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1)
Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of Poverty in Kano
Metropolis, Nigeria

Ibra*im Inuwa +alarabe
Department of Economics and ,anagement Science
Nigeria "olice -cadem.( /udil(".,.+. 0)7)( 1ano-Nigeria
E-mail2 ibinuwa3gmail.com

Abstract
4*is paper provides some e5planations of t*e causes of povert. in 1ano metropolis b. investigating povert.
determinants t*at are too often neglected in t*e literature and in polic. debates. 4*e stud. comprises of si5 local
governments in t*e state w*ic* include Dala( 6agge( 7wale( ,unicipal( Nasarawa and 4arauni. "rimar. data
was collected using 8uestionnaire and interview from one *undred and twent. !12# residents selected in t*e
stud. area. 4*e data was anal.9ed using a probit regression anal.sis and t*e result s*owed t*at all coefficients of
t*e e5planator. variables *ave a positive relations*ip wit* povert. e5cept t*at of education w*ic* *as a negative
relations*ip. 4*erefore( t*e paper recommended t*at government s*ould improve its program on economic
growt* and empowerment. It s*ould also double its support to educating .out* so as to ma:e t*em self reliant in
t*e future.
Keywords: "overt.( "robit model( 1ano ,etropolis( Nigeria.

! Introd"ction
4*e case of povert. in Nigeria *as reac*ed an alarming rate because t*e most pat*etic feature of Nigerian societ.
toda. is t*at( ma;orit. of its members are living in a state of destitution w*ile t*e remaining relativel.
insignificant minorit. are in affluence. 4*ese s:ewed economic relations do not reflect t*e geograp*ical spread
of resources endowment< rat*er it is a product of classical greed( in;ustice and selfis*ness w*ic* is be.ond an.
economic principle. 4*oug*( it is true t*at w*ere one comes from can be a strong determinant of one=s economic
status because of different opportunities and constraints( but w*at is *appening in our societ. toda. differs ver.
muc* from t*is. 4*e problem of povert. is a worldwide p*enomenon and *as attracted muc* attention in recent
.ears. "eople perceive povert. as a t*reat to t*e ver. e5istence of *uman:ind. >ne8ual distribution of global
weat*er *as e5acerbated t*e problem of povert. in t*e developing countries. It is estimated t*at one t*ird of
world population live in c*ronic povert. !7arba( 2?#.

#! $tatement of the %esearch Problem
4*e issue of povert. especiall. in 1ano State is ver. important to stud. because it affects man. residents in t*e
State w*o are now struggling to survive due to man. reasons. 6irstl.( povert. in 1ano *as been on increase after
t*e Januar.( 212 insurgents@ attac: w*ic* resulted in loss of man. lives and properties in t*e state and t*e
subsistent government decision to ban -c*aba operation !motorc.clist activit.# due to t*e prevalent insecurit.
situation. 4*e effort( t*oug* positive( *as contributed muc* in t*e current povert. problem since most of t*e
affected motorc.clists t*at form large portion of our .out*s cannot afford to bu. t*e tric.cle !-dai-daita sa*u#
and uninterestingl. government *as done not*ing to provide t*e affected people considerabl. wit* alternatives<
as -c*aba operation used to be t*e source of t*eir liveli*ood. Secondl.( t*e issue of poor and unstable power
suppl. in t*e state forced man. factories to close down and some moved to t*e Sout*ern part of t*e countr.
w*ere power suppl. is relativel. stable. 4*is situation of metropolitan povert. *as left man. people out of wor:
and uncertain on *ow to provide for t*emselves and t*eir families !Inuwa( 212#.
4*e ob;ective of t*is researc* is to investigate t*e determinants of povert. in 1ano metropolis focusing on Dala(
6agge( 7wale( ,unicipal( Nasarawa and 4arauni local government areas. In t*is researc*( we consider a number
of factors t*at ma. influence socio-economic conditions and cause povert. to man. residents in t*e stud. area.
4*e stud. intends to bring to t*e attention of polic.ma:ers t*e prevalence of povert. in t*e urban area and offer
suggestions to tac:le it. 4*is is because urban povert. *as been a low priorit. on researc* development agenda
of Nigerian government for over two decades and t*is *ave been dominated b. rural development and rural
povert..

