http://www.frbsf.org/publications/educatio n/greateconomists / Economics Introduction The word "economics" is derived from oikonomikos, which means skilled in household management. Although the word is very old, the discipline of economics as we understand it today is a relatively recent development. Modern economic thought emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries as the western world egan its transformation from an agrarian to an industrial society. !espite the enormous differences etween then and now, the economic prolems with which society struggles remain the same" #ow do we decide what to produce with our limited resources$ #ow do we ensure stale prices and full employment of our resources$ #ow do we provide a rising standard of living oth for ourselves and for future generations$ %rogress in economic thought toward answers to these &uestions tends to take discrete steps rather than to evolve smoothly over time. A new school of ideas suddenly emerges as changes in the economy yield fresh insights and make e'isting doctrines osolete. The new school eventually ecomes the consensus view, to e pushed aside y the ne't wave of new ideas. This process continues today and its motivating force remains the same as that three centuries ago" to understand the economy so that we may use it wisely to achieve society(s goals. Mercantilists Mercantilism was the economic philosophy adopted y merchants and statesmen during the 1)th and 17th centuries. Mercantilists elieved that a nation(s wealth came primarily from the accumulation of gold and silver. *ations without mines could otain gold and silver only y selling more goods than they ought from aroad. Accordingly, the leaders of those nations intervened e'tensively in the market, imposing tariffs on foreign goods to restrict import trade, and granting susidies to improve e'port prospects for domestic goods. Mercantilism represented the elevation of commercial interests to the level of national policy. Physiocrats %hysiocrats, a group of 18th century +rench philosophers, developed the idea of the economy as a circular flow of income and output. They opposed the Mercantilist policy of promoting trade at the e'pense of agriculture ecause they elieved that agriculture was the sole source of wealth in an economy. As a reaction against the Mercantilists( copious trade regulations, the %hysiocrats advocated a policy of laisse,-faire, which called for minimal government interference in the economy. Classical School The .lassical /chool of economic theory egan with the pulication in 177) of Adam /mith(s monumental work, The Wealth of Nations. The ook identified land, laor, and capital as the three factors of production and the ma0or contriutors to a nation(s wealth. 1n /mith(s view, the ideal economy is a self-regulating market system that automatically satisfies the economic needs of the populace. #e descried the market mechanism as an "invisile hand" that leads all individuals, in pursuit of their own self-interests, to produce the greatest enefit for society as a whole. /mith incorporated some of the %hysiocrats( ideas, including laisse,-faire, into his own economic theories, ut re0ected the idea that only agriculture was productive. 2hile Adam /mith emphasi,ed the production of income, !avid 3icardo focused on the distriution of income among landowners, workers, and capitalists. 3icardo saw a conflict etween landowners on the one hand and laour and capital on the other. #e posited that the growth of population and capital, pressing against a fi'ed supply of land, pushes up rents and holds down wages and profits. Thomas 3oert Malthus used the idea of diminishing returns to e'plain low living standards. %opulation, he argued, tended to increase geometrically, outstripping the production of food, which increased arithmetically. The force of a rapidly growing population against a limited amount of land meant diminishing returns to laor. The result, he claimed, was chronically low wages, which prevented the standard of living for most of the population from rising aove the susistence level. Malthus also &uestioned the automatic tendency of a market economy to produce full employment. #e lamed unemployment upon the economy(s tendency to limit its spending y saving too much, a theme that lay forgotten until 4ohn Maynard 5eynes revived it in the 1678s. .oming at the end of the .lassical tradition, 4ohn /tuart Mill parted company with the earlier classical economists on the inevitaility of the distriution of income produced y the market system. Mill pointed to a distinct difference etween the market(s two roles" allocation of resources and distriution of income. The market might e efficient in allocating resources ut not in distriuting income, he wrote, making it necessary for society to intervene. Marginalist School .lassical economists theori,ed that prices are determined y the costs of production. Marginalist economists emphasi,ed that prices also depend upon the level of demand, which in turn depends upon the amount of consumer satisfaction provided y individual goods and services. Marginalists provided modern macroeconomics with the asic analytic tools of demand and supply, consumer utility, and a mathematical framework for using those tools. Marginalists also showed that in a free market economy, the factors of production -- land, laor, and capital -- receive returns e&ual to their contriutions to production. This principle was sometimes used to 0ustify the e'isting distriution of income" that people earned e'actly what they or their property contriuted to production. Marxist School The Mar'ist /chool challenged the foundations of .lassical theory. 