2014

Blaine Stum
City of Spokane
5/12/2014
Climate Change & Spokane:
Impacts and a Way Forward

Introduction
We are living in the world of climate change today. With concentrations of greenhouse gasses steadily
climbing, temperatures and sea levels on the rise and extreme weather events occurring more
frequently and with greater spontaneity, it is no wonder that scientists have been sounding the alarm
for over two decades now.
1
While there is a debate in the fringes of society as to whether climate
change is man-made or even happening at all, scientists from a wide variety of fields reached a
consensus years ago that climate change is happening and that is it primarily being caused by human
activity. In recent years, new data and better modeling have served to solidify this consensus even
more; to the point where they have a reached a confidence level of 95%.
2

This paper is meant to educate policy makers on the potential impacts of climate change so we as a
community can better prepare ourselves for what lies ahead. There has been a wealth of studies done
on climate change impacts in our region since the adoption of our Sustainability Action Plan.
3
Our state
has also taken even more substantive action since our action plan was released. Washington State has
been noted by the federal government as being ahead of the curve in studying ways that we could adapt
to the reality of climate change. Leaders at the state level knew that the business as usual approach
would be too costly for our state and local economies to endure. The first action steps were taken by
former Governor Christine Gregoire, who tasked state level agencies to develop action plans and
incorporate climate change impacts into their planning processes. More recently, Governor Jay Inslee
has taken a leadership role in pushing our state to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate
impacts. On April 29, 2014, Governor Inslee signed Executive Order 14-04, which outlines a series of
steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in our state.
4
These steps include:
- The formation of a Carbon Emission Reduction Task Force that will provide recommendations on
the design and implementation of carbon emission limits. The task force has already met twice
and will be meeting four more times before making final recommendations on November 17,
2014.
- Negotiations between the Governors Legislative Affairs and Policy Office (LAPO) and utility
companies to reduce (and in the future eliminate) the use of electrical power derived from coal.

1
Many scientists such as Charles Keeling, Gilbert Plass and Roger Revelle were actually raising the alarm as early as
the 1950s and 1960s. And contrary to some narratives, there was never an abundance of literature from the
scientific community predicting global cooling in the 1970s. A systemic analysis of peer reviewed literature from
that time done by Thomas Peterson of the NOAA National Climactic Data Center in 2008 reveals that there were
only 7 peer reviewed papers in a 14 year period (1965-1979) that predicted cooling of the earth. The vast majority
of the literature, even back then, was predicting global warming. For more information see: Peterson, et al. 2008.
The Myth of the Global Cooling Scientific Conesus. Journal of Climate. American Meteorological Society.
2
Number via the latest IPCC Report. Some people have used this number to suggest that 95% confidence levels
means that the science behind it is not solid or that a true consensus has not been reached. But few scientific
theories, with the possible exception of newtons theory of gravity, ever attain 100% certainty. To put the 95%
number in context, 95% is equivalent to our current level of certainty that the universe is 13.8 billion years old and
that cigarettes are deadly.
3
The amount of studies done on local impacts since 2009 has increased dramatically thanks to the Climate Impact
Group at the University of Washington.
4
http://www.governor.wa.gov/office/execorders/documents/14-04.pdf.

- Directing the Department of Transportation to develop an action to increase electric car use in
the state, as well as developing long range transportation plans for multi-modal transportation.
- Department of Commerce is set to work with WSU and other stakeholders in helping foster
research and adoption of clean, renewable energy sources.
- Implement a new energy efficiency program (via Department of Commerce).
- The Department of Enterprise Services will monitor progress on government operations and
suggest new tactics and strategies to reduce emissions and increase energy efficiency.

Summary of Recommendations
- The City of Spokane should share information on government efforts to adapt to or mitigate
climate change impacts more frequently. Currently, that information is little known in the
community.
- The City of Spokane should continue efforts to create more efficient government operations as
they relate to CO2 emissions.
- The City of Spokane should continue to work on curbing excessive water use both by the city
and by citizens in the community.
- The Mayor and City Council should create more incentives for smart growth development to
occur within our city limits and work with our partners in the county to standardize these
incentives.
- The Mayor and City Council should set aside more funding for public transit and bicycle and
pedestrian infrastructure; as well as support community groups whose goal is to increase use of
alternative modes of transportation.
- The City should work with Spokane Regional Health District to better study and prepare for
health impacts of climate change in our community.
- The City of Spokane should continue its work on urban farming and the Food Policy Council in
addressing issues such as food deserts.
The Science behind the Climate
While our knowledge of the climate
5
and how it works has expanded greatly in recent decades, it should
be noted that climate science itself dates back to at least the 1820s. This was when physicist Joseph
Fourier, after producing calculations that made it clear that the earth should be much cooler than it is
given its distance from the sun, suggested that the earth atmosphere actually insulated heat by some
means. His hypothesis was later expanded upon and became known as the greenhouse effect, which
was confirmed by scientific studies by the likes John Tyndall as early as the 1860s.
6


5
Climate is defined as the description of long-term patterns of weather in a particular area.
6
Tyndall, John. 1861. The Bakerian Lecture: On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and
on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption and Conduction. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society of London, 151: 1-36.

The greenhouse effect is simple: solar radiation from the sun enters our atmosphere. Some of that
radiation is absorbed by the earth, some of it passes through our atmosphere and goes out to space but
some of it is also absorbed and re-emitted by greenhouse gas molecules. The more greenhouse gas
molecules there are in the atmosphere, the more solar radiation that gets re-emitted into our
atmosphere, thus increasing the heat in our atmosphere. Tyndall studies were the earliest to discover
that certain greenhouse gasses are better at holding heat than others, the top two being water vapor
and carbon dioxide.
7
The chart below summarizes the impact of four different gases to the greenhouse
effect:

For much of history, the primary driver of climate change has not been greenhouse gases though, it has
been the sun. One major study looking at almost a millennium of sun-related data (reconstructions of
sunspot series and cosmic ray flux) and reconstructions of mean surface temperature in the Northern
Hemisphere found that solar activity tracked very closely with changes in the climate.
8
This does not
explain the current predicament we face however. Several studies have found that solar activity has
been decreasing as early as 1960; all the while global temperatures have continued to climb
9
.


7
While there have been some claims that CO2 has a short residence time in our climate, these claims are not
provided within the proper context. Based on a thorough review of literature and independent analysis, the IPCC
estimates that the warming potential for CO2 could be as long as 500 years. (See: IPCC 4
th
Assessment Report,
Section 2.10)
8
Usoskin, et al. 2005. Solar activity, cosmic rays, and Earths temperature: A millennium-scale comparison.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, A10102.
9
See: Lockwood, Mike. 2008. Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature: An
analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise. Proceedings of the Royal Society. Lockwood,
Mike & Frolich, Claus. 2007. Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean
surface temperature. Proceedings of the Royal Society. Foster, Grant & Rahmstorf, Stefan. 2011. Global
temperature evolution 1979-2010. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 6. Lean, Judith & Rind, David. 2008. How
natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophysical
Research Letters, Vol. 35.

The chart above displays solar irradiance, or power of
electromagnetic radiation, produced by the sun, in contrast to
surface temperatures over a 120 year time frame. As it shows, while
the two measurements moved relatively in sync in the late 19
th
and
early 20
th
century, there has been a significant departure of the two
since 1960.
The single biggest factor contributing to
climate change is the release of significant
amounts of greenhouse gasses from human
activities. While land (such as forested land)
and oceans have traditionally acted as a
sponge for greenhouse gases, the industrial
activities of our society have overwhelmed
their capacity to store these gases. As such, we
have seen massive increases in atmospheric
CO2 (the single largest greenhouse gas from
human activity).
10
This can be seen in ice core
data and recent CO2 measurements. Ice core
data show that our current levels of
atmospheric CO2, which have just crested over
400 parts per million, are higher than anything
on record for over 800,000 years.
11
The closest measurement for atmospheric CO2 to that threshold is
almost 300,000 years old, and it barely reached 300 parts million. All of this carbon dioxide, along with
the myriad other greenhouse gases coming from human activities, has led to our global climate getting
warmer.


