On Friendster Networks, Pyramid Schemes and The Spreading of Virus by Christopher Monterola

On Friendster networks, pyramid schemes and the spreading of virus
A review on diverse networks which surprisingly contain common attributes
Christopher Monterola,PhD
Complex Systems Group - IPL

National Institute of Physics
UP Diliman
1
Organization of Presentation
The Known Physics
Basic ideas on the science of Complexity
I. Different types of networks

II. Onset of Interest in small world networks
III. Multilevel marketing scheme
IV. Friendster Network
V. Olfactory network
2
The Known Physics
A. Why is the Sun the Center of our Solar System?
B. The Newtonian Era: F = m a
C. The Einstein Era: E = mc2
Monterola! !
A. Why is the Sun the center of our Solar System ?
1. Pythagoras (569 - 465 B.C.) → 2. Plato (427 - 327 B.C.) →
3. Eudoxus (409 – 356 B.C.) → 4. Aristotle (384 - 322 B.C.) →
5. Aristarchus* (310 - 230 B.C.) → 6. Hipparchus (190 - 120 B.C.) →
7. Claudius Ptolemy (A.D. 85 - 165 ) → GOOD FOR 1400 years!!!
Geocentric theory : “Earth- centered universe”

* Heliocentric theory:
! “Sun-centered
! universe”

Monterola! !
B. Newtonian Era
xCM = m1 x1 + m2 x2
Center of Mass m1 +m2
Motion in the CM is the motion of the entire bodies
Resolve: Sun as the center of the solar system

C. Albert Einstein (1879 – 1955)
´I have no special talents. I am

only passionately curious.´
Oh what oh what is the

speed of light?
C. Albert Einstein (1879 – 1955)
"Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour.
Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. THAT'S
relativity."
"Gravitation can not be held responsible for people falling in love"
"Only two things are infinite, the

universe and human stupidity, and I'm
not sure about the former."
http://www.some-guy.com/quotes/einstein.html#relativity
Brandenburg Gate Geometrical Objects
Asin Saturn
But what if ...
Objects are countless - Avogadro’s limit
Entities can learn and adapt - Self-Organization
Entities form networks - Social Systems
9
Definition: Complex Systems
Best defined by what they are not:
• Complex systems are not simple ones
• Fundamental characteristic: Emergent properties
Defn: Emergent properties

are ones that arise due to
the interactions in a
system, and are not inherent The total is more than the sum of its parts…
in the individual components
http://necsi.org/guide/concepts/
Complex Systems Science

modeling systems of interacting components
Operates at different temporal and

spatial scales
Similar emergent properties are

found in many domains, such as
branching structures
Tree roots and branches
Neurons
Blood vessels
Road systems
Drainage basins
Why similar properties emerge across

different domains?
12
Complex Systems Science
extremely multidisciplinary
Metabolic pathways
Extremely multidisciplinary
Plants
Animals – shell patterns, ontogeny
Behaviour – swarms
Evolution
Financial markets
Traffic
Social Networks
Insights gained in physics or chemistry may be applicable to economics or biology
13
The study of complex networks tackles the emergence, dynamics, and
evolution of the “skeletons” of complex systems.
I. Different types of networks

II. Small world networks
III. Multilevel marketing scheme
IV. Friendster Network
V. Olfactory network
I. Types of Networks
15
15
Concept of neighborhood...
percolation models, theories
on regular lattices
15
on regular lattices
15
on regular lattices
Take few steps to reach

any vertex...
Erdos and co-workers
spread of epidemics,
random walks, random
graphs, quantum chaos
15
on regular lattices

any vertex...
15
on regular lattices
Small world
“Six Degrees of
Separation”, Guare J., A
play, Vintage books 1990.

any vertex...
15
Milgram Experiment
Short chains of acquaintances

linking pairs who didn’t know each other;
Source: Nebraska, Target: Massachusetts
Forward message to people they knew
personally (who should be closer to target)
Average length: 5 and 6 steps
“Six degrees of separation” principle

“Small-World” phenomenon
16
Small-World Network
Watts and Strogatz
a massive email experiment to test the theory
of "six degrees of separation"
More than 60,000 people

166 different countries
18 targets.
17
Small-World Network
Watts and Strogatz
a massive email experiment to test the theory
of "six degrees of separation"
More than 60,000 people

166 different countries
18 targets.
Social Networks exhibit:

