WWEABulletin 2014

Wi n d E n e r g y A r o u n d t h e Wo r l d
ISSUE
1
March 2014
Quarterly Bulletin
P16
2014 Small Wind World Report
P22
Statistics of Wind Power
Development in China 2013
P36
Study on Onshore Wind Energy Potential
in Germany
1
From The Editor
Dear Members and Friends of WWEA,
This edition of the WWEA Quarterly Bulletin is published three years after the Fukushima nuclear accident
started, and on this occasion we are documenting here several key documents of the renewable energy
movement which has been emerging in response to the disaster. Local communities in particular are now
playing a more and more active role in the promotion of wind power in Japan.
Two amazing studies discussed in this edition of the Bulletin help illustrate the great potential of wind
power and of renewables in general.
In the frst, the Israel Energy Forum has presented a scenario showing how Israel can reach a very high
share of renewable power by the year 2040, and that such a high penetration is economically feasible. The
conclusion of the study, without doubt, is also relevant for many other countries with similar limitations in
terms of land availability, etc.
In another very sophisticated study, the German Federal Environment Agency UBA has sought to
calculate the full onshore wind potential of the country, taking into account all limiting factors such as land
use limitations, available wind resources, economic viability etc. The astonishing result: densely populated
Germany has a realistic onshore wind potential of 1200000 MW with an annual power output of around 2900
TWh! This conclusion will hopefully inspire a re-assessment of the low wind potential estimations in many
other countries.
The small wind sector is still booming, showing growth rates above the large wind sector. However,
the small wind industry is mainly focused on few major markets: China, the USA and UK, and Italy are the
leading small wind markets, as is highlighted in the Small Wind World Report summary and supported by
another briefng on the Italian small wind market. Meanwhile, in China the large wind sector is also thriving, as
revealed in another brief report within this edition.
Finally, we have a short article reflecting on the encouraging prospects for innovative applications of
wind power in Morocco: the country has some of the windiest sites of the world, and has fnally started to
harvest these resources in a fascinating broad-based project. It is encouraging to see such strategic uses of
wind power, which herald an impressive transformation of the economic structure in the region.
As ever, my hope is that this Bulletin will be of interest and use to you, its readers! We are also very happy
to receive your feedback on the Bulletin, so please accept our invitation to write us to share your thoughts
and suggestions.
With best wishes,
Stefan Gsnger
Secretary General, WWEA
2
Editorial Committee
Editor-in-Chief: Stefan Gsnger
Associate Editor-in-Chief: Shi Pengfei
Paul Gipe
Jami Hossain
Editors: Martina Bachvarova Shane Mulligan
Yu Guiyong
Visual Design: Liu Zhan
Contact
Martina Bachvarova
mb@wwindea.org
Tel. +49-228-369 40-80
Fax +49-228-369 40-84
WWEA Head Office
Charles-de-Gaulle-Str. 5, 53113 Bonn, Germany
A detailed supplier listing and
other information can be found at
www.wwindea.org
Yu Guiyong
yugy@cwea.org.cn
Tel. +86-10-5979 6665
Fax +86-10-6422 8215
CWEA Secretariat
28 N. 3rd Ring Road E., Beijing, P. R. China
A detailed supplier listing and
other information can be found at
www.cwea.org.cn
Published by
World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)
Produced by
Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA)
ISSUE 1 March 2014
01 From the Editor
News Analysis
04 Three years after Fukushima: 100% renewable
energy is only a matter of political will
05 Japanese regions transition to 100% renewable
energy
06 Fukushima Community Power Declaration
08 Renewable energy - hope for Fukushima
communities
Research
10 Zero Carbon Israel Research Conclusions and
Analysis
Report
16 2014 Small Wind World Report
22 Statistics of Wind Power Development in China
2013
34 Italian Small Wind Report 06/2013
Regional Focus
36 Study on Onshore Wind Energy Potential in
Germany
42 Maximizing mineral resource outputs using
North Africas Trade Winds: The Sahara Wind
Project
Contents
3
4
News Analysis
ISSUE 1 March 2014
Thr ee year s af t er Fuk ushi ma:
T
hree years after the
Fukushima nuclear
disaster, the Global100RE
Ambassadors are
highlighting the need to refrain from
using hazardous nuclear and fossil
energy sources and instead shift
towards 100% renewable energy.
Ambassadors of the Global 100%
Renewable Energy Campaign Bill
McKibben, David Suzuki, Hans-Josef
Fell, Jeremy Leggett, and Ulrich Kelber
call on policy makers around the
world to take action as transitioning
towards fossil-free societies is a matter
of political will. If human beings are
to preserve modernity and planetary
habitability, we must soon shift to
100% renewable energy in all sectors.
The burning of fossil fuels is the
main reason behind a 40% increase in
CO2 concentrations since the industrial
revolution (IPCC 2013). To avoid a
further growth of greenhouse gas
concentration, a stop of greenhouse
gas emission is urgently necessary.
Therefore a sustainable and efficient
energy system is the prerequisite for
achieving the internationally agreed
upon climate protection target.
Both present and future
generations are relying on our
acts right now to create a future
transitionally less reliant on
dirty energy, says David Suzuki,
scientist, broadcaster, author, and
philanthropist. Our dependence upon
fossil resources has built a system that
lacks diversity and security, threatens
the health of our citizens, jeopardizes
the stability of Earth's climate, and
robs future generations of clean air,
clean water, and energy independence.
The good news is that solutions
exist. From North America, to Europe,
Africa, Asia and Oceania communities,
islands, cities and countries show
that making the transition to 100%
renewable energy is a political decision
and an ethical imperative - the technical
options do exist. The Ambassadors
of the international campaign Global
100% Renewable Energy champion
these success stories as encouragement
and catalyst for change. Cities and
communities show that we can ramp
up renewable energy dramatically
and quickly. We need to carry this
message around the planet fast," says
Bill McKibben, renowned author,
environmentalist and founder of 350.org.
I think that its very encouraging
to see communities moving away from
fossil resources. From them we learn
that its possible to power a modern
economy 100% with renewables, and
to do it much quicker than people
anticipate, says Jeremy Leggett,
founder and chairman of Solarcentury
and SolarAid.
A growing global movement
among local and regional governments
is proving that meeting 100% of
our energy demand with renewable
energy is viable. Germany is one of
the frontrunners in Europe on 100%
Renewable Energy with 74 regions
and municipalities that have already
reached 100% renewable energy
status, says Ulrich Kelber, Member of
the German Parliament.
While being an inspiration,
the move towards 100% Renewable
Energy is still taking place in scattered
communities and regions around the
globe. We need to translate these best
practices into best policies on national
level, says Hans-Josef Fell, former
Member of German Parliament and co-
author of the German Feed- in Tariff
law. Policy makers have taken up
measures nowhere near proportional
to the urgency to act taking into
consideration today's crises like
climate change, loss of biodiversity,
resource scarcity and poverty.
100% r enewabl e ener gy i s
onl y a mat t er of pol i t i c al w i l l
5
News Analysis
ISSUE 1 March 2014
J apanese r egi ons t r ansi t i on t o
T
he local governments
across Japan are seeking to
supply their regions with
100% renewable energy,
three years after the major earthquake
which resulted in a nuclear disaster.
At the Community Power Conference
in Fukushima, the Founding Partners
of the Global 100% Renewable Energy
Campaign welcome the decision of
Fukushima prefecture to be entirely
energy self-sufficient by 2040 using
only renewable sources. Among them
are the Japan-based Institute for
Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP),
World Future Council (WFC), World
Wind Energy Association (WWEA)
and the coordinating organization of
the German 100% Renewable Energy
region network deENet.
The Great East Japan earthquake,
the subsequent tsunami and the
disaster at the Fukushima-daiichi
nuclear power plant in March 2011
encouraged the people of Fukushima
to reassess their energy system and
to revitalize industry in the shattered
region. This led to a vision to
transition to renewable energy as a
pathway forward, says Tetsunari IIDA,
Executive Director of ISEP. Fukushima
prefecture now has an official
commitment to cover 100% of primary
energy demand in Fukushima with
renewable resources by 2040.
In the process of revitalizing
Fukushima, the authorities have
adopted the slogan "Future From
Fukushima". Stefan Gsnger, Secretary
General of the World Wind Energy
Association, says In line with the new
slogan, it is an important message that
Japanese regions are sending from
Fukushima when joining the global
movement of cities, communities,
regions and countries celebrating their
recent transition to 100% renewable
energy. As we see in an increasing
number of places around the world,
100% renewable energy is technically
and economically viable.
While the national government
of Japan prepares for the restart of the
nuclear reactors, it is very encouraging
to see communities and mayors
leading the way in exploring successful
planning and implementation strategies
towards 100% renewable energy, says
Stefan Schurig, Director Climate Energy
of the World Future Council.
The implementation of feed-
in tariffs in 2012 triggered the
acceleration of renewable energy
development in many areas in Japan.
In the course of such development,
the bottom up approach among local
stakeholders has been one of the major
driving forces. Members of the Global
100% RE Campaign now highlight
the importance of mechanisms and
policies that enable local stakeholders
to reap the benefits of local renewable
resources. Fortunately, Japan does
not have to reinvent the wheel. Case
studies from around the world provide
valuable experiences and tools to
bring socio- economic development by
transitioning towards 100% renewable
energy (RE). In Germany, a network
of 100% renewable energy regions
includes 74 regions and municipalities
that have already reached 100%
renewable energy status, says Peter
Moser, Division Manager for Regional
Sustainable Development of deENet.
The Global 100% RE Campaign
aims to inspire change by highlighting
and visualizing a 100% renewable
energy future a future that is already
reality in many regions. By engaging
a broad range of stakeholders in the
debate, for example through the new
campaign website www.go100re.net,
Global 100% RE helps to steer the
debate on renewable energy towards
100% RE as the new normal.
100% r enewabl e ener gy
6
News Analysis
ISSUE 1 March 2014
F
rom 31 January till 2
February, delegates
from Fukushima, Japan
and further Asian
countries, America, Australia and
Europe gathered in Fukushima
for the International Community
Power Conference. After three days
of inspiring, encouraging and very
interactive exchange of ideas and
experiences, they have agreed on the
following declaration:
Three years ago, the world was
shocked by the triple, devastating
catastrophe of earthquake, tsunami
and nuclear meltdown. The nuclear
disaster of Daiichi and its hazardous
impact on the life of millions of people
in Fukushima prefecture and in whole
Japan has opened the eyes of people
around the world and demonstrated
in an impressive way that the risks of
nuclear power are too big and cannot
be controlled and are irresponsible.
As a highly centralized energy source,
nuclear power is generating profit
for few big corporations while many
citizens have to bear the risks and
suffer from the impact of a nuclear
accident.
In this sense, we express our
deep solidarity with the people of
Fukushima, in particular in those
areas which were and are still heavily
affected by the devastating tsunami
and nuclear disaster. The people of
Fukushima, many of which were forced
or are still forced to live away from
their homes, are suffering most from
the terrible accident.
