Pipeline Risk Assessment Essential Elements W Sample Case0113 - tcm153-535261

PipelineRiskAssessmentTheEssentialElements:AninitiativethroughcollaborationofDNVandW.
KentMuhlbauer
DetNorskeVeritasAllrightsreserved.
PIPELINERISKASSESSMENT
TheEssentialElements
(FirstpublishedinPipeline&GasJournalMay,2012)
infousa@DNV.com
www.dnvusa.com
614.761.1214
Aninitiativethroughcollaborationof
DNVandW.KentMuhlbauer
PipelineRiskAssessmentTheEssentialElements:AninitiativethroughcollaborationofDNVandW.KentMuhlbauer
1

infousa@DNV.com
www.dnvusa.com
614.761.1214
GUIDELINESFORPIPELINERISKASSESSMENT
UnderstandingPipelineRisk
Althoughpipelinescontinuetobethesafestwaytotransportfluidsoverlongdistances,accidentsstillthreatenthe
publicand/orenvironment,exposingtheindustrytoscrutiny.Concernsaboutmanagingtheserisksarereflectedin
PHMSAsrecentpublicmeetingsandintheAdvancedNoticeofProposedRuleMaking(ANPRM)ofJanuary,2011.
OneofPHMSAsprimaryaimsistoestablishbetterriskassessmentleadingtoimprovedintegritymanagementand
increasedpublicsafety.
EssentialElementsofPipelineRiskAssessment
Incollaboration,DNVandW.KentMuhlbauerintroduce
animportantsetofguidelinestoaddressaspectsof
pipelineriskassessmentnotwelldevelopedinexisting
industrystandardsguidelinesthatoptimizetherisk
assessmenteffortsofbothoperatorsandregulators.
DNVisagloballeaderinintegrityandriskmanagement
whileMr.Muhlbauerisaleadingauthorityonpipeline
riskmanagement.Thisjointeffortprovidesan
immediatelyusefulsetofcommonsensetacticstomake
riskassessmentmoremeaningful,defensible,and
acceptabletoregulators.Wehaveorientedthese
guidelinestodirectlysatisfyPHMSAsstatedgoalof
smarterriskassessment.
Ourguidelinesofferaformalizedprocesswithlogical,
structuredapproachestoefficientlyintegrateallavailable
informationintoarobustriskassessment.Theguidelines
areintentionallyconciseyetflexible,allowingtailored
solutionstosituationspecificconcerns.Atthesame
time,anappropriatelevelofstandardizationis
incorporatedtomanageexpectationsofregulatorsaswell
asthoseregulated.
Theseinitialguidelinesestablishabasicriskassessment
frameworkfromwhichtobuild.Discussionbeyondthe
essentialspresentedherewillbeavailableinsubsequent
guidancedocuments.
SmarterRiskAssessment
Measuresriskinverifiableunits
Calculatesfailureprobabilitiesgroundedin
engineeringprinciples
Fullycharacterizesconsequenceoffailure
Profilesriskalongapipeline
Integratesallpipelineknowledge
Promotesaccuratedecisionmaking
Controlsthebias
Ensuresproperaggregation
IntendedOutcomes
Efficientandtransparentriskmodeling
Accurate,verifiable,andcompleteresults
Improvedunderstandingofactualrisk
Riskbasedinputtoguideintegritydecision
makingtrueriskmanagement
Optimizedresourceallocationleadingto
higherlevelsofpublicsafety
Appropriatelevelofstandardization
facilitatingsmootherregulatoryaudits
Expectationsofregulators,thepublic,and
managementfulfilled
1

infousa@DNV.com
www.dnvusa.com
614.761.1214
asthoseregulated.
guidancedocuments.
Controlsthebias
IntendedOutcomes
managementfulfilled
1

