PWC - Filmed Entertainment 2012 - 2016

Filmed entertainment
Summary 294
North America 297
Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 307
Asia Pacifc 324
Latin America 337
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294 PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 20122016
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Market size and
growth by region
We project flmed entertainment spending
in North America, EMEA (Europe, Middle
East, Africa), Asia Pacifc, and Latin America
will rise at a 3.1 percent compound annual
rate, reaching $99.7 billion in 2016 from
$85.4 billion in 2011. Latin America will be
the fastest-growing region, increasing by
6.4 percent compounded annually to
$4.9 billion in 2016 compared with
$3.6 billion in 2011. Asia Pacifc will grow
nearly as fast, with a projected 6.3 percent
increase compounded annually from
$22 billion in 2011 to $29.9 billion in 2016.
Asia Pacifc will overtake EMEA in 2016 to
become the second-largest region. North
America will be the slowest-growing region,
with a 0.9 percent compound annual
increase to $35.3 billion in 2016 from
$33.9 billion in 2011. Spending in EMEA
will increase at a 2.6 percent compound
annual rate from $26 billion in 2011 to
$29.5 billion in 2016.
Market size and
growth by component
Global box offce spending will increase
from $34.6 billion in 2011 to $47 billion
in 2016, a 6.3 percent compound annual
increase. Cinema advertising will grow at a
projected 5.3 percent compound annual rate
to $2.8 billion in 2016 from $2.2 billion in
2011. Total out-of-home spending will rise
from $36.7 billion in 2011 to $49.8 billion
in 2016. Physical sell-through will fall at a
3.4 percent compound annual rate to
$23 billion in 2016 from $27.3 billion in
2011. Physical rental spending will decline
from $12.1 billion in 2011 to $8.9 billion
in 2016, a 6.0 percent compound annual
decrease. The overall physical home video
market will total $31.8 billion in 2016,
down 4.2 percent on a compound annual
basis from $39.4 billion in 2011. Electronic
spending through TV subscription providers
will increase at a 6.8 percent compound
annual rate to $7 billion in 2016 from
$5 billion in 2011. Over-the-top/streaming
spending will rise at a 21.0 percent
compound annual rate from $4.3 billion
in 2011 to $11 billion in 2016, overtaking
spending through TV subscription providers
in 2012. The total electronic home video
market will reach $18 billion in 2016 from
$9.3 billion in 2011, a 14.2 percent increase
compounded annually. Overall home video
spending will increase at a projected
0.5 percent compound annual rate to
$49.9 billion from $48.7 billion in 2011.
Filmed entertainment
The flmed entertainment market consists of out-of-home and in-home
components. Out-of-home includes consumer spending at the box offce
for theatrical motion pictures and cinema advertising, which consists
of on-screen ads prior to the movie. In-home consists of physical home
video and electronic home video of flms, TV programming, and other
content. Physical includes spending on rentals of videos at video stores
and other retail outlets along with DVD-by-mail services (the physical
rental market) and the purchase of physical home video products
(the physical sell-through market). Electronic home video consists of
spending on video-on-demand (VOD) and pay-per-view through TV
subscription providers. It also includes over-the-top/streaming services
whose flmed entertainment content is accessed via a broadband or
wireless Internet connection and can be viewed on a PC, a TV, a tablet,
or any other device and which bypasses TV subscription providers. The
fgures do not include music videos (which are counted in the Music
chapter). It also does not include movies or other content licensed to pay
TV or other television content providers. Concession sales of beverages
and refreshments in theaters are not included.
Summary
Filmed entertainment | Summary 295
Principal drivers
Moderating price growth, new multiplexes,
and growth in 3-D screens will stimulate the
box offce market, although the incremental
impact of 3-D is diminishing. Favorable
demographics and an expanding box offce
market will boost cinema advertisingas
will the migration to digital cinemaby
reducing the costs and complexity of
screening advertisements. A shortening
home video window and experiments in
modifcation of the current windowing
structure (e.g., premium VOD and
day-and-date digital releases) will beneft
electronic video. Competition from
electronic platforms will adversely affect
the physical home video market, leading to
spending declines in most countries. Growth
in the Blu-ray platform will limit declines
in physical home video during the latter
part of the forecast period. Nevertheless,
the Blu-ray market is growing more slowly
than we anticipated in last years Outlook,
leading us to project ongoing decreases
for physical sell-through. Emerging over-
the-top/streaming services and growth in
digital cable and telephone company TV
subscription services that promote video-on-
demand will boost electronic distribution.
The availability of content on tablets and
other devices as well as Internet-connected
TVs will foster growth in electronic
distribution. Piracy will continue to hold
down spending, particularly in Asia Pacifc
and Latin America as well as a number of
countries in EMEA. Major factors affecting
the market in any given year are the quality
of releases and their appeal to consumers, a
development we cannot predict.
Global lmed entertainment market by region (US$ millions)
Region 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
North America 35,159 34,643 35,034 34,440 33,850 34,304 34,752 35,058 35,296 35,345
% Change 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.9
EMEA 25,471 25,220 25,435 26,025 25,995 26,154 26,689 27,502 28,485 29,543
% Change 0.7 1.0 0.9 2.3 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.0 3.6 3.7 2.6
Asia Pacic 19,046 19,481 19,964 21,101 21,991 23,564 25,152 26,699 28,287 29,870
% Change 5.3 2.3 2.5 5.7 4.2 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.6 6.3
Latin America 2,582 2,675 2,926 3,331 3,597 3,855 4,131 4,392 4,646 4,899
% Change 4.0 3.6 9.4 13.8 8.0 7.2 7.2 6.3 5.8 5.4 6.4
Total 82,258 82,019 83,359 84,897 85,433 87,877 90,724 93,651 96,714 99,657
% Change 2.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.1
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Global lmed entertainment market by component (US$ millions)
Component 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Out-of-home
Box ofce 28,110 29,014 32,129 33,878 34,580 36,762 39,190 41,648 44,259 46,964
% Change 3.9 3.2 10.7 5.4 2.1 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.3
Cinema advertising 1,932 1,911 1,860 2,052 2,160 2,258 2,380 2,509 2,651 2,799
% Change 9.8 1.1 2.7 10.3 5.3 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.3
Total out-of-home 30,042 30,925 33,989 35,930 36,740 39,020 41,570 44,157 46,910 49,763
% Change 4.2 2.9 9.9 5.7 2.3 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.3
Physical home video
Sell-through 33,918 32,601 30,446 29,291 27,283 25,952 24,953 24,173 23,533 22,970
% Change 0.3 3.9 6.6 3.8 6.9 4.9 3.8 3.1 2.6 2.4 3.4
Rental 14,766 13,993 13,713 13,296 12,116 11,722 11,242 10,595 9,804 8,877
% Change 3.1 5.2 2.0 3.0 8.9 3.3 4.1 5.8 7.5 9.5 6.0
Total physical
home video 48,684 46,594 44,159 42,587 39,399 37,674 36,195 34,768 33,337 31,847
% Change 0.8 4.3 5.2 3.6 7.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.2
Electronic home video
Through TV
subscription providers 3,156 3,790 4,028 4,594 5,034 5,470 5,884 6,286 6,659 7,007
% Change 19.9 20.1 6.3 14.1 9.6 8.7 7.6 6.8 5.9 5.2 6.8
Over-the-top/streaming 376 710 1,183 1,786 4,260 5,713 7,075 8,440 9,808 11,040
% Change 272.3 88.8 66.6 51.0 138.5 34.1 23.8 19.3 16.2 12.6 21.0
Total electronic
home video 3,532 4,500 5,211 6,380 9,294 11,183 12,959 14,726 16,467 18,047
% Change 29.2 27.4 15.8 22.4 45.7 20.3 15.9 13.6 11.8 9.6 14.2
Total home video 52,216 51,094 49,370 48,967 48,693 48,857 49,154 49,494 49,804 49,894
% Change 0.8 2.1 3.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.5
Total 82,258 82,019 83,359 84,897 85,433 87,877 90,724 93,651 96,714 99,657
% Change 2.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.1
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Filmed entertainment | North America 297
The outlook in brief
Moderating price growth will support a rebound in
box offce admissions.
Engaged audiences will boost the appeal of
cinema advertising.
The shift to electronic distribution will lead to ongoing
declines in the physical market.
New and enhanced digital streaming and download
services will drive electronic spending on flmed
entertainment.
Overview
The overall flmed entertainment market will begin to turn
around in 2012 after declining during the past two years.
Spending for the forecast period will increase at a
0.9 percent compound annual rate from $33.9 billion
in 2011 to $35.3 billion in 2016.
Box offce growth will average 3.7 percent compounded
annually from $11.2 billion in 2011 to $13.4 billion
in 2016.
Cinema advertising will total $840 million in 2016
from $675 million in 2011, a 4.5 percent increase
compounded annually.
The overall out-of-home component of the market will
reach $14.2 billion in 2016 from $11.9 billion in 2011,
a 3.7 percent increase compounded annually.
Physical sell-through will fall at a 7.9 percent compound
annual rate to $7 billion in 2016 from $10.6 billion
in 2011.
Physical rental spending will decline at a 9.5 percent
compound annual rate from $5.2 billion in 2011 to
The overall physical market will total an estimated
$10.2 billion in 2016, an 8.4 percent decrease
compounded annually from $15.8 billion in 2011.
Electronic spending through TV subscription providers
will expand at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate to
$3.6 billion in 2016 from $3 billion in 2011.
Spending on over-the-top/streaming services will rise
from $3.1 billion in 2011 to $7.4 billion in 2016, an
18.6 percent compound annual increase.
Overall electronic spending on flmed entertainment
will increase at a 12.1 percent compound annual rate
to $10.9 billion in 2016 from $6.2 billion in 2011.
Declines in physical spending will continue to offset gains
in electronic spending during the next fve years. The
overall home video market will drop to $21.1 billion in
2016 from $22 billion in 2011, an 0.8 percent compound
annual decrease.
For this years Outlook we obtained new data on home
video spending in the United States, which led to a
revision of the historical series and a change in the
forecasts compared with last years Outlook. Traditionally,
there has been wide variation between sources, refecting
differences in what is and what is not included in each
category. This year we worked with Futuresource
Consulting, which spent time with studios and pay TV
providers in breaking down the data by category. This
years Outlook does not include adult content, which
was included in prior years editions of Outlook. Also,
as Netfix became primarily a streaming service in the
beginning of 2011, the revised fgures show a large
increase in digital distribution in 2011. In addition, with
cable facing subscriber erosion and with over-the-top
services proliferating, it is now expected that video-on-
demand through TV subscription providers will grow
much more slowly than previously expected.
North America
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Filmed entertainment market by component
(US$ millions)
North America

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Out-of-home
Box ofce 10,476 10,459 11,669 11,615 11,180 11,631 12,095 12,523 12,952 13,387
Cinema advertising 540 571 584 658 675 710 750 780 810 840
Total out-of-home 11,016 11,030 12,253 12,273 11,855 12,341 12,845 13,303 13,762 14,227
Physical home video
Sell-through 15,487 14,473 13,040 12,022 10,597 9,646 8,864 8,168 7,560 7,019
Rental 6,564 6,463 6,576 6,305 5,238 4,960 4,646 4,227 3,727 3,177
Total physical
home video 22,051 20,936 19,616 18,327 15,835 14,606 13,510 12,395 11,287 10,196
Through TV
subscription providers 1,801 2,175 2,413 2,784 3,025 3,230 3,390 3,496 3,555 3,558
Over-the-top/streaming 291 502 752 1,056 3,135 4,127 5,007 5,864 6,692 7,364
Total electronic
home video 2,092 2,677 3,165 3,840 6,160 7,357 8,397 9,360 10,247 10,922
Total home video 24,143 23,613 22,781 22,167 21,995 21,963 21,907 21,755 21,534 21,118
Total 35,159 34,643 35,034 34,440 33,850 34,304 34,752 35,058 35,296 35,345
At average 2011 exchange rates.
