt that our society is changing because of the scarcity
in foo! an! fuel that Mr. Rubin highlights. &ut it $efies the principles of economics to imagine that such scarcity /ill
persist in!efinitely. f there is one tren! /e can !epen! on, it is that the la/ of supply an! !eman! /ill inter#ene to blunt the
economic shoc(s that e#en the most prosperous nations must ine#itably face.
No Escalation
Ens&res no escalation , these conflicts ha+e ne+er escalate$ %e!on$ local le+els. The onl! wa!
the! escalate is getting highl! $e+elope$ co&ntries in+ol+e$ , that won-t happen
Mle$itsch P@ (%ils Petter Gle!itsch (nternational Peace Research nstitute, Bslo (PRB? W %or/egian "ni#ersity of -cience an! 1echnology,
1ron!heim? 3<<O 7Arme! Conflict an! the )n#ironment9 A Criti@ue of the +iterature8 J-1BR?
A similar point hol!s for economic #ariables. Much of the en#ironmental literature lac(s e*plicit recognition of the fact that material !epri#ation is one of
the strongest pre!ictors of ci#il /ar. Moreo#er, economically highly !e#elope! countries rarely fight one another (Mueller, 3<O<?, although this regularity
is less absolute than the !emocratic peace. 'inally, /hile economic !e#elopment !oes ten! to e*acerbate certain en#ironmental problems (such as
pollution an! e*cessi#e resource e*traction? up to a point, the most a$+ance$ in$&strial economies also ten$ to %e
relati+el! more reso&rce?frien$l!. >ence resource competition is li(ely to be less fierce $omesticall!
as well as e2ternall! among the most highly !e#elope! countries . Going bac( to the e*ample of share! /ater reJ sources,
highl! !e#elope! countries ha#e #ery strong economic moti#es for not fighting o#er scarce water resources J
instea$ they use technology to e*pan! the resources or fin! cooperati#e solutions in e*ploiting them . Poor
countries generate more local en#ironmental problems, /hich in turn may e*acerbate their po#erty an! /hich is also con!uci#e to conflict. Certain types
of en#ironmental !egra!ation J li(e !eforestation, lac( of /ater an! sanitation, an! soil erosion J are part an! parcel of un!er!e#elopment.
No 4ars
No reso&rce wars
Saleh!an 5@ (!ean -alehyan (Professor of Political -cience at the "ni#ersity of %orth 1e*as? May 455O 7'rom Climate Change to ConflictU %o
Consensus .et$8 Journal of Peace Research, #ol. 6>, no. K http9::emergingsustainability.org:files:resol#erL45climateL45changeL45an!
L45conflict.p!f?
'irst, the !eterministic #ie/ has poor pre!icti#e po/er as to /here an! /hen conflicts /ill brea( out. 'or e#ery potential e*ample of a n
en+ironmental catastrophe or resource shortfall that lea!s to #iolence, there are many more counterJ
e*amples in /hich conflict ne#er occurs. &ut pop&lar acco&nts t!picall! $o not loo# at the $ogs that $o
not %ar#. Darfur is fre@uently cite! as a case /here !esertification le! to foo! scarcity, /ater scarcity, an! famine, in turn lea!ing to ci#il /ar an!
ethnic cleansing.> .et, foo$ scarcity an! hunger are pro%lems en!emic to many countries 0 particularly in subJ-aharan Africa 0 but
similar problems else/here ha#e not le! to largeJscale #iolence. Accor!ing to the 'oo! an! Agriculture BrganiAation of the "nite! %ations,
foo$ shortages an$ maln&trition affect more than a thir! of the population in Mala/i, _ambia, the
Comoros, %orth 2orea, an! 1anAania,= although none of these countries ha#e e*perience! fullblo/n ci+il /ar
an$ state fail&re. Hurricanes, coastal floo!ing, an! !roughts 0 /hich are all li(ely to intensify as the climate /arms 0 are fre@uent occurrences
/hich rarely lea! to #iolence. 1he Asian 1sunami of 4556, although cause! by an oceanic earth@ua(e, le! to se#ere loss of life an! property, floo!ing,
population !isplacement, an! resource scarcity, but it !i! not trigger ne/ /ars in -outheast Asia. +argeJscale migration has the potential to pro#o(e
conflict in recei#ing areas (see Reu#eny, 455PR -alehyan W Gle!itsch, 455=?, yet most migration flows $o not lea$ to conflict
an$, in this regar!, social integration an! citiAenship policies are particularly important (Gle!itsch, %or!hs W -alehyan, 455P?. n short, resource
scarcity, natural !isasters, an! longJterm climatic shifts are ubi@uitous, /hile arme! conflict is rareR therefore, en#ironmental con!itions, by
themsel#es, cannot pre!ict #iolent outbrea(s. -econ!, e#en if local s(irmishes o#er access to resources arise, these !o
not al/ays escalate to open /arfare an$ state collapse. ,hile interpersonal #iolence is more or less common an! may intensify
un!er resource pressures, sustaine! arme! conflict on a massi#e scale is !ifficult to con!uct. Meier, &on! W &on! (455P? sho/ that, un!er certain
circumstances, en#ironmental con!itions ha#e le! to cattle rai!ing among pastoralists in )ast Africa, but these conflicts rarel! escalate
to s&staine$ +iolence. Martin (455>? presents e#i!ence from )thiopia that, /hile a large refugee influ* an! population pressures le! to
localiAe! conflict o#er natural resources, effecti#e resource management regimes /ere able to ameliorate these tensions. &oth of these stu!ies
emphasiAe the role of local !isputeJresolution regimes an! institutions 0 not ;ust the response of central go#ernments 0 in
pre#enting resource conflicts from spinning out of control. MartinQs analysis also points to the importance of international
organiAations, notably the "% High Commissioner for Refugees, in implementing effecti#e policies go#erning refugee camps. 1herefore, local hostilities
nee! not escalate to serious arme! conflict an! can be manage! if there is the political /ill to !o so. 1hir!, states often bear responsibility for
en#ironmental !egra!ation an! resource shortfalls, either through their o/n pro;ects an! initiati#es or through neglect of the en#ironment. Clearly,
climate change itself is an e*ogenous stressor beyon! the control of in!i#i!ual go#ernments. Ho/e#er, go#ernment policies an! neglect can compoun!
the effects of climate change. %obel PriAe/inning economist Amartya -en fin!s that, e#en in the face of acute en#ironmental scarcities, countries /ith
!emocratic institutions an! press free!oms /or( to pre#ent famine because such states are accountable to their citiAens (-en, 3<<<?. Bthers ha#e
similarly sho/n a strong relationship bet/een !emocracy an! protection of the en#ironment (+i W Reu#eny, 455=?. 'ace! /ith global /arming, some
states /ill ta(e the necessary steps to conser#e /ater an! lan!, re!istribute resources to those /ho nee! them most, an! !e#elop !isasterJ/arning an!
Jresponse systems. Bthers /ill !o little to respon! to this threat. ,hile a stateQs le#el of income an! technological capacity are certainly important,
!emocracy 0 or, more precisely, the accountability of political lea!ers to their publics 0 is li(ely to be a critical !eterminant of ho/ states respon! to the
challenge. 'ourth, #iolent conflict is a n inefficient an$ subJoptimal reaction to changes in the en+ironment
an$ resource scarcities . As en+ironmental con$itions change se+eral possi%le responses are
a+aila%le altho&gh man! ;ournalists an! policyma(ers ha#e focus e$ on the potential for /arfare. n!i#i!uals can
migrate internally or across bor!ers, or they can in#est in technological impro#ements, !e#elop conser#ation
strategies, an! shift to less climateJsensiti#e li#elihoo!s, among other a!aptation mechanisms. )ngaging in arme! rebellion
is @uite costly an! ris(y an! re@uires largeJscale collecti#e action. n!i#i!uals an! househol!s are more li(ely to engage in
simpler personal or smallscale coping strategies . 1hus, organiAe! #iolence is inefficient at the in!i#i!ual le#el. &ut, more
importantly, arme! #iolence against the state is use! as a means to gain le#erage o#er go#ernments so as to gain some form of accommo!ation, namely,
the re!istribution of economic resources an! political po/er. BrganiAe! arme! #iolence rarely (if e#er? arises spontaneously but is usually pursue! /hen
people percei#e their go#ernment to be un/illing to listen to peaceful petitions. As mentione! abo#e, rebellion !oes not !istribute resources by itself, an!
protracte! ci#il /ars can ha#e !e#astating effects on the economy an! the natural en#ironment, lea#ing fe/er resources to bargain o#er. 1hus, organiAe!
#iolence is inefficient at the collecti#e le#el. Responsi#e, accountable political lea!ers 0 at all le#els of go#ernment 0 are more li(ely to listen to citiAen
!eman!s for greater access to resources an! the means to secure their li#elihoo!s. Political sensiti#ity to peaceful action can immuniAe states from arme!
insurrection.
No reso&rce wars , states are rational an$ strategic
!ean Saleh!an (Professor of Political -cience at the "ni#ersity of %orth 1e*as? May =55@ 7'rom Climate Change to ConflictU %o Consensus
.et$8 Journal of Peace Research, #ol. 6>, no. K http9::emergingsustainability.org:files:resol#erL45climateL45changeL45an!L45conflict.p!f
Bn a fun!amental le#el, if /e ac(no/le!ge that actors face$ with en+ironmental stress ma#e $ecisions
strategicall!, then /e can see that +iolence is generally a poor response to reso&rce scarcit! gi+en the
alternati+es. &arring the !efeat, sub;ugation, or e*termination of the other party, arme$ conflict by itself $oes nothing to
resol+e the &n$erl!ing incompati%ilit! o+er the $istri%&tion of reso&rces. Ciolence is typically use! as a
strategy use! to influence outcomes !uring negotiations, /hether in a !omestic or international setting ('ilson W ,erner, 4554R ,agner, 4555?R
e#entually, actors must come to the bargaining table. Moreo#er, there is goo! reason to thin( that ci#il /ars are e*tremely !isrupti#e to the natural
en#ironment, lea#ing fe/er resources than there /ere to begin /ith. 4arfare is, therefore, an inefficient an$ costl! wa! to
resol+e conflicts o+er reso&rces ('earon, 3<<>?. 'ailure to fin! a suitable bargain an! forgo fighting stems from failures in the
political process, not from the absolute le#el of resources. 1hus, /hile en+ironmental $egra$ation is certainly not a necessar!
con$ition for arme$ conflict neither is it a s&fficient one, since states play a (ey role in containing or aggra#ating
#iolence
No reso&rce wars , too costl! for in+a$ers
Daniel De&$ne!, 'ello/ in -cience, 1echnology, an! Politics, Princeton "ni#ersity, M++)%"M, 1PP5, p. 6P3J
-econ!, the prospects for reso&rce wars are $iminishe$, since states fin$ it increasingl! $iffic&lt to
e2ploit foreign reso&rces thro&gh territorial con.&est. Although the in#ention of nuclear e*plosi#es has ma!e it easy
an! cheap to annihilate humans an! infrastructure in e*tensi#e areas, the sprea$ of small arms an$ national
conscio&sness has ma$e it +er! costl! for an in+a$er e+en one e.&ippe$ with a$+ance$
technolog! to s&%$&e a resisting pop&lationIas 'rance !isco#ere! in n!ochina an! Algeria, the "nite! -tates in Cietnam
an! the -o#iet "nion in Afghanistan.
Co&ntries with reso&rces are more li#el! to go to war
Sharp 5L (1ra#is, Military Policy Analyst at the Center for Arms Control an! %onJProliferation, JulyJ
-eptember, 455P, 7Resource Conflict in the 1/entyJ'irst Century,8 Peace Re#ie/ 3<9K, 1he Center for Arms
Control an! %onJProliferation,
http9::armscontrolcenter.org:policy:iran:articles:resourceFconflictFt/entyFfirstFcentury:, Hensel?
&rito an! ntriligatorHs results ha#e been supporte! more recently by the ,orl! &an(Hs CollierJHoeffler (CH? mo!el of ci#il /ar
onset. 1he CH mo!el maintains that the opport&nities to organi;e an$ finance a war are more significant
+aria%les than any social or political grie#ances per se. "n!er this rubric, the CH mo!el pre!icts that the chance a nation
/ith limite! resources /ill ha#e a ci#il /ar in any fi#eJyear span is 1 in 155 , but the chance that a reso&rce
rich nation will is 1 in 6, accor!ing to the March 455= HarperHs n!e*.
'*SSIA EC(N(MI
Collapse Ine+ita%le
'&ssian economic collapse is ine+ita%leGoil profits aren-t s&staina%le
Q>'*S>C>E3A =55@ (%ina +. 2hrushche#a is an associate professor of international affairs at the %e/ -chool, Chronicle of Higher
)!ucation, <J>?
1hat scenario, ho/e#er, is unli(ely. 1he unstable con!itions that are sto(ing RussiaHs current economic boom may soon
bring about a crisis similar to the financial melt!o/n of 3<<O, /hen, as a result of the !ecline in /orl!
commo!ity prices, Russia, /hich is hea#ily !epen!ent on the e*port of ra/ materials, lost most of its income.
,i!esprea! corruption at e#ery le#el of pri#ate an! state bureaucracy, couple! /ith the fact that the
go#ernment in#ests little of its oil money in fostering areas li(e technological inno#ation, corporate
responsibility, an! social an! political reform, coul! spin the economic balance out of control. Rampant
inflation might bring the PutinJMe!#e!e# 2remlin !o/n. )#en if Russia /ithstan!s that scenario, global forces /ill
ultimately burst its economic bubble. 1he temporary release of the ".-. oil reser#es, an! tough economic an!
legal sanctions against oil speculators aroun! the /orl!, shoul! en! RussiaHs oil supremacy an! hasten its
economic collapse. An! sooner or later, alternati#e solutions to the /orl!Hs !epen!ence on oil an! gas /ill be
foun!.
'&ssian economic collapse is ine+ita%le
AS)*ND =55@ (An!ers, Peterson nstitute, Mosco/ 1imes, -ept K, http9::///.iie.com:publications:ope!s:ope!.cfmUResearchDY<<P?
August O stan!s out as a fateful !ay for Russia. t mar(s Prime Minister Cla!imir PutinHs greatest strategic blun!er. n one blo/, he
/ipe! out half a trillion !ollars of stoc( mar(et #alue, stalle! all !omestic reforms, an! isolate! Russia from the
outsi!e /orl!. RussiaHs attac( on Georgia, its small !emocratic neighbor, /as ba! enough, but its recognition of t/o con@uere! protectorates as
in!epen!ent states has been supporte! only by Hamas, &elarus, CeneAuela, an! Cuba. Putin is turning Russia into a rogue state. Russia
has gone through a gran! economic reco#ery, but its strength must not be e*aggerate!. n current !ollars, its gross !omestic pro!uct
has increase! almost ninefol! in nine years, but e#en so, it accounts for only 4.O percent of global GDP. At present, its per capita GDP of T34,555 is a
@uarter of the "- le#el. ,hile this is impressi#e, much of its catchJup potential has been e*hauste!. 1he official go#ernment target is
to reach half the "- per capita GDP by 4545. t is possible to achie#e that goal, but it /oul! re@uire carrying out e*tensi#e economic reforms !uring the
ne*t 34 years. 1he problem, ho/e#er, is that RussiaHs foreign aggression has strengthene! the authoritarian regime, an!
this has en!e! all hopes for substantial reforms at a time /hen they are nee!e! the most. 1o un!erstan! RussiaHs
economic !ilemma, /e nee! to consi!er the causes of the countryHs gro/th o#er the last !eca!e an! the current challenges. 1he !ominant cause of
gro/th has been )uropean or capitalist con#ergence, /hich Russia has en;oye! than(s to &oris .eltsinHs har!Jfought intro!uction of a mar(et economy,
pri#atiAation, an! international integration. 1he countryHs short economic history can be summe! up as9 All goo! comes from pri#ate enterprise. 1he
go#ernmentHs contribution has been to (eep the bu!get in surplus an! re!uce ta*ation. A secon! cause of the high gro/th has been the huge free capacity
in pro!uction, infrastructure, an! human capital after the collapse of communism. 1he reco#ery /as also couple! /ith remonetiAation, as Russia has
en;oye! one of the greatest cre!it booms of all time. ,ith the rise of the ne/ capitalist ser#ice sector, a huge structural change has spurre! gro/th.
1ogether, the systemic an! structural changes amount to a gigantic catchJup effect that all postcommunist reform countries ha#e e*perience!. 1he
a#erage annual real gro/th in former -o#iet states from 4555 to 455P /as < percent, but it reache! only P percent in Russia.1he thir! factor behin!
RussiaHs gro/th is the most spuriousInamely the oil price /in!fall since 4556. ,hile it has booste! the countryHs bu!get surplus, current account
balance, an! currency reser#es, it is li(ely to ha#e !amage! its policy ba!ly, as the elite focuse! on the !istribution of oil rents rather than on the
impro#ement of policy. As a conse@uence, Russia has seen no economic or social reforms /orth mentioning for the past si* years. Mosco/Hs current
economic !ilemma is that the ol! sources of gro/th /ill soon be e*hauste!. "n!oubte!ly, some capitalist con#ergence /ill continue, but
it is boun! to slo/ !o/n. "nfortunately, it is easy to compile 35 reasons /hy Russia is li(ely to ha#e lo/er gro/th in the
near future than it has ha! for the last nine years. 3. nternationally, one of the greatest booms of all times is finally coming to an en!.
Deman! is falling throughout the /orl!, an! soon Russia /ill also be hit. 1his factor alone has brought the ,estern /orl! to
stagnation. 4. RussiaHs main problem is its enormous corruption. Accor!ing to 1ransparency nternational, only )@uatorial Guinea is richer
than Russia an! more corrupt. -ince the main culprit behin! RussiaHs aggra#ate! corruption is Putin, no impro#ement is li(ely as long as he persists. K.
nfrastructure, especially roa!s, has become an e*traor!inary bottlenec(, an! the sa! fact is that Russia is unable to carry out ma;or
infrastructure pro;ects. ,hen Putin came to po/er in 4555, Russia ha! P>6,555 (ilometers of pa#e! roa!. ncre!ibly, by 455= this figure ha! increase!
by only 5.3 percent, an! the little that is built costs at least three times as much as in the ,est. Public a!ministration is simply too
incompetent an! corrupt to !e#elop ma;or pro;ects. 6. RenationaliAation is continuing an! lea!ing to a !ecline
in economic efficiency. ,hen Putin publicly attac(e! Mechel, in#estors presume! that he ha! !eci!e! to nationaliAe the company. 1hus they
rushe! to !ump their stoc( in Mechel, ha#ing seen /hat happene! to .u(os, Russneft, "nite! Hea#y Machineries, an! C-MPJA#isma, to name a fe/. n
a note to in#estors, "&- e*plaine! !iplomatically that an ol! para!igm of higher political ris( has returne! to Russia, so it has re!uce! its price targets
by an a#erage of 45 percent, or a mar(et #alue of TK55 billion. "npre!ictable economic crime is ba! for gro/th. >. 1he most
successful transition countries ha#e in#estment ratios e*cee!ing K5 percent of GDP, as is also the case in )ast Asia. &ut
in Russia, it is only 45 percent of GDP, an! it is li(ely to fall in the current business en#ironment. 1hat means that bottlenec(s /ill
gro/ /orse. =. An imme!iate conse@uence of RussiaHs transformation into a rogue state is that membership in the ,orl! 1ra!e
BrganiAation is out of reach. ,orl! &an( an! )conomic De#elopment Ministry assessments ha#e put the #alue of ,1B membership at 5.> to 3
percentage points of a!!itional gro/th per year for the ne*t fi#e years. %o/, a similar !eterioration is li(ely because of increase!
protectionism, especially in agriculture an! finance. P. Minimal reforms in la/ enforcement, e!ucation, an! health care
ha#e been un!erta(en, an! no ne/ attempt is li(ely. 1he malfunctioning public ser#ices /ill become an e#en
greater !rag on economic gro/th. O. Bil an! commo!ity prices can only go !o/n, an! energy pro!uction is stagnant,
/hich means that RussiaHs e*ternal accounts are boun! to !eteriorate @uic(ly. <. &ecause RussiaHs ban(ing system
is !ominate! by fi#e state ban(s, it is inefficient an! unreliable, an! the national cost of a poor ban(ing system
rises o#er time. 35. nflation is no/ 3> percent because of a poor e*change rate an! monetary policies, though the
current capital outflo/ may ease that problem.n short, Russia is set for a su!!en an! sharp fall in its economic gro/th. t is
!ifficult to assess the impact of each of these 35 factors, but they are all potent an! negati#e. A su!!en, Aero gro/th /oul!
not be surprising, an! lea!ers li(e Putin are not prepare! to face reality. RussiaHs economic situation loo(s ugly. 'or ho/ long can
Russia affor! such an e*pensi#e prime ministerU
>igh
'&ssian econom! strong???oil prices
'IA N(3(STI 1= 3:4P, 7High Bil Prices Bpen 7,in!o/ of Bpportunity8 for Russian )conomy,8
http9::en.rian.ru:analysis:4534534P:3P5<<6=5O.html, AJ
M' e*perts belie#e that high oil prices /ill allo/ the Russian go#ernment to ta(e measures to strengthen
protect an$ reform the econom! . Russia is benefiting from the rising tensions in the Mi!!le )ast, /hich
are !ri#ing up the price of a barrel of oil, but e*perts belie#e this geopolitical factor /ill soon subsi!e. Moreo#er,
e*pensi#e oil is slo/ing !o/n RussiaQs economic gro/th, an! /ithout economic reforms e#en e*pensi#e oil cannot guarantee economic stability.
Global circumstances /ill ai! Russia along in this process. M' e*perts pre!ict that suspension of oil e*ports
from ran to B)CD countries cause! by ".-. an! )" sanctions /ill increase oil prices by 45LJK5L, /hereas closing
the -trait of HormuA, as ran has threatene! to !o, /oul! cause e#en bigger hi(es in oil prices. Ho/e#er, the M' pre!icts that the '&ssian
econom! will grow , albeit at the mo!est rate of K.KL, in 4534 . 1he @uestion is for ho/ long Russia can (eep up this economic
!e#elopment by inertia.
)ow
'&ssia-s econom! is sli$ing , the!-re preparing for another recession
4hite DE1@E1= 0 Mosco/ &ureau Chief of 1he ,all -treet Journal(Gregory +., 7 Russia &races for 1rouble in ts )*port Mar(ets,8 ,-J )conomy
Bnline, http9::online./s;.com:article:-&355536465>4P54K5KKP<456>PP6P6=5K36K<P5PK6.html?
MB-CB,IPrices for oil, its main e*port, are sli!ing, an! Russia is alrea!y gearing up for economic troubles,
laying plans for spen!ing cuts an! a /ea(er ruble if the global situation /orsens further, accor!ing to 'irst Deputy
Prime Minister gor -hu#alo#. M1he !angers are clearIfalling !eman! for our pro!ucts an! the prices on themI;ust
/hat /e sa/ in 455O. 'or the moment, it !oesnHt loo( that ba!, but /e nee! to be rea!y for the most !ramatic possible shoc(s,M he sai! in an
inter#ie/. Russia spent tens of billions !efen!ing the ruble in 455O an! its onceJhot economy !roppe! into a steep recession in 455<. Gro/th this year is
e*pecte! to be aroun! 6L.
'&ssian econom! in $ecline , &nemplo!ment an$ in+estment pro+e
'ose R *mmelas DE=5E1= 0 contributing /riter to &loomberg an! reporter:e!itor for &loomberg (-cott W Btt, 7 Russian "nemployment
Plunges 1o +o/est n At +east 3K .ears8 &loomberg, http9::///.bloomberg.com:ne/s:4534J5=J45:russianJunemploymentJrateJplungesJtoJlo/estJinJ
atJleastJ3KJyears.html?
RussiaQs unemployment rate fell to the lo/est le#el in at least 3K years last month an! retailJ sales gro/th une*pecte!ly
accelerate!, supporting the central ban(Qs !ecision to lea#e borro/ing costs unchange!. 1he ;obless rate !roppe! 5.6 percentage point
to >.6 percent, a le#el last seen four years ago an! the lo/est since at least 3<<<, the Mosco/Jbase! 'e!eral
-tatistics -er#ice sai! to!ay in an eJmaile! report. 1hatQs less than the >.P percent me!ian forecast of 34 economists in a &loomberg sur#ey. 1he
central ban( left its refinancing rate at O percent for a si*th month June 3>, saying borro/ing costs are
appropriate 7in the coming months8 for tren!s in the economy, /hich gre/ 6.< percent from a year earlier in
the first @uarter. Presi!ent Cla!imir Putin nee!s a stronger labor mar(et to sustain consumer spen!ing an! balance
shrin(ing sales in RussiaQs biggest tra!ing partners, the )uropean "nion an! China. 71he current le#el of unemployment is alrea!y
some/hat belo/ the potential le#el for the economy an! there are certain inflationary ris(s in this regar!,8 Cla!imir 2olyche#, hea! of research at
-ociete Generale -AQs BAB Rosban( in Mosco/, sai! by phone. 71hereQs no reason for the central ban( to become particularly !o#ish for no/.8
1he K5Jstoc( Mice* n!e* /as 3.4 percent lo/er at 3,KP4.P= in Mosco/, bringing its 4534 !ecline to 4.3 percent. 1he ruble, /hich has lost 3.4 percent
against the !ollar this year, /as !o/n 5.K percent at K4.>K. Retail sales gre/ =.O percent from a year earlier in May, the statistics ser#ice sai!. 1hatQs
@uic(er than AprilQs =.6 percent a!#ance, /hich /as the slo/est pace in nine months, an! more than the =.3 percent me!ian estimate of 3> economists in
a &loomberg sur#ey. Consumers ha#e been bolstere! by slo/er inflation as prices gre/ at a recor!Jlo/ rate of K.= percent in May. Central ban( Chairman
-ergey gnatie# this month reiterate! his forecast for inflation to stay belo/ this yearQs = percent target, e#en as !elaye! utilityJtariff increases in July
spur price gro/th. Real /ages gre/ 33.3 percent an! real !isposable incomes rose K.= percent in May, compare! /ith <.= percent an! 4.P percent me!ian
estimates in t/o &loomberg polls. 'i*e!Jcapital in#estment a!#ance! P.P percent compare! /ith P.O percent in April, beating the =.< percent me!ian
forecast in a separate &loomberg sur#ey. 1he go#ernment re!uce! its pro;ection for economic gro/th this year to K.6
percent from K.P percent, saying in#estment /ill be /ea(er than initially estimate!.
No Impact
No impact to '&ssian economic $ecline
C(*NT'I F('ECAST SE)ECT 9?@?=515 ()conomist ntelligence "nit, +e*is?
Ho/e#er, although Russians are !issatisfie! /ith the economic situation, this !oes not yet appear to ha#e affecte!
significantly the popular stan!ing of either Mr Me!#e!e# or Mr Putin. Although the impact of economic crises on
social stability usually occurs /ith a lag, it is ne#ertheless !oubtful that a rise in social !iscontent coul!
threaten the lea!ershipJJ&oris .eltsin manage! to sur#i#e politically through the crisis in 3<<O, !espite being in
a much /ea(er position. Although some in!epen!ent labour groups ha#e emerge!, most tra!e union
organisations are close to the go#ernment. 1he authorities face little threat from a /ea( opposition. 1he
liberals in Russia are in !isarray an! are not represente! in parliament. 1he Communist Party of the Russian
'e!eration (CPR'?JJthe only true opposition party in parliamentJJis a !eclining force.
'esilient
'&ssian econom! can withstan$ low prices
'IA No+osti 11 (7Russian economy can sur#i#e lo/ oil prices 0 2u!rin8 -eptember 5< 33 http9::en.rian.ru:business:45335<4=:3=P3K<>=4.html
a;ones?
1he Russian economy /ill be able to function normally for a year, if global oil prices fall to T=5 per barrel,
'inance Minister Ale*ei 2u!rin sai! on Mon!ay in an inter#ie/ /ith Russia 1o!ay international ne/s 1C channel. M,e e*pect this
fall /ill certainly cause a !ecrease in our economic gro/th !o/n to nearly Aero or belo/ Aero, but in terms of the bu!get
policy /eHll be able to cope /ith this for up to a year,M 2u!rin sai!. RussiaHs finance minister sai! on -atur!ay he e*pecte! /orl! oil
prices to fall to T=5 per barrel in the ne*t one an! a half to t/o years an! stay at this le#el for about si* months. After this, M/eHll ha#e to a!;ust
policy an! re!uce e*pen!iture. As a /hole, ho/e#er, /e are rea!y to pro#i!e stability for a year or t/o an! fulfil
all our commitments,M 2u!rin sai!. RussiaHs fe!eral bu!get for the ne*t three years is base! on a forecast of "rals a#erage yearly oil price at T355
per barrel in 4534, T<P per barrel in 453K an! T353 per barrel in 4536. Russian Deputy 'inance Minister 1atiana %esteren(o sai! last /ee( that a fall in
global oil prices to T=5 per barrel coul! force the Russian go#ernment to cut the 4534 bu!get spen!ing but a!!e! that this scenario /as unli(ely. 1he
a#erage price of "rals blen!, RussiaHs (ey e*port commo!ity, stoo! at T35<.4 per barrel in JanuaryJAugust 4533
'*SSIA EOPANSI(N
No E2pansion
'&ssia is nationalist not imperialist
Pra+$aP (Ale* J Director of the Russian an! )urasian -tu!ies Centre, -t AntonyQs College, B*for! "ni#ersity House of Commons Defence
Committee, 35 July 455< 7Russia9 a ne/ confrontationU8 http9::///.contracts.mo!.u(:p!fs:>.p!f?
!isagree in some respects /ith /hat my colleague ;ust sai!. thin( the notion of any state ha#ing a coherent o#erall foreign policy
strategy longJterm is a !i.cult one to sustain in practice. Russia has struggle! more than most states /ith
incoherence of strategy. t has #arious #isions, set out in long !ocuments /hich are rea!ily issue!, both on security an! foreign policy. t
has tactics, at /hich it is @uite a!ept, in a chessJplaying /ay, selfconsciously. t often lac(s the mi!!le, /hich is the strategic element
of ho/ to match the #isions /ith means. 1hings ha#e impro#e! some/hat an! /e con#entionally compare the incoherence of the .eltsin
3<<5s /ith the increasing coherence an! control of the Putin t/o a!ministrations, an! that goes through to, in most peopleQs analyses, the PutinJ
Me!#e!e# tan!em era. Ho/e#er, thin( that the t/o regional conflicts, the arme! conflict /ith Georgia, the gas conflict /ith "(raine, an!
the han!ling of the global crisis /ith /hich Russia has been trying to grapple, sho/ up the #ery important
elements of lac( of coJor!ination bet/een #arious agencies, the high !egree of personalisation an! !ecisionJ
ma(ing, sometimes the impro#isation of !ecisions, because ob#iously crises ten! to bring that out e#en more
strongly. !o not thin( one /ants to loo( for enormous !iCerences among !ecision ma(ers, but one /ants to be realistic about the !egree of
impro#isation they ha#e to un!erta(e. 'rom their #ie/ of things, as often from insi!e, things loo( much more chaotic than any
smooth a!#ance to/ar!s a strategic aim. He increasingly comments on /hat they are aiming to achie#e, the #ision. 1he #ision is
not a -o#iet #ision. %o one thin( in Russia /ants to spen! /hat they sa/ as nee!less resources on
maintaining some sort of semblance of global reach. 1he mo#es to sen! /arships to CeneAuela an! so on, echoes of
global ambition, are often more criticise! than supporte! in Mosco/ an! they are #ery tentati#e. 1he aim of the e*erciseI
an! this relates to the @uestion you finishe! your last session /ith9 RussiaQs pri!eIis to be ac(no/le!ge! as a senior great po/er,
not ;ust any great po/er on a par /ith 'rance an! Germany. %ot a superpo/er, because that is too e*pensi#e an! beyon!
RussiaQs reach an! ambition in a global sense, but a senior great po/er /hich has particular !roit !e regar! in the former of -o#iet
space, !ealing in a #ery !i.cult /ay /ith postJmperial situations. ,e ha#e to at least emphasiseInot sympathiseI /ith the !i.culties of !ealing /ith
states that /ere part of an imperial structure, lin(e! up in gas pipelines, security arrangements, mental outloo(s, ethnic bloo! lin(sR so !ealing /ith all
that an! yet achie#ing an e@ual great po/er status /ith the large senior great po/ers of the /orl!, an! inclusion in the clubs of senior great po/ers to
/or( /ithin the system.
Tensions limit '&ssia e2pansion
Qhachat&rian 15
(Rafael, J gra!uate stu!ent in political science at n!iana "ni#ersity December 4P 7-tate of Disor!er9 RussiaQs "ltranationalist Problem8
http9::///.!issentmagaAine.org:online.phpUi!Y6K5?
1he rhetoric an! beha#ior emanating from the official channels of the 2remlin has playe! a role in creating the to*ic atmosphere that hangs o#er Russia
to!ay. 1he Russian state is reaping the ugly pro!ucts of the nationalism it has been so/ing for the better part of a !eca!eIpublic
sentiment that it counte! on containing an! harnessing to/ar! its o/n !omestic policies. &ut the relationship bet/een state channels
an! the far Right has al/ays been precarious, !ri#en by political e*igency an! a percei#e! !o#etailing of
interests. ,hether this relationship /ill continue in the same manner remains to be seen, although there are signs it is becoming
straine!. 1his year, -BCA has reporte! instances of ultranationalists claiming responsibilities for antiJstate crimes, targeting public officials in
#arious regions. +i(e/ise, compare! /ith the license of recent years, state authorities ha#e been more busily legislating an!
enforcing la/s targeting neoJ%aAi incitements to #iolence. 1o complicate matters further, there are li(ely to be
!ifferences /ithin the 2remlin lea!ership on ho/ to han!le the far Right, an! ho/ to a#oi! ce!ing the political
terrain of nationalism /hile at the same time maintaining a close relationship /ith 2a!yro# an! stability in the
%orth Caucasus.
No 4ar
The '&ssian nationalist mo+ement is peacef&l
XiYe# 11 (Anil Ph.D., Hea! of Department at the Ministry of 'oreign Affairs of the Republic of 1ur(ey, -pring 4533, 7Rise of Russian %ationalism 0
'ootsteps of the -la#ophilesU9 "n!erstan!ing the Dynamics of %ationalism as a -tate Policy in Russia8
///.alternati#es;ournal.net:ne/:!o/nloa!Fp!f.phpUfY>4Fre#3.p!f?
