Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Submitted By~
Manish Kumar
PGDM2008-36
(2008-10)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
SWOT Analysis____________________________________________ 7
Relative Valuation_____________________________________ 14
EVA________________________________________________ 16
Conclusion________________________________________________ 16
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INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Cement production commenced in India as early as 1914. The first cement unit was set up at Porbandar in
1914 with a capacity of 1,000 tons per annum. Cement is the preferred building material in India. It is used
extensively in household and industrial construction. Earlier, government sector used to consume over 50%
of the total cement sold in India, but in the last decade, its share has come down to 35%. Rural areas
consume less than 23% of the total cement. Availability of cheaper building materials for non-permanent
structures affects the rural demand.
Demand for cement is linked to the economic activity in any country. Broadly, it can be categorized into
demand for housing construction (homes, offices etc.) and infrastructure creation (ports, roads, power plants
etc). The real driver of cement demand is creation of infrastructure; hence cement demand in emerging
economies is much higher than developed countries where the demand has reached a plateau. In India too,
the demand for cement will be affected by spending on infrastructure (including housing).
With the boost given by the government to various infrastructure projects, road network and housing
facilities, growth in the cement consumption is anticipated in the coming year. The increase in infrastructure
projects by the government coupled with the construction of the Golden Quadrilateral and the North-South
and East-West corridor projects have led to an increase in consumption of cement. This increase is expected
to continue in the future. The reduction in import duties is not likely to affect the industry as the cement
produced is at par with the international standards and the prices are lower than those prevailing in
international markets.
Leading players include GACL, Aditya Birla group, India Cements, Jaypee group, Century Textiles, Madras
Cements, Lafarge, and Birla Corp etc.
The cement industry is dependent on three major infrastructural sectors of the economy: coal, power and
transport. The inputs from these three sectors account for roughly 50% of the cost of cement. Both the
availability and the cost of these inputs have a vital bearing on the fortunes of the cement players.
Power and Fuel cost form the largest proportion of the cost structure. This reflects the effects of the trend in
rising global oil and fuel prices. On the other hand Employee costs form the smallest proportion of overall
cost. This is essentially because cement industry is a very capital intensive industry. This also accounts for
the huge depreciation and interest costs which accrue on the plant and machinery. Moreover, the labour
employed is essentially semi-skilled excluding the top management which brings down labour costs.
Cement, being a bulk commodity, is a freight intensive industry and transporting cement over long distances
can prove to be uneconomical. This has resulted in cement being largely a regional play with the industry
divided into five main regions viz. north, south, west, east and the central region.
While the southern region always had excess capacity in the past owing to abundant availability of
limestone, the western and northern regions are the most lucrative markets on account of higher income
levels. However, with capacity addition taking place at a slower rate as compared to growth in demand,
recently the demand supply parity had also been restored to some extent in the Southern region.
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Considering the pace at which infrastructural activity is taking place in different regions, the players have
lined up expansion plans accordingly.
The Indian cement industry with a total capacity of about 200 m tonnes (MT) in FY09 is the second largest
market after China. Although consolidation has taken place in the Indian cement industry with the top five
players controlling almost 60% of the capacity, the balance capacity still remains pretty fragmented.
Despite the fact that the Indian cement industry has clocked production of more than 100 MT for the last
five years, registering a growth of nearly 9% to 10%, the per capita consumption of around 134 kgs
compares poorly with the world average of over 263 kgs, and more than 950 kgs in China. This, more than
anything, underlines the tremendous scope for growth in the Indian cement industry in the long term.
Given the high potential for growth, quite a few foreign transnationals have been eyeing the Indian markets
and are planning to acquire domestic companies. Already, while companies like Lafarge, Heidelberg and
Italicementi have made a couple of acquisitions, Holcim has acquired stake in domestic companies Ambuja
Cements and ACC and has increased its stake gradually to gain full control. After acquiring stake in big
companies, transnationals eyed median capacity producers. Italcementi acquired 100% stake in Zuari
Cement and 95% stake in Shree Vishnu. Cimpor, the Portugese cement manufacturer, acquired Grasim’s
stake (53.63%) in Shree Dig Vijay.
