1

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ESTIMATING ECONOMIC

DAMAGES FROM WRONGFUL TERMINATION

PRESENTED TO NAFE AT THE SEA CONFERENCE, NOVEMBER 20, 2010

Nora Ostrofe, MBA CEA AVA
Thomas Roney, President, Thomas Roney LLC

Estimating economic damages in a wrongful termination case, if the Plaintiff has not yet
found comparable alternative employment, is one of the most challenging assignments
that confronts the forensic economist. Unlike personal injury cases, there is no medical
professional to assist in estimating the duration of the period of loss or the costs
associated with mitigating damages. For some occupations, the use of a Headhunter or
Vocational expert can assist the economist, but frequently the client prefers to conserve
expert expenses and rely upon an economist only. Estimating the duration and magnitude
of economic loss following termination involves myriad variables, many of which are
difficult to predict, let alone quantify. The purpose of this paper is to identify those
variables that have been found to influence the magnitude and duration of the economic
loss of displaced and / or discharged workers in empirical studies. One caveat, we do not
propose here to provide the forensic economist with a general formula for valuing the
economic loss to discharged employees. As will be seen, the majority of studies we
reviewed in this paper doesnt address the job loss of a single worker from alleged
wrongful termination but concentrate on workers displaced by mass-layoffs or plant
closures, or the data used lack specific worker characteristics over a sufficient time period
to make meaningful conclusions. Wrongful termination cases are highly individual and
do not lend themselves to a one-size-fits-all solution. Instead, we identify those factors
that the forensic economist may wish to consider when valuing the economic loss in a
wrongful termination case and cite relevant empirical studies for that purpose.

Our paper draws upon recent studies
i
conducted on the duration and magnitude of
earnings losses following the loss of a job. Accordingly, it seeks to update earlier
writings
ii
on this subject in forensic economic literature, many of which relied upon data
that is now ten to twenty years old. We have reviewed, and included findings from, the
most recent studies we could identify, none published earlier than 2000. Also, while we
have yet to fully understand the ultimate effects of job loss during the Great Recession
that began in December 2007 and ended in J une 2009, we have included data from
contemporary articles that address the experience of job seekers in the current economic
environment.

A second caveat, as previously noted, many of the studies above relied upon data for
displaced or laid off workers, not workers who were terminated, and were specific to a
particular time and place. These are important distinctions. In many cases such workers
were displaced or laid off due to macroeconomic conditions (e.g., a recession) or industry
restructuring (e.g., the demise of manufacturing jobs in the domestic United States).
Accordingly, their difficulties securing comparable alternative employment at equivalent
2

earnings may be due to environmental factors that may or may not apply to a particular
wrongful termination case. Still, there are some similarities between displaced workers
and alleged wrongfully terminated workers: neither can expect to return to the former
employer; both will lose firm-specific capital; and both may have some stigma attached
to them as a result of their discharge.

Finally, our purpose is to provide practical assistance to the forensic economist in an
admittedly challenging task. At the conclusion of this paper, we provide Practice Tips
to offer guidance and data sources for further research.

Factors Influencing the Duration and Magnitude of Economic Loss Following the
Loss of a Job

Across the literature we surveyed, certain variables appeared significant in determining
either how long displaced or discharged workers sought alternative work and / or how
large difference was between their lost and their post-discharge earnings. These variables
fell into two categories, either variables that were amongst the individual characteristics
of the worker or the macroeconomic environment in which the worker found him/herself
seeking a job following termination. Worker characteristics found to influence the
duration and magnitude of post-termination economic loss were: age, sex, education,
tenure at pre-termination job, receipt of unemployment benefits, and duration of post-
termination unemployment. Environmental factors found to be similarly influential were:
industry within the job search was conducted (and whether the worker had to switch
industries to find alternate employment) and the macroeconomic conditions under which
the worker sought a job.

We discuss each variable at length as follows.

WORKER CHARACTERISTICS:

Age:

Worker age can be a prime determinant of the magnitude of loss in employment cases,
determining where the worker is in his or her career, the type of earnings level and
growth that can be expected, and the ease with which the worker can find alternative
employment.

