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Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 1 September 2014


Political and security risk updates


Africa: Escalation in conflict highlights rising crossborder threat from !igerian
militants"
Americas: #arina Sil$a%s &third 'ay% gains momentum ahead of Bra(il%s presidential
election"
Asia and Pacific: )alls for Pakistani prime minister to resign as $iolent clashes
continue and army consolidates its position"
Europe: *est 'arns +ussia of heightened economic sanctions follo'ing incursion of
+ussian armed forces into eastern ,kraine"
Middle East: -l!usra .ront holds .i/ian peacekeepers hostage in Syrian side of
0olan 1eights"
Polar regions: )anadian foreign minister $isits !or'ay and 2enmark to promote
-rctic cooperation"
-frica
Escalation in conflict highlights rising cross-border threat from Nigerian
militants
3n recent 'eeks4 the !igerian 3slamist militant group Boko 1aram augmented its
offensi$e from northeast !igeria into the far north of )ameroon4 forcing the
)ameroonian go$ernment to further increase its deployment of soldiers to the area"
On 25 -ugust4 militants carried out a housetohouse raid of the t'in to'ns of
0amboru and !gala4 sei(ing control of the military base and police station and
ultimately the 'hole to'n" 6he offensi$e forced thousands of residents and
!igerian military personnel to flee across the border into )ameroon" 6he militants
then set up operations and occupied d'ellings abandoned by the to'ns%
inhabitants"
On 2527 -ugust4 as Boko 1aram ad$anced into the north of )ameroon near .otokol
in pursuit of the fleeing residents and !igerian military personnel4 )ameroonian
security forces engaged the militants4 killing 28" On 28 -ugust4 Boko 1aram suffered
hea$y casualties as )ameroon%s military increased its operational capacity4 deploying
tanks to .otokol and shelling the militants% camp in 0amboru!gala from across the
border" -lthough a significant number of Boko 1aram fighters 'ere killed4
intelligence suggests that the militants still remain in control of the to'n" Boko
1aram no' appears to control at least three districts in !igeria%s Borno State and a
minimum of one in both 9obe and -dama'a states"
Open Briefing |
3nternational pressure and the palpable ad$ance of Boko 1aram into the north of the country has led the
)ameroonian go$ernment to adopt a more forceful approach by deploying the +apid 3nter$ention
Battalion :B3+; elite army units to the north to support the military and the 0endarmerie !ational already
stationed in that part of the country" 1o'e$er4 it is 'idely alleged that the latter t'o entities are corrupt
and ha$e been ineffectual in halting the ad$ancing militants" 3t is unlikely that the )ameroonian
go$ernment%s limited military inter$ention 'ill ha$e a tangible impact upon the situation in northeast
!igeria4 further than containing Boko 1aram%s ad$ance into )ameroon along the -< high'ay" Should the
militant group continue to attempt to cross into )ameroon4 it is highly likely it 'ill be met 'ith significant
force4 particularly around .otokol4 'ith a corresponding bolstering of )ameroonian forces at key locations
in the E=treme !orth +egion4 such as >imani"
!ther de"elopments
Militants ha"e attacked a high security prison within the national intelligence head#uarters in the
$ondhere district of the %omali capital& Mogadishu' On <1 -ugust4 suicide bombers detonated a $ehicle
loaded 'ith e=plosi$es at the entrance of the !ational 3ntelligence and Security -gency :!3S-;
head?uarters4 'hich houses 0odka @ilico' prison4 before shooting their 'ay into the building" +ebels
e=changed gunfire 'ith Somali !ational -rmy soldiers in an attempt to free /ailed militants from the
prison facility4 though they failed to reach the cells in 'hich the suspected militants 'ere being held"
6hree soldiers and a ci$ilian 'ere killed in the battle along 'ith se$en rebels" 3slamist e=tremist group al
Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the assault"
The prime minister of (esotho& Thomas Thabane& has fled from his official residence after recei"ing
intelligence that he was the target of an assassination attempt amid an apparent military coup on )*
August' 6he leader of 6he -ll Basotho )on$ention :-B);4 'ho4 along 'ith his family4 fled to neighbouring
South -frica4 has accused the military of ousting him" 6he army denied the accusationA ho'e$er4 the
