Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
CHALLENGES
Chongqing Kang
Professor
Department of Electrical Engineering
Tsinghua University
China
Thomas Key
Senior Technical Executive
Electric Power Research Institute EPRI
USA
Solutions for Integrating Renewables
Solutions for Integrating Renewables Jacob Klimstra
Table of Contents:
Foreword............................................................................................................................................... 8
Note to the reader............................................................................................................................... 9
Appendix 1.......................................................................................................................................172
Appendix 2.......................................................................................................................................176
Biograph............................................................................................................................................182
References........................................................................................................................................183
Glossary............................................................................................................................................185
Foreword
Hans ten Berge
Secretary General of Eurelectric
Europe's electricity markets are changing. Historically, electricity markets were based on genera-
tion capacity with comparatively low fixed costs and high variable (fossil) fuel costs. But the ratio
of variable and fixed costs is shifting, as renewable generation based on solar and wind with little
to no variable cost increasingly enters the market.
Despite technological advances and efficiency gains, even the most modern, state-of-the-art
fossil fuel capacity is finding it increasingly difficult to compete in a market where subsidised
capacity is able to generate at zero variable cost. Yet firm capacity will be needed to back up
variable generation. In this context, many argue the current market environment is no longer
fit for purpose.
The penetration of low-carbon, intermittent, generation capacity is a positive step towards
less carbon-intensive electricity systems. However, the change in generation portfolios does
pose a number of challenges for the markets. How do we ensure that sufficient capacity is
available when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine? Currently subsidy schemes
remove variable renewable capacity from market price signals. This cannot and should not be a
long-term option – for any type of electricity generation.
This is no academic debate. Rather, the European electricity industry is already feeling
the effects of the recent changes on the ground. Companies have to mothball recently built
gas plants, for instance, or put investment projects on hold. The unfavourable market condi-
tions are also discouraging external investors from putting their money into the electricity
sector. Meanwhile, policy support costs, for instance for renewables or energy efficiency, are
increasing the price that end customers pay for their electricity.
In short: the challenges are big and the solutions are as yet unclear. A fresh look at market
design and at a 'smarter' energy system in general is needed. This book contributes to that dis-
cussion, with a particular focus on the effects for generators. In describing and analysing the
current environment and the way that some of the challenges can be addressed, it addresses
key concerns of the European – and global – electricity industry today.
Note to the reader
Jacob Klimstra
Many readers of this book have to make important decisions about electrical energy supply in
different regions. Electricity is crucial for creating wealth and comfort in a modern society. With
ever-growing demand for electrical energy, its generation has a huge impact on global fuel con-
sumption and the related emissions. This demand is expected to double over the next twenty years
or so.
During the past hundred years, scientists and engineers have acquired a thorough knowl-
edge of the power supply system. Modern power plants achieve high fuel efficiencies, and
their emissions have been drastically reduced. Excellent transmission and distribution systems
ensure a high degree of reliability in the power supply to consumers. However, measures need
to be taken to make the electricity supply more sustainable. Ultimately, the depletion of fossil
fuels will occur and the issue of global warming from greenhouse gases cannot be neglected.
Therefore, the power sector has to adjust accordingly and find a new path. Decisions made
now will have a long-term impact and optimum solutions have to be chosen.
The purpose of this book is to explain the challenges arising from the advent of a large
volume of intermittent renewable energy sources. In addition, innovative solutions are offered
for keeping the power supply system reliable and affordable. The book also discusses the effects
of renewable energy on the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour. Low costs are very important
since energy is so intertwined with the economy – any increase in the price of electricity has a
significant impact on the cost of products and services.
Power systems are not based on feelings and opinions, but on scientific and technical facts.
Therefore, some mathematics and physics are presented in this book. Nevertheless, readers
without a technical background should also be able to understand the issues displayed.
Writing this book took much more effort than initially expected. Large levels of intermit-
tent power sources in a system have an impact on the requirements for contingency reserves,
on balancing electricity production and demand, on supplying reactive power and on costs.
This required searching for actual data on the output of solar panels and wind turbines, in
combination with actual power demand patterns. Fortunately, most European and USA-based
transmission system operators make the necessary information available on the internet,
although often heavy number crunching was required to transform this data into a workable
format. Also, the International Energy Agency always provides useful information. Yet, this
book does not pretend to cover every aspect of the issues at stake. Hopefully it helps the reader
to gain more insight into the matter and serve towards achieving the best solutions.
I am indebted to Wärtsilä for offering the possibility to write this book. The continuous
support from a number of co-workers during its preparation is highly appreciated. In alpha-
betical order, I would particularly like to mention Christian Hultholm, Jaime Lopez, Jiipee
Mattila, Jussi Laitinen, Kärt Aavik, Kenneth Engblom, Kimi Arima, Mats Östman, Niklas
Wägar and Svante Bethlehem. I am especially grateful to my wife Anna Martha who allowed
me to dedicate so much time to writing of this book.
1 How to secure the
electricity supply in a
changing world
The economy is largely built on a reliable supply of cheap electricity. A challenge
is to keep the supply system stable and affordable with the rapid expansion of
intermittent renewable energy sources. The new system cannot just be built on
top of the old one. To make the integration successful and to ensure prosperity in
the future, new technical solutions and market conditions are needed. Business
as usual is not an option for the power sector.
12 Power supply challenges
30 000
25 000
Europe
20 000
15 000
World average
10 000 China
Latin America
Middle East
5 000
Asia (ex China)
Africa
0
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000
Electricity use per capita per year (kWh)
Figure 1.1. There is a direct relationship between the amount of electrical energy used
(kWh) and wealth levels, as expressed in gross domestic product based on purchasing
power parity (PPP).
appear to offer only very limited possibilities for balancing the supply of electricity
with the demand.
The use of electrical energy is directly linked with economic value, as can be
seen in figure 1.1 In contrast to common belief, the domestic use of electricity in
households is, on a global average, less than a quarter of the total electricity use. The
large remaining portion is consumed by industrial users and by commercial users to
create economic value. Electricity is, therefore, primarily a value creator.
A number of conclusions can be drawn from the relationship between gross
domestic product and electricity use as shown in figure 1.1 Simply said, if the power
supply in Africa would increase by a factor of five, the economy might potentially
also grow by a factor of five and much poverty would disappear. In addition, if North
America would lower the intensity of electricity used in its economy to the European
level, electricity consumption might be lowered by some 20% without losing any
wealth. The use of more efficient appliances, better building insulation, and a large-
scale introduction of LED lighting are expected to contribute to reduced electricity
use in the USA. In Europe, by contrast, the replacing of gas-fuelled heating with
electric heat pumps and the advent of electric vehicles might lead to some increase
in electricity use. China appears to closely follow the global trend line between elec-
tricity use and GDP. The Middle East is clearly an outlier: cheap fuel, hot climate,
and relatively low industrial output result in low GDP creation per unit of electric
14 Power supply challenges
Cost, price and value of electricity Cost, price and value of electricity
for an aluminium smelter for a household
120 120
100 100
Eurocents per kWh
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
Cost Price Value Cost Price Value
Figure 1.4. The densely populated and polluted environment were created in the new
industrial cities during the Industrial Revolution (1760–1840).
for the user. In households, a 2 kW vacuum cleaner has the same power as 40 people
using dustpans and brushes. One hour of vacuum cleaning might cost 0.50 € for the
electricity, but hiring 40 cleaning people instead might cost at least 500 € in wealthy
economies.
The social costs of electricity can cause the real costs to be higher than the sum
of the costs for capital, fuel and operations plus maintenance. Such social costs
include, among other things, the value of the environmental damage caused as a
result of pollution from the fuel production and from the emissions. Subsidies for
mining jobs also have to be included in the social costs. Politicians might claim the
creation of a substantial number of jobs connected with the introduction of renew-
able energy, but such jobs can also be seen, at least partly, as social costs as long as
subsidies dominate the market for renewables. Ultimately, the integral economic
value of a product such as electricity should at least exceed all the costs of making
that product. If the cost of electricity exceeds its value, using electricity will be a
luxury and a burden on the economy, without creating wealth.
Nevertheless, the acceptability of neglecting social costs depends to a large
extent on the actual wealth level of the particular country. When people are starving,
items such as food and water are urgently needed, and in such cases some connected
16 Power supply challenges
Relative voltage
0.5 0.5
0 0
–0.5 –0.5
–1 –1
0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30
Time (ms) Time (ms)
Figure 1.5. A clean 50 Hz sine wave and a sine wave distorted with harmonics.
environmental damage is just taken for granted. The industrial revolution in the 18th
and 19th centuries had destructive effects on the environment, but the resulting
increase in the level of prosperity ultimately released money for repairs and improve-
ments. Enforcing the same environmental standards globally for electricity produc-
tion, regardless of whether it is in emerging economies or in the affluent areas of the
world is, therefore, not fair if the associated costs are high.
While many people use power as a synonym for electrical energy, this book
will distinguish between power and energy. It is scientifically incorrect to state
that a machine or a power plant can produce power, since power is the capacity to
deliver energy. A car can have an engine with a maximum power capacity of 125 kW
(kilowatts), but as long as the engine is not running, no energy is sent to the wheels.
Driving the car for one hour at full power means that the engine delivers an amount
of energy equalling 125 kW ∙ 1 h = 125 kWh (kilowatt-hours). An electric power sta-
tion of 360 MW (megawatts) constantly running at full output during 4380 hours,
equalling half a year, produces 360 ∙ 4380 = 1576800 MWh (megawatt-hours), or
almost 1.6 TWh (terawatt-hours) of electrical energy.
High reliability in supplying quality electricity is obviously important to energy
consumers, who generally require that their need for electric energy is fulfilled at
any time. Failure to supply electricity will at least be a nuisance, and generally also
results in financial losses. Users in commercial and industrial environments expect
a power supply system reliability of at least 99.99%, meaning that the supply fails on
average in total only 53 minutes per year. For applications where a constant avail-
ability of electricity is crucial, uninterruptable power supply systems and backup
generators are common practice. For some applications, such as data centres and
hospital operating theatres, a supply reliability of over 99.999% is required.
A reliable supply of electricity also requires that the voltage and frequency are
maintained within narrow limits. In addition, the delivered voltage should be clean
and not excessively superseded by harmonic or random distortions, i.e. voltage varia-
tions with a frequency other than the basic frequency of 50 Hz or 60 Hz. Distor-
tions are caused by control electronics and by lighting systems such as LEDs. If the
1. How to secure electricity supply in a changing worldy 17
voltage deviates too much in value and shape from the standards, the performance of
the users’ equipment will be detrimentally affected, and the equipment might even
be damaged. Quality electricity means high supply reliability of the proper voltage.
The electricity supply should also be sustainable. The burden imposed on the
environment should be acceptable, while natural resources have to be used as effi-
ciently as possible. Technologies are available nowadays to achieve very low emis-
sions of pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (NOX) and sulphur oxides (SOX). Both
have negative impact on air quality, and cause acidification of water basins and soil.
As an example of emission reductions, the power sector in the USA was respon-
sible for 6.2 Mtonnes of NOX in 1995, but for only 2.2 Mtonnes in 2009, thanks to
exhaust gas cleaning and cleaner fuels. Yet, total fossil fuel consumption in the USA,
meaning oil, gas and coal together, was roughly the same in 2009 as it was in 1995.
Another issue is global warming. Globally, the power sector is responsible for
roughly a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The European Union aims to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by some 85% from the 1990 levels by the year
2050. The power sector should be emitting zero greenhouse gases by that time. To
achieve this, a reduction in energy consumption, the large-scale introduction of
renewable energy sources, and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for fossil fuel
applications are seen as being the major measures. In this context, it is important to
know that power plants are long-term investments with a technical life exceeding 40
years. The EU policy means that newly built power plants that are not prepared for
CCS might face early retirement.
However, an excessively abrupt weaning from fossil fuel usage in order to bring
down CO2 emissions will disrupt the economy. The reason behind this is that per
unit of delivered energy most renewable energy sources are more expensive than
30
NOX and SO2 concentrations in the air
SO2
25
20
(ppb)
15
NOX
10
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Figure 1.6. The substantial decline in average concentrations of NOX and SO2 in the
USA’s ambient air (source EPA).
18 Power supply challenges
fossil fuels. Furthermore, energy sources based on wind, solar radiation, tidal flows,
and wave energy are by nature variable in output.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that just 3.7 %, or
0.8 PWh, of the total global electrical energy demand was derived from renewable
sources in 2010, excluding hydropower. A large part of this is based on biomass, pri-
marily wood. Wood is often used in existing coal-fired power plants via co-firing or
supplementary firing. Burning wood in power stations is heavily subsidized in some
countries, but the positive effect on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is question-
able. Estimates are that forestry activities and the transportation costs involved
might already result in 200 g/kWh in CO2 emissions, i.e. almost the same amount
of CO2 that a natural-gas-fired cogeneration plant emits. If hydropower is included
in the renewables, some 19.7 % of electricity is currently derived from renewable
sources.
The effort required to increase the amount of renewable energy is huge. Inevi-
tably, fossil-based power plants will still be needed for many decades. In any case,
fully abstaining from the use of fossil fuels is difficult, since these energy sources
can easily be stored in large quantities. In particular, natural gas can serve as a ver-
satile, cheap and relatively low-carbon backup battery for balancing the intermittent
electricity supply coming from wind, solar radiation and tidal-flow generators. Nev-
ertheless, fossil fuel resources are ultimately finite. Expectations are that the global
demand for electrical energy will almost double over the coming 20 years. Therefore,
maximum fuel efficiency is required and any wasting and flaring of fuels should be
avoided. The goal should ultimately be to achieve a gradual shift to affordable renew-
able energy sources with mature equipment having sufficient warranties from reliable
manufacturers.
15 000
Power supply (MW)
10 000
5 000
Figure 1.7. An example of the dynamic pattern in the electricity demand in the Tennet
region of Germany (data from Tennet).
holidays, the demand is very low. During this holiday period, strong winds were
prevalent over Germany, resulting in excess electricity that had to be exported to
neighbouring countries for a negative fee of up to 200 €/MWh.
Electricity generators based on renewable energy sources such as wind, sunshine
and tidal flows are generally granted unrestricted feed-in into the electricity grid.
Their output however depends heavily on the weather and the time of day. More-
over, their output is never fully predictable and is sometimes even close to zero.
Figure 1.8 illustrates the variability in output of wind turbines and solar PV panels
in the German 50Hertz TSO (Transmission System Operator) region during week
Others
100 000
Power (MW)
75 000
Wind
5 000
Solar
2 500
0
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Figure 1.8. Wind and solar -based power output, and the remaining supply from other
sources in the German 50Hertz TSO region, week 26, 2012 (cumulative curve, the black
arrows give the extremes for ‘others’).
20 Power supply challenges
26, 2012. Early on Monday, wind turbines generated almost all the power that was
needed. On Thursday morning at 8 am, however, the output from wind and solar
sources was so low that 10.4 GW had to be derived from other sources.
Since electricity transmission and distribution grids have virtually no energy
storage capacity, the production and consumption of electricity have to be precisely
matched. If the driving power for the generators exceeds the electricity consumption
+ system losses, the generators will increase their speed and, simultaneously, the
frequency in the system will go up. Alternatively, if demand is higher than supply,
the frequency will drop. For the system to operate properly, and for many sensitive
applications, the frequency has to remain within narrow limits. Therefore, generators
are equipped with controllers that can correct their output depending upon the devi-
ation from the desired system frequency. Variation in power plant output is therefore
necessary, but it is not economic to run a power plant consisting of a single gener-
ating unit in a wide load range. Technical restrictions also limit a single generator
from having a wide output range. At low loads, the fuel efficiency is low while the
maintenance costs per kWh are high. Therefore, generators are switched off if their
load is below a certain threshold. Conversely, if the generators that are online cannot
meet an increase in demand, additional generators have to be switched on.
With much intermittent renewable capacity in the system, the balancing task of
the fuel-based and hydro-based generators is rapidly increasing. When the sun sets,
the output from photo-voltaic cells (PV) drops to zero, while electricity demand gen-
erally increases. This results in the dispatchable generating capacity having to ramp
up its output significantly. Figure 1.9 gives an example of the rapidly changing output
from all the wind turbines in the German Amprion TSO region during the 24 hours
of April 28, 2012. This illustrates a typical example of the passage of a depression.
Two substantial increases in the wind-power output of up to 1 GW per hour were
2 500
Power output wind turbines
2000
1 500
1.2 GW/hour
(MW)
decline in output
1 000
500
0
0 6 12 18 24
Hours of April 28, 2012
Figure 1.9. Large differences in power output from wind turbines in the German Amp-
rion TSO region on April 28, 2012.
1. How to secure electricity supply in a changing worldy 21
observed. The large decline in wind-power output, from 1.8 GW to 0.6 GW, in the
time span from 11 am to 12 am required a large amount of fast backing-up by power
plants. Even worse situations occur when the wind reaches gale force and wind tur-
bines have to be stopped in order to avoid physical damage. Because of this, backup
power plants have to be increasingly flexible.
Transmission system operators (TSOs) try to introduce Demand Side Manage-
ment (DSM) for balancing. Sometimes, it is called Demand System Response. Typical
electric appliances, such as refrigerators and air-conditioners, can be switched off for
a while. The use of washing machines and laundry dryers can often be postponed to
when the general demand for electricity is dropping. This requires smart appliances
that respond to a signal from the grid operator. Variable pricing of electricity might
also help, and for this smart meters with a momentary tariff indicator are needed. Figure
Nevertheless, such demand management measures can only be part of the 1.10. The
typical elec-
solution to keep the system stable. A huge number of appliances would have to be
tric power of a
controlled to have any noticeable effect. As an example, using DSM to compensate laundry dryer is
for the 1.2 GW decrease in wind turbine output, as shown in Figure 1.9, requires 2.7 kW.
switching off the equivalent of 450000 laundry dryers. A laundry dryer runs on
average for some 100 hours per year. The probability that a laundry dryer is run-
ning at any particular time is, therefore, only 1%. To sum up, it is not expected that
domestic electricity demand can be shifted by more than a few percent through
the use of smart appliances and smart meters. Better DSM opportunities might be
present with industrial users of electricity.
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With an adequate number of such local genera-
tors in a system, these units can also be utilised for frequency control and balancing.
Again, highly flexible power plants with fast ramping rates and short starting and
stopping times will be needed for balancing electricity production and demand.
Faults in the transmission and distribution system cannot be avoided. Trees may
fall on high voltage lines, and icy rain in combination with high winds can damage
the wires. Excavations frequently cause damage to underground cables. Decentral-
ized generation is beneficial in this respect, since it reduces the dependence on a few
distant generators and long power lines. Because of their increased contribution to
electric generating capacity, decentralized generators should also be able to comply
with the grid codes set by transmission and distribution system operators for large
power plants. Being able to ride through a short circuit is an example one of the new
requirements for local generators (see appendix 2).
Transformer
drum
Power
poles
Power
substation
Transmission
substation Transformer
Power
plant
High voltage
transmission lines
Figure 1.11. An integrated power company producing and delivering electricity to end
users.
1. How to secure electricity supply in a changing worldy 23
Transmission
system Large industrial
Competing
operator customers with self
generating
generation
company 2
Distribution system
Subsidised Small industrial
operator
intermittent customers
renewable generation
Commercials
Competing Competing
electricity retailer A electricity retailer B
Households
Competing
electricity retailer C
and distribution system is easy in such circumstances. For this reason some govern-
ments and politicians prefer a situation whereby the electricity supply is fully controlled
by integrated utilities, with perhaps a few independent electricity producers feeding into
the grid.
However, the free-market thinking at the end of the twentieth century advocated
economic liberalisation, with privatisation and deregulation in all segments of all
markets. By having private investors take over the role of the public sector, produc-
tivity was supposed to increase and the costs to consumers would then be reduced.
A power supply run by the public sector was, and often is, considered to be
bureaucratic, ineffective and less customer friendly. Is this truly the case? That is the
big question. Currently, the liberalised and unbundled power sector complains of
permanent interference from policy makers with ever-changing rules and high sub-
sidies for some types of generation, making it difficult to invest in new power plants.
Yet, extensive lobbying continues simultaneously by the different stakeholders for
24 Power supply challenges
getting preferential rules for their typical facility or technology. Constant changing
of the rules creates difficulties for long-term investments.
Power stations have a very long technical life, and transmission and distribution
lines last even longer. This is the reason that some countries, especially in Asia, have
decided not to adopt the liberalised market model, which is generally dominated
by short-term profit making and quarterly results. Moreover, in many countries
with a liberalised electricity market, the government still derives much income by
taxing energy use and by charging value added tax. The ultimate price of electricity
to domestic consumers has, in general, not decreased as a result of the new open
markets.