Younger Workers:

Younger workers, ages 19 to 34, are often erroneously assumed to have little to lose from
job displacement. They have short job tenures and have not invested in a long-term career
with one firm. However, like older workers, younger workers have a higher probability of
job loss. And, young workers experience rapid earnings growth from human capital
acquisition (on-the-job training) the opportunity to acquire firm-specific and human
capital. In The Long-Term Costs of J ob Displacement among Young Workers, Lori G.
Kletzer and Robert W. Fairlie found that in the fifth year following job loss in 1980s and
3

early 1990s, displaced young men lost 8.4% and displaced young women 13.0% in
average annual earnings, relative to their non-displaced peers. Unlike older workers,
young workers did not experience a large decline in earnings following job displacement;
rather, their loss came from loss of the accelerated earnings growth young workers
experience while establishing their careers. These losses are magnified for college
educated workers.
iii


Workers of Prime Working Age:

Workers of prime working age, 35 to 55, may be the best positioned to mitigate their
losses by finding comparable alternative employment, but still experience significant
losses from discharge.

On average, a worker who lost a full-time job between 2001 and 2003 and found one by
2004 earned about 17% less per week than he or she would have earned had he not been
displaced, roughly double the average loss incurred by displaced workers in the 1990s.
This effect was magnified for better educated workers.
iv


A CBO study of recipients of Unemployment Insurance (who returned to work within 3
months of the end of their benefits during the 2001 recession) found average earnings
declines of about 15%.
v


Kenneth Couch and Dana Placzeks, Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers Revisited,
studying displaced workers in the state of Connecticut from 1993 to 2004, estimated
earnings losses of 32-33% for the quarter following displacement, and an earnings deficit
of 7% to 9% that persisted six years after termination.
vi


Older Workers:

It has been theorized that older workers, age 55 and above, are particularly vulnerable to
job displacement because they have developed highly remunerated human capital in a
particular position, company, and / or industry and are unlikely to recapture this return in
alternative employment. Employers may feel that the remaining worklife of older
workers is too brief to warrant the investment required to hire and train them. And, older
workers suffer from myths that persist about mature workers and discrimination against
the aged.

In the U.S. Department of Labor Displaced Workers Study, covering the years 1999
2001, approximately 70% of workers aged 20 to 54 years were re-employed within 3
years of their displacement, compared to only 50.90% of workers aged 55 to 64 years.
vii


The Couch study of displaced older workers found that losses were more sizable for older
workers than workers in their prime working years. Six years after displacement,
estimated losses for displacement were 14% of former earnings for workers aged 40 but
more than 50% for all workers age 57 or over. Losses varied by industry. Higher earning
workers in the manufacturing, business and professional services, and financial activities
4

industries sustained losses after six years that were more than double those in the
wholesale and retail trade industries. Earnings losses were also higher for workers who
changed industries. However, the study was not able to differentiate between lower
earnings due to displacement and lower earnings due to workers voluntary decisions to
engage in partial or full retirement following displacement (although the decision to retire
early may be a direct result of the layoff and consequent difficulty finding alternative
employment). Also, the study examined displaced workers in industries experiencing
workforce layoffs of 30% or greater, which may indicate that the industries in which the
laid off workers were employed were undergoing difficulty.
viii


In the MacPherson and Piette study of displaced workers from 1994 2000, Do
Terminated Workers Catch Up? older workers were found to have earnings losses that
increased with the age of the worker. Workers aged 30 39 experienced a 4.2% decline
in earnings in alternative employment; aged 40 49, a 6.7% drop; aged 50 59, a 7.1%
decrease, and aged 60 to 99, a 34.4% differential between pre- and post-displacement
earnings.
ix


In the aftermath of the so-called Great Recession that began in December 2007, older
workers face daunting obstacles to re-employment. Of the 14.9 million unemployed
workers in September 2010, more than 2.2 million (15%) are 55 or older. Of these, nearly
half have been unemployed six months or longer. In August 2010, the average period of
unemployment for job seekers aged 55-plus was approximately 39 weeks, longer than
any other age group.