military surrounded the prime ministerBs residence4 disarmed police units and took control of a number of
go$ernment buildings in the capital4 #aseru4 at appro=imately 04C00 :local time; on Saturday" 6habane has
indicated that he 'ill return to >ethoso" 2eputy Prime #inister #othet/oa #etsing4 leader of the coalition
party >esotho )ongress for 2emocracy :>)2;4 is no' running the go$ernment4 though sports minister and
leader of the Basotho !ational Party :B!P; 6hesele #aseribane has accused #etsing of being in$ol$ed in
the coup" +adio stations 'ithin the country ha$e stopped broadcasting"
At least ++ protesters were wounded during two days of clashes with security forces in N,-erekore&
.uinea' +esidents of the country%s second largest city staged riots on 2D and 2E -ugust after 0uinean +ed
)ross medical 'orkers 'ere instructed to spray a chemical saniti(er at a local market area as a
pre$entati$e measure against the spread of Ebola $irus disease :EF2;" #arket traders claim they 'ere not
gi$en prior notice of the intention to sanitise the market4 and rumours spread that the medical 'orkers
had in fact intended to transmit Ebola to the locals by 'ay of the disinfectant spray" 6he medical 'orkers
'ere attacked4 and protesters erected barricades around the city" - group of protesters4 some armed4
descended upon !B(erekoreBs hospital4 and the police and military used tear gas to disperse the cro'ds" -
24hour curfe' 'as subse?uently enforced 'ithin the city on 2E -ugust" -lthough order 'as restored to
the city at the 'eekend4 further $iolence is possible as tensions remain high o$er the go$ernment%s
alleged handling of the spread of Ebola" 0o$ernment efforts are further hampered by the $ie' among
some 0uineans that the Ebola threat is a scam4 'hile others suggest that the $irus has been imported"
Open Briefing | )
!n the radar
Protests possible in Mali on /ndependence 0ay on 22 September"
/ncreased risk of terrorist attack by al-%habaab surrounding the anni"ersary of the 1estgate
Mall attack& 2124 September"
Peaceful protests ha"e been authorised in (ethoso o"er the coming days' Such protests are likely
to turn $iolent if security personnel attempt to disperse demonstrators"
Nigeria celebrates /ndependence 0ay on 1 !ctober& 'hich may present potential targets for Boko
1aram militants"
-mericas
Marina %il"a2s 3third way2 gains momentum ahead of $ra-il2s presidential election
Bra(ilian presidential candidate #arina Sil$a has 'idened her lead o$er President 2ilma +ousseff
according to the latest poll ahead of the country%s election in October" Sil$a took the helm of the Bra(ilian
Socialist Party :PSB; less than t'o 'eeks ago4 after the partyBs original candidate4 Eduardo )ampos4 died in
a plane crash earlier this month" Since then4 she has recei$ed a remarkable surge in support4 'hile
+ousseff%s reputation has been tarnished by the publication of 'eak economic figures" 6he most recent
poll forecasts a tie bet'een +ousseff and Sil$a in the first round of $oting4 'ith a $ictory for Sil$a in an
e$entual second round" Sil$a4 'ho ser$ed as en$ironment minister bet'een 200< and 200D4 contested the
2010 election on the 0reen Party ticket4 and earned nearly 20G of the $ote" 3n 201<4 she launched her o'n
party4 the Sustainability !et'ork4 'hich merged 'ith )ampos% PSB less than a year ago"
6he rise of Sil$a%s &third 'ay% represents a fundamental shift in the country%s political spectrum4 'hich is
currently dominated by the ruling left'ing *orkers% Party :P6; and the centreright Bra(ilian Social
2emocracy :PS2B; party" #any ha$e turned to Sil$a as a protest $ote in the aftermath of the summer 2010
riots4 in 'hich millions of Bra(ilians took to the streets to demonstrate against go$ernment corruption4
poor public ser$ices and o$erspending on the *orld )up and the Olympics" Sil$a is seen as more business
friendly than +ousseff4 e=cept in the area of agribusiness 'here she pushes for more regulations to better
protect the en$ironment" On 2E -ugust4 Sil$a presented her electoral programme centred on the theme
of &direct democracy%" -mong its ma/or proposals4 the manifesto argues for a more autonomous central
bank4 free public transport for students4 and an increase in the share of public funds dedicated to health"
3n spite of Sil$a%s outstanding recent performance4 it remains uncertain if she 'ill be able to maintain her
position as the frontrunner in the upcoming presidential election" 1er party4 the PSB4 remains small in
