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Expected Shifts in Regional Aluminum Market Balances and The Premium Outlook

!"!#!$ !&&'() *+&,-.-&/-
november 14, 2011
!orge vzquez
Managlng ulrecLor- Alumlnum lnLelllgence unlL
[orgevs[askharbor.com (312) 342-3130
Conclusions>

The global primary aluminum market is already in deficit in both China and ROW.

At the margin, the game changers are China (increasingly importing primary metal and scrap),
The Americas (no greenfield expansions expected until 2016 while Brazil booms), and India (output
less than expected and widening internal needs).

Global competition for material will intensify in the next few years, with the GCC practically the
only region generating additional excess metal at the margin at least until 2015. Surplus in East
Europe, Africa and Oceania will remain unchanged in the next four years.

In consequence, our models suggest we should see rising premiums across the board with
special emphasis in The Americas, as they have the worst geographical position to attract metal.
China and India should also see notably higher premiums given the expected size of its needs,
although it has a much better position to access the metal from regions with potential surplus.



*
*
*
*
DONT TAKE YOUR EYES OFF THE BALL
*
lLA8/vlx lnuLx ln LACP Cl 1PL kL? 8LClCnS Cl 1PL WC8Lu
(maxlmum level reached Lhe monLh)
Veredict (backed by money) is European weakness will continuebut RoW will be fine
Source: HARBOR intelligence with CBOT data
What is data telling us it is unavoidable
Structural factors driving the aluminum industry>

European economic stagnation is here to stay the power of negative demographics!

Asian demographics, urbanization & industrialization resilient & unprecedented demand

North Americas demographic comeback and pent of demandthe bright spot in the WW

Aluminum demand boom in the transportation the spring of a structural change

Serious obstacles for aluminum supply growth Sustainability, poor economics & nationalism

*
*
*
*
*
REGIONAL MARKET BALANCES OUTLOOK
*
LxLC1Lu 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL 8? 8LClCn ln 2012
(mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
8LS1 Cl ASlA
LAS1 Lu8CL
Al8lCA
CCLAnlA
1.87 1.88
REGIONAL
DEFICIT
REGIONAL
SURPLUS
CPlnA
nC81P AML8lCA
-3.14 -3.18
WLS1 Lu8CL
LA1ln AML8lCA
0.49 0.43
MluuLL LAS1
2.88 3.11
We expect visible primary market deficits of around 1.0 million tons in 11 and 12
-0.90 -0.98
-S.37 -S.89
-0.64
-0.83
1.30 1.33
2.40
2.2S
2011 2012
*
*
*
LxLC1Lu 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL 8? 8LClCn ln 2013
(mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
-S.37 -S.96
8LS1 Cl ASlA
-0.90 -3.21
CPlnA
-0.64 -1.S4