The unemployment rate for this group is 7.3% in 2010; more than double what it was
before the recession began. Since it is projected to take years before the currently
unemployed find jobs, they may age out of the labor force before they are able to return
to work. (If the current pace of 82,000 new jobs per month continues, it will take 8 years
to create the 8 million jobs lost during the recession.)
x


Many in this cohort cannot afford to retire and face dwindling job opportunities, depleted
retirement accounts, and, if proposed increases to the Social Security retirement age are
enacted, delayed and / or reduced benefits.

Sex

In the MacPherson and Piette study of displaced workers from 1994 2000, Do
Terminated Workers Catch Up? women were found to experience a 6.3% decline in real
earnings due to displacement relative to men. Gender differences were also noted within
particular age groups. From age 40 to 59, males suffer a larger earnings loss from
displacement than do their female peers; however, females over age 60 suffer a larger
decrease in earnings after displacement than do males.
xi


In the Couch and Placzek study of displaced workers in the state of Connecticut over the
period from 1993 2004, annual earnings reductions for women in dollar terms ($7,367)
5

were comparable to those of men ($8,694), but were higher on a percentage basis, since
their pre-separation earnings were lower.
xii


Education

The types of jobs available to unemployed workers have become increasingly polarized
in recent years. In the early 2000s, high earning jobs that require significant education
and training grew rapidly alongside low wage service jobs. However, the number of
middle-skill, middle-wage (entry level white collar positions such as office and
administrative support and blue collar jobs like machine operator and assembly line
worker) have declined. The recession exacerbated this trend. From 2007 to 2009 there
was little change in employment in high and low skilled positions, but a significant drop
in employment in middle-skilled positions. A disproportionate share of job growth in the
recent expansion has been in jobs that pay below $15.00 an hour. In the recent downturn,
the unemployment rate has climbed the most for the least educated, as higher-educated,
higher qualified workers are re-employed first.
xiii


Tenure

J ob tenure or the length of time the terminated worker was employed or expected to be
employed by the terminating employer, can arise as an issue in wrongful termination
cases. The Plaintiffs historical tenure at previous jobs may be examined, and an average
tenure calculated. It may be suggested that the Plaintiff would not have worked longer for
the terminating employer than he or she worked for previous employers. Or, tenure
evidence may be introduced to argue that the Plaintiff has not lost an entire career with
the terminating employer, but only several years of his or her remaining work life
expectancy. Tenure is also a significant variable in determining post-termination earnings
loss. Workers with significant tenure with the terminating employer will be challenged to
match their pre-termination earnings.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an annual report of Employee Tenure that can
provide objective statistical data for the expected tenure of a worker. The report gives the
median tenure of workers by age, gender, education, industry, and occupation, and
provides the percentage of workers at various lengths of tenure within these categories. It
also reports tenure statistics for previous years, allowing one to determine how tenure
changes over business cycles.

Craig Copelands Employee Tenure, 2008 likewise tracks trends in employee tenure
from 1951 to 2008. Copelands study determined that over the past 25 years, employee
tenure has remained surprisingly stable. The median tenure of workers overall has been
5.1 years. The median tenure for men is 5.2 years, for women, 5.9 years. Tenure for
public sector workers is longer than for private sector workers. Median tenure for public
sector workers between 1983 and 1980 ranged from 6.0 7.0 years, for private sector
workers it remained at about 3.9 years. Nearly 10% of public sector workers have 25 or
more years of tenure.
xiv


6

In the MacPherson and Piette study of displaced workers from 1994 2000, Do
Terminated Workers Catch Up? workers were found to have earnings losses that
increased with the pre-displacement tenure of the worker. Workers with tenures between
2 and 5 years experienced a 4.1% decline in earnings in alternative employment; workers
with tenure between 5 and 10 years experienced a 9.2% drop; between 10 20 years, an
18.0% decrease, and greater than 20 years, a 26.4% differential between pre- and post-
displacement earnings.
xv


Application for / Receipt of Unemployment Benefits

Recipients of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits have been found to experience
longer durations of unemployment and / or higher differentials between lost and
mitigation earnings than unemployed workers who do not receive these benefits. This
could be because UI temporarily replaces a workers lost earnings, giving them less of an
incentive to accept a job offer than otherwise. Or, it is those workers who are less likely
to be re-employed quickly who seek unemployment benefits.

