business organizations Maximizing growth opportunities in Africa Contents Introduction Economic outlook Business environment Best practice Key localization strategies South Africa case study 4 5 8 13 17 20 4 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa Introduction In line with the globalization paradigm, Africa has become the new business destination for many consumer business multinationals over the last 10 years. It is considered as one of the most opportunistic markets and in recent years has seen entrance from some of the largest multinational firms worldwide. A key strategic question asked by many firms is how to best enter the African market. Hence, considering the economic and social challenges facing the African continent, this paper attempts to elaborate on the key principles and strategies that successful vendors are exploiting and key challenges they have encountered along the way. This paper begins with presenting a macro analysis of the economic indicators of the region followed by an overview of the business environment in Africa. Best practices from different aspects of business is the topic of the next section helping decision-makers devise optimal ways to exploit the available opportunities in Africa. The paper concludes with a number of key localization strategies, which can be considered and employed by leading consumer electronics multinationals. In line with the globalization paradigm, Africa has become the new business destination for many consumer business multinationals over the last 10 years Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 5 Africa is amongst the fastest growing economies in the world and an attractive destination for consumer business multinationals Economic outlook Africa is amongst the fastest growing resource-rich economies in the world with a total GDP of US$1.7 trillion in 2010 and offers relatively promising medium to long term growth prospects. Regional pursuits of major economic reforms, combined with higher government spending and strong foreign investments (particularly from China) have resulted in economic growth and strong recession recovery. Recent trends indicate that growth is increasingly driven by a burgeoning domestic market which is assessed to become the largest outside of India and China. In addition, recently Africa has become a major focal point for international initiatives (i.e. G8 summit, Nepad and the IMF) through various programs promoting macroeconomic stability, structural reforms and privatization despite major challenges (i.e. corruption, weak institutions and political instability). -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (e) 2011 (e) 2003 2002 2001 2000 China India Africa Brazil US Europe Figure 2.1 illustrates Africas steady but strong growth rate in comparison to other developed and emerging economies. Due to the challenges still facing Africa, China and India are forecasted to exhibit larger growth rates, while Africa remains closely behind reaching a forecasted growth rate of 5% by 2011. Figure 2.1 - Real GDP growth, 2000-11 (in %) Source: Africa Economic outlook 2010 6 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa In recent years, prior to the global crisis, international trade had been increasing rapidly. Africa only comprises 3% of the worlds exports. As such, a key objective for Africa will be to continue attracting investors beyond the profitable exploration of natural resources. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2014 (e) 2013 (e) 2012 (e) 2011 (e) 2010 (e) 2009 2008 2007 1 . 3 0 8 1 . 5 4 6 1 . 4 8 5 1 . 7 0 5 1 . 8 5 1 2 . 0 2 7 2 . 2 1 8 2 . 4 2 3 Figure 2.2 highlights the African GDP forecast from 2007-2014. In 2009, total GDP for the African continent reached USD1.5 trillion. In comparison, Chinas GDP was US$4.2 trillion and the US amounted to USD14.2 trillion. Regional integration initiatives Africa currently has 15 trade agreements which has helped boost intra-trade significantly in the region by introducing tariff reductions, and generally helping the flow of goods across borders. SADC (South African Development Community), which comprises over 50 % of all intra-regional trade may join COMESA (Common Market for Eastern & Southern Africa) to help spur regional trade by eliminating all tariffs between these two regions. 40% of total intra-regional trade is comprised of manufactured goods illustrating opportunities for produced and assembled consumer electronics within the African region. Figure 2.2 - Africa continent GDP, 2007-14 (in Billion US$) Source: IMF Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 7 Main trade agreements AMU ECOWAS EAC SADC COMESA ECCAS EU Nigeria South Africa Even with the current progression of the trade agreements, intra-regional trade still only accounts for 12% of total trade in Africa. Additionally there are still only a few countries that dominate intra-trade, including South Africa and Nigeria. This point highlights that government inefficiencies still remain strong within the region. Demographic transformation Africa's population is estimated at 997 million in 2010. This is considered relatively large in comparison to other regions, such as Europe with a population of 831 million. Nevertheless, Africa is beginning to experience a demographic transformation highlighted by declining birth rates, which is a well-known indicator for regional development. This decline in infant fertility is mainly an urban phenomenon and is significant in some of the more developed African countries (especially in Tunisia, Morocco and South Africa). Since 1950, Africa has experienced a growth rate ranging from 2.2% to 2.8%, in comparison to the global average of 1.4% to 1.7% during the same period. Africas total population is expected to witness a 2% growth between 2010-2014. Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa are amongst the most populated African countries, while Kenya is amongst the fastest growing. Figure 2.3 - Main trade agreements Figure 2.3 illustrates the complex network of regional agreements that have begun to overlap. Source: GTZ 8 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa Business environment Despite the progress made over the last 10 years including many investment initiatives launched by NEPAD-OECD, and others, the business environment in Africa is still quite underdeveloped. One of the most problematic issues for doing business in Africa is the power shortages which can considerably increase operating costs. In some countries such as Nigeria, power disruptions are witnessed daily and can account for losses of up to 10% of sales. Other more developed regions such as South Africa experience power shortages less frequently, however costs can still account for up to 1-2 % of sales. Macroeconomic instability within the region remains a concern for the overall business vitality. Other concerns for developing countries in Africa are the low administrative capacities, corruption and poor tax systems that can seriously affect economic development. Another challenge facing consumer business organizations entering Africa is the lack of skilled labor within the region, stemming from the low level of higher education. Some major challenges include poorly educated teachers, weak teacher unions and the large number of school dropouts. Efforts from institutions such as the Global Business School network are helping raise the level of education; however there still remains an insufficient skilled work force. Main business challenges comprise of macro-economic instability, under-developed infrastructure, low administrative capacities and lack of skilled labor The above figure illustrates that parameters such as inflation, corruption, social capital, unemployment rates,and infrastructure clearly lag behind. Among the sampled countries selected, Nigeria has the lowest maturity of business environment followed by Kenya, Egypt and South Africa. As illustrated below in Figure 3.2, the television penetration rate in Africa stands at around 40% or less than half the rate of Europe. Similarly, the Internet penetration rates, estimated at 5% are considerably lower than Europe and China; indicating growth opportunities in this sector. South Africa, Tunisia and Morocco are amongst the leading countries in terms of ICT penetration across Africa. In 2008, FDI inflows rose to a record USD88 billion despite the global crisis. North Africa attracted 27% of total FDI while the remaining sub Saharan countries attracted 73%. The largest portions of these contributions have been received by all the North African countries, South Africa, Nigeria and Angola. In 2008, companies in China accounted for US$5.6 billion value in cross border M&As and purchases. The main driving forces behind FDI are the need for resources and creation of new markets for products. A recent survey among Chinese private investors indicated that their FDI investments are market driven". Chinas interest in the African continent is no longer only within natural resources; the growing entries of Chinese companies are beginning to spread across all sectors of the African economy. Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 9 Egypt South Africa Kenya US Nigeria Education Economic Fundamentals Entrepreneurship and Innovation Democratic Institutions Governance Personal Freedom Social Capital Health Safety & security 100 80 60 40 20 0 38% 96% 89% 42% Internet penetration TV Penetration Europe China Africa 29% 5% Figure 3.1 - Business environment comparison Source: Deloitte research and analysis, 2010 Figure 3.2 - ICT enviroment, 2009 Source: Legatum prosperity index 2009 Figure 3.1 compares the business environment ranking in key markets, compared to the US. 10 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa Shifts in consumer spending patterns Leading indicators including the GDP per capita, urbanization rate and the growth of the middle class show a shift in African consumer spending towards more sophisticated goods. However basic spending still accounts for up to 50% of total consumption. GDP per capita in Africa is expected to grow at a rate of 8%, fueled by an expanding workforce and labor productivity. The urbanization rate, which is closely related to economic development, is growing at an estimated 4% in countries such as Kenya indicating that by 2025 