A PROJECT REPORT

ON
EQUITIES AND MOMENT OF SHARES



Submitted in the partial fulfillment for the award of the degree of
MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

BY
K.SRINIVAS
ROLL NO: 142309672027



Under the guidance of
Mr.SHYAM






ST.MARTINS INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS MANGEMENT
Dhullapally, Medchal.
(Affliated to osmania university)

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that this Project Report titled EQUITIES AND
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT submitted by me to the Department of Business
Management, O.U., Hyderabad, is a bonafide work undertaken by me and it is not
submitted to any other University or Institution for the award of any degree
diploma / certificate or published any time before.




Name of the Student
K.SRINIVAS

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

It plunge me in exhilaration in taking privilege in expressing our heart felt
gratitude to all those who helped, encouraged and foreseeing successful completion
of my project. Ecstasy to work under gregarious guidance of Mr. ATISH GUPTA,
to whom extremely in debited for her valuable and timely suggestions.

I convey my sincere thanks to Mr. SHYAM ST MARTINS INSTITUTE OF
BUSINESS MANGEMENT, dhulapally and all those who directly or indirectly
contributed their assistance in finishing out this project.







































NEED FOR THE STUDY:
The purpose of the study is to know the fluctuations in the share price of
sample companies.
The purpose of the study is to help the unknown investors for investing in
securities.
To update the portfolio reviewed and adjusted from time to time in tune
with market condition.
To analyse the risk and return on securities.
To test portfolio strategies before taking decisions.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The objectives of Equities and investment /portfolio management can be
categorised as follows:
To observe the rate of fluctuations of selected companies.
The amount of risk involved in the securities of the sample companies.
To make comparative study of risk and return of the sample companies.
To understand what Equity markets are.
To evaluate the investment prospects of the companies.
To suggest the investors to analyze the stock before investing into any
company stock.
To locating a stock which gives good returns with minimum risk.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The study covers all the information related to the Equity fund and the Portfolio
management it also covers the investor risk in the investment in various securities.
Identification of the investors objectives, constraints and preferences.
Strategies are to be developed and implemented in tune with investment
policy formulated.
To reduce the future risk in advance.
To earn maximum profit in the securities.
Review and monitoring of the performance of the portfolio.
Finally the evaluation of the portfolio.

METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY
Primary Data:
The data provided by the firm was been analyzes by using Markowitz model
determines an efficient asset of portfolio return i.e.,
1. Return
2. Standard deviation
3. Coefficient of correlation
Secondary Data:
The data that is used in this project is of secondary nature. The data is
to be collected from secondary sources such as various websites, journals,
newspapers, books, etc., the analysis used in this project has been done using
selective technical tools. In Equity market, risk is analyzed and trading decisions
are taken on basis of technical analysis. It is collecting share prices of selected
companies for a period of five years.

PERIOD OF THE STUDY:
The study of Equity value and portfolio management for a period of five
years (2003-2007).
LIMITATIONS:
The companies are selected on the basis of the performance
Expand or contract the size of the portfolio reflect the changes in investor
risk disposition.
The study is confined to only few Future Stocks.
The data for the study considered is of past 90 days, due to non availability
of data on Stock Futures

SOURCE :
NCE, The standards set by NSE in terms of market practices and technologies have
become industry benchmarks and are being emulated by other market participants.
NSE is more than a mere market facilitator. It's that force which is guiding the
industry towards new horizons and greater opportunities.

SOURCES OF FINAL INFORMATION
Market Data
Stock Exchange daily official list.
Directory of the stock exchange.
RBIs weekly statistical supplements.
News papers.
The reports and newsletter of investment brokerage and
counseling firm.

Company Data
Companys Annual Reports and prospectuses.
Stock Exchange official directory.
Newspapers, Brokerage firms and news columns.
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES:
The following statistical techniques were used for measuring the performance of
the companys funds.
1. Rate of Return (ROR)
N2-N1
ROR =
N1
Where, N1 is Close period at period1
N2 is Close period at period
2. Standard Deviation (SD)
[R-AVG(R)]
SD =
N
Where, R is rate of return
N is total number of months
3. Beta
n xy x * y
Beta =
n x
2
(x)
2


4. Alpha
Alpha = Avg (y) (beta*Avg (x))
5. Coefficient of Correlation
n xy x * y
Coefficient of Correlation =
[(n y
2
(y)
2
) (n x
2
(x)
2
)]

6. Coefficient of Correlation
Coefficient of determination = (Coefficient of Correlation)
2













INTRODUCTION TO INVESTMENT
Investment may be defined as an activity that commits funds in any financial form
in the present with an expectation of receiving additional return in the future. The
expectations bring with it a probability that the quantum of return may vary from a
minimum to a maximum. This possibility of variation in the actual return is known
as investment risk. Thus every investment involves a return and risk.

Investment is an activity that is undertaken by those who have savings.
Savings can be defined as the excess of income over expenditure. An investor
earns/expects to earn additional monetary value from the mode of investment that
could be in the form of financial assets.

The three important characteristics of any financial asset are:
Return-the potential return possible from an asset.
Risk-the variability in returns of the asset form the chances of its value going
down/up.
Liquidity-the ease with which an asset can be converted into cash.

Investors tend to look at these three characteristics while deciding on their
individual preference pattern of investments. Each financial asset will have a
certain level of each of these characteristics.


Investment avenues

There are a large number of investment avenues for savers in India. Some of
them are marketable and liquid, while others are non-marketable. Some of them
are highly risky while some others are almost risk less.
Investment avenues can be broadly categorized under the following heads:
Corporate securities
Equity shares.
Preference shares.
Debentures/Bonds.
Derivatives.
Others.

Corporate Securities
Joint stock companies in the private sector issue corporate securities. These include
equity shares, preference shares, and debentures. Equity shares have variable
dividend and hence belong to the high risk-high return category; preference shares
and debentures have fixed returns with lower risk.

The classification of corporate securities that can be chosen as investment avenues
can be depicted as shown below:





Equity
Shares
Bonds Derivatives Warrants Preference
shares



Equity shares

By investing in shares, investors basically buy the ownership right to the
company. When the company makes profits, shareholders receive their share of the
profits in the form of dividends. In addition, when company performs well and the
future expectation from the company is very high, the price of the companys
shares goes up in the market. This allows shareholders to sell shares at a profit,
leading to capital gains.
Investors can invest in shares either through primary market offerings or in
the secondary market.
The primary market has shown abnormal returns to investors who
subscribed for the public issue and were allotted shares.

Stock Exchange:
In a stock exchange a person who wishes to sell his security is called a
seller, and a person who is willing to buy the particular stock is called as the buyer.
The rate of stock depends on the simple law of demand and supply. If the demand
of shares of company x is greater than its supply then its price of its security
increases.
In Online Exchange the trading is done on a computer network. The sellers
and buyers log on to the network and propose their bids. The system is designed in
such ways that at any given instance, the buyers/sellers are bidding at the best
prices.

