POST WITHDRAWAL SCENARIO IN AFGHANISTAN AND ITS IMPACT
ON PAKISTAN'S SECURITY POLICY SEMINAR PAPER
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School of Politics and International Relations Quaid-e-AzamUniversity,Islamabad November, 2013 2
TABLE OF CONTENT Part-1 Introduction..3 Part-2 History of Afghanistan4 i. British Invasion4 ii. Russian Invasion..5 iii. U.S Invasion..6 Part-3 Post 9/11 Scenario in Afghanistan.7 i. Factors leading to U.S invasion of Afghanistan8 ii. What are Al-Qaeda and Taliban.9 iii. U.N Resolutions Regarding Afghanistan..9 Part-4Impact of Afghanistan on Pakistan's Security Policy..10 i. What is security policy ii. Pakistan's Security policy iii. Financial aid to Pakistan Part-5 Regional Implications of U.S Withdrawal from Afghanistan12 Part-6 Conclusion.14 Bibliography.16
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PART-1 INTRODUCTION After its invasion on the Afghan land, U.S has announced withdrawing its forces by the end of the year 2014. After years of forced reforms and development programs that have not led o much gain, American officials have finally decided a withdrawal from Afghanistan, a land rightly known as the Graveyard of Empires. This withdrawal is not as simple as it may sound, it can be traumatic on the economy of Afghanistan on one hand and may impede larger insecurity risks to the troops that stay back in Afghanistan for an interim time. The aftermath of 9/11attacks on the U.S changed the politics not only within America but the rest of the world face the same political changes in the coming years. The American decision to strike the hideouts of the alleged A-Qaida and Taliban in Afghanistan, brought Pakistan on a no-go rad with the only option in hand being becoming American allies in their war against terror. Facing the consequences in terms of increased pressure from within the country and its neighbors on adopting a policy that was not Pakistan's own and increased insecurity in the country and at the Western and Eastern borders are the consequences Pakistan had to face, to name a few. The following questions have been addressed in this paper: 1. What is the effect of withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, post 2014 2. What will be the role of regional powers like Iran and India and the way forward for Pakistan to balance the influence? 3. How should the security policy of Pakistan be devised for the future?
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PART-2 HISTORY OF AFGHANISTAN The history of urbanization in Afghanistan can be dated back to 330 B.C upon the arrival of Alexander the Great and his Macedonian army. Many powerful kingdoms have ruled Afghanistan since then including Greco-Bactrians, Mauryas, Kushans, Kabul Shahi, Saffarids, Samanids, Ghaznavids, Ghurids, Timurids, Mughals, Hotakis, Durranis and others. These Arab invasions infused Arab culture to the soils of Afghanistan and it emerged as a culturally diverse and rich country producing the likes of Avicenna, Al-Biruni and Rumi. British Invasion of Afghanistan Afghanistan has been invaded twice by the British Empire, 1838-42 and 1878-81, the aim being to deflect Russian invasion and to prevent it from gaining a strong standing in this strategically significant region. BRITSH INVASION OF 1842 The people of Afghanistan retaliated to these occupations but the governments were unable to take the control back and soon surrendered. The British Empire occupied Ghazni, Jalalabad and Kabul without much effort. to cede the British hegemony, the British Empire appointed a puppet ruler Shah Shuja. In November, 1842 civilians rose against the oppression and attacked the British garrison killing thousands of soldiers, the harsh winters made it even difficult for the British to counterforce the civilian surge. Although the British captured and killed many civilians but the retaliation was even greater. The British had to finally withdraw from Afghanistan and go back to their garrisons in India 1 BRITISH INVASION OF 1878 In the start of 1879, the British again tried invading Afghanistan and did so easily as they faced minimal resistance from the locals, the provinces of Qandahar and Jalalabad soon fell to the British Empire. The residents of Afghanistan and especially these provinces suffered the effects of the oppressive British rule and rose against them. The leaders of the provinces of Herat and Qandahar retaliated with their armies against the British troops. They were not as successful against the British as were their guerillas at the grass root level. So, both the insurgences by Britain in Afghanistan had to face the same consequences. 2
1. Ritscher, Adam, A Brief history of Afghanistan. http://www.afghangovernment.com/briefhistory.htm 2. Bosin, Yury. Afghanistan, resistance to 19th century British invasion, 2009.
