RELIABILITY ENGINEERING

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING
Ing. Ronald Schop Ing. Ronald Schop
Weibull: Reliability Engineering Weibull: Reliability Engineering
www.weibull.nl www.weibull.nl
Life Data Analysis using
the Weibull distribution
PLOT Seminar October 2008
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Content Content
Why Reliability
Why Reliability
Weibull Statistics
Weibull Statistics
Weibull Shape Parameter
Weibull Shape Parameter

Cases:
Cases:
1
1
-
-
Steering Link Failures
Steering Link Failures
2
2
-
-
Is the new Design better?
Is the new Design better?
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Reliability
Reliability
Effects:
Effects:
Business Performance
BOTH CUSTOMER &
SUPPLIER
Warranty Costs
R&M Costs
Cost of Ownership
Pricing
Safety
Residual Value
Availability
Image
Re-buying
Customer & Supplier
Customer & Supplier
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PLOT Seminar 2008
New Price
Costs
Re-sale Price
Life Cycle Costs (EURO)
C
u
s
t
o
m
e
r

C
o
s
t
s
Current
Life Cycle Costs
Life Cycle Costs
Customer Costs
Customer Costs
Preventive
Warranty
Repair & Maintenance
Total Costs
Corrective
Current
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PLOT Seminar 2008
USA 1990 Deaths Per 100.000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 - 1 10 20 30 40 50 60
Age Intervals (years)
D
e
a
t
h
s
/
1
0
0
.
0
0
0
Real Life Bath Tub Curve
Real Life Bath Tub Curve
Statistics
Statistics
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Simplified Model:
Simplified Model:
Bath Tub curve
Bath Tub curve
System Life (years)
F
a
i
l
u
r
e
s

/

S
y
s
t
e
m

Early
Life
Useful Life
Late
Life
Infant
Mortality
Wear out
Random
Statistics
Statistics
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PLOT Seminar 2008
1
1
-
-
Extremely small sample size.
Extremely small sample size.
2
2
-
-

Dirty
Dirty

data sets.
data sets.
3
3
-
-

All
All

failure modes fit in Weibull.

failure modes fit in Weibull.
4
4
-
-
Focus on low % failure rate.
Focus on low % failure rate.
5
5
-
-
Both failures and suspensions.
Both failures and suspensions.
6
6
-
-
Managers can read the plot !
Managers can read the plot !
Worldwide WEIBULL Distribution is used for:
Life Data
(Warranty, Field-test & Rig Testing data)
Engineering Analyses
Statistics
Statistics
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Statistics
Statistics
WEIBULL 2 WEIBULL 2- -parameter formula: parameter formula:
Shape Parameter :
Characteristic Life :
NOTE:
Only one failure-
mode per Weibull
Failure Percentage : F(t)
(
(
(
(

|
|

\
|
=

t
t F exp 1 ) (
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Cumulative %
Failures (log-log)
Mileage / Time
(Log scale)
Characteristic
Life
Correlation
Sample
Number
Weibull Plot
Weibull Plot
Shape
Parameter
Regression
Line
Regression
Method
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Statistics
Statistics
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Statistics
Statistics
B(10) on
Weibull plot
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The Weibull
The Weibull
SHAPE Parameter:
SHAPE Parameter:


