Evaluation of Output and Unit Cost of Power Generation Systems Utilizing Solar

Energy Under Various Solar Radiation Conditions Worldwide

TAKANOBU KOSUGI, PYONG SIK PAK, and YUTAKA SUZUKI
Osaka University, Japan
SUMMARY
Characteristics and economics of three power gen-
eration systems which utilize solar energy were investi-
gated and compared for systems located in five different
regions. The three systems investigated were a solar thermal
system, a solar photovoltaic system, and a CO
2
-capturing
hybrid power generation system utilizing solar thermal
energy (referred to as the hybrid system) which has been
proposed by the authors. The net generated power energy
and the net exergetic efficiency of the hybrid system have
been estimated to be larger and higher, respectively, than
those of the others. Economic evaluation reveals that the
unit cost of generated power energy of the solar thermal
system changes most widely corresponding to the change
in solar radiation condition and that the cost of the hybrid
system changes the least. In general, the most economical
system has been estimated to be the solar thermal system in
a location which is superior in solar condition and to be the
hybrid system in a not so good solar condition. The solar
photovoltaic system has the possibility of being the most
economical if its construction cost is greatly improved,
though the hybrid system is still the most economical under
considerably worse solar conditions such as in Osaka.
1999 Scripta Technica, Electr Eng Jpn, 127(3): 1-12,
1999
Key words: Solar thermal system; solar photovol-
taic system; CO2
-recovering hybrid power generation sys-
tem; exergy.
1. Introduction
In order to reduce carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emission
from power generation plants, introducing power genera-
tion systems utilizing natural energy such as solar energy
is expected to be effective. As to the power generation
systems utilizing solar energy, solar thermal power genera-
tion and solar photovoltaic power generation are well
known. Solar thermal power generation systems, e.g.
SEGS, have already been operated commercially in loca-
tions where the solar radiation condition is good [1]. With
respect to solar photovoltaic power generation, the produc-
tion capacity of photovoltaic modules has increased rapidly
in the developed nations [2]. However, the solar energy
which can be utilized on the ground depends on the region;
and the worsening of economics due to a decrease in the
capacity cannot be avoided for these solar-energy-utilizing
systems in regions where the solar radiation condition is not
good. Therefore, widespread introduction is difficult as
long as drastic drops in construction costs cannot be
achieved.
The authors and others have previously proposed a
CO
2
-capturing hybrid solar thermal power generation sys-
tem in which both solar thermal energy and fossil fuel are
utilized [3-5]. In the proposed system, since relatively
low-temperature steam is produced by utilizing the solar
thermal energy and is used as the main working fluid of the
gas turbine to generate electric power, the heat collecting
efficiency can be raised compared to the case of conven-
tional solar thermal power generation; and since fossil fuel
is also used, the capacity can be drastically improved. For
this reason, there is a possibility that the proposed system
is economically feasible even when the proposed system is
installed in places where the solar radiation condition is not
good, such as in Osaka City, Japan [6]. Using the pure
oxygen combustion method, the proposed system can cap-
ture in principle all the CO
2
emitted, and it has been
estimated that a high fuel-based power generation effi-
ciency of over 60% can be obtained on a lower heating value
basis even taking into account the electric power energy
consumed in CO
2
recovery and liquefaction.
When strict CO
2
emission restriction is imposed in
the future, the worldwide introduction of solar-energy-util-
izing power generation systems worldwide may become
necessary. However, the characteristics and economics of
CCC0424-7760/99/030001-12
1999 Scripta Technica
Electrical Engineering in Japan, Vol. 127, No. 3, 1999
Translated from Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi, Vol. 118-B, No. 3, March 1998, pp. 246-253
1
solar-energy-utilizing power generation systems depend on
the solar radiation condition at the installed location; more-
over, the structure of the installed systems varies. Since the
regional difference in solar radiation conditions is large
worldwide, the introduction must be promoted in such a
way that an appropriate system is selected from the various
solar-energy-utilizing power generation systems according
to the installation location from the viewpoint of charac-
teristics and economics.
