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Modeling temperature changes

As the year progresses, most regions of the world experience
signicant changes in temperature. Days tend to be cold for a
few months, then get warmer, then hot. After some hot weather,
the temperature lowers, eventually getting to be more or less
the temperature it was at the beginning the cycleafter about
a year.
When making simple models of temperatures over several A model is a function that
approximates a relationship
between two variablesin this
case, temperature as a function of
time.
years, the sine function can be quite helpful. Here is a graph of
the sine function, y = sin x (with x in radians):
1. The period of a function is the length of the portion that
is repeated.
(a) What is the period (in radians) of the sine function?
(b) For a function that models the temperature for several
years, what would you like the period to be? Consider
what unit of time you want to use.
(c) A general sine function might have the form
g(x) = a sin[b(x + c)] + d.
Which parametera, b, c, or dchanges the period of
this function?
(d) Write a sine function that has the period you specied
in part b.
2. The amplitude of a periodic function is half the dierence
between its highest value and its lowest value.
(a) What is the amplitude of y = sin x?
(b) The amplitude of a temperature model will depend on
the area being modeled. For Washington, D.C., the
normal (mean) high temperature is 89

F (in July) and

the normal low temperature is 27

F (in January). If
Problems with a Point: May 21, 2002 c EDC 2002
Modeling temperature changes: Problem 2
you use these as the maximum and minimum temper-
atures for a model, what do you want the amplitude
of the model to be?
(c) Again, the general sine function has the form
g(x) = a sin[b(x + c)] + d.
Which parametera, b, c, or dchanges the ampli-
tude of this function?
(d) Write a sine function that has the amplitude you spec-
ied in part b.
3. Write a sine function that has the amplitude you specied
in problem 2b and the period you specied in problem 1b.
4. Graph the function you wrote in problem 3.
(a) What are the minimum and maximum values of your
function?
(b) Modify your function so the minimum value is 27

.
(c) Is the maximum value of the modied function 89

?
(If not, go back to part b and try again.)
5. You almost have a model for the Washington, D.C., tem-
perature. The minimum temperature usually falls in Jan-
uary, but more useful data is dicult to nd.
(a) What is the smallest positive value of x for which your
functions minimum value occurs?
(b) If x = 0 represents Midnight as December 31 becomes
January 1, about when does your functions minimum
value occur? (Answer within a day or two.)
(c) Assume Washingtons minimum temperature falls around
January 15, and modify your function accordingly.
6. Here are normal maximum and minimum values for four
other U.S. cities. Create models for them, as well, assum-
ing the minimum temperature usually falls in the middle
of January for each. Temperatures are given in degrees
Fahrenheit.
City Min Max
(a) Chicago, IL 13 84
(b) Phoenix, AZ 41 106
(c) San Diego, CA 49 76
(d) Barrow, AK 19 45
Problems with a Point: May 21, 2002 c EDC 2002
Modeling temperature changes: Problem 3
7. Challenge Like most models, the functions you created If you want to study the eect of
temperature on a plant or animal,
for example, the model may be
realistic enough for your purposes.
arent entirely realistic. For example, each model should
give the same temperature value at the exact same second
of each year. This is unlikely to ever happen! For a computer model, there are
ways to introduce some random
variation into a model.
Another problem with these models is they dont account
for daily temperature changes. The model has the tem-
perature steadily increasing from winter to summer, then
steadily decreasing until winter again. In fact, outside tem-
perature has a regular pattern over the course of a day, too.
For example, here are some data for four January days in
Washington, D.C. Source: NOAA National Data
Centers, www.ncdc.noaa.gov
Temperature (