relation to the ruling P6 and opposition PS2B in terms of both the si(e of its electoral support base and its
financial capacity" 3n addition4 many ?uestion the coherence of the merger bet'een the Sustainability
!et'ork and the PSB4 'hich di$erge 'idely on their political and economic $ie's" But regardless of her
longterm performance4 Sil$a%s candidacy 'ill certainly 'eaken the support base of the PS2B candidate4
-Hcio !e$es"

Open Briefing | 4
!ther de"elopments
A general strike on 5 August blocked most of Argentina2s transport network' 6he strike called by the
country%s ma/or unions 'as particularly 'idespread in the capital4 Buenos -ires4 and impacted maritime4 air
and road traffic" 6he -rgentine go$ernment of President )ristina .ernInde( de Jirchner has until no'
refused to yield to the demands of the opposition unions" 6his is the third general strike faced by
.ernInde( since she took office in 20084 and is the second so far this year"
The 6ene-uelan opposition& 0emocratic 7nity 8oundtable 9M70:& staged a march on 5 August to
protest against the implementation of a new biometric identification system' 3n a struggle to curb the
de$elopment of black markets for the purchase of basic goods4 the administration of President !icolIs
#aduro re$ealed plans to instate a biometric identification system in the country%s ma/or grocery stores"
But the opposition4 highly fragmented4 has lost much of its capacity to mobilise people4 and has until no'
failed to pro$ide a coherent alternati$e"
El %al"ador2s most prominent gangs agreed to resume a truce with the police and the military on ;
August' 6he agreement orders gang members to halt their attacks on police and military officers as a
token of good'ill" 3n 20124 the go$ernment brokered a landmark ceasefire 'ith the $arious criminal
organisationsA but last year4 le$els of $iolence started to increase4 and it is suspected that the ceasefire has
been secretly flouted" Spokesmen for the gangs4 among 'hich are the #S1< and its ri$al4 Dth Street 0ang4
asked the go$ernment to facilitate negotiations in order to further the truce" So far4 President Sal$ador
Sanche( )eren4 'ho took office in @une4 has not yet re$ealed any ne' security measures"
!n the radar
3Peace 1eek2 to take place from < to 14 %eptember in =olombia as part of the ongoing
negotiations bet'een the go$ernment and the .-+)"
Anti-go"ernment protests are likely to continue in 6ene-uela'
/ncreased risk of unrest on the anni"ersary of the 1;<) =hilean coup led by Augusto Pinochet on
11 September"
>urther protests are possible in %t (ouis& 7nited %tates& o"er the shooting of a resident by police'
Protests are no' e=pected to be peaceful"
Nationwide 4-hour teachers2 strike to go ahead on %eptember in 7ruguay o$er demands for
increased 'ages"

Open Briefing | +
-sia and pacific
=alls for Pakistani prime minister to resign as "iolent clashes continue and army consolidates its
position
-t least eight people ha$e been killed and around <00 in/ured o$er the 'eekend in Pakistan%s capital4
3slamabad4 during ongoing clashes bet'een security forces and supporters of the Pakistan 6ehrike3nsaf
:P63; and Pakistan -'ami 6ehreek :P-6; political parties" 6housands of protesters breached security
barriers outside the national assembly building and descended upon the pri$ate residence of Prime
#inister !a'a( Sharif in 2)ho'k in the capital%s highsecurity +ed Kone4 demanding his resignation o$er
allegations of electoral fraud and corruption" Protests ha$e also occurred in 0u/ran'ala4 >ahore4
.aisalabad4 Sukkur4 #ultan and Sialkot in Pun/ab pro$ince and Jarachi and 1yderabad in Sindh pro$ince4
though these are on a smaller scale than the unrest in 3slamabad"
-rmy chief 0eneral +aheel Sharif has re?uested 24 hours to establish a solution to the current turmoilA
ho'e$er4 protesters continue to launch stones and brandish batons at police 'ho are attempting to
suppress the cro'ds 'ith rubber bullets and tear gas :though they ha$e since been ordered not to fire in a
bid to a$ert further in/ury to protestors;" Sharif has called for further negotiations 'ith the supporters
loyal to 3mran Jhan4 leader of the P634 and 2r 6ahirul Ladri4 leader of the P-6" 1o'e$er4 it is unlikely that
the opposition leaders 'ill back do'n unless the prime minister resigns4 and they ha$e subse?uently
called for their follo'ers to continue to assemble at Sharif%s residence" Protesters also stormed the P6F
