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THE AMERICAS
Colombia's Peace Talks Backfire on Santos
FARC bombings of pipelines and electricity towers increase while
negotiations drag on.
Updated June 11, 2014 4:27 p.m. ET
Opinion Video
About a year after Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos took office in August 2010,
he launched secret peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC). Had he succeeded in getting the narco-trafficking terrorists to put
down their weapons, do time for their crimes and go straight, he would by now be a
national hero.
But after 34 months of talkingmostly in HavanaMr. Santos has no agreement, and
security in the country is deteriorating. Colombians are increasingly dissatisfied with him
as commander in chief and ever more wary of his talks with criminals. The combination
could cost him re-election.
To avoid a runoff, Mr. Santos needed more than 50% of the vote in the May 25
presidential balloting. He came up short with 25.7%, behind former Colombian Finance
Minister scar Ivn Zuluaga, who won 29.3%. The latest polls for the June 15 runoff give
Mr. Zuluaga only a narrow lead, but he undoubtedly has the momentum.
A year ago Mr. Santospart economic
liberal, part old-fashioned populist
seemed certain to keep his job. Real
gross domestic product expanded by an
average annual 4.7% from 2010-13, and in
2011 Colombian debt won investment-
grade status from all three major U.S.
credit-rating firms.
Had Mr. Santos run on this record he
might have won in the first round. Most
voters don't see much difference on
economic policy between him and Mr.
Zuluagathe former CEO of a Colombian steel fabricator. But he made the FARC talks
the centerpiece of his re-election campaign, which opened his weakest flank.
Mr. Santos is in trouble because the public's confidence in his commitment to defending
its security interests has seriously eroded. He also has underestimated how much the
Colombian people despise the FARC for its cruelty and barbarism, and how much they
distrust it.
The clandestine negotiations had been under way for a year in August 2012, when leaks
forced the government to admit to them. Mr. Santos told me in a telephone interview in
September 2012 that the rebels had approached him and that he viewed it as his
responsibility to explore the possibility of peace. He pledged, in that interview, that talks
would last months, not years.
Mr. Santos has broken that promise on grounds that his negotiators are making
Americas Columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady on
whether Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos's
can salvage his re-election bid. Photo: Getty Images
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progress. But rather than boost support for
the process, his claim has undermined it:
Colombians have reason to believe he's
not being straight with them.
The government says it has an agreement
on rural policy, but still unsettled is the
FARC's principal demand to expand
"peasant reserve zones" outside the
purview of the Colombian democracy. The
agreement on political participation by the
FARC doesn't stipulate penalties for
crimes against humanity. The rebels say that they will not spend one day in jail. Mr.
Santos promises there will be no impunity. Future "commissions" are supposed to
decide.
These perpetrators of countless atrocities want to hold public office. The constitution
prohibits it. As for the FARC's pledge to renounce the drug trade, which came,
coincidentally, just ahead of the first-round vote, it's hard not to laugh. They haven't even
gotten to demobilization and victims' compensation.
By claiming that the two sides are coming together when they are not, Mr. Santos
appears desperate. What role that rumored pressure from the Obama administration for
a deal is playing is not clear.
Mr. Zuluaga inspires more confidence on security in part because he has the backing of
former President lvaro Uribe (2002-10), who relentlessly pursued the terrorists and
restored the presence of the state in many parts of the country that had been abandoned
by previous governments.
Defense ministry statistics show that since Mr. Uribe left office in 2010, reports of
extortion are up 255% and incidents of terrorism are up 79%. There were 31 pipeline
bombings in 2010 and 39 electricity-tower bombings. In 2013, pipelines got hit 259 times
and electricity towers 69 times. All this while the rebels were talking peace.
Colombians living outside large cities suffer most from FARC brutality andlike Mr.
Uribe, who comes from a ranching familyMr. Zuluaga has lived their misery. He is a
native and former mayor of a small town in the coffee-growing region. Many voters see
him as the country's best chance to recover Uribe-era law and order. Mr. Zuluaga says
that any talks with the FARC ought to be contingent on cessation of guerrilla hostilities.
The announcement over the weekend that the two sides have agreed to discuss the
possibility of a truth commission won't reassure skeptics. It is only an agreement to talk
more, and the timing is too cute.
Mr. Santos has been dropping hints that he would like to shrink the armed forces after he
gets his peace agreement. The president frames the runoff as a choice "between those
of us who want to put an end to the war and those who want a war without end."
That's insulting to the Colombian people, who know that peace at any price is no bargain
and it explains why the incumbent is struggling.
Write to O'Grady@wsj.com
Colombian President and candidate for re-election
Juan Manual Santos European Pressphoto Agency
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THE AMERICAS
Dilogos de Paz en Colombia se revierten
contra Santos. Los bombardeos de FARC contra oleoductos y
torres de energa incrementan al ritmo de las negociaciones.
Updated June 11, 2014 4:27 p.m. ET
Opinion Video
Al ao de posesionado como Presidente de los Colombianos en Agosto de 2010,
Juan Manuel Santos se embarc en negociaciones secretas con las Fuerzas
Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia - FARC. De haber logrado desarmar a los
terroristas y someterlos a la justicia para que paguen por sus crmenes, Santos sera
a la fecha un hroe nacional. .