Russian nationalism, albeit in rise, cannot be percei#e! as the same notion that pre#aile! in the early years of the
postJ-o#iet Russia. n the perio! of &oris .eltsin, nationalism /as assorte! /ith other i!eologies such as communism. 1o!ay, Russian
nationalism is mostly focuse! on a patriotic rhetoric an! strengthening opposition against the moral an!
spiritual !ecay of Russian #alues. t has !e#iate! into a multifacete! phenomenon, ranging from mo!erate !isplays of national unity to those
e*tremist organiAations that a!#ocate intolerance an! racism against those of nonJ-la#ic origin. 1he Russian Brtho!o* Church is acti#ely
in#ol#e! in the 7state sponsore!8 ne/ nationalism to preser#e 7Russian #alues8 against foreign an! !omestic
threats.
'*SSIA INSTA/I)ITI
No Insta%ilit!
'&ssia is sta%le an$ the impact is empiricall! $enie$
Va+ino+s#! =?L?1=JD 2onstantin _a#ino#s(y is e!itor of MGeopoliticsM magaAine an! researcher at the nstitute of A!#ance! -tu!ies in
Geopolitics an! Au*iliary -ciences (-AG? MPolitical An! )conomic -tability n Russia ,ill Attract 'oreign n#estmentM Claims nstituteR RBM),
'ebruary P, 4534 :PR%e/s/ire: JJ http9::///.prne/s/ire.com:ne/sJreleases:politicalJan!JeconomicJstabilityJinJrussiaJ/illJattractJforeignJ
in#estmentJclaimsJinstituteJ3KOO=66K<.htmlE
2onstantin _a#ino#s(y of the nstitute of A!#ance! -tu!ies in Geopolitics an! Au*iliary -ciences, has sai! that relati#e economic gro/th in Russia in
recent years has impro#e! the @uality of life in Russia, an! the prospect of foreign !irect in#estment into the country. _a#ino#s(y sai!9 M1he Russian
economy in the last !eca!e has seen a stea!y gro/th. After the economic crisis in the late <5s, starting from 4555 GDP per capita in
Russia increase! stea!ily rising from about T P=55 in 4555 to nearly T 3P555 in 4533. 1his means that the in!e* more than !ouble! in
35 years. 1he gro/th /as interrupte! only for a year because of the 455O financial crisis /hich pro!uce! a slight !ecline in GDP per capita in 455<.
&ut alrea!y ne*t year, in 4535, this in!e* starte! to gro/ an! almost reache! preJcrisis le#el. Accor!ing to the forecasts of the nternational Monetary
'un! (M'? the in!e* /ill gro/ stea!ily o#er the ne*t year to nearly T 44555 in 453=. ,e shoul! a!! that in the same perio! inflation in the country
!ecline! from 45.POL in 4555 to O.OL in 4533 (=.3L, accor!ing to the Russian Ministry of 'inance J Minfin? an! accor!ing to the forecast of the M'
inflation in Russia is to !iminish in future an! /ill reach =.=6L in 4536 (6.>L, accor!ing to Minfin?. M,ith the rise of income the @uality of
life of Russian citiAens in recent years has impro#e! consi!erably. An! thus the image of Russians in the /orl!
has also change!. 'or e*ample, in taly 35 years ago the Russians /ere seen as a bac(/ar! people, rather poor an! far a/ay from )uropean
ci#iliAation, no/ the Russians ha#e become a symbol of /ealth an! economic /ellJbeing. Russian customers are #ery appreciate! in taly both by small
tra!ers on the narro/ streets of Rome, 'lorence an!Cenice an! by the great talian fashion !esigners such as -al#atore 'erragamo, /ho belie#es
Russians to be Mcustomers number one in )uropeM. Precisely for this reason at the en! of last year the Michele %orsa C)B announce! that Mo#er the ne*t
fi#e years /e e*pect to !ouble sales #olume in Russia, /here the gro/th /ill be Z45L annually o#er the past 46 monthsM. Dir( &i((emberg also state!
that Russian clients are the target of e*treme importance because than(s to them flagship store in Milan, consi!ere! by many as a loss, not only got in
balance /ith the accounts but also opene! 6P ne/ stores in 4533. talian ne/spapers say that !ue to purchases of Russian clients sales of the talian
outlets in contrast to the general crisis. 1he most important talian financial ne/spaper l -ole 46 Bre suggeste! ma(ing in#estments in the Russian
ruble bacause Russia has a high economic gro/th an! its national !ebt is #ery lo/. 1he tourism in!ustry that ma!e taly famous also ma(es plans /ith a
focus on the Russian customers. 1he e*amples are numerous an! co#er many sectors, /hile ne/s of this (in! are !iscusse! /i!ely in the talian press.
1his sho/s that currently the talian business /orl! has confi!ence in the Russian mar(et an! is rea!y to in#est in it. M-o in only 35 years,
Russia manage! to change her image in taly (in )urope an! the /orl!?. 1o!ay it appears as a stable country, a
country /ith an economic gro/th an! /ith many in#estment opportunities. 1his change /asnHt an easy one an!
re@uire! great efforts from the Russian go#ernment in 4555 /hen Russia /as economically /ea( J in 4555 GDP /as
almost half of that of 3<<4. 1o!ay RussiaHs GDP is nearly P times bigger than that of 4555 an! amounts to nearly 4 trillion !ollars. Accor!ing to M', this
figure is e*pecte! to rise an! in 453= GDP /ill amount to K trillion. 1he increase of RussiaHs prestige in the eyes of the )uropeans
an! the strong economic gro/th /ere possible than(s to political an! economic stability of the country /hich
/as a merit of politicians /ho le! Russia in recent years. 1he political !estabiliAation of Russia /oul! lea! to !istrust of the future
of the Russian mar(et an! foreign capitals /oul! flee from the country. -o Russia shoul! continue to mo#e in the same !irection of
political stability if it /ants to preser#e an! enhance the economic /ellJbeing an! thus to remain an attracti#e
country for foreign in#estment.M
'*SSIA 'E)ATI(NS
Alt Ca&se , Iran
Iran-s an alt ca&se to relations
Presst+.com DE1@ (7"- sanctions on ran /ill harm RussiaJ"- relations9 PutinHs ai!e8, http9::presst#.com:!etail:4534:5=:3O:46=P6O:iranJ
sanctionsJ/illJmarJrussiausJties:?
A top foreign policy a!#isor to Russian Presi!ent Cla!imir Putin says the "nite! -tatesQ unilateral sanctions on ran
o#er its nuclear energy program will F$eal a %lowF to *S?'&ssia relations . .uri "sha(o# tol! reporters on -un!ay that the
"- sanctions on ran Mrun against international la/ an! affect thir! countries.M Mosco/ cannot accept that
Russian firms an! ban(s become the potential #ictims of such unilateral actions from the "nite! -tates, the
2remlin ai!e /arne!. 1he remar(s come as Presi!ent Putin is e*pecte! to hol! a meeting /ith his "- counterpart &arac( Bbama on the si!elines of the
G45 summit in the Me*ican city of +os Cabos on Mon!ay. RussiaHs Deputy 'oreign Minister -ergei Ryab(o# also note! on June 3> that Mosco/ is
against the unilateral sanctions against ran o#er the slamic RepublicQs nuclear energy program. Ryab(o#Hs remar(s echoe! earlier comments ma!e by
Russian 'oreign Minister -ergei +a#ro# !uring a press conference /ith his ranian counterpart Ali A(bar -alehi in 1ehran on June 3K. 7Bur stance
regar!ing unilateral sanctions is clear. ,e are oppose! to any unilateral sanctions,8 +a#ro# sai!. 1he "nite! -tates
an! some of its allies ha#e impose! sanctions against ran since the beginning of 4534, claiming that the countryHs nuclear energy program inclu!es a
military component. 1ehran refutes the allegation, noting that fre@uent inspections by the nternational Atomic )nergy Agency ha#e ne#er foun! any
!i#ersion in ranHs nuclear energy program to/ar! military purposes.
Collapse Ine+ita%le
*.S.?'&ssian relations are &nsta%leGstrong relations are impossi%le an$ cooperation won-t
spill o+er
F'()(3 1?=P?=55L (Cla!imir, !irector of the %ational 'oreign Policy +aboratory, ,hat the Papers -ay Part A?
'irst of all, RussianJ"- relations lac( the (in! of plateau /hich pre#ents the para!igm from collapsing an!
changing completely. n relations /ith 'rance, for e*ample, the "nite! -tates may punish 'rance for its stance on ra@, but their strategic
alliance still hol!s. n contrast, /e seem to engage in MtensionJrelie#ing measuresM e#ery three or four years, /hile ,ashington ne#er tires of as(ing M,ho
lost RussiaUM 1he impen!ing change of a!ministration in the ,hite House bo!es no goo! for Russia. Among the lea!ing presi!ential conten!ers are
Hillary Clinton an! John McCain J both incon#enient for the 2remlin. 1he Russian elite is !eeply !isappointe! that its Min#estmentM in George ,. &ush
in 4553J54 hasnHt pai! off, an! might be lost entirely if the Democrats ta(e po/er. M.ou o/e us^M 1hatHs the leitmotif for Russian
negotiators in !ialogue /ith the Americans J but it !oesnHt meet /ith un!erstan!ing from the other si!e. A
fun!amental crisis of trust continues, an! reciprocal suspicions remain strong. RussiaHs image is being
!emoniAe! in the "nite! -tates, /hile in Russia the "nite! -tates is the Mchief enemyM once again. As in the 3<<5s,
RussianJ"- relations are personifie! J uphel! almost entirely by the personal un!erstan!ing bet/een &ush an! Putin. &ut unli(e the 3<<5s, /hen the
ClintonJ.eltsin personal connection /or(e! in tan!em /ith cooperation mechanisms, /e no/ ha#e practically no institutional or treaty basis left for
bilateral relations. Cooperation is a! hoc, on particular problems only, an! the agreements /e reach are not unite!
by a common purpose to create a longJterm foun!ation. n 455O, as in 4555, the change of a!ministration in the "nite! -tates
threatens to re#ise the entire bilateral agen!a. 1he era of s/eeping initiati#es an! pro;ects in RussianJAmerican relations is
o#er. %either Mosco/ nor ,ashington ha#e anyone /ho can achie#e a brea(through to a ne/ @uality le#el.
1hese !ays itHs all about crisis management, pre#enting relations from !eteriorating too far, an! ta(ing small steps to buil! the
infrastructure for relations in the future. t shoul! also be note! that the strategy of geopolitical bargaining /ith the "nite! -tates, /hich seeme! feasible
in 4554J5K, is unrealistic. 1here is no Mmagic mo#eM that /oul! ra!ically impro#e bilateral relations. Bn the contrary,
/e no/ see a range of areas /here our !ifferences an! ri#alry are irreconcilable an! coul! lea! to
confrontation. )#erything is situational, unpre!ictable, re#ersible. tHs a restricte! partnership, bor!ering on
fierce ri#alry.
Ine+ita%le
'elations are ine+ita%le ?? it-s in P&tin-s %est interests
Sigo+ DE=0E1= DMi(e -igo#, June 46, 4534, 7Politics !ri#es Bbama, PutinHs frien!ly faja!e8, &la!e,
http9::///.tole!obla!e.com:Mi(e-igo#:4534:5=:46:PoliticsJ!ri#esJBbamaJPutinJsJfrien!lyJfaca!e.html, DMintAE
Despite ba! bloo! bet/een Presi!ent Bbama an! Russian Presi!ent Cla!imir Putin, their meeting on the
si!elines of a Group of 45 economic summit in Me*ico has not further !amage! alrea!y sour ".-.JRussian
relations. 1hey canHt affor! that right no/ JJ not /hile Mr. Bbama is see(ing reJelection an! Mr. Putin is facing
gro/ing political !issent at home. 'ollo/ing the e*J2G& officerHs return to the Russian presi!ency #ia a blatantly rigge! election, those
relations spun at e#ery (ey stic(ing issue JJ from RussiaHs support of -yrian Presi!ent &ashar Assa!Hs atrocious regime to Mosco/Hs refusal to play along
in hea!ing off ranHs nuclear /eapons program to the ".-.Jle! missile !efense program in )urope that the 2remlin insists on seeing as !estabiliAing the
nuclear /eapons parity bet/een the "nite! -tates an! Russia. t is har! to e*pect relations bet/een the "nite! -tates an!
Russia to impro#e anytime soon JJ not after Mr. Bbama pre!ictably snubbe! Mr. Putin by /aiting for a /ee( before ma(ing a congratulatory
phone call to his Russian counterpart. Apparently it /as !one to allo/ a scan!al o#er the Russian presi!ential election to blo/ o#er. Mr. Putin reacte! by
stan!ing up the ".-, presi!ent, /ho ha! mo#e! a recent Group of )ight economic summit from Chicago to Camp Da#i! to better accommo!ate a
meeting. &ut right no/ the t/o lea!ers nee! each other for political sur#i#al. Hence their !eclaration of an agreement on the nee!
for a political process to en! the bloo!she! in -yria JJ /here Russia has a na#al base JJ an! Mr. BbamaHs e#en more general statement that the present
tensions in ".-.JRussian relations may be ease!. 1his, ho/e#er, may ta(e a long time. 1he stic(ing issues are !ea!loc(e! primarily
because Mr. Putin is emulating a Col!J,ar era, AeroJsum approach to the "nite! -tates, M/hatHs goo! for them
is ba! for us an! #ice #ersa.M -ome analysts say thatHs because of his -o#iet upbringing an! his 2G& past. 1hey are being nai#e. 1he reason is
because Mr. Putin, /ho by some accounts has amasse! an enormous fortune, is lea!ing Russia !o/n to a total autocracy. Appearing soft on the "nite!
-tates simply !oesnHt fit that course of action. 1his is e*actly /hy he has been paying lip ser#ice to the nee! of a political resolution of the -yrian crisis
/hile refusing to help achie#e a regime change in -yria. %otably, the 2remlin has resiste! the ".-. pressure on the 2remlin to pro! Mr. Assa! into
see(ing political asylum in Russia. nstea!, Russia continues to arm the Assa! regime an! help escalate the conflict into a ci#il /ar. 1hat sai!, Mr.
Putin !i! not /ant to un!ermine the Bbama policy of a ".-.JRussian relations reset because he un!erstan!s
that it is in his interest that Mr. Bbama gets reJelecte!. Despite the ".-. criticism of human rights abuses in Russia JJ to /hich Mr.
Putin is sensiti#e JJ the alternati#e /oul! be /orse for him. 1he reason is RussiaHs !epen!ence on e*ports of cru!e oil an!
natural gas. 1he country is the /orl!Hs largest pro!ucer of cru!e an! remains the largest e*porter of fossil fuels
e#en though the "nite! -tates has recently o#erta(en Russia as the /orl!Hs largest natural gas pro!ucer. -o far
Mr. Putin has been able to affor! running the country #irtually as a !ictator because high oil an! natural gas prices translate into high e*port re#enues.
His fear is that a Republican presi!ent may ease the restrictions on the oil in!ustry, /hich, in turn, /oul! help the
"nite! -tates soon o#erta(e Russia also as the /orl!Hs largest cru!e pro!ucer an! un!ermine not only RussiaHs
fossil fuelJ!ri#en economy but also its influence in the /orl!, inclu!ing the Mi!!le )ast, /here JJ after the Arab spring JJ Mr.
Assa! is RussiaHs last ma;or ally. -o Mr. Bbama an! Mr. Putin simply put their relations on hol!, until better times.
'*SSIA?*S 4A'
No Attac#
The *nite$ States will ne+er attac# '&ssia
C*''ENT DIMEST (F T>E P(ST?S(3IET P'ESS P?16?=550
#ano#Hs position /oul! seem to be entirely rational an! soun!. 'irst of all, itHs har! to imagine that, o#er the ne*t fe/ years, the
moo! in ,ashington /ill s/ing to/ar! launching a /ar against Russia. Br e#en to concei#e of some sort of
military pro#ocations. A!mitte!ly, /e ha#e not e*actly become fast frien!s /ith ,ashington o#er the past !eca!e, but neither !o /e regar! each
other as enemies. %o "- politicians in their right min!s are currently thin(ing in terms of thermonuclear /ar JJ
their %o. 3 enemy is terrorism. Moreo#er, /hat /oul! /ar against Russia really mean for the AmericansU Mass
casualties, /hich /oul! ine#itably spell the en! of many political careers. An! enormous economic costs as /ell
JJ after all, the population of a country occupying one si*th of the planetHs lan! mass /oul! nee! to be fe! an!
maintaine! someho/ or other, an! that (in! of !rain /oul! o#ercome e#en the economy of the "nite! -tates
of America.
*S an$ '&ssia ha+e goo$ relations now , won-t go to war
Qric#&s 15 (Richar!, prof, http9::///.rferl.org:content:1heFRoa!F1oFResettingFMosco/F1iesFPassesF1hroughF&erlin:3<==OOK.html,
!/9 4J46J4535, !a9 PJ<J4533?
,hat is more, important !e#elopments are changing the !ynamics of the GermanJRussian energy relationship. Many energy e*perts
belie#e that Russia cannot pro#i!e the pro!uct to ma(e the %or! -tream pro;ect an economic success, /hile
ne/ sources of natural gas are becoming a#ailable on the /orl! mar(et as a result of technological
brea(throughs in e*traction. 1hese an! other matters coul! be !iscusse! at a summit /ith the purpose of maintaining goo! economic
relations /ith Russia /hile ma(ing certain that they !onQt cause serious friction among alliance members. 'inally, ".-. foreignJpolicy
ma(ers ha#e a sta(e in impro#ing relations /ith &erlin that ha#e been sullie! o#er !ifferences associate!
/ith ra@ an! Afghanistan, the proper response to the global economic crisis, as /ell as conflicting #ie/s
regar!ing relations /ith Mosco/. 1o promote more harmonious relations /ith the largest an! richest
country in )urope, the "nite! -tates coul! !e#elop a special /or(ing group /ith Germany to resol#e JJ or at
least mollify JJ outstan!ing !ifferences bet/een both countries. ,ashington, in short, shoul! ac(no/le!ge that it must reengage
&erlin at the same time that it resumes relations /ith Mosco/. A May summit in &erlin coul! a!#ance that agen!a.
'&ssia $oesn-t ha+e the incenti+e to go to war
Frie$man an$ )ogan P (&en;amin an! Justin, ph! an! /riter, e*pert,
http9::///.cato.org:pubs:articles:frie!manFloganFhittingstopbuttononnatoe*pansion.p!f, !/9 PJ=J4535, !a9 PJOJ4533?
%o longer !ri#en by a re#olutionary i!eology, Russia also lac(s the -o#iet "nionQs ambitions. 1rue, Russia !oes not li(e the
!emocratic go#ernments on its flan(s in "(raine an! Georgia. &ut that is because these go#ernments are pursuing policies that anger Russia, not
because they are !emocratic per se. ,hat Russia /ants are pliant neighbors. 1hat !esire is typical of relati#ely
po/erful states9 1he long ".-. history of #iolent inter#entions in +atin America un!ermines /hate#er
lectures /e might !irect at Mosco/. %o/ compare to!ayQs security situation to the one that cause! natoQs formation in 3<6<. 1he
-o#iets ha! at least P55,555 troops !eeme! capable of o#errunning a ,estern )urope left #ulnerable by
bro(en armies an! empty treasuries. )uropean po#erty ga#e Mosco/Jbac(e! Communist parties a realistic
chance at ta(ing po/er !emocratically. 'earing that the -o#iet "nionIby con@uest or re#olutionIcoul!
seiAe enough of )uropeQs in!ustrial might to threaten the ".-., Americans sent ai! #ia the Marshall Plan an!
troops #ia nato. ".-. inter#ention restore! the balance of po/er, ser#ing its o/n interests. %o similar
rationale ;ustifies !efen!ing Georgia an! "(raine. n fact, allying /ith these countries simply creates
!efense liabilities for nato members. Alliances are not free. Cre!ible !efense commitments re@uire spen!ing an! troops, particularly to
!efen! long bor!ers li(e "(raineQs. ,ith much of natoQs manpo/er tie! !o/n in ra@ an! Afghanistan, ne/ commitments may re@uire ne/ recruits,
an e*pensi#e proposition in an era /hen the cost of military manpo/er is @uic(ly appreciating. 1hese are precisely the sorts of allies a pru!ent
superpo/er /oul! a#oi!. 1hey offer fe/ benefits, an! come carrying preJe*isting territorial conflicts /ith a stronger neighbor. "(raine appears to be
li#ing up to its reputation for political instability, !angerously #erging on the precipice of collapse in the /a(e of the global financial melt!o/n.
Moreo#er, a recent poll in!icate! that =K percent of "(rainians !o not e#en /ant nato membership. Georgia currently has Russian troops on its
territory an! is run by a lea!er /ith a !emonstrate! capacity for rec(lessness. nato bac(ing /ill only encourage him.
No war , '&ssia &n$erstan$s potential economic harm
/&sh @ >6ason, staff , http9::///.business/ee(.com:globalbiA:blog:europeinsight:archi#es:455O:5O:theFne/Fcol!F/ar.html, !/9 OJ
44J455O, !a9 PJ<J4533,?
1he biggest loser from a prolonge! coolJoff /ill be Russia though. Bne interesting angle of the Georgian
crisis is the negati#e impact on the Russian economy. n the !ays after the outbrea( of /ar, the stoc( mar(et an! e#en
the rouble plunge!, an! Russian ban(s foun! it har!er to get cre!it lines abroa!. 1his sho/s ho/ far the ne/
globaliAe! Russia !epen!s economically on the outsi!e /orl!. 1his economic !epen!ence increases the ,estHs options, but also means that the ,est
!oesnQt necessarily nee! to ta(e strongJarm measures to restrain the Russians. 1he !anger is that the ,est /ill no/ o#erJreact, punishing Russia
unnecessarily because of the o#erblo/n fears an! simplistic analysis of the numerous Col! ,arriors bac( home.
No war , Diplomac! chec#s
/&sh @ >6ason, staff , http9::///.business/ee(.com:globalbiA:blog:europeinsight:archi#es:455O:5O:theFne/Fcol!F/ar.html, !/9 OJ
44J455O, !a9 PJ<J4533,?
Ami! the ;umpy hysteria of recent !ays, many people in the ,est ha#e assume! that @uiet !iplomacy is po/erless. 1his
isnHt true, ho/e#er, as the 'renchJbro(ere! peace plan sho/e!. 'or !iplomacy to be effecti#e, though, the ,est
has to be seen as an honest bro(er. nstea! of that, /e ha#e typically seen (neeJ;er( support for Georgia, an! the usual antiJRussian
stereotypes. "nfortunately, there appear to be plenty of people in the ,est /ho are no/ arguing for a ne/ Col!
,ar. 1hey ha#e fallen into the trap of belie#ing that Putin is the ne/ Hitler an! Georgia the ne/
CAechoslo#a(ia, so 7the ,est must ma(e a stan!8. n effect, these people are arguing for a cure that is actually a lot /orse than the
!isease.
Deterrence chec#s *S?'&ssia conflict
)antis et al L (Jeffrey +antis, 1om -auer, James ,irtA, 2eir +ieber, nternational -ecurity, #ol K3, !/9 ,inter 455P, !a9 PJ<J4533, li!o?
n 3<P6 -ecretary of -tate Henry 2issinger @uestione! the principle of nuclear superiority9 7,hat in the name of Go! is strategic superiorityU ,hat is
the signikcance of it, politically, militarily, operationally, at these le#els of numbersU ,hat !o you !o /ith itU833 )#en in the e*tremely
unli(ely e#ent the "nite! -tates uses nuclear /eapons against Russia or China, /hether either country can
retaliate /ith one, fi#e, ten, or a hun!re! nuclear /eapons !oes not really matter for !eterrence calculations.
As a!#ocates of minimum !eterrence (li(e myself? argue, one accurate an! in#ulnerable nuclear /eapon is
suffcient as a secon!Jstri(e force. can har!ly imagine an attac( against #ital ".-. interests in the
foreseeable future !estructi#e enough to ris( an assure! nuclear response an! the annihilation of one ma;or
".-. city. 1hus, the siAe of the nuclear arsenal !oes not matter, unless one belie#es that the "nite! -tates can engage in a prolonge! nuclear /ar
an! emerge #ictorious.34 &ecause a minimum !eterrent is sufkcient, Russia an! China nee! not /orry greatly about the e*act nature of the "nite!
-tatesQ nuclear posture. n practice, China can apparently li#e /ith the tremen!ous nuclear imbalance that has e*iste! since the mi!3<=5s. t
currently possesses O503K5 nuclear /eapons, of /hich only K5 coul! be use! on an intercontinental scale.3K &ecause of a lac( of
resources, Russia may ha#e to pursue a similar course o#er time. n a!!ition, some ".-. e*perts ha#e argue!
that the security of the "nite! -tates /oul! be enhance! /ith a much smaller nuclear arsenal.36 A !ecision
to shrin( the ".-. arsenal /oul! also strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime at a time /hen many
obser#ers belie#e that it is on the #erge of collapse.3>
SA*DI 'E)ATI(NS
'esilient
'elations are resilient
STA' NE4S SE'3ICE 9?=L?=511 (7[Arab springQ !ri#es /e!ge bet/een "-, -au!i Arabia,8
http9::mi!/est!emocracypro;ect.org:articles:arabJspringJ!ri#esJ/e!geJbet/eenJusJsau!iJarabia:?
gnoring ".-. pleas for restraint, a -au!iJle! military force from the Gulf Cooperation Council, a grouping of si* Arab Persian Gulf
states, entere! &ahrain on March 36, helping its rulers s@uelch proJ!emocracy protests, at least for no/. A ,hite House statement issue! the !ay
before enrage! the -au!is an! &ahrainis further, the !iplomat an! others /ith (no/le!ge of the situation sai!. 1he statement urge! 7our GCC partners
to sho/ restraint an! respect the rights of the people of &ahrain, an! to act in a /ay that supports !ialogue instea! of un!ermining it.8 n a March 45
speech in the "nite! Arab )mirates, -au!i Prince 1ur(i alJ'aisal, a former ambassa!or to ,ashington, sai! the Gulf countries no/ must loo( after their
o/n security J a role playe! e*clusi#ely by the "nite! -tates since the 3<P< fall of the -hah of ran. 7,hy not see( to turn the GCC into a grouping li(e the
)uropean "nionU ,hy not ha#e one unifie! Gulf armyU ,hy not ha#e a nuclear !eterrent /ith /hich to face ran J shoul! international efforts fail to
pre#ent ran from !e#eloping nuclear /eapons J or sraeli nuclear capabilitiesU8 alJ1ur(i sai!, accor!ing to a translation of his remar(s by the "A)Qs
stateJcontrolle! )mirates %e/s Agency. ".-. relations /ith the -au!is an! other Gulf monarchies 7are as ba! as they /ere after
the fall of the -hah,8 sai! Gregory Gause, an e*pert on the region an! political science professor at the "ni#ersity of Cermont. 71he /hole i!ea
that -au!i Arabia still nee!s ".-. protection for anything V /eQ#e alrea!y mo#e! beyon! that,8 the Arab !iplomat sai!. He terme! it 7not necessarily a
!i#orce, (but? a recalibration.8 1he -au!i embassy in ,ashington !i! not respon! to re@uests for comment. Despite the falling out, e*perts
say there are limits to the ".-.J-au!i !isaffection, if only because both countries share a common interest in oil
flo/s, confronting ran an! countering alJSai!a an! other #iolent slamic e*tremist groups. Past efforts by the GCC
countries J -au!i Arabia, &ahrain, 2u/ait, Satar, the "nite! Arab )mirates an! Bman J to han!le their o/n security ha#e faile!. n
3<<5, /hen ra@i lea!er -a!!am Hussein in#a!e! 2u/ait, the -au!is an! 2u/aitis turne! to the ".-. military to sa#e them. 7n the en! thin(
geopolitics /ill push the ".-. an! -au!i Arabia bac( together again,8 Gause sai!. 7ran is still out there.8
'elations Ine+ita%le
Sa&$i Ara%ia is st&c# with &sGno one else co&l$ fill in
>AMAD(*C>E AND V(*/I' =55L (+ouisa DrisJAitJHama!ouche an! .ahia H. _oubir , Assistant Professor at the nstitute of
Political -cience at the "ni#ersity of AlgiersR Professor of ntemational Relations at )"RBM)D MAR-)++), -pring 455P 71H) "-J-A"D
R)+A1B%-HP A%D 1H) RAS ,AR9 1H) DA+)C1C- B' A D)P)%D)%1 A++A%C), 7'o(rnal of Third World t(dies) Col. XXC, %o. 3,
ebscohost?
"ntil no/, Riya!h continues to re@uire e*tensi#e security assistance in impro#ing an! professionaliAing the (ing!omHs arme! forces. 1he necessity for
this assistance is #ital, for the (ing!om has no real alternati#es to the "nite! -tates for its security nee!s. Potentially,
,estem )urope coul! be a can!i!ate to flilfill this tas(, but se#eral reasons ma(e this hypothesis improbable. 'irst,
)urope !oes not en;oy any continuous military presence in the Gulf region an! its force pro;ection capabilities
are inferior to those of the "nite! -tates. -econ!, )urope is not engage! in a homogenous policy to/ar! this region. Bn the
contrary, )urope suffers from ra!ical !ifferences, the soJcalle! Mol!M #ersus MyoungM )urope, in security matters an! strategy. 1hir!, )urope
pro#i!es significant @uantities of arms an! materiel to -au!i Arabia an! the GCC, an! offers multiple in#estment opportunities
in such /ay that tra!e bet/een the GCC an! )urope alrea!y outstrips that of the "- /ith the GCC. %e#ertheless, the political infiuence
remains e*clusi#ely American. %either Russia nor China can, or /ant to, play a role of substitution. As for foreign
military cooperation, )urope is in#ol#e! in the region through actions /hich ha#e not upset "- interests. 'or a long time, -au!i Arabia relie! on
Pa(istan for some security matters, such as the stationing of Pa(istani troops in the (ing!om an! the supply of Pa(istani pilots to ser#e in the -au!i air
force. &ut, security problems compelle! Pa(istan to rush bac( to intemal issues.
SCIENCE DIP)(MACI
Doesn-t Sol+e 4ar
It $oesn-t sol+e conflicts
Dic#son 15 (Da#i!, Director of -cience an! De#elopment %et/or(, June 4O, 4535, 7-cience in !iplomacy9
[Bn tap but not on top,Q8 -cience an! De#elopment %et/or(,
http9::sci!e#net./or!press.com:4535:5=:4O:theJplaceJofJscienceJinJ!iplomacyJL)4LO5L<ConJtapJbutJ
notJonJtopL)4LO5L<D:, Hensel?
1hereQs a general consensus in both the scientific an! political /orl!s that the principle of science !iplomacy, at least in the some/hat restricte!
sense of the nee! to get more an! better science into international negotiations, is a !esirable ob;ecti#e. 1here is less agreement, ho/e#er, on
ho/ far the concept can 0 or in!ee! shoul! 0 be e*ten!e! to embrace broa!er goals an! ob;ecti#es, in particular attempts to
use science to achie#e political or !iplomatic goals at the international le#el. -cience, !espite its international characteristics, is no s&%stit&te
for effecti+e $iplomac!. Any more than !iplomatic initiati#es necessarily lea! to goo! science. 1hese seem to ha#e been the broa!
conclusions to emerge from a threeJ!ay meeting at ,ilton Par( in -usse*, "2, organise! by the &ritish 'oreign Bffice an! the Royal -ociety, an!
atten!e! by scientists, go#ernment officials an! politicians from 3P countries aroun! the /orl!. 1he !efinition of science !iplomacy #arie! /i!ely among
participants. -ome sa/ it as a subcategory of 7public !iplomacy8, or /hat "- !iplomats ha#e recently been promoting as 7soft po/er8 (7the carrot rather
than the stic( approach8, as a participant !escribe! it?. Bthers preferre! to see it as a core element of the broa!er concept of 7inno#ation !iplomacy8,
co#ering the politics of engagement in the familiar fiel!s of international scientific e*change an! technology transfer, but raising these to a higher le#el as
a !iplomatic ob;ecti#e. ,hate#er !efinition is use!, three particular aspects of the !ebate became the focus of attention !uring the ,ilton Par( meeting9
ho/ science can inform the !iplomatic processR ho/ !iplomacy can assist science in achie#ing its ob;ecti#esR an!, finally, ho/ science can pro#i!e a
channel for @uasiJ!iplomatic e*changes by forming an apparently neutral bri!ge bet/een countries. 1here /as little !isagreement on the first of these.
n!ee! for many, gi#en the increasing number of international issues /ith a scientific !imension that politicians ha#e to !eal /ith, this is essentially /hat
the core of science !iplomacy shoul! be about. Chris ,hitty, for e*ample, chief scientist at the "2Qs Department for nternational De#elopment,
!escribe! ho/ (no/le!ge about the threat raise! by the sprea! of the highly !amaging plant !isease stem rust ha! been an important input by
researchers into !iscussions by politicians an! !iplomats o#er strategies for persua!ing Afghan farmers to shift from the pro!uction of opium to /heat.