The transaction cycle for purchasing and selling shares online is depicted
below:

















PORTFOLIO
A portfolio is an appropriate mix of or collection of investments held by an
institution or a private individual. It is a collection of securities, since it is
rarely desirable to invest the entire funds of an individual or an institution in
a single security.
Portfolio analysis considers the determination of future risk and return
in holding various blends of individual securities.

Client

Member/
Broking
firm.







Stock Exchange

(BSE / NSE)

Member/
Broking
firm.



Client

Transaction Cycle

Portfolio expected return is a weighted average of the expected return of
individual securities but portfolio variance, in short contrast, can be
something less than a weighted average of security variances.
As a result an investor can sometimes reduce portfolio risk by adding
security with greater individual risk than any other security in the portfolio.
This is because risk depends greatly on the co-variance among return of
individual securities.
Since portfolios expected return is a weighted average of the expected return
of its securities, the contribution of each security to the portfolios expected
returns depends on its expected returns and its proportionate share of the
initial portfolios market value.

RISK
Risk is a concept that denotes a potential negative impact to an asset or some
characteristic of value that may arise from some present process or future event. In
everyday usage, risk is often used synonymously with the probability of a known
loss. Risk is uncertainty of the income / capital appreciation or loss of the both.
The total risk of an individual security comprises two components, the market
related risk called systematic risk also known as undiversifiable risk and the unique
risk of that particular security called unsystematic risk or diversifiable risk.
Types of risk
Systematic risk (market) Unsystematic risk (company risk)



PHASES OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Five phases can be identified in this process:
1. Security analysis
2. Portfolio analysis
3. Portfolio selection
4. Portfolio revision
5. Portfolio evaluation
SECURITY ANALYSIS
An examination and evaluation of the various factors affecting the value of
a security. Security Analysis stands for the proposition that a well-
disciplined investor can determine a rough value for a company from all of
its financial statements, make purchases when the market inevitably under-
Examples:
Interest rate risk
Market risk
Inflation risk
Demand
Government policy
International factors
Examples:
Labor troubles
Liquidity problems
Raw materials risks
Financial risks
Management problems

prices some of them, earn a satisfactory return, and never be in real danger
of permanent loss.
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Analysis phase of portfolio management consists of identifying the range of
possible portfolios that can be constituted from a given set of securities and
calculating their return and risk for further analysis.
PORTFOLIO SELECTION
The proper goal of portfolio construction is to generate a portfolio that
provides the highest returns at a given level of risk. A portfolio having this
characteristic is known as an efficient portfolio. The inputs from portfolio
analysis can be used to identify the set of efficient portfolios. From this set
of efficient portfolios, the optimal portfolio has to be selected for investment.
Harry Markowitz portfolio theory provides both the conceptual framework
and analytical tools for determining the optimal portfolio in a disciplined and
objective way.
PORTFOLIO REVISION
Having constructed the optimal portfolio, the investor has to constantly
monitor the portfolio to ensure that it continues to be optimal. Portfolio
revision is as important as portfolio analysis and selection.
PORTFOLIO EVALUATION
It is the process, which is concerned with assessing the performance of the
portfolio over a selected period of time in terms of returns and risk. This
involves quantitative measurement of actual return realized and the risk
born by the portfolio over the period of investment. It provides a feedback
mechanism for improving the entire portfolio management process.










. Indiabulls Group is one of Indias top business houses with businesses spread
over Real Estate, Infrastructure, Financial Services, Securities, Retail, Multiplex
and Power sectors. The group companies are listed on important Indian and
Overseas markets. Indiabulls has been conferred the status of a Business
Superbrand by The Brand Council, Superbrands India
To be the largest and most profitable financial
services organization in Indian retail market and become one stop shop for all non
banking financial products and services for the retail customers.

Rapidly increase the number of client relationships by providing a broad array of
product offering to emerge as a clear market leader.

Indiabulls Group has five separately listed companies with
subsidiaries which contributed in enhancing scope and profile of the business.


Top Indiabulls Financial Services Limited

Indiabulls Financial Services Limited was incorporated on January 10, 2000 as M/s
Orbis Infotech Private Limited at New Delhi under the Companies Act, 1956. The
name of company was changed to M/s. Indiabulls Financial Services Private
Limited on March 16, 2001. In the year 2004, Indiabulls came up with it own
public issue & became a public limited company on February 27, 2004. The name
of company was changed to M/s. Indiabulls Financial Services Limited.

The company was promoted by three engineers from IIT Delhi, and has attracted
more than Rs.700 million as investments from venture capital, private equity and
institutional investors and has developed significant relationships with large
commercial banks such as Citibank, HDFC Bank, Union Bank, ICICI Bank, ABN
Amro Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and IL&FS.



Mr. Rajiv Rattan
Co-Founder &
Vice Chairman
(Indiabulls Group)
Mr. Sameer Gelhaut
Chairman
(Indiabulls Group)
Mr. Saurabh K Mittal
Director
(Indiabulls Group)

The company headquarters are co-located in Mumbai and Delhi, allowing it to
access the two most important regions for Indian financial markets, The marketing
and sales efforts are headquartered out of Mumbai, with a regional headquarter in
Delhi. Back office, risk management, internal finances etc. are headquartered out
of Delhi/NCR allowing the company to scale these processes efficiently for the
nationwide network.

Company is listed on:
National Stock Exchange
Bombay Stock Exchange
Luxemburg Stock Exchange
Market capitalization:
Over 7 Billion USD
Net worth
Over 2.5 Billion USD
Highest Ratings from CRISIL CRISIL is India's leading ratings, research, risk
and policy advisory company


Broad array of product offering
1. Consumer Finance
2. Housing Finance
3. Commercial Loans
4. Life Insurance
5. Asset Management
6. Advisory Services
Top Strategic Updates
Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) completed the de-merger of
its real estate business into a separate publicly traded company, (IBREL)
unlocked over Rs. 10000 crore of shareholder wealth.
De-merger: De-merger of Indiabulls Securities Limited from Indiabulls
Financial Services Limited. Each shareholder of Indiabulls Financial
Services Limited received a share of Indiabulls Securities Limited.
SARFAESI Act Notification: Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited, a
wholly owned subsidiary of Indiabulls Financial Services Limited has been
notified as a Financial Institution for the purpose of SARFAESI Act, 2002.
This notification is being effectively used by the company to yield positive
results in speedy recoveries of delinquent mortgage loans.
New Business Venture Updates:
Life Insurance Venture: Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) has
entered into an MOU with Sogecap, the insurance arm of Societe Generale
(SocGen) for its upcoming life insurance joint venture. Sogecap will invest
Rs 150 crore to subscribe to 26% of the paid up capital in the joint venture.
Commodities Exchange (ICEX) : a screen based on-line derivatives
exchange for commodities and has established a reliable, time tested, and a
transparent trading platform. It is also in the process of putting in place
robust assaying and warehousing facilities in order to facilitate deliveries.
ICEX is promoted by Indiabulls Financial Services and MMTC.
Asset Management Business: Indiabulls Financial Services Limited
proposes to set up an asset management company to manage mutual funds
and has applied to SEBI for its approval and the same is awaited.