infousa@DNV.com
www.dnvusa.com
614.761.1214
asthoseregulated.
guidancedocuments.
Controlsthebias
IntendedOutcomes
managementfulfilled
2
PIPELINERISKASSESSMENTTHEESSENTIALELEMENTS
Thisdocumentsetsforthessentialelementsforapipelineriskassessment.Theirutilizationensuresthat
meaningfulriskestimatesareproduced.Furthermore,adoptionoftheseminimumelementsfacilitates
efficientandconsistentregulatoryoversightandhelpsmanageexpectationsofallstakeholders.
Theessentialelementsareintentionallyaveryshortlist,providingafoundationfromwhichtobuilda
comprehensive(ormodifyanexisting)riskassessmentprogram.Theysupplementexistingindustry
guidancedocumentsonriskassessmentandthereforedonotrepeattheimportantissuesaddressedthere.
Applicationoftheseelementsiseasyandintuitive,asisshowninasamplecasestartingonPage5.These
essentialelementsandotheraspectsofpipelineriskassessmentwillbefullydetailedinsubsequent
guidancedocuments.
1. MeasureinVerifiableUnits
Theriskassessmentmustincludeadefinitionoffailureandproduceverifiableestimatesoffailure
potential.Therefore,theriskassessmentmustproduceameasureofprobabilityoffailure(PoF)anda
measureofpotentialconsequence.
Bothmustbeexpressedinverifiableandcommonlyusedmeasurementunits,freefromintermediate
schemes(suchasscoringorpointassignments).Failureprobability,whichcanalsobeexpressedasa
frequency,mustcaptureeffectsoflengthandtime,leadingtoriskestimatessuchasleakspermileper
yearorcosts/kmyear,etc.
2. GroundProbabilityofFailureinSoundEngineeringPrinciples
AllplausiblefailuremechanismsmustbeincludedintheassessmentofPoF.Everyfailuremechanismmust
havethefollowingthreeelementsindependentlymeasured:
Exposure(attack)Thetypeandunmitigatedaggressivenessoftheforceorprocessthatmayprecipitate
failure.Examplemeasurementunitsareeventspermileyearormilsperyearmetalloss.
Mitigation(defense)Thetypeandeffectivenessofeverymitigationmeasuredesignedtoblockor
reduceanexposure.Thebenefitfromeachindependentmitigationmeasure,coupledwiththecombined
effectofallmitigations,istobeestimated.
Resistance(survivability)Theinherentabilityofapipelinetosustainforcesanddeformationsinthe
eventofmitigationfailure.Resistancecharacteristicsaretobeevaluatedseparatelytodeterminethe
probabilityofdamagewithoutfailurevs.damageresultinginfailure.
Foreachtimedependentfailuremechanism,atheoreticalremaininglifeestimatemustbeproducedand
expressedasafunctionoftime.
3. FullyCharacterizeConsequenceofFailure
Theriskassessmentmustidentifyandacknowledgethefullrangeofpossibleconsequencescenarios
associatedwithfailure,includingmostprobableandworstcasescenarios.
3
PIPELINERISKASSESSMENTTHEESSENTIALELEMENTS(continued)
4. ProfiletheRiskReality
Theriskassessmentmustproduceacontinuousprofileofchangingrisksalongtheentirepipeline,
recognizingthechangingcharacteristicsofthepipeanditssurroundings.Theriskassessmentmustbe
performedatallpointsalongthepipeline.
5. IntegratePipelineKnowledge
Theassessmentmustincludecomplete,appropriate,andtransparentuseofallavailableinformation.
Appropriatenessisevidentwhentheriskassessmentusesallinformationinsubstantiallythesamewaythat
asubjectmatterexpert(SME)usesinformationtoimprovehisunderstandingofrisk.
6. IncorporateSufficientGranularity
Foranalysispurposes,theriskassessmentmustdividethepipelineintosegmentswhererisksare
unchanging(i.e.allriskvariablesareessentiallyunchangingwithineachsegment).Duetofactorssuchas
hydraulicprofileandvaryingnaturalenvironments,mostpipelineswillnecessitatetheidentificationofat
leastfivetotensegmentspermilewithsomepipelinesrequiringthousandspermile.Compromises
involvingtheuseofaveragesorextremes(i.e.maximums,minimums)tocharacterizeasegmentcan
significantlyweakentheanalysesandaretobeavoided.
7. ControltheBias
Theriskassessmentmuststatethelevelofconservatismemployedinallofitscomponentsinputs,
defaults(appliedintheabsenceofinformation),algorithms,andresults.Theassessmentmustbefreeof
inappropriatebiasthattendstoforceincorrectconclusionsforsomesegments.Forexample,theuseof
weightingsbasedonhistoricalfailurefrequenciesmaymisrepresentlowerfrequencyalbeitimportant
threats.
8. UnmaskAggregation
Aproperprocessforaggregationoftherisksfrommultiplepipelinesegmentsmustbeincluded.Fora
varietyofpurposes,summarizationoftheriskspresentedbymultiplesegmentsisdesirable(e.g.fromtrap
totrap).Suchsummariesmustavoidsimplestatistics(i.e.averages,maximums,etc.)orweightedstatistics
(lengthweightedaverages,etc.)thatmaymasktherealriskspresentedbythecollectionofsegments.Use
ofsuchsummarizationstrategiesoftenleadstoincorrectconclusionsandistobeavoided.
AnEssentialElementsSampleCasecanbefoundstartingonPage5.
4
Expectationsforpipelineriskassessmentgobeyondmanypipelineoperatorscurrent
methodologies.TheDNV/Muhlbauerteamstandsreadytoimproveexistingriskassessment
programsortohelpestablishnew,comprehensiveprograms.