Grid frequency, voltage levels and reliability all have to be guaranteed, even in
an open electricity market. Therefore, independent transmission system operators
(TSOs) are charged with the control of frequency and voltage, and with setting
rules for maintaining grid stability and supply reliability. TSOs estimate the power
needs for the near future with elaborate prediction models, and use a market
mechanism to ensure that sufficient generating capacity will be available. With
the introduction of much intermittent generating capacity from renewables, the
uncertainty in predicting the output required from non-renewable power plants is
growing. As an example, the large changes in output from wind turbines as shown
in Figure 1.9, were not predicted by the forecasting models, as can be seen from
figure 1.13.
In the simplest open market approach, a power plant is remunerated only for the
energy delivered. The producer that offers the cheapest electricity would be first in
the merit order in a national or regional energy market. In this simple market model,
the TSO requires electricity producers to include all relevant services, including
2 500
Power output wind turbines
2 000
Actual
1 500
(MW)
1 000
Forecast
500
0
0 6 12 18 24
Hours of April 28, 2012
Figure 1.13. An example of a large deviation between the predicted and the actual
power output from wind turbines in the German Amprion TSO region, April 28, 2012.
1. How to secure electricity supply in a changing worldy 25
1
Imbalance (GW)
0.5
–0.5
–1
0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 24:00
Time
50.10
50.08
50.06
50.04
50.02
ƒ (Hz)
50.00
49.98
49.96
June 2003
49.94
June 2006
49.92
49.90
01 0:00
02 0:00
03 0:00
04 0:00
05 0:00
06 0:00
07 0:00
08 0:00
09 0:00
10 0:00
11 0:00
12 0:00
13 0:00
14 0:00
15 0:00
16 0:00
17 0:00
18 0:00
19 0:00
20 0:00
21 0:00
22 0:00
23 0:00
00
0:
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
00
50.05
50.00
49.95
49.90
49.85
Figure 1.14. Examples of imbalances caused by electricity trading (data from KEMA
report 74100846-ETD/SDA 12-00079, Swissgrid and TENNET.
26 Power supply challenges
backup for failing power plants and frequency control in their energy delivery
offering.
In a more extended market model, power plants can be remunerated for the avail-
ability of reserve power and for their capability to achieve fast ramping up or down
of their output. Even factors such as starting up reliability and supply reliability,
might be worth rewarding. Manufacturers of energy storage technologies are aiming
for financial compensation for the balancing capabilities of their products. Apart
from pumped-hydro storage, most technologies for short and medium-term storage
are still under development, and researchers are eager to promote their technologies
to subsidy providers.
Electricity supply markets generally operate by offering energy in fixed time
spans, such as in hourly or even 15 minute intervals. This approach gives rise to
periodic deviations in grid frequency. This is illustrated in figure 1. 14. Frequency
stability has, therefore, decreased since the introduction of open electricity markets.
Each time a trading time span ends, or begins, power plants increase or decrease
their power output. This has to be compensated for by the frequency regulation
capacity of the power plants, which was originally intended for occasional contingen-
cies, such as the loss of a power plant. Sluggishly reacting power plants have diffi-
culty in restoring the grid frequency to within its required range.
In chapter 7, this book will show how a properly selected generating portfolio
in an electricity supply system can improve system stability with reduced costs and
higher reliability. With a proper approach, this stability can even be reached with a
high proportion of intermittent renewable generation in the system. Much intermit-
tent generation inevitably reduces the utilisation factor of the other power plants.
The consequence of a low utilisation factor is higher specific capital costs (€/MWh)
for fuel-based power plants. Low investment costs will, therefore, be a key element
for new power generating capacity.
The shift towards more renewable generation in the system will certainly reduce
fossil fuel consumption. However, the consequent decrease in the utilisation factor of
the other power plants will inevitably increase the capital costs per kWh produced.
Moreover, fuel-based power plants will have to be far more flexible in the future,
with frequent starts and stops and high ramping rates in output.
1.5. Conclusions
A steady growth in electricity use, coinciding with concerns for sustainability, creates
substantial challenges. Policy makers interfere increasingly with markets and use subsi-
dies and levies to achieve their targets. Investors face uncertainty of profitability because
of frequently changing boundary conditions. Dispatchers of power supply systems
have to live with the challenges of variable outputs of renewable energy sources and
the uncertainties from forecasting errors. To compensate for the unpredictability of the
markets and to backup the intermittent output of renewables, a new level of flexibility is
needed in power systems.
2 Balancing the
electricity supply in
case of calamities
Stability in electricity supply systems has to be maintained even during disturbances
such as a major short circuit, generator failure or losing a large load. In keeping the
system stable, the role of rotating inertia is essential. When integrating renewables
with no or low inertia to the system, the balancing becomes more difficult. To
avoid risks of frequency collapses and blackouts, new solutions are needed for the
fuel-based backup generation.
30 Power supply challenges
50.05
50.04
Frequency regulation action
50.03
Grid frequency (Hz)
50.02
Additional dead zone
50.01
Allowed
measurement error
50.00
49.98
49.97
0 60 120 180 240 300
Seconds after 5:00 am on April 10, 2013
Figure 2.2. Example of the rules for frequency control, with an example of actual
frequency variations (frequency data source: TENNET)
plants start to automatically slightly reduce their output settings. Some one hundred
seconds later, the frequency is back within its allowed limits and the control action
of the generators ceases. This frequency regulation action is handled automatically
by the so-called primary reserves. Automatic action is the only option because of the
fast response required to keep the frequency within its narrow band.
The primary control reserves are also known as frequency containment reserves
(FCR). Substantial changes in frequency will occur if a large customer disconnects,
or if a large power station suddenly fails. In modern power supply systems, many
generators are interconnected via the transmission grid. The number of online gener-
ators should be sufficient to ensure that a failure of the largest unit can be absorbed,
to a large extent, by the spare capacity of the other generating units.
2.2. Primary control reserves compensating for the failure of a power plant
It is interesting to analyse what happens when a power plant in an electricity supply
system fails. To simplify such an analysis, we presume a supply system with ten power
plants of the same power capacity. Each of the ten power plants has a nominal power
capacity of 500 MW, and they are all running at 90% of their capacity to provide 10% of
primary control reserves. That would, at least in theory, be sufficient to compensate for
a failure of one of the ten power plants. Nominal power means the nameplate power of
the generating unit, while nominal speed means the generating unit’s normal amount of
revolutions per minute. In this example, the electricity demand that the ten power plants
32 Power supply challenges
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Transmission lines
Demand by customers
Figure 2.3. Ten power plants initially supplying the required electricity demand when
one of them, number 7, fails.
supply amounts to 90% of 10 · 500 MW = 4500 MW. It will now be shown what hap-
pens if, for example, power plant number 7 suddenly fails and the system immediately
lacks 450 MW of the required power supply. This example may appear to be somewhat
exaggerated since a sudden loss of 10% of the dispatchable generation is not common.
However, with much renewable capacity in a system, such occurrences are becoming
increasingly realistic. In addition, the effects of unbalance in a system can be clearly
shown with this example.
After the failure of one plant, the nine remaining power plants cannot instanta-
neously ramp up the power output of the machines that drive the generators from the
initial 450 MW to the newly required 500 MW in order to supply the total system
demand of 4500 MW. Power plants need some time to react to a newly desired
output value. Therefore, if no energy was available from the rotating mass (the rota-
tional inertia) in the system, the unbalance would immediately stop all generators
with a resulting blackout. The amount of energy stored in a rotating generating set
Figure 2.4. The energy stored within the power supply system as a result of the fly-
wheel effect of the spinning generating units. (f = rotational speed in revolutions per
second, Ir = moment of inertia).
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 33
is linearly proportional with the moment of inertia I, and the square of the running
speed n. Inertia is a property characterising the flywheel effect of the rotating mass.
The running speed n gives the number of revolutions per minute of the generator
rotor. In a 50 Hz system, a generator with a single pole pair runs at 3000 rpm. In
this case, the frequency f equals n/60.
The amount of energy Er stored in the rotating inertia of a generating set is gen-
erally expressed as a fraction of the nominal power capacity Pnominal of that generating
set. This fraction is called the inertia constant τI of a generating set:
Er ½.Ir .ω2 Ir
τI= = =½. (2πf)2 . Equation 2.1
Pnominal Pnominal Pnominal
The dimension τI of the inertia constant is the same as that of time, and is
expressed in joule/watt = J/(J/s) = s (second). The inertia constant of a large gen-
erating unit lies in the range between 5 and 10 s. This means that when a 500 MW
generating unit is running at its nominal speed, its rotating parts have 2500 MJ
of rotational energy in the case of a τI of 5 s, and 5000 MJ for a τI of 10 s. This is
also the amount of energy that has to be transferred to the rotating parts when the
generating unit is started up and accelerated to its nominal speed. If the 5000 MJ of
energy during this acceleration is supplied to the rotating inertia with a machine that
uses natural gas for fuel, we can calculate the amount of gas required. If the fuel effi-
ciency of the driving machine is 40% and the natural gas has a lower heating value
of 36 MJ/m3, it requires 5000/36 · 100/40) · 350 m3 of gas to bring the rotor up to
nominal speed. Such an amount of gas provides enough energy to heat up 35000
litres of water from 20 °C to 100 °C, for preparing 280000 cups of tea. A cluster of
3000 car batteries can also deliver the required amount of energy. This illustrates
that although the energy stored in the rotating inertia of a generating set is not elec-
trical, it is nevertheless an impressive amount of energy.
Equation 2.1 reveals that the rotational energy of the generating set is propor-
tional with the square of the instantaneous running speed. This means that at higher
speeds, there is much more energy in the inertia than at lower speeds. Therefore, the
frequency will not decrease linearly with time if there is a fixed unbalance between
the power supply to the generator and the generator load. Figure 2.5 shows how the
frequency of the grid served by the nine remaining generators (Figure 2.3) decreases
if each generator receives 450 MW from its prime mover while the combined load
remains 4500 MW. Each of the nine running generators should receive 500 MW to
avoid an unbalance. Therefore, each generating unit ‘feels’ a power supply deficit of
50 MW. The frequency curve in Figure 2.5 is a representation of equation 2.2. The
derivation of equation 2.2 requires some considerable mathematical manipulation.
The interested reader can find the derivation of equation 2.2 in Appendix 1.
ΔP f 2nominal
f(t)= √(f 2nominal + . . t) Equation 2.2.
Pnominal τi
50
Grid frequency (Hz)
40
30
20
10
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (seconds)
Figure 2.5. The decline in speed for a generator where the generator load constantly
exceeds its driving shaft power by 50 MW (inertia constant τI = 10 s, constant load pre-
sumed).
The drop in frequency during the very first seconds following a major contin-
gency event is a perfect indicator of the amount of unbalance. In the beginning, the
rotating frequency of the generator set is still very close to the nominal frequency
(50 Hz or 60 Hz) and the approximation can, therefore, be made that the initial drop
in frequency per unit of time df/dt equals:
df ΔP
=
dt 2τi Pnominal f nominal Equation 2.3.
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 35
50.5
Frequency (Hz)
50
49.5
49
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Time (seconds)
Figure 2.6. A close-up of the first 4 seconds of figure 2.5; the thick brown line gives
the decline in grid frequency for a 10% unbalance in the system due to the tripping of a
power plant (τI = 10 s).
nominal frequency. In areas with minor industrial activities, the self-regulating power of
the grid will be close to zero.
The positive effect of self-regulating power should not be overestimated. If
the grid frequency drops from the desired value of 50 Hz to 49.8 Hz, the self-reg-
ulating power lowers demand by only 0.2 · 1% = 0.2%. This 0.2% is only a 9 MW
reduction from the 4500 MW total load in our ten generator system example. If,
however, the grid frequency would drop from 50 Hz all the way down to 40 Hz,
the decrease in electricity demand because of the self-regulating power would be
10 Hz · 1% / Hz = 10%, i.e. 450 MW in our example. This renders a 50 MW reduc-
tion in demand for each of the nine generators that remained online following the
trip of one machine. Consequently, at a frequency of 40 Hz, generation and demand
are matched again if the nine power plants keep their power output setting at the
initial 450 MW. In reality, it will be difficult for the generators to keep their power
output constant when the frequency decreases so much. The power output of the
prime mover that drives the generator is proportional with the product of torque
M and running speed n. If the grid frequency decreases from 50 Hz to 40 Hz, the
driving torque M has to increase by a factor of 50/40 = 1.25 in order to deliver the
same power to the generator. This can easily result in mechanical overload. At the
same time, turbo machinery in particular is burdened with natural frequencies of the
rotor system that limit its range in running speeds. Generators suffer when running
at low frequencies because of the so-called magnetic over fluxing, which results in
possibly harmful overheating. In practice, the self-regulating power of a grid hardly
offers any help in balancing.
50
Grid frequency (Hz)
40
Load with self regulation
30
20
Fixed load
10
0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Time (seconds)
Figure 2.7. Mitigation of the decrease in frequency due to self regulation of grid load in
the case of a 50 MW initial unbalance between generator output and load.
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 37
in which:
Pgenerator nominal
Pregulating = Equation 2.6.
sgenerator . fnominal
The droop value setting of the control system lies generally within a range of 2 to
8%. A droop sgenerator of 4% means, for instance, that the power output of the gener-
ator increases from 0% to 100% if the frequency decreases by 4%, say from 50 Hz to
48 Hz. The relationship between output change and frequency deviation is linear. In
measurement and control technology language, this is called a proportional action,
indicated with the letter P. It means that the extra power from the primary control
reserves is only present as long as the deviation from the desired nominal frequency
exists.
from a 500 MW generator running at 250 MW, and acting as a primary reserve, varies
with frequency for three different droop settings. For a grid frequency of exactly 50Hz,
the output of the generator equals 250 MW. When the grid frequency decreases, the
output from the generator will increase linearly along with it. Conversely, if the grid
frequency increases, the output from the generator will decrease by following the droop
line. Figure 2.8 reveals that the lower the droop percentage is, the heftier the reaction of
the generator will be on deviations from the nominal grid frequency.
At first sight, opting for a very low droop value might be the best option to keep
the grid frequency as close as possible to the desired 50 Hz. However, if the droop is
very small, meaning that the gain factor is very high, the primary reserves may react
fiercely to deviations in frequency. This results in extra wear of the machinery, while
increasing the risk of oscillations and system instability. Some traditional power
plants suffer heavily from rapid changes in output. High-temperature steam boilers
can experience cavitation and thermal shock during sudden load changes. Moreover,
all generators acting as primary control reserves do not have the same dynamic prop-
erties in practice. Each unit has its own delay time when reacting to an increase in
the output set point, and each unit will have its own typical ramp up rate. Until now,
a close to stepwise increase in output was not possible. Nevertheless, some modern
generating techniques can react much faster than traditional units. The typical ramp
up rate for primary control reserves in the Continental Europe synchronous area
system is 100% within 30 seconds (Figure 2.9). After a short delay of, say 2 seconds,
the primary control reserves are supposed to increase their output at a fixed rate.
400
Generator output (MW)
300
200
100
0
48.0 48.5 49.0 49.5 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.5 52.0
Grid frequency (Hz)
Figure 2.8. Output from a 500 MW generator acting as a primary control reserve, run-
ning at 250 MW at a nominal grid frequency of 50 Hz, with three different droop settings.
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 39
100
Output primary reserves (%)
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time after ramping up command (seconds)
Let us now return to our example of the electricity supply system illustrated in
Figure 2.3, whereby ten identical generators were each carrying a load of 450 MW
when suddenly one generator tripped. Without any action being taken with respect
to the set point of the prime mover that drives each generator, the grid frequency
would drop to 40 Hz, as shown in Figure 2.7. However, if each of the nine remaining
generators is also used partly for primary frequency control, each with a droop of 4%
as depicted in Figure 2.10, the grid frequency will not decrease all the way down to
40 Hz. Due to the droop setting, the set point for full output of each power plant will
be reached already at a grid frequency of 49.8Hz, as shown in Figure 2.10. Figure 2.6
reveals that after the contingency of one failing power plant, this 49.8 Hz will already
be reached in about 0.5 seconds after the trip of power plant number 7. Therefore,
the new set point that asks for full output of the generators can be presumed to be
present almost immediately after the loss of one of the ten generators in the system
of our example.
However, notwithstanding the quick change in their set points, the nine power
plants that use their additional available capacity for primary control reserves will
not immediately reach their full output. If we presume that the output of these
power plants follow the prescribed ramping up as shown in Figure 2.9, the load from
the grid and the power supplied to the generators will equal each other after about
25 seconds (see Figure 2.11). At that point, the grid frequency reaches its minimum.
According to Figure 2.9, the additional 50 MW needed per generator that was
lost when one of the original ten generators tripped is fully available from the pri-
mary reserves after 30 seconds. This 50 MW per generator is slightly more than the
grid load requires for staying balanced at the mentioned minimum in frequency. This
is because of the reduction in load created by the self-regulating power. The excess
40 Power supply challenges
energy delivered is then used to accelerate again the rotating masses, the ‘flywheels’,
in the system. Nevertheless, the nominal 50 Hz frequency cannot be reached with
primary control reserves following a droop line. In our example, as soon as the grid
frequency exceeds 49.8 Hz, the output of the primary reserves once again decreases
(see Figure 2.10). That would create another mismatch between power supply and
load. Therefore, a deviation between the actual frequency and the nominal grid
frequency of slightly less than 0.2 Hz will remain where only primary control
reserves are used to restore balance. This deviation between the frequency ultimately
reached with the help of primary reserves and the desired frequency of 50.000 Hz
is called the quasi steady state deviation. Transmission system operators define the
permissible minimum and maximum of this deviation. Extra capacity, the so-called
secondary control reserve, is needed for providing the extra power in the system so
as to restore the grid frequency to the required narrow band around the nominal
frequency.
As mentioned earlier, this narrow frequency band equals only +/– 20 mHz
around 50 Hz in the Continental Europe synchronous area. The application of sec-
ondary control reserves increases the frequency further, so that the primary reserves
can reduce their output and return to their initial load setting at 50 Hz. In other
words, secondary reserves release the primary reserves from their duty. This enables
primary reserves to be ready for the next major occurrence, such as the sudden loss
of a generator or the losing or receiving of a large load.
The previous example whereby primary control reserves equalled exactly the
amount of lost generating capacity, is obviously an exception. In reality, the power
400
Generator output (MW)
300
200
100
0
48.0 48.5 49.0 49.5 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.5 52.0
Grid frequency (Hz)
Figure 2.10. The droop function of a generator having a 500 MW nominal power, again
with a droop setting of 4%, but now running at 450 MW at 50 Hz.
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 41
Figure 2.11. Parts of Manhattan were left in the dark after hurricane Sandy in 2012.
regulating power sensitivity of the load of 1% per Hz. This means that power demand
and power supply are fully matched again at 46 Hz so that the frequency will not
decrease further.
The output of the primary reserves continues to increase after the minimum in
frequency has been reached. This additional power supply will again accelerate the
inertia. This will go faster for an inertia constant of 5 s than for one of 10 s, since
less energy is needed to bring the rotors back to nominal speed in case of lower
inertia. The deep dip in frequency observed for the lower inertia value is unaccept-
50
Grid frequency (Hz)
49
48
47
46
45
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Time (seconds)
Figure 2.12. The effect of lowering the inertia constant on the frequency dip in case of
a calamity (further conditions as in Figure 2.11.).
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 43
able is most cases. If it is not possible to increase the inertia, the amount of primary
reserves has to be increased or the primary reserves have to be made faster with a
smaller initial delay.
49.5
deviation caused by a contingency. If the
Only 15 s response
relative amount of the system’s rotating 49 time, minimum
inertia decreases, such as when much primary reserves
(% of nominal)
Power output
Figure 2.15 shows the response of a Industrial gas turbine
90 combined cycle
number of different power generating
Steam-based
techniques to a stepwise change in 85 power plant
desired output. The data are based on
80
best-in-class machines. Less agile types
might be slower by more than a factor of 75
two. The response curve for the combus- 0 10 20 30
tion-engine-driven power plant applies Time (seconds)
at part-load, adapt their output automatically when the grid frequency changes since
their desired output is determined by the grid frequency via their droop curve. Primary
reserves are preferably allocated in such a way that a control area can resolve a large part
of its own contingencies.
It is clear that opting for just a few large power plants to supply the required
electricity for an area is not ideal. In a system having a large number of generators in
a single control area, it is easier to compensate for the failure of one generator with
the other generators. The output of an individual unit is then just a small fraction of
the combined output. With a large number of generators active as primary reserves,
there is also no need to operate them at a relatively low load. In addition, the failure
of one of them has only a minor effect on the combined reserve capacity. In other
words, multiple generators in a system improve the reliability of primary reserves
and reduce the impact of a failing unit.
Fast responding primary reserves can compensate for less rotating inertia
without the need of having more primary reserves available. Without fast primary
reserves, more power plant capacity has to operate at part-load, i.e. below its rated
output. Operating at part-load increases the fuel consumption (MJ/kWh), as well as
the capital and maintenance costs per kWh (Figure 2.17). Running a generating unit
at 50% load doubles the maintenance and capital costs per kWh.
