Proc.

IVth International Conference and

Field Workshop on T, ~nds l i des , 1 9 8 5 , Tokyo
A New Method for Predicting the Failure
Time of a Slope
Fukuzonu, T.
Sationrl It~nearuh Ccntcr for Disaster Prrvcntion
Ihnraki, Japan
SmOPSI S
A basic formula on the veloclty of surface displacement just before t h e f a l l ur e o f a slape is
proposed and it is madc clear that the curves wrltten by each p o i n t of t h e inverse number of the
v c l o c ~ t y of surface diaplacernent are divided into three k i n d s of forms, these a l e linear, convex a n d
concave and decrease u n ~ i o r r n l y ~n any case. In t h e case o f a l i n e a r curve, t h e failure trme of a
slope can be exactly predicted by the p o l n t at whi ch the straignt line cr osses the axls of absclssa.
In the case of a convex or concave curve, the .allure tlme can be roughly pccd~ct ed by t he point at
which the tangential line at each point of the curve crosscs the axls of absc~ssa. Furthermore, ~t
1s clear that the curve writtcn by each t l m e p r e d ~ c t e d roughly is linear. So t h e f a l l u r e time can
be exactly predicted by t h e point a t whi ch t h e straight line crosses the axls of absclssa. The
avallabilrty 01 these methods IS shown by a p p l i c a t i o n t o some types of slope failure.
INTRODUCTION
The new method for predicting t h e f a i l ur e
t i m e of a slope proposed in thls paper is a
method using t he variations of surface d~splace-
ment just b e f m r e tltc failure.
Saito and Uezawa ( 1 9 6 1 ) performed many creep
tests of so11 and proposed t h a t t he increment O
t h e loqarithm o f crecp r u p t u r e llfe (dl 1s
proportional to the logarithm eE straln rate ( k ' )
in the secondary creep. That is
is 1 / B. Hut t h e factor can be deci ded not befot e
b u t after t h e f a t l u r e , because t he values of 5
are different at each slope failure.
Tn t h ~ w papcr , a new method f o r predicting
the failure time usi ng the inverse number of
velocity of surface displacement 1s proposed.
In the case of cquatlontz), the failure time can
be exactly predicted by t h l s met hod. A l s o i n
t h e case of equationtJ), tile fallure tlme can be
ex ac t l y p r e d i c t e d b y us l ng more than two rough
f a ~ l u r e time known at different time.
. I
l og[de) .= c-m.log(E)-------------------- (1
BASIC F'ORMJLA FOR VELOCITY OF SURFACE
w h e r e c=2.33+0.59 and m=0.916 are constants. DISPLnCEMENT JUST BEFORE FAILURE
A ~ ~ u m i n g that m equal s 1 a n d t; is the time
to failure a t each time (t) in t h e st age of Thc variations of surface displacement in
tertlary creep, the equatlon was appllcd to slope failure caused by rainfall was studied in
prcdlct t h e f a l l us e time of a slopa ( Sa i t o , many k ~ n d s of exper i ment al models arp shown ~n
1 9 6 5 ) . That lo
F i g . 1 by Fukuzono and Terashlma(l982) and
log(L-k) = c-log(&)--------------------
I 2 1 40" f l at 40"mvex 30' flat 3o0con-
where tl is t h e failure time and i s strain rate.
Based on these formulas Ill and ( 2 1 , Saito
proposed t w o ways wh i c h are r ough predlctasn
methods, by the strain rate In the secondary
creep range, for long term and exact predlctlon
by calculation and graphical a n a l y s l s using t h e
surface dlsplacement or s t r a i n lust before t h e
f a i l u r e i n the t ert i ary creep range. B u t I n t h e
t er t i ar y creep range, some slope failures which
are not represented by t he equation(2) have been
reported by Yarnaguchl(l978). In these cases,
the proportional number o f t hr logarlthm of the
time to fallure and t h e logarlthm of the s t r a i n
rate IS not u n i t y as shown below:
where A and B a r e const ant s.
Based on thc cguation(31, Yamaquchi(l978)
has proposed that the f a i l ur e time can be exactly
predicted by multiplying the time obtained by
Salto's met hod by the f a c t or of correctlcn, t h a t
F i g . 1 Profiles o f four typs of
experimental models.
Fukuzono(l984). It has be e n made clear that the
l o g a r i t h m of accelelatlon of s urf ace displacement
increases in proportion to the loqarithm of
vel o c ~ ty of surface displacement as shown
in Fig.2 and 3 . The relatlon l a
I
where x is downward surface dlsplacement: d$/dt'
is acceleration: dx/ dt is veloc~ty; a and 6 are
const ant s.