The Currently Changing Climate
We tend to think of climate change as a problem of the future. Popular publications and studies assess
impacts a century from now. This is a laudatory goal to be sure, but it ignores the extent to which our

10
The amounts we are releasing in the atmosphere are anything but trivial. In 2012, it is estimated that global
carbon dioxide emissions reached over 34 billion tons. See: Oliver JGJ, Janssens-Maenhout G and Peters
JAHW (2012), Trends in global CO2 emissions; 2012 Report, The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency; Ispra: Joint Research Centre.
11
Data for this can be found at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/ice_core_co2.html.
Ice core data is one of the many ways that
paleoclimatologists can reconstruct CO2
concentrations and climate patterns in the
distant pass. The above graph reconstructs
CO2 concentrations over an 800,000 year
period. It clearly shows that during that time
frame, concentrations never reached the
heights they have now.

climate is changing right now. Our focus here is
not a global model however, it is regional and
local. Recently expanded datasets can give us
an idea of what the climate has been like within
the past 100 years, and thus how it has
changed since we had the ability to track
surface temperature.
According to perhaps the most comprehensive
study on temperature changes in the Pacific
Northwest (PNW) during the 20
th
century, we
have seen a temperature increase of 1.5F
between 1920 and 2003.
12
Stations close to or
located in Spokane have seen increases
anywhere from 1.38F to 1.45F from 1895 to
2010.
13
A map on the next page shows
temperature changes across weather stations
all over the PNW. What should be noted about
these temperature increases is that they are
somewhat greater than the global average
trend over the 20
th
century.
While this change in our climate has impacted
us in a myriad ways, it has had the most
profound impact on our winters.
14
For instance,
it has been found that precipitation during cool
seasons (such as the winter) has become more
variable from year to year in an analysis of precipitation trends over the past several decades, where it
used to be relatively steady.
15
Climate change has also impacted the timing of peak runoff from
mountain snow packs. As shown in the photo on this page, the timing of spring snowmelt and the time it
takes to get from the beginning of rainfall to peak runoff (center of mass of annual flow) have both
shifted to earlier dates around the region.
Finally, studies have shown that April 1 snow water equivalents (the amount of water that is contained
within a snowpack on April 1) have declined at nearly all sites in the PNW that have been studied thus

12
Mote, Phillip. 2003. Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the Twentieth
Century. Northwest Science (77): 271-282.
13
It should be noted that a small sampling of specific stations, such as the ones in Spokane, are not necessarily
reflective of broader trends happening regionally. This is why the study referenced above is so crucial, as they look
at stations all over the PNW.
14
The study found that climate change has impacted our fall season the least.
15
Hamlet, A.F. & D.P. Letternmaier. 2007. Effects of 20
th
century warming and climate variability on flood risk in
the western U.S. Water Resources Research.

far, with some sites in lower to mid-range elevations recording declines as high as 40% or more.
16
This is
important due to its potential impact on native flora and fauna and our reliance on snow packs to
provide water to our aquifer in the spring and summer months as traditional snow packs melt.

What the Future Holds
Scientists are able to model impacts at a more precise location with a technique called downscale
modeling. In the simplest of terms, this simply means calibrating a climate model to gauge impacts on a
regional or local level rather than global. In recent years, scientists have expanded regional data
collection and fine-tuned downscale modeling techniques to the point that they can now produce
climate projections with much higher confidence levels than over a decade ago.
To give a glimpse into what the future holds, this paper will look at estimates produced by an analysis of
20 climate models and two greenhouse gas emission models done by Phillip Mote of the University of
Washington and Eric Salathe Jr. of Oregon State University Climate Research institute.
17
Their
exhaustive research shows that by the 2020s, temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are projected to
increase from current levels by 1.1F for a low emission scenario (meaning we take aggressive action to
curb emissions from human activity), 2.0F for a middle of the road scenario (a scenario where we take
action, but less of it and at a slower pace) and 3.3F in a high scenario (a scenario where we do little to
curb emissions). This represents far faster increases in average temperatures than what we experienced

16
Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M. Clark, & D.P. Letternmaier. 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in western North
America, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 (1): 39-49.
17
Mote, P.W. & Slathe, Eric. 2010. Future Climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climate Change 102 (1-2): 29-50.

in the 20
th
Century.
18
And the increases only get more pronounced as we move further out. The chart
below summarizes their findings:
Years/Scenario Temperature
2020s Low +1.1F
2020s Average +2.0F
2020s High +3.3F
2040s Low +1.5F
2040s Average +3.2F
2040s High +5.2F
2080s Low +2.8F
2080s Average +5.3F
2080s High +9.7F

Their research also sought to quantify the impacts of climate change on precipitation trends in the PNW,
but the results were less pronounced than what they show for temperatures. According to the paper,
areas of the PNW are likely to see an increase in annual precipitation as it warms, particularly in the
winter months.
19
However, these increases are projected to be as small as 1-12% in the 2020s, 2-12% in
the 2040s and 4-20% in the 2080s from current averages.
20

Specific Impacts of Future Climate Change In Our Area
Heat events: One of the most well studied impacts of future climate change is the occurrence of what
are called extreme heat events. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, an extreme
heat event is defined as periods of summertime weather that are substantially hotter and/or more
humid than typical for a given location at that time of year.
21
These events can last for several days or
longer. The effects of these events are particularly acute in urban areas, where concrete and asphalt
hold heat and taller buildings block cool airflows from the street level. From 2000-2009, extreme heat
events were the leading cause of weather related deaths in the United States.
22
In our area of the PNW,
the overall risk of non-traumatic deaths during an extreme heat even varies from place to place. In

18
An average estimate of warming per decade according to the figures above suggests we will see warming at a
rate of .5F in the PNW through the mid-21
st
century. This represents a rate that is three times the increase of
temperatures per decade that were observed in the 20
th
century.
19
This may seem positive at first glance, but a significant amount of research suggests that this precipitation will
fall as rain as we begin to see the winter months get warmer. Due to our water resources being tied to natural
outflows, in particular snow packs in the mountains that melt in the spring, the less snow we see will cause added
stress to our water resources.
20
A majority of the models used in the paper also show that we will get less precipitation (on average) in summer
months than we currently do; a worrying development for water resources in our usually dry summer climate.
21
U.S. EPA. 2006. Excessive Heat Events Guidebook. EPA 430-B-06-005. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC.
22
NOAA. 2010. Natural Hazard Statistics: Weather Fatalities. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Available: http://www.weather.gov/om/hazstats.shtml. Accessed May 8, 2014.