Thiscollaborationlooksforwardtocontinuingsupportofthiscriticalissueandallothertechnical
aspectsofpipeliningworldwide.

DNVisrecognizedbypipelineoperatorsandregulatorsalikefor
itscredibility,reliabilityandtechnicalexpertise.Ournear150
yearheritageasanindependentfoundationhasgarnereda
reputationasatrusted3
rd
party.
DNVacquireditsNorthAmericanpipelinebusinessunit,
(previouslyCCTechnologies)in2005.Ourresearchscientists
andengineeringsubjectmatterexperts(SMEs)arebackedby
industryleadinglaboratoriesformaterials/technologytesting
andverification,failureanalysis,degradation,mechanical
integrityandriskmanagement.
DNVhasbeenformidablyinvolvedinthepostfailureresponse
and/orforensicinvestigationofvirtuallyeverymajorUS
pipelinefailureoverthepastquartercentury.
W.KentMuhlbauerisaninternationallyrecognizedauthority
onpipelineriskmanagementandishighlysoughtafterasan
author,lecturerandconsultant.Heactsasadvisortoprivate
industry,governmentalagenciesandacademiaworldwide.
Mr.Muhlbauerhasextensivebackgroundinpipelinedesign,
operationsandmaintenance,havingheldtechnicaland
managementpositionsinapipelineoperatingcompanyfor
manyyearspriortobecomingariskmanagementconsultant.
Mr.Muhlbauerspublishedworks,includingPipelineRisk
ManagementManualnowinits3
rd
edition,arelargely
consideredbythepipelineindustryasgotosourcesfor
pipelineriskmanagement.
infousa@DNV.com
www.dnvusa.com
614.761.1214
Pipeline Risk Assessment The Essential Elements: An initiative through collaboration of DNV and W. Kent Muhlbauer
Det Norske Veritas All rights reserved.
5

ThefollowingexampleillustratestheapplicationoftheEssentialElementsinapipelineriskassessment.
TheElementsareinherentlyflexibleallowingforalternative,yeteffective,approacheswhilethe
methodologyestablishesadesirablelevelofrigorforassessingrisk.Allriskcalculationsareefficiently
performedinavarietyofsoftwareenvironmentsnospecializedsoftwareisrequired.
Scenario: A120milepipelineistohaveariskassessmentperformed.For
theassessment,failureisdefinedaslossofintegrityleadingtolossofpipeline
product.Consequencesaremeasuredaspotentialharmtopublichealth,
propertyandtheenvironment.
Verifiablemeasurementunitsfortheassessmentareasfollows:

Minimumdata(asdefined,forexample,inASMEB31.8S)arecollectedand
includeSubjectMatterExpert(SME)estimateswheremeasurementdataare
unavailable.Thecollecteddatashowchangesinriskalongthepipelineroute
6,530segmentsarecreatedbythechangingdatawithanaveragelengthof87
ft.Thisensuresthatariskprofilewithadequatediscriminationisgenerated.
ThelevelofconservatismusedisdefinedasP90forallinputsthatarenot
basedonactualmeasurements.Thismeansthatanunderestimationofactual
riskwillariseonlyonceforeveryteninputs(i.e.theinputwillonly
underestimatethetruevalue10%ofthetimeandoverestimateactualrisk
90%ofthetime).Theriskassessorshavechosenthislevelofconservatismto
accountforplausible(albeitextreme)conditionsandensurethatrisksarenot
underestimated.
Forassessingprobabilityoffailure(PoF)fromtimeindependentfailure
mechanisms,thetoplevelequationselectedbyriskassessorsisasfollows:
PoF
timeindependent
=exposurex(1mitigation)x(1resistance)
MEASUREMENT UNITS
Risk $/year
ProbabilityofFailure(PoF) failures/mileyear
ConsequenceofFailure(CoF) $/failure
TimetoFailure(TTF) years
Exposure events/mileyear ormpy
Mitigation %
Resistance %