2riting during the mid-16th century, 5arl Mar' saw capitalism as an evolutionary phase in economic development. #e elieved that capitalism would ultimately destroy itself and e succeeded y a world without private property. An advocate of a laour theory of value, Mar' elieved that all production elongs to laour ecause workers produce all value within society. #e elieved that the market system allows capitalists, the owners of machinery and factories, to e'ploit workers y denying them a fair share of what they produce. Mar' predicted that capitalism would produce growing misery for workers as competition for profit led capitalists to adopt laour-saving machinery, creating a "reserve army of the unemployed" who would eventually rise up and sei,e the means of production. Institutionalist School 1nstitutionalist economists regard individual economic ehaviour as part of a larger social pattern influenced y current ways of living and modes of thought. They re0ected the narrow .lassical view that people are primarily motivated y economic self-interest. 9pposing the laisse,-faire attitude towards government(s role in the economy, the 1nstitutionalists called for government controls and social reform to ring aout a more e&ual distriution of income. Keynesian School 3eacting to the severity of the worldwide depression, 4ohn Maynard 5eynes in 167) roke from the .lassical tradition with the pulication of the General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. The .lassical view assumed that in a recession, wages and prices would decline to restore full employment. 5eynes held that the opposite was true. +alling prices and wages, y depressing people(s incomes, would prevent a revival of spending. #e insisted that direct government intervention was necessary to increase total spending. 5eynes( arguments proved the modern rationale for the use of government spending and ta'ing to staili,e the economy. :overnment would spend and decrease ta'es when private spending was insufficient and threatened a recession; it would reduce spending and increase ta'es when private spending was too great and threatened inflation. #is analytic framework, focusing on the factors that determine total spending, remains the core of modern macroeconomic analysis. Summary <conomic theories are constantly changing. 5eynesian theory, with its emphasis on activist government policies to promote high employment, dominated economic policymaking in the early post-war period. =ut, starting in the late 16)8s, trouling inflation and lagging productivity prodded economists to look for new solutions. +rom this search, new theories emerged" Monetarism updates the >uantity Theory, the asis for macroeconomic analysis efore 5eynes. 1t reemphasi,es the critical role of monetary growth in determining inflation. 3ational <'pectations Theory provides a contemporary rationale for the pre-5eynesian tradition of limited government involvement in the economy. 1t argues that the market(s aility to anticipate government policy actions limits their effectiveness. /upply-side <conomics recalls the .lassical /chool(s concern with economic growth as a fundamental prere&uisite for improving society(s material well-eing. 1t emphasi,es the need for incentives to save and invest if the nation(s economy is to grow. These theories and others will e deated and tested. /ome will e accepted, some modified, and others re0ected as we search to answer these asic economic &uestions" #ow do we decide what to produce with our limited resources$ #ow do we ensure stale prices and full employment of resources$ #ow do we provide a rising standard of living oth for now and the future$ hat are the three fundamental !uestions that Economics endeavours to answer """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""". """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""". """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""". #ut the main ideas into the time line 1730 $ecade opens with #eace in Europe Ben%amin Franklin begins #oor Richard&s 'lmanack in #hiladelphia( #enns)lvania *ohn +a) patents fl)ing shuttle( a ma%or landmark in te,tile mass production( leading to te,tile mills in England -oltaire writes .ettres sur les 'nglais championing democratic government $avid /ume creates empiricist philosoph) in his Treatise on /uman 0ature ar of *enkins& Ear begins when England declares war on 1pain 1740 ar of the 'ustrian 1uccession breaks out among ma%or European powers ar of *enkins& Ear spreads to Florida and 2eorgia *ohann 1ebastian Bach issues second volume of The ell3Tempered Clavier The Treat) of 'i,3la3Chapelle ends ar of the 'ustrian 1uccession. 