Spokane, risks are less pronounced currently than in Seattle, although the risks increase as the duration
of extreme heat events increases.
23

One study done a few years ago sought to estimate just how much increased heat events in the future
will impact vulnerable populations and in particular whether we will see significantly increased deaths in
relation heat events.
24
The study projects that that we can expect 3.2 heat events (lasting 2.6 days on
average) in 2025 and 6.0 heat events (lasting 3.4 days on average) in 2085.
25
Climate change scenarios
used in the study project 12 to 31 excess deaths by non-traumatic causes for people aged 45 and above
in 2025, and 17 to 76 excess deaths in 2085 in the three county study areas for Eastern Washington (Tri-
Cities, Spokane and Yakima).
26
Spokane, Yakima and Tri-Cities have a projected increase that is far less
than Seattle due to the market penetration of indoor air conditioning in residential areas being much
higher in those counties than in Seattle.
27
All told, the increase in deaths related to heat events for the
three counties is not considered statistically significant.
Allergies & Asthma: Climate change can affect the quality of our air by speeding up the process through
which smog
28
is created.
29
In addition to this, rising carbon levels have been shown to induce more
pollination from plants, resulting in more allergens becoming airborne.
30
The increase in pollination is of
particular concern for those who suffer from allergic rhinitis (hay fever). In a comprehensive look at the
prevalence of allergic rhinitis in the United States from 1973-1996; the United States Environmental
Protection Agency found that the western region
31
of the United States consistently had the great
number of cases.
32
There is no micro level data on how the prevalence of allergic rhinitis affects the
economy and work productivity, but national level surveys suggest that the impact is substantial. A
study in which researchers surveyed over 8,000 employees found that allergic rhinitis had a bigger
impact on employee productivity than migraines, depression, arthritis, anxiety disorders, diabetes and

23
Jackson, J.E., et al. 2010. Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks
due to heat events and air pollution. Climatic Change 102 (1-2): 159-186.
24
The study only looked at older cohorts, and thus does not give a full picture of the impact on extreme heat
events on our public health system. It is well known that children, in particular younger children, are also more
likely to suffer negative impacts from extreme heat events.
25
Ibid, pg. 359
26
Ibid, pg. 360.
27
Estimates suggest that this will remain the case as well, with projections for 2020 suggesting that Seattle will
have an air conditioning market penetration in residential areas of around 10% as compared to 41% for Spokane,
68% for the Tri-Cities and 30% for Yakima.
28
Smog is defined as a type of air pollution that is derived via vehicle emissions and industrial fumes that react in
sunlight with secondary pollutants to form photochemical smog, which looks like a sort of fog hanging over an
area.
29
http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/airpollution.asp
30
Lewis, et al. 2003. Cities as harbringers of climate change: Common ragweed, urbanization, public health. The
Journal of allergy and clinical immunology 111 (2): 290-295.
31
The report defined the western region as the west coast as well as the Pacific Northwest.
32
United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2008. Review of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change
on Aeroallergens and Their Associated Effects. 3-7

several other medical conditions.
33
The World Allergy Organization White Book estimates the total costs
of allergic rhinitis to be as high as $20.9 billion.
34

Worsening air quality will also negatively impact those who suffer asthma. The Center for Disease
Control ranks the incidence of asthma in Washington State as one of the highest in the nation. According
to the Washington State Department of Health, 508,934 adults and 106,000 children have asthma in the
state.
35
According to the Comprehensive Hospital Abstract Reporting System (CHARS), hospital charges
for asthma totaled $73 million in 2010.
36
In that year 57,000 adults with asthma visited an emergency
room at least once due to asthma related conditions.
37
22% of Washington adults with asthma missed
work or could not carry out normal daily functions, resulting in a total of 4.3 million person-days of lost
productivity.
38
Increases in pollen and potential reductions in air quality could increase the economic
burden of conditions such as allergic rhinitis and asthma.
Snowpack and Water Resources: We are a region that, even more so than others, has been shaped by
and depends so much on water resources from natural climate processes. According to the Energy
Information Association, Washington State was the number one producer of hydro-electric power in the
United States in 2013 and accounted for 29% of all hydroelectric energy in the country.
39
More than
100,000 port jobs in the region rely on river flows and provide easy access to transport exports.
40

Perhaps most importantly, natural outflows represent the main source of water for Washingtons robust
agricultural economy.
41
As the analysis in the previous chapter hints at, the future of climate change is
going to re-shape our water resources in ways that we would be wise to do our best to prepare for. The
following research that is summarized takes a more granular, specific look at the potential impacts.
According to several academic studies, the Spokane area is currently best classified as a rain-snow mix
for watersheds, due in part to our elevation. What this means is that our water resources come from a
mix of rain and snow.
42
Despite this mixed precipitation, our area most crucial resource for water
remains the mountain snow pack. Analysis of the past several decades shows that we dont have to wait
for climate change to get worse to see impacts on snow packs. As a result of current climate change
trends, stream flows have already been impacted. In a study by Luce and Holden (2009), they found that

33
Lamb, CE, et al. 2006. Economic Impact of workplace productivity losses due to allergic rhinitis compared with
select medical conditions in the United States from an employer perspective. Current Medical Research and
Opinion, 22 (6): 1203-1210.
34
Member Society Reports in: Pawankar R, Canonica GW, Holgate ST, and Lockey RF, editors. WAO White Book on
Allergy (World Allergy Organization), 2011
35
See: http://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/DiseasesandChronicConditions/AsthmaData.aspx.
36
CHATS, 2010 Full Year Hospital Census and Charges by Diagnosis Related Group (DRG).
37
Washington State Department of Health. 2013. The Burden of Asthma in Washington State. Pg. 3
38
Ibid. pg. 3
39
See: http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA#tabs-4
40
Northwest River Partners, River Transportation Supports Billions in Commerce. May, 2012. Accessed: 4/25/14.
41
The Washington State Department of Ecology estimates that irrigated agriculture represents 90% of water
consumption in the State. Our agricultural economy creates over $9 billion worth of food, with crops and
commodities such as potatoes, wheat and milk being among the largest exports in our state. Statistic via:
http://agr.wa.gov/AgInWA/docs/2012WaAgValuesUSDAPressRelease.pdf.
42
Other categories for water sheds are rain dominant and snow dominant.

mean annual flow at gauges in Spokane dropped 20-30% from 1948 to 2006.
43
Given that much of the
Pacific Northwest relies on natural flows for water storage instead of man-made reservoirs, these shifts
have the potential to add even more stress to a water system that is already experiencing significant
pressures.
Hydropower: With respect to hydropower, studies suggest that we could see less energy being hydro
power being produced. A study by Hamlet, et al. (2010) investigated the impacts from climate change on
hydropower production in Washington State. What they found is that while winter power production
increases modestly over the two emissions scenarios (only a 4% increase in winter power production by
2040), the summer months offset the projected winter increase (they project a 10% decrease in summer
power production by 2020), resulting in a net loss.
44
Coupled with rising temperatures and more
extreme heat events that will result in increased demand in the summer months due to air conditioning
and refrigeration, our electricity infrastructure will be put under more stress as a result of climate
change.
45

Agriculture: Like other states in the northwest, Washington State relies heavily on agricultural
production to supply food and maintain a dynamic economy. The key to efficient agricultural production
in any region is the ability to provide adequate water for crops. It is estimated that the agricultural
sector in Washington State provides jobs to 160,000 people in the state and constitutes 13% of the total
state economy.
46
Locally, the same dynamic is true. According to the last agricultural census, the market
value of crop sales and livestock sales for Spokane County was just over $117 million.
47
The USDA
estimates that there is 626,329 acres of farmland in the county
48
and that the average market value of
land and buildings per farm in Spokane County is $588,545.
Due to our location and elevation, studies of the impact of climate change on future crop yields in
Eastern Washington are decidedly mixed. Crop yields for crops such as winter wheat are actually
projected to increase anywhere from 2% to 8% by 2020 due to the increase in frost-free days.
49
The
same is not true for all crops however. Projections for potatoes are a negative, with losses of up to 9%
by 2020 (and losses as high as 22% by 2080). A slight decrease in crop yields is also expected for