net'ork broadcasting building4 temporarily forcing operations to ceaseA ho'e$er4 broadcast ser$ices ha$e
since recommenced"
Since the beginning of the recent unrest4 it has been 'idely speculated that the military has been co$ertly
assisting the protest groups4 and many belie$e that the army intends to use the political crisis to reassert
its dominance o$er the ci$ilian go$ernment" 6heir stance as the final mediator during the current unrest
'ill add strength to such con/ecture" 6ensions bet'een the military and go$ernment ha$e been mounting
in recent months4 notably since the prime minister blocked attempts by former military ruler Per$e(
#usharraf4 'hom faces charges of treason4 to lea$e Pakistan" -uthorities continue to restrict access to the
capital%s +ed Kone4 and it is likely that the go$ernment 'ill shut do'n mobile phone ser$ices to pre$ent
protesters from communicating and gathering further momentum" 1o'e$er4 other opposition groups
ha$e threatened to /oin the protests if the police continue to employ force against protesters4 'hich
'ould likely result in further $iolence"
!ther de"elopments
!n 5 August& a court in Thailand dismissed the murder charges brought against former prime
minister and current leader of the 0emocrat Party& Abhisit 6e??a?i"a' -bhisit 'as facing the charges for
his in$ol$ement in a crackdo'n on demonstrators 'ho 'ere part of the red shirts antigo$ernment
mo$ement o$er the course of 10 'eeks during 2010" 6he crackdo'n by security forces resulted in the
deaths of more than E0 people4 most of 'hich 'ere ci$ilians" -bhisit 'as originally charged during the
pre$ious caretaker go$ernment4 'hich 'as ousted in the #ay 2014 military coup"

Open Briefing | @
The Aapanese defence ministry has re#uested its largest budget in post-war Aapanese history amid
tensions with =hina o"er disputed territory in the East =hina %ea' 6he ministry has re?uested 5"05
trillion yen4 e?ui$alent to M4D"8 billion4 for the year N an increase of <"5G on last year" Should the re?uest
be appro$ed4 it 'ill mark the third consecuti$e year that the @apanese defence budget has been increased
follo'ing a decade of cuts"
ApproBimately +** Nepalese migrant workers went on strike on @ August in Aohor state& Malaysia&
o"er poor working conditions' 6he strike rapidly escalated into a riot and turned $iolent after
negotiations 'ith management failed and protesters began to set fire to an electronics factory and
physically attacked its officers" -ppro=imately 125 #alaysian riot police 'ere deployed to the site and
responded 'ith 'ater cannons and tear gas4 subse?uently arresting 44 of the 'orkers"
!n the radar
TaBi dri"ers in Colkata& /ndia& threaten to stage an indefinite strike from < September"
/ncreased security measures are to be eBpected at Ninoy A#uino /nternational Airport in the
Philippines after a car bomb 'as disco$ered in a car park"
Pro-democracy group !ccupy =entral with (o"e and Peace threaten to launch a series of
protests in Dong Cong o$er the ne=t month"
Europe
1est warns 8ussia of heightened economic sanctions following incursion of 8ussian armed forces
into eastern 7kraine
6ensions bet'een the *est and +ussia further escalated last 'eek" .ollo'ing the capture of +ussian
armed forces personnel operating in eastern ,kraine by the ,krainian armed forces4 *estern leaders ha$e
accused +ussia of a dangerous breach of international la'4 and ha$e 'arned of a notably increase in the
se$erity of the economic sanctions imposed upon +ussia by the European ,nion" On 2E -ugust4 !-6O
Secretary 0eneral -nders .ogh +asmussen publicly asserted that +ussia 'as continuing to supply arms
and resources to pro+ussian rebels and that +ussian military operations ha$e been conducted inside
,krainian territory" 3n response4 +ussia has continued to ardently deny arming the separatists or that
+ussian forces are supporting rebels in eastern ,kraine" +ussia instead accuses the ,krainian go$ernment
of acts of aggressions and the deliberate targeting of ci$ilians"
6he presence of +ussian troops in ,krainian territory is an undoubted breach of international la'4 and
represents a contra$ention of the nonbinding 1elsinki -ccords4 'hich recognise the in$iolability of
frontiers and the territorial integrity of states" >ast 'eek4 !-6O reported that +ussia had supplied tanks4
armoured $ehicles4 rocket launchers and artillery to the rebels in eastern ,kraine" 6he British go$ernment