cities in such countries will have doubled. The emerging middle class in many African cities and the rise of the so-called Afropolitans (cosmopolitan African group) have had an impact on the consumer lifestyle and behavior which has begun to target branded Western goods. This trend has been facilitated by the rise of credit facilities. The majority of Africa's emerging middle class consumers are found in South Africa, while others include Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and French speaking North Africa. An emerging middle class, and the rise of the Afropolitans (cosmopolitan African group) have significantly changed the lifestyle and purchasing behavior of African consumers Europe Africa Rural Urban 73% 27% 40% 60% Figure 3.3 shows that Africa's urbanization rates are still lagging behind developed regions. Source: Euromonitor Figure 3.3 - Rural vs. urban population, 2010 (in %) Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 11 Figure 3.4 illustrates that just under 50% of African household income is considered as discretionary and the remainder falls under basic needs. Developed markets Some markets in Africa have experienced a shift, resulting in more sophisticated spending patterns that can account for up to 50% of total spending on superior/luxury goods. These markets include the majority of North Africa, such as Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Egypt, as well as other economies such as South Africa. Consumers in these markets are dominated by a young population who are influenced by European tastes and product specifications. Additionally these markets are also associated with higher ICT penetration rates, which indicate a more knowledgeable and exposed consumer segment. In South Africa, spending is expected to grow by 8% in the coming five years, fueled by the increased spending power of the emerging black middle class ( the so-called black diamondphenomenon). Home furnishings and home improvements are the big beneficiary of the black diamond phenomenon, leading to greater sales of consumer electronics as well. International vs. local brands The evolution of consumer behavior can be exemplified in the recent shifts in product demands within the consumer electronics industry. Examples include the shift from twin tub to top load washing machines, from CTV to LCD screens and the shift from local to international brands. Within the African markets, local brands (such as Algerias Condor, Egypts Kiriazi, Nigerias Zinox and South Africas Defy, KIC and Sahara) still maintain strong market shares and continue to rely on consumer loyalty and strong price positioning. However, more and more of the international brands are entering and expanding in Africa successfully by introducing new products and services through concentrated advertising campaigns that are attracting new demand and changing consumer behavior patterns. Income Level % US $ Basic needs 24 < 2,000 33 2,000 - 5,000 Discretionary income 21 5,000 - 10,000 14 10,000 - 20,000 8 > 20,000 Figure 3.4 - Share of total Africa households by income bracket (in %) Source: Euromonitor 12 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa The African consumer is now more knowledgeable about product specifications and is aware of the international standards including technical quality and energy efficiency performance. Local brands are often unable to offer a similar range of products as their international counterparts. Some of the major challenges facing international brands, include: lack of strong relationships and networks, aggressive price competition from local brands, as well as inability to manage and control the large informal markets. Local marketing initiatives A key success factor for leading vendors in Africa has been aggressive marketing initiatives which have successfully increased brand awareness and consumer perception. Most African consumers associate the strength of a brand with the strength of its advertising and marketing activities. Consumer business market leaders have invested heavily in building brand presence/visibility through integrated campaigns and marketing mix programs, including: TV, radio, magazine, adverts, billboards, signage, demos, giveaways, warranty extension, POS and others. The recent World Cup in South Africa boosted the annual marketing budget of the consumer electronic giants. However, the underdeveloped state of the communications media and education levels in most of the countries makes it challenging to reach consumers with specific product messages on a constant and uniform basis. Most African consumers associate the strength of a brand with the strength of its advertising and marketing activities Stone window display Showrooms Store - witnin-store