43
Luce, C.H. & Holden, Z.A. 2009. Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United
States, 1948-2006. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36.
44
Hamlet, et al. 2010. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest
and Washington State. Climatic Change 102 (1-2): 103-128.
45
Unfortunately, there is little in the way of reliable forecasts of what this means economically. The Northwest
Power and Conservation Council estimated that by 2020 we could either see a net gain of $777 million or a net loss
of $223 million in hydropower sales. But their model did not take into account increased air conditioning market
penetration, and as such they admit that the gains are likely overestimated and the losses underestimated.
46
http://www.mrsc.org/subjects/planning/aglands/economic.aspx
47
See: http://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/126-CropProductionMap12-13.pdf. This number does not include the food
processing industry, which accounts for another $566 million in sales in Spokane County. See:
http://agr.wa.gov/AgInWa/docs/127-FoodProcessingMap12-13.pdf.
48
Over half of the 626,329 acres is cropland.
49
Stolke, et al. 2010. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Eastern Washington Agriculture. Climate Change,
102 (1-2): 77-102. The study did not take into account the increase in extreme high temperature events which may
have a negative impact on crop yields for winter wheat.

apples.
50
The reason for the difference in projections between crops has to do with how the crops are
grown and the time at which they are in season.
Climate change wont just impact growing seasons though. It will also have an impact on diseases,
weeds and insects that have the ability to devastate crop yields. Various models forecast that the
amount of days that cherries and grapes will be at high risk for disease (such as powdery mildew with
respects to cherries) will increase. The same study found that due to earlier warming during the winter
and longer seasonal warming in the spring and summer, codling moths
51
will emerge earlier and
experience what is known as a complete third generation egg hatch.
52
The impact of this complete third
generation egg hatch would mean that apple farmers would either need to apply one or two additional
sprays of pesticides or keep the pesticides on site in dispensers; both scenarios would result in increased
cost to the farmers and consumers.
Wine Industry: Another industry within the agricultural sector that will see a shift in the coming years is
the wine industry. According to the Washington State Wine Commission, the state is second largest
producer of premium wine in the United States, with over 800 wineries and more than 350 wine grape
growers.
53
The total economic impact of this industry on the state is $8.6 billion. In Spokane, local
wineries receive the vast majority of their grapes from Yakima Valley and Columbia Valley.
54
One study
looked at the potential impact of climate change on this industry, specifically in the key states of
California, Oregon and Washington. Honing in on Columbia Valley, the researchers found that varietals
produced in the region could see a 30% reduction in suitable land area by 2040 under a conservative
scenario in which average global temperature only increases by 1.8F.
55
This confirms other research
which suggests that the west side of Washington State is poised to become a more hospitable growing
region than much of Eastern Washington (particularly in the summer).
56
How this will impact Spokane
budding wine industry remains to be seen.
A couple of facts need to be discussed with respect to the analysis on agriculture to put it in a proper
context. First and foremost, a huge chunk of the crop production in Washington State is exported to
other states or countries. The Department of Agriculture estimates that the state exported over $6.1

50
Even the projected 1% decrease in apple yields for the state could mean an economic loss of as much as $22
million from current levels however. This number was calculated by multiplying the value of sales of apples in
Washington State in 2012 (which was approximately $2.2 billion) by .01.
51
Coddling moths deposit their larva inside apples, causing two types of damages to apple crops: the sting (entry
places on the apple surface where the moths deposit their larva) and deep entries (where the larva bore to the
core of the apple and eat the seed cavity).
52
Currently, codling moths in Washington State experience two generations a year. In warm years, partial third
generations have been observed. But complete third generations are extremely rare events in the entirety of the
Pacific Northwest.
53
The total area of Washington that is used for wine grapes is estimated to be 43,889 acres. See:
http://washingtonwine.org/_assets/managed/files/16197_Washington%20State%20AVA%20Map.pdf.
54
http://www.spokanewineries.net/about/
55
Diffenbaugh, et al. 2011. Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United
States. Environmental Research Letters (6): 11 pgs.
56
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2013/11/08/napa-on-the-sound-climate-change.html?page=all.

billion in agricultural goods in 2010 alone, two thirds of which were exported to Asia.
57
In Spokane, a
study Ken Meter found that consumers in the Spokane region purchase $1.7 billion worth of food, $1.5
billion of which comes from outside of the region
58
. Second, the most productive region in Washington
when it comes to agriculture (the Yakima Valley) is projected to face increased risk of water shortages
that could negatively impact crop yields, meaning that other areas will need to increase productivity in
order to make up for potential losses.
59
Third, future climate change is projected to have a more
detrimental impact on tropical zones than temperate zones, which currently produce a hefty supply of
the worlds food.
60
Lastly, population increases, especially in less developed nations, will put increased
stress on food systems around the globe. What all of this means is that even in cases where there are
projected increases in crop yields, such as with winter wheat, the net effect on our regional and global
food system could still be negative.
Livestock: According to the United States Department of Agriculture, total sales for livestock (including
products) in Spokane County were estimated at $16.89 million in 2012.
61
Over $3 million of that was
derived from dairy products (specifically milk). Dairy cows, like many animals, are more sensitive to heat
than humans.
62
Due to this, heat stress brought on by high temperatures can result in a decrease in milk
production.
63
Future increases in temperatures as well as increases in extreme heat events in the
summer are likely to have a negative impact on milk production in Spokane by the mid-20
th
century.
64

Farmers can mitigate heat impacts on their cows by ramping up cooling systems, but this means an
increased cost of both beef and dairy related products for consumers.

57
See: http://agr.wa.gov/marketing/international/statistics.aspx.
58
Meter, Ken. 2013. Spokane Region (Washington): Local Farm & Food Economy. Crossroads Resource Center.
59
A study by Vano et al. looked at the simulated impact of climate change on reservoirs in the Yakima River Basin,
which is an area that produces most of the agriculture in our state. Using 20 different climate models, the risk of
more water shortages is projected to increase from a historical baseline of 14% of the years between 1940 and
2005 to 27% in the 2020s. By 2080, the projection is a staggering 68% without any adaptations.
60
There is little in the way of systemic reviews on what the tropics currently supply in the grand scheme of our
food system. However, many crops are climate sensitive and can only be grown in tropical regions. World
production of tropical fruits alone, such as bananas, mangos, pineapples, papaya and avocadoes, was estimated at
82.2 million tons in 2009. And integral crops to the US food supply, such as sugar cane, are grown primarily in
tropic zones outside of the country (Brazil, which falls entirely within the tropics, produces 25% of the worlds
sugar cane alone; producing 39.5 million tons in 2010-2011).
61
USDA, National Agriculture Statistics Service, Data on Spokane County. Accessed May 15, 2014.
62
http://cdrf.org/2013/09/12/heat-stress-in-dairy-cows/.
63
Heat stress causes dairy cows to change behaviors, including eating less. But the biggest reason dairy cows
decrease milk production during hot time periods has to do with the amount of energy expanded and the change
in physiologic processes when cows are subjected to high temperatures. For more information, see: West, J.W.
2003. Effects of Heat-Stress on Production in Dairy Cattle. Journal of Dairy Science (86): 2131-2144.
64
One major study by Bauman, et al. (2013) shows milk production in Yakima Valley decreasing by 7kg per cow for
daily milk production. Given the similarities between Yakima and Spokane in climate during the summer months, a
similar effect is likely in our county.