Clues to Failure
Clues to Failure
-
-
Modes
Modes

= rise/run
run
rise
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Interpreting the Plot
Interpreting the Plot
Infant Mortality
Infant Mortality
-
-
Beta < 1
Beta < 1
Solid State Electronics Solid State Electronics
Beta = .7 Beta = .7 - -.8 ...good stress screening .8 ...good stress screening
Beta = .2 Beta = .2 - -.3 ...bad stress screening .3 ...bad stress screening
Production Problems, quality control, misassemble, Production Problems, quality control, misassemble,
... ...
Overhaul Problems Overhaul Problems
Incorrect Maintenance Changes Incorrect Maintenance Changes
Improves with age like Whisky Improves with age like Whisky
Overhauling is dumb...inappropriate Overhauling is dumb...inappropriate... ...
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PLOT Seminar 2008
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Beta = 0,5
Weibull Distribution
Weibull Distribution
Infant Mortality
Infant Mortality
Beta < 1
Beta < 1
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Random Failures
Random Failures
Beta = 1.0 ...Exponential
Beta = 1.0 ...Exponential
Maintenance errors, human errors Maintenance errors, human errors
Random failures are independent of age. An old part is Random failures are independent of age. An old part is
as good as a new part. Ageless.... as good as a new part. Ageless....
Mother Nature: lightning strikes, foreign object Mother Nature: lightning strikes, foreign object
damage, woodpecker attacks on power poles damage, woodpecker attacks on power poles
Mixtures of more than 3 failure modes Mixtures of more than 3 failure modes
(assuming different betas) (assuming different betas)
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PLOT Seminar 2008
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Beta = 1
Weibull Distribution
Weibull Distribution
Random Failures
Random Failures
Beta = 1 ...Exponential
Beta = 1 ...Exponential
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Early Wearout
Early Wearout
1.0 <Beta<4.0
1.0 <Beta<4.0
Most Mechanical Failure Modes... Most Mechanical Failure Modes...
Low Cycle Fatigue, Bearing Failures Low Cycle Fatigue, Bearing Failures
Corrosion, Erosion Corrosion, Erosion
Overhauls, parts replacement may be cost effective. Overhauls, parts replacement may be cost effective.
Approximate replacement period may be read off Approximate replacement period may be read off
plot. plot.
These are often Design Deficiencies.... ...Unpleasant These are often Design Deficiencies.... ...Unpleasant
surprises............. surprises.............
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PLOT Seminar 2008
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Beta = 3,25
Weibull Distribution
Weibull Distribution
Early Wearout
Early Wearout
1.0 <Beta<4.0
1.0 <Beta<4.0
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Old Age Rapid
Old Age Rapid
Wearout, Beta > 4.0
Wearout, Beta > 4.0
Steep Betas within the Design Life cause great Steep Betas within the Design Life cause great
concern, & panic... Panic because the entire fleet concern, & panic... Panic because the entire fleet
will fail quickly as they age. will fail quickly as they age.
Beyond the Design Life, they are joy! Beyond the Design Life, they are joy!
Most steep Weibulls have a safe, benign period Most steep Weibulls have a safe, benign period
within which the risk is very low. within which the risk is very low.
The steeper beta, the smaller the variation in the The steeper beta, the smaller the variation in the
times times- -to to- -failure, and the more predictable the failure, and the more predictable the
results. results.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Beta = 5
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Weibull Distribution
Weibull Distribution
Old Age Rapid Wearout
Old Age Rapid Wearout
Beta > 4.0
Beta > 4.0
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PLOT Seminar 2008
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Time
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

D
e
n
s
i
t
y
Beta = 0,5
Beta = 1
Beta = 3,25
Beta = 5
Bath Tub
Can be modelled
Weibull Fits a Wide Range of Shapes
Weibull: Probability Density f(t) / Weibull: Probability Density f(t) /
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PLOT Seminar 2008
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

F
a
i
l
u
r
e
s

/

S
y
s
t
e
m
Design Life
Infant
Mortality
Early
Wear out
Random
Weibull Distributions for a Complex System
Weibull Distributions for a Complex System
< 1 = 1 1 < < 4 > 4
Old age
Rapid Wear out
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Cases
Cases
1
1

Steering Link Failures

Steering Link Failures
2
2

Is the new Design better?

Is the new Design better?
With Permission from Dr. R. B. Abernethy
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Forecasting Steering Link Failures
Forecasting Steering Link Failures
10 steering links on 18 Wheelers have
10 steering links on 18 Wheelers have
suddenly failed across the USA.
suddenly failed across the USA.
Safety, high losses, and adverse
Safety, high losses, and adverse