View year-on-year growth for every data line. Visit the online
Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook
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Filmed entertainment market growth by component (%)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Out-of-home
Box ofce 5.0 0.2 11.6 0.5 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.7
Cinema advertising 18.4 5.7 2.3 12.7 2.6 5.2 5.6 4.0 3.8 3.7 4.5
Total out-of-home 5.6 0.1 11.1 0.2 3.4 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.7
Physical home video
Sell-through 2.0 6.5 9.9 7.8 11.9 9.0 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.9
Rentals 4.9 1.5 1.7 4.1 16.9 5.3 6.3 9.0 11.8 14.8 9.5
Total physical
home video 2.9 5.1 6.3 6.6 13.6 7.8 7.5 8.3 8.9 9.7 8.4
Through TV
subscription providers 14.7 20.8 10.9 15.4 8.7 6.8 5.0 3.1 1.7 0.1 3.3
Over-the-top/streaming 482.0 72.5 49.8 40.4 196.9 31.6 21.3 17.1 14.1 10.0 18.6
Total electronic
home video 29.1 28.0 18.2 21.3 60.4 19.4 14.1 11.5 9.5 6.6 12.1
Total home video 0.7 2.2 3.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.8
Total 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.9
The United States will increase at a 0.6 percent compound
annual rate to $30.9 billion in 2016 from $30 billion
in 2011.
Canada will expand at a 2.5 percent compound annual
rate from $3.9 billion in 2011 to $4.4 billion in 2016.
Canadas physical sell-through market is holding up better
than that of the US, while somewhat faster price growth
will provide a larger lift for box offce spending.
Filmed entertainment market by country
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 31,311 30,894 31,246 30,574 29,953 30,342 30,692 30,890 31,005 30,933 0.6
Canada 3,848 3,749 3,788 3,866 3,897 3,962 4,060 4,168 4,291 4,412 2.5
Total 35,159 34,643 35,034 34,440 33,850 34,304 34,752 35,058 35,296 35,345 0.9
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Box offce
Box offce spending fell 3.7 percent in 2011the steepest
decline since 2005with admissions dropping to their
lowest levels since the mid-1990s. More 3-D flms were
released in 2011 than ever before, but their appeal
waned compared with the prior few years. In 2010, flms
generated more than 60 percent of their grosses on 3-D
flms, a fgure that dropped to around 45 percent in 2011.
The loss of the novelty effect of 3-D combined with higher
price points and the perception that the quality of the
flms themselves, apart from 3-D, had diminished likely
accounted for the drop in 3-D grosses. Consumers were
reluctant to pay the surcharge for a 3-D flm that was not
considered a must-see. Those trends mean exhibitors may
look to limit price growth for 3-D flms, which could lead
to a narrowing in the price differential over flms in 2-D.
Notwithstanding these developments, we are reluctant to
place too much emphasis on a single years performance,
because box offce results are affected by the appeal of
the roster of releases, which can vary widely from year to
year. We also note that in early 2012, box offce is up by
double digits over the comparable period in 2011.
A key development in our view is the moderation in aver-
age ticket prices. The average price rose only 0.5 percent
in 2011 following a 5.6 percent gain in 2010 and increases
in excess of 4 percent annually in prior years. Those hikes
were well in excess of the rate of infation.
The large increases in prior years fueled in large part
by 3-D surcharges but also refecting increases in the
base price made going to a movie more of a fnancial
consideration than in the past, and consumers became
more selective.
Faced with two consecutive years of admission declines, it
now appears that exhibitors are becoming less aggressive
with respect to pricing, and we believe that will have a
positive impact on admissions. By providing additional
incentives such as assigned seating, larger seats with
special services, and 4-D experiences, exhibitors are also
broadening their offer to differentiate themselves and
capture additional surcharges.
We expect another year of moderate gains in admission
prices in 2012 followed by somewhat larger gains in
subsequent years that will still be noticeably less than the
pattern during 200710.
The average movie admission in 2016 will cost $9.12, a
2.7 percent compound annual increase from $8.00 in
2011. In the United States, we project average ticket prices
to increase at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate to
$9.00 in 2016 from $7.93 in 2011. In Canada, we project
a 3.4 percent compound annual increase from $8.80 in
2011 to $10.42 in 2016.
While 3-D flms provided less of a lift for the market in
2011 than they did in 200910, they remain a draw.
The 3-D surcharge means that 3-D screens generate
more revenue than comparable 2-D admissions do, and
they provide a more-than-proportional boost to box
offce spending.
Historically, 3-D helped distinguish the theatrical experi-
ence from the home video and the online experience of
watching a movie, and it should have a positive impact on
admissions in the near term. Now 3D is also an option at
home, albeit currently one with low penetration.
Moderating price growth also will have a positive impact
on admissions compared with recent experience.
At the same time, with flms entering home video much
sooner than in the past, box offce is facing greater
competition than in the past. Some flms are now being
released digitally simultaneously with the theatrical
release, or before the home entertainment window opens.
On balance, we expect that the positive impacts of mod-
erating prices and 3-D will help neutralize the negative
impact of shorter release windows, leading to modest
growth in admissions from a depressed base in 2011.
We project admissions to rise by 1.0 percent compounded
annually in both countries. The United States will increase
to 1.35 billion in 2016 from 1.28 billion in 2011. Canada
will expand from 117 million in 2011 to 123 million
in 2016.
Total admissions in North America will increase to
1.47 billion in 2016 from 1.4 billion in 2011.
The projections do not take into account the appeal of
releases in any year, which can have a signifcant impact
on admissions separate from the underlying trends.
Box offce spending will expand at a projected 3.6 percent
compound annual rate in the United States to $12.1 billion
in 2016 from $10.2 billion in 2011.
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In Canada, growth will average 4.5 percent compounded
annually, refecting somewhat larger price increases,
which have been the pattern in recent years. Spending
will rise from $1 billion in 2011 to $1.3 billion in 2016.
The overall North American market will increase from
$11.2 billion in 2011 to $13.4 billion in 2016, a 3.7 percent
increase compounded annually.
Box ofce market
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 9,629 9,621 10,650 10,573 10,150 10,560 10,973 11,348 11,725 12,105 3.6
Canada 847 838 1,019 1,042 1,030 1,071 1,122 1,175 1,227 1,282 4.5
Total 10,476 10,459 11,669 11,615 11,180 11,631 12,095 12,523 12,952 13,387 3.7
Sources: Motion Picture Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Cinema advertising
Cinema advertising totaled $675 million in the United
States in 2011, up 2.6 percent from 2010. (We do not have
data for cinema advertising in Canada.)
Cinema advertising is appealing because the audience
is not distracted by electronic media and is focused on
the screen. Movies also allow for longer ads than the
30-second or 60-second ads seen on television.
The audience tends to be young, well educated, and more
affuent than the typical audience that is reached by
other media.
With most screens now digital, it is easier and less ex-
pensive for advertisers to distribute their ads digitally,
thereby enlarging the potential array of advertisers that
may participate.
We project cinema advertising to increase at a 4.5 percent
compound annual rate to $840 million in 2016 from
$675 million in 2011.
Cinema advertising market
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 540 571 584 658 675 710 750 780 810 840 4.5
Canada NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total 540 571 584 658 675 710 750 780 810 840 4.5
Sources: Cinema Advertising Council, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
For admissions data and average admission price data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook
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Total out-of-home
Total out-of-home spending on flmed entertainment will
increase to $14.2 billion in 2016 from $11.9 billion in
2011, a 3.7 percent compound annual increase.
The United States will rise at a 3.6 percent compound
annual rate from $10.8 billion in 2011 to $12.9 billion
in 2016, while Canada will total $1.3 billion in 2016
from $1 billion in 2011, a 4.5 percent increase com-
pounded annually.
For total out-of-home market data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook
Physical home video
Sell-through
The sell-through market has plunged in recent years,
with annual declines at double-digit or high-single-digit
rates in the United States and mid-single-digit declines
in Canada.
There are a number of factors leading to the decrease. The
appeal of owning a flm and building a flm library may be
less attractive to consumers in part because of a diffcult
economy, and in larger part because there are so many
other ways to access flms that are less expensive than
a purchase. Also, to date, consumers in the US have not
shown interest in building digital libraries.
Subscription streaming services such as Netfix offer
access to titles, generally at a fxed monthly cost that is
well below the cost of purchasing a single title.
The DVD, which is still the principal platform for sell-
through, is now an inferior product because a majority
of households have high-defnition television (HDTV)
sets and have become accustomed to watching shows
and movies in high defnition. DVD sales have fallen
precipitously during the past fve years.
A relatively small Blu-ray market is expanding. Blu-ray
players now cost less than $100, and the Blu-ray installed
baseincluding PlayStation 3 consolesincreased
by nearly 40 percent in 2011 to around 35 percent
of households.
We expect that by 2015, Blu-ray sales will overtake DVD
sales as the DVD platform ultimately disappears. Rising
Blu-ray sales will create a foor for physical sell-through.
Nevertheless, with distribution shifting to electronic
platforms, we expect the physical sell-through market to
continue to decline. Spending will drop to $5.5 billion in
2016 from $8.9 billion in 2011, a 9.2 percent compound
annual decrease.
In Canada, the sell-through market has held up better
than in the United States. Sell-through continued to grow
through 2007, and declines since then have been much
less severe than in the United States, possibly refecting
less competition from streaming services.
Nevertheless, the underlying shift from physical to
electronic distribution and the availability of lower-priced
alternatives also characterize the Canadian market, and
we expect declines in Canada to continue, albeit at slower
rates compared with those in the United States. Sell-
through spending in Canada will fall by a projected
2.1 percent compounded annually to $1.5 billion in 2016
from $1.7 billion in 2011.
Sell-through spending in North America as a whole will
decline at a 7.9 percent compound annual rate from
$10.6 billion in 2011 to $7 billion in 2016.
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Physical sell-through market
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 13,490 12,551 11,220 10,232 8,878 8,003 7,271 6,611 6,013 5,477 9.2
Canada 1,997 1,922 1,820 1,790 1,719 1,643 1,593 1,557 1,547 1,542 2.1
Total 15,487 14,473 13,040 12,022 10,597 9,646 8,864 8,168 7,560 7,019 7.9
Sources: Futuresource Consulting, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Rental
In contrast with the sell-through market, the physical
rental market held up much better in the United States
than in Canada through 2010, although in 2011, rental
spending plunged 17.4 percent in the United States and
11.0 percent in Canada.
The US market benefted from DVD-by-mail rentals as well
as a surging kiosk market that offers rentals at much lower
costs than video stores do. In 2011, as Netfix transitioned
its service to streaming, physical rentals recorded a steep
decline. In Canada, kiosks and online subscription rentals
had been less of a presence.
Because streaming is far more cost-effective, we expect
that DVD-by-mail service will ultimately disappear,
meaning that overall rental declines will accelerate in the
United States during the latter part of the forecast period.
The traditional video store market also is disappearing, hurt
by competition from kiosks and online services. We expect
that kiosk rentals in the United States will account for the
majority of physical rentals by 2013. In addition to changes
within the physical rental market, physical rentals in
general face competition from electronic platforms that are
proliferating, which will have an ongoing adverse impact.
For the forecast period as a whole, we project physical
rental spending in the United States to decline at a
9.5 percent compound annual rate to $2.9 billion in
2016 from $4.8 billion in 2011.
In Canada, kiosks are less of a presence and therefore will
have less of an impact on sustaining rental growth, and
emerging, streaming services will cut into the physical
market. Rental spending will fall to $238 million in 2016
from $405 million in 2011, a 10.1 percent compound
annual decrease.
The overall rental market in North America will decline
by 9.5 percent compounded annually from $5.2 billion
in 2011 to $3.2 billion in 2016.

Physical rental market
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 5,780 5,780 6,020 5,850 4,833 4,596 4,317 3,929 3,459 2,939 9.5
Canada 784 683 556 455 405 364 329 298 268 238 10.1
Total 6,564 6,463 6,576 6,305 5,238 4,960 4,646 4,227 3,727 3,177 9.5
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Total physical home video
Total spending on physical home video will decline at an
8.4 percent compound annual rate to $10.2 billion in 2016
The United States will fall from $13.7 billion in 2011 to
$8.4 billion in 2016, a 9.3 percent decrease compound
annually. Canada will decrease at a 3.5 percent compound
annual rate to $1.8 billion in 2016 from $2.1 billion
in 2011.
Total physical home video market
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 19,270 18,331 17,240 16,082 13,711 12,599 11,588 10,540 9,472 8,416 9.3
Canada 2,781 2,605 2,376 2,245 2,124 2,007 1,922 1,855 1,815 1,780 3.5
Total 22,051 20,936 19,616 18,327 15,835 14,606 13,510 12,395 11,287 10,196 8.4
Electronic distribution
Through TV subscription providers
TV viewers can access flms on a video-on-demand or pay-
per-view basis through their TV subscription providers.
Films are typically available through these platforms prior
to their releases to premium cable networks. Payments are
incremental to basic or premium subscriptions.
Video-on-demand has become a signifcant marketing
force for TV subscription providers. Telephone companies
promote their VOD offerings to compete for subscribers,
and cable operators are using VOD as part of the
inducement to trade up to digital tiers.
