Energy policies for

pro-poor low-carbon development in India

International meeting on operational pathways for
equitable low carbon development in BRICSAM countries
February 17-18, 2014
New Delhi
Ashok Sreenivas
Prayas (Energy Group), Pune
www.prayaspune.org/peg
Approach
Co-benefits based approach most meaningful for
India
Pursue low-carbon options where carbon is a co-benefit
to other developmental benefits
Many options available

Indian context
Very low energy access / usage and large infrastructure
deficit
Energy imports drain on resources
Very poor socio-environmental management regime
1
Access deficit
2
Well over 1 USA (400 million) without access to electricity
Hours of supply in rural area often as low as 2 hours
Approx. 1 Africa (1 billion) living on less than 100 kWh /household/month
Over 1.5 EU-28 (800 million) still use solid fuels, kerosene etc. for cooking
Source: Census 2011, NSSO 66th round, Prayas estimates
Infrastructure deficit
3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Houses without
concrete/brick walls
Houses without
toilets
Habitations without
all-weather roads
Villages without
primary schools
Villages without
basic health services
Half the households do not have pucca houses, toilets, basic health care
One-fourth villages have no proper road access, one-fifth no primary school
Source: Census 2011, NSSO, PM Sadak Yojana, Prayas estimates
4
Energy imports financial burden (2010)
Indian imports as % of GDP considerably high contributes 60% of
trade deficit
Supply security concerns
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Brazil China Germany India Japan South Korea United States
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G
D
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Net energy import dependence(%) Energy imports as % of GDP
Source: EIA, World bank
Socio-environmental distress
High air and water pollution
Primarily a governance failure
Poor compensation / R&R
Employment or alternative
livelihoods provided to only ~40%
of displaced
Less than half the resettled houses
had access to water
None had access to primary health
centres near by
Weak legal regime and governance

5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
RSPM (g/m3) TSS (mg/l)
Pollution near power
plants
Ratnagiri Dadri Vindhyachal
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
RSPM (g/m3) TSS (mg/l)
Pollution near coal mines
Godavari coalfield Jharia coalfield
Low-C Solutions for India
Should contribute to improving access
Cannot be expensive to the poor at least
Should not increase import dependence
Should lead to minimal socio-environmental distress
Low-C energy policies for India should satisfy these
(potentially conflicting) attributes!
Energy sector policies
Not so much about governance, institutional issues,
environmental management etc.
All equally important
6
Energy conservation / efficiency
Potential to reduce some very high-end consumption
Life-style / consumption pattern change at the top?
Better building designs?
Huge potential for efficiency improvement
Very rough estimates for potential savings
30% in agriculture,
25% in residential / commercial
15% in industry
If 60% appliance stock in 2020 is super-efficient, then
annual savings of
60 BU, 20 GW
50 MT CO2
Inexpensive
Prayas estimated cost of conserved electricity from
appliances: Rs. 0.80 2.50 per / kWh
7
Energy conservation / efficiency
Reduced consumption
More energy to go around => can increase access
Reduces imports of coal / gas => helps trade deficit
Reduces mining => reduced socio-environmental stresses
Energy Efficiency improvement should be first weapon of
choice
Government programs / actions: NMEEE umbrella
Target 19 GW / 23 mtoe saving by 2014-15
Appliance standards and labelling
SEEP for ceiling fans being rolled out
PAT for designated industries in phase I
Vehicle (car) fuel efficiency norms just announced
Issues
Standards could be tighter to accelerate efficiency improvement
BEE needs strengthening / support
Programs going slower than expected
8
Renewable energy
Good candidate for consideration
Abundant local resources both solar and wind
No local pollution, lesser social impacts
But
Costlier than conventional power as of now
Issues of intermittency and unpredictability
Ambitious targets
22 GW of solar and 100 GW of wind by 2022 through
national missions
Currently 2 GW and 20 GW respectively
15% of electricity by 2020 from renewable sources
(without large hydro)
Currently ~5%
9
Renewable energy
Way ahead
Reverse auctions drove down solar prices by ~40%
Net-metering for rooftop PV + telescopic tariffs
High end consumers pay for high cost resource
Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, AP, West Bengal, Delhi etc. adopting it
Points to ponder
Bringing down wind energy costs (auctions?)
Start thinking about socio-environmental impacts of
RE particularly land and maybe water
Intermittency, grid integration issues
Micro-grids and their integration with the grid
Promoting jobs and domestic industry?
10
Transport
Urban transport: the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework
Avoid
Retain / encourage existing advantages such as dense and mixed-use
Reduce travel needs
Shift
Protect and encourage pedestrians and cyclists
Provide (much) better public transport
Improve
Fuel efficiency of vehicles
Improves the access / mobility of poor / disadvantaged
Reduce imports (India imports 80% of its oil requirements)
Improves urban air quality
11
Transport
Increasing realization of such a shift at the national level
states / cities still catching up
Inter-city passenger and freight transport
Encourage larger role for rail
About 10 times more efficient than road/air
Better corridors, faster trains, better inter-connectivity and
logistics
Largely powered by electricity
No pollution at consumption end
Shift to RE can gradually reduce pollution at source
Long way to go in this regard
Total potential annual savings from transport by 2020
~US $4bn in imports
~50 MT CO2
12
Cooking fuels
Biomass / solid fuels use for cooking
Severe health effects
One hour cooking smoking 1000 cigarettes!
Gender impacts
Fetching fuel wood / dung
Carbon impacts
Black carbon: One estimate of 172,000 tons in 2005
Potential deforestation / denudation due to population pressure
Shifting to more efficient cook-stoves and/or modern fuels can
lower impacts
Different implications of improving efficiency / shifting to modern
but fossil fuels
Will involve trade-offs
Need to weigh options carefully
13
Cooking fuels
Some Government schemes to shift to efficient cook-stoves but
highly ineffective so far
Only ~50% of stoves being used in spite of Government paying >= 50% of
cost
NPIC
35 million units distributed
Criticised for poor stove design, high program cost, low uptake rates
New scheme announced recently
14
30% shift to Efficient stove LPG
Woman hours saved ~9 billion ~28 billion
Black carbon emissions 24,000 tons 78,000 tons
CO2 emissions 2 MT (28 MT)
Import dependence - (USD 8 bn)
Forest / green cover Maybe +ve or ve Definite +ve
Long term sustainability Possible Impossible!?
Agriculture
Contributes about 20% of Indias GHG emissions though mostly
non-energy emissions
Consumes about ~11% of the countrys energy
15
Fertilizer
39%
Irrigation
28%
Transport
15%
Mechanization
8%
Other
6%
Draught animal
+ human
4%
Domestic fertilizer production and irrigation
consume about 14 mtoe each
Fertilizers: ~10% of oil imports
Diesel: ~3% of oil imports
Options for consideration
Moving to super-pumps
More reliable, efficient suitable for utility DSM?
Gradual shift away from petroleum-based fertilizers?
Better crops / cropping patterns?
THANK YOU
16
ashok@prayaspune.org