Bthers pointe! out that the scientific community ha! playe! a ma;or role in !ra/ing attention to issues such as the lin(s bet/een chlorofluorocarbons in
the atmosphere an! the gro/th of the oAone hole, or bet/een carbon !io*i!e emissions an! climate change. )ach has ma!e essential contributions to
policy !ecisions. Ac(no/le!ging this role for science has some important implications. %oJone !issente! /hen Rohinton Me!hora, from Cana!aQs
nternational De#elopment Research Centre, complaine! of the lac( of a!e@uate scientific e*pertise in the embassies of many countries of the !e#elope!
an! !e#eloping /orl! ali(e. %or 0 perhaps pre!ictably 0 /as there any ma;or !isagreement that !iplomatic initiati#es can both help an! occasionally
hin!er the process of science. Bn the positi#e si!e, such !iplomacy can play a significant role in facilitating science e*change an! the launch of
international science pro;ects, both essential for the !e#elopment of mo!ern science. )uropeQs frame/or( programme of research programmes /as
@uote! as a successful a!#antage of the first of these. )*amples of the secon! range from the establishment of the )uropean Brganisation of %uclear
Research (usually (no/n as C)R%? in -/itAerlan! after the -econ! ,orl! ,ar, to current efforts to buil! a large ne/ nuclear fusion facility (1)R?. +ess
positi#ely, increasing restrictions on entry to certain countries, an! in particular the "nite! -tates after the <:33 attac(s in %e/ .or( an! else/here, ha#e
significantly impe!e! scientific e*change programmes. Here the challenge for !iplomats /as seen as helping to fin! /ays to ease the bur!ens of such
restrictions. 1he broa!est gaps in un!erstan!ing the potential of scientific !iplomacy lay in the thir! category, namely the
use of science as a channel of international !iplomacy, either as a /ay of helping to forge consensus on
contentious issues, or as a catalyst for peace in situations of conflict. Bn the first of these, some pointe! to recent climate
change negotiations, an! in particular the /or( of the ntergo#ernmental Panel on Climate Change, as a goo! e*ample, of the /ay that the scientific
community can pro#i!e a strong rationale for ;oint international action. &ut others referre! to the failure of the Copenhagen climate
summit last December to come up /ith a meaningful agreement on action as a !emonstration of the limitations
of this /ay of thin(ing. t /as argue! that this failure ha! been partly !ue to a misplace! belief that scientific
consensus /oul! be sufficient to generate a commitment to collecti#e action, /ithout ta(ing into account the
political impact that scientific i!eas /oul! ha#e. Another e*ample that recei#e! consi!erable attention /as the current construction of
a synchrotron facility -)-AM) in Jor!an, a pro;ect that is alrea!y is bringing together researchers in a range of scientific !isciplines from #arious
countries in the Mi!!le )ast (inclu!ing srael, )gypt an! Palestine, as /ell as both Greece an! 1ur(ey?. 1he promoters of -)-AM) hope that
0 as /ith the buil!ing of C)R% =5 years ago, an! its operation as a research centre in#ol#ing, for e*ample, physicists from both Russia an! the "nite!
-tates 0 -)-AM) /ill become a symbol of /hat regional collaboration can achie#e. n that sense, it /oul! become
/hat one participant !escribe! as a 7beacon of hope8 for the region. &ut others cautione! that, ho/e#er successful
-)-AM) may turn out to be in purely scientific terms, its potential impact on the Mi!!le )ast peace process shoul! not be
e*aggerate!. Political conflicts ha#e !eep roots that cannot easily be papere! o#er, ho/e#er openJmin!e!
scientists may be to professional colleagues coming from other political conte*ts. n!ee!, there /as e#en a
/arning that in the !e#eloping /orl!, high profile scientific pro;ects, particular those /ith e*plicit political
bac(ing, coul! en! up !oing !amage by ina!#ertently fa#ouring one social group o#er another. -cientists shoul! be
/ary of ha#ing their prestige use! in this /ayR those /ho !i! so coul! come o#er as patronising, appearing una/are of political realities. -imilarly,
those /ho hol! science in esteem as a practice committe! to promoting the causes of peace an! !e#elopment
/ere remin!e! of the nee! to ta(e into account ho/ a!#ances in science 0 /hether nuclear physics or genetic technology 0
ha#e also le! to ne/ types of /eaponry. %or !i! science automatically lea! to the re!uction of global
ine@ualities. 7-cience for !iplomacy8 therefore en!e! up /ith a highly mi*e! re#ie/. 1he consensus seeme! to be that science
can prepare the groun! for !iplomatic initiati#es 0 an! benefit from !iplomatic agreements 0 but cannot pro#i!e the solutions to either. 7Bn tap but
not on top8 seems as rele#ant in international settings as it !oes in purely national ones. ,ith all the caution that e#en
this formulation still re@uires.
Impossi%le
Science $iplomac!-s impossi%le
Dic#son 5P (Da#i!, Director of -cience an! De#elopment %et/or(, citing John &e!!ington, Chief -cientific
A!#iser to the "2 Go#ernment an! Professor of Applie! Population &iology at mperial College +on!on, June
6, 455<, 71he +imits of -cience Diplomacy,8 -cience an! De#elopment %et/or(,
http9::///.sci!e#.net:en:e!itorials:theJlimitsJofJscienceJ!iplomacy.html, Hensel?
"sing science for !iplomatic purposes has ob#ious attractions an! se#eral benefits. &ut there are limits to /hat it can achie#e. 1he
scientific community has a !eser#e! reputation for its international perspecti#e I scientists often ignore national boun!aries an! interests /hen it
comes to e*changing i!eas or collaborating on global problems. -o it is not surprising that science attracts the interest of politicians (een to open
channels of communication /ith other states. -igning agreements on scientific an! technological cooperation is often the first step for countries /anting
to forge closer /or(ing relationships. More significantly, scientists ha#e forme! (ey lin(s behin!JtheJscenes /hen more o#ert !ialogue has been
impossible. At the height of the Col! ,ar, for e*ample, scientific organisations pro#i!e! a con!uit for !iscussing nuclear /eapons control. Bnly so much
science can !o Recently, the Bbama a!ministration has gi#en this fiel! a ne/ push, in its !esire to pursue Msoft !iplomacyM in regions such as
the Mi!!le )ast. -cientific agreements ha#e been at the forefront of the a!ministrationHs acti#ities in countries such as ra@ an! Pa(istan. &ut I as
emerge! from a meeting entitle! %e/ 'rontiers in -cience Diplomacy, hel! in +on!on this /ee( (304 June? I using science for !iplomatic purposes is
not as straightfor/ar! as it seems. -ome scientific collaboration clearly !emonstrates /hat countries can achie#e by /or(ing together. 'or e*ample, a
ne/ synchrotron un!er construction in Jor!an is rapi!ly becoming a symbol of the potential for team/or( in the Mi!!le )ast. &ut /hether
scientific cooperation can become a precursor for political collaboration is less e+i$ent . 'or e*ample, !espite
hopes that the Mi!!le )ast synchrotron /oul! help bring peace to the region, se#eral countries ha#e been
reluctant to support it until the Palestine problem is resol#e!. n!ee!, one spea(er at the +on!on meeting (organise! by the "2Hs
Royal -ociety an! the American Association for the A!#ancement of -cience? e#en suggeste! that the changes scientific inno#ations bring
ine#itably lea! to turbulence an! uphea#al. n such a conte*t, #ie/ing science as a !ri#er for peace may be /ishful
thin(ing. Conflicting ethos Perhaps the most contentious area !iscusse! at the meeting /as ho/ science !iplomacy can frame !e#elope! countriesH
efforts to help buil! scientific capacity in the !e#eloping /orl!. 1here is little to @uarrel /ith in collaborati#e efforts that are put for/ar! /ith a genuine
!esire for partnership. n!ee!, partnership I /hether bet/een in!i#i!uals, institutions or countries I is the ne/ buAA/or! in the Mscience for
!e#elopmentM community. &ut true partnership re@uires transparent relations bet/een partners /ho are prepare! to
meet as e@uals. An! that goes against !iplomatsH implicit role9 to promote an! !efen! their o/n countriesH
interests. John &e!!ington, the &ritish go#ernmentHs chief scientific a!#iser, may ha#e been a bit harsh /hen he tol! the meeting that a
!iplomat is someone /ho is Msent abroa! to lie for his countryM. &ut he touche! a ra/ ner#e. ,orl!s apart yet coJ!epen!ent 1he
truth is that science an! politics ma(e an uneasy alliance. &oth nee! the other. Politicians nee! science to achie#e their goals, /hether
social, economic or I unfortunately I militaryR scientists nee! political support to fun! their research. &ut they also occupy !ifferent
uni#erses. Politics is, at root, about e*ercising po/er by one means or another. -cience is I or shoul! be I about
pursuing robust (no/le!ge that can be put to useful purposes. A strategy for promoting science !iplomacy that respects these
!ifferences !eser#es support. Particularly so if it focuses on /ays to le#erage political an! financial bac(ing for scienceHs more humanitarian goals, such
as tac(ling climate change or re!ucing /orl! po#erty. &ut a commitment to science !iplomacy that ignores the !ifferences I
acting for e*ample as if science can substitute politics (or perhaps more /orryingly, #ice #ersa?, is !angerous.
Ine+ita%le
Mlo%al science $iplomac! is ine+ita%le , *S isn-t #e!
The M&ar$ian 11 (Alo( Jha 0 science correspon!ent, citing Chris +le/ellyn -mith, PhD in theoretical
physics, Pro#ost of "ni#ersity College, +on!on, March 4O, 4533, 7China poise! to o#erhaul "- as biggest
publisher of scientific papers,8 1he Guar!ian, http9::///.guar!ian.co.u(:science:4533:mar:4O:chinaJusJ
publisherJscientificJpapers, Hensel?
China coul! o#erta(e the "nite! -tates as the /orl!Hs !ominant publisher of scientific research by 453K, accor!ing to
an analysis of global tren!s in science by the Royal -ociety. 1he report highlighte! the increasing challenge to the tra!itional
superpo/ers of science from the /orl!Hs emerging economies an! also i!entifie! emerging talent in countries
not tra!itionally associate! /ith a strong science base, inclu!ing ran, 1unisia an! 1ur(ey. 1he Royal -ociety sai! that China /as
no/ secon! only to the "- in terms of its share of the /orl!Hs scientific research papers /ritten in )nglish. 1he "2 has
been pushe! into thir! place, /ith Germany, Japan, 'rance an! Cana!a follo/ing behin!. M1he scientific /orl! is changing an! ne/
players are fast appearing. &eyon! the emergence of China, /e see the rise of -outhJ)ast Asian, Mi!!le
)astern, %orth African an! other nations,M sai! Chris +le/ellyn -mith, !irector of energy research at B*for! "ni#ersity an! chair of the
Royal -ocietyHs stu!y. M1he increase in scientific research an! collaboration, /hich can help us to fin! solutions to the global
challenges /e no/ face, is #ery /elcome. Ho/e#er, no historically !ominant nation can affor! to rest on its laurels if it
/ants to retain the competiti#e economic a!#antage that being a scientific lea!er brings.M n the report, publishe! on
Mon!ay, the Royal -ociety sai! that science aroun! the /orl! /as in goo! health, /ith increases in fun!ing an! personnel in recent years. &et/een 4554
an! 455P, global spen!ing on RWD rose from TP<5bn to T3,36>bn an! the number of researchers increase! from >.P million to P.3 million. MGlobal spen!
has gone up ;ust un!er 6>L, more or less in line /ith GDP,M sai! +le/llyn -mith. Mn the !e#eloping /orl!, itHs gone up o#er 355L.M B#er the same
perio!, he a!!e!, the number of scientific publications /ent up by aroun! 4>L. 1o compare the output of !ifferent countries, the Royal -ocietyHs report
collate! information on research papers publishe! in t/o time perio!s, 3<<KJ455K an! 4556J455O. t counte! research papers that ha! an abstract in
)nglish an! /here the /or( ha! been peerJre#ie/e!. n both perio!s, the "- !ominate! the /orl!Hs science, but its share of publications !roppe! from
4=L to 43L. ChinaHs share rose from 6.6L to 35.4L. 1he "2Hs share !ecline! from P.3L to =.>L of the /orl!Hs papers. Pro;ecting beyon! 4533, the
Royal -ociety sai! that the lan!scape /oul! change M!ramaticallyM. MChina has alrea!y o#erta(en the "2 as the
secon! lea!ing pro!ucer of research publications, but some time before 4545 it is e*pecte! to surpass the "-.M
t sai! this coul! happen as soon as 453K. ChinaHs rise is the most impressi#e, but &raAil, n!ia an! -outh 2orea are
follo/ing fast behin! an! are set to surpass the output of 'rance an! Japan by the start of the ne*t !eca!e. 1he @uality of research is har!er to
measure, so the Royal -ociety use! the number of times a research paper ha! been cite! by other scientists in the years after publication as a pro*y. &y
this yar!stic(, the "- again staye! in the lea! bet/een the t/o perio!s 3<<<J455K an! 4556J455O, /ith K=L an! K5L of citations respecti#ely. 1he "2
staye! in secon! place /ith <L an! OL in the same perio!s. ChinaHs citation count /ent from #irtually nil to a 6L share. 1he o#erall sprea! of scientific
sub;ects un!er in#estigation has remaine! the same. M,e ha! e*pecte! to see a shift to bio from engineering an! physics DbutE o#erall, the balance has
remaine! remar(ably stable,M sai! +le/ellyn -mith. Mn China, Dthe riseE seems to be in engineering sub;ects /hereas, in &raAil, theyHre getting into bio
an! agriculture.M As it gro/s its research base, +le/ellyn -mith sai! that China coul! en! up lea!ing the /orl! in sub;ects
such as nanotechnology. M1he fact is theyH#e poure! money into nanotechnology an! thatHs an area /here they are
recruiting people bac( from aroun! the /orl! /ith #ery attracti#e laboratories 0 thatHs my feeling.M n a!!ition,
there are ne/ entrants to the scientific community. M1unisia in 3<<< ha! Aero science bu!get 0 no/ it puts 5.PL of GDP
into science,M sai! +le/llyn -mith. M1his isnHt huge but itHs symbolic of the fact that all countries are getting into science.
1ur(ey is another e*ample. ran has the fastestJgro/ing number of publications in the /orl!, theyHre really serious about
buil!ing up science.M 1ur(eyHs RWD spen! increase! almost si*Jfol! bet/een 3<<> an! 455P, sai! the Royal -ociety, an! the number of scientists in the
country has ;umpe! by 6KL. 'our times as many papers /ith 1ur(ish authors /ere publishe! in 455O as in 3<<=. n ran, the number of research papers
rose from PK= in 3<<= to 3K,4KO in 455O. ts go#ernment is committe! to increasing RWD to 6L of GDP by 45K5. n 455=, the country spent ;ust 5.><L
of its GDP on science. +le/ellyn -mith /elcome! the internationalisation of science. MGlobal issues, such as climate change,
potential pan!emics, bioJ!i#ersity, an! foo!, /ater an! energy security, nee! global approaches. 1hese challenges are
inter!epen!ent an! interrelate!, /ith complicate! !ynamics that are often o#erloo(e! by policies an!
programmes put in place to a!!ress them,M he sai!. M-cience has a #ery important role in a!!ressing global challenges an! collaboration
is necessary so that e#erybo!y can agree on global solutions. 1he more countries are in#ol#e! in science, the more inno#ations
/e /ill ha#e an! the better off /e /ill be.M

SEPA'ATI(N (F P(4E'S
Non?*ni.&e
Separation of powers are non?&ni.&e , crises $eman$ e2ec&ti+e power
Mregor! 56 (Anthony, researcher analyst at the n!epen!ent nstitute, Gra!uate at "C &er(ele!
ASit&ational TotalitarianismB A&g. 1D http9::///.le/roc(/ell.com:gregory:gregoryOP.html? ::
CG
)#en in the MpeacetimeM years bet/een the Col! ,ar an! the Global ,ar Against Ciolent )*tremist 1errorists (or /hate#er the hec( itQs calle!
these !ays?, America suffere! un!er ClintonQs #ery real !espotism, in such ob#ious instances as ,aco, /hich un!oubte!ly ha! its
operational prece!ents set at /artime. 1he !rug /ar, too, /ith all its militaristic precursors, has har!ly been calle! off,
an! our liberties only suffer more each !ay on that sa! front as /ell. As Robert Higgs has e*plaine!, most famously in his
brilliant /or( *risis and +eviathan, crises an! especially /ars lea! to a Mratchet effectM9 Go#ernment gro/s in siAe an!
po/er, ostensibly as it Mrespon!s to e*istential threatsM (as 2rauthammer /oul! put it?, but then it !oes not retract all the
/ay /hen the crisis en!s. nstea!, go#ernment is more po/erful than it /as before the crisis began, although
not @uite as tyrannical as it /as !uring the hysterical, crisisJin!uce! stampe!e to/ar! collecti#ism.
S(FT P(4E'
Alt Ca&ses
M&ltiple actions are a prere.&isite to effecti+el! $eplo!ing Soft Power
)or$ an$ Cronin 15 +or! is #ice presi!ent an! !irector of stu!ies at the Center for a %e/ American -ecurity an! a former special a!#iser to
the ".-. un!ersecretary of state for !emocracy an! global affairs, Cronin is a senior a!#iser an! senior !irector at the Center for a %e/ American
-ecurity, ,ashington an! a former assistant a!ministrator for policy an! program coor!ination at the ".-. Agency for nternational De#elopment
(2ristin, Par(er, April 34, 4535, 7Deploying -oft Po/er,8 http9::///.!efensene/s.com:article:45355634:D)'')A15>:6345K36:DeployingJ-oftJ
Po/er?::DR. H
Despite this &nprece$ente$ commitment to soft power the *.S. go+ernment still lac#s the
a%ilit! to translate wor$s into action. America remains strangel! ill?e.&ippe$ to com%ine har$
power an$ soft power. The *.S. militar! fille$ this +oi$ o+er the last nine !ears while fighting
two wars %&t it is time to fi2 what is %ro#en. *nless the *.S. go+ernment strengthens its
$iplomatic informational an$ economic tools of power this a$mira%le new commitment to
soft power will fail. A #e! challenge is to integrate the elements of power consistentl! , an! not ;ust in
,ashington strategy sessions but also o+erseas. ,e offer four steps for/ar!9 Z 4e nee$ to create a f&n$ that s&pports
s&rging o&r ci+ilian wor# force into conflict ;ones. -en. John 2erry, DJMass., chairman of the -enate 'oreign Relations
Committee, an! -en. Richar! +ugar, RJn!., the ran(ing minority member, ha#e ma!e clear that a ci+ilian s&rge is one of the
prere.&isites for s&ccess in Afghanistan. -ince Pentagon officials agree, itHs time to put our money /here our mouths are by
using Defense Department money to create a fun! for surging our ci#ilian /or( force in stabiliAation missions an! other comple* contingencies. h 4e
nee$ to create ci+ilian?le$ e.&i+alents of militar! com%atant comman$s that can &nif! o&r
$iplomatic $e+elopment p&%lic engagement an$ $efense efforts. The militar! has ta#en on
new $e+elopment an$ p&%lic $iplomac! missions because it has the ability to integrate these tools, the operational capacity
to use them an! a broa! regional focus J but it is neither enthusiastic nor bestJpositione! to carry out these tas(s. ,ashingtonJbase! agencies focus on
formulating an! coor!inating policy, not implementation. 1hat step must occur in the fiel!. 1his !oes not necessarily mean simply placing a ci#ilian on
top of an e*isting military comman!, such as ".-. Africa Comman!, /here a ci#ilian is a prominent !eputy. t may mean creating regional or subregional
hubs, regional e@ui#alents of embassy country teams, that enable ".-. agencies to integrate !iplomacy, !e#elopment, public engagement an! !efense
more effecti#ely. h 4e nee$ a new t!pe of interagenc! professional, e*pert in the tra!ecraft of one agency but with +ast
networ#s across parochial go+ernmental $epartments. ,e en#ision a national security ca!re in /hich !efense,
!iplomacy an! !e#elopment agencies create career paths of e*perts s(ille! in managing comple* global acti#ities. Hybri! challenges re@uire hybri!
professionals. ,ith e*pertise in interagency strategy, planning an! implementation, this net/or( of managers /oul! create a #ital capacity to combine
soft an! har! po/er effecti#ely. h 4e nee$ a larger ci+ilian e2pe$itionar! force to respon$ to international
crises when necessar!. 1he failure of the -tate Department an! the ".-. Agency for nternational De#elopment to sen! more than 3,555
ci#ilians to Afghanistan in less than one year to support Presi!ent &arac( BbamaHs ne/ strategy an! a force gro/ing to 355,555 troops illustrates the
challenge. 1he go#ernmentHs Ci#ilian Response Corps has set a relati#ely meager goal of 4>5 acti#e ci#ilians /ho can !eploy into stabiliAation an!
reconstruction missions. "nfortunately, this is insufficient for to!ayHs operational nee!s an! tomorro/Hs possible contingencies. 4itho&t a
small %&t permanent ci+ilian capacit! e+en the most %rilliant strateg! that integrates
$iplomac! $e+elopment an$ $efense cannot %ear fr&it. National sec&rit! lea$ers sho&l$ ha+e
no ill&sions that this will %e eas!. A first step to /iel!ing soft po/er /ell is to recogniAe not ;ust its potential but also its limits.
*sing soft power is har$. It relies on pers&asion negotiation attraction an$ p&%lic engagement
? the effects of which are rarel! +isi%le or swift. ,ith coercion, change is @uic(, but &ninten$e$ conse.&ences
can linger. 'or this reason, Mullen !i! something unpopular among many in uniform9 He calle! for limite!, restraine!, precise uses of force.
Cictory !eman!s loo(ing past the imme!iate (illing of enemies, /hich can engen!er !eep /ells of antiJAmericanism. -oft po/er is !ifferent. Tho&gh
the long?term effects can %e pi+otal there is no instant gratification. -ince it is complicate! to establish a cause,
it can %e har$ to #now when soft power is wor#ing.
Doesn-t Sol+e 4ar
Soft power $oesn-t sol+e wars , increases resentment for the A&nci+ili;e$B
Mra! =511 0 Professor of nternational Politics an! -trategic -tu!ies at the "ni#ersity of Rea!ing, )nglan!. (Colin -., April, 7HARD PB,)R A%D
-B'1 PB,)R9 1H) "1+1. B' M+1AR. 'BRC) A- A% %-1R"M)%1 B' PB+C. % 1H) 43-1 C)%1"R..8 Publishe! by -trategic -tu!ies
nstitute?
An inherent an! una#oi!able problem /ith a countryQs soft po/er is that it is near certain to be misassesse! by the
politicians /ho attempt to go#ern soft po/erQs societal o/ners an! carriers. 'e/ thoroughly enculture! Americans are li(ely
to un!er#alue 7the American /ay8 in many of its aspects as a potent source of frien!ly selfJcoJoption abroa!. Bften, this selfJflattering appreciation /ill
be /ell ;ustifie! in reality. &ut as an alrea!y e*isting instrument of American policy, the soft po/er of i!eas an! practical e*ample is fraught /ith the
perils of selfJ!elusion. f one a!heres to an i!eology that is a hea!y mi*ture of Christian ethics (7one nation, un!er Go! . . .8?, !emocratic principles, an!
free mar(et ortho!o*y, an! if one is an American, /hich is to say if one is a citiAen of a some/hat hegemonic /orl! po/er that un!eniably has en;oye! a
notably successful historical passage to !ate, then it is natural to confuse the national i!eology /ith a uni#ersal cree!. -uch confusion is only partial, but
nonetheless it is sufficiently !amaging as to be a !anger to national strategy. -ince it is fallacious to assume that American #alues
truly are uni#ersal, the !omain of high rele#ance an! scope for American soft po/er to be influential is
!istinctly limite!. f one places ma;or policy /eight on the putati#e #alue for policy of American soft po/er, one nee!s
to be acutely alert to the !angers of an un!erJrecogniAe! ethnocentrism born of cultural ignorance. 1his ignorance
bree!s an arrogant !is!ain for e#i!ence of foreignersQ lac( of interest in being coopte! to ;oin American
ci#iliAation. 1he result of such arrogance pre!ictably is political an! e#en military strategic counterreaction. t is a case of
goo! intentions gone ba! /hen they are pursue! /ith in!ifference to/ar! the local cultural conte*t. -ome people
ha#e !ifficulty grasping the unpalatable fact that much of the /orl! is not recepti#e to any American soft po/er that
attempts to /oo it to the si!e of American interests. %ot all ri#alries are resol#able by i!eas, formulas, or
7!eals8 that seem fair an! e@uitable to us. 1here are conflicts /herein the struggle is the message, to mis@uote Marshal Mac+uhan, /ith
#alue in the eyes of local belligerents. %ot all local conflicts aroun! the /orl! are amenable to the calming effect of
American soft po/er. 1rue militarists of left an! right, secular an! religious, fin! intrinsic #alue in struggle an!
/arfare, as A. J. Coates has e*plaine! all too clearly. 1he selfJfulfilment an! selfJsatisfaction that /ar generates !eri#e in part from the religious or
i!eological significance attribute! to it an! from the resultant sense of participating in some gran! !esign. t may be, ho/e#er, that the e*perience of /ar
comes to be priAe! for its o/n sa(e an! not ;ust for the great en!s that it ser#es or promotes. 'or many, the e*citement uni@ue to /ar ma(es pacific
pursuits seem insipi! by comparison. 1his un!erstan!ing an! e*perience of moral, psychological, an! emotional selfJfulfillment increase our tolerance
for /ar an! threaten its moral regulation. t transforms /ar from an instrumental into an e*pressi#e acti#ity.6< t is foolish to belie#e that
e#ery conflict contains the see!s of its o/n resolution, merely a/aiting suitable /atering through coJoption by
soft po/er. 1o be fair, similarly unreasonable faith in the !isciplinary #alue of (American? military force is also to be !eplore!.
No impact to soft power , %elie+ers e2aggerate %enefits , har$ power is comparati+el! more
important
Mra! =511 0 Professor of nternational Politics an! -trategic -tu!ies at the "ni#ersity of Rea!ing, )nglan!. (Colin -., April, 7HARD PB,)R A%D
-B'1 PB,)R9 1H) "1+1. B' M+1AR. 'BRC) A- A% %-1R"M)%1 B' PB+C. % 1H) 43-1 C)%1"R..8 Publishe! by -trategic -tu!ies
nstitute?
-oft po/er is potentially a !angerous i!ea not because it is unsoun!, /hich it is not, but rather for the faulty inference that careless
or un/ary obser#ers !ra/ from it. -uch inferences are a challenge to theorists because they are unable to
control the /ays in /hich their i!eas /ill be interprete! an! applie! in practice by those un/ary obser#ers. Concepts can be
tric(y. 1hey seem to ma(e sense of /hat other/ise is intellectually un!ergo#erne! space, an! thus potentially come to control pliable min!s. Gi#en
that men beha#e as their min!s suggest an! comman!, it is easy to un!erstan! /hy Clause/itA i!entifie! the enemyQs /ill as the target for influence. KP
&eliefs about soft po/er in turn ha#e potentially negati#e implications for attitu!es to/ar! the har! po/er of
military force an! economic muscle. 1hus, soft po/er !oes not len! itself to careful regulation, a!;ustment, an!
calibration. ,hat !oes this meanU 1o begin /ith a #ital contrast9 /hereas military force an! economic pressure
(negati#e or positi#e? can be applie! by choice as to @uantity an! @uality, soft po/er cannot. (Bf course, the enemy:ri#al too
has a #ote on the outcome, regar!less of the te*ture of the po/er applie!.? &ut har! po/er allo/s (s to !eci!e ho/ /e /ill play in
shaping an! mo!ulating the rele#ant narrati#e, e#en though the course of history must be an interacti#e one once the engagement is
;oine!. n principle, /e can turn the tap on or off at our !iscretion. 1he reality is apt to be some/hat !ifferent
because, as note! abo#e, the enemy, contingency, an! friction /ill inter#ene. &ut still a note/orthy measure of initiati#e
!eri#es from the threat an! use of military force an! economic po/er. &ut soft po/er is #ery !ifferent in!ee! as an instrument of
policy. n fact, am tempte! to challenge the proposition that soft po/er can e#en be regar!e! as one (or more? among the gran! strategic instruments
of policy. 1he seeming #ali!ity an! attracti#eness of soft po/er lea! to easy e*aggeration of its potency. -oft po/er is a!mitte! by all to !efy metric
analysis, but this is not a fatal /ea(ness. n!ee!, the instruments of har! po/er that !o len! themsel#es rea!ily to metric
assessment can also be un;ustifiably se!ucti#e. &ut the metrics of tactical calculation nee! not be strategically re#ealing. t is important
to /in battles, but #ictory in /ar is a consi!erably !ifferent matter than the simple accumulation of tactical successes. 1hus, the bur!en of proof remains
on soft po/er9 (3? ,hat is this concept of soft po/erU (4? ,here !oes it come from an! /ho or /hat controls itU an! (K? Pru!ently assesse! an!
anticipate!, /hat is the @uantity an! @uality of its potential influenceU +et us no/ consi!er ans/ers to these @uestions. P. -oft po/er len!s itself
too easily to mischaracteriAation as the (generally una#ailable? alternati#e to military an! economic po/er. 1he first of the three
@uestions pose! abo#e all but in#ites a mislea!ing ans/er. %ye plausibly offers the coJoption of people rather than their coercion as the !efining
principle of soft po/er.KO 1he source of possible misun!erstan!ing is the fact that merely by con;uring an alternati#e species of po/er, an ob#ious but
un;ustifie! sense of e@ui#alence bet/een the binary elements is pro!uce!. Moreo#er, such an elementary shortlist implies a fitness for comparison, an
impression that the t/o options are li(eJforJli(e in their conse@uences, though not in their metho!s. &y conceptually corralling a countryQs potentially
attracti#e coJopti#e assets un!er the umbrella of soft po/er, one is near certain to !e#alue the significance of an enabling
conte*t. Po/er of all (in!s !epen!s upon conte*t for its #alue, but especially so for the soft #ariety. 'or po/er to be influential, those
/ho are to be influence! ha#e a !ecisi#e #ote. &ut the effects of contemporary /arfare !o not allo/ recipients the lu*ury of a #ote. 1hey
are coerce!. Bn the other han!, the /illingness to be coopte! by American soft po/er #aries hugely among recipients.
n fact, there are many conte*ts /herein the total of American soft po/er /oul! a!! up in the negati#e, not the
positi#e. ,hen soft po/er capabilities are strong in their #alues an! cultural trappings, there is al/ays the !anger
that they /ill incite resentment, hostility, an! a potent 7blo/bac(.8 n those cases, American soft po/er /oul!
in!ee! be strong, but in a counterpro!ucti#e !irection. 1hese conclusions imply no criticism of American soft po/er ,er se. 1he
problem /oul! lie in the belief that soft po/er is a reliable instrument of policy that coul! complement or in some instances replace military force. O. -oft
po/er is perilously reliant on the calculations an! feelings of fre@uently un!ermoti#ate! foreigners. 1he secon! @uestion abo#e as(e! about the
pro#enance an! o/nership of soft po/er. %ye correctly notes that 7soft po/er !oes not belong to the go#ernment in the same
!egree that har! po/er !oes.8 He procee!s sensibly to contrast the arme! forces along /ith plainly national economic assets /ith the 7soft
po/er resources DthatE are separate from American go#ernment an! only partly responsi#e to its purposes.8 K< %ye cites as a prominent e*ample of this
!is;unction in responsi#eness the fact that 7DiEn the Cietnam era . . . American go#ernment policy an! popular culture /or(e! at crossJpurposes.865
Although soft po/er can be employe! purposefully as an instrument of national policy, such po/er is notably unpre!ictable in its potential influence,
pro!ucing net benefit or harm. &luntly state!, America is /hat it is, an! there are many in the /orl! /ho !o not li(e /hat it
is. 1he ".-. Go#ernment /ill ha#e the ability to pro;ect American #alues in the hope, if not @uite confi!ent
e*pectation, that 7the American /ay8 /ill be foun! attracti#e in alien parts of the /orl!. Bur hopes /oul! seem to be
achie#ement of the follo/ing9 (3? lo#e an! respect of American i!eals an! artifacts (ci#iliAation?R (4? lo#e an! respect of AmericaR an! (K? /illingness to
cooperate /ith American policy to!ay an! tomorro/. A!mitte!ly, this agen!a is re!uctionist, but the cause an! !esire! effects are accurate enough.
Culture is as culture !oes an! spea(s an! pro!uces. 1he soft po/er of #alues culturally e*presse! that others might fin! attracti#e is al/ays at ris( to
negation by the e#i!ence of national !ee!s that appear to contra!ict our cultural persona.
Empirics pro+e soft power fails
Mreenwal$ 15 (Abe, associate e!itor of CBMM)%1AR., 71he -oftJPo/er 'allacy8,
July:August, http9::///.commentarymagaAine.com:#ie/article.cfm:theJsoftJpo/erJfallacyJ3>6==UpageY4?
+i(e 'rancis 'u(uyamaQs essay 71he )n! of History,8 softJpo/er theory /as a creati#e an! appealing attempt to ma(e sense of AmericaQs global purpose.
