Current

research on
impacts of
climate
li t
change on
c op
crop
production Attachai Jintrawet
systems in Multiple Cropping Center, Faculty of Agriculture,
Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Thailand April 6,
6 2009
@Universitii Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Salangor,
Malaysia
 Topics

• Observed changes in Thailand

• Crop production scenarios
• TRF’s funded research projects on CC
• Preliminary Results
Observed changes in
short history in
Thailand
Number of tropical
p storms in Thailand
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Data source: http://www.tmd.go.th/

Historical rice yyield ((T/ha)
/ )
5.0

CM = 1.6 Million

25
2.5
Thailand

KK = 1.8 Million

๐
1974 84 94 00
In 2006-2007, rice crops in Thailand alone
OAE, 1975-2001 required 299,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizer.
 World Rice Market: Exporters
World Rice Market: Exporters
Net
Exporter 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Thailand 7,274 7,374 9,495 8,031 9,907 10,213 10,074

Vietnam 4,854 4,355 4,150 4,865 4,536 4,707 4,828

India
d 4,569 4,682 4,200 3,375 4,320 3,562 4,303

Pakistan 2,801 3,664 2,600 2,905 2,896 3,020 3,032

USA 3,077 3,116 2,289 2,829 2,403 1,959 2,390

Others 2,396 3,046 2,810 2,369 3,208 3,322 3,232

Total 24,971 26,237 25,544 24,374 27,270 26,783 27,859

Source:
Thai Chamber of Commerce, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Lehman Brothers
 World Rice Market: Importers
World Rice Market: Importers
Net
importers 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Nigeria 1,369 1,777 1,600 1,703 1,670 1,750 1,827

Philippines 1,500 1,622 1,800 1,635 1,845 1,708 1,913

Bangladesh 725 514 769 986 1,253 1,138 1,114

Indonesia 450 539 1,900 1,342 1,784 1,437 1,684

y
Malaysia 417 373 414
Saudi
Arabia 1,440 1,297 1,398 1,114 1,257 1,291 1,336

Others 19,487 20,071 17,704 17,180 19,461 19,459 19,985

Total 24,971 26,237 25,544 24,374 27,270 26,783 27,859

Source:
Thai Chamber of Commerce, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Lehman Brothers
 Thailand's Estimated Anthropogenic Methane
E i i
Emissions by
b Source,
S 2005

Total = 91.62
91 62 MMT CO2E
http://www.methanetomarkets.org/partners/country/thailand.htm
Concerns of agricultural production systems

• Agricultural progress has been rather

uneven as it addresses short-term
production problems and goals
• Not long-term
long term ecological and economic
sustainability

Need for Safe &

Sustainable Agricultural
Production Systems
 Scenario-based &
System approaches
 Agricultural
g systems
y scenarios

High Productivity

Business-As-Usual Fuel crops

Rainfed
Irrigated
g

Integrated farming Food bowl

Food-bowl

Low Productivity
TRF s funded research
TRF’s
projects (2007
(2007-2008)
2008)
 Funding schemes
Group 1 Long term changes (4)
Long-term

Group 2 Short
Short-term
term changes (5)

Group 3 Impacts of CC and options for

adaptation (3)

Group 4 Basic research (4)

Theme 3: CropDSS as
an assessment tool
A studyy tool
Simulation Studies on Sugarcane 
g
Production Systems
Location and Teams for sugarcane

KKU
S. Laohasiriwong
B.Siri
E Kengnok
E.Kengnok
CMU
A.Jintrawet
S Jongkaewwatana
S.Jongkaewwatana
T.Onpraphai
A.Chanmuang
P.Nasuriwong
S.Promrit

SuPhan
C.Lairungreng
N.Aemsuphasit
P.Pramanee
P Limruengrengrat
P.Limruengrengrat
 Comparison of main stem leaf interval

50
40 CMU (19 oN) date 1
30
20
10
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260

30
CMU (19 oN) date 2
20
10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Simulation studies of Cassava 
production systems
 i ld (ton/ha)
F h yield
Fresh t h Fresh
F h roott yields
i ld from
f
468 the model and farmer field

* Planting time
312
* Spacing
S i
YIELD GAP
* Fertilizer appl.
156 * Harvesting
H ti time
ti

0
RY 90 KU 50 RY 90 KU 50
Potential
ศักยภาพ ทดลอง Actual
เกษตรกร

(Sarawet, 2004; & Ratanasriwong, 2001)

Production Map using Database of Production Potential
and Appropriate Technology
Simulation studies of Rice 
production systems
CERES-Rice model test:
number of days to heading & maturity H KL85
380 H KL86
360 H SP85
H PM85
320 H SR85
Simulatted

H SR86
280 M KL85
M KL86
240 M SP85
M PM85
200 M SP85
200 240 280 320 360 380
Observed M SP86
CERES-Rice model testing
number of rice seeds m-2 (x 1,000)
25

20 KL85
KL86
Simulatted

SP85
10 PM85
SR85
SR86
0
0 10 20 25
Observed
CERES-Rice model testing
1,000 30seeds wt. (g)

KL85

20 KL86
Simulatted

SP85
PM85
10
SR85

SR86

0
0 10 20 30
Observed
CERES-Rice model testing
Grain yield (Mg ha-1)
8
KL85
6 KL86
SP85
Simulatted

4
PM85
2 SR85
SR86
0
0 2 4 6 8

Observed
CERES-Rice model testing:
NSPT photoperiod-sensitive rice variety

Days from Sowing to Heading

190
Observed
140

90 Simulated
40
1 M J J A S O N D
Sowing date (Julian)
CERES-Rice model testing
number of days to heading & maturity
170
1995 exp.
160 at WatChan
Royal Project
Simulatted