'Failure'and'Consequences'
clearlydefined
Measuringinverifiableunits
keepsprocesshonest:
Understandableterms
Calibratedtoreality
Meaningful,applicableresults
Fulldataintegration
Sufficientresolution
BiasControl:Clearlydefined
levelofconservatism
Groundingin
soundengineeringprinciples:
Providesafirmbasisin
science
Helpsprovidearational,
defensibleassessment
SampleCase:
PipelineRiskAssessment
5

ThefollowingexampleillustratestheapplicationoftheEssentialElementsinapipelineriskassessment.
TheElementsareinherentlyflexibleallowingforalternative,yeteffective,approacheswhilethe
methodologyestablishesadesirablelevelofrigorforassessingrisk.Allriskcalculationsareefficiently
performedinavarietyofsoftwareenvironmentsnospecializedsoftwareisrequired.
Scenario: A120milepipelineistohaveariskassessmentperformed.For
theassessment,failureisdefinedaslossofintegrityleadingtolossofpipeline
product.Consequencesaremeasuredaspotentialharmtopublichealth,
propertyandtheenvironment.
Verifiablemeasurementunitsfortheassessmentareasfollows:

Minimumdata(asdefined,forexample,inASMEB31.8S)arecollectedand
includeSubjectMatterExpert(SME)estimateswheremeasurementdataare
unavailable.Thecollecteddatashowchangesinriskalongthepipelineroute
6,530segmentsarecreatedbythechangingdatawithanaveragelengthof87
ft.Thisensuresthatariskprofilewithadequatediscriminationisgenerated.
ThelevelofconservatismusedisdefinedasP90forallinputsthatarenot
basedonactualmeasurements.Thismeansthatanunderestimationofactual
riskwillariseonlyonceforeveryteninputs(i.e.theinputwillonly
underestimatethetruevalue10%ofthetimeandoverestimateactualrisk
90%ofthetime).Theriskassessorshavechosenthislevelofconservatismto
accountforplausible(albeitextreme)conditionsandensurethatrisksarenot
underestimated.
Forassessingprobabilityoffailure(PoF)fromtimeindependentfailure
mechanisms,thetoplevelequationselectedbyriskassessorsisasfollows:
PoF
timeindependent
=exposurex(1mitigation)x(1resistance)
MEASUREMENT UNITS
Risk $/year
ProbabilityofFailure(PoF) failures/mileyear
ConsequenceofFailure(CoF) $/failure
TimetoFailure(TTF) years
Exposure events/mileyear ormpy
Mitigation %
Resistance %