For the purpose of clarifying which power generation
system should be introduced in the future under what
conditions, three systems are investigated-a solar thermal
power generation system, a solar photovoltaic power gen-
eration system, and a CO
2
-capturing solar thermal hybrid
power generation system. Our research has entailed a com-
parative evaluation of the characteristics and economics of
these systems. In this evaluation, we have taken into ac-
count that the characteristics and economics of the systems
differ due to solar radiation conditions, and estimated the
characteristics of the systems based on various solar radia-
tion conditions. In the economic evaluation, we have esti-
mated and evaluated the construction cost and unit cost of
fuel in the future; and we have also studied the conditions
under which condition each system is preferable economi-
cally.
2. Structures of the Evaluated Systems
Figure 1 shows the fundamental structures of the
three systems evaluated. In the solar thermal power genera-
(a) Solar thermal power generation system, STS
(b) Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS
Fig. 1. Fundamental structures of the evaluated systems utilizing solar energy.
(c) Solar thermal hybrid power generation system, HBS
2
tion system (STS) shown in Fig. 1(a), by utilizing the
energy obtained in the solar thermal collectors, the super-
heated steam produced by the heat exchanger is used as the
working fluid of the steam-turbine power generation sys-
tem. In the solar photovoltaic power generation system
(PVS) shown in Fig. 1(b), the electric power obtained by
flat-plate photovoltaic arrays is transmitted through an in-
verter. In the CO
2
-capturing solar thermal hybrid power
generation system (HBS), the steam is produced by utiliz-
ing the energy obtained in the solar thermal collectors and
used as the working fluid of the CO
2
-capturing H
2
O-turbine
power generation system. As shown in Fig. 1(c), the steam
accumulator is used as a heat storage devise as was done in
Ref. 6. For details of the configuration of the HBS, see Refs.
3 to 7.
In these systems, the solar thermal collector is of
trough type; and for both solar thermal collectors and
photovoltaic arrays, the single north-south axis method is
adopted the same as in Ref. 4.
3. Evaluation of Hourly Solar Radiation at Various
Locations
As an example of the installation locations of the
systems studied, five sites shown in Table 1 are selected.
The regional difference in solar radiation conditions is seen
to be large; for example, the total horizontal solar radiation
energy in the Great Sandy Desert (Australia) is 1.80 times
that in Osaka. Moreover, the mean value of the total solar
radiation energies worldwide is about 4.7 kWh/m
2
bday,
which is roughly equivalent to the average value of the total
horizontal solar radiation energies of Ottawa or Miami.
Solar radiation can be divided into direct solar radia-
tion and diffuse solar radiation. In the trough thermal col-
lectors used in the STS and the HBS, only the direct solar
radiation component can be used; however, in the flat-plate
photovoltaic arrays of the solar photovoltaic PVS, the dif-
fuse solar radiation component can also be utilized. Thus,
both direct and diffuse solar radiation data are required in
estimating the characteristics of the systems studied. More-
over, in order to accurately estimate the characteristics of
thermal collection and storage, it is desirable to obtain the
solar radiation data hourly; however, the locations where
the measurement data can be obtained are limited. In this
paper, we have estimated by the following procedures, the
hourly mean direct solar radiation intensity and mean dif-
fuse solar radiation intensity with the daily mean total solar
radiation energy according to month in the locations where
the data are easy to obtain.
(i) From the monthly mean values of daily total
horizontal solar radiation energy, the monthly mean values
of hourly total horizontal solar radiation intensity is esti-
mated with the use of Fig. 2. Figure 2 shows the curves,
obtained on the basis of many measured values, that can be
used to determine the hourly total solar radiation energy
from the daily total solar radiation energy [12].