8.0 4.5
Specific capital + maintenance
Specific fuel consumption
7.5 4.0
3.5
costs (cts/kWh)
7.0
(Mj/kWh)
6.5 3.0
6.0 2.5
5.5 2.0
5.0 1.5
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Load (MW)
Figure 2.17. Example of fuel consumption, and capital and maintenance costs of a
400 MW power plant according to load.
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 47
have been fully activated, no spare frequency control capacity is available for another
tripping power plant or a loss of major load. The risk of another power plant failing
or load disturbances taking place is always higher during a major event in the system
than when everything is running smoothly. Secondly, due to the droop characteristic
of the deployed primary reserves, a deviation from the nominal frequency of 50 Hz
will remain. Activation of the secondary control reserves will supply extra power to the
system so that the grid frequency can return to its nominal value. As a consequence,
the droop-based primary control reserves will automatically return to their original set
point and be released from their action until the next disturbance occurs.
In the Continental Europe synchronous area, the secondary control reserves
in the relevant control area automatically commence delivering output within 30
seconds following a major disturbing occurrence. This happens when the primary
control reserves are fully active. After 15 minutes, the full capacity of the secondary
control reserves has to deliver its power to the system. This approach is illustrated
in figure 2.18. Until recently, such a short deployment time required all secondary
control reserves to be spinning all the time. Large power plants can never provide
full output from standstill within 15 minutes. As a consequence, secondary reserves
based on such power plants would always be running at a level below their nominal
output. This again causes higher fuel consumption and higher capital and operational
costs.
Secondary reserves
15 min
Delay
30 sec
Ramp up
50.000 Hz
reference Δf Dead band
30 sec Power
+
– output
Ramp up
Actual grid
frequency
f + Other
– generators
ΔP ΔP
System
dynamics
System
load + loss
Figure 2.18. A possible setup for primary control reserves and secondary control reserves in the system.
48 Power supply challenges
(% of nominal value)
80
chronous area.
A quick-starting power plant has to 60
be constantly preheated to provide the 40
fast performance shown in figure 2.19.
However, such power plants generally 20
consist of multiple identical generators 0
operating in parallel. Running one of 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420
the multiple units online for electrical Time from start command (seconds)
energy production releases sufficient
heat to keep at least 30 identical Figure 2.19. The fast ramping up in power output from
generating units preheated. Another standstill to full load of a smart power generator.
advantage of having multiple secondary
control reserve units in parallel is the low risk of losing much allocated reserve
capacity. In case a single unit fails, only a fraction of the allocated power for sec-
ondary reserves is lost.
In some control areas in competitive markets, power plant operators can bid in
the ahead markets for offering secondary reserves. The power plants offering the
lowest price for their service will normally be selected to provide the reserves. In
other systems, the power balance in the relevant area is continuously measured with
energy flow meters, and secondary balancing is activated by a computerised control
system that sends out set-point changes to selected power plants. In these cases, fast
non-spinning secondary reserves also offer substantial advantages. Non-spinning
means using no fuel, suffering no wear, and producing no emissions.
Tertiary control reserves are activated to free the secondary reserves for the
next contingency. This can be done automatically (directly activated) or manually
(schedule activated) by the transmission system operator. Part of the tertiary control
reserves can be non-spinning. This is possible when the power plant has the rapid
response capability as depicted in figure 2.19.
2. Balancing the electricity supply in case of calamities 49
Combined output
100
Primary reserves
80
Scheduled tertiary
Power output reserves
reserves
(% of peak output of
primary reserves)
60
Secondary
reserves
40
Direct tertiary
reserves
20
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (minutes)
Figure 2.20 Example of the sequence in utilising primary, secondary, and tertiary control
reserves following a major occurrence.
2.4. Conclusions
This chapter has explained the delicate balance between electricity generation and
demand and the consequences of rapid disturbances in the system. Rotating inertia and
the dedicated control reserves play an important role in keeping the system balanced.
With the introduction of a substantial amount of renewable electricity sources, bal-
ancing becomes more challenging. Agile, fast-reacting generators appear to offer excel-
lent balancing duties during contingencies, even in the case of less inertia and reserve
capacity in the system.
3 Balancing power
demand and supply
when conditions
change
The demand for power changes continuously according to weather and human
behaviour. Therefore, the combined output from electricity generators in a
synchronous system has to vary all the time to match the changing demand. The
introduction of variable wind and solar energy creates additional dynamics in
matching power demand and supply. Country cases are used in this chapter to
explain the challenges of this balancing act.
52 Power supply challenges
15 000
Hourly data power demand Finland
12 500
Midsummer
celebration
10 000
(MW)
7 500
5 000
2 500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Week numbers year 2012
Figure 3.1. Hourly data of electric power demand in Finland for the year 2012 (hourly data from ENTSO-E).
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 53
13.4 MWh. By comparison, the world average in annual electricity consumption per
capita is only 2.9 MWh.
Figure 3.1 shows how electricity demand in Finland varied during the year 2012.
The curve is blurred because of daily variations in electricity demand. An anomaly in
the curve is the deep dip in power demand in the last week of June. This is caused by
the famous Midsummer Day celebrations. Only pubs, restaurants, and hospitals are
functioning then. At the end of the year, between Christmas and the New Year, most
industrial and commercial activities are also down. At that time of the year, Finns are
typically all eating ham and drinking glögi, a spicy glühwein (mulled wine). Figure 3.1
reveals that Finland had a minimum electricity demand of about 6.5 GW in 2012.
Finland has a policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing
the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. The plan is to reduce greenhouse emissions
by 80% of the 1990 level by the year 2050. Biomass, wind power and geothermal
heat should be the major sources of renewable energy. Because of the high baseload
level, the Finnish authorities have decided to support building additional nuclear
power plants. Nuclear power will replace some old coal-fired power plants and pro-
vide additional capacity to satisfy the growing demand for electricity. Nuclear power
plants have low fuel costs and very low carbon dioxide emissions. The high invest-
ment costs, however, require running them for a large part of the time at full output.
The Olkiluoto 3 power plant, which has been under construction since 2005, will
have a power capacity of 1600 MW and the planned Olkiluoto 4 plant a capacity of
between 1000 and 1800 MW. The discussions about primary and secondary reserves
in Chapter 2 made clear that installing such large power plants requires a substantial
amount of primary, secondary and tertiary control reserves for maintaining stability
in case of a trip.
The hourly data of electric power demand in Finland, as shown in Figure 3.1 is
plotted in a distribution curve in figure 3.2. Such a distribution curve is based on a
rearranged data series, starting with the highest value and ending with the lowest. It
gives a good indication as to what fraction of the total time a certain power demand
is required. Apparently, the power demand was higher than 6.5 GW for 99% of the
time. Demand exceeded 10 GW for only 40% of the time. Peaks in demand higher
than 12 GW occurred only 10% of the time. Therefore, power plants responsible for
generating such peaks in demand will have a very low utilisation factor. A utilisation
factor of 1 (= 100%) means that the power plant is producing its nominal output
continuously throughout the year. In practice, however, power plants require main-
tenance and they sometimes trip. In addition, they have to provide reserve capacity.
A utilisation factor of 0.9 for a baseload power plant is, therefore, already quite good.
The short-duration absolute peak in demand from 14.0 GW to 14.5 GW shown in
Figure 3.2 occurs only in the case of extremely cold weather. The capital costs per
kWh of power plants providing such a peak are very high. It would be better to offer
Finns a good price for reducing demand during very cold days. Maximising the use
of available wood burners and avoiding heating electric saunas would reduce elec-
tricity consumption during spells of very cold weather.
54 Power supply challenges
15 000
Distribution curve power demand
7 500
Base load 6.5 GW 99% of the time
5 000
2 500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of the time, year 2012
Figure 3.2. Power demand in Finland distributed over the 8784 hours of the year 2012,
with maximum demand on the left-hand side and minimum demand on the right.
Year 2012
February 3
350 35
Tmax (deg C)
Finland daily electricity use (GWh)
300 25
250 15
200 5
Electricity use
150 –5
100 –15
Tmin (deg C)
50 –25
0 –35
1 29 57 85 113 141 169 197 225 253 281 309 337 365
Figure 3.3. Daily electricity use and daily temperatures in Finland in 2012.
in Figure 3.3. The relationship proves to be quite significant, witness the high cor-
relation coefficient of 0.85. It shows that a variation of between 175 and 325 GWh
in the daily electricity consumption in Finland relates to the weather. The peculiar
circular deviation in Figure 3.4 at the minimum electricity consumption of close to
150 GWh per day is again caused by the Midsummer celebrations.
Figure 3.5 illustrates the electricity demand pattern based on the hourly data
from the week commencing October 8, 2012, when the weather was still not
extremely cold and the holiday season
is over. The baseload of about 8 GW
determines the bulk of demand during
Finland daily electricity use (GWh)
350
that whole week, confirming that con-
300
tinuous industrial activities dominate
electricity use. Comparing the pattern 250
Black trend line
for week days with that of weekends 200 y = –3.6804x + 250.61
R = 0.8529 2
10 000
baseload. The daily variations in elec-
8 000
tricity demand are about 10% of the
(MW)
6 000
average demand. Daily cycling in demand
is quite predictable and the ramping up 4 000
and ramping down can be easily covered 2 000
by early preparation of the power plants.
0
Finland has about 3.3 GW of hydropower, Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su
which helps in shaving the peaks and in
ramping electricity production up and
Figure 3.5. Electric power demand in Finland during the
down.
week of October 8–14, 2012 (hourly data from ENTSO-E).
power 10 000
8 000
(MW)
power. A target of between 5.5 and 6.3 GWh is mentioned in the Irish Power plant capacity Finland in
Gate 3 project for covering ultimately 40% of the electricity demand 2010: 17 GW
from renewables by the year 2040. The country has some 4.5 million
inhabitants and an electricity consumption of 4.5 MWh per capita. Renewables
and peat
Figure 3.8 shows that the dynamics in electricity demand in Ireland 15%
are proportionally much higher than those in Finland. This is typical Fossil
Nuclear
for a service-based economy. The baseload is only about 2 GW, com- 16% fuels
49%
pared with at least 7 GW in Finland. The daily variations in demand are
also close to 2 GW, about the same as in Finland. The peaks and val- Hydro
leys in electricity demand appear to follow a well defined pattern. The 20%
only anomaly, i.e. the dip in demand at the end of the year, is apparently
caused by Christmas and the related holiday week.
The distribution curve of power demand in Ireland (Figure 3.9) Figure 3.7. Finland has a substantial
shows that the peak between 4 GW and 4.6 GW occurs for less than amount of hydropower, which creates
2.5% of the time and is, therefore, very uneconomic from a view- flexibility.
point of capital costs for the installed generating capacity. A base
demand of almost 2 GW means that having just a few large power plants to cover
this baseload creates a high risk of blackouts in case of a calamity. Figure 3.10 gives
the power plant portfolio in Ireland for the year 2010. The total generating capacity
slightly exceeds 6.2 GW, which is enough to cover the maximum demand. Seven
gas-fired power plants dominate the portfolio. The largest power plant has a capacity
of 463 MW. If that one trips during the night and its full output is lost, about a
quarter of the 2 GW online generating capacity disappears. It is close to impossible
to correct such a contingency with primary control reserves. The addition of flexible
power plants based on multiple units in parallel with an intrinsically quick response
to demand changes might offer a solution here.
Power demand in Ireland is clearly seasonal, with the dark seasons requiring more
power than when there is more light. Home heating in Ireland is traditionally based
5 000
Power demand Ireland (MW)
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Weeks year 2012
Figure 3.8. Power demand in the Republic of Ireland in 2012 (data from Eirgrid)
58 Power supply challenges
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Heavy Fuel Oil
Heavy Fuel Oil
Heavy Fuel Oil
Distillate Oil
Distillate Oil
Distillate Oil
Distillate Oil
Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Peat Gas Gas Peat Gas Coal Coal Coal Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Peat Gas
Reeks1 258 90 90 90 432 403 118 111 54 54 108 342 400 91 85 283 283 283 163 104 463 52 52 81 81 54 54 241 241 52 52 384 137 445
Figure 3.10. The fuel-based power plant portfolio in Ireland (year 2010).
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 59
5 000
wind power in the summer time. The total
4 000
amount of electricity produced by the
combined windmills during the leap year 3 000
2012 was 4.1 PWh. A leap year has 8 784 2 000
hours and the average installed wind tur-
1 000
bine capacity was 1650 MW. This renders
a capacity factor of 4100000 MWh/(1 650 0
MW · 8784 h) = 0.28, or 28%. This is quite
good for wind energy. In comparison, the Figure 3.12. The electricity demand pattern in Ireland from
capacity factor of the German wind parks Monday February 27 to Sunday March 4, 2012.
was just 17.5% in 2012.
Total electricity demand in Ireland
Ireland power demand (MW)
1 250
1 000
(MW)
750
500
250
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Weeks of 2012
Figure 3.14. The combined output from wind turbines in Ireland during 2012 (data from
Eirgrid).
fuel-based capacity was largely responsible for covering demand during that fraction
of the time. The output from wind turbines exceeded 1 000 MW for only 10% of the
time, or 36 days.
The installed fuel-based electricity generating capacity in Ireland is 6.2 GW,
which would render a capacity factor of 25 600/(6.2 · 8784) = 47% if the power
plants had to produce the full 25.6 PWh in demand. Because wind produced
4.1 GWh, the power plants delivered only 21.5 GWh. Their actual capacity factor
was therefore 39%. The blue curve in Figure 3.17 shows that due to wind power, the
baseload for the power plants is some 1.5 GW, considerably lower than the 2 GW
Figure 3.15. Ireland plans to double the amount of wind energy by 2020.
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 61
(MW)
decreases by a factor of 47/39 = 1.2. This 750
Power 23% of
means that the capital costs for the power the time < 165 MW
500
plants per kWh produced are 20% higher
250
than in the case of no wind power.
The fact that wind turbines produced 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
16% of the electrical energy needs in Ire- % of the time
land in 2012 does not mean that the fuel
consumption for covering the electricity Figure 3.16. Distribution curve of the output from the com-
needs was 16% lower than if there were bined wind turbines in Ireland during the 8 784 hours of 2012.
no wind power. Because of the volatile
and unpredictable character of wind Ireland 2012: effect of wind power output on
output, fuel-based power plants will, on power plant output distribution
average, run at a relatively lower frac- 5 000
Power demand
would if there were no wind turbines 3 000
in the system. The consequence of this Power plant output
2 000
is higher fuel consumption and higher 1 000
maintenance and operational costs per
0
kWh. The 2012 load-following pattern of 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
the power plants is shown in figure 3.18. % of time
This is a completely different picture than
the power demand curve in Figure 3.8, Figure 3.17. Comparison of the distribution curves of power
since the variability is much higher. Ire- demand and demand minus the contribution from wind turbines.
land’s typical base demand of 2 GW has
translated into a base output of only 1.5 GW from the power plants. Consequently,
many more starts and stops and higher ramping up and ramping down rates occur
for the power plants that provide intermediate and peak load than without wind
power in the system. This variability increases the wear rate of the power plants.
To illustrate the level of increased volatility imposed on power plants due to
wind energy, the change in power demand per half hour and the change in power
supply from the fuel-based generators have been plotted in figure 3.19. At first sight,
the difference between the two diagrams is not so large. Both diagrams are still dom-
inated by the weekly demand patterns. However, one can notice that the maximum
in change rate for the power plants is 450 MW/30 min, while power demand has a
maximum change rate of 350 MW/30 min. Ramping up the electricity supply is in
both cases higher than ramping down. However, since less fuel-based power plant
capacity is online because of the output from wind power, the proportion of volatility
62 Power supply challenges
4 000
3 000
(MW)
2 000
1 000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Weeks of 2012
Figure 3.18. Half-hourly values of the power demand minus the wind power output
during 2012, representing the contribution from non-wind power plants to power demand.
per the level of power plant output is much higher. Nevertheless, deriving just 16%
of the electrical energy from wind power having a capacity factor of 28% does not
create serious balancing problems.
When the output of power plants has to increase 300 MW within a time span of
half an hour, it makes considerable difference when only 1000 MW is online than
when 2000 MW is online. Reserve capacity for contingencies and forecasting errors
will help in ramping up output, but where only little power plant capacity is online
in cases where fast ramping up is needed, this hardly helps. Without wind turbines,
the change in power demand from power plants would never have had ramping up
Power plants
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
January 2012
Figure 3.19. Comparison of the half-hourly change rates in power demand and supply
from the fuel-based power plants (situation year 2012).
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 63
3 000
(MW)
2 000
1 000
0
–1 000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Weeks of 2012
Figure 3.20. Half-hourly values of the calculated power supply from Irish power plants
with double the wind power capacity of 2012.
values higher than 14.5% of the online power-plant capacity per 30 minutes in 2012.
Ramping down would never have been faster than 9.6% of the online power-plant
capacity per 30 minutes. For the wind power capacity in 2012, the power plant
ramping up showed a maximum of 23% of the online power-plant capacity and
ramping down 16.3%. However, for a doubling of wind power, the power plants will
often be further pushed from the grid. In that case, the relative changes in power
requested from them will be high, exceeding 500% of the online capacity. Conse-
quently, a limited amount of wind power in a system is factors easier to accommo-
date than a large fraction.
In the case of a doubling of wind turbine capacity in Ireland compared with that
of 2012, the half-hourly changes in power supply for the fuel-based generators would
occasionally exceed 550 MW. Figure 3.20
illustrates that the backup pattern of the Effect of doubling wind power output on power
fuel-based power plants would be totally plant output distribution
5 000
different from the power demand pattern
shown in figure 3.8. The baseload part 4 000
Power
Power (MW)
MW MW MW max/ % %
average
No wind
power 4588 1624 2917 1.57 0 47
2012 wind
power 4446 913 2450 1.81 16 39
Doubled
2012 wind 4384 –207 1980 2.21 32 32
power
witness figure 3.21. In particular, the relative volatility in output of the fuel-based
power plants will increase and many more starts and stops will be experienced. In
addition, the capacity factor of the existing power plants will decrease further to
32%.
Table 3.1 summarises the effects of wind power on the fuel-based power plants
in Ireland. The three scenarios of no wind turbines, the 2012 installed power of wind
turbines, and a doubling of the 2012 installed power of wind turbines are shown. The
power plant crest factor is the peak load of the power plants divided by their average
load. The crest factor is an indication of the volatility in output that the power plants
experience. The minimum power plant output can never be less than zero; the ‘– 207
MW’ in the third column of table 3.1 only indicates that the wind turbines will occa-
sionally produce more electricity than is requested by demand.
Before the introduction of large levels of wind and solar-based electricity supply,
the conventional power plants in Ireland were generally able to follow demand
because of its high predictability.
Sophisticated models could predict the
load quite well based on historic data 42.23
and weather forecasting. Local winds 40
and sunshine are far harder to predict,
Distribution (%)
The deviations have been arranged in Wind power forecast minus actual wind power (MW)
11 classes of 100 MW each (Figure
3.22). In 42% of the half-hourly data, Figure 3.22. Distribution of differences between day-ahead
the deviations amounted to between +50 forecasted wind power and actual wind-power output in Ireland
MW and –50 MW. For almost 7% of the for 2012 (classes of 100 MW).
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 65
(MW)
capacity has to be reserved to fill the gap. 800
This reserve capacity has to be fast, pro- 600
15 000 Germany NW
10 000 Germany NE
Ireland
5 000
0
31 days of January 2012
Figure 3.24. Interconnecting the European wind turbines does not help to smooth their
electricity production, because atmospheric conditions are often continent-wide.
ancing of demand and production. Fast hydropower and pumped hydro might help
but such facilities are often not present in sufficient levels. Shaving peaks in output
from wind turbines with electrical heaters in hot water boilers might help to some
extent. Another method is to curtail high outputs from wind turbines by yawing and
pitching of the propellers. Yawing means rotating the nacelle away from the position
where it catches most of the wind energy, while pitching means changing the angle
of the blades for the same purpose. Many countries, however, allow renewable energy
sources unrestricted supply into the grid. Ultimately, flexible, agile power stations are
needed for load balancing, for contingency reserves, and for providing reserve power
should the actual wind power deviate from the forecasted value.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Weeks of 2012
Figure 3.28. The daily electricity production from the solar PV panels in the 50Hertz
transmission system operator area in Germany in 2012.
combined output of the PV panels does not deviate excessively from the actual value.
Although the installed PV capacity (peak capacity) in the region must have been close
to 8 GW in week 21, 2013, that value was never reached. The major reason for this is
the non-optimum position of many panels and the presence of clouds in the area.
Since the latitude of the 50Hertz transmission system operator is between 50 and
54 north, solar irradiation from October to February is quite low. Figure 3.28 gives
the daily electrical energy production from the solar panels in that area expressed
in GWh for the 366 days of 2012. The diagram does not represent the actual solar
irradiation since the installed PV panel capacity almost doubled during the year.
Nevertheless, the output per day can
vary by a factor of 500. In the darker 50 Hertz Transmission region Germany,
seasons, the contribution from the solar year 2012
panels is negligible. This means that the 5 000
May-25
capacity of the other power plants cannot
Solar PV output (MW)
4 000
be reduced as long as no economic long-
term energy storage facility for solar- 3 000
power is available.