1 (40 to 2 min.
' before failure)
3d FLAT.LCIAM
( 40 to 2 min.
before failure )
a=2. 0
*.
.:" /
Pig.2 The relatlmship bet- the velocity
and the acceleration of surface displacement
in the fmal stage of slope f a l Pm
on the 40' and 30' lm slapes.
40' Iun,mmxldi 40' SAND,pLAT
(25min. to 30sec (2lhnin. to 30sec.
10'
kf o m fail? 1 before f uur e)
-.
Fig.3 'Ihe relationship betm the vel aci t y
and the acceleration of surface d~spla-t
j us t before the fallure of the sand sl~pe with
40' mnvex and 40" flat bases.
Equation ( 4 ) i s i nt e gr a t e d for t h e range of
a)O as follows:
I
-
1- 4
a < l---e = 1- + (t+t )&-----------
dt
15
-refore t h e relationship between t he v e l o c i t y
of surface displacement and the time t o fallure
j u s t before t h e f a i l u r e is generally represented
by the equatlon ( 7 ) or ( 8 ) .
A METHOD W R PREDICTTNG THE FAILURE TIME
Equatlon ( 7 ) is transformed a s follows:
where t,, t, and t, are constants of i n t e g r a l .
d was i n a range 1.5 to 2.2 il the
experiments. Also the values calculated from t he
relationship between the ve l oc l t y of surface
displacement and the time to failure i n ac t ual
sl ape failure which were proposed by Yoshlda and
Yachl ( 1 9 8 4 ) are 1. 70 to 2.13. Furthermore, the
equation ( 7 1 is transformed as follows:
r I dx
l og (tp-t = A-B .log (-1 ---------------- (8)
dt
where 6=-log l a (d-11 I ; BLd-1
The form of the equation I & ) becomes similar
to the equation ( 3 1 , if is substituted for dx/ dt .
where l/v is l/(dx/dt), that is inverse number
of v e l o c i t y of surface displacement.
The equatlon shows t h a t t h e curve drawn for
each p o i n t of t a nd l / v is l i ne a r i f 64=2,convex
~f d) 2 and concave if l ) d ) 2 and that t h e value
u n ~ f o r m l y decreases. Ty p i c a l figures of t h e
curve are illustrated i n Pig.4. In any case,
the curve CainF near to tp As t h e velocity is
flnite, The relationship is n o t repres ent ed by
t he equation (9) at t h e near perlod of t,. But
the period 1 s very short, so In t h ~ s paper ~t
t r is assumed t o be t h e f a i l u r e time. me.
". Failure
Ln
L1
w
>
.. -
I
H
t -*
time: t
Fig. 4 Typical figures of the changes
of the Inverse n-r of velocity of surface
d i s p l a mn t just before the falure.
In the case of d = 2 , the failure time can be
exactly predicted by a point t at which t h e
straight l ~ n e of inverse number of veloclty
crosses t he a x i s of abs ci s s a. Also using t he
i nverse numbers of ve l oc i t y at two different
times, the failure tlme can be calculated as
follows;
I n the case of d = 2 , t he failure t i m e
pr e di c t e d by these methods equals t h e time
pr e di c t e d by Saito's method In the range of error
of caLculation and drawlng, because t h e basi c
formula h a s the same form.
In the case of ds.2. the f ai l ur e time can be
roughly pr e di c t e d by t he poi nt at which the
t angent line of the curve of inverse number of
velocity at any time crosses the axis of
abscissa. Also the failure time can be e x a c t l y
predicted by the next method.
he e qua t i o n ( 7 ) 1 s differentiated by t and
rearranged as follow;
Th i s equatlon shows t h a t the c u r v e drawn far
each v a l ue of (l/vl/(dllJv)/dt) and t is
linear and uniformly decreases. So the failure
t r me can be exactly predicted by the time at
whl ch the curve is expected to cross t h e axis of
abscissa. Also using t h e i nvers e number of
velocity and t he increment of oncs at two
d i f f e r e n t tlmes t he failure time can be
cal cul at ed by t h e next equat i on;
Fur t he r mor e , a grayhlcal method bascd on the
curve of i nverse numbex of veloclty is shown I n
Fig.5. F i r s t , a tangent llne is drawn at any
point Q, which is In a vertlcal d ~ r e c t i o n to the
a x i s nf abs c i s s a from point TI, on t he curve. Tci
is t h e polnt at which the tangent l l n e crosses
the axi s of abscissa. A is plotted at the point
whi ch is apart from the abscissa In a vert i cal
di r e c t i o n for t h e same distance o f m<, In the
s a m e way, P, is plotted. The abscissa t, of the
point Tr at which a s t r ai ght l l n e connecting P,
and P,crasses the a x l s of abscissa is t h e f a ~ l u r e
t i m e .