&! 'verview of Kano state
1ano state was created on ,a. 27( 1A?7. It originall. included Jigawa and in 1AA1 Jigawa was given an
autonom. t*erefore it became a state. 1ano state capital is 1ano. It *as an estimated population of 10 million
appro5imatel. !Bensus( 2?#. It *as )) local government areas. It s*ares borders wit* Jigawa state to t*e
nort*east( +auc*i and 1aduna states to t*e sout* and 1atsina state to t*e nort*west. Cistoricall.( 1ano state *as
been a commercial and agricultural state( it was popularl. :nown for t*e groundnut and cotton( s:in and craft
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production. 4*e state *as more t*an 10(??) s8uare :ilometers of cultivable land and is t*e most e5tensivel.
irrigated state in t*e countr.. 4*e state is endowed wit* mineral resource deposits suc* as cessiterite !tin#(
columbine( feldspar( glass sand( limestone( lead( 9inc( copper( wolfram and bau5ite. Causa language is
commonl. spo:en !/i:ipedia( 212#.

(! Definitions of Poverty
"overt. is t*e state for t*e ma;orit. of t*e world=s people and nations. It e5its w*en certain sections of people
cannot even satisf. t*eir basic primar. needs in terms of food( clot* and s*elter. It *as been an unmitigated curse
of t*e underdeveloped nations. It is a matter of great regret to state t*at more t*an one t*ird of our population
even toda. is below t*e povert. line.
-ccording to Encarta !2)#( povert. is said to e5ist w*en people lac: t*e means to satisf. t*eir basic needs. In
t*is conte5t( t*e poor are identified b. a determination to w*at constitutes basic needs t*ese needs are t*ose
necessar. for survival covering t*ose w*o fall below t*e population as a w*ole in terms of nutrition( *ousing(
clot*ing( *ealt* and education.
6or t*e /orld +an:( povert. indicators include *unger( lac: of s*elter( being sic: and not being able to see a
doctor( not *aving access to sc*ool and not :nowing *ow to read. "overt. is not *aving a ;ob( is t*e fear for t*e
future living one da. at a time. Dosing a c*ild to illness broug*t about b. water borne disease. "overt. is
powerlessness( lac: of representation and freedom !/orld +an:( 2)#.
&fficial definition of povert. b. government !'ision( 21#( povert. is a condition in w*ic* a person is unable
to meet minimum re8uirements of basic needs of food( *ealt*( *ousing( education and clot*ing.
-not*er one b. t*e /orld +an: !1AAA# argued t*at in some instance( t*e gender *ad dimension for men and
women( bo.s and girls. 4*e processes causing povert. affect men and women in different wa.s and degree.
6emale povert. is more prevalent and t.picall. more severe t*an male povert..
Now t*e 8uestion is w*. soE Is it enoug* to blame poor people for t*eir own predicamentE Cave t*e. been la9.(
made poor decisions and been solel. responsible for t*eir plig*tE /*at about t*eir governmentsE Cave t*e.
pursued policies t*at actuall. *arm successful developmentE Suc* causes of povert. and ine8ualit. are no doubt
real.