"nli(e 'u(uyamaQs theory, ho/e#er, /hich the ne/ global or!er seeme! to support for nearly a !eca!e, %yeQs /as basicallyrefute! by /orl!
e#ents in its #ery first year. n the summer of 3<<5, a massi#e contingent of-a!!am HusseinQs forces in#a!e! 2u/ait an!
effecti#ely anne*e! it as a pro#ince of ra@. Although months earlier %ye ha! asserte! that 7geography, population, an! ra/ materials are
becoming some/hat less important,8 the fact is that -a!!am in#a!e! 2u/ait because of its geographic pro*imity, insubstantial military, an! plentiful oil
reser#es. Despite %yeQs claim that 7the !efinition of po/er is losing its emphasis on military force,8 months of concerte! international
pressure, inclu!ing the passage of a "% resolution, faile! to persua!e -a!!am to /ith!ra/. n the en!, only
o#er/helming American military po/er succee!e! in liberating 2u/ait. 1he American sho/ of force also succee!e! in establishing the ".-. as the single,
unri#ale! post0Col! ,ar superpo/er. 'ollo/ing the 'irst Gulf ,ar, the 3<<5s sa/ brutal acts of aggression in the
&al(ans9 the &osnian ,ar in 3<<4 an! the 2oso#o conflicts beginning in 3<<O. 1hese rage! on !espite international negotiations
an! /ere @uelle! only after America too( the lea! in military actions. t is also /orth noting that attempts to internationaliAe
these efforts ma!e them more costly in time, effecti#eness, an! manpo/er than if the ".-. ha! acte! unilaterally. A!!itionally, the 3<<5s left little
mystery as to ho/ cataclysmic e#ents unfol! /hen the ".-. !eclines to apply tra!itional tools of po/er o#erseas. n April 3<<6, Hutu rebels began
the in!iscriminate (illing of 1utsis in R/an!a. As the #iolence escalate!, the "nite! %ationsQs peace(eeping forces stoo! !o/n so as not
to #iolate a "% man!ate prohibiting inter#ention in a countryQs internal politics. ,ashington follo/e! suit, refusing e#en to consi!er
!eploying forces to )astJCentral Africa. &y the time the (illing /as !one, in July of the same year, Hutus ha!
slaughtere! bet/een half a million an! 3 million 1utsis. An! in the 3<<5s, JapanQs economy /ent into its long stall, ma(ing the
Japanese mo!el of a scale! !o/n military seem rather less rele#ant. All this is to say that !uring the presi!ency of &ill Clinton, %yeQs 7intangible
forms of po/er8 pro#e! to hol! little s/ay in matters of statecraft, /hilemo!es of tra!itional po/er remaine!
as criticalas e#er in coercing other nations an! affirming AmericaQs role as chief protector of the global or!er. f
the Clinton years pose! a challenge for the efficacy of soft po/er, the postJ<:33 age has e*pose! %yeQs e*plication of the theory as something a(in to
aca!emic eccentricity. n his boo(, %ye mentione! 7current issues of transnational inter!epen!ence8 re@uiring 7collecti#e action an! international
cooperation.8 Among these /ere 7ecological changes (aci! rain an! global /arming?, health epi!emics such as AD-, illicit tra!e in !rugs, an!
terrorism.8 -urely a para!igm that places terrorism last on a list of national threats starting /ith aci! rain is !ue for re#ision. 'or /hat stronger negation
of the softJpo/er thesis coul! one imagine than a stri(e against America largely inspire! by /hat %ye consi!ere! a great 7soft po/er resource89 namely,
7American #alues of !emocracy an! human rights8U .et Ayman alJ_a/ahiri, alJSae!aQs secon!JinJcomman!, ha! in fact /eighe! in une@ui#ocally on the
matter of ,estern !emocracy9 7,hoe#er claims to be a [!emocraticJMuslim,Q or a Muslim /ho calls for !emocracy, is li(e one /ho says about himself [
am a Je/ish Muslim,Q or [ am a Christian MuslimQIthe one /orse than the other. He is an apostate infi!el.8 ,ith a !etestable (in! of clarity, _a/ahiriQs
pronouncement re#eale! the hollo/ness at the heart of the softJpo/er theory. -oft po/er is a fine policy complement in !ealing /ith parties that appro#e
of American i!eals an! American !ominion. &ut applie! to those that !o not, soft po/erQs attributes become their opposites. 'or
enemies of the "nite! -tates, the e*port of American culture is a pro#ocation, not an in#itationR selfJconscious
7e*ampleJsetting8 in areas li(e nonproliferation is an in!ication of /ea(ness, not lea!ershipR !eference to
international bo!ies is a path to e*ercising a #eto o#er American action, not a means of forging multilateral
cooperation.
No impact ? Soft power is &seless
Fan L (.ing, -enior +ecturer in Mar(eting at &runel &usiness -chool, &runel "ni#ersity in +on!on, 7-oft po/er9 Po/er of attraction or confusionU8,
%o#ember 36?
Despite its popularity, the concept soft po/er remains a po/er of confusion. 1he !efinition is at best loose an! #ague.
&ecause of such confusion it is not surprising that the concept has been misun!erstoo!, misuse! an! tri#ialise! (Joffe, 455=a ?. Criticisms of soft po/er
centre mainly aroun! three aspects9 !efinition, sources an! limitations. 1here may be little or no relationship bet/een the ubi@uity
of American culture an! its actual influence. Hun!re!s of millions of people aroun! the /orl! /ear, listen, eat, !rin(, /atch an! !ance
American, but they !o not i!entify these accoutrements of their !aily li#es /ith America ( Joffe, 455=b ?. 1o Pur!y (4553? soft po/er is not a ne/ reality,
but rather a ne/ /or! for the most efficient form of po/er. 1here are limits to /hat soft po/er coul! achie#e. n a conte*t
!ominate! by har! po/er consi!erations, soft po/er is meaningless (&lechman, 4556 ?. 1he !ar( si!e of soft po/er is largely
ignore! by %ye. )*cessi#e po/er, either har! or soft, may not be a goo! thing. n the affairs of nations, too much har! po/er en!s
up bree!ing not submission but resistance. +i(e/ise, big soft po/er !oes not ben! heartsR it t/ists min!s in resentment an!
rage (Joffe, 455=b ?. %yeQs #ersion of soft po/er that rests on affection an! !esire is too simplistic an! unrealistic.
Human feelings are complicate! an! @uite often ambi#alent, that is, lo#e an! hate coJe*ist at the same time. )#en /ithin
the same group, people may li(e some aspects of American #alues, but hate others. &y the same to(en, soft po/er can also
rest on fear (Cheo/, 4554 ? or on both affection an! fear, !epen!ing on the conte*t. Much of ChinaQs soft po/er in southJeast Asia testifies to this.
Another e*ample is pro#i!e! by the mi*e! perception of the "nite! -tates in China9 people generally a!mire American technological superiority an!
super bran!s but !etest its policies on 1ai/an.
Soft Power is st&pi$ an$ ine+ita%le
Qhanna 1E10 Cisiting fello/ of +-) D)A-, -enior fello/ at the %e/ America 'oun!ation, Author of Ho/ to Run the ,orl!9 Charting a Course to
the %e*t Renaissance, Author of 1he -econ! ,orl!9 )mpires an! nfluence in the %e/ Global Br!er (Parag 2hanna, January 36, 4534, 71he Persistent
Myths of [-oft Po/erQ,8 http9::blogs.lse.ac.u(:i!eas:4534:53:theJpersistentJmythsJofJsoftJpo/er:?::DR.H
+i(e [Clash of Ci#iliAations,Q the repetiti+e $issection of Usoft power- o+er time has onl! f&rther m&$$ie$
an$ corr&pte$ whate+er &tilit! the phrase might once ha+e ha$ in its original form&lation. &oth
terms are pro#ocati#e re;oin!ers to the spirit of the times, but neither is anal!ticall! rigoro&s eno&gh to impro+e
polic!. f anything, their en$less hi8ac#ing has $eraile$ serio&s polic! $isc&ssions, !iluting them into
sophomoric aca!emic stan!Joffs. Mo#ing for/ar!, we nee$ a far more ne&tral %aseline in assessing power %ase$
not on a latent acco&nting of inp&ts s&ch as n&clear stoc#piles an$ >oll!woo$ films pro$&ce$
%&t on o&tp&tsH $oes it wor#T If the power !o& ha+e is the wrong sort to get !o& what !o& want
then it is &seless. ,ith this in min!, N!eQs 'uture of Po/er (4533? is a fine boo( but a$$s little to the anal!sis of non?
state infl&ence on worl$ affairs beyon! /hat Jessica Mathe/s accomplishe! in ;ust one essay title! 7Po/er -hift8 publishe! in 'oreign
Affairs in 3<<P. %umerous scholars ha#e contribute! far more substantially to the stu!y of pri#ate authority an! influence o#er conflict, negotiations, an!
outcomes. As a stu!ent of !iplomatic theory, the greatest m!th ele+ate$ %! the notion of Usoft power- is its self?
i$entification with $iplomac! an$ their collecti+e antithetical role to Uhar$- or militar! power.
No self?respecting $iplomat with a mo$ic&m of historical #nowle$ge wo&l$ e+er preten$ that
$iplomac! sho&l$ &nilaterall! $isarm an$ operate a%sent coerci+e threats. n!ee!, great $iplomats
ne#er use terms li(e [har!Q #ersus [softQ po/erIthey realiAe that $iplomac! is the tas# of marr!ing a range of
instr&ments of le+erage to get the 8o% $one. 1he (%ama a!ministration has contin&e$ to rel! on
militar! force in Afghanistan has $eplo!e$ it in )i%!a &ses it to tacticall! intimi$ate Iran an$
is strategicall! reinforcing na+al assets across the Pacific to reass&re Asian allies much as any
Republican a!ministration /oul!. It remains then for Mitt 'omne! the li(ely Republican presi!ential nominee, to
$isting&ish his approach in more !epth than his platform slogan of Apeace thro&gh strengthB an! the claim in his recent
boo( %o Apology that he will appl! Athe f&ll spectr&m of har$ an$ soft power to infl&ence e+ents %efore
the! er&pt into conflict. Resort to force is al/ays the least !esirable an! costliest option. 4e m&st therefore emplo! all
the tools of statecraft to shape the o&tcome of threatening sit&ations %efore the! $eman$
militar! action.B 1hus far it soun!s li(e Romney is challenging Bbama for the Democratic PartyQs nomination. t might be interesting to
inter#ie/Irather than listen to me!ia stumps byIthe /oul!Jbe senior a!#isors to both the prospecti#e Bbama an! Republican a!ministrations as to
ho/ they /oul! tac(le our many current !iplomatic hea!aches such as -yria, ran, the -outh China -ea an! climate change, especially since so many of
them are prone to using the har!:soft po/er ;argon that obfuscates the search for real policy. ,hat is most curious about the persistent usage of [soft
po/erQ in foreign policy an! electoral !iscourse in America is that the term har$l! resonates in s&ch a power conscio&s
societ! that still %elie+es in its e2ceptionalism. 'or all its simplicity, it @uite fran(ly goes o#er the hea! of most of the
electorate /ho arenQt intereste! in aca!emic !ebates. No one wins elections %! arg&ing that America sho&l$ &se
Usoft power-. The last $eca$e of thin#?tan# st&$ies on the nat&re of power ha+e come &p with
little more than the coinage of Usmart power- as a +ag&e amalgam of har$ an$ soft forms. Joseph
%ye himself coJchaire! a [-mart Po/er CommissionQ /hose banal conclusion /as that the ".-. nee!s to increase spen!ing on the -tate Department an!
shift from e*porting fear to inspiring hope. As a noun, [smart power- is at %est re$&n$ant to $iplomac! an$ th&s
s&perficial irrele+ant an$ $istracting. At the %e/ America 'oun!ationQs 7-mart -trategy nitiati#e,8 [smartQ is use! as an
a!;ecti#e. 1he program analyAes policy options, measure the costs, /eigh the alternati#es, an! anticipate fee!bac( loops. No%o$! $isp&tes
that America has +ast power nor that it nee$s strateg!. Answering the how to $eplo! that
power is m&ch more a%o&t this #in$ of concrete process than a%o&t creating false $ichotomies
that onl! reinforce $i+isions we sho&l$ ha+e alrea$! o+ercome.
No positi+e impact
A$elman 11 'ormer ".-. ambassa!or to the "nite! %ations, Arms Control Director in the Reagan Ronal!Hs a!ministration (2en, April 3O, 4533,
7%otJ-oJ-mart Po/er,8 http9::///.foreignpolicy.com:articles:4533:56:3O:notFsoFsmartFpo/er?::DR. H
f thereHs in!ee! a /ar on soft po/er, allo/ me to fire another sal#o. 1hereHs no @uestion that important aspects of ".-. foreign policy JJ
$e+elopment ai$ e2change programs $iplomac! ?? are Fsoft.F /&t are the! a part of FpowerFT If
not are the! all that FsmartFT C&tting the %&$gets of the State Department an$ *.S. Agenc! for
International De+elopment ("-AD? $oes Fserio&s $amage to *.S. foreign polic!F an$ can gra+el!
F$ent ... the *nite$ States7 a%ilit! to positi+el! infl&ence e+ents a%roa$F wrote N!e in his article. M1he
result is a foreign policy that rests on a !efense giant an! a number of pygmy !epartments.M -oun!s right, e#en profoun!. &ut the $eeper !o&
consi$er it the shallower it gets. )arly in 3<O3, as a ne/ ".-. ambassa!or to the "nite! %ations, launche! a computer tabulation to
sho/ the correlation bet/een othersH receipt of ".-. foreign ai! an! their foreignJ policy stances. /ante! to (no/9 Di! all that money buy America any
lo#eU 1he %ean!erthalJera computer spe/e! its result9 %ope. >&ge recipients of *.S. foreign ai$ ?? Eg!pt Pa#istan
an$ the li#e ?? +ote$ no more in t&ne with American +al&es than similar co&ntries that recei+e$
no or less *.S. foreign ai$. nstea!, their +otes correlate$ closel! with those of C&%a, /hich /asnHt a big
foreignJai! !onor. That fin$ing, surprising at the time, remains tr&e. Fo&r of the largest *.S. foreign?ai$
recipients to$a! ?? Eg!pt Israel Pa#istan an$ Afghanistan ?? all ta#e contrar! positions on
iss&es of critical importance to the 4hite >o&se. So&th 3ietnam once got go%s JJ gobs upon gobs JJ of
*.S. foreign ai$. That $i$n7t help m&ch. )i#ewise with Eg!pt Iran Pa#istan Vaire (no/ the
MDemocraticM Republic of the Congo?, an$ other Ffrien$l!F (rea!9 graciously /illing to ta(e ".-. money? co&ntries. 1he conclusion
seems clear9 The relationship %etween Fthe *nite$ States7 a%ilit! to positi+el! infl&ence e+ents
a%roa$F as N!e p&ts it an$ the amo&nt of *.S. foreign ai$ a co&ntr! recei+es is &nclear at %est.
'or !eca!es no/, the *nite$ States has %een the No. 1 foreign?ai$ $onor JJ it has gi#en the most money to poor countries
JJ so it can7t mo+e &p an! on that scale. /&t this hasn7t translate$ in ma#ing America the most
pop&lar or most infl&ential co&ntr! aro&n$ the worl$. C&ite the contrar!. E+en the all?time No.
1 recipient of *.S. ai$ Israel re%&ffs 4ashington constantl!, on momentous issues of peace. Moreo#er, Israeli
polls show the lowest appro+al for the *.S. presi$ent of nearl! an!where in the worl$. Hence it7s
har$ to see what a F$entF in Fthe *nite$ States7 a%ilit! to positi+el! infl&ence e+ents a%roa$F
wo&l$ loo# li#e if 'ep&%licans in Congress $i$ slice these co&ntries7 foreign ai$ as Joe %ye !rea!s. t
might loo( li(e, /ell, much li(e it !oes to!ay. Put bluntly, this aspect of soft power ?? foreign ai$, by far the biggest in !ollar terms,
amo&nting to some K95 %illion* a !ear ?? ma! not constit&te m&ch power at all. 1he reason has to !o /ith
peculiar aspects of human nature. Mi+ing someone a gift generates initial gratit&$e (often along /ith @uiet gripes about /hy
it /asnHt bigger?. The secon$ time the gift generates less gratit&$e (an! more such griping?. /! the thir$
iteration it has %ecome an entitlement. The slightest $ecline engen$ers resentment $owning
o&t an! lingering gratit&$e.
Mo+ernment Can-t Control
The go+ernment cannot control soft powerGit is the perception of the entire societ! that
matters.
Mra! =511 0 Professor of nternational Politics an! -trategic -tu!ies at the "ni#ersity of Rea!ing, )nglan!. (Colin -., April, 7HARD PB,)R A%D
-B'1 PB,)R9 1H) "1+1. B' M+1AR. 'BRC) A- A% %-1R"M)%1 B' PB+C. % 1H) 43-1 C)%1"R..8 Publishe! by -trategic -tu!ies
nstitute?
Moreo#er, no contemporary ".-. go#ernment o/ns all of AmericaQs soft po/erIa consi!erable un!erstatement.
%or !o contemporary Americans an! their institutions o/n all of their countryQs soft po/er. America to!ay is
the pro!uct of AmericaQs many yester!ays, an! the /orl!/i!e target au!iences for American soft po/er respon!
to the /hole of the America that they ha#e percei#e!, inclu!ing facts, legen!s, an! myths.63 Bb#iously, /hat they un!erstan! about
America may /ell be substantially untrue, certainly it /ill be incomplete. At a minimum, foreigners must react to an American soft
po/er that is filtere! by their local cultural interpretation. America is a future oriente! country, e#er rema(ing itself
an! belie#ing that, /ith the grace of Go!, history mo#es for/ar! progressi#ely to/ar! an e#erJbetter tomorro/. 1his optimistic American futurism both
contrasts /ith foreignersQ cultural pessimismItheir gol!en ages may lie in the past, not the futureI/hich pre#ails in much of the /orl! an! is liable to
mislea! Americans as to the reception our soft po/er story /ill ha#e.64 Many people in!ee!, probably most people, in the /orl!
beyon! the "nite! -tates ha#e a fairly settle! #ie/ of America, American purposes, an! Americans. 1his locally hel!
#ie/ !eri#es from their /hole e*perience of e*posure to things American as /ell as from the features of their o/n 7cultural thought/ays8 an! history that
shape their interpretation of AmericanJauthore! /or!s an! !ee!s, past an! present.6K
S(*T> C>INA SEA 4A'
No Escalation
So&th China Sea conflict won-t escalate or $raw the *S in???$eterrence chec#s
China Post 11 =:4K, 7Arme! conflict for control of -outh China -ea unli(ely,8 http9::///.chinapost.com.t/:e!itorial:/orl!J
issues:4533:5=:4K:K5P3K6:Arme!Jconflict.htm, AJ
tHs true that Cietnam is trying to manufacture a /ar scare o#er the -pratly slan!s, a large archipelago that sits atop #ery rich
oil reser#es in the -outh China -ea. 1he Cietnamese na#y has con!ucte! a li#eJfire e*ercise to fle* its military muscle in a
sho/ of force against the PeopleHs Republic of China. 1he PeopleHs +iberation Army retaliate! in (in! by sen!ing its na#al
flotilla to the -pratlys, /hose largest an! only habitable islan! is un!er control of the Republic of China. At least si* countries I inclu!ing
1ai/an, China, Cietnam an! the Philippines I claim so#ereignty o#er the -pratlys, (no/n in Chinese as %ansha Jun!ao
(-outh -an! slan!s?. 1he only habitable islan! of the chain /as first occupie! by the Japanese shortly before ,orl! ,ar an! /hat the Japanese calle!
%agashima (+ong slan!? /as rename! 1aiping (Peace? after an R.B.C. /arship of that name that brought a small contingent to the islet to ta(e o#er
after the /ar. 1he Japanese place! the /hole group un!er ;uris!iction of 1a(aoJshu, /hich is the presentJ!ay special municipality of 2aohsiung.
1ai/an isnHt much concerne!, though tensions are mounting o#er the -pratlys. 1he Ministry of %ational Defense !enie! on
-atur!ay that thereHs a plan to pro#i!e HaiJou (-ea Gull? missile boats an! M63AK tan(s to the coast guar! personnel
statione! on 1aiping slan!. %or /ill the R.B.C. %a#y stage a maneu#er at the en! of this month, an M%D
spo(esman pointe! out. 1hereHs no nee! /hatsoe#er to ta(e any such action, because itHs ;ust a HanoiJfomente! /ar scare.
1ai/an /ith!re/ marines from 1aiping in 3<<<, an! coast guar! personnel replace! them. 4e are positi+e
that no arme$ conflict will occ&r o+er the Spratl!s. Despite the hollo/ saberJrattling, Cietnam an! the
Philippines, /ho claim uninhabite! isles of the archipelago, ha#e no stomach for a /ar against 1ai/an an!
China. 1he Cietnamese /ere !efeate! by China in 3<P6 an! ouste! from the Paracel slan!s an! XishaJ;un!ao (,est -an! slan!s? that
lie south of Hainan an! @uite near Danang in southern Cietnam. A brief sea encounter too( place bet/een the t/o countries o#er
the -pratlys a fe/ years ago, an! the Cietnamese /ere trounce!. n lan! battles, the Cietnamese may out!o the
PeopleHs +iberation ArmyR an! in fact, they !i! in a brief /ar /ith the PRC un!er Deng Xiaoping in 3<O<. Hanoi (no/s full /ell itHs
no match for the P+A %a#y. -o the Cietnamese /ish to !ra/ the "nite! -tates into any possible fray /ith &ei;ing. At
one time, ,ashington /as /illing to bac( up Hanoi. ".-. -ecretary of -tate Hillary Clinton sai! so, though not in so many /or!s, at an
A-)A% (Association of -outheast Asian %ations? meeting in Hanoi earlier this year. &ut ,ashington has change! its min!. A ".-. -tate
Department spo(esman tol! the press not long ago that the "nite! -tates !i! not support the Cietnamese sea
maneu#er, /hich isnHt con!uci#e to the re!uction of tensions in the region. %o/ that the *.S. has ref&se$ to
si$e with 3ietnam in an! arme$ conflict with China , the only thing Hanoi can an! shoul! !o is scale
!o/n its !efense buil!up. tHs planning to buy si* 2iro# submarines an! 34 -u(hoi K5 fighters from Russia. srael is sai! to be selling shortJ
range ballistic missiles to Cietnam. 1hereHs no reason /hy such e*pensi#e military har!/are shoul! be ac@uire! for a
sha!o/bo*ing match /ith China. nstea!, Hanoi shoul! spen! its har! currency to promote economic gro/th an!
enable the Cietnamese people to li#e better. &ut there is one thing the "nite! -tates can an! shoul! !o. ,ashington must call
an international conference on the security of sea lanes in the -outh China -ea. &ei;ing is against American
participation in regional meetings to hammer out plans to shel#e the issue of so#ereignty an! ;ointly tap the oil
resources of the -pratlys, but seems rea!y to support a ,ashington conference on the security of the -outh
China -ea. 1he "nite! -tates shoul! in#ite 1aipei to ta(e part in that meeting.
STEE) IND*ST'I
)ow Now
China Steel wea# now? slowe$ growth profit $ecline an$ e2port sl&mp pro+e
China Dail! D?=9 DChina Daily, =J4KJ34, 7China cru!e steel sector gro/s slo/er8,
httpHEEwww.china$ail!.com.cnE%&sinessE=51=?5DE=9EcontentS1661P=DL.htm"EE
CM
&)J%G J Gro/th of ChinaHs cru!e steel output slo/e! in the first fi#e months, as !eman! !roppe! ami! a
cooling !omestic economy, accor!ing to !ata from the countryHs top economic planner. Cru!e steel output increase! by 4.4 percent yearJonJ
year to 4<=.4= million tons !uring the JanuaryJMay perio!, !o/n from O.>Jpercent gro/th recor!e! !uring the same perio! last year, !ata /ith the
%ational De#elopment an! Research Commission sho/e!. n May, cru!e steel output rose 4.> percent from a year earlier, >.K percentage points lo/er
than last year. Asi!e from output, the sectorHs profits also slippe! sharply. -teel pro!ucers sa/ profits !o/n 6<.> percent
from a year earlier to K<.> billion yuan (T=.4P billion? in the first four months. n brea(!o/n, profits of ferrous
metals mining an! !ressing companies !roppe! P.< percent, /hile steel smelting an! processing companies
sa/ profits !o/n =O.O percent. -teel price also fell in May, as the countryHs a#erage steel composite price in!e* retreate! 3P.4O points from
last year to 33O.P=. 1he figure /as also 4.P= points lo/er than the pre#ious month. ChinaHs manufacturing sector has been har! hit,
after the country intro!uce! measures to cool its property mar(et, a ma;or steel user, an! e*ports slumpe!
ami! a lingering euroAone crisis.
Chinese steel econom! failing nowG$eman$ an$ prices pl&mmeting.
Cho+anec 1= (7Ho/ China Coul! )asily Ha#e A Har! +an!ing ,ith Any -lo/!o/n n Construction Gro/th8
Patric( Cho#anec (Associate Professor of Practice at 1singhua "ni#ersityQs -chool of )conomics an!
Management in &ei;ing, China.? January 3=, 4534 http9::articles.businessinsi!er.com:4534J53J
3=:mar(ets:K5=K355OF3FrealJestateJhar!Jlan!ingJg!p:K?:: CG
1here are t/o /ays that the !rop in the property mar(et translates into slo/er economic gro/th9 !irect an! in!irect. 1he !irect
impact is fairly ob#ious9 to the e*tent that ChinaQs real estate !e#elopers are o#ere*ten!e!, an! preoccupie! /ith selling off their e*isting in#entory in
or!er to sta#e off ban(ruptcy, they /onQt be commissioning any ne/ pro;ects I maybe not for @uite a /hile. 1hat means no /or( for construction
companies, /hich in turn /onQt be buying any ne/ construction e@uipment. t also means less !eman! for steel (construction
reporte!ly accounts for 65L of ChinaQs steel !eman!?, cement, glass, copper pipes an! /iring, etc. t also means less furniture an!
fe/er appliances to fill those ne/ homes (although, as /e (no/, many Chinese in#estors alrea!y lea#e the units they buy empty any/ay?. 1he estimates
Q#e seen say these sectors !epen!ent on property construction account for bet/een 45L an! 4>L of ChinaQs total GDP.
'ran(ly, you !onQt nee! a real estate collapse in or!er to trigger a serious slo/!o/n in these sectors. All you nee! is a pause in the
hitherto frantic pace of construction. +etQs assume the bull argument that, !ue to urbaniAation an! rising incomes, speculators are right9 all the
units theyQre snapping up to!ay, an! hol!ing as in#estments, /ill ultimately be fille! /ith en! users. 1hat still assumes a catchJup perio!. f real estate
in#estment, /hich accor!ing to monthly official figures has (e#en into %o#ember? been gro/ing at bK5L yearJonJyear, (eeps outpacing urbaniAation an!
rising incomes, the gap /ill ne#er close. At some point, the pace of construction has to mo!erate to gi#e all that anticipate! en! user !eman! a chance to
materialiAe, an! start filling all those #acancies. f !eman! isnQt /hat speculators imagine it to be, at to!ayQs s(yJhigh prices, the a!;ustment I an!
resulting slo/!o/n I /ill be e#en more se#ere. -o /hat e#i!ence !o /e ha#e that a construction slo/!o/n may be occurringU Bfficial !ata on housing
starts !oes e*ist, but itQs not a reliable metric. De#elopers stan! to lose their lan! bac( to the go#ernment if they !onQt !o anything /ith it after a fe/
years. 1hey are also un!er consi!erable pressure to sho/ progress on 7social housing8 man!ates that may be a con!ition of obtaining lan!. 'or both
reasons, !e#elopers /ill often !ig a hole in the groun! an! call it a 7start,8 e#en if they inten! to !elay further /or( in!efinitely. +ast month, ChinaQs
Ministry of Housing an! "rbanJRural De#elopment (MBH"RD? estimate! that as much as 3:K of reporte! social housing starts /ere ;ust 7!igging a
hole8 rather than actually buil!ing apartments. A better approach is to loo( at the mar(et for construction inputs. 1he clearest picture /e ha#e is for
steel. Accor!ing to a frien! of mine /ho is an analyst in the steel an! commo!ities sector, an! recently complete! a country/i!e tour of tal(ing to
pro!ucers, sentiment in ChinaQs steel in!ustry is as gloomy as he has e#er seen it. n %o#ember, Chinese steel output /as
!o/n JO.OL monthJonJmonth, !o/n for the si*th month in ro/. More importantly, it /as !o/n J5.=L yearJonJyear, in!icating this
/as more than ;ust a seasonal or partial fallJoff from the allJtime highs it hit in the first half of 4533, /hich /ere !ri#en in large part by
!eman! for cheap rebar for construction. Apparently, the !eman! that !ro#e that boom has almost entirely !isappeare!.
nterestingly, accor!ing to one report by -hanghai -ecurity %e/s, steelma(ers say that actual sales in 4533 faile! to match official 7social housing8
construction !ata. 'igures release! by the China ron an! -teel Association last /ee( in!icate that steel output continue! falling in December, by K.OPL
monthJonJmonth. %ot surprisingly, t/o things ha#e happene!. 'irst, !omestic iron ore prices ha#e plummete! as unuse!
stoc(piles ha#e accumulate!. 1he China ron an! -teel Association recently announce! that its iron ore price in!e* has fallen 44L in the past
four months, since the beginning of -eptember, /hile iron ore in#entories at Chinese ports rose to <=.O million tons by the en! of 4533, up K4L from the
year before (Chinese iron ore imports /ere still up 35L yJonJy in December, but analysts e*pect buying to slo/ in coming months, !ue to flagging
!eman!?. -econ!, Chinese steelma(ers are suffering. Accor!ing to Cai;ing, more than 3:K of them e*perience! losses in Bctober an!
%o#ember, an! the in!ustry as a /hole sa/ a net loss of RM& <45 million ("-T 36= million? e*clu!ing in#estment gains.
TE''('ISM
ATH )oose N&#es
No loose n&#es
M&eller @ 3:3, $John Mueller9 Department of Political -cience, Bhio -tate "ni#ersity, 71H) A1BMC 1)RRBR-19 A--)--%G 1H)
+2)+HBBD,8 http9::polisci.osu.e!u:faculty:;mueller:AP-ACHGB.PD', AJ
1here has been a lot of /orry about Mloose nu(es,M particularly in postJCommunist RussiaJJ/eapons, Msuitcase bombsM in particular,
that can be stolen or bought illicitly. Ho/e#er, /hen as(e!, Russian nuclear officials an! e*perts on the Russian
nuclear programs Ma!amantly !eny that al Sae!a or any other terrorist group coul! ha#e bought -o#ietJma!e
suitcase nu(es.M 1hey further point out that the bombs, all built before 3<<3, are $iffic&lt to maintain an! ha#e a lifespan of
one to three years after /hich they become Mra!ioacti#e scrap metalM (&a!(hen 4556?. -imilarly, a careful assessment of the
concern con!ucte! by the Center for %onproliferation -tu!ies has conclu!e! that it is &nli#el! that an! of these $e+ices ha+e
act&all! %een lost an! that, regar!less, their effecti#eness /oul! be #ery lo/ or e#en nonJe*istent because
they re@uire continual maintenance (4554, 6, 34R see also -mith an! Hoffman 3<<PR +ange/iesche 455P, 3<?. &y 455P, e#en such alarmists
at Anna Pluto an! Peter _immerman /ere conclu!ing that Mt is probably true that there are no 7loose n&#es7 , transportable
nuclear /eapons missing from their proper storage locations an! a#ailable for purchase in some /ay (455P, >=?. t
might be a!!e! that '&ssia has an intense interest in controlling an! weapons on its territory since it is
li(ely to be a prime target of any illicit use by terrorist groups, particularly, of course, Chechen ones /ith /hom it has been /aging
an #icious onJan!Joff /ar for o#er a !eca!e (Cameron 4556, O6?. Bfficials there insist that all /eapons ha#e either been !estroye! or are
secure!, an! the e*perts polle! by +inAer (4556? point out that Mit /oul! be #ery !ifficult for terrorists to figure out on their
o/n ho/ to /or( a Russian or Pa(istan bombM e#en if they !i! obtain one because e#en the simplest of these
Mhas some security features that /oul! ha#e to be !efeate! before it coul! be use!M (see also 2amp 3<<=, K6R ,irA an!
)gger 455>, >54R +ange/iesche 455P, 3<?. Bne of the e*perts, Charles 'erguson, stresses .ouH! ha#e to run it through a specific
se@uence of e#ents, inclu!ing changes in temperature, pressure an! en#ironmental con!itions before the
/eapon /oul! allo/ itself to be arme!, for the fuses to fall into place an! then for it to allo/ itself to be fire!.
.ou !onHt get off the shelf, enter a co!e an! ha#e it go off. Moreo#er, continues +inAer, most bombs that coul! concei#ably be stolen
use plutonium /hich emits a great !eal of ra!iation that coul! relati#ely easily be !etecte! by passi#e sensors at ports an! other points of transmission.
1he go#ernment of Pa(istan, /hich has been repeate!ly threatene! by alJSae!a, has a similar #ery strong
interest in controlling its nuclear /eapons an! materialJJan! scientists. %otes -tephen .ounger, former hea! of nuclear
/eapons research an! !e#elopment at +os Alamos an! !irector of the Defense DepartmentHs Defense 1hreat Re!uction Agency from 4553 to 4556,
Mregar!less of /hat is reporte! in the ne/s, all nuclear nations ta(e the security of their /eapons #ery seriouslyM
(455P, <KR see also 2amp 3<<=, 44R Milhollin 4554, 6PJ6O?. t is concei#able that stolen bombs, e#en if no longer #iable as
/eapons, /oul! be useful for the fissile material that coul! be har#este! from them. Ho/e#er, Christoph ,irA an!
)mmanuel )gger, t/o senior physicists in charge of nuclear issues at -/itAerlan!Hs -pieA +aboratory, point out that e#en if a /eapon is not
completely !estroye! /hen it is opene!, its fissile material yiel! /oul! not be a!e@uate for a primiti#e !esign,
an! therefore se#eral /eapons /oul! ha#e to be stolen an! then opene! successfully (455>, >54?. Moreo#er, those
/eapons use (or use!? plutonium, a substance that is not only problematic to transport, but far more !ifficult
an! !angerous to /or( /ith than is highly enriche! uranium.
No 'is#
Vero ris# of n&clear terrorism
Chapman 1= >:44, $-tephen Chapman is a columnist an! e!itorial /riter for the Chicago 1ribune, 7CHAPMA%9 %uclear terrorism unli(ely,8
http9::///.oaoa.com:articles:chapmanJOPP3<JnuclearJterrorism.html, AJ
)#er since -ept. 33, 4553, Americans ha#e ha! to li#e /ith the (no/le!ge that the ne*t time the terrorists stri(e, it
coul! be not /ith airplanes capable of (illing thousan!s but atomic bombs capable of (illing hun!re!s of
thousan!s. 1he prospect has create! a sense of profoun! #ulnerability. t has shape! our #ie/ of go#ernment policies aime! at
combating terrorism (filtere! through Jac( &auer?. t helpe! mobiliAe support for the ra@ /ar. ,hy are /e /orrie!U &omb !esigns can
be foun! on the nternet. 'issile material may be smuggle! out of Russia. ran, a longtime sponsor of terrorist groups, is trying to ac@uire nuclear
/eapons. A layperson may figure itQs only a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to pass. Har#ar!Qs Graham Allison, in his boo( 7%uclear
1errorism,8 conclu!es, 7Bn the current course, nuclear terrorism is ine#itable.8 &ut remember9 After -ept. 33, 4553, /e all thought more
attac(s /ere a certainty. .et alJSai!a an! its i!eological (in ha#e pro#e! &na%le to mo&nt a secon$ stri#e .