The whole world knows
Fukushima now for the nuclear
disaster and its name has almost
become synonymous for nuclear
catastrophe, ignoring the beauty of the
area and the gentleness of its citizens.
We applaud Fukushima
prefecture for its decision to become
a 100% renewable energy region
by 2040 at the latest. This decision
can revise the current image and
even turn it into the opposite, by
making Fukushima a world leader in
renewable energy and a model for the
world.
To some, the 100% renewable
energy goal as adopted by Fukushima
prefecture may sound like a dream.
But we know today communities
around the world, where such dream
has already become a concrete
vision and in some places 100%
renewable energy is already a reality
today. Renewable energy has helped
communities around the world to keep
their dignity, their independence and
healthiness.
Renewable energies are
offered by nature in a decentralized
manner and, different from nuclear
of fossil resources, cannot become
monopolized. Nobody can control
the wind or the sun, but everybody
can harvest them, without doing any
damage to its neighbors.
Fuk ushi ma Communi t y
Power Decl ar at i on
A solar park within the 20 km zone, such installations bring
now new hope to the local citizens who have lost so much.
Photo:Stefan Gsnger
7
News Analysis
ISSUE 1 March 2014
Renewable energies offer
opportunities for all human beings.
Harvesting renewable energies like
sun, wind, hydropower, geothermal
energy or bioenergy, will strengthen
local communities by creating new
opportunities for income and wealth.
Renewable energies strengthens
essentially self-governance, local
autonomy, and democratic structures,
and they provide energy in a truly
sustainable, environmental friendly
and not hazardous way.
Of course renewable energies
need to be harvested with the consent
of the local citizens. This is why
community power initiatives have to
play a vital role in a renewable energy
strategy. Communities can even play
a driving role in a bottom-up process,
as it has occurred in several European
countries, like Denmark or Germany.
While we have seen encouraging
steps in many municipalities
and prefectures around Japan,
we are worried about the recent
developments on the national level.
We are also worried about similar
developments in other parts of the
world, where the strong nuclear lobby
seems to get an increasing influence on
political decisions, against the interest
of the general public.
Japan has made some initial steps
towards a renewable energy future,
e.g. by introducing a feed-in tariff for
electricity from renewable sources.
In solar energy, some progress can
be observed, although the pace is
still slow. At the same time, Japan has
slowed down wind energy deployment
and even dropped out of the top ten
countries worldwide in terms of
installed wind capacity. Therefore we
call upon the government of Japan, the
Japanese prefectures, municipalities
and legislators on all levels to seriously
support the deployment of all kinds
of renewable energy with appropriate
legislation and policies. We offer our
advice on identifying such tools, based
on the international experience.
However, it is obvious that the
influence of nuclear and fossil fuel
lobby groups on political decision
makers is still very strong. Hence it
will be essential that communities
that aim at becoming 100% renewable
energy communities strengthen their
political impact by cooperating closely
and extending their networks.
We highly welcome the launch
of the Fukushima Community Power
Fund and call on community power
proponents in Japan to support the
fund so that it can soon become fully
operational and support community
power groups in investing in
renewable energy projects.
On the international and global
level, renewable energy communities
need to intensify their cooperation
as well, either by joining existing
networks (such as for wind the WWEA
Community Power Working Group) or
by creating new networks.
We warmly welcome the recently
launched Global 100% Renewable
Energies campaign and call upon
community power proponents in Japan
and all over the world to support this
campaign.
Renewable energy communities
are also willing to work with the
International Renewable Energy
Agency on strengthening the social
support for renewable energy.
In order to do so, we promise each other to start collective actions below:
to launch community power alliance for 21th century,
based on this lively network to launch Fukushima community power fund
to support and accelerate social innovation in Fukushima through community
power
to change our history from today and now.
Fukushima, 2 February 2014
A solar park within the 20 km zone, such installations bring
now new hope to the local citizens who have lost so much.
8
News Analysis
ISSUE 1 March 2014
I
n spite of the beauty of its
landscape and the gentleness
of its citizens, the name of city
and prefecture Fukushima has
become synonymous with nuclear
disaster. The way to change this into
the opposite should be based on the
wise decision taken by Fukushima
prefecture to get all its energy from
renewable sources Fukushima could
become world famous for its progress
in renewable energy!
Wind, sun and other renewable
energy sources can not only provide
all energy in an environmental
friendly way, but they have the
potential of reviving the economy, in
particular in the areas which were
heavily devastated and even had to be
evacuated.
Farmers can use their fields
for wind turbines or solar panels,
sometimes instead of crops, and
hence create a new basis for economic
activities and for income generation in
the area. Such a new economy, based
on renewables, can create hundreds
and thousands of jobs we can see
this practically done in a similar way
today in hundreds of municipalities
in Denmark, Germany, and in more
countries.
Local communities - hope
for renewables
With the local communities
becoming the driving forces in the
revival of the devastated areas,
such development can bring new
prospects for many other regions as
well. Decision-makers in government,
industry and society in general
can learn and benefit from such
experience!
Still, the importance of
communities as investors and as
drivers of the renewable energy uptake
is often underestimated. However,
communities are not only crucial for
social support there is scientific
evidence that local ownership
goes hand in hand with high local
acceptance.
Communities, especially those
in industrialized countries, have also
enough money to invest in power
generation. Assuming such a role,
communities can even ease the
Renewabl e ener gy -
Stefan Gsnger, Secretary General, WWEA
hope f or Fuk ushi ma c ommuni t i es
A solar powered radiometer in
front of a house which was damaged
by the tsunami and not restored
because of radiation.
Photo:Stefan Gsnger
9
News Analysis
ISSUE 1 March 2014
About the campaign
Global 100% RE is the first
global initiative that advocates 100%
renewable energy. It connects the
fragmented dots of renewable energy
advocates to build a global alliance,
proving that being powered by 100%
sustainable renewable energy is
urgent and achievable. This unique
campaign builds on projects that are
already taking place on national,
regional and local levels and steers
the global discourse on renewable
energy towards 100% RE as the
new normal. The goal is to initiate
dialogue about 100% RE, build
capacity and educate policymakers
about the opportunities, case studies
and stories that are happening all
over the world. For this purpose the
campaign aims to establish a global
network of 100% RE regions.
For further information about
the campaign, please visit the
website www.go100re.net
financial burden of public spending by
raising the financial resources which
are necessary for investment in public
infrastructure such as electricity. As
a consequence, the manufacturing
industries would also benefit greatly
from a stable and growing domestic
market.
Wind power - the
neglected energy source
Without doubt, wind power
represents today the cheapest form
of new investment in electricity
generation. And, in addition, wind
power plants can be installed very
rapidly. China alone installed within
the year 2013 16 Gigawatt of new
wind turbines. Germany, more similar
to Japan in terms of its social and
economic structure, added 3 Gigawatt
of wind, more than the current total
Japanese wind capacity, within only
one year, and generates today around
10 % of its electricity from wind
power. Denmark produces already
one third of its electricity from wind
turbines! And in Denmark as well as
in Germany, communities have been
the mainstream type of investors who
made this change possible. Instead of
spending money for imported energy
resources, the money stays with the
local communities and creates jobs
and income.
Japans industrial and scientific
strength, together with the support
from its local communities, are
excellent conditions for a similar
development and for a wind
power boom in the country. An
alliance between the wind power
industry proponents, between its
internationally leading academia and
the community investors could be a
great step in order to make Japan a
global wind power champion!
Research ISSUE 1 March 2014
10
The Israel Energy Forum, a non-
governmental organization focusing
on sustainable energy advocacy in
Israel, has completed research on
the possibility of reaching 100%
renewable energy (RE) sources for the
Israeli Electricity Sector. The Israeli
situation is challenging, as renewable
sources are limited. Israel has
effectively zero hydro or geothermal
energy potential, its high population
density raises obstacles for solar and
wind installation, and it lacks inter-
grid connection with neighbouring
countries. The research applied
a unique optimization method to
calculate the best economic portfolio of
RE, with a surprising result that the
total cost of a fossil based electricity
sector (including external costs), and
an efficient sector with up to 80% of
RE, are similar.
1. Introduction
Israel is a highly populated
country 7,7 million people on 20000
sq. km. with a high population growth
rate of 1,5 % annually. It has an
industrialized and growing economy
with 3,1 % real annual GDP growth.
These parameters put a high strain
on the electricity sector, which has to
increase by 3,3 % annually to support
the growing demand. In addition, the
Israeli grid is not connected to its
neighbouring countries and hence
cannot rely on backup imports to
cover shortfalls. The current official
estimates are that the Israeli grid
cannot support more then 20-30 % of
RE.
The research aimed at finding the
highest possible penetration ratio of
RE in Israel, taking into consideration
all energy efficiency (EE) measures,
and technically and economically
feasible RE sources. The research
considered the following RE sources:
Solar both PV and thermal, Wind
both on- and off-shore, waste to
energy (WTE), wave power, and energy
storage, mainly using pumped energy
storage (PES).
2. Methodology
The research began by estimating
future electricity demand at the target
year of 2040. After applying multi-
variable analysis, we found that the
best estimate would be a simple linear
extrapolation, which suggested a total
future demand of 101TWh in 2040.
We then estimated the possible EE
measures in 2040, taking into account
efficient appliances (e.g. more efficient
air conditioners), using solar heaters,
Resear c h Concl usi ons and Anal ysi s
Shahar Dolev
,
, Yael Cohen-Paran , Noam Segal
* Tel Aviv University
The Israel Energy Forum

11
energy efficient buildings (requiring
less A/C), and behaviour changes of
energy usage patterns (e.g. set the
A/C thermostat to 240C instead of
180C). The results were impressive
an average of 34 % could be reduced
from the 2040 "Business as Usual"
target demand if green building
would start today, and if the state
would encourage citizens to use more
efficient appliances and change their
usage patterns.
The next stage was to fit RE
sources within the hourly demand
curve for electricity over a full year
period. We estimated the hourly
demand curve by modifying a current
demand curve in two ways (a)
increasing the demand by multiplying
the current curve by a constant factor,
so as to achieve a yearly sum equal to
the estimated total sum at 2040; (b)
we considered the fact that in a RE
based future, the Time-of-Use pricing
will be inverted the solar facilities
will produce a surplus of cheap
electricity at noon, and during the
night a shortage will occur that will
require costly storage facilities or fossil
fuel backup as a result, prices will
be lower at noon and higher at night.
In order to integrate the effect of this
inversion into our model, we shifted
part of the demand from night to noon
by multiplying the curve by an inverted
cosine shaped factor, with a 24 hours
wave-length.
After we calculated the adjusted
demand curve, we prepared a
simulation model that fits a given
amount of RE sources, hour by hour, on
the demand curve for a full year. The
model also took into account energy
storage a given amount of storage
is assumed, it is charged with excess
energy when RE production is higher
then demand, and discharged when
production is lower than demand.