)! Empirical *iterat"re of poverty
"overt. *as no geograp*ical boundar.. It is seen in t*e nort*( west( sout* and east. It is found in rural as well as
urban areas of Nigeria. It is a comple5 *uman p*enomenon associated wit* unacceptabl. low standard of living
w*ic* *as multiple dimensions( manifestations and causes !/orld +an:( 21#. -ccording to Soludo !2?#
Nigeria *as been a countr. of parado5es even t*oug* it is it is abundantl. blessed wit* bot* natural and *uman
resources but t*e potentials remain largel. untapped and even mismanaged. /it* a population estimated at about
1) million( Nigeria is t*e largest countr. in -frica and one si5t* of t*e blac: population in t*e world. It is t*e
eig*t largest oil producer and *as t*e si5t* largest deposit of natural gas in t*e world. +ut unfortunatel.( t*e
growt* per capita income in t*e 1AAs was 9ero w*ile t*e incidence of povert. in 1AAA was 7F. -s a result of
different economic reforms and policies( t*e latest *ouse*old surve. b. t*e National +ureau Statistics !N+S#
indicated t*at t*e incidence of povert. *as significantl. dropped from 7F in 1AAA to %)F in 2) w*ile t*e
urban and rural povert. for t*at .ear was )0.1AF and ?0.27F respectivel.. 4*oug*( t*e incidence of povert. in
Nigeria is *ig*er in t*e rural area t*an in t*e urban centers( t*e urban slum-dwellers form one of t*e most
deprived groups. 4*e recent renewed interest in urban issues *as been due to t*e wide spread idea t*at
urbani9ation is speeding up. -t t*e end of t*e .ear 2 about *alf of t*e world@s population live in urban areas(
w*ile in 1A7% t*is was onl. 2$F. In 1A7( developing countries level of urbani9ation was 2%F. In 1AA)( it
increased to 07F and it is pro;ected to be %7F b. 22% !>N( 2)#.
- stud. conducted in 2$ s*owed t*at( all nort*ern states *ave all t*e natural and *uman resources to rubbis*
povert.( but ironicall. t*e. are t*e *it( ravaged and rubbis*ed b. c*ronic and devastated povert.. "overt. is one
of t*e most profound problems being grappled wit* in t*e nort*ern states of Nigeria. It *as contributed
substantiall. to t*e erosion and undermining of t*e foundation of peaceful coe5istence and stable national
development. 4*is is parado5ical as it is clearl. and ine5plicable issue of povert. amidst plent.. 4*e statistics
are grap*ic and confounding. -s muc* as 7? percent of nort*erners are said to be living in povert.( earning an
income of less t*an t*e e8uivalent of one -merican dollar a da.. It furt*er s*owed t*at povert. in nort*ern
Nigeria *as great regional( sectoral and gender disparities. 4*e current s*ortage of stable leading to t*e increase
in prices of t*e most foodstuffs is a warning about t*e severit. of p*.siologicalGdis;ointed deprivation bare
p*.sical survival of t*e people. -part from water( food is t*e most basic input for *uman survival< in addition
*uman deprivation( income povert. and social deprivation *ave become aggravated. "overt. is a problem
afflicting most people in nort*ern states. It is considered as one of t*e manifestations of underdevelopment. 4*e
poor in t*e nort*ern states are still widel. considered worse off as man. indications reflecting t*e abilit. to
provide for t*e p*.sical subsistence for t*e upliftment or *uman dignit. are below e5pectation. 4*us( povert.
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constitutes a t*reat to t*e growt* and securit. of nort*ern states as well as t*e general standard of living of t*e
nort*ern populace( Sani !2$#.
-not*er report b. t*e >ND" 2) s*ows during t*e period 1A$-2)( t*e national povert. rates were as
follows2 2$.1F !1A$#( )?.0F !1A$%#( )2.7F !1AA2#( ?%.?F !1AA?# and %).)F !2)#. 4*is means t*at povert.
incidence in t*e countr. recorded increase between 1AA2 and 1AA?. 4*e results also s*owed appreciable decrease
in povert. between 1A$% and 1AA2 and between 1AA? and 2). Even wit* t*e drop in population rates( t*e
population *as maintained a stead. increase in povert. from 17.1m in 1A$ to ?$.7m in 2). Nigerians in terms
of p*.sical 8ualit. of life inde5 scored 0$F in 1AA1( t*e *uman development inde5 was .0A1 in 1AA$( ran:ing
t*e countr. as t*e 1)2
nd
out of t*e 17) countries surve.ed. In t*e .ear 22( t*e Cuman Development Inde5
!CDI# score was .)??( w*ic* ran:ed t*e countr. still in t*e low *uman development countries( in t*e 1%1
st