(ii) By utilizing the direct-diffuse separation
method based on IEA [8], the hourly mean direct normal
solar radiation intensity and the hourly mean diffuse hori-
zontal solar radiation intensity are estimated from the
hourly mean total horizontal solar radiation intensity ob-
tained in (i).
The solar radiation intensity incident on the light-ab-
sorbing surface of the solar thermal collectors and photo-
voltaic arrays is estimated as follows. Let I
H
, I
D
, and I
S
be
respectively the total horizontal solar radiation intensity,
Table 1. Estimated annual mean values of daily direct
and diffuse solar radiation energy (units: kWh/m
2
bday)
Location of
installation
Total
horizontal
solar
radiation
energy
*
Direct
normal
solar
radiation
energy
Diffuse
solar
radiation
energy
Osaka 3.63 2.50 1.99
New York 3.84 3.54 1.63
Ottawa 3.91 4.42 1.38
Miami 5.31 5.60 1.55
Great Sandy Desert 6.53 7.68 1.22
Fig. 2. Graph for estimating hourly total solar radiation
from daily total solar radiation.
3
direct normal solar radiation intensity, and diffuse horizon-
tal solar radiation intensity; and let H
D
be the direct com-
ponent of solar radiation intensity, and H
S
the diffuse
component of solar radiation intensity among the solar
radiation incident on the light-absorbing surface in the
one-axis tracking scheme with N-S axis fixed. Then, H
D
can be expressed by the following equation [4, 13]
where 6 is the angle of incidence on the light-absorbing
surface of the sunlight and can be calculated from
Here, 6, /, and are, respectively, the latitude of the
location of installation, solar declination, and hour angle.
The diffuse solar radiation component H
S
can be
estimated by using the following equation with an accuracy
which is practically no problem [8, 13]:
In Eq. (3), the first term on the right-hand side is the sky
solar radiation component and the second term is the re-
flected solar radiation component; - expresses the tracking
angle of sunlight on the light-absorbing surface calculated
using Eq. (4); and 7 expresses the reflection factor of the
ground surface.
7 takes different values depending on the state of the ground
surface; however, we use 0.15 as the value of 7 in this paper.
From the measured values of the monthly mean total
horizontal solar radiation energy at various locations, the
hourly mean direct solar radiation intensity and mean dif-
fuse solar radiation intensity according to month are esti-
mated by the above-mentioned procedures. The estimated
annual mean values of the daily direct and diffuse solar
radiation energies are also shown in Table 1. It can be seen
that the difference in direct solar radiation energy becomes
even larger than for total solar radiation energy, and it is
estimated that the direct solar radiation energy of the Great
Sandy Desert is 3.07 times that of Osaka.
4. Characteristics Evaluation
4.1 Assumed conditions
Using the hourly solar radiation data estimated in
section 3, the power generation characteristics of the sytems
are estimated with simulation models constructed by the
authors [3-7]. In these simulation models, the thermody-
namic relational equations on the state quantities of the
fluid on the inlet side and outlet side in the apparatus
comprising the power generation system, such as solar
thermal collector, steam turbine, and gas turbine, are de-
scribed respectively in block implementation by means of
the object-oriented programming language C++. The simu-
lation programs of the power generation systems can be
easily constructed by combining the blocks according to the
system configurations.
Table 2 shows the main conditions assumed in the
characteristics estimation.
(a) Solar thermal power generation system, STS
For the solar thermal collectors with a total aperture
area of 10 ha having the characteristics shown in Table 2(a),
superheated steam of 346 C, 14 kg/cm
2
a-which is the
same as the pilot plant constructed in Nio-cho of Kagawa
in Japan-is produced by the heat exchanger. In the steam-
turbine power generation system, it is assumed that the
water-cooling-type condenser can be adopted and the outlet
pressure of the condenser is set at 0.1 kg/cm
2
a. For simplic-
ity, the heat storage tank is not installed.