Indiabulls Real Estate Limited

Indiabulls stepped into the real estate market as Indiabulls Real Estate Limited
(IREL) in 2005. A joint venture between Indiabulls and a US based investment
major Farallon Capital Management LLC resulted in bringing FDI (Foreign Direct
Investment) for the first time in the Indian real estate market. Another joint venture
amongst Indiabulls and DLF, Kenneth Builders and Developers (KBD), has
brought up projects for development of residential apartments.
Our Projects:

Indiabulls is currently evaluating many large-scale projects worth several hundred
million dollars.
1. One Indiabulls Centre
2. Indiabulls Central Park
3. Central Park Madurai
4. Central Park Hyderabad
5. Castlewood
6. Indiabulls Finance Center
7. HighStreet Vadodara
8. Central Park Vadodara
9. Indiabulls Greens
10. Centrum Park
11. Indiabulls Riverside
12. Gurgoan Housing

13. Sonepat Township
14. Chennai Township
15. Indiabulls Greens Panvel
16. Mumbai Township
17. Nashik SEZ
18. Raigarh SEZ
19. Goa Luxury Resort


Indiabulls Power Limited

Indiabulls Power Limited was established in 2007 to capitalize on emerging
opportunities in the Indian power sector. It develops and intends to operate and
maintain power projects in India. Indiabulls is currently developing five thermal
power projects with an aggregate capacity of approximately 6600 MW. These
projects include:
- Amravati Phase-I (1320 MW)
- Amravati Phase-II (1320 MW)
- Nasik (1335 MW) in Maharashtra
- Bhaiyathan Thermal Power Project (1320 MW)
- Chhattisgarh Power Project (1320 MW)
In addition to the above Indiabulls is also developing four medium size Hydro
Power Projects in Arunachal Pradesh aggregating to 167 MW.



Indiabulls Securities Limited
Indiabulls Securities Limited is the jewel in the crown of Indiabulls group.

Indiabulls Securities Limited is Indias leading capital markets company with All-
India presence and an extensive client base. Indiabulls Securities is the first and
only brokerage house in India to be assigned the highest rating BQ 1 by CRISIL.
Indiabulls Securities Limited is listed on NSE, BSE & Luxembourg stock
exchange.

Indiabulls also provide commodity brokerage services under Indiabulls
Commodities Limited (ICL). It deals in research work and formation of reports on
agri-commodites and metals. ICL has one of the largest retail branch networks in
the country.



Products offered Equities and Derivatives
Offers purchase and sale of securities (stock, bonds, debentures etc.)
Broker assisted trade execution
Automated online investing
Access to all IPO's
Equity Analysis
Helps to build ideal portfolio
Satisfies need by rating stocks based on facts-based measures
Free of cost for all securities clients
Depository Services
Depository participant with NSDL and CDSL
Helps in trading and settlement of dematerialized shares
Performs clearing services for all securities transactions
Offers platform to execute trade and settle transactions
Top Sales Team Structure
Sales force in Indiabulls Securities Limited is divided into two groups. i.e. Online
& Offline
Mentioned below are the names of EVP's managing respective regions
EVP's Name
(Online)
Vijay Babbar Amiteshwar Chaudhay
Prasenjeet
Mukherjee
Region
Managing NCR and UP,
Punjab,Haryana,Uttranchal,
Rajasthan and Gujarat
Managing Mahrashtra
and Goa, Kerala,
Karnataka, Andhra
Pradesh
and Tamil Nadu
Managing West
Bengal,
Orissa, Bihar and
Jharkhand

EVP's Name
(Offline)
Nirdosh Gaur
Hemanshu
Kamdar
Anirban
Bhattacharya
Manoj
Srivastava
Region
Managing NCR
and Haryana
, Punjab, Uttar
Pradesh and
Madhya
Pradesh
Managing Bengal,
Andhra Pradesh
,Tamil Nadu,
Karnataka and part
of Mumbai and
Gujarat
Managing Mumbai,
Pune and other
surrounding
regions
Managing
Rajasthan,
part of
Gujarat
and Mumbai

Top Customer Care Department Providing solution to the queries of customers
as well as branches from a centralized location based out of gurgaon
Clients
Client Helpline Number 0124 - 4572444

39407777
(Local dialing from 25 cities)
Securities client can E-mail at helpdesk@indiabulls.com

Available from 25 cities: Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Bhopal, Chandigarh, Chennai,
Coimbatore, Delhi, Ernakulam, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Jalandhar, Kolkata, Kozhikode,
Ludhiana, Lucknow, Mumbai, Mangalore, Nashik,Pune, Salem, Surat, Vadodra,
Vadodra - Alkapuri, Vishakhapatnam.

Branch
Branch Helpline Number 0124-3989444
Queries E-mail at
Funds related funds@indiabulls.com
Reallocation related reallocate@indiabulls.com
Documents related documents@indiabulls.com
Other queries except above help@indiabulls.com


Milestones Achieved
Developed one of the first internet trading platforms in India
Amongst the first to develop in-house real-time CTCL (computer to
computer link) with NSE
Introduction of integrated accounts with automatic gateways to client bank
accounts
Development of products such as Power Indiabulls for high volume traders
Indiabulls Signature Account for self-directed investors
Indiabulls Group Professional Network for information and trading service



Top Corporate Information
Registered Office
F-60, Malhotra Building, 2nd Floor,
Connaught Place, NEW DELHI - 110001, INDIA
Website: www.indiabulls.com
Corporate Offices
S.P.Centre, C Wing, 41/44, Minoo Desai
Road, Near Radio Club, Colaba,
MUMBAI 400005
Head Office
"Indiabulls House"
448-451, Udyog Vihar, Phase V
GURGOAN 122001

I










Introduction

Indiabulls is Indias leading Financial, Real Estate and Power Company with a
wide presence throughout India. They ensure convenience and reliability in all
their products and services. Indiabulls has over 640 branches all over India. The
customers of Indiabulls are more than 4,50,000 which covers from a wide range of
financial services and products from securities, derivatives trading, depositary
services, research & advisory services, consumer secured & unsecured credit, loan
against shares and mortgage & housing finance. The company employs around
4000 Relationship managers who help the clients to satisfy their customized
financial goals. Indiabulls entered the Real Estate business in the year 2005 with its
group of companies. Large scale projects worth several hundred million dollars are
evaluated by them.
Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd is listed on the National Stock Exchange
(NSE), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and Luxembourg Stock Exchange. The
market capitalization of Indiabulls is around USD 2500 million (29
th
December,
2006). Consolidated net worth of the group is around USD 700 million. Indiabulls
and its group companies have attracted USD 500 million of equity capital in
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) since March 2000. Some of the large shareholders
of Indiabulls are the largest financial institutions of the world such as Fidelity
Funds, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Farallon Capital.




