meatasthey growrich andthe sudden,vo-

The new face of hunger raciousappetitesof westernbiofuelspro-

grammes,which convertcerealsinto fuel.
Thisyeartheshareof themaize(corn)crop
going into ethanol in America has risen
and the EuropeanUnion is implementing
its own biofuels targets.To make matters
worse,morefebrilebehaviourseemsto be
Global food shortages have taken everyone by su4rrise. What is to be done? influencing markets: export quotas by
large grain producers,rumours of panic-
CAMAI(E BAKARY sells rice from sharpestrisesin food pricesever.But this buying by grain importers, money &om
rJwooden basinsat Abobotemarket in year the speedof changehas accelerated. hedgefunds looking for new markets.
the northern suburbsof Abidjan in C6te Since January, rice prices have soared Suchshifts have not been matchedbv
d'Ivoire. He points to a bowl of broken r4r%;thepriceof onevarietyof wheatshot comparablechangeson the farm. This is
Thai rice which, at 4oo cra francs up z5%in a day. Some4okm outsideAbi- partly becausethey cannotbe: farmersal-
(roughly$r) per kilogram,is the most pop- djan, Mariam Kone,who growssweetpo- ways takea while to respond.It is alsobe-
ular variety. On a good day he usedto sell tatoes,okraandmaizebutfeedsherfamily causegovernmentshave softenedthe im-
r5o kilos.Now he is lucky to sell half that. on imported rice,laments:"Riceis very ex- pact of price rises on domestic markets,
"Peopleaskthe priceand go awaywithout pensive,but we don't know why." muffling the signalsthat would otherwise
buying anything," he complains.In early Thepricesmainly reflectchangesin de- have encouragedfarmers to grow more
April they went awayand rioted:two days mand-not problems of supply, such as food. Of 58 countrieswhose reactionsare
of violencepersuadedthe governmentto harvest failure, The changesinclude the trackedby the World Bank, 48 have im-
postponeplannedelections. gentle upward pressurefrom people in posedprice controls,consumersubsidies,
"World agriculturehas entereda new, China and India eating more grain and exportrestrictionsor lower tariffs.
unsustainableand politically risky per- But the food scareof zoo8, severeas it
iod," saysJoachimvon Braun,the head of is, is only a symptom of a broader pro-
the InternationalFoodPolicyResearchIn- f; snooung up blem. The surgein food priceshas ended
stitute(rrpnr) in Washington,nc.Ib prove Grainprices,$ terms.ianuaryand2007-100 3o yearsinwhich food was cheap,farming
it, food riots have eruptedin countriesall was subsidisedin rich countriesand inter-
along the equator. In Haiti, protesters 300 national food markets were wildlv dis-
chanting"rrlVe're hungry" forcedthe prime torted. Eventually,no doubt, farmeri will
minister to resign;z4 peoplewere killed in respondto higher pricesby growing more
riots in Cameroon;Egypt'spresident or- and a new equilibrium will be established.
deredthe army to start baking bread;the If all goes well, food will be affordable
Philippinesmade hoarding rice punisha- againwithoutthe subsidies,dumping and
ble bylife imprisonment.'Tt'san explosive distortionsof the earlierperiod. But at the
situationand threatenspolitical stability," moment, agriculturehas been caught in
worries Jean-LouisBillon, president of
C6ted'Ivoire'schamberof commerce.
,-T"-)TF*:
J t M A ltl
,,
o t o t o trlolo
limbo. The era of cheapfood is over.The
transitionto a new equilibrium is proving
Lastyearwheat pricesrose77Yo arld.rice ,toot, costlier,more prolonged and much more
16%(seechart).Thesewere some of the Sources:Chiego Boardol Trade;Jackons
painful than anyonehad expected. F'
 33
! "We are the canary in the mine," says of the world's water and vegetation,cove(,
Josette Sheeran,the head of the uN's so raising their productivity on existing
World Food Programme,the largest dis- land would be environmentallvfriendlier
tributor of food aid.Usually,a food crisisis than cutting down the rainforest.And it
clearand localised.Theharvestfails,often shouldbe efficient:in termsof returnson
becauseof war or strife.and the burdenin investment, it would be easier to boost
the affected region falls heavily on the grainyieldsin Africafrom two tonnesper
poorest.This crisisis different.It is occur- hectareto four than it would be to raise
ring in many countries simultaneously, yields in Europefrom eight tonnesto ten.
the first time that has happenedsincethe The opportunitiesare greaterand the law
early r97os.And it is affectingpeople not of diminishingreturnshasnot setin.