In the Couch and Placzek study of Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients in the state
of Connecticut over the period from 1993 2004, estimated earnings losses were 49% at
separation and 32% six years later. In a similar study in the state of Pennsylvania, the
losses were 66% at separation and 24% six years later. In both states, no long-term losses
were identified for non-UI claimants. Moreover, in the Connecticut study, UI recipients
who exhausted benefits had long term annual earnings losses 60% larger ($5,000) than
amongst UI recipients who received benefits for 3 months or fewer ($3,000).
xvi


Unemployment Insurance benefits generally end after 26 weeks (6 months) in a one-year
period. However, in 2009, more than 50% of UI recipients had not found a job by the
time their initial benefits ran out. Many received extended benefits for an additional 13
20 weeks. Emergency unemployment compensation, which provides 53 additional weeks
of benefits to people who have exhausted other UI benefits, was paid out to 5.6 million
people in the week ending March 20, 2010.

70% (11 million) of the 16 million unemployed people in March 2010 were receiving UI
benefits. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that in 2010, on average, 15 million
workers will receive 18 weeks of UI benefits at $300 per week.
xvii


Duration of Post-termination Unemployment

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports that over the past several decades, the
percentage of unemployment spells lasting more than six months has increased. It also
suggests that such long-term unemployment may result in serious problems for
unemployed individuals.



7

Their study of workers unemployed for longer than six months during 2001, 2002, and
2003 found that 8% of unemployed adults had unemployment spells between 2001 and
2003 that lasted longer than half a year, 29% had unemployment spells that lasted 5 to 26
weeks, and 53% had unemployment spells lasting fewer than 5 weeks. 70% of the
unemployment spells begun by adults between 2001 and 2003 resulted in the job seeker
taking a job; 25% terminated their job search, and the remaining 5% were still
unemployed when the survey ceased.

A special study of displaced workers (those permanently separated from their job from an
employer closure or move, abolishment of their position, or insufficient work to do)
conducted in 2003 found that 10% of displaced workers were re-employed immediately,
with no period of unemployment, 25% were re-employed within 1 4 weeks (average 2.5
weeks), 40% were re-employed within 5 26 weeks (average 14.5 weeks), and 25% were
re-employed after 27 weeks or more (average 57.2 weeks). Overall, the average duration
of joblessness for displaced workers was 20.9 weeks.

Even in periods of strong employment, it can take time to find a job. In 2006, one in six
(16%) unemployed workers had been unemployed for more than half a year. In recent
years, more than one-third of the unemployed workers who receive unemployment
benefits exhausted their entitlement to those benefits (usually limited to no more than 26
weeks over a one-year period). People who have been unemployed for a length of time
lose the opportunity to earn income, gain work experience, and obtain health insurance
and retirement benefits. Also, employers may interpret a prolonged spell of
unemployment as the result of an undetected flaw in the worker that other potential
employers have discovered, further decreasing their opportunities for re-employment.

Education is a strong determinant in the duration of unemployment. Workers who never
finished high school were more likely to be unemployed and remained unemployed for a
longer period of time. Although only 10% of the adults in the labor force had not
completed high school, 17% of unemployed adults and 20% of long-term unemployed
adults lacked a high school diploma.
xviii


MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Industry Job Search Conducted Within

Workers who left their prior industrial sector during recessions experienced the largest
losses of any group of displaced workers over the business cycle from 1993 to 2004.
xix


In the Couch and Placzek study of displaced workers in the state of Connecticut over the
period from 1993 2004, the 3 sectors experiencing the largest average annual worker
earnings losses the fifth year after job loss was: finance, insurance and real estate
($13,450); business and professional services ($12,093); and manufacturing workers
($11,108). Earnings for workers in the educational and health sectors ($2,021) had fully
recovered five years after job loss.
xx