Short characteristic path length
High degree of clustering
17
Onset of Interest
its a small world ...
Social networks have:

small average path lengths
LARGE degree of clustering
Painting by Idahlia Stanley.
Collective Dynamics of `small world` networks, Watts, D. J. & Strogatz, D. H. (1998) Nature 393, 440–442 (1998).
18
II. Small World Networks
Social Networks
(i) human sexual contacts (4781Swedes 18-74 yrs old)

vertices: males or females
links: sexual relation
SMALL WORLD implications:
Targeted control
`rich getting richer` phenomena
Classes of small-world networks, Amaral, L. A. N., Scala, A., Barthélémy, M. & Stanley,
H. E. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 97, 11149–11152 (Oct 2000). 19
Technological and Economic Networks
(ii) the electric power grid of Southern California:

vertices : generators, transformers, and substations
links : high-voltage transmission lines
H. E. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 97, 11149–11152 (Oct 2000). 20
Iba pang Small World …
(iii) the network of world airports

vertices: airports
links: nonstop connections (cargo and
passengers).
21
(iv) the movie-actor network
vertices: actors
links: two actors were cast at least once in
the same movie
http://blog.clickz.com/img/socntwk.jpg
Small World pa rin …
(v) the acquaintance network of Mormons

vertices: 43 Utah Mormons
links: the number of other Mormons they know
(vi) the friendship network of 417 Madison Jr HS Students

vertices:students
links: chosen as the two (or three) best friend
23
Malaking Mundo ng Small World …
(vii) the neuronal network of the worm C. elegans

vertices: neurons
links:connections between neurons
(viii) the conformation space of a lattice polymer chain

vertices: polymer chain
links: connecting two conformations via local movements
http://cdg.columbia.edu/cdg/experiments
24
IX. Protein-protein
interaction network
(Saccharomyces
cerevisiae)
Online Experiments
http://cdg.columbia.edu/cdg/experiments
MusicLab
Researchers: Duncan Watts, Matt Salganik, Peter Dodds, Peter Hausel, Jason Booher-Jennings
This project attempts to understand how musical tastes are formed. Visit the site for a chance to discover and
download new music by up-and-coming bands. It's all legal and totally free.
This experiment started in 2004.

Check out the website at: http://www.musiclab.columbia.edu/
Small World Experiment 2

Researchers: Duncan Watts, Peter Dodds, Roby Muhamad, Peter Hausel, and Mahesh Somashekhar
The Small World project is an online experiment to test the idea that any two people in the world can be
connected via "six degrees of separation".
This experiment started in 2003.

Check out the website at: http://smallworld.columbia.edu/
Small World Experiment 1

Researchers: Duncan Watts, Peter Dodds, and Roby Muhamad
This experiment ended in 2003. The results are available at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/
301/5634/827?ijkey=Evqpw33f\
III. The Friendster Network
Recall: The Small-World Phenomenon
High Clustering Coefficient: It’s a network of friends
Short Path Length: everyone in the world can be reached

through a short chain of social acquaintances-
“six-degrees of separation”
27
The Small-World Experiment
Verified small-world hypothesis globally

Utilized the power and convenience of electronic
mail or email
Their Result
5 – 7 degrees of separation
6-degrees of separation is verified!
28
My Student`s Small World
29
My Student’s Friendster
30
31
http://www.washedashore.com/people/friendster/neato1.png
http://www.washedashore.com/people/friendster/DSC01474_v4.jpg
32
• Power Law
• Average Connection: 5 -7 links
33
Visualization of other small world networks
34
Pag isipan ...
Preferential attachment gives rise to a power law
Pareto rule or “80-20” rule, a power law disribution of property is universal

Less than 80 families control the economy of the Philippines
15 % of US population holds 91 % of total wealth
15 % of RP population holds 87 % of total wealth
H. E. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 97, 11149–11152 (Oct 2000).
35
Pag isipan ... 15% of population
5%
10 %
91% of incomes!
40 %
35 %
48%
43% 10 %
7%
1.5% 0.5%
www.gritty.org/Pages/GrittyBook/ pages/06WealthPoverty
Pag isipan ...
-0.4 Singapore
UK
-0.8 Bangladesh
USA
Japan U- actual [4]
-1.2
 predicted
France
-1.6
-2.0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
[4] www. econ.worldbank.org/programs/poverty/library/

[5] www.grb.net/wealth/
IV. Multi-level Marketing (MLM)
 Multilevel Marketing (MLM)

 Less EXPENSIVE Advertising
 Word-of-Mouth Marketing
 Credible [1]
 Cheaper [2]
 Consumers-Distributors-Recruiters
 incentive-driven
 a Billion $ industry
 controversial (Pyramid Schemes)
38
Significance
 Existence of MLM in the Philippines