We assumed that the remaining
shortage will be filled in by fossil
sources. The simulation also has an
economic module that calculates the
total cost of a full year of electricity
supply. The economic model took into
account the capital cost of electricity
generation units, spread over the
facilitys life span; maintenance and
operation (M&O) costs; fuel cost (for
fossil facilities); and external costs
the cost of damage afflicted on society
by emissions from the facility, or,
for solar installations, the social and
environmental costs of land used for
solar fields. The simulation was able to
Resear c h Concl usi ons and Anal ysi s
12
calculate the fossil capacity required
to back-up the RE sources, as well as
the Capacity Factor for all sources (the
proportion of the time the facility was
generating at rated power, within a full
year).
In order to determine the optimal
portfolio of RE, we ran an economic
optimization. The optimization began
with 100% fossil electricity sector
60% natural gas based, and 40%
coal adding RE sources in small
steps. In each step the optimization
ran the simulation on 6 different
paths increasing the capacity of PV;
increasing Solar Thermal capacity;
increasing Onshore Wind; increasing
Offshore Wind; increasing Storage
Capacity (the sum of power generation
capacity); and increasing Storage Hours
(the total energy that can be stored).
It then selected the path that gave
the lowest marginal cost to convert a
generated kWh from fossil to RE.
Increasing the capacity of a
certain technology suffers from
diminishing returns at first all of the
produced electricity is consumed, but
as the same technology is selected and
increased again and again, during peak
generation, the produced power will
exceed the demand and the storage
capacity, requiring that the superfluous
electricity be dumped. As a result, the
price of a converted kWh calculated
by dividing the installation cost of the
technology by the number of kWh
consumed will increase (because a
certain amount of the produced kWh
will be dumped and never consumed).
The cost will rise until a different
technology will be able to deliver a
better result. The optimization will
then select the different technology
in a way that gives the best economic
value.
The whole optimization was run
three times once for Business As
Usual (BAU) demand (101 TWh/a),
once for middle efficiency scenario
(86 TWh/a), and once for maximum
efficiency scenario (64 TWh/a). The
Table 1. Energy Sources and their respective Data Sources
Energy Source Data Sources
Solar PV
An average of PV panel production in a city in the center of Israel, and true production data from a PV feld in the
desert in the south of Israel.
The average represents a mixture of rooftop panels and solar felds in the desert.
We made an estimation of the total roof area that would be available for PV installation in 2040 and found that it will
meet most of the requirement, eliminating the need to install large PV felds on land.
Solar Thermal A simulation of a thermal station production in the south of Israel. We also assumed a 4 hour thermal storage capacity.
Onshore Wind
Average data from 10 meteorological stations in preferred locations in Israel, in which the average wind speed is
estimated to be higher than 5.5 m/s. The data from the meteorological stations was mathematically 'lifted' to turbine
hub height.
We considered the total area with a 5.5 m/s wind and above, subtracting natural reserves and military zones, and
divided the result by 2. Although the result was higher than the current estimate of wind potential in Israel, we see this
calculation as conservative.
Offshore Wind
Satellite data that estimates the wind speed from wave height in the Mediterranean Sea, in front of Israel's shores.
In order to keep a conservative view, we considered only 2 farms of 100 turbines offshore in 2040.
Waste to Energy
Ministry of the Protection of the Environment predictions for organic waste in Israel, both wet (Municipal Solid Waste
and wastewater sludge), and dry (agricultural waste and municipal tree trimmings). Energy extraction from wet waste
through anaerobic digestion, and from dry waste through pyrolysis
Waves Estimates of production from future facilities on wave breakers
Storage
Mostly Pumped Energy Storage at sites that were identifed by the Energy Ministry as suitable. With addition of Electric
Vehicles' batteries.
13
most important result, from our
point of view, was finding a Revenue
Neutral (RN) point: the point in
which the cost of an efficient and clean
electricity sector is equal to the cost of
a 0/0 scenario zero efficiency and
zero RE.
3. Results
Our first observation was that it is
indeed possible to achieve a very high
penetration of RE, even in a restricted
situation like Israel. The optimization
showed that as we add more RE
resources, the amount of usable
renewable kWh increases, although
in a decreasing rate. However, under
the current limits, the RE production
approaches a certain ratio that cannot
be crossed. This ultimate ratio is high
(above 85 %), and depends on the
amount of EE implemented.
3.1. Sources
The RE sources used in the
simulation are as follows:
The analysis shows that wind
sources, either on- or off-shore, are
crucial for achieving high RE ratio.
The rising production of wind in
the afternoon supports the solar
generation that declines at that time,
while the electricity demand is still
high, thereby reducing the need for
energy storage and fossil backup
solutions.
Although the wind pattern in
each site shows chaotic properties, the
sum of several sites located across the
country shows a semi-regular pattern.
During summer days the wind usually
rises in the afternoon, at about the
same time that the solar production
begins to decline. On winter days the
pattern is less regular there might be
several days without significant wind,
followed by several days of strong
wind. This irregular pattern demands
large storage facilities to store the
excess energy produced during the
windy days for use in the days of calm
weather.
Another observation is related
to the importance of offshore wind.
According to the satellite data, it
appears that the offshore wind is
stronger than the onshore wind, it
blows for longer time, and in a more
ordered manner. However, since the
offshore technology is still developing,
and since the wind sector in Israel is
still in its infancy, we included only
a limited amount of offshore wind
installations.
3.2. Economic Analysis
The Economic Model used a
certain portfolio of RE sources and
calculated the total cost to supply the
demand, according to the adjusted
demand curve, on every hour in a full
year of operation. The model included
the following costs:
Overnight capital: The cost of
constructing the generation facility
(either fossil or renewable), divided
over its years of operation, and
amortized using a proper discount rate
5 % for fossil units, and 7 % for RE
units (expressing the higher risk in RE
facilities).
Fixed Operating and Maintenance:
The O&M cost that depends only on
the capacity of the generation unit.
Variable Operating and
Maintenance: The O&M cost that
depends on the amount of energy
generated.
Fuel Cost: for fossil generation
units.
External Costs: The cost of pollution
illness, healthcare, and damage to
infrastructure, based on standard
values published by the Ministry for
Protection of the Environment. For PV
installations we also included the cost
of land use.
After calculating the total cost, we
divided the total cost by the amount
of kWh consumed, a method that
Renewable, sustainable resources can supply
stable, around the clock, electricity, providing
energy security for Israeli citizens.
Utilizing the full potential of energy efficiency
measures, it is possible to supply 80% of
Israel's electricity demand from
renewable resources, at no greater cost than
from fossil fuels.
14
internalizes two kinds of hidden costs.
One is due to electricity generated
by the renewable sources above the
demand and the storage capacity, and
which has to be dumped. The second
is due to fossil generation power
plants that stand idle, waiting to start
operation to cover shortages in the
renewable production.

We did not include in the
calculation the cost of fossil reserve
above the required demand usually
10-20 % of excess generation is required
by the grid designers to support
occasions of failure in the generation
infrastructure. However, the same cost
will be required in both the fossil, BAU,
scenario and the RE scenario, therefore
the reserve requirement incurs a
constant cost that doesnt differentiate
between the fossil and RE scenario.
Moreover, the diversity of sources in the
RE scenario increases the reliability of
the system as a whole, thereby lowering
the reserve requirement. In that respect,
our decision to disregard the cost of
generation reserve is a conservative one.
3.3. Towards 100 % RE
As we ran the optimization,
going from 100 % fossil fuels towards
increasing penetration of RE, we
noticed that at the initial stage the total
cost of the electricity sector declined,
in spite of the fact that the per-MW
cost of RE is higher than that of fossil
sources. This is a result of several
trends: at the early stage the cheapest
RE sources were utilized, while the
most expensive and dirty fossil sources
were retired; this lowered both energy
generation costs and the external
costs, and all of the RE produced were
consumed (so no energy was dumped).
After a certain stage, however, the cost
begun rising as expected. That means
that at some ratio of RE penetration,
the total cost returned to the cost of
the zero RE scenario. We called that
point "Revenue Neutral" (RN), since
all the profits earned from utilizing RE
were invested back into constructing
the infrastructure needed for the RE
production.
With no effort to increase energy
efficiency, the total cost of supplying
the demand using fossil sources was
estimated at 25,1B NIS, plus 12,4B
NIS as external costs, totalling 37,5B
NIS. At that price, up to 36 % of RE
can be installed! Above that ratio, the
cost will rise, and at about 70% RE
a "Hockey Stick" like turn will occur
causing the price to increase sharply.
As the optimization continued, the RE
penetration ratio continued to rise,
albeit slowly, to a ratio of about 80 %,
which is the ultimate limit in the no-
efficiency scenario, with the current
technology.
With full implementation of EE,
the total demand will decrease by 36%,
making it easier (and cheaper) to supply
the demand using RE. In that case, 37,5B
NIS would buy us up to 80 % of RE
(including paying for the EE measures
that were used). Here, too, there is a
sharp rise in the cost of converting a
kWh from fossil production to RE at
about 85 % of RE, and the ultimate ratio
of RE would be 95%.
Our analysis shows the tight
relation between EE and RE - without
EE only a low ratio of RE can be
achieved, but as EE implementation
increases, the economic (RN), as
well as the ultimate, penetration of
RE increases. However, there is an
additional link between EE and RE
when the electricity sector is based
on fossil generation, the installed
base of power plants will be regarded
as "sunk cost" (cost that has already
been paid, and now can be utilized to
increase profits), presenting an unfair
competition to RE, that still requires
investment this situation imposes a
negative incentive on developing RE.
Investment in EE, on the other hand,
will allow the deferral of the building
of fossil generation units, allowing
an increase in the RE portfolio. Once
the RE units are operating, these have
their own sunk cost, which decreases
the incentive to build fossil units.
We also performed sensitivity
analysis. We based our economic
calculation on current prices, and
not projected prices either for fuels
or RE facilities. However, the cost of
RE generation is still declining, and
the forecast for the coming decades
is that future prices will be lower.
On the other hand there are several
expectations regarding fossil fuels
some experts suggest that were at the
end of the cheap oil era (Peak Oil
theory), and fossil fuels prices will be
on the rise, while others suggest that
theres abundance of oil and gas in
shale oil layers and future prices will
decrease. We ran the optimization
with such assumptions, namely:
price reduction of 20 % for RE, price
increase of 25 % of fossil fuels, the
combination of the two, and reduction
15
Development of energy from renewable resources with a reduction of energy
generation from fossil fuels, according to the recommended optimization mix-to
achieve 80% renewable resources in 2040, at no additional cost over "business-
as-usual" scenario.
of 20 % of fossil fuel prices. We also
tested the optimization once with no
limits on offshore-wind, and once with
no limit on storage capacity.
The results were unsurprising
the decline of RE costs, or rise of
fuels cost, both slightly improved
the results the proportion of RE
at the RN point went up 7% and 4
% respectively. Decline in fuel cost
brought the proportion down by 7
%. Removing the limit on offshore
wind rose the proportion by 2 %, but
more importantly, allowed almost
100 % of electricity to be achieved
from renewable sources while the
total cost at high RE penetration went
down by about 30 %. Lifting the limit
on storage, on the other hand, didnt
change the proportion at the RN
point, but reduced the total cost by
about 50 %.