pr
pr

has
has
management concerned. There are 10,010
management concerned. There are 10,010
units installed.
units installed.
Management wants to know:
Management wants to know:
1. How many failures will there be? When? 1. How many failures will there be? When?
2. What will this problem cost the company? 2. What will this problem cost the company?
3. What corrective action can be taken? 3. What corrective action can be taken?
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PLOT Seminar 2008
With 10 failures the Weibull B1 life is 18,000
miles; this is unacceptable.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Next year we predict 576 failures with an upper 90% bound of Next year we predict 576 failures with an upper 90% bound of
872. The next failure is expected in six days. 872. The next failure is expected in six days.
How many failures? When?
How many failures? When?
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PLOT Seminar 2008
2. What will this problem cost?
2. What will this problem cost?
First year loss is predicted to be just over a million dollars b First year loss is predicted to be just over a million dollars but ut
might be as high as $1.6M. might be as high as $1.6M.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
3. What is the best corrective action?
3. What is the best corrective action?
Engineering says the root cause is the recent Engineering says the root cause is the recent
addition of power steering kits overstressing the links. addition of power steering kits overstressing the links.
It will take 2 years to redesign, test and produce It will take 2 years to redesign, test and produce
10,000 stronger links for retrofit. 10,000 stronger links for retrofit.
An immediate forced retrofit would be too painful and An immediate forced retrofit would be too painful and
embarrassing as we do not have enough spare embarrassing as we do not have enough spare
steering links to do it. Many trucks would be down for steering links to do it. Many trucks would be down for
months. months.
Opportunistic maintenance may be the answer. Opportunistic maintenance may be the answer.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
3. What is the best corrective action?
3. What is the best corrective action?
The optimal replacement interval for minimum cost is at The optimal replacement interval for minimum cost is at
22, 000 miles, based on the planned replacement cost of 22, 000 miles, based on the planned replacement cost of
$95 and the unplanned failure cost of $1850. $95 and the unplanned failure cost of $1850.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
3. What is the best corrective action?
3. What is the best corrective action?
2 Year Cost Analysis: 2 Year Cost Analysis:
No correction action No correction action = 3470 x $1850= $6.4M = 3470 x $1850= $6.4M
20K replace 20K replace = 397 x $1850 +(10010 = 397 x $1850 +(10010 - - 397) x $95 397) x $95
= $1.6M = $1.6M ..($4.8M Cost Avoidance) ..($4.8M Cost Avoidance)
The sooner the new links are available the sooner the The sooner the new links are available the sooner the
problem is fixed. 3 shift overtime is required. problem is fixed. 3 shift overtime is required.
A convenience retrofit at the 20,000 mile oil change would A convenience retrofit at the 20,000 mile oil change would
be close to optimal, less painful for our customers, and it be close to optimal, less painful for our customers, and it
would give us time to produce new links and solve the would give us time to produce new links and solve the
problem. problem.
Risk Reduction: 12 months from 576 to 187 failures, Risk Reduction: 12 months from 576 to 187 failures,
24 months from 3470 to 397 failures. 24 months from 3470 to 397 failures.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
3. What is the best corrective action?
3. What is the best corrective action?
Answer: Retrofit at 20,000 miles.
Answer: Retrofit at 20,000 miles.
Failures Avoided
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Engineering predicts that the links fail at low speed,
Engineering predicts that the links fail at low speed,
usually in reverse in a turn. So far this has been true.
usually in reverse in a turn. So far this has been true.
No one has been injured to date. Our liability
No one has been injured to date. Our liability
estimates are based on these assumed low cost
estimates are based on these assumed low cost
failures.
failures.
If the assumption is wrong and the links fail at high
If the assumption is wrong and the links fail at high
speed, liabilities would be increased.
speed, liabilities would be increased.
4. Liabilities?
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Summary / Conclusions
Summary / Conclusions
Installation of the redesigned replacement links will end the Installation of the redesigned replacement links will end the
problem. The redesign should be initiated with priority and 3 problem. The redesign should be initiated with priority and 3
shift overtime. shift overtime.
There is some indication that only one type of power steering There is some indication that only one type of power steering
kit produces the failures. The power steering vendor should kit produces the failures. The power steering vendor should
be contacted for a coordinated response to this problem. be contacted for a coordinated response to this problem.
This case study is based on actual data from two This case study is based on actual data from two
manufacturers that experienced this problem, one with manufacturers that experienced this problem, one with
trucks, one with cars. In both cases Weibull analysis trucks, one with cars. In both cases Weibull analysis
provided accurate predictions and analysis for management provided accurate predictions and analysis for management
action. action.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Case 2
Case 2
-
-
Is The New Design Better?
Is The New Design Better?
Customers say our product is not
Customers say our product is not

perfect.
perfect.