Cur ve of inverse number
Time: t
Fi g . 5 Graphical method f or
predicting t h e time of slope failure
i n the case of d f 2 .
The theory is v e r i f i e d as f ol l ows ;
(ma) /(mJ equals (m& / (-J in Fig. 5 .-
m-m and T, 0-TI 0 are substituted for TI Tb and
m, Th a t is
- - - -
- P I T, ' T, O - P J T x ' T ~ O -----
T + O = - - (13
PI TI - Pa Tr
---
Al so, ~ i ; ~ , = ~ , / t a n ~ , , PA T p T t ~ T ~ Q, q / t a n 8 z --(I41
As t h e lines of Q, TtI and Q,Tczare t h e tangent Ilnes
on the curve of inverse number o f veloclty at t h e
point Q, and Q, (times are t I and t~):
"('/v) I , , t a n - ~~~z- - - - ( l ~)
t a n B, = - (r
d t
Al so, m~th m=4, m=tl, VP( ~/ V) , , mz=(l/~)I
----
( I 6) The equations ( 1 4 1 , ( 1 5 ) and ( 16) are
substituted f or the equation ( 1 3 ) and after the
transformation, equat i on / 1 2 ) i s obtained.
Another graphi cal method 1s s hown in Fig.6.
In this method, polnts PI and P, are pl ot t e d in a
vertical direction n o t at po l nt s T, and T2but a t
points TC, and TI
Ti m e : t
F i g . 6 Another gr aphi c al method
for predlctlnq the time of slope
failure In t he case of 642.
APPLfCATIOH FY)R PAST SLOPE FAILURE
These proposed met hods were applied to some
k i n d s of slope failure executed experi ment al l y
In t h e pa s t to estzmate t h e availab~lity. An
example whl ch was a ppl i e d to t he failure of the
4 0 " loam slope w l t h a flat bottom boundary
parallel to t he surface is shown in Flg.7. T h e
curve of inverse number o f velocity of surface
displacement 1s convex in t h e period from 60
r nl nut es to 10 mi nutes before failure and l x n e a r
from 1 0 ml nutes t o 2 0 seconds before Eallure.
us i ng the tangent llne of t he curve the failure
time can be predicted to wi t h i n an error of 1
mi n u t e in the period from 10 minutes to 20
seconds before failure. Al so a curve obtained by
O-.
Ry a method
' ' Tf f or t h e case
4 of d f 2
6 0 5 0 40 30 2 0 i o +
Tl me to failure ( mi nut es)
Failure
F i g . 7 Var ~at i on of the Inverse number of
v e l x l t y and surface displacement In the failure
of the 40" loam slope with a flat bttm h d a r y
parallel to the surface.
a graphical me t h o d in t h e case of d+Z is shown in
thc same f i q u r e . As O: 1 s not constant a l l the
time, the c ur ve i s n o t l ~ n c a r . B u t the failure
time predlcted by t h c curve is more exact than
the time predl ct ed by t he crossing p o i n t of t he
tangent line of t h e curve of inverse number o f
vel oc3. t y and the axis of abscissa and t h e alarm
for evacuation c an be gi ven more safely.
Another example which was appl~ed to the
f a l l u r e of the 30' loam sl ope with a flat bottom
boundary parallel to t he surface is s h o wn in
Fiq.8. In this case, t he curve 1s linear a t 30
mlnutes bef ore failure. So the faxlure time can
be exactly predl ct ed from approximately 3 0
mi nut e s before allure by u s l n g o n l y the curve
of inverse number o f ve l oc i t y.
2 30T40
30' FLAT. LOAH
Inverse number of
2 0
" 20
1 1 1 I 1
50 40 30 20 lo Fa,,.!,
Time te fai l ure [ mi n u t e s 1
fig. 8 Variatlm of the inverse n m k r of
velocity and surface dsplacement In the failure
of the 30' Iwm slope with, a f l a t h t t w n k md a r y
parallel t.o the surface.
