Ontario Income and Housing

Affordability Trends
New Data from the 2006 Census and Statscan SLID series
By Vince Brescia
May 2008

Income Trends 1976 to 2006

From Statscan SLID Database

Family Average Versus Median

Market1 Income Ontario, $2006
$70,000

Average
Median

$65,000

Average up but median down =

changing earnings distribution

$60,000

ne
Trendli

$55,000
$50,000

Trendline

$45,000

1. Market income is income excluding government transfers.

Source: FRPO based on Statscan Income Trends in Canada, 2006.

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

$40,000

Median Family After-tax1 Income

Ontario, $2006
$52,000

Increasing income redistribution by

government has more than offset
declining median market incomes

$50,000
$48,000
$46,000
$44,000
$42,000

Early 90s recession

was deep
2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

$40,000
1. After-tax income reflects income after government transfers and taxes, and is the best indicator of household
income after government redistributive measures.

Source: FRPO based on Statscan Income Trends in Canada, 2006.

Lowest quintile after-tax family

income in Ontario, $2006
$17,000

Up 22% since 1976

$16,000
$15,000
$14,000
$13,000
$12,000
$11,000

The poor are getting richer, contrary

to what you might hear in the news

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$10,000

Source: FRPO based on Statistics Canada Cansim Table 202-0706.

Highest quintile after-tax income in

Ontario, $2006
$85,000
$80,000

Up 32% since 1976

$75,000
$70,000
$65,000
$60,000
$55,000

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$50,000

Source: FRPO based on Statistics Canada Cansim Table 202-0706.

Percent of Families in Low-Income, or with

Market or After-tax incomes below $10,000,
$2006, Ontario
25

Early 90s recession

dramatically increased
low income incidence

20
15

Incidence of low income on the

decline since the mid-1990s

10
5

Source: FRPO based on Statscan Income Trends in Canada, 2006.

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1994

Low Income
Market Income under $10K
After-tax income under $10

Growth in After-tax Family Income

Between 1976 & 2006 by Quintile, Ontario
35%

Strong growth in standard of living

for all quintiles. Highest quintile
growth significantly higher

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
All
Families

Lowest
quintile

Second
quintile

Third
quintile

Fourth
quintile

Source: FRPO based on Statistics Canada Cansim Table 202-0706

Highest
quintile

Median After-tax Income by Family

Type, Ontario, $2006
Seniors Versus All Families
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000

Seniors have seen the greatest

improvement in incomes

$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
All family units

Elderly married couples

Elderly females

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$0

Median After-tax Income by Family

Type, Ontario, $2006
One-Earner Vs. Two-Earner Families
$80,000
$75,000
$70,000

2-parent family with children, 1 earner

2-parent families with children, 2 earners

$65,000
$60,000
$55,000

A big divergence between 1

earner and 2 earner families

$50,000
$45,000
$40,000

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$35,000

Source: FRPO based on Statscan Income Trends in Canada, 2006.

Median After-tax Income by Family

Type, Ontario, $2006
$34,000

Non-Elderly Males Vs. Females

Both Earners and Non-earners
Single male incomes
decline by one-third
during recession

$32,000
$30,000
$28,000
$26,000
$24,000
$22,000
$20,000

Non-elderly males
Non-elderly females

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$18,000

Source: FRPO based on Statscan Income Trends in Canada, 2006.

Median After-tax Income by Family

Type, Ontario, $2006
$34,000

Non-Elderly Males Vs. Females

Earners Only

$32,000
$30,000
$28,000
$26,000
$24,000

Non-elderly males, earner

Non-elderly females, earner

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$22,000

Male earners heavily

impacted by 1990s recession

Source: FRPO based on Statscan Income Trends in Canada, 2006.

Median After-tax Income by Family

Type, Ontario, $2006
Non-Elderly Males Vs. Females
Earners Only
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000

Non-elderly males, earner

Non-elderly females, earner
Non-elderly females, non-earner
Non-elderly males, non-earner

$10,000
$5,000

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$0

Source: FRPO based on Statscan Income Trends in Canada, 2006.