nC81P AML8lCA
-3.14 -2.97
WLS1 Lu8CL
LAS1 Lu8CL
2.40 2.12
MluuLL LAS1
2.88 S.S8
LA1ln AML8lCA
0.49 -0.14
Al8lCA
1.30 1.29
CCLAnlA
1.89
REGIONAL
DEFICIT
REGIONAL
SURPLUS
2011 201S
*
*
*
*
Competition for metal among regions will increaseThe Americas and Asia most hit
CuMuLA1lvL 8LClCnAL uLllCl1/Su8LuS LxLC1Lu 1C 8L CLnL8A1Lu
A1 1PL MA8Cln ln 12-13 (mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
Excess metal to come from Middle East not enough to cover rising needs of imported
material in China and the Americas
!"#$%
!&#'$
!%#'(
!%#")
!%#%&
%#%"
%#&*
"#*%
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Chlna Amerlcas 8esL of
Asla
LasL
Lurope
Afrlca Cceanla WesL
Lurope
Mlddle
LasL
CHALLENGING SUPPLY SIDE VS CONSTRUCTIVE
DEMAND PROSPECTS
*
Output capacity expansions around the globe facing increasing challenges
CLC8AL 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM LxAnSlCn CPALLLnCLS MA
Source: HARBOR intelligence
INDIA
- Coal supply constraints
- Domestic alumina
supply constraints
- Unfavorable government
policies for the industry
CCLANIA
- There is no cheap energy at the
margin for new projects
- Unfavorable government policies for
the industry
SCU1n AMLkICA
- No cheap energy for new
projects
- Political issues in Venezuela
- Only one greenfield
expansion hitting the market
but until 2016
CnINA
- Rising output costs
- Unfavorable
government policies
for the industry
C1nLk ASIA
- Indonesia/Malaysia
likely to increasingly add
to the output equation
NCk1n AMLkICA
- Not cost-competitive vs
regions as Middle East and
Indonesia/Malaysia.
- No greenfield/brownfield
expansions until 2013
kUSSIA
- Long story of under- deliverance
- Higher electricity prices ahead
due to market liberalization
MIDDLL LAS1
- Least challenging region
- Cheap energy available
- It is reasonable to think it
will deliver
WLS1 LUkCL
- No cheap energy at the
margin for new projects
- Unfavorable government
policies for the industry
AIkICA
- Power infrastructure
not fully developed
- Political instability
Global working age income rate of growth will accelerate from 2012 on
* Global growth of population between 20 and 49 years old multiplied by GDP per capita at constant 2000 USD
Source: HARBOR intelligence with World Bank and United Nations data
CLC8AL WC8klnC ACL CuLA1lCn lnCCML


