Afghanistan-India & the World

Foreign policy of a country defines the future of a country to a greater extend as it decides two
crucial issues namely 1.National security 2.Economic Integration
Background
How did Afghanistan come to this condition?
Phase 1: British Empire(India) s! Emirate of Afghanistan
Afghanistan has een called the !grae"ard of Empires" as no single power was ale to
rein it completely in the past ecause its resisti#e tries this holds true e#en now
Afghanistan with free foreign policy as a nation was orn as a result of $hird Anglo%
Afghan &ar'1(1()
$hird Anglo%Afghan &ar'1(1()* +ritish Empire'India) #s. Emirate of Afghanistan
Wh" #ar?
+ritain was worried aout ,ussian influence on Afghanistan which would lead to
in#asion on India
+ritain had een trying to influence Afghan in its fa#our through large susidy to its
ruler ut ore less fruit as Afghan played the side which paid more which had earlier
resulted into -econd Afghan war'1./.01..1) effecti#ely enaled control o#er
Afghanistan till the death of Haiullah
Amanullah2 Haiullah third son too3 o#er amid power struggle in the 3ingdom
sensing he cannot retain power if he didn4t placate the conser#ati#es 2 decided to go
on war as the situation in +ritish India was sensiti#e post 5allianwala +agh
6assacre'1(1().Amanullah in#aded +ritish India
$esult%
+ritish had a tactical #ictory pushing ac3 Afghanistan army
+ut loss from the Indian side was high2 oth sides had their gains
Amanuallah managed to sta#e off the domestic crisis and gained free foreign policy
emerged as a independent state y the &reat" of $a#alpindi(1'1')
+ritain political gain remained in Afghanistan4s acceptance of (urrand line
(urrand line is a contentious issue etween Afghanistan and 7a3istan now
Phase ):*old #ar Era: &he +oiet interention
7ost Afghanistan independence the notale ruler of Afghanistan was 8ing 6ohammad
9ahir -hah2 rememered for his modern outloo3 estalished National legislature :
impro#ing the status of &oman
He uilt greater ties with the -o#iet ;nion arms purchases2 infra pro<ects = the height of
>old war2 this ecame eye sore for ;-A which estalished tie with 9ahir through ;-AI?
Instaility crept in when communist factions and Islamic factions of Afghan fighting each
other 9ahir was o#erthrown y his cousin 6ohammad daoud
India was the only country to recogni@e the so#iet ac3ed ?emocratic ,epulic of
Afghanistan in 1(.1s.
$his pushed ac3 Afghanistan to pre% modern state as Islamic forces were against any
change from traditional society
-o#iet ;nion deployed troops to pre#ent further control of militias 3nown as 6u<ahedin
$he ;-A assisted the 6u<ahedin in the war against -o#iet union
$he anti war sentiments in -o#iet union : new leader in power 6i3ail Aorache#
decided to pull out which was decided ased on the ,enea Accords'1(..)