Billboards Signage News paper/ magazine adverts Source: Deloitte research and analysis Figure 3.5 - Advertisement tools Figure 3.3 illustrates the most common advertising and marketing tools and activities used by leading vendors in Africa. Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 13 Best practice How to maximize growth opportunities in Africa? This section identifies the key success factors and challenges for expansion into the African region under the different aspects of undertaking business activities. Organizational structure One of the most challenging aspects facing leading consumer electronics vendors in Africa today is how to effectively cover the diverse regions with the optimum organizational structure. To begin with companies need to identify the most strategic location for the regional headquarter in Africa. Most models suggest that Dubai is the preferred location to use as a regional MEA headquarter. In some regions such as Eastern Africa and specifically Kenya, Dubai is considered as a cost efficient logistics hub since many African resellers have offices, warehouses and trade links with Dubai. Alternatively, South Africa is also considered a good strategic location, which can serve as a good export hub particularly for SADC. Most of the leading vendors have undergone an organizational restructuring in the last two years, increasing their local presence in the region by converting existing representative offices into subsidiaries which report to a regional headquarter. Trends show that the strategy of some industry leaders is to penetrate Africa through four main regional hubs, including: Morocco serving the Maghreb, Kenya serving Eastern Africa, South Africa serving the SADC and Nigeria serving Western Africa. On average leading vendors have between 5 to 10 local offices within the region. The largest markets, such as Egypt, South Africa and Morocco are also usually associated with more employees working out of the local offices. Some of the markets do not allow for a large local presence due to infrastructure and business risk concerns, such as: safety and security, poor internet and land line connections, transport and power issues. A key challenge facing leading consumer electronics vendors in Africa today is how to effectively cover the diverse regions with an optimum organization structure 14 | Deloitte GCC powers of construction 2010 | Building the future and growing stronger Roles and Responsibilities The general trends for the regional HQ are to take responsibility for setting marketing budgets and assisting with sales forecasts. Marketing campaigns are carried out through the local offices and generally customized to meet country market specifications. After sales service and logistics are also catered by the local teams. In addition, it is worth mentioning that industry leaders increasingly set up learning centers to ensure best practice sharing in the region. Figure 4.2 illustrates the main functions of regional HQs and local offices. Source: Deloitte research and analysis Regional HQ Local ofces Figure 4.2 Sales Forecasts Logistics Pricing Marketing After sales services Product planning Responsible Responsible Responsible Responsible Both Both Informed Informed Informed Responsible Responsible Responsible Morocco Local Ofce Geographic Coverage HQ Egypt Kenya Dubai Nigeria South Africa Figure 4.1 The key markets are marked with a local office to highlight the strategic importance of having local presence in these countries. The arrows show the coverage that can be utilized and captured from some of the key markets. As an example, South Africa can be used as a hub for export of products and control over the SADC region, while Kenya can be used as a hub serving the Eastern Africa region. Figure 4.1 - Optimum local presence Figure 4.2 - Main functions of regional HQs and local offices Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 15 Sourcing and assembly options One of the key challenges vendors face in keeping end prices competitive is the varying import tariffs. The major import regions all have varying tariff rates depending on trade agreements and relations with the respective country. Therefore it is advantageous to manufacture and import either locally or from strategic locations. General tariff CKD/SKD South Africa
25% 0 - 10% Key markets 30% 5 - 10% Nigeria
35% 5 - 10% Morocco
25% 0 - 10% Egypt Figure 4.3 highlights the gap between general import duties and CKD (Complete Knocked Down)/ SKD (Semi Knocked Down) import taxes of consumer electronics goods in South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco. Figure 4.3 - Import duties vs. CKD/SKD duties (in %) Local manufacturing: benefits and challenges Benefits Elimination of shipping costs Avoidance of exchange rate risk Reduction of time to market Support of local communities (hiring of local people) Reduction of parallel imports Challenges Political instability Ever-changing government regulations High corporate taxes and labor wages Restrictive local regulation Adopting CKD/SKD will bring benefits such as reducing product cost significantly for local and neighboring markets. It will also bring serious challenges especially in countries with stricter government regulations. As an example, in 2009, Algeria obliged all foreign investors to meet the complimentary finance laws which include a 49/51 mandatory investment share with an Algerian investor. Also, in most of the countries, vendors are required to reach a minimum integration rate in order to realize the lower import tariffs. Distribution and channel trends