8

Economic Conditions of Environment Job Search Conducted Within

The Couch study of displaced workers and the business cycle over the period from 1993
to 2004 in the state of Connecticut found long-term losses for workers that were
displaced during a mass layoff in a recessionary period were 1.7 to 3.9 times larger than
earnings losses from displacement experienced in a period of sustained economic growth.
Workers displaced during a growth period had sustained earnings losses between 5% and
9%; those displaced during a recession experienced sustained losses of 16 20%. On
average, in the sixth year after separation, workers who separated from employment
during a period of growth experienced earnings losses of 2.2%; those who separated from
employment during a period of recession experienced earnings losses of 9.4%. Overall,
the difference in earnings losses from displacement during a recessionary period was 7-
8% greater than during a period of growth.
xxi


Current economic data indicate that this recession will be more severe and prolonged
than previous recessions in 1980 and 1990. Already, unemployment statistics from this
recession exceed historical peaks. As of March 2010, 44% of the unemployed had been
unemployed longer than 27 weeks (slightly longer than 6 months). In addition, the
downturn in the housing market may prevent many workers from selling their homes in
order to relocate to find work. On average, people who have involuntarily lost a job see
their earnings decline and earning declines following job loss are exaggerated during
recessions. Those who lost jobs between 2001 and 2003 experienced an average earnings
decline of 14%. During non-recession years, earnings declines ranged between 5 8%.
xxii


CONCLUSION

The foregoing discussion of variables influencing the magnitude and duration of
economic loss following the loss of a job should provide the forensic economist with
some guidance as to the elements of a wrongful termination case s/he may wish to devote
particular attention and or research. For example, a wrongful termination case wherein
the Plaintiff is aged 57, is a high school dropout with 20 years tenure with her previous
employer, who worked in manufacturing, was let go during a recession and has exhausted
her unemployment insurance benefits, may not lend itself to the opinion that the Plaintiff
could have fully mitigated after a few weeks of looking for a job. Still, the degree to
which the foregoing variables should influence the projected duration of unemployment
and the magnitude of economic loss remains difficult to quantify and much of the
estimate is left to the art, rather than the science, of forensic economics.

We bemoan the lack of comprehensive, high quality studies on the empirical experience
of fired workers (let alone the special case of allegedly wrongfully terminated workers,
who have the additional baggage of a public lawsuit) and invite further contemporary
longitudinal studies of the experience of workers who have lost jobs across business
cycles, industries, and geographic areas.

9

Promising new research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the duration and
magnitude of lost income to discharged workers. Recent studies
xxiii
draw upon richer data
sources. These social security earnings records, matched with employer data, contain
longitudinal information spanning over 30 years on the earnings and employment
histories for large random samples of the United States workforce. Such studies will, we
hope, allow for better estimates of economic losses from job loss, and in particular, job
loss resulting from terimination.

PRACTICE TIPS

Estimating the Plaintiffs Projected Tenure with Terminating Employer

The Bureau of Labor Statistics news release, Employee Tenure in 2010, provides median
employee tenure with employer and percentage distribution by length of tenure for
employees by age, sex, industry, and occupation:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf

Craig Copelands tenure study, Employee Tenure, 2008, gives trends in employee
tenure from 1951 to 2008.

It may also be possible to access the defendant employers data on job tenure for specific
positions.

Assessing the Reasonableness of the Plaintiffs Post-termination Job Search Efforts

Plaintiffs should be prepared to produce evidence of job search efforts, including resumes
sent, recruiters contacted, networking engaged in, and interviews undertaken, etc.

The California state Employment Development Department has an online job listing
service and will, upon request, compile the number of openings in a specific occupation
over a particular period of time, indicating the number of opportunities that were
ostensibly open to the Plaintiff from date of termination to trial.

Similarly, private recruiting agencies may provide lists of openings that were offered
through the agency.

Newspaper microfiche archives can provide historical want ad pages that post
openings.

