The Washington Economics Group, Inc.

August 19, 2014 Page 1

MIAMI-DADE ECONOMY EXPANDING STRONGLY IN LATE SUMMER OF 2014
Summer Issue-2014


The Miami-Dade Economy (MDE) is performing above Florida and National
averages, led by solid growth of key industries and a revival in construction activity.
Indeed, the whole South Florida marketplace, including Ft. Lauderdale and West
Palm Beach metro areas, is leading the State in employment growth and overall
economic activity.
The table below highlights payroll employment growth in the MDE through July,
rank-ordered by growth rates over the 12 months ending in July 2014.
Miami-Dades Payroll Employment Growth Leading the State
(July 2014/July 2013)
Sector
Over-the-Year Change
Level Percent
1. Construction +2,300 6.9%
2. Health Services
+2,600 5.8%
3. Manufacturing +2,100 5.8%
4. Transportation/Wholesale Trade +3,500 5.5%
5. Financial Activities +3,900 5.4%
6. Retail Trade +7,200 5.3%
7. Leisure/Hospitality +5,900 4.8%
8. Professional and Business Services +4,400 3.0%
Sources: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) and The Beacon Council.

As the data above demonstrates, most of the key industries of the MDE are enjoying
employment expansion. In essence, the MDE economic recovery is on a sound
footing. We expect this positive trend to continue for the remainder of 2014, given
the widespread momentum of employment growth in top industries of the
MDE. This, in turn, translates into greater consumer and investment spending
throughout the economy.

Looking beyond the next several months, there are a number of possible risks to the
strong growth of economic activity. These potential downside risks should be
considered in business plans for 2015. Among recent developments are the
following:

The Washington Economics Group, Inc. August 19, 2014 Page 2
The Federal Reserve is expected to begin slowly increasing short-term interest
rates in early 2015. Indeed, Quantitative Easing #3 (QE3) is expected to end in
October of this year.
Global economic activity, a key external driver of the MDE, has started to
slowdown in mid-2014. The European Union economic recovery has stalled,
while geo-political risks of an aggressive Russia have increased uncertainty.
Finally, a few key markets of the MDE in Latin America are also registering
slower growth this year, with little prospects for a strong pickup in economic
activity during 2015. This is highlighted in the table below:
Key Trade Partners of MDE Experiencing Slower Economic Conditions
Country
GDP Growth
2014
Comments - 2015
Brazil 1.4% Modest pickup
Argentina FLAT Recession likely
Chile 3.0% Modest pick up
Peru 4.8% Modest pick up
Venezuela -0.5% Deep Recession
Source: UN ECLAC and Comments-2015 by The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (WEG)

There are, however, bright spots in the economic landscape of Latin America and
the Caribbean, with strong growth prospects for 2015. Among these are Colombia,
Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico and the Dominican Republic.
In conclusion, the business environment in the MDE has improved in the first half of
the year. There is positive momentum for continued strong economic expansion in
the second half of 2014, led by the construction, travel and hospitality, business
services and retail trade industries, among others.


By:
The Washington Economics Group, Inc.
Summer Issue - 2014