Gi#en their inability to !o something simple I say, shoot up a shopping mall or set off a truc( bomb I itQs
reasonable to as( /hether they ha#e a chance at something much more ambitious. 'ar from being plausible,
argue! Bhio -tate "ni#ersity professor John Mueller in a presentation at the "ni#ersity of Chicago, 7the li#elihoo$ that a terrorist
gro&p will come &p with an atomic %om% seems to %e +anishingl! small .8 1he e#ents re@uire! to
ma(e that happen comprise a multitu!e of Herculean tas(s. 'irst, a terrorist group has to get a bomb or fissile
material, perhaps from RussiaQs in#entory of !ecommissione! /arhea!s. f that /ere easy, one /oul! ha#e
alrea!y gone missing. &esi!es, those !e#ices are probably no longer a !anger, since /eapons that are not
maintaine! @uic(ly become /hat one e*pert calls 7ra!ioacti#e scrap metal.8 f terrorists /ere able to steal a
Pa(istani bomb, they /oul! still ha#e to !efeat the arming co!es an! other safeguar!s !esigne! to pre#ent
unauthoriAe! use. As for ran, no nuclear state has e#er gi#en a bomb to an ally I for reasons e#en the
ranians can grasp. -tealing some 355 poun!s of bomb fuel /oul! re@uire help from rogue in!i#i!uals insi!e
some go#ernment /ho are prepare! to ;eopar!iAe their o/n li#es. 1hen comes the tas( of buil!ing a bomb. tQs
not something you can gin up /ith spare parts an! po/er tools in your garage. t re@uires millions of !ollars, a
safe ha#en an! a!#ance! e@uipment I plus people /ith specialiAe! s(ills, lots of time an! a /illingness to !ie
for the cause. Assuming the ;iha!ists #ault o#er those Himalayas, they /oul! ha#e to !eli#er the /eapon onto
American soil. -ure, !rug smugglers bring in contraban! all the time I but see(ing their help /oul! confront the
plotters /ith possible e*posure or e*tortion. 1his, li(e e#ery other step in the entire process, means e*pan!ing
the circle of people /ho (no/ /hatQs going on, multiplying the chance someone /ill blab, bac( out or scre/ up.
1hat has heartening implications. f alJSai!a embar(s on the pro;ect, it has only a minuscule chance of seeing
it bear fruit. Gi#en the formi!able o!!s, it pro%a%l! won-t %other . %one of this means /e shoul! stop trying to minimiAe
the ris( by securing nuclear stoc(piles, monitoring terrorist communications an! impro#ing port screening. &ut it offers goo! reason to thin(
that in this /ar, it appears, the worst e+ent&alit! is one that will ne+er happen .
It-s e2tremel! &nli#el!
M&eller @ 3:3, $John Mueller9 Department of Political -cience, Bhio -tate "ni#ersity, 71H) A1BMC 1)RRBR-19 A--)--%G 1H)
+2)+HBBD,8 http9::polisci.osu.e!u:faculty:;mueller:AP-ACHGB.PD', AJ
A terrorist atomic bomb is commonly hel! to be the single most serious threat to the national security of the "nite! -tates. Assesse! in appropriate
conte*t, that coul! actually be seen to be a rather cheering conclusion because the li(elihoo! that a terrorist group /ill come up /ith an atomic bomb
seems to be #anishingly small. Moreo#er, the !egree to /hich alJSae!aJJthe chief !emon group an! one of the fe/
terrorist groups to see #alue in stri(ing the "nite! -tatesJJhas sought, or is capable of, obtaining such a /eapon
seems to ha#e been s&%stantiall! e2aggerate$ . f there has been a Mfailure of imagination,M perhaps it has been in the inability or
un/illingness to consi!er the !ifficulties confronting the atomic terrorist. Terrorist gro&ps seem to ha+e e2hi%ite$ onl!
limite$ $esire an$ e+en less progress in going atomic . 1his may be because, after brief e*ploration, the!
ha+e $isco+ere$ that the tremen$o&s effort re@uire! is scarcely li(ely to be successful . ,arnings about the
possibility that small groups coul! fabricate nuclear /eapons ha#e been repeate!ly uttere! at least since 3<6= /hen AJbomb ma(er J. Robert
Bppenheimer agree! that Mthree or four menM coul! smuggle atomic bomb units into %e/ .or( an! Mblo/ up the /hole cityM (Allison 4556, 356?, a
massi#e an! absur! e*aggeration of the capacity of atomic bombs of the time. -uch assertions proliferate! after the 3<>5s
/hen the Msuitcase bombM appeare! to become a practical possibility. An! it has no/ been o#er three !eca!es since terrorism specialist &rian Jen(ins
publishe! his /arnings about ho/ the M/i!esprea! !istribution of increasingly sophisticate! an! increasingly po/erful manJportable /eapons /ill
greatly a!! to the terroristHs arsenalM an! about ho/ Mthe /orl!Hs increasing !epen!ence on nuclear po/er may pro#i!e terrorists /ith /eapons of mass
!estructionM (3<P>, KK?. Br since John McPhee ominously reporte! that Mto many people /ho ha#e participate! in the a!#ancement of the nuclear age, it
seem not ;ust possible but more an! more apparent that nuclear e*plosions /ill again ta(e place in citiesM (3<P6, K?. ,e continue to /ait. t is
essential to note, ho/e#er, that ma#ing a %om% is an e2traor$inaril! $iffic&lt tas#. 1hus, a set of counterterrorism an!
nuclear e*perts inter#ie/e! in 4556 by Dafna +inAer for the ,ashington Post pointe! to the Menormo&s technical an$ logistical
o%stacles confronting /oul!Jbe nuclear terrorists, an! to the fact that neither alJSae!a nor any other group
has come close to !emonstrating the means to o#ercome them.M Allison nonetheless opines that a !e!icate! terrorist group, alJ
Sae!a in particular, coul! get aroun! all the problems in time an! e#entually steal, pro!uce, or procure a Mcru!eM bomb or !e#ice, one that he ho/e#er
ac(no/le!ges /oul! be Mlarge, cumbersome, unsafe, unreliable, unpre!ictable, an! inefficientM (4556, <PR see also &unn an! ,ier 455=, 3K<R Pluta an!
_immerman 455=, =3?. n his recent boo(, Atomic &aAaar9 1he Rise of the %uclear Poor, ,illiam +ange/iesche spen!s a great !eal of time an! effort
assessing the process by means of /hich a terrorist group coul! come up /ith a bomb. "nli(e Allison, he conclu!es that it Mremains #ery,
#ery unli(ely. tHs a possibility, but unli(ely.M Also9 1he best information is that no one has gotten any/here near this. mean, if you loo(
carefully an! practically at this process, you see that it is an enormous un!erta(ing full of ris(s for the /oul!Jbe terrorists. An! so far there is no
public case, at least (no/n, of any appreciable amount of /eaponsJgra!e H)" Dhighly enriche! uraniumE
!isappearing. An! thatHs the first step. f you !onHt ha#e that, you !onHt ha#e anything. t is also /orth noting that, although nuclear
/eapons ha#e been aroun! no/ for /ell o#er half a century, no state has e#er gi#en another stateJJe#en a close
ally, much less a terrorist groupJJa nuclear /eapon (or chemical, biological, or ra!iological one either, for that matter? that the
recipient coul! use in!epen!ently. 'or e*ample, !uring the Col! ,ar, %orth 2orea trie! to ac@uire nuclear /eapons from its close ally,
China, an! /as firmly refuse! (Bber!orfer 455>R see also Pillar 455K, **i?. 1here coul! be some !anger from pri#ate (or semiJpri#ate? profiteers, li(e the
net/or( establishe! by Pa(istani scientist A. S. 2han. Ho/e#er, its acti#ities /ere rather easily penetrate! by intelligence agencies (the CA, it is #ery
li(ely, ha! agents /ithin the net/or(?, an! the operation /as abruptly close! !o/n /hen it seeme! to be the right time (+ange/iesche 455P, 3=<JP4?.
-ince they are unli(ely to be able to buy or steal a useable bomb an! since they are further unli(ely to ha#e one
han!e! off to them by an establishe! nuclear state, terrorists /oul! nee! to manufacture the !e#ice
themsel#es. &ecause of the !angers an! !ifficulties of transporting an! /or(ing /ith plutonium, a !e!icate!
terrorist group, it is generally agree!, /oul! choose to try to use highly enriche! uranium (2amp 3<<=, KKR 2eller 4554R
Milhollin 4554, 6=J6PR Rees 455K, 66J6>R +inAer 4556R Allison 4556, <=J<PR Gol!stein 4556, 3K3JK4R Cameron 4556, O6R ,irA an! )gger 455>, >55R
&unn an! ,ier 455=, 3K>R +ange/iesche 455P, 43J4K?.O 1he goal /oul! be to get as much of this stuff as necessary (more than 355 poun!s is re@uire! to
reach critical mass? an! then fashion it into an e*plosi#e.< Most li(ely this /oul! not be a bomb that can be !roppe! or hurle!,
but rather an Mimpro#ise! nuclear !e#iceM (%D? that /oul! be set off at the target by a suici!al !etonation cre/. P
1he process is a !aunting one, an! it re@uires that a /hole casca!e of e#ents clic( perfectly an! in se@uence.
1his is a (ey issue. 1hose, li(e Allison, /ho /arn about the li(elihoo! of a terrorist bomb, argue that a terrorist group coul!, if often /ith great
!ifficulty, surmount each obstacleJJthat !oing so in each case is Mnot impossible.M &ut it is #ital to point out that /hile it may be Mnot impossibleM to
surmount each in!i#i!ual step, the li(elihoo! that a group coul! surmount a series of them rather @uic(ly !oes approach impossibility. +et us assess the
problem. Procuring fissile material. 1o begin /ith, stateless groups are simply incapa%le of man&fact&ring the
re.&ire$ fissile material for a bomb since the process re@uires an enormous effort on an in!ustrial scale
(Milhollin 4554, 6>J6=R Allison 4556R Cameron 4556, OKR &unn an! ,ier 455=, 3K=JKPR &unn an! ,ier 455=, 3K=JKPR +ange/iesche 455P, 45R Perry et
al. 455P?. Moreo#er, they are unli(ely to be supplie! /ith the material by a state for the same reasons a state is
unli(ely to gi#e them a /or(able bomb. 1hus, they /oul! nee! to steal or illicitly purchase this crucial material.
Although there is legitimate concern that some material, particularly in Russia, may be some/hat ina!e@uately
secure! (though things ha#e impro#e! consi!erably?, it is un!er loc( an! (ey, an! e#en sleepy, !run(en guar!s, notes
+ange/iesche, /ill react /ith hostility (an! noise? to a rai!ing party. 1hie#es also nee! to (no/ e*actly /hat they /ant an! /here it is, an! this
presumably means trusting bribe!, but not necessarily !epen!able, insi!ers. An! to e#en begin to pull off such a heist, they nee! to
!e#elop a highly nuance! Msense for streetsM in foreign lan!s fille! /ith people /ho are often congenitally
suspicious of strangers (455P, KKJ6O?. Corruption in some areas may pro#i!e an opportunity to buy the rele#ant
material, but purchasers of illicit goo!s an! ser#ices /oul! ha#e to pay off a host of gree!y confe!erates, any one
of /hom coul! turn on them or, either out of guile or incompetence, furnish them /ith stuff that is useless. f terrorists /ere someho/
successful at obtaining a critical mass of rele#ant material, they /oul! then ha#e to transport it hun!re!s of
miles out of the country o#er unfamiliar terrain an! probably /hile being pursue! by security forces (+ange/iesche
455P, 6OJ>5?. Although he remains concerne! that a terrorist group coul! buy or steal a nuclear !e#ice or be gi#en one by an establishe! nuclear country
(455P, <K?, .ounger is @uic( to enumerate the !ifficulties the group /oul! confront /hen trying to fabricate one on their o/n. He stresses that
uranium is Me*ceptionally !ifficult to machineM /hile Mplutonium is one of the most comple* metals e#er
!isco#ere!, a material /hose basic properties are sensiti#e to e*actly ho/ it is processe!. &oth nee! special machining technology that has e#ol#e!
through a process of trial an! error.M )#en if there is some !esire for the bomb by terrorists (something assesse! more fully belo/?,
fulfillment of that !esire is ob#iously another matter. )#en alarmists &unn an! ,ier conten! that the atomic terroristsH tas( M/oul!
clearly be among the most !ifficult types of attac( to carry outM or Mone of the most !ifficult missions a terrorist group coul! hope to tryM (455=, 3KKJK6,
36P?. &ut, stresses George 1enet, a terrorist atomic bomb is MpossibleM or Mnot beyon! the realm of possibilityM (1enet an! Harlo/ 455P, 4==, 4P<?.
SC Sol+es
S.&o sol+es???$efense capa%ilities
Daniel 1= 4:3=, $+isa Daniel9 American 'orces Press -er#ice, Defense %e/s, 7".-. 'aces &roa! -pectrum of 1hreats, ntel +ea!ers -ay,8
http9::///.!efense.go#:ne/s:ne/sarticle.asp*Ui!Y=P4K3, AJ
ntelligence sho/s the ne*t three years /ill be a critical transition time in counterterrorism, as groups li(e alJ
Sai!a !iminish in importance an! terrorist groups become more !ecentraliAe!, Clapper sai!. ".-.
counterterrorism has cause! alJSai!a to lose so many top lieutenants since 455O 7that a ne/ group of lea!ers, e#en
if they coul! be foun!, /oul! ha#e !ifficulty integrating into the organiAation an! compensating for mounting losses,8
the !irector sai!. AlJSai!aQs regional affiliates in ra@, the Arabian peninsula an! %orth Africa are e*pecte! to 7surpass the remnants of core alJSai!a in
Pa(istan,8 he sai!. ,ith continue!, robust counterterrorism efforts an! cooperation from international partners, Clapper
sai!, 7there is a betterJthanJe#en chance that !ecentraliAation /ill lea! to fragmentation of the mo#ement /ithin
a fe/ years,8 although he a!!e! that terrorist groups /ill continue to be a !angerous transnational force.
Intense co&nterterrorism press&re has ma$e it &nli#el! that a terrorist gro&p wo&l$ la&nch a
chemical %iological ra$iological or n&clear mass attac# against the " nite! -tates in the ne*t year, Clapper sai!,
but groups such as alJSai!a in the Arabian Peninsula continue to sho/ interest in such an attac(. Most terrorist groups, ho/e#er, remain
locally focuse!, Clapper sai!, noting that alJSai!a in ra@ remains focuse! on o#erthro/ing the -hiiaJle! go#ernment in &agh!a! in fa#or of a
-unniJle! go#ernment. n Africa, the alJSai!a in the slamic Maghreb an! alJ-habaab organiAations struggle /ith
internal !i#isions an! outsi!e support, an! ha#e been !iminishe! by go#ernment an! military pressure in -omalia, 2enya an! )thiopia, he
sai!. -till, intelligence sho/s no nation states ha+e pro+i$e$ weapons of mass $estr&ction assistance
to terrorist gro&ps , an! no nonstate actors are targeting ,MD sites in countries /ith unrest , the !irector sai!. &ut
that coul! change as go#ernments become more unstable, he a!!e!.
T'ADE
No Escalation
Tra$e conflicts won-t escalate
NIE UPD (Joseph, Dean of the 2enne!y -chool of Go#ernment 0 Har#ar! "ni#ersity, ,ashington Suarterly, ,inter?
1he lo/ li(elihoo! of !irect great po/er clashes !oes not mean that there /ill be no tensions bet/een them. Disagreements
are li(ely to continue o#er regional conflicts, li(e those that ha#e arisen o#er ho/ to !eal /ith the conflict in the former .ugosla#ia. )fforts to stop the
sprea! of /eapons of mass !estruction an! means of their !eli#ery are another source of friction, as is the case o#er Russian an! Chinese nuclear
cooperation /ith ran, /hich the "nite! -tates stea!fastly opposes. 1he sharing of bur!ens an! responsibilities for maintaining international security
an! protecting the natural en#ironment are a further sub;ect of !ebate among the great po/ers. 'urthermore, in contrast to the #ie/s of classical
+iberals, increase! tra!e an! economic inter!epen!ence can increase as /ell as !ecrease conflict an! competition
among tra!ing partners. 1he main point, ho/e#er, is that such !isagreements are #ery unli(ely to escalate to
military conflicts.
No 4ar
Tra$e $oes not sol+e warGthere-s no correlation %etween tra$e an$ peace
MA'TIN et al U@ (Phillipe, "ni#ersity of Paris 3 PantheonI-orbonne, Paris -chool of )conomics, an! Centre for )conomic Policy ResearchR
1hierry MA.)R, "ni#ersity of Paris 3 PantheonI-orbonne, Paris -chool of )conomics, C)P, an! Centre for )conomic Policy Research, Mathias
1HB)%G, "ni#ersity of Gene#a an! Paris -chool of )conomics, 1he Re#ie/ of )conomic -tu!ies P>?
Does globaliAation pacify international relationsU 1he 7liberal8 #ie/ in political science argues that increasing tra!e flo/s an! the
sprea! of free mar(ets an! !emocracy shoul! limit the incenti#e to use military force in interstate relations. 1his #ision, /hich can partly be trace! bac(
to 2antQs )ssay on Perpetual Peace (3P<>?, has been #ery influential9 1he main ob;ecti#e of the )uropean tra!e integration process /as to pre#ent the
(illing an! !estruction of the t/o ,orl! ,ars from e#er happening again.3 'igure 3 suggests4 ho/e#er, that !uring the 3OP504553 perio!,
the correlation bet/een tra!e openness an! military conflicts is not a clear cut one. 1he first era of globaliAation,
at the en! of the 3<th century, /as a perio! of rising tra!e openness an! multiple military conflicts, culminating /ith
,orl! ,ar . 1hen, the inter/ar perio! /as characteriAe! by a simultaneous collapse of /orl! tra!e an!
conflicts. After ,orl! ,ar , /orl! tra!e increase! rapi!ly, /hile the number of conflicts !ecrease! (although the ris( of a
global conflict /as ob#iously high?. 1here is no clear e#i!ence that the 3<<5s, !uring /hich tra!e flo/s
increase! !ramatically, /as a perio! of lo/er pre#alence of military conflicts, e#en ta(ing into account the increase in the number
of so#ereign states.
No tra$e war
Cingfen 1= >:K5, $Ding Singfen (China Daily?, 7'rictions to Hheat upH o#er tra!e,8 http9::usa.china!aily.com.cn:business:4534J
5>:K5:contentF3>63O6P<.htm, AJ
1ra!e frictions bet/een China an! the "nite! -tates /ill probably become more heate! in the months ahea!, but no
tra$e war will %rea# o&t %etween the two %iggest economies in the /orl! , Pascal +amy, !irectorJgeneral of the
,orl! 1ra!e BrganiAation sai! on 1ues!ay. MAs Chinese tra!e /ith the rest of the /orl! gro/s, there is a normal statistical
proportion of tra!e frictions, an! /e belie#e that the frictions can be han!le! peacefully,M sai! +amy. M&ut nothing
li#e a tra$e war.M +amy ma!e the remar(s in an inter#ie/ con!ucte! at the &ei;ing 4534 Roun! 1able on ,1B Accession &est Practices for the
least !e#elope! countries, /hich /as hel! in the capital city. During the forum, Chen Deming, minister of commerce, sai! China is /illing to
help the least !e#elope! countries in the /orl! ;oin the ,1B. Ha#ing them in the organiAation /ill be goo! for
the /orl! economy an! global tra!e, as /ell as for China. China, together /ith other countries in the ,1B, is
calling for a simplification of the proce!ures countries must go through to ;oin the tra!e organiAation. Agreements
meant to bring about that goal are e*pecte! to be signe! by July, Chen sai!. +ast /ee(, the Ministry of Commerce /rote on its /ebsite about policies
use! to support /in!, solar an! other sorts of rene/able energy pro;ects in fi#e "- states, inclu!ing ,ashington, %e/ Jersey, Massachusetts, Bhio an!
California, saying they #iolate ,1B policies an! tra!e treaties. China also complaine! to the ,1B about the "-Q imposition of antiJsubsi!y !uties on
TP.4< billion /orth of Chinese goo!s from 44 !ifferent categories that /ere importe! to the "- last year. 1he announcements came on the heels of the
"- Commerce DepartmentHs preliminary !ecision to place antiJ!umping tariffs of up to 4>5 percent on imports of Chinese solar cells. Analysts at home
an! abroa! e*presse! /orries that ChinaHs response to that action /ill pro#o(e a tra!e /ar bet/een the t/o nations. +amy, though, sai! a
member of the ,1B has the right to challenge other members if it thin(s they ha#e #iolate! tra!e rules.
M-ometimes, China challenges the "-, )", /ith antiJ!umping or counter#ailing !uties, an! sometimes it is
other /ay roun!,M he sai!. M1here are tra!e frictions, tra!e !isputes, but there are no tra!e /ars.M As the "- presi!ential
election !ra/s near, the "- may ta(e further actions against China an! its tra!e policies in the hope of @uieting
critics /ho complain about their countryQs tra!e !eficit /ith China an! high unemployment rate, e*perts sai!.
Bbama has announce! plans to establish a transJagency tra!e enforcement unit that /ill be charge! /ith
in#estigating the policies an! practices of the countryQs most important tra!e partners. n %o#ember, China began
in#estigating /hether the "- /as improperly using subsi!ies to lo/er the price of "- pro!ucts. 1hat scrutiny came a month after the se#en "- solar
manufacturers file! a complaint /ith the "- nternational 1ra!e Commission an! the Department of Commerce. 1he Ministry of Commerce sai! the "-
has use! subsi!ies in /ays that are Minconsistent /ith the ,1B rules an! rulings in many regar!sM. MTra$e frictions are a normal
statistical proportion +ol&me of tra$e,M +amy sai!. MAs tra!e gro/s, the number of tra!e frictions gro/s.M 1he
Commerce Department is sche!ule! to ma(e a final !etermination on solar tariffs in early Bctober. 1he "- agency also announce! it /oul! in#estigate
Chinese e*ports of /in! turbines, saying ma(ers of that e@uipment ha#e recei#e! unfair go#ernment subsi!ies. t plans to ma(e an announcement on
,e!nes!ay about the !uties it /ill impose on those pro!ucts. Along /ith the )" an! Japan, the "- file! a complaint in March /ith the ,1B to
challenge ChinaQs policies go#erning e*ports of rareJearth minerals. M,e are concerne! that !uring the financial crisis, protectionism is gro/ing,M +amy
sai!. M1hatHs the reality.M M&ut on the /hole, there are not $ramatic s&rges of protectionist meas&res , although there are
signs that remain /orrying. tHs li(e going to a !octor from time to time. ,e !o chec(ups, an! /e tell the patients, H&e carefulH.M
Tra$e wars are &nli#el!???no incenti+e
Cingfen P 33:36, $Ding Singfen (China Daily?, 7ChinaJ"- tra!e /ar unli(ely,8 http9::///.china!aily.com.cn:china:obama#isitchina:455<J
33:36:contentFO<P3=4P.htm, AJ
Although tra!e friction bet/een China an! the "nite! -tates /ill li(ely rise in the months ahea! as the economic reco#ery
of the "- remains in limbo, there is little possi%ilit! that the t/o countries /ill become embroile! in a fullJ
blo/n tra!e /ar, analysts sai!. Ho/e#er few %elie+e a tra$e war of an! #in$ will %rea# o&t . M1here is neither
sign nor reason that China an! the "- /ill turn the conflicts into a /ar. tHs not goo! for either party,M He sai!. t is
estimate! that tra!e reme!y cases, as of late last year, only account for > percent of the ChinaJ"- tra!e by #olume.
M1hey are a minimal part of bilateral tra!e an! happene! in a special perio!. Cases /ill !ecrease /hen the "-
economy turns goo!,M he sai!. Most obser#ers belie#e the "- /ill not launch a!!itional tra!e reme!y cases for fear of
antagoniAing China. Bbama sai! recently that the *S sees China as a +ital partner an$ competitor , but
the t/o countries must a!!ress economic imbalances or ris( enormous strains on their relationship. An! "-
-ecretary of Commerce Gary +oc(e also sai! !uring the ChinaJ"- Joint Commission on Commerce an! 1ra!e hel! in HangAhou in late Bctober that both
countries shoul! a#oi! tra!e protectionist measures against each other. &oth /oul! be losers if tra!e conflicts escalate into a tra!e
/ar. )*perts suggeste! that China acti+el! resort to the 4T( r&les for protecting in$&stries from
%eing h&rt by the "- an! launch tra!e reme!y in#estigations of its o/n against the "- . After the e*tra tire !uties /ere
enacte!, China announce! it /oul! launch in#estigations into t/o categories of imports from the "- J of broile! chic(en an! certain types of
automobiles.
*S an$ China won-t engage in a tra$e war
/remmer P <:3=, $an &remmer is presi!ent of )urasia Group an! author of 1he )n! of the 'ree Mar(et9 ,ho ,ins the ,ar &et/een -tates an!
CorporationsU, 7DonHt e*pect a ".-.JChina tra!e /ar,8 http9::eurasia.foreignpolicy.com:category:topic:tra!e, AJ
After the Bbama a!ministration slappe! K> percent tariffs on Chinese tires o#er the /ee(en!, China respon!e! /ith hyperJcharge! rhetoric an! its o/n
in#estigation into ".-. chic(en an! auto parts e*ports. ,hen the ne/s bro(e, the /orl! /o(e up to a scary possibility9 ,hat if these actions /ere the
opening shots that /oul! trigger a tra!e /arU Despite some serio&s me$ia h!pe , /e !onHt thin( a tra!e /ar is li(ely . &ut
/e also !onHt thin( itHs outsi!e the realm of possibility. f such a scenario occurre!, it /oul! ha#e serious implications for global reco#ery, financing the
".-. !ebt, an! e#en the stability of the Chinese regime. 1herefore, itHs clearly /orth consi!ering ho/ this situation coul! occur,
/hile also e*amining /hy itHs unli(ely that e#ents /ill e#ol#e in that !irection. tHs reasonable, then, that politicians in
&ei;ing are /orrie! that the !ecision on tires /ill lea! to China being single! out as the target of future tra!e actions. ,hatHs more, the simmering
nationalism of the Chinese public forces the lea!ership to be more aggressi#e in its responses. A poll on a stateJrun ne/s site foun! that <5 percent of
Chinese citiAens belie#e that China can go toeJtoJtoe /ith the "nite! -tates in a tra!e /ar. 1hus, e#ery time -ection 643 is use!, it /ill engen!er fiery
retaliation from the Chinese. f the !oor the a!ministration has crac(e! open is thro/n fully a;ar, tra!e tension coul! theoretically spill o#er into ,1BJ
incompliant responses or responses that ha#e nothing to !o /ith tra!e. 1hus, there is a chance JJ though not a li(elihoo! JJ that section 643 coul! lea! to
a tra!e /ar if the "nite! -tates repeate!ly uses it an! China respon!s through escalation. 1he a!ministrationHs recent !emonstration that it is /illing to
apply section 643 an! ChinaHs aggressi#e reaction mo#e! the "-JChina relationship one step closer to that scenario. &ut it /as a small step in a robust
tra!ing relationship /ith t/o si!es that un!erstan! /hatHs at sta(e. 1op Chinese lea!ers ha#e little interest in engaging in a tra!e
/ar /ith the "nite! -tates because they (no/ it /oul! hurt their hea#ily e*portJ!epen!ent economy. ,ashington
is trying har! to ma(e China a /illing partner on a host of global issues, an! China has been recepti#e to the
i!ea if only for the recognition of its increase! international stature. During the first -trategic an! )conomic Dialogue in July,
the two co&ntries ple$ge$ to mo+e towar$ a more mat&re relationship . n ,ashington, Bbama JJ
!espite ho/ he appeare! on the campaign trail JJ remains committe! to open mar(ets an! the national
economic benefits the "nite! -tates gets from tra!e. ,hile a potential tra!e /ar is scary stuff, there is little
reason to %elie+e it is forthcoming.
No tra$e war an$ no impact
China Anal!tics 15 35:34, 7Potentially Misgui!e! Assertions about Currency an! 1ra!e ,ars,8
http9::chinanalytics./or!press.com:4535:35:34:potentiallyJmisgui!e!JassertionsJaboutJcurrencyJan!Jtra!eJ/ars:, AJ
,hen thin(ing of a potential /orst case scenario /here it comes to a true currency or tra!e /ar bet/een China an! the "- it is notable that the
*S s&r+i+e$ the Mreat Depression an$ that China has s&r+i+e$ economic calamities $&ring
peacetime that were far more $estr&cti+e than the $amage wro&ght %! acts of territorial
aggression against the mainlan$. 1he 7neoJcons8 /ho helpe! to lea! the "- into its some/hat precarious economic con!ition, ga#e
us the notion of the 7full spectrum of !ominance8, a notion similar to many in the Chinese classics on /arfare. A common theme in all of the
relate! /or(s seems to be that total #ictory can be achie#e! if one /arring party is /illing to accept staggering
costs. 1he benefits of the past !eca!e of economic globaliAation rest on an unbalance!, if not precarious,
foun!ation9 they came about only because some rich countries /ere /illing to !isJsa#e an! many poor ones
/ere /illing to sa#e at a high rate of national income. Many tal( about the ris( of 7un!oing8 the global gains
from the past !eca!e of incremental tra!e liberaliAation, but such a statement rests on the ina!e@uate premise
that the proliferation of tra!e agreements an! institutions alone e*plain all of the contemporary gains from
tra!e. A general re!uction to tra!e barriers unleashe! the positi#e forces of competition on the supply si!e. Bn
the !eman! si!e of the e@uation, the monetary, fiscal an! consumer tren!s in ma;or B)CD mar(ets, most notably the "-, ha#e har!ly been normal
!uring the past !eca!e9 monetary policy an! cre!it gro/th /as o#erly accommo!ati#e, the min!set 7of !eficits !onQt matter8 in the "- an! the
unenforceability of )" fiscal rules ele#ate! !ebt le#els, an! househol!s o#erJrelie! on the mirage of bloate! home e@uity #alues. Manufacturing nations
no/ ha#e e*cess capacity an! public an! pri#ate balance sheets in consumer nations are o#ere*ten!e!. 1he term [globaliAationQ has a moral
ring to it, but in practice the gro/th in tra!e an! in#estment flo/s for the past !eca!e has been economic
o#ershooting of some/hat unprece!ente! proportions. 1he un!erlying politics are @uic(ly catching up, an! coul! easily o#ershoot as
/ell. Presently, most countries all /ant to e*port more at a time /hen a!#ance! economies are going to suffer from a 7chronic shortage of !eman!8.
Current economic arrangements are thus probably not tenable, nor are the un!erlying politics. 1he "-JChina economic relationship is a
goo! case in point, an! is the largest potential 7fault line8 in the current global tra!ing system, to borro/ Professor
Ra;anQs term. 1he reasoning that economic /arfare is unli(ely simply because it /oul! !amage either the Chinese
or "- economies fun!amentally o#erloo(s political ob;ecti#es /hich are more @ualitati#e than @uantitati#e.
A!;ustments to sa#ings an! in#estment imbalances in either or both China an! the "- coul! substantially re!uce bilateral economic imbalances, an! in
relati#e terms this coul! be achie#e! more easily than rebalancing the political relationship. ChinaQs recent stance on territorial !isputes an! those
relate! to the control of shipping lanes in the -outh China -ea ma(e clear the un!erstan!ing amongst the political lea!ership that un!er the current
circumstances if it !oes not le#erage its relati#e economic strength to re!efine its geopolitical status it /oul! be a misse! opportunity of historical
proportions. 4aging a tra$e war wo&l$ onl! ma#es sense if it were $one for political rather than
economic o%8ecti+es. 'or e*ample, the ;obless nature of the current "- economic reco#ery coul! ma(e
encouraging import substitution through protectionist measures politically !esirable. 1he "- probably faces
less !o/nsi!e from a tra!e /ar scenario, an! ma(es more aggressi#e postures from the "- more li(ely for the
reason. 'or China, the political benefits of re!efining important bilateral relationships or aggressi#ely promoting
the mainlan!Qs global stature coul! more than mitigate the social ris(s pose! by temporary employment shoc(s
resulting from escalating tra!e frictions. -upply e#entually creates its o/n !eman!, an! the combination of conflict an! nationalism coul!
be a /elcome accelerant to this process.
Tra$e $oesn-t sol+e war China an$ Taiwan pro+e
Foreign Polic! 15 (Dan /l&menthal commissioner an$ former +ice chairman of the *.S.?China
Economic an$ Sec&rit! 'e+iew Commission A4h! the China?Taiwan tra$e agreement $oesn-t
sol+e e+er!thingB
httpHEEsha$ow.foreignpolic!.comEpostsE=515E5DE=PEwh!StheSchinaStaiwanStr
a$eSagreementS$oesnStSsol+eSe+er!thing" EE CM
1he signing by 1ai/an an! China of the )conomic Cooperation 'rame/or( Agreement is a /elcome
!e#elopment. 1he agreement cuts tariffs on >K< 1ai/anese pro!ucts boun! for China an! 4=P Chinese pro!ucts e*porte! to 1ai/an. 1he cuts on the
1ai/an items are #alue! at T3K.O6 billion an! those from China T4.O= billion. )conomically, 1ai/an, the PRC, an! the "nite! -tates /ill all benefit.
Politically, the agreement means a re!uction in tension across the -trait, an! it pro#i!es incenti#es for Chinese restraint (it is easy to forget that
inter!epen!ence /or(s both /ays JJ 1ai/an may rely on China for final assembly an! lo/Jen! manufacturing, but China is !epen!ent upon 1ai/anHs
in#estment an! managerial (no/Jho/?. Ho/e#er, ,ashington shoul! not be lulle! into complacency JJ the cross -trait
problem has not !isappeare!. ,ith o#er a thousan! missiles pointe! at it, 1ai/an faces Chinese coercion e#ery
!ay9 All of 1aipeiHs negotiations, inclu!ing those o#er the )C'A, are con!ucte! /ith the e@ui#alent of a gun
pointe! at its hea!. ,e shoul! #ie/ the )C'A as only the first step in a series of measures that /ill strengthen
1ai/an, stabiliAe the -trait, an! liberaliAe tra!e in Asia.
Free tra$e $oesn-t sol+e war , sectional interests will still moti+ates elites to $eclare war
Mol$stone 5L (P. R. Gol!stone, PhD can!i!ate in the Department of Political -cience an! a member of the
-ecurity -tu!ies Program at the Massachusetts nstitute of 1echnology. He is a nonJresi!ent research fello/ at
the Center for Peace an! -ecurity -tu!ies, Georgeto/n "ni#ersity, 33:46:5P, 7Does GlobaliAation &ring ,ar or
PeaceU8 http9::///.globalpolicy.org:component:content:article:445:6P4<P.html?