The economics of the system is expected to be im-
proved when the generated energy is increased and the
construction cost is cheaper. Here, since the area of the solar
thermal collectors is fixed, the utilizable total energy of the
solar radiation is constant. However, since the solar radia-
tion energy changes with time, when the capacity (net
power output) of the steam-turbine power generation sys-
tem is small, the energy that cannot be effectively utilized
will occur in time zones where the solar radiation condition
is good. In order to increase the generated energy, it is
necessary to make the net power output large. However,
since the increase of the net power output increases the
construction cost, there exists an appropriate scale from the
viewpoint of economics. Accordingly, for the rated output,
we search for the value at which the unit cost of power
generation is the lowest at the respective locations of instal-
lation.
(b) Solar photovoltaic power generation system,
PVS
The array area is set as 10 ha, the same as for the solar
thermal collectors in the STS. Polycrystalline silicon pho-
tovoltaic cells are used and their efficiency is set at 15%
(array efficiency) taking into account the drop of efficiency
due to array implementation [14]. The energy loss factor is
set as 10% summarizing the loss due to inverter, etc.
(c) Hybrid power generation system, HBS
The solar thermal collector and heat exchanger hav-
ing the same characteristics and scales as in the STS are
used. The temperature of the saturated steam produced is
set as 220 C. The inside volume of the steam accumulator
and the steam pressure at the inlet of the CO
2
-captured H
2
O
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
4
turbine power generation system are assumed to be 2000
m
3
and 10 kg/cm
2
a, respectively, the same as in Ref. 6. The
inlet temperature of the turbine is set at 1200 C and the
outlet pressure of the condenser is set at 0.1 kg/cm
2
a. As to
scale capacity (net power output), the value has been sought
at which the unit cost of generated power energy becomes
the lowest at the respective installed locations, as is done in
the solar thermal power generation system. In addition to
the exogenous variables listed in Table 2(c), as to the values
of exogenous parameters required in simulation, such as
Table 2. Assumed conditions for characteristics estimation
(a) Solar thermal power generation system, STS
Total aperture area of solar thermal collector 10 ha (100,000 m
2
)
Optical efficiency of solar thermal collector 70%
Concentration ratio of solar thermal collector 30
Effective emittance of solar thermal collector 0.4
Temperature difference on high-temperature side and low-temperature side of heat ex-
changer
both 20 C
Energy loss rate in thermal transportation and heat exchanger 10%
Temperature of steam produced by utilizing solar thermal energy 346 C
Net power output of steam-turbine power generation system searching for an optimal value
such that the unit cost of
generated power energy becomes
minimum
Inlet steam pressure of steam turbine 14 kg/cm
2
a
Adiabatic efficiency of steam turbine 80%
Generator efficiency 95%
Outlet pressure of condenser 0.1 kg/cm
2
a
(b) Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS
Total area of photovoltaic-cell array 10 ha (100,000 m
2
)
Conversion efficiency of photovoltaic array 15%
Energy loss rate due to inverter, etc. 10%
(c) Hybrid power generation system, HBS
Characteristics and capacities of solar thermal collector and heat exchanger same as for solar thermal power
generation system
Temperature of saturated steam produced by utilizing solar thermal energy 200 C
Internal volume of steam accumulator 2000 m
3
Rated power output of CO
2
-capturing H
2
O turbine power generation system searching for an optimal value
such that the unit cost of
generated power energy is a
minimum
Inlet steam pressure of CO
2
-capturing H
2
O turbine power generation system 10 kg/cm
2
a
Outlet pressure of condenser 0.1 kg/cm
2
a
Inlet temperature of turbine 1200 C
Temperature of return water 100 C
5
temperature efficiency of regenerator, adiabatic efficiency
of turbine, and generator efficiency, the same values are
used as those found in Ref. 6.
4.2 Estimated characteristics and comparison
For convenience of explanation, the cost data of the
power generation systems used in estimating the unit cost
of power generated energy will be described in section 5.
