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Week Ended: September 19, 2008

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Treasury Yields
Highlights
Domestic
In 2013-14, Indias GDP expanded at 4.7%, a notch
higher than 4.5% in 2012-13, due to sluggish
performance by manufacturing, mining, construction
and logistics.
Indias fiscal deficit in 2013-14 stood at 4.5% of GDP,
lower than 4.6% projected in the revised estimate,
mainly on account of curbs on government
expenditure. Revenue deficit is 3.2% of GDP.
Effective revenue deficit is 2% of GDP. The fiscal
deficit stood at 4.9% in 2012-13.
Index of Industrial production (IIP), the index of
mining, manufacturing and electricity registered
growth rates of 1.1%, (-)1.6% and 7.6% respectively,
in Q4 of 2013-14, as compared to the growth rates of
(-) 3.8%, 3.1% and 2.3% respectively in these sectors
in Q4, 2012-13.
Indias CAD narrowed sharply to US$1.2 billion
(0.2% of GDP) in Q4 of FY14 from US$18.1 billion
(3.6% of GDP) in Q4 of FY13 which was also lower
than US$4.2 billion (0.9% of GDP) in Q3 of FY14.
International
South Korea recorded an unadjusted current account
surplus of $7.12 billion in April 2014.
The US GDP contracted in the first quarter of 2014 at
an annual rate of 1%.
Japan's industrial output dipped 2.5% in month of
April 2014.
Japans consumer price rose 3.2% from a year earlier
in April 2014.


G-Sec Yields Current
Type (%) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
1 Year 8.61 -6 -24 -6 130
2 Year 8.62 -5 -24 -20 130
5 Year 8.59 -5 -24 -41 127
10 Year 8.73 -3 -24 -42 137
15 Year 8.78 -10 -29 -47 135
20 Year 8.78 -11 -29 -48 130
30 Year 8.80 -8 -28 -45 132
10 Y Benchmark 8.64 -2 -16 -23 123
Change Over (Basis Points)

Money Supply & Credit Growth (%)
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
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(
%
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M3 Bank Credit

Reserve & Broad Money Trends
23-May-14
Money supply (Rs crore) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Cash Reserve Ratio (%)* 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
M3 (Money Stock)** 9702100 17.4 0.2 3.8 13.9
Reserve Money 1719000 -0.4 1.3 5.8 11.1
Total Currency 1371200 -0.5 2.2 6.2 10.8
Bank Deposits with RBI 344020 -0.2 -2.5 3.7 11.4
Other's Deposits with RBI 3770 51.4 72.1 196.9 94.1
Growth over (%)

*Absolute values for previous periods also.
** Corresponds to 16-05-2014
Inflation (%)

0
3
6
9
12
15
18
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Monthly Inflation Rate (%) in India
Primary Fuel Manufacturi ng WPI







Weekly Market Analytics
CCIL Economic Research

Week Ended: 30-05-2014
13

CCIL Economic Research

Weekly Market Analytics

Week Ended: May 30, 2014

G-Sec Spreads Top Five Traded Government Securities
Current
Type 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
1/10 Year 12 9 11 48 5
2/5 Year -3 -3 -3 18 1
5/10 Year 14 13 14 16 4
10/15 Year 4 11 10 9 7
10/20 Year 4 12 9 10 12
Before (Basis Points)

Security Description
Total Avg Total Avg
8.83% G.S. 2023 169992 33998 17131 3426
8.12% G.S. 2020 20701 4140 2009 402
8.28% G.S. 2027 16825 3365 2143 429
8.24% G.S. 2027 14665 2933 1600 320
8.35% G.S. 2022 12619 2524 1393 279
Vol (Rs. Crore) Trades

G-Sec Trade Volumes (Rs crore) T-Bill Cut-off Yields
Current
1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
G-Sec Vol. 295041 296797 154690 77491 244669
Daily Avg. 59008 59359 38673 15498 48934
Before

Current
1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
91 Days 8.65 8.65 8.86 9.15 7.31
182 Days - 8.71 - 9.10 -
364 Days 8.70 - 8.92 - 7.29
Before


CCIL Bond Indices (Total Return Index)

CCIL Bond Indices Vs 10-Y Benchmark Yield
Current
CCIL Index 1Week 1Month 3 Month 1 Year
CASBI 1704.3 0.6 2.4 4.8 0.2
Bond (Broad) 1839.5 0.6 2.3 4.7 0.2
Bond (Liquid) 1736.8 0.6 2.3 4.8 -1.2
SDL 1668.3 0.9 2.4 5.8 -0.7
T-Bill Index 156.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 5.5
Growth Over (%)

*T Bill Index Base = 100.
Rest of the Indices Base = 1000.