has also asserted that 100 +ussian tanks and o$er 14000 +ussian troops ha$e crossed into ,kraine to date"
*hile it is almost certain that the upscaling of +ussian in$ol$ement in eastern ,kraine 'ill result in the
imposition of tougher sanctioning from the European ,nion4 critics4 such as 2utch Prime #inister #ark
+utte4 ha$e argued that the current sanctions imposed on +ussia ha$e so far failed to halt the escalation
of the crisis" Pro+ussian separatists are no' gaining ground in the confrontation 'ith the ,krainian
armed forces4 and the opening of a ne' front around !o$oa(ok to the south has been 'idely attributed to
+ussian inter$ention in the conflict"
Open Briefing | <
>ast 'eek4 ,krainian Prime #inister -rseny 9atseniuk announced that ,kraine 'ould seek the protection
of !-6O membership follo'ing the open in$ol$ement of the +ussian military inside its so$ereign territory4
and called for increased military assistance in dealing 'ith rebel forces" 1o'e$er4 the ,krainian
membership of !-6O4 gi$ing ,kraine the full protection of a mutual defence pact amongst !-6O
members4 'ould be a significant escalation in political tensions bet'een +ussia and the *est4 and is highly
unlikely at present" *hilst ,kraine is currently unlikely to recei$e significant military assistance from
!-6O4 *estern countries 'ill continue to impose increasing economics costs on +ussia for its actions"
.urthermore4 through a bolstering of troop presence in Baltic member states it is clear that !-6O intends
to demonstrate to +ussia that such $iolations of territory 'ill not be tolerated 'ithin !-6O member
states"
!ther de"elopments
!n ; August& the Aoint Terrorism Analysis =entre raised the terror threat le"el in the 7nited
Cingdom from substantial to se"ere E the 7C2s second highest threat le"el' Prime #inister 2a$id
)ameron announced that the go$ernment 'ould introduce ne' la's to restrict British citi(ens from
tra$elling to Syria and 3ra? and to confiscate the passports of Britons seeking to tra$el to the #iddle East
to fight 'ith the 3slamic State" 1ome Secretary 6heresa #ay defended the decision to raise the threat
le$el as a response to de$elopments in 3ra? and Syria and the significant number of British citi(ens fighting
in these conflicts"
>rench Prime Minister Manuel 6alls reshuffled his cabinet on @ August& dismissing ministers who
openly criticised President >ranFois Dollande for his economic policies' 1a$ing publicly rallied against
the austere nature of go$ernment policies4 economic #inister -rnaud #ontebourg 'as remo$ed and
replaced by Emmanuel #acron4 'hile the education minister4 Benoit 1amon4 and the culture minister4
-urelie .ilipetti4 'ere also remo$ed from office due to their support for #ontebourg" 1ollande is
attempting to pull .rance out of stagnation and steer the country to'ards gro'thA ho'e$er4 some of his
policies ha$e been too right'ing for some socialist supporters and party members4 including his plan to
cut O50 billion in state spending by 2018"
!n 5 August& 8ecep Tayyip ErdoGan was sworn in as Turkish president during a ceremony in the
capital& Ankara& after winning the presidential election on 1* August with +H of the "ote' 6he
former prime minister has e=tended his time in po'er to o$er a decade and ErdoPan has made clear that
he seeks to e=ercise e=ecuti$e po'er in his ne' position" Pre$ious presidents ha$e performed a largely
ceremonial role4 and critics 'arn that ErdoPan may seek to amend the constitution to the ad$antage of
the presidential position"
!n the radar
>oreign Affairs =ommittee MEPs will discuss recent de"elopments in %yria& /ra#& (ibya& .a-a and
7kraine on 2 September"
E72s agriculture and international trade committees will discuss E7-8ussia trade in light of the
8ussian import ban on E7 food on <4 September"
The E7 high representati"e for foreign affairs will address the annual conference of E7 heads of
delegations in Brussels4 Belgium4 on 1 September"
NAT! summit will be held in Newport& 1ales& on 45 September"
Open Briefing | 5
#iddle East
Al-Nusra >ront holds >i?ian peacekeepers hostage in %yrian side of .olan Deights
6he alLaedaaffiliated al!usra .ront ha$e captured 44 .i/ian peacekeepers during fighting bet'een
rebels and forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar -ssad o$er control of the border crossing bet'een the
Syrian and 3sraelicontrolled parts of the 0olan 1eights" 3nsurgents also surrounded t'o ,!