Overall, the market channels within Africa are relatively underdeveloped and mainly led by traditional and informal retail formats such as table-top sellers in open markets, roadside shops and street hawkers. These channels could sometimes account for more than 85% of trade volumes within specific consumer electronics categories. Informal retailing is expected to remain as one of the strongest channels in the short to medium term (up to five years). This is mainly due to the social, cultural and economic challenges that support informal retailers in cities and villages across the continent. Modern (formal) channels such as hypermarkets, electronic specialists and brand specific showrooms are still scarce in most African countries and are mainly present in the more advanced markets such as South Africa and Tunisia. The hypermarket concept has substantially changed and shaped new consumer habits by providing better after sales services and product guarantees, free delivery schemes and in-store financing. Old-style retailers are expected to lose attractiveness in face of aggressive competition from hypermarkets. Moreover, showrooms have still not fully materialized and account for marginal share of channel sales. They are mainly seen as a strategic investment to increase market visibility. Overall, positive indicators show that formal retailing penetration rates are excepted to rise in line with projected growth in the labor force, urbanization, and emerging middle class consumers in Africa, in particular in its less developed parts. Parallel markets The African market presents distributors with the challenge of dealing with parallel markets and the need to form strategies in order to effectively manage them. Parallel markets develop where goods are sold outside of their authorized channels of trade. Generally this market exists because price differentials exist in how goods are sold in different markets. The biggest issue with this market is that the manufacturers distribution arrangement and their ability to control quality within the distribution process become undermined. Parallel markets exist within all African countries but to varying extents North Africa being one of the worst affected due to its close proximity to Europe. The more developed markets of South Africa and Egypt are affected to a lesser extent and have a greater majority of legitimate imports thanks to the direct local presence of manufacturers on the ground. Traditional/ informal retailers and outlets are expected to lose attractiveness in face of aggressive competition from hypermarkets 16 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa Key localization strategies Establish local offices The presence of local offices is essential in order to meet specific in-country needs. Successful implementation of marketing, sales and distribution strategies are directly dependent on the ability to understand the needs of local consumers and having a good grasp of factors driving market conditions. Local knowledge can also be effectively gained from employment of local staff. Set up local assembly plants Establishment of local assembly plants (SKD/CKD) will allow for effective positioning over price. It also translates to faster times to market and more flexibility for reacting to changes in demand and competitor strategies. Invest heavily in marketing Successful marketing campaigns can help increase brand awareness and positively change consumer perception of the product offering. Penetrating local markets without adequate marketing investments can prove difficult due to the strong presence of cheaper local brands and heavy investments of other leading brands , such as the giant Koreans. Utilization of local staff Employing experienced local management and staff is seen as a major advantage, considering the importance of existing relationships/ network of contacts and requirement for having an understanding of the local customs and behaviors, unique ways of doing business and negotiation tactics. Engage in direct distribution Leading vendors are increasingly distributing directly to end-users, particularly to the modern retailers, corporate and government entities, while using wholesalers/official distributors for reaching the vast outlets in the traditional channels. Complex and indirect distribution models lead to inefficient supply chain management and additional costs. Within local markets vendors are able to bypass local distributors and reduce costs only when they have a strong local team with sophisticated networks across all channel types. It is important to note that sales into B2B/ tendering are sometimes required to take place through official distributors. Build strong local partnerships Strategic partnerships with local entities can help in establishing a quick foothold by leveraging existing capabilities, relationships and contacts. Establish local ofces Develop Show rooms Localization Strategy