2 000
Figure 3.29 compares three very Jun-21
different days of solar PV electricity 1 000
production. June 21 could have shown Jan-02
the highest output from the solar panels, 0
but apparently the weather situation was 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
not favourable for PV. The fluctuations in Time of the day
PV output in the time span around noon
on June 21 and May 25 are also caused Figure 3.29. Three days in 2012 having substantial
by clouds. differences in PV panel output.
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 69
35
the end of 2012. In the 50Hertz TSO
30
area, the wind power capacity increased
turbines (GWh)
25
from 11.8 GW to 12.4 GW in 2012. It 20
y = –0.0804x + 18.069
would be ideal if the lack of sunshine in 15 R2 = 0.1285
the darker seasons could be compensated 10
for by increased output from the wind 5
turbines. However, although the peaks in 0
0 50 100 150 200 250
wind turbine output are actually higher in % of the time
the winter, there are still many days with
very little wind. The correlation coefficient Figure 3.32. Daily energy output from the solar PV panels
between the black trend line and the actual plotted against that of the wind turbines (data points of 366
days, year 2012, 50Hertz TSO region, Germany).
data of wind energy in Figure 3.31 has the
70 Power supply challenges
10 000
Demand
8 000
Others
Power (MW)
6 000
4 000
Solar
Wind
2 000
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Time (hours)
Figure 3.33. Power demand, output from solar panels and wind turbines, and the resulting
balancing by the other generators.
low value of only 0.18. This means that the volatility in wind-based electricity produc-
tion is so high that the trend line gives no proper indication of the actual instantaneous
production. Even when electricity from wind and solar is combined, there are many
occasions when other generators have to cover the full electricity demand.
During times of really high wind turbine output, there is generally little sunshine.
Stormy weather and heavy clouds usually come together. Figure 3.32 shows that if
the daily electricity production from wind exceeds 150 GWh, the PV panels generally
deliver relatively little energy. During days with much sunshine, with a combined PV
panel output higher than 25 GWh, the wind-based electricity production does not
exceed 80 GWh. The blue trend line in Figure 3.32 has a very low correlation with
the actual data, meaning that no real relationship between solar PV output and wind-
turbine output is present.
Two examples will now show the impact of solar panels and wind turbines on
daily load following in the 50Hertz TSO area. May 25, 2012, was a day with very
much sunshine and moderate winds. The blue curve in Figure 3.33 shows the
electricity demand for the whole day in 15 minute intervals. Minimum demand
equalled 7 GW. Maximum demand was 10.5 GW. This is a typical pattern for an
industrialised country. The maximum rise rate in demand was about 1 GW per hour
between 5.30 am and 7 am. May 25 was a Friday, and apparently many industrial
and commercial activities closed early on that day, hence the decline in demand in
the afternoon. Satisfying such a demand pattern with conventional nuclear and coal-
fired power plants is not difficult because of the high predictability of the demand
pattern and the relatively high baseload.
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 71
10 000
Demand
8 000
Power (MW)
6 000
4 000
Solar Others
Wind
2 000
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Time (hours)
Figure 3.34. The impact of much wind and solar-based electricity on the other power
plants in the 50Hertz TSO area.
However, the power supply from the solar panels and wind turbines covered
a substantial proportion of the demand. The red line in Figure 3.33 shows that
the minimum load of the other power providers was just 4 GW while they had to
cover two substantial peaks. This substantially reduced the steady load, which has
negative consequences for nuclear and coal-based power plants. The traditionally
rather profitable daytime power supply almost halved for the power stations. For
the whole day, the renewable energy sources covered some 30% of the electric
energy demand.
Figure 3.34 shows an even larger impact that the power supply from wind turbines
and solar panels has on the output from the power plants. On May 12, 2012, the two
renewable sources covered almost 70% of the total electricity demand. Between 2 pm
and 5 pm, the power plants needed to supply only 1 GW to the grid. Again, if just two
500 MW power plants would then have to fill the demand not covered by the renew-
ables, a tripping of one of them would mean losing so much dispatchable capacity that
primary reserves could never fill the gap.
The impact of the solar PV panels and wind turbines on electricity production
in the German 50 Hertz TSO area shows that the typical baseload often disappears.
The need for at least a certain amount of dispatchable power in the system means that
occasionally electricity has to be exported to neighbouring areas. Even the curtailment
of wind turbine output is needed now and then to avoid an uncontrollable situation,
such as there being limited export opportunities through transmission restrictions or
insufficient demand.
72 Power supply challenges
80 000 40
60 000 30
Average daily
(MW)
40 000 20
20 000 10
0 0
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000
January – December hours in 2012
Figure 3.35. Hourly data of power demand in the ERCOT region during 2012.
80 000
ERCOT power demand
60 000
(MW)
40 000
20 000
0
10 15 30 25 30
Average daily temperature in Texas (°C)
Figure 3.36. Power demand in the ERCOT region plotted against the daily average
temperature in Texas (year 2012).
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 73
Temperature (°C)
60 40
Figure 3.38 gives an example of the 50 35
pattern in power demand and ambient
40 30
temperature during a hot day in August Austin temperature °C
30 25
2012. During the night, less than 40 GW
20 20
is required, while at around 4 pm when
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
the temperature reaches its peak, some Time(hours)
65 GW is needed to satisfy demand.
The maximum ramp up rate is 8.5 GW Figure 3.38. Hourly power demand in the ERCOT region and
per hour. Figure 3.39 clearly illustrates the hourly temperature in Austin, Texas on August 7, 2012.
that there is almost no time lag between
power demand and temperature. Apparently, the insulation of buildings in Texas is
poor. Power demand could be substantially reduced during high and very low tem-
peratures with better insulation.
The direct relationship between power demand and ambient temperature might
offer interesting opportunities for saving fuel consumption with solar photovoltaics.
Figure 3.39 gives simulated results for a case where the maximum output from solar
PV equals 10 GW and a case with a peak PV output of 20 GW. Solar PV clearly
provides smoothing of the power plant output during the daytime. However, as in
Germany, a high ramping up of power plants is needed where there is a substantial
amount of PV capacity when the sun sets. In addition, the utilisation factor of the
74 Power supply challenges
Power (GW)
output
amount of installed power plant capacity 40
Figure 3.40. Although wind and solar energy compensate each other to some extent,
back-up capacity is always needed.
3. Balancing power demand and supply when conditions change 75
Power (MW)
solar PV output in figure 3.41 show that Thermal power plants
10 000
the maximum output of PV panels was Solar PV outputs
8 000
2 GW on October 16, 2013. The light 6 000
Thermal if doubling of PV
blue curve representing the output from Thermal if no PV
4 000
the thermal power plants is quite flat 2 000
during the daytime. A relatively small 0
peak in the output of the thermal power 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
plants occurs in early evening when the Time of the day (hours)
sun sets. If the installed PV capacity was
doubled, the green curve would apply Figure 3.41. The effect of the output of solar PV panels on
for the thermal power plants. The green the output of thermal power plants in California on October
curve clearly tends to peak more than the 16, 2013.
light blue and the dark blue curves. This
requires flexible backup generators. Doubling the solar panel capacity in California
would have saved the equivalent of 3.6 million m3 of natural gas on October 16,
2013.
3.6. Conclusions
Matching power demand and supply becomes more complicated with variable and non-
dispatchable renewable energy sources. In areas where wind and solar energy have an
installed capacity close to or higher than half of the average power demand, baseload
generally disappears. The capacity factor of thermal power plants decreases – but their
installed capacity has to be almost the same as when there are no renewables in the
system.
What is obviously needed is flexible backup power. Backup power plants should be
capable of rapid, continuous starting and stopping. They should ramp output quickly
up and down and they should be fuel-efficient at any load. Where hydropower is not
present, the best solution appears to be gas-fired plants based on multiple combustion
engines. They can act as reserve capacity, answer to wind forecasting errors and follow
the output of renewables as closely as possible. In other words, agile gas-based power
plants are able to match power demand and supply once again.
4 Active and
reactive power
Electrical engineers distinguish between active and reactive power in electricity
supply systems. Active power refers to the energy transfer from an electric
generator to a load via conducting wires. Reactive power results from currents
created by alternating voltage in certain elements of the system without a net
release of energy. Reactive power affects the transmission capability of high-voltage
lines and the voltage in the system. Large shares of renewable energy sources, long
transmission lines, and reliance on a few large power plants can cause a lack in the
reactive power supply and problems with the reliability of the supply system.
Note from the author: The relationship between an increasing amount of
renewable energy in a system and problems with reactive power is not well
covered in available publications. This is why these issues are addressed here, even
though the content becomes rather technical. Students, researchers, consultants,
business managers, and policy makers should benefit from this chapter. Readers
not interested in technical details can jump to sections 4.6. and 4.7. where
the consequences of renewable electricity for the reactive power supply are
summarized.
78 Power supply challenges
~
Figure 4.4 is an illustration where a sinusoidal voltage with
Generator
a peak value of 325 volt is applied to a resistor of 2.5 ohm. The R VR
peak value of a sine wave is also called amplitude. The ampli-
tude expresses the maximum excursion of the sine wave from
zero. Since the current through a resistive load follows the
voltage immediately, a sinusoidal current with a peak value of Figure 4.3. A schematic repre-
325 V/ 2.5 Ώ = 130 A results (the black curve in Figure 4.4). sentation of an ac generator with a
resistive load.
Since both the current and voltage waves in the example have
their peaks and valleys at the same time, they are referred to as
being in phase.
The product of the instantaneous values of voltage and current gives the power
dissipated in the resistor. This product is illustrated by the solid red line with a peak
value of 325 V · 130 A = 42250 watt ≈ 42.3 kW. The voltage and the current oscil-
late around an average value of zero; half of the time they are positive and half of
the time they are negative. The resulting solid red power curve appears always to be
above zero. The reason for this is simple: basic mathematics tells us that multiplying
two negative values results in a positive value. The power curve oscillates around an
average value of 21.1 kW and apparently has the double frequency of the voltage. The
offset of the power curve from the horizontal axis (the dashed dark red line) equals
the effective averaged power dissipated in the resistor.
It is interesting to see from the solid red line in Figure 4.4 that the instanta-
neous energy delivered to a resistor is never constant in an alternating current
system. This generally does not affect the user because of the high frequency. The
light coming from an incandescent lamp will follow the oscillations in power to
some extent, but the human eye is hardly sensitive to light variations with frequen-
cies higher than 50 Hz. If the periodic variations in voltage level or power are a
80 Power supply challenges
Power P
20 000
We will now mathematically deter-
200 10 000
mine the average power dissipated in a
resistive load. This will also reveal the 0 0
concept of the effective value or root –200 –10 000
mean square value (rms) of an alter-
–400 –20 000
nating voltage or current. The voltage
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
and current values of alternating elec-
Time (millisecond)
tricity systems are normally always given
as rms values. Voltage Current Instaneous power
Effective power
The result of multiplying two sine
waves can be found by using the basic
mathematical relationship:
Figure 4.4. A sinusoidal voltage with a peak value of 325 volt
sin x · sin x = sin2x = ½ – ½ cos 2x , inducing a sinusoidal current with a peak value of 130 ampere
in a resistor of 2.5 ohm (Ώ), resulting in a cosine-shape power
Equation 4.3.
curve around a positive offset of 21.2 kW equalling the effec-
tive power delivered.
We can now give each sine wave an
amplitude of A and B, so that the equation becomes:
In the case of a sine wave with a peak value of 325 volt, the effective value Vrms
= 325/√2 = 230 volt. This is a familiar number for many people. Again, in electrical
engineering, what is always meant when talking about voltage and current, unless
otherwise stated, is the rms value of an alternating voltage or current. Since the
rms value of the current passing a resistor of 2.5 Ώ for an rms voltage of 230 volt is
230/2.5 = 92 ampere. The power P dissipating in this resistor equals then:
P = Vrms . Irms = 230 . 92 = 21125 W ≈ 21.1 kW Equation 4.6.
This resulting average product of voltage and current is called active power.
The visualisation of the product of the two sine waves, as given in figure 4.4, is
intended to help the reader to understand better the result of the dry mathematical
manipulation. The reader should now be able to understand the concept of active
power, where voltage and current are in phase and their rms values determine the
power dissipated in a resistive load.
Product V × I
the product of voltage and current for a 200 10 000
100 5 000
peak voltage of 325 volt and a capacitance 0 0
–100 –5 000
of 1500 μF for a frequency of 50 Hz. The –200 –10 000
product of voltage and current has again –300 –15 000
–400 –20 000
double the frequency of the voltage, but it –500 –25 000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
has on average no offset from zero. There-
Time (millisecond)
fore, although the current reaches peaks of
Voltage Current Voltage × current
153 A, on average no power is delivered
Average product
to the capacitor, as indicated by the green
dashed line. The product of voltage and
current is, therefore, called reactive power, Figure 4.6. Reactive power as the product of voltage and
with the unit volt ampere (VAr). current in the case of a purely capacitive load
The natural capacitance in most
electricity supply systems is relatively small. Underground electric cables have more
capacitance than overhead cables due to the closer proximity of the conductive wires.
Also, some modern electronic devices have a capacitive element next to a resistive
one. Such an example is the LED light.
We will now introduce the phasor or vector concept that is commonly used
in electrical engineering. A sine wave is actually a projection of the position of a
point moving along a circle at a constant speed. Point A in Figure 4.7 starts at 0°
and moves in an anti-clockwise direction along a circle with a radius r. The vertical
distance of point A from the starting point is plotted against a vertical axis, while
the angle covered from the starting point is plotted against a horizontal axis. The
amplitude, i.e. the maximum excursion from the starting point, equals the radius
of the circle. The dark green arrow in the circle is called the phasor of point A. If
point A arrives at 90°, the phasor points in a vertical direction. If the phasor covers
the full 360° of the circle in 20 milliseconds, the so-called period time of the sine
wave equals 20 ms. A period time of 20
ms means that point A completes 50 90°
revolutions in one second. The frequency
of the sine wave is in that case 50 hertz Amplitude
(Hz). r
180°
Figure 4.8 gives the symbolic rep- A
Product V × I
the frequency of that of the basic voltage 100 5 000
0 0
wave. In the example of figure 4.11, the
–100 –5 000
peak in current reaches 130 A for a peak –200 –10 000
voltage of 325 V and an inductance of –300 –15 000
8 millihenri (mH) for a frequency of –400 –20 000
–500 –25 000
50 Hz. The product of voltage and cur-
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
rent is again the reactive power.
Time (millisecond)
Voltage Current Voltage × current
4.3. The power factor cos φ Average product
Equation
VZ = √(VL2 + VR2) = IZ √((2πƒL)2 + R2)
4.10.
Figure 4.12. An electric
motor has resistive and The quotient VZ/IZ is called the apparent resistance
inductive elements
or impedance Z. The word impedance has been derived
from the Latin impedio, meaning hindrance. Literally, it
means that one’s feet, the pedes, are wrapped. In the example of Figure 4.13, the rms
voltage VZ equals 230 V. Since the impedance Z equals √ ((2π · 50 · 0.04)2 + 202) =
23.65 Ώ, the resulting current IZ equals 230 /23.65 = 9.73 A. The voltage V Z leads
the current IZ by the angle φ. The angle φ can easily be found from cosine φ = V R
/ VZ . In this case, cosine φ equals 194/230 = 0.84, which is the power factor cos φ.
4. Active and reactive power 85
~
and the reactive ‘power’ to the impedance φ
equals: VZ Z
IZ = 9.73 A
Generator Ireactive = 5.28 A
Preactive = VZ · IZ sin φ Equation 4.12.
The unit of active power is watt (W) Figure 4.14. Electric current to an electrical impedance split
and the unit of reactive power is VAr. into a an active-real-component and a reactive – imaginary –
component.
In the examples shown in figures 4.13
and 4.14, the active power is 230 · 8.17
= 18.8 kW and the reactive power is
400 20
230 · 5.28 = 12.1 VAr. Due to the reac- Voltage (V)
300 15
tive part of the impedance, the electric Current
200 10
current from the generator to the active
Voltage VZ
Current IZ
100 5
load is a factor of 1/cos φ, or 9.73/8.17 0 0
= 1.19 here, higher than in the case of –100 –5
no reactive part. It means that both the –200 –10
generator and the transmission line have –300 –15
to be able to accept a higher current than –400 –20
the active current delivered to the load. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
The blue curve in Figure 4.15 gives Time (millisecond)
the resulting current for an rms voltage
of 230 V for an impedance of 23.65 Ώ Figure 4.15. Diagram of voltage and current for Vrms = 230
and a power factor cos φ of 0.84 as per V and Irms = 9.73 A for an impedance of 23.65 Ώ and a power
factor cos φ = 0.84
the examples in figures 4.13 and 4.14. The
86 Power supply challenges
blue current curve follows the yellow voltage curve by the angle φ, equalling 32.9°
here, since cos 32.9 = 0.84. For a 50 Hz system, an angle of 32.9° results in a time
shift between voltage and current of 32.9/360 · 20 ms = 1.83 ms, since a complete
50 Hz sine curve of 360° covers 20 ms.
To summarize, the power factor in an ac electrical system indicates the phase
shift between the voltage wave and the current wave. In systems with a power factor
lower than 1, voltage and current are no longer in phase. In addition, the electric cur-
rent in a system with a power factor lower than 1 is always higher than in the case of
a power factor of 1, provided the supply voltage is the same.
In the example above, with a conductor area of 491 mm2, the maximum allowed
current equals 838 A. The presumed current of 500 A is therefore not a problem
when the ambient temperature is low. The resistivity itself depends on the tempera-
ture:
ρactual = ρ0 [1 + α (Tactual – T0)] Equation 4.15.
μ
Lspecific = π (¼ + ln rs ) Equation 4.16.
Here, ε is the permittivity, which has a free space value of 8.85 pF/m (p = pico = 10 –12).
Again, ambient air can be considered as free space here. The distance between the wires
is s again and the radius of the wire is r. A larger distance between the wires reduces
the capacitance, while a larger wire diameter increases the capacitance. Using the same
line dimensions as for the inductance, we find that Cspecific = π · 8.85/ln (2/0.0125 ) =
5.48 pF/m. This results in a specific capacitive reactance XC(spec) = 1/j2πƒC = –j 581
MΏ/m (M = 106 and the product of the operators j · j is by definition –1).
reistor (MW)
is reached.
30 0.6
If the load resistance is increased
to 1 000 Ώ, the power dissipated in the 20 0.4
resistive load equals 10 MW. Figure 4.22 10 0.2
shows that for a load of 10 MW the power
factor of the line current Iline reaches 1. 0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1 000
The voltage Vout then roughly equals Vin.
Load resistance value Rload (Ω)
The line current is then 0.1 kA. For a
load resistance higher than 1000 Ώ, and
consequently a load lower than 10 MW, Figure 4.21. Ratio of ingoing and outgoing voltage of a 100
the line current starts to lead Vin. Vout is kV transmission line, with the line current and the power dissi-
then slightly exceeding Vin as in the ear- pation in the load depending upon the resistance of the load.
lier example of no load at all, as can be seen from the yellow line in figure 4.21.
For a load resistance lower than 100 Ώ, the voltage over the load decreases so much
that the power dissipation in the load also decreases. The maximum power dissipated
in the load for the given transmission line dimensions and line voltage is, therefore,
37 MW with a current of 0.5 kA. Only shortening the transmission line and thereby
reducing its impedance will help in transporting more power to the load.
0.9
substantially lowers the capacity of a trans-
mission line between the load and the gen- 0.8
Capacitive Inductive
erators, as will be shown with an example. 0.7
Figure 4.22 shows the model of the power
supply system to be used for this. 0.6
Vin = 100 kV
VL(line) VR(line)
VL (line)
= 50 kV
Igenerator Iline j126Ω 10 Ω
100Ω
Vr(load)
VL (load)
Vin Vout = 40 kV Vout = 56 kV
Figure 4.24. Phasor diagram of a 200 km 100 kV transmission line with a load of
impedance Z of √ (1002 + 1002) = 251 Ώ and of cos φ = 0.7
4. Active and reactive power 93
Voltage (kV)
Current (A)
by φline = 64°, since cos φline = (40+4)/100 50 200
= 0.44. 0 0
–50 –200
The voltage drop over the transmis-
–100 –400
sion line decreases if the values of the
–150 –600
resistor and the inductor of the load are
–200 –800
increased with respect to the values given 0 10 20 30 40
in figure 4.24. This automatically reduces Time (ms)
the power transmitted over the line. For
a value of R load as well as X load of 625 Ώ,
the voltage over the transmission line Figure 4.25. Phase shift between the voltage Vin at the
drops by only 10%. Such a voltage drop beginning of the transmission line and the voltage Vout at the
is generally considered as the maximum end of the line, and the phase shift with the line current Iline for
the conditions shown in figure 4.24.
acceptable value. The power dissipated
in R load equals 6.5 MW in that case. By comparison, for a purely resistive load the
power dissipated in the resistor equals 26 MW for a voltage drop of 10%. Figure 4.26
illustrates that the energy transferring capacity of a high-voltage overhead transmis-
sion line heavily decreases when the load has a relatively low power factor.