Growth in digital cable and telephone company sub-
scriptions has expanded the market for flms through TV
subscription providers. Spending in Canada has grown
at double-digit rates during the past fve years. The US
has averaged double digits as well, although growth
slowed to 7.4 percent in 2011, refecting the drop in
cable subscriptions.
The market benefts from ease in viewing and paying and
from the availability of recent releases.
There is also signifcant competition in the home from free
VOD because TV subscription providers offer access to
recently aired network and cable programs on a free basis
to digital subscribers. While VOD provides an incremental
revenue stream for TV subscription providers, it is
increasingly being offered on a free basis to attract and
retain subscribers.
While the market for paid VOD will continue to grow
as digital cable and telephone company subscribership
expands, we expect more-modest increases as viewers
opt for the growing array of free alternatives and as
subscription penetration approaches saturation. By 2016,
spending in the United States is projected to decline.
The United States will increase from $2.6 billion in 2011
to $2.9 billion in 2016, a 2.3 percent compound annual
advance. Canada will average 8.7 percent compounded
annually to $667 million in 2016 from $440 million
in 2011.
Total spending will rise from $3 billion in 2011 to $3.6 bil-
lion in 2016, a 3.3 percent compound annual increase.
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Electronic market through TV subscription providers
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 1,601 1,920 2,116 2,407 2,585 2,740 2,854 2,914 2,928 2,891 2.3
Canada 200 255 297 377 440 490 536 582 627 667 8.7
Total 1,801 2,175 2,413 2,784 3,025 3,230 3,390 3,496 3,555 3,558 3.3
Over-the-top/streaming
The most dynamic component of the market consists of
over-the-top/streaming services that deliver programming
via the Internet, bypassing TV subscription providers.
Netfix, with more than 20 million subscribers in the
United States and 1 million in Canada, is a major player.
Netfix in recent years has spent aggressively for content,
which created pressure to raise costs. Netfix in 2011
announced it was going to separate its online subscrip-
tion service from its streaming service and then charge
separately for each, in effect raising the price by
60 percent for those subscribers who wanted both
services. That led to a loss in subscribers, and Netfix
subsequently backtracked on separating the two services.
Netfix previously entered Canada as a steaming-only
service. Cineplex Entertainment also has a streaming
service in Canada.
The market for streaming services is heating up. Netfix
is now largely a streaming service in the United States.
Amazon launched its Instant Video service in 2011 and
in early 2012 teamed up with Viacom to stream movies
and TV shows from Viacoms cable networks. Verizon and
Redbox formed a joint venture to offer streaming video.
Hulu Plus, a subscription version of its free Hulu service,
was launched, acquiring 1.5 million subscribers in its frst
year. Comcast in 2012 launched Xfnity Streampix, an
Internet streaming service. UltraViolet, a digital locker
service, began commercial operations in the last quarter
of 2011 with limited titles. To date, uptake of digital locker
services has been relatively slow.
Following the lead of premium channels, Netfix and Hulu
Plus are introducing original TV series as a way to make
their services unique and compelling. The frst entries are
Lilyhammer from Netfix and Battleground from Hulu Plus.
Smart TVs that have Internet connections are enabling
this market. Content from Netfix, Hulu Plus, and others
can be accessed directly on a TV set, which is a much more
appealing platform for viewing. Blockbuster Movie Pass is
available on the Dish satellite network.
The emergence of tablets will further drive the electronic
market because tablets provide a good viewing platform
for content.
We expect these developments to propel the over-the-top/
streaming market during the next fve years. We project
the US market to grow at an 18.7 percent compound
annual rate to $6.7 billion in 2016 from $2.8 billion in
2011. Canada will more than double from $303 million
in 2011 to $683 million in 2016, averaging 17.7 percent
growth compounded annually.
The overall over-the-top/streaming market in North
America will total $7.4 billion in 2016, an 18.6 percent
compound annual increase from $3.1 billion in 2011.
Download a PDF version of each segment. Visit the online Outlook
at www.pwc.com/outlook
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Over-the-top/streaming market
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 271 451 656 854 2,832 3,733 4,527 5,308 6,070 6,681 18.7
Canada 20 51 96 202 303 394 480 556 622 683 17.7
Total 291 502 752 1,056 3,135 4,127 5,007 5,864 6,692 7,364 18.6
Total electronic home video
Total spending on electronic home video will increase
from $6.2 billion in 2011 to $10.9 billion in 2016, a
The US will increase at a 12.1 percent compound annual
rate to $9.6 billion from $5.4 billion in 2011, and Canada
will increase from $743 million in 2011 to $1.4 billion in
2016, a 12.7 percent gain compounded annually.
Total electronic market
(US$ millions)
North America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
United States 1,872 2,371 2,772 3,261 5,417 6,473 7,381 8,222 8,998 9,572 12.1
Canada 220 306 393 579 743 884 1,016 1,138 1,249 1,350 12.7
Total 2,092 2,677 3,165 3,840 6,160 7,357 8,397 9,360 10,247 10,922 12.1
Total home video
Overall spending on both physical and electronic home
video in North America totaled $22 billion in 2011, down
0.8 percent from 2010, as a 1.1 percent decline in the
United States offset a 1.5 percent increase in Canada.
We look for that pattern to continue during the next fve
years. Spending will fall to $21.1 billion in 2016, an
0.8 percent decrease compounded annually from 2011.
The US home video market will decline at a 1.2 percent
compound annual rate from $19.1 billion in 2011 to
$18 billion in 2016.
In Canada, home video spending has increased during the
past two years, and we expect modest gains going forward
that will average 1.8 percent compounded annually to
$3.1 billion in 2016 from $2.9 billion in 2011.
For total home video market data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook
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Filmed entertainment | EMEA 307
New multiplexes and 3-D expansion will boost the box
offce market.
Captive audiences and favorable demographics will
support cinema advertising.
Competition from electronic services will cut into the
physical market.
New services and technology will drive electronic
distribution.
Overview
Filmed entertainment spending in EMEA will total
$29.5 billion in 2016, averaging 2.6 percent growth
compounded annually from $26 billion in 2011.
Box offce spending will rise by 4.7 percent compounded
annually to $14 billion in 2016 from $11.2 billion in 2011.
Cinema advertising will expand from $886 million in
2011 to $1.1 billion in 2016, a 3.5 percent increase
rise from $12 billion in 2011 to $15.1 billion in 2016, a
Home video physical sell-through will decline to
$9.7 billion in 2016, down 1.9 percent on a compound
annual basis from $10.7 billion in 2011.
Home video physical rentals will fall by 7.6 percent
compounded annually to $973 million in 2016 from
The overall physical home video market will fall from
compound annual decline.
will grow at an 11.6 percent compound annual rate to
$2.4 billion from $1.4 billion in 2011.
Spending on over-the-top/streaming services will
reach $1.4 billion in 2016 from $422 million in 2011,
The total electronic home video market will expand at a
16.0 percent compound annual rate from $1.8 billion in
2011 to $3.7 billion in 2016.
Overall home video spending will total $14.5 billion in
2016 from $13.9 billion in 2011, a 0.7 percent increase
Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA)
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EMEA

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Out-of-home
Box ofce 8,510 8,953 10,043 10,791 11,161 11,601 12,165 12,756 13,384 14,037
Cinema advertising 951 872 797 861 886 896 919 959 1,005 1,054
Total out-of-home 9,461 9,825 10,840 11,652 12,047 12,497 13,084 13,715 14,389 15,091
Physical home video
Sell-through 12,673 12,351 11,648 11,293 10,720 10,247 9,953 9,823 9,767 9,741
Rental 2,319 1,839 1,680 1,555 1,446 1,346 1,256 1,166 1,077 973
Total physical
home video 14,992 14,190 13,328 12,848 12,166 11,593 11,209 10,989 10,844 10,714
Through TV
subscription providers 969 1,113 1,098 1,213 1,360 1,503 1,669 1,871 2,097 2,351
Over-the-top/streaming 49 92 169 312 422 561 727 927 1,155 1,387
Total electronic
home video 1,018 1,205 1,267 1,525 1,782 2,064 2,396 2,798 3,252 3,738
Total home video 16,010 15,395 14,595 14,373 13,948 13,657 13,605 13,787 14,096 14,452
Total 25,471 25,220 25,435 26,025 25,995 26,154 26,689 27,502 28,485 29,543
Filter advertising and consumer spending data across segments.
Visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook
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EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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CAGR
Out-of-home
Box ofce 1.2 5.2 12.2 7.4 3.4 3.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7
Total out-of-home 0.8 3.8 10.3 7.5 3.4 3.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.6
Physical home video
Sell-through 1.4 2.5 5.7 3.0 5.1 4.4 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 1.9
Rental 10.4 20.7 8.6 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.7 7.2 7.6 9.7 7.6
Total physical
home video 0.6 5.3 6.1 3.6 5.3 4.7 3.3 2.0 1.3 1.2 2.5
Through TV
Total electronic
home video 21.9 18.4 5.1 20.4 16.9 15.8 16.1 16.8 16.2 14.9 16.0
Total home video 0.6 3.8 5.2 1.5 3.0 2.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.5 0.7
Total 0.7 1.0 0.9 2.3 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.0 3.6 3.7 2.6
Western Europe will increase from $22.8 billion in
2011 to $25.3 billion in 2016, a 2.1 percent compound
annual increase.
Central and Eastern Europe will be the fastest-growing
area, averaging 6.2 percent growth compounded annually.
Spending will rise from $2.6 billion in 2011 to $3.5 billion
in 2016.
Middle East/Africa will expand at a 3.8 percent compound
annual rate to $823 million in 2016 from $684 million
in 2011.
The United Kingdom is the largest market in the region, at
$6 billion in 2011. France is next, at $4.4 billion, followed
by Germany at $3.8 billion, Italy at $1.9 billion, Russia at
$1.6 billion, and Spain at $1.1 billion. These six territories
constitute 73 percent of flmed entertainment spending
in EMEA.
The UK decreased 0.3 percent in 2011 as declines in
cinema advertising and physical home video offset gains
in box offce and electronic distribution.
France grew by 2.5 percent in 2011, benefting from a
strong box offce and cinema advertising market and
growth in electronic spending.
Germany rose 2.3 percent in 2011, the result of an
increase in box offce spending, cinema advertising,
and a small but expanding electronic market.
Italy recorded an 8.4 percent decline in 2011, the steepest
of any country in EMEA. Weak box offce performance, a
drop in cinema advertising, and a declining physical home
video market accounted for the decline.
Russia rose 5.7 percent, fueled principally by an 8.9 percent
increase in box offce spending and a strong cinema
advertising market that offset a decline in home video.
Spain fell 6.5 percent in 2011, hurt by a weak economy
and declines in box offce and home video spending.
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EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Western Europe
Austria 331 335 339 348 356 358 366 373 385 397 2.2
Belgium 688 651 606 582 567 556 554 553 557 563 0.1
Denmark 410 421 425 399 390 389 390 397 405 414 1.2
Finland 220 235 217 231 224 226 229 239 248 260 3.0
France 3,985 3,922 4,059 4,298 4,407 4,555 4,731 4,939 5,185 5,445 4.3
Germany 3,439 3,387 3,759 3,707 3,794 3,876 3,985 4,165 4,333 4,479 3.4
Greece 202 210 250 218 204 192 192 195 202 207 0.3
Ireland 545 545 504 433 397 372 356 350 350 349 2.5
Italy 2,485 2,216 2,026 2,093 1,917 1,883 1,900 1,950 2,017 2,098 1.8
Netherlands 927 905 899 891 865 837 850 875 914 957 2.0
Norway 666 649 618 610 616 602 604 608 616 630 0.5
Portugal 299 318 301 296 278 263 259 260 270 282 0.3
Spain 1,404 1,236 1,218 1,225 1,145 1,111 1,120 1,149 1,207 1,272 2.1
Sweden 851 792 823 834 844 852 869 885 903 925 1.8
Switzerland 681 672 694 737 734 734 740 754 772 793 1.6
United Kingdom 6,120 6,234 6,019 6,041 6,022 5,945 5,939 5,990 6,081 6,199 0.6
Western Europe total 23,253 22,728 22,757 22,943 22,760 22,751 23,084 23,682 24,445 25,270 2.1
Central and Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 135 133 127 141 146 149 153 157 160 165 2.5
Hungary 97 91 98 105 105 107 110 114 117 121 2.9
Poland 310 344 368 378 397 413 425 439 455 471 3.5
Romania 12 18 30 38 40 44 47 50 53 56 7.0
Russia 924 1,123 1,196 1,508 1,594 1,696 1,822 1,962 2,108 2,264 7.3
Turkey 148 178 208 254 269 285 306 327 350 373 6.8
Central and Eastern
Europe total 1,626 1,887 2,027 2,424 2,551 2,694 2,863 3,049 3,243 3,450 6.2
Middle East/Africa
Israel 154 157 176 160 159 158 162 166 169 172 1.6
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)
96 96 101 101 109 114 121 128 135 143 5.6

South Africa 342 352 374 397 416 437 459 477 493 508 4.1
Middle East/
Africa total 592 605 651 658 684 709 742 771 797 823 3.8
EMEA total 25,471 25,220 25,435 26,025 25,995 26,154 26,689 27,502 28,485 29,543 2.6
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.
