June 30, 2009

Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee

Integrating Wind
Energy in ERCOT
Warren Lasher
Manager, System Assessment
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
The ERCOT Region is one
of 3 NERC grid
interconnections.
The ERCOT grid:
-75% of Texas land
-85% of Texas load
-38,000 miles of
transmission lines
-550+ generation units
-62,339 MW peak demand
(set 8/17/06)
2,877 MW of Switchable
Units
1,106 MW of Asynchronous
Tie Capacity (820 MW with
Eastern Interconnection)
North American Electric Grids
You are here
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee
J une 30, 2009
So What is a Deregulated Electricity Market?
In ERCOT:
Any party can connect their generation to the
transmission system
Retail customers can choose their electricity service
provider
Transmission and distribution (T&D) are still regulated
ERCOT, Inc., operates the transmission system to
facilitate the deregulated wholesale and retail markets
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Why Is There So Much Wind in ERCOT
Marginal cost of electricity is set by gas generation in
most hours (high variable cost)
Generators do not pay for transmission system
upgrades (ERCOT has a postage-stamp transmission
rate, paid by load)
Wind resources in Texas are world-class: over 30 GW
of wind generation potential with greater than 40% net
capacity factor and over 100 GW of wind generation
potential with greater than 35% net capacity factor
ERCOT contains three of the ten largest cities in the
United States (Houston [4], San Antonio [7] and Dallas
[9]; Austin and Fort Worth are in the top 20)
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
So How Much Wind Generation is in ERCOT?
2

(as of May 31, 2009)

8
,
1
3
5
8
,
1
3
5
1385
2875
116
116
1173
977 816
1854
4,785
8,005
8
,
1
3
5
8
,
1
3
5
2
,
5
0
1
1
,
9
5
0
1
,
2
8
3
7
8
1
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
MW
Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)
Cumulative MW Installed
8,916
9,418
10,085
10,63
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
0.00
10000.00
20000.00
30000.00
40000.00
50000.00
60000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
The Primary Challenge Wind Integration
Coal
Nuc l ear
Combi ned-Cyc l e Gas Tur bi nes
Si mpl e-c yc l e
gas t ur bi nes
Nat ur al Gas
St eam Uni t s
Wi nd
DC Ti e
Generation from private
networks not included
ERCOTs Peak Day (8/17/06) by Fuel Type
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Operations Must Maintain System Frequency
Coal

-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
6/9/07 9:00 6/9/07 9:30 6/9/07 10:00 6/9/07 10:30 6/9/07 11:00 6/9/07 11:30 6/9/07 12:00 6/9/07 12:30 6/9/07 13:00
R
e
g
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

(
M
W
)
59.904
59.922
59.94
59.958
59.976
59.994
60.012
60.03
60.048
60.066
60.084
60.102
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

(
H
z
)
Regulation Frequency
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Example Operations Report
Coal
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee
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Net-Load Calculation An Operators Viewpoint
Typical Spring Day (April 23)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00
Hour of Day
L
o
a
d
,

W
i
n
d
,

a
n
d

N
e
t

L
o
a
d

(
M
W
)
Load
Wind
Load-Wind
Similar to load,
operator cant
control wind
generation
output
Net load
predictability is
key to reliable
operations
Additional large
increases in
wind generation
will change the
typical load
shape
15,000 MW of
nameplate wind
Minimum load: 26,100 MW
Minimum net load: 15,700 MW
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Wind Generation Alters Net Load Shape
Load-15,000 MW Wind - April Time Series Plot
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1
-
A
p
r
8
-
A
p
r
1
5
-
A
p
r
2
2
-
A
p
r
2
9
-
A
p
r
Day
M
W
Wind
Load
Net Load
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
ERCOT Generation December 26, 2008
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0
:
1
5
1
:
1
5
2
:
1
5
3
:
1
5
4
:
1
5
5
:
1
5
6
:
1
5
7
:
1
5
8
:
1
5
9
:
1
5
1
0
:
1
5
1
1
:
1
5
1
2
:
1
5
1
3
:
1
5
1
4
:
1
5
1
5
:
1
5
1
6
:
1
5
1
7
:
1
5
1
8
:
1
5
1
9
:
1
5
2
0
:
1
5
2
1
:
1
5
2
2
:
1
5
2
3
:
1
5
M
W
Other Hydro Wnd Gas_Turbine Gas_CombCycle Coal Nuclear
~$12/MWh
~$20/MWh
~$40/MWh
~$60/MWh
~$0/MWh
Prices shown are
variable costs by
generation type
Over 92,000 MWh of wind generation
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Components of State-of-the-Art Wind Forecast Systems
Combination of
physics-based (NWP)
and statistical models
Diverse set of input
data with widely
varying characteristics
Importance of specific
models and data types
vary with look-ahead
period
Forecast providers
vary significantly in
how they use forecast
models and input data
Input Data, Forecast Model Components and Data Flow
for a State-of-the-Art Forecast System
J une 30, 2009
Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Wind Generation Forecasting is Complex
Two primary
sources of
uncertainty
Position on power curve
Predictability of weather
regime
Useful to
distinguish between
sources
Estimate weather-related
uncertainty from spread
of forecast ensemble
Estimate power curve
position uncertainty by
developing statistics over
all weather regimes
A real facility-scale power curve
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Example 48-Hour ERCOT Wind Generation Forecast
Red line
represents
expected
wind
generation
Green line
represents
80%
confidence
forecast
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Wind Persistence
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Wind Generation is Intermittent
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Ancillary Services Requirements
As wind capacity increases, ancillary service
requirements increase in order to maintain
reliability
Ancillary Services include:
Regulation Service (Frequency Control)
Non-Spin Service (Off-line Quick Start Units)
Replacement Reserve Service (Off-line)
Responsive Reserve Service (On-line
resources for emergency replacement of
energy)
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Annual Thermal Generation Impacts
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Annual Emissions Impacts
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
The Future of Market Adaptation
Other Renewable Sources
Nodal Market
Smart Meters Load Response
Distributed Generation
Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Additional Resources
Utility Wind Integration Group maintains a
library of integration studies
http://www.uwig.org/opimpactsdocs.html
Over 20 different studies conducted by
operating regions throughout the United
States, Canada, and Europe. Also contains
several summary documents and the
recently completed NERC Integration of
Variable Generation Task Force Report.
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Integrating Wind Energy in ERCOT
Questions?
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Additional
Background
Materials
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Wind Resources in Texas
Map shows areas of wind
potential in Texas,
ranked from 1 (strongest)
to 25 (weakest)
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Where is the Wind Generation in ERCOT?
2
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory
Committee
J une 30, 2009
Competitive Renewable Energy Zones
Zone
New Wind
Capacity
(MW)
Panhandle A 3,200
Panhandle B 2,400
Central 3,000
Central West 1,100
McCamey 1,900
Following statute, PUCT has designated CREZs
in Texas and ordered 2,376 circuit miles of new
345-kV transmission
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Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee J une 30, 2009
Cost of New Gener at i on