Invest Heavily in marketing Build up of Strong local partnerships Setup local assembly plants Engage in a direct distribution Figure 5.1 - Key strategic initiatives Figure 5.1 identifies some of the key strategic initiatives that are needed in order to effectively penetrate the local markets. Source: Deloitte research and analysis Leading vendors are increasingly using a direct approach for distribution to end-users, particularly to the modern channels, corporations and government entities Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 17 18 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa Dedicated Africa operations Localization and customization of products have been a key element towards a successful African expansion strategy. Vendors have achieved this through acquiring knowledge and understanding of local markets, establishment of research and manufacturing/assembly facilities, implementation of local marketing initiatives and development of dedicated Africa operations teams. Future trends indicate that regional strategy and operations for leading vendors will increasingly be led by African-based teams and dedicated stand-alone organizations. If vendors want to succeed in Africa, they will need to treat it as an independent market through a dedicated business unit, with an on the ground presence, supported by a regional management team operating from a local headquarter. Poor credit and financing facilities limit the purchasing power of both distributors and consumers Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 19 Opportunities Cost and time to market Local production reduces logistics costs and associated custom duties and allows the vendors to realize faster delivery times and faster reactions to changes in consumer deman d patterns. Brand perception By manufacturing locally vendors are able to sell Made in Africa products and capitalize on employing local workforce to achieve better brand perception and corporate social responsibility. Product customization Through local production, vendors can focus on producing a customized range of entry level products (complimented by CBU imports). Entry level and basic feature models generally make up the biggest percentage of products in demand. Challenges Business environment Localization can be challenging in some regions due to poor infrastructure, continuous power shortages, security issues (transportation of goods), corruption and shortage of skilled workers. The lack of local talent and the high turnover rate make it difficult for vendors to build local dedicated teams. Modern channels Certain key markets in Africa such as Algeria and Nigeria still have relatively underdeveloped modern channels. This poses a key challenge due to the complex network of traditional dealers and the number of dealers needed to find economies of scale. Credit facilities Poor credit and financing facilities limit the purchasing power of both distributors and consumers. Competition with local brands The low income segment, which is still the largest consumer segment in Africa, remains quite loyal to local brands.
Summary of opportunities and challenges The following is a summary of the identified opportunities and challenges faced by consumer electronics vendors in expanding and growing their business through adopting a localized strategy: 20 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa The South African retail market offers great potential and has an estimated size of approximately $68bn (2010). However, succeeding in the market requires insights into its dynamics as well as the ability to overcome a number of unique barriers. At the same time, several key trends are currently shaping the South African retail market and increasing its complexity: Growing retail market Despite the current retail slowdown, South Africas retail sales are expected to grow by 49% by 2014 due mainly to economic growth, the emergence of a strong middle class, decreasing unemployment and underserviced rural areas. One of the contributors to the retail growth will be sale of consumer electronics (+43% estimates over 2010-2014) Emerging middle class South Africa is undergoing a remarkable transformation with the expansion of the middle class; the number of upper-income households is growing at more than 20% annually. However there is still a large portion of inequality among South African consumers where 64% of the total consumption is driven by only 13% of the population. A developed retail market dominated by local players South Africa has a developed retail market dominated by domestic firms (Massmart, JD Group, Pick n Pay, etc.). None of the major international retail chains such as Carrefour and Tesco has yet entered the market; however the recent entry of Wal-Mart acquiring Massmart and the expected entry of additional global retailers into the South African market will reinforce the competition and reshape the retail landscape. The Africanization of South African retailers Most of the leading South African retailers (GAME, Makro, JD group etc.) are expanding rapidly into the Sub Saharan region including into new markets such as Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (refer to diagram below) Emerging global brands Global companies are increasingly using South Africa, which provides a regional strategic export and manufacturing platform as a window into Africa. According to the