Table 3 and Fig. 3 show the net power output of the systems
at the respective locations of installation and the estimated
results of the annual net generated energy, respectively. In
Fig. 3, the horizontal axis expresses the average direct
normal solar radiation energy per day in a year, and the
trend of the dependence of the generated energy on the solar
radiation condition can be shown by connecting the esti-
mated values at the five locations. As seen in Table 3, the
net power outputs of the STS and HBS when the unit cost
of generated power energy is estimated to be minimum are
all estimated to become larger as the direct solar radiation
energy at the location of installation is larger. As seen in
Fig. 3, the same relation is also applicable for the generated
energy. The net power output of the PVS is constant regard-
less of location of installation; however, it is also seen that
larger electrical energy can be obtained at the locations
where the direct solar radiation energy is abundant, similar
to the other two systems. When the generated energies of
the systems are compared, we can see that they become
larger in increasing order of the STS, PVS, and HBS at all
locations.
The estimated capacity factors determined from the
estimated net power output and generated energy are also
shown in Table 3. As seen, the capacity factor is estimated
to be 24% to 36% in the STS, 16% to 34% in the PVS, and
70% to 79% in the HBS. Also, the capacity factor of the
PVS is most heavily dependent on the direct solar radiation
energy at the location of installation.
The capacity factor of the STS is estimated to be
higher than that of the PVS. The reason is as follows, taking
the case of Osaka as an example. The maximum possible
net power output of the STS is estimated to be 13.6 MW,
about the same as that of the PVS. When the net power
output of the STS is set at 13.6 MW, the capacity factor of
the system becomes 7.09%, considerably lower than that of
Table 3. Estimated maximum net power output and capacity factor
Solar thermal power
generation system, STS
Solar photovoltaic power
generation system, PVS
Solar thermal hybrid power
generation system, HBS
Net power
output
Capacity
factor
Net power
output
Capacity
factor
Net power
output
Capacity
factor
Location of Installation (MW) (%) (MW) (%) (MW) (%)
Osaka 3.80 24.2 13.5 16.3 3.96 75.2
New York 5.49 25.4 13.5 18.6 4.68 74.3
Ottawa 6.34 27.6 13.5 20.3 5.20 74.7
Miami 7.21 35.0 13.5 26.9 7.02 78.7
Great Sandy Desert 10.1 36.3 13.5 34.3 9.52 70.4
Fig. 3. Estimated annual generated power energy.
6
the PVS. When the net power output of the STS is smaller,
the capacity factor increases. Here, since the net power
output of the STS is set at the small value of 3.80 MW from
the viewpoint of economics, the capacity factor of the STS
is estimated to be higher (24.2%) than for the PVS (the net
power output for the same capacity factor as the PVS is
estimated to be 5.88 MW).
The capacity factor of the HBS is drastically higher
than for the STS. This is because not only solar energy but
also fossil fuel are used as primary energy in the HBS.
Figure 4 shows the estimated heat-collecting effi-
ciency of the solar thermal collector in the STS and HBS.
When the estimated heat-collecting efficiency of the solar
thermal collector in the HBS is 2.8% to 9.4% higher than
that of the STS, the difference in efficiency is seen to be
larger at locations where the direct solar radiation energy is
smaller. This is because the average temperature of the solar
thermal collector in the STS is 216 C, whereas that of the
HBS is lower (180 C), and, in general, the heat-collecting
efficiency of the solar thermal collector becomes higher
when the average temperature of the solar thermal collector
is lower [3].
