What type of mathematical problem is forecasting?

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology

toward predicting the state of the atmosphere at a given location, so an
initial value mathematical problem is involved. The basic idea of
numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a
given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and
thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the
future.

What is deterministic chaos?

Chaos theory is a field of mathematics that studies dynamical systems
that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. Small changes in initial
conditions yield highly variable outcomes. Deterministic chaos refers to
the fact that the future behavior of these systems in question are fully
determined by initial conditions with no random elements involved.
Nonetheless, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make
them predictable.

What two factors cause deterministic chaos?

Errors in the initial sate of the system and nonlinear dynamics
afterwards.

Who discovered deterministic chaos?

Lorenz

How long is the predictability time window for weather
forecasting?

10-14 days

What are accuracy and precision?

Accuracy is the degree of closeness of measurements to their true
value, whereas precision is the spread of the observed values.

Why is it not possible to predict the weather 15 days ahead with
accuracy better than a randomly chosen weather map?

The reason it is not any more accurate than a randomly chosen weather
map is because of deterministic chaos and this type of problem is an
initial value problem. The nonlinear dynamics and unavoidable errors
in the initial observation of the atmosphere are the reason it is not
possible to forecast weather 15 days ahead.


How is it then possible to project the change in climate 15 years
from now due to human-caused global warming?

Projecting climate change is a different problem than predicting
weather, a boundary-value problem. Climate projections average over a
longer period of time than the predictability time period of weather
forecasts. We average out the unpredictable time scales and are left
with a signal that is predictable.


Why did the UK Meteorological Survey cease their seasonal
forecast in March 2010?

Because this type of problem is a climate prediction of the first kind: an
initial value problem and a boundary-value problem it is extremely
difficult. The UK met office failed to predict 4 abnormal seasons over
3-4 years (3 wetter than avg summers and one colder than avg winter)
and after much criticism decided to offer monthly outlooks rather than
four 3-month outlooks per year.

Why is the maximum near surface temperature always at the
tropics?

The tropics are where the Earth receives the most solar radiation at the
surface. This is because the Earth is a spheroid and the tropics are
located near the equator. Also Earths oceans ensure more heat is
released at the center of the equator than at other latitudes following the
maximum solar heating of the sun (which drives the seasons).

Describe the vertical structure of the Earths atmosphere and why
it is the way it is.

Temperature decreases with altitude in the troposphere and the heating
is caused from the Earths surface. Temperature increases with altitude
in the stratosphere because the ozone absorbs UV radiation in this
region. Temperature decreases with altitude in the mesosphere and the
heating is from the ozone layer. Then temperature increases with
altitude again in the thermosphere because of absorption of solar
radiation and conduction.

Earth to Mars: temp scales

If we calibrate our thermometer on Earth and use it on Mars and we are
using Celsius or Kelvin we won't have any problems. If we want to
calibrate F, we should probably use alcohol as a reference liquid on
Mars.


Why is the maximum pressure of water vapor at the Earths
surface?

Because the source of all water in the atmosphere is the surface (from
oceans, lakes, rivers, etc.) this leads to the maximum amount of water
vapor occurring at the surface.

Why is the maximum pressure of water vapor at the Earths
surface always in the tropics?

This is because the maximum global yearly average in temperature
occurs in the tropics. Then because of the equation for saturation vapor
pressure (SVP) which depends only on air temperature. The air in the
tropics is able to hold more water vapor than at any other latitude
(globally averaged) hence maximum water vapor pressure at the
surface always occurs in the tropics.



Where are the three peaks in the latitudinal distribution of
precipitation?

The three peaks in the latitudinal distribution of precipitation are at the
equator and the mid latitudes in the Northern and Southern hemisphere.

What are the 4 steps proposed by the White House to address
methane pollution?

The interior department will propose updated standards to reduce
venting and flaring of mathane from oil and gas production on public
lands. Starting this April, the Interior's Bureau of Land Management
will gather public comment on the development of a program for the
capture and sale of methane produced by coal mines on lands leased by
the federal government. This summer, the EPA will propose updated
standards to reduce methane emissions for new landfills and take public
comment on whether to update standards for existing landfills. In June,
the Agricultural Department, the Energy Department, and the EPA will
release a joint "biogas roadmap" aimed at accelerating adoption of
methane digesters, machines that reduce methane emissions from
cattle, in order to cut dairy-sector emissions by 25% by 2020.