Transportation Systems: The precise impacts on
our transportation infrastructure in the PNW are
less studied than many of the other areas in this
report, but given the trends discussed earlier, the
impact will likely be mixed. During winter months,
precipitation will be more apt to fall as rain, leading
to decreased costs for snow and ice removal (on
both an economic and environmental level).
However, the increase of extreme weather events
will increase the risk of flooding and potential
increases in freeze-thaw cycles could increase the
risk of more cracks and potholes developing in our
roads. In addition to that, higher temperatures and
increased extreme heat events will have several
impacts on our roadways. Extreme heat can cause
softening of asphalt, leading to increased risk of
buckling, heat bumps and vehicle ruts.
This is not good news for a County which has a
significant backlog of needed maintenance and
repair projects for already deteriorating roads.
65
In 2006, the city estimated that the maintenance and
repair backlog was $3 million annually. A presentation by Mark Serbousek of the Streets Department in
2012 projected if the city maintains current funding levels for road maintenance, the cost of the backlog
could increase to over $400 million within 10 years.
66
Current estimates provided in a Link Spokane
pamphlet released by the Mayors office show a backlog $150 million total.
67
For state operated facilities
within the county, it is estimated that WSDOT has a maintenance backlog of $500,000 to $750,000 per
biennium with an additional $900,000 per biennium as a result of additional unfunded maintenance
costs for new facilities.
68
The conditions of our roads already contribute to increased vehicle
maintenance costs. In 2013, a national transportation research group estimated that road conditions in
the Spokane urban area cost drivers $619 a year.
69
Any deterioration of road conditions could cause that
number to go up.
The heat will also have an impact on our bridges, many of which are in substandard conditions already,
by causing greater thermal expansion at bridge joints. According to the National Bridge Inventory

65
Counties and cities across the United States are facing similar problems; even with major investments such as
bonds and levies. These investments simply have not been able to keep up with the maintenance and repair needs.
An example of this in our own state is in Seattle. The city has a deferred maintenance backlog of $1.8 billion (as of
2010). Seattle Department of Transportation noted in one presentation that despite a nine year, $365 million levy
(Bridging the Gap), the backlog continues to grow.
66
Serbousek, Mark. 2012. Deferred Maintenance Cost.
67
http://www.spokaneplanning.org/docs/Long_Range/ROW/Link_Spokane_Inlander_Insert_Brochure_1-9-14.pdf.
68
Spokane Regional Transportation Council. 2013. Horizon 2040. Ch. 2, pg. 31.
69
TRIP. October 3, 2013. Bumpy Roads Ahead: Americas Roughest Rides and Strategies to Make our Roads
Smoother.

Database, of the 33 bridges in the city limits 19 are either functionally obsolete or structurally deficient.
16 out of those 19 bridges are classified as major arterials (meaning they take a heavy flow of traffic
through major parts of the city).


The same is true for our railways, which according to SRTC account for 43% of all tonnage and 20% of
the value of commodity flows in the area.
70
Much of the railway system in our state is old and
deteriorating. Without mitigation or adaptation strategies, increases in temperatures could lead to
greater risk of tracks being distorted or damaged. This was confirmed by a study done by the
Washington State Department of Transportation in 2011.
71
That study shows several state rail lines in
eastern Washington, including one that goes directly into Spokane County, are projected to have high
vulnerability to future climate change due to the increase in extreme weather events.
Regional ecosystem: Washington State has a large forest. Over half of the state is forested land.
72
While
a big portion of Spokane County is a savanna primarily used for agriculture, there is also a significant

70
Ibid, pg. 6.
71
WSDOT, Climate Impacts Vulnerability Assessment, November 2011.
72
Campbell, Sally; W addell, Karen; Gray, Andrew, tech. eds. 2010. Washingtons forest resources, 20022006: five-
year Forest Inventory and Analysis report. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-800. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 189 p.
This graph, via the Spokane Regional Transportation Council, shows projected road maintenance
costs for Spokane County, along with forecasted revenues dedicated to road maintenance.

section of our county that is a forest area.
73
The natural beauty of the forest, along with the kinds of
recreation it provides to our area, is essential to our long term economic vitality. Unfortunately, climate
change impacts are projected to have negative consequences on our forested lands.
By the 2060s, one study projects that at least one species of pine tree could be lost in most of the
forested land in Eastern Washington.
74
The reason for this is a combination of factors brought on by
climate change: less water in forest areas, increased forest fires due to limited precipitation in the
summer months, increased risk of plant related diseases such as Swiss needle cast spreading and the
short term increase of mountain pine beetles. With respects to forest fires, the area of land burned by
fires in Washington State is projected to increase by .3 million acres by the 2020s under an average
greenhouse gas emission scenario. If we continue on our current trajectory however, the increase in
area burned by fires could be as high as 76% to 310% by 2070-2099. This would significantly impact the
amount of carbon that our forests store, exacerbating climate change even further.

Forest fires also have a significant economic impact. According to the Washington State Department of
Ecology, state fire prevention/suppression efforts could more than double under a scenario where there
is warming of 3F.
76
This means we could go from spending $26 million a year on fire prevention,
suppression and preparedness to spending over $70 million a year. And this analysis does not even take
into indirect impacts of forest fires, which one study put at 4-5 times more than the direct costs.
Another activity which our regional and local ecosystem supports is winter activities. Two of the most
often visited ski resorts in the state, 49 Degrees North and Mt. Spokane, are relatively close to the city. A
study done by Eastern Washington University on the economic impact of ski resorts in the area found
that in Inland Northwest Ski Association (INSA) counties, resorts increase output $22.94 million,

73
To get a better idea of how much forest legacy land there is in the county see here:
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/amp_fl_map_spoklinc3.pdf.
74
Rehfeldt, et al. 2006. Empirical Analysis of plant-climate relationships in the western United States.
International Journal of Plant Sciences. 167 (6): 1123-1150.
75
Littell, J. S., E. E. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J. A. Hicke, J. A. Lutz, R. A. Norheim, and M. M. Elsner, 2010: Forest
ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Climatic Change, 102, 129-158.
76
Washington State Department of Ecology. 2006. Impacts of climate change on Washingtons economy: A
preliminary assessment of risks and opportunities. 117 pgs.
This map, from a recently released
study in the United States, shows the
potential increases in area burned by
fires under a climate scenario where
there is 2.2F increase in average
global temperatures.
75


personal income by $8.9 million and business taxes by $1.28 million.
77
With warmer weather becoming
more frequent in the future, this will have a significant impact on the time the resorts open as well as
the length of the ski season. One study by Nolin and Daly (2006) estimates that the probability of warm
winters at Mt. Spokane will increase from a historical baseline of 27% for the years 1971-2000 to 50% of
the years in the future with a 1.8F warming scenario.
78

Business as Usual: The Economic Costs
One of the primary complaints about policies that are either meant to mitigate the impacts of climate
change, or at the very least help us adapt to the impacts, is that they are too economically costly. This
argument may seem attractive at first glance, but it leaves a lot to be desired. Perhaps the most glaring
aspect of the argument is that it fails to take into consideration what the economic impact will be if we
do not act or do not act enough to avert the worst climate change scenarios. Climate change has the
potential to impact myriad different activities we rely on for economic growth, so any discussion on the
economics of the situation needs to take into account the costs of inaction or little action. One study
that specifically looked at the State of Washington and the economic costs of taking little to no action
can give us an idea what the costs might be.
Water Storage: As noted earlier in this report, climate change will put our water supplies at increased
risk of running low due to decreased snow packs and hotter summers. The result, according to this
study, is a net loss in value for 17 major watersheds in the state of $7.1 billion by 2020 and a loss of $18
billion 2080 from a current value of $30.9 billion.
79