In the example given, the maximum
amount of energy that can anyhow be
transferred for a cos φ of 0.7 is almost 16
Voltage ratio Vout/Vin (%)
100
MW (see Figure 4.26). If the impedance
cos φ = 1
of the load is further lowered, the power 90
dissipated decreases since the voltage over
80
the load further decreases. It will be clear cos φ = 0.7
that if the length of the line is shortened, 70
cos φ = 0.9
the voltage drop will be smaller. The line
inductance and resistance are directly 60
proportional to the length. 0 10 20 30 40
Active power of load (MW)
cannot transmit the active and reactive power in case of a highly reactive load.
Consumers using the same transmission line, but at shorter distance from the power
plants, may not see the voltage drop that distant consumers experience.
The problem of voltage collapse and energy transmission restrictions can be
avoided by installing more local power capacity based on synchronous generators.
Modern moderately sized power plants offer excellent backup capacity. They can
help to provide reactive power where there is a high penetration of renewable sources
with varying output.
4.7. Conclusions
Transporting large levels of reactive power via alternating current transmission lines
over long distances leads easily to voltage collapse at the end of the line. In such cases,
the active power transport capacity is drastically reduced. This can cause a blackout.
Therefore, future electricity supply systems with a high proportion of wind turbines and
solar panels cannot only use large power plants far away from the load for load bal-
ancing and frequency control. This would have a negative impact on supply reliability
and adequacy. As a solution, smaller power stations based on modular generating units
in parallel should be positioned at relatively short distances from the load centres. This
solves the problem of local voltage collapses caused by reactive power.
5 Energy storage
It would be very convenient if electrical energy could be easily and cheaply stored
in large quantities. Storage would help to shave peaks in electricity demand and
to provide reserve capacity in the supply system. Excess electricity from wind
turbines might be used when there is no wind. Daytime power from solar panels
could be stored for the evening and abundant solar energy in the summer could
be used in the winter. Unfortunately, converting electrical energy into chemical
or mechanical energy creates significant costs and losses of energy. To support
renewable power, the most promising solution is the integration of electricity and
heat use, including heat storage.
98 Power supply challenges
load capacity of a typical Panamax bulk carrier ship of Table 5.1. Approximate volumetric energy
75000 tonnes is needed for these 18 days of power plant density of common energy sources for elec-
operation. Knowing that a 500 MW electrical output is tricity generation (G = 10 ).
9
the equivalent of the average power output from 5 million Volumetric energy
Energy source
manual labourers brings these figures into perspective. It is density
an enormous fuel stream that is needed to generate a con- Coal 19 GJ/m3
tinuous electric energy flow of 500 MW. Fortunately, fuels
Fuel oil 35 GJ/m3
such as coal, oil, and high-pressure natural gas contain a
significant amount of energy per cubic metre. Natural gas at 80 bar 3 GJ/m3
It is interesting to note that a human being needs about Liquefied natural gas 21 GJ/m3
3000 kcal of food per day in order to provide 8 hours of
Animal fat 33 GJ/m3
hard manual labour. These 3000 kcal equal 12.5 MJ, since
1 kcal = 4.1868 kJ. Three daily shifts of 5 million workers Wood 10 GJ/m3
each, altogether 15 million workers, would be needed to Water at 400 m elevation 0.004 GJ/m3
continuously rotate a generator producing 500 MW. The
total food consumption by these workers would be 225 TJ/ Uranium 235 1500000000 GJ/m3
day, or 6 800 m3 of animal fat with a calorific value of 33 Compressed air at 80 bar 0.033 GJ/ m3
GJ/m3. The power plant uses about 108 TJ per day when
it is running at full output on coal, but the workers would Hydrogen at 80 bar 0.85 GJ/ m3
need in any case some 135 TJ to sustain their bodies when
they do not work. Therefore, the fuel efficiency of the workers and that of power
plants are not so different. Nevertheless, this example illustrates the high energy
supply needed to keep a 500 MW power plant running.
For hydropower, considerably larger storage volumes are required than for fuels.
The 4 MJ/m3 of potential energy Epotential given for water at a 400 meter elevation in
table 5.1. has been derived from:
Equation 5.1.
Epotential = ρ · g · h
in which density ρ = 1000 kg/m3, g = acceleration of gravity ≈ 10 m/s2 and h = 400 m.
If the efficiency of the turbine-generator combination of a hydropower plant
equals 80%, one needs 500 MW/0.80 ∙ 4 MJ/m3 = 156 m3 of water per second
flowing from an elevation of 400 m to deliver 500 MW of electricity. By comparison,
the river Rhine has an average water flow of 2300 m3/s when it arrives at the border
between Germany and The Netherlands. The river Elbe has an average water flow of
711 m3/s when meeting the sea, while the Danube’s flow is about 1500 m3/s when
it leaves Germany. The average electricity demand in Germany in 2010 was 67 GW,
which is a factor 134 higher than the 500 MW in the example. By comparison,
average electricity demand was 473 GW in the USA and 450 GW in China in the
same year.
Looking back to the example given using coal, to run the 500 MW hydropower
plant at full output for 18 days, one needs 18 ∙ 24 ∙ 3600 ∙ 156 ≈ 245 million m3 of
water at a 400 m elevation. This equals an area of 5 km by 2 km with the water level
starting 25 m above the 400 m elevation.
100 Power supply challenges
The example shows that deriving energy from raised water levels in order to
meet the electricity consumption takes a huge amount of water. The energy density
of pipeline natural gas expressed in GJ/m 3 is roughly a factor 7 500 higher than
that of water at an elevation of 400 m. For coal, it is a factor of almost 50 000.
The idea of having 100% electricity production based on wind and solar power
with energy stored in raised water levels sounds interesting but appears difficult
to realize. Time spans without wind over large areas can last more than a week,
while solar panels provide hardly any electricity during the dark winter months.
Covering electricity demand for prolonged times without fuels remains, therefore,
a major challenge.
Nevertheless, the storage of electricity as electrical, mechanical, chemical or even
thermal energy might be economically attractive. That can be the case in deregulated
electricity markets so as to make a profit from arbitrage, and in regulated markets so
as to lower costs for consumers. The economics depend on the application. It makes
a great difference whether the storage is used for:
The next sections of this chapter will discuss a number of storage methods.
Electricity Electricity
production Converter/ Converter/ consumption
charger discharger
MW MW
Energy storage
MWh/GWh/TWh
Faster charging can also reduce the life of a battery. Conventional lead-acid bat-
teries used in cars require slow recharging but can sustain a large short-term
discharge current when the engine starts. In other words, the charging device can
have a different power capacity than the discharging device.
The energy storage capacity depends on the size of the storage device. Batteries
consist of chemical cells. A large number of cells can be mounted in parallel to create
more capacity. For pumped hydro, simply a larger water reservoir is needed to create
more capacity.
Energy stored as heat or chill cannot be effectively converted back to electricity.
Such energy storage is rather useful for demand-side management of electricity
supply. Electric heating coils in hot water reservoirs can be switched on during times
of high output of wind turbines and low electricity demand. Refrigerated warehouses
can be extra cooled at times when electricity prices are low. A limitation here is that
many edible products have to be stored within a narrow temperature range to pre-
serve their quality.
Energy stored in fuels shows practically no decay. Most storage devices, however,
lose energy with time. Chemical batteries lose at least 1% of their full charge per day
and flywheels some 5%. By contrast, open water reservoirs can maintain their energy.
The evaporation can be more than compensated by rainfall, although this depends
on the local climate and the season.
nity exists only if market rules allow remuneration for operating a storage facility. Table
5.2 summarises the balancing tasks for different time-scales. The deferral of grid expan-
sion and of peaking-power generator investments can be an additional benefit of energy
storage.
Figure 5.3 illustrates the possible tasks for storage systems within a 24-hour
time span. If a storage system is used for continuous frequency control, it is actually
permanently in operation. The amount of energy exchange is in this case relatively
small compared with the power capacity. For daily peak shaving, energy can be
accumulated during the night. Charging can take place from 11 pm to 6 am when
demand is low, and discharging can take place from 5 pm to 9 pm when demand is
high. Charging would take 7 hours and discharging 4 hours in this example. This
means that the storage device charger can have a power capacity that is a factor of
7/4 = 1.75 lower than that of the discharger.
Other opportunities for storage systems include compensating for differences
between forecasted and real demand, and between forecasted and real renewable
output. Electricity demand itself can be predicted quite well based on historic
demand patterns and weather forecasts. Large temporary deviations can, however,
occur between the predicted and actual wind power. This is especially true when
the wind speed changes rapidly from high to low or vice versa. A difference of fifteen
minutes between the forecasted wind speed and the actual wind speed can make a
huge difference in the output of a wind farm. The prediction error might be positive
or negative, so the size of the charger and the discharger has to be the same.
Frequency control might be a special application for short-term energy storage.
In market-based supply systems, frequency deviations occur especially each time a
new trading time begins, say every 15 or 60 minutes. The injection or absorption of
energy at those moments can minimise frequency deviations.
Wind park output can remain high for a number of consecutive days, and then
be followed by some 10 days of little or no wind at all. Where 20 % of the average
electricity demand in an area has to be covered by wind energy, the installed wind
turbine capacity should be 80% of the average power demand if the capacity factor
of the combined wind turbines is 25%. This can be simply calculated: with a capacity
factor of 25%, on average 0.25 ∙ 80% = 20% of electricity demand is produced by the
wind turbines. In the case of high winds covering a large area, the combined output
5. Energy storage 103
Peak shaving
Wind prediction
error compensation Peak load
Power demand
+ Frequency control
Base load + Voltage control
+ Contingency reserve
+ Arbitrage
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time of the day (hours)
of the wind turbines can provide more power than the instantaneous demand, espe-
cially during the night. Imagine that the winds are so high that 90% of the installed
wind turbine capacity is running at full output. That means that 0.90 ∙ 80% = 72% of
the average power demand is produced by wind. During the night, power demand
can easily be less than 72% of the average demand. Temporary storage of part of the
oversupply of wind power output would help to leave space for some dispatchable
power generators in the grid, and the energy stored could be used later during times
of little wind. The charging power of the storage device would be higher than the
discharge power in this case.
If the excess summertime output from solar panels would be stored for use in
the winter, the storage capacity would have to be large. Enough energy storage for
at least 3 months is needed in a case like this. Systems such as flywheels, batteries
and compressed air can immediately be discarded for such applications because
their storage capacity is limited. Also, hydrogen cannot be used for long-term storage
because of its low volumetric energy density.
Some storage systems are by nature bi-directional. This means that they can
immediately switch from charging to discharging. Lead-acid batteries have this
ability. For pumped-hydro and compressed-air storage, it takes some minutes to
switch mode. The bi-directional capability stops when a storage system is full or
empty. Identical restrictions apply for hot water and chill storage systems. If the
temperature limits for hot water reservoirs or refrigerated products are reached, such
temperature-based systems lose their storage or dispatch capability. Demand-side
management systems generally have a lower capacity during the night than during
working hours, simply because there is less electricity demand during the night.
104 Power supply challenges
Energy storage
1 kWh = < 0.5 kWh
effective
Figure 5.5. Example of a lead-acid energy battery for use in electricity supply systems.
(see table 5.3. and Figure 5.5). This definitively does not mean that the user has to pay
€ 150 for each kWh of electricity from the battery. If the system can sustain a max-
imum of 2 000 charging/discharging cycles, and no interest on invested capital is used,
the cost per cycle of delivering the 0.5 kWh during each cycle equals 150 €/(2 000 ∙ 0.5
kWh) = 0.15 € /kWh. This has to be added to the price of purchasing the electricity. If
the electricity for charging costs 5 €cnt/kWh, one has to add 1 €cnt to this because of
the 90% efficiency of the charging and of the discharging processes. The total price of
electricity from the storage device is then 15 + 5 + 1 = 21 €cnt/kWh, i.e. more than 4
times the purchase price of 5 €cnt/kWh. As mentioned before, this price presumes that
the capital invested in the storage system is interest free and that no maintenance and
operation costs are incurred.
Presuming a discount rate of 5% and a system life of 5 years, the annual capital
costs equal 23.1% of € 150 = 34.65 €, or about 173 € for the 5 year time span. For
2 000 full cycles in this time span, meaning again a combined energy output of
2 000 ∙ 0.5 kWh = 1 000 kWh, this renders specific investment costs of 17.3 €cnt/
kWh. That results in an output electricity price of 17.3 + 5 + 1 = 23.3 €cnt/kWh. A
lead-acid battery also needs regular inspections of the level of the liquid covering the
electrodes. That might take two man hours over the life span of the battery at a cost
of say 75 €. This adds 7 500 €cnt/1 000 kWh = 7.5 €cnt to the electricity costs. In
addition, a lead-acid battery loses charge at a rate of 10% of its full charge per month.
For a time span of 5 years, this equals 600% of its full charge, or 6 kWh. In our
example of 5 €cnt purchase costs per kWh, this decay loss amounts to only 60 €cnt
in 5 years which is close to negligible. To summarize, the application of this battery
for some 2 000 cycles with a depth of discharge of 50% will add almost 26 €cnt to
the original kWh price of 5 €cnt. After 5 years of use, batteries are hazardous waste
and their treatment may create additional costs. And, of course, after every 5 years
new batteries would have to be acquired.
106 Power supply challenges
Using the lead-acid battery for frequency control, providing rather short-term
power delivery and short-term power absorption based on a very small depth of
discharge, the technical life of the battery might be 10 years. During that time span,
some deterioration of the battery will occur due to internal corrosion. The nominal
charging power of the battery in the example was shown to be 100 W and the price
of equipment 150 €. This means that the investment in
absorbing power from the grid is 150 €/100 W or 1 500 €/ Table 5.4. Summary of the total costs of
kW. The maximum temporary discharging power equals electricity from a lead-acid battery with 2000
2.4 kW, resulting in a discharge power investment of only cycles and an effective storage capacity of
0.5 kWh.
€150/2.4 = 62.5 €/kW. These are figures to consider when
using storage technology for short-term balancing such as Costs item €cnt/kWh
frequency control. By comparison, a gas-fuelled generator Capital costs 17.3
can do the same job and might cost about € 600/kW.
The power ramp-up and ramp-down times also Maintenance costs 7.5
play a role in estimating the value of energy storage in Charging energy costs 5
grid systems. Electro-chemical battery systems respond Efficiency loss costs 1
immediately with maximum capacity, which makes them
Total costs 30.8
very suitable for primary reserves. This is especially true
in island operation and emergency supply systems. For
short-term balancing, the size of the batteries seems less important. However, their
use is restricted to the point where at the battery has reached its minimum charge
level, or to the point where the battery is fully charged.
The key performance indicators of lead-acid-battery based energy storage systems
are summarized in Table 5.5. These figures are indications and detailed specifications
differ, depending on equipment size and supplier.
The key performance indicators (KPIs) are needed to investigate the realistic
applications of a storage technology. The KPIs given in table 5.5. reveal immediately
that storing solar-PV based energy accumulated in the summer, May – August, to
be used in the winter, November – February, is never economic with lead-acid bat-
teries. It would mean using the storage facility for only one cycle per year with an
average storage time of six months. Half of the stored energy would be lost due to
decay. With a discount rate of 5% and a maximum system life of 10 years, the costs
per kWh delivered would be at least € 45.
Table 5.5. Example of the key performance indicators of a small lead-acid battery
based energy storage system.
As shown above, using the battery for daily peak shaving with energy accumu-
lated during the night would add “only” about 25 €cnt to the kWh price. Frequency
control on a per-minute basis using the high discharge power might offer a more eco-
nomic opportunity, but the low charging power of lead-acid batteries is a bottleneck.
One conventional application of such batteries in electricity supply systems is to pro-
vide energy for the starting motors of engine-driven generator sets. Another common
use is in emergency applications in cases of grid failure. Batteries are needed during
the interim period when fuel-based generators are starting up.
A proven application of lead-acid battery-based storage is for off-grid use in
combination with solar panels at locations without an electricity grid. In electricity
supply systems, the best application might be for primary control reserves in the
case of power plant trips. The batteries could immediately supply their maximum
power when needed, while the storage capacity needs only to be enough for about
10 minutes until the secondary reserves start working. Another application could be
to compensate for the loss of inertia caused by many indirectly coupled renewable
energy sources in the system.
1 000 100
% of total national electricity use
Electricity from hydropower
800 80
600 60
(TWh)
400 40
200 20
0 0
a
il
ia
ay
la
az
in
ad
di
US
ss
ue
rw
Ch
In
Br
Ru
n
ez
No
Ca
n
Ve
Figure 5.6. The eight countries with the highest electricity production from hydropower
and its fraction of total electricity demand (approximate figures, data for the year 2009).
5. Energy storage 109
e
rat
ne
In 2009, the members of Eurelectric Tunnel
Ge
penstock
(comprising almost all the European energy
companies) produced about 550 TWh from power-
house
Lower
hydropower, equalling 16% of the electricity
p
reservoir
m
Pu
demand in the area. The capacity was 198 GW. Pump- Typical pumped-
Pumped storage in the Eurelectric area is cur- turbine storage developement
5.4.4. Flywheels
Flywheel storage utilises fast rotating elements for
accumulating energy. The rotor is accelerated, or
‘charged’, by an integrated electric motor that acts
as a generator when the system discharges. The Figure 5.9. Image of a planned energy island in the
typical rotating speed is 20000 rpm. To reduce fric- North Sea, the so-called Plan Lievense. Courtesy of
DNV GL, Lievense CSO and Gebroeders Das.
tion losses, the rotors are positioned in a vacuum
5. Energy storage 111
chamber and magnetic bearings are used. Typically, the amount of energy stored is 25
kWh with a discharge capacity of 100 kW. The typical dimensions of such a flywheel
would have a height of 2 m and a diameter of 1.2 m. The ramp up time to full capacity
is about 1 second.
Flywheels as storage systems are still under development. Their properties could
be suitable for frequency regulation and spinning reserve. Unlike batteries, flywheels
do not have a limited number of charging cycles. In that respect they might be a pre-
ferred option for frequency regulation. However, their current size is too small for
large-scale electricity supply applications.
Most probably, flywheel-based energy
Upper Axial
storage will be limited to smaller, niche- vacuum electromagnet
chambers
type applications.
Lower Upper radial
vacuum electromagnet
chambers
5.4.5. Compressed air
Carbon fiber Patented
composite molecular
flywheel vacuum
Pressurised air can release its potential sleeve
energy by expanding over a turbine or Motor- Synchronous
generator reluctance
reciprocating expander. Pressurised air can stator 4 pole m-g
rotor
also supply a combustion turbine with air 2” thick
steel Lower radial
for the combustion chamber. The energy housing electromagnet
density of compressed air at a pressure
of 70 bar (7 MPa) is about 29 MJ/m3,
which is quite low compared to most other Figure 5.10. Illustration of a flywheel energy storage
means of energy storage as shown in table device. Image source: Powerthru.
5.1. For storing an amount of energy that
might be useful for electricity supply systems, large underground caverns or aquifers
are required. One problem with compressing ambient air is that unless the air is cooled
during compression, it can reach a temperature of 700 °C when being compressed to
70 bar. This drastically increases the power demand for compression. If the air cools off
during storage, the pressure drops in proportion to the absolute temperature. Cooling
from 700 °C to 100 °C reduces the pressure by a factor 2.6. This is why practical instal-
lations use intercoolers during the compression process. The heat from the intercoolers
is then released to the atmosphere. With so-called adiabatic storage systems, the heat
released during the compression process is also stored and is used for heating the air
to create more air volume before it expands. The storage volume has preferably to be
filled against a fixed pressure created by a water column, otherwise the compression and
expansion equipment has to operate across a wide pressure range.
Figure 5.11 is an illustration of a compressed-air energy storage system (CAES).
There are two compressed-air energy storage installations (CAES) is the world: in
Huntdorf, Germany and McIntosh, Alabama, USA. The 110 MW output McIntosh
plant, built in 1991, requires 0.69 kWh of electricity for compression and 1.17 kWh
of fuel energy to produce 1 kWh of electrical output. The energetic efficiency of the
plant therefore equals 54%. However, proponents of the technology state that the
112 Power supply challenges
Electric
grid
Compressor Expansion
+ cooler turbine
Air
intake
Heat
exchanger
Valve A Valve B
Open during Open during Exhaust
compression expansion
Water at 70 bar
energy stored in fuel can never be fully converted into electric energy. They use by
convention a standard 50% efficiency for turning fuel energy into electricity, thus
ending up with an alternatively defined turn-around efficiency of 78.5%. The 1978
built, 290 MW output Huntdorf plant has a turn-around efficiency of only 62.5%,
even with this positive definition.
In the example of a CAES the size of the McIntosh plant, providing 110 MW
output requires a fuel supply of 117 MW and a compressed-air supply of 69 MW.