Why are most of Earths deserts located in the subtropics of the
Northern and Southern hemispheres?

Subtropical areas have consistently high atmospheric pressure because
of descending air currents and are swept by hot, dry winds. These
conditions keep moisture-bearing winds from entering the region and
prevent the formation of clouds.


What two instruments are used to measure temperature and
salinity as a function of depth?

ARGO floats and CTD (Conductivity, Temperature & Depth
Measurement Device)



How do density, temperature, and salinity vary with depth?

The ocean is warmest at the surface due to heating by the sun,
temperature then decreases with depth. Salinity and density both
increase as depth increases.

What causes the World Oceans gyre circulations?

global wind patterns (the Westerlies at middle latitudes and easterly
winds in the equatorial region) drive global oceanic gyres

What causes the World Oceans thermohaline circulation?

Thermohaline circulation is driven by global density gradients created
by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The descriptor, thermohaline,
derives from thermo- referring to temperature and haline referring to
salt content, factors that together determine the density of sea-water.
Wind driven surface currents travel pole ward from the equatorial
Atlantic Ocean, cooling along the way, and eventually sinking at high
latitudes. This dense water flows into the ocean basins. While the bulk
of it upwells in the Southern Ocean, the oldest waters upwell in the
North Pacific. Extensive mixing therefore takes place between the two
ocean basins, making Earths oceans a global system.

What percentage of the heat transported northward by the
thermohaline circulation would be sufficient to run human
civilization?
1% would be sufficient.

Where is Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formed?
The AABW is formed in the southern ocean surrounding Antarctica -
more specifically, it is formed in the Weddel and Ross seas from
surface water cooling in polynyas and below the ice shelf.

Where is North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formed?
NADW, on the other hand, is a water mass that forms in the North
Atlantic Ocean - largely in the Labrador sea and Greenland sea by the
sinking of highly saline, dense overflow water from the Greenland sea.
How are tree rings used to estimate pre-instrumental climates?
The transfer function is used to estimate the growing-season
temperature or precipitation for past decades. By overlapping multiple
tree rings the record can be extended several hundred years.
How are pollen species used to estimate pre-instrumental climates?
Sediment is deposited annually in lakes. This is used to create a
chronology. Pollen is deposited in each year's lake sediment. Pollen
species are then categorized into warm and cool temperature (also high
and low precip) species (each pollen species has an environmental
niche). Then the relative number of pollen species is determined at a
location. How the frequency of cool versus warm species (and low
versus high precip species) has changed over time is used to infer the
past climate.
How is
18
O in ice cores used to estimate paleo-temperatures?
Snow is deposited annually on the Greenland Ice Sheet and the
Antarctic Ice Sheet. As more annual snow layers accumulate, the
deeper snow gets compacted into ice. Counting the annual layers
creates a chronology. 18 O is heavier than 16 O, so the fractionation
(how much more 16 O is evaporated from sea ice than 18 O) is
temperature dependent. After slices of ice cores are melted, scientists
can measure the amount of 16 O and 18 O and use the fraction of these
gasses (18O to 16O) to infer global sea surface temperature.







18
O in the plankton contained in ocean cores used to
estimate paleo- temperatures?
Oxygen dissolves from the atmosphere into the ocean, by analyzing
ratios of oxygen isotopes we can estimate how ocean temperatures have
changed over time. Lower 18O in plankton corresponds to warmer
ocean temperatures and higher 18O corresponds to colder ocean
temperatures.

Suppose the Earths rotation axis was not tilted from the Plane of
the Ecliptic (the plane containing the Sun and the planets), that is,
suppose the Obliquity was zero. How would the seasons differ from
the current seasons?
The rotational axis is perpendicular to the orbital plane. No change in
season.
What aspect of the Glacial (Ice Age) Interglacial Cycle does the
Orbital Parameter Theory explain?
The theory explains the triggers of the glacial-interglacial cycle.

What aspect of the Glacial (Ice Age) Interglacial Cycle does the
Orbital Parameter Theory not explain?
The changes in solar radiation are too small to explain the magnitude of
the temperature changes in the glacial-interglacial cycle.
What additional factor is required to explain the Glacial (Ice Age)
Interglacial Cycle?
The concurrent changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, CO2
and CH4 are needed to explain the entire glacial interglacial cycle.