encampments occupied by .ilipino peacekeepers4 'ho fought back in selfdefence and e$entually
managed to escape" 6he peacekeepers are members of the ,! 2isengagement Obser$er .orces :,!2O.;4
a body that has been operating in the 0olan 1eights to uphold a negotiated ceasefire bet'een 3sraeli and
Syrian forces since 1E84" 6he 'hereabouts of the .i/ian peacekeepers is currently unkno'nA ho'e$er4 they
are currently belie$ed to be in good health4 and ha$e sustained no casualties"
3n a statement released on social media4 an al!usra spokesperson announced the capture of
peacekeepers 'as for the lack of ,! in$ol$ement in the Syrian crisis and the percei$ed support of the
,nited !ations and the international community for al-ssadBs regime" 6he latest incident in the 0olan
1eights has seen the 'ithdra'al of the Philippines4 -ustria4 @apan and )roatia from the ,!2O. operation
amid concerns of the rapidly deteriorating security situation" Farious rebel groups and militias ha$e been
engaged in a conflict 'ithin the region that has ad$anced to'ards the Luneitra crossing4 marking the
di$ision of Syrian and 3sraelicontrolled territories"
*hilst it is not e=pected that the al!usra .ront or other militias along the border 'ill attempt to launch
offensi$es against 3srael4 the 3sraeli 2efence .orce are obser$ing de$elopments 'ith caution and ha$e
raised their domestic threat le$el" 6he latest clashes ser$e to highlight the continued difficulties 'ith the
Syrian conflict and its regional spillo$er" #oreo$er4 the international stature of the hostages 'ould
indicate that the alLaedaaffiliated al!usra front is attempting to distinguish themsel$es4 and their
agendas4 from the 3slamic State :3S3S;" Separately4 on <0 -ugust4 the al!usra .ront released four >ebanese
soldiers and one police officer held capti$e by the group"
!ther de"elopments
A long-term /sraeli-Palestinian ceasefire began on @ August' 6he truce has been brokered by Egypt to
last a minimum of se$en 'eeks4 bringing a close to 50 days of conflict that has claimed the li$es of at least
24200 people" ,nder the deal4 3srael 'ill allo' relief aid and de$elopment supplies into 0a(a in an attempt
to relie$e humanitarian pressures" 3n return4 1amas 'ill cease its rocket fire and crossborder attacks on
3srael" 1o'e$er4 peace remains fragile4 and a number of salient issues are yet to be addressedC 1amas is
yet to demilitarise4 a key demand of 3srael4 and 3srael is yet to lift the siege on 0a(a by allo'ing access to
air'ays and seaports4 an issue of contention for 1amas and the Palestinian -uthority" !egotiations are
e=pected to continue in )airo4 Egypt4 in the follo'ing 'eeksA ho'e$er4 until such issues are addressed and
acceptable compromises are met4 the prospects of securing any sustained peace 'ill remain poor"

Open Briefing | ;
!n )1 August& the /ra#i Army has reclaimed the town of Amerli in northern /ra# following a two-
month siege by the /slamic %tate 9/%/%:" 6he operation began the pre$ious day as a collaborati$e effort
bet'een the 3ra?i -rmy4 Shia militias and Jurdish Peshmerga forces" 6he offensi$e 'as supported by
limited ,S airstrikes4 follo'ed by airdrops of humanitarian aid" Shia 6urkmen in the to'n ha$e been denied
access to food and 'ater by 3S3S fighters" 6he success of -merli is the first of the current counter
offensi$es to take place 'ithin Sunni strongholds" 6he ,nited States continues to support 3ra?i Jurdish
fighters by air in their battle against 3S3SA ho'e$er4 as ground battles enter residential (ones the ,nited
StatesB it is unclear 'hether this support 'ill continue" !onetheless4 the international community remains
committed to the support of Jurdish fighters4 and -ustralia announced the deli$ery of arms and munitions
to the group on <1 -ugust"
Tens of thousands of Iemen2s %hia and Douthi supporters took to the streets of the capital& %anaa&