Ot h e r exampl es which were applied to t he
f ai i ur e of the sandy sol1 slope are shown i n
Fig.9-11. Usuallyn the duration from the beginning
of surf ace mo v e me n t to the final failure in sandy
soil slope i s shart cr than t h e one i n loam slope
and t h e p a t t e r n is vcry complex. Ne v e r t h l e s s t h e
f a l l ur e t i m e can be sufficiently pr e dl c t e d by
t h e curve of inverse number of veloc~ty,
h
f Inverse n m k r of
LY f 2 + 2 0 2 $ Y
4 0 30 20 lo pailbre
Time to failure ( mi n u t e s l
Rg. 9 Variations of the i nve r s e nu*r of
velcxrlty and surface aspl a-nt In t he
f al l ur e of rhe 40" sandy sol1 slqw! with a
flat h t t m boundary ~ r a l l e l to tth surface.
1.
/':
Inverse number of
v e l o c i t y !
Tlme to failure ( m i n u t e s hFaiLufc
Fig. lO Variatlms of t h ~ inver* .cudxr
of velrxlty and surface d_lsplacemnt in the
failurc of the 40' sandy sol1 slope wi t h
a convex httan boundary.
Inverw numbe r ,
w
0 \
1 l D p 2 YE: ; o%s\ <4
%
8 0
"2
. + 4 0 20
'Flm to failure ( mi n u t e s 1
Fa1 lure
Fig. ll Varlatlms of the lnversc nunJber of
-rrelocit y and suf ace displacement i n -&
failure of t k 30' sandy SOIL slope w i t h a
flat bttm boundary pallel to the surface.
APPLICATIONS UNDER FAILURE OF MODEL SLOPES
Two slope models havlng t he ground surfaces
of 4 0 and 3 0 degrees par al l el to the i mpervi ous
bottom boundary w i t h mortar and both sldes
bounded by vertical s t eel walls, were prepared t n
estimate the availability of the proposed mcthod
to predl ct the f a ~ l u r e time ag are ahawn UI
Fiq.12.
The sorl l ayers were made from t he coheslv~
sol1 of volcanic ash (called XANTO LOAM) having
a liquid-limlt of 0 0 . 6 $, a pl a s t i c i t y i n d e x of
1 8 . 2 , a coheslan of 70 q/crn: an angl e o f
internal frictlnn of 2 0 " u n d e r the dry density
of 0-47 q/ cm3 and a w a t e r c o n t e n t equivalent, t o
100 8 of dry weight. The initial conditions and
major results of the experiments a r e shown *n
Table I. An over vlew of t he 30' slope model
~ u s t before the experim~nt 1s shown i n Photo. 1.
Mater1al:KAATO LOAM
Concrete foundatlo
30' LOAM, FLAT A 9
Materia1:KANTO LOAM
Width:400, Uni+.:cm
---- F i n a l s l l d i n g ,q
surf ace
* waswing pi n& '
of surf ace
30'
G. C.
Pig.12 Fmfiles of s l p mxlels by loam of 40'
and 30" in surface gradient w i t h a flat bottm
boundary parallel kc t he surface.
Ptrrto. 1 -,::e:- 3f 5P.e 3 2? ' ; ?a: slope v:c&l
k f y r e t h e kyinnlna of e x p e r k n t .
Artificial r a l n f a l l was s u p p l i e d
continuously by a large scale rainfall s ~ m u l a t o r
ln National Research C e n t e r f o r Disaster
Prevention at an intensity of 2 D mm/h for the
bot h slope model s.
Surface displacement were measured by me a n s
of extensometers having t h e accuracy of 0.1 mm
at 5 rneasurlng points I n each model as are s hown
In F i q . 1 2 .
Ta b l e 1 I n l t l a l condrtions a nd maj or
results of experiments.
4o0s l W 30"slope
O r y density Ig/cm3) 0.49 0.49
f n l t i a l wat er cont ent ( % ) 100.1 99.8
Rainfall ~ntensity [mn/h) 20 20
Failure t m (mm.) 280.6 500.7
4 0 " SLOPE MODEL
The 40' slope model undeswent small scale
collapse 4 h o u r s 40 mlnutes 37 seconds a f t e r the
b e g i n n i n g of r a i n f a l l . A final slldlng surface
1s drawn by a broken llne in Pig. 12.
Three curves of the i n v e r s e numbe r of
veloclty of surface displacement obtained under
experiment at t he measuring point 2 , 3 and 4 ar e
s hown I n Flg. 13. Th e inverse numbers. of
veloclty a t each t i me w e r e c a l c u l a t e d by a
dlgltal comput er from the d i g ~ t a l value lnto
whlch a A-D conver t er changed the out put s of
extensometers and were pl ot t e d continuously by
a X-Y plotter.