Indiabulls Group is one of Indias top business houses with businesses spread over
Real Estate, Infrastructure, Financial Services, Securities, Retail, Multiplex and
Power sectors. The group companies are listed on important Indian and Overseas
markets. Indiabulls has been conferred the status of a Business Superbrand by
The Brand Council, Superbrands India.
To be the largest and most profitable financial
services organization in Indian retail market and become one stop shop for all non
banking financial products and services for the retail customers.

To become the preferred long term financial partner to a wide base of customers
whilst optimizing stake holders value



Rapidly increase the number of client relationships by providing a broad array of
product offering to emerge as a clear market leader.
To establish a base of 1 million satisfied customers by 2010. We will create this by
being a responsible and trustworthy partner

Corporate action: An Approach to Business that reflects Responsibility,
Transparency and Ethical Behavior. Respect for Employees, Clients & Stakeholder
groups






Indiabulls Financial Services Limited was accorded the highest rating P1+ for short
term debt and the highest rating of AAA (SO) by CRISIL for loan receivables
securitisation while Indiabulls Securities Limited is the only broker in India to be
assigned CRISILs highest broker quality grading of BQ1.

Highest Ratings from CRISIL CRISIL is India's leading ratings, research, risk
and policy advisory company




In December 2007, Indiabulls acquired Pyramid Retail including Piramyd
Megastores and Trumart, their chain of lifestyle and convenience outlets

Indiabulls growth has been nothing short of stupendous. In less than eight years
since the company was first registered, it has grown from just five employees to
21,00 and from one office to 600 across the country


The Indiabulls Financial Services stock is the best performing stock in the MSCI
Index the global benchmark for equity investments.

A person who bought Indiabulls shares in the IPO at Rs. 19 (US$ 0.48) in
September 2004 has been rewarded almost 100 times in three and a half years a
feat unparalleled in the history of Indian capital markets

Indiabulls Real Estate Limited partnered Farallon Capital Management LLC of the
US to bring the first Foreign Direct Investment into real estate.










Products offered Equities and Derivatives
Offers purchase and sale of securities (stock, bonds, debentures etc.)
Broker assisted trade execution
Automated online investing
Access to all IPO's
Equity Analysis
Helps to build ideal portfolio
Satisfies need by rating stocks based on facts-based measures
Free of cost for all securities clients
Depository Services
Depository participant with NSDL and CDSL
Helps in trading and settlement of dematerialized shares
Performs clearing services for all securities transactions
Offers platform to execute trade and settle transactions
Milestones Achieved
Developed one of the first internet trading platforms in India
Amongst the first to develop in-house real-time CTCL (computer to
computer link) with NSE
Introduction of integrated accounts with automatic gateways to client bank
accounts
Development of products such as Power Indiabulls for high volume traders
Indiabulls Signature Account for self-directed investors
Indiabulls Group Professional Network for information and trading service


Companies History in India

In 1999, three IIT-Delhi alumni Sameer Gehlaut, Rajiv Rattan and Saurabh Mittal
acquired Orbis,a Delhi based stock broking company. Young entrepreneur Sameer
Gehlaut established Indiabulls in 2000, after acquiring orbis Securities, a stock
brokerage company in Delhi. The group started its operations from a small office
near Hauz Khas bus terminal in Delhi.The office had a tin roof and two computers.
The idea of leveraging technology for trading stocks led to the creation of
Indiabulls Incorporated on 10th January 2000, it was converted into a public
limited company on 27th February 2004.

Its original idea of leveraging technology bore fruit when Indiabulls was accorded
permission to conduct online trading on Indian stock exchanges.

The company had achieved the distinction of becoming only the second brokerage
firm in India to be granted this consent. The challenges facing it were immense
not least of all the mind set of investors who were called to make the big leap from
traditional stock trading to a completely online interface. Having overcome this
resistance, the company later expanded its service portfolio to include equity,
F&O, wholesale debt, mutual fund distribution and equity research.

In 2003/04, Indiabulls ventured into insurance distribution and commodity trading.
It successfully floated its IPO in September 2004 and in the same year entered the
consumer finance segment. Real estate, the new sunrise industry, was the next
frontier for Indiabulls. In 2004/05, it entered this sector. But it wasnt just real
estate that was booming.

Opportunities were opening up in retail and infrastructure as well. To cement its
position in the Indian business and industry firmament,

Indiabulls acquired Pyramid Retail In 2007 and marked its presence in the power
sector by launching Indiabulls Power


Brand Values


Indiabulls is amongst the largest non-banking financial services companies in India
and enjoys strong brand recognition and customer acceptance.

The company attributes its dominant position in the brokerage industry to the
preferential status it enjoys with investors Coupled with its forays into various
segments; the Group believes that the bulk of its brand story is yet to be written.

Indeed, when a case study on Indias youngest brands which have had a profound
impact on the economy is crafted, Indiabulls will feature prominently in it.


THINGS
Recent Developments

Several developments across its group companies have propelled Indiabulls
forward and are expected to continue to power the rise of this conglomerate.

Indiabulls Financial Services Limited has recently signed a joint venture agreement
with Sogecap, the insurance arm of Societe Generale (SocGen) for its upcoming
life insurance venture.

At the same time it has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with MMTC,
the largest commodity trading house in India, to establish a Commodities
Exchange with 26% Ownership held by MMTC.

On the asset management front, the company has received formal approval from
SEBI and is expected to shortly launch its first NFO.








The Board of Directors

Following is the list of our Board Members as on November 4, 2009
.

Mr. Sameer Gehlaut

Chairman & CEO


Gagan Banga

Executive Director


Rajiv Rattan

CEO


Shamsher Singh

Director


Aishwarya Katoch

Director


Karan Singh Director


Prem Prakash Mird

Director


Saurabh K Mittal

Executive Director


Amit Jain

Company Secretary






Promoters for Indiabulls



Mr. Rajiv Rattan
Co-Founder &
Vice Chairman
(Indiabulls Group)
Mr. Sameer Gelhaut
Chairman
(Indiabulls Group)
Mr. Saurabh K Mittal
Director
(Indiabulls Group)


Sameer Gehlaut, Rajiv Rattan and Saurabh Mittal
Are the promoters of Indiabulls Financial Services Limited. While
Sameer Gehlaut will have a 23.0% stake in the company post the IPO
Rajiv Rattan and Saurabh Mittal will have a post issue holding of 11.5% and
10.1% respectively.
All the three promoters of the company are engineering graduates while Saurabh
Mittal is a management graduate as well.


Sector


Since Indiabulls derives most of its revenues from the brokerage business, its
fortunes are very much dependent on the Performance of the capital markets, i.e.
debt, derivative and equity markets.

The Indian equity markets have grown from strength to strength in the last decade
with combined daily volumes of all segments on the BSE and the NSE touching Rs
232 bn in April 2004, from Rs 5 bn in FY96.