Many hope tra!e /ill constrain or perhaps pacify a rising China, resurgent Russia, an! proliferationJmin!e! ran, as it /ell may. %onetheless, any
pru!ent analysis must incorporate ca#eats !ra/n from statesH particular political economy of security policy. n
nonJ!emocratic states, ho/e#er important global mar(ets may be to the economy in aggregate, elites /ill be most sensiti#e to sectoral
interests of their specific po/er base. 1his mismatch can cause systematic !istortions in their ability to
interpret other statesH strategic signals correctly /hen genuine conflicts of interest emerge /ith a nation more
!omestically constraine!. +ea!ership elites !ra/n from !omesticJoriente!, uncompetiti#e, or nonJtra!able constituencies /ill ten! to !iscount
!eterrent signals sent by tra!ing partners /hose o/n !omestic institutions fa#or those commerceJoriente! interests, belie#ing such interests ma(e
partners less li(ely to fulfill their threats. 'or e*ample, one reason the &JP go#ernment of n!ia !eci!e! to achie#e an open nuclear /eapons capability
/as that its smallJbusiness, !omesticJoriente! heart constituency /as both less #ulnerable to tra!e sanctions an! less /illing to belie#e that the "-
/oul! either impose or long sustain such sanctions, gi#en its o/n increase! economic interests in n!ia. -ometimes, !eterrent signals may not
be sent at all, since one nationHs go#erning coalition may inclu!e commerceJ!epen!ent groups /hose interests
pre#ent state lea!ers from actually un!erta(ing necessary balancing responses or issuing potent signals of
resol#e in the first placeR the result can be fatally mu!!le! strategy an! e#en /ar JJ as /itness the series of /ea(
attempts before the 'irst ,orl! ,ar by financeJ!ominate! &ritain to !eter Mron an! RyeMJ!ominate!
Germany.
Impact Ine+ita%le
Economic nationalism is ine+ita%le , ma#es economic cooperation impossi%le
M()DST(NE UL J PhD can!i!ate in the Department of Political -cience an! a member of the -ecurity -tu!ies Program at the Massachusetts
nstitute of 1echnology. He is a nonJresi!ent research fello/ at the Center for Peace an! -ecurity -tu!ies, Georgeto/n "ni#ersity (P.R.,8Does
GlobaliAation &ring ,ar or PeaceU8. -eptember 4>. http9::///.alternet.org:au!its:=4O6O:UpageYentire?
American policyma(ers shoul! be/are claims of globaliAationHs a*iomatic pacifying effects. 1ra!e creates #este! interests in peace, but
these interests affect policy only to the e*tent they /iel! political clout. n many of the states /hose beha#ior
/e most /ish to alter, such sectors JJ internationalist, e*portJoriente!, reliant on global mar(ets JJ lac( a pri#ilege! place at the
political table. "ntil an! unless these groups gain a greater #oice /ithin their o/n political system, attempts to rely on the presume!
constraining effects of global tra!e carry substantially greater ris( than commonly thought. A fe/ e*amples tell much. SuasiJ!emocratic Russia
is a state /hose principal e*posure to global mar(ets lies in oil, a commo!ity /hose consi!erable strategic coerci#e po/er the Putin regime freely
in#o(es. 1he oil sector has effecti#ely merge! /ith the state, ma(ing RussiaHs !eepening ties to the global
economy a /oul!Jbe /eapon rather than an a#enue of restraint. Russian economic liberaliAation /ithout political
liberaliAation is unli(ely to pay the strong cooperati#e !i#i!en!s many e*pect. China /ill pro#e perhaps the ultimate test of the Pa* Mercatoria.
1he increasing international Chinese presence in the oil an! ra/ materials e*traction sectors /oul! seem to
bo!e ill, gi#en such sectorsH consistent history else/here of urging state use of threats an! force to secure these
interests. Much /ill come !o/n to the relati#e political influence of e*portJoriente! sectors hea#ily reliant on foreign !irect in#estment an! easy
access to the #ast ,estern mar(et #ersus the political po/er of their sectoral opposites9 uncompetiti#e stateJo/ne! enterprises, energy an! mineral
comple*es /ith important hol!ings in the global periphery, an! a Chinese military that increasingly has become a !e facto multiJsectoral economicJ
in!ustrial conglomerate. Actions to bolster the former groups at the e*pense of the latter /oul! be effort /ell spent. At home, as e#en a!#ance!
sectors feel the competiti#e pressures of globaliAation, public support for internationalism an! global engagement /ill face
se#ere challenges. As more sectors un!ergo structural transformation, the natural coalitional constituency for
committe! global acti#ist policy /ill ero!eR containing the gathering bac(lash /ill re@uire consi!erable lea!ership. 1ra!e can in!ee! be a
palliati#eR too often, ho/e#er, /e seem to thin( of economic inter!epen!ence as a panaceaR the !anger is that in
particular instances it may pro#e no more than a placebo.
4A'MINM
Alt Ca&se , China
Can-t sol+e warming witho&t China
Chen et al 15 Chen, Sian, Peri!as, Siu, Ho9 %atural Resources Defense Council, 'rie!mann9 +a/rence +i#ermore %ational +aboratory, +i, ,ei9
nstitute of Roc( an! -oil Mechanics, Chinese Aca!emy of -ciences, -ung, 'o/ler9 Clean Air 1as( 'orce, -eligsohn, +iu, 'orbes9 ,orl! Resources
nstitute, _hang9 China 1singhua "ni#ersity, _hao9 nstitute of )ngineering 1hermophysics, Chinese Aca!emy of -ciences (Jason Chen, Jing;ing Sian,
George Peri!as, .ueming Siu, &ruce Ho, Julio 'rie!mann, Xiaochun +i, %ing ,ei, -. Ming -ung, Mi(e 'o/ler, Deborah -eligsohn, .ue +iu, -arah
'orbes, Dong;ie _hang, +ifeng _hao, December 4535, 7!entifying %earJ1erm Bpportunities 'or Carbon Capture an! -e@uestration (CC-? in China,8
http9::!ocs.nr!c.org:international:files:intF35343553a.p!f?::DR. H
As !iscusse! at the beginning of this report, if China an$ the worl$ are to a+oi$ the worst conse.&ences of
climate change then China-s rapi$ growth in total car%on $io2i$e emissionsI though approaching
only the /orl!Qs a#erage le#el on a per capita basisIm&st %e c&rtaile$ an$ %egin to $ecrease within the ne2t two
$eca$es. This process m&st happen in parallel with $eep emissions re$&ctions %!
in$&striali;e$ co&ntries starting now in or$er to sa+e the worl$ from $angero&s climate
change. &ase! on /hat the /orl! currently (no/s an! is capable of achie#ing, CCS will li#el! %e a necessar! strateg!, in
concert /ith other measures, to reali;e criticall! nee$e$ emissions a%atement in China an$ other large
fossil f&el cons&ming co&ntries. &ecause CC- in#ol#es largescale systems engineering an! geologic e*pertise,
international colla%oration will %e in$ispensa%le for accelerating CCS $e+elopment an$
$eplo!ment in the co&ntries that nee$ the technolog!. 'or China, /hich still faces !aunting !e#elopment nee!s an!
has relati#ely limite! technological, financial an! regulatory capacities in some areas, international collaboration an! assistance are all the more
critical.
China is the largest emitter of C(=
Chen et al 15 Chen, Sian, Peri!as, Siu, Ho9 %atural Resources Defense Council, 'rie!mann9 +a/rence +i#ermore %ational +aboratory, +i, ,ei9
nstitute of Roc( an! -oil Mechanics, Chinese Aca!emy of -ciences, -ung, 'o/ler9 Clean Air 1as( 'orce, -eligsohn, +iu, 'orbes9 ,orl! Resources
nstitute, _hang9 China 1singhua "ni#ersity, _hao9 nstitute of )ngineering 1hermophysics, Chinese Aca!emy of -ciences (Jason Chen, Jing;ing Sian,
George Peri!as, .ueming Siu, &ruce Ho, Julio 'rie!mann, Xiaochun +i, %ing ,ei, -. Ming -ung, Mi(e 'o/ler, Deborah -eligsohn, .ue +iu, -arah
'orbes, Dong;ie _hang, +ifeng _hao, December 4535, 7!entifying %earJ1erm Bpportunities 'or Carbon Capture an! -e@uestration (CC-? in China,8
http9::!ocs.nr!c.org:international:files:intF35343553a.p!f?::DR. H
After three !eca!es of rapi! in!ustrialiAation fuele! by coal, China is no/ the /orl!Qs biggest emitter of carbon !io*i!e
(CB4?Ithe pollutant most responsible for global /arming.3 1his economic gro/th has lifte! hun!re!s of
millions of people out of po#erty, an! millions more coul! gain from further economic !e#elopment. .et
continue! reliance on coalJfire! po/er threatens to create a climate catastrophe .
China #e! to sol+ing emissions
Chen et al 15 Chen, Sian, Peri!as, Siu, Ho9 %atural Resources Defense Council, 'rie!mann9 +a/rence +i#ermore %ational +aboratory, +i, ,ei9
nstitute of Roc( an! -oil Mechanics, Chinese Aca!emy of -ciences, -ung, 'o/ler9 Clean Air 1as( 'orce, -eligsohn, +iu, 'orbes9 ,orl! Resources
nstitute, _hang9 China 1singhua "ni#ersity, _hao9 nstitute of )ngineering 1hermophysics, Chinese Aca!emy of -ciences (Jason Chen, Jing;ing Sian,
George Peri!as, .ueming Siu, &ruce Ho, Julio 'rie!mann, Xiaochun +i, %ing ,ei, -. Ming -ung, Mi(e 'o/ler, Deborah -eligsohn, .ue +iu, -arah
'orbes, Dong;ie _hang, +ifeng _hao, December 4535, 7!entifying %earJ1erm Bpportunities 'or Carbon Capture an! -e@uestration (CC-? in China,8
http9::!ocs.nr!c.org:international:files:intF35343553a.p!f?::DR. H
CoalGthe most car%on?la$en of the three ma8or fossil f&els (i.e., natural gas, cru!e oil, an! coal?Is&pplies
nearl! L5 percent of China-s energ!. China-s hea+! reliance on this f&el is reflecte$ %! the fact
that $&ring the last fi+e !ears the co&ntr! has acco&nte$ for nearl! fo&rfifths of the glo%al
growth in coal cons&mption.O In =55@ China cons&me$ more coal than North an$ So&th
America, the E&ropean *nion '&ssia the Mi$$le East an$ Africa com%ine$ (see 'igure 4.3?. >ea+!
reliance on coal has sharpl! $ri+en &p China-s C(= emissions. n 3<<6, China emitte! K.5P billion tons, or
gigatons (Gt?, of CB4. A !eca!e later, in 4556, ChinaQs CB4 emissions stoo! =5 percent higher, at o#er > Gt a year.< As a result, China-s
ann&al C(= emissions now e2cee$ those of the *nite$ States. 35 4ith its C(= emissions
s&rging nearl! eight times faster than in the rest of the worl$ (see 'igure 4.4?, China has a pi+otal
role to pla! in the glo%al effort to pre+ent the worst impacts of glo%al warming from
occ&rring.11
No mo$eling in China , it-s str&ct&rall! impossi%le
Downs @
)ric, 'ello/ g &roo(ings, China )nergy 'ello/, 'oreign Policy, John +. 1hornton China Center ".-.JChina )conomic W -ecurity Re#ie/ Commission,
ChinaQs )nergy Policies an! 1heir )n#ironmental mpacts, http9::///.broo(ings.e!u:testimony:455O:5O3KFchinaF!o/ns.asp*
China suffers from a !isconnect bet/een the increasingly prominent position of energy issues on its !omestic an! foreign policy agen!as an! the
capacity of the countryQs institutions to manage the energy sector. -ome Chinese commentators ha#e e#en argue! that the biggest threat to ChinaQs
energy security is pose! by the #ery institutions responsible for enhancing it. Conse@uently, restructuring ChinaQs energy policyma(ing apparatus has
been a sub;ect of intense !ebate in recent years as the country has grapple! /ith an une*pecte! surge in energy !eman!, gro/ing !epen!ence on
energy imports, rising global energy prices an! perio!ic !omestic energy supply shortages. Authority o#er ChinaQs energy sector at the
national le#el is fracture! among more than a !oAen go#ernment agencies, the most important of /hich is the %ational De#elopment an!
Reform Commission (%DRC?. ,ithin the %DRC itself, responsibility for energy is similarly scattere! among multiple !epartments. Prior to the
restructuring in March 455O, the (ey component /as the )nergy &ureau, /hich ha! a broa! man!ate but lac(e! the authority, tools an! manpo/er
to fulfill it. n 455>, the go#ernment a!!e! another coo( to the (itchen /ith the establishment of the %ational )nergy +ea!ing Group, an a!#isory
bo!y hea!e! by Premier ,en Jiabao. ,hile the lea!ing groupQs creation reflecte! recognition of the nee! to strengthen energy sector management,
it !i! not era!icate ChinaQs energy go#ernance /oes. ChinaQs fragmente! energy policyma(ing structure has impe!e! energy
go#ernance because there is no single institution, such as a Ministry of )nergy, /ith the authority to coor!inate the
interests of the #arious sta(ehol!ers. 'or e*ample, the implementation of energy la/s is hampere! by the fact that those la/s
often !o not specify the go#ernment agencies responsible for implementation because of !isputes o#er /ho shoul! be in charge. -imilarly, the fuel
ta* that the %PC appro#e! in 3<<< has not been implemente! because of the failure of the rele#ant sta(ehol!ers to reach an agreement. 1he policy
paralysis /ithin the energy bureaucracy stan!s in sharp contrast to the acti#ism of ChinaQs stateJo/ne! energy companies. 1hese firms are po/erful
an! relati#ely autonomous actors. 1heir influence is !eri#e! from their full an! #ice ministerial ran(s, the membership of some top e*ecuti#es in the
Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, in!ustry e*pertise, internationally liste! subsi!iaries an! profitability (at least until recently?.
More often than not, it is ChinaQs energy firms /ho initiate ma;or energy pro;ects an! policies that are later embrace! by the go#ernment, such as the
,estJ)ast Pipeline an! the ac@uisition of foreign energy assets. 1he companies also ha#e some capacity to a!#ance corporate interests at the e*pense
of national ones. 'or e*ample, oil an! po/er generating companies ha#e perio!ically re!uce! their output to pressure the go#ernment to raise the
stateJset prices of refine! pro!ucts an! electricity, /hich ha#e not (ept pace /ith increases in the mar(etJ!etermine! prices of cru!e oil an! coal.
-imilarly, ChinaQs national oil companies ha#e ignore! gui!ance from the central go#ernment about /here they shoul! in#est o#erseas. . ChinaQs
7ne/8 energy policyma(ing structure 1he recent changes to ChinaQs energy policyma(ing apparatus are the latest in a series of institutional reforms
aime! at impro#ing energy go#ernance. n March 455O, the %PC appro#e! t/o a!!itions to ChinaQs energy bureaucracy 0 the -tate )nergy
Commission (-)C? an! the %ational )nergy A!ministration (%)A?. 1he -)C, a highJle#el !iscussion an! coor!ination bo!y /hose specific
functions, organiAation an! staffing ha#e not yet been !etermine!, /ill replace the %ational )nergy +ea!ing Group. 1he !aily affairs of the -)C /ill
be han!le! by the %)A, a #iceJministerial component of the %DRC, /hich is the successor to the %DRCQs )nergy &ureau. n a!!ition to the )nergy
&ureau, the %)A is also comprise! of other energy offices from the %DRC, the Bffice of the %ational +ea!ing Group, an! the nuclear po/er
a!ministration of the Commission of -cience, 1echnology an! n!ustry for %ational Defense. 1he %)A has a broa! man!ate, /hich inclu!es
managing the countryQs energy in!ustries, !rafting energy plans an! policies, negotiating /ith international energy agencies an! appro#ing foreign
energy in#estments. 1he %)A, li(e its pre!ecessor, /ill struggle to fulfill its man!ate because it lac(s the authority, autonomy, manpo/er an! tools
to !eal /ith the countryQs energy challenges. Although the %)AQs capabilities in each of these areas are greater than those possesse! by the %DRC
)nergy &ureau, they still fall short of /hat the %)A nee!s to !o its ;ob. Authority9 1he %)A has more political clout than its pre!ecessor, but not
enough to mitigate the bureaucratic infighting that un!ermines energy !ecisionJma(ing. 1he %)A is a #iceJministerial bo!y, /hich is a step abo#e
that of the )nergy &ureau, /hich /as a bureauJle#el organiAation. Ho/e#er, the %)A still !oes not ha#e the authority it nee!s to coor!inate the
interests of ministries, commissions an! stateJo/ne! energy companies. Bne of the frustrations of officials in the %DRC )nergy &ureau /as that the
energy companies often un!ercut their authority by circum#enting the &ureau to hol! faceJtoJface !iscussions /ith ChinaQs senior lea!ership. 1he
authority of the %)A is some/hat enhance! by the appointment of _hang Guobao, a CiceJChairman of the %DRC /ith full ministerial ran(, as hea!
of the %)A. ,hile it /as /i!ely e*pecte! that _hang /oul! retire, his ne/ position is a reflection of his substantial energy e*pertise. _hang, /ho has
/or(e! at the %DRC since 3<OK, is a smart an! s(illful bureaucrat /ith encyclope!ic (no/le!ge of ChinaQs energy sector. He has o#erseen the
!e#elopment of some of the countryQs ma;or infrastructure pro;ects, inclu!ing the ,estJ)ast Pipeline, the transmission of electricity from /est to
east, the SinghaiJ1ibet Rail/ay an! the e*pansion of &ei;ing Capital nternational Airport. Autonomy9 1he %)A is a creature of the %DRC. -ome
Chinese me!ia reports speculate! that the fact that the %)AQs offices /ill be separate from those of the %DRC an! that the %)A /ill ha#e its o/n
Party Group 0 /hich /ill gi#e the %)A greater autonomy in managing its affairs, inclu!ing personnel !ecisions 0 are signs of the %)AQs
in!epen!ence. Ho/e#er, the fact that _hang Guobao 0 an %DRC 7lifer8 0 is hea! of the %)A an! its Party Group in!icates that the %)AQs room to
maneu#er /ill be constraine! by the %DRC. Moreo#er, the %)AQs in!epen!ence is limite! by the fact that (ey tools it nee!s to effecti#ely manage the
energy sector are in the han!s of the %DRC. 1ools9 Arguably the greatest constraint on the %)AQs ability to fulfill its man!ate is the fact that is !oes
not possess the authority to set energy prices, /hich remain the pur#ie/ of the %DRCQs Pricing Department. 1he issue of /ho /oul! en! up /ith the
po/er to !etermine energy prices /as, in the /or!s of _hang Guobao, a sub;ect of 7constant !ispute8 !uring the bureaucratic reorganiAation.
Although the %)A can ma(e suggestions about energy price a!;ustments an! shoul! be consulte! by the %DRC on any propose! changes, the shots
are still being calle! by the %DRC (an! ultimately the -tate Council, /hose appro#al is nee!e! for any ma;or energy price changes?. 1he fact that the
%DRC retaine! control o#er energy prices is har!ly surprising. 1he po/er to set prices is one of the %DRCQs main instruments of macroeconomic
control, /hich it un!erstan!ably is reluctant to relin@uish, especially to a subor!inate component /hich might be tempte! to a!;ust energy prices in
/ays that run counter to broa!er %DRC ob;ecti#es, such as combating inflation. 1he %)AQs lac( of authority o#er energy prices ma(es its tas( of
mitigating the current electricity shortages, /hich are partly roote! in price controls, especially challenging. )lectricity prices are set by the state,
/hile coal prices are !etermine! by the mar(et. 1he failure of electricity price increases to (eep pace /ith soaring coal prices has contribute! to the
national po/er shortage because some electricity pro!ucers canHt affor! coal /hile others are un/illing to operate at a loss. ,ith no pricing po/er,
the %)A has little choice but to resort to a!ministrati#e measures to achie#e an ob;ecti#e that /oul! be more effecti#ely realiAe! by raising an!
ultimately liberaliAing electricity prices. Personnel9 1he central go#ernment is still managing the energy sector /ith a
s#eleton crew. Contrary to rumors that the %)AQs staff /oul! be as large as 455, it en!e! up /ith ;ust 334 people. 1his staff
@uota is certainly larger than that of the %DRC )nergy &ureau, /hich ha! only >5 people, but it !oes not represent a ma;or increase in the
number of people !irectly in#ol#e! in managing the energy sector at the national le#el. Moreo#er, some Chinese me!ia reports ha#e speculate! that
the %)A may face the problem of 7too many generals an! not enough sol!iers8 because at least half of the 334 slots at the %)A are for positions at the
!eputy !epartment hea! le#el an! abo#e. 1he Party organ that !etermines the functions, internal structure an! staff @uotas for go#ernment
institutions probably resiste! calls for more personnel out of concern that if it appro#e! a large staff for the %)A, then other go#ernment bo!ies
/oul! also press for more manpo/er at a time /hen the -tate Council is trying to streamline the bureaucracy. n sum, ChinaQs ne/ energy
a!ministration is unli(ely to substantially impro#e energy go#ernance. 1he organiAational changes are tantamount
to rearranging !ec( chairs on the 1itanic. Although the energy bureaucracy loo(s a bit !ifferent, its limite! capacities remain largely
unchange!. Conse@uently, /e can e*pect to see a continuation of business as usual9 conflicts of interest /ill impe!e
!ecisionJma(ingR the energy companies /ill remain important !ri#ers of pro;ects an! policiesR stateJset energy prices /ill
continue to contribute to perio!ic !omestic energy supply shortfallsR an! the %)A, /ith no authority to a!;ust energy prices, probably /ill
resort to 7secon! best8 a!ministrati#e measures to try to era!icate those shortages. 1he mo!est tin(ering to ChinaQs energy
policyma(ing apparatus un#eile! !uring the March 455O %PC meeting reflects the conflicts of interest that stymie energy !ecisionJma(ing. Despite
/i!esprea! recognition among Chinese officials an! energy e*perts of the nee! to get the countryQs energy institutions 7right8 an! the gro/ing
chorus of #oices calling for the establishment of a Ministry of )nergy (MB)?, there are po/erful ministerial an! corporate interests that fa#or the
status @uo. 1he opposition to the creation of a MB), a hot topic of !ebate in Chinese energy circles in recent years, /as le! by the %DRC an! the
stateJo/ne! energy companies. 1he mere specter of a MB) stri(es fear in the heart of the %DRC because it /oul! !epri#e the %DRC of a substantial
portion of its portfolio an! important tools of macroeconomic control. 1he %DRCQs a#ersion is share! by the energy firms /ho are reluctant to ha#e
another political master an! afrai! that a MB) /oul! limit their !irect access to ChinaQs lea!ership. -uch opposition helps e*plain /hy the
go#ernment /as unable to forge a consensus in fa#or of more robust changes to ChinaQs energy policyma(ing apparatus. mplications for the "nite!
-tates 'irst, "- policyma(ers shoul! recogniAe that ChinaQs fracture! energy policyma(ing apparatus may
constrain the Chinese go#ernment from !oing all that "- policyma(ers /oul! li(e it to !o 0 an! in!ee! /hat
Chinese lea!ers themsel#es might /ant to !o 0 to enhance international energy security an! combat climate change. f China falls
short of our e*pectations it may not reflect a conscious !ecision by &ei;ing to shir( its global responsibilities but rather the limite!
capacity of its national energy institutions to ben! other actors, notably firms an! local go#ernments, to its
/ill.
Ine+ita%le
Mars pro+esGsolar changes are ine+ita%le an$ ca&se more warming
National Post =55L (+a/rence -olomon, staff /riter, 'ebruary P, 7+oo( to Mars for the 1ruth on Globl ,arming8
http9::///.nationalpost.com:story.htmlUi!Ye!ae<<>4JKcKeJ6PbaJ<3KfJPK><a>cPfP4KW(Y5:?
Climate change is a much, much bigger issue than the public, politicians, an! e#en the most alarme! en#ironmentalists realiAe. Global /arming
e*ten!s to Mars, /here the polar ice cap is shrin(ing, /here !eep gullies in the lan!scape are no/ lai! bare, an! /here the climate is the
/armest it has been in !eca!es or centuries. MBne e*planation coul! be that Mars is ;ust coming out of an ice age,M %A-A scientist ,illiam
'el!man speculate! after the agencyHs Mars B!yssey complete! its first Martian year of !ata collection. Mn some lo/Jlatitu!e areas, the ice has alrea!y
!issipate!.M ,ith each passing year more an! more e#i!ence arises of the !ramatic changes occurring on the only planet on the solar system, apart from
)arth, to gi#e up its climate secrets. %A-AHs fin!ings in space come as no surprise to Dr. Habibullo Ab!ussamato# at -aint PetersburgHs Pul(o#o
Astronomical Bbser#atory. Pul(o#o JJ at the pinnacle of RussiaHs spaceJoriente! scientific establishment JJ is one of the /orl!Hs best e@uippe!
obser#atories an! has been since its foun!ing in 3OK<. Hea!ing Pul(o#oHs space research laboratory is Dr. Ab!ussamato#, one of the /orl!Hs chief critics
of the theory that manJma!e carbon !io*i!e emissions create a greenhouse effect, lea!ing to global /arming. MMars has global /arming, but
/ithout a greenhouse an! /ithout the participation of Martians,M he tol! me. M1hese parallel global /armings JJ
obser#e! simultaneously on Mars an! on )arth JJ can only be a straightline conse@uence of the effect of the one same factor9 a longJtime
change in solar irra!iance.M 1he sunHs increase! irra!iance o#er the last century, not C54 emissions, is responsible for the global /arming
/eHre seeing, says the celebrate! scientist, an! this solar irra!iance also e*plains the great #olume of C54 emissions. Mt is no secret that
increase! solar irra!iance /arms )arthHs oceans, /hich then triggers the emission of large amounts of carbon
!io*i!e into the atmosphere. -o the common #ie/ that manHs in!ustrial acti#ity is a !eci!ing factor in global /arming has emerge! from
a misinterpretation of cause an! effect relations.M Dr. Ab!ussamato# goes further, !ebun(ing the #ery notion of a greenhouse effect.
MAscribing HgreenhouseH effect properties to the )arthHs atmosphere is not scientifically substantiate!,M he maintains. MHeate!
greenhouse gases, /hich become lighter as a result of e*pansion, ascen! to the atmosphere only to gi#e the absorbe! heat
a/ay.M
Can-t sol+e warming
>amilton 15 0 Professor of Public )thics g A%"
Cli#e Hamilton, Professor of Public )thics in Australia, 4535, 7Re@uiem for a -pecies9 ,hy ,e Resist the 1ruth About Climate Change,8 pg 4PJ4O
1he conclusion that, e+en if we act promptl! an$ resol&tel! , the /orl! is on a path to reach =>5 ppm is almost
too frightening to accept. 1hat le#el of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere /ill be associate! /ith /arming of about 6lC by the
en! of the century, /ell abo#e the temperature associate! /ith tipping points that /oul! trigger further
/arming.>O -o it seems that e#en /ith the most optimistic set of assumptionsIthe en!ing of !eforestation, a hal#ing of
emissions associate! /ith foo! pro!uction, global emissions pea(ing in 4545 an! then falling by K per cent a year for a fe/ !eca!esIwe ha+e
no chance of pre#enting emissions rising /ell abo#e a number of critical tipping points that /ill spar(
uncontrollable climate change. 1he )arthHs climate /oul! enter a chaotic era lasting thousan!s of years
before natural processes e#entually establish some sort of e@uilibrium. ,hether human beings /oul! still be a force on the
planet, or e#en sur#i#e, is a moot point. Bne thing seems certain9 there /ill be far fe/er of us. 1hese conclusions arc alarming, co say the least,
but they are not alarmist. Rather than choosing or interpreting numbers to ma(e the situation appear /orse than it coul! be, follo/ing 2e#in
An!erson an! Alice &o/s 3 ha#e chosen numbers that err on the conser#ati#e si!e, /hich is to say numbers that reflect a more buoyant assessment
of the possibilities. A more neutral assessment of ho/ the global community is li(ely to respon! /oul! gi#e an e#en blea(er assessment of our future.
'or e*ample, the analysis e*clu!es nonJCB4, emissions from a#iation an! shipping. nclu!ing them ma(es the tas( significantly har!er, particularly
as a#iation emissions ha#e been gro/ing rapi!ly an! are e*pecte! to continue to !o so as there is no foreseeable alternati#e to se#erely restricting the
number of flights.#H An! any realistic assessment of the prospects for international agreement /oul! ha#e global emissions pea(ing closer to 45K5
rather than 4545. 1he last chance to re+erse the tra8ector! of glo%al emissions by 4545 was forfeite$
at the Copenhagen climate conference in December 455<. As a conse@uence, a global response proportionate to the problem
/as !eferre! for se#eral years.
4arming ine+ita%le e+en if we c&t emissions to ;eroGm&ltiple st&$ies confirm
Millett et al 15I!irector g the Cana!ian Centre for Climate Mo!eling an! Analysis
%athan, 7Bngoing climate change follo/ing a complete cessation of carbon !io*i!e emissions8. #at(re &eos-ien-e
-e#eral recent stu!ies ha#e !emonstrate! that CB4Jin!uce! 3P global mean temperature change is
irre#ersible on human 3O timescales3F>. ,e fin! that not only is this climate change 3< irre#ersible, but that for
some climate #ariables, such as Antarctic 45 temperature an! %orth African rainfall, CB4Jin!uce! climate 43
changes are simulate! to continue to /orsen for many centuries 44 e+en after a complete cessation of
emissions. Although it is 4K also /ell (no/n that a large committe! thermosteric sea le#el 46 rise is e*pecte! e#en
after a cessation of emissions in 4355, 4> our fin!ing of a strong !elaye! highJlatitu!e -outhern Bcean 4= /arming at interme!iate
!epths suggests that this effect may be 4P compoun!e! by ice shelf collapse, groun!ing line retreat, an! ensuing
accelerate! ice !ischarge in marineJbase! sectors of the 4O Antarctic ice sheet, precipitating a sea le#el rise of
se#eral metres. 4< Suantitati#e results presente! here are sub;ect to uncertainties K5 associate! /ith the climate sensiti#ity, the rate of ocean
heat K3 upta(e an! the rate of carbon upta(e in Can)-M3, but our K4 fin!ings of %orthern Hemisphere cooling, -outhern
Hemisphere KK /arming, a south/ar! shift of the intertropical con#ergence Aone, K6 an! !elaye! an! ongoing
ocean /arming at interme!iate !epths K> follo/ing a cessation of emissions are li(ely to be robust. GeoJ K=
engineering by stratospheric aerosol in;ection has been propose! KP as a response measure in the e#ent of a rapi! melting of the KO ,est Antarctic
ice sheet46. Bur results in!icate that if such a K< melting /ere !ri#en by ocean /arming at interme!iate !epths, as 65 is thought li(ely, a
geoengineering response /oul! be ineffecti#e 63 for se#eral centuries o/ing to the long !elay associate! /ith 64 subsurface ocean /arming.
95 !ear time gap pre+ents sol+ing warming , an! effect ta#es $eca$es
4al#er an$ Qing @GDirector of the School of En+ironment [(2for$
Gabrielle, PhD in Chemistry, -ir Da#i!, Director of the -mith -chool of )nterprise an! the )n#ironment at the "ni#ersity of B*for!, an! a senior
scientific a!#iser to "&-, 1he Hot 1opic, pg. 6P
Most people ha#e no/ realiAe! that climate change is upon us. f pushe!, most /oul! probably say that if /e !onQt !o something to change the /ay
/e li#e, things are more li(ely to get /orse. &ut fe/ seem to ha#e notice! one of the most important points to emerge from the last fe/ years of
scientific pro;ections. All the e#i!ence suggests that the /orl! /ill e*perience significant an! potentially highly !angerous
changes in climate o#er the ne*t fe/ !eca!es no matter what we $o now . 1hatQs because the ocean has
a built in lag. t ta(es time to heat up, /hich is /hy the nicest time to s/im is often the en! of the summer rather than the mi!!le. 1he
same principle hol!s for global /arming, but on a longer timescale9 &ecause the oceans gra!ually soa( up heat generate! by
the e*tra greenhouse gases, the f&ll effect won-t %e felt for $eca$es to cent&ries. 1his means that
/hate#er /e !o no/ to change our carbon habits /ill ta(e se#eral !eca!es to ha#e any effect. n other /or!s,
accor!ing to our most sophisticate! mo!els, the ne*t t/enty to thirty years /ill be more or less the same
/hether /e @uic(ly (ic( the carbon habit or continue burning as many fossil fuels as /e can. ,hate#er /e !o
to!ay to re!uce emissions /ill matter for our chil!renQs generation an! beyon!, but not for our o/n. 1he problem of climate change is one of legacy.
No E2tinction
E+ol&tion chec#s
NIPCC 11 (%ongo#ernmental nternational Panel on Climate Change, 74533 nterim Report from the %ongo#ernmental nternational Panel on
Climate Change,8 http9::nipccreport.org:reports:4533:4533report.html?
Bne of the most po/erful means plant an! animal species ha#e for a#oi!ing e*tinction !uring climate change is the ability
to e#ol#e in /ays that enable them to !eal /ith the change . -e#eral stu!ies ha#e !emonstrate! the abilities of
numerous plants an! animals to !o ;ust that. ,or(ing in the -/iss Alps, -toc(lin et al. (455<? stu!ie! the conse@uences of the highly
structure! alpine lan!scape for e#olutionary processes in four !ifferent plants ()pilobium fleischeri, Geum reptans, Campanula thyrsoi!es, an! Poa
alpina?, testing for /hether genetic !i#ersity /ithin their populations /as relate! to altitu!e an! lan! use, /hile see(ing to !etermine /hether genetic
!ifferentiation among populations /as relate! more to !ifferent lan! use or to geographic !istances. n pursuit of these goals, the three -/iss scientists
!etermine! that /ithin population genetic !i#ersity of the four species /as high an! mostly not relate! to altitu!e an! population siAe, /hile genetic
!ifferentiation among populations /as pronounce! an! strongly increase! /ith !istance, implying mconsi!erable genetic !rift among populations of
alpine plants. &ase! on these fin!ings an! the obser#ations of others, -toc(lin et al. /rite, mphenotypic plasticity is particularly pronounce! in alpine
plants, an! mbecause of the high heterogeneity of the alpine lan!scape, the pronounce! capacity of a single genotype to e*hibit
#ariable phenotypes is a clear a!#antage for the persistence an! sur#i#al of alpine plants. Hence they conclu!e,
mthe e#olutionary potential to respon! to global change is mostly intact in alpine plants, e#en at high altitu!e. 1his
result ma(es it much easier to un!erstan! /hyIe#en in the face of significant t/entiethJcentury global /armingI no
species of plants ha+e %een o%ser+e$ to ha+e %een \p&she$ off the planet in alpine regions . 1his has
been sho/n to be the case in se#eral pertinent stu!ies, inclu!ing ,alther et al. (455>?, 2ullman (455P?, HolAinger et al. (455O?, Ran!in et al. (455<?,
an! )rschbamer et al. (455<?.