F)
Hour Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4
1 22 22 26 29
2 21 21 26 28
3 19 19 27 28
4 20 14 27 28
5 18 12 27 27
6 19 19 27 27
7 18 20 27 26
8 18 21 27 26
9 22 24 28 29
10 25 28 28 31
11 27 30 29 33
12 28 32 30 36
13 30 33 31 37
14 32 34 33 39
15 32 36 33 40
16 32 35 34 40
17 30 32 34 37
18 27 31 34 31
19 28 28 34 26
20 26 26 33 24
21 24 25 32 23
22 24 23 31 21
23 23 24 30 23
24 22 26 29 25
(a) Come up with an idea for how you might incorporate
some daily temperature change into the model. (Dont
worry about making the model completely realistic,
just a step closer by taking the daily pattern into ac-
count.)
(b) For a real challenge, write a function that models tem-
perature over years and includes the daily uctuation.
Graph the function.
If youre using a graphing
calculator to graph, youll
probably want to look at a few
weeks at a time. With a
computer graphing tool (and a
screen with better resolution), a
graph showing a full year might
be clear enough.
Problems with a Point: May 21, 2002 c EDC 2002
Modeling temperature changes: Hints 1
Hints
When trying to decide which parameter has a particular ef-
fect, rst decide what visual change will occur. For example,
in a change of period from 2 to 12 months, the function will
repeat less often. Then there are two things you can do:
Try choosing dierent values for a single parameter and
graphing the resulting function. How do the graphs change?
Does changing that parameter have the right eect? (Or,
perhaps, the opposite eectif you want the function to re-
peat less often but it repeats more often, youre on the right
track!)
Think about what changing the parameter does to the func-
tion values. For example, d adds a constant to the function
valueswhat does that do to the graph? The parameter a
multiplies the calculated sine, which is normally from 1
to 1. What does that do to the graph?
In both cases, you may nd it most helpful to work just with
the most basic functionwork with sin(bx) rather than some-
thing like 3 sin[b(x + 1)] 3, if you want to see what eect b
has.
Hint to problem 5c. Suppose you know that f(8) = 6. You
want to modify f to create a function g so that g(5) = 6that
is, you want to take the input for g, change it in a particular
way, then use the result as the input for f.
g(5) = f(an expression using 5) = 6
How can you change the input to be sure that g(5) = 6?
Hint to problem 7. Dont try to model the four days. Use
the data or graph to assume a reasonable amplitude for the
daily uctuation in temperature. What is the period for this
new pattern? How can that uctuation be taken into account
in the model?
Problems with a Point: May 21, 2002 c EDC 2002
Modeling temperature changes: Answers 1
Answers
1. (a) 2
(b) Possible answers: 1 year; 12 months; 52 weeks; 365
days; 365.25 days
(c) The parameter b changes the period.
(d) Answers may vary, depending on the units chosen and
what values are given to other parameters. For ex-
ample, T(x) = sin(
2
365
x) has a period of 365 days;
y = 3 sin[2(x + 2)] 23 has a period of 1 year (and
makes other changes to the sine function as well).
2. (a) 1
(b) 31
(c) The parameter a changes the amplitude.
(d) Answers may vary, but all should have 31 multiplied
by the sine of some expression. For example, T(x) =
31 sin x is correct, but so is y = 31 sin(3x 32) 12.
3. Answers should be of the form T(x) = 31 sin[b(x +c)] +d,
where b is the same as the function in problem 1d. For
example, if 365 days were used as the period, the function
might be T(x) = 31 sin(
2
365
x).
4. Graphs will vary.
(a) The minimum and maximum values may vary, depend-
ing on the value of d. If d = 0 (no constant term is
added), the minimum is 31 and the maximum is 31.
(b) Functions should be of the form
T(x) = 31 sin[b(x + c)] + 58,
where b is the same as in problems 1d and 3.
(c) Yes
5. (a) Answers may vary. If c = 0 (no constant term is
added to the sine functions input), the minimum oc-
curs at
3
2

1
b

, where b is the coecient of x. For ex-

ample, if 365 days is the period, the minimum occurs
at

3
2

365
2

, which is 273.75. If 1 year is the period,

the minimum occurs at 0.75 year.
(b) The minimum value occurs around October 1. Septem-
ber 30 and October 2 are also acceptable answers.
(c) Answers will vary according to the period chosen (see
the following examples). Exact value of parameter c
(the constant term for the input expression for sine)
Problems with a Point: May 21, 2002 c EDC 2002
Modeling temperature changes: Answers 2
can be increased by up to 1 day (about 0.0027 year)
as well.
Period Function
365 days T(x) = 31 sin[
2
365
(x + 257.75)] + 58
1 year T(x) = 31 sin[2(x + 0.7062)] + 58
6. For each, D(x) gives the function using a period of 365
days, and Y (x) gives the function using a period of 1 year.
Other periods are also possible. January 15 is used as the
day of the minimum temperature.
(a) D(x) = 35.5 sin[
2
365
(x + 257.75)] + 48.5 or
Y (x) = 35.5 sin[2(x + 0.7062)] + 48.5
(b) D(x) = 32.5 sin[
2
365
(x + 257.75)] + 73.5 or
Y (x) = 32.5 sin[2(x + 0.7062)] + 73.5
(c) D(x) = 13.5 sin[
2
365
(x + 257.75)] + 62.5 or
Y (x) = 13.5 sin[2(x + 0.7062)] + 62.5
(d) D(x) = 32 sin[
2
365
(x + 257.75)] + 13 or
Y (x) = 32 sin[2(x + 0.7062)] + 13
7. (a) You can add (and subtract) values over each day using
a function with a period of one day, and adding that
function to the rst model.
(b) One possible model, found by modifying the function
using x in days, is
T(x) = 31 sin

2
365
(x + 257.75)

+58+7 sin[2(x+0.583)]
Problems with a Point: May 21, 2002 c EDC 2002