usually hit by famines. "For the middle Unfortunately, no smallholder bo-
classes,"saysMs Sheeran,"it means cut- nanzais yet happening.In partsof eastAf-
tingoutmedicalcare.Forthose on$za day, rica, farmers are cutting back on the area
it means cutting out meat and taking the planted, mostly becausethey cannot af-
children out of school.For those on $r a ford fertilisers (driven by oil, fertiliser
day,it meanscuttingout meat and vegeta- prices have soared,too). This reaction is
blesand eatingonly cereals.And for those sponse would come from the world's not universal.India is forecastinga record
on 50 centsa day,it meanstotal disaster." +som smallholders in developing coun- cerealharvest; South A&ican planting is
Thepoorestaresellingtheir animals,tools, tries, people who farm just a few acres. up 8%this year.Still, some anecdotalevi-
the tin roof over their heads-making re- Therearethreereasonswhy this would be dence,plus the generalincreasein food
covery,when it comes,much harder. desirable.First, it would reducepovertyl prices,suggeststhat smallholders,are not
Because theproblemis notyetreflected three-quartersof thosemaking do on $r a respondingenough."In a perfectworld,"
in national statistics.its scale is hard to day live in the countrysideand dependon saysa recentrFpRIreport,"the responseto
judge. The effecton the poor will depend the health of smallholderfarming.Next,it higher pricesis higher output. In the real
on whether they arenet buyersof food or might help the environment:thosesmall- world,however,thisisn't alwaysthe case."
net sellers(seebox); for some net buyers, holders managea disproportionateshare Farming in emerging markets is riddled rp
the pricerisesmaybe enoughto tum therri
into sellers.But by almost any measure,
the human sufferingis likely to be vast.In
EISalvadorthe poor areeatingonly half as
much food as they were a year ago.Af-
ghansarenow spendinghalf their income
on food,up from a tenth in zoo6.
On a conservativeestimate,food-price
rises may reducethe spendingpower of
the urban poor and country people who
buy their own food by zoYo(in some re-
gions, prices are rising by far more).Just
over r billion people live on $r a day, the
benchmarkof absolutepoverty;r.5billion
live on $rtb $z a day.BobZoellick,the pres-
ident of the World Bank,reckonsthat food
inflation could push at leastroom people
into poverty, wiping out all the gainsthe
poorestbillion havemade during almosta
decadeof economicgrowth.

Smalt is fairly beautiful

In the short run, humanitarian aid, social-
protectionprogrammesand tradepolicies
will determinehow well the world copes
with these problems.But in the medium
term the questionis different where does
the world getmore food from?If the extra
suppliescome mainly from largefarmers
in America,Europeand other big produc-
ers,then the new equilibrium may end up
looking much like the old one,with world
food dependingon a smallnumber of sup-
pliersand-possibly-trade distortionsand
food dumping.Sofar,farmersinrich coun-
tries have indeed responded.America's
winter wheat plantingsareup 4%and the
spring-sownareais likely to risemore.The
Food and Agriculture Organisationfore-
caststhat the wheat harvest in the Euro-
peanUnion will riser3%.
Ideally, a big part of the supply re-
F with market failures and does not reactto have exacerbatedthe effects of under
t.z hectaresto o.8 in the r99os. By and
pricesignalsasotherbusinessesdo. investment.Farmingis just one part of a large,the smaller the farm, the greaierthe
This is true to a certain extent of farm- food chain that stretchesfrom fertiliser burden of the costof doing businesswith
ing in general.If you own a toy factory,or and seedcompaniesat one end to super- big retailers.Smaller smallholders are also
an oilfield and the priceof toysor oil rises, marketsat the other.In thepast,the end of at a disadvantagein getting loans, new
you run the factory night and day,or turn the chain nearest consumerswas less im- seeds and other innovations on which
the tapsfull on. But it alwaystakesa season portant. Food policy meant improving higheryields depend.
to grow more food, which is why farm links betweenfarmersand suppliers.The Such bottlenecks and market failures
prices everywhere tend to be "sticky": a GreenRevolutionof the 196os,for exam- makeit harderfor smallholdersto respond
ro% increasein prices leads to a 1% in- ple, provided new seedsand subsidised to higherprices,evenwithout the muitiple
creasein output.But the food crisisof zooS fertilisers.Malawi is doing something sim- distortions that governments also intro-
suggestsfarm prices in developingcoun- ilar now But over the past decade,the duceinto world food markets.Ihev mean
triesmay be stickierthanthat. other end of the chain hascometo matter the transitionto a new equilibrium"will be
The quickestway to increaseyour crop more. The main reason why Kenyan and prolonged and painful. But they do not
is to plant more. But in the short run there Ethiopian farmers planted less this year mean it will not happen.LennartBige,the
is only a limited amount of fallow land was not just that fertilisers were expen- headof the InternationalFundfor Alricul-
easily available.(The substantialunused sive,but that farmerscouldnot getcreditto tural Development,a uN agenryin Rome,
acreagein Brazil and Russiawill take a de- financepurchases.Supermarketsare also arguesthat if farmerscan keepthe higher
cadeor so to get readyJ For some crops- more important to farmersthan they used prices, they will overcome the problbms
notably rice in East Asia-the amount of to be, accountingfor half or more of food that beset them. As he points out, India
good, productive land is actually falling, sales,evenin many developingcountries. feeds rz7. of the world's people on less
buried under the concreteof expanding than 5%of the world's water and 3%of its
cities.In other words, food increasesnow Successinpatches farmland-and, along with China, is see-
needto comemainly from higheryields. In theory,the growing importanceof trad- ingits cerealcroprisethis year.Similarsuc-
Yields cannot be switdred on and off ers and supermarketsought to make farm- cessstoriesarecroppingup, in patches.