9 perio$s of rapi$ warming show no e2tinctions? mo$els are flawe$ g&esswor#
NIPCC 11 (%ongo#ernmental nternational Panel on Climate Change, 74533 nterim Report from the %ongo#ernmental nternational Panel on
Climate Change,8 http9::nipccreport.org:reports:4533:4533report.html?
1he first perio! they e*amine! /as the )ocene Climatic Bptimum (>K0>3 million years ago?, /hen the atmosphere[s CB4
concentration e*cee!e! 3,455 ppm an! tropical temperatures /ere >035lC /armer than mo!ern #alues. .et far
from causing e*tinctions of the tropical flora (/here the !ata are best?, the four researchers report mall the e#i!ence from lo/Jlatitu!e
recor!s in!icates that, at least in the plant fossil recor!, this /as one of the most bio!i#erse inter#als of time in the
%eotropics. 1hey also note mancestors of many of our mo!ern tropical an! temperate plants e#ol#e! .../hen global
temperatures an! CB4 /ere much higher than present ... in!icating that they ha#e much /i!er ecological
tolerances than are pre!icte! base! on presentJ!ay climates alone. 1he secon! perio! they e*amine! inclu!e! t/o rapi!J
change climatic e#ents in the HoloceneIone at 36,P55 years ago an! one at 33,=55 years agoI/hen temperatures increase! in the
mi!J to highJlatitu!es of the %orthern Hemisphere by up to 35lC o#er perio!s of less than =5 years. 1here is e#i!ence from many sites for
rapi! plant responses to rapi! /arming !uring these e#ents. 1he researchers note mat no site yet stu!ie!, any/here in the
/orl!, is there e#i!ence in the fossil recor! for largeJscale climateJ!ri#en e*tinction !uring these inter#als of
rapi! /arming. Bn the other han!, they report e*tinctions !i! occur !ue to the col! temperatures of the glacial epoch, /hen subtropical species
in southern )urope /ere !ri#en out of their comfort Aone. 1he ,illis et al. stu!y also ma(es use of recent historical !ata, as in the case of the KlC rise
in temperature at .osemite Par( o#er the past 355 years. n comparing sur#eys of mammal fauna con!ucte! near the beginning an!
en! of this perio!, they !etecte! some changes but no local e2tinctions . 1hus they !etermine! that for all of the perio!s
they stu!ie!, /ith either #ery /arm temperatures or #ery rapi! /arming, there /ere no $etecta%le species
e2tinctions. n a stu!y that may help e*plain ho/ some researchers coul! ha#e gotten things so /rong in pre!icting massi#e e*tinctions of both
plants an! animals in response to pro;ecte! future /arming, %oguesJ&ra#o (455<? e*plains the climate en#elope mo!els (C)Ms?Ioften
employe! to pre!ict species responses to global /arming (an! /hether or not a species /ill be able to sur#i#e pro;ecte! temperature increases?Imare
sensiti#e to theoretical assumptions, to mo!el classes an! to pro;ections in nonJanalogous climates, among other issues. 1o !etermine ho/
appropriate these mo!els are for !etermining /hether a particular species /ill be !ri#en to e*tinction by hypothesiAe! planetary /arming, %oguesJ&ra#o
re#ie/e! the scientific literature pertaining to the sub;ect an! foun! se#eral fla/s. %oguesJ&ra#o /rites, mthe stu!ies re#ie/e!9 (3? rarely
test the theoretical assumptions behin! niche mo!eling such as the stability of species climatic niches through time an! the
e@uilibrium of species /ith climateR (4? they only use one mo!el class (P4L of the stu!ies? an! one palaeoclimatic reconstruction (=4.>L? to
calibrate their mo!elsR (K? they !o not chec( for the occurrence of nonJanalogous climates (<PL?R an! (6? they !o not use
in!epen!ent !ata to #ali!ate the mo!els (P4L?. %oguesJ&ra#o /rites, mignoring the theoretical assumptions behin! niche mo!eling
an! using ina!e@uate metho!s for hin!casting can pro!uce ma casca!e of errors an! nac#e ecological an! e#olutionary
inferences. Hence, he conclu!es, mthere are a /i!e #ariety of challenges that C)Ms must o#ercome in or!er to
impro#e the reliability of their pre!ictions through time. "ntil these challenges are met, contentions of impen!ing species
e*tinctions must be consi!ere! little more than guess/or( (see also Chapman, 4535?.
4arming impacts ha+e no empirical %asis? weather will li#el! get mil$er
/ast 1= ( Joseph +. &ast is presi!ent an! C)B of 1he Heartlan! nstitute, a 44JyearJol! national nonprofit research center locate! in Chicago,
llinois. Accor!ing to a recent telephone sur#ey, among state electe! officials 1he Heartlan! nstitute is among the nationQs bestJ(no/n an! most highly
regar!e! Mthin( tan(s.M 7Global ,arming9 %ot a Crisis,8 http9::heartlan!.org:i!eas:globalJ/armingJnotJcrisis`-inger?
Alarmists claim global /arming /ill cause massi#e floo!ing, more #iolent /eather, famines, an! other
catastrophic conse@uences. f these claims are true, then /e shoul! ha#e seen e#i!ence of this tren! !uring the
t/entieth century. !so an! -inger (455<? pro#i!e e*tensi#e e#i!ence that no such tren!s ha#e been obser#e!. )#en #on
-torch (4533? a!mits there is no consens&s on these matters . 1he prepon!erance of scientific !ata suggest sea
le#els are unli(ely to rise by more than se#eral inches, /eather may actually become more mil!, an! since most
/arming occurs at night an! !uring the /inter season, it has little a!#erse effect (an! some positi#e effect? on plants
an! /il!life. Hurricanes are li(ely to !iminish, not increase, in fre@uency or se#erity (-pencer, 455OR -inger an! A#ery,
455O?.
No 4arming
No warming no impactJ all lies
)ehr =556 (Jay, -cience Director of the Heartlan! nstitute, 3J34J455>, .earboo( of )*perts?
)CD)%C) 1HA1 1H) 1)MP)RA1"R) B' 1H) )AR1H - %B1 %CR)A-%G -G%'CA%1+. A- A R)-"+1 B' MA%H- AC1C1. B% 1H)
P+A%)1 3 J Bur most reliable sources of temperature !ata sho/ no global /arming tren!. -atellite an! /eather
balloon rea!ings of temperatures in the lo/er troposphere (an area scientists pre!ict /oul! imme!iately reflect any
global /arming? sho/ no /arming since rea!ings began 4> years ago, /hen the satellite system /as first launche!. Bnly lan!
base! temperature stations sho/ a /arming tren!, an! these stations !o not co#er the entire globe as satellite rea!ings !o, an! these
are often affecte! by heat generate! by nearby urban !e#elopment. 4 J All pre!ictions of global /arming are base! on
computer mo!els not historical !ata. n or!er to get their mo!els to pro!uce pre!ictions that are close to their !esigners e*pectations,
mo!elers ma(e a!;ustments to un(no/n #ariables that are many times greater than the effect of !oubling carbon
!io*i!e concentrations in the atmosphere. 'or e*ample, (no/le!ge of the amount of energy flo/ing from the e@uator to the poles is uncertain by an
amount e@ui#alent to 4> to K5 ,atts per s@uare meter (,:m4? of the earthHs surface. the amount of sunlight absorbe! by the atmosphere or reflecte! by
the surface is also uncertain by as much as 4> ,:m4. 1he role of clou!s is uncertain by at least 4> ,:m4. 1he heat a!!e! to the atmosphere by a
!oubling of CB4 is not uncertain. t is easily measure! in laboratory e*periments an! amounts to only 6 ,atts per s@uare meter (6 ,:m4? of the earthHs
surface. Bb#iously the uncertainties are many times larger than the input of energy resulting from a !oubling of carbon !io*i!e in the atmosphere. K J
,hen scientists analyAe! the relationship bet/een atmospheric CB4 le#els an! temperatures !ating bac( 4>5,555 years in ice cores from
Greenlan! an! Antarctica, they foun! that sometimes concentration of CB4 /as high /hen the temperature /as lo/
an! sometime CB4 /as lo/ /hen temperature /as high. 6 J ,hile /e hear much about one or another melting glaciers, a recent stu!y of 46= glaciers
aroun! the /orl! bet/een 3<6= an! 3<<> in!icate! a balance bet/een those that are losing ice, gaining ice an!
remaining in e@uilibrium. 1here is no global tren! in any !irection. > J 1he gases in the atmosphere that absorb outgoing
ra!iation forming the greenhouse effect are /ater #apor (absorbing <5L of outgoing heat?, methane (6L?, nitrous
o*i!e (4L?, carbon !io*i!e (6L?. 1hus a !oubling of CB4 /oul! not achie#e a significant change in heat retaine!.
= J 1emperature fluctuations !uring the current K55 year reco#ery from the +ittle ce Age /hich en!e! aroun! 3P55AD, follo/ing the
Me!ie#al ,arming Perio! correlate almost perfectly /ith fluctuations in solar acti#ity. 1his correlation long pre!ates
human use of significant amounts of fossil fuels such as coal, oil an! natural gas. P J n !efining the tremen!ous impact the sun has on climate one must
really un!erstan!s the actual mo#ement of the earth aroun! the sun. 1here are three #ariables, orbit shape, tilt an! /obble /hich profoun!ly affect
/eather patterns. 1he earthHs orbit !oes not form a circle as it mo#es aroun! the sun J it forms an ellipse passing further a/ay from the sun at the one
en! of the orbit than at the other en!. During the 355,555 year cycle the tug of other planets on the earth causes its orbit to change shape. t shifts from a
short broa! ellipse that (eeps the earth closer to the sun to a long flat ellipse that allo/s it to mo#e farther from the sun an! bac( again. O J 1here is
no consensus of scientists in fa#or of human cause! global /arming. ,hile opinion polls !o not !etermine truth in science, more than
3P,555 American scientists signe! a petition !rafte! by the Bregon nstitute of -cience an! Me!icine /hich state!9 M1here is
no con#incing scientific e#i!ence that human release of carbon !io*i!e, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or /ill, in the foreseeable
future, cause catastrophic heating of the )arthHs atmosphere an! !isruption of the )arthHs climate. Moreo#er, there is substantial scientific
e#i!ence that increases in atmospheric carbon !io*i!e pro!uce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant an! animal en#ironments of the )arth.M < J
A mo!est amount of global /arming, shoul! it occur /oul! be beneficial to the natural /orl!. 1he /armest perio! in
recor!e! history /as the Me!ie#al ,arm Perio! roughly O55 to 3455AD /hen temperatures /ere P to < !egrees 'ahrenheit /armer than to!ay
allo/ing great prosperity of man(in!. 35 J Carbon !io*i!e is %B1 a pollutant. Bn the contrary it ma(es crops an! forests gro/
faster. Mapping by satellite sho/s that the earth has become about =L greener o#erall in the past t/o !eca!es, /ith forests e*pan!ing into ari!
regions. 1he AmaAon rain forest /as the biggest gainer, !espite the much a!#ertise! !eforestation cause! by human cutting along their
e!ges. Certainly climate change !oes not help e#ery region e@ually, but careful stu!ies pre!ict o#erall benefit, fe/er storms (not more?, more rain, better
crop yiel!s, longer gro/ing seasons, mil!er /inters an! !ecreasing heating costs in col!er climates. 1he ne/s is certainly not all ba! an! on balance may
be rather goo!. 33 J )nergy is the currency of technological progress. &illions of people in the )arthHs poor countries are trying to lift themsel#es from
po#erty through use of simple technology. Hun!re!s of millions of these people are so close to the bottom rungs of the la!!er of e*istence that loss of
hy!rocarbon fuels can cause their !eaths. Many international elitists un!erstan! this /ell as they attempt to use the myth of global /arming as a means
of Mpopulation controlM. 34 J Global /arming is a ma;or in!ustry to!ay. &et/een 3<<4 an! 4555 the ".-. Go#ernment spent T3O
&illion on climate change research an! no/ contributes T= billion a year. 1his finances ;obs, grants, conferences,
international tra#el an! aca!emic ;ournals. t not only (eeps a huge army of people in comfortable
employment, but also fills them /ith self righteousness an! moral superiority regar!less of the fact that real
science !i! not support it.
No warmingGwe-+e entere$ a 95 !ear perio$ of coolingGpro+e$ %! PD(s
$$ PAC'C D)CADA+ B-C++A1B%
Easter%roo# 15Igeology professor specialiAing in climate effects
(Don, geology professor emeritus at ,estern ,ashington "ni#ersity Dhttp9::my/eb.//u.e!u:!bunny:research:global:easterbroo(FclimateJcycleJ
e#i!ence.p!fE )CD)%C) B' 1H) CA"-) B' G+B&A+ ,ARM%G A%D CBB+%G9 R)C"RR%G G+B&A+, D)CADA+, C+MA1) C.C+)-
R)CBRD)D &. G+ACA+ '+"C1"A1B%-, C) CBR)-, BC)A% 1)MP)RA1"R)-, H-1BRC M)A-"R)M)%1- A%D -B+AR CARA1B%-?
[Global /armingQ (the term use! for /arming from 3<PP to 3<<O? is o#er. %o /arming abo#e the le#el temperatures in
3<<O has occurre! an! global cooling has !eepene! since 455> ('ig. 46?. -/itching of the PDB bac( an! forth from
/arm to cool mo!es has been !ocumente! by %A-AQs satellite imagery ('igs. 4>, 4=?. 1he satellite image from 3<O< is
typical of the /arm mo!e (3<6>J3<PP? /ith most of the eastern Pacific a!;acent to %orth America sho/ing sha!es of yello/ to re!, in!icating /arm
/ater. 1he satellite image from 3<<< ('ig. 4P? sho/s a strong contrast to the 3<<P image, /ith !eep cooling of the
eastern Pacific an! a shift from the PDB /arm to the PDB cool mo!e. 1his effecti#ely mar(e! the en! of
[global /armingQ (i.e., the 3<PP to 3<<O /arm cycle?. 'igures 4P0K5 sho/ that the s/itch of the PDB from its /arm cycle to
the present cool cycle has become firmly establishe!. )ach time this has occurre! in the past century, global
temperatures ha#e remaine! cool for about K5 years ('ig. K3?. 1hus, the current sea surface temperatures not only e*plain /hy
/e ha#e ha! global cooling for the past 35 years, but also assure that cool temperatures /ill continue for se#eral more !eca!es.
No warming an$ no impact
Ta!lor P (James, -enior 'ello/ )n#. Policy g Heartlan! nstitute, %aples Daily %e/s, 7Guest Commentary9 Global /arming8,
http9::///.naplesne/s.com:ne/s:455<:;an:5K:guestJcommentaryJglobalJ/arming:?
n a pair of recent columns claiming humans are causing a globalJ/arming crisis, &en &o#a !isparages mere 7assertions8 /hile saying people nee! to rely
on 7obser#able, measurable facts.8 ,hile &o#aQs concern about )arthQs climate is a!mirable, he shoul! follo/ his o/n a!#ice regar!ing assertions #ersus
facts. &o#a asserts )arth has a 7rising fe#er.8 .et the fact is that glo%al temperat&res are &n&s&all! cool. For most of the
past 15555 !ears temperat&res ha+e %een 1.5 to 9.5 $egrees Celsi&s warmer than the! are
to$a!. The 5.D $egree rise in temperat&res $&ring the =5th cent&r! occ&rre$ from the %aseline
of the little ice age which saw the col$est glo%al temperat&res $&ring the past 15555 !ears. )arth
has a 7rising fe#er8 only if /e preten! the little ice age /as 7normal8 an! ignore )arthQs longJterm temperature facts. &o#a asserts 7the loss of sea ice in
the Arctic is threatening the sur#i#al of polar bears.8 .et the fact is that polar bear numbers ha#e !ouble! since the 3<O5s. Moreo#er, Antarctic
sea ice is growing an$ has %een setting recor$s for m&ch of the past !ear. f 7global8 /arming is causing
rece!ing polar ice, then /hy is Antarctic sea ice setting gro/th recor!sU &o#a asserts 7measurements ... sho/ that the rise in global temperatures
matches @uite closely the increase in carbon !io*i!e.8 .et the fact is that solar scientists at Har#ar! an! other lea!ing uni#ersities ha#e publishe!
research in the /orl!Qs lea!ing scientific ;ournals sho/ing that temperat&res match solar o&tp&t m&ch more closel!
than car%on $io2i$e e+en in the =5th cent&r!. &o#a asserts that as a result of global /arming 7much of our crop lan! turns to
!esert.8 .et, the fact is that glo%al precipitation an$ glo%al soil moist&re ha+e increase$ $&ring the =5th
cent&r!, an! the -ahara Desert an! other !eserts aroun! the /orl! are in retreat. &o#a asserts /e run the ris( of a breaching a 7tipping point8 or a
7greenhouse cliff /here the global climate shifts too rapi!ly for us to protect oursel#es from its !rastic effects.8 .et, the fact is that in a recent
s&r+e! of more than 655 climate scientists from aro&n$ the worl$ less than half agree$ that
Aass&ming climate change will occ&r it will occ&r so s&$$enl! that a lac# of preparation co&l$
res&lt in $e+astation of some areas of the worl$.8 &o#a asserts that in CaliforniaQs .osemite %ational Par( /armer
temperatures are allo/ing mice an! pine trees to li#e at higher altitu!es than a century ago. .et, the fact is that fossiliAe! trees e*ist at altitu!es abo#e the
current California tree line, sho/ing that temperatures /ere significantly /armer 3,555 years ago than to!ay. Plant an! animal species are migrating to
higher ele#ations only in comparison to the abnormally col! temperatures of the little ice age that en!e! ;ust o#er a century ago. 'or most of the past
35,555 years, /armer temperatures enable! mice an! trees to li#e at altitu!es significantly higher than is possible to!ay. GlobalJ/arming acti#ism is
long on unsubstantiate! assertions an! short on ob;ecti#e facts. Bnly by comparing to!ayQs temperatures to the abnormal col! of the little ice are I an!
by completely ignoring the /armer temperatures that pre!ominate! !uring most of the past 35,555 years I can globalJ/arming acti#ists paint a picture
of a planet suffering a global /arming crisis. Moreo#er, so&n$ science has thrown col$ water on each an$ e+er! one
of the allege$ glo%al?warming crises s&ch as en$angere$ polar %ears melting ice caps etc.
allege$ to res&lt from glo%al warming.
No warming
/eisner 15 I former associate professor of inter!isciplinary stu!ies in economics, go#ernment, an! public policy, Co#enant. PhD, "ni#ersity of -t.
An!re/s (Cal#in, 'orget Global ,arming Mini ce Age May &e on ts ,ay, 34 January 4535, http9::///.rightsi!ene/s.com:45355334O366:energyJ
an!Jen#ironment:forgetJglobalJ/armingJminiJiceJageJmayJbeJonJitsJ/ay.html, AMiles? %ote 0 graph omitte!
1he "2Hs MailBnline !i! ;ust that this /ee( un!er the hea!line 1he mini ice age starts here. +ea! paragraphU M1he bitter /inter afflicting much of the
%orthern Hemisphere is only the start of a global tren! to/ar!s cooler /eather that is li(ely to last for 45 or K5 years, say some of
the /orl!Hs most eminent climate scientists.M Right. MailBnline reporter Da#i! Rose !oesnHt call them Mthe /orl!Hs lea!ing climate
s(eptics.M He calls them Msome of the /orl!Hs most eminent climate scientistsMJJan! he goes on to cite MMo;ib +atif, a lea!ing member of the
"%Hs ntergo#ernmental Panel on Climate Change (PCC?,M MAnastasios 1sonis, hea! of the "ni#ersity of ,isconsin Atmospheric
-ciences Group,M an! M,illiam Gray, emeritus Professor of Atmospheric -ciences at Colora!o -tate "ni#ersity.M Contrary to fears of
ine*orably !iminishing Arctic sea ice, Rose cites the ".-. %ational -no/ an! ce Data Center as reporting that MArctic
summer sea ice has increase! by 65<,555 s@uare miles, or 4= per cent, since 455P.M 1hough sno/Hs been unusual for most of the southern
half of the "nite! 2ing!om in recent !eca!es, the Mail publishe! the accompanying satellite photo of Great &ritain !uring the recent col! snap. 1he
islan! is essentially all co#ere! /ith sno/. Rose reporte! recor! lo/s as far south as CubaJJsomething can attest to, li#ing near Miami in south 'lori!a,
/here /e e*perience! subJfreeAing /eather o#er the /ee(en!. He @uote! 1sonis as saying that last /ee( >=L of the "nite! -tates /as co#ere! by sno/JJ
something that hasnHt happene! in se#eral !eca!es. An! the MHArctic oscillationHJJa /eather pattern that sees the !e#elopment of huge Hbloc(ingH
areas of high pressure in northern latitu!es, !ri#ing polar /in!s far to the south . . . is at its strongest for at least =5 years. As a result, the
;etstreamJJthe highJaltitu!e /in! that circles the globe from /est to east an! normally pushes a series of /et but mil! Atlantic lo/s
across &ritainJJis currently running not o#er the )nglish Channel but the -trait of Gibraltar.M Conse@uently, most of the %orthern
Hemisphere is much col!er this /inter than itHs been in !eca!esJJan! the -outhern Hemisphere is cooler, too. Accor!ing to Rose, +atif,
1sonis, an! other scientists attribute the col! shift primarily to a shift in the /orl!Hs !ominant ocean circulationsJJthe
Pacific Deca!al Bscillation an! the Atlantic Multi!eca!al BscillationJJfrom a /arm phase to a cool phase, something that happens
about e#ery 45 to K5 years. M1he scientistsH pre!ictions also un!ermine the stan!ar! climate computer mo!els, /hich
assert that the /arming of the )arth since 3<55 has been !ri#en solely by manJma!e greenhouse gas emissions an! /ill continue as
long as carbon !io*i!e le#els rise. 1hey say that their research sho/s that much of the /arming /as cause! by oceanic cycles /hen they
/ere in a H/arm mo!eH as oppose! to the present Hcol! mo!eH.M 1hatHs a point ma!e by Dr. Roy ,. -pencer in the science chapter of the Corn/all
AllianceHs ne/ !ocument A Rene/e! Call to 1ruth, Pru!ence, an! Protection of the Poor9 An )#angelical )*amination of the 1heology, -cience, an!
)conomics of Global ,arming an! illustrate! in the graph belo/. MA significant share of the /arming /e sa/ from 3<O5 to 4555 an!
at earlier perio!s in the 45th Century /as !ue to these cycles,M sai! +atif, Mperhaps as much as >5 per cent. 1hey ha#e no/ gone into
re#erse, so /inters li(e this one /ill become much more li(ely. -ummers /ill also probably be cooler, an! all this may /ell last t/o !eca!es or longer.
1he e*treme retreats that /e ha#e seen in glaciers an! sea ice /ill come to a halt. 'or the time being, global /arming has pause!, an!
there may /ell be some cooling.M 1sonis also belie#es that the ocean current cycles !ominate! global climate change in the 45th century, inclu!ing the
postJ3<P5s, the perio! many point to as !ri#en by human greenhouse gas emissions, but he !oesnHt #enture to attribute specific percentages to the
natural an! human causes. M !o not belie#e in catastrophe theories,M Rose @uote! him as saying. MManJma!e /arming is
balance! by the natural cycles, an! !o not trust the computer mo!els /hich state that if CB4 reaches a particular le#el then temperatures
an! sea le#els /ill rise by a gi#en amount. 1hese mo!els cannot be truste! to pre!ict the /eather for a /ee(, yet they are
running them to gi#e rea!ings for 355 years.M Gray /ent farther9 MMost of the rise in temperature from the -e#enties to the
%ineties /as natural. Cery little /as !o/n to CB4JJin my #ie/, as little as fi#e to ten per cent.M Gray, 1sonis, an! +atif all agree! that the
fin!ings about the ocean currents un!ermine! the cre!ibility of the computer climate mo!els on /hich the PCC an! other alarmists
rely.
Cooling is coming now , it-s fast an$ o&tweighs the effects of warming
Carlin 11 , PhD in Economics from MIT
Alan Carlin, PhD in )conomics, former Director g )PA an! fello/ g RA%D, KJ4533, 7 A Multi!isciplinary, -cienceJ&ase! Approach to the )conomics of
Climate Change,8 nternational Journal of )n#ironmental Research an! Public Health, Col. O
Bn the contrary, the e#i!ence is that !uring interglacial perio!s o#er the last K million years the ris(s are on the
temperature !o/nsi!e, not the upsi!e. As /e approach the point /here the Holocene has reache! the
historical age /hen a ne/ ice age has repeate!ly starte! in past glacial cycles, this appears li(ely to be the
only CAG, effect that man(in! shoul! currently reasonably be concerne! about. )arth is currently in an
interglacial perio! @uite similar to others before an! after each of the glacial perio!s that )arth has
e*perience! o#er the last K million years. During these interglacial perio!s there is currently no (no/n case /here global
temperatures su!!enly an! !ramatically /arme! abo#e interglacial temperatures, such as /e are no/ e*periencing, to #ery much /armer
temperatures. 1here ha#e, of course, been interglacial perio!s that ha#e e*perience! slightly higher temperatures, but none that /e (no/ of that
after 35,555 years e*perience! a su!!en catastrophic further increase in global temperatures. 1he point here is that there !oes not appear
to be instability to/ar!s much /armer temperatures !uring interglacial perio!s. 1here is rather instability
to/ar!s much col$er temperat&res , particularly !uring the later stages of interglacial perio!s . n fact,
)arth has repeate!ly entere! ne/ ice ages about e#ery 355,555 years !uring recent cycles, an! interglacial
perio!s ha#e laste! about 35,555 years. ,e are currently #ery close to the 35,555 year mar( for the current
interglacial perio!. -o if history is any gui!e, the main worr! shoul! be that of entering a ne/ ice age, /ith its
gro/ing ice sheets, that /oul! pro%a%l! wipe o&t ci+ili;ation in the temperate regions of the %orthern HemisphereI
not global /arming. 1he economic !amages from a ne/ ice age /oul! in!ee! be large, an! almost certainly catastrophic.
"nfortunately, it is +er! li#el! to occur sooner or later.
No scientific s&pport for glo%al warming h!pothesis
Armstong 11 0 Professor g " ,harton -chool
J. -cott Armstrong, Professor of Mar(eting specialiAing in forecasting technology, KJK3J4533, 7Climate Change Policy ssues,8 CS Congressional
1estimony, +e*is
Global /arming alarmists ha#e use! improper proce!ures an!, most importantly, ha#e #iolate! the general
scientific principles of ob;ecti#ity an! full !isclosure. 1hey also fail to correct errors or to cite rele#ant
literature that reaches conclusion that are unfa#orable. 1hey also ha#e been !eleting information from ,i(ipe!ia
that is unfa#orable to the alarmistsH #ie/point (e.g., my entry has been fre@uently re#ise! by them?. 1hese !epartures from
the scientific metho! are apparently intentional. -ome alarmists claim that there is no nee! for them to follo/ scientific principles. 'or
e*ample, the late -tanfor! "ni#ersity biology professor -tephen -chnei!er sai!, Meach of us has to !eci!e /hat is the right balance bet/een being
effecti#e an! being honest.M He also sai! M/e ha#e to offer up scary scenariosM (Bctober 3<O<, Disco#er MagaAine inter#ie/?. nterestingly, -chnei!er
ha! been a lea!er in the 3<P5s mo#ement to get the go#ernment to ta(e action to pre#ent global cooling. ClimateGate also !ocumente!
many #iolations of ob;ecti#ity an! full !isclosure committe! by some of the climate e*perts that /ere in one /ay or
another associate! /ith the PCC. 1he alarmistsH lac( of interest in scientific forecasting proce!ures an! the
e#i!ence from opinion polls (Pe/ Research Center 455O? ha#e le! us to conclu!e that global /arming is a political
mo#ement in the ".-. an! else/here (2laus 455<?. t is a pro!uct of a$+ocac! , rather than of the scientific
testing of multiple hypotheses .
Not Anthropogenic
4arming-s not anthropogenic
Singer L, !istinguishe! research professor at George Mason an! A#ery, !irector of the Center for Global 'oo! ssues at the Hu!son nstitute (-.
're!, Dennis 1, 7"nstoppable Global ,arming9 )#ery 3,>55 .ears8 Pages PJO.
1he )arth has recently been /arming. 1his is beyon! !oubt. t has /arme! slo/ly an! erraticallyJfor a total of about 5.O !egrees CelsiusJsince 3O>5. t
ha! one surge of /arming from 3O>5 to 3OP5 an! another from 3<45 to 3<65. Ho/e#er, /hen /e correct the thermometer recor!s for the effects of
gro/ing urban heat islan!s an! /i!esprea! intensification of lan! use, an! for the recently !ocumente! cooling of the Antarctic continent o#er the past
thirty years, o#erall /orl! temperatures to!ay are only mo!estly /armer than they /ere in 3<65, !espite a ma;or
increase in human CB4 emissions. 1he real @uestion is not /hether the )arth is /arming but /hy an! by ho/
much. ,e ha#e a large faction of intensely intereste! persons /ho say the /arming is manJma!e, an! !angerous. 1hey say it is !ri#en
by releases of greenhouse gases such as CB4 from po/er plants an! autos, an! methane from rice pa!!ies an! cattle her!s. 1he acti#ists tell us that
mo!ern society /ill !estroy the planetR that unless /e ra!ically change human energy pro!uction an! consumption, the globe /ill become too /arm for
farming an! the sur#i#al of /il! species. 1hey /arn that the polar ice caps coul! melt, raising sea le#els an! floo!ing many of the /orl!Hs most important
cities an! farming regions. Ho/e#er, they !onHt ha#e much e#i!ence to support their positionJonly (3. the fact that the )arth is /arming, (4. a
theory that !oesnHt e*plain the /arming of the past 3>5 years #ery /ell, an! (K. some un#erifie! computer mo!els. Moreo#er, their cre!ibility is
seriously /ea(ene! by the fact that many of them ha#e long belie#e! mo!ern technology shoul! be !iscar!e!
/hether the )arth is /arming too fast or not at all. Many scientists J though by no means allJ agree that increase! CB4 emissions
coul! be !angerous. Ho/e#er, polls of climateJ@ualifie! scientist sho/ that many !oubt the scary pre!ictions of the global computer mo!els. 1his boo(
cites the /or( of many hun!re!s of researchers, authors, an! coauthors /hose /or( testifies to the 3,>55Jyear cycle. 1here is no Mscientific
consensus,M as global /arming a!#ocates often claim. %or is consensus important to science. Galileo may ha#e been
the only man of his !ay /ho belie#e! the )arth re#ol#e! aroun! the sun, but he /as right^ -cience is the process of !e#eloping theories an! testing them
against obser#ations until they are pro#en true or false. f /e can fin! proof, not ;ust that the )arth is /arming, but that it is
/arming to !angerous le#els !ue to humanJemitte! greenhouse gases, public policy /ill then ha#e to e#aluate
such potential reme!ies as banning autos an! air con!itioners. -o far, /e ha#e no such e#i!ence. f the
/arming is natural an! unstoppable, then public policy must focus instea! on a!aptationsJsuch as more efficient air
con!itioning an! buil!ing !i(es aroun! lo/Jlying areas li(e &angla!esh. ,e ha#e the /arming. %o/ /e must ascertain its cause.
/est $ata pro+es the greenho&se theor! cannot e2plain the c&rrent warming tren$s
Singer L !istinguishe! research professor at George Mason an! A#ery, !irector of the Center for Global 'oo! ssues at the Hu!son nstitute (-.
're!, Dennis 1, 7"nstoppable Global ,arming9 )#ery 3,>55 .ears8 Pages 35J33.
+etHs @uic(ly re#ie/ the shortcomings of the Greenhouse 1heory for e*plaining (no/n realities. 'irst, an! most ob#ious. CB4 changes !o not
account for the highly #ariable climate /e (no/ the )arth has recently ha!, inclu!ing the Roman ,arming, the
Dar( Ages, the Me!ie#al ,arming, an! the +ittle ce Age. Ho/e#er, these #ariations fit into the ,>55Jyear
cycle #ery /ell. -econ!, the Greenhouse 1heory !oes not e*plain recent temperature changes. Most of the current /arming
occurre! before 3<65. before there /as much humanJgenerate! CB4 in the air. After 3<65, temperatures !ecline! until 3<P> or so, !espite a huge surge in
in!ustrial CB4 !uring that perio!. 1hese e#ents run counter to the CB4 theory. but they are in accor! /ith the 3,>55Jyear cycle. 1hir!, the early an!
suppose!ly most po/erful increases in atmospheric CB4 ha#e not pro!uce! the frightening planetary
o#erheating that the theory an! climate mo!els tol! us to e*pect. ,e must !iscount future increments of CB4
in the atmosphere. because each increment of CB4 increase pro!uces less /arming than the unit before it. 1he
amounts of CB4 alrea!y a!!e! to the atmosphere must alrea!y ha#e Muse! upM muchJan! perhaps mostJof CB4Hs forcing
capability. 'ourth, /e must !iscount the MofficialM temperature recor! to reflect the increase! siAe an! intensity
of to!ayHs urban heat islan!s, /here most of the official thermometers are locate!. ,e must ta(e account of the
changes in rural lan! use (forests cleare! for farming an! pastures, more intensi#e ro/Jcrop an! irrigate! farming? that affect soil
moisture an! temperatures. ,hen meteorological e*perts reconstructe! ".-. official temperatures M/ithout cities
an! cropsM J using more accurate !ata from satellites an! highJaltitu!e /eather balloonsIabout half of the
recent 7official8 /arming !isappeare!. 'ifth, the )arthQs surface thermometers ha#e recently /arme! faster than
the temperature rea!ings in the lo/er atmosphere up to K5,555 feet. yet the Greenhouse 1heory says that CB4
/ill /arm the lo/er atmosphere first, an! then the atmospheric heat /ill ra!iate to the )arthHs surface. 1his is
not happening. 'igure 3.3 sho/s the #ery mo!erate tren! in the satellite rea!ings o#er the past t/o !eca!es, totaling 5.34> !egrees Celsius per
!eca!e. 1he shortJterm temperature spi(e in 3<<O /as one of the strongest )l %ino e#ents in recent centuries, but its effect @uic(ly !issipate!, as al/ays
happens /ith )l %inos. A reconstruction of /eatherJballoon temperature rea!ings at t/o meters abo#e the )arthHs surface (3<P<J3<<=. sho/s a tren!
increase of only 5.53> !egree Celsius per !eca!eHH %or can /e pro;ect e#en that slo/ increase o#er the coming centuries, since the ,>55Jyear cycles ha#e
often achie#e! half of their total /arming in their first fe/ !eca!es, follo/e! by erratic /armings an! coolings li(e those /eH#e recor!e! since 3<45.
