Tec de Monterrey, campus San Luis Potos

Quantitative Methods and Simulation

Quiz 1
Name: Stefanny Torres Avils A01152397
Name: Osmar Fernando Ramrez Oramas A01152822
Name: Gabriela Hernndez Bernab A01151271
Name: Marco Antonio Salazar Gonzlez A01152883
Nmeros Aleatorios Congruencia lineal

0.1566265060240964
0
0.10843373493975904
0.8795180722891566
0.8072289156626506
0.6265060240963856
0.6746987951807228
0.7951807228915663
0.0963855421686747
0.3493975903614458
0.4819277108433735
0.3132530120481928

0.891566265060241
0.3373493975903614
0.9518072289156626
0.9879518072289156
0.5783132530120482
0.5542168674698795
0.4939759036144578
0.8433734939759037
0.21686746987951808
0.6506024096385542
0.7349397590361446
0.4457831325301205

0.7228915662650602
0.9156626506024096
0.39759036144578314
0.6024096385542169
0.6144578313253012
0.14457831325301204
0.46987951807228917
0.7831325301204819
0.5662650602409639
0.024096385542168676
0.1686746987951807
0.5301204819277109
0.43373493975903615
0.1927710843373494
0.5903614457831325
0.08433734939759036
0.8192771084337349
0.1566265060240964
0
0.10843373493975904
0.8795180722891566
0.8072289156626506
0.6265060240963856
0.6746987951807228
0.7951807228915663
0.0963855421686747
0.3493975903614458
0.4819277108433735
0.3132530120481928
0.891566265060241
0.3373493975903614
0.9518072289156626
0.9879518072289156
0.5783132530120482
0.5542168674698795
0.4939759036144578
0.8433734939759037
0.21686746987951808

0.6506024096385542
0.7349397590361446
0.4457831325301205
0.7228915662650602
0.9156626506024096
0.39759036144578314
0.6024096385542169
0.6144578313253012
0.14457831325301204
0.46987951807228917
0.7831325301204819
0.5662650602409639
0.024096385542168676
0.1686746987951807
0.5301204819277109
0.43373493975903615
0.1927710843373494
0.5903614457831325
0.08433734939759036
0.8192771084337349
0.1566265060240964
0
0.10843373493975904
0.8795180722891566
0.8072289156626506
0.6265060240963856
0.6746987951807228
0.7951807228915663
0.0963855421686747
0.3493975903614458
0.4819277108433735
0.3132530120481928
0.891566265060241
0.3373493975903614
0.9518072289156626
0.9879518072289156
0.5783132530120482
0.5542168674698795

2. Write a table with the CDF of an exponential distribution with lamda

equal to the sum of the last two digits of each one of your student id
numbers (matrcula).
9 + 7 = 16
2+2=4
7+1=8
8 + 3 = 11
Student

Actual

Id

Frequency %
4

0.25

0.5

11

0.75

16

1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

10

12

14

16

18

3. Use the CDF to transform the random numbers generated in (1) into the
domain of the exponential distribution tabulated in (2).
0.1566265060240964 = 4
0=4
0.10843373493975904 = 4
0.8795180722891566 = 16
0.8072289156626506 = 16
0.6265060240963856 = 11
0.6746987951807228 = 11
0.7951807228915663 = 16
0.0963855421686747 = 4
0.3493975903614458 = 8
0.4819277108433735 = 8
0.3132530120481928 = 8
0.891566265060241 = 16
0.3373493975903614 = 8
0.9518072289156626 = 16
0.9879518072289156 = 16
0.5783132530120482 = 11
0.5542168674698795 = 11
0.4939759036144578 = 8
0.8433734939759037 = 16
0.21686746987951808 = 4
0.6506024096385542 = 11
0.7349397590361446 = 11
0.4457831325301205 = 8
0.7228915662650602 = 11
0.9156626506024096 = 16
0.39759036144578314 = 8
0.6024096385542169 = 11
0.6144578313253012 = 11
0.14457831325301204 = 4
0.46987951807228917 = 8
0.7831325301204819 = 16
0.5662650602409639 = 11
0.024096385542168676 = 4
0.1686746987951807 = 4
0.5301204819277109 = 11
0.43373493975903615 = 8
0.1927710843373494 = 4
0.5903614457831325 = 11
0.08433734939759036 = 4
0.8192771084337349 = 16
0.1566265060240964 = 4

0=4
0.10843373493975904 = 4
0.8795180722891566 = 16
0.8072289156626506 = 16
0.6265060240963856 = 11
0.6746987951807228 = 11
0.7951807228915663 = 16
0.0963855421686747 = 4
0.3493975903614458 = 8
0.4819277108433735 = 8
0.3132530120481928 = 8
0.891566265060241 = 16
0.3373493975903614 = 8
0.9518072289156626 = 16
0.9879518072289156 = 16
0.5783132530120482 = 11
0.5542168674698795 = 11
0.4939759036144578 = 8
0.8433734939759037 = 16
0.21686746987951808 = 4
0.6506024096385542 = 11
0.7349397590361446 = 11
0.4457831325301205 = 8
0.7228915662650602 = 11
0.9156626506024096 = 16
0.39759036144578314 = 8
0.6024096385542169 = 11
0.6144578313253012 = 11
0.14457831325301204 = 4
0.46987951807228917 = 8
0.7831325301204819 = 16
0.5662650602409639 = 11
0.024096385542168676 = 4
0.1686746987951807 = 4
0.5301204819277109 = 11
0.43373493975903615 = 8
0.1927710843373494 = 4
0.5903614457831325 = 11
0.08433734939759036 = 4
0.8192771084337349 = 16
0.1566265060240964 = 4
0=4

0.10843373493975904 = 4
0.8795180722891566 = 16
0.8072289156626506 = 16
0.6265060240963856 = 11
0.6746987951807228 = 11
0.7951807228915663 = 16
0.0963855421686747 = 4
0.3493975903614458 = 8
0.4819277108433735 = 8
0.3132530120481928 = 8

0.891566265060241 = 16
0.3373493975903614 = 8
0.9518072289156626 = 16
0.9879518072289156 = 16
0.5783132530120482 = 11
0.5542168674698795 = 11

4.- Describe at least three of the operative laws covered in class and give
an original example for each one of them.
a) Law of variability:
Increasing variability always degrades the performance of a production system.