4. Limitations
The research did not account
for the transmission and distribution
(T&D) infrastructure. Although the
research shows that it is possible to use
a high proportion or RE, it is yet to be
validated that the T&D infrastructure
will be able to carry the loads from
the new generation facilities to the
consumers. Installing a high ratio of RE
sources will require an increase in the
transmission capacity from the desert
and wind zones to populated areas,
and a strengthening of the distribution
network to support bi-directional
operation due to rooftop PV systems
and micro wind turbines. However, the
T&D infrastructure would have to be
fortified in the fossil scenario as well
new fossil generation units planned
in remote, less populated, areas would
require increases to the transmission
capacity, and distributed generation
using micro-turbines and CHP systems
would require strengthening of the
distribution network for bi-directional
mode of operation.
The analysis considered a single
year. In order to verify the model in
extreme conditions (long durations
without sun or wind), a longer analysis
should be performed, using Monte
Carlo method to simulate the weather
conditions of several years. Then
run the optimization again on this
extended period.
5. Conclusions
The research question for this
work was whether a high proportion
of RE is technically and economically
possible in the special situation of
Israel. The research proved that it is
possible. Indeed its still impossible
to reach a full 100 % or RE in the
current technology, but future storage
technology and a better and cheaper
offshore wind technology, will enable
Israel to reach that ultimate goal.
Meanwhile, the energy policy should
focus on EE in order to reduce the
electricity demand, especially in regard
to the energy saving aspects of green
building every building that is not
built today as efficient as possible, will
require additional energy for heating,
cooling and lighting, in decades to
come. At the same time, the policy
should promote wind projects, on-
and off-shore, and rooftop PV. If we
start today, in 25 years time, when the
local natural gas reserves will dry out,
Israel will have a clean and sustainable
replacement in the form of a renewable
based energy sector.
16
Report ISSUE 1 March 2014
2014 Smal l Wi nd
Small Wind World Market
continue growing
The world market for small wind
has continued to grow: As of the end
of 2012, a cumulative total of at least
806000 small wind turbines were
installed all over the world. This is an
increase of 10 % compared with the
previous year, when 730000 units
were registered.
Most of the growth happens in
only three countries: China, USA and
UK. This situation is a clear indication
that the world market for small wind
turbines is still in its infancy stage. In
most countries you can at least find
a handful of small wind turbines, but
the vast majority of these countries
is far from market size which would
enable companies to reach mass
production. More and better policies
are imperative for making small wind
a success all over the world.
The numbers presented here are
based on available figures and even
exclude major markets such as India
and Italy so that WWEA estimates an
actual total number of close to one
million units to be installed worldwide.
China is still the by far largest
market in terms of units ever installed,
and the number of cumulative installed
units grew by 70000 to a total of
570000 by end of the year 2012. This
represents 70% of the world market in
terms of total as well as new installed
units. According to estimations,
around half of the turbines continue to
produce electricity in China given that
this market started already in the early
1980s.
The second largest market can
be found in the USA with a total of
155000 units installed, clearly behind
China, but well ahead of a number of
medium-sized small wind markets.
The UK, Canada, Germany, Japan
and Argentina are all medium-sized
markets with total number of small
Wor l d Repor t
17
wind turbines between 7000 and
23500 units.
In terms of new installations
China is again leading by far with
70000 units, followed by two
countries: The US and the British
market had both similar size, with
3700 respectively 3646 units installed
in 2012. However, both markets have
only 5 % of the size of the Chinese
market.
18 % Registered increase
in Global Small Wind
Capacity
The recorded small wind capacity
installed worldwide has reached more
than 678 MW as of the end of 2012.
This is a growth of 19 % compared
with 2011, when 576 MW were
registered. In 2011, the growth rate
was still at 21 %.
China accounts for 39 % of the
global capacity, the USA for 31 % and
UK for 9,4 %.
These three leading markets,
China, USA and UK installed together
around 89 MW of new capacity in the
year 2012 (80 % of the world market),
a capacity increase of 16 %, slightly
below the global growth rate.
The USA small wind market grew
by 18,4 MW in 2012, representing
around 3700 installations and $101
million in investment. On a unit basis,
small wind turbines comprised 35% of
all 2012 USA wind installations
1
.
In the UK, the small wind market
witnessed further growth in 2012
mainly driven by the Feed-in tariff
scheme. 37 MW were installed during
2012 with the biggest growth rate
observed in the 15 kW -100 kW size
range.
Globally, an increase in the
average size of small wind turbines
can be observed: In 2010, the average
installed size was 0,66 kW, in 2011
0,77 kW, and in 2012, it has already
reached 0,84 kW.
Country wise, the average size
is quite diverse: While the average
Chinese turbine has a capacity of 0,5
kW, small wind turbines in the US have
an average capacity of 1,4 kW and in
the UK even 3,7 kW.
Small Wind Turbine
Manufacturing
Five countries (Canada, China,
Germany the UK and the USA)
account for over 50 % of the small
wind manufacturers. By the end
of 2011, there are over 330 small
wind manufacturers that have been
identified in the world offering
complete one-piece commercialised
generation systems, and an estimate
of over 300 additional firms supplying
parts, technology, consulting and sales
services.
Based on the world distribution
of turbine manufacturers, the
production of small wind remains
concentrated in few world regions: in
China, in North America and in several
European countries. Developing
countries continue to play a minor
role in small wind manufacturing. It
is obvious that the tremendous wind
resources of Africa, Southeast Asia and
Latin America, where many regions
are ideally suited for small wind
application, have not yet lead to the
establishment of domestic small wind
industries and it would be worthwhile
joint efforts of these countries and
1: 2012 Market Report on Wind Technologies in Distributed Applications, U.S. Department of Energy
18
the international community to set up
international programmes to change
this.
However, in general the
small wind industry has already
demonstrated remarkable growth
in the past decade, as consumer
interest was increasing and many
new companies have entered the
sector. Figure 4 illustrates the raise
of the small wind industry in the past
decade: More than 120 new small
wind manufacturers were established
between 2000 and 2010 worldwide.
China alone has an exceptional
manufacturing capacity of more than
180000 units per annum (as of 2011).
This impressive size illustrates
how large the small wind sector could
become also in other world regions
and on the global scale. Compared with
its global potentials, the small wind
industry outside China is still very
small.
Technology and Major
Applications
Actually, what is seen today as
Big Wind started in the size which is
today defined as small wind. Until the
1970s and 1980s, most wind turbines
had a capacity of less than 100 kW. In
rural, isolated areas e.g. in China or
USA, such small wind turbines
where very common for
residential and farming needs,
including for water-pumping stations,
still a common technology in many
developing countries. Today, common
applications of small wind turbine
include:
Residential
Commercial and industrial
Fishery and recreational boats
Hybrid systems
Pastures, farms and remote villages
Potable systems for leisure
Pumping
Desalination and purification
Remote monitoring
Research and education
Telecom base stations
The early HAWT technology has
dominated the market for over 30
years. Based on the study of 327 small
19
wind manufacturers as of the end of
2011, 74 % of the commercialised
one-piece small wind manufacturers
invested in the horizontal axis
orientation while only 18 % have
adopted the vertical design. 6% of
the manufactures have attempted
to develop both technologies. As the
majority of the vertical axis models
have been developed in the past 5
to 7 years, the scale of market share
remains relatively small. The average
rated capacity of VAWT is estimated to
be 7,4 kW with a median rated capacity
of merely 2,5 kW. In comparison
with the traditional horizontal axis
orientation, the average and median
rated capacity are much smaller. Out
of the 157 models of vertical turbines
catalogued in this report, 88 % of
which are below 10 kW and 75 % are
below 5 kW. This corresponds well
with the actual market demand, as
the average unit sold in 2011 had a
capacity of 1,6 kW.
Despite a market trend that leans
towards a grid-tied system with larger
capacity, off-grid applications continue
to play an important
role in remote areas of
developing countries.
Off-grid applications
include rural residential
electrification,
telecommunication
stations, off-shore
generation, and hybrid
systems with diesel
and solar. Over 80 %
of the manufacturers
produce stand alone
applications. In
China, off-grid units
comprised 97 % of the market in
2009, and 2,4 million households still
lack electricity. For this reason off-
grid systems will continue to play a
significant role, in China and in many
other countries with non-electrified
areas.
In recent years, the market for
larger, grid-tied systems, has increased
in particular in some industrialised
countries, e.g. in the USA, UK or
Denmark.
As of the end of 2011, 25 small
wind manufacturers in the world have
the capability to fabricate turbines
between 50 kW and 100 kW.
Driving Factors
The future of the small wind
industry depends on the cost of
the technology, the enactment of
supportive policies and economic
incentives, fossil-fuel prices, investor
interest, consumer awareness,
certification and quality assurance,
permitting processes and regulations,
and wind evaluation tools. Financial,
wind, and energy experts anticipate
high growth rates for the production of
SWTs if consumer demand increases.
Costs
Cost remains to be the one of
the main factors and challenges in the
dissemination of small wind.
In the USA, the installed cost
estimates of top ten small wind turbine
models in 2011 ranged between
$2300/kW and $10000/kW, and the
average installed cost of all SWTs was
$6040/kW, an 11 percent increase
from 2010. The Chinese small wind
industry yielded, in comparison, a
significantly lower average turnover of
12'000 Yuan/kW (1'900 USD 1'500
EUR).
The small wind industry is still
under development and without doubt
economies of scale will help to reduce
manufacturing cost in the future.
However, in order to achieve such cost
reductions, it is important that the
small wind markets will see further
growth, which requires appropriate
legal frameworks and support
schemes. Hence political incentives
continue to play a key role for the
wider deployment of small wind.
Policies
Like most other renewable
energy technologies and in particular
the market for big wind, the success
of the small wind market depends
on stable and appropriate support
schemes. Today, feed-in tariffs, net
metering, tax credits, and capital
subsidies are the major energy
policies geared specifically towards
small wind. The small wind sector has
20
especially benefited from the growing
global trend of feed-in tariffs (FITs).
Unfortunately, only few countries have
yet implemented specific FIT schemes
for small wind which can be seen
as the best tool for grid-connected
small wind. Whenever the wholesale
electricity prices are sufficiently high,
net-metering has also been an effective
incentive, e.g. in Denmark. Additional
policies that encourage the use of
renewable sources of energy also play
an important role in the growth of the
small wind industry.
However, tax credits and capital
subsidies may not be as effective as
production based incentives because
they promote directly the sales of
the hardware, but not the energy
generation itself, and hence may not
encourage sufficiently
investment in efficiency.
Standards & Certifica-
tion
The development
of standards and
certification, already
in progress, will serve
to promote the sales
of better-performing
SWTs, and the growth
of a healthy and well-
established market. As
safety and noise have
grown important due
to the proximity of the
technology to users, the
internationally accepted
IEC 61400-2 (3rd
edition, 2013) standard
from the International
Electrotechnical
Commission stipulates specific safety
design requirements. In 2009, the
American, Canadian, and British
Wind Energy Associations (now
RenewableUK) coordinated efforts
to develop the Small Wind Turbine
Performance & Safety Standard, a
subset based on IEC61400-2 (SWTs
design), IEC61400-12-1 (performance)
and IEC61400-11 (acoustics). The
derived standards were later adopted
by the AWEA and RenewableUK for
their certification programs Small
Wind Certification Council (SWCC) and
Microgeneration Certification Scheme
(MCS), respectively.