on ; August to protest against the %unni go"ernment& demanding the resignation of Prime #inister
#ohammed Basinda'a" Separately4 t'o leaders of the go$ernmentBs Popular )ongress Party 'ere
assassinated in the countryBs southern >ahi/ pro$ince" -lthough no group has claimed responsibility for the
killings4 the strategic port and mountainous areas of >ahi/ are alLaeda in the -rabian Peninsula
strongholds" 3n an unprecedented mo$e4 the ,! Security )ouncil has called on rebel groups to disperse
and laydo'n their arms4 threatening international sanctions :authorised in .ebruary; on those obstructing
the countryBs political transition" 1outhi rebels played a central role in deposing the country%s former
dictator4 -li -ndullah Saleh4 in 2012 after a year of mass demonstrations and $iolence" )lashes are likely to
continue in the impo$erished state as the countryBs leadership struggles to contain northern 1outhi
factions4 southern separatists and alLaeda militants operating 'ithin their borders"
!n the radar
/ranian >oreign Minister Mohammad Aa"ad Jarif to "isit $russels to meet 'ith chief negotiators for
the ne=t round of 6ehranBs nuclear talks on 1 September"
$ahrain,s Prince Al Chalifa and 7nited Arab Emirates President Chalifa bin Jayed Al Nahyan
eBpected to attend the NAT! %ummit in !e'port4 *ales4 from 45 September"
Afghan election audit has been eBtended to 1* %eptember& a further eight days beyond the original
2 September deadline"
Egyptian President Abdel >attah Al-%issi to "isit the 7N .eneral Assembly in !e' 9ork for the
first time on 25 September"

Open Briefing | 1*
Polar regions
=anadian foreign minister "isits Norway and 0enmark to promote Arctic cooperation
)anada%s foreign minister4 @ohn Baird4 has $isited !or'ay and 2enmark in a bid to promote -rctic
cooperation" 6his came as Baird $isited !or'ay4 2enmark and -ustria during 2228 -ugust in order to
ad$ance a number of )anada%s foreign policy priorities4 including strengthening international security4
promoting -rctic cooperation and building opportunities for trade and in$estment 'ith Europe" 3n a press
release prior to his $isit4 Baird e=pressed the importance of the -rctic to both )anadian identity and future
prosperity4 and stated that )anada aims to 'ork closely 'ith European -rctic states4 such as !or'ay and
2enmark4 to nurture peaceful multilateral relations and protect )anada%s northern interests"
6he $isit is significant4 gi$en the notable political animosity bet'een )anada and +ussia due to
o$erlapping geographical -rctic claims4 and the recent )anadian distain to'ards +ussian foreign policy in
,kraine" *ith +ussian President Fladimir Putin recently asserting +ussia%s intention to strengthen its
position in the -rctic 'ith a rene'ed focus upon polar de$elopment initiati$es4 Baird%s calls to promote
and defend )anadian interests in the region play strongly to the gro'ing dichotomy bet'een +ussia and
the *est" -s antagonistic rhetoric bet'een +ussia and )anada becomes increasingly pre$alent4 concerns
o$er a standoff o$er the -rctic are becoming increasingly legitimate"
0i$en the -rctic region%s increasing importance due to its significant natural resource reser$es :the -rctic
)ircle contains 15G of the 'orldBs oil4 and <0G of its gas reser$es;4 strategic diplomatic missions such as
Baird%s 'ill become e$er more important as indicators of alliance building in order to bolster preparedness
for future disputes in the region" .urthermore4 gi$en )hina%s e=pressed interest in the region%s shorter
Pacific-tlantic trade routes and Bei/ing%s gro'ing diplomatic influence in the region4 the issue of -rctic
alliance building is becoming an increasingly global issue" .ollo'ing a /oint statement bet'een Putin and