Estimating the Duration of Unemployment

Annual statistics regarding the average and median duration of unemployment (in weeks)
for workers by age, sex, race, industry, and occupation can be found on the Bureau of
Labor Statistics website under Unemployment Statistics National: Characteristics of the
Unemployed, Table 31:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/tables.htm#charunem
10

Monthly statistics can be provided upon request. However, the statistics provided are
national and not specific to particular geographic regions. You may wish to review local
and national unemployment rates of unemployment to determine whether unemployment
in the Plaintiffs job search area is greater, or less than, the national average and adjust
your estimate accordingly.

Estimating Mitigation Earnings

If a vocational expert has not been retained to opine on what the Plaintiff can expect to
earn, you may have to estimate mitigation earnings. If the Plaintiff will be seeking a job
similar to the one s/he lost, the economist can estimate mitigation earnings based on
current occupational wage surveys.

Occupational Employment Statistics surveys published online by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics give 25
th
, 50
th
(median), 75
th
, and 90
th
percentile earnings by occupation
nationally, and by region, state, and metropolitan statistical area (MSA):
http://www.bls.gov/bls/blswage.htm#State.

The Economic Research Institute (ERI) provides a commercial database (which must be
purchased) that offers wage data for specific geographic areas and by years of
experience: http://www.eri-salary-survey.com/

Salary.com provides salary and benefit information by zip code (but their methodology
for compiling wage data is opaque and may be considered less reliable than other
sources).

If the Plaintiff cannot return to his or her historical occupation and or industry, or has an
ill-defined work history, mitigation earnings can be estimated on the basis of the
Plaintiffs age, sex, race, and education using the age-earnings profiles found in the
Person Income or PINC tables produced by the Bureau of the Census Current
Population Survey: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032009/perinc/toc.htm.

Using the Triangle of Loss

Frequently, forensic economists (for lack of a better model) use the triangle of loss to
calculate economic loss in wrongful termination cases and assume that the workers
mitigation earnings rate will eventually catch up to his or her lost earnings rate over
time. This model is supported by economic theory. If the employee was indeed
wrongfully terminated, his or her lost earning level reflects the market value of his or her
labor. In a free market, the worker should again, in time, return to the market value of his
or her labor. However, the theory may not apply in many situations. Workers who are
compelled to change industries (e.g., manufacturing to service) or change occupations
(e.g., union to private employment) may never regain their former level of earnings.
Likewise, older workers whose earnings reflected a high level of firm-specific capital
(e.g., a worker with twenty years of experience and an encyclopedic knowledge of his
employers operations) may never prove as valuable to an alternate employer. Finally, the
11

labor market can be sticky and not as free as theory suggests. Empirical studies of
displaced workers indicate that losses may continue up to six years or longer following
termination and sometimes indefinitely.

Quantifying the Stigma of Wrongful Termination

Terminated workers who file suit are thought to suffer from multiple stigmas. First, they
were fired. Second, they filed suit. Accordingly, they present a prospective employer with
significant red flags: they may prove to be substandard workers, troublemakers, or
both. When applying for jobs alongside similarly qualified candidates without these
drawbacks, wrongfully terminated employees may appear to be less competitive, obtain
fewer job offers, and / or be offered lower compensation. Studies measuring the
difference in re-employment earnings between workers displaced by plant closures
(displacement without stigma) and those displaced from layoffs (displacement with the
suggestion that worker is of lower productivity than non-laid off peers) offer some
guidelines for quantifying the stigma attached to terminated workers. Stephen M.
Kosovich, in The Value of Layoffs and Labor Market Conditions as Signals of Worker
Quality, determined that laid off white collar workers experienced approximately 14.0%
lower weekly wages than those displaced from plant closures using data from the
Displaced Worker Surveys of 1996, 1998, and 2000. However, the stigma of being laid
off varied with local labor market conditions. An increase of one standard deviation in
the unemployment rate, from 4.9% to 6.8%, resulted in a decrease in the estimated stigma
from a 12.0% decline in wages to 4.60%. No evidence existed for a stigma effect for blue
collar workers.
xxiv



i
Roney, Thomas, Estimating the Duration of Economic Damages in Wrongful
Termination Cases: Recent Literature on Duration and Magnitude of Earnings Losses
from J ob Loss, Unpublished, Presented to the Western Economic Association
International: NAFE Session, Portland, Oregon, J une 2010.