$he Aene#a accords led to withdraw on oth sidesB;-A it considered a decisi#e #ictory
o#er -o#iet ;nion
6assi#e reduction in aids followed with the fall of -o#iet ;nion thus lea#ing a wea3
go#ernment under Na<iullah Ahamed@ei
Phase -: $ise of &ali.an:
$he wea3 go#ernment of Na<iullah fell and the 6u<ahedins too3 o#er the rule of
Afghanistan
6u<ahedins were primarily group of / Islamic organi@ations popularly 3nown as
!7eshawar /"
$he fall of go#t lead to in fighting under agreement etween the 7/ ,aani ecame the
7resident he was the ;N accepted 7resident e#en during the later $alian regime : India
too ac3nowledged him as the 7resident
A group of 6u<ahedins disappointed with the infighting etween ,uling 6u<ahedins
formed the $alian mo#ement2 they mo#ed to 7a3istani madrassas ased on the learning
there they estalished the $alian rule later in Afghanistan
$he infighting among the mu<ahidin4s : the ci#il war made them unpopular which lead
to rise in popularity of $alian in Afghanistan
$alian captured Afghanistan at their pea3 almost had control o#er (1C of Afghanistan
Dnly E countries recogni@ed them namely 7a3istan2 ;AE2 -audi Araia
$alian regime was lead y 6ullah 6ohammad ;mar
$alian regime'-eptemer 1((F%No#emer 2111) ecame #astly unpopular around the
world for its treatment of woman2 anning $G2music2dance
Al Haeda leader Dsama in laden shifted to Afghanistan from -udan
$he ;-A throughout pressured Afghanistan to extradite Dsama +in Iaden for his attac3s
on American Emassies throughout the world2 Afghanistan refused ties worsened to low
point with the -eptemer 11 Attac3s
$he +ush regime decided to o#er throw $alians militarily
$he ;-A along with NA$D forces launched /peration Enduring 0reedom along with
the Northern Alliance
$he war ended with top leaders escaping to 7a3istan including 6ohammad ;mar :
Dsama +in laden '3illed y ;-AJDperation code named /peration 1eptune +pear)
1orthern Alliance:
$he Northern Alliance is primarily a group of 2ulti ethnic opposition group
consisting of non 7astuns namely $a<i3s2;@e3s : Ha@aras .
$he $alians are primarily 7astuns.7astuns are the largest population in Afghanistan
accounting to K2C
$he Northern Alliance once a group with infighting <oined forces with America to
defeat $alians
Phase 3: Post #ar Afghanistan 4ar5ai $egime
7ost war +ush regime argued that the past mista3e of ;-A post -o#iet defeat where ;-A
left Afghanistan lead to the rise of terrorist organi@ations in Afghanistan hence the nations
must come forward to Nation +uilding of Afghanistan which was accepted y ;N
$he +onn Agreement was signed%to recreate the -tate of Afghanistan post American
In#asion of Afghanistan
+onn agreement called for creation of new constitution formation of Interim Ao#ernment
which was headed y Hamid 8ar@ai
$his was followed y elections which 8ar@ai won and is in his second term
$he ;nited Nations in#ol#es itself in nation uilding through ;nited Nations Assistance
6ission in Afghanistan';NA6A)
;NA6A%in#ol#ed in Afghan Ao#ernance : Nation +uilding 7rocess
America has een training the local forces to defend themsel#es post exit ut the current
strength of the Afghanistan National security forces is not expected to hold itself against
enemy onslaught post exit of western forces
2a6or *onferences held:
International *onference on Afghanistan7 Bonn *onference I ()881)
Ied to the appointment of Hamid 8ar@ai as leader of Afghan Interim Authority :
signing of +onn agreement. $aglineJ &he (ecade of &ransition
International *onference on Afghanistan7 Bonn *onference II ()811)
Held a decade after +onn I
-hift from ?ecade of $ransition'2111%2111) to ?ecade of $ransformation'211K%
212K)
1A&/ /.6ectie: Iea#e Afghanistan transferring power to Afghan National -ecurity
Forces y 211K
4ar5ai $egime /.6ectie: >on#ince &estern forces continue partnership of nation
uilding of Afghanistan through Foreign Aids till >ountry ready to stand on its own.