The power generation efficiencies of the systems are
compared on the exergy basis, since the quality of the
energy differs between fossil fuel and solar energy. For the
calculation the exergy, the reference environmental tem-
perature for the calculation of the exergy is set as 25 C and
the brightness temperature of the sun is set at 4930 C,
which is the value when the air mass is 1 [13]. Figure 5
shows the estimated results of the total net exergetic effi-
ciencies of the systems. It is seen that the exergetic effi-
ciency of the STS is estimated to become higher at locations
where direct solar radiation energy is abundant. As shown
in Fig. 4, this is because the heat-collecting efficiency of the
solar thermal collector becomes higher with increasing
direct solar radiation intensity. On the other hand, the
exergetic efficiency of the HBS becomes lower at higher
solar radiation locations because the ratio occupied by the
exergy of the solar radiation among the total input exergy
becomes higher. In the PVS, the exergetic efficiency is
estimated to be constant at 14.4% regardless of the solar
radiation condition.
The exergetic efficiency becomes higher in increas-
ing order of the STS, PVS, and HBS, and the exergetic
efficiency of the HBS is estimated to be 1.33 to 2.08 times
that of the STS and 22.1% to 60.3% higher than that of the
PVS. The exergetic efficiency of the HBS is relatively
higher because the HBS uses fossil fuel in addition to solar
thermal energy.
It should be noted, however, the fact that the exergetic
efficiency of a power generation system is high does not
necessarily mean that the economics of that system is high.
5. Economic Evaluation
5.1 Assumed cost data
Except for some regions where the solar radiation
condition is good, the evaluated systems present difficulty
Fig. 4. Estimated heat-collecting efficiency of solar
thermal collector.
Fig. 5. Estimated net total exergetic efficiency.
7
for large-scale introduction because of economic or tech-
nological problems at the present time. Here, as the period
under consideration, we will deal with a future time when
CO
2
-capturing technology based on the pure oxygen com-
bustion method required for realizing the HBS and the
technology of deep-ocean dumping of captured CO
2
may
reach the practical stage. We will carry out the economic
evaluation by assuming the reduction of construction costs
due to technological progress up to that point along with
the possible rise of fuel prices.
Table 4 shows the cost data assumed in the evaluation.
These future cost data are based on Refs. 11 to 19. As to the
solar thermal collector, taking into account an example
where the construction cost is expected to decrease about
40% in the future [11], we have set the low, medium, and
high levels of the unit construction cost to be 14,000,
18,000, and 22,000 yen/m
2
, respectively. The construction
cost of the PVS is 1 K 10
6
to 2.5 K 10
6
yen/kW at the present
time; however, the future uncertainty is considered to be
relatively large, there being a report of the possibility of
dropping to one-fifth along with the increase in the annual
production in the future [15]. In the PVS of large-scale
ground installation type for electric utilities as discussed in
this paper, taking into account also that specialized mount-
ing structures are required (different from the case of in-
stalling a small-scale power generation system on a roof),
and that the cost of the entire system will not drop much,
we assumed here the construction costs of the medium level
as 350 K 10
3
yen/kW as shown in Table 4, and set the
construction costs of the low level and high level as 250 K
10
3
and 450 K 10
3
yen/kW, respectively.
*
The unit cost of natural gas at present is about 0.5
yen/MJ (about 2 yen/Mcal); although the outlook is that it
will not change much in the short term, there is a possibility
that it may rise sharply along with the resource exhaustion
in the long term. Here, we will investigate the economics
Table 4. Assumed cost data for economic evaluation
Facilities, etc. Assumed values
Trough type solar thermal collector 14 K 10
3
yen/m
2
(low level)
18 K 10
3
yen/m
2
(medium level)
22 K 10
3
yen/m
2
(high level)
Steam-turbine power generation system 150 K 10
3
yen/kW
Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS 250 K 10
3
yen/kW (low level)
350 K 10
3
yen/kW (medium level)
450 K 10
3
yen/kW (high level)
H
2
O turbine power generation system 200 K 10
3
yen/kW
Oxygen production compressor 440 K 10
6
yen/(t C/h)
CO
2
liquefying equipment 310 K 10
6
yen/(t C/h)
Steam accumulator 47 K 10
3
yen/m
2
Unit cost of fuel Case A: 0.8 yen/MJ
Case B: 1.2 yen/MJ
Case C: 1.6 yen/MJ
Recovered CO
2
processing 8000 yen/t C
Annual expense factor 0.173,
*
0.143
f
*
Solar thermal power generation system, STS and solar thermal hybrid power generation system,
HBS.
f
Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS.