140

120 Lisu

NamRoo
100
00
100 120 140 160 170
Observed
CERES-Rice model test: Simulation of historical
rice production

Total rice production (Million Tonnes) in KK

2.0
Simulated
Si l t d w// 4 Mg/ha
M /h
OM addition

Simulated w/ 2 Mg/ha
OM addition

1.0 Simulated w/o

OM addition
dditi
Actual total
production

0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Time
 Preliminary
y Results
of Simulation Studies on
impact of CC on Crop
d i
Production S
Systems
 Simulation Settings
g for Rice
Time frame: 1980-1989 | 2010-2039 | 2070-2099
ECHAM 4; 4 A2 SRES emission
i i scenario
i
Production options:
P
Potential,
i l
Water-limited,
Nit
Nitrogen-limited
li it d production
d ti systems
t
Rice variety:
RD 7,7 non-glutinous
l ti rice
i
Planting dates:
15 January
J (Dry
(D season))
15 August (Main season)
A
Agronomic i practices:
ti
16 hills/sq.m, 3 seedlings/hill, 5 cm planting depth
 Simulated number of Daysy to Maturityy
RD 7 rice variety

120.00 120.00
115.00 115.00
110.00 110.00
105 00
105.00 POT 105 00
105.00 POT
100.00 H2O 100.00 H2O

95.00 N 95.00 N

90.00 90.00
85.00 85.00
80.00 80.00

1980 2010 2070 1980 2010 2070

1 2 3 1 2 3

August planting date January planting date

January planting, Potential production (kg/ha)

1980-89 2010-19 2040-49

January planting, Water‐limited production (kg/ha)

1980-89 2010-19 2040-49

January planting, Nitrogen‐limited production (kg/ha)

1980-89 2010-19 2040-49

August planting, Potential production (kg/ha)

1980-89 2010-19 2040-49

August planting, Water‐limited production (kg/ha)

1980-89 2010-19 2040-49

August planting, Nitrogen‐limited production (kg/ha)

1980-89 2010-19 2040-49

 Locations
Chiang Rai

Sakon Nakhon

Khon Kaen Savannakhet

Tung Kula Rongkai

Sa Keaw
CAPaBLE Studies in Laos PDR & Thailand

1.0xCO2 1.5xCO2 2.0xCO2

Thavone (Rice)
• Suwannaket

Vichien (Rice)
• Onset of rains, dry spills Similar rice yields for dry,
• Salt and sand median and wet years

Chit
Chitnucha
h (Rice)
(Ri )
• Chiang Rai (CR)
• Sakonnakorn (SK)
• Sa Kaew (SW)

Vi i (Cassava)
Vinai (C )
• Khon Kaen

Sukit (Sugarcane)
( g )
• Khon Kaen

Sahaschai (Maize)
• Khon
Kh Kaen
K
As education
and training
l
tools
 DSSAT workshops at CMU
DSSAT 3.5
1994: 35 Thai participants
1995: 31 Thai participants
1996: 28 Thai participants

DSSAT4.0
DSSAT4 0
2003: 3 Bhutan, 1 Cambodian, 1 Laos, 2 S_Korean, 14 Thai,
3 Vietnam participants
2004: 9 Pakistan, 5 Bangladesh, 5 Nepal participants
2007: 2 Cambodian,
Cambodian 1 China,
China 1 Germany,
Germany 1 Indonesia,
Indonesia 1
Ireland, 3 Laos, 2 Malaysia, 1 Myanmar, 12 Thai, 4
Vietnam participants
http://mccweb.agri.cmu.ac.th/ and http://www.icasa.net
 DSSAT Workshops at CMU
DSSAT4.0 2003
3 Bhutan,
1 Cambodian,
1 Laos,
2 S_Korean,
14 Thai,,
3 Vietnam

DSSAT4.0
DSSAT4 0 2004
9 Pakistan
5 Bangladesh
5 Nepal

http://mccweb.agri.cmu.ac.th/ and http://www.icasa.net

 DSSAT Workshops at CMU
DSSAT4.0 2007

2 Cambodia,
1 China
1 Germany,
1 Indonesia
I d i
1 Ireland
3 Lao,
2 Malaysia
1 Myanmar
12 Thai,
4 Vietnam

http://www.mcc.cmu.ac.th/Events/DSSAT4_Nov2007/Participant.html
Summary
Take home …
ƒ Applications of DSSAT on rice, sugarcane,
cassava production systems in Thailand
ƒ Modeling is a way to put people together

ƒ Challenges ahead ...

ƒ Warning systems
ƒ Needd teams off people,
l interdisciplinary
d l
ƒ Start small and simple
p cases.
ƒ People-centered, avoid IT-centered, enhance
communication.
ƒ CC is a new operating environment for all.
 Acknowledgments
g
UKM (Universitii Kebangsaan Malaysia)

TRF (Thailand Research Fund) for supporting initial crop modeling works in Thailand,
i.e., CERES-rice, DSSAT-CANEGRO sugarcane, CERES-maize, and DSSAT-
GUMCAS cassava models.

APN (Asia Pacific Network) for supporting of the CAPaBLE Project (CRP2007-03CMY-
Jintrawet) Climate Change in Southeast Asia and Assessment on Impact,
Vulnerability and Adaptation on Rice Production and Water Resource

AIACC, through Southeast START Regional Center, for financial support to develop
MRB-Rice shell, which allow the dynamic link between the CERES-rice model
and spatial databases of six countries in Mekong River basin.
Terima kasih banyak Thank you for your kind attention