)hinese President Qi @inping in #ay declaring a partnership bet'een +ussia and )hina in relation to the
-rctic4 )hinese $essels no' regularly na$igate the !orthern Sea +oute" 6he formation of such strategic
alliances is illustrati$e of the gro'ing di$ision bet'een +ussia and the *estern po'ers of the -rctic
)ouncil"
!ther de"elopments
Aapan is "ying to return to the %outhern !cean to recommence its whaling acti"ities& despite the
interdiction of Aapan2s research whaling program by the /nternational =ourt of Austice 9/=A: in March'
@apan%s fisheries minister4 9oshimasa 1ayashi4 has stated that the country 'ill be submitting plans for a
ne' research pro/ect4 to take place during the 201517 hunting season4 to the 3nternational *haling
)ommission in September" @apanese 'haling is condemned by the -ustralian go$ernment4 'ho originally
brought the case to the 3)@ in #arch" .urthermore4 proacti$e !0Os4 such as the Sea Shepherd
)onser$ation Society and 0reenpeace4 ha$e regularly participated in hostile engagements against the
@apanese 'haling fleet in the Southern Ocean4 lea$ing numerous $essels damaged many miles from aid"

Open Briefing | 11
>innish en"ironment minister 6ille NiinistK has stated concerns o"er plans to in"ol"e 8ussian state
nuclear company 8osatom in the planned construction of a nuclear power plant in PyhL?oki& south of
!ulu in northern >inland' !iinistR has asserted that .inland should be aiming to reduce its dependence
on +ussian energy4 in line 'ith efforts from the rest of the European ,nion" +eferencing the +ussian
regulation of natural gas deli$eries to ,kraine4 !iinistR maintains that .inland should follo' the )(ech
+epublic e=ample and decline +osatom in$ol$ement" !iinistR%s comments come as Britain also re
e$aluates its nuclear cooperation agreement 'ith +osatom"
The ice-monitoring probe =ryo%at- launched by the European %pace Agency has produced data
regarding the rate of ice "olume loss in both Antarctica and .reenland that has stunned researchers'
3ce sheets in *estern -ntarctica and the -ntarctic Peninsula are said to be rapidly losing $olume4 'ith
similar concerns in 0reenland :affecting the @akobsha$n glacier in particular;" )yrosat scientists ha$e
/udged this data as e$idence of climate change and the gro'ing impact of human emissions" 6he surprising
speed at 'hich the ice is receding is highly likely to generate gro'th in the e=ploration of pre$iously
untapped natural resources4 and greatly increase transit operations along pre$iously challenging maritime
trade routes"
!n the radar
%ulphur dioBide pollution from Cola .MC2s nickel smelting facilities in Nikel and
Monchegorsk& 8ussia& is significantly increasing'
The first Arctic Economic =ouncil meeting is to take place in /#aluit& =anada& from
%eptember& and 'ill include Scandina$ian4 +ussian and -laskan business representati$es"
Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www'bradburys'co'uk
Open Briefing is the 'orld%s first ci$il society intelligence agency"
*e produce actionable and predicti$e intelligence on defence4 security and foreign policy matters" *e tell
you 'hat has happened and 'hat is likely to happen ne=t" #ost importantly4 'e tell you 'hy"
*e do this so that better informed citi(ens can more effecti$ely engage in peace and security debates and
ci$il society organisations can make the right ad$ocacy choices" 6ogether4 'e can influence positi$e policy
decisions by our go$ernments"
Open Briefing is a bold and ambitious notforprofit social enterprise" *e are a uni?ue collaboration of
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)hallenge the status ?uo" 6ake intelligence into your o'n hands"
www'openbriefing'org


Analysts: )hris -bbott4 2erek )rystal4 +oger #arshall4 6ancrSde .euillade4 +obert 6asker4 )laudia *agner4
Sophie 6aylor"

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