*
The construction cost is not necessarily the same due to the difference in
installation condition at the respective location of installation. However,
since the objective of this paper is evaluation of the effect of the difference
in solar radiation conditions on the characteristics and economics of the
systems, we have assumed that the construction cost is constant regardless
of the location of installation.
8
by assuming three cases: Cases A, B, and C as shown in
Table 4.
As to the disposal methods of the captured CO
2
, we
have assumed the case of transporting it from the location
of installation to a location 100 km away and disposing it
into deep-ocean dumping or underground processing; its
cost is set as 8000 yen/t C [16].
The general electric power utilities are assumed to
construct and operate the systems, and the construction cost
is assumed to be depreciated in 10 years. In the systems that
will emit no CO
2
, the relatively low fixed rate of interest is
regarded as utilizable, and the rate of interest of the capital
is set as 4%/year. The maintenance cost rate of the STS and
HBS is set as 5%/year, and the maintenance cost rate of the
PVS without using the mechanical power system is set as
2%/year. Therefore, the annual cost rate of the facilities is
set as 0.173 for the STS and HBS and 0.143 for the PVS.
5.2 Economic evaluation based on unit cost of
generated power energy
In this paper, the economics of the power generation
systems are evaluated on the basis of the unit cost of
generated power energy. C
P
, the unit cost of generated
power energy, can be determined as
(c) Case C (unit cost of fuel 1.6 yen/MJ)
Fig. 6. Estimated unit cost of generated power energy where low and high construction costs are assumed.
(5)
(b) Case B (unit cost of fuel 1.2 yen/MJ) (a) Case A (unit cost of fuel 0.8 yen/MJ)
9
where, W
N
is the annual net generated energy and C
G
is the
annual cost of generated power energy expressed as
*
The estimated results for the case when the unit cost
of fuel has risen are shown in Fig. 6. In the future, the
low-level and high-level assumed values are used as the
construction costs of the solar thermal collector and solar
photovoltaic power generation system. As seen from Fig.
6, the uncertainty of the unit cost of power generated energy
caused by the uncertainty of the assumed costs is estimated
to become larger in the increasing order of the HBS, the
STS, and the PVS. Let us explain the estimated results of
the unit cost of generated energy for the case when the
construction cost is reduced drastically, namely, when the
low-level assumed values are used as the construction costs.
As seen from Fig. 6(a), for Case A, in locations where the
solar radiation condition is not very good (such as Osaka,
New York, and Ottawa), the unit cost of generated power
energy of the HBS is the lowest (that is, most economical).
However, in other locations, the PVS is estimated to be the
most economical. Moreover, as in Cases B and C, when the
unit cost of fuel rises, the economical superiority of the PVS
is estimated to become higher. On the contrary, according
to the estimated unit cost of generated power energy, when
using the high-level values as the construction costs, the
unit cost of the PVS becomes drastically high, and it is seen
that the STS becomes the most economical in locations
where direct solar radiation energy is abundant and that the
HBS becomes the most economical in locations with a
lower solar radiation condition.
As seen from Fig. 6, in the STS and the PVS, the unit
cost of generated power energy drops considerably when
solar radiation energy is abundant; however, it decreases
slightly for the HBS. This is because, as shown in Fig. 5,
the exergetic efficiency (performance of the system) of the
HBS becomes worse with a decrease in the direct solar
radiation energy.
Figure 7 shows the estimated values of C
P
when the
medium-level values are used as the construction costs and
the unit cost of fuel is that of Case B. As seen, when the unit
costs of generated power energy at the various locations of
installation are compared, the STS is the most economical
at locations where the solar radiation condition is good, and
the HBS is the most economical at locations where the solar
radiation condition is not very good. The PVS of large-scale
ground installation type for electric utilities is estimated to
be of not much advantage economically in either location.