Example: If the schedule of a student is organized as the following:

7:00am - 12:00 pm
12:00pm - 18:00pm
18:00pm 20:00pm
20:00pm - 22:00pm

Going to school
Going to work
Going to the gym
Studying/Homework

And he is asked to take an important test at 19:00pm there is more chances that
the student would fail the exam rather than if he would take the exam earlier in
the morning, because as we can see the student schedule is full and by the time
that he would take the test there is a greater probability to be tired and his
performance will be compromised. We think that all of us have had a similar
experience, so you can prove this by yourself.
b) Process batching law:
In stations with batch operations or significant change over times the minimum
batch size that yields a stable system may be greater than one.
Example: Lets take a student, which organizes his homework by subject
and by time in the afternoon. Every class will have its own batch (homework)
assigned to a cycle (time established to do it). He decides that will take one hour
to complete the homework of each class.
If someday he has to do homework for 3 classes (English, Chemistry and Math),
and he assigns one hour for each as established previously, the behavior of the
process will be different with every batch. The English homework was very easy

to solve, while Maths very complicated, with this in mind, he will probably finish
English homework in less than one hour and have some spare time before start
with the next one, because the batch wasnt very big, instead with Math class (as
it is a very big batch) he will need more than an hour to complete.
Saying this we can affirm that the size of the cycle, is proportional to the size of
the batch. When the batch is of a great size, then the cycle time of the process
will increase, because there will be more tasks to complete a single batch.
c) Forced flow law:
It represents the total amount of a production process that visits a specific server.
We define the visit count of a resource to be the ratio of the number of
completions at that resource to the number of system completions, or, more
intuitively, to be the average number of visits that a system-level request makes
to that resource. Formula: Xk = V, X
Example: As IT students we have a great example of this law, with the
basic knowledge of network administration we will explain the following image:

Boss

Manager_1

IT_department

Client_1

Manager_2

Human_Resources

Client_2

Manager_3

Finances

Production

Client_3

Client_4

Client_5

We have in the top of the image the Boss of the company, that send information

to the Managers, they check it, selected and send it to the right department so
that they can give it to the final client.
This is a great example of forced flaw law because we can know what
information or how many of the employees visit each station.

5. Select one of the examples in (4) and describe the methodology you
would use to develop a simulation project to explain that law to high school
students.
PROCESS BATCHING LAW:
As we already said, the process batching law consists in the relationship
between the batch size and the time cycle it takes to be completed. Assuming
this we can build a simple example to represent a common process in the
classroom, grading Math exercises.
To start the example, we first need to divide the whole class in two groups. Lets
say we have 26 students. We divide them in two groups of 13. Then each group
will select one person to be the cycle processor, so we can have something like
this:

Cycle Processor Team 1

Cycle Processor Team 2

Team 1 (12 people)

Team 2 (12 people)

We the teams are made; its time to separate the groups into the corresponding
batches, to do so each Cycle Processor will chose a little piece of paper
(previously made), there will be the number of batches that the team has to
contain. For our example lets say the team one picked 4 batches while the team
two just 3. So now the teams are:

Batch 1
(3 people)

Batch 1
(4
people)

Batch 2
(3 people)

Batch 2
(4
people)

Batch 3
(3 people)

Batch 4
(3 people)

Batch 3
(4
people)

Cycle
Processor

Cycle
Processor

The cycle processors will have the solutions for each equation, but the batches
wont, each batch will need to solve (individually) the equation and when all are
done, the simulation begins. The teams will have 10 minutes to check their
equations in the cycle processor station, and the winner will be the one who can
process more batches.
WARNING! They will have some restrictions; a batch cant be fully completed
until all its members have the right solution with the right process, if one of the
members fails to do so the entire batch has to restart the check. The queue will
be stopped.
When the ten minutes are over, the professor will count the number of safe
batches and declare the winner.
What we saw here is that if we have a big batch the time of the cycle (in this case
of check the equations) will increase proportionally to it. And as the process
batch law establishes, if there is a trouble with one batch will be easier and faster
to solve it with little batches than with the great ones. With this example the high
school students can easily understand this law in a very dynamic way.

Final Project Advance: Submit in your quiz the name of the team members
(maximum 6) working together in the final project. Your final project will be about
developing a pedagogical simulation to explain someone how a process is
conducted. Suggest three computer science, manufacturing or service processes
that you want to simulate and write them down after the team member list. Dr.
Santana will help you to pick one next session.

Team:
Name: Stefanny Torres Avils A01152397
Name: Osmar Fernando Ramrez Oramas A01152822
Name: Gabriela Hernndez Bernab A01151271
Name: Marco Antonio Salazar Gonzlez A01152883

Processes:
1. The process of controlling the flow of work of the processors of a PC.
2. The process of car manufacturing.
3. The process of managing the request from a server.