The International Energy
Agencys IEA Wind Task 27 has been
preparing a consumer label for small
wind turbines which aims at enabling
customers of small wind turbines
to easily get the basic information
about safety and performance of the
turbine while reducing the efforts for
the certification process compared
with large wind turbines. The first
consumer labels have been issued
respectively are about to be issued.
Wind Resource Assessment
The basic condition in order
to harvest wind power successfully
is of course the availability of wind:
Hence the accurate prediction of the
wind speed is essential to calculate
the electricity output of a small wind
generator, representing the basis for
its economic performance.
As wind assessment tools are
costly in relation to the cost of a
21
small wind turbine, this evaluation
currently presents a real challenge for
the small wind industry, however, it is
important to underline the importance
of such data at the site where the wind
generator is supposed to be installed.
Special challenges can be found
in urban environments: The shading
and turbulence effects of surrounding
obstacles may produce complex wind
patterns that are difficult to predict.
Traditional wind resource maps prove
inadequate as wind conditions are
evaluated at a greater altitude of 50 m
while most SWTs do not reach above
30 m. As a result, the vast demand for
inexpensive and efficient methods of
predicting and collecting local wind
data is another key driving factor that
requires further innovation and cost
reduction in the technology.
World Market Forecast
2020
The increasing demand for
clean and affordable energy all over
the world will without doubt lead
to an increasing demand for small
wind. In particular in the developing
countries, small wind can easily and
fast contribute to electrify millions of
people in rural areas. Governments
and international organisations such
as IRENA have started to understand
this potential and are now more and
more including small wind in their
renewable energy programmes.
Also several industrialised countries
have ambitious small wind targets
and corresponding policies in place.
In general, political support can be
expected to increase the installed
capacity of small wind in the upcoming
years further.
Increasing fossil fuel prices,
global warming and the ever-growing
electricity demand will continue to
be the three long-term drivers of the
small wind industry. In order for the
small wind technology to mature,
however, the industry must be driven
by supportive policies and standards.
The forecast is based on opinions
of industry experts, growth pattern
of the large wind industry, and the
historical growth trend of the solar
PV renewable industry for the past
decade that shares many characteristics
in common with the small wind industry.
Accordingly, the small wind industry can
be expected to follow similar growth
patterns of the large wind and solar
industry until 2020.
Recent trend of the small wind
industry has shown an annual 19
-35 % increase in the new installed
capacity for the past years. The rate of
growth is anticipated to continue until
2015, reaching an annual installation
of 190 MW of SWTs. Within this time
frame, individual countries and the
international small wind community
will be able to establish more rigorous
and structured standards and policies
to regulate the market and support
investments. Based on a conservative
assumption, the market could
subsequently see a steady compound
growth rate of 20 % from 2015 to
2020. The industry is forecasted to
reach approximately 480 MW of newly
installed capacity added annually
in 2020 and achieves a cumulative
installed capacity of close to 3 GW by
2020.
22
General Status
In the year of 2013, 9356 new wind
turbines were installed in China (excluding
Taiwan), bringing the total installed turbines
to 63120. The cumulative installed capacity
reached 91412.89 MW with the addition of
16088.7 MW within 2013, and the annual
growth rate of new and cumulative installed
capacity, both on the very top of the global
wind market, is 24.1% and 21.4%, respectively.
Regional Wind Power Installed
Capacity
In 2013, the development of wind power
in some regions has speeded up, particularly
in Northwest and Central South China. In
Northwest regions, the new installed capacity
reached 5435.2 MW, with a breaking annual
growth rate of 76.7%, while in Central South
the new installed capacity almost doubled
comparing with that in 2012, even though it
was only 1814.8 MW. In addition, North China
added 3505.05 MW during 2013 and the annual
growth rate is 13.4%.
The Northeast and Southwest China
regions saw a decelerated growth in 2013. In
the Northeast, new installed capacity is 1645.2
MW, falling 22.4% on an annual basis, and this
is the third year of its successive decrease of
growth rate. The sharp drop of new installation
in Yunnan Province, from 1031.75 MW in
2012 to 520 MW in 2013, leads to a modest
installation record in the Southwest, where
only 1307.7 MW were added and falling 10.7%.
On a provincial level, the new installed
capacity of the top five (Xinjiang, Inner
Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong, Ningxia) totaled
8275.7 MW, accounting for 51.4% of the
national new installation in the past year. For
the top three Provinces, Xinjiang added 3146
St at i st i c s of Wi nd Power
Devel opment
i n Chi na
Chinese Wind Energy
Association (CWEA)
In this statistics, the wind turbines installation
completed in the period from January 1st 2013
to December 31st 2013 are added, before grid
connect i on and commi ssi oni ng. Source of
information from wind turbine manufacturers has
been cross checked with wind farm developers
and project managers, their contributions are
appreciated.
2013
23
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
Notes: 1. East China includes Shandong, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian and Shanghai
2. North China includes Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia
3. Northwest region includes Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai,Shaanxin and Gansu
4. Central South region includes Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan
5. Southwest region includes Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet and Chongqing
6. Northeast region includes Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning
Fig. 1 China annual and
cumulative installed
wind power capacity
during 2001-2013
Fig. 2 China regional wind
power cumulative capacity
installed during 2007-2013
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
2001
Newly/MW
Total/MW
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
42 66 98 197 507 1288 3311 6154 13803 18929 17630 12960 16089
381 448 546 743 1250 2537 5848 12002 25805 44734 62364 75324 91413
0
35000
North east North China East China North west South west Central South HK,Macao
and Taiwan
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
UnitMW
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
24
MW, increasing 217%, Inner Mongolia newly
installed 1646.5 MW, growing 47%, and Shanxi
1308.95 MW with a annual growth rate of
27.6%.
Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Gansu
Provinces are still the biggest three in terms
of cumulative installed capacity at the end of
2013, with cumulative installation of 20270.31
MW, 8499.9 MW and 7095.95 MW, respectively.
Thanks to the performance in 2013, Shandong
exceeded Liaoning and took the fourth place
with a cumulative installation of 6980.5 MW,
leaving Liaoning the fifth with 6758.01 MW.
Offshore Wind Development
Chinese offshore wind made slow
progress in 2013, and only Dongfang, Envision
and United Power had installation in the
intertidal zone projects. 21 offshore wind
turbines were installed in China during 2013,
a decrease of 54% comparing to 2012, with
a new installation of 39 MW, 69% less than
the previous year. At the end of 2013, there
are 428.6 MW installed offshore wind power
capacity in China.
The 39 MW installed during 2013
was located in intertidal zones, where the
cumulative installed capacity reached 300.5
MW by the end of 2013, while the rest 128.1
MW was installed in near shore waters.
Sinovel, Goldwind and Siemens account
for the major share in offshore wind turbine
manufacturers in China, and 2MW and above
was most installed type. Among them, the
turbines from Sinovel and Siemens were mainly
installed in offshore projects, while Goldwind
mostly in intertidal zone projects.
Type of Turbines
The average capacity of new turbines
installed in 2013 was 1720 kW, 4.4% growth
compared to that in 2012. The average capacity
of cumulative installed turbines was 1448 kW,
increasing 3.3% than that of 2012.
Among the new installed wind turbines,
units of less than 1 MW only took up 0.8%. 1.5
MW was most installed type and accounted for
51% in the new installation, with a decrease of
13% compared to 63.7% of 2012. 2 MW wind
turbines market share increased from 26.1%
in 2012 to 31.6% in 2013.
During 2013, 2 MW and above wind
turbines (2.1 MW, 2.3 MW, 2.5 MW, 3 MW, 4
MW, 5 MW) market share achieved 13.8%,
of which mainly 2.5 MW and 2.1 MW and the
number of turbines installed were 469 and 213,
respectively. 79 turbines of 2.3 MW, 1 turbine of
4 MW and 1 of 5 MW were installed as well.
Among the cumulative installations,
Table 1 China offshore wind installation in 2013
Province Project Developer Manufacturer Number of turbines Capacity /MW
J iangsu
Longyuan Demonstration Project for 5 MW
prototype
Longyuan
Dongfang
1 5
J iangsu Xiangshui Intertidal T5 project Sanxia 1 3
J iangsu Rudong Intertidal trial project Longyuan Envision 1 4
Tianjin Longyuan Tianjin Binhai Project of 33MW Longyuan United Power 18 27
Total 21 39
Source: CWEA
25
Table 2 China offshore wind turbine installations by the end of 2013
No. Manufacturers Number of turbines Capacity /MW Share/%
1 Sinovel 56 170 39.7
2 Goldwind 44 109.5 25.5
3 Siemens 21 49.98 11.7
4 United Power 22 39 9.1
5 CSIC-Haizhuang 4 14 3.3
6 SEWIND 6 13.6 3.2
7 Dong Fang 2 8 1.9
8 XEMC-Wind 2 7.5 1.7
9 Envision 3 7 1.6
10 Ming Yang 3 6 1.4
11 SANY 2 4 0.9
Total 165 428.58 100
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Newly/MW
Total/MW
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
16 135.5 109.58 127 39
17.5 153 262.58 389.58 428.58
Fig. 3 China offshore
wind installation
during 2009-2013
turbines of less than 1 MW was only 9.7%,
and 1.5 MW was still the major type with a
proportion of 65.4%, though 3% less than
2012. 2 MW wind turbines market share
reached 16.6%, and 2.5 MW and above raised
to 3.5%.
Manufacturing Industry
The top 20 turbine manufacturers had
taken 96% of Chinese wind market in 2013.
Goldwind had installed 3750.25 MW in 2013
and ranked No.1 with the market share of
23.3%. Those ranked No.2 to No.5 were United
Power, Ming Yang, Envision and XEMC-Wind.
Their new installations were 1487.5 MW, 1286
MW, 1128.1 MW and 1052 MW, respectively.
The top 5 had taken 54.1% of the market
share, 6% decrease compared to that of 2012.
26
2000
Unit: kW
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
200
400
0
Annual Average Turbine Size Cumulative Average Turbine Size
Fig. 4 The growth of
average capacity of
wind turbines during
1991-2013
Fig. 5 Market share of
different capacities of
wind turbines installed
in 2013
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
<1MW0.79% 1.5MW50.96%
>2MW13.82%
2MW31.60%
1=<MW<2
(1.5MW excluded)2.80%
Among the top 5 manufacturers, the annual
growth rate in terms of new installation of
United Power decreased 26.7% compared to its
2012 performance. The other four companies
growth rate, namely Goldwind, Ming Yang,
Envision and XEMC-Wind, were up to 48.7%,
13.5%, 107.4% and 17.8%, respectively.