Median After-tax Income by Family

Type, Ontario, $2006
$55,000
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000

Male lone-parent families

Female lone-parent families

$30,000
$25,000
$20,000

19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06

$15,000

Census Income
2000 to 2005

Average and Median Household

Income in 2000 & 2005, $2006
80,000
2000
2005

75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
Average

Median

Ontario Families Percent by Income

Range, 2000 and 2005, $2005
14%
12%

2000
2005

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

150+

125-149

100-124

90-99

80-89

70-79

Source: Statistics Canada, Census data.

60-69

50-59

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

<5

Income ($000)

Change in % of Families in Select

Income Ranges, 2000 & 2005, $2005
2.0
1.5
1.0

Positive movement on each side of

the median. Median alone does
not tell this story.

0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Below
$30,000

$30,000$44,900

Source: Statistics Canada, Census data.

$45,000$99,999

$100,000+

Change in # of Families in Select

Income Ranges, 2000 to 2005
(adjusted to 2005 population based on percentages), $2005
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
-50,000
Below
$30,000

$30,000$44,900

Source: Statistics Canada, Census data.

$45,000$99,999

$100,000+

Renters by Income Groups, Ontario

1995 and 2000, $2001
400,000
1995

350,000

2000

300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Under
$10K

$10-19K $20,29K $30,39K $40-49K $50-59K

$60K +

The 2000-2005 trend is a continuation of the 1995-2000 trend.

Census Historic Rents

Average Gross Rent

Ontario, Constant $2006
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2006

Average Owners Major Payments

Ontario, Constant $2006
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2006

Average Rents as a Percent of

Owners Major Payments, Ontario
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2006

Average Gross Rent

Toronto CMA, Constant $2006
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Source: FRPO based on Census and CPI, various years

Census Historic Incomes

Average Renter Household

Income, Ontario, Constant $2006
$48,000
$46,000
$44,000
$42,000
$40,000
$38,000
$36,000
$34,000
$32,000
$30,000
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2005

Average Owner Household

Income, Ontario, Constant $2006
$100,000
$95,000
$90,000
$85,000
$80,000
$75,000
$70,000
$65,000
$60,000
$55,000
$50,000
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2005

Census Historic
Affordability Averages

Average Rent Percent of

Average Household Income
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1981

1986

Source: Census, various years.

1991

1996

2001

2006

Average Rent Percent of Average

Per Capita Income, Ontario
45
40
35
30
25
20
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Source: FRPO based on Census and Statistics Canada data.

2006

Average Rent Percent of Income

by Income Type, Ontario
50
40
30

Implication: disposable
income per capita, after
housing costs, is increasing

Per Capita Income

Household Income

20
10
0
1981

1986

1991

1996

Source: FRPO based on Census and Statistics Canada data.

2001

2006

Average Gross Rent Vs. Lowest

Quintile Family Income, Ontario
Improving
living
standards

80
75

Percent

70
65
60
55
50
45
40
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Source: FRPO based on Census and Statistics Canada data.

2006

Average Rent Vs. Lowest Quintile

Per Capita Income, Ontario
210
200
190
Percent

180
170
160
150
140
130
120
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Source: FRPO based on Census and Statistics Canada data.

2006

Average Rent Percent of Average

Renter Household Income, Ontario
30%

This is not how housing affordability should be

gauged for society! Pool of renters is shrinking.

25%

20%

15%

10%
1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Source: FRPO based on Census and Statistics Canada data.

2006

Census Number of Households

Paying 30-50% Income on Housing

Households Paying More Than 50% of

Income on Housing Costs, Ontario
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1981

1986

1991

1996

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2001

2006

Renter Households Paying More Than

50% of Income in Rent, Ontario
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1981

1986

1991

1996

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2001

2006

Renter Households Paying More Than

30% of Income in Rent, Ontario
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1981

1986

1991

1996

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2001

2006

Owner Households Paying More Than

50% of Income on Housing Costs, Ontario
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1981

1986

1991

1996

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2001

2006

Owner Households Paying More Than

30% of Income on Housing Costs, Ontario
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1981

1986

1991

1996

Source: Statistics Canada Census, various years

2001

2006

Census Age of Rental Stock

Age Distribution of Ontario Housing

Stock in Years, 2006
25%
20%

Ownership
Rental

15%
10%
5%
0%
> 85 61-85 46-60 36-45 26-35 21-25 16-20 11-15 6-10

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