Pero luego de 34 meses de dilogos - principalmente en La Habana - Santos no tiene
ningn acuerdo, y la seguridad del pas va en deterioro. Los Colombianos estn cada
vez mas insatisfechos con su gestin como Comandante en Jefe y cada vez mas
escpticos de los dilogos con FARC, lo cual puede costarle la reeleccin.
Para evitar la segunda vuelta, Santos necesitaba ms del 50% de la votacin del
pasado 25 de Mayo. Santos se qued corto con solo un 25,7%, detrs del ex ministro
de Hacienda Oscar Ivn Zuluaga, quin gan con 29,3%. Las ltimas encuestas para
las elecciones de Junio 15 pronostican la victoria de Zuluaga, el hombre del momento.
Un ao atrs Santos - mitad liberal y
mitad populista - pareca seguro de
mantenerse en el cargo. El Producto
Interno Bruto creci 4,7% en promedio
entre 2010 y 2013, y en 2011 la deuda
colombiana gan status de Grado de
Inversin por parte de las tres mas
grandes calificadoras Americanas.
Si Santos hubiera basado su campaa
en sus records probablemente hubiera
ganado la primera vuelta. Los votantes
no ven diferencias entre las polticas
econmicas de Santos y Zuluaga. Pero Santos hizo de los dilogos con FARC la
pieza central de su campaa reeleccionista, lo cual abri su flanco ms dbil.
Santos est en problemas porque la confianza del pblico en su compromiso de
defender la seguridad se ha erosionado gravemente. Ha subestimado el desprecio
de los colombianos a las FARC por su crueldad y barbarismo, y subestimado la
reinante desconfianza hacia los terroristas.
Las negociaciones con las FARC se sostuvieron clandestinamente por un ao hasta
Agosto de 2012, cuando filtraciones forzaron al gobierno a admitirlas. Santos me
inform en entrevista telefnica en Septiembre de 2012 que los rebeldes lo haban
contactado y que el consideraba su responsabilidad explorar la posibilidad de la paz.
En dicha entrevista prometi que los dilogos duraran solo meses, no aos.
Santos ha roto esa promesa bajo la excusa que sus negociadores han hecho
Americas Columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady on
whether Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos's
can salvage his re-election bid. Photo: Getty Images
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progresos. Pero en vez de ganar apoyo,
sus excusas lo han debilitado al punto
que los colombianos desconfan de su
falta de sinceridad.
El gobierno dice que logr acuerdos en
polticas rurales, pero siguen sin resolver
las pretensiones de FARC de expandir
sus Zonas de Reserva Campesina por
fuera de la legislacin colombiana. Los
Juan Manual Santos European Pressphoto Agency acuerdos de participacin poltica de las
FARC no estipulan penas por
crimenes contra la humanidad. Los rebeldes dicen que no pagarn ni un da de
crcel. Santos promete que no habr impunidad, pues supuestamente esto se
decidir "en el futuro".
Ellos, que son responsables de crmenes atroces, quieren tambin curules en el
congreso. La Constitucin lo prohibe. Ante el anuncio de las FARC de renunciar al
narcotrfico, el cual se di coincidencialmente das antes de la primera vuelta, es
difcil no reir. Ni siquiera han hablado de desmovilizacin ni reparacin a vctimas.
Al reclamar en que las dos partes se estn poniendo de acuerdo cuando en realidad
es lo contrario, Santos luce desesperado. No hay claridad sobre la rumorada presin
que la administracin Obama estara ejerciendo para que se logre un acuerdo.
El candidato Zuluaga inspira mas confiaza en el tema de Seguridad porque el tiene el
respaldo del ex presidente lvaro Uribe (2002-10), quien sin descanso persigui a los
terroristas y recuper la presencia del Estado en muchas partes del pas que haban
sido abandonadas por anteriores gobiernos.
Estadsticas de MinDefensa muestran que en 2010 los reportes de extorsin crecieron
225% y los actos de terrorismo un 79%. Hubo 31 ataques contra oleoductos y 39 a
torres elctricas en 2010. En 2013 hubo 259 ataques a oleoductos, y 69 contra torres.
Todo esto mientras los rebeldes supuestamente hablaban de paz.
Los colombianos en reas rurales sufren con mas fuerza la brutalidad de las FARC y al
igual que Uribe, provienen de familias campesinas - el mismo Zuluaga ha vivido esta
miseria. l es nativo y ex alcalde de un pequeo pueblo de la regin cafetera. Muchos
votantes lo ven como la mejor opcin para recuperar la ley y el orden perdidos de la
era Uribe. Zuluaga dice que cualquier negociacin con FARC debe partir de un cese
unilateral de hostilidades.
El anuncio del pasado fin de semana sobre los acuerdos para formar una comisin
de la verdad no convence a los escpticos. Se trata solamente de un acuerdo para
expandir los dilogos, en un momento en que los tiempos se agotan.
Santos ha estado insinuando que el quisiera reducir el tamao de las Fuerzas
Militares una vez logrado un acuerdo. El Presidente enmarca las elecciones en una
escogencia "entre aquellos que quieren poner fin a la guerra y aquellos que quieren
una guerra sin fin".
Esto es un insulto para los colombianos, quienes no aceptarn la paz a cualquier
costo, y eso explica el por qu Santos hoy est contra las cuerdas.
Write to O'Grady@wsj.com
Colombian President and candidate for re-election
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