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Russian Invasion of Afghanistan: On December 24, 1979, four motorized tank and rifle divisions, made up mostly of Uzbek, Tajik, and Turkmen soldiers, rolled down the Salang Highway into Kabul, Afghanistan. On December 27, Hafizullah Amin's three-month-old government was overthrown. Amin was executed, and Babrak Karmal was installed as president. Within a week, Soviet military strength in Afghanistan reached 100,000 soldiers, nearly balancing the 150,000 in the mujahedeen (freedom fighters) opposition. 1 Afghanistan had been the first third world country to have received aid from Soviet Union, a communist country, dating back these ties to 1950s.the relations of Soviets were of a political nature under the rule of king Zahir Shah. During the interim period, before the arrival of Soviet military in Afghanistan, the political leadership maintained friendly ties with the Soviets, the Russian leaders also used to visit Afghanistan to enhance trade ties and keep a note of the strategic turn overs that might arise. It was not until 1977, that the government under Hafuizulah Amin's leadership implemented laws that ignited fury in the fundamentalist groups. These reforms were suggested by Soviet Union and included banning of forced marriages, banning of polygamy and dowry. Riots broke out throughout the country and when it became impossible for the government to control these forces, Soviet Union invaded the Afghan soil. Soviet Union increased and spread its insurgence to the provinces of Kabul, Qandahar and Herat, bombarding villages and houses, deliberately destroying wheat an crop fields. The people had to escape their homes and seek refuge in Iran and Pakistan. Afghanistan had to pay a high price to the Soviet generosity that it had shown in 1950s and 1960s, thereby getting access to the oil and gas resources of the country, and that too at low
1. Afghanistan Invaded by Soviets, December 27, 1979 . http://www.aasd.k12.wi.us/staff/hermansenjoel/sawar.pdf 2. Ibid
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Not only did Afghanistan and its people suffered but Soviet Union paid the price in terms of threatened diplomatic relations with the Western world. The United Nations intervened the Soviet invasion and the later had to announce the withdrawal of its forces in April 1988. The Soviet Union left Afghanistan in rambles of destructed houses and devastated internal structure. The political scenario within the state was also much destabilized and it led to the uprising of fundamentalist and extremist forces within the country. Invasion of Afghanistan by U.S.A: In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in order to end the ability of the Taliban regime to provide safe haven to al Qaeda and to put a stop to al Qaedas use of the territory of Afghanistan as a base of operations for terrorist activities. In that first phase, a primarily military effort, U.S. and other coalition forces, working closely with Afghan opposition forces, quickly removed the Taliban regime. 1 The outcomes of the war in Afghanistan have not been clearly decisive and not much has been gained from it other than developing a constitution and formation of parliamentary bodies. The U.S has faced the same threats within Afghanistan as had been faced by past invaders, the biggest being Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants, then are the smaller groups involved in drug trafficking and smuggling. Then there are tribes and clans that are involved in disturbances at the smaller, local level. America has faced grave dangers to its security while its stay in Afghanistan and has faced a downfall in its economy by allocating a big sum of money to the on-going war in Afghanistan. The American government has now announced a withdrawal of forced from Afghanistan by transferring the powers to a promising stakeholder. This withdrawal will have its consequences in the shorter and the longer term on Afghanistan and Paksitan as well.
1. War in Afghanistan (2001-present)
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PART-3 POST 9/11 SCENARIO IN AFGHANISTAN Factors leading to Afghan Invasion by U.S In the mid-1990s, the US government had supported the Taliban with the hope that its military strength would enable it to unify the country and provide a stable government, which could protect the pipeline. By the late 1990s, however, the Clinton administration had given up on the Taliban. When the Bush administration came to power, it decided to give the Taliban one last chance. During a four-day meeting in Berlin in July 2001, representatives of the Bush administration insisted that the Taliban must create a government of national unity by sharing power with factions friendly to the United States. The US representatives reportedly said: Either you accept our offer of a carpet of gold, or we bury you under a carpet of bombs. 1 In September, 2001 nine armed men who claimed to be belonging to Al-Qaeda hijacked four U.S planes and attacked twin towers in Washington and Pentagon. Almost 3000 civilians belonging to every sex,caste and race were brought under the attack. The U.S alleged Taliban in Afghanistan to have given refuge to Osama bin Laden and if he was not handed over to them, they would invade Afghanistan. The Taliban asked for a proof and Laden denied responsibility of the attacks. The U.S brought Afghanistan into attack and many civilians and settlements suffered the attacks.