7.1
7.4
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
8.9
9.2
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
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Y
i
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(
%
)
I
n
d
e
x
Bond (Broad) CASBI SDL 10Y Yiel d


Money Market Rates CCBOR & MIBOR
Current
(%) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Call 7.67 -27 -97 -67 40
Repo 7.97 -5 -74 -74 69
CBLO 7.58 -43 -114 -62 32
Change over (basis points)

Current
(%) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
CCBOR 7.46 -53 -55 -49 99
CCBID 7.46 -53 -48 -49 130
MIBOR 8.02 -1 -52 -6 74
MIBID 8.01 2 -49 -6 74
Change Over (Basis Points)

Money Market Volumes (Rs crore)# Money Market Volume Share (%)
Current
1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Call 86900 70236 93576 77504 95532
Repo 168604 133971 156782 107067 173823
CBLO 249238 280077 211918 340305 256820
LAF Rev* 19510 23487 23008 11769 4685
LAF Repo 54640 67373 73254 98419 444830
Before
* Reverse Repo up to Thursday
# Excluding Saturdays

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Current
1 Week
1 Month
3 Month
1 Year
B
e
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CBLO
Repo
Call


13

CCIL Economic Research

Weekly Market Analytics

Week Ended: May 30, 2014



MIBOR OIS

MIFOR
Current
Sector (%) 1Week 1Month 3 Months 1Year
1Year 8.39 0 -21 -29 -31
2 Years 8.10 -4 -22 -38 -30
3 Years 8.08 -5 -24 -44 -33
5 Years 8.10 -6 -25 -52 -33
Change Over (basis points)

Current
Sector (%) 1Week 1Month 3 Months 1Year
1Year 8.40 25 35 -35 5
2 Years 7.78 3 8 -58 -7
3Years 7.81 3 9 -45 6
5Years 7.93 6 5 -33 33
Change Over (basis points)

OIS/G-Sec Spread (Basis Points) Interest Rate Derivatives Volumes (Rs. Crore)
Current
(basis pts) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
2 years -52 -54 -53 -47 -48
5 years -49 -49 -49 -44 -47
Before


Current
(Rs. Cr.) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
MIBOR-OIS 34950 -6 0 -6 -33
MIFOR 1890 -16 5 65 37
Growth Over (%)


MIFOR/OIS Spread



5Y OIS/G-sec Spread (Basis Points)
Basis Pts
Sector Current 1Week 1Month 3 Months 1Year
1Year 1 -24 -54 8 -34
2 Years -32 -38 -61 -12 -54
3 Years -27 -35 -60 -26 -66
5 Years -17 -28 -47 -35 -83
Before





-80
-70
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-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
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5Y OIS - G-Sec Spread


Forex Spot (FX-Clear)



INR Relative to Major Currencies (Base: 1-Apr-06 = 100)
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
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Spot USD/INR
Spot Rate 3M MVG 6M MVG

110
130
150
170
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INR Exchange Rate
(Base: 1-Apr-04 = 100)
USD GBP EURO YEN

Exchange Rates of Major Currencies Forward Premia
Current
1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
USD 59.03 58.48 60.53 61.95 54.89
GBP 98.91 98.67 101.77 104.02 83.66
EURO 80.34 79.81 83.92 84.95 70.58
YEN 58.10 57.57 59.01 60.97 53.54
Before

Current
1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
1 Month 8.14 8.25 7.82 11.10 6.70
3 Month 8.30 8.16 7.82 9.58 6.19
Before





13

CCIL Economic Research

Weekly Market Analytics

Week Ended: May 30, 2014
Commodity Price Trends (USD) US Treasury Yields
Current
(Oz/barrel) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
Gold 1257.78 -2.90 -3.09 -5.66 -10.00
Silver 18.73 -3.63 -5.55 -11.84 -15.84
Crude-WTI 103.40 -1.44 3.58 1.47 9.64
Crude-Brent 109.28 -0.93 1.78 -0.13 6.72
Growth over (%)

Current
(%) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
3 Months 0.04 0 1 -1 0
1 Year 0.10 0 -1 -2 -4
5 Year 1.54 -1 -21 3 49
10 Year 2.48 -6 -20 -18 32
30 Year 3.33 -7 -15 -26 3
Change over (Basis Points)


Global Policy Rates

US Libor Rates (3M & 6M)
Current
1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
US Fed rate 0.25 0 0 0 0
BOE 0.50 0 0 0 0
JAPAN 0.10 0 0 0 0
EU 0.25 0 0 -25 -25
Change over (Basis Points)

Current
1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
3 Months 0.227 -0.20 0.46 -0.83 -4.79
6 Months 0.322 -0.20 -0.11 -0.86 -9.24
Change Over (Basis Points)

Gold-Oil Ratio Currency Derivatives
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
15.5
16.5
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Gold Oil Ratio
(52 Week High: 14.25 52 Week Low: 12.16)