However, it must be noted that the transnationals will find the going tough since cement is a game of
volumes and with the median capacity of fragmented players, the transnationals will have to acquire
capacities piecemeal and this route is fraught with a lot of uncertainties. The global players put together
account of quarter share of the domestic market. Further, turning around few of the companies at a time
when the cycle is at its peak would be a difficult task. Considering the long term growth story, fair
valuations, fragmented structure of the industry and low gearing, an another wave of consolidation would
not come as a surprise.
Major Consolidations
Some examples of the consolidation witnessed during the recent past include:
India Cement taking over Raasi Cement and Sri Vishnu Cement;
Grasim's acquisition of the cement business of L&T; Indian Rayon's cement division merging with Grasim;
Grasim taking over Sri Dig Vijay Cements; L&T taking over Narmada Cements; ACC taking over IDCOL.
Multinational cement companies have also initiated the acquisition process in the Indian cement market.
Swiss cement major Holcim has picked up 14.8% of the promoters stake in Gujarat Ambuja Cements
(GACL). It hasd entered into a strategic alliance with GACL, and acquired a 67% controlling stake in
Ambuja Cement India. Through this holding company, Holcim acquired a majority in Ambuja Cement
Eastern and a substantial stake in ACC as Gujarat Ambuja has 14% stake in ACC.
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Holcim's acquisition has led to the emergence of two major groups in the Indian cement industry, the
Holcim-ACC-Gujarat Ambuja Cements combine and the Aditya Birla group through Grasim Industries and
Ultratech Cement.
The overheated real estate sector has cooled off now. Considering the financial turmoil witnessed globally,
financial institutions have tightened their credit norms. This cautious stance has led to a credit crunch and
the same has impacted upcoming projects.
On account of general economic slowdown and these issues, the demand for cement has moderated.
However, stimulus packages announced by the government and agricultural income gave a fillip to the
demand for the commodity.
The industry volumes and realisations were higher during FY09 that boosted top line growth. However, cost
of operation did also witnessed northward movement that exerted pressure on margins.
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The cement industry on an average maintains two months inventory of fuel and such costs. The players
either have to purchase raw materials from open market or import it. This has increased cost of operation.
The industry had lined up huge capex plans with that depreciation costs have moved up. All of this has
dented profitability.
In the recent past, demand has surpassed supply, resulting in healthy cement prices across the country.
However, this scenario is likely to reverse as the industry has lined up huge capacity expansion plans. With
the growth in the sector and waning demand supply gap, cement producers have lined up capacity expansion
plans either by Brownfield or Greenfield expansion route. As the capacities become operational, which has
started taking place, supply may once again outstrip demand putting downward pressure on margins. Having
said that, temporary relief may be provided if there are delays in any of the proposed expansion plans.
In the budget, while the government refrained from cutting lowering the burden of taxes and duties on
cement, it imposed customs duty of 7.5% on RMC cement. Imposition of 7.5% customs duty on concrete
batching plants is likely to negatively impact the ready mix concrete manufacturers. However, it won’t have
a severe impact as RMC constitutes not more than 5% of total cement consumption. Further, with more
incentives being spelled out for the infrastructure and housing sector, cement manufacturers will continue to
benefit. The budget measures such as increasing excise duties have proved to be futile and in the future too,
we believe that it is the market dynamics that will determine these variables.
Good agricultural income has supported demand for the commodity despite slowdown in real estate sector.
Going forward, we believe the government’s initiatives in the infrastructure and housing sectors are likely to
be the main drivers of growth for the industry in the long run.
The speedy implementation of the series of development efforts initiated by the government during the
budget will augur well to easily absorb the additional cement capacity that would come on stream during the
second quarter of the current fiscal. The underlying demand continues to be strong and the cement players
will enjoy good dispatch growth with excellent capacity utilization at least for the next 2 quarters.