7a3istan oycotted the conference thus reducing the scope of conference to some
extend
>onference mentioned need for reconciliation with insurgents groups to further peace
process
Istan.ul Process()811 Istan.ul7)81) 4a.ul) a!k!a 9eart of Asia *onference
Focused encouraging co operation etween Afghanistan : its neighours
8ey areas of >onfidence +uilding measures'>+6)
Education2 student Exchange 7rogrammes'lead memer Iran)
?isaster 6anagement 'lead memer 7a3istan : 8a@a3hstan)
?rug traffic3ing 'lead memer ,ussia : A@erai<an)
$errorism : counter $errorism measures 'lead memers ;AE2$ur3ey
:Afghanistan)
>hamers of >ommerce : >ommercial Dpportunities 'lead memer India)
1A&/ *hicago *onference( )81) )
Held in >hicago2 meeting etween heads of NA$D
?iscussed #arious issues one of them eing Afghanistan policy
Endorse exit strategy of Afghan war
Iong term support : commitment to Afghanistan
7ower transition to Afghanistan forces
7ledge fund for Afghan forces de#elopment
(elhi Inestment +ummit on Afghanistan()81))
ADI partnering with >II : Afghanistan organi@ed in#estment summit on Afghanistan
to attract foreign in#estment on Afghanistan
Earlier in Istanul process the confidence uilding measure India was chosen the lead
memer of >ommerce and India followed it up with this summit pro#ing
Afghanistan4s importance to India
8ey areas of in#estment eing 6ining2 hydrocaron2 Infrastructure2 Healthcare :
$elecom
&ok"a *onference ()81))
$o3ya conference relates to series of conditions set y International >ommunity
8ey conditions eing hold fair elections in 211K
Impro#e access to <ustice2 accept International standards on human rights
Fight >orruption2$error Financing2money laundering
>ounter menance of illicit narcotics drugs through crop eradication and mo#e towards
alternati#e forms of Agriculture
(2C of non 7harmaceutical Dpium originate from Afghanistan worth LK illion
$he donors agreed to donate L1F +illion on acceptance of the ao#e conditions
Phase :: +ituation ; hand and +trategic Importance of Afghanistan
&estern approach in sol#ing the Afghan $alian crisis since Afghan war has een a
failure
&est is searching for a way to lea#e Afghanistan when the situation is worser than 2111
as the war has ecome unwinnale with the HaMMani : 7a3istani nexus hurting the
western forces adly
7lausile solution = ;- hand
&ithdraw y 211K
6aintain a military presence post 211K in some form
,econciliation with the insurgency groups operating from 7a3istan
$rain : ,euild Afghan National -ecurity Forces 'AN-F)
-ecurity transition to AN-F y 211K
,econciliation road loc3 as Non 7astuns 6inority ethnic groups oppose peace with
$alian as they fear oppression which in case may lead to a future ci#il war in
Afghanistan
In case of a ci#il war the situation might tilt towards 7a3istan : HaMMani networ3 which
could e detrimental for India4s security interests
India<s Position
India has een neutral so far in handling Afghanistan e#en during the $alian regime
India wor3ed with ;N recogni@ed go#ernment of +urhanuddin ,aani.
After the o#erthrow of $alian regime India continues to wor3 with 8ar@ai
Factors that affect India4s strategy are
$alian factor
Iac3 of unity etween 8ar@ai : &estern forces
,eduction of &estern troops
Impact of 7a3istan4s influence post western forces exit
India expects estalishment of a modern Islamic state free from $aliani : 7a3istani
influences as the ao#e forces would deny India the space to wor3 in Afghanistan
India has so far committed ;- L2 +illion for reconstruction is Afghanistan and cannot
turn lind eye towards such a strategically important country as it might affect the power
alance in Asia
India<s #ork in Afghanistan so far:
India : Afghanistan ha#e so far signed -trategic 7artnership Agreement during
8ar@ai4s #isit to India
India is the fifth +ilateral largest donor to Afghanistan
India4s assistance to Afghanistan can e categori@ed as E types
Humanitarian Assistance'e.g. food aid )
Infrastructure 7ro<ects
>apacity +uilding measures
2a6or Infra pro6ects ." India
>onstruction of 21. 3m road from 9aran< to ?elaram to facilitate mo#ement of
goods and ser#ices from Afghanistan to the Iranian order and2 onward2 to the
>hahahar 7ort '-trategic Importance for India earlier explained y 6runal)
>onstruction of the Afghan 7arliament
>onstruction and commissioning of -alma ?am power pro<ect 'K2 6&) in Herat
pro#ince
,estoration of telecommunication infrastructure in 11 pro#inces
-ourceJ httpJNNK.p.logspot.comN%&5u;-2w@1>EN$p+g(8c%
OINAAAAAAAAI%INI7Hs(fPf2f3NsK11NIndiaAfghanistan.<pg
Education and capacit" deelopment
,econstruction of Haiia -chool2 8aul.