4a%or powers again at peace in Europe $avid /artle) writes 5bservations on 4an( arguing that one&s moral sense is derived from an association of ideas 1750 6nterest on Britain&s national debt falls from 789 to :9 $enis $iderot and *ean d&'lembert begin publishing Enc)clopedia Ben Franklin flies kite with ke) proving that lightning is like an electric spark 1amuel *ohnson publishes $ictionar) of the English .anguage. Economist Francois ;uesna) founds the #h)siocrats( who advocate laisse<3faire economic policies Claude3'drien /elvetius publishes $e&l&esprit arguing that self3interest is the primar) motive of human conduct 1760 1even =ears& ar ends with the Treat) of #aris and the Treat) of /ubertusberg *. *. Rousseau published The 1ocial Contract arguing that government must rest on the consent of the governed *oseph #riestle) issues an Essa) on First #rinciples of 2overnment anticipating *erem) Bentham&s ideal of >greatest happiness for the greatest number> Bo)cott of imports begins in Boston to oppose ta, on lead( paint( paper and tea 1770 Boston Tea #art) protests tea ta, in 'merica after its repeal in England First Continental Congress meets in #hiladelphia and writes a $eclaration of Rights and 2rievances Revolutionar) ar begins in Concord( 4assachusetts Continental Congress on *ul) ?( 7@@A adopts the $eclaration of 6ndependence 'dam 1mith writes 6n!uir) 6nto the 0ature and Causes of the ealth of 0ations 1780 Revolutionar) troops defeat British at =orktown( -irginia to gain independence 6mmanuel +ant publishes Criti!ue of #ure Reason Britain( B1'( France and 1pain sign the Treat) of -ersailles recogni<ing the independence of the Bnited 1tates of 'merica First paddle wheel steamboat sails on the 1aone River( France B.1. Constitution signed in #hiladelphia( #enns)lvania and ratified within a )ear French Revolution begins in 7@CD with the storming of the Bastille #rison 1790 $ollar becomes the currenc) unit of B1' Eli hitne) invents the cotton gin Thomas #aine writes The 'ge of Reason 0apoleonic ars rage throughout Europe following the end of the French Revolution British 2overnment introduces income ta, Thomas 4althus completes Essa) on the #rinciple of #opulation 1800 0apoleonic Code( a s)stem of laws( is introduced in France B1' bu)s .ouisiana Territor) from France *ean3Baptiste 1a) writes Treatise on #olitical Econom) .ewis and Clark e,pedition e,plores and maps western continental B1' .udwig von Beethoven publishes Eth and Ath 1)mphonies 1810
1pain&s 1outh 'merican colonies struggle to gain independence alter 1cott publishes averle) beginning popularit) of historical romance novel British invade B1' and burn ashington $C in ar of 7C7F. Treat) of 2hent ends war ellington defeats 0apoleon at aterloo. 0apoleonic ars end with the Congress of -ienna deciding the future map of Europe David Ricardo publishes rinciples o! olitical Econom" and #a$ation
18%0 #homas Robert &althus publishes rinciples o! olitical Econom" 4ichael Farada) develops primitive electric motor The 4onroe $octrine e,presses B1'&s opposition to e,tension of European influence in the estern hemisphere Erie Canal is opened for shipping ebster publishes 'merican $ictionar) of the English .anguage estern 'ustralia coloni<ed b) British The orkingman&s #art) formed in 0ew =ork 1830 The Baltimore and 5hio becomes first railroad in B1' .ouis *ac!ues $aguerre invents the first practical photographic process C)rus 4cCormick patents a mechanical reaper 1amuel Colt patents his revolver 1amuel 4orse develops telegraph and 4orse Code for sending/receiving messages 6saac #itman develops a s)stem of shorthand writing -ictoria becomes ;ueen of England 1840 *ohn 1tuart 4ill publishes #rinciples of #olitical Econom) #otato crop failure in Europe causes an estimated F.E million to starve 2old is discovered in California Factor) 'ct in Britain limits the working da) of women and children to 78 hours 1eries of republican revolutions in Europe end in failure and repression +arl 4ar, and Friedrich Engels publish Communist 4anifesto *ohn $eere invents plow with a steel mold3board
1850 5ld3'ge insurance introduced in France Elisha 5tis demonstrates safet) elevator at 0ew =ork Fair of 7CE? /enr) Bessemer revolutioni<es steel industr) with new converter process Charles $arwin publishes 5n the 5rigin of the 1pecies b) means of 0atural 1election First oil well in B1' is drilled in Titusville( #enns)lvania