 Quantify MLM
 Econophysics problem:
Why different MLM network structures co-exist?
To appear in Physica A 2008
39
Marketing Plan Structures
l=0
l=1
l=2
l=3
l=4
Unilevel Structure Binary Structure

unlimited downlines only 2 direct downlines only
Recruited agents are attached Recruited agents may or may not be
directly below their recruiters attached directly below their
recruiters
40
Network Growth
 Cross-Section of the Network, f(l), the number of agents

at level l
f (0) = 1
f (1) = 3
f (2) = 6
f (3) = 3
f (4) = 3
41
Unilevel Network Growth
The probability that an agent is added to level l is
42
Branching Rate
42
Branching Rate
Initially, f(0)=1 and f(l>0)=0. Thus, the normalized solution becomes
42
Agent-Based Model: Unilevel
 Construct underlying social network (WS model)

 Allow agent recruitment
 Unilevel: WS model, recruit friends
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open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer,
and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the
image and then insert it again.
43
Results
Unilevel Growth
Distribution
Number of Agents
Level
44
Binary Network Growth
Agents are limited to two direct downlines.
Recruitment is by preferential attachment.
The number of possible downlines that can be placed at level l
The probability that a node is added at level l is therefore
45
Hence
,
46
Hence
,
Effective fraction of recruiting
members that situates a recruit
at l.
46
Hence
,
at l.
46
Hence
,
at l.
Initially, f(0)=1 and f(l>0)=0. Thus, the normalized solution becomes
46
Agent-Based Model: Binary
 adopt BA preferential attachment model

 individuals connect to more established
N
!
Π(km ) = (km + 1)/ (kn + 1)
n=1
Imposed symmetry The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory
to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your
pairing bonus
computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have
to delete the image and then insert it again.
47
Results
Binary Growth Distribution of

Legacy Philippines
Number of Agents
Level
48
Results
Binary Growth Distribution of Unilevel Growth Distribution

Legacy Philippines
Number of Agents
Level
49
Results
Binary Growth Distribution of Unilevel Growth Distribution

Legacy Philippines
Number of Agents
Contrary to claims of unbridled growth.
Level
49
Robustness
ROBUSTNESS - the capacity to retain its overall structure

after a number of agents quit at a certain time.
Longer stay  less likely to quit

Agents at higher levels  more likely to quit
50
Robustness


50
Robustness


50
Robustness


50
Results
Binary
f(l)
l Unilevel
51
Linfoot’s Criterion
MLM Network F C Q
Fidelity Structural Correlation
Content Quality
Unilevel (N=2122) 0.8788 0.5702 0.7240
Unilevel (N=5000) 0.7804 0.6756 0.7280
Binary (N=2122) 0.9590 0.8523 0.9057
Binary (N=5000) 0.9865 0.9531 0.9698
Perfect Similarity F = C =Q = 1
52
Linfoot’s Criterion
MLM Network F C Q
Fidelity Structural Correlation
Content Quality
Unilevel (N=2122) 0.8788 0.5702 0.7240
Binary
Unilevel (N=5000) structure
0.7804 -> More Robust
0.6756 0.7280
Binary (N=2122) 0.9590 0.8523 0.9057
Binary (N=5000) 0.9865 0.9531 0.9698
Perfect Similarity F = C =Q = 1
52
Robustness
Unilevel Binary
53
Robustness
Unilevel Binary
53
Robustness
Unilevel Binary
53
Robustness
Unilevel Binary
53
Robustness
Unilevel Binary
“Healing Process”
53
Summary
Network Growth Robustness

Binary
Binary
Unilevel
Unilevel
Contrary to claims of unbridled growth.

Binary structure -> More Robust
54
V. Olfactory Network
The Physics of Smelling
Walkthrough
1. Psychophysical studies
2. Signal detection & representation
3. Olfactory network
4. Active research area
V. The Physics of Smelling
The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2004
"for their discoveries of odorant receptors and the organization of the

olfactory system"
Richard Axel Linda B. Buck

1/2 of the prize 1/2 of the prize
USA USA
Columbia University Fred Hutchinson Cancer

New York, NY, USA; Howard Hughes Research Center
Medical Institute Seattle, WA, USA
b. 1946 b. 1947
1. Psychophysical studies related to smell
Everyone has a unique smell (Wudson, JPR 1989)
We can smell happiness (Ackerl et al, PNAS 2002)
www.happypeople.com
Sperm may smell their way to the egg (Spehr et al., Science 2003)
www.linealba.01.com
We can smell gender (Rendler et al, Nature 2005)
Males sweat relaxes women (Preti et al, Bio. of Reproduction 2003)