Total shareholders in the country are over 20 m (2% of population) and this is the
third largest after the US and Japan, in absolute terms.

However, if one were to compare the percentage of all households in India that are
invested in the stock markets, it is only about 1.9% as compared to an estimated
52%(including indirect ownership by way of mutual funds) of all households in the
US. This highlights the long-term potential for the sector. to apply

The Team:

Indiabulls Securities Ltd, main strength lies in its formidable team. This team
comprising highly qualified and experienced personnel has been responsible for
the overall management of the company and has provided direction in diverse
areas of business strategy, operating management, regulatory reporting, human
resources development and product development.




















Indiabulls Group has five separately listed companies with
subsidiaries which contributed in enhancing scope and profile of the business.












Indiabulls Group entities in India
Indiabulls Capital Services Ltd.
Indiabulls Commodities Pvt. Ltd.
Indiabulls Credit Services Ltd.
Indiabulls Finance Co. Pvt. Ltd
Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd.
Indiabulls Insurance Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Indiabulls Resources Ltd.
Indiabulls Securities Ltd.
Indiabulls Power Ltd.

Indiabulls Financial Services Limited

Indiabulls Financial Services Limited was incorporated on January 10, 2000 as M/s
Orbis Infotech Private Limited at New Delhi under the Companies Act, 1956. The
name of company was changed to M/s. Indiabulls Financial Services Private
Limited on March 16, 2001. In the year 2004, Indiabulls came up with it own
public issue & became a public limited company on February 27, 2004. The name
of company was changed to M/s. Indiabulls Financial Services Limited.

The company was promoted by three engineers from IIT Delhi, and has attracted
more than Rs.700 million as investments from venture capital, private equity and
institutional investors and has developed significant relationships with large
commercial banks such as Citibank, HDFC Bank, Union Bank, ICICI Bank, ABN
Amro Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and IL&FS.




Company is listed on:
National Stock Exchange
Bombay Stock Exchange
Luxemburg Stock Exchange
Market capitalization:
Over 7 Billion USD
Net worth
Over 2.5 Billion USD
Broad array of product offering
7. Consumer Finance
8. Housing Finance
9. Commercial Loans
10. Life Insurance
11. Asset Management
12. Advisory Services
Strategic Updates
Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) completed the de-merger of
its real estate business into a separate publicly traded company, (IBREL)
unlocked over Rs. 10000 crore of shareholder wealth.
De-merger: De-merger of Indiabulls Securities Limited from Indiabulls
Financial Services Limited. Each shareholder of Indiabulls Financial
Services Limited received a share of Indiabulls Securities Limited.
SARFAESI Act Notification: Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited, a
wholly owned subsidiary of Indiabulls Financial Services Limited has been
notified as a Financial Institution for the purpose of SARFAESI Act, 2002.
This notification is being effectively used by the company to yield positive
results in speedy recoveries of delinquent mortgage loans.

New Business Venture Updates:
Life Insurance Venture: Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) has
entered into an MOU with Sogecap, the insurance arm of Societe Generale
(SocGen) for its upcoming life insurance joint venture. Sogecap will invest
Rs 150 crore to subscribe to 26% of the paid up capital in the joint venture.
Commodities Exchange (ICEX) : a screen based on-line derivatives
exchange for commodities and has established a reliable, time tested, and a
transparent trading platform. It is also in the process of putting in place
robust assaying and warehousing facilities in order to facilitate deliveries.
ICEX is promoted by Indiabulls Financial Services and MMTC.
Asset Management Business: Indiabulls Financial Services Limited
proposes to set up an asset management company to manage mutual funds
and has applied to SEBI for its approval and the same is awaited.

Indiabulls Real Estate Limited

Indiabulls stepped into the real estate market as Indiabulls Real Estate Limited
(IREL) in 2005. A joint venture between Indiabulls and a US based investment
major Farallon Capital Management LLC resulted in bringing FDI (Foreign Direct
Investment) for the first time in the Indian real estate market. Another joint venture
amongst Indiabulls and DLF, Kenneth Builders and Developers (KBD), has
brought up projects for development of residential apartments
Our Projects:

Indiabulls is currently evaluating many large-scale projects worth several hundred
million dollars.
20. One Indiabulls Centre
21. Indiabulls Central Park
22. Central Park Madurai
23. Central Park Hyderabad
24. Castlewood
25. Indiabulls Finance Center
26. HighStreet Vadodara
27. Central Park Vadodara
28. Indiabulls Greens
29. Centrum Park
30. Indiabulls Riverside
31. Gurgoan Housing
32. Sonepat Township
33. Chennai Township
34. Indiabulls Greens Panvel
35. Mumbai Township
36. Nashik SEZ
37. Raigarh SEZ
38. Goa Luxury Resort

Indiabulls Power Limited

Indiabulls Power Limited was established in 2007 to capitalize on emerging
opportunities in the Indian power sector. It develops and intends to operate and
maintain power projects in India. Indiabulls is currently developing five thermal
power projects with an aggregate capacity of approximately 6600 MW. These
projects include:
- Amravati Phase-I (1320 MW)
- Amravati Phase-II (1320 MW)
- Nasik (1335 MW) in Maharashtra
- Bhaiyathan Thermal Power Project (1320 MW)
- Chhattisgarh Power Project (1320 MW)
In addition to the above Indiabulls is also developing four medium size Hydro
Power Projects in Arunachal Pradesh aggregating to 167 MW.


Indiabulls Securities Limited
Indiabulls Securities Limited is the jewel in the crown of Indiabulls group.


Indiabulls Securities Limited is Indias leading capital markets company with All-
India presence and an extensive client base. Indiabulls Securities is the first and
only brokerage house in India to be assigned the highest rating BQ 1 by CRISIL.
Indiabulls Securities Limited is listed on NSE, BSE & Luxembourg stock
exchange.


Indiabulls also provide commodity brokerage services under Indiabulls
Commodities Limited (ICL). It deals in research work and formation of reports on
agri-commodites and metals. ICL has one of the largest retail branch networks in
the country.


Products offered Equities and Derivatives
Offers purchase and sale of securities (stock, bonds, debentures etc.)
Broker assisted trade execution
Automated online investing
Access to all IPO's

Equity Analysis
Helps to build ideal portfolio
Satisfies need by rating stocks based on facts-based measures
Free of cost for all securities clients



Depository Services

Depository participant with NSDL and CDSL
Helps in trading and settlement of dematerialized shares
Performs clearing services for all securities transactions
Offers platform to execute trade and settle transactions


Milestones Achieved

Developed one of the first internet trading platforms in India
Amongst the first to develop in-house real-time CTCL (computer to
computer link) with NSE
Introduction of integrated accounts with automatic gateways to client bank
accounts
Development of products such as Power Indiabulls for high volume traders
Indiabulls Signature Account for self-directed investors
Indiabulls Group Professional Network for information and trading service





Growth of Indiabulls


Year 2000-01:
One of Indias first trading platforms was set up by Indiabulls Financial Services
Ltd. with the development of an in-house team.