The commodity prices have also started hardening, as there are signs of global economy improving. Now
this could increase the input prices for cement as well. However in the absence of further incremental
demand creation, there could be problems ahead for the cement industry in FY 2011.
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SWOT ANALYSIS
Strengths: Double digit growth rate
Cement demand has grown in tandem with strong economic growth; derived from:
-Infrastructure projects like ports, airports, power projects, and dam & irrigation projects
-National Highway Development Programme & Bharat Nirman Yojana for rural infrastructure
Substantially lower per capita cement consumption as compared to developing countries (1/3 rd of world
average). Per capita cement consumption in India is 82 kg against a global average of 255 kg and Asian
average of 200 kg.
Additional capacity of 20 million tons per annum will be required to match the demand
Limited green field capacity addition in pipeline for next two years, leading to favorable demand – supply
scenario
Possibility of over bunching of capacities in the long term as some of the players have already announced
new capacities
Coal prices climbing up; industry players say current shortage of coal in the country is estimated to be over
10 million tones.
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PORTER’S FIVE FORCES MODEL (CEMENT INDUSTRY)
When compared to the general environment, the industry environment often has a direct effect on the firm’s
strategic actions. And Porter’s Model helps a lot in understanding the market you operate. The model tends
to examine the industry at a given state.
Threat of entry
Strong
LOW
Bargaining power of Industry Competitors rivalry Bargaining power of
Supplier’s among Existing Firms Buyers
Weak Strong Strong
Threat of entry
It involves high capital costs and has long gestation periods. Access to limestone reserves (principal raw
material for the manufacture of cement) also acts as a significant entry barrier.
Licensing of coal and limestone reserves, supply of power from the state grid and availability of railways for
transport are all controlled by a single entity, which is the government. However, nowadays producers are
relying more on captive power, but the shortage of coal and volatile fuel prices remain a concern.
Cement is a commodity business and sales volumes mostly depend upon the distribution reach of the
company. However, things are changing and few brands have started commanding a premium on account of
better quality perception.
Due to large number of players in the industry and very little brand differentiation to speak of, the
competition is intense with players resorting to expanding reach and achieving pan India presence.
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COMPANY OVERVIEW
Madras Cements Ltd. is the most reputed company belonging to the Ramco Group. The company was
established in the year 1987 at Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh. It is a completely computerized cement-
producing company and has a captive power plant which is run on gas and a 20 megawatt generator. Madras
Cements is among the major cement producers in India and has become successful in producing cement at
an economical rate. It is the proud possessor & operator of one of the largest wind-farm in India.
The cement capacity is 10 million tons per annum. The company is the fifth largest cement producer in the
country. Madras Cements has developed 3 plants producing 6 million tons of cement. The products of the
company comprise OPC or Ordinary Portland Cement, Portland Slag Cement (PSC), Pozzalana Portland
Cement (PPC). Ramco Supergrade is the most popular cement brand in South India.
Madras Cements Company is showing consistent growth in terms of profit and production. The Company’s
shares are listed in Madras Stock Exchange Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and National Stock
Exchange of India Limited.
Madras Cements Ltd is managed by a board of directors comprising of eminent personalities as its
members. The chairman of the board is Shri P R Ramasubrahmaneya Rajha, under whose dynamic
leadership the company has grown into a massive organization.
The company board brings together a team of business, administrative, financial and cement technology
professionals who provide guidance and direction to the company's operations in a competitive business
environment.
Madras Cements Ltd has been a pioneer in adopting its corporate governance practices comparable to the
best in the country.
The concrete of ready-mix variety called Ramco Ready Mix Concrete is produced by Madras Cements
which is manufactured at its Vengaivasal plant, close to Chennai. This cement is easy to use and requires a
boom-placer fitted in a truck to facilitate the construction of sky-scrapers. There are plans to establish more
ready-mix plants in the near future to cater to the needs of south-India.