American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa, nearly 50% of the chamber's members are Fortune 500 companies, and over 90% operate beyond South Africa's borders into southern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and across the continent. Figure 5.2 below shows the Africanization of the South African retailers, and their aggressive expansion into Sub-Saharan Africa. For example, Pick n Pay has recently announced its intention to increase its stake in the Zimbabwe operation TM Supermarkets in a deal worth about US13 million. Pick n Pay's strategy into Africa has mainly been through partnering with local retailers and/or through franchising. Meanwhile, Game has undergone a fast track expansion program into Africa over the last five years and has doubled the number of its stores, with new outlets expected in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo. South Africa case study Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 21 Kenya Tanzania Nigeria South Africa Namibia Zambia Mozambique Botzwana N. of stores outside South Africa 12 2 2 37 2 0 0 Source: Deloitte research and analysis Figure 5.2 - The presence of South Africa retailers in Africa 22 | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa Opportunities GDP & Unemployment The GDP per capita is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.2% (estimates over 2010-2015); the unemployment rate is expected to decrease at a CAGR of -6.1% (estimates over 2010-2015) thanks partially to the long term benefits from the World Cup. Consumption Household expenses are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 5.1% (estimates over 2010-2015) reinforced by an expected improvement in credit facilities. Sales of consumer electronics are expected to increase by 45% over this period. Using South Africa as a window into Africa There is a high degree of overseas interest in using South Africa as a platform for growth into Africa. A strong contributing factor to this is the high number of favorable trade agreements such as: SADC, AGOA, GSPS, TDEA, SACU and IBSA covering exports into the Sub-Saharan market. Untapped rural areas There are significant opportunities to open shopping malls in rural areas and townships. The expected extension of electrical power in townships will lead to a rise in consumption of consumer electronics goods. High degree of ICT maturity South Africa has a relatively modern and developed technology and communication sector. The penetration rates for mobile, telephones and PCs are higher than the MENA average. Challenges Transportation Costs relating to transportation of goods are high due to: large distances between key domestic markets and the high degree of required security due to the risk of road hijacking. Regulations Selling direct to retail requires compliance with a number of business regulations and consumer laws, e.g. Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE), National Industrial Participation Programme (NIPP), Consumer Protection Act (CPA). Compliance with these is both a difficult and costly exercise. Labour unions South African unions are known for their propensity to go on strike, which can be lengthy and sometimes violent. COSATU (Congress of South African Trade Unions) and other local labor federations are very powerful in the country. Security and crime A key conclusion in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) competitiveness report is that crime is the most problematic factor for doing business in SA (including theft of goods). Market saturation The retail market might quickly be saturated with the increasing number of shopping centres established in the larger cities. Opportunities and challenges Some of the main opportunities and challenges of doing business in South Africa for consumer electronics vendors are outlined below: Maximizing Growth Opportunities in Africa | Leading Consumer Electronics Business Organizations | 23 Firas Eid Partner | Consulting Tel: +971 (4) 369 8999 feid@deloitte.com Parham Gohari Senior Manager | Strategy Consulting Tel: +971 (4)369 8999 pgohari@deloitte.com Andreas Frandevi Manager | Strategy Consulting Tel: +971 (2) 676 0025 afrandevi@deloitte.com Virginie Clemancon Manager | Strategy Consulting Tel: +971 (4)369 8999 vclemancon@deloitte.com Noura M. Al Hashimi Strategy Consulting Tel: +961 (1) 366 844 nhashimi@deloitte.com Faris W. Khatib Strategy Consulting Tel: +971 (0) 4 369 8999 fkhatib@deloitte.com Strategy consulting and consumer business contacts Deloitte can support your organization to understand and anticipate changing consumer needs, respond rapidly with relevant products and solutions, and explore emerging opportunities. The following includes a list of our customized offerings: Corporate and competitive strategy Customer and market strategy Growth strategy and M&A Market entry strategy services Supply chain and channel management Product development and pricing strategy Commercial due diligence services Country risk assessment Balanced scorecard Strategy implementation support About Deloitte: Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. 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