It fails
It fails
rather often!
rather often!
We have tested 8 of the new design and 8 of the
We have tested 8 of the new design and 8 of the
old units.
old units.
Is the new design significantly better than the old
Is the new design significantly better than the old
design or are the differences just statistical
design or are the differences just statistical
noise, and the new product is no better?
noise, and the new product is no better?
Here are the test results:
Here are the test results:
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Is There Real Improvement?
Is There Real Improvement?
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PLOT Seminar 2008
The Likelihood Ratio and
The Likelihood Ratio and
Contour Tests Provide the Answer
Contour Tests Provide the Answer
The The Likelihood Ratio Test Likelihood Ratio Test says the New Design is not says the New Design is not
significantly better at 90% but would be at a lower significantly better at 90% but would be at a lower
confidence level. confidence level.
The The Likelihood Contour Test Likelihood Contour Test compliments the ratio test and compliments the ratio test and
provides a picture, a plot, of the likelihood contours on the provides a picture, a plot, of the likelihood contours on the
next slide. The contour test confirms the Likelihood Ratio next slide. The contour test confirms the Likelihood Ratio
Tests results. Tests results.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Likelihood Contours Overlap
Likelihood Contours Overlap
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Summary
Summary
-
-
Is There Real Improvement?
Is There Real Improvement?
We do not have enough data to show the new design is We do not have enough data to show the new design is
better. More testing may prove it is significantly better. better. More testing may prove it is significantly better.
More then two sets may be compared with the likelihood More then two sets may be compared with the likelihood
methods. methods.
There are many applications for this technology, comparing There are many applications for this technology, comparing
vendor A with B, comparing different materials, different vendor A with B, comparing different materials, different
environments as well as new design versus old design. environments as well as new design versus old design.
Statistical confidence is provided. Statistical confidence is provided.
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Summary
Summary
New Methods are developed for extensive analysis like: New Methods are developed for extensive analysis like:
Batch Analysis. Batch Analysis.
Failure forecasting. Failure forecasting.
Optimal replacement point. Optimal replacement point.
Test requirements; ZERO failures, Sudden Death, and more. Test requirements; ZERO failures, Sudden Death, and more.
Combining different test Combining different test- -lengths and sample seizes. lengths and sample seizes.
Confidence intervals. Confidence intervals.
Crow Crow- -AMSAA System analysis (multiple modes). AMSAA System analysis (multiple modes).

Weibull distribution will fit Weibull distribution will fit all all failure failure- -modes. modes.
Simple plot managers can read and understand. Simple plot managers can read and understand.
Even with very little data analysis can be done. Even with very little data analysis can be done.
Focus on Engineering Focus on Engineering s interesting area. (B1 s interesting area. (B1 B5) B5)
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Handbooks and Software
Handbooks and Software
All methods presented, and much more All methods presented, and much more is documented in is documented in
The New Weibull Handbook The New Weibull Handbook by Dr. Robert Abernethy by Dr. Robert Abernethy
All analysis are created with the WinSmithWeibull / Visual All analysis are created with the WinSmithWeibull / Visual
Software Software
Handbook + tutorial + Software is available as a Handbook + tutorial + Software is available as a self self- -study packet. study packet.
Public Public Weibull Reliability Engineering Workshops are given in the Weibull Reliability Engineering Workshops are given in the
Netherlands (PATO) and the USA. Netherlands (PATO) and the USA.
Private Private Workshops are delivered in the EU by Workshops are delivered in the EU by Weibull.nl Weibull.nl The The
workshop can be tailored to the customers needs, are less workshop can be tailored to the customers needs, are less
expensive and are delivered on site. expensive and are delivered on site.
All workshops INCLUDE the Handbook and the Software plus full All workshops INCLUDE the Handbook and the Software plus full
personal license for every student, and will make a novice to a personal license for every student, and will make a novice to a
full Weibull Engineer. full Weibull Engineer.
Detailed info on Detailed info on www.weibull.nl www.weibull.nl
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PLOT Seminar 2008
Thank you for your attention
Ing. Ronald Schop Ing. Ronald Schop
Weibull: Reliability Engineering Weibull: Reliability Engineering
www.weibull.nl www.weibull.nl