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Box offce
Box offce spending rose 3.4 percent in 2011, benefting
from strong local product in a number of countries that
offset weaker fare from Hollywood.
A strong slate of local flms contributed to growth in
France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK,
the Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey, and South Africa.
In general, strong-performing local flms, even if they
constitute a minority of total spending, can infuence the
overall market. Exceptions to this pattern occurred in Italy
and Spain, both of which also experienced growth in local
flms but nevertheless suffered declines in overall box
offce spending.
Relatively tight planning regulations in many European
countries mean the density of screens per head remains
well below other mature markets worldwide, such as the
US and Australia. When planning permission is secured
for a new multiplex cinema, usually as part of a retail
development, it has an incremental positive effect on
admissions in that market.
The trend toward digital continued in 2011, with more
than half of all screens now digital. The European
Parliament approved a measure in late 2011 urging public
service organizations to help fund conversion of the
remaining screens to digital.
Conversion to 3-D also is proceeding, with around
40 percent of all screens in France and the UK capable
of showing 3-D flms and around 25 percent of screens
available for 3-D in Germany, Italy, and Spain.
The lack of 3-D screens is no longer an impediment to
3-D admissions, although even in 3-D, flms still need to
be appealing to attract an audience. Grosses for 3-D flms
were up in France but down in the UK in 2011.
The growth in 3-D releases is putting upward pressure on
pricing because 3-D flms typically carry surcharges. The
average ticket price rose 6.7 percent in 2010, well above
increases in prior years. In 2011, as the novelty effect
of 3-D began to wear off and as economies weakened,
exhibitors became less aggressive in their pricing, and
growth slowed to 2.6 percent.
We expect somewhat faster price growth as the share of
3-D flms increases, although the incremental impact of
3-D will moderate. We project the average price to rise at
a 3.1 percent compound annual rate during the next fve
years. It will be less than increases posted in 200910 but
more than gains in 200708, when 3-D was not a mate-
rial factor. By 2016, the average movie ticket will cost
$10.25 compared with $8.78 in 2011.
Admission prices were highest in Western Europe, at
$9.89 in 2011, up 2.4 percent from 2010. We expect
growth to average 3.1 percent compounded annually to
$11.54 in 2016.
In Central and Eastern Europe, the average price rose
4.5 percent in 2011 to $6.68. We expect the average price
in Central and Eastern Europe to rise to $8.28 in 2016, a
In Middle East/Africa, the average price rose 3.2 percent
to $3.84. We expect growth to average 3.1 percent
compounded annually to $4.47 in 2016.
Admissions rose 0.9 percent in 2011, with virtually all of
that growth in Russia. New multiplexes and higher flm
quality through digitalization are boosting the box offce
market in Russia. Excluding Russia, admissions were
up only 0.2 percent, with gains in the UK, France,
Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, and
MENA offsetting declines or relatively stable totals in
other countries.
We expect relatively modest growth in ticket prices to
have a positive impact on the market. Films in 3-D also
are draws, although less dramatically than in 2010.
Nevertheless, good flms in 3-D will still fnd audiences.
In general, new multiplexes in Central and Eastern
Europe and digital projection in Western Europe improve
the experience and should have a positive impact on
admissions over the long run.
On balance, we expect admissions to rise at modest rates
during the next fve years, reaching 1.37 billion in 2016, a
1.5 percent compound annual increase from 1.27 billion
in 2011.
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Western Europe, which has the most advanced cinema
infrastructure, will show the lowest growth, at 0.7 percent
compounded annually to 940 million in 2016 from
909 million in 2011.
We expect Central and Eastern Europe to be the fastest-
growing area in EMEA, with a projected 3.8 percent
compound annual increase, led by continued healthy
growth in Russia. Admissions will increase to 332 million
in 2016 from 276 million in 2011.
Admissions in Middle East/Africa will average 2.3 percent
growth compounded annually through 2016 to 97 million
from 87 million in 2011.
These forecasts refect our analysis of underlying trends.
They do not take into account the performance of the slate
of prospective releases, which can signifcantly enhance or
offset admissions in any given year.
Box offce spending will expand at a projected 4.7 percent
compound annual rate to $14 billion in 2016 from
Growth in Western Europe will average 3.8 percent
compounded annually, with spending increasing from
$9 billion in 2011 to $10.9 billion in 2016.
Central and Eastern Europe will rise from $1.8 billion in
2011 to $2.8 billion in 2016, an 8.3 percent compound
annual increase.
Middle East/Africa will total $434 million in 2016
Cinema advertising
Reported cinema advertising revenues posted their second
consecutive annual increase in 2011, with a 2.9 percent
gain to $886 million.
Cinema advertising had declined from 2005 to 2009, in
part refecting a weakening economy and in part a dim
view of the medium among advertisers.
That view appears to have changed, helped by the digiti-
zation of theaters, which allows for ads to be distributed
effciently and inexpensively, and by general technological
advances, including 3-D.
Movies also attract younger audiences than do most other
media, reaching people who are not distracted by other
media and who are focusing on what is on the screen.
We expect these factors to have a positive impact on
cinema advertising once economic conditions improve.
In the near term, however, weakening economies will
lead to declines in Western Europe in 2012 and slower
growth in all of EMEA. We then look for a modest increase
in Western Europe in 2013 and increasing growth in
subsequent years. Cinema advertising in Western Europe
will increase from $715 million in 2011 to $805 million in
2016, a 2.4 percent gain compounded annually.
Fueled by rising admissions, Central and Eastern Europe
will be the fastest-growing area, with a 9.1 percent
compound annual increase to $159 million in 2016 from
Middle East/Africa will total $90 million in 2016
from $68 million in 2011, a 5.8 percent compound
annual increase.
Overall cinema advertising will grow by 3.5 percent on a
compound annual basis to $1.1 billion in 2016.
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Box ofce market
(US$ millions)
EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Western Europe
Austria 143 152 161 166 174 179 186 193 202 209 3.7
Belgium 179 186 199 203 211 220 230 238 246 256 3.9
Denmark 123 137 138 140 148 153 159 165 171 177 3.6
Finland 70 77 78 92 89 93 97 102 107 111 4.5
France 1,479 1,594 1,704 1,867 2,024 2,142 2,240 2,337 2,437 2,538 4.6
Germany 1,055 1,106 1,358 1,280 1,333 1,394 1,457 1,501 1,540 1,580 3.5
Greece 122 134 178 156 153 152 156 161 167 173 2.5
Ireland 163 174 195 179 178 181 185 192 199 207 3.1
Italy 932 886 924 1,074 968 972 997 1,039 1,089 1,149 3.5
Netherlands 223 230 278 305 334 330 344 360 380 399 3.6
Norway 143 152 175 174 190 191 199 207 215 223 3.3
Portugal 106 110 117 136 135 136 142 147 154 160 3.5
Spain 896 861 934 921 865 858 878 908 959 1,011 3.2
Sweden 184 188 228 227 241 252 264 276 285 294 4.1
Switzerland 227 235 259 264 273 283 293 305 315 326 3.6
United Kingdom 1,317 1,363 1,514 1,585 1,668 1,718 1,796 1,877 1,957 2,037 4.1
Czech Republic 68 69 71 85 92 97 102 107 112 116 4.7
Hungary 49 50 56 63 64 68 72 76 79 83 5.3
Poland 175 184 230 238 260 277 291 304 319 334 5.1
Romania 11 17 29 37 39 43 46 49 52 55 7.1
Russia 465 626 722 1,055 1,149 1,259 1,388 1,529 1,677 1,833 9.8
Turkey 127 155 185 228 240 253 272 291 311 332 6.7
Central and Eastern
Europe total 895 1,101 1,293 1,706 1,844 1,997 2,171 2,356 2,550 2,753 8.3
Middle East/Africa
Israel 95 99 119 104 104 105 109 113 116 120 2.9
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)
66 69 75 78 84 90 97 104 110 118 7.0

South Africa 92 99 116 134 145 155 165 175 185 196 6.2
Middle East/
Africa total 253 267 310 316 333 350 371 392 411 434 5.4
EMEA total 8,510 8,953 10,043 10,791 11,161 11,601 12,165 12,756 13,384 14,037 4.7
Sources: Centre National de la Cinmatographie, Danish National Statistical Ofce, Film & Kino, Finnish Film Foundation, German Federal Film Board, Ministry of Culture
of the Czech Republic, National Center of Cinematography, National Film and Video Foundations, National Film Ofce of Hungary, Nederlandse Federatie voor de
Cinematograe, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Spanish Ministry of Culture, Swiss Federal Statistical Ofce, UK Film Council, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Western Europe
Austria 17 15 13 15 14 14 14 15 15 15 1.4
Belgium 24 25 22 24 28 26 26 25 25 25 2.2
Denmark 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 4.2
Finland 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 8.4
France 104 88 90 107 129 139 153 167 181 195 8.6
Germany 147 107 100 104 110 110 111 113 115 118 1.4
Greece 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 7 8 4.4
Ireland 8 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 6 6 8.4
Italy 71 58 56 63 51 49 47 49 50 51 0.0
Netherlands 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 2.7
Norway 23 25 21 25 28 29 30 31 32 33 3.3
Portugal 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 8.4
Spain 53 29 21 35 38 35 33 33 35 36 1.1
Sweden 14 16 16 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 3.9
Switzerland 37 35 24 26 25 24 24 24 25 26 0.8
United Kingdom 273 274 258 244 231 225 221 223 226 233 0.2
Western Europe total 811 721 665 705 715 712 720 745 773 805 2.4
Czech Republic 6 5 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 8.4
Hungary 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0.0
Poland 23 30 30 33 34 37 39 41 43 45 5.8
Romania 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.0
Russia 15 20 14 27 32 36 42 49 56 64 14.9
Turkey 21 23 23 26 29 32 34 36 39 41 7.2
Central and Eastern
Europe total 70 83 73 94 103 113 123 134 146 159 9.1
Middle East/Africa
Israel 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 5.9
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)
30 27 26 23 25 24 24 24 25 25 0.0
South Africa 34 35 28 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 9.0
Middle East/
Africa total 70 68 59 62 68 71 76 80 86 90 5.8
EMEA total 951 872 797 861 886 896 919 959 1,005 1,054 3.5
Sources: InfoAdex, Markkinointiviestinnan Maara Suomessa, Medienorge, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Werbung im Kino, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, ZAW
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Total out-of-home
increase from $12 billion in 2011 to $15.1 billion in 2016,
a 4.6 percent gain compounded annually.
Physical home video
Sell-through
Physical sell-through spending declined during the
past four years, as a result of steep discounting in some
countries, the growing appeal of electronic distribution, a
weak economic environment, and diminished interest in
owning flms.
Piracy is also a problem in a number of countries, most
notably Russia, Spain, Ireland, and South Africa. In
France, despite the positive effects of HADOPI, the
antipiracy law that was issued in 2009, piracy of flms and
audiovisual works remains at a high level. Loss of sales to
illegitimate product limits legitimate sell-through growth.
There also is falling demand for DVDs, the principal sell-
through format. With many households now watching
HD television, the picture quality of a standard-defnition
DVD falls short of the HD experience that households
are becoming accustomed to, and DVD sales have fallen.
Ironically, DVDs replaced the VHS format because of its
superior picture quality.
The bright spot in physical sell-through is high-defnition
Blu-ray, which is expanding from a small base. Rising
Blu-ray sales will help limit declines in overall physical
sell-through.
Going forward, advances in electronic delivery will
continue to cut into physical sell-through spending even
as Blu-ray expands. Electronic options are generally more
convenient and less expensive than purchasing a flm.
We project spending to continue declining during the next
fve years, with decreases moderating in 201416 as the
growing Blu-ray market gains share and contributes more
to overall spending.