O11 annual long%term uni#ersity scholarships sponsored y the Indian >ouncil for
>ultural ,elations for under%graduate and postgraduate studies for Afghan students
in India.
Indian Interests in Afghanistan:
India4s Interest in Afghanistan is not <ust in maintaining the alance towards 7a3istan
it also goes in the direction of economic purposes of trade on the long run
A stale Afghanistan would impro#e intercontinental trade for India through road
+y 211O2 India4s trade with Europe2 >I-'>ommonwealth of Independent states)
countries 2Iran2 Afghanistan and 7a3istan would e aout LO11 illion annually.
If 21 per cent of this trade were to e conducted through road2 L111 illion of Indian
trade would e passing through 7a3istan2 Afghanistan and the >entral Asian region.
$his will greatly help North Indian states in the region of trade
A stale Afghanistan would enale India to implement >onnect >entral Asia 7olicy of
India'explained earlier y 6runal)
$A7I pipeline could e implemented as this could fulfill India4s energy needs'$A7I
pipeline explained in 6runal.org )
India plans to push International North%-outh $ransport >orridor 'IN-$>) which a
stale Afghanistan can play a role through ?elaram09aran< Highway'Afghanistan)
#ia the >haahar 7ort 'Iran) ypassing 7a3istan in the process.
+oth ?elaram09aran< Highway'Afghanistan) and reach the >haahar 7ort 'Iran)
are funded y India
International 1orth-+outh &ransport *orridor (I1+&*):
IN-$> is a 6ultimodal networ3 from India passing through Iran and thus reaching
>entral Asia and Europe
$he route starts with 6umai'India) 0+andar Aas 7ort'Iran) 06oscow',ussia) 0
Northern Europe
IN-$> initiated y India2,ussia2Iran now <oined y 11 more countries
A@erai<a2Armenia28a@a3hstan28yrgy@stan2$a<i3istan2$ur3ey2;3raine2+elarus2Dman2
-yria2+ulgaria
-ourceJ$he Hindu
/ther *ountries:
Pakistan:
7a3istan plays a crucial role Afghanistan4s future
7a3istan4s o<ecti#es are diametrically opposite to that of India
7a3istan doesn4t want Afghanistan to align with India and wants it to pro#ide -trategic
depth against India
7a3istan has een gi#ing safe ha#en for insurgent groups to gain le#erage in Afghanistan.
7a3istan also wants to train the AN-F
$he Afghanistan 7a3istan relations ha#e impro#ed since -harif too3 charge : high le#el
en#oy 2foreign policy ad#isor -arta< A@i@ was send to Afghanistan.
8ar@ai accepted 7a3istan in#itation to 7a3istan also attended -harif4s sworning as 76
Afghanistan has order issues with regard to ;N recogni@ed ?urrand line which
Afghanistan doesn4t accept
Afghanistan 7a3istan $ransit $rade Agreement 'A7$$A) was signed etween the two
nations pro#ides easier transportation #ia 7a3istan of Afghan products
A7$$A allows dropping of Afghanistan goods to India ut doesn4t ta3ing ac3 Indian
goods ac3 to Afghanistan
Iran:
Iran see3s to pre#ent ;-A gain too much le#erage in Afghanistan as it might help ;-A to
attac3 Iran on the long run
Iran also wants to protect the -hia population in Afghanistan
Iran is also seen to arm $alian against ;-A
*entral Asian +tates:
>entral Asian -tates are seen to pro#ide 3ey assistance to ;-A to fly in troops to the
region
$he ;-A proposed New -il3 ,oad'N-,) see3s to ring Afghanistan crossroads
etween >entral : -outh Asia were >entral Asia states play a pi#otal role.