1860 Civil ar begins at Fort 1umter( 1outh Carolina 6ssue of 2reenbacks to help finance the Civil ar marks the beginning of modern currenc) in B1' Etienne .enoir invents internal combustion engine in France 0ational Banking 'ct establishes a s)stem of federall)3chartered banks in the B1' Civil ar ends when 1outh surrenders at 'ppomatto, Courthouse( -irginia +arl 4ar, begins writing $as +apital 'lfred 0obel invents d)namite Bnion #acific and Central #acific railroads meet in Btah 1870 The 1tandard 5il Compan) is founded b) *ohn $. Rockefeller Cit) of Chicago destro)ed b) fire 2erman) adopts the mark as its currenc) Financial panic in Europe spreads to B1'( causing withdrawal of foreign capital 'le,ander 2raham Bell invents telephone Thomas 'lva Edison invents the phonograph and electric light bulb 1880 /einrich /ert< identifies radio waves 2ottlieb $aimler builds first automobile 1890 .abor unrest erupts in B1' when workers strike the Carnegie 1teel Compan) 'lfred 4arshall publishes #rinciples of Economics B.1. Congress enacts 6ncome Ta, 'ct( but 1upreme Court declares it unconstitutional /enr) Ford produces his first automobile
1900 2uglielmo 4arconi transmits messages across 'tlantic with wireless telegraph 5rville and ilbur right make first heavier3than3air machine flight 'lbert Einstein publishes Theor) of Relativit) Earth!uake and fire destro) much of 1an Francisco Financial panic in 7D8@ begins with the fall of the 1tock 4arket and causes man) banks to close 2old 1tandard 'ct enacted in B1' #a)ne3'ldrich Tariff 'ct raises tariffs on imports into B1'
1910 4arie Curie discovers radium Federal Reserve 'ct creates central bank for the B1' 'ssassination of 'ustria&s 'rchduke Francis Ferdinand brings about orld ar 6 2ilbert .ewis develops electron theor) of valenc) e,plaining structure of atoms Revolution overthrows monarch) in Russia #aris #eace Conference redraws map of Europe after orld ar 6 and establishes the .eague of 0ations 19%0 omen in B1' receive the right to vote #rohibition begins in the B1' as sale of all alcoholic beverages becomes illegal 2erman) suffers financial collapse as h)perinflation destro)s value of the 4ark B.1. 1teel Compan) abolishes twelve hour work da) and seven da) work week 'le,ander Fleming discovers penicillin Charles .indbergh makes first solo airplane flight across the 'tlantic Collapse of 1tock 4arket ushers in decade of economic hardship
1930
orldwide $epression worsens( fostering the rise of political e,tremists /awle)31moot Tariff Bill sets highest duties in B1 histor)( hurting world trade *ames Chadwick discovers the neutron( Carl 'nderson discovers the positron B.1. repeals #rohibition 'mendment #resident Franklin Roosevelt begins 0ew $eal government spending programs 'dolf /itler becomes Chancellor of 2erman) allace Carothers produces #ol)mer AA( or n)lon 2erman) invades #oland starting orld ar 66
1940 *apanese bomb #earl /arbor and B1' enters war against *apan( 2erman) and 6tal) B) 7D?? war rages throughout the world >$ $a)> offensive b) B1'( Britain and allies begins end of war in Europe 2erman) surrenders in 'pril 7D?E B1' drops atomic bombs on /iroshima and 0agasaki. *apanese surrender The Bnited 0ations is formed *ohn Bardeen( alter Brattain( and illiam 1hockle) invent the transistor Communist forces sei<e power in China 1950 Cold ar between B1' and Russia develops as Russia builds an atomic bomb +orean ar breaks out as 0orth +orea invades south +orea. ar ends in 7DE: Electricit) produced b) atomic power in B1' *ames atson and Francis /. C. Crick describe the >double heli,> structure of $0' B06-'C is first mass produced computer *onas 1alk develops anti3polio vaccine Russia launches 1putnik 6( the Earth&s first spacecraft B.1. 1upreme Court orders desegregation of public schools 1960 Russia launches first man into space #resident +enned) establishes #eace Corps to assist underdeveloped countries Rachel Carson writes 1ilent 1pring marking concern with environmental pollution 4artin .uther +ing leads massive Civil Rights demonstration in ashington( $.C. #resident +enned) is assassinated in $allas( Te,as -ietnam ar intensifies as B1' begins massive militar) buildup. 'nti3war movement begins on college campuses 6srael defeats 'rab forces in 1i,3$a) ar B1' lands astronauts on the moon
1970 E!ual Rights 'mendment to B1 Constitution passes Congress but fails to be ratified b) the necessar) number of states #resident 0i,on resigns in the wake of the atergate scandal Following 6sraeli3'rab ar in 7D@:( oil3producing countries double oil prices causing energ) crisis and economic hardship -ietnam ar ends as 1outh -ietnam surrenders and B1' evacuates troops Eg)pt and 6srael sign historic peace accord 1980 #ersonal computers change the wa) businesses do busines Environmental issues become a ma%or concern for most 'mericans '6$1( a disease destro)ing the human immune s)stem( becomes pandemic B.1. sees rise of the largest federal budget deficit in histor) Free market emphasi<edG deregulation of airlines and 1H.&sG stock market boom