If the air is supplied at a pressure of 70 bar and a consequent energy air density of
29 MJ/m3, the connected air flow equals roughly 69/29 = 2.4 m3 per second. To
run the plant during 4 hours for peaking applications requires a stored volume of 4 ∙
3600 ∙ 2.4 ≈ 34560 m3. This is a storage volume of about 33 m ∙ 33 m ∙ 33 m. It will
be clear that only underground caverns and geological structures are large enough
to hold the required volumes. Apparently, using CAES for long-term storage of large
quantities of energy is not realistic. The main application might be found for use in
time spans less than one day for peak shaving.
Compressed-air energy storage in the discharging mode has start-up and
ramping-up times equal to that of an open-cycle gas turbine. This would allow it to
be used for secondary reserve control, but not for primary reserves as in the case of
batteries. Also, its output load range is comparable with that of a gas turbine, with
a rapidly decreasing efficiency below 70% load. When starting the charging mode,
the torque on the driving motors has to be gradually increased with a compressor
bypass. Its power absorption capacity fully depends on the size of the compressor.
If a cavity of 34560 m 3 has to be filled during 8 hours to store 34540 m 3 ∙ 29 MJ/
5. Energy storage 113
m 3 = 1001660 MJ ≈ 1 TJ, the energy flow into the cavity equals 1001660 MJ/ (8
∙ 3600) = 34.8 MW. For a presumed isentropic 85% efficiency of the compression
process and a motor efficiency of 96%, the power consumption during charging
will be 42.5 MW.
The costs of such a CAES system depend heavily on the availability of sufficient
storage volume. The compression equipment might costs some 500 €/kW, the tur-
bine, heat exchanger and generator some 1000 €/kW, and the high-pressure valves
and control equipment some 10 M€. These costs are estimates for a well-established
product; test sites with initially unique equipment might be factors more expensive.
The above mentioned costs add up to a total of almost 150 M€, or 1360 € per kW of
output power. To that has to be added the development work for the storage volume,
which depends to a large extent on the availability of a suitable site.
If the system is used during 1000 hours a year and the technical life is estimated
at 30 years, the annual capital costs (Fixed Charge Rate FCR) of 150 M€ investment
for a discount rate of 5% are 0.065 ∙ 150 M€ = 9.75 M€, since here:
(1+0.05)30
FCR = 0.05 · = 0.065 Equation 5.2.
(1+0.05)30–1
The discount rate is the interest rate to be paid for the invested capital.
Table 5.6 summarises the costs of the 110 MW CAES plant example operating
for 1000 full output hours per year. The costs per kWh of delivered electricity are
about 15 €cnt/kWh. It should be stressed that no investment and operation costs for
the storage space are included here. Also, any emission charges are excluded. If the
electricity purchase price during charging would be a typical 6 €cnt/kWh instead of
the very cheap 3 €cnt/kWh, this would add another 2.1 €cnt to the costs per kWh.
In comparison, a peaking plant running on natural gas can produce electricity for
less than 10 €cnt/kWh for the same boundary conditions as in table 5.6.
When we compare the costs for daily peak shaving of a CAES with that of
pumped hydro, CAES can be more expensive by a factor of 5 to 20.
Table 5.6. Example of the estimated electricity output costs of a 110 MW CAES in the
case of 1000 full load running hours per year and an electricity purchase price of 3 €cnt/kWh
Operation/maintenance 1.5 €cnt/kWh
Heat and chill can be excellently stored in water at relatively low cost.
Examples exist of heating the contents of underground water reservoirs with heat
from solar collectors in the summer for use in the winter. A district heating system
in Austria owned by EVN uses a 50000 m3 tank for heat storage to balance the
heat output from a large combined heat and power plant with heat demand. Since
the specific heat capacity of water equals 4.185 kJ/(kg K), cooling the contents of
the tank from 94 °C to 60 °C releases 50 000 000 kg ∙ (94 – 60)K ∙ 4.185 kJ/(kg
K) = 7114500000 kJ ≈ 7.1 TJ. Heating the contents again with excess electricity
requires about 2 GWh, since 1 kWh equals 3.6 MJ so that 2 GWh is 7.2 TJ. Dissi-
pating 2 GWh during a time span of 4 hours means that the tank can absorb 2000
MWh/4 h = 500 MW of electricity during 4 hours while heating the contents
again from 60 °C to 94 °C. The capital investment for such a tank is about 100 €/
m 3, or about 3 € per kWh storage capacity.
Many local combined heat and power (CHP) installations of 2 to 20 MW of elec-
trical output are equipped with heat storage tanks. Applications are primarily found
in district heating systems and greenhouses. Modern home heating systems also
use heat storage, sometimes in combination with solar heat collectors. In Denmark,
heat storage tanks are increasingly being equipped with electrical heating coils for
accepting cheap excess electricity from wind turbines. Heat storage is an excellent
way of smoothing the variable output from renewable energy sources. This reduces
both fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
Heat pumps help improve the electricity to heat conversion effectiveness when
low output temperatures are required. Underfloor heating in combination with heat
pumps can yield a so called coefficient of performance (COP) that easily exceeds
Figure 5.13. A 50000 m3 heat storage tank owned by EVN in Theiss, Austria, with a
capacity of up to 7.2 TJ.
5. Energy storage 117
ne
il
ite al
lg e
oa
as
lo
an
ra g
gn o
)
ha
tu era
kc
(li n c
ue
op
substantial decrease in the use of fossil
et
ac
na Av
ow
yf
Pr
M
Bl
av
Br
fuels can be achieved. Backup can be
He
provided with the traditional fuels: gas,
oil, coal and nuclear fuel, which offer easy Figure 5.15. Emissions of CO2 per fuel type, based on the
long-term storage. In particular, gaseous lower calorific value.
fuels seem to offer good possibilities,
since much gas is available as natural gas, shale gas, coal-bed methane and biogas.
The CO2 emission of methane, the main constituent of gaseous fuels, is 54.8 g/MJ,
which is low compared to coal and oil (see Figure 5.15).
The Bergermeer facility under construction near Bergen in The Netherlands
will be an example of a typical gas storage site. The gas field can store 8.4 billion
normal cubic metres of gas, of which 4.1 billion m3 is its working volume. The rest
Compressed air
1 000 Pumped hydro
Lead-acid battery
NA-S battery
Flywheel
100 Li-ion battery
10
1
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1 000
Energy storage investment (Euro/kWh)
Figure 5.16. General impression of investment levels for different storage techniques.
The costs per kWh of electric energy delivered depend on the life of the storage method
and its utilisation factor.
5. Energy storage 119
5.6. Conclusions
For most energy storage technologies, frequency regulation and peak shaving seem to be
the best applications. But storing energy for more than a few days can easily more than
double electricity costs. Combining renewable energy sources with heat production in
CHP systems could offer an effective means for using excessive renewable energy. This
would reduce fossil fuel consumption substantially. Full abstinence from fossil fuels
appears to be utterly uneconomic with current state-of-the-art storage technology. Nat-
ural gas seems to offer low-cost solutions for storing energy and balancing electricity
supply and demand with a relatively low burden on the environment.
6 Costs of
producing electricity
Knowing the production costs of electrical energy is crucial for power producers
operating in competitive markets. Many cost items cannot be controlled by the
owner of a power plant. Therefore, profitability of an investment is very difficult to
predict. This is challenging for electricity producers. The cost figures given in this
chapter are examples that can be modified by the reader for particular situations.
The intention is to gain an insight into the underlying mechanisms that determine
the kWh costs.
122 Power supply challenges
Vertically integrated
electricity supply Unbundled, free market electricity supply Electricity
retail Customers
Generators company
Customers
Figure 6.2. Two extremes: a fully integrated electricity supply system and a completely
free market electricity supply system.
For an equipment life expectancy of n years, the so-called fixed charge rate FCR
equals: (1 + R)n
FCR = R · Equation 6.3.
(1 + R)n –1
The fixed charge rate is then 0.075 for a discount rate of 0.07 and an equipment
life of 40 years, while for a life of just 20 years, the FCR will be 0.094. The equations
allow the readers to determine the FCR for their own possible application.
Table 6.1. gives examples of typical capital investments in different power plant
techniques. The equipment investment price can differ from country to country,
depending upon, for example, equipment costs, local labour costs, and infrastruc-
tural requirements. The additional costs caused by the lead time of each project have
been estimated by using a fixed charge rate based on a discount rate of 0.07 and an
average investment of half the equipment and installation costs during the lead time
until commissioning. Technically, the lifetime of generating equipment can be very
long, but spare parts might become obsolete and cumulative changes in regulations
might prove the technique to be inadequate in the long run.
The capital costs per kWh produced for the different generating methods as
mentioned in table 6.1., depend to a large extent on the utilisation factor of the gen-
126 Power supply challenges
Table 6.1. Examples of typical capital investments for different generating methods.
Gas turbine
750 24 806 40
comb. cycle
Gas engine
500 12 519 40
simple cycle
Wind onshore 1500 6 1528 20
to the grid. However, due to the variability of wind speed and solar irradiation
their maximum output is available only during a small fraction of the time. This
is expressed in their capacity factor, which shows how many kWh they produce
in reality compared with the kWh they would produce by running at full output.
Chapter 3 shows that the capacity factor of solar PV panels can be below 10% in
countries with a relatively dark winter season. In very sunny countries, it might
reach 30%. Onshore wind turbines have a capacity factor from 15 % to 35 %.
Offshore wind turbines might have a capacity factor ranging between 20 to 45
%. However, the highest percentage applies only for optimum locations. With an
unrestricted feed-in possibility, the capacity factor immediately translates into the
utilisation factor. It is interesting to note from table 6.1. that onshore wind tur-
bines currently require almost the same capital investment per kW as solar panels.
In countries with a moderate amount of sunshine, such as Germany, the electricity
production in kWh per installed kW is about twice as high for onshore wind tur-
bines than for solar panels. This means that the capital costs per kWh produced are
twice as high for the solar panels as for the wind turbines, under the assumption
that their lifecycles are of equal length.
The capital costs expressed in €cnt/kWh for the different generating techniques
given in table 6.1. are shown in Figure 6.6 as a function of the utilisation factor. It
should be kept in mind that the costs shown are based on the investment data in
table 6.1. for a discount rate of 7%. A fully depreciated power plant that remains a
remnant of a monopolistic utility might theoretically have zero capital costs. Private
investors in solar PV panels might be happy with a discount rate of 3%, especially in
times when interest rates on savings are low and substantial subsidies for installing
panels are available. This can result in artificially low capital costs for renewable
energy sources.
It seems fair to compare the different generating techniques for the same finan-
cial boundary conditions, because subsidies ultimately originate from taxpayer
money. It is also important to know that every generating technique needs backup
power, the amount of which depends upon its reliability and maintenance needs.
Fuel-based and hydro-electric power plants can have an availability of at least 95%
and therefore require backup capacity. They can share this reserve power resulting
in 5 % additional capital costs per power plant. Solar panels and wind turbines need
close to 100% backup capacity. That easily adds 1 to 2 €cnt/kWh to the capital costs
of the mentioned renewable energy sources, even when using relatively cheap gas
engines or gas turbines for backup.
The lines in Figure 6.6 for the capital costs of generators based on wind and solar
radiation do not cover the same utilisation factor range as those of other generating
techniques. The reason is that the maximum capacity factor for solar panels is 30%,
for onshore wind 35%, and for offshore wind 45 %. In most cases, the actual capacity
factors will be much lower than these maximum values.
Generators based on wind, solar radiation, and nuclear energy have on the one
hand the highest specific capital costs, but on the other hand they need no fuel or
128 Power supply challenges
20
18
Offshore wind
Specifiic capital factor (€cts/kWh)
16 Nuclear
Solar PV
14 Onshore wind
Hard coal
12
Hydro
10 Gas turbine c.c.
Gas engine s.c.
8
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Utilisation factor (%)
Figure 6.6. Capital costs per kWh depending on the utilisation factor, based on data from
table 6.1 and a discount rate of 7%.
the fuel cost is very low. The high investment costs of nuclear and coal-based power
plants mean that the plants should preferably run at full output as much as possible.
In addition, the steam-based techniques used for these power plants are not very
suitable for frequent starts and stops and for rapid changes in output. Steam boilers
and steam turbines suffer less wear if they operate under constant physical condi-
tions. Gas engine and gas turbine-based techniques are the best solutions for peaking
power and intermediate power, since their specific capital costs stay relatively low,
even in the case of a low utilisation factor.
could not compete because of the low Table 6.2. Indicative global prices of pri-
price of coal. At the same time, many mary energy in North America in 2013.
mothballed coal-fired plants were put
Fuel type Fuel price (€cnt/MJ)
back into operation.
The efficiency of converting Thermal coal 0.15
fuel into electrical energy is also a Nuclear fuel 0.10
determining factor for the fuel costs
Natural gas 0.24
expressed in €cnt/kWh. Table 6.3.
gives an indication of the fuel efficien- Light fuel oil 1.20
in the case of many new build nuclear Gas turbine combined cycle 55%
power plants, fuel scarcity would drive
Gas engine simple cycle 47%
up the price. Currently, nuclear power
130 Power supply challenges
GT SC
large fractions of wind and solar-based 3.5
generators in a system mean that fast 3.0
Modular gas engine GT CC
ramping up and down and frequent 2.5
starts and stops of fuel-based generators Coal
2.0
become common practice. The intro-
1.5
duction of wind and solar increases, Nuclear
1.0
therefore, the specific fuel costs of the
other power plants. 0.5
0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
6.3.3. Emission costs
Relative power plant output (%)
Table 6.4. Examples of CO2 emissions depending on power plant type and fuel (nom-
inal conditions).
Power plant type CO2 from fuel Nominal fuel efficiency Specific CO2
emission
g/MJ % g/kWh
certificates, resulting in a very low CO2 price of about 5 €/tonne as of early 2014. Such
a low price is clearly insufficient to finance CCS. A CO2 price of between 60 € and 80 €
per tonne would be needed for making CCS possible.
The CO2 emissions expressed in g/kWh depend on the composition of the fuel
and the fuel efficiency. Table 6.4 gives some examples for steady-state full-load condi-
tions of different power generating techniques.
If the CO2 price would rise to 80 €/tonne, the emission costs for coal-based
power plants would be more than 7 €cnt/kWh. This is due to the high CO2 emis-
sions from coal and the relatively low fuel efficiency of coal power plants. This is
illustrated in Figure 6.9. For a decreasing load, the fuel efficiency decreases and
7
Specific CO2 costs (€cnt/kWh)
Coal
6
CO2
5 80 €/tonne
4
GT SC
Mod gas engine
3 GT CC
2 Coal
GT SC CO2
1 Mod gas engine 20 €/tonne
GT CC
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Figure 6.9. Costs of CO2 emissions per kWh with two different CO2 price scenarios (fuel
efficiencies as in Figure 6.7).
132 Power supply challenges
therefore the CO2 costs rise. Even for a CO2 price of 20 €/tonne, the CO2 costs
of a coal-fired plant reach a level close to its capital costs as shown in Figure 6.6.
Apparently, the impact of pricing of CO2 emissions is so high that it can easily
increase or decrease the market viability of a generating technique. Gas-based
plants clearly have an advantage because gas releases less CO2 per MJ than coal,
while gas plants also have higher fuel efficiency. Gas turbine combined cycles and
power-plants based on multiple engine-driven generators have the lowest CO2
costs per kWh. Where engines are used in a combined heat and power plant, their
CO2 costs will be halved.
not been included in this. Each start and stop of a supercritical boiler or turbine adds
equivalent running hours to a power plant’s maintenance requirement. By contrast,
the maintenance costs per kWh of power plants based on multiple combustion
engine-driven generators do not depend on the load since individual generating
units will be switched off when the load decreases, meaning that the wear factor
consequently ceases. This is another advantage of modular plants in situations where
the need for fuel-based electricity is reduced by a substantial input from renewable
electricity sources.
In real life, the variable O&M costs can differ substantially from those shown
in Figure 6.10. Costs depend on the equipment quality, the fuel quality, as well as
the operating conditions, which can vary from easy to difficult. As an example, poor
quality black coal burns so slowly that boilers suffer from thermal overheating of the
burner grates.
When the utilisation factor of power plants is reduced, either because of poor
market conditions or through switching from full-time production to becoming a
backup plant for renewables, the fixed O&M costs per kWh output increas. Table
6.5 gives an overview of the published average fixed O&M costs. Also, these values
can differ substantially from case to case. A wind turbine with a capacity factor of
20% produces 0.2 ∙ 8760 h = 1752 kWh per year per installed kW. In that case, the
fixed annual O&M costs of 13 €/kW become 1300/1752 = 0.74 €cnt/kWh. A nuclear
power plant with a utilisation factor of 95% has fixed O&M costs of only 0.25 €cnt/
kWh. If that nuclear power plant would run only 4 months of the year at an average
output of 80% during the winter time to cover the lack of electricity production from
solar panels, the fixed O&M costs would be some 12/4 ∙ 100/80 ∙ 0.25 = 0.93 €cnt/
kWh. A modular plant based on gas engines used for peaking and secondary reserves
Table 6.5. Examples of fixed O&M costs for different power-plant techniques.
Hard-coal/steam 16
Lignite/steam 18
Nuclear/steam 21
Wind turbine 13
Solar PV 8
Hydro 8
134 Power supply challenges
only might have a utilisation factor of 30%, resulting in fixed O&M costs of 15 ∙ 100/
(0.3 ∙ 8760) = 0.57 €cnt/kWh.
20
18
Total kWh costs (€cts/kWh)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Hard Nuclear GTCC Mod. gas Onshore Offshore Solar Hydro
coal engine wind wind
Costs:
Total 6.06 5.34 4.68 4.72 9.34 12.17 19.61 1.4
CO2 1.6 0 0.73 0.85 0 0 0 0
Fixed O&M 0.2 0.25 0.13 0.19 0.74 0.57 0.61 0.1
Var. O&M 0.5 0.6 0.76 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4
Fuel 2.16 1.09 2.3 2.68 0 0 0 0
Capital 1.6 3.4 0.76 0.5 8.2 11.1 18.4 0.9
Figure 6.11. Total production costs of electricity where the CO2 price is 20 €/tonne, the
utilisation factor is 90% (except wind and solar) and the plant is running at full output
[coal price 0.24 €cnt/MJ, gas price 0.35 €cnt/MJ, nuclear fuel 0.10 €cnt/MJ, other condi-
tions from table 6.4 and 6.5 and Figure 6.10].
6. Costs of producing electricity 135
20
Total kWh costs (€cts/kWh) 18
16
14
12
10
0
Hard Nuclear GTCC Gas Onshore Offshore Solar Hydro
Costs: coal engines wind wind
Total 10.86 5.34 6.85 7.27 9.34 12.17 19.61 1.4
CO2 6.4 0 2.9 3.4 0 0 0 0
Fixed O&M 0.2 0.25 0.13 0.19 0.74 0.57 0.61 0.1
Var. O&M 0.5 0.6 0.76 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4
Fuel 2.16 1.09 2.3 2.68 0 0 0 0
Capital 1.6 3.4 0.76 0.5 8.2 11.1 18.4 0.9
Figure 6.12. Production costs per kWh with a CO2 price of 80 €/tonne [other boundary
conditions as in Figure 6.11.
control, are not included in the production costs. The costs given are purely for the
electric energy. For the conditions applying in Figure 6.11, the kWh costs of the fuel-
based power plants are around 5 €cnt/kWh and mutual competition is a good pos-
sibility. Hydropower beats all other sources in costs and that is why countries blessed
with such resources are very fortunate. Renewable energy based on wind and solar
radiation is costly because of low capacity factor. Again, the costs for backup capacity
for wind and solar-based electricity sources have not been taken into account.
Fuel efficiencies, O&M costs, and the price of equipment for fuel-based gen-
erators and hydro-electric plants are not expected to change drastically in the near
future. However, major uncertainties exist for the costs of CO2 emissions and fuel.
Should the price of coal be 0.15 €cnt/MJ instead of 0.24 €cnt/MJ, the costs per kWh
of the coal-based plant would drop from 6.06 €cnt/kWh to 5.25 €cnt/kWh. If the
price of CO2 is 5 €/tonne instead of 20 €/tonne, the cost of coal-based electricity is
only 4 €cnt per kWh instead of 6.06 €cnt/kWh. If the gas price would be 0.7 €cnt/
MJ instead of 0.35€cnt/MJ, which is currently the case in Europe, combined cycle
and modular gas engine-based plants would have electricity costs of about 7 €cnt/
kWh instead of around 4.7 €cnt/kWh.
136 Power supply challenges
4
(€cts/kWh)
0
Hard Nuclear GTCC Gas Onshore Offshore Solar Hydro
Costs: coal engines wind wind
Marginal 4.16 1.69 3.53 4.05 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4
CO2 1.6 0 0.73 0.85 0 0 0 0
Var. O&M 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4
Fuel 2.16 1.09 2.3 2.68 0 0 0 0
Figure 6.13. Marginal kWh costs for a utilisation factor of 90% and a nominal load for
the boundary conditions of Figure 6.11.