ran:ing among 177 countries surve.ed.
-not*er report b. t*e International ,onetar. 6und !I,6# and t*e /orld +an: in 2) s*owed t*at cutbac:s in
*ealt*( education and ot*er vital social services around t*e world w*ic* resulted from structural ad;ustment
policies as conditions for loans and repa.ment was responsible for t*e povert. in developing nations. So t*e. are
re8uired to open t*eir economies to compete wit* eac* ot*er and wit* more powerful and establis*ed
industriali9ed nations. Ine8ualit. is often a measure of relative povert.. -bsolute povert.( *owever( is also a
concern. 6or e5ample( t*e new povert. line is defined as living on t*e e8uivalent of H1.2% a da.. /it* t*at
measure based on latest data available 2)( 1.) billion people live on or below t*at line. 6urt*ermore( almost
*alf t*e worldIover t*ree billion peopleIlive on less t*an H2.% a da. and at least $F of *umanit. lives on
less t*an H1 a da..
In general povert. ma. be seen as a situation of ver. low income culminating in ver. low consumption levels. It
*as bot* income and non-income dimensions( w*ic* are usuall. interconnected. It is manifested in t*e form of
low income( e5posure to disease( low standard of living( unemplo.ment and *ig* degree of social ine8ualit.
among t*e people.

+! Data so"rce and sampling
4*e source of data in t*is researc* is primar.. Juestionnaires were administered to t*ose w*o can read and write
w*ile structure interview was conducted to t*ose w*o cannot read and write. 4*e sample si9e of t*e researc* was
randoml. drawn from t*e si5 metropolitan local government areas. In eac* area( twent. residents were selected
and a total of one *undred and twent. residents were c*osen as respondents.

,! Model specification
4*e statistical met*odolog. used in t*is researc* is t*e &DS estimation model. It followed t*at of &sinubi !210#
in *is stud. of @- t*eoretical and empirical investigation of povert. in rural 7eorgia Bounties in >nited States@.
4*e model was e5pressed in t*e following linear e8uation<
RRIPIRII

= [
1
+ [
2
FHIEE + [
3
N0ES + [
4
0uIHIC0 + [
5
BIK + [
6
wEI + [
7
FSIHPS +
[
8
EwPI + c

------------------------------------------------------------------- I
/*ere<
RRIPIRII

K dependent variable representing residents w*o are below povert. line.
FHIEE K e5planator. variable representing *ouse*olds *eaded b. women.
N0ES K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o do not *ave a *ig* sc*ool diploma.
0uIHIC0 K e5planator. variable of residents w*ose *ead left t*em and moved to anot*er town.
BIK K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o are +lac: people in t*e stud. area.
wEI K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o are /*ite people in t*e stud. area.
FSIHPS K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o received food stamps in t*e area.
EwPI K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o lived b. *ig*wa. mileage.
In order to investigate t*e empirical determinants of povert. in 1ano metropolitan areas( &sinubi@s
model is adopted and modified to form t*e following linear e8uation2
PII

= [
1
+ [
2
FwE + [
3
uNE + [
4
0uH + [
5
Eu + c

---------------------------------- II
'ariables e5plained<
PII K dependant variable representing residents w*o are below t*e povert. line.
FwE K e5planator. variable representing *ouse*olds *eaded b. women wit* no *usband !1K if t*e *ead is
woman( K if ot*erwise#.
uNE K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o are unemplo.ed !1K if emplo.ed( K if unemplo.ed#.
0uH K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o moved from 1ano to anot*er state outmigration !1K if
t*e *ead of *ouse*old moves to anot*er state( K if ot*erwise#.
Eu K e5planator. variable representing residents w*o *ave a *ig* sc*ool diploma education !1K if t*e resident
*as *ig*er sc*ool diploma( K if ot*erwise#.
7iven t*e selected variables( t*e coefficient signs of eac* variable could be predicted. 4*e sign of variable
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representing *ouse*olds *eaded b. women will *ave a positive relations*ip wit* t*e povert.. 4*e sing of
variable representing *ead of *ouse*old w*o is unemplo.ed will also *ave positive relations*ip povert.. 4*e
sing of variable representing a *ouse*old w*ose *ead moved to anot*er state will *ave a positive relations*ip
wit* povert.. /*ile t*at variable representing *ouse*old level of education will *ave a negative relations*ip
wit* povert..