O.I. Value
(Lots) (Rs Crore) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
NSE 59332 7452 15 227 178 -
MCX-SX 133 99 55 654 -70 -
BSE 26030 1045 1149 3252 1798 -
Total IRF 85495 8595 30 270 181 -
Growth Over (%)
Interest Rate Futures

O.I. Value
(Lots) (Rs Crore) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
NSE 1165747 50914 21 70 59 -52
MCX-SX 485071 21300 9 46 20 -73
BSE 201753 25739 -8 42 50 -
USE 17744 991 18 484 -52 -43
C. Futures 1870315 98944 9 58 43 -47
NSE 359688 10542 -4 56 56 -81
MCX-SX 26515 372 -29 24 92 -98
BSE 827 479 210 2089 -81 -
USE 7659 550 -28 -25 -88 -84
C. Options 394689 11943 -4 52 -16 -86
O.I.: Open Interest; C. Futures: Currency Futures; C.Options: Currency Options
Currency Derivatives (Futures & Options)
Growth Over (%)



Foreign Currency Assets & FX Reserves

FII Investment (Rs Crore)
23-May-14
(Rs crore) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
Total FCA 1670050 -1.4 -3.1 0.8 14.4
Gold 126500 0.0 -2.4 -2.8 -1.9
SDRs 26040 -0.9 -4.9 -6.1 6.5
Res. with IMF 9810 -0.8 -12.7 -21.5 -22.0
FX Reserves* 312656 -0.7 0.9 6.2 8.6
Growth over (%)

* USD in million
Current
(Rs Cr.) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
Equity 30270 39750 10455 18944 17702
Debt 11574 11852 1272 13777 2506
Equity 30488 34950 9204 15869 14051
Debt 3839 6386 4153 3419 5793
Equity -218 4800 1251 3075 3651
Debt 7735 5466 -2881 10358 -3287
Before
Gross
Purchases
Net
Investment
Gross Sales


Free Fund Ratio* (banks)
Commodity Futures Volumes (Rs. crore)
As on
16-May-14 Fortnight 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Free Fund Ratio 94.89 94.91 95.18 94.79 94.14
Before

* Free fund ratio = (1-CRR-SLR)x Deposit/Credit
Current
(Rs. Crore) 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
NCDEX 20851.38 1.16 1.48 0.44 21.06
MCX 92852.47 -2.99 -5.53 -21.16 -62.92
Growth over (%)


13

CCIL Economic Research

Weekly Market Analytics

Week Ended: May 30, 2014



Economic Research Department
The Clearing Corporation of India Limited
Plot No FP 822, Off. S.K.Bole Road,
College Lane, Opp NEAT House,
Near Agar Bazaar, Dadar (W),
Mumbai 400 028
Phone: 6154 6581/6583
res_sur@ccilindia.co.in
gcnath@ccilindia.co.in


Note: 1. Charts contain straight lines in red and blue, indicate average and +/- 1 standard deviation respectively.
2. One crore = 10 million
3. Chart on INR exchange rate to major currencies presents indices with base as 1 April, 2004 = 100

Data sources: Websites of Reserve Bank of India, BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, CSO, Federal Reserve, US Treasury
Dept. apart from the CCIL.

Disclaimer:
This is not an investment advice in any manner. The data used in this report has been obtained from secondary sources which we consider
reliable but do not guarantee accuracy. We take care to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material. This
material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. We are not soliciting any action based
on this material. It is for the general information of market participants and general public. It does not constitute a personal
recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual market participants.
Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this material, one should consider whether it is suitable for their particular needs and, if
necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of
original capital may occur. The material is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or
complete, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only.
This research contains the views and opinions of CCIL Research team only and not necessarily the views of CCIL. This report may not be
reproduced in whole or in part.
Correlation Matrix (Change Over Last Week) Global Equity Indices
BSE NSE NASDAQ DJIA SSE NIKKEI NYSE FTSE
BSE 1.000
NSE 0.994 1.000
NASDAQ 0.182 0.176 1.000
DJIA 0.307 0.310 0.689 1.000
SSE 0.151 0.173 0.035 0.027 1.000
NIKKEI 0.271 0.260 0.408 0.460 0.042 1.000
NYSE 0.342 0.345 0.805 0.806 0.081 0.486 1.000
FTSE 0.342 0.334 0.624 0.641 0.064 0.483 0.789 1.000

Current
INDICES 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
BSE Sensex 24217 -1.9 8.1 14.7 23.3
S&P CNX NIFTY 7230 -1.9 8.0 15.2 21.4
NASDAQ Comp. 4243 1.4 2.9 -1.5 22.8
DJIA 16717 0.7 3.1 2.4 10.6
SSE Composite 2039 0.2 0.7 -0.8 -11.4
Nikkei 225 14632 1.2 1.2 -1.4 6.2
NYSE Comp. 10726 0.7 0.9 3.4 15.3
LSE FTSE 100 6845 0.4 0.3 0.5 4.0
Growth Over (%)

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