C8CW1P* vS ALuMlnuM uLMAnu
(Lrllllon dollars vs mllllon Lons)
GLC8AL
kIMAk
ALUMINUM
DLMAND
(kIGn1 SCALL)
GLC8AL
WCkkING AGL
CULA1ICN
INCCML
(LLI1 SCALL)
!
"
#!
#"
$!
$"
%!
%"
&!
&"
"!
""
$
'
#!
#&
#(
$$
)'! )*! )(! )+! )!! )#!
CLC8AL WC8klnC CuLA1lCn lnCCML C8CW1P*
(88lCS= 8razll, 8ussla, lndla and Chlna, bllllon dollars vs )
8kICS
(LLI1
SCALL)
kCW
(LLI1
SCALL)
GLC8AL CnANGL (kIGn1 SCALL)
!
"
#
$
%&
%'
%(
&%
!
'!!
%!!!
%'!!
&!!!
&'!!
"!!!
"'!!
)!!!
*$%+*$' *$#+*!! *!%+*!' *!#+*%! *%%+*%'
16
20
1S
13
19
1,407
20S
296
S09
916
1,168
2,038 1,678
1,217
2,433
condenual *
!"#
#
"#
$#
%#
&#
'#
!"# # "# $# %# &# '# (#
8lMA8? ALuMlnuM uLMAnu L8 CAl1A*
(kg per caplLa vs Cu per caplLa, -ad[usLed)
Mature - Serv|ce]1ech
Source: HARBOR Intelligence and IMF
*Bubble dimension indicates population size
Urban|z|ng &
Industr|a||z|ng
-10
0
10
20
30
40
30
-10 0 10 20 30 40 30 60
8kA2IL
10.3 kg
+63
IAAN
18.2 kg
+6
SCU1n kCkLA
46.7 kg
+37
US
18.2 kg
17
INDIA
3.2 kg
+93
CnINA
23.8 kg
+63
kUSSIA
11.8 kg
+41
GLkMAN
29.9 kg
+1
2011
2013
kura|
MIDDLL LAS1
7.6 kg
+69
Demand: Urbanization+Working Income Growth+ Material of Choice = Robust demand growth
!"
#
"
$#
$"
%#
&'()* +,-./ 012 &345
78('93
:844-/ ;/9/. <.*-/ =(/>-)
!
"
#
$
%
&!
'$!(')* ')$('!& '!"('&! '&&(+&*
As a result, the expected underlying global aluminum demand growth rate is among
the highest the industry has seen
8lMA8? ALuMlnuM uLMAnu C8CW1P
(CA8C)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
7.9
3.0
6.6
9.7
8lMA8? ALuMlnuM uLMAnu C8CW1P
Cu1LCCk 8? MAln 8LClCn Anu CCun18lLS
(annual average raLe)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
6.4
9.7
18.9
14.4
-2.3
S.2
2.1
1.1
3.4
9.9
-0.S
1.4
12.9
18.8
10.0
13.9
04-10
11-1S
*
*
*
*
*
The regional concentration of the expected primary demand growth is evident
Source: HARBOR intelligence
1
83
S
4
S
1
CnINA, INDIA, MLNA
AND C1nLk ASIA
*
IAAN
*
USA
*
8kA2IL
*
LAS1 LUkCL
*
WLS1 LUkCL
*
8lMA8? ALuMlnuM LxLC1Lu uLMAnu C8CW1P 2011-2013
CCMCSl1lCn 8? 8LClCn Anu kL? CCun18lLS
( paruclpauon ln global growLh)
8lMA8? ALuMlnuM CAACl1? LxAnSlCnS ln '11-'17
8AnkLu 8? LlkLLlPCCu
(mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
Our models suggest growing tightness is a structural shift rather than a short term issue
CCMMI1LD
UNDLk S1UD
(nIGn CDDS)
UNDLk S1UD
(LCW CDDS)
kLMC1L CDDS
DLMAND GkCW1n
!"!
#"$
#"!
#"$
!"%
!"!
&'"#
!"
#
"
$
%
&
'
(
$#"" $#"$ $#"% $#"& $#"' $#"( $#")
4.4
GROWING TIGHTNESS IS ALREADY HERE
*
CPlnA 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(annuallzed mllllon Lons, monLhly daLa)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
Indeed, market tightness is already evident in China and the Rest of the World
Source: HARBOR intelligence
8CW 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(annuallzed mllllon Lons, monLhly daLa)
0.9
-1.2
4-MCn1P
MCvlnC AvC
4-MCn1P
MCvlnC AvC
!"
!#
$
#
"
%
&'( *+$ ,'- .+$ /01 *+$ &'( .++ ,'- .++ /01 *++
-0.9
!"
!#
!$
!%
!&
'
&
%