Year 2001-03:
The service offered by Indiabulls was increased to include Equity, F&O,
Wholesale Debt, Mutual fund, IPO Financing/Distribution and Equity Research.

Year 2003-04:
In this particular year Indiabulls ventured into Distribution and Commodities
Trading business.

Year 2004-05:
This was one of the most important years in the history of Indiabulls. In this
year:
Indiabulls came out with its initial public offer (IPO) in September 2004.
Indiabulls started its Consumer Finance business.
Indiabulls entered the Indian Real Estate market and became the first
company to bring FDI in Indian Real Estate.
Indiabulls won bids for landmark properties in Mumbai.



Year 2005-06:
In this year the company acquired over 115 acres of land in Sonepat for residential
home site development. The world renowned investment banks like Merrill Lynch
and Goldman Sachs increased their shareholding in Indiabulls. It also became a
market leader in securities brokerage industry, with around 31% share in Online
Trading. The worlds largest hedge fund, Farallon Capital and its affiliates
committed Rs. 2000 million for Indiabulls subsidiaries Viz. Indiabulls Credit
Services Ltd. and Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. In the same year, the Steel
Tycoon Mr. L N Mittal promoted LNM India Internet venture Ltd. acquired 8.2%
stake in Indiabulls Credit Services Ltd.

Year 2006-07:
In this year, Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd. was included in the prestigious
Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI). Indiabulls Financial Services
Ltd. was benefited with the Farallon Capital agreeing to invest Rs. 6,440 million in
it. The company also received an in principle approval from Government of
India for development of multi product SEZ in the state of Maharashtra. Indiabulls
Financial Services Ltd acquired 100% of the equity share capital of Noble Realtors
Pvt. Ltd. Noble Realtors is a Company engaged in the business of construction and
development of real estate projects. Indiabulls Real Estate Business was demerged
to become a separate entity called Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. The Board of
Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd., Resolved to Amalgamate Indiabulls Credit
Services Ltd and demerge Indiabulls Securities Limited.
Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd.

Year 2008-09:
Several developments across its group companies have propelled indiabulls
forward and are expected to continue to power the rise of this conglomerate.
Indiabulls financial services limited has recently signed a joint venture agreement
with sogecap, the insurance arm of Societe Generale (SocGen) for its upcoming
life insurance venture.
At the same time it has also signed a Memorandum of understanding with MMTC.
On the asset management front, the company has received formal approval from
SEBI and is expected to shortly launch its first NFO.
Indiabulls enter in to Public issue for his Indiabulls power Ltd















Reasons to choose Indiabulls Securities Ltd:

The Indiabulls Financial Services stock is the best performing stock in the MSCI
Index the global benchmark for equity investments

A person who bought Indiabulls shares in the IPO at Rs. 19 (US$ 0.48) in
September 2004 has been rewarded almost 100 times in three and a half years a
feat unparalleled in the history of Indian capital markets

Indiabulls Real Estate Limited partnered Farallon Capital Management LLC of the
US to bring the first Foreign Direct Investment into real estate

Seven Reasons why investing with Indiabulls Securities Limited is
smarter
1) Customization: Formulates investment plans based on customer individual
requirements
2) Expertise: Brings within customer reach, about institutional expertise and
companies valuable understanding of the financial markets
3) One-stop shop: Caters to all customers investment needs under one roof.
4) Trust: Enjoys the pedigree of Indiabulls Securities Ltd and share its expertise
in financial services.
5) Personalized service: Helps customer through the entire investment process,
step by step, with innovative and efficient services.
6) Unbiased & Objective advice: We partner you in your investment process,
with our team of expert investment advisors






FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The intrinsic value of an equity share depends on a multitude of factors. The
earning of the company the growth rate and the risk exposure of the company has a
direct bearing on the price of the share. These factors in turn rely on the host of
other factors like economic environment in which they function, the industry they
belong to, and finally companies own performance. So basically the whole
fundamental analysis is divided into three main parts:-
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Company Analysis

Economic Analysis
The level of economic activity has an impact on investment in many ways. If the
economic grows rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth
and vice versa. When the level of economic activity is low, stock prices are low,
and when the level of economic activity is high, the stocks prices are high
reflecting the prosperous outlook for sales and profits of the firms. The analysis of
macroeconomic environment is essential to understand the behavior of the stock
prices. The commonly analyzed macroeconomic factors are as follows: -
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Savings and Investment
Inflation
Interest Rates
Budget
Tax Structure
Balance of Payment
Infrastructure Facilities
Monsoon and Agriculture
Considering all factors for economic analysis is not always feasible and also not
always required. Depending upon the type of research, some of the above factors
are considered for analysis. In this analysis, important factors like GDP, Inflation
and Interest rates are taken as indicators as these factors directly influence the
Indian Stock Index. After the individual analysis a comparative analysis is made to
draw the relationship between them. Later the influence of the above three factors
on Stock Market Index is analyzed.
Before stepping into the analysis of all factors together lets individually understand
the Factors taken for study.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP indicates the rate of growth of the economy. GDP represents the aggregate
value of the goods and services produced in the economy. GDP consists of
personal consumption expenditure, gross private domestic investment and
government expenditure on goods and services and net export of goods and
services. Growth is usually calculated in real terms, i.e. inflation-adjusted terms, in
order to net out the effect of inflation on the price of the goods and services
produced.
Quarterly GDP rate by March 2008 was 8.5% which continued to fall throughout
the year ending March 2009. This decline was mainly due to the effect of recession
in some sectors like IT, Tourism sector, Export sector, etc. which depended on
foreign countries for its earnings. The GDP rates were 7.8% in June, 7.5% in
September, 6.1% in December and 5.8% in March 09. When the economy,
comprising of different sectors, started to bounce back on its pace of production,
GDP rate started showing a slight rise from 6% in June to 8.6% in September. By
the end of December 2009, it again showed a fall to 6.5% mainly due to high
inflation rate. But an onset of 2010, improved GDP rate back to 8.6%.

The diagram below shows Annual GDP Growth Adjusted by Inflation:

I nflation Rate
In mainstream Economics, the word inflation refers to a general rise in prices
measured against a standard level of purchasing power. Previously the term was
used to refer to an increase in the money supply, which is now referred to as
expansionary monetary policy or monetary inflation. Inflation is measured by
comparing two sets of goods at two points in time, and computing the increase in
cost not reflected by an increase in quantity.
Monthly inflation rate is taken for indentifying the fluctuations. In each month of
the year 2008, inflation is showing a continuous rise and it follows until the end of
November 2008 at 10.45%. Before January it showed a slight dip during December
at 9.7% compared to last month. But in January it bounced back to 10.45% and
there after showed a low inflation rate for the next four months (Feb: 9.63%, Mar:
8.03%, Apr: 8.7%, May: 8.63%). Thereafter, inflation rate made a steep rise. By
the end of January 2010, it became 16.22%. A high rate of inflation is not desired
by any nation as it hampers the production and GDP growth of any economy.
During February and March 2010, inflation rate remained stagnant at 14.86% but
still being high.