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Recent Developments Plans of Madras Cements:
Madras Cements is considering plans to increase its production from 60 lakh tons to 100 lakh tons and is on
its way to increase the capacity of generation of wind power to 120 megawatt, to reduce the costs on energy.
Madras Cements is also going to set up a kiln at its Jayanthipuram unit, which will enable the production of
4,000 tons of cement on a daily basis. Another plant will soon be started by Madras Cements at Ariyalur,
Tamil Nadu to produce 20 lakh tons cement more on a yearly basis.
A sum of Rs. 967 crore is supposed to be invested for the plant which will include a 56.7 megawatt
generator run on electrical energy. The availability of fly ash in the states such as West Bengal, Andhra
Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu is attracting Madras Cements to establish grinding units to cut down the costs of
transportation.
At present the Company is facing difficulties in serving urban markets due to restrictions in movement of
heavy vehicles during peak hours and in ensuring timely delivery of cement to markets which are far off
from the manufacturing facilities. To overcome these, the Company is proposing to establish dedicated
packing plants. Accordingly, the Company is establishing packing plants at Hyderabad and Nagercoil, each
with a capacity of 120 tonnes per hour (TPH). The packing plants would help the Company in effectively
serving the market.
Madras Cements is making use of the advanced technological developments and is yet to incorporate more
improvisations to the existing structure in the near future. The latest technologies which are used in Madras
Cements Company are vertical mills to facilitate the grounding of cement, latest X-ray technology to ensure
good quality cement, surface mining technology, softwares to control the varied processes inside the
manufacturing units, bag filters, and advanced ESPs.
The Company has 2447 employees as on 31.3.2009. Industrial relations in all the Units continue to be
cordial and healthy. Employees at all levels are extending their full support and are actively participating in
the various programmes for energy conservation and cost reduction. There is a special thrust on Human
Resources Development with a view to promoting creative and Group effort.
Demand for cement is expected to grow at 10% in the coming year due to the continued fillips given for the
infrastructure projects. The Company expects to sustain and improve the output levels of all the units during
the year. Also, the Company will have the benefit of increased production from its new projects, which will
enable the Company to meet the increased market demand for cement. The Company continues its endeavor
for the sale of Blended Cement. The Company also continues to concentrate on cost reduction measures in
areas of production and distribution to protect and improve its profitability.
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VALUATION OF THE FIRM
If, (Inflation Rate + Real GDP + 1%) > the expected growth rate in the Revenue of the company. Then
Stable Growth Rate will come.
If, (Inflation Rate + Real GDP + 6%) > the expected growth rate in the Revenue of the company. Then
three stage Growth Rate will come.
Keeping all these aspects in mind we can say that the road ahead for this industry looks good. The Industry
has shown fluctuation in demand owing to recession and Madras Cements too has been affected by it. But as
the next year brings some hope, we calculated the average growth over five years and took it as growth rate
for High growth Rate Phase and accordingly for the transition phase & stable phase.
Growth Model- Since, the growth remains highly unstable the model is “Three Stage Growth rate
model”. It is the model suggested by the model chooser as well.
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Discounted CF
Type of Model (DCF Model, Option Pricing Model): Model
Current
Level of Earnings to use in model (Current, Normalized): Earnings
FCFF (Value
Cashflows that should be discounted (Dividends, FCFE, FCFF) : firm)
Length of Growth Period (10 or more, 5 to 10, less than 5) 5 to 10 years
Three-stage
Appropriate Growth Pattern (Stable, 2 stage, 3 stage): Growth
Cost of Capital
Cost of debt = Interest/ Total Debt
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Calculation of FCFF~
STABLE
HIGH GROWTH PHASE TRANSITION PHASE PHASE
G.R =
Growth rate = 30.5 % 25.50% 20.50% 15.50% 10.50% 7%
Base
year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
EBIT(1-t) @ 35% 656.14 856.26 1117.42 1458.24 1903.00 2483.41 3116.68 3755.60 4337.72 4793.18 5128.71
Dep 137.72 179.72 234.5406 306.08 399.429 521.25 680.24 887.71 1158.46 1511.79 1972.89
Capx 1284.29 728.69 950.95 1240.99 1619.49 2113.43 2758.03 3599.22 4696.99 6129.57 6129.57
Change in WC -16.48 1.98 1.74 1.53 1.35 1.19 1.04 0.92 0.81 0.71 0.63
FCFF 353.86 305.31 399.28 521.80 681.59 890.05 1037.85 1043.17 798.39 174.70 971.40
PV 286.68 352.03 431.97 529.82 649.63 711.27 671.29 482.41 99.11 4498.14
Assumptions:
The expected growth rate in operating profits is 30.5% for next 5 yrs & than moves into Transition
phase with decreasing growth rate and attains stable growth rate of 7%.