We project physical sell-through in Western Europe to
decrease at a 1.9 percent compound annual rate to
$9 billion in 2016 from $10 billion in 2011. Central and
Eastern Europe will decline at a 2.2 percent compound
annual rate, falling to $532 million in 2016 from
$595 million in 2011. Middle East/Africa will grow by
1.7 percent compounded annually to $175 million in 2016
from $161 million in 2011.
Physical sell-through for all of EMEA will decline from
compound annual decrease.
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EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Western Europe
Austria 132 128 125 122 118 111 106 100 96 92 4.9
Belgium 363 364 319 285 257 237 218 202 188 175 7.4
Denmark 187 194 198 167 149 140 135 132 131 130 2.7
Finland 111 115 97 93 86 81 75 71 68 67 4.9
France 2,077 1,923 1,925 1,927 1,753 1,669 1,635 1,628 1,642 1,669 1.0
Germany 1,852 1,797 1,916 1,925 1,942 1,920 1,906 1,959 1,995 2,003 0.6
Greece 38 35 32 28 22 17 15 15 14 14 8.6
Ireland 278 267 213 167 139 118 104 97 93 90 8.3
Italy 1,043 895 758 696 654 627 618 612 609 608 1.4
Netherlands 486 472 434 401 344 312 301 287 282 281 4.0
Norway 399 389 359 342 325 308 295 286 281 280 2.9
Portugal 97 121 110 93 82 72 65 61 58 57 7.0
Spain 305 218 152 163 143 125 115 107 102 97 7.5
Sweden 385 384 371 366 359 351 343 337 332 330 1.7
Switzerland 365 346 356 395 383 370 361 355 352 350 1.8
United Kingdom 3,767 3,864 3,472 3,350 3,208 3,047 2,927 2,847 2,807 2,791 2.7
Czech Republic 53 51 48 47 45 44 43 42 41 41 1.8
Hungary 34 34 36 35 34 33 32 32 32 32 1.2
Poland 112 130 108 107 103 99 95 94 93 92 2.2
Romania NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Russia 444 477 460 426 413 401 392 384 375 367 2.3
Turkey NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Central and Eastern
Europe total 643 692 652 615 595 577 562 552 541 532 2.2
Middle East/Africa
Israel 27 26 26 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 0.8
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
South Africa 118 121 133 133 136 141 148 151 152 151 2.1
Middle East/
Africa total 145 147 159 158 161 165 172 175 176 175 1.7
EMEA total 12,673 12,351 11,648 11,293 10,720 10,247 9,953 9,823 9,767 9,741 1.9
Sources: Aquidneck Consulting, Audiovisuelle Medien, British Video Association, Bundesverband, Danish Film Institute, GfK Gruppe, International Video Federation, NVPI,
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Finland, Unione Italiana Editoria Audiovisiva, Videobransjens Felleskontor, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Rentals
The physical rental market in EMEA has been declining
since 2002, and decreases in recent years have been
steeper than in physical sell-through. Spending in 2011
fell 7.0 percent to $1.4 billion.
The availability of flms on television either for free or
on a video-on-demand basis has taken business from the
physical rental market. With new, streaming services
becoming available, we expect physical rentals to continue
to decline.
We project physical rental spending in Western Europe
to decline at an 8.5 percent compound annual rate to
$843 million in 2016 from $1.3 billion in 2011. Central
and Eastern Europe will fall by 7.8 percent compounded
annually to $6 million from $9 million in 2011, whereas
Middle East/Africa will increase from $122 million to
$124 million, a 0.3 percent compound annual gain.
For EMEA as a whole, physical rental spending will
decrease at a 7.6 percent compound annual rate to
Total spending on physical home video will decline at a

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EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Western Europe
Austria 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 14.3
Belgium 90 40 31 28 21 14 11 10 8 7 19.7
Denmark 79 67 65 65 63 62 60 58 56 54 3.0
Finland 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 14.3
France 139 95 77 57 49 42 35 28 21 14 22.2
Germany 381 367 356 338 319 309 299 291 284 270 3.3
Greece 28 26 26 22 18 14 13 11 10 8 15.0
Ireland 93 92 86 75 70 63 56 49 42 35 12.9
Italy 303 224 160 125 100 81 65 54 46 39 17.2
Netherlands 107 90 85 77 70 64 58 54 50 46 8.1
Norway 78 58 38 38 36 30 29 25 21 18 12.9
Portugal 57 45 35 31 26 22 18 15 14 13 12.9
Spain 72 39 22 15 11 8 7 6 6 4 18.3
Sweden 228 161 164 175 170 166 162 158 156 154 2.0
Switzerland 19 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 9.7
United Kingdom 473 353 356 334 321 305 281 249 209 160 13.0
Western Europe total 2,177 1,705 1,548 1,424 1,315 1,216 1,126 1,035 947 843 8.5
Czech Republic 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6.5
Hungary 10 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 12.9
Poland NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Russia
Central and Eastern
Europe total 18 11 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 7.8
Middle East/Africa
Israel 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 22 21 20 3.6
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)
South Africa 98 97 97 97 98 100 101 102 103 104 1.2
Middle East/
Africa total 124 123 123 122 122 123 123 124 124 124 0.3
EMEA total 2,319 1,839 1,680 1,555 1,446 1,346 1,256 1,166 1,077 973 7.6
Sources: British Video Association, Bundesverband Audiovisuelle Medien, Danish Film Institute, GfK Gruppe, International Video Federation, NVPI,
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Unione Italiana Editoria Audiovisiva, Videobransjens Felleskontor, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Western Europe
Austria 147 143 140 136 131 122 116 108 103 98 5.6
Belgium 453 404 350 313 278 251 229 212 196 182 8.1
Denmark 266 261 263 232 212 202 195 190 187 184 2.8
Finland 126 130 112 107 99 92 85 79 75 73 5.9
France 2,216 2,018 2,002 1,984 1,802 1,711 1,670 1,656 1,663 1,683 1.4
Germany 2,233 2,164 2,272 2,263 2,261 2,229 2,205 2,250 2,279 2,273 0.1
Greece 66 61 58 50 40 31 28 26 24 22 11.3
Ireland 371 359 299 242 209 181 160 146 135 125 9.8
Italy 1,346 1,119 918 821 754 708 683 666 655 647 3.0
Netherlands 593 562 519 478 414 376 359 341 332 327 4.6
Norway 477 447 397 380 361 338 324 311 302 298 3.8
Portugal 154 166 145 124 108 94 83 76 72 70 8.3
Spain 377 257 174 178 154 133 122 113 108 101 8.1
Sweden 613 545 535 541 529 517 505 495 488 484 1.8
Switzerland 384 364 373 411 398 384 373 366 362 359 2.0
United Kingdom 4,240 4,217 3,828 3,684 3,529 3,352 3,208 3,096 3,016 2,951 3.5
Czech Republic 61 59 55 54 52 50 49 48 46 46 2.4
Hungary 44 37 38 37 36 34 33 33 33 33 1.7
Poland 112 130 108 107 103 99 95 94 93 92 2.2
Russia 444 477 460 426 413 401 392 384 375 367 2.3
Central and Eastern
Europe total 661 703 661 624 604 584 569 559 547 538 2.3
Middle East/Africa
Israel 53 52 52 50 49 47 46 46 45 44 2.1
Middle East/North
Africa (MENA)
South Africa 216 218 230 230 234 241 249 253 255 255 1.7
Middle East/
Africa total 269 270 282 280 283 288 295 299 300 299 1.1
EMEA total 14,992 14,190 13,328 12,848 12,166 11,593 11,209 10,989 10,844 10,714 2.5
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TV subscription providers offer la carte access to movies
through video-on-demand and pay-per-view services. The
UK and France are the leading markets in Western Europe,
at $353 million and $341 million, respectively, in 2011.
In the UK, BSkyB is launching an on-demand service to
limit competition both from Amazons LOVEFiLM service
and from Netfix, which launched in the UK in early 2012.
In France, Canal Plus is launching a subscription-based
VOD service, called Canalplay Infnity, in conjunction
with FilmoTV.
Telephone companies are entering the subscription TV
market and are featuring video-on-demand. As those
services expand, the potential market for video-on-
demand also will expand.
We project spending in Western Europe to increase at an
Germany, which was relatively small for its size, at
$45 million in 2011, will be the fastest-growing country
in Western Europe during the next fve years, with a
35.2 percent compound annual increase, buoyed by the
launch of new services.
(US$ millions)
Western Europe 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Austria 24 25 25 31 36 42 47 53 58 64 12.2
Belgium 32 36 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 83 11.1
Denmark 11 12 12 14 17 19 21 24 27 30 12.0
Finland 21 24 24 28 32 36 42 49 56 63 14.5
France 173 203 228 270 341 403 452 501 556 612 12.4
Germany 4 10 18 29 45 65 90 120 156 203 35.2
Greece 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 24.6
Ireland 3 4 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 3.1
Italy 135 152 127 132 141 150 167 188 209 230 10.3
Netherlands 104 106 93 99 106 118 132 153 174 195 13.0
Norway 21 23 22 27 31 36 40 45 49 54 11.7
Portugal 32 36 35 32 31 29 29 32 35 42 6.3
Spain 78 89 88 88 85 81 83 89 97 111 5.5
Sweden 39 42 42 46 51 55 62 69 77 85 10.8
Switzerland 32 37 36 34 35 37 41 45 51 56 9.9
United Kingdom 260 313 308 334 353 369 393 425 465 513 7.8
Western Europe total 969 1,113 1,098 1,213 1,360 1,503 1,669 1,871 2,097 2,351 11.6
Less than US$500,000.
Sources: International Video Federation, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Over-the-top/streaming consists of content that can be
accessed over the Internet on a subscription or la carte
pay basis that bypasses TV subscription providers.
The over-the-top/streaming market is relatively small, at
$422 million in 2011, with the UK, France, and Germany
the only signifcant countries, together constituting
94 percent of spending in Western Europe.
Few companies have been offering services on a paid
basis, and competition from free services through TV
subscription providers as well as from paid VOD has made
it diffcult for new companies to gain a foothold.
That may be changing as companies are becoming more
aggressive in launching services. Netfix introduced a
streaming service in the UK in early 2012 and plans to
enter other countries as well. Netfix has content deals
with BBC, Miramax, and Lionsgate. Google TV is also
launching in the UK, as is YouView, a partnership between
the BBC, ITV, Channel 5, Channel 4, Arqiva, BT, and
TalkTalk. YouView will provide on-demand content via a
set-top box.
LOVEFiLM, now owned by Amazon, offers a streaming
service, as do Jaman and Zune. The Xbox 360 and
PlayStation 3 platforms are now being used for accessing
movies from the Internet. YouTube has also launched a
movie rental service.
In France, most TV broadcasters now offer an over-the-
top service on their Web sites, as well as applications for
mobile devices, including catch-up and in some cases
direct broadcasts, VOD, and subscription VOD. However,
Internet protocol television services supplied by Internet
service providers still have a comfortable lead in France in
the market for video content supplied over the Internet.
In Switzerland, a number of over-the-top providers have
been active in the market since as early as 2006, when
Zattoo entered the scene. Today, these providers have
established themselves as an additional medium rather
than a substitute for traditional TV subscription providers.
Smart TVs that can access the Internet facilitate the over-
the-top market by making it easier to watch content on
television rather than on PCs.
The ability to watch movies and TV shows on tablets
provides another electronic distribution outlet.
As new services enter the market and existing services
gain traction, we expect spending on over-the-top content
to expand. We project spending to rise to $1.4 billion in
2016, a 26.9 percent compound annual increase.
Despite that gain, spending on TV subscription services will
continue to dominate the electronic home video market.
Total spending on electronic home video will double
during the next fve years to $3.7 billion in 2016 from
$1.8 billion in 2011, a 16.0 percent compound
annual increase.

