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Parametric Cost Analysis Handbook

PARAMETRIC COST ESTIMATING HANDBOOK


TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD
PREFACE
CHAPTER I -- INTRODUCTION, BACKGROUND AND DEFINITIONS
Introduction ..............................................................................................................
Background ..............................................................................................................
Definitions and Terms ..............................................................................................
Cost Realism ............................................................................................................

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CHAPTER II -- COLLECTION AND NORMALIZATION OF PARAMETRIC DATA


Generalizations .........................................................................................................
Significant Adjustments to Parametric Data ............................................................
Consistent Scope ..........................................................................................
Anomalies ....................................................................................................
Improved Technology ..................................................................................
Other Types of Adjustments and Data Normalization .............................................
Inflation ........................................................................................................
Learning Curve ............................................................................................
Production Rate ............................................................................................
Calibration and Validation of Cost Models .............................................................
Some Review and Audit Considerations .................................................................
Data Normalization Process .....................................................................................
Pitfalls to the Use of a Parametric Model ................................................................
Two Illustrations of Typical Data Normalization Problems ....................................
Summary ..................................................................................................................

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CHAPTER III -- ELEMENTARY STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES AND CER


DEVELOPMENT
CER and Model Development - Uncertainty and Risk Reduction ..........................
Developing Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) .................................................
Hypothesis Testing of a Logical CER .........................................................
The CER Model ...........................................................................................
When to Use a CER .................................................................................................
Strengths and Weaknesses of CERs .........................................................................
Strengths ......................................................................................................
Weaknesses ..................................................................................................
Regression Analysis .................................................................................................
Curve Fitting ............................................................................................................
Graphical Method ........................................................................................
LSBF Method ..............................................................................................
Multiple Regression .....................................................................................

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Parametric Cost Analysis Handbook

Curvilinear Regression ................................................................................


Goodness of Fit, R and R2 ....................................................................................
Correlation Analysis ....................................................................................
Coefficient of Determination .......................................................................
Coefficient of Correlation ............................................................................
The Learning Curve .................................................................................................
Limitations, Errors and Caveats of LSBF Techniques
.............................................
Extrapolation Beyond The Range of the Observed Data .............................
Cause and Effect ..........................................................................................
Using Past Trends to Estimate Future Trends .............................................
Misinterpreting the Coefficients of Correlation and Determination ............
Summary ......................................................................................................
Examples of CER Use ..............................................................................................
Construction .................................................................................................
Weapons Procurement .................................................................................
Electronics ...................................................................................................
Cost and Price Analysis ...............................................................................
Information and Techniques ........................................................................
Estimate Reliability ......................................................................................
Two Examples of CER Use .........................................................................
Common CERs ............................................................................................
Acceptance Criteria for a Cost Estimating Relationship
..........................................
Auditing and Analyzing a CER ...............................................................................
CER Analysis ...............................................................................................
General Features ..........................................................................................
Evaluating and Estimate ..............................................................................
Summary of CER Audit and Analysis .........................................................
CHAPTER IV -- HARDWARE COST MODELING
Introduction ..............................................................................................................
Overview of Hardware Cost Modeling ....................................................................
Micro-Circuit and Electronic Module Modeling .....................................................
Hardware Operations and Support (O&S) of Life Cycle Models ............................
Deployment and Employment .....................................................................
Hardware Parameters ...................................................................................
Program Globals ..........................................................................................
Commercial Models .................................................................................................
MicroFASTE ...............................................................................................
Price Parametric Models ..............................................................................
SEER ............................................................................................................
Regression Based Product Specific Cost Models ....................................................
Non-Commercial Cost Models ................................................................................
Non-Statistical Cost Models ....................................................................................
Model Calibration ....................................................................................................

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Parametric Cost Analysis Handbook

Cost Model Audit and Analysis ...............................................................................


Analyzing a Product Specific Cost Model ...................................................
Summary of Cost Model Audit and Analysis ..............................................

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CHAPTER V -- SOFTWARE PARAMETRIC COST ESTIMATING


Software Definition ..................................................................................................
The Importance of Software Today .........................................................................
The Software Development Process ........................................................................
The Waterfall Model ....................................................................................
The Software Cost Estimating Process ....................................................................
Define Project Objectives and Requirements ..............................................
Plan the Activities ........................................................................................
Software Estimation Risks ...........................................................................
Estimation Methodologies ...........................................................................
Software Cost Estimating Standards ............................................................
Benefits ........................................................................................................
Examples of Parametric Software Cost Estimating .................................................
Parametric Software Cost Estimating Tools ............................................................
Desired Functional Capabilities of Parametric Tools ..................................
Input Data Collection ...................................................................................
Some Commercial Tools .............................................................................
Software Sizing Tools ..................................................................................
Glossary of Terms ....................................................................................................
Model Calibration ....................................................................................................
Trends and Conclusions ...........................................................................................
Trends ..........................................................................................................
Conclusions ..................................................................................................

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CHAPTER VI -- AUDITING PARAMETRIC ESTIMATES - A MANAGEMENT


VIEWPOINT
Cost Estimating Relationships: A DCAA Perspective ...........................................
Introduction ..................................................................................................
Background ..................................................................................................
Parametric Criteria .......................................................................................
Logical Relationships ..................................................................................
Significant Statistical Relationships ............................................................
Verifiable Data .............................................................................................
Reasonably Accurate Predictions ................................................................
Proper System Monitoring ...........................................................................
Audit Planning and Requirements ...............................................................
Observations and Suggestions .....................................................................
Summary ......................................................................................................
Estimating System Reviews .....................................................................................
Forward Pricing Rate Agreement (FPRAs) .............................................................
What to Look For in a Parametric Estimate .............................................................
Rules of Thumb ...........................................................................................

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Parametric Cost Analysis Handbook

An Example .................................................................................................

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CHAPTER VII -- BUSINESS APPLICATIONS OF PARAMETRIC ESTIMATING


Introduction ..............................................................................................................
Parametric Estimating in New Business Development ............................................
Estimating Production Buys Using Parametrics ......................................................
Example: Estimating Production Buys Using Parametrics .........................
Estimating Spares and Change Orders .....................................................................

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Appendix A
Appendix B

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Appendix C
Appendix D
Appendix E
Appendix F
Appendix G

Definitions of Estimating Terminology ....................................................


Work Breakdown Structure
.......................................................................
DCAA CAM 9-1000 Section 10, Review of Parametric Cost Estimates .
More About Statistics ................................................................................
Examples of Other Hardware Estimating Models ....................................
Some Currently Available Software Estimation Products ........................
Parametric Estimating System Checklist ..................................................

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