()* ,&' -). /&' 012 ,&' ()* /&& -). /&& 012 ,&&
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-6.3
-2.3
1.3
3.3
9.3
!an '09 !ul '09 !an '10 !ul '10 !an '11 !ul '11
Aluminum inventory coverage is actually down in key regionsand sharply in China
CLC8AL 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(annuallzed mllllon Lons, monLhly daLa)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
-0.1
-1.8
ALuMlnuM lnvLn1C8lLS* / uLMAnu 8A1lC
(weeks of consumpuon, monLhly daLa)
4-MCn1P
MCvlnC AvC
-2.1
Source: HARBOR Intelligence
*Commercial inventories only
!"#$
%#"
%#!
!$#$
&#'
!#&
!
"
#
$
%
&!
&"
&#
&$
&%
'()*+
-./)012
34)(5/ 6+072
SEP 2010
SEP 2011
Even assuming all visible inventories were available for consumers, inventory
demand coverage is trending down and below the historical average
8LAL LML 3M ALuMlnuM 8lCLS vs
CLC8AL vlSl8LL lnvLn1C8? uLMAnu CCvL8ACL
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
3
5
7
9
11
13
80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 Dec 09 Apr '11
weeks of
consumption
$/ton
Real prices in Sep 11
ALUMINUM
kICLS
(8lCP1 SCALL)
11.2 (Feb 09)
6.7 (Sep 11)
Source: HARBOR Intelligence
INVENTORY
COVERAGE
7.4 nIS1CkICAL
AVLkAGL
REGIONAL PREMIUMS OUTLOOK:
WHO WILL SUFFER THE MOST TO ATTRACT METAL?
*
CnINA
MIDDLL LAS1
INDIA
C1nLk ASIA
kLS1 CI WCkLD
!
"!!
#$!!!
#$"!!
%$!!!
%$"!!
&$!!!
&$"!!
%!## %!#% %!#& %!#' %!#"
8lMA8? ALuMlnuM Cu1u1 C8CW1P ln '11-'13 (lncludes resLarLs and creep)
(Lhousand Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
Even assuming expansions take place on time, restarts and capacity creep occur and
China brings considerable more output than what we can verify.
1C1AL]LAk +3,494 +4,966 +4,316 +3,062 +4,039
* * *
*
lnCLuuLS 8LS1A81S, CAACl1? C8LL Anu Su88lSL CAACl1?
ALLCWAnCL ln CPlnA Cl 1C1AL 7.6 MlLLlCn 1CnS
*
tightness should intensify ahead
CLC8AL 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM LxLC1Lu uLMAnu vS Cu1u1
(mllllon Lons, annual daLa)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
Under current scenar|o,
the annua| output
shorua|| cou|d reach
2.9 m||||on tons
by 201S
*
DLMAND
CU1U1
!"
#$
#"
%$
%"
"$
""
&$
&"
'$
($% ($" ($& ($' ($) ($* (+$ (++, (+!, (+#, (+%, (+",
Source: HARBOR intelligence
200 11S
280
118
CnINA
*
IAAN
*
8kA2IL
*
WLS1 LUkCL
*
ALuMlnuM lnCC1 Anu 8lLLL1 8LMluMS 8? 8LClCn 1CuA?
(currenL gures, $ per mLon)
INDIA
*
102
181
USA]MIDWLS1
*
In consequence, spot premiums are now near record highs across the board
397
4S0-
SS0
420-
4S0
30S
27S
8ILLL1
kLMIUMS
GCC
*
6S-7S
210-2S
0
INGC1
kLMIUMS
Source: HARBOR intelligence
CnINA
*
IAAN
*
8kA2IL
*
WLS1 LUkCL
*
ALuMlnuM lnCC1 8LMluMS lC8LCAS1 8? 8LClCn 2012
($ per mLon)
USA]MIDWLS1
*
and will be even higher ahead especially in the Americas
INDIA
*
GCC
*
C1Ln1lAL MA!C8 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM 18AuL lLCWS 8? 2013
Source: HARBOR intelligence
as they have the worst geographical position to compete for material
8kA2IL
USA
IAAN
CCLANIA
AIkICA
GCC
*