ii
Zengler, Darryl and Inouye, Marianne, The Duration and Magnitude of Economic
Losses Following a J ob Dismissal, Unpublished, Presented to the American Academy of
Economics and Finance Experts, 2004 Annual Meeting.

iii
Kletzer, Lori G. and Fairlie, Robert W., The Long-Term Costs of J ob Displacement
among Young Workers, Department of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz,
J uly 1997, Revised J anuary 1999. [Funded under contract no. 41USC252C3 from the
U.S. Department of Labor.]

iv
Farmer, What Do We Know About J ob Loss in the United States?, as reported in
Longer Term Unemployment.

v
Long Term Unemployment, A CBO (Congressional Budget Office) Paper, The
Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, October 2007.

12


vi
Kletzer, Lori G. and Fairlie, Robert W., The Long-Term Costs of J ob Displacement
among Young Workers, Department of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz,
J uly 1997, Revised J anuary 1999. [Funded under contract no. 41USC252C3 from the
U.S. Department of Labor.]

vii
Zengler, Darryl R. and Inouye, Marianne, The Duration and Magnitude of Economic
Losses Following a J ob Dismissal Presented at the American Academy of Economic and
Financial Experts (AAFE) / 16
th
Annual Meeting Las Vegas, Nevada 3/31-4/2/04.

viii
Couch, J olly, Placzek: Earnings Losses of Older Displaced Workers: A Detailed
Analysis with Administrative Data, October 2007. (Reviewed 7/19/10).

ix
Macpherson, David A. and Piette, Michael J ., Do Terminated Employees Catch Up?
Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey, J ournal of Forensic Economics, Volume
XVI, Number 2, Spring / Summer 2003, pp. 185 200.

x
For the Unemployed Over 50, Fears of Never Working Again, Motoko Rich, New
York Times, September 19, 2010.

Dahl, Molly and Manchester, J oyce, Losing a J ob During a Recession, Congressional
Budget Office (CBO), April 22, 2010.

xi
Op cit., Macpherson and Piette.

xiii
Luo, Michael, New J ob Means Lower Wages for Many, New York Times, August
31, 2010.

xiv
Copeland, Craig, Employee Tenure, 2008, Employee Benefit Research Institute,
Notes, J anuary 2010, Volume 31, No. 1, pp. 2 12.

xv
Op cit., Macpherson and Piette.

xvi
Couch, Kenneth A., J olly, Nicholas A., and Placzek, Dana W., Earnings Losses of
Displaced Workers and the Business Cycle: An Analysis with Administrative Data,
J uly 2009.

xvii
Op cit., Dahl Molly and Manchester, J oyce.

xviii
Op cit., Long Term Unemployment.

xix
Op cit., Couch, Kenneth A., J olly, Nicholas A., and Placzek, Dana W., Earnings
Losses of Displaced Workers and the Business Cycle: An Analysis with Administrative
Data.

xx
Op cit., Couch, Kenneth A., J olly, Nicholas A., and Placzek, Dana W., Earnings
Losses of Displaced Workers and the Business Cycle: An Analysis with Administrative
Data.
13


xxi
Op cit., Couch, Kenneth A., J olly, Nicholas A., and Placzek, Dana W., Earnings
Losses of Displaced Workers and the Business Cycle: An Analysis with Administrative
Data.

xxii
Op cit., Dahl Molly and Manchester, J oyce.

xxiii
Von Wachter, Till, Song, J ae, and Manchester, J oyce, Long Term Earnings Losses
due to Mass Layoffs During the 1982 Recession: An Analysis Using U.S. Administrative
Data from 1974 to 2004, Working Paper, Columbia University, April 2009. URL:
www.columbia.edu/~vw2112/papers/mass_layoffs_1982.pdf

xxiv
Kosovich, Stephen M., The Value of Layoffs and Labor Market Conditions as
Signals of Worker Quality, The B.E. J ournal of Economic Analysis and Policy, Volume
10, Issue 1, Article 25, 2010.