27
Fig. 6 Market share of different
capacities of wind turbines
installed by the end of 2013 Source: CWEA
1.5MW65.35%
<1MW9.66%
>2MW4.55%
2MW16.59%
1=<MW<2
(1.5MW excluded)3.85%
Photo:Gong Shen
28
Table 3 The top 15 manufacturers in China in 2013 (Annual Installed)
No. Manufacturers Number of turbines Capacity/MW Share/%
1 Goldwind 2249 3750.25 23.31
2 United Power 956 1487.5 9.25
3 Ming Yang 820 1286 7.99
4 Envision 621 1128.1 7.01
5 XEMC-Wind 526 1052 6.54
6 SEWIND 497 1014 6.30
7 Sinovel 492 896 5.57
8 CSIC-Haizhuang 406 786.7 4.89
9 Dong Fang 318 573.5 3.56
10 Windey 348 538.75 3.35
11 Vestas 283 507.7 3.16
12 CCWE 316 474 2.95
13 CSR 214 343.45 2.13
14 HEAG 219 314.1 1.95
15 TYHI 155 293 1.82
Others 936 1643.65 10.22
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
10.22% 23.31%
9.25%
7.99%
7.01%
1.82%
1.95%
2.13%
2.95%
3.16%
3.35%
3.56%
4.89%
5.57%
6.30%
6.54%
Goldwind
United Power
Ming Yang
Envision
XEMC-Wind
SEWIND
Sinovel
CSIC-Haizhuang
Dong Fang
Windey
Vestas
CCWE
CSR
HEAG
TYHI
Others
29
Table 4 The top 20 manufacturers in China in 2013 (Cumulative Installed)
No. Manufacturers Number of turbines Capacity/MW Share/%
1 Goldwind 14476 18950.6 20.73
2 Sinovel 9670 15076 16.49
3 United Power 5757 8798.5 9.63
4 Dong Fang 5219 7938 8.68
5 Ming Yang 3622 5542.5 6.06
6 Vestas 3458 4487.6 4.91
7 XEMC-Wind 1871 3746.5 4.10
8 SEWIND 2079 3617.45 3.96
9 Gamesa 3380 3535.85 3.87
10 Envision 1448 2420.6 2.65
11 CSIC-Haizhuang 1095 2061.45 2.26
12 CCWE 1361 2045.1 2.24
13 Windey 1777 2001.25 2.19
14 GE 1191 1809.9 1.98
15 CSR 1037 1645.75 1.80
16 Suzlon 649 901.3 0.99
17 HEAG 669 874.18 0.96
18 SANY 379 598 0.65
19 XJ 290 580 0.63
20 Nordex 471 574.2 0.63
Others 3221 4208.16 4.60
Total 63120 91412.89 100.00
Source: CWEA
Goldwind
United Power
Ming Yang
Envision
XEMC-Wind
SEWIND
Gamesa
Sinovel
CSIC-Haizhuang
Dong Fang
Windey
GE
Vestas
CCWE
CSR
Suzlon
HEAG
SANY
XJ
Nordex
Others
Source: CWEA
30
Wind Project Development
In 2013, China Guodian Corporation (CGC)
(Guodian Longyuan included) occupied the first
place in terms of new installed capacity with
1751.1MW (Longyuan 1055.1MW), accounting
for 10.9% of the total new installed capacity.
China Power Investment Corporation (CPIC)
had installed 1712.2 MW in 2013 and ranked
No.2 with a market share of 10.6%. China
Guangdong Nuclear Corporation (CGN) had
installed 1536.65 MW and ranked No.3 with a
market share of 9.6%.
In 2013, the cumulative installed capacity
of China Guodian Corporation is 17508.44 MW,
19.2% of the national cumulative installed
capacity. Those ranked No.2 and No.3 were
China Huaneng Group and China Datang
Corporation, their new installations were
10686.38 MW and 10569.16 MW, with the
market share of 11.7% and 11.6%, respectively.
Table 5 The top 10 developers in China in 2013 (Annual Installed)
No. Developers Capacity/MW Share/%
1 China Guodian Corporation 1751.1 10.88
2 China Power Investment Corporation 1712.2 10.64
3 China Guangdong Nuclear Corporation 1536.65 9.55
4 China Huaneng Group 1329.5 8.26
5 China Huadian Corporation 1163.95 7.23
6 Tianrun Group 879 5.46
7 China Datang Corporation 820.5 5.10
8 China Guohua Group 753 4.68
9 China Three Gorges Corporation 626 3.89
10 China Resources Corporation 554.3 3.45
Others 4962.5 30.84
Total 16088.7 100
China Guodian
Corporation10.88%
Others30.84%
China Resources
Corporation3.45%
China Three Gorges
Corporation3.89%
China Guohua
Group4.68%
China Datang
Corporation5.10%
Tianrun Group
5.46%
China Power Investment
Corporation10.64%
China Guangdong
Nuclear Corporation9.55%
China Huaneng
Group8.26%
China Huadian
Corporation7.23%
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
31
Table 6 The top 10 developers in China in 2013 (Cumulative Installed)
No. Developers Capacity/MW Share/%
1 China Guodian Corporation 17508.44 19.15
2 China Huaneng Group 10686.38 11.69
3 China Datang Corporation 10569.16 11.56
4 China Huadian Corporation 5865.35 6.42
5 China Power Investment Corporation 5268.32 5.76
6 China Guangdong Nuclear Corporation 5000.65 5.47
7 China Guohua Group 4897.05 5.36
8 China Resources Corporation 3079.15 3.37
9 Tianrun Group 2607.5 2.85
10 China Three Gorges Corporation 1928 2.11
Others 24002.89 26.26
Total 91412.89 100
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
China Guodian
Corporation19.15%
China Huaneng
Group11.69%
China Datang
Corporation11.56%
China Huadian
Corporation6.42%
Others26.26%
China Three Gorges
Corporation2.11%
Tianrun Group2.85%
China Resources
Corporation3.37%
China Guohua
Group5.36%
China Guangdong
Nuclear Corporation
5.47%
China Power Investment
Corporation5.76%
The other developers among the top 10 are
China Huadian Corporation, China Power
Investment Corporation, China Guangdong
Nuclear Corporation(CGN), China Guohua
Group, China Resources Corporation, Tianrun
Group, and China Three Gorges Corporation.
Overseas Markets
In 2013, there were seven Chinese wind
turbine manufacturers had export records,
and 341 Chinese turbines, which equals to
692.35 MW, were installed in overseas markets,
increasing 51.1% and 60.6% on the basis of
2012, respectively. By the end of 2013, Chinese
manufacturers have exported 748 wind
turbines with a total capacity of 1392.5 MW.
These turbines scatter in 27 countries, reaching
8 more markets than in 2012.
32
Table 7 Chinese wind turbine exports in 2013
Manufacturers Overseas Markets Number of Turbines Installed Cpacity/MW
Goldwind
Australia 73 165.5
Pakistan 33 49.5
Panama 22 55
Bolivia 2 3
Romania 20 50
Turkey 7 5.25
Chile 22 33
Sinovel
South Africa 18 54
Sweden 10 30
Turkey 12 18
Italy 13 39
SANY
Ethiopia 56 84
America 4 8
Swiss Electric
Cyprus 10 20
Thailand 3 9
Iran 20 40
Ming Yang India 7 10.5
Envision
Chile 5 10.5
Denmark 1 3.6
Dong Fang Finland 3 4.5
Total 341 692.35
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2.34 14.5 28.75 11.05 213.06 430.45 692.35
2.34 16.84 45.59 56.64 269.7 700.15 1392.5
0
Newly/MW
Total/MW
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
Fig. 7 Chinese wind
turbine exports during
2007-2013
33
Source: CWEA
Source: CWEA
Table 8 The exports of Chinese wind turbine manufacturers by the end of 2013
No. Manufactruers
Number of
Turbines
Capacity/MW
1 Goldwind 355 630
2 Sinovel 162 345
3 SANY 91 154
4 Swiss Electric 33 69
5 Ming Yang 41 61.5
6 CCWE 17 61.2
7 Envision 6 14.1
8 AVIC Huide 10 10
9 United Power 6 9
Table 9 The distribution of Chinese wind turbines in overseas markets before 2014
No.
Overseas
Markets
Number of
Turbines
Capacity/MW
1 America 186 335.75
2 Australia 86 185.00
3 Ethiopia 90 135.00
4 Italy 35 91.50
5 Turkey 55 77.25
6 Panama 22 55.00
7 South Africa 18 54.00
8 Bulgaria 34 51.50
9 Romania 20 50.00
10 Pakistan 33 49.50
11 Iran 23 45.50
12 Chile 32 48.84
13 Sweden 12 36.00
14 Spain 12 36.00
No. Manufactruers
Number of
Turbines
Capacity/MW
10 HEAG 8 8.4
11 SEWIND 5 6.25
12 XEMC-Wind 3 6
13 New United 4 6
14 Dong Fang 3 4.5
15 CSIC-Haizhuang 2 4
16 Apowerwind 1 2.05
17 Windey 1 1.5
Total 748 1392.5
No.
Overseas
Markets
Number of
Turbines
Capacity/MW
15 Brazil 23 34.50
16 Thailand 10 22.00
17 Cyprus 10 20.00
18 Ecuador 11 16.50
19 India 17 25.50
20 Finland 3 4.50
21 Cuba 6 4.50
22 England 3 3.75
23 Denmark 1 3.60
24 Bolivia 2 3.00
25 Kazakhstan 2 1.56
26 Belarus 1 1.50
27 Uzbekistan 1 0.75
Total 91412.89 100
By the end of 2013, two companies
Goldwind and Sinovel have the major share of
Chinese wind turbine exports. Goldwind shares
45.2% with 630 MW, and Sinovel has 24.8%
with 345 MW. They account for 70% of the total
exports.
34
The report presented here is
taken from the latest available data
from the GSE Bulletin 1st half of 2013
updated to 30 June 2103.
It considers all wind turbines
installed benefiting from incentives
IAFR (Green Certificates or Feed-In
Tariffs), does not count installations in
stand-alone which are estimated for at
least another 500 kW.
We have divided the power
classes in 6 primary ones, considering
the connection voltage (single phase
or three phase), division of Feed-
I TALI AN SMALL WI ND
In Tariffs, bureaucratic facilities for
installation and requirement to new
register.
The last classes from 60 kW to 250
kW have been added considering what
was the previous Feed-In Tariffs and
also considering the range over 200 kW
requested by international organizations
and not widespread in Italy.
The plants are only the installed.
The installed plants are already
working and are final, and can be
certainly considered active in any
calculation.
A further graph does also include
the number of installed plants. For
clarification plants could be composed
of multiple machines of lower power
and not necessarily from a single
machine
We also did a further breakdown
by region in order to highlight the
growth from the previous report.
We see in fact that Basilicata
has certainly had a big boom of
installations, especially in medium
high over 60kW surely due to regional
policies very favorable.
INSTALLED POWER DIVIDED BY CLASS OF POWER
kW
Total power 22.836 kW
REPORT 06/2013
35
NUMBER OF PLANTS DIVIDED BY CLASS OF POWER
Number of plants
Total plants 423
INSTALLED POWER DIVIDED BY REGION
kW
Regional Focus
36
ISSUE 1 March 2014
i n Ger many
1
1. Background
A major point in Germanys greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement plan
is the aim to reduce GHG emissions by 80 % to 95 % by 2050 compared
to the baseline year 1990. A step on the way is to increase the share
of renewable energies in the country's electricity supply to at least 80
% by 2050. The harnessing of wind power plays a decisive role here.