-! %es"lt and disc"ssion
.able : Estimated Probit %es"lts
/ariables Estimated coefficient Marginal probability
012 3!,),) 3!3#(44
5NE 3!&)) 3!&))-4
'5M 3!&63 3!##,-4
ED7 83!+&3- 3!,+4
Source2 Lesearc*er=s computation using E-views !7.#.
Number of observations 12< log li:eli*ood -)).200?%( restricted log li:eli*ood -)$.A%70( significant at MMM
!N.1# MM !pN.%# M!pN.1#< Source2 computer printout( 21).
"robit regression model was used to identif. factors responsible for povert. in 1ano metropolis. In t*e table
above( coefficients of t*ree out of four e5planator. variables are statisticall. significant in t*e model. So it is
evident from t*e table t*at t*e variables are significant in investigating determinants of povert. in t*e model.
4*e marginal effects were indication of unit c*ange in e5ogenous variable on t*e probabilit. of povert. increase
to t*e *ouse*olds.
6/C was found to be statisticall. significant at %F wit* a positive value of coefficient .7%7%. 4*e e5pectation
is t*at t*e *ig*er t*e population w*o *as *ouse*olds *eaded b. females wit* no *usbands present will *ave a
*ig*er percentage of povert.. 4*is indicates t*at a 1F increase in female-controlled *ouse*olds will increase t*e
probabilit. of povert. b. 2F *olding all ot*er variables constant. 4*e assumption for t*is is t*at in a single
parent *ouse*old( onl. one income is reflected. /omen on average ma:e less t*an t*eir male counterparts
because t*e. are less educated and less s:illed and also c*ild care constraints can furt*er *inder t*eir ;ob
performance t*erefore( t*e. receive lower wage rates and t*e. are less li:el. to participate in t*e labour force.
4*is was ;ustified b. &sinubi !210# in *is stud. on a t*eoretical and empirical investigation of povert. in rural
7eorgia Bounties in >nited States.
-not*er e5planator. variable is t*e percentage of people wit* no ;ob represented b. >NE. 4*e variable was
found to be statisticall. significant at 1F but *as a positive coefficient .0%1)A. 4*e e5pectation *ere is t*at t*e
*ig*er t*e *ouse*olds w*o are unemplo.ed t*e *ig*er t*e percentage of povert. in t*at population. 4*is
indicates t*at a 1F increase in unemplo.ment will result in 0?F probabilit. increase in povert..
4*e outmigration &>, is statisticall. significant in t*e model at 1F wit* a positive value of coefficient
.0A1$1. It is e5pected to *ave a positive relations*ip wit* povert.. +. *olding all ot*er variables constant( t*e
povert. will increase b. 0AF if t*e *ouse*old=s *eads abandoned t*eir famil. and moved to anot*er state. 4*is
indicates t*at about 1F increase in outmigration will increase t*e probabilit. of povert. b. 20F.
Education !EDB# was found to be statisticall. significant at 1F wit* a negative value if coefficient .?07A.
-bout 1F increase in educational status will decrease t*e probabilit. of povert. b. 12F. 4*e no *ig* sc*ool
diploma variable was *.pot*esi9ed to *ave a negative relations*ip wit* povert.. 4*is means t*at percentage of
people wit* no *ig* sc*ool education increased it will also increase povert.. 4*e regression result for t*is
variable was constant wit* t*e *.pot*esis t*at 1F increase in educational status will decrease povert. b. 12F.
4*e assumption *ere is t*at( *istoricall. people wit*out *ig* sc*ool diplomas are more susceptible to economic
*ards*ip t*an t*ose wit* *ig* sc*ool diploma.

