1

Demographic Perspectives
Theory behind the empirical practice
Much more data analysis than theory
Puts data together with why? and wherefore?
Relationships explained
Two levels of theorytechnical, mathematical and
biomedical theories that predict change in the biological
parts of demography (fertility, mortality and distribution)
Soft theory that relates technical to social world
What does theory ask?
What are the causes of population growth?
What are the consequences of population Growth?
Epistemology
Doctrine versus theory
Doctrines are ideas based on observation that have
come from fashioning the answer from
ideological knowledge and certainty
Theories must fit data to reality of the world
Theory organizes and categorizes, doctrine sets
rules from socio-political stance
2
Doctrines
Pro-natalist and anti-natalist
GenesisPro-natalist
Plato--Quality more important than quantity
CiceroNeed more population
KhaldunIncreases in population increase
specialization and complexity in society
Doctrines
Mercantilistsincreased population increases
social and political power
PhysiocratsWealth is land, not people; people
stress wealth and power
Christians anti-natalists?
Condemned abortion, infanticide polygamy and
divorce
Doctrines
Mercantilists larger always better than smaller
Technology can overcome the problems of the
food supply and joblessness
These doctrines have the by-product of poverty
Physiocrats valued substance over quantity (Plato)
Laissez-faire economics (Adam Smith)
3
Prelude to Malthus
Democratic revolution
Power of the individual
Social responsibilityCondorcet
Promote the general welfare vs. self-interest and
utilitarian ideals
Prosperity would postpone the poverty cycle (Any
one see this lately?
Malthus
Thomas Robert Malthus
Principles of Population1798
Principle has two postulates
a] Food is necessary to existence
b] Sexual passion is always present
The power of the sexual energy is always greater
than our ability to produce food to feed the
consequences of that sexuality
Malthus
Population growth essentially condemned a part of
society to poverty
People were impelled to population growthnot
wholly rational about procreation
Checks on population growth
Ultimate check was the maximum food supply
4
Malthus
Negative check was starvation and death
Positive checksbiological limits to reproduction
Causes of mortality and starvation related failure to
reproduce
Preventive checkslimits to births
Moral restraintideological and rational self-
control mechanisms
Malthus
Initially population would lag behind food supply
increases because technology would improve to
meet and best demand
At some point improved food production would be
beaten by rapid increases in population and the
food supply would not be sufficient, thus causing
widespread famine and death
Is this still true today?
Malthus
The urge to reproduce precedes the demand for
labor, meaning poverty for many
Blamed poverty on the lack of self-control of the
poor
Avoiding the consequences would mean more
controls of population pressurerational decision-
making and knowledge of control of reproduction
plus improving the lot of the poor
5
Critique of Malthus
Food supply can keep up with demand given
sufficient technology and land mass
Food supply can grow exponentially
Poverty is not inevitable
Moral restraint is not the only restraint to
population growthbiological means exist
Neo-Malthusians
Favor contraception over moral restraint
Knowledge of birth control key to their strategy
Prudential restraint (delay in marriage)
Spacing of babies
Birth control methods
Breast feeding for prolonged periods
Neo-Malthusians
Paul EhrlichPopulation Bomb
Garrett Hardintragedy of the commons, personal
goals should not outrank social goals
Two solutionsbirth control or increased death
rate
Political debate rages on today with religious and
social rights overtones
6
Karl Marx
Had little to say about population issues
Saw Malthus ideas as classist and against the political
interests of the proletariat
Each society produces its own rules of population growth
which determine the consequences of that growth
For capitalism the consequences were poverty and classist
society; for socialism, population increases were absorbed
without consequences
Marx
Technology would always stay ahead of the need
for food and thus population was free to increase
The real curb of population was the means to
employment and meeting of economic needs
Poverty was only the results of a capitalist society
Marx
Ruling class had a desire for a reserve army of
unemployed people to keep wages down and
profits high
Poor alienated from means of production such that
reforms must make these means available to the
socialist society and this would act as a natural
control on population?