Forest harvest and wildfires: We have already discussed climate change impacts on forest fires, but this
study has a slightly different analysis than what we looked at earlier in this study. It suggests that fire
suppression related costs could go from a historic baseline of $12 million to $18 million by 2020 and as
high as $82 million by 2080. The impact of fires on harvest for timber isnt quantified in this study;
however they do look at the potential impacts of beetle infestation. They look at four different models
summarized below in terms of the impact by 2020.
80

Scenario Total Lost Value (Land harvest value)
No change from historic pattern $120 million
Reduced beetle infestation due to range shift $102 million
Increased beetle infestation due to drought $177.6 million
Combination range shift and drought $151 million


77
Buting, et al. 2005. The Economic Impact of Ski Areas Represented by the Inland Northwest Ski Association.
Eastern Washington University, Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis.
78
Nolin, Anne & Daly, Christopher. 2006. Mapping At Risk Snow in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of
Hydrometeorology 7: 1164-1171. This does not account for indirect economic benefits. The organization has since
changed its name to Ski the Northwest Rockies.
79
Adams, et al. 2010. Additional Analysis of the Potential Economic Costs to the State of Washington of a Business-
As-Usual Approach to Climate Change: Lost Snowpack Water Storage and Bark Beetle Impacts. Climate Leadership
Institute, University of Oregon.
80
Ibid. Pgs 18-21

Other major impacts: Other impacts looked at by the study are in the table below.
81

Impact Cost (2020)
Increased energy costs $222 million
Reduced salmon populations $531 million
Reduced food production $35 million
Lost recreation opportunities $75 million
Increased health related costs $1.3 billion

Sources of CO2 in Spokane
In 2009, the city released a report entitled 1990 & 2005 Greenhouse Gas Inventory. According to the
report, 53.5% of CO2 emissions in Spokane in 2005 came from transportation. To put this into
perspective, that is approximately 1,729,102 metric tons of CO2 a year from transportation alone.
82
Rail
freight and public transit accounted for only 26,847 metric tons.
83
The report estimated that the average
resident emitted 6.21 metric tons of CO2 in 2005 for transportation purposes. A recent tool developed
by researchers out of Cal-Berkeley estimates that the average resident of Spokane emitted 7.7 metric
tons of CO2 in 2013 for transportation purposes. City Government operations only represented 2.2% of
the total community emissions for Spokane, with the majority of those emissions coming from landfill
gas (over 35%) and building operations. This is all consistent with other greenhouse has inventories
done in the state, which all find that transportation is the leading contributor of CO2.
What Spokane Has Done Thus Far & What More We Can Do
A few major companies in Spokane have also exhibited a willingness to take action. Since 2002, Avista
has had what is known as the Buck-A-Block Green Power Purchase program for residential and
commercial rate payers. This program allows rate payers to voluntarily pay extra on their utility bill
which Avista then uses to support renewable energy in the area. According to their numbers,
participants have purchased 70,000 megawatt hours of renewable energy annually since 2011.
84
At the
beginning of 2013, President Thayne McCulloh approved a Climate Action Plan for Gonzaga with a goal
to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020 and 50% by 2035.
85
Other organizations such as Community
Minded Enterprises and Greater Spokane Incorporated have helped put on education seminars on
climate change and discuss ways to boost jobs in sustainable industries.
86


81
Ibid. Pg. 23
82
This represented an increase of 9.3% from the estimated CO2 emissions of transportation in 1990.
83
Copy of the report can be found here: http://198.1.35.94/wp-
content/uploads/2011/05/CityInv20081231fBL.pdf.
84
http://www.avistautilities.com/services/renewable/wind/pages/default.aspx.
85
Gonzaga University Advisory Council on Stewardship and Sustainability. 2013. Climate Action Plan: Road Map
2013-2015.
86
Greater Spokane Incorporated held its 5
th
Annual State of the Green Economy last year in October, and
Community Minded Enterprises held community workshops from 2010-2012 that were meant to educate people
on climate science and the coming impacts of climate change.

In 2001, the city joined International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Cities for Climate
Protection.
87
And in 2007, Mayor Hession signed the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection
Agreement, where cities aim to meet or exceed the Kyoto Protocol target of a 7% reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2012.
88
The culmination of efforts in the City was the
adoption of the Sustainability Action Plan by the city council in 2009. The report was the work of a Task
Force assembled by Mayor Verner after Spokane received a $75,000 to study and plan for climate
change impacts.
89
The Task Force received 800 individual contributions from the public and worked with
multiple partners in the community to finalize the report.
Within the report, there are several broad goals and strategies that were supposed to be the roadmap
for future efforts in the city. The overall goals contained in the report are as follows
90
:
1. Climate mitigation: attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG).
2. Climate adaptation: adjust practices to deal with the effects of climate change.
3. Energy security: increase energy alternatives to reduce dependence on oil.
The goals were to be accomplished through eight strategies that the Task Force recommended. These
strategies are summarized as follows
91
:
1. Improve continuously (set goals, monitor progress, share information, etc).
2. Emphasize renewable energy (specific goal that the city reach a target of 100% by 2030).
3. Promote clean mobility (non-motorized transportation).
4. Enable optimal land use (encouraging compact development and preservation of eco-system).
5. Conserve water everywhere.
6. Maximize energy efficiency.
7. Optimize operating practices (cleaner, leaner city fleet and local vendors).
8. Prepare through planning.
While the goals and strategies contained in the report are all laudable and should be encouraged, the
fact remains that the city still has much to do to reach the goals outlined in the plan. Below is a
discussion of some of the important strategies that were recommended and what progress has occurred
since council voted to support the plan.
With respects to the continuous improvement strategy, the city has not done enough to make
pertinent information widely available. The last update released by the city on climate protection
recommendations at the dedicated website for Environmental Programs was in 2011.
92
Agendas and

87
http://www.gura.com/111306/ICLEI_USA_Members-9064.pdf.
88
http://www.greenspokane.org/wp-
content/uploads/2010/11/US_Mayors_Climate_Protection_Agreement_Hession_endorsement020107.pdf.
89
New Priorities Foundation Grant. Dated March 24, 2008.
90
City of Spokane Mayors Task Force on Sustainability. March 2009. Sustainability Action Plan: Addressing Climate
Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, And Energy Security, pg. 10.
91
City of Spokane Mayors Task Force on Sustainability. March 2009. Sustainability Action Plan: Addressing Climate
Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, And Energy Security, pg. 9.
92
Website at: http://www.greenspokane.org/.

meeting minutes from the Green Team are sparse, with only three meetings being noted on the
website in 2013. The city should make an effort to advertise the website and more information about
continued progress.
In regards to encouraging alternative modes of transportation, the city has not fared well either.
WalkScore ranks us at 45 out of 100 on their walk score index.
93
In the latest Benchmarking Report by
the Alliance for Biking and Walking, only 1.5% of workers survey cycled to work, and only 3.6% walked to
work.
94
Contrast this with ACS data from 2006, which estimated that 1.2% of workers cycled to work
and 3.4% walked to work.
95
This does not represent a statistically significant change. The Benchmarking
report also has quite the bleak picture when it comes to levels of funding for bicycle and pedestrian
infrastructure on the citys behalf. In 2013, the city only dedicated $13,000 of its general fund budget
toward bicycling and pedestrian infrastructure, and the city still does not have a spending target in place
for those important pieces of infrastructure. In the past year, we have also seen the city only dedicated
bicycle and pedestrian coordinator position eliminated.
According to WalkScore, Spokane has a transit score of only 36 out of 100.
96
The maps provided below
give a visual illustration of why our transit score is so low: the amount of land that our bus system can
cover in 30 minutes or less does not even account for half the city and some areas lack an adequate
number of routes/bus lines. A more robust transit system than we currently have would result in
positive environmental impacts
97
Local agencies such as SRTC have been working with state agencies on
environmental impacts of transportation policies, and in the Horizon 2040 report they note that they
will continue to track issues that relate to the reduction of petroleum usage, greater energy efficiency
and travel behavior to better serve the community.
98
Given the centrality of transportation to climate
change and greenhouse gas emissions, the city should take a leadership role in encouraging and
expanding public transit use and increase funding for bike-ped infrastructure.