6! 7oncl"sion and recommendations
4*e researc* was conducted to investigate t*e empirical attributes of povert. in 1ano state. 6our independent
variables were tested using a probit regression model to see t*e significance of eac* proposed cause of povert..
'ariables used included *ouse*olds *eaded b. women in t*e residence( people wit* no ;ob in a given residence(
people wit* no *ig* sc*ool diploma and *ouse*olds w*ose *eads moved to anot*er state. 4o do t*is( a probit
regression linear model was emplo.ed.
4*e researc* recommends t*at government s*ould improve its programs on economic growt* and empowerment.
It s*ould increase its efforts to educate .out*s so as to build and strengt*en t*eir *uman capital and get out of
povert. and to contribute more to t*e econom. and societ.. 7overnment s*ould also intensif. effort to provide
people wit* credit facilit. to afford alternatives to -c*aba w*ic* will improve t*eir per capita income( since it
banned t*e motorc.cle operation in t*e state. It furt*er recommends t*at a meaningful and long-term alleviation
of *unger s*ould be rooted in t*e povert. alleviation program since povert. leads to *unger and a *unger is a
terrible s.mptom of povert..
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%eferences
Economics Dictionar.< !2?#( "ublis*ed b. arrangement wit* -cademic !India# publis*ers( New Del*i- 11$.
1
st
Edition( 2?
Encarta !2#(@Enc.clopaedia +ritannica.
7arba( -. !2?#( @-lleviating "overt. in Nort*ern Nigeria@( - paper presented at t*e -nnual Bonference of
Oumunta -ssociation >S-( ,inneapolis( ,N( Jul. 2$-2A( 2?.
Inuwa( I.+. !212#2 P-ssessment of t*e Determinants of Emplo.ment in t*e 1ofar /ambai S*oe ,a:ing
Industr.( 1ano State@2 - publication in t*e 2
nd
Edition of N9':ED, 'ol. 1 No.2 !ISSN21)1-02A?#
J>NE( 212. Department of +usiness -dministration and ,anagement( Sc*ool of ,anagement Studies(
1ano State "ol.tec*nic( 1ano.
J*ingan( ,.D. !22# P4*e Economics of Development and "lanningQ 'rinda "ublication !p# ltd. +-%( comple5(
ma.or vi*ar( p*ases I Del*i-11A1.
National +ureau of Statistics !N+S( 2?#(@ "overt. "rofile in Nigeria@. 7anfee: ventures( pg-$7.
&sinubi( -. !210#( @@- t*eoretical and Empirical Investigation of "overt. in Lural 7eorgia Bounties@@( - paper
presented at t*e Sout*ern -gricultural Economics -ssociation !S-E-# -nnual ,eeting( &rlando(
6lorida( 0-% 6ebruar.( 210.
Soludo( B. !2?#(@"otential Impacts of t*e 7lobal 6inance -rc*itecture on "oor Bountries@. Edited b. B*arles
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>nited Nations Development "rogram !1AA?( 2)#< Nigerian Caman Development Leport( >ND"( Nigeria
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/orld +an: !21#( @/orld Development Leport 2G212 -ttac:ing povert.@.
*ttp2GGen.wi:ipedia .orgGwi:iG1ano state

APPENDI;
Dependent 'ariable2 "'4R
,et*od2 ,D - +inar. "robit !Juadratic *ill climbing#
Date2 7G2G1) 4ime2 )212
Sample2 1 12
Included observations2 12
Bonvergence ac*ieved after ) iterations
Bovariance matri5 computed using second derivatives


'ariable Boefficient Std. Error 9-Statistic "rob.


B .)0%7% .%17% .$?$%) .A0$
6/C .7%7%)? .02A10 2.01??2 .21)
>NE .0%1)%A .0$?) .A2000% .0%%$
&>, .0A1$1 .02)2$% 1.2%A$1 .227$
ED> -.?07A .)011$ -1.%?)77A .117?


,c6adden Ls8uared .A?)$% ,ean dependent var .$%$000
S.D. dependent var .0%17 S.E. of regression .0)?A
-:ai:e info criterion .$2%?1 Sum s8uared resid 10.0)1?$
Sc*war9 criterion .A0?7? Dog li:eli*ood -)).200?%
Cannan-Juinncriter. .$?772$ Deviance $$.)?72A
Lestr. Deviance A7.A1)%A Lestr. log li:eli*ood -)$.A%70
DL statistic A.))70 -vg. log li:eli*ood -.0?$?1)
"rob!DL statistic# .%$)1


&bs wit* DepK 17 4otal obs 12
&bs wit* DepK1 10


The IISTE is a pioneer in the Open-Access hosting service and academic event
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