The working capital being negative increase with average rate of 12%.
Depreciation has changed as per the change in growth rate. The company uses fix line method for
depreciation.
The Company is making huge Capital Expenditure this year & its future Capx has been shown
growth accordingly in the long term.
Terminal Value of Firm
FCFF/ (Ke – growth rate)
= 971.40/ (0.13- .07)
= 7472 cr.
Total Value of Firm
t =n
CF to Firm t
Value of Firm = t
t =1 (1 + WACC)
= Rs. 4498 Cr
Value Per share
Number of Shares- 237969380
Per share = 44980000/237969380
= Rs. 189.02
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RELATIVE VALUATION~
In relative valuation I have chosen India Cements and Dalmia Cements to compare with Madras Cements.
In this we will one by one look at these ratios and comment will comment on the performance and market
price of the company’s shares.
On comparing the Market Cap/ Sales ratio, which is high for this company in the market, though
some of the players in market have better score than it. This shows that the investor sentiments are
still with this company and the investors hope this company to do well.
Madras cement has reasonably good growth prospects in the future and hence the investors are
expecting higher earnings in the future.
The P/B ratio of Madras Cement is not too low and hence the stock is not undervalued. The
company is fundamentally strong than other players. This figure is influenced by the recession of last
year.
EV/EBIDTA or the Enterprise multiple suggests that the company is on growth phase. It also says
that it is not the right candidate for takeover. The ratio varies with the industry and depends on
Industry growth rate.
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SYNERGY VALUE~
A+B: No A+B
Bidder Target synergy (Synergy)
Here the Bidding Company is ACC ltd. & the Target Firm is Madras Cements. The Bidding company has
less growth rate in the revenue comparing it with the Target company. So the merger will generate some
synergy and it would also help in growth of the firm. And if we think at strategic point of view, the
distribution channel and capacity matters in the cement Industry. The market would also expand. As far as
Gains from the synergy is concerned it is clearly mentioned in the above table that it is Rs. 8275 cr. That is
near to the revenue of bidding company it means that is lucrative opportunity for Bidder Company.
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ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED~
EVA= NOPAT –C* Cost of Capital
*NOPAT (Net Operating Profit after Tax) = Operating Profit * (1-t)
Operating profit: Rs793.5 Cr. Tax: 35% C*Cost of capital- 3723Cr*0.065.
EVA= {(793.5*.65) –242Cr}
= 515.7-242
= 273.7cr.
So, the company has added Rs.273.7Cr value to the wealth of the shareholders.
CONCLUSION
Though the scenario looks good in future, but the company also has to make some improvements in
themselves if they want to survive in the future. The company has tried expanding its horizon and scope by
involving themselves in many projects. The high degree of leverage and the high operating cost makes it a
very vulnerable company to handle. If the company merges or get acquired then the biggest challenge in
front of management will be working Capital management as it is posing quite a lot of problems now. The
Company has shown steady growth in terms of Sales turnover and has good Growth rate of about 25%.
Instead of recession hitting the industry the company has made profit of about 363.5 Cr. The company is
bound to grow in next few years and will result in growth if acquired or merged.
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