Wind already makes a considerable contribution to the energy supply in
Germany today. Of all the renewable energies, onshore wind energy use
has the highest potential for cost-efficient expansion in the short and
medium term.
In one of the latest publications of the German Federal Environment
Agency, Germany 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country, an almost
completely GHG-neutral society was modelled, considering significant
emission reductions in all GHG relevant sectors and per-capita emissions
of just 1 ton of CO2eq which means a 95 % reduction of GHG emissions
compared to 1990
3
. The study showed that future GHG-neutrality is
technically achievable, even in an industrial nation like Germany, and
without a reduction in the material living-standards.
Insa Ltkehus, German Federal Environment Agency
O
n
s
h
o
r
e
W
i
n
d
E
n
e
r
g
y
St udy on Pot ent i al
The results of a study
2
the German
Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt,
UBA) published in 2013 clearly showed
Germanys substantial onshore wind energy
potential. On the basis of the assumptions
made and the chosen turbine technology,
in principle around 13.8 % of Germany's
territory could be used for wind energy
harnessing. This area potential would
allow the installation of turbines with a
total capacity of around 1200 GW and an
annual power output of around 2900 TWh.
Even if the realizable potential is distinctly
lower - because on the one hand certain
considerations requiring case-by-case
decisions could not be reflected in a sensible
way, on the other hand economic framework
conditions or local acceptance levels were
not taken into account the study clearly
confirms onshore wind energys key role in
the renewable energy portfolio in Germany.
Regional Focus
37
ISSUE 1 March 2014
As a huge portion of the nationwide
GHG emissions arises from the energy
sector, the shift to 100 % renewable energy
supply is key to GHG-neutrality. The study
Energy Target 2050: 100 % Renewable
Electricity Supply which was released in
2010 by the Federal Environment Agency
already showed that an electricity supply
based on 100 % renewable energies is
feasible in 2050
4
. This study modeled
power supply based on a Regions Network
scenario
5
, which outlined nationalwide
renewable energy potentials while
considering technical and environmental
constraints. Since the Federal Environment
Agency disregards the use of bioenergy from
specially cultivated crops and harvesting of
wood for these purposes in order to minimize
risks for humans and biosphere associated
with the use of such biomass sources the
use of biomass was restricted to waste and
residues (only cascade use) in the scenario.
The German potential of hydropower and
geothermal power generation is also strictly
limited. For this reason the scenario assumed
that power in 2050 will be predominantly
generated by wind turbines and photovoltaic
installations. For onshore wind energy, the
Regions Network scenario presumed that
1 % of Germanys territory could be used for
wind energy harnessing. This area would allow
an installed capacity of 60 GW with an annual
output potential of 180 TWh. This was a very
conservative estimate which can be understood
as an approximation to the lower limit of the
technical-ecological potential of wind energy.
In order to get a clearer picture of onshore
wind energy potential and the importance it
can play in facilitating Germany's energy shift,
the Federal Environment Agency decided to
do detailed research on this subject for future
scenarios. Here we present the results of a
study on onshore wind energy potential which
was published in 2013.
2. Research and Assumptions
Strategy of Potential
Determination
Independent of economical considerations and already existing
wind farms, the aim of the study was to show the total potential for wind
power harnessing in Germany once several technical and ecological
aspects are taken into account. However, the approach of a GIS-based
analysis could not reflect certain considerations requiring case-by-
case decisions in a sensible way. The technical-ecological potential
of the onshore generation of wind energy, which must above all also
take aspects of special protected species conservation into account, is
therefore considerably lower than the potential determined within the
scope of the study.
There were two steps in determing the national onshore wind
energy potential. At first an area potential was determinend by defining
non-usable open country and forested areas and excluding these from the
calculation with the aid of geodata that was as detailed as possible. The
second step was modelling the capacity and output potential on the basis
of state-of-the-art reference turbines and meteorological data (see Figure
1). The modelling and calculations were carried out by the Fraunhofer
Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES).
The most detailed digital data on national area usage available
was the basic digital landscape model (Basic DLM). Its use allowed the
inclusion of splinter settlements and individual buildings located outside
settlements. In addition, nationwide data records on conservation areas
and areas dedicated to the national system of interlinked biotopes as well
Regional Focus
38
ISSUE 1 March 2014
as forest function maps of the federal states
were taken into account. For each type of area
usage it was defined if it allows wind power
harnessing or not. Additionally prescribed
distances, like e.g. 100 metres for national
highways, and precautionary distances to
sensitive areas, like e.g. 200 metres to nature
conservation areas or special protected areas
according to the EU birds directive, were
taken into account and excluded from the
area potential. Areas with a slope
of more than 30 degrees were
also excluded on the basis of the
digital terrain model (DGM 25). The
assumptions made with regard to
areas to be excluded and distances
for protection reasons are shown
in Table 1 in detail. Because of the
GIS-based approach of the study,
it was not possible to take aspects
into account which require case-by-
case decisions, like e.g. protection
of special protected species
beside protected areas or radar
installations. Any interpretation of
the study results has to take this
into account.
A special approach was chosen
to determine the requisite distances
to housing. These distances were
calculated based on the noise
emissions of the reference turbines
chosen and the limits defined in the
German law regulating permissible
noise pollution levels. By way of
example, two different turbine
configurations were considered.
The resultant minimum distances
were subsequently applied across
the board, although independent
of the configuration of the turbines
installed. As the reference turbines
had been chosen because of
their low noise emissions, and
additionally lower noise emission
levels during night-time operation were assumed, the resultant distances
to housing were comparatively short. For example, in low-noise mode of
operation, the reference turbines already comply with the representive
night-time emission limit of 40 dB(A) in housing areas
6
if the distance
from this housing is as little as 600 metres. Corresponding buffer
zones were applied to all types of usage that require night-time turbine
operation in low-noise mode due to noise pollution concerns.
The nationwide area potential resulted from the superposition of all
excluded areas and additional requisite buffer zones to sensitive areas.
Regional Focus
39
ISSUE 1 March 2014
Therein areas were included where night-time
operation in low-noise mode must be envisaged
for reasons of noise pollution prevention. The
nationwide wind energy capacity and output
potential was determined on this area potential
with the aid of the reference turbines and the
meteorological data.
Two different reference turbines were
chosen for the modelling in order to assume
the development of potential sites that would
make sense within the scope of the current
framework conditions. A turbine designed
for strong winds with a hub height of 100
metres, a rotor diameter of 104 metres and a
rated capacity of 3,4 MW was assumed as of
a mean wind speed of 7,5 m/s at a height of
140 metres. At lower wind speeds, a turbine
with a larger hub height of 140 metres and
rotor diameter of 114 metres but lower rated
capacity of 3,2 MW was used.
The modelling of the output potential was
based on the German National Meteorological
Service's COSMO-DE model
7
analysis data,
which was calibrated in a separate research
project with long-term reanalysis data from
the "ERA interim" project carried out by
the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This allowed
a combination of the advantages of both
weather models high level of accuracy in the
illustration of wind speeds at high altitudes on
the one hand as well as illustration
of climate variability through long-
term data record series on the other.
As a first step to model the
capacity and output potential a grid
map with the potentially achievable
full load hours for each grid point
was produced and used to decide
the optimum-output placement
of the reference turbines. On each
potential area, the first reference
turbine was placed at the grid point
with the highest number of full load
hours. Subsequently, all grid points within a radial minimum distance of
four times the rotor diameter that was assumed as requisite minimum
distance between the turbines were excluded. These steps were repeated
until the area was completely covered. Afterwards the capacity and
output potential was calculated from the information about installed
capacity and potential output for the turbines when placed at this
particular grid point. Finally, the results were adjusted by reducing the
output potential by 10 % to account for aerodynamic losses and another
3 % for non-availability.
3. Findings - Germanys
Onshore Wind Energy Potential
On the basis of the assumptions made and the selected turbine
types, the study concludes that in principle 49,361 km, or 13,8 % of
the country's territory, are suitable for wind energy use (see Table 2).
This area potential would allow the installation of turbines with a total
capacity of 1188 GW and an annual power output of around 2898
TWh.
As expected because of flat rural regions, the biggest potential is
in the northern German federal states, although a major potential was
also calculated for the central and southern parts of Germany. However
significant differences were noted in the average full load hours of the
reference turbines. The result of the modelling is a national average
amounting to 2440 full load hours. Whilst with 2621 and 2540 full
load hours respectively, the average capacity of wind energy plants in
northern and central Germany is above average, only 2108 full load
hours are achieved in the south. However, this is still considerably higher
than the median capacity utilisation of 1700 full load hours over the past
five years in Germany.
Regional Focus
40
ISSUE 1 March 2014
Two sensitivity analyses were carried out
for better assessment of the results. The first
focused on the level of impact the assumption
of a certain minimum capacity utilisation of
wind energy plants has on the capacity and
output potential. As it was assumed that wind
conditions would be adequate on sites where
turbines designed for strong winds had been
positioned, it only took sites where low wind
systems were positioned into account. At a
minimum capacity utilisation of 1600 full
load hours for weak wind turbines, only a very
marginal proportion of sites is excluded (see
Table 3). At a minimum capacity utilisation
of 2200 full load hours, on the other hand,
a significant proportion of the potential
evaporates. Once at least 2800 full load hours
are assumed, the majority of sites across all
federal states are excluded. There are then
hardly any usable sites left in the southern
federal states.
As settlement areas and requisite
protective distances have the biggest influence
on area potential, the second
sensitivity analysis looked at the
impact of the distance to housing
on the area potential. It showed
that even a 200 m increase of the
minimum distance to residential
areas (to 800 m) decreases the area
potential by a third (see Table 4).
Doubling the distance to
1200 m reduces the determined
area potential by 75 %. At a
distance of 2000 m, all that
remains is 0,4 % of Germany's
territory. Additionally it has to be
taken into account that the study
does not reflect any considerations
that would require case-by-case
decisions in the event of practical
application, and that the realizable
potential must be assumed to be
considerably lower.
4. Classification of the Study
Results
Whitin the scope of the study a high potential for onshore wind
energy use in Germany was determined. Nevertheless any interpretation
of the results must consider the fact that various aspects that would
require case-by-case decisions in the event of practical application
(above all the protection of special protected species but also e.g. radar
installations) could not be reflected within the scope of the study in a
sensible way. The technical-ecological potential therefore is considerably
lower than the determined potential. This has to be mentioned when
using the study results in further modelling and scenarios.
It is also important to remember that it was not the study's objective
to determine a realizable onshore wind energy potential. Relevant impact
factors which were not taken into account but can in practice hinder
the realisation of wind energy projects are, for example, the economic
framework conditions in individual cases, or the acceptance level
amongst the local population. The realizable potential is therefore only a
small proportion of the determined potential.