93
http://www.walkscore.com/WA/Spokane.
94
Alliance for Biking and Walking. Bicycling and Walking in the United States: 2014 Benchmarking Report.
95
Social Explorer Tables: ACS 2006 to 2010 (5 Year Estimates), U.S. Census Bureau.
96
Explanation of Transit Score Methodology: To calculate the raw transit score, they take SL(Service Level)
multiplied by MW(Mode Weight Heavy/Light Rail weighted 2X, Ferry/Cable/Car/Other is 1.5X and bus is 1X)
multiplied by distance penalty. The distance penalty is done similar to the Walk Score in that they use a decay
scale to award points based on distance as measured by time to certain amenities. To normalize the raw scores on
a scale of 0 to 100, they use a logarithmic scale where the perfect score of 100 was calculated by averaging the
score of the center/downtown core of 5 major US Cities for which they have full transit data. (Chicago, Boston, San
Francisco, Portland, DC).
97
According to a study by the Federal Transit Administration (Public Transportations Role in Responding to
Climate Change) the average CO2 emissions per passenger mile for single occupancy vehicles in the US is 0.964
pounds CO2/per passenger mile. They estimate that Spokane Transit Authority emits only 0.315 pounds
CO/passenger mile.
98
Spokane Regional Transportation Council. 2013. Horizon 2040. Appendix B, pg. 22.



Effective land use strategies are another area where the city has made some progress but still has plenty
of work to do. Since the issuance of the 2009 Sustainability Plan, there has been some positive
movement on this issue such as the development in Kendall Yards, continuing development in South
Perry and council support for neighborhood plans that emphasize efficient land use.
Recently, there has been a community wide conversation on sprawl in Spokane. As the debate unfolded
a report conducted by Smart Growth for America that looks at metropolitan areas across the country
and ranks how sprawled they are based on four different categories became used to suggest that sprawl
in Spokane is not as bad as critics suggest.
99
In the report, Spokane overall rank is 22
nd
out of 221 metro
areas when controlling for population. But a deeper look at our ranking shows we still have much to
improve upon. Our density score ranked 78
th
and activity centering score ranked 63
rd
. A sampling of
cities across the country shows that while Spokane does relatively well in terms of total land area and
population density
100
, the city can still do plenty more to increase its density.
101


City Population Total Land Area Population Density
Montgomery, AL 201,332 156.19 sq. miles 1,270.75/sq. mile
Hialeah, FL 231,941 19.7 sq. miles 11,701/sq. mile
Boise, ID 212,303 80.05 sq. miles 2,675.2/sq. mile

99
These four categories are: density/compactness, land use mix, activity centering and street accessibility.
100
Population figures, land area and population density via the United States Census Bureau.
101
The Washington State Office of Financial Management 2013 Data book ranks Spokane as the second most
populous city in the state, but 40
th
in terms of population density. (pg. 222).
The map on the left, via WalkScore, shows how far someone could get from the downtown transit
center to any place in the city in 30 minutes on a bus. The map on the right shows bus lines.

Gilbert, AZ 221,140 76.0 sq. miles 2,862.12/sq. mile
Spokane, WA 211,300 70 sq. miles 3,018.37/sq. mile
Irving, TX 225,427 68.3 sq. miles 3,194.8/sq. mile
Irvine, CA 215,529 66.454 sq. miles 3,200/sq. mile
Akron, OH 199,110 62.37 sq. miles 3,209.9/sq. mile
Madison, WI 240,323 94.03 sq. miles 3,307/sq. mile
Richmond, VA 211,172 62.5 sq. miles 3,414.7/sq. mile
Modesto, CA 201,165 37.092 sq. miles 5,400/sq. mile
Rochester, NY 210,358 37.1 sq. miles 6,132.9/sq. mile



This map shows future projections in housing density for Spokane and the surrounding
area in 2040. If the projections are close to what actually occurs, the City of Spokane
would see little in the way of high density housing (darker blue), and Spokane Valley would
still be predominantly low density housing (light green).

An in depth analysis of the census tracts used in the report shows that the problem lies primarily in the
unincorporated county areas, which all rank substantially lower than tracts inside city limits on their
composite score.
102
This is
confirmed when looking
at the record for county
planning. Recently, they
made the decision to
expand the urban growth
areas outside of the city
limits well beyond what
we needed, and in the
process went against the
recommendations of their
own Planning Technical
Advisory Committee.
103

The lack of compactness
wrought by these
decisions contributes
heavily to greenhouse gas
emissions.
A recent study done by
researchers at the
University of California
Berkeley actually found that suburban sprawl cancels out whatever benefits that are gleaned from high
urban density.
104
Another study that looked greenhouse gas emissions in Helsinki found that low-rise or
low density lifestyles contributed 14% more emissions than high-density areas.
105
Beyond studies
suggesting that sprawl disproportionately contributes to climate change, sprawled cities are also more
vulnerable to some of the impacts of climate change. A study in Environmental Health Perspectives

102
Stum, Blaine. 2014. Spokane Sprawl Methodology White Paper. Paper done at the request of Councilmember
Jon Snyder.
103
The Planning Technical Advisory Committee recommendations addressed to the Steering Committee of Elected
Officials on January 2012 called for the addition of four small areas in Moran Prairie, Pillar Rock, Ponderosa and
Southeast Valley which only amounted to 612 acres. The original expansion approved by the County
Commissioners consisted of 6,000 acres of residential and 1,000 of industrial/commercial land. Even after the state
joined a lawsuit against the County regarding the UGA, they scaled back to a smaller UGA expansion of around
4,000 acres.
104
Jones, Christopher & Kammen, Daniel. 2014. Spatial Distribution of U.S. Household Carbon Footprints Reveals
Suburbanization Undermines Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Urban Population Density. Environmental Science &
Technology 48 (2): 895-902.
105
Ala-Mantila, Sanna, et al. 2013. Greenhouse gas Implications of Urban Sprawl in the Helsinki Metropolitan
Area. Sustainability 5 (10): 4461-4478.
This chart is a visual representation of gallons pumped annually for the City
of Spokane Water Department. The black line is the linear trend line, which
shows a decrease of around 500,000 gallons since 2005.

found that the rate of increase of extreme heat events between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling
metropolitan areas was more than double the rate of increase in more compact urban areas.
106


A local model for our city to look at moving forward is the South Perry business district. Over the past
several years, development has fostered a neighborhood business district that is in close proximity to
residential zones, thus encouraging less single occupancy vehicle travel. As the maps in the appendix of
this report show, suburban sprawl contributes much more to greenhouse gas emissions than do more
urban areas.
One of the major bright spots here is that the city has achieved quite a bit in the area of water
conservation. Historical water use data provided by the Environmental Programs Department shows a
clear trend of decreasing water usage since the 1980s. Specific goals on a per person basis have been
more allusive however. The City of Spokane Drinking Water Report issued in 2013 states that the city
did not reach its water conservation pumpage target for 2012 despite making some progress (the key
problem being in the summer months). The chart below summarizes the data
107
:

A recent survey also suggests that many in the water works industry are not prepared for the impacts of
climate change. According to the American Water Works Association State of the Water Industry Report
for 2014, only 40% of those surveyed in the water works industry think that the industry is moderately