13:OO 1 1 13:30 , 1 I L4.00 1 I 4 1 , ' I L
+.
Time
~ a l - u r e
pig.13 Variations of the inverse n m h r of
~ l c e i t y under falPure of t k 40' loam slupe.
collapse 8 h o u r s - 2 0 r n i n u t ~ s 41 seconds a f t ~ r the
beqinnlng o f rainfall. A f i n a l sliding surface
is drawn by a broken Line I n Fig. 12.
Thr ee curvnR oE inverse number of velocity
of s u r f a c e di ~pl acer nent nbtained under experi ment
at t h e me a s u r ~ n g points 2 , 3 and 4 are shown
In Fig. 14. Ths val ues of each t i m e w e r e
obtained t h e same way as in t he case of 4 0 ' slope
model. In this case, the curves were linear E r o m
30 minutes before failure. I n splte of t h e fact
that t h e gradients of t h e t hree curves were
different each othcr, a l l curves came toward a
same p o i n t on the a x j s oP a bs c j s s a , that i s the
failure t i m e . The variation of t h e lnverse
number of velocity at measuring polnt 3 was
A l l curves were convex, so t he failure time
could not be predicted exactly, b u t roughly.
I f one of the methods proposed in t h e case of 6 %2
was a p p l i c d , it mlght be posslble to predict the
failure time e xa c t l y.
30- SLOPE WDRL
The 30" slope model u n d e r we n t mi ddl e scale
CONCLUSION
fig.14 Varlations of the inverse n-r of
velocity under farlure of the 30"loam slope.
monitored wi t h t h e vi e w of f a i l u r e on a
television. These are shown in Photograph 2 and
3 . Using t hese me t hods t h e exact failure time
coul d be predicted continuously from
approximately 30 minutes before fallure and t h e
experiment was closed successfully,
M . 2 V s w of X-Y plotter plotL ~ r q ~r>vr~r.-r-.
n W r of velaclty under expermnt.
f n this paper , a new method for predlctinq
the failure tlme of a slope has been proposed.
The major dl s t i nc t l v e f eat ure of t h e rnpthod i s
that the i nv e r s e number of velocity and not the
displacement or strain rate in s urf ace 1s used to
predict the failure trme. The f ai l ur e t i m e c a n
be easlly predicted by using a curve drawn
continuously by t h e lnverse numbers of velocity
of surface displacement at each tame. Also in
cases that cannot be exactly pred~cted by Saito's
method, t h e rough fallure trme can be e a s i l y
predicted by usi ng the tangent llne of the curve
and exactly predicted by a s t r a ~ g h t l i n e dr awn
by the rough predicted time.
It is hoped that the proposed method will
apply in practical sl ope f a i l u r e .
The experiments were performe8 by uslng a
large scal e rainfall s l r nul at or i n National
Research Center f or Disaster Prevention.
H , Aoki , a t e c h n l c l a n assisted In t he operation
of t h e simulator. Thl s assistance i s gratefully
acknawledgod.
REFERENCES
Fukuzono, T. and Terashima, H. (1982)
Experimental study of t he process of f a i l u r e
ln cohesive soil slope caused by rainfall (in
Japanese), the Report of the National Research
Center for Disaster Pceventlan, 2 9 , pp. 103- 122.
Fukuzono, T. ( 1984) A method f o r predicting the
failure time of a sandy soil sl ope u s ~ n g t h e
i nver se number of velocity [in Japanese), Proc.
of 23rd Meeting of Japan Landslide Society,
pp. 80-&1.
Saito. M. and Ue z a wa , H . (1961) Failure of soil
due to creep, Proc. of 5 t h I. C. S. M. F. E . ,
pp. 315-318
Sai t o, M. I 19651 Forcasting the time of
occurrence of a slope failure, Prec. of 6th
I . C. S. M. F. E . , pp. 5 3 7 - 5 4 1 .
Yamaguchi , S . ( 1 9 7 8 ) Some notices of
countermeasure for landslide and slope failure
( ~ n Japanese), Landslide Prevention and Slope
Stability 2 , Soqo Doboku Laboratory, pp. 14- 24.
Yoshida, T. and Yachi, M. (1984) On the velocity
of landslide (in Japanese) , Proc. of 23rd
Meeting of Japan Landslide Society, pp. 136-
139.
m . 3 Yl cw of t . r l c v ~ ~ l o n showing inverse
n m k r of wl ml t y untkr exprirrent.