1. Quoted in Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasqui, Forbidden Truth: U.S.-Taliban Secret Oil Diplomacy and the Failed Hunt for Bin Laden (New York: Thunders Mouth Press/Nation Books, 2002),
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What are Al-Qaeda and Taliban
Al-Qaeda and Taliban are two names that are not new to many people and even children all over the world. It is these two groups or clans that have made drastic changes in world politics especially in south Asia. The origin of al qaeda can be traced to the writings of Sayyid Qutb, an Islamic thinker. The basic ideology of al qaeda is to establish an Islamic state, with focus on Sharia. They want to get rid of socialism and nationalism, which they consider as non-Muslim concepts. The Talibans extremist ideology is only an innovative form of Islam in combination with Pashtun tribal codes with Deobandi interpretations.While the Taliban are restricted to a particular region, the al-Qaeda has no boundaries.
U.N resolution on U.S Invasion of Afghanistan The military campaign in Afghanistan was not specifically mandated by the UN - there was no specific Security Council Resolution authorizing the invasion - but was widely (although not universally) perceived to be a legitimate form of self-defense under the UN Charter. Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the 'threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state'. The accepted exceptions to this are where a competent organ of the UN (almost always the Security Council) has authorized it, or where it is in self- defence under article 51 of the Charter. 1 As required in article 51, the US and the UK reported to the UN on the reasons for invoking the article to justify their military action. The Taliban Government of Afghanistan was considered an accomplice to the events of 9/11 and, therefore, a justifiable target for action. United Nations Security Council Resolutions had already been passed requiring the Taliban to stop giving sanctuary to al-Qaeda.
1. Smith, Ben and Thorp Arabella ; The Legal Basis for The Invasion of Afghanistan, 26 th Feb 2010.
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Targets of U.S in Afghanistan: While U.S.A attacked Afghanistan, it had the following targets, more to say results that it would have liked to achieve: 1. Complete destruction of the hideouts of Al-Qaeda and Taliban, so as to increase the security of America at large and rest of the world in general. For that matter, the U.S made frequent air strikes before landing its troops inside Afghanistan. 2. Drug trafficking and smuggling have been one of the major issues that governments and invaders had faced in the past. The U.S wanted to take control of this situation so as to stop disturbances at the borders. 3. The biggest wealth of the present times in the natural resources of fuel that made many countries in the past to invade Afghanistan as well. A pipe line project that the U.S wanted to begin in Afghanistan in 1998 could not begin as there was no internationally recognized government in Afghanistan. after 2002,,the work on the pipe line started again.
Outcomes of U.S Attack on Afghanistan The U.S attacked Afghanistan with a hope to meet some targets, but to this day, nothing worthwhile has happened. Neither could they control the insurgencies by the militant groups nor could the start any noticeable programs within the state to uplift the education and economic standards of the country. The U.S and allies face threats by three types of groups: 1. Taliban and other insurgent groups like Gulbadin Hikmat Yars group, the Al-Qaeda faction and Haqqani network. 2. There are groups involved in drug trafficking and smuggling. 3. There are small tribes and clans that are involved in small scale disturbances at the local level. A rising drug trade, poor security forces, and pervasive corruption undermined the Karzai government, while Americans abandoned a successful strategy, failed to provide the necessary support, and allowed a growing sanctuary for insurgents in Pakistan to catalyze the Taliban resurgence. 1
1. Jones, Seth : In the Graveyard of Empires, Americas War in Afghanistan WW Norton and Company 2009.
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PART-4 IMPACT OFAFGHANISTAN ON PAKISTAN'S NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY
NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY: The National Security Policy is a statement of principles that should guide national decision- making and determine courses of action to be taken in order to attain the state or condition wherein the national interests, the well-being of our people and institutions, and our sovereignty and territorial integrity are protected and enhanced. The purpose of the National Security Policy is to identify the strategic priorities to establish the correct balance in the guns or butter debate for the allocation of scarce resources; and to establish the prioritization, among others, between external and internal defense. in the following discussion we will discuss the national security policy of Pakistan and how has it been changing and modified over time. SECURITY POLICY OF PAKISTAN: From 1947 onwards After gaining independence from Britain, Pakistans security policy was mainly focused on maintaining a military balance with India. As India had an upper hand in terms of more and technologically advanced weapons, Pakistan always designed security policies with the pertinent threat of an arch rival next door in mind. Cold War Era There came a shift in the security policy of Pakistan during the cold War era after Pakistan emerged as a U.S ally. To attain strategic depth at the Western border, Pakistan thought it a good measure to train Mujahideen in Afghanistan. The borders were thus an open gateway for people living on both sides to mingle and travel. 1 Security policy of Pakistan after Russian Withdrawal This can also be called the post cold war era. U.S had emerged as the front runner in the politics of not only this region but globally. Pakistan had become a nuclear power by 1998 and it had gained military stability at the eastern border.