*

*

kLS1 CI
ASIA
WLS1 LUkCL
LAS1 LUkCL
*

CnINA
REGIONAL FOCUS:
STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN CHINAS SUPPLY SIDE
*
Chinas aluminum output long term underlying trend has weakened since 2007
!
"
#
$%
$&
%!
'()*!+ '()*!, '()*!- '()*!. '()*$$
CPlnA 8lMA8? Cu1u1
(annuallzed k Lons)
1S0 tpy per
month growth
*
120 tpy per
month growth
*
108 tpy per
month growth
*
Source: HARBOR intelligence with CNIA data
CPlnA ALuMlnuM Cu1u1 CASP CCS1*
vS SPlL ALuMlnuM 8lCLS
($ per mLon, monLhly daLa)
Source: HARBOR intelligence and LME
*Output average cash cost (excludes depreciation, working capital cost, and return
on investment)= 50% of capacity produces at that cost or below, the other 50%
above that cost
CHINA OUTPUT
CASH COST
SHFE PRICES
We believe a structural change in the supply side has indeed occurred
d) Environment/Pollution Focus
f) Industry Profitability Focus
c) Energy Efficiency Focus
e) Internal Demand Focus
b) Increasing Cost Disadvantage
Coal, Alumina, Yuan, Wages
Why a structural change
in aluminum output ?
a) Poor Economics
October, 2011
!"##
!$"#
%%##
%""#
%&##
'()*#+ '()*#$ '()*#& '()*!# '()*!!
!"
#
"
$#
$"
%#
%"
&#
'()!#* '+,!#* '()!$# '+,!$# '()!$$ '+,!$$
!"!
!"#
!"$
!"%
!"&
'"!
()*+!, (-.+!, ()*+'! (-.+'! ()*+'' (-.+''
This change became evident in 2010 with emergence of an internal supply deficit that
initially was met by heavy destocking by semi producers and now by commercial stocks
ALuMlnuM lnvLn1C8lLS ln CPlnA
(mllllon Lons, weekly daLa, excludes cancelled warranLs)
Source: HARBOR intelligence with SHFE and SMM data
kIMAk CU1U1 +
SCkA kLCCVLk
SLMIS
CU1U1
IN1LkNAL
SUL
DLIICI1
NL1 IMCk1S
(scrap, pr|mary & a||oy)
CPlnLSL ALuMlnuM CCnSuM1lCn vS SuL?
(annuallzed mllllon Lons)
-82
Source: HARBOR intelligence with CNBS and CNIA data
CnINA C1nLkS
SnIL
CPlnA uCMLS1lC 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
China will continue to add the most to the output equation in 11-15, but it wont be
enough to keep up with domestic demand (even after assuming a slowdown)
CnINA kIMAk ALUMINUM MAkkL1
DLIICI1 LkLC1LD IkCM '11 CN
*
ASSUMING CnINA WILL DLLIVLk Lk1kA 7.6 MILLICN
1CNS IN 2011-201S 1nA1 AkL NC1 CUkkLN1L
ANNCUNCLD]CCMMI1LD Ck LANNLD
!"#
!"$
%!"&
%!"'
%!"&
%'"!
%'"(
%'"(
%#")
!"#$
!%#$
!&#$
!'#$
$#$
'#$
($) ($* ($+ ('$ ('', ('&, ('%, ('", ('-,
!
"
#
$
%
&!
& " ' # ( $ ) %
xln!lAnC 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM Cu1u1 lC8LCAS1
(mllllon Lons)