The diagram below shows the Annual Change on Consumer Price Index since
2008:


I nterest Rate
Interest rate or the Bank rate affects the cost of financing to the firms. The interest
rate term structure is the relation between the interest rate and the time to maturity
of the debt for a given borrower in a given currency. A decrease in interest rate
implies lower cost of finance for firms and more profitability. More money is
available at a lower interest rate for the brokers who are doing business with
borrowed money. Availability of cheap fund encourages speculation and rise in the
price of shares.
Even much before 2008, the interest rate has been constant to 6% but it remained
so till the onset of 2009. During December 2008, interest rate was slightly
decreased to 5.24%. Thereafter showing a not stop fall by every month. From
5.24% to 4.05%, then to 4%, 3.55%, 3.39% and so on during the month of Jan,
Feb, March, April respectively. However, in the following month it further
declined to 3.25% and remained stagnant at it for the rest of the month in the year
2009 along with first two months of the 2010. It was in March 2010 that first time
after 16months interest rate slight rose to 3.34%.
The diagram below shows Central Bank Overnight Rate since 2003:


Relationship between GDP, I nflation rate & I nterest rate
GDP, Inflation and interest rate are inter-dependent on each other. For stock
market investors, annually growth in GDP is vital. If overall economic output is
declining or merely holding steady, most companies will not be able to increase
their profits, which is the primary driver of stock performance. However, too much
GDP growth is also dangerous, as it will most likely come with an increase in
inflation, which erodes stock market gains by making investors money (and future
corporate profits) less valuable.
Again, investors aim to preserve the value of their money by opting
for investments that generate yields higher than the rate of inflation. In developed
economies, banks try to keep the interest rates on savings accounts equal to the
inflation rate. However, when the inflation rate raises, then companies or
governments issuing debt instruments need to lure investors with a higher interest
rate. Inflation is an autonomous occurrence that is impacted by money supply in
an economy. Central governments use the interest rate to control money supply
and, consequently, the inflation rate. When interest rates are high, it becomes more
expensive to borrow money and savings become attractive. When interest rates are
low, banks are able to lend more, resulting in an increased supply of money.
Alteration in the rate of interest can be used to control inflation by controlling the
supply of money in the following ways:
A high interest rate influences spending patterns and shifts consumers and
businesses from borrowing to saving mode. This influences money supply.
A rise in interest rates boosts the return on savings in building societies
and banks. Low interest rates encourage investments in shares. Thus, the rate
of interest can impact the holding of particular assets.
A rise in the interest rate in a particular country fuels the inflow of funds.
Investors with funds in other countries now see investment in this country as
a more profitable option than before




The chart above displays last two years GDP, inflation rate and interest rate where
GDP is quarterly calculated, inflation and interest rate is monthly drawn so as to
make an easy pictorial comparison.
When inflation was between 5-7%, GDP growth rate was around 8% at a stagnant
interest rate of 6%. But with a slight rise of inflation during June08, leads to a fall
in GDP at the same interest level of 6%. With the onset of June09, GDP rises even
though with a rise in inflation rate mainly due to the curbing of interest rate by RBI
to 3.25%. Again a further rise in inflation after December09 to 14.97%, the dip in
GDP at 6% was seen, interest rate remaining constant at 3.25%. By the end of
March 2010, GDP rose to 8.6% along with high inflation rate of 14.86% and
interest rate being increased to 3.34%.

Industry Analysis
The service industry has been at the forefront of the rapid growth of the Indian
economy. Indias banking sector compares favorably with most of its global peers
on the ground of asset quality, capital adequacy, profitability and overall
contribution to GDP. In India, almost 30,000villages have bank branches out of
around 7,00,000villages. Indian Banking sector has always sustained well mainly
due to its strong Monetary and Fiscal policy. The global economic meltdown has
not had a deep impact on the banking system in India. The banks in India have a
strong fundamental structure and are well protected from the economic crisis. The
robust economic growth in India, low defaulter ratio, non existence of complex
financial products, constant monitoring by the central bank, efficient monetary
policy and the non aggressive close banking culture has shielded the Indian
banking sector. Today in India there are totally 56,640 branches, 893,356
employees and 27,088 ATMs. Public sector banks account for 87.7 per cent of the
offices, 82 per cent of staff and 60.3 per cent of ATMs. The banking system in
India, controlled by the Reserve Bank of India, is dominated by Scheduled
Commercial Banks (SCBs) with a pan-India presence.
India has over 20 stock exchanges with NSE and BSE being the main ones. There
are over 8,000brokers registered with the SEBI. The NSE ranks fourth among the
top exchanges in the world, with respect to the number of trades in equity shares.
Banks are venturing into new avenues such as wealth management, private
banking, doorstep banking, credit cards, investment advisory services and various
financial products. As per the first quarter review of the monetary policy 2010-11
released on July27, 2010 were:
The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has been kept unchanged at 6 percent.
It has also increased the Repo and Reverse Repo to 5.75 percent and 4.5
percent respectively.
Impact of Inflation on Banking Sector
the amount of bank lending declines with inflation. Inflation affects bank lending
even at relatively low inflation rates-the median ratio of bank lending to GDP in
the second quartilc is 10 percent smaller than in the first quartile, and the median
inflation rate in the second quartile is only 6.6 percent. Many people might be
surprised that such a "small" rate of inflation could cause such a fall in credit. At
the highest inflation quartile. the effect is dramatic, with the ratio of bank lending
to GDP only IS percent.
A STUDY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF DERIVATIVE
STOCK FUTURES
The following are the Stock Futures of selected companies whose expiry date is
27-01-11 whose Moving average was calculated and presented using the Line
graph. The data is taken is of 90days.
I) Table showing Closing Price and Moving average of BHEL Future Stocks
BHEL







date closing price moving average
5-Nov-10 2495.8
12-Nov-10 2424.65
19-Nov-10 2289.15 2311.01
26-Nov-10 2120.95 2271.1
3-Dec-10 2224.5 2251.41
10-Dec-10 2296.25 2255.04
16-Dec-10 2326.2 2299.44
24-Dec-10 2307.3 2312.82
31-Dec-10 2342.95 2292.01
7-Jan-11 2291.4 2268.96
14-Jan-11 2192.2

Interpretation:
The closing prices of Future stock shows a v shape formation on 26-Nov
showing fall in stock price. Buy signal is shown on 10-dec where price is
raising above its moving average. On 24-dec there is a signal of trend
reversal where both lines cross each other.
Moving Average in the diagram signals a fall in the future stock prices of BHEL.
The moving average indicated by the red line on the above graph, tends to cross
the blue line i.e. the closing price. It is evident that after a small dip of one or two
weeks the price of the stock will rise crossing the red line (moving average). The
price might not go below Rs.2170 as the trend line of the graph says. This is
definitely a phase for closing sale and going buy.