'Failure'and'Consequences'
clearlydefined
Measuringinverifiableunits
keepsprocesshonest:
Understandableterms
Calibratedtoreality
Meaningful,applicableresults
Fulldataintegration
Sufficientresolution
BiasControl:Clearlydefined
levelofconservatism
Groundingin
soundengineeringprinciples:
Providesafirmbasisin
science
Helpsprovidearational,
defensibleassessment
SampleCase:
PipelineRiskAssessment
6
Thisequationisappliedtoeverytimeindependentthreatateverypointalong
thepipeline.AsanexampleforapplyingthistoPoFduetothirdparty
damage,thefollowinginputsareidentified(bySMEs)forcertainportionsof
thesubjectpipeline.Here,byindependentlymeasuringtheattacks,defenses
andsurvivability,theanalysispromotesafullunderstandingofthePoF:
Exposure(unmitigatedattack)isestimatedtobethree(3)third
partydamageeventspermileyear.
Usingamitigation(defense)effectivenessanalysis,SMEsestimate
that1in50oftheseexposureswillnotbesuccessfullypreventedby
existingmitigationmeasures.Thisresultsinanoverallmitigation
effectivenessestimateof98%mitigated.
Oftheexposuresthatresultincontactwiththepipe,SMEsperform
ananalysistoestimatethat1in4willresultinfailure,notjust
damage.Thisestimateincludesthepossiblepresenceofweaknesses
duetothreatinteractionand/ormanufacturingandconstruction
issues.So,thepipelineinthisareaisjudgedtohavea75%resistance
tofailure(survivability)fromthismechanism,oncecontactoccurs.
Theseinputsresultinthefollowingassessment:
PoF
thirdpartydamage
=(3damageeventspermileyear)x(198%mitigated)x(175%resistive)=
1.5%(0.015)permileyear(afailureevery67yearsatthislocation)
Notethatausefulintermediatecalculation,probabilityofdamage(damage
shortoffailure),emergesfromthisassessmentandcanbeverifiedbyfuture
inspections.
ProbabilityofDamage
thirdparty
=(3damageeventspermileyear)x(198%mitigated)=
0.06damageevents/mileyear(damageoccurringaboutonceevery17years)
InassessingPoFduetotimedependentfailuremechanisms,thepreviousalgorithmsareslightlymodified:
PoF
timedependent
=(TTF
timedependent
)
TTF
timedependent
=resistance/[exposurex(1mitigation)]
Tocontinuetheexample,SMEshavedeterminedthat,atcertainlocationsalongthe120milepipeline,soil
corrosivityleadsto5mpyexternalcorrosionexposure(ifunmitigated).ExaminationofcoatingandCP
effectivenessleadsSMEstoestimateamitigationeffectivenessof90%atthissamplelocation.Pipestrength
obtainedfrominspections,pressuretests,andmanufacture/constructionconsiderations,adjustedforuncertainty,
resultinaneffectivepipewallthicknessestimateof0.220(remainingresistance).
GainfullunderstandingofPoF:
Measuretheattacks,defenses,
andsurvivabilityindependently
Produceusefulestimates
evenwhendataisscarce
Verifiableunitsofmeasure,
evenforestimates
7
UseoftheseinputsinthePoFassessmentisshownbelow:
TTF=220mils/[5mpyx(190%)]=440years
PoF=1/TTF
1
=[5mpyx(190%)]/220mils=0.23%PoF
AswiththetimeindependentPoFestimates,theseequationsareappliedfor
eachtimedependentthreat(i.e.corrosionandcracking)atalllocationsalongthe
120milepipeline.
Next,potentialconsequencesareassessed.Fullycharacterizingconsequence
offailureprovidestheopportunityfortheoperatortoconsiderconsequence
controlasanelementofriskmanagement.Usingquantifiablemeasuresof
consequenceensurestheresultsarerobustandforcesconsistencyinselecting
preventionandmitigationmeasures.
Inthiscase,SMEshaveanalyzedpotentialconsequencesanddeterminedthe
rangeofpossibleconsequencesgeneratedbyvariousfailurescenarios.This
companyhasdecidedtomonetizeallpotentialconsequencesintheirrisk
assessments.Afterassignmentofprobabilitiestoeachscenario,apointestimate
representingthedistributionofallfuturescenariosyieldsthevalueof$11,500
perfailureatthissamplelocation.
Atthislocation,theabovemethodologiesareappliedandtotalrisksare
estimatedtobe0.008failures
2
/yearx$11,500/failure=$92/year.
Riskassessorsrepeatthesamplecalculationsshownaboveforeverythreatoneachofthe6,530segments
comprisingthispipeline.ToestimatePoFforanyportionofthe120milepipelinei.e.aggregationfortrapto
trapPoFaprobabilisticsummationisusedtoensurethatlengtheffectsandtheprobabilisticnatureofestimates
areappropriatelyconsidered.Toestimatetotalrisk,anexpectedlosscalculationforthefull120milesyieldsa
valueof$25,100/yearwithpermilevaluesrangingfrom$42/mileyearto$1,208/mileyearforspecificportionsof
thesystem.
Thecompanyusesthesevaluestocompareto,amongotherbenchmarks,aUSnationalaverageof$350/mileyear
forsimilarpipelines.
ThissamplecaseillustratestheintendedapplicationofTheEssentialElementsofPipelineRiskAssessment,first
publishedinPipeline&GasJournal(May,2012)andfoundintheprecedingpages.TheEssentialElementscan
alsobefoundathttp://www.dnvusa.com/news_events/news/2012/PipelineRiskAssessnebt.asp.
1
PoFas1/TTFisoneofmanypossiblerelationshipsrelatingPoFtoTTF.
2
Theaggregateofallfailuremechanismspotentiallycausingfailureonthispipelinesegment
Riskassessmentusesdataas
wouldanSME
Properaggregationof
riskestimates
Riskestimatesinverifiableunits
Generateariskprofiletovisualize
changingrisksalongthepipeline
Criticalinputfor
definingstrategicfocus:
Maintenance
Operational
Regulatory
Riskinformeddecisions
Reprinted with permission from Pipeline & Gas Journal, May 2012. On the web at www.pgjonline.com.
Oildom Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Foster Printing Service: 866-879-9144, www.marketingreprints.com.

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