It is seen from Fig. 7 that the ratio of the change of the unit
cost of generated power energy with respect to the change
of direct solar radiation energy is estimated to become
higher in the increasing order of the HBS, the PVS, and
the STS.
6. Conclusions
The characteristics and economics of three systems
of power generation utilizing solar energy-solar thermal
power generation system (STS), solar photovoltaic power
generation system (PVS), and hybrid power generation
system (HBS)-have been evaluated by choosing five
places where the solar radiation condition is different as the
locations of installation.
Among the systems utilizing the solar thermal collec-
tors or photovoltaic arrays of the same area (10 ha), the net
generated energy and the total net exergetic efficiency of
the HBS are estimated to be the largest in all the locations.
The economics of the systems have also been evalu-
ated on the basis of the unit cost of generated power energy
under several conditions at a future time. The estimated unit
cost of power generation differs depending on the values of
the construction cost and unit cost of fuel. In general, the
unit cost of the STS is the lowest at locations where the solar
C
G
= facility depreciation cost + facility maintenance
cost + fuel cost + captured CO
2
disposal cost
(6)
*
Here, since it is assumed that the solar thermal collectors and photovoltaic
arrays of the same area are operated by the same tracking scheme for the
three evaluated systems, the land price is not considered explicitly. For
the other costs such as personnel expenses except the maintenance cost,
they are also not considered because the difference due to the system is
considered small.
Fig. 7. Estimated unit cost of generated power energy
where medium construction cost is assumed.
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radiation condition is good, and the unit cost of the HBS is
the lowest at locations where the solar radiation condition
is not very good. The ratio of the change of the unit cost of
power generation with respect to the change of the solar
radiation condition is estimated to be smaller in the decreas-
ing order of the STS, the PVS, and the HBS. When drastic
reduction of the construction costs can be achieved, the
economics of the PVS becomes the highest at many loca-
tions. However, when the construction costs are the me-
dium-level assumed values, the STS is estimated to be the
most economical at locations where the solar radiation
condition is good and the HBS at locations where the solar
radiation condition is not very good.
Under the restriction of CO
2
emission in the future,
the worldwide introduction of power generation systems
utilizing solar energy may become necessary; however,
since the regional differences in solar radiation conditions
is large, such introduction must be promoted by selecting
appropriate systems according to the location of installation
from among the power generation systems utilizing solar
energy. We hope that obtained results will prove instructive
on the selection of appropriate systems at various locations
of installation.
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AUTHORS (from left to right)
Takanobu Kosugi (member) graduated from the Department of Information System Engineering of Osaka University in
1993. He completed the master`s degree and has been a research associate at the Cooperative Research Center for Advanced
Science and Technology, Osaka University, since 1995. He is engaged in research on evaluation of CO, mitigating energy
systems. He is a member of the Japan Society of Energy and Resources.
Pyong Sik Pak (member) graduated from the Department of Electrical Engineering of Osaka University in 1968 and
obtained a Dr. of Eng. degree in 1973. He became a research associate in 1973 and an associate professor in 1988 in the
Department of Electrical Engineering and has been with the Department of Information Systems Engineering, Osaka University
since 1992. He is engaged in research on modeling and analysis of various systems. He is a member of the Japan Society of
Energy and Resources, the Gas Turbine Society of Japan, and the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers.
Yutaka Suzuki (member) graduated from the Department of Electrical Engineering of Osaka University in 1958 and
completed the master`s course in 1960 and later a Dr. of Eng. degree. After serving as a research associate and associate professor,
he became a professor in 1972 in the Department of Electrical Engineering, and has been with the Department of Information
Systems Engineering, Osaka University, since 1989. He is engaged in research on modeling and simulation as well as urban
planning. He is a member of the Japan Society of Energy and Resources, the Operations Research Society of Japan, and IMACS.

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