106
Stone, Brian, et al. 2010. Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to
Climate Change Than Compact Cities. Environmental Health Perspective 118 (10): 1425-1428.
107
Doug Greenlund. 2012. Report on City of Spokane Drinking Water for 2011.pg. 5

prepared to address climate change. Only 2% think the industry is fully prepared to address those
impacts.
108

According to the last available Government Energy Report (2012), the city has made some strides with
respect to more efficient energy consumption and optimizing operations.
109
In fleet motor pool, there
has been dramatic 99% decrease in gas usage since 2005. Several other departments deserve special
mention as well. The solid waste department has seen a decrease of 24% in electricity use (although
solid waste fleet saw an increase in diesel gas usage from 2005), code enforcement saw a 32% decrease
in gasoline usage, City Hall has seen a 23% decrease and the street department saw a 40% decrease in
natural gas use. A more recent step that the city is preparing to take is the conversion of their solid
waste fleet from diesel fuels to compressed natural gas.
110

Many departments also saw an increase, including the Police Department and Fire Department. And
according to the last update on climate protection recommendations,
111
the city did not achieve the
target reductions in commute trips, EPA energy star rating target and had yet to increase efficiency in
streets lights.
112
Other steps that have been taken by the City include installing energy efficient LED lights
on all red and green traffic control lights, replacing several pumps at four water stations in Spokane to
reduce consumption and a major project at City Hall to the building HVAC system.
113

There is one policy proposal that was not included in the action plan but should be singled out for
commendation: the recent adoption of urban agriculture regulations for the City of Spokane. Our
industrial food system contributes to greenhouse gases primarily via the transportation of food from
farm to consumer. The most oft cited figure is that it takes 1,500 miles for produce to get from the farm
to the dinner table,
114
but the actual numbers likely vary depending on the type of food. One study

108
American Water Works Association. 2014. AWWA State of the Water Industry Report. Pg. 3.
109
Spokane City Department of Environmental Programs. 2012. City Government Energy Report. Accessible here:
http://www.greenspokane.org/2013-2/.
110
A 2010 report from the National Academy of Sciences titled Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences
of Energy Production and Use found that compressed natural gas (CNG) has lower CO2 exhaust emissions than
gasoline or diesel. However, the benefits vary depending on where the CNG comes from. If it is shipped into the
country as liquefied natural gas and then compressed, it only reduces the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 5%. If domestic gas is used, they calculate it reduces the GHG life cycle by 15%. There is still a lot of
debate over the cumulative effects of CNG however. Several studies, including Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences (2013), Petron, et al. (2014), Santoro, et al. (2011) and Brandt, A.R. et al. (2014) have found
that the EPA consistently underestimates the amount of methane that leaks from shale deposits as a result of
fracking. A few other studies have also looked at methane emissions that occur as a result of combustion of the
CNG (Scott Wayne (2008) and Clean Air Task Force (2012)) and found that the total effect may be on par with that
of traditional fossil fuels. None of this should spell the end of natural gas usage so much as it should be a catalyst
for action to mitigate methane related leaks from fracking and use of CNG.
111
Spokane City Department of Environmental Programs. 15, Feb. 2011. Status of Climate Protection
Recommendations.
112
One of the big threads running through the recommendations is the inclusion of biofuel, namely ethanol, in the
use of vehicles for the city. In the appendix, this paper will describe why the adoption of biofuel targets is
misguided.
113
City of Spokane. The Already Green List. Updated 5/22/14.
114
http://chge.med.harvard.edu/topic/local-and-urban-agriculture.

found that the average distance for food delivery is 1,020 miles, with a total supply chain distance of
4,200 miles. The study found that red meat has the highest delivery distance as well as the highest
supply chain distance due to a number of factors including the delivery of the feed, transportation of the
animals and shipping of the meat products.
115
Enabling people to grow food for consumption close to
their residence (especially those may not have a yard or lot suitable for a garden on their own property),
sell food from their own gardens on site and raise animals will cut in to the greenhouse gas emissions
that are a result of our currently sprawled food system.
Unfortunately this information is not widely shared in the community so few people know what the city
is doing to become energy efficient. The city should continue to strive for increased energy efficiency in
its operations, and perhaps set new, stronger goals.
Conclusion
The city initially took the lead in establishing a plan to adapt and mitigate impacts of climate change, but
has since shown little progress in furthering those goals. As this report shows, the reality of climate
change is not just a problem for the future; it is a problem right now. The hope is that this report will re-
kindle the ambition of policy makers to address the risks we face due to our changing climate. We
cannot afford to take a wait and see approach any longer.














115
Weber, Christopher & Matthews, Scott. 2008. Food Miles and the Relative Climate Impacts of Food Choices in
the United States. Environmental Science Technology; 42, 3508-3513.

Appendix
Item A: Environmental Impacts of Ethanol Use
When the subject of climate change first started becoming widespread, one of the first major
innovations many cities, states and community groups jumped on was the alternative fuel source known
as ethanol. Logically, it makes sense to find alternative fuel sources for transportation given that the
majority of greenhouse gas emissions come from fossil fuel use. And on an individual level, it is easy to
see that biofuel use could be beneficial. But over recent years, many problems have come to light with
biofuels that bring into question their usefulness in combating climate change on a large scale.
Perhaps the most drastic impact has been land use. In 2007, the federal government mandated that
refineries mix a certain percentage of corn based ethanol into gasoline. This mandate, along with the
rush of people to find environmentally friendly alternatives to gasoline, has caused millions of acres of
land to be converted for corn farming. Under Obama alone, five million acres of land that was set aside
for conversion in natural areas like Yellowstone have been lost to farms that are now producing corn.
116

This conversion has detrimental effects on biodiversity (as does the fact that corn crops traditionally
require large amounts of fertilizer and pesticide per acre in order to get a decent harvest).
This has caused the latest IPCC Working Group to note in the latest report that: Biofuels have direct,
fuelcycle GHG emissions that are typically 3090% lower than those for gasoline or diesel fuels.
However, since for some biofuels indirect emissionsincluding from land use changecan lead to
greater total emissions than when using petroleum products, policy support needs to be considered on
a case by case basis.
117

A recent study found that the net benefit from burning ethanol is significantly lower than the IPCC
estimates however. John DeCicco, an energy researcher at the University Michigan, found that CO2
emissions from burning ethanol fuel are only 2% lower than petroleum, and biodiesel is actually 1%
greater than petroleum diesel.
118








116
http://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/news/local/article_5b4a9dcc-b3f5-5bc9-9ef5-16711709fae0.html.
117
IPCC 2014, Chapter 8: http://report.mitigation2014.org/drafts/final-draft-postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-
draft_postplenary_chapter8.pdf.
118
DeCicco, John. 2013. Biofuels Carbon Balance: Doubts, Certainties and Implications. Climatic Change, 19 pgs.

Item B: Sprawl and CO2 in Spokane
Below is a series of maps that shows the relationship between sprawl and inefficient land use in
Spokane County and CO2 emissions. The first map is via the American Community Survey and shows the
density of census tracts in the county, with more dense areas shaded darker. The second map is from
the Center for Neighborhood Technology. It shows vehicle miles traveled for various census tracts within
the county, with the lighter shaded area in the core representing less vehicle miles traveled per person.
The final map is via a survey in 2002 done by Vulcan which sought to quantify CO2 emissions on a more
granule level. When compared with other two maps, the connection between sprawl and increased CO2
becomes clear, as the sparsely populated outlying areas have greater CO2 annually than the more dense
area.