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Western Europe 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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CAGR
Austria 1 1 3 4 7 11 61.5
Belgium 1 3 6 8 13 17 76.2
Denmark 1 1 3 5 7
Finland 1 1 3 4 7
France 13 19 35 70 111 160 216 278 348 417 30.3
Germany 11 31 45 78 122 181 243 305 46.6
Greece 1 1
Ireland 1 1 3 4
Italy 1 1 1 3 3 4 6 8 14 21 47.6
Netherlands 1 1 3 3 4 6 8 14 21 28 47.6
Norway 2 2 3 4 6 8 11 14 18 22 29.7
Portugal 1 1 3 4
Spain 1 3 3 4 4 6 8 13 34.1
Sweden 1 1 2 2 4 8 17 23 31 39 57.7
Switzerland 1 1 2 2 3 6 9 14 19 26 54.0
United Kingdom 30 67 111 194 241 281 321 369 417 465 14.0
Western Europe total 49 92 169 312 422 561 727 927 1,155 1,387 26.9
Sources: International Video Federation, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Total electronic market
(US$ millions)
Western Europe 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Austria 24 25 25 31 37 43 50 57 65 75 15.2
Belgium 32 36 35 42 50 59 69 78 90 100 14.9
Denmark 11 12 12 14 17 20 22 27 32 37 16.8
Finland 21 24 24 28 32 37 43 52 60 70 16.9
France 186 222 263 340 452 563 668 779 904 1,029 17.9
Germany 4 10 29 60 90 143 212 301 399 508 41.4
Greece 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 32.0
Ireland 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 12.9
Italy 136 153 128 135 144 154 173 196 223 251 11.8
Netherlands 105 107 96 102 110 124 140 167 195 223 15.2
Norway 23 25 25 31 37 44 51 59 67 76 15.5
Portugal 32 36 35 32 31 29 30 33 38 46 8.2
Spain 78 89 89 91 88 85 87 95 105 124 7.1
Sweden 40 43 44 48 55 63 79 92 108 124 17.7
Switzerland 33 38 38 36 38 43 50 59 70 82 16.6
United Kingdom 290 380 419 528 594 650 714 794 882 978 10.5
Total home video
The overall home video market, including physical sales
and rentals and electronic distribution, will expand at a
0.7 percent compound annual rate, rising to $14.5 billion
Growth in electronic sales will begin to offset ongoing
declines in physical sales beginning in 2014.
Western Europe will total $13.6 billion in 2016, up
0.8 percent on a compound annual basis from $13.1 billion
in 2011. Central and Eastern Europe will decline at a
2.3 percent rate compounded annually to $538 million, and
Middle East/Africa will rise to $299 million, a 1.1 percent
compound annual gain.
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Asia Pacifc
New multiplexes will fuel box offce spending.
Cinema advertising will beneft from box offce growth
and favorable demographics.
Competition from electronic delivery will cut into the
physical home video market.
New services will propel electronic distribution.
Overview
Filmed entertainment spending will expand at a
6.3 percent compound annual rate to $29.9 billion
in 2016 from $22 billion in 2011.
Box offce will rise from $10.1 billion in 2011 to
$16.5 billion in 2016, a 10.3 percent increase
Cinema advertising will increase from $496 million in
2011 to $759 million in 2016, an 8.9 percent compound
annual gain.
reach $17.3 billion in 2016, a 10.2 percent compound
annual increase from $10.6 billion in 2011.
Home video physical sell-through will grow at a
0.6 percent compound annual rate to $5.4 billion
Home video physical rentals will decline at a 3.7 percent
compound annual rate to $4 billion in 2016 from
The total physical home video market will decrease at a
1.4 percent compound annual rate from $10.1 billion in
2011 to $9.4 billion in 2016.
will increase at a 10.5 percent compound annual rate to
$996 million in 2016 from $604 million in 2011.
Over-the-top/streaming will reach $2.2 billion in 2016
The total electronic flmed entertainment market will rise
from $1.3 billion in 2011 to $3.2 billion in 2016, growing
at a 19.8 percent compound annual rate.
The overall home video market will increase from
gain compounded annually.
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Filmed entertainment | Asia Pacic 325
(US$ millions)
Asia Pacic

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Out-of-home
Box ofce 7,883 8,292 8,809 9,546 10,120 11,238 12,453 13,714 15,087 16,520
Total out-of-home 8,255 8,673 9,198 9,982 10,616 11,780 13,045 14,356 15,787 17,279
Physical home video
Sell-through 5,124 5,079 5,050 5,251 5,217 5,284 5,335 5,362 5,371 5,363
Rental 5,262 5,136 4,967 4,894 4,861 4,809 4,703 4,538 4,313 4,021
Total physical
home video 10,386 10,215 10,017 10,145 10,078 10,093 10,038 9,900 9,684 9,384
Through TV
subscription providers 369 477 487 560 604 683 760 840 916 996
Over-the-top/streaming 36 116 262 414 693 1,008 1,309 1,603 1,900 2,211
Total electronic
home video 405 593 749 974 1,297 1,691 2,069 2,443 2,816 3,207
Total home video 10,791 10,808 10,766 11,119 11,375 11,784 12,107 12,343 12,500 12,591
Total 19,046 19,481 19,964 21,101 21,991 23,564 25,152 26,699 28,287 29,870
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Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Out-of-home
Box ofce 5.2 5.2 6.2 8.4 6.0 11.0 10.8 10.1 10.0 9.5 10.3
Total out-of-home 6.4 5.1 6.1 8.5 6.4 11.0 10.7 10.0 10.0 9.5 10.2
Physical home video
Sell-through 3.5 0.9 0.6 4.0 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.6
Rental 3.2 2.4 3.3 1.5 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.0 6.8 3.7
Total physical
home video 3.3 1.6 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 3.1 1.4
Through TV
Total electronic
home video 51.1 46.4 26.3 30.0 33.2 30.4 22.4 18.1 15.3 13.9 19.8
Total home video 4.6 0.2 0.4 3.3 2.3 3.6 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.7 2.1
Total 5.3 2.3 2.5 5.7 4.2 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.6 6.3
Japan is the dominant market in the region, at $8.2 billion
in 2011, followed by Australia at $4 billion, the Peoples
Republic of China (PRC) at $2.7 billion, South Korea at
$1.8 billion, and India at $1.7 billion.
The market in Japan fell by 2.8 percent in 2011, largely as
a result of consumers energy-saving behavior stemming
from the earthquake and tsunami. With Japan having
largely rebuilt its infrastructure, we anticipate a rebound
in 2012 followed by continuing but moderating growth.
The Australian market rose by 1.3 percent in 2011, its
slowest growth during the past fve years. Modest
growth in box offce and physical home video combined
with gains in a small electronic market accounted for
the increase.
The PRC rose 31.5 percent in 2011, which represented a
slowdown following the 53.1 percent gain in 2010. New
multiplexes are driving admissions and will continue to do
so for the next fve years. Piracy limits the home
video market, although an expanding electronic market
will contribute to ongoing growth. We expect the PRC
to increase by 22.1 percent compounded annually to
$7.4 billion in 2016. The PRC will pass Australia in 2013
to become the second-largest country in the region
behind Japan.
The PRC has agreed to signifcantly increase access for
American-made flms. Also, more joint ventures between
Hollywood and Chinese media companies are to be
established, and these are expected to boost the Chinese
box offce market.
South Korea grew 6.1 percent in 2011 as a 7.5 percent
increase in box offce spending and an expanding
electronic market offset declines in physical home video.
India rose 11.4 percent in 2011, benefting from a rebound
in box offce spending.
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Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 3,263 3,611 3,865 3,986 4,039 4,150 4,237 4,328 4,416 4,509 2.2
China 782 981 1,350 2,067 2,719 3,602 4,478 5,385 6,348 7,374 22.1
Hong Kong 382 405 413 439 452 475 498 519 543 566 4.6
India 1,714 1,894 1,661 1,488 1,658 1,833 2,051 2,248 2,481 2,688 10.1
Indonesia 133 138 150 161 163 166 169 172 175 178 1.8
Japan 8,655 8,287 8,140 8,413 8,175 8,355 8,509 8,614 8,665 8,667 1.2
Malaysia 142 154 179 216 242 260 276 291 306 323 5.9
New Zealand 442 453 463 478 488 499 508 516 525 533 1.8
Pakistan 111 118 123 126 130 134 137 140 144 147 2.5
Philippines 271 286 297 308 321 335 354 372 390 408 4.9
Singapore 241 250 251 253 267 282 298 316 332 351 5.6
South Korea 1,496 1,512 1,661 1,691 1,794 1,859 1,952 2,043 2,137 2,231 4.5
Taiwan 883 881 884 906 913 931 948 964 979 993 1.7
Thailand 523 498 509 545 596 643 686 724 764 803 6.1
Vietnam 8 13 18 24 34 40 51 67 82 99 23.8
Total 19,046 19,481 19,964 21,101 21,991 23,564 25,152 26,699 28,287 29,870 6.3
Box offce
Admissions
New multiplexes are driving the box offce market. In
the PRC, the number of screens rose by 49.1 percent in
2011 to 9,200 from 6,170 at year-end 2010. More than
two-thirds of the screens in the PRC are digital, and more
than half of those are 3-D. It is expected that there will be
60,000 screens in the PRC by 2016, more than six times
the 2011 total. The increased availability of 3-D screens
is driving admissions, which rose 27.5 percent in 2011 to
440 million. We expect admissions to more than double
during the next fve years to 950 million by 2016, a
16.6 percent compound annual increase from 2011.
In India, admissions stabilized in 2011 following a two-
year decline. New theaters and growth in digital screens
will lead to renewed admissions growth, which we expect
will average 4.8 percent compounded annually to
2.7 billion in 2016.
In Japan, consumers energy-saving behavior following
the earthquake and tsunami led to an 8.0 percent drop in
admissions. We look for admissions to begin to recover in
2012 and to expand at modest rates through 2016.
Digitization is proceeding in Australia, with the major
chains converting their screens. Around half of the screens
in Australia are digital, and a third of all screens are
capable of showing 3-D flms. The slower growth in 2011
can be attributed to lack of big blockbuster releases.
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In South Korea, admissions rebounded with a 2.5 percent
gain following a 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Rapid
digitization and growth in 3-D screens are driving the
underlying market.
Rapid screen growth in Vietnam is driving admissions,
which rose 35.0 percent in 2011. We expect admissions to
more than double during the next fve years to 30 million
from 13.5 million in 2011.
In Thailand, fooding led to temporary theater closings
and contributed to a drop in admissions in 2011.
In the Philippines, the number of local flms produced
has fallen by half over the past decade due to piracy,
competition from Hollywood, and high taxes. Indepen-
dent movies accounted for 44 of 78 flms produced
in 2011. To boost local flmmaking, the Congress has
approved tax breaks for the Philippine movie industry
and some venue operators.
In Indonesia, a tax on foreign flms is leading to a drop in
the availability of Hollywood flms, which is leading to a
decline in admissions.
We project admissions in Asia Pacifc to rise at a 6.0 per-
cent compound annual rate to 4.4 billion in 2016 from
3.3 billion in 2011. The PRC and India will account for
95 percent of that growth.
Admission prices
Exhibitors are restraining price growth in order to sustain
admissions. We look for low- to mid-single-digit gains in
most countries.
Growth in the shares of low-priced countries such
as the PRC, India, and Vietnam is holding down the
overall average.
The overall average admission price will rise by
4.0 percent compounded annually to $3.76 in 2016
from $3.09 in 2011.
Box offce spending
Overall box offce spending rose 6.0 percent in 2011, led
by the huge gain in the PRC. The PRC overtook India in
2010 and Australia in 2011 to become the second-largest
box offce market, at $2 billion, behind Japan at
$2.4 billion.
We project the PRC will overtake Japan in 2012 to become
the largest market in the region, rising to $5.9 billion
in 2016, a 23.5 percent compound annual increase
from 2011.
Japan will total an estimated $2.8 billion in 2016, up
3.7 percent on a compound annual basis from 2011. India
will expand at a 9.4 percent compound annual rate to
Australia will rise to $2 billion by 2016, a 4.3 percent
increase compounded annually.
South Korea at $1.1 billion, the only other country above
$1 billion, will expand at a 4.8 percent compound annual
rate to $1.4 billion in 2016.
For Asia Pacifc as a whole, box offce spending will
increase from $10.1 billion in 2011 to $16.5 billion in
2016, a 10.3 percent compound annual growth rate.
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Box ofce market
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Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 1,272 1,341 1,545 1,611 1,634 1,710 1,786 1,863 1,942 2,021 4.3
China 516 653 960 1,574 2,045 2,727 3,424 4,183 5,004 5,887 23.5
Hong Kong 129 140 152 172 180 197 215 233 253 273 8.7
India 1,526 1,735 1,494 1,304 1,452 1,590 1,772 1,925 2,107 2,273 9.4
Indonesia 105 109 121 131 133 136 139 142 145 148 2.2
Japan 2,489 2,445 2,451 2,589 2,356 2,432 2,512 2,603 2,706 2,821 3.7
Malaysia 94 105 132 170 196 212 228 244 260 277 7.2
New Zealand 127 131 135 139 143 150 158 165 172 179 4.6
Pakistan 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5.9
Philippines 221 235 246 257 270 285 303 321 340 359 5.9
Singapore 122 130 134 134 143 153 164 175 187 199 6.8
South Korea 912 904 1,045 1,040 1,118 1,155 1,218 1,281 1,346 1,411 4.8
Taiwan 212 221 234 258 267 286 306 327 349 371 6.8
Thailand 137 117 128 129 134 149 160 168 176 183 6.4
Vietnam 8 13 18 24 34 40 51 66 81 98 23.6
Total 7,883 8,292 8,809 9,546 10,120 11,238 12,453 13,714 15,087 16,520 10.3
Sources: Korean Film Commission; Motion Picture Distributors Association of Australia; Motion Picture Distributors Association of New Zealand; Motion Picture Producers
Association of Japan; PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP; State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television; Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Cinema advertising
Because of the absence of data in Japan, which is the
leading market in overall advertising in Asia Pacifc, as
well as lack of data in several other countries, measured
cinema advertising is not a signifcant market in Asia
Pacifc. Thailand is the leading country, at $246 million
in 2011, with Australia next, at $97 million.