Figure 6.13 gives only the marginal costs of producing electricity for the
boundary conditions of Figure 6.11. In this case, the renewable electricity sources
beat all other power generators. Fully depreciated power plants, for example many
old coal plants, have a substantial advantage over new gas-based power plants.
And again, if the coal price would be just 0.15 €cnt/MJ instead of 0.24 €cnt/MJ,
the CO2 price 5 €cnt/tonne instead of 20 €/tonne, and the gas price 0.7 €cnt/MJ
instead of 0.35 €cnt, the gas-based plants would be fully pushed from the market.
The coal-based marginal electrical energy costs would be only 2.4 €cnt/kWh,
while the gas-based marginal costs would be about 5.7 €cnt/kWh. Some owners
of power plants even leave the maintenance costs out when offering electricity to
the market. They will run their power plant until the moment a major overhaul
becomes necessary and then decide if it is worthwhile to carry out the necessary
maintenance actions or to close down the power plant. In free electricity markets,
everything is possible.
The story this far illustrates the difficulty power plant investors face in making
the proper choice for a power plant. The situation gets even more complicated when
many renewable electricity sources are taken into the system. A utilisation factor
16
Total kWh price (€cts/kWh)
14
12
10
0
Hard Nuclear GTCC Mod gas Large scale
Costs: coal engine hydro
Total 11.73 15.95 7.54 6.64 4.31
CO2 1.76 0 0.83 0.86 0
Fixed O&M 0.76 1 0.48 0.71 0.34
Var. O&M 0.83 1 0.83 0.52 0.6
Fuel 2.38 1.2 2.55 2.68 0
Capital 6 12.75 2.85 1.87 3.37
Figure 6.14. kWh costs where the utilisation factor is 24% and the plant is running at a
generator output of 60% [other boundary conditions as in Figure 6.11.
138 Power supply challenges
of 90% and running only at 100% load will seldom be possible anymore for power
plants.
Chapter 3 shows that even without renewable electricity sources, the average
capacity factor of a real power-plant portfolio is hardly higher than 50%. The Irish
example shows that when wind energy provided 16% of the electrical energy, the
utilisation factor of the other power plants was only 39%. Without wind power, the
utilisation factor would have been about 47%. If the Irish wind-based capacity were
to double, the utilisation factor of the power plants drops to 32%. Yet, the power
plants need to be able to supply peak demand as long as no energy storage system
is available for covering a lack of wind output. The German case shows that solar
panels there have a lower capacity factor than wind turbines. Therefore, the backup
capacity for solar panels generally has a higher utilisation factor than the backup
capacity for wind. However, the daily variations are larger for solar than for wind
energy. This makes investing in power plants even more complicated.
In the hypothetical case that a power plant will only run at a fixed load of 60%
and be online for only 40% of the time, its utilisation factor is only 0.6 ∙ 40 = 24%.
The electricity production costs will then be much higher than when running 90%
of the time at 100% load. The production costs per kWh for the 60% load case are
given in Figure 6.14. The low utilisation factor means that those power plants that
require high investments per kW cannot compete anymore because of the burden
30
Households
Industry
25
20
15
10
0
Belgium
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
United Kingdom
USA
China
Denmark
Figure 6.15. End user electricity prices in different countries (sources: EIA, Eurelectric,
Eurostat, www.europe.eu).
6. Costs of producing electricity 139
6.7. Conclusions
This chapter has shown that the costs of producing electricity with generators oper-
ating in competitive markets depend heavily on unpredictable boundary conditions.
6. Costs of producing electricity 141
This makes it extremely difficult to predict the profitability of existing power plants,
and especially that of future power plants. Political interference, fluctuating fuel prices,
and the increasing amount of subsidised renewable electricity sources heavily affect the
ultimate cost of electricity.
Despite the many uncertainties, new power plants are definitively needed over
the coming decades because of the crucial role of electricity in the economy. Renew-
ables alone cannot effectively cover the total electricity demand in the foreseeable
future. Flexibility is the key to coping with the uncertainties in power generation
systems. Where hydropower is not available, the best means for achieving flexibility
appears to be modular gas power plants based on combustion engine technology.
7 Future power
supply systems
Future power supply systems require first and foremost flexible power generation
to ensure system reliability and optimisation at the lowest possible cost. Flexible
generation enables sustainability by allowing large amounts of renewable energy –
while maintaining grid stability. Agile, fast-reacting generating units offer optimum
solutions for the many challenges that power supply systems face. This chapter
shows how power plant portfolios can be optimized with flexible generating units
in different supply systems.
144 Power supply challenges
7 500
5 000
2 500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks of the year 2012
Figure 7.1. Power demand pattern in the German 50 Hertz Transmission area during
the year 2012.
7. Future power supply systems 145
Power (MW)
10 000
electrical energy was almost entirely one-
7 500
directional, from the power plant to the 5 000
consumers, electricity demand patterns, 2 500
and consequently electricity production 0
patterns, were quite predictable. The effect 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
MW can carry this baseload. However, power plants require Peak load
regular maintenance so that an additional reserve plant of
700 MW is needed as backup to guarantee sufficient avail- Intermediate load
ability. In addition, sufficient primary reserves have to be
available in case one or more power plants are down. One
option for this is to run 11 power plants, each of a 700 MW Base load
nominal capacity at a load of 636 MW, to supply the 7 GW.
Running at 91% load has no severe negative consequences
for fuel efficiency and increases the capital costs per kWh Figure 7.3. The different modes of gener-
by only 10%. When one of the baseload plants fails, the ating capacity in which has to be invested
146 Power supply challenges
remaining ones have to ramp up to 700 MW within 30 seconds when following the
typical Continental European rule for primary reserves.
Secondary reserves are needed to add extra power to the system so as to
restore the frequency to 50 Hz so that the primary reserves can return to the pre-
contingency output. Therefore, 636 MW should be allocated for secondary reserves.
An alternative is to add another 700 MW power plant to the baseload portfolio and
run each of the twelve power plants in parallel at 583 MW, equalling 83% load. A
much better solution, however, is to use a quick-start non-spinning power plant of
636 MW. Engine-based generating units can deliver full output within some five
minutes after the start command, as has been shown in chapter 3. The benefit of this
is that the eleven online baseload plants that satisfy the 7 GW demand can remain
running at 91% load with, therefore, better fuel efficiency than when running at 83%
load. Moreover, a non-spinning power plant does not accumulate wear while waiting
to perform its task as a secondary reserves provider. In addition, such a power plant
requires a considerably lower investment than a dedicated baseload power plant, (see
figure 6.6). The ultimate output reliability of a non-spinning reserve power plant
based on, for instance, 25 identical units in parallel, is much higher than that of a
single unit.
In addition to the secondary reserves, another 636 MW of non-spinning tertiary
reserves has to be present to release the secondary reserves following a contingency.
Typical steam-based power plants can never provide full output from standstill
700 MW 10.36 GW
Figure 7.5. An optimum power plant portfolio to satisfy the demand pattern of figure 7.1.
within the required time span of one hour, as required for tertiary reserves. More
agile power plants offer a solution in this case.
To fulfil the power demand as shown in figure 7.1, intermediate generation is
also needed in the demand range between 7 GW and 11 GW. This requires another
4 GW of capacity to be regularly is online. Intermediate demand is characterised
by power ramping up in the morning and down in the late evening, especially on
weekdays. The 4 GW can be supplied by 10 units of 400 MW each. The reserves for
intermediate power generation can be warranted by the reserves allocated for the
baseload plants. Yet, a reserve plant for intermediate power is needed because the
other generators need regular maintenance.
Peak demand, occurring less than 30% of the time, requires 2 GW of agile power
plants plus a reserve unit to cover maintenance. Again, in a simple approach, 11
plants each of 200 MW are required. One of these power plants can also be used for
compensating for errors in forecasting demand. Figure 7.5 gives the resulting power
plant portfolio to cover the demand shown in figure 7.1.
In 2012, the total electric energy demand was 85.5 TWh in the 50Hertz TSO
region. With the power plant portfolio proposed in the previous paragraph, the fif-
teen plants dedicated to baseload including the reserves would produce 7 GW · 7884
h = 61.5 TWh from an installed capacity of 13 ∙ 700 MW + 2 ∙ 636= 10.37 GW. This
yields a utilisation factor of 61.5 TWh/(10.37 GW· 8784 h) · 100% = 67.5% for the
baseload plants.
148 Power supply challenges
Figure 7.2 shows that the intermediate load, between 7 GW and 11 GW, will be
needed about 51 % of the time. That can be converted into 4 GW · 8784/2 h = 18
TWh. Therefore, the 4.4 GW of the eleven intermediate load plants would have a
utilisation factor of 46.6%. The 2.2 GW of the eleven peaking units would produce
the remaining 85.5 – (61.5 +18) = 6 TWh with a utilisation factor of 31.0%. The
combined portfolio has a utilisation
factor of 57.4%. Optimised generation portfolio
In real life, the utilisation factor of a 100
power plant portfolio is generally lower 100
40
30
20
10
0
AT BE CZ DE DK ES FI FR GB GR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE
Figure 7.7. The utilisation factor of the power plant portfolio of 22 EU countries in 2012
(data from Eurelectric).
7. Future power supply systems 149
For selecting the best generating techniques for the power plant portfolio shown
in figure 7.5, chapter 6 of this book clearly shows the best options from an economic
point of view. The thirteen 700 MW baseload power plants in our example could
be nuclear or coal-fired plants. The remaining two 636 MW plants in the baseload
portfolio have to be more agile and flexible, since they have to provide the secondary
and tertiary contingency reserves. The intermediate plants could be gas turbine
combined cycles and the peaking units could be simple-cycle gas engines and gas
turbines. Hydropower, if abundantly available, would be the first choice for all; base-
load, intermediate load, as well as peak load.
The total costs of producing electricity with the power plant portfolio proposed
in figure 7.5 can be determined with the methods shown in chapter 6. Planners and
economic analysts for power plants have traditionally followed the methodology
described here and used investment costs and variable boundary conditions for such
items as fuel prices to determine the competitiveness of a typical power plant type.
In the old days, the only option for secondary reserves was spinning power plants.
The current availability of agile power plants that offer non-spinning reserves means
that fuel consumption, maintenance costs and investment costs can be decreased.
Power (MW)
shows that such a situation occurred 7 500
only a few times in 2012. However, the Demand minus
5 000
expansion of renewables capacity has renewable contribution
2 500
not ended. Therefore, high outputs from
renewable electricity sources can easily 0
push all other generators from the grid if –2 500
their output is not curtailed, exported or 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
15 000
12 500
10 000
Power (MW)
7 500
5 000
2 500
–2 500
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks of the year 2012
Figure 7.10. Power demand minus the contribution from renewable energy sources
contribution in the 50Hertz TSO region during the year 2012
The consequence of the wind turbines and solar panels in the 50Hertz TSO area
in Germany is a substantial variability in the difference between total power demand
and the contribution from the renewable sources. This difference, i.e. the amount of
electricity demand to be covered by power plants and possibly imports, is shown in
figure 7.10. Comparing figure 7.10 with figure 7.1 reveals that designing a power plant
portfolio is now much more complicated than before the introduction of renewables.
From weeks 4 to 6, renewables hardly contributed towards the satisfying of demand.
For example, in the beginning and the end of the year, as well as during week 13,
their output sometimes exceeded power demand. Baseload power plants could still be
applied occasionally up to a capacity of 5 GW, but they had to be frequently switched
off if all the renewable electricity was to be accommodated in the area.
A major difference between the patterns in power demand from power plants
in figures 7.1 and 7.10 is the much higher variability in figure 7.10. In week 3, 2012,
an example of a rapid increase in the required power supply from power plants can
be seen.
Figure 7.11 is a sample of the relevant data in a narrow time span. Wind turbine
output decreased rapidly from 5 GW to 2 GW in the morning, while power demand
increased substantially. Power plants had to add some 6 GW in output within a time
frame of 5 hours from a starting point of 4.5 GW. During a period of two hours,
the required increase was even 1.5 GW per hour. For nuclear and coal-based power
plants, such increases in output after a length of time at standstill are close to impos-
sible. The issue is also that for this occurrence, the initial demand for power from the
power plants was quite low. If steam-based power plants had to cover the balance, it
would only have been possible if they were running at a drastically reduced output
152 Power supply challenges
(GW)
figure 7.11 show that a 30 minutes earlier 6
or later than predicted change in wind
5
power can make more than 1 GW differ- Demand minus renewable output
ence in the required power plant output. 4 Renewable decrease 30 minutes earlier
Renewable decrease 30 minutes later
The increased variability and higher fore- 3
casting errors mean that power plants 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
have to be able to ramp up much faster Time (minutes)
than forecasted or delay their increase in
power output. This is not easy for typical Figure 7.11. A sample of an occurrence event in the 50 Hertz
baseload power plants. TSO area in Germany, when the wind turbine output dropped
Ramping up and down the output drastically while power demand increased
from power plants is becoming a serious
issue where there are many wind turbines and solar panels in the system. In partic-
ular, it is the relative change in output, i.e. the required change in output divided by
the actual output, that causes difficulties. As an example, ramping up within half an
hour from an initial total combined power plant output of 3 GW to 6 GW is much
more difficult for a portfolio of steam-based plants than ramping up from 9 GW to
12 GW.
Figure 7.12 shows that where there is no wind and solar based power supply in
the system, the relative change in demand from power plants per 30 minutes is gen-
erally lower than + or –15% of their output. With renewable sources in the system,
the change lies most of the time within + or –50% per 30 minutes, a factor three
higher than in the case of no renewables. As a consequence, power plants have to be
much more flexible and agile than in the past.
It should be mentioned here that the relative changes in demand minus renew-
ables shown in figure 7.12 have been calculated based on the presumption that power
plants always provided at least 1 GW of the power demand, even though the renew-
ables sometimes produced more than the total demand. If this presumed minimum
limit of 1 GW would not be applied for the diagram, there would appear occasional
excursions to very high percentages in the relative change in power demand minus
that of renewables. As a result, the figure would become unreadable. However, in
reality the relative changes in load for the power plants will occasionally be even
much higher than those indicated in figure 7.12.
It is clear that a power plant portfolio having significant baseload capacity, as
shown in figure 7.5, is not the proper option where there is a substantial amount of
7. Future power supply systems 153
100
Relative changes in demand minus
75
renewables per 30 min (%)
50
25
–25
–50
–75
–100
–20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15 20
Relative changes in power demand per 30 min (%)
Figure 7.12. Comparison of ramping-up and ramping-down rates in power output from
non- renewables with and without renewable sources in the system (based on data from
50 Hertz TSO, year 2012)
power based on wind and solar radiation in the system. In this example from the 50
Hertz TSO area in Germany, only a moderate 27.6% of the required electric energy
came from wind and solar. The intention in Germany and in many other countries
too, is to opt for much higher percentages of renewables, meaning that the typical
baseload for power plants will no longer exist. Consequently, conventional nuclear
and coal-based power plants are ultimately becoming obsolete.
Table 7.1. The effect of curtailing renewable power output on rejected renewable output
(year 2012 data).
from the renewables would have been rejected. 139 GWh is only 0.6% of the 23.6
TWh of electric energy produced by wind turbines and solar panels in the 50Hertz
TSO area in 2012. The 545 GWh is still only 2.3%. That’s why policy makers and
decision makers really have to consider if it is worthwhile capturing the occasional
high outputs from renewable sources.
Storage facilities for capturing the excess renewable energy in the case of the 2.5
GW minimum dispatchable power would need an input power capacity of 2.5 + 2
= 4.5 GW, since the electricity production from renewables occasionally exceeded
demand by 2 GW. Since the excess energy to be stored is 521 GWh, a utilisation
factor of 521 GWh/(4.5 GW ∙ 8784 h) ∙ 100% = 1.3% would result for the storage
system. An investment in batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air, or hydrogen
for such a low utilisation factor will never be economic. Even an investment in new
transmission lines to export the excess electric energy would not be economic.
Exporting in combination with storage of the excess energy might be an option if
sufficient existing transmission capacity is available, and if storage capacity could be
offered by already existing hydro capacity from neighbouring Norway, for example.
Geothermal
power Coal-based
until
Hydro obsolete
Bio waste
power
Bio waste 12 GW Nuclear-based
Wind
turbines until
obsolete Gasifier
8 GW
Solar PV
Gasifier panels 4 GW Agile
3 GW power
Gas-based generator
smart cogen
1 GW 4 GW Gas-turbine
Biomass
(co-)firing combined
cycle
1 GW
Pumped
hydro
Natural gas 250 GW Demand
resource & 3 GW management Natural gas
storage Heat use and system resource &
storage storage
1 GW
Export GRID
Import
Figure 7.14. Suggestion for an optimum power supply portfolio for the 50Hertz TSO
case in 2012. The red arrows indicate energy flows towards and from the grid, while the
green arrows indicate fuel gas flows.
156 Power supply challenges
combinations of the cogeneration units will operate as dispatchable and flexible fuel-
based generators, should there be insufficient electricity from renewables. Denmark
is currently introducing this hybrid solution using electrical heating in combined
heat and power installations.
It might also be a good idea to start installing electrical heating coils to gas-fired
domestic heating systems and water boilers. This is not expensive. Installing electric
heat pumps in combination with a heat storage system is another promising option.
With further expansion of volatile renewable electricity sources, much more short-
term excess electricity will enter the supply system and that can be put to excellent
use to reduce the consumption of gas, oil, and coal for heating water.
Apparently, the German 50Hertz transmission system operator has been able to
keep the electricity system stable during 2012 with the help of existing power plants
and through exports and imports with neighbouring areas. A brand new dedicated
electricity supply system would, however, be different from the current one. A sug-
gestion for such a system is given in figure 7.14.
The maximum electricity demand in the region is 14 GW, as shown in the demand
distribution curve of figure 7.2. In addition to the installed 12 GW of wind-turbine
power and 8 GW of solar, 1 GW of biomass-based power is present in figure 7.14 as
a renewable resource. Furthermore, the 3 GW of agile cogeneration installations have
been equipped with electric heating coils in their heat-recovery systems. Also, 3 GW
of electricity can be absorbed by domestic and commercial boilers and heat pumps.
Pumped hydro and imports/exports are both given a capacity of 1 GW. An additional
250 MW of demand reduction has been made possible with smart appliances and
similar savings. This might mean temporarily switching off 125,000 washing machines
or tumble dryers. Apparently, maintaining grid balance with smart domestic appliances
requires quite an effort. A better solution might be to reduce the demand from large
users, such as cooled warehouses.
A total of 4 GW of combined cycle gas turbines has been added for covering the
intermediate load during times of low wind and sunshine. A further 4 GW based
on flexible and agile machinery has been added to provide power for fast ramping
up and down, to compensate for forecasting errors, and for non-spinning secondary
and tertiary reserves. The maximum size of an individual power plant in the system
should not exceed 300 MW. Otherwise, the tripping of a generator cannot be com-
pensated for properly by the primary reserves offered by the other generators.
The total capacity including the demand management system as shown in figure
7.14, is sufficient to cover maximum demand and to absorb the bulk of the excess
output from the renewable sources. The system can easily be prepared for a future
with double the amount of wind and solar-based generation by installing more elec-
tric heating using boilers and heat pumps. A fleet of hybrid and fully electric vehicles
will offer additional flexibility in electricity demand. The fuel-based power plants
will inevitably have a low utilisation factor, but their investment and operating costs
will be low due to the application of relatively cheap gas-based techniques and non-
spinning reserves.
7. Future power supply systems 157
10 000
8 000
Power (MW)
Load
6 000
Others
4 000
2 000 Wind
0 Solar
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Time of the day (hours) Time of the day (hours)
Figure 7.15. Power demand and supply in the 50Hertz TSO area for two different days
in May 2012.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Figure 7.16. A flexible power plant based on multiple agile engines in parallel.
The suggested 4 GW of agile flexible generation in figure 7.14 can easily provide
the fast ramping required. If the weather forecast predicts that the output from the
renewable sources will remain low for eight hours or so, the suggested 4 GW of
combined cycles could be started up and a large number of the engine-driven units
could be gradually switched off. Some flexible power plants should stay online for
frequency control, load following, primary reserves, and for compensating for fore-
casting errors.
For satisfying the power demand on May 25, 2012, there is a sufficiently long
time span for the installed capacity of combined cycles to reach their full output of
4 GW. The peaks in demand of up to 8 GW can nicely be covered by agile power
generation. Even if more combined cycles were available, starting them up for these
peaks would not be worthwhile because
of the short time that they are needed.
Any residual demand can be covered 50
by the the projected cogeneration plant 48
Kilowatthour/capita/year
46
engines that would otherwise be utilised
44
little in May because of the low heat 42
demand. 40
Using batteries or other storage 38
devices might help a little for smoothing 36
34
the load patterns indicated in red in
32
figure 7.15, but the energy required to 30
charge the storage device has anyway to 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
be generated by fuel-based generators in Time (year)
this case. Investing in storage facilities
can only be considered if the renewable Figure 7.17. Example of an emerging economy: the devel-
sources produce a substantial amount of opment of the per person electricity use per capita in Ethiopia
excess energy during the day for a large (data from IEA).