like a tap; Spreadingextrafertiliser or buy- ers more responsiveto changesin prices Despite EastAfrica's problems, Ethio-
ing new machinery helps. But higher and consumertastes.In some places,that pia_thisweek openedits own commodity
yields also need betterirrigation and fan- is the case.But supermarketsneed uni- exchange,a rare thing on the continent, in
cier seeds.Thetime lagbetweendreaming form quality, minimum large quantities an attempt to improve the markets that
up a new seed and growing it commer- and high standardsof hygiene,which the connectfarmersand traders.Thespreadof
ciallyin the fieldis ten to 15years,saysBob averagesmallholderin a poor countryis ill mobile phones also relays market in-
Zeiglerof the International RiceResearch equippedtoprovide.Sotradersand super- formation more widely.In landlockedMa-
Institute(rRRr)in the Philippines.Evenif a markets may benefit commercial farmers lawi, it costsalmostasmuch to ship maize
farmer wanted to plant something more morethan smallholders. to and ftom world marketsas it does to
productivethis year, and could afford to, To make mattersworse,smallholdings grow it locally,so Malawian farmershave
he could not-unless researchwork had are fragmenting in many countries. Bi- found it hard to export their surplus even
beengoingon for years. causeof population growth andthe lossof with priceshigh. But partly becauseof the
It has not, Most agriculturalresearchin farmland, the averagefarm size in China political disaster of Zimbabwe, regional
developingcountriesis financed by gov- and Bangladeshhas fallen from about r.5 marketsare now springingup out of no-
ernments. In the 198os, governments hectaresin the 197osto barelyo.5hectares where in southern Aftica-and Malawi's
started to reduce green-revolutionary now; in Ethiopia and Malawi, it fel from farmersaresellingthere.
spending,either out of complacency(be- Moreover, technological improve-
lieving the problem of food had been ments are still pushing through the ne-
licked), or becausethey preferred to in. glectedsoil. Mr Zeiglerreckonsrnnr has
volve the private sector.But many of the enough tinkerings in the pipeline to in-
private firms brought in to replacestatere- creaseyields by one or two tonnesa hect-
searchersturned out to be rent-seeking are.And if Europeancountriesrelax their
monopolists.And in the r98os and r99os hostility to genetically modified organ-
huge farm surpluses ftom the rich world isms,cropscientistscould do things*such
were being dumped on markets,depress- as redesigningphotosynihesisin plants*
ing prices and returns on investment. which couldboostyields5o%ormore.
Spending on farming as a share of total Between November zoo7 and Febru-
public spendingin developing countries ary 2oo8,rice exportsfrom Thailand (the
fell byhalf between1980and zoo4. world's biggestexporter) were running at
This declinehas had a slow, inevitable 1m tonnes a month*an unprecedented
impact.Creatinga new seedis a bit like de- bonanza.But for even for producersand
signinga flu vaccine:you needto keepup- traders, the blessing was mixed. Some
dating it, or pestsand diseasewilt nigaie farmers sold their crop before prices
its effectiveness. When the rice variety rn8 soared.Millers tried to keip suppliesback,
wasintroducedin 1956,it producedalmost waiting for higher prices.The government
ten tonnesperhectare;now it yields barely capped exports below last year's levels.
seven.In developing countries between The secretary-general of the Thai rice ex-
the r96osand r98os,yields of the main ce- porters' association told rnnr that .We
real cropsincreasedby 3-6"/.a year. Now don't know where the eooTharvestis.',Vi-
annual growth is down to r-z%,below the chai Sriprasert,a big $(porter, describes
increasein demand(seecharton previous the Thai rice market using languagethat,
page)."We'repaying the price for r5 years elsewhere,is literally true."Thisis a crucial
of neglect,"saysMr Zeigler. time," he says."It will tell the story of who
Alterationsin the structureof farming A burdento afford will survive and who will not survive.',s