-i*th, CB4 for at least 465,555 years has been a lagging in!icator of global /arming, not a causal factor. ,ithin the
last 3> years, the ice cores ha#e re#eale! that temperatures an! CB4 le#els ha#e trac(e! closely together !uring
the /armings after each of )arthHs last three ice age glaciations. Ho/e#er, the CB4 changes ha#e lagge! about
O55 years behin! the temperature changes. Global /arming has pro!uce! more CB4, rather than more CB4
pro!ucing global /arming. 1his accor!s /ith the reality that the oceans hol! the #ast ma;ority of the planetHs carbon,
an! the la/s of physics let col! oceans hol! more CB4 gas than /arm oceans. -e#enth, the Greenhouse 1heory
pre!icts that CB4J!ri#en /arming of the )arthHs surface /ill start, an! be strongest, in the %orth an! -outh
Polar regions, 1his is not happening either, A broa!ly scattere! set of meteorological stations an! ocean buoys sho/ that temperature
rea!ings in the Arctic, Greenlan!, an! the seas aroun! them are col!er to!ay than in the 3<K5s. Alas(a has been /arming, but researchers say this is !ue
to the recent /arming of the Pacific Deca!al Bscillation (PDB?, not a broa!er Arctic /arming pattern. 1he t/enty to thirty year cycle of the
PDB seems to ha#e recently re#erse! again, so Alas(a may no/ cool /ith the rest of the Arctic. n the Antarctic,
only the thin finger of the Antarctic Peninsula, /hich ;uts up to/ar! Argentina (an! the e@uator? has been
/arming. 1emperatures o#er the other <O percent of the Antarctic continent ha#e been !eclining slo/ly since
the 3<=5s, accor!ing to a broa! array of Antarctic surface stations an! satellite measurements. )ighth, the scary
pre!ictions of planetary o#erheating re@uire that the /arming effect of a!!itional CB4 be amplifie! by increase! /ater #apor in the atmosphere.
,arming /ill in!ee! lift more moisture from the oceans into the air. &ut /hat if the moister, /armer air increases the efficiency of rainfall, an! lea#es
the upper atmosphere as !ry, or e#en !ryer, than it /as beforeU ,e ha#e absolutely no e#i!ence to !emonstrate that the upper atmosphere is retaining
more /ater #apor to amplify the CB4, 1o the contrary, a team of researchers from %A-A an! M1 recently !isco#ere! a huge
#ertical heat #ent in the )arthHs atmosphere. t apparently increases the efficiency of rainfall /hen sea surface
temperatures rise abo#e 4Ol C. 1his effect seems to be big enough to #ent all the heat the mo!els pre!ict /oul!
be generate! by a !oubling of CB4.3=
Cow farts o+erwhelm C(=
Noam Mohr Coor$inator of the <ewish 3egetarians of North America =556 (7A %e/ Global ,arming
-trategy Ho/ )n#ironmentalists are B#erloo(ing Cegetarianism as the Most )ffecti#e 1ool Against Climate Change in Bur +ifetimes8
http9::///.earthsa#e.org:ne/s:earthsa#eFglobalF/armingFreport.p!f?
&y far the most important nonJCB4 greenhouse gas is methane, an! the number one source of methane
/orl!/i!e is animal agriculture.3PMethane is responsible for nearly as much global /arming as all other nonJ
CB4 greenhouse gases put together.3O Methane is 43 times more po/erful a greenhouse gas than CB4.3< ,hile
atmospheric concentrations of CB4 ha#e risen by about K3L since preJin!ustrial times, methane
concentrations ha#e more than !ouble!.45 ,hereas human sources of CB4 amount to ;ust KL of natural emissions, human sources
pro!uce one an! a half times as much methane as all natural sources.43 n fact, the effect of our methane emissions may be compoun!e! as methaneJ
in!uce! /arming in turn stimulates microbial !ecay of organic matter in /etlan!sIthe primary natural source of methane.44 ,ith methane
emissions causing nearly half of the planetQs humanJin!uce! /arming, methane re!uction must be a priority.
Methane is pro!uce! by a number of sources, inclu!ing coal mining an! lan!fillsIbut the number one source /orl!/i!e
is animal agriculture.4K Animal agriculture pro!uces more than 355 million tons of methane a year.46 An! this
source is on the rise9 global meat consumption has increase! fi#efol! in the past fifty years, an! sho/s little
sign of abating.4> About O>L of this methane is pro!uce! in the !igesti#e processes of li#estoc(,4= an! /hile a
single co/ releases a relati#ely small amount of methane,4P the collecti#e effect on the en#ironment of the
hun!re!s of millions of li#estoc( animals /orl!/i!e is enormous. An a!!itional 3>L of animal agricultural methane emissions
are release! from the massi#e 7lagoons8 use! to store untreate! farm animal /aste,4O an! alrea!y a target of en#ironmentalistsQ for their role as the
number one source of /ater pollution in the ".-.4<
4ATE' 4A'S
Cooperation
4ater forces cooperation not wars
4olf et al 5D (Aaron 1., Ph.D. in en#ironmental policy analysis, professor of geography in the Department of
Geosciences at Bregon -tate "ni#ersity, $A%D Anni(a 2ramer, -enior Pro;ect Manager for A!elphi, $A%D
Ale*an!er Carius, CoJ'oun!er an! Managing Director, A!elphi, $A%D Geoffrey D. Dabel(o, !irector of the
)n#ironmental Change an! -ecurity Program, the ,oo!ro/ ,ilson nternational Center for -cholars, July
455=, 7 ,ater Can &e a Path/ay to Peace, not ,ar,8 ,oo!ro/ ,ilson nternational Center for -cholars,
http9::///./ilsoncenter.org:sites:!efault:files:%a#igatingPeacessue3.p!f, Hensel?
1hese apocalyptic /arnings fly in the face of history9 no nations ha+e gone to war specifically o+er water
reso&rces for thousan!s of years. nternational /ater !isputesIe#en among fierce enemiesIare resol#e! peacefully, e#en as
conflicts erupt o#er other issues. n fact, instances of cooperation bet/een riparian nations outnumbere! conflicts by more
than t/o to one bet/een 3<6> an! 3<<<. ,hyU &ecause water is so important, nations cannot affor! to fight o#er
it. nstea!, /ater fuels greater inter!epen!ence. &y coming together to ;ointly manage their share! /ater
resources, countries can buil! trust an! pre#ent conflict. ,ater can be a negotiating tool, too9 it can offer a
communication lifeline connecting countries in the mi!st of crisis. 1hus, by crying 7/ater /ars,8 !oomsayers ignore a
promising /ay to help pre#ent /ar9 cooperati#e /ater resources management.
Cooperation is sooooooo m&ch more li#el!
4olf et al 5D (Aaron 1., Ph.D. in en#ironmental policy analysis, professor of geography in the Department of
Geosciences at Bregon -tate "ni#ersity, $A%D Anni(a 2ramer, -enior Pro;ect Manager for A!elphi, $A%D
Ale*an!er Carius, CoJ'oun!er an! Managing Director, A!elphi, $A%D Geoffrey D. Dabel(o, !irector of the
)n#ironmental Change an! -ecurity Program, the ,oo!ro/ ,ilson nternational Center for -cholars, July
455=, 7 ,ater Can &e a Path/ay to Peace, not ,ar,8 ,oo!ro/ ,ilson nternational Center for -cholars,
http9::///./ilsoncenter.org:sites:!efault:files:%a#igatingPeacessue3.p!f, Hensel?
Contrary to recei#e! /is!om, e#i!ence sho/s this inter!epen!ence !oes not lea! to /ar. Researchers at Bregon -tate "ni#ersity
compile! a !ataset of e#ery reporte! interaction (conflicti#e or cooperati#e? bet/een t/o or more nations that /as
!ri#en by /ater in the last half century (see chart?. 1hey foun! that the rate of cooperation o+erwhelms the
inci$ence of ac&te conflict. n the last >5 years, only KP !isputes in#ol#e! #iolence, an! K5 of those occurre! bet/een srael an! one of its
neighbors. Butsi!e of the Mi!!le )ast, researchers foun! only > #iolent e#ents /hile 3>P treaties /ere negotiate! an! signe!. 1he total number of
/aterJrelate! e#ents bet/een nations also fa+ors cooperation9 the 3,44O cooperati#e e#ents !/arf the >5P conflictJrelate!
e#ents. Despite the fiery rhetoric of politiciansIaime! more often at their o/n constituencies than at the enemyImost actions
ta(en o#er /ater are mil!. Bf all the e#ents, =4 percent are #erbal, an! more than t/oJthir!s of these /ere not official statements.
Empirics pro+e , water is &ni.&e , ca&ses cooperation
4olf et al 5D (Aaron 1., Ph.D. in en#ironmental policy analysis, professor of geography in the Department of
Geosciences at Bregon -tate "ni#ersity, $A%D Anni(a 2ramer, -enior Pro;ect Manager for A!elphi, $A%D
Ale*an!er Carius, CoJ'oun!er an! Managing Director, A!elphi, $A%D Geoffrey D. Dabel(o, !irector of the
)n#ironmental Change an! -ecurity Program, the ,oo!ro/ ,ilson nternational Center for -cholars, July
455=, 7 ,ater Can &e a Path/ay to Peace, not ,ar,8 ,oo!ro/ ,ilson nternational Center for -cholars,
http9::///./ilsoncenter.org:sites:!efault:files:%a#igatingPeacessue3.p!f, Hensel?
-imply put, /ater is a greater path/ay to peace than conflict in the /orl!Qs international ri#er basins. nternational
cooperation aroun! /ater has a long an$ s&ccessf&l histor! R some of the /orl!Qs most #ociferous enemies
ha#e negotiate! /ater agreements. 1he institutions they ha#e create! are resilient, e#en /hen relations are straine!. 1he
Me(ong Committee, for e*ample, establishe! by Cambo!ia, +aos, 1hailan!, an! Cietnam in 3<>P, e*change! !ata an! information on the ri#er
basin throughout the Cietnam ,ar. srael an! Jor!an hel! secret 7picnic table8 tal(s to manage the Jor!an Ri#er starting in
3<>K, e#en though they /ere officially at /ar from 3<6O until the 3<<6 treaty. 1he n!us Ri#er Commission sur#i#e! t/o ma;or /ars bet/een
n!ia an! Pa(istan. An! all 35 %ile &asin riparian countries are currently in#ol#e! in senior go#ernment0le#el
negotiations to !e#elop the basin cooperati#ely, !espite the #erbal battles con!ucte! in the me!ia. Riparians /ill en!ure
such tough, protracte! negotiations to ensure access to this essential resource an! its economic an! social benefits.
-outhern African countries signe! a number of ri#er basin agreements /hile the region /as embroile! in a series of /ars in the
3<P5s an! 3<O5s, inclu!ing the 7peopleQs /ar8 in -outh Africa an! ci#il /ars in MoAambi@ue an! Angola. 1hese comple* negotiations
pro!uce! rare moments of peacef&l cooperation . %o/ that most of the /ars an! the aparthei! era ha#e en!e!, /ater management
forms one of the foun!ations for cooperation in the region, pro!ucing one of the first protocols signe! /ithin the -outhern African De#elopment
Community (-ADC?.
No 4ater 4ars
No 4ater 4ars
3ictor 5L (Da#i! G., Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts nstitute of 1echnology, professor at
the Gra!uate -chool of nternational Relations an! Pacific -tu!ies at the "ni#ersity of California, -an Diego,
%o#ember:December 455P, 7,hat Resource ,arsU,8 1he %ational nterest, ssue <4R pg. 6O, Hensel?
,hile there are many reasons to fear global /arming, the ris( that such !angers coul! cause #iolent conflict ran(s e*tremely lo/ on the list because it is
highly unli(ely to materialiAe. Despite !eca!es of /arnings about /ater /ars, /hat is stri(ing is that water wars $on7t happenJusually
because countries that share /ater resources ha#e a lot more at sta(e an! arme! conflict rarely fi*es the
problem. -ome analysts ha#e pointe! to conflicts o#er resources, inclu!ing /ater an! #aluable lan!, as a cause in the R/an!an genoci!e, for e*ample.
Recently, the "% secretaryJgeneral suggeste! that climate change /as alrea!y e*acerbating the conflicts in -u!an. &ut none of these suppose!
causal chains stay lin(e! un!er close scrutinyJthe conflicts o#er resources are usually symptomatic of !eeper
failures in go#ernance an! other primal forces for conflicts, such as ethnic tensions, income ine@ualities an!
other unsettle! grie#ances. Climate is ;ust one of many factors that contribute to tension. 1he same is true for scenarios of climate refugees,
/here the moni(er MclimateM con#eniently obscures the !eeper causal forces.
4T( C'EDI/I)ITI
No 4ar
The 4T( $oes not sol+e warGit-s 8&st another for&m for great power competition
>aw#ins 9 (,illiam, -enior 'ello/ for %ational -ecurity -tu!ies at the ".-. &usiness an! n!ustry Council,
7-uccessfully Rebuil!ing ra@ Re@uires Re;ection of HGlobaliAation,Q8 American )conomic Alert, April 4K,
http9::///.americaneconomicalert.org:#ie/Fart.aspUPro!FDYO5P?:: CG
1he &ush A!ministration has goo! reasons not to trust certain other members of the "% -ecurity Council on
ra@. As ,ashington a!ministers the post/ar reconstruction effort, it must structure rules of origin regulations in line /ith geopolitics at both the
prime an! subJcontractor le#els. f foreign go#ernments an! corporations are free to act against American interests /ithout cost to themsel#es, ho/ can
they be !eterre! from !oing so againU 1he !oor must be slamme! on them, har!. )uropean "nion 1ra!e Minister Pascal +amy of 'rance has
raise! the @uestion of /hether a ".-.Jle! reconstruction effort might #iolate ,1B rules of nonJ!iscrimination.
1his is another attempt by the )" to e*pan! the ,1B into a tool of great po/er !iplomacy. Multilateral
agencies are ceasing to be consensual bo!ies promoting cooperation an! simply becoming ne/ arenas for
political struggle 0 ;ust as any realist shoul! e*pect.
)ow
4T( is $ea$
Coo#e P (-hamus, tra!e unionist, social ser#ice /or(er, /riter for ,or(ers Action, fre@uent contributor to
Global Research, 333J3>J455< 7,hat s At -ta(e ,ith 'ree 1ra!e8, http9::///.globalresearch.ca:in!e*.phpU
conte*tY#ie/ArticleWco!eYCBB455<333>Warticle!Y3=5<=?:: CG
n the ten years since the ,orl! 1ra!e BrganiAation (,1B? protests in -eattle, global opposition to free tra!e an! 7globaliAation8 has e*plo!e!. 1he
general public no/ has a basic un!erstan!ing of ho/ the /orl! economy /or(s V against them9 companies
scour the globe searching for sla#e /ages, /hich help push !o/n /ages in 7!e#elope!8 countriesR any
regulation that re!uces profits I en#ironmental, financial, labor, etc. I is !estroye! or ignore!. 1he t/o focal points
of the antiJglobaliAation mo#ement ha#e been !ismantling of the ,1B an! free tra!e agreementsR both legitimate targets. Ho/e#er, /hat happens if
both goals are accomplishe!U Mission Accomplishe!U 1he ob#ious ans/er is no. Corporations /ill continue to push for the abo#e
antiJ/or(er policies, /hether or not the ,1B continues to e*ist or if free tra!e agreements stop. Proof of this can be seen in the present
con!ition of the ,1B, an organiAation that, for all intents an! purposes, is !ea! I ha#ing collapse! un!er its o/n /eight. 1he
7Doha8 roun! of the ,1B has been eight years in the ma(ing, /ith little sign of a !eal emerging. Po/erful
corporations in !ifferent countries are a!#ocating a more 7in!epen!ent8 approach to tra!eR they #ie/ the
corporateJrun ,1B as too !emocratic, an! /oul! rather go it alone on the global mar(et place.
***(T>E' CA'DS
China?Taiwan 4ar Impact
China?Taiwan war $raws in the *S???that escalates
>arper 11 July 4533, $+ieutenant Comman!er Matthe/ Harper9 "- %a#y, 7Chinese Missiles an! the ,almart 'actor,8
http9::///.usni.org:magaAines:procee!ings:4533J5P:chineseJmissilesJan!J/almartJfactor, AJ
A bloc(a!e or in#asion of 1ai/an li(ely /oul! arise from a regional !iplomatic or military inci!ent, or a return to
the policies of former 1ai/anese Presi!ent Chen -hui &ian. ,hile a !eclaration of in$epen$ence %! Taiwan is wi$el!
seen as the catal!st for a Sino?American conflict , an unforeseen episo!e bet/een China an! 1ai/an is
perhaps ;ust as li(ely to escalate into an international inci$ent . As e#i!ent in the %o#ember 4535 !iplomatic
confrontation bet/een China an! Japan after a Chinese fishing #essel ramme! into a Japanese coast guar! ship, relati#ely minor episo!es in this region
can @uic(ly escalate into international crises. n the e#ent of such escalation, !omestic tensions in both China an! 1ai/an /oul!
fuel !iplomatic rhetoric, pre#enting either go#ernment from bac(ing !o/n. As -usan -hir(, a former !eputy assistant
secretary of -tate, has /ritten, 7it is uni#ersally belie#e! in China that the Chinese Communist Party /oul! fall if it
allo/e! 1ai/an to become in!epen!ent /ithout putting up a fight.8 33 1herefore, the Chinese /oul! ha#e to ma(e an o#ert
statement an! con#ey their resol#e to pre#ent a unilateral !eclaration of in!epen!ence emanating from 1ai/an. Bne /ay to sho/ such resol#e
/oul! be to announce increase! rea!iness of Chinese roc(et forces, an! preparations to put PeopleQs +iberation
Army %a#y surface ships an! submarines to sea. 1his /oul! !emonstrate the seriousness of the military threat
to 1ai/an an! ma(e a clear statement to a !omestic au!ience that only China will $eci$e the fate of
Taiwan . 1he " nite! -tates /oul! respon! in (in! militarily, if for no other reason than to ens&re an a$e.&ate
$eterrence post&re . nternational economic mar(ets /oul! /atch these e#ents closely, an! any
announcement of military acti#ities /oul! set off a $ownwar$ spiral in the international stoc#
mar#ets. &oth Apple an! ,almart, /hich recei#e most, if not all of their pro!uction from China, /oul! see their stoc( prices plummet. Although a
ma;ority of Americans !o not /atch the stoc( mar(et regularly, appro*imately >5 percent of the ".-. population o/ns stoc(s either outright or through
mutual fun!s an! 6532s. Companies such as Apple, ,almart, an! hun!re!s of others are hea#ily in#este! in China, 1ai/an, an! the rest of the ,estern
Pacific. 1he resulting !i#e in the stoc( mar(et /oul! ma(e Americans acutely a/are of ;ust ho/ connecte! their
financial well?%eing is lin#e$ to China an$ Taiwan . As tensions mount, it is not har! to imagine a lone
comman!er ma(ing a rash !ecision that escalates the situation. n response to such an act, or out of a nee! to please a !omestic
au!ience, either China or 1ai/an might pursue a military option. f e#ents continue to spiral, Chinese lea!ership
/oul! feel they ha#e no choice but to ta(e steps to ensure 1ai/an remaine! part of Bne China, thus ensuring the
Communist Party remaine! in po/er. n this scenario, China /oul! !eclare a maritimeJ an! airJinspection Aone (or to the rest of
the /orl!, a bloc(a!e? aroun! 1ai/an. 1he ".-. go#ernment /oul! not be immune to the nationalist pressures
confronting the Chinese Communist Party. RightJ/ing bloggers an! political pressure groups /oul! /a#e the 1ai/an
Relations Act (regar!less of /hat it says? an! use this opportunity to confront China an! protect ".-. hegemony. 1he
American political establishment /oul! not allo/ China to forcibly coerce a multiparty !emocracy to ben! to its /ill, an! in the /orstJcase scenario,
".-. political pressures an! the nee! to reassure allies /oul! force a retaliator! tra$e em%argo . &oth Chinese
an! ".- actions /oul! significantly impact seagoing an! airborne tra!e in the #icinity of China, 1ai/an, -outh
2orea, Japan, an! the -trait of Malacca. )#en /ithout a formal bloc(a!e, the ci#ilian response to this scenario
/oul! be the same. Bnce a threat of a military stri(e against 1ai/an became a possibility, or if Chinese
submarines /ere to put to sea in large numbers to enforce a bloc(a!e, commercial shipping in the area /oul!
!rop off !ramatically of its o/n accor!. The impact to the worl$ econom! wo&l$ %e instantaneo&s .
Apple, along /ith other technology firms that rely on China, /oul! face !isaster. 'o*conn coul! not be e*pecte! to continue pro!uction, e#en if it /ere
someho/ able to get to its components !uring the crisis. As a 1ai/anese company, 'o*conn /oul! ha#e no room to maneu#er. ,ithin !ays, if not hours,
half of the /orl!Qs supply of consumer an! business electronics /oul! !ry up. ,almart, e#en more broa!ly reflecti#e of the /i!er ".-. economy, /oul!
fare little better. n the era of 7;ustJinJtime logistics,8 /hen shipping companies act as ,almartQs /arehouse, it only /oul! be a fe/ !ays before the
"nite! -tates /oul! start seeing eerily empty shel#es, not only at ,almart but at other stores across the country. Companies in the Do/ Jones n!ustrial
A#erage that are !epen!ent on sales an! gro/th in ChinaIinclu!ing Alcoa, Caterpillar, General )lectric, McDonal!Qs, an! &oeing, to name a fe/I/oul!
see huge losses. 1he technologyJhea#y %A-DAS companies /oul! lose e#en more of their stoc(Jmar(et #alue. 1his scenario is not meant to
be a scare tactic, an! it is not base! on the fear of a militarily capable China. t simply represents the reality in
/hich /e li#e. 1he #ital economic lin(s bet/een the "nite! -tates an! China mean that e#en the buil!up to a
militar! conflict wo&l$ ha+e $ire effects . 1he " nite! -tates shoul! be alarme! about 7Chinese strategic
/ritings, /hich often e*press consi!erable confi!ence that China can manage strategic escalation in measure!
increments /ith a high !egree of certainty.8 34 Conflict with China wo&l$ not %e an isolate$ or limite$
affair . n any type of -inoJAmerican /ar scenario there shoul! be no e*pectation that political lea!ers coul!
manage the economic fallout. /oth si$es an$ the entire worl$ econom! wo&l$ %e $e+astate$ %! the
economic conse.&ences an$ the ramifications wo&l$ affect all facets of *.S. societ!.
In$o?Pa# 4ar Impact
In$o?Pa# war ca&ses e2tinction
Q&wait Times 1= 6:4>, 7Global famine if Pa(istan, n!ia unleash their nu(es 0 [+imite!Q nuclear /ar /oul! cause climate !isruptions,8
http9::ne/s.(u/aittimes.net:4534:56:4>:globalJfamineJifJpa(istanJin!iaJunleashJtheirJnu(esJlimite!JnuclearJ/arJ/oul!JcauseJclimateJ!isruptions:,
AJ
CHCAGB9 More than a billion people /orl!/i!e coul! star#e if n!ia an! Pa(istan unleash nuclear /eapons
because e+en a Ulimite$- n&clear war wo&l$ ca&se ma8or climate $isr&ptions , a stu!y publishe! 1ues!ay
/arne!. n a!!ition to clou!s of ra!iation /hich coul! contaminate farmlan! far from the center of the blasts, the
stu!y foun! soot release! into the atmosphere /oul! $e+astate crop !iel$s %! cooling glo%al
temperat&res an$ re$&cing rainfall worl$wi$e. 1he stu!y pro#i!es har! !ata to bac( up !ire /arnings of the
globalJan! uninten!e!Jconse@uences of nuclear /eapons, sai! author Dr ra Helfan! of the nternational Physicians for the
Pre#ention of %uclear ,ar. 7It is not 8&st the arsenals of the *S an$ '&ssia that pose a threat to the whole
worl$,8 Helfan! sai!. 7)#en these smaller arsenal pose an e2istential threat to o&r ci+ili;ation , if not to our
species. t /oul! certainl! en$ mo$ern societ! as we #now it .8 1he stu!y, set to be publishe! in the peerJre#ie/e!
;ournal Climate Change, /as release! at the ,orl! -ummit of %obel Peace +aureates in Chicago. t foun! that corn pro!uction in the
"nite! -tates /oul! !ecline by an a#erage of 35 percent for an entire !eca!e an! soybean pro!uction /oul! !rop
by about 35 percent /ith the most se#ere !ecline occurring fi#e years after the nuclear /ar. t also !etermine!
that rice pro!uction in China /oul! !rop by an a#erage of 43 percent of the first four years an! 35 percent ne*t si* years.
-ignificant losses /oul! also li(ely occur /ith other crops an! in other countries, Helfan! sai! in an inter#ie/ on the
si!elines of the summit. An! the actual crop losses coul! be much /orse than pre!icte! since the conser#ati#e mo!el
!i! not account for increases in "C light an! the li(elihoo! that global cooling /oul! also result in su!!en,
cropJ(illing frosts. 7)#en /ith /hat /e are able to sho/, the conse@uences for human nutrition an! human life are really
profoun!,8 Helfan! sai!. 1he resulting increase in foo! prices an! agricultural shortfalls /oul! almost certainly
lea! to panic an$ hoar$ing on an international scale , further re!ucing access to foo!. Gi#en that some
<4> million people /orl!/i!e alrea!y suffer from malnutrition accor!ing to the latest "% stu!y, the stu!y
foun! that mass famine !eaths /oul! li(ely be una#oi!able. 1hat /oul! further !eepen social unrest an! coul!
lea! to arme! conflicts both /ithin an! bet/een nations. Mass famine is also often by ma;or epi!emics of
infectious !iseases li(e cholera an! !ysentery, /hich coul! further raise the !eath toll. 1hose conse@uences
/oul! pale in comparison to the %uclear ,inter /hich /oul! !e#astate the globe shoul! the "nite! -tates or
Russia unleash e#en a small portion of their arsenal, Helfan! sai!. 71he "- an! Russia are not li(ely to start a /ar /ith each other,
but /e (no/ of at least fi#e times /hen the "- or Russia prepare! to launch a nuclear attac( because it belie#e! it /as un!er attac(,8 Helfan! sai!.
"ntil the bul( of the arsenal is !isarme! an! hairJtriggers are remo#e!, Helfan! sai! only 7luc(8 /ill pre#ent
the ne*t computer glitch or communication failure to result in total nuclear /ar. Mi(hail Gorbache#, /ho as presi!ent of
the -o#iet "nion helpe! en! the Col! ,ar an! open RussiaQs communist regime to !emocracy, sai! the stu!y offers further proof of the nee! to abolish
nuclear /eapons. 7B#er t/entyJfi#e years ago, ("-? Presi!ent Ronal! Reagan an! en!e! our summit meeting in Gene#a /ith a ;oint statement that
[nuclear /ar cannot be /on an! must ne#er be fought,Q8 Gorbache#, /ho foun!e! the summit of peace laureates, sai! in a statement.
71his ne/ stu!y un!erscores in stunning an! !isturbing !etail /hy this is the case an! /hy /e must !iscar!
Col! ,arJstyle plans for the possible use of these /eapons an! mo#e rapi!ly to eliminating them from the
/orl!Qs arsenals.8J A'P
Iran Prolif Moo$ , ME Sta%ilit!
Iranian n&clear $e+elopment is goo$???sta%ili;es the region an$ $oesn-t pro$&ce negati+e
effects
4alt; DE1L 4534, $2enneth ,altA is senior research scholar at the -altAman nstitute of ,ar an! Peace -tu!ies, 7Column9 ranian nu(esU %o
/orries,8 http9::///.usato!ay.com:ne/s:opinion:forum:story:4534J5=J3P:iranJnuclearJbombJisraelJproliferation:>>=>646O:3, AJ
t shoul! not. n fact, a nuclearJarme! ran /oul! probably be the best possible result of the stan!off an! the one
most li#el! to restore sta%ilit! to the Mi$$le East . 1he thir! possible outcome of the stan!off is that
ran continues its course an! publicly goes nuclear by testing a /eapon. ".-. an! sraeli officials ha#e !eclare!
that outcome unacceptable, arguing that a nuclear ran is an e*istential threat to srael. -uch language is
typical of ma;or po/ers, /hich ha#e historically gotten rile! up /hene#er another country begins to !e#elop a
nuclear /eapon. .et e#ery time another country has manage! to shoul!er its /ay into the nuclear club, the other
members ha#e al/ays change! tac( an! !eci!e! to li#e /ith it. n fact, by re!ucing imbalances in military po/er,
ne/ nuclear states generally pro!uce more regional an! international stability, not less. sraelHs regional
nuclear monopoly, /hich has pro#e! remar(ably !urable for more than four !eca!es, has long fuele! instability in the
Mi!!le )ast. n no other region of the /orl! !oes a lone, unchec(e! nuclear state e*ist. It is Israel7s n&clear
arsenal not Iran7s $esire for one that has contri%&te$ most to the crisis. Po/er, after all, begs to be balance!.
1he !anger of a nuclear ran has been grossly e*aggerate! !ue to fun!amental misun!erstan!ings of ho/
states generally beha#e in the international system. Bne prominent concern is that the ranian regime is
inherently irrational. Portraying ran that /ay has allo/e! ".-. an! sraeli officials to argue that the logic of
nuclear !eterrence !oes not apply. f ran ac@uire! a nuclear /eapon, they /arn, it /oul! not hesitate to launch a first
stri(e against srael, though it /oul! ris( an o#er/helming response !estroying e#erything the slamic
Republic hol!s !ear. Although it is impossible to be certain of ranian intentions, it is far more li(ely that if
ran !esires nuclear /eapons, it is for the purpose of enhancing its o/n security, not to impro+e its
offensi+e capa%ilities . ran coul! be intransigent /hen negotiating an! !efiant in the face of sanctions, but it still acts to secure its
o/n preser#ation. %e#ertheless, e#en some obser#ers an! policyma(ers /ho accept that the ranian regime is
rational still /orry that a nuclear /eapon /oul! embol!en it, pro#i!ing 1ehran /ith a shiel! that /oul! allo/
it to act more aggressi#ely an! increase its support for terrorism. 1he problem /ith these concerns is that they
contra!ict the recor! of almost e#ery other nuclear /eapons state !ating to 3<6>. History sho/s that /hen countries
ac@uire the bomb, they feel increasingly #ulnerable an! become acutely a/are that their nuclear /eapons ma(e
them a potential target in the eyes of ma;or po/ers. This awareness $isco&rages n&clear states from
%ol$ an$ aggressi+e action. Maoist China, for e*ample, became much less bellicose after ac@uiring nuclear /eapons in 3<=6, an! n!ia
an! Pa(istan ha#e both become more cautious since going nuclear. Another oftJtoute! /orry is that if ran obtains the bomb,
other states in the region /ill follo/ suit, lea!ing to a nuclear arms race in the Mi!!le )ast. &ut the nuclear age
is no/ almost P5 years ol!, an! fears of proliferation ha+e pro+e$ to %e &nfo&n$e$ . ,hen srael ac@uire! the
bomb in the 3<=5s, it /as at /ar /ith many of its neighbors. f an atomic srael !i! not trigger an arms race then, there is no
reason a nuclear ran shoul! no/. 'or these reasons, the ".-. an! its allies nee! not ta(e such pains to pre#ent the
ranians from !e#eloping a nuclear /eapon. Diplomacy shoul! continue because open lines of communication
/ill ma(e the ,estern countries feel better able to li#e /ith a nuclear ran. &ut the sanctions on ran can be
!roppe!9 1hey primarily harm or!inary ranians, /ith little purpose. Most important, policyma(ers an! citiAens
/orl!/i!e shoul! ta(e comfort from the fact that /here nuclear capabilities ha#e emerge!, so, too, has
stability. ,hen it comes to nuclear /eapons, no/ as e#er, more coul! be better.
(;one Depletion Moo$ , 4arming
(;one $epletion sol+es warming
TM Dail! P 34:3, $1echnology, -cience, )ntertainment, an! &usiness %e/s, 7Hole in oAone layer /as a goo! thing after all,8
http9::///.tg!aily.com:sustainabilityJfeatures:66OPOJholeJinJoAoneJlayerJ/asJaJgoo!JthingJafterJall, AJ
Remember those nasty C'Cs an! ho/ they /ere !estroying the oAone layer, causing untol! harm to the en#ironmentU ,ell, it no/ turns out J if these
clo/ns are to be belie#e! J that because the entire 'rench nation stoppe! using aerosol !eo!orants a !eca!e ago, the hole in the oAone layer
o#er the Antarctic is healing nicely. Rather sa!ly, this is now increasing glo%al warming rather than
slowing it. ,hoops. -cientists /arn that as the hole closes up in the ne*t fe/ !eca!es, temperat&res on the
continent co&l$ rise %! aro&n$ 9C on a+erage , /ith melting ice contributing to a global seaJle#el rise of
up to 3.6m. B#er the last couple of !eca!es, the continent as a /hole has coole!, resulting in an increase of
aroun! ten percent in the ice in the sea aroun! Antarctica. 1he &ritish Antarctic -ur#ey no/ says that this cooling resulte!
from the oAone hole an! that as it heals o#er the ne*t >5 or =5 years, Antarctica /ill start to /arm up again. ,hat
this actually sho/s is that climate e*perts an! their sophisticate! computer mo!els ainHt /orth a spit. 1hey assure us that un!erarm !eo!orants are ba!
for the #ital oAone layer, so 'rance has an e*cuse to stop using them.