Cinema advertising is benefting from growing admissions
and the digitization of theaters, which facilitates the
distribution of ads to cinemas.
The medium allows advertisers to reach young people and
provides an environment where viewers are watching the
screen and engaged in the ads.
We project cinema advertising to increase to $759 million
in 2016, an 8.9 percent compound annual gain from 2011.
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Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 96 99 92 96 97 97 98 101 105 110 2.5
China 25 30 34 37 43 50 57 64 74 85 14.6
Hong Kong 1 1
India 26 30 30 31 34 37 41 45 50 55 10.1
Indonesia
Japan NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Malaysia 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 3.7
New Zealand 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 3.7
Pakistan 10 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 18 3.7
Philippines NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Singapore 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 10.8
South Korea 48 48 39 43 45 47 50 52 55 58 5.2
Taiwan NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Thailand 144 138 162 198 246 279 312 344 377 410 10.8
Vietnam 1 1 1
Total 372 381 389 436 496 542 592 642 700 759 8.9
Sources: Advertising Standards Authority, Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Total out-of-home
The total out-of-home flmed entertainment market will
increase at a 10.2 percent compound annual rate to
$17.3 billion in 2016 from $10.6 billion in 2011.
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Physical home video
Sell-through
The sell-through market fell 0.6 percent in 2011, hurt by a
5.0 percent decline in Japan, whose market was adversely
affected by declining demand for owning movies. Excluding
Japan, spending rose 2.9 percent.
We expect Japan to continue to decline as the market is
affected by competition from electronic services.
Australia has the only other signifcant physical sell-
through market, at $1.6 billion in 2011. Sell-through has
been growing steadily since 2006, although at modest
rates during the past three years. We expect another
advance in 2012 followed by declines thereafter as
competition from electronic platforms cuts into spending.
In the PRC, legitimate activity is only a fraction of the home
video market, and total spending was only $318 million.
Although piracy will continue to limit spending, this market
has been expanding, and we expect it will continue to do
so, although electronic sales will limit growth during the
latter part of the forecast period.
We expect India to be the fastest-growing country in
percentage terms, with a 20.8 percent compound annual
increase. The market in India is shifting from rental to sell-
through, which is fueling sell-through growth.
We project overall sell-through spending in Asia Pacifc
to rise from $5.2 billion in 2011 to $5.4 billion in 2016,
(US$ millions)
Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 1,343 1,544 1,564 1,585 1,600 1,610 1,605 1,595 1,574 1,548 0.7
China 170 209 240 280 318 356 387 403 411 418 5.6
Hong Kong 189 190 186 187 189 191 191 189 188 185 0.4
India 14 40 77 102 133 172 216 260 307 342 20.8
Indonesia 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.0
Japan 2,622 2,318 2,247 2,362 2,243 2,221 2,208 2,196 2,183 2,171 0.7
Malaysia 32 33 32 32 32 33 33 33 32 32 0.0
New Zealand 158 165 166 169 170 171 170 169 168 166 0.5
Pakistan 37 39 41 43 44 46 46 46 47 47 1.3
Philippines 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 17 17 0.0
Singapore 84 80 76 75 75 74 72 71 69 68 1.9
South Korea 39 35 32 30 30 29 28 26 25 24 4.4
Taiwan 376 366 355 353 352 351 349 345 340 335 1.0
Thailand 40 40 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 8.6
Vietnam NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total 5,124 5,079 5,050 5,251 5,217 5,284 5,335 5,362 5,371 5,363 0.6
Sources: GfK Australia, Japan Video Software Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Rentals
The physical rental market in Asia Pacifc also is domi-
nated by Japan and Australia. Japan at $2.9 billion in
2011 and Australia at $640 million together accounted
for 73 percent of total physical rental spending.
Japans rental market has been falling for a number of years
because competition from electronic distribution services is
cutting into the physical rental market. We expect declines
to accelerate as the electronic market expands. We project
rental spending in Japan to fall to $2.3 billion in 2016, a
5.0 percent decrease compounded annually.
Australias rental market, like its sell-through market,
has been steadily expanding since 2006, with growth
supported by online subscription retals. Quickfix acquired
the physical rental operations of BigPond Movies from
Telstra and is the largest online subscription rental service
in Australia. The market in Australia is now shifting to
electronic distribution, and we expect that physical rental
spending will begin to decline in 2012 and to fall to $547
million by 2016, a 3.1 percent compound annual decrease
from 2011.
We project the overall rental market in Asia Pacifc to
decline at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate to
$4 billion in 2016 from $4.9 billion in 2011.
Total spending on physical home video will decline at a
(US$ millions)
Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 508 573 609 635 640 630 609 588 568 547 3.1
China 71 74 77 80 81 82 83 84 84 85 1.0
Hong Kong 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 22 22 21 2.6
India 144 85 55 45 32 25 12 6 4 2 42.6
Indonesia 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 0.0
Japan 3,336 3,206 3,026 2,934 2,913 2,886 2,823 2,698 2,509 2,258 5.0
Malaysia 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 2.3
New Zealand 149 150 154 162 166 168 167 165 162 158 1.0
Pakistan 51 53 54 55 56 57 58 60 61 62 2.1
Philippines 33 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 33 32 1.2
Singapore 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 6.5
South Korea 398 389 384 375 366 357 348 339 330 321 2.6
Taiwan 295 294 295 295 294 294 293 292 290 287 0.5
Thailand 202 203 205 205 205 205 205 204 204 203 0.2
Vietnam NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total 5,262 5,136 4,967 4,894 4,861 4,809 4,703 4,538 4,313 4,021 3.7
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Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 1,851 2,117 2,173 2,220 2,240 2,240 2,214 2,183 2,142 2,095 1.3
China 241 283 317 360 399 438 470 487 495 503 4.7
Hong Kong 213 214 210 211 213 214 214 211 210 206 0.7
India 158 125 132 147 165 197 228 266 311 344 15.8
Indonesia 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 0.0
Japan 5,958 5,524 5,273 5,296 5,156 5,107 5,031 4,894 4,692 4,429 3.0
Malaysia 42 43 42 41 41 42 42 41 40 40 0.5
New Zealand 307 315 320 331 336 339 337 334 330 324 0.7
Pakistan 88 92 95 98 100 103 104 106 108 109 1.7
Philippines 50 51 51 51 51 50 51 51 50 49 0.8
Singapore 100 95 90 89 89 87 85 83 80 78 2.6
South Korea 437 424 416 405 396 386 376 365 355 345 2.7
Taiwan 671 660 650 648 646 645 642 637 630 622 0.8
Thailand 242 243 219 218 216 215 214 212 211 210 0.6
Vietnam NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total 10,386 10,215 10,017 10,145 10,078 10,093 10,038 9,900 9,684 9,384 1.4
Consumers can access movies via pay-per-view and video-
on-demand through TV subscription providers.
Growth in digital cable and telephone company services
are expanding the potential video-on-demand market.
Providers are promoting video-on-demand to attract
subscribers via a convenient ancillary service.
South Korea and Japan are the dominant countries,
together constituting 76 percent of total spending in 2011.
Signifcant growth in video delivered over Internet
protocolas distinct from over-the-top/streamingis
expected. In Australia, content aggregator Fetch TV
has signed agreements with the major Internet service
providers except Telstra to launch subscription TV services
with video-on-demand features. Growth will be driven by
lower price points and higher speeds and access as a result
of the National Broadband Network.
We project spending to rise from $604 million in 2011
to $996 million by 2016, growing at a 10.5 percent
compound annual rate.
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Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 43 52 52 51 53 57 62 67 72 77 7.8
China NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hong Kong 39 50 51 56 59 64 69 75 80 87 8.1
India 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10.8
Indonesia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Japan 173 220 200 223 224 251 276 301 326 351 9.4
Malaysia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
New Zealand NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Pakistan NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Singapore 11 15 18 22 27 33 38 44 49 55 15.3
South Korea 99 136 161 203 235 271 307 344 380 416 12.1
Thailand NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total 369 477 487 560 604 683 760 840 916 996 10.5
Videos can also be obtained directly over the Internet
through digital downloads and streaming services.
This component of the market is growing explosively, with
a 67.4 percent increase in 2011 to $693 million, fueled by
the launch of new services.
In Australia, Telstra launched an Internet streaming
service in 2010 and rented nearly 2 million movies in its
frst year. Downloads and streaming also are available
through the PlayStation Network and through Xbox 360.
In the PRC, online pay-per-view service Joy.cn made a
deal with Fox Home Entertainment in 2011 for access
to content.
In Japan, Nippon TV, TBS, Fuji TV, Toho, and Dentsu are
teaming up to offer a streaming service in 2012 that can
be accessed via smartphones. Hulu Japan launched a
subscription service in September 2011 and has content
deals with Toei, Shochiku, AMG Entertainment, Sony
Pictures, Toho-Towa, and others.
In South Korea, Samsung introduced an HD streaming
service in 2011 on its smart TVs that offer Internet access.
We expect these and other developments to propel the
over-the-top/streaming market.
We project overall spending to increase to $2.2 billion
in 2016, a 26.1 percent compound annual increase
from 2011.
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Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 1 2 3 8 15 46 77 114 155 206 68.9
China 15 39 96 232 387 527 651 775 899 31.1
Hong Kong NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
India 1 1 2 2 3 4 6 43.1
Japan 35 98 216 305 439 565 690 816 941 1,066 19.4
New Zealand 3 3 4 5 8 12 17 24 43.1
Singapore 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 9 35.1
South Korea 1 1 1 1
Total 36 116 262 414 693 1,008 1,309 1,603 1,900 2,211 26.1
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Total spending on electronic home video will increase
from $1.3 billion in 2011 to $3.2 billion in 2016, a
19.8 percent compound annual gain.
Total electronic home video market
(US$ millions)
Asia Pacic 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Australia 44 54 55 59 68 103 139 181 227 283 33.0
China 15 39 96 232 387 527 651 775 899 31.1
Hong Kong 39 50 51 56 59 64 69 75 80 87 8.1
India 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 13 16 18.0
Japan 208 318 416 528 663 816 966 1,117 1,267 1,417 16.4
New Zealand 3 3 4 5 8 12 17 24 43.1
Singapore 11 16 19 23 29 36 42 50 56 64 17.2
South Korea 99 136 161 203 235 271 308 345 381 417 12.2
Total 405 593 749 974 1,297 1,691 2,069 2,443 2,816 3,207 19.8
Total home video
The total home video market will expand at a projected
2.1 percent compound annual rate. Spending will rise
from $11.4 billion in 2011 to $12.6 billion in 2016.
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Filmed entertainment | Latin America 337
The expansion of 3-D will continue to stimulate box offce
spending even as the novelty effect wears off.
Favorable demographics and box offce growth will fuel
cinema advertising.
An emerging electronic market will cut into physical home
video growth during the latter part of the forecast period.
New services will expand a nascent electronic market.
Overview
Filmed entertainment spending will rise at a 6.4 percent
compound annual rate to $4.9 billion in 2016 from
Box offce spending will increase from $2.1 billion in 2011
to $3 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of
7.3 percent.
Cinema advertising will grow at a 7.2 percent compound
annual rate to $146 million in 2016 from $103 million
in 2011.
rise from $2.2 billion in 2011 to $3.2 billion in 2016, a
7.3 percent gain compounded annually.
Home video physical sell-through will advance at a
2.5 percent compound annual rate to $847 million in
2016 from $749 million in 2011.
Home video physical rental spending will total $706 million
in 2016, a 4.3 percent increase compounded annually from
Total home video physical spending will increase at a
Electronic home video through TV subscription providers
will increase at a 17.8 percent compound annual rate from
$45 million in 2011 to $102 million in 2016.
An over-the-top/streaming market is developing that will
total an estimated $78 million in 2016.