1. Krause, Joachim, and Charles K. Mallory. 2013. Afghanistan, Pakistan and strategic change: adjusting western regional policy 11
Meanwhile, the Taliban had emerged as a force in Afghanistan and their extremist policies were making Afghanis leave their homes and flee to Pakistan as the border was open for free travel. This led to heavy influx of migrants on the Western border and Pakistan which was already facing economic troubles and sanctions after becoming a nuclear power had to face the various problems that came along with these migrants, the major ones being drug trade and increase in internal security issues. Post 9/11 Security Policy After the 9/11 attacks on America, the security policy of Pakistan shifted to a new direction as Pakistan became the front line ally of America. Pakistan had to pay a price for this alliance in the form of internal security lapse. It was domino effect of accepting an ideology that was not acceptable to groups within and outside the country. Financial aid to Pakistan from 2001-2013 Being an ally of the U.S.A in its war against terror in Afghanistan, Pakistan was funded by the U.S.A. the following table gives a detailed account of U.S Aid and military reimbursements to Pakistan 1. All figures are in millions of dollars. Program FY2002- 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014(requested) Security aid total 1,295 396 517 989 1,236 1,277 849 Data not complete 397
Economic Aid total 2,152 576 506 1366 1,796 1186 1067 63 766
CSF fund 4947 731 1019 685 1499 1118 688 NO DATA
Grand Total 8394 1703 2043 3040 4504 3581 2604 63 1163 *CSF is counterinsurgency fund
1. : U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Agriculture; U.S. Agency for International Development. 12
Continued U.S support after withdrawal The U.S claims Pakistan to be one of its important allies in the war and wants a strong democratic Pakistan that is able to play a crucial role in the geo-politics of the region even after the troops withdraw from Afghan soil. The FY2014 budget request indicates the level of importance the Obama Administration places on a stable, democratic, and prosperous Pakistan because of its critical role in the region with respect to U.S. counterterrorism efforts, nuclear nonproliferation, regional stability, the peace process in Afghanistan, and regional economic integration and development. 1 PART-5 REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF WITHDRAWAL OF U.SFORCES
1. Role of Iran Iran is one of the major countries in the region. The U.S must engage Iran constructively in an effort to find out the level of mutual interest. This development of mutual understanding and interest can be beneficial for the development of Afghanistan by having peace at one end of the border. 2 While the future of U.S.-Iranian relations remains unclear, any improvement in the relationship would facilitate the success of U.S.-supported initiatives in Afghanistan: the New Silk Road strategy, which seeks to improve Afghanistans economic ties with Central and South Asia, and the Heart of Asia confidence-building process, which fosters high-level dialogue on security, political, and economic cooperation among Afghanistan and its neighbors. Both are catchwords for Washingtons policy of trying to shift more responsibility for Afghanistans reconstruction to the states of the region. But the international sanctions against Iran and the state of U.S.-Iranian relations are making it difficult for policymakers in Washington to implement this regional approach .
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1. A Guest Lecture Report on Post Withdrawal Scenario in Afghanistan; its impact on FATA. FATA Research Center 2. Laipson, Ellen B. 2012. Engaging Iran on Afghanistan. Washington, DC: Henry L. Stimson Center. 13
Role of India India has a very significant role to play when it comes to the post withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan. The U.S has considerable influence on both India and Pakistan. Peace between the two countries is essential for creating peace in the entire region as well as Afghanistan. 1 A worrying thing is the recent visit of John Kerry to the region annoying Pakistan and giving India an upper hand by saying that India could play Central Role in Afghanistan elections and in settling the ongoing disputes to create peace.This statement of Senator Kerry hardly shows that if Pakistan has had any central role to play in Afghanistan, post withdrawal of American forces from the war torn region? Afghanistan is an important traditional security numerator for India and Pakistan. India has always regarded political upheavals in Afghanistan as its internal affair. A robust Indian role in Afghanistan should serve to advance other U.S. foreign policy objectives as well. In its efforts to gain greater access to Central Asian energy markets, for example, Delhi will need to develop an effective trade and transportation infrastructure in Afghanistan to connect with the Central Asian Republics (CARs), particularly Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. This will, in turn, reduce Chinas influence in South and Central Asia an objective that both Washington and Delhi share.India is not an immediate neighbour of Afghanistan having no geographical, religious or ethnic linkages. Giving India a window of opportunity in the post-2014 withdrawal will have serious implications for the region instead of bringing peace. Pakistan needs to be cautious of Indias role in Afghanistan. So Pakistani sensitivities regarding India should be kept in mind. If U.S keeps on muddling the situation like this then bringing peace in the region seems to be even far from difficult. Despite treating Pakistan like a banana republic. United States has to portray its policies in the region which should be aiming to strike a balance between India and Pakistan, until and unless both Pakistan and India resolves their major disputes. So there is a need for realization among the international community that Pakistan has a greater role in the war-torn country and always tried to make a positive contribution. Also it is believed that in South Asia, Pakistan is a linchpin in rooting out terrorism from the region, and the US cannot succeed without Pakistan.