Furthermore, the results of the study on wind energy potential also
Regional Focus
41
ISSUE 1 March 2014
are determined to a considerable degree by
the quality of the underlying database and the
assumptions made. For example, the high area
and capacity potential is strongly influenced
by the chosen reference turbine technology.
Because on the one hand the development of
inland sites is possible due to high hub heights
and large rotor diameters of the reference
turbines, on the other hand this technology
allows due to low noise emissions, compliance
with the requirements for the prevention of
noise pollution near housing. If longer distances
were planned, e.g. for acceptance reasons, this
would also result in a distinctly lower potential.
5. Conclusions
The results of the study clearly showed
that the potential of onshore wind energy was
underestimated so far and confirm its key role of wind energy in the
German renewable energies portfolio. There are sufficient sites which,
in combination with state-of-the-art wind turbines, promise even power
feed-in through maximum capacity utilisation. Large shares of possible
future increases of electricity consumption, for example as a result of use
in heating and transport sector, could be compensated. Consequently the
scenarios of the German Federal Environment Agency, like the modelling
in the study Germany 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country, assume
that most of German renewable power production will be generated by
onshore wind energy.
Considered at a national level it can also be generally stated that
there are sufficient areas available so that the development of sites that
are as little conflict-provoking and as cost-efficient as possible should
be considered first of all for a future expansion of onshore wind energy
production. Regardless of the study results, substantial space for wind
energy can possibly only be created in individual planning spaces if
the criteria for the designation as a wind harvesting area are adapted
accordingly. To what extent the existing onshore wind energy potential
can ultimately be exploited is a matter of social and political decisions,
and also spatial planning considerations at various levels.
This contribution is based on the similar article Onshore Wind Energy Potential in Germany - current study by the Federal
Environment Agency on the nationwide area and output potential published in DEWI Magazine No. 43 (2013), p. 23-28 and a
contribution for the WWEC 2014 which is not yet released.
Ltkehus I et al. (2013): Potenzial der Windenergie an Land. Studie zur Ermittlung des bundesweiten Flchen
und Leistungspotenzials der Windenergienutzung an Land. Federal Environment Agency. Download: http://www.
umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/378/publikationen/potenzial_der_windenergie.pdf
Benndorf R et al. (2013): Germany 2050 a greenhouse gas-neutral Country. German Federal Environment Agency.
Background paper, October 2013. Download short version: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/germany-2050-
a-greenhouse-gas-neutral-country (Long version will be published as soon as possible)
Klaus T et al. (2010): Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply. German Federal Environment Agency.
Download: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/publikation/add/3997-0.pdf
The Regions Network scenario is one of three archetypes which are used by the Federal Environment Agency to show
radically different scenarios of a future renewable energy based energy generation. A study based on a Local energy autarky
scenario was published in 2013, while the modelling of an International large scale scenario is still under progress.
In view of the requisite distances to housing, simplification measures had to be taken as the Basics-DLM does not
differentiate between the various types of building usage as detailed as the German law regulating permissible noise pollution
levels does. A night-time emission limit of 40 dB(A) was therefore assumed for all areas near housing, even though the TA Lrm
prescribes varying limits of, for example, 35 dB(A) for purely residential areas, 40 dB(A) for general residential areas and 45
dB(A) for village areas.
In contrast to the micro-scale models used at federal state level for potential determination, this meteorological data has a
comparatively rough horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. It can therefore illustrate local wind conditions, especially in mountainous
regions, only to a limited extent. However, the level of data accuracy is adequate for nationwide potential determination.
Illustrated is the overall output of strong and weak wind turbines; however, the criterion of minimum capacity utilisation
was only applied to sites with weak wind turbines as adequate wind conditions were assumed for sites with turbines designed
for strong winds.
R
e
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
Regional Focus
42
ISSUE 1 March 2014
By Khalid Benhamou, Sahara W
ind, M
orocco
M
a
x
i m
i z
i n
g
m
i n
e
r
a
l r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
o
u
t
p
u
t
s

u
s
i n
g
N
o
r
t
h
A
f
r
i c
a
s
T
r
a
d
e
W
i n
d
s
:
Moroccos wind capacity is expected to
reach 900 MW by mid 2014, representing a
significant increase over the 391 MW wind
power base of a year earlier. Moroccos
public electric and water utility, the ONEE,
has embarked on an Integrated Wind Energy
Program that aims at doubling this figure to 2
GW by the end of the decade. The expansion
of wind power makes good sense, especially
given the record 45% capacity factor that can
be attained due to the exceptional quality
of the Atlantic Trade Winds blowing over
the Saharan coastline. Meanwhile, domestic
power demand growth is averaging 7% per
year, and electricity consumption in the
region is likely to quadruple within 20 years.
To deliver the wind-generated electricity to
North Africa's urban centres, a High Voltage
Direct Current (HVDC) transmission line will
be needed. Within this context, the Sahara
Atlantic trade winds over the Sahara desert powering the Sahara Wind project.
T
h
e

S
a
h
a
r
a

W
i
n
d

P
r
o
j
e
c
t
Regional Focus
43
ISSUE 1 March 2014
Wind Projects 5 GW HVDC line, submitted to
multilateral funding institutions (1) in 2005,
aims to meet this objective and to also enable
surplus wind power fluxes to be exchanged
with Europe. This is likely to support additional
wind energy integration on both sides of the
Mediterreanean.
Through domestic content requirements,
ONEEs Integrated Wind Energy Program
(2) is helping to build an enhanced local
manufacturing base as part of the expansion of
wind energy. Additional benefits will be realized
from the countrys Renewable Energy Law 13-
09 (3), which enable wind-generated electricity
to be wheeled directly to industrial end-users
and should improve wind energy integration
into local grids. Besides the aforementioned
export prospect, the delivery of wind-electricity
directly to industrial end-users opens new
opportunities to match power generation with
demand. The most likely beneficiaries of this
law will be mine-processing industries, as they
represent the main electric loads in the Sahara
desert.
Processing
paleontological
footprints of the
trade winds in
North Africa
The origin of North Africa's Phosphates
deposits in relation to the wind goes back
a long way. Through wind friction over the
oceans surface, the trade winds shaped the
circular direction of the Atlantic Oceans currents for millions of years
(4). These surface currents pushed the remains of dead organisms and
organic debris toward the coast of North Africa. As the Atlas Mountains
formed a natural obstacle to these flows, these debris ended-up being
trapped, sedimenting over the ages. Their accumulation resulted in the
deposits of phosphates rock which amount to 75% of todays known
world reserves (5).
Used essentially in the production of fertilizer, their energy-intensive
processing into phosphoric acid provides an unprecedented opportunity
to take advantage of the trade winds. Considering the addition of over
100 million tons of fossil-fuel synthesized ammonia needed every year
in the production of upgraded fertlizer, developing sustainable ways to
generate them is a critical issue. The electro-chemical synergies derived
from the firming of the trade winds for the combined production of
phosphoric acid and ammonia in support of the local fertilizer industry
is likely to significantly improve resource efficiencies. As phosphates is a
critical non-substitutable resource and with global food security at stake,
the transformation of the world's most significant phosphate reserves
becomes a key element of global sustainability.
Essential in the phasing of the Sahara Wind project's HVDC line
and its operational balancing, the development of integrated industrial
applications based around the earths largest phosphates reserves is a
critical enabler of a broader renewable energy transition. In addition to
the processing of phosphate reserves, project proponents are looking
at the possibility of transforming Mauritanias large iron-ore deposits
of into purified irons and steel derivatives using similar wind-driven
electro-chemistry processes. Harnessing the wind to capture the
economic value of these resources through a bottom-up process provides
economic benefits that will help push the continued transition.
The Sahara Wind Project has initiated a number of regional
collaborative research activities aimed at reinforcing these objectives.
Africas first wind-hydrogen storage systems, deployed in Morocco and
Mauritanias University campuses, will open a variety of integrated wind-
powered applications. To support access to potable water on a regional
basis using chlorine generated through wind-electrolysis, a planning
Regional Focus
44
ISSUE 1 March 2014
grant for building a demonstration project at
the headquarters of Morocco's electric and
power utilities has been secured. Additionally,
a regional wind resource assessment network
deployed with the help of telecom operators in
both countries will facilitate the deployment
of integrated wind-energy driven industrial
applications (8). In the future, plans are to
partner with those industries that represent the
regions main electric loads, in order to build
an integrated energy system supporting the
Sahara Wind 5 GW HVDC Transmission Project.
Together, these initiatives represent multi-
generational global sustainable development
imperatives that will mobilize the regions
industries for some time.
While it has taken two decades to develop
a proper project concept around the integration
and phased deployment of the Sahara Wind
Project and its 5 GW HVDC transmission line,
the many other collaborative regional activities
around this project are sure to reinforce its
economic and environmental sustainability
objectives. By enhancing local access to the
trade winds, the Sahara Wind Project will not
only generate jobs and value where needed but
will also contribute to supporting cleaner and
more efficient processing of mineral resources.
In being economically sound, regionally
integrated and gradually deployed, the project
can serve as a model for a broader energy
transition not only within this region but also
beyond.
Telecom towers with MAESNET calibrated Anemometers pointed towards
the trade winds
Morocco Sahara Wind Phase I / 400-500 MW Tarfaya On-Grid Electricity in
a Liberalized Market Project submitted as a Joint World Bank-AfDB UNDP/GEF
PMS #3292. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) on Sahara Wind Project phased
implementation with Ministry of Energy and Moroccos Public Utilities (ONEE).
Terms of Reference established on the basis of a 5 GW HVDC line.
1000 MW MOROCCAN INTEGRATED WIND ENERGY PROJECT N SP 40 311
Office National de lElectricit et de lEau ONEE http://www.one.org.ma/FR/
doc/en.pdf
Loi 13-09 relative aux nergies renouvelables, promulge par Dahir N1-10-
16 du 26 Safar 1431 (11 fvrier 2010) publie au Bulletin Officiel n5822 du 1er
Rabii 1431 (18 mars 2010), Secretariat General du Gouvernement, Royaume du
Maroc.
Sahara Wind Project: The North Atlantic Trade Winds (Sahara Wind Inc.)
http://www.saharawind.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2
8&Itemid=45
U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2013 p.119
(minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2013/mcs2013.pdf)
United Nations Industrial Development Organization - Engineering Report
on the Perspectives of a Wind-Hydrogen Energy Pilot Project in Tarfaya,
Morocco Contract TF/INT/03/002/11-68
NATO SfP-982620 Sahara Trade Winds to Hydrogen: Applied Research
for Sustainable Energy Systems" multi-year Science for Peace Project. Project
carried out with 18 institutions from 6 countries. Lead country: Morocco.
Participating countries France, Germany, Mauritania, Morocco, United
States (USA), Turkey. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_91105.
htm?selectedLocale=en
Connecting Wind and Water - The Sahara Wind Project. Article on
Revolve-Magazine Feb 2012 (http://www.saharawind.com/documents/RE3_
SaharaWinds.pdf http://www.revolve-magazine.com/home/2012/03/25/
sahara-wind-project/ )
Reference
Regional Focus
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ISSUE 1 March 2014
Regional Focus
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ISSUE 1 March 2014

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