Total electronic spending will reach $180 million in
2016 from $55 million in 2011, a 26.8 percent increase
Overall home video will average 4.7 percent growth
compounded annually from $1.4 billion in 2011 to
Latin America
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Latin America

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Out-of-home
Box ofce 1,241 1,310 1,608 1,926 2,119 2,292 2,477 2,655 2,836 3,020
Total out-of-home 1,310 1,397 1,698 2,023 2,222 2,402 2,596 2,783 2,972 3,166
Physical home video
Sell-through 634 698 708 725 749 775 801 820 835 847
Rental 621 555 490 542 571 607 637 664 687 706
Total physical
home video 1,255 1,253 1,198 1,267 1,320 1,382 1,438 1,484 1,522 1,553
Through TV
subscription providers 17 25 30 37 45 54 65 79 91 102
Over-the-top/streaming NA NA NA 4 10 17 32 46 61 78
Total electronic home
video 17 25 30 41 55 71 97 125 152 180
Total home video 1,272 1,278 1,228 1,308 1,375 1,453 1,535 1,609 1,674 1,733
Total 2,582 2,675 2,926 3,331 3,597 3,855 4,131 4,392 4,646 4,899
Access additional territory-level commentary. Visit the online
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Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Out-of-home
Box ofce 5.2 5.6 22.7 19.8 10.0 8.2 8.1 7.2 6.8 6.5 7.3
Total out-of-home 5.9 6.6 21.5 19.1 9.8 8.1 8.1 7.2 6.8 6.5 7.3
Physical home video
Sell-through 9.5 10.1 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 2.4 1.8 1.4 2.5
Rental 5.2 10.6 11.7 10.6 5.4 6.3 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.8 4.3
Total physical
home video 1.7 0.2 4.4 5.8 4.2 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.6 2.0 3.3
Through TV
Over-the-top/streaming 150.0 70.0 88.2 43.8 32.6 27.9 50.8
Total electronic
home video 54.5 47.1 20.0 36.7 34.1 29.1 36.6 28.9 21.6 18.4 26.8
Total home video 2.2 0.5 3.9 6.5 5.1 5.7 5.6 4.8 4.0 3.5 4.7
Total 4.0 3.6 9.4 13.8 8.0 7.2 7.2 6.3 5.8 5.4 6.4
Brazil is the largest market, at $1.6 billion in 2011, up
10.4 percent from 2010. Box offce rose 14.1 percent,
while physical home video increased 6.1 percent.
Mexico was the next-largest market, at $1.2 billion, a
5.0 percent increase from 2010, led by a 6.7 percent
increase in box offce spending. Physical home video
increased 1.5 percent.
(US$ millions)
Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 192 214 238 296 308 333 364 394 424 453 8.0
Brazil 1,182 1,185 1,249 1,493 1,648 1,779 1,920 2,043 2,161 2,274 6.7
Chile 137 138 145 147 153 158 166 173 178 183 3.6
Colombia 145 154 179 171 196 211 226 243 259 277 7.2
Mexico 864 908 1,028 1,129 1,186 1,254 1,320 1,388 1,458 1,530 5.2
Venezuela 62 76 87 95 106 120 135 151 166 182 11.4
Total 2,582 2,675 2,926 3,331 3,597 3,855 4,131 4,392 4,646 4,899 6.4
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Box offce
Admissions
The box offce market is being driven by rapid growth in
3-D screens and the ongoing popularity of movies.
The conversion of cinemas to digital and 3-D is proceeding.
In 2011, more than a quarter of Mexicos screens were 3-D,
while 3-D screens constituted 20 percent of total screens in
Brazil and 10 percent in Argentina.
Although still appealing, 3-D releases did not generate as
much revenue in 2011 as they did in 2010. After growing
at double-digit rates in 2009 and 2010, admissions growth
dropped to 2.4 percent in 2011.
Part of the moderation in growth refected unfavorable
comparisons with a very strong 2010. In Argentina,
admissions soared 28.2 percent in 2010. Although
admissions fell 6.7 percent in 2011, they still remained
substantially higher than in 200709.
In Brazil, admissions growth averaged more than
20 percent annually during the past two years, which
made the 5.7 percent increase in 2011 look small.
Similarly, in Mexico, the 1.7 percent increase in 2011 did
not match the large gains in prior years.
As the novelty appeal of 3-D begins to wear off, we expect
more-modest gains in admissions going forward.
We project admissions to expand at a 2.0 percent
compound annual rate to 523 million in 2016 from
473 million in 2011.
Average prices
High infation in Venezuela and Argentina and the increase
in 3-D screens and 3-D admissions led to accelerating
growth in average ticket prices during the past two years.
After increasing at rates averaging less than 4 percent
annually during 200709, the average price increased
8.9 percent in 2010 and 7.4 percent in 2011.
With 3-D providing less of an incremental lift, we expect
price growth to moderate during the next fve years,
averaging 5.2 percent compounded annually to $5.78 in
2016 from $4.48 in 2011.
Box offce spending
Box offce spending rose 10.0 percent in 2011, the third
consecutive double-digit increase.
We project box offce spending to increase at a more
moderate, 7.3 percent compound annual rate from
$2.1 billion in 2011 to $3 billion in 2016.
Mexico and Brazil dominate the market, constituting
77 percent of box offce spending in 2011.

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Box ofce market
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Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 80 95 111 164 168 183 201 219 238 257 8.9
Brazil 444 452 577 750 856 934 1,017 1,092 1,167 1,243 7.7
Chile 71 71 78 79 82 86 90 94 98 100 4.0
Colombia 121 128 151 141 164 176 189 202 215 229 6.9
Mexico 480 515 632 727 776 831 888 946 1,006 1,068 6.6
Venezuela 45 49 59 65 73 82 92 102 112 123 11.0
Total 1,241 1,310 1,608 1,926 2,119 2,292 2,477 2,655 2,836 3,020 7.3
Cinema advertising
Cinema advertising totaled $103 million in 2011, up
6.2 percent from 2010. Brazil is the leading market, at
$42 million in 2011, followed by Venezuela at $28 million
and Argentina at $27 million. We do not have data
for Mexico.
Cinema advertising enables companies to reach young
people who are becoming harder to reach in other
media. Movies also provide a captive environment that
commands the attention of viewers.
Rising admissions and expanding economies will fuel
growth in cinema advertising.
We project cinema advertising to increase to $146 million
in 2016, a 7.2 percent compound annual gain from 2011.
Total out-of-home
Total spending on out-of-home flmed entertainment will
increase from $2.2 billion in 2010 to $3.2 billion in 2016,
growing at a 7.3 percent compound annual rate.
(US$ millions)
Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 19 22 26 26 27 29 32 34 36 39 7.6
Brazil 32 40 37 41 42 42 43 44 45 46 1.8
Chile 3 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9.9
Colombia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 14.9
Mexico NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Venezuela 14 22 23 25 28 33 37 42 47 51 12.7
Total 69 87 90 97 103 110 119 128 136 146 7.2
Sources: Asociacin Argentina de Agencias de Publicidad, Asociacin Chilena de Agencias de Publicidad, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Physical home video
Sell-through
High piracy rates limit legitimate home video spending
in Latin America. Physical sell-through spending totaled
$749 million in 2011, a 3.3 percent increase from 2011.
Brazil and Mexico account for 90 percent of the market,
at $413 million and $262 million, respectively, in 2011.
Physical sell-through in Brazil rose 5.4 percent, while
Mexico increased 0.4 percent.
Improved economic conditions and the emergence of a
Blu-ray market will fuel sell-through spending during the
next fve years.
Currently there is less competition from electronic
platforms than in other regions, but that is changing as
electronic distribution develops. We expect that by the
latter part of the forecast period, competition from an
electronic market will lead to lower gains in physical
sell-through.
Sell-through spending for the forecast period as a whole
will average 2.5 percent compounded annually to
(US$ millions)
Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 3.4
Brazil 299 359 374 392 413 437 461 479 494 506 4.1
Chile 47 48 47 47 48 49 50 51 51 52 1.6
Colombia 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 1.5
Mexico 264 266 262 261 262 263 263 262 261 260 0.2
Venezuela 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.0
Total 634 698 708 725 749 775 801 820 835 847 2.5
Rental
The rental market also is dominated by Brazil and Mexico,
which together generated 80 percent of total spending
in 2011.
Spending rose 5.4 percent in 2011 to $571 million, led by
7.0 percent growth in Brazil, a 3.7 percent gain in Mexico,
and a 3.4 percent increase in Argentina. The rest of the
region was fat.
With economic conditions improving, we expect some-
what faster growth in physical rental spending in 2012.
We then expect moderating gains as a portion of the
market shifts to electronic platforms.
Spending will expand by 4.3 percent compounded
annually to $706 million in 2016.
Total spending on physical home video will reach
$1.6 billion in 2016 from $1.3 billion in 2011, a
3.3 percent increase compounded annually.

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(US$ millions)
Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 79 82 85 88 91 96 101 106 109 112 4.2
Brazil 404 329 255 299 320 344 365 383 398 410 5.1
Chile 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 15 0.0
Colombia 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4.6
Mexico 117 123 129 134 139 145 149 153 157 161 3.0
Venezuela 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 8.4
Total 621 555 490 542 571 607 637 664 687 706 4.3
(US$ millions)
Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 89 92 95 98 102 107 113 118 122 125 4.2
Brazil 703 688 629 691 733 781 826 862 892 916 4.6
Chile 62 63 62 62 63 64 65 66 67 67 1.2
Colombia 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 2.2
Mexico 381 389 391 395 401 408 412 415 418 421 1.0
Venezuela 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4.6
Total 1,255 1,253 1,198 1,267 1,320 1,382 1,438 1,484 1,522 1,553 3.3
Export your own data selections to Excel and PDF. Visit the online
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Consumers can access movies on a video-on-demand basis
through TV subscription providers. The market is limited
by relatively low pay TV penetration, which averaged
38 percent in 2011.
Nevertheless, subscription TV penetration is increasing
and is projected to reach nearly half of all TV households
by 2016.
Telephone companies are entering the market and offer-
ing video-on-demand to attract subscribers. In Argentina,
Telefnica de Argentina and Telecom Argentina launched
video-on-demand services.
We expect these developments to boost spending through
TV subscription providers to $102 million by 2016, a
17.8 percent compound annual increase from $45 million
in 2011.
(US$ millions)
Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20 17.3
Brazil 3 5 6 8 10 12 15 18 21 24 19.1
Chile 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 14.9
Colombia 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 26 13.2
Mexico 3 4 5 7 8 11 13 16 20 23 23.5
Venezuela 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 24.6
Total 17 25 30 37 45 54 65 79 91 102 17.8
An over-the-top/streaming market is emerging in
Latin America that lets consumers purchase flmed
entertainment content over the Internet while bypassing
TV subscription providers.
Brazil had the only meaningful market in 2011, at
$7 million. NetMovies, the leading Internet video-on-
demand company in Brazil, signed a content deal with
Disney, its frst deal with a major studio.
Netfix launched a streaming service in Latin America in
September 2011. Netfix is the leading streaming service
in the United States and expects to gain subscribers in
Latin America.
In Mexico, Maxcom Telecommunication launched an
online service to compete with Netfix, In Argentina,
Comunidad Zoom is a new over-the-top service, and in
Colombia, flmin and Cineplex are teaming up to develop
a streaming service.
We expect these and other launches to generate an over-
the-top/streaming market in the next few years.
We project spending to increase to $78 million in 2016
from only $10 million in 2011.
The total electronic home video market will increase
from $55 million in 2011 to $180 million in 2016, a
26.8 percent compound annual gain.
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(US$ millions)
Latin America 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 1 2 3 5 7 10 12 43.1
Brazil 3 7 10 19 27 36 45 45.1
Chile 1 1 1 2
Colombia 1
Mexico 1 4 7 11 14 18 78.3
Venezuela
Total 4 10 17 32 46 61 78 50.8
Total electronic home video market
(US$ millions)
Latin America 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
201216
CAGR
Argentina 4 5 6 8 11 14 18 23 28 32 23.8
Brazil 3 5 6 11 17 22 34 45 57 69 32.3
Chile 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 8 21.7
Colombia 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 14.0
Mexico 3 4 5 7 9 15 20 27 34 41 35.4
Venezuela 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 24.6
Total 17 25 30 41 55 71 97 125 152 180 26.8
Total home video
The total home video market will increase from
compound annual increase.
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Twelve-month access available for individual
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www.pwc.com/outlook
Filter advertising and consumer
spending data across segments online
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onlineOutlook
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PWC - Filmed Entertainment 2012 - 2016

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