What is climate-change detection, and how is it performed?
Climate-change detection or any time series detection is simply looking
for signals in the data. Time series detection is performed by some sort
of processing of the time series (usually a statistical method).

What is a Quasi-Periodic Oscillation?
A periodic oscillation by one definition is a sin wave. Or an oscillation
that never changes with time. I.e. it is always regular. A quasi-periodic
oscillation is one that is semi-regular with time.

What is climate-change attribution, and how is it performed?
Climate-change attribution is the process by which mechanisms
responsible for recent changes in observed climate are scientifically
ascertained. Attribution requires demonstrating that a signal is: unlikely
to be due entirely to internal variability; consistent with the estimated
responses to the given combination of anthropogenic and natural
forcing; not consistent with alternative, physically plausible
explanations of recent climate change that exclude important elements
of the given combination of forcings.
What caused the global warming from the mid 19
th
century to the
present?
The global warming observed from the mid 19th century to the present
is caused by the increased human emission of greenhouse gases.
What caused the early 20
th
century warming and the mid 20
th
century cooling?
natural oscillation in temperature over north Atlantic
What caused the global warming observed after 1976?
emissions in greenhouse gasses
Why was there no apparent global warming during 19982008?
Near cancellation of the human-caused warming by natural variability

What is expected value?
Expected value is a predicted value for a variable and can be calculated
as the sum of possible values, each multiplied by its likelihood of
occurrence.

Which groups of countries must reduce their emissions of
greenhouse gases in order to keep the expected value of the
maximum global warming below the 2C value adopted by the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change at the 16
th
Conference
of the Parties in Cancun, Mexico, in December 2010 to prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference in Earths climate system?
Really just the G20 countries

In which forum/fora should the world negotiate a treaty to
reduce/eliminate emissions of greenhouse gases?
G20 meeting

What is the bottom line of the paper: Revised Fair Plan to
Safeguard Earths Climate.
The bottom line outlines a plan to reduce emissions, a phase-out
schedule. The phase-out increases the peak emission year from 2015 to
2030 for developed countries and from 2042 to 2053 for developing
countries. Thus, time from peak until zero emissions (expected) goes
from 50 to 70 years for developed countries and 23 to 47 for the
developing world.
What is the bottom line of the paper: A Fair Plan to Safeguard
Earths Climate: 3. Outlook for Global Temperature Change
throughout the 21
st
Century?
The observed temperature changes from 19th century to the present can
be broken down to 3 components: (1) a trend, (2) three QPOs that can
be predicted on a yearly basis, (3) non-predictable noise over a yearly
basis. Projecting temperature changes during the 21st century due to
both natural variability and anthropogenic factors shows that we are
moving from phase II to phase III, where human-caused signal is much
greater than natural variability. As such, its now more important than
ever to get an international agreement to move us to the post fossil-fuel
age from 2020 to 2100.

What are Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Climate Models based on?
They are based on separate atmosphere and ocean models that have
been combined.

Climate Models divide the atmosphere and ocean into layers, and
the north-south and east-west dimension into either grid cells or
mathematical functions such as sines and cosines. If the horizontal
resolution of a Climate Model is increased 10 fold, say from 500 km
to 50 km, the time step by which the solution is advanced in time
must be decreased 10 fold. By how much is the computing
requirement increased by these changes?
Increases computing time by 103, 1000 times longer than previously
needed





Physical processes in the Earths Climate System range in
horizontal size from 40,000 km (the circumference of the Earth at
the Equator; 4 x 10
7
meters) to a ten-millionth of a meter (an
aerosol particle on which water vapor can condense, thus releasing
the (latent) heat the water received to evaporate it from the Earths
surface; 10
7
meters). Our so-called supercomputers are not fast
enough to explicitly resolve the small-scale physical processes. But
their effects are too important to ignore. How are these important
small- scale processes included in Climate Models?
They are included by parameterization. Information on large-scale
processes are used to make parameterizations in order to include small-
scale processes in Climate models.

Describe the fingerprints of the human-caused change in the
geographical distribution of near-surface temperature and
precipitation.
Human-caused climate change will basically make dry parts of the
earth drier and some moist parts to become wetter. Additionally,
temperature is expected to increase overall globally by 2100, with
decreased ocean pH levels (more acidic). The greatest impacts of
anthropogenic change will occur in countries that emit the least amount
of greenhouse gasses.