Dr. Reddy Labs:
date Closing price moving average
5-Nov-10 1678.35
12-Nov-10 1777.50
19-Nov-10 1788.75 1779.45
26-Nov-10 1803.65 1807.86
3-Dec-10 1849 1812.47
10-Dec-10 1820.40 1793.28
16-Dec-10 1800.55 1766.57
24-Dec-10 1692.80 1730.71
31-Dec-10 1670.10 1695.53
7-Jan-11 1669.70
14-Jan-11 1644.50



Interpretation:
The graph displays a steep fall in the stock prices after 3
rd
December giving
repeated signals for closing sales. Divergence in the two lines signals a further fall
in the prices of Future contract till Rs.1575. Thereafter, the intersection between
the moving average and Closing price the price will rise. Before both the lines
intersect, sale should be closed and on the intersecting date buy should be made.
HDFC:
date
Closing
price
moving
price
5-Nov-10 705.85
12-Nov-10 70.585
19-Nov-10 705.85 574.677
26-Nov-10 689.35 568.779
3-Dec-10 701.75 693.262
10-Dec-10 676.36 693.282
16-Dec-10 693 701.662
24-Dec-10 705.95 698.122
31-Dec-10 731.25 691.39
7-Jan-11 684.05
14-Jan-11 642.70




Interpretation:
The above graph represents a signal of trend reversal. Both the lines remained
horizontal after a steep rise on Nov. 12
th
. The price along with the moving average
oscillated at the same level. Therefore, a trend reversal might lead to steep fall in
the prices. The prices might go below Rs.615. It is definitely a time to close all
sales and go for buy.



RELIANCE:
date Closing price moving average
5-Nov-10 1125.65
12-Nov-10 1084.35
19-Nov-10 1013.05 1044.04
26-Nov-10 978.15 1025.58
3-Dec-10 1019 1022.24
10-Dec-10 1033.35 1033.97
16-Dec-10 1067.65 1051.79
24-Dec-10 1071.70 1061.34
31-Dec-10 1067.25 1054.98
7-Jan-11 1066.75
14-Jan-11 1001.55



Interpretation:
November faces a continuous fall in the price with the moving average remaining
above closing price. By 26
th
November the price fell to Rs.962. The graph above
shows that on 3
rd
of December the closing price intersects the moving average
which is a signal of price change or trend reversal. The moving average being
below the closing price, during December, registered a somewhat stable price
between Rs.1023 to Rs.1085. Thereafter 7
th
January, the prices fell again as the
moving average crossed the closing price from below and seems to remain above it
for some time. The prices might go below Rs.925.


Tata Steel
date Closing price moving average
5-Nov-10 632.85
12-Nov-10 614.50
19-Nov-10 611.65 615.99
26-Nov-10 601.65 613.24
3-Dec-10 619.30 622.69
10-Dec-10 619.10 633.17
16-Dec-10 661.75 649.56
24-Dec-10 664.05 658.06
31-Dec-10 683.60 657.87
7-Jan-11 661.80
14-Jan-11 618.15



Interpretation:
On 5
th
of November the price line was above the moving average and then
oscillated horizontally between the price Rs.606 to Rs.624. This signaled a trend
reversal. Hence, on 9
th
December the moving average cuts the price line and
remained below the closing price giving a signal to buy. Thereafter, the price
continued to rise until 6
th
January when the both the lines intersected again to
ensure a reverse trend. Since then the moving average remained above the price
line and price continued to fall. It is difficult to predict the coming trend as both the
lines are intersecting again. If the moving average crossed above price level then
the price will fall in coming days but if the price remained above moving average
then the price will rise.

Infosys
date Closing price moving price
5-Nov-10 3109.2
12-Nov-10 3109.20
19-Nov-10 3109.2 3110.68
26-Nov-10 3079.05 3123.44
3-Dec-10 3146.75 3164.95
10-Dec-10 3173.00 3221.13
16-Dec-10 3316.75 3294.24
24-Dec-10 3390.10 3342.79
31-Dec-10 3444.60 3351.14
7-Jan-11 3389.50
14-Jan-11 3214.75




Interpretation:
The starting phase of the graph shows the price and moving average oscillating
within a price level of Rs.3100. The moving average raised a little to intersect at
Rs.3300 price level giving a signal to buy. The price rose to Rs.3450 and then
continued to fall. A trend reversal is expected as the moving average is about to
intersect the price level from below. The prices are expected to fall in coming days.


Hcl: Technologies
date Closing price moving average
5-Nov-10
12-Nov-10 410.80
19-Nov-10 410.00 410.98
26-Nov-10 396.05 415.91
3-Dec-10 427.25 424.52
10-Dec-10 435.45 434.35
16-Dec-10 453.85 447.13
24-Dec-10 459.15 454.86
31-Dec-10 459.95 461.64
7-Jan-11 465.90
14-Jan-11 469.35



Interpretation:
The graph above shows a very close and persistent crossing over of the two lines.
But meanwhile the price continued to rise giving a strong signal to buy and hold.
The moving average is allied to the price line therefore if a trend reversal takes
place it can only be a downtrend which would ensure a sell signal. The price is
expected to rise above Rs.490.
V















FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

About Derivative market:
Large gaps exist in the range of derivatives products that are traded actively. In
equity derivatives, NSE figures show that almost 90% of activity is due to stock
futures or index futures, whereas trading in options is limited to a few stocks,
partly because they are settled in cash and not the underlying stocks. Exchange-
traded derivatives based on interest rates and currencies are virtually absent.
Further, there is no consistent method of accounting for gains and losses from
derivatives trading.


About Technical Analysis:
If the stock price line falls below the moving average line, the investor should
purchase the stock because the intrinsic value is more than the market price. That
means the stock is undervalued.
If the stock price line rises above the moving average line, the investor should
sell the stock as the intrinsic value is more than the market price. Therefore, the
stock is overvalued.
In December, there is decrease in future stocks of all the scrips due to the FIIs
made the selling and other reasons like decrease in Indian Industrial production i.e
from 2.7% (Nov) to 1.6% (Dec).











As Indian derivatives markets grow more sophisticated, greater investor
awareness will become essential.
In addition, institutions will need to devote more resources to develop the
business processes and technology necessary for derivatives trading.
Individual Risk tolerance should be known and then be ready for unexpected
It encourages the investors to invest less and speculate, but speculation is not
recommended.


About Technical analysis:

Moving averages are to be used with other tools of technical analysis which
may serve as leading indicators which help us to anticipate the trends more
sharply.
Technical analysis should be always backed up by fundamental analysis.
Investors shouldnt believe in rumors and do the needed study before taking the
decision.
Its better to diverse the funds into different industries.


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---Donald D.Fischer
---Ronald J.Jordan