*hina:
>hina has played a limited role in Afghanistan23eeping an eye on Islamic uprisings which
could affect ;ighur community in >hina
>hina4s interest has een primarily on in#estment in minerals and other in#estment
oriented acti#ities also pro#ide some le#erage for its ally 7a3istan
&he 0uture Ahead
+tatus of 0orce Agreement=+trategic Partnership:
$he ;-A signed strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan yet it is different
from the -tatus of Force Agreement '-oFA)
-tatus of Force Agreement '-oFA) was earlier signed etween ;-A : IraM to retain
its forces there.
$he current partnership agreement stops short of such conditions as it claims after the
signing of the strategic partnership agreement the two countries would Qinitiate
negotiation on a +ilateral -ecurity Agreement4
$his shows lac3 of consensus etween the two countries which could hamper peace
after 211K 2depends on the troops that stay post 211K to understand the followup in
Afghanistan
$he future of staility in Indian su continent depends to some extend on the le#el
troops that is retained in Afghanistan that NA$D troops in Afghanistan are retained
&ali.an /ffice:
Dn 5une 1.2 211E2 with ;.-. and Hatari concurrence2 the $alian formally opened its
political office in Hatar2 simultaneously issuing a statement refusing future ties to
international terrorist groups
Expressing willingness to e#entually transition to Afghan go#ernment%$alian tal3s.
Howe#er2 the $alian #iolated reported understandings with the ;nited -tates and Hatar
y raising ao#e the uilding the flag of the former $alian regime and calling the facility
the office of the !Islamic Emirate" of Afghanistan
*onclusion
$he Future of Aeopolitical situation is Indian sucontinent largely rests on the staility in
Afghanistan after exit of NA$D forces : how the world handles the $aliani group and
Northern Alliance.
+y ,.Aditya
+ources:
httpJNNwww.mea.go#.inN;ploadsN7ulication?ocsN1/FPindia%and%afghanistan%a%de#elopment%
partnership.pdf
httpJNNwww.idsa.inNidsacommentsNIranfactorinIndiasAfghan7olicyPsspattanai3P2K1.12
httpJNNwww.idsa.inNstrategicanalysisNEFPKNIndiasAfghan7olicyP-mruti7attanai3
httpJNNwww.theguardian.comNcommentisfreeN211EN<unN2FNnato%talian%india%pa3istan
httpJNNwww.chathamhouse.orgNsitesNdefaultNfilesNpulicN,esearchNAsiaN1.1EppPindiaafghanist
an.pdf
httpJNNwww.fas.orgNsgpNcrsNrowN,IE1O...pdf
httpJNNnews.c.co.u3N2NhiNsouthPasiaN1FO21./.stm
httpJNNwww.ipcs.orgNarticleNpa3istanNonn%ii%from%transition%to%transformation%in%
afghanistan%EO2..html
httpJNNcarnegieendowment.orgN211EN1KN2FNistanul%process%ministerial%results%and%prospects%
for%futureNg1O<
httpJNNwww.nytimes.comN2112N1ON22NworldNnato%formally%agrees%to%transition%on%afghan%
security.html?pagewanted*all:Pr*1
httpJNNwww.idsa.inNidsacommentsN$he?elhiIn#estment-ummitonAfghanistanPgsachde#aP2F
1F12
httpJNNwww.unodc.orgNafghanistanNenNE#entsNto3yo%conference%on%afghanistan.html
httpJNNwww.thehindu.comNnewsNnationalNgloal%corridor%will%cut%cargo%transit%
timeNarticleEK/K22/.ece
+oo3JIndia Qs Neighourhood >hallenges in Next two decades y IN-$I$;$E FD,
?EFEN>E -$;?IE- : ANAIR-E-'I?-A)