57
1. Psychophysical studies related to smell
Taste is mostly (~75%) smell (Moncrief, Neuron 1967)
Odour memory falls off less rapidly (Miles & Jenkins, 2000)
Sniff test suggests when, and with whom, women are

most likely to cheat (Havlicek J., J. Biol. Lett. 2005)
Schizophrenia is associated with a decreased capacity to experience

pleasure within the olfactory domain (Crespo-Facorro et al., JAMA 2001).
anosmic – people who cannot smell
58
Hearing, Seeing, Tasting, Smelling the world ….
Auditory signal (frequency) Visual signal (wavelength)
Hair bundles 3 receptors
www.eyesokimage/rodscones.htm
www.frost.hair.com
Olfactory signal (odor molecules)

Gustation signal (taste molecules)
~1000 receptors 59
Figure from Mori & Sasaki, NCNS 1998
Rose emits a specific combination of tens of different odour molecules
Molecular mass is between 26 - 300
Odor is invariant over three orders of magnitude
Odor fatigue
“The mammalian nose is the best chemical detector in the world, yet we still don’t understand how it codes”
–Firestein Columbian University
60
Leynze & Macdonald, Nature 2004

61
Current hypothesis
one sensory neuron–one receptor
one glomerulus – one receptor
(Buck & Axel, 1991)
Figure from Mori & Sasaki, NCNS 1998

62
Four zones/compartments
Figure from Friedrich et al, Science 2002
Open problems: 1. Why converge to glomerulus?

! ! 2. Why four compartments?!
! ! 3. Role of feedback (sniffing)?
! ! 63
Response time
Olfactory: 2 - 3 hz (~300 - 500 ms)
Visual: 12 hz (~100ms)
Taste: 100 hz (10 ms)
Auditory: 1000 hz (1 ms)
64
4. Models
Active area of research
Experiments looking for theories
Olfactory neurons synchronizes at 20-30 hz during categorization
Odor is invariant over three orders of magnitude
Odor fatigue
Theory for odor representation, combination?
"What's in a name? that which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet"
........................................Romeo and Juliet act 2, sc.2, l.66............................
65

On Friendster Networks, Pyramid Schemes and The Spreading of Virus by Christopher Monterola

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On Friendster networks, pyramid schemes and the spreading of virus

A review on diverse networks which surprisingly contain common attributes

Complex Systems Group - IPL

I. Different types of networks

IV. Friendster Network

A. Why is the Sun the Center of our Solar System?

B. The Newtonian Era: F = m a

C. The Einstein Era: E = mc2

1. Pythagoras (569 - 465 B.C.) → 2. Plato (427 - 327 B.C.) →

3. Eudoxus (409 – 356 B.C.) → 4. Aristotle (384 - 322 B.C.) →

5. Aristarchus* (310 - 230 B.C.) → 6. Hipparchus (190 - 120 B.C.) →

7. Claudius Ptolemy (A.D. 85 - 165 ) → GOOD FOR 1400 years!!!

Geocentric theory : “Earth- centered universe”

Motion in the CM is the motion of the entire bodies

Resolve: Sun as the center of the solar system

´I have no special talents. I am

Oh what oh what is the

"Gravitation can not be held responsible for people falling in love"

"Only two things are infinite, the

Objects are countless - Avogadro’s limit

Entities can learn and adapt - Self-Organization

Entities form networks - Social Systems

Defn: Emergent properties

Complex Systems Science

Operates at different temporal and

Similar emergent properties are

Why similar properties emerge across

Insights gained in physics or chemistry may be applicable to economics or biology

I. Different types of networks

IV. Friendster Network

Take few steps to reach

Take few steps to reach

Take few steps to reach

Short chains of acquaintances

Average length: 5 and 6 steps

“Six degrees of separation” principle

More than 60,000 people

More than 60,000 people

Social Networks exhibit:

Social networks have:

(i) human sexual contacts (4781Swedes 18-74 yrs old)

SMALL WORLD implications:

Technological and Economic Networks

(ii) the electric power grid of Southern California:

Iba pang Small World …

(iii) the network of world airports

Small World pa rin …

(v) the acquaintance network of Mormons

(vi) the friendship network of 417 Madison Jr HS Students

Malaking Mundo ng Small World …

(vii) the neuronal network of the worm C. elegans

(viii) the conformation space of a lattice polymer chain

This experiment started in 2004.

Small World Experiment 2

This experiment started in 2003.

Small World Experiment 1

Recall: The Small-World Phenomenon

High Clustering Coefficient: It’s a network of friends

Short Path Length: everyone in the world can be reached

The Small-World Experiment

Verified small-world hypothesis globally

My Student`s Small World