7
Critique of Marx
Political motivation, not true science
Anti-capitalist
Marrying economic growth to population growth
not linear
High death rates not affected by economics as
expected
China and the one child rule
Preludes to modern theory
John Stuart Mill
Standard of living determinative of population
pressure
Population restrained by fear of poverty
All peoples economically comfortable=stable
population
Preludes
Millwomen do not want as many children as
menwomens rights paramount to control of
population
DumontSocial capillarity=the desire to rise in
the social strata, to increase wealth and social
position
Sacrifice to rise means fewer childrenpositive
goals instead of fear of slippage
8
Preludes
Durkheim
Division of labor forced by increased density of
social enclaves
Specialization occurs
Density increases social stress and decreases urge
to reproduce
Modern Theories
Demographic Transition
Merely descriptive of birth, death patterns
Later added a causal element
Thompson, 1929
Transition from high rates of natural increase to
low rates
Demographic Transition
Notestein
Incipient decline, transitional growth and high
growth types
Kinsley Davis, father of demography
population explosion in uncontrolled growth
Development and modernization initiated the
transition
9
Formal Theory
Social pressures of modernization, technology and
development as well as proper public health make
longevity increase and life chances improve
This causes a decrease in mortality
If mortality is less there is less need to have large
numbers of children to make sure that sufficient numbers
survive to contribute to economic well-being of the family
and support the parents
Formal Theory
Absent the pressure to procreate, the birth rate and
TFR fall
The mortality rates fall prior to the fall in birth
rates, causing a rapid rise in total population
End result is low, stable birth and death rates
Stability at low levels eventually causes population
to level out (Graph pg. 101)
Modern Theory
Development is the best contraceptive
Does not include education as a component,
especially birth control education
Critique questions the homeostatic nature of the
end result, crises happen to destabilize the
systemexample:baby boom
The theory is ethnocentricdevelopment to a
capitalist modern society is needed to make it work
10
Critique
Must include high levels of public health and
medical care to maintain homeostais and reach
equilibrium
Reformulation
Economic development is a sufficient but not
necessary cause of fertility decline
Fertility declines mostly because of secularization
of the process of decision and that the decision can
be volitional
Education stimulates the secularization
Rational choice theory, wealth flow directionality
Wallerstein
industrialization leads to occupational
specialization, rising education levels, rising
income,and eventually...changes in gender
roles...sexual norms; declining fertility rates;
broader political participation; and less easily led
public [societies]
No universal law of population and each culture
has its own variant of the process
11
Set of Transitions
Epidemiological transitionshift from deaths at
young ages and acute disease to death at older ages
from chronic disease
Fertility transitionthe traditional theory
migration transition rural overpopulation makes
young move to urban places of more economic
opportunityis there a reverse in our future?
Transitions
Urban transition movement to urban areas causes
a distinct pattern of rural and urban age
distribution patterns
Family and household transition changes in
family structure and function due to all of the
above factors
Demographic Change and Response
Interactivity of cause and effect in population
transitions and change
Micro-theory that states that changes in familial
structure change personal and individual goals that
have social and institutional consequences
example: fertility and womens rights in Muslim
countries
12
Easterlin Hypothesis
Relates to size of cohorts (sub-segments based on
age, social class, interests,etc.) or relative income
hypothesis: The standard of living you experience
in adolescence is the base from which you measure
your life chances as an adult
What factors are important? Family size, wealth,
social status, education
Economic and population change are closely allied
Easterlin
Differentials in cohort size and composition cause
the birth rate to move in predictable directions
Feedback loop
Example:Baby boom
Consequences of Population Growth
Political change
Ideological entrenchment
Economic pressure and poverty
Development
Food Security
Conflict resolution
Health and cultural integrity/maintenance
13
Main Points
Demographic perspective
Doctrine versus theories
Malthus and food/population connection
Marx and classist perspective
Millstandard of living, fear as motivator
Dumontsocial capillarity, promise as motivator
Main Points
Durkheimsocial structure as a consequence of
population growth
Demographic transition
Secularization and cultural diffusion
Technology and Modernization, development
Cohort size may partially determine future change