HARBOR estimates Xinjiang will struggle to deliver as expected before 2015
1AkING IN1C ACCCUN1 ICkLCAS1S CI
CCAL kCDUC1ICN IN !"#$"%#&'
CU18CUND SnIMLN1S 1C C1nLk
kCVINCLS AND kAIL WA CAACI1, WL
LS1IMA1L 1nA1 kIMAk ALUMINUM
kCDUC1ICN IN 1nL kLGICN CCULD kLACn
6.0 MILLICN 1 8 201S


1nIS LS1IMA1L IS IAk 8LLCW 1nL 10 M1
LkLC1LD 8 SCML MAkkL1 Ak1ICIAN1S


1nL LCNG 1LkM 1AkGL1 CI 10 MILLICN
1 CCULD 8L nI1 8 2020.
Source: HARBOR Intelligence
2011f 2015f 2015f
Planned
*
*
*
2020f
0.25
6.0
10.0
kCDUC1ICN IN
kINIIANG LkLC1LD
1C SUkGL

NLVLk1nLLLSS, WL
LS1IMA1L I1 WILL
UNDLk-DLLIVLk
*
*
10 MILLICN 1
1AkGL1 1C 8L
kLACnLD IN 2020
*
REGIONAL FOCUS:
A WIDENING DEFICIT IN THE AMERICAS
*
How does the region works? Surplus in Latam + Canada, deficit in the US
uS vS 8LS1 Cl 1PL 8LClCn* 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(*Canada+ Laun Amerlca, mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
US MAkkL1 DLIICI1
CANADA + LA1IN
AMLkICA MAkkL1
SUkLUS
!"#
!"!
!"$
!"%
!"&
!"'
(")
("*
("&
("$
("!
("+
,!") ,!")
,$"+
,!"+
,("$
,("(
,(")
,(")
,!"+
,!"$
,!"&
,!"*
!"
!#
!$
!%
!&
'
&
%
$
#
('# ('" (') ('* ('+ (', (&' (&&- (&%- (&$- (&#- (&"-
A shrinking surplus of metal in Latin America is the instrumental change
Source: HARBOR intelligence
CAnAuA ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(Lhousand Lons)
LA1ln AML8lCA ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(Lhousand Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
Stagnant Canad|an output doesn't he|p
*
*
0
300
1,000
1,300
2,000
2,300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2013f
!"##$
!"#$%
!"!&'
'(#
&)(
&(%
#*(
'&
+!&)
!"##
"##
$##
%##
&##
'##
"("##
"($##
)##& )##* )##' )#"# )#""+ )#")+ )#"$+ )#",+ )#"%+
mainly driven by Brazil shifting from a net exporter to a net importer position
Source: HARBOR intelligence
88AZlLlAn ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(Lhousand Lons)
!"#
$"%
$$&
##&
%'&
%&%
("'
()'*
(*$%
!"##
!$##
!%##
!&##
#
&##
%##
$##
"##
'(###
&##) &##" &##* &#'# &#''+ &#'&+ &#',+ &#'%+ &#'-+
Our industry intel suggests the region is entering a period of structural deficits
AML8lCAS 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM MA8kL1 8ALAnCL
(norLh Amerlca + Laun Amerlca, Lhousand Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
!"#
"$##%
"$&#!
&"
'"("
'!)&
'"$)"%
'"$&%*
'"$+,"
!"#$$$
!%#&$$
!%#$$$
!&$$
$
&$$
%#$$$
%#&$$
"$$' "$$( "$$) "$%$ "$%%* "$%"* "$%+* "$%,* "$%&*
REGIONAL FOCUS:
INDIA WONT BE ENOUGH EVEN FOR ITS DOMESTIC NEEDS
*
lnulA 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM Cu1u1
(mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
India will allegadelly be at the margin the third largest source of new output capacity
in 11-15 (after China and ME)but will highely likely deliver less than promised
CA8C ln '11-'13
16.9
*


8egulaLory consLralnLs Lo
explolL bauxlLe reserves

*
*
MAIN CnALLLNGLS
SLrucLural coal declL
!"#
!"#
$"$
$"%
$"&
$"'
$"(
$")
%"%
%")
&"$
&"*
!
"
#
$
%
&!% &!' &!( &!) &!* &!+ &"! &"", &"#, &"$, &"%, &"',
!"
"#
$!!
$%&'
$'()
$%'#
$%)"
$'#)
$)*#
!"##
!$##
!%##
!&##
#
&##
'#( '#" '#) '*# '**+ '*&+ '*,+ '*%+ '*-+
lnulA 8lMA8? ALuMlnuM 8ALAnCL
(mllllon Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
However, even if it delivers as expected, it wont be enough to cover internal needs


Assumes a prlmary
alumlnum demand
CAC8 of 18.8 for Lhe
'11-'13 perlod

*
REGIONAL FOCUS:
MALAYSIA & INDONESIA TO PARTIALLY ALLEVIATE UNTIL 2015
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MALA?SlA & lnuCnLSlA
8lMA8? ALuMlnuM Cu1u1 (Lhousand Lons)
Source: HARBOR intelligence
Malaysia & Indonesia probably the next hot spotswould help to alleviate from 15 on
!
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#!!
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'&! '&&( '&"( '&)( '&#( '&*(
S0
2S6
2S6 2S7
2S8
2S9
661
10S
120
204
240
442
MALASIA
INDCNLSIA
306
361
377
463
S01
1,103
Lnters ()*+,-*-
and /0122 31,45
(404647 /8421 ""
|n Ma|ays|a
120,000 tpy

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Lnters 9845:- and
&""& ;-5<+=>2
(4*454?) (404647
|n Ma|ays|a
370,000 tpy

*
Lnters #%@9A
Last ka||matan |n
Indones|a
S00,000 tpy

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Conclusions>

The global primary aluminum market is already in deficit in both China and ROW.

At the margin, the game changers are China (increasingly importing primary metal and scrap),
The Americas (no greenfield expansions expected until 2016 while Brazil booms), and India (output
less than expected and widening internal needs).

Global competition for material will intensify in the next few years, with the GCC practically the
only region generating additional excess metal at the margin at least until 2015. Surplus in East
Europe, Africa and Oceania will remain the same in the next four years.

In consequence, our models suggest we should see rising premiums across the board with
special emphasis in The Americas, as they have the worst geographical position to attract metal.
China and India should also see notably higher premiums given the expected size of its needs,
although it has a much better position to access the metal from regions with potential surplus.



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