1 . Soherwordi,Syed Hussain Shaheed .Withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan (Endgame): Issues and challenges for Pakistan . Journal of Political Studies, Vol. 19, Issue - 1, 2012, 129:141 14
CONCLUSION Role of Pakistan As the U.S and its allies withdraw from Afghanistan, the political and economic fall out can be devastating. Especially its implications on Pakistan are fearsome. Pakistan might fall victim of terrorist attacks and a further downfall in economy. The impact of withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan is a complex issue when it comes to the after effects. The political parties in Pakistan take the withdrawal decision appreciatively as this will be a step to creating peace in the FATA and KPK regions. 1 Keeping in mind the deep rooted historic rivalry of India and Pakistan, Pakistan wants peace at its border with Afghanistan. This would mean an end of the tireless war at the Afghan border. Pakistan now needs to develop a security policy which is suitable to meet the challenges the withdrawal of U.S troops from Afghanistan can bring. The biggest can be the rise of Taliban and increase in insecurity.The security policy should be friendly but diplomatic and one that makes government stick to the policy of non-intervention in other countries internal issues, Islamabads Jinnah Institute in its briefing (July 25, 2011) spelled out Pakistans objectives in relation to post-withdrawal Afghanistan. The most outstanding point made in the report pertained to India: Pakistani foreign policy elite accept that India has a role to play in Afghanistans economic reconstruction but Pakistani security establishment [thinks] a reluctance to address Pakistani misgivings increases the likelihood of a growing Indian footprint, and in turn, New Delhis greater ability to manipulate the endgame negotiations and the post-settlement dispensation in Kabul.
1. Jones, Seth G.. After the Withdrawal: A Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013. http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT382
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STEPS TO BE TAKEN BY PAKISTAN Pakistan expects Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network, Hekmatyars Hizb-i-Islami, ragtag warlords of Fata and Malakand to battle an Afghan Army already inclined to defection. But manpower will still be needed to even the scales and speed up defections. The Taliban will be helped by the Punjabi Taliban, of which the Asian Tigers are already aligned to the Haqqanis. The Defence of Pakistan Council headed by the powerful Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) will oblige with more Punjabi manpower. The JuD leader Hafiz Saeed allegedly says he alone can muster 100,000. Pakistan is home to the armies that will enter Afghanistan but it hardly controls them. Therefore, the blowback from Afghanistan this time will be transformational for Pakistan. It may not survive the fundraising by its non-state actors through kidnappings and bank robberies in its major cities. This trend among the state-supported jihadi outfits has been in evidence. The Taliban in Pakistan have been criminalised. In affected areas, criminals are in the process of becoming Talibanised. Vendettas are carried out increasingly with suicide bombers because Taliban are busy selling their surplus fedayeen. Karachi and Peshawar are already paralysed by kidnappings for ransom. From the current trend in its Defence Housing Authority, Lahore too, is expected to be targeted in a big away.Pakistan has sought to appease terrorism by becoming anti-American and pro-Taliban. The policy of appeasement will proceed to its logical end. The remaining attributes of the state will fall off, with religious parties, plus madrassas with jihadi capacity, increasingly exercising authority in its name.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. 1. Ritscher, Adam, A Brief history of Afghanistan. http://www.afghangovernment.com/briefhistory.htm 2. 2. Bosin, Yury. Afghanistan, resistance to 19th century British invasion, 2009. 3. Afghanistan Invaded by Soviets, December 27, 1979 . http://www.aasd.k12.wi.us/staff/hermansenjoel/sawar.pdf 4. Quoted in Jean-Charles Brisard and Guillaume Dasqui, Forbidden Truth: U.S.-Taliban Secret Oil Diplomacy and the Failed Hunt for Bin Laden (New York: Thunders Mouth Press/Nation Books, 2002),
5. Jones, Seth : In the Graveyard of Empires, Americas War in Afghanistan WW Norton and Company 2009.
6. Smith, Ben and Thorp Arabella ; The Legal Basis for The Invasion of Afghanistan, 26 th
Feb 2010. 7. . Soherwordi,Syed Hussain Shaheed .Withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan (Endgame): Issues and challenges for Pakistan . Journal of Political Studies, Vol. 19, Issue - 1, 2012, 129:141