7. Future power supply systems 159
fraction of the year. That might be the case if the renewable portfolio of the 50Hertz
TSO area will be double that of the situation in 2012. Even then, prolonged periods
of no wind and sunshine will occur, so backup power based on fuels is required
anyhow. It should be mentioned that agile flexible power plants do not require
smoothing of their output to achieve optimum efficiency.
When there is a high share of wind and solar power in the system, the fuel-based power
plants should be:
• Agile to provide faster ramping up and ramping down than has traditionally
been the case
• Fast so as to compensate for forecasting errors in the output from wind and
solar
• Not too big so that the tripping of a single plant can be compensated for by a
minimum amount of primary reserves
• Fast so that the amount of primary reserves can be limited, even with a low
amount of inertia in the system
• Fast to offer non-spinning secondary reserves
• Close to the load to avoid voltage collapse by the reactive power supply over
long transmission lines
• Inexpensive with low capital costs since their utilisation factor will be low.
reliability and efficiency. This solution also offers the possibility to expand the size of
the power plants gradually to meet growing demand. Rapid economic growth can be
expected as soon as a community gets access to reliable and affordable electricity.
The power plants should initially be able to run on different fuels. Many remote
locations do not yet have access to natural gas, so heavy fuel oil (HFO) is often the
only feasible energy source until such time that demand is high enough to allow the
construction of gas pipelines. Dual-fuel engines can easily run on both types of fuel.
Moreover, it is foreseen that bio fuels, wind turbines, geothermal power, hydropower,
and especially solar panels will play an increasing role in emerging economies. Sun-
shine is often abundant and the costs of solar panels are decreasing. Power plants
consisting of multiple agile units in parallel that can sustain many starts and stops
offer the proper backup for renewable sources. Most probably, emerging economies
will ultimately bypass the concept of using large conventional fuel-based power
plants.
7.6. Conclusions
This chapter has discussed possible power plant portfolios for industrialised countries,
for countries with ambitious targets for renewable energy sources and for emerging
economies. It appears that in all cases a high share of agile, flexible and reliable power
plants is needed. Flexible power generation will be much more important than smart
appliances, smart meters, and smart grids. Flexible power plants are a good solution
for balancing electricity supply systems and are needed to bridge periods of low output
from renewables. They are essential for developing affordable, reliable and sustainable
power supply systems.
8 Power supply
challenges – A review
The previous chapters describe the challenges of maintaining a stable , reliable and
affordable electricity supply with much intermittent renewable power in the system.
Reduced rotating inertia requires power plants with high agility. Large fractions of
reactive power cannot be supplied via transmission lines. A disappearing baseload
demands more flexible power plants that are capable of starting and stopping
frequently. The utilisation factors of fuel-based power plants will decrease.
The crucial decisions required for obtaining a more sustainable global energy
supply have to be based on a thorough knowledge of all the aspects described
in this book. In any case, future power plants have to be agile and flexible. This
chapter reviews the issues so as to remind the reader that optimum solutions
depend to a large extent on variable boundary conditions.
164 Power supply challenges
40
DR = 2.5%; life = 40 years
DR = 10 %; life = 20 years
30
DR = 10 %; life = 40 years
20
10
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Figure 8.2. Capital costs per kWh produced for solar panels depend on the boundary
conditions (DR = discount rate).
compete with the electricity costs from the grid. However, such statements can be
made only if the boundary conditions are known. First of all, the costs of installation
and grid connections have to be included. Figure 8.2 gives an example of the capital
costs of solar panels per kWh produced, depending on panel life and the discount
rate DR (the interest rate) that the owner requires.
If a private consumer is happy with a discount rate of 2.5 % and the panel life is
20 years, the costs of electricity from PV panels in a sunny location might approach
5 €cnt/kWh, which easily results in grid parity. For a professional investor who
desires a 10% discount rate in an area where the capacity factor of PV would only be
10%, electricity from an identical panel costs almost 25 €cnt/kWh. Panel life does
not have a large effect on the capital costs when the discount rate is high. Conversely,
with a low discount rate the effect is considerable. In conclusion, to talk about the
grid parity of renewable energy sources without giving the boundary conditions is
misleading.
When the costs of renewable energy are discussed, the costs of backup capacity,
either from storage systems or generators, are generally not taken into account. Yet
backup is always needed for solar panels and wind turbines. Chapter 6 has shown
that the actual price a consumer pays for electrical energy can be higher by a factor
of three than the production costs. This is because of profit rates, distribution costs,
government levies and taxes. Therefore, the real cost of creating a sustainable elec-
tricity supply depends on many factors.
150
% of average power demand
125
100
75
50
25
0
Power demand Wind 20% cap factor Wind 35% cap factor
Figure 8.3. Low capacity factors of renewable energy sources result in high variability
in their output.
of its average electricity demand by wind power, the disturbing effect depends heavily
on the capacity factor of the wind turbines. This is illustrated in Figure 8.3.
If the capacity factor for wind parks is 20%, which is normal in a country like
Germany, and a third of the electricity demand has to be covered by wind, the
maximum wind output can exceed even the maximum demand for electricity. As a
result, the grid is heavily disturbed and curtailment of wind output is often required.
However, if the capacity factor is 35%, as is possible in optimum locations, the max-
imum in wind output is slightly less than the average demand for electricity. In this
case, the wind output exceeds demand only occasionally during times when demand
is below average. Figure 8.3. illustrates this. Identical situations can occur with solar
power.
Another effect of having a substantial share of electricity from renewables is that
the remaining fuel-based generators often have to very quickly ramp their output
up and down. They have to start and stop frequently, and have to compensate for
substantial forecasting errors. At the same time, these power plants need to be much
smaller in capacity than in the past in order to ensure grid stability during contin-
gencies.
Solar panels in hot climates, where peak demand for electricity coincides with
peak sunshine, can have an effective smoothing impact on what the fuel-based gen-
erators have to supply during the daytime. However, where a large fraction of elec-
tricity demand is covered by solar panels, other generating capacity will experience
high ramping up rates in the evening when the sun sets.
8. Power supply challenges – A review 167
energy efficiency as low as 25% and would add to the costs of electricity consider-
ably. Moreover, hydrogen deteriorates the quality of natural gas.
Natural gas in combination with smart agile generators offers an excellent option
as backup systems for keeping electricity systems balanced over extended time spans.
Using natural gas only as a transient fuel and burning it all as quickly as possible
during the first half of the 21st century is not wise. One should save the gas as much
as possible for creating flexible backup over a much longer time span.
8.6. Agile, flexible power plants help to ensure a reliable and cost-
effective power supply
Ideally, flexible power generation is based on local power plants each having multiple
identical generating units in parallel. The size of each individual generator in such power
plants is limited so as to create sufficient flexibility in output and to guarantee a high
combined availability. The investment costs in such a system are relative low because
of the uniformity and series production, while the lead time needed for engineering,
procurement and construction is short because of the standardised units. Maintenance
costs per kWh and fuel efficiency are independent of the power plant’s output. The gen-
erators can be switched on and off without reducing the interval between maintenance
work. The generators provide non-spinning reserves, as well as adequate reserves for
forecasting errors since they can start up in less than a minute and deliver full output
within 5 minutes. Maintenance is easy since it is fully standardised.
The agility of these power generators makes them suitable for lifting the burden
of frequency control and rapid up and down ramping from less flexible power plants.
They can provide fast primary reserves that are needed when inertia in the system is
diminishing. They can also offer secondary reserves without spinning. These advan-
tages will lower the total costs of electricity production.
In systems with a substantial amount of renewable electricity sources, smart fast-
reacting power generators offer the optimum solution to keep the system balanced
Figure 8.5. Power systems can be reliable, affordable and sustainable in the future – if
we make the right choices now.
170 Power supply challenges
in an affordable and reliable way. Furthermore, smart poweragile generators are the
ideal solution in emerging economies, where power demand is initially low but likely
to accelerate rapidly. Their output flexibility and load-independent fuel efficiency and
maintenance costs make them the cheapest option for guaranteeing high reliability
in the electricity supply.
Appendix 1
Background physics and mathematics regarding the role of inertia in power systems
A car with a mass m at standstill at the top of a slope has so-called potential energy due
to gravity. Gravity is the force with which the earth ‘pulls’ at the car. This force is pro-
portional to the mass m of the car and the factor g. The factor g is called the acceleration
of gravity. The value of g depends on the position of an object on earth, but generally
a value of 9.81 m/s2 is used. The potential energy Ep of the car at the top of the slope
with a height h equals:
Ep = m · g · h Equation A1.0.
As soon as the brakes of the car are released, the static force of gravity starts the car
moving down the slope. Without an external force, the mass of the car would never
move. The mass of an object can be seen as resistance against change in motion: mass
means inertia. Because of the force of gravity, the car develops speed. This speed is called
velocity v in physics. If road friction and air resistance are neglected, all potential energy
will be converted into speed-related energy, known as kinetic energy in physics. The
kinetic energy Ek of an object depends on its mass and its speed:
E k = ½ mv 2 Equation A1.1.
If the height of the slope is 50 metres and the mass of the car is 1200 kg, the potential
energy Ep of the car equals:
The international system for units uses the following prefixes to shorten large numbers:
k (kilo) = 1000
M (mega) = 1000,000
G (giga) = 1000,000,000
T (tera) = 1000,000,000,000
P (peta) = 1000,000,000,000,000
E (exa) = 1000,000,000,000,000,000
Z (zetta) = 1000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Y (yotta) = 1000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Appendix 1 173
As soon as the car has reached the bottom of the slope, all its potential energy has been
converted into kinetic energy. Equation A1.2 reveals that the car will have a speed of:
If the brakes of the car are then applied, the kinetic energy will be converted into heat.
The 0.59 MJ of kinetic energy is enough to heat up water for only 13 cups of tea. This
illustrates that storing large amounts of energy as potential energy via, for instance, ele-
vating masses of pumped hydro, or as kinetic energy in a flywheel, is not an easy task.
A physical object that can rotate around a shaft also has inertia. It means that
without an external force, or momentum in this case, the object will not start to
rotate. Conversely, if the object is rotating, it will need an external force to slow it
down again. The momentum applied delivers energy to the object, and that energy is
again stored as kinetic energy in the object. The inertia of objects that can rotate is
called the moment of inertia I.
The moment of inertia of an object depends on its mass m and the distance r of
that mass to its shaft. A disk has a moment of inertia I equal to ½ m r2 , and the I of a
thin ring equals m r 2 .
The moment of inertia of a generator together with the prime mover that supplies the
generator with energy closely resembles that of a disk.
The kinetic energy Ek of a rotating object equals:
For a small change in frequency, the derivative of equation A1.3 gives the amount of
change in the rotating energy:
dE
= 4π 2 I f Equation A1.4.
df
174 Appendix 1
Or:
dE = 4π 2 I f df Equation A1.5.
By combining the two last equations, for the instantaneous change in frequency due to
unbalance in power we can write:
df ΔP 2 1
= If Equation A1.10.
dt Pn n 2fτi
At t = 0, when the unbalance ΔP just occurs, f = fn, so:
df ΔP fn
at t = 0 = Equation A1.11.
dt Pn 2τi
This means that the initial inclination in speed change for a system with an inertia constant
τi is determined by the fraction of the unbalance in power ΔP of the nominal power Pn.
In which a is the percentage of load change per Hz and Pinitial is the initial load.
As soon as the primary control reserves Ppc step in, the unbalance will be further reduced
and equation A1.15 has to be rewritten as:
a
df ΔP – 100 Pinitial (fn – f) + Ppc ) 2 1 Equation A1.16.
= fn
dt Pn 2fτi
Equations A1.15 and A1.16 are quite complicated to integrate mathematically, but
numerical integration with small steps in time gives a good approximation.
Figures 2.7, 2.11, 2.12 and 2.13 in Chapter 2 are the results of the numerical integration
of equations A1.15 and A1.16.
176 Appendix 2
Appendix 2
Power plant performance during a major fault in the system
Faults and failures are unavoidable and occur in any system. Faults in electricity supply
systems generally mean deviations from a normal situation caused by external events,
such as a falling tree, lightning, animal actions and vandalism. So-called failures result
from equipment malfunctioning and weak grids. Human error is also a cause of unde-
sired occurrences. A failing generator resulting in a power plant trip causes a sudden
unbalance between electricity production and consumption, as described in chapter 2.
For a generator, a short circuit in a transmission line is a fault to which it will respond.
This section will describe in general terms what happens with a generator in the
case of a short circuit in the grid. A detailed technical description of all the dynamic
events would, however, require a separate book. Here, it is important to understand
what the consequences of a short circuit are for a power plant and the grid. Fortu-
nately, grids are equipped with instruments that detect anomalies. As soon as a
major problem such as a short circuit is detected, the relevant grid section will be
isolated via breakers. Modern grid protection equipment is capable of taking such an
action within 150 milliseconds. Nevertheless, during a limited time, a short circuit
can have a severe effect on grid voltage, leading to a substantial loss of load for gen-
erators that sense the voltage.
With a so-called bolted short circuit, the voltage drops to zero and the generator
loses its external load. A stepwise loss of load implies that a generator will accelerate
Fuel Speed/load
supply controller
n
P
Flywheel
Voltage/power
factor
controller
Figure A2.1. Control circuit of a prime mover driving a generator in a generating set.
The prime mover cannot instantaneously reduce its power output should there be a loss
of load caused by a short circuit in the grid.
Appendix 2 177
100
90
80
70
Voltage (%)
60
50
Energinet dk
40 German Transmission Grid Code
(FRT to zero voltage depent on distance of the WT from PCC)
30 National Grid
20 PSE-Operator
REE
10
0
–500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Duration of short circuit (ms)
Figure A2.2. Examples of different fault-ride through rules in Europe prior to a uniform
ENTSO-E rule being implemented.
its rotational velocity for a while. The reason is that the prime mover that is driving
the generator cannot reduce its power output immediately. If the generator has a
higher speed than the grid frequency, the voltage of the generator can be consider-
ably turned out of phase with respect to the voltage of the main grid. In that case,
a return of the grid voltage after the corrective action by the grid protection system
can cause damage to the generator set and lead to system instability.
The risks of damage to the generating set and instability of the grid are the rea-
sons that in the past local generators, such as cogeneration installations and wind
turbines were disconnected from the grid as soon as the voltage exceeded specified
limits. Reconnection took place after the grid voltage returned to normal. How-
ever, with a substantial amount of decentralised generators in a system, this tradi-
tional approach might result in the available generating capacity immediately after
clearance of the fault being insufficient. The relative number of large, high inertia
generating units that traditionally helped to run throughout grid faults can be low
when output from wind turbines and solar PV panels is significant. This is why grid
operators nowadays specify that all generators supplying energy to the grid should
have fault-ride-through capability, so that they can support the grid during and after
a calamity. It means also that the generator has to provide reactive power to the grid
during the occurrence. Afterwards, the generator has to deliver the same power to
the grid as before.
As mentioned earlier, if the load of a generator instantaneously disappears, the
fuel supply to the prime mover that drives the generator cannot immediately be
reduced. For turbines, it takes time to decrease the opening of the fuel supply valves
178 Appendix 2
N
two revolutions of the engine shaft are
Direct current for
N
needed to consume the fuel already sup- S the magnetic field
plied to the cylinders. Two revolutions
of an engine running at 750 rpm already Drive shaft AC voltage
occupy 160 ms. The fuel supply to a
prime mover should not be drastically
Electric energy
cut off during a short circuit, since after
the occurrence the rules declare that
the generating units should again deliver Figure A2.3. Schematic representation of a generator with
their initial output. two pole pairs: m = 2. (picture taken from google images).
In a first approach to study the effect
of a short circuit on a generator, a synchronous generating unit can be seen as a
prime mover, such as a turbine or an engine, which drives a rotating magnet in a set
of stationary coils. The rotating magnet is called the rotor and the stationary part is
called the stator. The voltage V generated in the stationary coils is directly propor-
tional to the running speed n and the magnetic flux Φ from the rotor:
In grid-parallel operation, the grid dominates the frequency and voltage. For the
generator to produce electric energy, the angle of the rotor’s magnetic field had to
lead the phase angle of the voltage of the stator by the so-called load angle δ. Simply
said, the magnet has to pull at the grid via a virtual spring in order to transfer energy
to the stationary coils. The load angle δ increases with the relative power output of
the engine-generator combination. Under steady-state conditions, the load-angle
curve versus the generator output has a roughly sine-wave shape: if the load angle
exceeds 90°, the generator has reached its pull-out or tipping torque and the system
becomes unstable. The load angle also depends on the strength of the magnetic field,
where a stronger field (= more magnetisation) leads to a smaller load angle. Simply
said again, if the pulling spring is stiffer, the spring expands less for a given force.
For commercial generators, the electrical load angle ranges between 15° and 60°.
The physical, or mechanical, rotor angle δlm can be found by dividing the electrical
load angle δle by the number of pole pairs m. This pole-pair number m is 1 for an n
= 3000/min machine in a 50 Hz grid, and m is 4 for a generator running at 750/min
in a 50 Hz grid. With a stronger magnetic field from the rotor than is necessary for
generating the required voltage, the generator current will lead the voltage (capaci-
tive character). This means that the generator produces the reactive current needed
for the inductive loads of the grid. In this case, the load angle is smaller than in
Appendix 2 179
3.0
Pull-out torque or
tipping torque
2.5
2.0
Power P
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Electrical load angle (deg)
Figure A2.4. Example of steady-state generator output versus electrical load angle δle
for a typical electrical load angle of 24° and a nominal power P of 1.
the case of a rotor field that is just sufficient to produce the necessary voltage. With
lower excitation than needed to produce the grid voltage, so-called under-excitation,
the generator needs reactive current from the grid and the load angle is larger. With
a larger load angle, the stability of the generator is smaller. The ‘spring’ is weaker in
this case. If the load angle exceeds 90°, the so-called pull-out or tipping torque is
passed and the generator will start to spin faster than the grid. This is called pole
slip.
With a synchronous generator unit in grid-parallel operation, two extreme situa-
tions can occur: instantaneous disconnection from the grid by the generator circuit
breakers, or a short circuit in the connected grid. In both cases, the load of the gen-
erator is lost. Loss of the electric load means that the driving energy from the prime
mover will start to accelerate the generator.
A simplified example will now show how the speed of the generator and the
angle of its poles with respect to that of the grid might change in the case of a full
loss of load. In reality, the situation with a short circuit is not so dramatic, since the
grid voltage generally does not drop to dead zero. We can re-write equation A2.3 in
terms of the angular rotor speed ω = 2πf, and describe how the running speed of the
generating unit will increase in time (= accelerate) with a loss of power ΔP:
dω πΔP
= f Equation A2.6.
dt τi Pnominal nominal
180 Appendix 2
Δφlm = πΔP
f t2 Equation A2.8.
2τi Pnominal nominal
Equation A2.8 can be re-written in degrees instead of in radians (π = 180°). For a
full loss of load, ΔP equals Pnominal, so that:
100 790
Mech load angle
Electr load angle
Mechanical + electricial load angle (deg)
Speed (rpm)
80 780
Speed (rpm)
60 770
40 760
20 750
0 740
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Time (ms)
Figure A2.5. Example of a change in running speed and load angles with respect to the
central grid in the simplified case of a fully lost generator load.
Appendix 2 181
that recurrence of the full grid voltage after 150 ms will show a large mismatch in
running speed, voltage and phase angle. The situation when the grid returns can be
compared with that of connecting a generator to the grid with a mismatch in syn-
chronisation.
In reality, the case is much more complex. Between the location of a short cir-
cuit in the grid and the generator, generally a line section and a transformer with
impedance are present. In addition, a generator is equipped with damping windings
and has internal impedance. This will mitigate the extreme reaction as given in our
example. The real-life situation is so complex that only computer modelling with
many parameters can approach what will actually happen in practice.
In the context of this book, it is important to understand that a rapid temporary
reduction in power supply from the prime mover to the generator during a grid fault
helps to avoid a severe mismatch when the fault has been cleared. A flexible power
generator is able to sense the drop in voltage caused by the short circuit, and to react
with a temporary instantaneous decrease in output. Combustion engines have the
ability to retard the onset of combustion in the cylinders instantaneously, resulting in
a direct decrease in power output. When the grid voltage returns, the initial timing
will be immediately restored. Such a rapidly reacting facility creates the flexibility to
ride through a grid fault.
Dr. Jacob Klimstra
Senior Energy Specialist
‘It Hazzewâld’
Hazzeloane 3
Broeksterwâld
The Netherlands
“The book addresses both the challenges and possible solutions for future power systems,
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using JTCPPLJTBHSFBUSFGFS
clever illustrations and examples from around the world. This book is a great
ence for anyone
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ISBN 978-952-93-3634-0
ISBN 978-952-93-3635-7 (pdf)